Shifting The Motivations Of The Populace From Production To Speculation
A weekend topic starting with the Pagosa Daily Post. “As Colorado policymakers step up their efforts to address the state’s housing shortage, they’re encountering a similar problem: Colorado’s housing market, and the state and local policies that shape it, don’t always behave like they should. Nearly everyone agrees that it costs too much to buy or rent a home in Colorado these days. So why has it proved so difficult for state and local governments to simply pass measures that will increase the supply of housing? The answer, in large part, is the dark matter of housing politics — a truth that is rarely if ever directly acknowledged in legislative hearings or news stories but exerts a powerful influence on the policy outcomes we have been able to see. The truth is that for many Coloradans, the housing affordability crisis hasn’t been a crisis at all. It’s been a bonanza.”
“The total market value of all residential property in Colorado more than doubled over the last decade, from $483 billion in 2013 to well over $1 trillion today according to state data. Only a small portion of that increase came from the 300,000 or so units of new housing stock built during that period. The rest — an astounding windfall of nearly $500 billion in new wealth — simply accrued to the homeowners, landlords, lenders and investors who owned the state’s other 2.3 million housing units.”
CBS Boston in Massachusetts. “If you have been avoiding pricey Cape Cod rentals in the past then this may be your year to take a vacation. Prices have been dropping the last few years, and that trend is expected to continue. Cape Cod is teeming with rental properties. The Cape Cod Chamber of Commerce says there are more than 18,000 short-term rental properties on the Cape. They say that sum is more than in New York City. Part of the reason for the spike is COVID. People fled to the Cape and bought homes to escape pandemic lockdowns, but now that COVID has slowed down, and the Chamber says more people are renting or selling. This is increasing inventory and helping the price go down.”
“Desiree Antonio owns two properties. ‘That [Sandwich] one books really fast and has the last couple of years. This newer property, we have only had it just a few months. It’s not booking as fast, even though they have had some activity. That’s probably due to saturation in the market and economy,’ explains Antonio.”
The Tampa Bay Times. “Marley Price’s boyfriend likes to play video games in his spare time. She prefers to find potentially illegal short-term rentals and report them to code enforcement. Price, 27, has made a hobby out of reporting potential violators to St. Petersburg Code Compliance. She has filed at least 108 complaints since starting this work two months ago. According to the city, 88 of those properties reported by Price have received violation notices. ‘It’s not fun that I have to deal with that because the city doesn’t want to enforce their own codes. But I just feel like if not me, who?’ Price told the Tampa Bay Times. Price began filing complaints in February after her long-term neighbor died and his home was sold. She said a California couple bought the Disston Heights home and flipped it into a rental listed for $350 a night.”
From News4JAX. “A report released by the Northeast Florida Association of Realtors came with equal doses of good news and bad news. Housing became less affordable in St. Johns, Clay and Baker counties while it actually became more affordable to live in Nassau. Some News4JAX viewers are feeling the financial pinch. ‘I am a mother of 3, bought my home in 2022 and the property taxes and insurance has gone up so much I am currently facing foreclosure. I am a current Florida National Guard member and can’t make enough to keep up,’ one viewer wrote.”
Palo Alto Online in California. “Unfazed by fluctuations in mortgage rates, our local housing market is bustling. This year has seen a bump in inventory, attributed to the release of pent-up supply from 2023. Notable spikes in new listings have been observed across the board during the first quarter of this year: Palo Alto witnessed a 28% increase, Menlo Park soared by 38%, and Los Altos took the lead with an impressive 50% rise in new listings across single-family homes, townhomes and condos. A recent sale in Palo Alto exemplifies this upward trend in housing prices: A property in the city’s Professorville neighborhood, bought by the seller a year ago, was recently sold with a 16% markup. While this delights sellers, it’s also forcing buyers to quickly recalibrate their price expectations in this cutthroat market. Although the current median price remains 14% lower than the peak recorded two years ago, it’s poised to keep climbing as the spring season progresses.”
“Despite the fervor surrounding the housing market, approximately 30% of homes are struggling to find buyers. These lingering listings often fall into the high-end segment priced above $10 million or those labeled as ‘projects,’ requiring substantial renovations or complete rebuilds. Homes in the the ‘hot spot’ segment priced below $5 million that remain unsold are typically over-priced, missing the initial sale window.”
CBS Sacramento. “With major insurance companies announcing they would not renew California home insurance policies, some people in El Dorado County were left scrambling. Many community members said they’ve either been dropped from their policy altogether or they can’t afford the price anymore. ‘It just keeps climbing, and, I mean, it’s becoming a crisis,’ George Osborne, Camino resident, said.He said fire insurance has been an issue he has dealt with since the Camp Fire. ‘We had Farmers and then we went to Merced and Merced went bankrupt in Paradise. They had an oversubscribed amount of people, I guess,’ Osborne said. ‘We’ve got great neighbors, but it’s just becoming too much.'”
“Even if people end up wanting to sell their homes, longtime Pollock Pines realtor Bill Buetow said it may not be that simple. ‘Deals will drop out if you can’t qualify. The way you qualify now for buying a home, you have to submit a bid, an insurance bid, and they’ll take that into consideration,’ Buetow said.”
The Times Colonist in Canada. “Victoria’s Angela Mason joined a civil suit battling the province’s new short-term rental restrictions because she is ’devastated’ by the negative impact on her property-management business and on her personal unit in a historic downtown building. She predicts her entire income will evaporate under the new rules, slated to come into effect May 1. Mason runs Amala Vacation Rental Solutions Ltd. with Ryan Sawatsky, where client numbers have plummeted from 90 in the city’s downtown to fewer than 30. Their staff numbers have shrunk from 36, and Mason anticipates that the business will decline further. Her clients do not own multiple properties but have one unit for short-term rentals advertised on online platforms such as Airbnb, Mason said Friday. They typically hold the unit as an investment and it might be a retirement property, she said.”
“Mason, for example, said she cannot afford to buy a house so she rents a house for her family. In summer 2023, she bought a 500-square-foot studio condominium in the former Oriental Hotel in the 500 block of Yates Street to use as a short-term rental, as was legally allowed. It was to be an investment for her future. It’s a ‘cool space’ with skylights, but has no storage, Mason said. She said her legal right to rent the unit is being taken away. ‘I’ve done everything right. Nothing illegally.’ Asked where her income will come from in the future, she laughed ruefully and said: ‘That’s a great question.'”
The Courier Press. “Stubbornly high housing prices are one of the main reasons for the steep drop in young Canadians’ ‘sense of hopefulness,’ according to Statistics Canada. Given the state of the market, their hope seems unlikely be buoyed anytime soon. Last year, interest rates were the highest they have been in 22 years and inflationary pressures, especially shelter costs, remain strong. Together, inflation and interest rates are eroding Canadians’ purchasing power. Already, one in three mortgage-holders has been forced to stretch their amortization period beyond the standard 25 years, which means paying off the mortgage years later at higher cost. And longer amortizations contribute to higher housing prices, according to the Office of the Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI), Canada’s banking regulator.”
“To address the crisis, the Department of Finance should investigate whether Canada’s banks along with Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC), the agency that guarantees Canadian mortgages, are sufficiently buffered to offer longer-term fixed rates than the conventional five-year term held by most homeowners. With interest and monthly payments renegotiated every five years, what Canadian banks call a ‘fixed-rate mortgage’ is really a variable rate loan with five-year resets. This provides much less risk protection than a long-term loan in which the interest rate and payment remain fixed for the life of the loan, which is the norm in the U.S.”
“The evolution of the 30-year mortgage in the U.S. began as one of the major interventions following the Great Depression, in which mortgage terms as short as one-year and fully repayable had created an avalanche of foreclosures. New Deal laws allowed funding for residential construction companies that also acted as lenders. Mortgages became collateral and were sold to investors as securities. By 1938, policy led to the creation of Fannie Mae (the Federal National Mortgage Association). As a government-sponsored agency it performs three functions. It buys up mortgages from the banks, freeing their capital and allowing them to pursue more mortgage sales; it bundles mortgages and sells them to investors; and it guarantees mortgages against default. Over the years, fixed mortgage terms stretched to 10 and 15 years.”
“In 1968, the Johnson administration re-organized Fannie Mae as a shareholder-owned, government-backed company. This led to the dominance of the 30-year mortgage. Today, more than 90 per cent of U.S. homeowners choose 30-year mortgages. Fixed rates over such a long term protect homeowners against future rate hikes, while also allowing refinancing if interest rates drop. When interest rate risk is assumed by more sophisticated mortgage buyers and investors who can hedge against market fluctuations, 30-year mortgages can stabilize a country’s financial markets.”
“Several reasons are commonly cited for why Canadian banks don’t extend loan periods beyond five years. First, banks’ retail deposits remain their core mortgage funding source. But only deposits with maturities of up to five years qualify for deposit insurance. To persuade depositors to accept longer deposit terms, banks would need to offer higher interest rates. These added costs would inevitably be passed on to borrowers. To balance a creditor’s assets and liabilities, argue the banks, a five-year term is needed. And Canadian banks don’t have the privatized government-sponsored enterprises (GSEs) like Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation) to securitize the country’s mortgages.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “The federal Liberals capped off a run of prebudget housing announcements with new pledges on Friday, including plans to crack down on mortgage and real estate fraud, to restrict the purchase of single-family homes by large, corporate investors and to provide low-interest loans of up to $40,000 for secondary suites. On Thursday, the government made announcements specifically aimed at new homebuyers, with a plan to allow 30-year amortizations – up from 25 years – for insured mortgages on newly built homes. Ottawa said extending the amortization limit for insured mortgages – those made with a down payment less than 20 per cent of the property’s purchase price – in these circumstances will enable more young Canadians to afford a monthly mortgage payment and will encourage new supply.”
“The government also said Thursday, without providing much in the way of details, that it will allow some existing borrowers to permanently extend their amortization period so that they can reduce their monthly mortgage payment to a level they can afford.”
“However, the CMHC and others have warned that longer amortizations could stoke housing demand and spur higher prices. Ottawa has already taken a number of steps to keep mortgage defaults at bay, such as pushing lenders to lower distressed borrowers’ payments with amortization extensions. This pushes default risk into the future.”
From Mises.org. “Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, and the Congressional Progressive Caucus recently sent an open letter to the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, demanding lower interest rates. The letter is full of the economic illiteracy one would expect from progressives, especially those in Congress. For example, it misreads price inflation data and argues that the failure to lower interest rates endangers home affordability and increases income inequality. These assertions are false and easily disproven.”
“Artificially low interest rates lead to more of the same economic sickness—malinvestment, bloated government and personal debt, and a never-ending cycle of boom and bust that enriches the political class while impoverishing the average American. Congressional progressives state that homeownership is becoming unaffordable due to ‘persistently high interest rates.’ This is backward, like saying the overweight got that way by taking too many walks. While focusing on today’s slightly higher mortgage rates, progressives ignore what low interest rates do to home prices in the first place. Artificially low rates increase home prices, and pushing rates near zero, as the Fed did in 2020, increases home prices substantially.”
“In the last ten years, the Case-Shiller US National Home Price Index has doubled, a 7.2 percent annual rate of increase. Since wages have risen at a much-slower rate, affordability has plummeted. The ratio of the average home price to median household income has increased from roughly 3.5x in 2010 to more than 5.5x today. Both of these factors—slow real wage growth and higher home prices—are a direct result of artificially low interest rates. The progressive caucus has been conspicuously silent about this phenomenon despite their rhetoric in support of the working class.”
“As interest rates are suppressed, finance and adjacent industries crowd out honest endeavors, savings collapse, and psychological energy builds up in speculation as opposed to productive effort. Over time, this results in economic sclerosis—a drastic misallocation of resources marked by a rigid economy unable to grow, innovate, and adapt.”
“Very low interest rates benefit the wealthy and their financiers, who have access to credit and capital, while harming savers, the proverbial widows and orphans. The average American is thus harmed in two ways—things get more expensive, and earning a return on savings gets more difficult. In order to compensate for this lack of safe interest-bearing options, the average American is forced to ‘stretch for yield’ through speculation. This set of factors increases their risk of capital loss and puts them further into debt. As it stands, Americans are more in debt than ever before and less capable of pulling themselves out of it.”
“Progressives want low interest rates for the same reasons Republicans want them—to grease the skids for more asset bubbles and greater government spending that enriches them and their donors. As Murray Rothbard pointed out, ‘There is nothing more important to a bureaucrat and his organization than their income.’ However, low interest rates and asset bubbles don’t make nations richer. They simply move value from the future to the present, thus reducing future investment returns, depressing investment activity, and shifting the motivations of the populace from production to speculation.”
“Economist Frédéric Bastiat said that bad economists pursue small current benefits for large future disadvantages while good economists pursue large future benefits at the expense of small disadvantages in the near-term. Progressives in Congress are not just bad economists, they’re bad liars too.”
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You will own nothing.
NOTHING.
“The progressive caucus has been conspicuously silent about this phenomenon despite their rhetoric in support of the working class”
KDVR (4/12/2024):
“Colorado is one of the worst states in the nation for homebuyers looking for a starter home, according to a recent study.
The study by Construction Coverage used data from Zillow, Redfin, Freddie Mac and the U.S. Census Bureau to find the best places to buy a starter home across the country.
The researchers ranked Colorado as the second-worst state for buyers looking for a starter home. And out of 55 large U.S. metro areas, the Denver-Aurora-Lakewood metro area ranked the fifth-worst for buying a starter home.
The estimated monthly mortgage payment for a typical starter home in the Centennial State demands 50% of the median renter income. The same statistic was under 40% in over half of the states, with a national average of 39.8%.
The only state with a worse overall ranking for starter homes was California.”
https://kdvr.com/news/data/colorado-cities-among-worst-for-starter-homes/
Second only to California?
One party state government (You Know Who) seems to do this in every state it governs.
Colorado is a failed state.
One party state government (You Know Who) seems to do this in every state it governs.
And the sheeple keep voting for them, though there are some exceptions.
Last year in my little burg we voted to repeal the sales tax on groceries. The city is now whining that it can’t make ends meets and is now reprioritizing spending.
Similar measures failed to pass in prior elections, but this time a hefty majority said yes. I think that ever rising bills at the grocery store did the trick this time.
My congressional district does vote R, though we have a history of RINOs like the recently resigned Ken Buck. Lauren Boebert, who moved to my district, is likely to be the nominee.
Nobody supports the working class, for sure. The Dems gave up the working class when the workers dared to challenge the banks in Occupy Wall Street. Instead the Dems shifted to El Woko. The R’s never cared about the working class. The only who cared was T himself.
‘The average American is thus harmed in two ways—things get more expensive, and earning a return on savings gets more difficult. In order to compensate for this lack of safe interest-bearing options, the average American is forced to ‘stretch for yield’ through speculation. This set of factors increases their risk of capital loss and puts them further into debt. As it stands, Americans are more in debt than ever before and less capable of pulling themselves out of it’
This system wants people to be poor and dependent on guberment to push shack prices higher and back the subprime loans that allow them to plod on.
Are you any better off now than you were in January 2021?
Washington Post — Biden has a story to tell about the economy. Inflation gets in the way (4/13/2024):
“Last week’s inflation report showed consumer prices rising 3.5 percent from March 2023 to March 2024. This continued a string of surprises this year, suggesting a resurgence in inflation after signs had pointed in the other direction.
Despite unemployment at a half-century low, the president’s economic job approval is net negative by a significant margin. The RealClearPolitics average shows that he is net negative by 18 percentage points on his handling of the economy and by 27 percentage points on how he’s dealt with inflation.
Political strategists in both parties have reported that voters repeatedly point to higher prices as a source of their unhappiness about the state of the country. The cost of everyday items — gasoline, food, housing — hits them constantly.
It’s hard to persuade voters to look on the sunny side when they are feeling the squeeze of higher prices on their household budgets. Voters’ common refrain is summed up as: Things cost too much.
Gasoline prices are rising once again, a typical occurrence as summer approaches. Although they are below their peak during the Biden presidency, they are significantly higher than when he took office. In early 2021, average gas prices were $2.42. Today they are about $3.50, according to the U.S. Energy Information Agency.”
Iran just seized an Israeli owned commercial ship, get ready for $10 gas.
“Food prices are taking another bite out of household incomes. From 2019 to 2023, food prices rose by 25 percent, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Food costs accounted for 11.3 percent of disposable income in 2022, according to the most recent USDA analysis. That is the highest it has been since 1991, when families spent 11.4 percent of disposable income on food.
Other unexpected and unavoidable costs are hitting family pocketbooks. Car insurance is one example, with rates up 22.2 percent in the past year, the biggest increase since 1976. In Nevada, a presidential battleground state, auto insurance rates were up 38 percent over the previous year, according to a CNN report.”
https://archive.ph/23c1s
40+ percent of every dollar in existence has been printed since the start of CCP Flu, which for everyone but the fats and olds, has an infection fatality rate of 0.0000002%.
You got a check for $1,400. All The Right People got their millions and billions.
“We’re all in this together”
Are you any better off now than you were in January 2021?
Nope.
I’m better off than in 2021.
But I’m mid-career. I’m learning skills, switching companies, and making money. I am also a saver and not a debtor, so my money is growing in various ways.
Inflation sucks. The government is the problem. Whatever. Life sucks, but it’s still better in America than elsewhere. And yes, I’ve considered emigration, but I’ve lived and worked abroad and the grass ain’t greener.
Confession: I am much better off now than I was in 2021. People can joke about FedGov workers all they want, but when you can’t beat ’em, join ’em. The job pays well and offers job security. Since the onset of the pandemic, the paychecks never stopped, retirement accounts are doing ok, I refi’d the house to pay it off a little early, I got a couple big-ticket house repairs done, and I’m planning for another one this year. I lost a little weight (not enough), and health is holding up. Prices are up but so is my salary. So I feel pretty good.
Nobody can fire me either, because I’m not in the “workforce”.
I make enough money, but the government cannot touch me to pay your salary.
Most of my major expenses haven’t changed much, but that’s on me for workarounds.
I’m earning interest.
My kids don’t require support these days.
I’m older isn’t better, but I’m happy.
If you work for the government, it is not wise to brag about anything.
‘I am a mother of 3, bought my home in 2022 and the property taxes and insurance has gone up so much I am currently facing foreclosure.
Looks like in addition to homeless boomers, silent generation members and gen-Xers we are also going to be seeing a lot more homeless single mothers in Florida.
Single women voted 69% for Biden. Voting for evil has consequences.
This percentage comes from the ‘senile corrupt pedophile got 81 million votes’ data.
Newsom orders two-day return to office for CA state workers
Workers say no Woke state = Broke state
Newsom orders two-day return to office for CA state workers
I’m sure they can be just as unproductive at the office.
I’m sure they can be just as unproductive at the office
LOL I am sure it’s true
They don’t want to run the gauntlet of Youth for Biden & mentally ill junkies, and I don’t blame them.
A reader sent these in:
middle class is going under
moar liquidity is needed
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1778818154124177640
you need to ask macro furus how can you get a second wave of inflation when main streets is in shambles and labour market weakening?
https://twitter.com/AlessioUrban/status/1778723128794812458
Credit card delinquencies have hit a new record since the Federal Reserve began tracking the data, 3.5% of outstanding balances are delinquent which represents around $40bn
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1778633616169345111
The 100 N Charles skyscraper in Baltimore has been listed for just $1.5 million
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1778802414755229917
The overall distress rate for all commercial real estate property types increased from 7.35% to 7.61% in March, a new all-time high.
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1778853928630636795
Why buy a house in Vancouver when you can buy a skyscraper for the same price.
https://twitter.com/BartsQuandry/status/1778810343491539092
CLO distress hit a new high as well.
https://twitter.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1778854328284938245
Blackrocks’s Larry Fink: If inflation was measured like it was in the 1980’s with a heavier emphasis on food inflation, housing and interest rates inflation would be 12%.
https://twitter.com/StealthQE4/status/1778783013477761225
The share of all US tech-industry jobs that are located in California has now fallen to some of the lowest levels in a decade, dropping a full percentage point over the last year alone
https://twitter.com/JosephPolitano/status/1777115959872110967
Where are we in the cycle?
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1778934201313579037
The post-lockdown ‘manufacturing boom’ has come to an end. Building more manufacturing plants with tax dollars, slowing demand, and being unable to staff them is the peak of the modern American circus.
https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1778863067771642273
Reversion to the meme…
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778825597705191921
Monthly mortgage payment needed to buy the median priced home for sale in the US…
April 2020: $1,480
April 2021: $1,690
April 2022: $2,400
April 2023: $2,550
April 2024: $2,750
That’s an 86% increase over the last 4 years.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778507060423848397
Note: this doesn’t include all of the other costs of homeownership which have skyrocketed higher as well (property taxes, insurance, maintenance, etc.). “The average annual home insurance cost rose about 20% between 2021 and 2023 to $2,377, according to insurance-shopping site Insurify, which projects another 6% increase in 2024.”
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778781160643944548
According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance in the US has declined 15% over the last year and is 3% lower than it was 5 years ago. The most absurd number in CPI?
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778530019272425490
The Japanese Yen closed at its lowest level since 1990 against the US Dollar, losing more than 50% of its value from the 2011 peak.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778631188522905674
Price increases over last decade…
McDonald’s: +100%
Popeyes: +86%
Taco Bell: +81%
Chipotle: +75%
Jimmy John’s: +62%
Arby’s: +55%
Burger King: +55%
Chick-fil-A: +55%
Wendy’s: +55%
Panera: +54%
Subway: +39%
Starbucks: +39%
US Government Reported Inflation (CPI): +31%
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778463230936973318
Shelter CPI has now been above 5% for 24 consecutive months, the longest period of elevated housing inflation since the early 1980s.
https://twitter.com/charliebilello/status/1778520734089793881
And after we defeat Iran, Joe will invade the Mall of America.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1778867613189505211
MOHAMED EL-ERIAN: I JUST PAID $16.89 FOR A BURGER KING TEXAS DOUBLE WHOPPER MEAL, NOT COUNTING TAX AND TIP.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1778832345576935833
It’s amusing to see MSM stenographers doing podcasts, and tweets, and writing little posts “explaining” CPI and PCE to us, as if we don’t understand our cost of living. Pravda was never this good.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1778569230532944310
The CPI model has now been above the @federalreserve’s made-up “2% target” for 3 years. Their legal mandate is “stable prices.” This is an extremely regressive tax on 330 million Americans.
https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1778493710969328010
Auto insurance rates are soaring.
Rates were up 22.2% year-over-year in Q1 of 2024:
The highest year-over-year increase in nearly 50 years.
Why is this happening? Many reasons, but to list a few:
– More cars being totaled
– Parts and labor costs have gone up
– Longer repair times in some cases = more costs for the insurer
– More electronics in vehicles (leading to more issues and more expensive repairs)
– And more…
Now add this to already high vehicle prices and interest rates… and you have a perfect storm brewing.
https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1778882998630334546
‘you need to ask macro furus how can you get a second wave of inflation when main streets is in shambles and labour market weakening?’
Stagflation isn’t a new concept.
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
The share of all US tech-industry jobs that are located in California has now fallen to some of the lowest levels in a decade, dropping a full percentage point over the last year alone
Every quarter our VP has an all hands meeting. One of the slides welcomes new hires and their locations. The lion’s share are in India or Eastern Europe. I can’t remember the last time I saw a Bay Aryan on that list.
The post-lockdown ‘manufacturing boom’ has come to an end. Building more manufacturing plants with tax dollars, slowing demand, and being unable to staff them is the peak of the modern American circus.
Aren’t most new factories heavily automated and need workers who can operate and maintain it? I’m sure illiterate immigrants who can’t even speak English will be able to work in microchip factories.
It’s amusing to see MSM stenographers doing podcasts, and tweets, and writing little posts “explaining” CPI and PCE to us, as if we don’t understand our cost of living. Pravda was never this good.
Little Jimmy: Daddy, what do you do at work?
His dad: I gaslight people.
Auto insurance rates are soaring.
Rates were up 22.2% year-over-year in Q1 of 2024:
I was lucky, mine “only” went up about 6-7%.
You can save quite a bit by paying the premium in full vs. monthly payments.
“paying the premium in full”
Debt Donkeys can’t do that. They’re selling plasma to make their monthly insurance payments.
My auto insurance company tried to increase mine 6%, so I called for a few additional quotes and got a 15% decrease.
I also pay in 6 month installments for additional savings.
Generally speaking, you can always find someone who will quote less (in all businesses).
I tried. No one that I could find was lower. Most were 20-30% more. One (I think is was Farmers) was almost double.
I tried. No one that I could find was lower. Most were 20-30% more. One (I think is was Farmers) was almost double.
Maybe you pay exceptionally low premiums? Or your zip code is notoriously bad?
I assume inputs are things like zip code, accidents, vehicle cost, age, miles driven, and FICO.
My insurance went down. No explanation.
End Wokeness
@EndWokeness
An illegal migrant from Venezuela tried to rob a bank in Sadusky, Ohio.
The only problem?
He couldn’t figure out how to say “give me your money” so he had to type it into a translator app…
By the time he was done, police arrived.
Apr 12, 2024
·
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1778861357087031480
“They’re not sending their best”
That one never gets old 🤣
One could get whiplash listening to Dumver city hall. Here is the current narrative (from Newsweek):
And this is what a doom loop looks like. Watch Denver empty out even more than it already has. Will anyone still go to the NerdCon at the convention center this summer, knowing your car might be gone at the end of the day?
Why would you need cops if the DA will let the perps out without bail?
* “NerdCon at the convention center this summer. . . ”
laughed so hard the wife rolled her eyeballs EXTRA high
It was once the top event (Denver Pop Culture Con) at convention center, drawing over 125,000 attendees. It folded during the lockdowns and has been replaced by something called FanExpo. I haven’t seen any attendance numbers for FanExpo, but I’m gonna guess that if they were good they would be tooting their horn.
Ten years ago it was actually fun to attend. Then it went woke and I stopped going.
Is high inflation undercutting the messaging from Wall Street’s rate cuts cargo cult?
Just paid $5.20/g at Costco for regular gas…a big spike over the price a few weeks ago
I just checked gasbuddy dot com. $2.79 at the local Sam’s Club. $2.69 at the Costco in Timnath (Fort Collins)
The cost of living is bad enough here. I don’t even want to think about what it’s like in SoCal.
Things are really bad when they’re selling it by the gram.
$5.20 a gallon? Wait until the Iran-Israel war starts, and $5.20 will be a fond memory.
You mean like this afternoon?
Do you worry that US stocks might get hammered in a flight-to-quality move, due to a ramping up of Middle East tensions?
Treasury yields fall as investors weigh state of economy
Published Fri, Apr 12 2024 4:57 AM EDT
Updated Fri, Apr 12 2024 4:01 PM EDT
Hakyung Kim
Sophie Kiderlin
U.S. Treasury yields declined on Friday as investors considered the state of the economy after the release of inflation data and weighed the path ahead for interest rates.
At 4 p.m. ET, the yield on the 10-year Treasury was down more than 5 basis points at 4.52%. The 2-year Treasury yield was last at 4.894% after falling 6 basis points.
The Treasury yields were still up sharply for the week despite Friday’s decline. The benchmark 10-year was up more than 10 basis points during that time, while the 2-year has risen more than 15 basis points.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2024/04/12/us-treasury-yields-as-investors-weigh-state-of-economy.html
Stock Market Today
Dow Jones Futures: Iran Launches Drone Attack At Israel; Bitcoin Tumbles In Initial Reaction
ED CARSON 06:44 PM ET 04/13/2024
Iran launched dozens of drones at Israel, an Israeli military spokesman confirmed Saturday night. Iran also claimed missiles would be part of the attack, but there’s evidence yet of those arriving.
The slow-moving drones will take hours to reach Israel, but could overwhelm Israel’s much-vaunted anti-air defenses, making it easier for ballistic and cruise missiles to get through.
Bitcoin plunged Saturday afternoon on the news in an initial market reaction, falling to a low of $60,908 from about $67,000, but later bounced back to around $64,000. The Bitcoin price tumbled 5.1% to $66,870.29 on Friday as of 5 p.m. ET.
Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures.
The stock market rally sold off Friday just on fears that Iran could directly attack Israel in the coming days, perhaps via drones and missiles.
Tehran had vowed to retaliate after Israel struck a Iranian consulate in Damascus on April 1, reportedly killing a senior general.
Israel could choose to retaliate by striking Iran’s nuclear sites, refineries and more.
The stock market rally sent mixed messages last week, but ended on a bearish one.
…
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-futures-market-breaks-expectations-iran-fears-asml-taiwan-semi/
Would this be a good time for dips to buy?
Yahoo Finance
Fool.co.uk
Would a stock market crash matter?
Christopher Ruane
Sat, 13 April 2024 at 2:19 pm GMT-7·3-min read
In this article:
pensive bearded business man sitting on chair looking out of the window
Image source: Getty Images
Will the stock market crash? Who knows? Or, more accurately, yes it will, but who knows when?
Over time, stock markets rise and fall. But nobody knows exactly what will happen next.
At the moment, the global economy continues to face a number of challenges. Inflation has been stubbornly high and a number of leading economies are showing little or no growth.
But what might a stock market crash actually mean for a small private investor like me?
Perspective and timeframe
It might sound perverse, but a stock market crash would suit me just fine. It would give me a buying opportunity.
…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-crash-matter-211903307.html
Yahoo Finance
Fool.co.uk
Would a stock market crash matter?
Christopher Ruane
Sat, 13 April 2024 at 2:19 pm GMT-7·3-min read
In this article:
pensive bearded business man sitting on chair looking out of the window
Image source: Getty Images
Will the stock market crash? Who knows? Or, more accurately, yes it will, but who knows when?
Over time, stock markets rise and fall. But nobody knows exactly what will happen next.
At the moment, the global economy continues to face a number of challenges. Inflation has been stubbornly high and a number of leading economies are showing little or no growth.
But what might a stock market crash actually mean for a small private investor like me?
Perspective and timeframe
It might sound perverse, but a stock market crash would suit me just fine. It would give me a buying opportunity.
…
https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-crash-matter-211903307.html
‘That [Sandwich] one books really fast and has the last couple of years. This newer property, we have only had it just a few months. It’s not booking as fast, even though they have had some activity. That’s probably due to saturation in the market and economy’
You bought both shacks at the worst possible time Desiree, you got schlonged.
‘I have to deal with that because the city doesn’t want to enforce their own codes’
This reminds me of the money laundering debate in Vancouver back in 2014. We have strong anti-money laundering laws! How many people have been prosecuted in the past 10 years? Well, 3 actually and they were small cases.
How many people have been prosecuted in the past 10 years? Well, 3 actually and they were small cases.
The power of the brown envelope is almost endless.
‘I am a mother of 3, bought my home in 2022 and the property taxes and insurance has gone up so much I am currently facing foreclosure. I am a current Florida National Guard member and can’t make enough to keep up’
You may have hit the absolute peak mother of 3. Bravo!
They typically hold the unit as an investment and it might be a retirement property, she said.”
‘Mason, for example, said she cannot afford to buy a house so she rents a house for her family. In summer 2023, she bought a 500-square-foot studio condominium in the former Oriental Hotel in the 500 block of Yates Street to use as a short-term rental, as was legally allowed. It was to be an investment for her future. It’s a ‘cool space’ with skylights, but has no storage, Mason said. She said her legal right to rent the unit is being taken away. ‘I’ve done everything right. Nothing illegally.’ Asked where her income will come from in the future, she laughed ruefully and said: ‘That’s a great question’
Angela:
Yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip, bmm
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Ahh, yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip
Mum-mum-mum-mum-mum-mum, get a job
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Well every morning about this time (Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na)
She gets me out of bed, a-crying get a job (Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na)
After breakfast everyday she throws the want ads right my way
And never fails to say – get a job
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Ahh, yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip
Mum-mum-mum-mum-mum-mum, get a job
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Lord, and when I get the paper I read it through and through
I, my girl never fail to see if there is any work for me…
I got to go back to the house, hear that woman’s mouth
Preachin’ and a cryin’, tell me that I’m lyin’ about a job
That I never could find
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Ahh, yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip-yip
Mum-mum-mum-mum-mum-mum, get a job
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na
Lord, and when I get the paper I read it through and throu-ough
I, my girl never fail to see if there is any work for me…
I better go back to the house, hear that woman’s mouth
Preachin’ and a cryin’, tell me that I’m lyin’ about a job
That I never could find
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na, sha-na-na-na-na, ahh-do
Sha-na-na-na…
‘Given the state of the market, their hope seems unlikely be buoyed anytime soon. Last year, interest rates were the highest they have been in 22 years and inflationary pressures, especially shelter costs, remain strong. Together, inflation and interest rates are eroding Canadians’ purchasing power. Already, one in three mortgage-holders has been forced to stretch their amortization period beyond the standard 25 years’
That’s some sound lending right there.
ChatGPT 3.5
User
You can wish in one hand and shat in the other, and see which one fills up the fastest.
ChatGPT
That’s quite the colorful expression! It speaks to the idea that wishing for something doesn’t necessarily make it happen, while taking action often yields results.
User
What is shat?
ChatGPT
“Shat” is the past tense of the verb “to shit,” which means to defecate. It’s a colloquial and somewhat informal term.
User
What is shat intelligence?
ChatGPT
“Shat intelligence” isn’t a commonly used term in the field of intelligence or any other context I’m aware of. It might be a misspelling or a term specific to a certain niche or community. Could you provide more context or clarify what you mean by “shat intelligence”?
User
You’ll have to use your artificial intelligence to ponder the meaning.
ChatGPT
Ah, I see what you did there! It seems like a playful twist on the term “artificial intelligence.” In that case, “shat intelligence” could humorously refer to a hypothetical artificial intelligence that specializes in, well, defecation-related matters.
User
Or it could refer to a shitty substitute for actual intelligence.
ChatGPT
Indeed, that interpretation also makes sense. “Shat intelligence” could humorously imply a subpar or inadequate form of intelligence, akin to “shitty intelligence.” It’s all about context and interpretation!
User
Yes it is. I am glad you are catching on.
Could you kindly explain to investors in AI stonks that they have been hoodwinked?
ChatGPT
Investing in AI stocks can be promising, but it’s essential for investors to conduct thorough research and consider various factors before making decisions. While AI has enormous potential, not all companies in the sector may live up to expectations. It’s crucial to assess the company’s technology, market position, competitive landscape, and financial health before investing. Additionally, understanding the broader trends and developments in the AI industry can help investors make more informed decisions.
ChatGPT can make mistakes. Consider checking important information.
ChatGPT
NYC church attack: Teen arrested for allegedly shoving woman down stairs
Apr 12, 2024
https://youtu.be/_FgFz1CfdPc?si=UFP6fa5ETFBeWuCE
I wonder if he screamed “this is MAGA country”.
Fortune
The ‘Oracle of Wall Street’ expands on why the ‘crisis of the American male’ will send home prices crashing 30%: Gaming, rampant loneliness, and not enough single women homebuyers
Fortune· Jonathan Fickies/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Alena Botros
Fri, Apr 12, 2024, 1:35 PM PDT
5 min read
Meredith Whitney, the one-time “Oracle of Wall Street” who predicted the Great Financial Crisis, doesn’t mince her words. Young single men living at home and playing video games are behind a “crisis of the American male,” she explained in an interview with Fortune.
Her theory about dateless, spiraling young men ends with home prices declining for years, or even decades. Whitney sees home prices falling 30%, but it’s “not the end of the world,” in her mind because of how much prices went up during the pandemic-fueled housing boom. “There’s so much equity stored up in American homes, there’s no collateral damage from that—people then, on paper, are worth less than they thought they were,” Whitney said. “It sounds dramatic, but it’s really not that dramatic just because you’ve had so much massive inflation from the zero interest rate policy.”
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/oracle-wall-street-expands-why-203534373.html
I always smile at the olds that blame video games for social ills.
Maybe the problem is many American women are undesirable?
Will the rate dater cargo cult ever through in the towel?
Business
Barbara Corcoran predicted mortgage rates will hit ‘a magic number’ and send housing prices ‘through the roof’ — here’s how to set yourself up today
Moneywise
Moneywise
April 13, 2024 at 4:33 AM
Although many anxious Americans are sweating it out until mortgage rates slide to enter the housing market, “Shark Tank” star Barbara Corcoran believes you might not benefit as much from lower financing costs as you’d expect.
The average 30-year mortgage rate is currently sitting at around the 7% mark and keeping plenty of buyers at bay, but The Mortgage Bankers Association forecasted rates will end at 6.1% by the end of 2024 and Fannie Mae is anticipating them to dip to 5.9% during the fourth quarter.
…
https://www.aol.com/finance/barbara-corcoran-predicted-mortgage-rates-113300198.html?guccounter=1
“…mortgage rates will hit ‘a magic number’ and send housing prices ‘through the roof’…”
Don’t know where Barbara lives, but in our area, mortgage rates already hit a magic number near 3% in 2022 and sent housing prices theough the roof by 50% or so.
Though lightning has struck twice before, it’s extremely rare.
Magic is an illusion.