Mid-Year Housing Bubble Predictions
What are your housing bubble predictions half way through the year? Six months ago: ‘Here is my stopped clock recession prediction from a couple of days back: Was recession permanently avoided in 2023, or merely postponed? I predict the debate will continue until at least one of these three doors is entered: 1) recession begins. 2) inflation drops below 2%. 3) the Treasury yield curve normalizes.'”
Another said: “Because Biden wants to be re elected the democrats will pressure the FED to lower interest rates. I predict the stock market will continue to make gains for a few months and they will fake inflation numbers. Second half of 2024 IDK but I think 2025 will be bad. 2024 Sell in May and go away.”
One year ago: ‘Mid-year prediction: I will complete above ground demolition on the teardown house in Southern Colorado. I may or may not hire someone to come scoop out the pit and demo the damaged foundation, that might not happen until next year. Prediction for Denver: things there will only get worse. More homeless, more crime, more road rage. NOTHING will improve under Mayor-elect Johnston. Denver will not escape the ‘doom loop’ that it voted upon itself.”
Another: ‘I predict we have not heard the last of the banking crisis that erupted this spring, then mysteriously disappeared. The underlying fundamental reality of underwater balance sheets, due to rising rates hammering the value of long term bonds in banks’ asset portfolios, didn’t magically go away. At some point, this financial volcano will erupt again, accompanied by proclamations that, “Nobody could have seen it coming!”
From Bankrate. “Prices hit a new all-time high in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which reports that median existing-home prices were up 5.8 percent over last year — the 11th month in a row of year-over-year jumps. ‘Prices will remain firm and will not decline on a national level.’ — Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist, National Association of Realtors.”
The Wall Street Journal. “Historically, once the unemployment rate has drifted up by a half-point from its recent low over the past year, it has gone on to rise a lot more, and the economy is in recession. ‘This is what the economy looks like when it is at a sustainable simmer,’ said Ernie Tedeschi, a former Biden administration economist who is now at Yale University’s Budget Lab. ‘This time really may be different. The unemployment rate may be drifting higher because it is settling into its natural rate.’ By the same token, ‘the Fed needs to take seriously that while the labor market isn’t deteriorating quickly, it’s not as robust as it might seem on paper.'”
Banker & Tradesman in Massachusetts. “The real estate market recovery was sluggish at first, but by 2020, home prices had handily recovered from the Great Recession and were hitting new highs. But then came the pandemic. Home prices over the past four years have gone absolutely bananas, both around the country but especially in Greater Boston, where the median price for a home is now approaching $1 million within the Interstate 495 belt, according to Banker & Tradesman’s publisher The Warren Group. Statewide, the median home price hit $590,000 during the first five months of 2024, the company also said. That, in and of itself, is an astounding number given it covers everything from Back Bay mansions to modest homes in small towns well outside of the Boston area’s orbit.”
“Jeremy Grantham, co-founder of Boston-based investment powerhouse GMO LLC, has been direct and dire in his prediction of where the real estate market is headed. Earlier this year Grantham warned not just of trouble ahead for real estate in the U.S., but globally as well. ‘In real estate, everything everywhere is in a dangerous bubble,’ Grantham said. Sheila Blair, who headed the FDIC before, during and after the Great Recession, when home prices fell by more than 30 percent, used the ‘B’ word herself in an interview late last year. ‘Talk about a bubble. That’s a classic supply-demand imbalance,’ Blair told CNN of the big rise in the median price of a home in the U.S.”
Business Insider. “The US housing market has officially entered bizzaro world. The law of supply and demand is a basic principle of any free market, and right now, it’s being subverted by strange happenings in the real estate market. The supply of homes for sale is rising while demand for homes is falling. And yet housing prices continue to hit record highs. But the dynamic of falling demand, rising supply, and rising home prices can’t last forever. Market strategist Chris Vermeulen highlighted a plateau in home builder activity as a reason to believe that the housing market could experience a major ‘leg down.’ ‘The reality is that I think we’re going to see this collapse,’ Vermeulen said.”
NPR on Florida. “State Rep. Vicki Lopez has a recommendation for prospective homebuyers in her district: ‘I’m telling people not to buy a condominium now.’ Lopez, who represents part of Miami-Dade County, said only a handful of condo associations in her district have completed their structural integrity reserve study. Others are still trying to find a company to do it prior to the December deadline. She noted the state won’t penalize associations as long as they try to fulfill the requirements. Lopez said the reforms are playing a role in the slowdown of condo sales. ‘We know that banks and mortgage brokers are not giving mortgages to buildings who don’t have reserves, adequate reserves. They just don’t want to take the risk,’ Lopez said. ‘The other side is that people are trying to dump their condos because they can’t afford the assessments.'”
From CNN. “Last year, when Jennifer Hernandez received notice that the mortgage payments on her Houston home would jump about $2,000 per month, she was stunned. Hernandez refinanced her home loan in 2016 using an adjustable-rate mortgage loan, which has a low introductory rate for a fixed initial period. When mortgage rates increase, many ARM loan holders, like Hernandez, experience the unpleasant shock of significantly higher monthly home payments. For thousands of Americans like Hernandez who took out ARM loans five years ago, before interest rates shot up to a four-decade high, that shock is coming this year.”
“According to data from Intercontinental Exchange, 1.7 million homeowners have bought homes with adjustable-rate mortgages since 2019. Many buyers who bought 5-year ARMs – one of the more popular offerings – will graduate into significantly higher monthly payments this year. Hernandez, who is herself a loan officer, had misremembered the terms of her $1.1 million loan: rather than a 10/1 ARM, which has a fixed rate for the first ten years and resets every year after that, Hernandez had taken out a 7/1 loan. ‘I just got caught blindsided,’ she said. This coming October, she suspects her monthly payments will adjust higher. ‘I’ve made it work, but now I’m going to have to figure out how to make it work again this October,’ she said. ‘It’s stressful having to worry about it. I’m just praying that when my October adjustment comes around, rates have come down a little bit.'”
From Moneywise. “The national office vacancy rate hit a record 19.8% in the first quarter of 2024, according to a preliminary report from Moody’s Analytics. And it could get worse, as companies continue to lease substantial space despite a decline in the in-office footprint. ‘The doomsday scenario has yet to play out,’ wrote Moody’s experts. ‘With significant lease rollovers and shifting interest rate expectations, uncertainty remains over exactly when office vacancy rates will truly peak.’ In New York City, office vacancy levels have topped 20% since the COVID-19 pandemic began in 2020, reports CNN, citing data from the NYC Comptroller. Census Bureau data shows the city’s estimated population slumped from 8.80 million to 8.34 million between April 2020 and July 2022, a drop of roughly 468,000 residents — which represented nearly 5.3% of the city’s total population.”
York Region in Canada. “Once word got out that rates were pretty much a sure thing to come down, nobody was making the first move. Buyers wanted that lower rate before committing to a purchase. Sellers weren’t going to take a hit on price knowing full well lower rates bring more buyers into the marketplace. So for the last two weeks of May all we heard was, ‘After you — no, no, after you.’ OK, I’ve been on this soapbox before. I recognize the view. Forgive me, there’s a moral to this story. I came across this quote ‘the best prophet of the future is the past.’ It is being forecasted that there will be another two to three rate decreases before the end of the year.”
“So if you’re a buyer are you going to wait until the end of the year to purchase? No you’re not! It will be too late. Now is the time to ‘marry the house, date the rate.’ Get in the market now when inventory levels are probably at their highest. Choosing a variable rate is exactly what dating the rate is about.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “A flood of condo units are being listed in Toronto. At the end of May, there were 6,350 active condo listings in the city, an increase of 94 per cent from the previous May, according to Toronto Regional Real Estate Board figures compiled by realtor Scott Ingram. Condo inventory is nearly 70 per cent higher than the 10-year average for last month. Mr. Ingram said that investors – of which there are plenty in the condo market – are likely facing pressure from variable-rate mortgages that are poised to renew at higher interest rates. Others may be looking to realize their gains in the property market, which has less upside for price appreciation amid steeper borrowing costs. ‘The thing that exacerbates all this is you don’t have investors buying right now, because the prospects don’t look pretty,’ he said.”
“At this time of year, condo inventory typically peaks. But listings have continued to rise in June, according to Mr. Ingram’s tracking of the numbers. He expects more growth, but perhaps at a weaker rate. In a world with higher interest rates, where investors can earn risk-free returns of 5 per cent, ‘it does make being a landlord less attractive,’ Mr. Ingram said. ‘Appreciation is not happening. Things aren’t going up 10 per cent a year’ like before.”
From News.com.au. “Despite tens of billions of dollars being spent to address Australia’s crippling housing crisis, a top economist has delivered a stark assessment of how long it will take to turn the tide. And it’s not good news for those battling skyrocketing rents and runaway home prices. Shanker Ramakrishan is an economist and finance consulting who has worked at the front lines of Sydney’s real estate sector for decades. Mr Ramakrishan said he’s never seen things quite this bad. ‘Things are really tough out there, whether someone is trying to buy their first home or struggling with the cost of renting a home,’ he said. ‘Unfortunately, I don’t see an end in sight – not for at least another 10 years.'”
The Sydney Morning Herald. “‘This will take decades to sort out,’ says Michael Fotheringham, managing director of the Australian Housing and Urban Research Institute. ‘Trying to fix housing in three or five years is just not going to happen. We need to think longer, and we need to have a stable, long-term plan to make it work.'”
“What role does negative gearing play? Negative gearing, in a nutshell, is when expenses on an investment property (such as mortgage payments) outweigh the rental income being earned, and the owner incurs a loss. But under Australia’s tax system, people who are ‘negatively geared’ in property can deduct their rental losses from other taxable income, such as salary and wages, resulting in a lower overall tax bill. Combined with a capital gains tax discount, negative gearing is the most contentious issue in housing policy. Many, including the Greens and the Grattan Institute, want to wind it back or get rid of it entirely. The government has not flagged any plan to change current policy and the Coalition supports keeping it.”
“Running an investment property at a loss might seem silly. Yet plenty of people have been keen to do it – and simultaneously with multiple properties. This is at least partly because of the generous way we tax capital gains today.”
Interest New Zealand. “So, what’s 2024 to be? A game of two halves? Or just one rather soggy (w)hole? Well, while it would be nice to think ‘the best is yet to come’ for this year, it looks like it would be wishful thinking. Very wishful thinking. As I write this about halfway through the year, we appear as a country to have descended into something of a funk. The previous mental resilience that we saw in the face of high interest rates seems, all of a sudden, to have crumpled rather quickly. The economy is down. People appear to be down. We are in, well, a soggy hole.”
“In very simplistic terms, we need the following chain reaction: Inflation comes down, the Reserve Bank cuts the Official Cash Rate, retail interest rates (mortgages etc) come down, people feel wealthier and start spending more money again, businesses start to pick up with the increased spending, more jobs are created. Somewhere in the midst of this the housing market will perk up (this could happen at any stage in the chain reaction; remember this is a country that added 40% to its house prices during a pandemic – there’s no bad time for a housing market surge in New Zealand).”
“I think the economy has in the past three months, and even more so perhaps in the last six weeks, shown signs of really buckling under. Spending has dried up, the signs are the job market is tightening quickly, the economy is as flat as a pancake. Some economists are already forecasting that GDP will have gone backwards again in the June quarter 2024. And, yes, house prices have gone backwards again and economists are quickly slashing forecasts of future price growth.”
“However, I guess if we want to be the ultimate in glass-half-empty pessimists we could also ask, yes, okay – but what if inflation DOES in any case stay somewhat stubbornly high? Well, that would be when we could really start to worry, I think. And that’s why the second half of this year is so important, kicking off with those inflation figures on July 17. If, particularly the domestic inflation figures, stay still quite resiliently high then we are in trouble. Have no doubt. Because the RBNZ would feel compelled to hold the OCR high and the economy would – based on what we are seeing now – start to be squeezed beyond pain.”
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HBB warning to readers: npr and cnn are globalist scum media that peddle conspiracy theories, election lies and mis, mal and dis-informations.
As usual I’ll forward this post through the 4th of July.
More than a year after the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank, higher interest rates are still putting pressure on the US banking system.
According to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation’s first quarter report, the US banking system is sitting on a collective $517 billion in unrealized losses and has 63 “problem banks.”
Those losses have been sparked primarily by a surge in interest rates over the past two years, which have driven down the price of fixed-income securities held by banks.
Unrealized losses held by banks increased by $39 billion in the first quarter relative to the fourth quarter of 2023.
“Higher unrealized losses on residential mortgage-backed securities, resulting from higher mortgage rates in the first quarter, drove the overall increase,” the FDIC said.
Mortgage rates have been on the rise since the start of the year, with the 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising from about 6.6% in early January to just over 7% today, according to data from Freddie Mac.
“This is the ninth straight quarter of unusually high unrealized losses since the Federal Reserve began to raise interest rates in the first quarter 2022,” the FDIC said.
Total assets held by the 63 problem banks in the first quarter was $82 billion, according to the FDIC, suggesting that most of the problem banks are smaller in size.
While there has been an increase in problem banks due to higher interest rates, it shouldn’t be a cause for concern just yet.
“The number of problem banks represent 1.4% of total banks, which is within the normal range for non-crisis periods of one to two percent of all banks,” the FDIC said.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/higher-interest-rates-created-63-013240575.html
Those losses have been sparked primarily by a surge in interest rates over the past two years, which have driven down the price of fixed-income securities held by banks.
I suppose the Fed could buy them at par value. Of course they would have to conjure $500B out of thin air, which is inflationary.
conjure $500B out of thin air
Ironic, since they already did once to originate them.
“…the downfall of Silicon Valley Bank…”
All that matters is Steve Jobs’ widow is made whole.
‘Running an investment property at a loss might seem silly. Yet plenty of people have been keen to do it – and simultaneously with multiple properties’
Australia is a silly country.
They’ll make it up in volume.
Good thing their cans of beer are large.
I predict lots of victim sob stories among rate daters who didn’t anticipate rates would stay higher-for-longer.
rate daters
I wonder if that term will ever be recorded by historians, the way “show shine boy moment” has been immortalized.
Prediction about the teardown is about 95% complete. From March to June I filled up another 90 cubic yards of rolloffs.
There are floors of two more rooms on shallow crawlspaces that still need torn out. I want to save the slab of the garage to reuse it.
Sometime this fall I’ll be writing a very large check to a demolition contractor to scoop out the foundation and remaining debris.
Two weeks to flatten the curve?
New York Times — The Youngest Pandemic Children Are Now in School, and Struggling (6/30/2024):
“The pandemic’s babies, toddlers and preschoolers are now school-age, and the impact on them is becoming increasingly clear: Many are showing signs of being academically and developmentally behind.
Interviews with more than two dozen teachers, pediatricians and early childhood experts depicted a generation less likely to have age-appropriate skills — to be able to hold a pencil, communicate their needs, identify shapes and letters, manage their emotions or solve problems with peers.
“I definitely think children born then have had developmental challenges compared to prior years,” said Dr. Jaime Peterson, a pediatrician at Oregon Health and Science University, whose research is on kindergarten readiness. “We asked them to wear masks, not see adults, not play with kids. We really severed those interactions, and you don’t get that time back for kids.”
The early years, though, are most critical for brain development. Researchers said several aspects of the pandemic affected young children — parental stress, less exposure to people, lower preschool attendance, more time on screens and less time playing.
The youngest children represent “a pandemic tsunami” headed for the American education system, said Joel Ryan, who works with a network of Head Start and state preschool centers in Washington State, where he has seen an increase in speech delays and behavioral problems.
https://archive.ph/OCSiW
We’re all in this together?
Interviews with more than two dozen teachers, pediatricians and early childhood experts depicted a generation less likely to have age-appropriate skills
And we thought Gen Z is useless.
I never thought that. But some people never miss a chance to take a swipe at those paying the WWII set’s Social Security.
WWII set’s
And….they’re all dead.
The One World Order fake news managed to divert from the issues of treason by Biden and the destruction of USA by The Democratic platforms and policies.
Lets all talk about Biden’s mental capacity, rather than the issues of Democrats being the Party that Represents the One World Order.
This surrender by governments to the One World Order and their Puppet Organizations like the UN and WHO is the most clear and present danger to billions of people.
So, they will just insert another shill puppet at the last minute to replace Biden while never having accountability on their treason, their global power grab, invasion of Countries Borders, their fraudulent climate change and global pandemics, the looting of tax coffers to divert to the enemies, their killer fake vaccines and genocide, their inflation, their destruction of small business, their attack on 50 %of population, their censorship and attack on free speech and second amendment, and transgender assult on minors.
Just keep talking and debating Biden’s mental capacity, when he was a byproduct of a criminally rigged election, and operational take over by One World Order Entities.
A One World Order that has a sinister plan to enslave, genocide, and subjugate billions of people to a Dictorship of you will eat bugs and own nothing. This enemy wants to control all resources and consumption of humans with no rights or freedoms.
So,no accountability for the reign of terror for the last 4years, just insert new Democratic candidate, to continue to advance New World Order stealing life and the earth from humanity, with no accountability to crimes against humanity.
I’m saying this was a massive crime from day one when these psychopaths launched their attack on billions of people . Its a new kind of warfare , where your suppose to comply to genocide , fraudulent narratives and a One World dictatorship.
Taking out Biden doesn’t change the plot to take over the Earth by these Entities .
We have a occupied Executed Branch by enemy, and most likely 75% of Congress/Senate and no doubt segments of Judiciary, DOJ, DOD, and countless deep state government agencies.
the destruction of USA by The Democratic platforms and policies
I wonder just how much money, like say the billions budgeted for EV charging stations, was simply grifted. Perhaps that is why the current admin is terrified of the orange man and the GOP taking power back. They are afraid of being convicted of embezzlement and spending the rest of their lives in the slammer.
I predict Trump will be wrongfully put in prison , which will interfere with his campaign.
Its questionable how much being in prison will help or hinder his campaign.
Can a President pardon himself from convictions, and than go to his elected post at the White house?
I think Biden won’t agree to resigning until he has pardoned Hunter, but Hunter haven’t even started the tax evasion case yet. I read a President can’t pardon taxes owed to treasury, or ordered compensation to third party damage.
If Trump is taken out by any means, don’t see Haley being even able to beat Biden. .
Don’t know why they set up this early Debate between Biden and Trump.
I predict attempt to rig election by any means possible by One World Order. I’m going to change the name of Democrats to One World Order dictorship Party. Want to vote for them, whoever the put up?
“I predict Trump will be wrongfully put in prison , which will interfere with his campaign.”
It’s too late; the voter reaction could not be contained. Biden will pardon Trump, IMHO.
Biden will pardon Trump, IMHO.
Hell has a greater likelihood of freezing over.
It will happen so that Trump can fully perform the duties of the POTUS, and it will get Biden off the hook too. It’s a big club…
It should be quite obvious by now that DJT isn’t part of that club.
I predict attempt to rig election by any means possible by One World Order.
Given how big the orange man’s lead is growing, a steal will be much harder than last time. I’m sure they will try to get illegals to vote.
Right, Biden has 25% support overall and it would be to hard to rig that probably.
So, a insert of Hilary, Newsome or that dude posing as a women Michael Obama, they have to do to make a election steal more plausible.
Can Trump beat all their potential inserts, the polls say yes. But Haley can’t beat even Biden probably.
If you capture a government, you capture its military also , who is now under the command of the enemy.
This escalation of Wars, headed toward WW3 is part of the One World Order Insanity.
I don’t think in terms of Republican and Democrats anymore. Its One World Order Dictorship , or humanity, animals,plants and the earth.
Good thing we have Presidents, not Emperors.
I predict moar rigged elections:
https://thethaiger.com/news/national/election-scandal-shocker-senate-results-halted-amid-fraud-claims
I predict that SHTF this fall, September or October. Probably bank failures or some kind of black swan event. Who ever wins the election in going to blame it on the other. Both the economy/stock market and job market will go down. They can only kick the can down the road so long. I’m shocked it’s gone on this long.
We all know where things are headed so I’ll leave it at that for predictions. But moving forward I would recommend doing your own research when it comes to real estate and market direction. Because if you don’t think that data we are receiving and will yet receive is nothing but fabrication, manipulation and flat out lies, then I got a gold mine I’d like to sell ya!
“a second wave of restructurings from 2025 onwards”
Hong Kong Liquidation Suits Spell More Trouble for Chinese Real Estate Industry
JOHN HAYWARD
1 Jul 2024
Courts in Hong Kong heard four liquidation suits against Chinese developers from their frustrated creditors last week, a record number of cases to hit the courts at the same time.
The liquidation surge spells more trouble for the Chinese real estate market, which has been tottering on the verge of collapse for years.
All four were granted temporary reprieves from liquidation, but the longest grace period the courts extended was seven weeks. Kaisa Holdings was bluntly told there would be “no excuse” for giving it another extension. Court observers noted that the restructuring terms are getting worse with every extension.
The South China Morning Post (SCMP) noted on Monday that several other Chinese developers are facing their own impending hearings or have already been ordered to liquidate their assets to repay creditors, including at least one state-supported enterprise.
Glen Ho, a specialist at the international auditing and consulting firm Deloitte, anticipated “a second wave of restructurings from 2025 onwards” because there will probably be “no significant improvement in sales or the confidence of home buyers.”
https://www.breitbart.com/asia/2024/07/01/hong-kong-liquidation-suits-spell-more-trouble-for-chinese-real-estate-industry/
“All four were granted temporary reprieves from liquidation, but the longest grace period the courts extended was seven weeks.“
I’m sure there’s plenty of bowing apologies and begging for sympathy even after asset liquidation. Recall that the head of Beijing airport’s management company during the 2008 Beijing Olympics was found guilty of corruption and executed by firing squad.
Not a prediction but a question, where can you park CASH that earns interest but can be easily withdrawn? When you are preparing to pay contractors for larger projects, and you don’t know how much each one will cost.
Fidelity SPAXX still paying around 4.97% but rate cuts will ruin all that, the war on savers will continue so Wall Street can chew a few more morsels of rotting flesh of the corpse of Main Street.
It’s illegal for rich people to loose money in this country. How else do you enter Congress on a $175K salary and retire with a net worth $10M+
‘Prices hit a new all-time high in May, according to the National Association of Realtors (NAR), which reports that median existing-home prices were up 5.8 percent over last year — the 11th month in a row of year-over-year jumps. ‘Prices will remain firm and will not decline on a national level’
All time high Larry.
‘by 2020, home prices had handily recovered from the Great Recession and were hitting new highs. But then came the pandemic. Home prices over the past four years have gone absolutely bananas, both around the country but especially in Greater Boston, where the median price for a home is now approaching $1 million within the Interstate 495 belt…Statewide, the median home price hit $590,000 during the first five months of 2024, the company also said. That, in and of itself, is an astounding number given it covers everything from Back Bay mansions to modest homes in small towns well outside of the Boston area’s orbit’
So there was already a bubble and minor respiratory illness made it a yuuge bubble. Plus it’s in every little sh$thole around.
There are no more “Oil Cities” to escape from higher-for-longer housing prices in places where everyone wants to live.
‘I’m telling people not to buy a condominium now…We know that banks and mortgage brokers are not giving mortgages to buildings who don’t have reserves, adequate reserves. They just don’t want to take the risk…The other side is that people are trying to dump their condos because they can’t afford the assessments’
It’s a good thing everybody put 20% down Vickie.
‘Last year, when Jennifer Hernandez received notice that the mortgage payments on her Houston home would jump about $2,000 per month, she was stunned. Hernandez refinanced her home loan in 2016 using an adjustable-rate mortgage loan, which has a low introductory rate for a fixed initial period. When mortgage rates increase, many ARM loan holders, like Hernandez, experience the unpleasant shock of significantly higher monthly home payments. For thousands of Americans like Hernandez who took out ARM loans five years ago, before interest rates shot up to a four-decade high, that shock is coming this year’
‘According to data from Intercontinental Exchange, 1.7 million homeowners have bought homes with adjustable-rate mortgages since 2019. Many buyers who bought 5-year ARMs – one of the more popular offerings – will graduate into significantly higher monthly payments this year. Hernandez, who is herself a loan officer, had misremembered the terms of her $1.1 million loan: rather than a 10/1 ARM, which has a fixed rate for the first ten years and resets every year after that, Hernandez had taken out a 7/1 loan. ‘I just got caught blindsided,’ she said. This coming October, she suspects her monthly payments will adjust higher. ‘I’ve made it work, but now I’m going to have to figure out how to make it work again this October,’ she said. ‘It’s stressful having to worry about it. I’m just praying that when my October adjustment comes around, rates have come down a little bit’
‘a loan officer, had misremembered the terms of her $1.1 million loan’
‘Once word got out that rates were pretty much a sure thing to come down, nobody was making the first move. Buyers wanted that lower rate before committing to a purchase. Sellers weren’t going to take a hit on price knowing full well lower rates bring more buyers into the marketplace. So for the last two weeks of May all we heard was, ‘After you — no, no, after you.’ OK, I’ve been on this soapbox before. I recognize the view. Forgive me, there’s a moral to this story. I came across this quote ‘the best prophet of the future is the past.’ It is being forecasted that there will be another two to three rate decreases before the end of the year…So if you’re a buyer are you going to wait until the end of the year to purchase? No you’re not! It will be too late. Now is the time to ‘marry the house, date the rate.’ Get in the market now when inventory levels are probably at their highest. Choosing a variable rate is exactly what dating the rate is about’
He’s right you know.
It’s gotten to the point where I would rather hear nails scratching a blackboard than hear Kamala Harris or Joe Biden speak.
PANDERING FOR BLACK VOTES: @VP Kamala Harris (@KamalaHarris) panders to Black Voters by using these urban slang/HipHop terms “I’m in these streets”& “they not like us” references during her segmented exchange with Taraji P. Hensen (@tarajiphenson) for the BET Awards 2024
Kamala Harris is an Indian-American who is most known for appropriating, cos-playing and pretends to be a Foundational Black American.
#BETawards #BET #TarajiHensen #KamalaHarris
10:09 PM · Jun 30, 2024
https://x.com/Maejor4Congress/status/1807597289822933026
‘At this time of year, condo inventory typically peaks. But listings have continued to rise in June, according to Mr. Ingram’s tracking of the numbers. He expects more growth, but perhaps at a weaker rate. In a world with higher interest rates, where investors can earn risk-free returns of 5 per cent, ‘it does make being a landlord less attractive,’ Mr. Ingram said. ‘Appreciation is not happening. Things aren’t going up 10 per cent a year’ like before’
Without 10% a year it’s not working Scott?
‘Somewhere in the midst of this the housing market will perk up (this could happen at any stage in the chain reaction; remember this is a country that added 40% to its house prices during a pandemic – there’s no bad time for a housing market surge in New Zealand”
You enjoyed the boom, enjoy the bust.
Canada Might Revolt If This Was Mainstream News
MCGA
Jul 1, 2024 #FreeCanada #MCGA
Watch Justin Trudeau Clearly Lying to Lawyers regarding int*rf*rence, and his knowledge of it, in our Last TWO ELECT*ONS. Disgraceful.
April 12 2024
📢 BREAKING CANADIAN POLITICS WITH BORING BITS REMOVED
AVAILABLE ON THIS CHANNEL EVERY DAY AROUND 4PM PT (7PM EST)
CATCH THE ACTION WITHOUT THE SNOOZIN 😴 💤
#FreeCanada #MCGA
0:00 His First Lie
0:24 What Were You Briefed On And When
1:20 Is That Consistent With Your Recollection
2:03 You Missed The Question
2:34 Maybe My Question Was Not Clear
3:38 Makes Sense When You Say You Dont Read
4:16 WEIRD TRUDEAU MOMENT
5:30 Lawyer Talks To Trudeau Like A Child
6:27 It Could Have Been Tricycles Do You Understand
6:52 Do You Accept The PRC Interfered
7:44 Youre Missing The Point Again
8:28 NOT AS WELL AS SOMEONE IN THIS ROOM
8:50 LIBERALS TRY TO CENSOR LAWYER
9:40 Trudeau Pretends To Read
10:37 Real TOUGH Guy Trudeau
11:01 2019 And 2021 THIS Happened
12:00 PRC PREFERS LIBERALS
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CoFNnBrq5Ps
13:46.
The Mormon renters next door, who moved in mid-April, appear to have moved out today. Query: how does a family with 8 kids (one disabled) and one on the way live in San Diego on 90% of one income and pay for their eldest son’s mission?
Here’s some math. The property is listed at $7,500/mo. Property management companies typically require 3x rent for income. So that’s $270K/yr. With 10% tithing, that’s $300K/yr.
Many LDS families I know in North San Diego County make > $300K. And a large percentage of those we knew over the past two decades bailed out of California during the pandemic.
Move back to Utah?
‘Here is my stopped clock recession prediction from a couple of days back: Was recession permanently avoided in 2023, or merely postponed? I predict the debate will continue until at least one of these three doors is entered: 1) recession begins. 2) inflation drops below 2%. 3) the Treasury yield curve normalizes.’
Update:
1) Many optimists will insist that no recession so far means that a soft landing has arrived, and no recession will happen this cycle.
2) A few pessimists will keep making occasional near-term recession predictions.
3) Last I checked, no recession had started, inflation remained above 2%, and the yield curve was still inverted. Hence my stopped clock prediction continues.
Yahoo
Reuters Videos
Portfolio manager sees ‘elevated risk’ of US recession
Updated
Mon, Jul 1, 2024, 12:20 PM PDT
STORY: Stucky says the strength of the labor market and the “Federal Reserve’s track record in hiking interest rates and then cutting them without causing some economic disruption doesn’t inspire a lot of confidence” in the economy.
“Ten of the last 13 hiking cycles have resulted in some form of a U.S. recession and we just went through the fastest hiking cycle in more than 40 years” said Stucky. “So we’re still classifying today’s environment as one of elevated risk as it relates to the forward trajectory of the U.S economy.”
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/portfolio-manager-sees-elevated-risk-192027032.html
‘“Ten of the last 13 hiking cycles have resulted in some form of a U.S. recession and we just went through the fastest hiking cycle in more than 40 years” said Stucky.’
One more prediction:
Economic whiplash risk will remain extremely elevated for the foreseeable future.
Treasury yields remain inverted as investors continue to weigh risk of recession
June 7, 2024
Summer 2024 Investment Outlook – July 23
Is the growth momentum sustainable?
Key takeaways
– While interest rates seem poised for adjustments in 2024 – based on the likelihood of evolving Federal Reserve monetary policy – an unusual environment that emerged in 2022 persists today.
– Yields on some shorter-term Treasury securities continue to exceed those of most longer-term Treasuries.
– While this so-called “inverted yield curve” is viewed by some market observers as an indicator of potential recession, the economy today continues to prove resilient.
Despite expectations going into 2024 that things might begin to change, an unusual bond market environment persists. Yields on shorter-term debt securities, in general, remain higher than those of longer-term securities – a circumstance referred to as an “inverted yield curve.” This is contrary to a normal fixed income investing environment, when investors are paid higher yields to put money to work in longer-term bonds.
Key to the “stickiness” of the inverted yield curve, which first emerged in the fall of 2022, is that the Federal Reserve (Fed) rapidly raised the short-term interest rates it controls. Then, since July 2023, the Fed, while no longer raising rates, has held the line on the federal funds target rate in a range of 5.25% to 5.50%. The
were in response to ramping up in 2021 and 2022.
“Rates on the short-end of the yield curve are closely tied to the Fed’s own interest rate policy,” says Rob Haworth, senior investment strategy director at U.S. Bank Wealth Management. Fed officials indicated in late 2023 that it would reverse course and begin cutting the fed funds rate this year.
“As the Fed awaits more favorable inflation data, it is keeping rates steady for now.”
The bond market experienced modest changes in 2024’s opening months. Rates on medium- and long-term Treasury debt securities trended higher while yields on shorter-term Treasuries remained relatively steady. This served to “flatten” the yield curve, but not yet correct a persistent yield curve inversion that first emerged in late 2022. The inverted curve is driven primarily by recent Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hikes. Short-term yields across the bond market track closely with the Fed’s higher federal funds rate, with longer-term yields rising as well, but generally not to the same degree.
…
https://www.usbank.com/investing/financial-perspectives/market-news/treasury-yields-invert-as-investors-weigh-risk-of-recession.html
Is there any reason the stock market cannot remain on a permanently high plateau?
Market Valuation: Is the Market Still Overvalued?
by Jennifer Nash, 7/1/24
Market valuation indicators are used by investors and analysts to gauge whether markets are overvalued, undervalued, or fairly valued relative to historical norms. Here is a summary of the four market valuation indicators we update monthly.
– The Crestmont Research P/E ratio (more)
– The cyclical P/E ratio using the trailing 10-year earnings as the divisor (more)
– The Q ratio, which is the total price of the market divided by its replacement cost (more)
– The relationship of the S&P composite price to a regression trendline (more)
To facilitate comparisons, we’ve adjusted the two P/E ratios and Q ratio to their arithmetic means and the inflation-adjusted S&P composite to its exponential regression. Additionally, we’ve plotted the S&P regression data as an area chart type rather than a line to make the comparisons a bit easier to read. It also reinforces the difference between the line charts — which are simple ratios — and the regression series, which measures the distance from an exponential regression on a log chart. Thus the percentages on the vertical axis show the over/undervaluation as a percent above mean value, which we’re using as a surrogate for fair value.
…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2024/07/01/market-valuation-is-the-market-still-overvalued
Financial Times
JPMorgan Chase & Co
Kolanovic to leave JPMorgan after series of mistimed stock market calls
Top analyst leaves US bank after bearish forecasts on S&P 500
JPMorgan signage on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange
Marko Kolanovic and other JPMorgan strategists had reiterated their bearish outlook in a note to clients last week
George Steer in London and Joshua Franklin in New York9 hours ago
Marko Kolanovic will leave his role as JPMorgan’s chief global markets strategist, ending a 19-year stint that culminated in a series of mistimed calls on the US stock market.
Kolanovic, also the bank’s co-head of global research, was among the few bearish strategists left on Wall Street, having recently forecast that the S&P 500 would tumble by almost 25 per cent from current levels by year-end.
Once dubbed “the man who moves markets” by CNBC and “Gandalf” by Bloomberg, Kolanovic’s star has fallen in recent years on a series of contrarian and ultimately mistimed calls on the direction of the S&P 500.
Two years ago he advised clients to take an overweight position in US stocks during the deep market sell-off, before switching to recommending an underweight position in early 2023. The bank has stuck with that position ever since, despite the blue-chip index having surged more than 40 per cent since then.
…
Are Wall Street bears about to be declared an endangered species?
And what happens to a boat if everyone on board puts their weight on the same side?
Personal Finance
The unemployment rate hit 4% for the first time in 2 years. Here’s why economists say you shouldn’t worry
Published Fri, Jun 21 2024 11:14 AM EDT
Updated Fri, Jun 21 2024 2:07 PM EDT
Genna Contino
Key Points
– The unemployment rate rose to 4% last month for the first time since January 2022.
– While economists say they aren’t worried, they are keeping an eye on unemployment insurance claims and any news of layoffs that could indicate a recession.
– New college graduates and people seeking entry-level jobs might have more trouble finding a job as the number of people aged 20 to 24 entering the workforce jumped in May.
The unemployment rate, which has remained low for two years, has been inching higher in the first half of the year, according to data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
For the first time since January 2022, the unemployment rate ticked to 4.0% last month, up from 3.9% in April. It was as low as 3.4% in April 2023.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/06/21/unemployment-ticked-up-recession-risk-remains-low.html
‘Here’s why economists say you shouldn’t worry*
Don’t Worry, Be Happy
Bobby McFerrin
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=d-diB65scQU
Footnote:
His dad was a famous opera singer, who broke the color barrier in the opera world. He once performed in his retirement years as a soloist in a production of Handel’s Messiah I played for.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_McFerrin
Fortune
One of the most accurate recession indicators is close to sounding the alarm as unemployment continues to rise
Fortune· Getty Images
Jason Ma
Sat, Jul 6, 2024, 11:36 AM PDT
3 min read
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-most-accurate-recession-indicators-183601809.html
I predict that China’s housing CR8R will last longer and sink deeper than anyone could have predicted.
Markets
Country Garden’s Home Sales Slump Persists as Aid Fails to Help
– Home sales fell 73% on year to 4.3 billion yuan in June
– Government rescue plan may divert sales demand in some cities
Residential buildings under construction at Country Garden Holdings Co.’s Century Center development in Foshan, China.
Photographer: Qilai Shen/Bloomberg
By Bloomberg News
July 2, 2024 at 3:35 AM PDT
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-07-02/country-garden-s-home-sales-slump-persists-as-aid-fails-to-help
Financial Times
The Big Read
Evergrande Real Estate Group
The foreign investors left stranded in Evergrande’s web of Chinese debt
Overseas bondholders have discovered to their cost that they have little recourse in the Chinese system when boom turns to bust
Thomas Hale and Wang Xueqiao in Changsha and Kaye Wiggins in Hong Kong
June 30 2024
In Changsha, the capital city of Hunan province, Yang has just finished his morning flute practice by the lake next to his apartment. Over his seven decades he has lived in five different housing compounds, but says this one, with its greenery and nearby high-speed rail, is the best.
Yang, who declined to provide his full name, bought into the Changsha Evergrande Oasis, one of many developments in the region, for Rmb615,000 ($85,000) in 2009. A year later, after his apartment was finished, he and his son’s family moved in.
Although the name has since become synonymous with the rise and fall of Chinese real estate, at that time he knew “nothing about Evergrande” or “where its money came from”.
The company was by then expanding rapidly. The year Yang moved in, Changsha Oasis brought in Rmb1.7bn ($230mn) in sales. In 2011, when Evergrande issued over $1bn of bonds settled in dollars to overseas investors, its offer document mentioned the project nine times.
The document, which offers the most comprehensive insights into Evergrande’s funding mechanisms, bore the logos of western investment banking giants such as Bank of America, Deutsche Bank and Citi alongside that of state-owned Bank of China International. More pertinently, they promised coupons of up to 9.25 per cent — a highly attractive return in a post-crisis world of near-zero interest rates.
It was part of a wave of bond issuance that funnelled tens of billions of dollars from western financial institutions, and the savers ultimately behind them, into China’s real estate boom.
Endorsed by Wall Street’s finest and often issued via Hong Kong, with its westernised legal system and investor protections, they represented a financial bridge between China and the wider world. But they offered none of the security usually associated with debt instruments when boom turned to bust.
The 2011 bonds fully matured in 2016, but many more recent issues with similar characteristics are now close to worthless. They are being fought over by lawyers and restructuring experts, and picked over by speculators hoping to salvage some returns via a Hong Kong insolvency process.
Almost three years after Evergrande first missed payments to offshore investors, China’s real estate industry is still struggling. Beijing has refused an overt bailout but has permitted local authorities to buy unsold housing. Many of the projects launched by mainland developers are unfinished, and in some cases under the control of provincial bureaucrats rather than the overseas investors who helped to fund them. In Hunan, local government late last year identified 45 unfinished Evergrande projects alone.
…
I predict FL housing will fall 30% and condos will fall 35% with SW FL Condos/homes leading the way down.
I predict you will be wrong!
Biden – “You Know the Thing” Remix
https://youtu.be/LIWiIWBXBZk?si=o7tXA_q6wb-2PzEi
This shorter 2:10 version is much better.
Biden – “You Know the Thing” Remix
https://youtu.be/n2lTIh536jY?si=g-hF4hyNgnDy313N
I don’t have a timeline for this, but house prices have another 10-15% to fall from where we are now. I mean prices at closing. The fall in wish prices will be a lot higher.
That number might be close nationally, but locally you may have a lot more to drop. Most areas in the West are 30 to 40 percent and more overvalued. No different now than ‘08 thru ‘12. Some areas will get slaughtered.
another 10-15% to fall
What multiple of household income are houses in your area?
The X video shows how little regard these scum bags have for other people. I for one do not believe the damage that has been done to this country by these lying, vote stealing Nazi-Marxists can be understated.
Gang of 4 Venezuelan Migrants Charged with Choking, Robbing Chicago Man on Train at Knifepoint
WARNER TODD HUSTON
3 Jul 2024
Four migrants from Venezuela appeared in court Tuesday after being arrested and charged with choking and robbing a man at knifepoint on a Chicago mass transit Pink Line train in February.
The four accused were identified as Carlos Carreno-Carreno, 20, Wilker Gutierrez-Sierra, 21, Fernando Loyo-Rodriguez, 22, and Yonnier Guasamucare-Garcia, 18, all Venezuelan nationals living in Chicago’s shelter system.
The four Venezuelans were arrested after a Feb. 17 attack on a 49-year-old man from the suburban town of Cicero.
Along with their court date, the Chicago Police Department (CPD) released video of the attack for the first time in the case.
Watch:
According to prosecutors, Carlos Carreno-Carreno motioned for the victim to walk over to him and his three cohorts toward the back of the train car. When the victim did so, Wilker Gutierrez Sierra allegedly closed in behind the victim to prevent him from retreating.
After the four threatened the man, Yonnier Guasamucare-Garcia reportedly jumped the victim and put him in a chokehold with the others began to rifle through the victim’s pockets, police said. Soon enough the victim went unconscious.
The four men allegedly took whatever the man had on his person and left him lying on the floor of the train.
Fortunately, he regained consciousness, but he found he was missing his phone and about $400 in cash along with his wallet.
The migrants tried to exit the train, but the train conductor kept the train at the Pulaski station and several CTA workers corralled the four until the CPD arrived.
Despite several of the men being in the United States for three months or less, three of them already have Chicago area arrest records.
Carreno-Carreno and Loyo-Rodriguez were arrested for retail theft in nearby Morton Grove, and Guasamucare-Garcia was similarly arrested for shoplifting in Rosemont.
As Breitbart News reported, early this year authorities said that arrests of Venezuelans have soared 11,000 percent in Chicago since 2021.
https://www.breitbart.com/crime/2024/07/03/gang-of-4-venezuelan-migrants-charged-choking-robbing-chicago-man-train/
Carlos Carreno-Carreno
That right there is hilarious.
The recession is inevitable, but corruption will still be in play. 0 down loans for everybody. Let’s get the most vulnerable into bankruptcy.
Freddie Mac is experimenting with HELOC lending, which might as well be called middle-class equity extraction placing taxpayers on the hook should things go sideways.
Why does the lending industry always target the least qualified buyers with zero down loans late in the cycle?
Gavin Newsom is at the White House today or tomorrow.
This Is Why Kamala Harris Is The Only Viable Option For Democrats If Biden Drops Out: Melissa DeRosa
Forbes Breaking News
2 hours ago
Democratic strategist Melissa DeRosa joins “Forbes Newsroom” to discuss President Biden’s debate performance and the “gaslighting” that occurred to cover up Biden’s possible mental decline, who is to blame, why Vice President Kamala Harris is the only option besides Biden for Democrats, and what Democrats must do next to still win in 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rg4tGl78Mps
19:41.
3:39
The Media\s role is not to be an activist?
They sure had me fooled.
The Kinks — Got To Be Free:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l7qChiEGugE
Relying On A Sale That May Never Happen (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)
Team Sessa Real Estate
18 minutes ago TORONTO
In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, York Region & Peel Region for week ending June 26, 2024. We also discuss why it might not be the best idea to just assume that you can walk away from your deposit.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U0GJ1zYuTZI
12:35. 15.6 months of inventory on downtown condos.
Will single-family home ownership in America increasingly become the province of large financial corporations?
If so, what does it signify for the future of ongoing efforts by quasi-governmental agencies such as GSEs or the Fed to support the value of housing to purportedly benefit American families?
Yahoo
Benzinga
‘They Already Own 89% Of The S&P 500, And Now They Are Coming After Single-Family Homes In America’ Warns RFK Jr.
Adrian Volenik
Wed, Jul 3, 2024, 7:48 AM PDT
4 min read
In an interview on The Breakfast Radio, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. shared his views on his 2024 presidential run, reparations, inflation, and the housing crisis in America, among many other topics.
His comments about the big corporations causing the housing crisis and affecting young Americans’ chances of buying an affordable home caught significant attention.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/already-own-89-p-500-113144903.html
What you need to know about California housing and corporate landlords
Avatar photo by Ben Christopher March 7, 2024
In summary
Some of California’s most powerful lawmakers have taken aim at corporate landlords this legislative session. The precise impact and effect of institutional investors on California housing is hard to assess.
Some of the state’s most powerful legislators want Big Landlord out of California’s single-family neighborhoods.
The Legislature will consider at least three bills this year to keep so-called institutional investors from gobbling up too many of the state’s widely coveted single-family homes.
Apartment buildings have long been an asset of interest for big investment companies, but the Big Money-owned single-family rental is a 21st Century invention. During the Great Recession new companies began cobbling together rental empires out of the nation’s glut of foreclosed single-family homes.
Defenders of the business model applaud the role it played in propping up local housing markets and quickly filling homes that would have otherwise sat vacant and derelict. Critics liken these investors to financial vultures depriving would-be homeowners of a shot at the American Dream while hoarding the profits of the last decade’s run-up in national home prices and rents.
That debate ratcheted up again during the pandemic when millions of white collar renters, suddenly freed from the office, sought out more space further from the country’s urban cores. Today’s high interest rates have slowed that boom, but most analysts predict that the industry is here to stay, absent new restrictions.
California may be the first to enact some.
“Who are we fighting for? Are we fighting for the corporate interests?” San Diego Assemblymember Chris Ward, chair of the Assembly’s housing committee and author of one of the three bills, said on the Assembly floor last month. “Or are we fighting for Californians, for their dream of homeownership?”
For all the debate, open questions about the industry’s size and its effect on the state’s affordability crisis abound. That’s in part because publicly available data about rental properties is scarce — something some state lawmakers have tried, but failed, to remedy in the past.
…
https://calmatters.org/housing/2024/03/institutional-investors-corporate-landlords/
Is it safe to assume that housing prices can only go up from here on out?
San Diego Union-Tribune
California home prices hit another record high at $908,040
May’s listings were 24% below the 2018-19 average.
CALIFORNIA MEDIAN HOME PRICE (Chart by Flourish)
Author
By Jon Lansner | jlansner@scng.com | Orange County Register
PUBLISHED: June 27, 2024 at 7:24 a.m. | UPDATED: June 28, 2024 at 1:54 p.m.
“How expensive?” tracks measurements of California’s totally unaffordable housing market.
The pain: Yes, California, there’s a new record high for the median sales price for existing, single-family houses.
The source: My trusty spreadsheet reviewed May’s homebuying report from the California Association of Realtors, which includes data dating to 1990, to try to make sense of the continuing upswing.
The pinch
The typical California homebuyer paid $908,040 in May, up 9% in a year and 56% above the 2018-19 average price.
It was the second consecutive month for a record high. The previous peaks were set in March, April and May 2022.
…
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/2024/06/27/california-home-prices-hit-another-record-high-at-908040/
Newsweek
Austin Homeowners ‘Screwed’ as Housing Market Sales Plunge
Published Jul 04, 2024 at 11:35 AM EDT
Updated Jul 04, 2024 at 3:03 PM EDT
Current Time 0:16
By Giulia Carbonaro
US News Reporter
Austin homeowners hoping to sell their properties for as good a price as they would have fetched a few years ago are now “screwed,” according to local realtor Jeremy Knight, as the city’s market is flooded with new inventory and buyers become more selective.
…
https://www.newsweek.com/austin-homeowners-screwed-housing-market-sales-plunge-1921160
Is a Housing Correction or Crash Ahead? See Where Home Prices Are Poised To Fall Next
(Photo-illustration by Realtor.com; Source: Getty Images)
Trends
By Evan Wyloge
Jun 29, 2024
It’s been about two years since mortgage rates hiked up, slamming the brakes on what had been a historically racy housing market.
But even as the number of sales has turned sharply downward, home prices have broadly continued to tick up nationally, squeezing more affordability from what is already one of the most unaffordable moments in the housing market in decades.
Yet in recent weeks, housing experts have been speculating that the laws of supply and demand may be finally catching up to market conditions. Some are forecasting a correction, or even a crash.
According to Technical Traders strategist Chris Vermeulen, recent trends in new construction look to be a “sign that things are really breaking down.”
What are the odds that these predictions might come true?
When we dig into the data, what’s immediately clear is the housing market is no monolith. Some markets thrive, while others wilt.
Out of the country’s 150 largest metros, 24 are already seeing year-over-year listing price declines as of May. Of those, 13 are also down compared with two years ago.
Might this trickle of descending prices turn into a torrent that pushes America’s entire housing market into official correction territory? To pinpoint the answer, it can help to know where prices are poised to plummet next.
Where prices are poised to fall
…
https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/housing-correction-crash-where-home-prices-are-poised-to-fall-next/
It’s different this time:
For the first time I can recall, the NAR is predicting a housing crash… which would work well for their members, since end users generally can’t afford current prices.
Real Estate
The real estate market is in for sharp correction with losses that could take a decade to recover from, strategist says
Jennifer Sor
Jul 4, 2024, 8:30 AM ET
– Brace for a steep correction in home and commercial building prices.
– That’s according to Chris Vermeulen, a strategist who sees a wave of real estate distress on the horizon.
– Foreclosure activity will rise as the economy slows and unemployment edges higher, he said.
America’s property market is due for a correction.
That’s according to Chris Vermeulen, a longtime strategist and the founder of The Technical Traders. He thinks real estate is on the verge of a steep price correction, and he’s forecasting that both residential and commercial properties could soon experience a wave of distress, causing prices to plunge around 30% in both markets.
“People are going to have to start to sell their homes,” Vermeulen told Business Insider in an interview this week. “What we’re starting to see if people starting to realize they can’t afford their mortgages, or they need to downgrade. A lot of people are struggling financially and this is really the tip of the iceberg. Give it another two or three years — that’s when the real estate market gets hit the most.”
His forecast is among the more dire sounded by real estate commentators in recent months. Most observers expect home prices to stay elevated over the near- to medium-term, but the signs pointing to a big move down are beginning to add up, Vermeulen said, noting a weak backdrop for the US economy that could end up hitting consumers — and particularly, mortgage holders — hard.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/real-estate-crash-home-prices-correction-foreclosures-mortgage-defaults-2024-7
Predicting housing bubbles involves considering various economic indicators, trends, and expert analyses. Some experts predict a moderation in housing prices due to high interest rates and increased housing supply. However, localized bubbles in certain high-demand areas may persist.
Just as they did in China?
Good to have you back, AlbuquerqueDan.