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The Day Of The Multi-Offer, Bidding War Craze Are Gone

A report from Boston.com on Massachusetts. “‘Buyers are exercising a little more caution and restraint than a year ago,’ said James Major, Greater Boston Association of Realtors president. ‘The pool of buyers is still large, but after several years of record low inventory, we saw listings begin to climb this fall. And with home prices and mortgage rates both up steadily from a year ago, we’re seeing less urgency and willingness from buyers to make offers above asking price, enter bidding wars, or waive contingencies than at any time in the prior three years. In many communities, it appears prices are likely at or near their peak.'”

From Business Insider on New York. “Home sales in the Hamptons slumped for the entire year of 2018 as inventories swelled to their highest level in more than a decade, indicating the US housing market is falling deeper into a weak stretch.”

“According to Douglas Elliman, home sales in the Hamptons plunged 34.8% year-over-year in the fourth quarter to 360 units, booking the fourth consecutive quarterly decline. As a result, inventories swelled by 81.9% to 2,197 units, the highest level since the firm began tracking the data in 2006.”

“‘Like the city, Hamptons sales fell year over year each quarter in 2018 as the market reset,’ said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. ‘Sellers remained anchored to the stronger market conditions of the past few years and their confusion over the disconnect between the housing market and the US economy.'”

The Atlanta Journal Constitution on Georgia. “The housing market’s slow shift from a seller’s dream toward a state of equilibrium continued last month as the number of potential buyers in metro Atlanta dropped and the number of homes for sale grew.”

“The more homes for sale, the less of an auction-like atmosphere, agents say. ‘What we are seeing is that the day of the multi-offer, bidding war craze of last summer, those days are gone,’ said Jessica Houghton, an Atlanta realtor with Compass. ‘I think there’s been some volatility in interest rates in the third quarter last year that made for some hesitancy about buying.'”

From Mansion Global on Colorado. “The luxury housing market in the ski resort town of Aspen, Colorado, went downhill in the fourth quarter of 2018. The average and median prices in the luxury sector, comprising of the top 10% sales during the quarter, both fell year-over-year to approximately $12.5 million, according to a Douglas Elliman report.”

“Aspen buyers seemed to share a similar sentiment as those in other major luxury markets, such as New York or Los Angeles, said Stephen Kotler, chief executive of Douglas Elliman’s Western Region. ‘Buyers are very price sensitive. There are buyers out there, but only reasonably priced homes will sell,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 71 Comments

    1. Hey, quit pickin’ on communities that are suffering from “burnt toa$t $yndrome$!” . … Besides, there is plenty of other place$ that aren’t exactly having a $ellers Paradise!

  2. ‘What we are seeing is that the day of the multi-offer, bidding war craze of last summer, those days are gone’

    Last summer. How many red-hot markets took a dive since last spring or last summer? And a blow-out top followed by a quick retreat is a classic sign of a bubble popping.

        1. There’$ room for improvement$! … Coming $oon! …Folk$ with predi$po$ition$ for $helter.$hacks @ any co$t, price$, or down payment requirement$!

          Chinese Scientists Have Cloned a Genetically Altered Primate For The First Time
          Mike Mcrae | 24 Jan 2019 | sciencealert

          “They also show signs of anxiety and depre$$ion, along with schizophrenia-like behaviour$.

          “Di$order of circadian rhythm could lead to many human di$ea$es, …”

    2. Last summer I was dumping some of my real estate to pools of HGTV horny buyers and multiple bids. Now that same market in CA is Cricket Town, USA. You are very correct about the blow off top followed by crickets. You have been nailing it thus far. Absolutely nailing it.

      1. Last summer I was dumping some of my real estate to pools of HGTV horny buyers and multiple bids.

        You’re a God among men.

    3. “…a blow-out top followed by a quick retreat is a classic sign of a bubble popping…”

      When do you think the stawk market will experience this blow-out top?

  3. ‘we’re seeing less urgency and willingness from buyers to make offers above asking price, enter bidding wars, or waive contingencies than at any time in the prior three years. In many communities, it appears prices are likely at or near their peak’

    So Jimmy it’s the worst possible time to buy a shack in Boston, got it!

    1. “…In many communities, it appears prices are likely at or near their peak..”

      The mls is littered with overpriced dreamers. Most of these shacks will never sell, and the comps will be set by new listings looking to cut bait and get the heck out, whatever the market price.

    1. Luckily nonbank lending is not much of an issue here in America. Plus what happens in China, stays in China.

      The Wall Street Journal
      Heard on the Street
      China Risks Real Hard Landing This Time
      Beijing’s crackdown on shadow banking has gone overboard. Some backtracking looks necessary.
      Old pattern…Chinese rates have declined sharply
      Source: CEIC
      By Nathaniel Taplin
      Updated Jan. 23, 2019
      6:15 a.m. ET

      China’s economy is at risk of its long-feared “hard landing”—a rapid slowdown in growth that would hit employment hard and could trigger big problems in global debt and currency markets.

      The reason isn’t, as the Trump administration would like to believe, the U.S.’s trade offensive. Instead, Beijing has overdone its own crackdown on nonbank “shadow finance”—without opening alternative channels for private-sector borrowers, who often struggle to obtain bank credit. As a result, Chinese credit growth has continued to decelerate, despite nine months of significant central bank easing. If it doesn’t turn back up soon, producer-price inflation could turn negative—causing big problems in the heavily indebted industrial sector.

      The mushrooming of Chinese shadow banking was an unfortunate, but necessary, byproduct of a banking system that has grown more state dominated since 2010. Private companies account for about two-thirds of the economy but receive only about a third of net new lending. It’s little wonder they have turned increasingly to unofficial channels to get loans.
      …

      1. So they’ve gone from partying at the punchbowl to needing the punchbowl to survive. Where have I heard this before? Oh, right, opioids.

    2. Markets
      Holding Pattern May Break as Stocks Buzz the Tower: Taking Stock
      By Brad Olesen
      January 24, 2019, 4:25 AM PST

      We’re in a fitting holding pattern, if you will, in the S&P ahead of a slew of airlines earnings this morning that include AAL, LUV, JBLU (a mini hedge fund hotel with 12% ownership). These key economic harbingers also happen to have a window seat to the impacts of the Government shutdown and how that may be affecting the industry. Southwest, for its part, just said that they are seeing negative revenue impacts thus far in January, already estimated at up to $15 million.

      This echoes comments from hotels like Marriott, for example, which cited double-digit declines in its business in the D.C. area, according to their global chief commercial officer in an interview with Yahoo finance earlier this week.
      …

    4. Slowing begets further slowing.

      Economy & Politics
      U.S. leading indicators drop 0.1% in December in sign of slower economy
      By Jeffry Bartash
      Published: Jan 24, 2019 10:07 a.m. ET

      The leading economic index fell 0.1% in December, perhaps another sign the U.S economy has slowed, according to the Conference Board. The index fell in two of the three final months in 2018. “The US LEI declined slightly in December and the recent moderation in the LEI suggests that the US economic growth rate may slow down this year,” said Ataman Ozyildirim, director of economic research at the privately run board.
      …

      1. Auchtung Babee!

        German bond yields inch closer to zero, defying Wall Street calls

        Published: Jan 24, 2019 | MarketWatch

        “Bund$ have three things going for them: low and falling inflation, decreased issuance as Berlin runs fi$cal surplu$es, and falling expectation$ of ECB tightening,”

        1. cops just want higher gas taxes’

          Its a pension thing , complicated shell game with funds. Need a new gas tax because old existing gas tax is not going for road repair anymore. They don’t say we need billions for pensions instead they say roads will fail and tax payer safety is number one priory.

        2. Public college tuition is higher because states are struggling with their pension promises, and the feds validate this shell game by increasing student loan limits.

    2. They are better off wasting their energy on popping out fewer children. I just saw that there is a new article in Lancet (medical journal) about we all need to eat more plant-based* because we won’t be able to feed to world’s population otherwise. I’m not that much of a steak addict, but I see no reason to go vegan so that someone in India/Africa can pop out 5 kids.

      ————-
      *never did like “plant-based.” IMO the vegans are just trying to change their name because vegan has such a negative connotation. Strictly speaking, all diets are plant-based.

      2. Many vegans are cray-cray. It goes way beyond diet as some even eschew having pets, etc. A lot of these people are militant and difficult to get along with. They can only co-exist with other extremists. Even some within their ranks realize what a problem it has become.

        1. Adam Carrola used to say “Have you ever noticed that chicks who really LOOOOVE animals really hate most people?”

          My ex loved animals and treated them like babies. Eventually I concluded that she was trying to provide the life for them that she wished someone would provide for her. And I like animals. But I don’t treat them like babies.

      3. “I’m not that much of a steak addict, but I see no reason to go vegan so that someone in India/Africa can pop out 5 kids.”

        Gates is busy with his health care philanthropy, so eventually you will have at least one of ’em in your face.

      4. A shift from beef and pork to chicken is a huge reduction in the resources and land. A shift from chicken to eggs is another massive shift. The last shift is from eggs to legumes for protein. The challenge will be to make meat-less options something that are as addicting as Cheetos. Once the vegan mafia cracks the code on that, people will want to be vegetarian/vegan.

        1. And bugs. We should definitely be eating insects. Cricket flour and all that. Loaded with tons of vitamins and B12.

          1. Competent and diligent farmers are the scarce commodity, not land. Having fewer kids reduces resources available for food production.

    3. FYI, the email came out last Friday and got plenty of media attention. The gist of this article is to criticize Musk’s management.

      I wonder if Elon was puffing a nice doobie while he sent out the email?

      1. Why rooting for Elon and Tesla to fail? I don’t understand this. The model 3 was the best selling luxury car in the US in 2018, and it was American made to boot. This is phenomenal considering domestic auto makers have all but retreated to SUVs and trucks basically waiving the white flag and saying they can’t compete with the Japanese and Koreans.

    4. I watched part of an interview with him and he has really bad nervous tics. He seemed like he was on some weird drugs or something.

      1. Guys like that are never in the center of the autistic (or any other) spectrum. I expect some weirdness.

  8. I’ve been carefully watching rentals in a certain area lately and hadn’t paid too much attention to the for sale stuff other than to note that nothing seemed to be moving. Got bored last night and took a closer look. If it all goes through, it looks like the people who held their price through the holidays may be able to escape with their near-peak price before things collapse in Folsom. Almost all that stuff is now pending that looked like it wasn’t going to sell last fall. So…there are still desperate buyers out there who can’t wait any more. At least in the best spots.

    The only positive note is that bare land does really seem to be stacking up even with some serious price drops.

    1. “Almost all that stuff is now pending that looked like it wasn’t going to sell last fall.”

      It’s somewhat paradoxical that the falling long-term interest rates on extreme economic pessimism may have served to encourage a few more knifecatchers to step up.

    2. So…there are still desperate buyers out there who can’t wait any more. At least in the best spots.”

      they are not paying attention to the big picture

  9. I found this on the Net …

    “Glassdoor reviews
    I happened to see an article in the Jan 22nd WSJ “How Companies Secretly Boost Their Glassdoor Ratings” at https://www.wsj.com/articles/companies-manipulate-glassdoor-by-inflating-rankings-and-pressuring-employees-11548171977 (not sure how much you can read if you’re not a WSJ subscriber) about some companies pushing their employees to give 5 start reviews in order to pump their score up.

    “Last summer, employees of Guaranteed Rate Inc. posted a stream of negative reviews about the mortgage broker on Glassdoor, a company-ratings website.

    “An American sweatshop,” read a one-star review in June. “Worst company I ever worked for,” read another in July. The company’s rating on Glassdoor, which is determined by employee feedback, fell to 2.6 stars out of 5.

    Concerned that negative reviews could hurt recruiting, Guaranteed Rate CEO Victor Ciardelli instructed his team to enlist employees likely to post positive reviews, said a person familiar with his instructions. In September and October these employees flooded Glassdoor with hundreds of five-star ratings. The company rating now sits at 4.1.

    Glassdoor has become an important arbiter of employee sentiment in today’s highly competitive job market. A Wall Street Journal investigation shows it can be manipulated by employers trying to sway opinion in their favor.”

    FWIW.

    1. Go to Guaranteed Rate’s website and you will be greeted with this …

      “Home Loans Built On Trust”

      “Our 95% Customer Satisfaction score speaks for itself.”

      Bahahahaha … the best ratings that money can buy.

      “Mortgages, Loans, Home Buying, Refinance Mortgage Company | Guaranteed Rate”
      https://www.guaranteedrate.com/

    3. FWIW

      My former employer did something like this regarding a state level ranking service. They sent daily emails reminding us to vote for them. Daily.

        1. Did you respond with “after you give me a raise and start treating me better, maybe I will?”

          Another interesting (I think) Louis Rossmann video regarding employee treatment at an Apple subcontractor who employs mostly Vietnamese in Houston (they don’t complain), and what kind of repair you will receive directly from Apple, which you might quite rationally think should be the best:
          youtube.com/watch?v=CBWvB-9hXQE

        2. Glass door should have some sort of flag that alerts readers of instances when companies are acting in this way so that that at least there is a disclosure of potential skewing of the data. In any event, self-selected anonymous reviews aren’t a random sample, but it at least the glass door should be one set of random self-selected employees vs. another companies random self-selected employees.

  10. BIL not selling house to rent because of shrewd market timing hes selling because hes broke wants to borrow 5K to get a rental. Don’t think so.

    Never post vacations and crap you buy on face book if you plan to ask to borrow money in the future.

    recession ahead

    1. Tell us more about the situation. how can a homeowner not have 5K extra bucks… Does he have equity?

      2. IDK ? Something about needs the money now to get rental won’t get equity until deal closes. Needs to be in the rental before the deal closes ? I got info second hand. Also couldn’t understand why seller has to pay buyers RE agent. We loaned 400 bucks to him years ago never got it back so no he’s not getting 5K for some weird story about hes going to have to live in his car for a few days.

        1. But, he assured you that he’ll get 250K in cash equity once sale is completed.. so come on just give him the monies. s/

    1. Ahhh, Scarsdale. Went to a friend of a friend’s house there expecting to be wowed. Nothing special, just expensive and that was in the mid-90’s, or earlier, can’t remember exactly).

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