It Seems Like Nobody Has Really Adjusted Their Expectations To A Market In Which They Aren’t Going To Make A Profit
A report from the Star Tribune in Minnesota. “Joan and Mark Robertson seemed poised for short-term rental success when the Bloomington couple bought a townhouse minutes from Disney World two years ago and spent about $15,000 on upgrades. For the first six months or so, business was steady. Then bookings flatlined, and the Robertsons are now selling the property and forfeiting the short-term rental game. ‘When we first got it, things looked really good,’ Joan Robertson said. ‘But as time went on, it just got worse.’ Part of that is a correction from the post-quarantine travel surge and a glut of new short-term rental properties hitting the market, said Jamie Lane, chief economist at analytics firm AirDNA. With more rentals than guests to fill them, hosts are struggling to stand out among thousands of listings.”
From KUTV. “Insurance companies are dropping Utah homeowners because of increased wildfire risk. Jon Watkins, a homeowner in the Edelweiss neighborhood of Suncrest in Draper, moved into the new community almost six years ago. He loves being above the inversion and close to nature. ‘Our insurance company said in 60 days we’re dropping you. Good luck,; Watkins said. He later received a second letter informing his mortgage company that the insurer was dropping him. ‘Our stomach dropped because we’ve had the same home insurance since we bought the house,’ he said. ‘They’ve been really good to us, and we haven’t had any fires in the area. There haven’t been any big complaints. I didn’t understand why it was happening now.'”
“With the help of two brokers, Watkins started searching for a new insurer. He found some companies are limiting coverage or no longer insuring in his area. ‘Both brokers said they didn’t know what to tell me. No one wants to insure that area,’ he said. ‘They had never heard of something like this where it was so difficult to find a new insurer. They were dealing with it for other people in my community too.'”
The Palm Beach Post in Florida. “Owners of the Beach Sound Condominium on Jupiter Island, fearful of multi-million dollar repair bills, have agreed to sell their four-story, 12-unit building to a partnership affiliated with Kolter Homes, according to documents filed with Palm Beach County. But for the sale to take place, the builder wants the county to change the zoning code to allow a bigger building to be built without the developer having to seek a variance. The transaction could be the first forced sale resulting from the new state law adopted in response to the deadly collapse of the Champlain Towers South condominium in Surfside on June 24, 2021. The problem for the partnership is that neighboring condos, concerned about the negative impact a taller building would have on their views, are strongly opposed to any zoning change.”
“County Zoning Commissioner Sam Caliendo said condo owners who cannot afford to repair their buildings need help. Michelle Silvester, an owner of one of the condos at Beach Sound, agrees. ‘I’m not sure what happens if we cannot sell out,’ she added. ‘It makes no sense to put millions of dollars into our building.'”
The Nevada Appeal. “Sierra Nevada Realtors reports on Washoe, Lyon, Storey, Douglas and Churchill counties along with Carson City. Across the six regions, SNR reported 10.3 percent more active single-family home inventory compared to last month. ‘As summer continues, inventory is expanding, with more options available to prospective home buyers,’ said SNR President Robert Bartshe.”
The Real Deal on California. “Maximus Real Estate Partners is in default on about $1.8 billion in loans tied to San Francisco’s largest The 152-acre, 3,200-unit multifamily complex known as Parkmerced was recently appraised at $1.4 billion, about $400 million less than the amount owed and down $700 million from 2019, the servicer said. Maximus refinanced the property in 2019 with $1.5 billion in senior financing from Barclays and Citi — packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities deals — and a $275 million mezzanine loan from Aimco, which has since been sold at a loss., according to new servicer commentary reported by ratings agency Morningstar.”
NBC on California. “With San Francisco facing record high commercial vacancies, one mayoral candidate has a plan to reshape the city’s business district and surrounding areas. Democrat Mark Farrell, former interim mayor of San Francisco, is proposing a 20-year vision to revitalize the city’s downtown. Public safety is a major concern, as certain parts of downtown San Francisco are rife with drug use and homeless encampments. ‘Right now the problem is downtown,’ Farrell said. ‘We don’t have people working here. And it is a ghost town. And what that translates into is a loss of sales tax revenue, property tax revenue that is decreasing in major ways when buildings are selling for 10 or 20 cents on the dollar. At the end of the day, those resulting commercial property taxes are putting a massive hole in our budget here in San Francisco.'”
“On Tuesday, Elon Musk said he’s moving the headquarters for X, formerly known as Twitter, to Austin, Texas, from San Francisco. X had already been looking to sublease most of its building in the city, and Musk posted on X on Tuesday, ‘Have had enough of dodging gangs of violent drug addicts just to get in and out of the building.'”
KOMO in Washington. “It’s been a rash of gunshots, shootings, and gun battles in the city’s North Seattle neighborhood, particularly along Aurora Avenue North. An 18-year-old woman was shot Saturday in north Seattle along Aurora Avenue North and Northgate Way. Seattle fire said they treated her and she was in stable condition. Police said a vehicle pulled up to the 18-year-old woman, shot her and took off. Around the same time and a few blocks south on Aurora Avenue, multiple residents said they heard multiple gunshots in another apparent shooting a few blocks south at Aurora Avenue and 98th Street North. One woman who works and lives at the intersection said her neighbor heard the shots and took cover in the nearby alley until it stopped. ‘People just come down this street and just start shooting, just blazing,’ said Terry, ‘It’s ridiculous it don’t make sense. They don’t care about nobody else when you shoot like that, it’s not right, but the way the world is now they don’t have any compassion and don’t care.'”
The Wall Street Journal. “The commercial real-estate meltdown is spilling over into the bond market. Defaults are mounting in a favorite Wall Street mortgage-bond investment, setting off fresh alarms about the future of offices and malls in cities across the U.S. There are about $260 billion of the deals, known as single-asset, single-borrower bonds, held by investors such as banks, insurers, pensions and mutual funds. Landlords, often private-equity firms, used that money to purchase skyscrapers, shopping centers and other properties. The losses are particularly jarring for investors because credit-rating firms initially gave many of the bonds triple-A ratings—higher than even U.S. Treasury bonds. The financial models behind the ratings never forecast property prices falling below the value of the debt. When the pandemic gutted demand for offices, private-equity firms abandoned near-vacant buildings and their debts, leaving bondholders holding the bag.”
“Owners of a bond backed by a Blackstone-owned building took a loss after the property was sold in April, the first such impairment ever, according to research by Barclays. The market is headed for more turbulence as more triple-A bonds get hit, analysts say. ‘There are at least 10 other deals likely to take losses,’ said Ed Reardon, a managing director of securitized research at Deutsche Bank. SASB bonds backed by malls and offices are already in default in Chicago, Los Angeles, New York, Philadelphia and San Francisco. Some properties are still hanging on but struggling to attract tenants, pushing prices of their lower-rated bonds below 20 cents on the dollar.”
CTV Ottawa in Canada. “CTV Morning Live asked Jason Pilon, broker of Record Pilon Group, whether now is the right time to buy or sell your home. When it comes to buyers, he notes, the competition is not so fierce right now, noting that there are options to choose from. ‘You’re in the driver seat right now,’ he said while noting the benefits for buyers.”
From Reuters. “With many Canadian homeowners facing a sharp rise in mortgage payments, many of them have decided to bail, resulting in the highest number of Toronto housing units for sale in more than a decade and signaling a big drop in prices in the coming months. Fueling the surge in available properties are homeowners and investors who bought houses and apartments five years ago at record-low mortgage rates, aiming to grab a piece of Toronto’s lucrative rental market. But those mortgages are now coming up for renewal in an interest rate environment starkly different than it was five years ago.”
“Next year, roughly C$300 billion ($219.33 billion) of mortgages at chartered banks will come up for renewal. ‘Some of them are investors who now just want to walk away from their units because they can’t afford it,’ said Carl Gomez, chief economist at CoStar Group. At the same time, many are also reluctant to lower asking prices and book losses on their investment, he said, at least for now. ‘There’s just limited willingness to lose money,’ said Daniel Foch, director of economic research at RARE Real Estate. ‘It seems like nobody has really adjusted their expectations to a market in which they aren’t going to make a profit,’ he said.”
Blackpool Gazette in the UK. “Residents have blasted developers after paying £550,000 to live on a ‘desolate’ newbuild estate which remains unfinished and has been plagued with problems – including poor drainage and unfinished road surfaces. In a video report, Lin Glover, who bought her home in 2021, complains of uneven pavements, giant potholes and electrical faults – but says that despite numerous calls and letters to the authorities, nothing gets done. She says: ‘The roads and paths should have been completed 18 months ago. They have marked them up five times but have to be remarked because nobody comes along and does anything. I’m ashamed when people come to visit me here and have to drive onto the estate. It is just dreadful.'”
“Homeowners began moving into brand new modern homes on the multimillion pound Lilly Hay estate in Emstrey, Shrops, back in 2019. Lin adds: ‘People are complaining about their cars because of the roads, and as you come into the estate, there are four inches of difference between the road surfaces as well as holes everywhere – everybody is very, very unhappy.’ Another resident, who doesn’t want to be named, said he and his wife moved in with their two children three years ago. He said: ‘Cars are breaking, there’s a huge dip on one of the roads that is dangerous, and using pushchairs is a big issue for a lot of people – one of the kids fell off their bike not long ago. We have made numerous complaints but hear nothing back.'”
The NL Times. “Since at least 2018, a criminal network connected to the cocaine trade has bought or brokered hundreds of Amsterdam homes through mortgage fraud. The Amsterdam authorities discovered this last year during an investigation into drug hiding places. The homes are used to store drugs, as safe houses for criminals, and to house migrant workers, the Amsterdam police and Public Prosecution Service (OM) told the Financieele Dagblad. Detectives accidentally discovered the criminal network during an investigation into the builders of hidden spaces for drugs, a financial crime team leader of the Amsterdam police told FD. They asked to remain anonymous.”
“‘During that investigation, we came across a real estate agent who offered warehouses and homes to the drug world.’ A follow-up investigation revealed that this realtor was the kingpin in a criminal organization specializing in committing mortgage fraud, the detective said. The criminal network included the real estate agent, mortgage advisors, and administration officers. They arranged false employer statements, fake salary slips, and enhanced companies’ annual accounts in order to deceive banks. ‘We even saw fictitious monthly wage payments made to the applicants’ bank accounts,’ the detective said. ‘Anything to give the mortgage lender the illusion that the customer had a well-paid job.’ The criminal network charged 7,000 to 12,000 euros per mortgage on top of the brokerage and commission that the customer paid to the broker and mortgage advisor.”
“According to the police, this criminal network took out dozens of mortgages using false documents in 2023. The police suspect that is the tip of the iceberg, as the group has been active on a large scale since at least 2018. In May, the police arrested ten people as part of this investigation. Since then, investigators have identified another 12 suspects. All of them work in real estate, at administration offices, or as mortgage advisors. They are suspected of fraud, forgery, and money laundering.”
The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “A fresh threat is emerging for home builder customers caught in the state’s housing construction gridlock as looming bank deadlines put loans and livelihoods under threat. The passing of construction loan deadlines means many Perth people are now paying principal and interest on loans rather than interest only – for incomplete homes, and on top of rent. Despite paying both principal and interest on her unfinished home in the new outer north-eastern suburb of Bushmead, Brianna Murphy counts herself as one of the lucky ones: she can avoid rent by staying at home with her parents. The 29-year-old signed a contract with BGC in 2020, with a construction deadline of June 2023.”
“When the construction loan expired she chose not to apply for an extension of the interest-only period, reasoning that she could use the money her parents were saving her on rent by beginning to pay down the mortgage. ‘I’m essentially paying for my mortgage now, but I don’t have the freedom of … a homeowner,’ she said. ‘It’s a pretty pivotal time in your life, your late 20s, early 30s and living at home puts a spanner in the works a little bit; you want to settle down and focus on the next stage of your life.'”
“Another BGC client, who would only speak to WAtoday on condition of anonymity, has been waiting for his northern suburbs build for around three years. Already unable to pay for both the monthly loan repayments and rent, he moved out of his rental and has had to stay with various friends. In trying to cope with his expenses he has racked up a credit card debt of more than $30,000. ‘From someone who had a good credit score, my credit rating is now ruined,’ he said. ‘All I want is a place to live and a place I can call my home.'”
“Another BGC client building in Mandurah, also speaking anonymously, described the stress of being forced to work up to 100 hours a week after his bank said they could not extend his loan’s interest-only deadline. The man and his wife, who have two daughters at home, are now paying up to $6500 a month in both rent and mortgage payments. ‘It’s been a living nightmare,’ he said. ‘We just have to keep our heads down and keep working.'”
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‘Maximus Real Estate Partners is in default on about $1.8 billion in loans tied to San Francisco’s largest The 152-acre, 3,200-unit multifamily complex known as Parkmerced was recently appraised at $1.4 billion, about $400 million less than the amount owed and down $700 million from 2019, the servicer said. Maximus refinanced the property in 2019 with $1.5 billion in senior financing from Barclays and Citi — packaged into commercial mortgage-backed securities deals — and a $275 million mezzanine loan from Aimco, which has since been sold at a loss’
How do those 5% cap rates look now?
Oh dear….
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/foreign-buyers-are-fleeing-the-u-s-housing-market-with-sales-at-a-record-low-10b442e2?
If MarketWatch is reporting something like that it’s gotta be pretty bad and a lot worse than what they’re reporting.
With more rentals than guests to fill them, hosts are struggling to stand out among thousands of listings.”
Die, speculator scum.
No one wants to insure that area,’ he said.
Gosh, I sure hope that’s not an impediment when it comes time to sell your alligator.
“…Insurance companies are dropping Utah homeowners because of increased wildfire risk…” “…Our insurance company said in 60 days we’re dropping you….”
Another Wednesday, another out-of-control holding costs story.
More Wednesdays to come.
More Wednesdays to come.
Many, many more Wednesday to come.
“There’s never been a better time to buy real estate downstream from the 3 Gorges Dam.” — NAR of China
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nl-EWIg431k&t=16s
These flood events are just incredible.
Democrat Mark Farrell, former interim mayor of San Francisco, is proposing a 20-year vision to revitalize the city’s downtown.
As long as SF libtards go on voting for more of the same, that’s exactly what they’re going to get.
Unhinged leftists who feel compelled to share their TDS on social media are learning there might be consequences.
https://x.com/libsoftiktok/status/1812940995644039438
In reverse cancel parlance, this is known as “being hoisted upon your own petard.” However, I hope it doesn’t last as long as the first cancel culture did.
It would be a darn shame if the public union workers (D) who presided over Chicago’s ruination discover the gold-plated pensions they were promised won’t be forthcoming.
https://www.thecentersquare.com/illinois/article_8235fa1c-4217-11ef-9e8c-a31e2118593f.html
Kind of awkward when globalist scum media can’t bring itself to tell readers WHY retailers are closing en masse due to rampant theft and criminality in commie-controlled doom loop cities.
https://www.cnn.com/2024/06/27/business/walgreens-closures/index.html
There are about $260 billion of the deals, known as single-asset, single-borrower bonds, held by investors such as banks, insurers, pensions and mutual funds.
Fear not, investors. Fauxahontus is your bulwark against any systemic crisis in the banking sector.
. ‘But as time went on, it just got worse.’ Part of that is a correction from the post-quarantine travel surge and a glut of new short-term rental properties hitting the market
Not to mention that many are broke as a joke and will be staycationing this year.
“County Zoning Commissioner Sam Caliendo said condo owners who cannot afford to repair their buildings need help.”
I assume Mr. Caliendo means taxpayers need to help
At the end of the day, those resulting commercial property taxes are putting a massive hole in our budget here in San Francisco.’”
I would love to see the Revenue forecasts/projections for the next 2-4 years on these big cities. I believe the “leaders: don’t really understand the potential shortfalls. If your CRE values fall 70-80%, how can possibly make that shortfall up and not increase taxes elsewhere so much it drives businesses and homeowners out of town. I guess you could cut overpaid, mostly nonproductive Headcount but, I doubt that will be the first choice as a solution. In the mortgage business when interest rates rose and volumes fell, the first choice was usually to cut headcount.
I guess you could cut overpaid, mostly nonproductive Headcount but, I doubt that will be the first choice as a solution.
They will start by cutting frivolous spending, like out of town travel. Then unfilled jobs will be cancelled. But that only goes so far. At some point there will have to be pink slips.
And this isn’t just San Francisco. This is happening in metros across the country. Dumver leadership also has plans to spend money they don’t have to “revitalize” downtown. Curiously those plans never have a strategy to deal with the homeless and the fentanyl heads who have turned downtown areas into no go zones.
The Eagle City Council quietly has adopted a resolution declaring Eagle a nonsanctuary city and banning the use of taxpayer funds for services to immigrants who lack permanent legal status.
The resolution was a part of the council’s consent agenda and was approved Tuesday, July 9, without discussion from the council, Mayor Brad Pike or the public.
According to the resolution, Eagle residents had expressed concern over the transport of immigrants into Idaho and Ada County which “compromise the safety, well-being and resources of the city residents.”
Dana Biberston, spokesperson for the city of Eagle, told the Idaho Statesman by phone that the declaration was mostly a fiscal policy and that it was the city’s right to make it.
“The citizens of the city of Eagle have expressed a desire for the city to not use any taxpayer resources to fund any services relating to undocumented immigrants,” according to the resolution.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/eagle-declares-itself-a-nonsanctuary-city-bars-services-for-immigrants-what-that-means/ar-BB1q4hbi
Build the wall, deport them ALL.
At a presidential debate party he organized last month in western Miami-Dade’s vecindarios, Juan Fiol didn’t hesitate when asked why former President Donald Trump’s White House comeback campaign has drawn legions of Latino voters.
“In Miami, it’s always been, and will always be, until there is freedom in Cuba, against socialism,” he said, pointing to the largely Cuban-American, and older, crowd at the Mojitos restaurant that evening. “That’s our number one reason, and it’s always been our reason and it’s always going to be our reason.”
It’s a mantra that has duct-taped many of South Florida’s virulently anti-communist exiles to the Republican Party, yes. But across the United States today, the Grand Old Party, polls show, has the attention of a broader swath of Latino voters who represent a multitude of nationalities, interests, beliefs, life experiences and cultural differences.
“There is not a ‘Latino’ vote. Latinos vote in different ways,” said Jaime Florez, the Republican National Committee’s Hispanic outreach director. “And at this particular moment, we’re not just Latinos. We’re already Americans, we live in this country, and we’re facing a very difficult economy and many other things.”
So in 2024, Florez said, the GOP is stressing everyday life issues – inflation, crime and the unfairness of an “open border.”
“We’re using the same message for the rest of the country because what is really moving Hispanics is the reality in the country,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/republican-party-s-play-for-latino-voters-is-paying-off-hispanics-explain-why/ar-BB1q8hHj
“a broader swath of Latino voters who represent a multitude of nationalities, interests, beliefs, life experiences and cultural differences”
Unpossible.
Real Journalists (your betters) have assured than anybody who looks brown and/or speaks Spanish is a unanimous monolith, no exceptions allowed.
Real Journalists.
Hispanics like their babies straight… and alive.
Live ones mean section 8.
Medicaid and SNAP too!
And possibly citizenship. Whew!
The fight over whether President Joe Biden should remain Democrats’ presidential nominee has moved to a new phase, centering on whether the party should accelerate his official nomination through a virtual roll call as early as next week — or wait to do the honors in person at their August convention.
Biden supporters want to move forward quickly with the virtual roll call, saying the plan has been set and approved for weeks — long before the presidential debate in June — and is necessary because of Republican moves in Ohio that once threatened to keep the president off the state’s ballot.
But Ohio lawmakers moved to close that loophole in late May. With Biden’s spot on the ballot now secured, Biden’s critics say, a virtual roll call process now amounts to an attempt to ram through his nomination.
California Democratic Rep. Jared Huffman circulated a letter on Monday among his House Democratic colleagues calling on the party to hold off on a virtual roll call process and wait until the convention. “To try to squelch debate and jam this through is a power play of the highest order,” Huffman told the New York Times. The newly formed Pass the Torch group also released a statement on Monday blasting the virtual roll call as an “unjustified push” to ram through a Biden nomination.
Republican leaders in Ohio, meanwhile, say the ballot nominating issue is now moot and blasted Democrats for trying to gin up more panic.
“The issue is resolved in Ohio, and Democratic activists should stop trying to scapegoat Ohio for their party dysfunction,” said Ben Kindel, a spokesperson for Ohio’s Secretary of State Frank LaRose. Kindel shared with Vox a legal advisory LaRose sent to all Ohio County Board of Elections directors and board members on June 3 affirming that the deadline for political parties to certify their presidential and vice-presidential candidates is now September 1 — well after Democrats’ convention in Chicago.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/why-is-the-dnc-accelerating-joe-biden-s-nomination/ar-BB1q67jq
Republican moves in Ohio
Oh boo hoo. They need time to print the ballots for all of that early voting. And don’t forget that T’s loss was due to “Democratic moves” in six other states.
The elite tech conference at Sun Valley, Idaho, was overshadowed by panic about Joe Biden’s cognitive decline and anger at Jeffrey Katzenberg for propping him up.
Super-producer and media mogul Katzenberg, who is also Biden’s campaign co-chair, was in “damage control” at the exclusive conference, best known for its dealmaking as media elites rub shoulders with tech titans.
Attendees at the event, hosted by investment bank Allen & Company from July 9 to 13, privately slammed the movie executive for being “duplicitous” about Biden’s mental state, sources told The Post.
“Katzenberg was not getting a lot of meetings” one attendee said. “The talk about him was as negative as it’s ever been.”
The situation was far worse, the source adds, than when he lost investors $1.75 billion on the short lived streaming platform Quibi, which both launched and then dissolved in 2020.
“[Biden’s] condition has been getting worse… he isn’t going to get better,” the attendee added. “He [Katzenberg] didn’t apologize at all… nothing.”
The anger attendees directed at Katzenberg underscores the fact attendees privately — and publicly in the case of donors like Netflix founder Reed Hastings and Endeavor super agent Ari Emanuel — concede they do not believe Biden can win against Donald Trump in November.
“No one differed on one thing: The man [Biden] is incapable of running the country today and he should step down,” another source told The Post. “It’s a foregone conclusion… Trump will sweep the presidency — it will be so lopsided it’s frightening.”
Even Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, previously a democratic from Arizona who switched her affiliation to independent in 2022, acknowledged at the conference Biden was “incoherent” in meetings she had with him nearly a year ago, sources told The Post.
The Post previously reported Katzenberg, the Oscar-winning film mogul behind “The Lion King” has drawn the ire of Hollywood executives and movie stars for failing to acknowledge Biden’s alleged health issues while raising around $30 million for his re-election at at recent Hollywood event.
Sources told The Post, those they feel conned into raising cash for ailing President Biden’s re-election without being told the true extent of his decline.
Even though most agreed Biden staying at the top of the ticket is inevitable, it didn’t stop conference goers from discussing who else they would like to see in The White House.
“Everyone was talking about who could replace Biden,” the attendee added.
Still another source told The Post they recognize it would be folly for anyone to try and oppose Trump, who survived an assassination attempt over the weekend, adding: “Who wants to run against a martyr?”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/tech-titans-at-sun-valley-ditch-deals-to-discuss-biden-s-cognitive-decline-predict-trump-victory/ar-BB1q6aHk
“…Joe Biden’s cognitive decline and anger…”
A friend’s mother got in the car to go grocery shopping at the nearby strip mall, and called home an hour later from the other side of the city…lost and confused. You’d think giving up the car would be a no brainer and a relief. WRONG!! It was the start of a full blown tantrum with screaming, name calling, threats to change the Will, etc. An assisted living community was the final solution.
It is sad and hard to deal with, especially for a loved family member.
Recently, we had to tell an elderly family member their car needed repairs and they’d get it back soon. They kept asking, kept being told it was in the shop, and eventually dropped it.
Not sure the best way to deal with such a hard issue.
Not sure the best way to deal with such a hard issue.
In my Dad’s case I removed a fuse for the fuel pump and put a note in the box where the fuses were that said Dementia patient do not fix. My Dad, in the old days, used to work on cars a lot but I didn’t think he would know anything about fuel pump fuse.
The big story in American politics prior to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump on July 13 was the struggle within the Democratic Party over efforts to convince President Biden to step aside as the presidential nominee after his bad debate performance on June 27. You can argue all day long about what would have happened had the shooting in Pennsylvania not occurred. Perhaps Biden would have soon put out the fire in his camp and restored order; perhaps the persistent unhappiness of elected officials and even the party rank-and-file would have built to a climax that forced the president to hang up his spurs and turn his candidacy over to Kamala Harris.
There are already reports from CNN that veteran Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg is sending up flares in private communications to Team Biden: “Lose everything,” is how one Democrat described a polling memo Greenberg sent to Biden’s inner circle in recent days. “Devastating,” was the one word answer of a second Democrat close to the White House who is familiar with the Greenberg memos.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/opinion/the-dnc-s-plan-to-nominate-biden-early-is-a-bad-idea/ar-BB1q6oNK
Lose everything,” is how one Democrat described a polling memo Greenberg sent to Biden’s inner circle in recent days.
I hope this happens but I am not sure it will. Check the minimal gains in Congress in 2022. Of course I could just be pessimistic because most people I know thing Biden is wonder and trump the devil and I am a “cult” member.
Many people, maybe most, were under mass formation psychosis in 2022. These are the things I can think of that have run their course and people are now sick of: culture insanity, hug an illegal, open drug use/bums, eco-fascism.
And ukrainistan.
The cost of living crisis.
Is “compete as a girl” there yet?
How about castrate your kids?
At once-and-future U.S. president Donald Trump’s rally in rural Pennsylvania on Saturday, the crowd of supporters behind him was carrying and wearing all kinds of signs. There were “Trump 2024″ and “Joe Biden You’re Fired” posters. There was a sea of “Make America Great Again” hats. One woman had a bright teal shirt that read “Mean Tweets 2024.”
And then there was the guy with this on his T-shirt: “Trump 2024. It Ain’t A Mistake Snowflake.”
He wasn’t talking to Canada, but he might as well have been.
Unless President Joe Biden finds his fountain of youth, Mr. Trump is going to win the November U.S. presidential election. His Republican Party – and it’s now his party – is also likely to control both houses of Congress.
A second Trump presidency spells big trouble for Canada. Here’s my list of potential problems to expect, in escalating order of seriousness.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-donald-trump-is-going-to-be-president-again-that-spells-six-big/
The article is behind a paywall.
Canada’s problem is L’il Fidel and his minions. They are the ones who have wrecked Canuckistan.
Just wanted to pull this comment forward from yesterday:
_____________
“Another Georgia delegate, an 85-year-old named Alton Russell, told me that inflation and American energy independence are among his biggest concerns.”
From rms:
The U.S. exports a variety of fossil fuels. Change your diaper, Alton.
______________
Energy independence is economic independence, not the fossil fuels themselves. From what I understand from Peter Zeihan, American crude oil is light and sweet, but the oil refineries in Texas and Louisiana are the best in the world at refining heavy and sour. So, the refineries import the heavy sour crap from other countries and refine it for a high profit, while we export the light sweet good stuff for other countries for them to refine. In short, we still import fossil fuels, but we export too, and in dollar terms the exports equal the imports.
If we really had to, we could probably retool the refineries to refine our own fossil fuels, and isolate ourselves from the rest of the world. But it wouldn’t be profitable, and there’s no real reason to disrupt the order of things…yet.
If we produced and exported more, the price per barrel would collapse and gas would be under $2 again.
Don’t forget the LNG (fossil fuel) we’re currently selling to Europe.
The energy independence happened under T, before the Uk war. I haven’t been keeping up, but we might be a net exporter now.
Interest Rates…. | Canada Real Estate
Angry Mortgage Podcast
8 hours ago
I didn’t fully understand the effects of the Bank of Canada Rate moving from 0.25% to 5% in just 18 months, the fastest, sharpest increase in history, I knew that Economists tell us the effects take time nearly 2 years for the full effect to dig into a country’s economy, I read it but didn’t absorb it: now I REALLY DO. Even as head down I am finally seeing the widespread economic carnage that is developing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tBqzCYkreyI
7 minutes.
The economic carnage was caused by the everything bubble.
“…from 0.25% to 5% in just 18 months…”
…aka yield curve inversion.
Sorry Ron, the damage isn’t from rates rising toward normal. It is from the reduction of rates to absurd lows years ago.
“Insurance companies are dropping Utah homeowners because of increased wildfire risk. Jon Watkins, a homeowner in the Edelweiss neighborhood of Suncrest in Draper, moved into the new community almost six years ago.
Ha, that area in Draper is built on a part of a mountain where the ground is not stable. It is a silly place to build housing.
With that said, it’s a great place because it is above the inversion (Utah’s air quality is a joke and will take a decade off your life), and the communities are lined with biking trails. It’s really, really nice. But not a place to build housing.
‘bought a townhouse minutes from Disney World two years ago and spent about $15,000 on upgrades. For the first six months or so, business was steady. Then bookings flatlined, and the Robertsons are now selling the property and forfeiting the short-term rental game. ‘When we first got it, things looked really good…But as time went on, it just got worse’ Part of that is a correction from the post-quarantine travel surge and a glut of new short-term rental properties hitting the market’
It’s best to panic early Joan. Cut yer losses.
And the covid stimulus bux dried up!
‘Our insurance company said in 60 days we’re dropping you. Good luck…Our stomach dropped because we’ve had the same home insurance since we bought the house…They’ve been really good to us, and we haven’t had any fires in the area. There haven’t been any big complaints. I didn’t understand why it was happening now…Both brokers said they didn’t know what to tell me. No one wants to insure that area…They had never heard of something like this where it was so difficult to find a new insurer. They were dealing with it for other people in my community too’
Insurance doesn’t work if they have to pay out Jon.
‘I’m not sure what happens if we cannot sell out…It makes no sense to put millions of dollars into our building’
Yeah, the buyers are greater fools Michelle, and all of you are fooked if this zoning thing doesn’t get approved. Yet another face plant failure of airbox commie real estate loan-ownership.
‘One woman who works and lives at the intersection said her neighbor heard the shots and took cover in the nearby alley until it stopped. ‘People just come down this street and just start shooting, just blazing,’ said Terry, ‘It’s ridiculous it don’t make sense. They don’t care about nobody else when you shoot like that, it’s not right, but the way the world is now they don’t have any compassion and don’t care’
A former KGB agent named Yuri Alexandrovich Bezmenov claimed in 1984 that Russia has a long-term goal of ideologically subverting the U.S. He described the process as “a great brainwashing” that has four basic stages. The first stage, he said, is called “demoralization,” which would take about 20 years to achieve.
This article was first published on Big Think in July 2018. It was updated in January 2023.
In 1954, early on in the Cold War, the Soviet Union created the Committee for State Security, more commonly known in the West as the KGB. The group came to oversee the Soviet Union’s internal security, secret police, and domestic and foreign intelligence operations.
Also unclear were the group’s long-term plans involving the U.S. One glimpse, however, comes from a former KGB agent named Yuri Alexandrovich Bezmenov, who defected to Canada in 1970. He claimed to know details of a Soviet plan to undermine the U.S., not on the battlefield but in the psyche of the American public.
In 1984, Bezmenov gave an interview to G. Edward Griffin from which much can be learned today. His most chilling point was that there’s a long-term plan put in play by Russia to defeat America through psychological warfare and “demoralization.” It’s a long game that takes decades to achieve but it may already be bearing fruit.
Bezmenov made the point that the work of the KGB mainly does not involve espionage, despite what our popular culture may tell us. Most of the work, 85% of it, was “a slow process which we call either ideological subversion, active measures, or psychological warfare.”
What does that mean? Bezmenov explained that the most striking thing about ideological subversion is that it happens in the open as a legitimate process. “You can see it with your own eyes,” he said. The American media would be able to see it, if it just focused on it.
Here’s how he further defined ideological subversion: “What it basically means is: to change the perception of reality of every American to such an extent that despite of the abundance of information no one is able to come to sensible conclusions in the interest of defending themselves, their families, their community, and their country.”
Bezmenov described this process as “a great brainwashing” that has four basic stages. The first stage is called “demoralization” which takes from 15 to 20 years to achieve. According to the former KGB agent, that is the minimum number of years it takes to re-educate one generation of students that is normally exposed to the ideology of its country — in other words, the time it takes to change what the people are thinking.
“They are programmed to think and react to certain stimuli in a certain pattern [alluding to Pavlov]. You can not change their mind even if you expose them to authentic information. Even if you prove that white is white and black is black, you still can not change the basic perception and the logic of behavior.”
In what is perhaps a most striking passage in the interview, here’s how Bezmenov described the state of a “demoralized” person:
“As I mentioned before, exposure to true information does not matter anymore,” said Bezmenov. “A person who was demoralized is unable to assess true information. The facts tell nothing to him. Even if I shower him with information, with authentic proof, with documents, with pictures; even if I take him by force to the Soviet Union and show him [a] concentration camp, he will refuse to believe it, until he [receives] a kick in his fan-bottom. When a military boot crashes his balls then he will understand. But not before that. That’s the [tragedy] of the situation of demoralization.”
https://bigthink.com/the-present/yuri-bezmenov/
IIRC, OneAgainstMany accused me of being a Russian asset over Bezmenov’s interview.
‘Landlords, often private-equity firms, used that money to purchase skyscrapers, shopping centers and other properties. The losses are particularly jarring for investors because credit-rating firms initially gave many of the bonds triple-A ratings—higher than even U.S. Treasury bonds. The financial models behind the ratings never forecast property prices falling below the value of the debt’
Let’s put this in the not different this time category.
‘Some of them are investors who now just want to walk away from their units because they can’t afford it’
Just like that Carl, yer giving it away.
‘There’s just limited willingness to lose money…It seems like nobody has really adjusted their expectations to a market in which they aren’t going to make a profit’
It’s called chasing the market down Dan.
‘Another resident, who doesn’t want to be named, said he and his wife moved in with their two children three years ago. He said: ‘Cars are breaking, there’s a huge dip on one of the roads that is dangerous, and using pushchairs is a big issue for a lot of people – one of the kids fell off their bike not long ago. We have made numerous complaints but hear nothing back’
It’s still way cheaper than renting resident.
‘During that investigation, we came across a real estate agent who offered warehouses and homes to the drug world.’ A follow-up investigation revealed that this realtor was the kingpin in a criminal organization specializing in committing mortgage fraud, the detective said. The criminal network included the real estate agent, mortgage advisors, and administration officers. They arranged false employer statements, fake salary slips, and enhanced companies’ annual accounts in order to deceive banks. ‘We even saw fictitious monthly wage payments made to the applicants’ bank accounts,’ the detective said. ‘Anything to give the mortgage lender the illusion that the customer had a well-paid job’
When this kind of loan fraud surfaced in Phoenix back in 2006, one local UHS said no big deal. Fraud was just taking prices where they are going anyway.
‘counts herself as one of the lucky ones: she can avoid rent by staying at home with her parents. The 29-year-old signed a contract with BGC in 2020, with a construction deadline of June 2023…‘I’m essentially paying for my mortgage now, but I don’t have the freedom of … a homeowner’
So far you own nothing but a loan Brianna.
‘Another BGC client, who would only speak to WAtoday on condition of anonymity, has been waiting for his northern suburbs build for around three years. Already unable to pay for both the monthly loan repayments and rent, he moved out of his rental and has had to stay with various friends. In trying to cope with his expenses he has racked up a credit card debt of more than $30,000. ‘From someone who had a good credit score, my credit rating is now ruined’
Sleeping on couches is definitely cheaper than renting anon.
‘Another BGC client building in Mandurah, also speaking anonymously, described the stress of being forced to work up to 100 hours a week after his bank said they could not extend his loan’s interest-only deadline. The man and his wife, who have two daughters at home, are now paying up to $6500 a month in both rent and mortgage payments. ‘It’s been a living nightmare…We just have to keep our heads down and keep working’
Yer doing the right thing client. Keep making those payments. You’ll see, in the end YOU will be the winnah!
The European Commission was wrong to conceal details of its multi-billion euro deals for Covid vaccines, an EU court has ruled in a blow to Ursula von der Leyen.
Mrs von der Leyen faces a European Parliament vote on Thursday to secure her appointment for a second term as president of the EU executive but the court decision risks reawakening concerns over how she secured jabs for the bloc.
She was already under scrutiny for allegedly keeping secret and deleting text messages with the boss of Pfizer over vaccine purchases in a controversy dubbed “Deletegate”.
Wednesday’s court ruling is separate to that case but the timing is embarrassing for Mrs von der Leyen, who will miss Thursday’s European Political Community summit in the UK to be at the Strasbourg vote, and is currently working to ensure she has the expected support for another five years at the head of the commission.
Green MEPs had demanded the commission publish Covid vaccine purchase agreements worth just under £2.3 billion that it negotiated in 2020-2021.
Brussels did publish the deals but redacted parts of the agreements, including the names of EU officials responsible for negotiating them. It argued that releasing the blacked-out details would jeopardise the commercial relationships with the pharmaceutical companies, notably where it came to liability and indemnification in the event of vaccine defects.
The commission also argued that it needed to keep private the identities and words used by members of its team who negotiated the deals.
A legal battle ensued, leading to Wednesday’s ruling.
The EU’s General Court said the commission failed to show how divulging indemnification details would harm the commercial interests of the pharmaceutical groups supplying the vaccines,
It also failed a “public interest” test by keeping secret the names of the EU officials involved, the court said.
The court upheld “in part” the lawsuits lodged by those seeking access to those details “and annuls the Commission’s decisions in so far as they contain irregularities”.
“The Commission did not demonstrate that wider access to those clauses would actually undermine the commercial interests of those undertakings,” the court said.
It also found that those behind the lawsuit had demonstrated the public interest of having access to the personal details of the commission’s vaccine-negotiating team.
“It was only by having the names, surnames and details of the professional or institutional role of the members of the team in question that they could have ascertained whether or not the members of that team had a conflict of interests,” the court added.
In 2022, the commission said it could not and did not have to find the text messages Mrs von der Leyen exchanged with Albert Bourla, Pfizer’s chief executive, during the pandemic.
The existence of the messages was revealed in a New York Times investigation.
The commission refused a freedom of information request for the messages, which led to a complaint to the European Ombudsman.
In a damning report, the watchdog said that amounted to maladministration.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/court-ruling-over-covid-contracts-deals-embarrassing-blow-to-ursula-von-der-leyen/ar-BB1q91MS
The Condo Market Is All Screwed Up (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)
Team Sessa Real Estate
48 minutes ago TORONTO
In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, York Region & Peel Region for week ending July 10, 2024. We also discuss the current state of the condo market and why we’re in the mess we’re in.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNLlm18jc5o
14:27. Oh dear…
Buying investment properties that are Cash Flow negative and betting on asset appreciation must be a hard sell for these private equity firms to pass along to their investors.
Buyers GAIN The Upper Hand In Canadian Real Estate
Karrasch Real Properties
4 hours ago SURREY
The market has turned in favour of the buyer, and buyers now have the upper hand. Sellers as a whole have not caught up to this just yet, resulting in a high volume of listings and very low number of sales.
In this month’s Surrey Report, Surrey Real Estate Specialist, Steve Karrasch of Macdonald Realty shares his take on the Surrey real estate market this summer and what sellers must internalise and come to terms with right now if they are serious about selling.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GP744ZAyIzI
17:42.
On the Campaign trail
BIDEN just tested positive for Covid.
Is that the third or fourth time he has gotten it?
And if the vaccine worked so well, he should have a mild case and it shouldn’t affect him at all. So get back on the stage ya geezer.
COVID is still a thing that’s test for?!
COVID is still a thing that’s test for?!
I guess it is when you are making a fool of yourself at every speech and they need an excuse to send you back to your basement.
Back to the basement for Joetato. What will they do when he has “recovered” from Covid i a week or so? If they let him out he’ll just resume mumbling word salads.