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Their Dreams Have Been Shattered, Leaving Them With A Substantial Financial Loss And A Profound Sense Of Betrayal

A report from WDSU in Louisiana. “The insurance crisis has now reached a catastrophic level as it cripples a vulnerable population of homeowners in the greater New Orleans area. According to Habitat for Humanity’s CEO Marguerite Oestreicher, about 140 mostly ‘older’ habitat for humanity homeowners are on the brink of foreclosure. Another 75 to 100 are hanging by a thread. ‘I mean, there are people who call in tears. There are older people who are like, I don’t know what to do. I can’t go live on the street. I can’t lose my house,’ Oestreicher said. She says mortgages have doubled since the insurance crisis. Most of those facing foreclosures are older and retired with nowhere to go. Habitat for Humanity serves as both a homebuilder and lender for more than 750 homes in the New Orleans area. They have been working with the homeowners who are behind on their mortgages, waiting for them to catch up. But now, they’re pushed against the wall. Oestreicher is asking the city for $2 million.”

From WFLX. “If your homeowners insurance has gone up a lot in recent years, you are definitely not alone. ‘Yes, almost double in the last two years,’ said Gabriella Hernandez, who owns a home in the Vedado neighborhood of West Palm Beach. According to Florida Tax Watch, homeowners policies in the state have jumped on average 42.5% since 2019. For people like Gabriella, the options are not many. ‘If we sold the house anyway, we don’t have enough money to do something different,’ she said.”

CBS Bay Area in California. “A real estate holding company that allowed a group of Sonoma properties to lapse into foreclosure has left investors and the city itself with an uncertain future. On August 8th, the first dozen properties are scheduled to be auctioned off to the highest bidder. The property purchases began very quietly, with dozens of homes being bought, often in off-market sales. They were followed by familiar businesses in the heart of downtown. ‘Then it became, quite quickly, a concern about one person buying up lots and lots of property, and controlling the rents and the merchants, and a lot of private property,’ said Sonoma resident Josette Brose-Eichar.”

“That ‘someone’ was Ken Mattson, the head of a real estate investment company called LeFever-Mattson. Eventually, a citizens group called ‘Wake UP Sonoma’ formed to investigate what was going on. And president Lisa Storment said they discovered the purchases followed an unusual pattern. ‘Buy really high, way over asking price — like ridiculously over asking price — and then sell back to one of their own LLC companies at a really depressed rate,’ said Storment. ‘It would sit there for long, extended periods of time with no attempt to try to improve the property.'”

“In all, more than 120 properties were bought around town. No one really understands the strategy behind it. Recently, the wheels of the enterprise have fallen off. Mattson’s partner, Tim LeFever, has accused him of stealing from the company. The two former friends are suing each other. Many of the properties have fallen into foreclosure, allegedly because Mattson stopped making payments on the loans. And the residents fear the city will also take a hit for Mattson’s buying spree. ‘When they were bought, they were bought at such a high level over asking price, over value, that it increases the property values in our area,’ said Storment. ‘And then, when they’re going to get sold, there’s going to be a dive in our economy.'”

The New York Post. “Prominent Big Apple developer Michael Shvo was slapped with a lawsuit by a disgruntled couple who plunked down $6.1 million for a pad at the Mandarin Oriental Fifth Avenue, claiming the luxury building is riddled with problems. John Goodman and his wife, Diane Johnson, alleged that the building developed by Shvo at 685 Fifth Ave. is ‘plagued by construction defects, unfinished amenities, a pervasive sense of neglect, and compromised services.’ The couple, which goes by the Goodmans, said their 18th-floor unit ‘is now effectively worthless. Their dreams have been shattered, leaving them with a substantial financial loss and a profound sense of betrayal,’ according to the lawsuit. The Goodmans also claimed that the building is a ‘virtual ghost town,’ and alleged that only 16 out of 64 units have sold after three years.”

From Bisnow. “Commercial property owners are losing their properties to their lenders at the highest rate since 2015. Last month, ratings agency Moody’s placed six regional banks under review, with potential for a ratings downgrade, due to office and other commercial real estate exposure. Since the onset of the pandemic, the financing motto has been ‘extend and pretend,’ but the caution exhibited by banks signal that era may be over. ‘Lenders and borrowers will be forced to ‘face the music’: In the near term, we expect further declines in appraised valuations and price indices, making loan extensions even more difficult to rationalize,’ according to a report by Pimco.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Distress is working its way through the financial system after more lenders conclude that obsolete office buildings won’t recover their former value, even when interest rates decline. That is leading to sales of foreclosed properties and distressed mortgages. It is also bringing an increase in short sales, where lenders and borrowers work together to unload troubled property for whatever they can get. Numerous office buildings have sold at steeply discounted prices in the struggling office market in Washington, D.C. That has made it hard for lenders with outstanding loans to keep distressed loans on their books for their original values. In the district, State Farm Life Insurance recently conducted a foreclosure sale of an office building a few blocks from the White House for $17.6 million, more than 70% below what the owner had paid in 2010.”

“These days owners increasingly are giving up, recognizing that demand levels for their buildings won’t return. Many are simply working with their lenders on short sales, which typically aren’t counted as foreclosures. Indeed, the volume of commercial-property sales that involved lender participation soared 83% in the first and second quarter of 2024 from the two previous quarters, according to Ten-X, one of the biggest auctioneers of commercial property online. ‘This cycle, a lot of investors believe office values are challenged,’ said Nicholas Seidenberg, managing director at the real-estate investment banking firm Eastdil Secured. ‘They’re saying: ‘Hey, I’m going to just walk away and not fight.’”

From Mises.org. “From roughly 2020 to 2022, ‘syndicators’ took over the apartment investment market. During that time, this group of dimwitted rent seekers used bridge loans to finance their apartment acquisitions. At 85% leverage, the bridge loans left only a sliver of equity to raise, for which these syndicators used third parties or online platforms built for anonymous fundraising from average Americans with cash to burn and no place to earn a yield in the zero interest rate environment of the time.”

“To the extent there was a business case underlying these acquisitions, it involved two sets of assumptions. First, that heavy renovations on apartments, financed by additional bridge loan money, would lead to immediate and massive increases in rent. Second, that benchmark interest rates would stay at or near zero for the foreseeable future.”

“These assumptions were foolhardy for a variety of reasons, but the point is moot. Syndicators’ primary motivations involved pocketing acquisition fees — collected up front and not tied in any way to future performance — before the Fed turned off the money tap and investors realized they had been duped. To that end, they’ve been wildly successful. Many of their investors, on the other hand, lost everything. One of the most voracious syndicators during the apartment bubble was Tides Equities, based in California. Headed by Sean Kia and Ryan Andrade, possessing a combined skill set that might equal that of a middling undergrad analyst, Tides ultimately acquired over 30,000 apartment units — a staggering figure for a team with no apparent investment management acumen.”

“These two amassed over $8 billion in assets under management. Unfortunately, they were unable to keep the momentum going. After a solid two years stacking up mediocre properties at obscenely high prices, the Fed increased benchmark interest rates. One need not be familiar with every syndicator to understand their basic nature: largely unskilled, inexperienced, and emotionally undisciplined but deeply motivated by rent-seeking — the acquisition of wealth not by creating value but by deftly prying it from others.”

“Other syndicators whose fortunes have fallen include Rise 48, ZMR, and Nitya Capital. In each case, the story is the same. Talentless but ambitious founders rushed to fund property acquisitions during the bubble that went pear-shaped when rates increased. Properties owned by these syndicators are now largely distressed, in many cases sporting debt service coverage ratios under 0.5, meaning the properties generate less than half of the cash required to make loan payments.”

The Financial Post. “Canadian housing markets have taken some knocks over the past few years as interest rates and inflation soared, but few have had it as rough as Toronto’s condo market. The problem is prices are too high for investors, which make up 70 per cent or more of presale buyers, and developers can’t lower prices because of high construction costs. The high cost of building condos these days is reflected in prices. New condo prices are down only 5 per cent from their high, while resale condo prices have fallen by 12 per cent. Developers are offering incentives and rent is up 30 per cent from pandemic lows but ‘it’s not enough,’ said the report. ‘Quite simply, new condo investment doesn’t work at the current market average price of close to $1,400 psf (per square foot),’ it said.”

“So what is the math? The reality is that many condo investors are losing money. Of owners with a mortgage, 52 per cent were cash flow negative in 2022, meaning rents were not covering ownership costs which include mortgage, condo fees and property taxes . By 2023 that share had grown to 77 per cent and by the first quarter of this year, it reached 82 per cent. The bigger the condo, the larger the negative cash flow, said the study.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “238 Harvie Ave., Toronto. Asking price: $1.9-million (May, 2024). Previous asking price: $1,949,000 (April, 2024). Selling price: $1.8-million (May, 2024). Agent Ira Jelinek chauffeured his clients to dozens of properties across Toronto matching their changing needs over the past few years. The first one they were ready to buy was this three-bedroom house abutting Prospect Cemetery, just north of St. Clair Avenue. Their offer was declined, but after it was pulled off the market, they reapproached the seller with a sweeter price, hitting the top of their $1.8-million budget. It was accepted. ‘We offered a bit higher, but not as high as what the seller wanted,’ said Mr. Jelinek. ‘Right now, it’s definitely a buyer’s market.'”

The Daily Telegraph in Australia. “It’s not just the temperature that’s colder this year – a deep chill has swept much of NSW’s popular winter holiday market, with homes in popular ski locations listed for discounts. PropTrack figures showed property prices across the Snowy Mountains region were about 11 per cent below figures seen last year, with competition for housing falling rapidly amid higher rates. Many snow homes have sold with much larger discounts than the 11 per cent average price drop in the region, with up to $500,000 shaved off the original list prices in some instances. SQM Research director Louis Christopher said holiday home sales reflected a trend among homeowners to do everything they could do preserve the family home. ‘If repayments start to become more unaffordable, the last thing most people want to do is sell the family home. So the holiday home, the car, the private school for the kids all go first,’ he said.”

From 7 News. “Noeleen and Jack Miller were excited to be living the Australian dream in a new beachside home, but their experience with one of South Australia’s oldest and most well-known builders has left them in a ‘nightmare.’ The couple, originally from South Africa, is among several customers of Rossdale Homes who have come forward with complaints about workmanship, warranties not being followed through and a lack of communication. Construction on Noeleen and Jack Miller’s $735,100 home in North Haven began in June 2022. At the frames stage, when they engaged an experienced building inspector, they were told control joints were missing in two different areas of the home.”

“The inspector told 7NEWS.com.au that if an engineer had not approved fewer control joints, the house was at risk of cracking, which could lead to issues with waterproofing and – in the worst-case scenario, mould could compromise its structural integrity. Despite the couple’s numerous attempts to get documentation from Rossdale that an engineer had signed off on the joints not being required, they still have not received the paperwork. The couple said they felt pressured to make a progress payment to continue construction because they needed to move out of their rental.”

“Jack said he now feels ‘sick’ and starts to shake whenever he hears or sees promotions for Rossdale. ‘You pay the money hoping they’ll come back (to fix defects) but they don’t,’ Jack said. Noeleen said the family ‘haven’t got our money’s worth’ after being promised a custom-built home. ‘I would lie awake at night so frustrated. Sometimes I’d just lie there and cry,’ Noeleen said. After the handover, they had loose threads in carpets, cracks in a wall and the staircase, loud whistling throughout the house on a windy day, bricks that needed cleaning, and tiles that were unevenly laid. ‘They rule unto themselves,’ Noeleen said. ‘You actually have no recourse. They put you in a position when you can do nothing, just wait for them to do what they want, when they want.'”

South China Morning Post. “A fresh wave of selling in Chinese stocks has sent shivers down the backs of the 220-million-strong army of retail investors in the world’s second biggest-market, as memories are revived of the implosion a decade ago, which shaved a third of the aggregate valuations. A 3.7 per cent decline in the CSI 300 Index last week has taken to 7.6 per cent its loss from this year’s high in May, as pessimism grew after a high-stakes Communist Party’s third plenum offered little by way of policy support. The resumption of the downturn in stocks is a setback for those hoping for a sustained turnaround after a flurry of state interventions over the past year.”

“With pessimism swirling, any rebound may be short-lived as disappointed investors are waiting in the wings to offload their battered portfolios. Yan Xiaosen, who has seen his 2018 investment of 500,000 yuan in stocks and mutual funds shrink by 40 per cent, said he would sell if the rebound in the Shanghai Composite Index, a gauge popular among individual investors, pushes it above the 3,000-point mark. ‘I have lost faith in the nation’s economy and the listed companies,’ said the 47-year-old sales manager with a kitchen utensil maker in Shanghai. ‘It’s unreasonable for us to recover the losses in the next one or two years because the market is witnessing a crisis of confidence.'”

“Sissi Liu, a Shanghai-based housewife, has turned her back on trading stocks since she dumped all her holdings in 2018. Now, she would rather put her money in time deposits, even if it means an annual yield of 1.35 per cent on a one-year term. ‘My decision to exit the stock market is right,’ she said. ‘Why bother investing in a market that is not so different from a casino?'”

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This Post Has 91 Comments

  2. “The insurance crisis has now reached a catastrophic level as it cripples a vulnerable population of homeowners in the greater New Orleans area.

    Gosh, I hope they don’t get vulnered.

  4. According to Florida Tax Watch, homeowners policies in the state have jumped on average 42.5% since 2019.

    Yet our official inflation rate is “only” 3.4 percent. Former Iraqi Information Minister Baghdad Bob would blush with shame and mortification if asked to put across such whoppers.

    1. Yet our official inflation rate is “only” 3.4 percent.

      Try pricing a gallon of paint. Like so many other things, the price just keeps going up.

      1. Imagine if government officials were sent to prison for putting out falsified economic data. The CPI and Fed are massively defrauding Olds out of honest Social Security COLA benefits.

        1. Yes indeed. Because the Olds earned those COLA benefits the old fashioned way– they voted for them!

        2. The CPI and Fed are massively defrauding Olds out of honest Social Security COLA benefits.

          No one is entitled to COLA.

  5. ‘When they were bought, they were bought at such a high level over asking price, over value, that it increases the property values in our area,’ said Storment.

    Those “increased property values” were a chimera based on fraud and speculation enabled by the gusher of Yellen Bux funny money.

  6. “Construction on Noeleen and Jack Miller’s $735,100 home in North Haven began in June 2022. At the frames stage, when they engaged an experienced building inspector, they were told control joints were missing in two different areas of the home.”

    “The inspector told 7NEWS.com.au that if an engineer had not approved fewer control joints, the house was at risk of cracking, which could lead to issues with waterproofing and – in the worst-case scenario, mould could compromise its structural integrity. Despite the couple’s numerous attempts to get documentation from Rossdale that an engineer had signed off on the joints not being required, they still have not received the paperwork. The couple said they felt pressured to make a progress payment to continue construction because they needed to move out of their rental.”

    I don’t get it. You saw the serious problems years prior during construction, builder did nothing, and still went through with sale? That’s supposed to be what’s known as a big red flag. The bright side, you got a “beachside home” for $700,000. Sounds like a steal.

    1. The couple said they felt pressured to make a progress payment to continue construction because they needed to move out of their rental.”

      The stupid, it burns. So many unheeded red flags, but they “needed to move out of their rental.”

      1. Pain is usually an excellent teacher. But in so many real estate sob stories, it appears that the pain hurts but does not appear to be teaching any lessons. yet.

  7. “Distress is working its way through the financial system after more lenders conclude that obsolete office buildings won’t recover their former value”

    All because of an alleged “virus” with an infection fatality rate of 0.0000001%.

    “We’re all in this together” because when it’s time for the bailouts, you, the taxpayer, will be paying for ALL of it.

  9. – Banana Republic – Signposts along the way…

    – The U.S. 2020 Election was stolen. Brandon is not the legitimately elected President. And don’t think they won’t try the same thing in 2024.

    https://legalinsurrection.com/2024/07/fraud-venezuela-breaks-out-in-protests-accusing-maduro-of-stealing-the-election/

    ‘Fraud!’: Venezuela Breaks Out in Protests, Accusing Maduro of Stealing the Election

    “He has to go. One way or another.”
    Posted by Mary Chastain Monday, July 29, 2024 at 07:00pm

    “Venezuela’s National Electoral Council announced that Venezuelan Dictator President Nicolás Maduro won the presidential election.”

    “Venezuelans are ticked off. They’ve stormed the streets around the country, accusing Maduro of fraud and stealing the election:”

    – Becoming Ameri-zuela?

    – Prove me wrong.

    1. You don’t get to vote your way out of Communism. ‘Muricans, take note. And never give up your guns. This is exactly why we have a 2nd Amendment: for dealing with tyranny in the only language it understands.

      2. “You don’t get to vote your way out of Communism. ‘Muricans, take note. And never give up your guns. This is exactly why we have a 2nd Amendment: for dealing with tyranny in the only language it understands.”

        \\

        – Correct.

        \\

        https://www.shootingnewsweekly.com/2024/07/30/the-real-lesson-of-venezuela-never-ever-give-up-your-guns/

        The Real Lesson of Venezuela: Never EVER Give Up Your Guns
        Lee Williams | July 30, 2024 7:00 am | 8 Comments
        Categories: Op-Ed, Politics

        Every dictator knows that the first thing they must do to maintain their grip on power is ban civilian firearm ownership and then confiscate all the guns.

        No one knows this better than Venezuelan dictator and mass-murderer Nicolás Maduro. The corporate media refers to Maduro as a “strongman,” but there’s nothing strong about machinegunning disarmed citizens or imprisoning political opponents without a shred of due process.

        In 2012, Maduro issued an executive order that banned his subjects from owning firearms or ammunition and shuttered every private gun shop.

        Of course, the Venezuelan Army, police and special paramilitary units were exempt from Maduro’s decree and continued to obtain guns and ammo from government sources.

        There was a short grace period during which Venezuelans were allowed to turn in their guns, but thousands of firearms had to be confiscated by force. Today, Venezuelans face up to 20 years in a state prison for illegal firearm possession.

        Maduro justified his national gun grab by claiming it would reduce crime.

        Sound familiar?

  10. “In all, more than 120 properties were bought around town. No one really understands the strategy behind it.”

    Buy high, sell low…what could go wrong?

    1. The only reason home prices are rising is because the Fed’s debasement of the currency means Americans’ purchasing power is being destroyed due to the inexorable expansion of the money supply.

    2. Is that what you are seeing in your hood? Because it ain’t in mine. So many that have bought in the last are listing right now at what they bought it for plus enough to cover the realtor commish……and they ain’t selling. Anyone who bought in the last three years and needs to sell would’ve been so better off renting.

  13. “Habitat for Humanity’ ,houses are a scam here in rural upstate SC, most go to single druggie moms, who all trash and walk ,within a year or so, even if the payment is $500. a month, they ain’t paying it
    A regular 30 years old,nice but not new house sells for $300-350 K with a 2 acre lot ….That’s only half the story ..You get down payment money from family ,and end up with a 300K loan , that runs $2600 per month for 30 years , .Almost 1 Million $
    don’t see where this can end well, unless prices continue climbing forever…they won’t…..

    1. But now, they’re pushed against the wall. Oestreicher is asking the city for $2 million.”
      Why is the “answer” to everything always “other people’s money?”

      1. Oestreicher is asking the city for $2 million.

        I’m sure the “city” doesn’t have two spare Nickels to rub together.

    2. “all trash and walk ,within a year or so”

      And then they’ll go play victim and get another 10-month stint somewhere else. Luxury couch surfing.

  14. Paul Krugman muh best economy ever.

    HuffPaint — We’re A Middle-Class Family. We Can’t Afford To Go On Vacation — And We’re Not The Only Ones (7/30/2024):

    “Over the past several years our living expenses, like those of other middle-class families in the United States, have skyrocketed. Many people have seen costs rise for groceries, heating oil, electricity, car insurance, property taxes and gas, without seeing cost-of-living increases reflected in their salaries.

    It has become a monthly tightrope walk to keep our home and feed our children. Vacations, once a sure thing for families like mine, are a fantasy for us ― something our kids wish for as they watch friends from wealthier families share posts online about international excursions to lands they can only dream of.”

    https://www.huffpost.com/entry/middle-class-family-vacation-debt_n_667b44f5e4b017bda37ad917

    Keep printing another $1 trillion every 100 days, that will help, right?

    1. as they watch friends from wealthier families share posts online about international excursions to lands

      Even the “wealthy” are cutting back. Pricey hot spots, like say Disneyworld, are experiencing sagging attendance. And for Disney that is problematic, as the theme parks and resorts have been carrying the company for years,

        1. “Using credit cards to pay for your vacation…”

          Then HELOC the house to pay off the revolving debt!

  15. A reader sent these in:

    Old CW: #Bitcoin is the purest form of money, freedom & independence from fiat.

    New CW: Bitcoiners cheering proposals for governments to become owners & buyers of #Bitcoin to pump their bags.

    Really? Come on guys.

    Maybe it was never about the former but about the latter.

    https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1817609975348236339

    RFK JR. WANTS US TO HAVE 4M BITCOIN RESERVE

    Independent United States presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said at the Bitcoin Conference that, if he is elected president, he will sign an executive order instructing the Treasury to buy 550 Bitcoin per day until the US has at least 4,000,000 Bitcoin in reserve “and a position of dominance that no other country will be able to usurp.” He said his aim is for the US to hold around 19% of the world’s Bitcoin, which is the same as its current gold reserves.

    https://x.com/DeItaone/status/1817165700311449994

    Props to the crack @federalreserve scheduling team to place a Fed meeting right at month end and nestled right between $META, $MSFT, $AAPL & $AMZN earnings.

    https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1817661247564964302

    It’s comedy that people are doing victory laps on this (look at the quote retweets) as policy likely remains in ‘restrictive’ territory for another 3-6 months.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1817996543821320478

    Commercial property foreclosures

    “Where in cycle?”

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1818015178950328440

    We’ve spent the last 20 years creating financial Frankenstein after Frankenstein through programs, bailouts, and perpetually low rates – it’s time to embrace higher rates & more difficult times as a short term necessity for long term benefit.

    I have low confidence in the Fed.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1817979492734009444

    I’m not in Niagara but multifamily is.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1817772411473084492

    The Fed should be cutting rates THIS WEEK

    They were late to hike and now they’re arguably late to cut

    Time and again they are late and reactive instead of proactive

    Policy needs to skate to where the puck is headed

    https://x.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1817968496522993702

    Toured a home in Austin this weekend.

    Buyers paid $1.2m during peak insanity. Tried to immediately flip the home for $1.4m.

    It’s now been on the market for 18 months and they’ve dropped it below $900k.

    You love to see it

    https://x.com/anothercohen/status/1818022602155196705

    I just got back from Austin and was shocked at how many homes are for sale. 2-3 on every street.

    https://x.com/Brice/status/1818035044277272742

    My realtor says our central Texas county has the most inventory he’s ever seen. As in Austin adjacent

    https://x.com/dukecannonbaby/status/1818022980318020076

    I am pleased to be a part of the diverse group of former policy makers, who know from experience that extending government underwritten insurance to mortgage servicing special interests, and adding to the morale hazard problem in the U.S., is a bad idea.

    https://x.com/tom_hoenig/status/1817625817423228978

    Multiple towns in Rural America will simply have to combine to stay alive longer.

    This will only slow what’s inevitable.

    https://x.com/GayBearRes/status/1817983668322975920

    Two Thirds Off In San Francisco

    400 Montgomery St. expected to trade hands for a figure in the mid $20 million range.

    Purchased for $77.5 million in August 2019.

    https://x.com/FCNightingale/status/1817974009453326820

    US debt just hit $35T with $15T in debt added in just the past 8 years & no sign of slowing.
    This election then offers a choice between a party that has added $7.5T in debt in 4 years & a party that has also added $7.5T in debt in 4 years. Take your pick but don’t expect change.

    https://x.com/NorthmanTrader/status/1817900696047345795

    Nothing says “housing shortage” quite like “we can’t find enough renters”

    New housing supply is staying empty at a pace not seen since the GFC

    https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1817786377280594292

    (1) Ontario housing starts tumble, developers warn situation will ‘get worse before it gets better’

    https://x.com/REWoman/status/1817897620485886099

    A Mortgage Broker Who Ripped Off Her Investor Clients For Millions

    Is she going to get away with it?

    Great reporting from Shane who has been on this story since Day One

    With utter recklessness & in the end just pure fraud Claire Drage made millions in fees & screwed Investors

    https://x.com/ronmortgageguy/status/1817555271121613307

    1. Old CW: #Bitcoin is the purest form of money, freedom & independence from fiat.

      New CW: Bitcoiners cheering proposals for governments to become owners & buyers of #Bitcoin to pump their bags.

      Really? Come on guys.

      Maybe it was never about the former but about the latter.

      \\

      – Bitcoin was supposed to be the anti-Fed, anti-currency manipulation, anti-Fed alternative currency. Now it’s getting .gov support? What?

      – Bitcoin has no intrinsic value outside of cyberspace, but Gold has been money for around 5,000 years. Decisions, decisions…

      “All the money and all the banks in Christendom cannot control credit…Gold is money and nothing else.” – JP Morgan’s 1912 Congressional testimony on “the justification of Wall Street”

      – At the same time, .gov prints (lots of) $, so some alternative is needed to preserve purchasing power (vs. massive inflation).

      – At this point, with about $175T of total liabilities by the U.S. .gov (read taxpayers), a sovereign default, including a 50%+ currency debasement are, based on history, likely outcomes. Plan accordingly, but choose wisely!

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qIitjokEJwg
      Indiana Jones – He Chose Poorly
      53,681 views Aug 3, 2017

      “Fiat money eventually always goes back to its intrinsic value – zero” – Voltaire

      1. Agree on Bitcoin. 550 bitcoin? We should be buying 550 400-oz bars of GOLD every month.

        “Bitcoiners cheering proposals for governments to become owners & buyers of #Bitcoin to pump their bags.”

        I said the same the other day. There are two types of people who own Bitcoin: True Bros who truly believe that Bitcoin will be adopted as a full replacement world currency, and Traders who just want to buy low and sell high to those who truly believe that Bitcoin will be adopted as a full replacement world currency. Every day, many True Bros and converting the Traders just to get out.

        1. It’s going to be comedy gold when the crypto baggies belatedly realize the supply of Greater Fools has suddenly dried up, and the stampede for the exits begins.

    2. The Fed should be cutting rates THIS WEEK

      Given the horrid inflation levels that we are seeing with our lying eyes, rates should be going up.

    3. New CW: Bitcoiners cheering proposals for governments to become owners & buyers of #Bitcoin to pump their bags.

      The gub’mint piling into digital tulip bulbs means our national descent into IDIOCRACY is officially complete.

    5. “US debt just hit $35T with $15T in debt added in just the past 8 years & no sign of slowing”

      Keep paying those federal income taxes, cattle tax slaves.

  16. Air New Zealand abandoned on Tuesday a 2030 emissions reduction target, citing delivery delays of fuel-efficient aircraft and high green fuel prices, in a move signalling the difficulty aviation is having meeting de-carbonisation goals. This is the first major airline to row back on climate aspirations but the carrier said it was committed to an industry-wide target of net zero emissions by 2050 and was working on a new near-term goal. Aviation is deemed responsible for about 2% of the world’s emissions but is considered one of the hardest sectors to decarbonise as fuel for flights cannot be easily replaced with other kinds of power.

    https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/air-nz-dumps-2030-carbon-214721191.html

    1. in a move signalling the difficulty aviation is having meeting de-carbonisation goals

      That phrase by itself illustrates the madness. Any serious airliner, one that can fly 500+ mph and can cross oceans has to burn fossil fuels. End of story. You will never fly any non trivial distance on an electric airplane.

      1. Ditto for autos.

        From American Physical Society

        Stored energy in fuel is considerable: gasoline is the champion at 47.5 MJ/kg and 34.6 MJ/liter; the gasoline in a fully fueled car has the same energy content as a thousand sticks of dynamite. A lithium-ion battery pack has about 0.3 MJ/kg and about 0.4 MJ/liter (Chevy VOLT).

        MJ = MegaJoule
        1 MJ = 277.7 WattHours

        34.6 / .4 = 91.5

        Thus, in rough speak, an auto, aircraft or what have you will (with current technology) require approx. 91.5 times more battery to perform an equivalent unit of work.

        At the moment, not a compelling ratio.

        1. Obviously, we need to burn the gasoline to raise veggies, then squeeze the goodness out of them to make Green Fuel. It takes a lot more gasoline but you can get accounting credits for the carbon.

      2. When I was a kid in the late 1970s, I remember watching news stories about engineering contests* to build fully solar cars and planes. The solar cars were ridiculous-looking; I think they were self-sustaining, but they were wide and flat and could carry only a driver. The solar planes were basically flat gliders that looked like they were built by Wilbur and Orville. I’m not sure whether the planes were sustaining.

        ———–
        *Official name was American Solar Challenge and it looks like they still have them

    2. This is the first major airline to row back on climate aspirations but the carrier said it was committed to an industry-wide target of net zero emissions by 2050
      I suspect 20 years from now they will committed to net zero emissions by 2075.

  17. State Sen. Nick Collins is joining the chorus of voices calling for a new approach to combat Boston’s revived open-air drug market at Mass and Cass, saying that the mayor’s decision to put housing before treatment is what doomed her plan.

    Collins said that while the Wu administration was able to connect many of the homeless and drug-addicted individuals frequenting the troubled area last summer with low-threshold housing, those people have not adopted a new, healthy lifestyle, and are rather returning to Mass and Cass by day to openly buy and use drugs.

    “I think the city has admitted that the plan is not working,” Collins, a South Boston Democrat who represents neighborhoods impacted by Mass and Cass, told the Herald. “They took down the tents and that was progress. But the plan that is harm reduction and low-threshold housing is a disaster.”

    Collins said the same problem occurred in prior years, when the city sought to cut down on violence, drug use and crowding at Melnea Cass Boulevard and Massachusetts Avenue by placing some of the inhabitants in cottages at Lemuel Shattuck Hospital, a transitional housing program that began in 2022 and was slated to end this summer.

    He said the people were sleeping at the cottages and returning to Mass and Cass during the day, much like the current situation, “because they knew they weren’t getting prosecuted for drug dealing, drug use and human trafficking.”

    “Sticking with the housing-first model would be the march of folly,” Collins said.

    Collins joined City Councilor Ed Flynn, who represents South Boston and the South End, in characterizing the plan put forward by Mayor Michelle Wu last summer to tackle crime, homelessness and drug use in the area as a failure.

    Both Collins and Flynn say the city should focus on cracking down on drug activity and crime, by arresting drug dealers, and getting addicts frequenting the area into long-term detox and treatment.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/boston-s-mass-and-cass-plan-failed-because-it-put-housing-before-treatment-massachusetts-senator-says/ar-BB1qSyK7

    2. “…the mayor’s decision to put housing before treatment is what doomed her plan.”

      A few fentanyl gumball machines would tidy-up downtown.

    1. Red Dawn 2025: After routing our “woke” feminized DEI Navy and Air Force, the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) conducts a massive amphibious landing off the coast of Southern California. PLA commanders report their progress inland is slowed by throngs of jubilant California libtards welcoming their PLA liberators and professing their hatred for America and freedom, and their undying love and devotion for Communism. Meanwhile, PLA sabotage cells and special operations teams infiltrated across Biden’s open borders before the outbreak of hostilities wreak havoc inside the United States, paralyzing transportation systems and energy grids as they implement the “Unrestricted Warfare” doctrine first spelled out by two PLA Staff Colonels in 1996 (link). The DNC and California Democrats immediately offer to pledge allegiance to their CCP ideological mentors, but Xi has other ideas. PLA squads round up the homeless drug addicts, effete soy bois, gangbangers, blue-haired feminist loons, and social parasites comprising the Democrat support base, and march them into the desert, never to be seen again. The few able-bodied male and female CA libtards are forced at gunpoint into work details and ordered to clean up the urban blight left by 50 years of Democrat-Bolshevik misrule, to make Los Angels fit for the millions of Chinese settlers who will soon be colonizing the U.S. West Coast as soon as PLA liquidation squads eliminate the leftist “useful idiots” who have outlived their usefulness.

      PLA “Unrestricted Warfare” PDF.

      https://www.c4i.org/unrestricted.pdf

  19. Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland says Canada and other Western democracies have “serious concerns” about Sunday’s disputed election in Venezuela.

    Venezuela’s electoral authority, which is controlled by loyalists of President Nicolás Maduro, declared the incumbent the winner of the presidential election even as the opposition disputed the results.

    The opposition said tallies they collected from campaign representatives at the voting centres had shown opposition candidate Edmundo González trouncing Mr. Maduro. Mr. González had been leading in all public opinion polls.

    Countries in the region including Chile, Brazil, Chile, Colombia and Peru have demanded to see proof of Mr. Maduro’s victory. Panama announced a temporary suspension of relations with the Maduro regime.

    Argentina’s populist president, Javier Milei, was blunt in denouncing the vote: “GET OUT, MADURO, YOU DICTATOR!!!” Mr. Milei wrote on X. “Venezuelans chose to put an end to Nicolás Maduro’s communist dictatorship. The data shows a crushing opposition victory and the world is waiting for the defeat of years of socialism, misery, decadence and death to be recognized.”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-canada-joins-democratic-nations-in-raising-serious-concerns-about/

    1. ohhhhhhhhhhhhhhh the irony.

      1. USA talking to other countries about “fair” elections.

      2. thinking that you can vote your way out of tyranny.

  20. Many of their investors, on the other hand, lost everything.

    Few things are as heartwarming as seeing the speculator scum getting fleeced and ending up as cautionary tales.

  21. A heated confrontation between a homeowner and a family of beachgoers in Laguna Beach, California, is going viral on social media.

    A video shared last week on TikTok by Rosie Garcia (@rosiecheeks_irl) shows an angry woman berating Garcia and her children, whom she accused of crossing onto her property at Victoria Beach in the upscale SoCal community.

    “Get f***ing moving. I’m not joking around!” the woman shouts while attempting to rope off a section of sand in front of an existing rope barrier. “It’s not harassment on the beach. It’s harassment in my home property … Get moving now!”

    The video, titled “Karen on Laguna Beach,” had more than 860,000 views as of Thursday afternoon. It does not show what preceded the woman’s tirade. However, Garcia claims they were never on her property.

    Garcia said she and her family were packing up their belongings when the woman first confronted them and told them they weren’t allowed to have a tent on the beach.

    “Ma’am, we’re f***ing walking,” Garcia replied as she and the children walked toward the stairs to leave the beach, the video shows.

    “Pretty f***ing slow,” the homeowner fired back.

    The video ends with more profanity and the beachgoer calling the woman “Karen of the week.”

    According to the California Coastal Commission, all beaches are public up to the mean high tide line.

    Garcia said she reported the incident to the Coastal Commission and was told officials would investigate.

    https://ktla.com/news/california/laguna-beach-woman-lashes-out-at-beachgoers-in-viral-karen-video/

    Video at the link.

    1. “Ma’am, we’re f***ing walking,” Garcia replied as she and the children walked toward the stairs to leave the beach, the video shows.

      Dropping f-bombs in front of children. Classy.

  22. The reality is that many condo investors are losing money. Of owners with a mortgage, 52 per cent were cash flow negative in 2022, meaning rents were not covering ownership costs which include mortgage, condo fees and property taxes.

    Die, speculator scum. Just die already.

  26. Building inspector here from out West. Permits have fallen off a cliff over the last two months. Dramatic drop.

    1. I’m in week four of a ten week project and I can’t get enough help to finish it. Commercial electrician working in Weld County, Northern Colorado.

      1. With the Asian supply chains in demographic doubt manufacturing facilities at home will be enjoying a renaissance. We need people who can produce things.

    1. Yahoo
      Motley Fool
      Top Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Billionaires Are Selling Right Now
      Justin Pope, The Motley Fool
      Tue, Jul 30, 2024, 7:15 AM PDT
      4 min read

      In this article:

      Institutional investors — aka, “the big money” — make up most of Wall Street’s trading volume, so it’s worth keeping an eye on what they’re doing because it can impact stock prices in the short term.

      For proof, look no further than these past few weeks, when many large technology stocks have begun sliding. Recent data indicates that in June, hedge funds and other institutions sold technology stocks at their sharpest pace in years. AI chip leader Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA) was among them, and its shares have now fallen by more than 16% since peaking in June.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/1-top-artificial-intelligence-ai-141500440.html

    2. Technology
      Nancy Pelosi Made Millions On NVIDIA – Here’s Her Next Stock Play
      NVDA Pelosi Header
      Canva
      Javier Simon
      Published: July 29, 2024 8:33 am
      Last Updated: July 30, 2024 3:58 pm

      Key Points

      – Nancy Pelosi in 2023 saw some of the highest investment wins in Congress with a 65.5% return.

      – Congress is not subject to the same insider trading rules as ordinary Americans are. So many retail investors keep a close eye on what they’re trading.

      – If you’re looking for stocks poised to ride the next big wave of AI spending, make sure to grab a complimentary copy of our brand-new “The Next NVIDIA” report. It features a software stock we’re confident has 10X potential and could be missing from your portfolio.
      …
      https://247wallst.com/technology-3/2024/07/29/nancy-pelosi-made-millions-on-nvidia-heres-her-next-stock-play/

  30. Only Months Left Until This Bubble Finally Bursts!

    Jon Flynn Real Estate Stats

    1 hour ago

    Historical data shows us this time it’s Canada’s turn for a significant downturn and crash in our real estate market. Major technical signals all point to an upcoming recession and declining house prices.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=STKBeMVBGDk

    16:21.

  31. ‘about 140 mostly ‘older’ habitat for humanity homeowners are on the brink of foreclosure. Another 75 to 100 are hanging by a thread. ‘I mean, there are people who call in tears. There are older people who are like, I don’t know what to do. I can’t go live on the street. I can’t lose my house,’ Oestreicher said. She says mortgages have doubled since the insurance crisis. Most of those facing foreclosures are older and retired with nowhere to go. Habitat for Humanity serves as both a homebuilder and lender for more than 750 homes in the New Orleans area. They have been working with the homeowners who are behind on their mortgages, waiting for them to catch up. But now, they’re pushed against the wall’

    That’s some sound lending right there Marguerite, and it’s to poor people. Senator running dear heap angry!

  32. ‘If your homeowners insurance has gone up a lot in recent years, you are definitely not alone. ‘Yes, almost double in the last two years,’ said Gabriella Hernandez, who owns a home in the Vedado neighborhood of West Palm Beach…For people like Gabriella, the options are not many. ‘If we sold the house anyway, we don’t have enough money to do something different’

    That’s right Gabriella, buckle down, yer fate is with this shack and you are a winnah!

  33. ‘In all, more than 120 properties were bought around town. No one really understands the strategy behind it. Recently, the wheels of the enterprise have fallen off. Mattson’s partner, Tim LeFever, has accused him of stealing from the company. The two former friends are suing each other. Many of the properties have fallen into foreclosure, allegedly because Mattson stopped making payments on the loans. And the residents fear the city will also take a hit for Mattson’s buying spree. ‘When they were bought, they were bought at such a high level over asking price, over value, that it increases the property values in our area,’ said Storment. ‘And then, when they’re going to get sold, there’s going to be a dive in our economy’

    I knew the headlines on this story for a few days from the Press Democrat, but it’s subscription only now. Obviously massive fraud. We’ll be hearing more I’m sure. Sound lending!

  34. ‘From roughly 2020 to 2022, ‘syndicators’ took over the apartment investment market. During that time, this group of dimwitted rent seekers used bridge loans to finance their apartment acquisitions. At 85% leverage, the bridge loans left only a sliver of equity to raise, for which these syndicators used third parties or online platforms built for anonymous fundraising from average Americans with cash to burn and no place to earn a yield in the zero interest rate environment of the time’

    It was obammie who forced through letting online/seminar nobodies raise money easily, relaxing SEC regs.

    ‘To the extent there was a business case underlying these acquisitions, it involved two sets of assumptions. First, that heavy renovations on apartments, financed by additional bridge loan money, would lead to immediate and massive increases in rent. Second, that benchmark interest rates would stay at or near zero for the foreseeable future’

    More than that, it was in the proformas. They were lent money based on future assumptions. Not only did they assume ‘immediate and massive increases in rent’, they lent assuming the massive increase would continue for the life of the loan.

    ‘These assumptions were foolhardy for a variety of reasons, but the point is moot. Syndicators’ primary motivations involved pocketing acquisition fees — collected up front and not tied in any way to future performance — before the Fed turned off the money tap and investors realized they had been duped. To that end, they’ve been wildly successful. Many of their investors, on the other hand, lost everything. One of the most voracious syndicators during the apartment bubble was Tides Equities, based in California. Headed by Sean Kia and Ryan Andrade, possessing a combined skill set that might equal that of a middling undergrad analyst, Tides ultimately acquired over 30,000 apartment units — a staggering figure for a team with no apparent investment management acumen’

    When I first posted this 30k airbox number, nobody was saying boo in the globalist scum media. It was strictly these CRE websites.

    ‘These two amassed over $8 billion in assets under management. Unfortunately, they were unable to keep the momentum going. After a solid two years stacking up mediocre properties at obscenely high prices, the Fed increased benchmark interest rates. One need not be familiar with every syndicator to understand their basic nature: largely unskilled, inexperienced, and emotionally undisciplined but deeply motivated by rent-seeking — the acquisition of wealth not by creating value but by deftly prying it from others…Talentless but ambitious founders rushed to fund property acquisitions during the bubble that went pear-shaped when rates increased. Properties owned by these syndicators are now largely distressed, in many cases sporting debt service coverage ratios under 0.5, meaning the properties generate less than half of the cash required to make loan payments’

    This is a scandal really. Too painful to acknowledge at the moment.

  35. ‘The couple, which goes by the Goodmans, said their 18th-floor unit ‘is now effectively worthless. Their dreams have been shattered, leaving them with a substantial financial loss and a profound sense of betrayal,’ according to the lawsuit. The Goodmans also claimed that the building is a ‘virtual ghost town,’ and alleged that only 16 out of 64 units have sold after three years’

    You really got schlonged Goodmans. And you can’t sell it. Thanks for the court filings!

  36. ‘So what is the math? The reality is that many condo investors are losing money. Of owners with a mortgage, 52 per cent were cash flow negative in 2022, meaning rents were not covering ownership costs which include mortgage, condo fees and property taxes . By 2023 that share had grown to 77 per cent and by the first quarter of this year, it reached 82 per cent. The bigger the condo, the larger the negative cash flow, said the study’

    I’m calling BS on this line of reporting out of K-da. These clowns have almost all lost money all along. Everybody knew it and talked about it. But the hotcakes were so red it didn’t matter, to the moon Alice!

  37. Their offer was declined, but after it was pulled off the market, they reapproached the seller with a sweeter price, hitting the top of their $1.8-million budget. It was accepted. ‘We offered a bit higher, but not as high as what the seller wanted’

    That’s the spirit Ira, the market needs knife catchers!

  38. ‘said holiday home sales reflected a trend among homeowners to do everything they could do preserve the family home. ‘If repayments start to become more unaffordable, the last thing most people want to do is sell the family home. So the holiday home, the car, the private school for the kids all go first’

    Yer all wrong here Louis. I would say school, car, FOOD before you give any shack away.

  39. ‘Jack said he now feels ‘sick’ and starts to shake whenever he hears or sees promotions for Rossdale. ‘You pay the money hoping they’ll come back (to fix defects) but they don’t,’ Jack said. Noeleen said the family ‘haven’t got our money’s worth’ after being promised a custom-built home. ‘I would lie awake at night so frustrated. Sometimes I’d just lie there and cry,’ Noeleen said. After the handover, they had loose threads in carpets, cracks in a wall and the staircase, loud whistling throughout the house on a windy day, bricks that needed cleaning, and tiles that were unevenly laid. ‘They rule unto themselves,’ Noeleen said. ‘You actually have no recourse. They put you in a position when you can do nothing, just wait for them to do what they want, when they want’

    I know yer kinda down right now Jack and Noeleen. But someday soon, you’ll see. You are among the strong winnahs!

  40. Globalist “Guru” Claims Trump’s Re-Election Will Mean ‘The Death of Global Order’

    By Brandon Smith

    Alt-Market.us

    July 22, 2024

    Yuval Harari is best known as a globalist “philosopher” or “guru” closely tied to the World Economic Forum. He is infamous for his Ted Talks and summit speeches declaring the coming abandonment of personal individualism and independence while elevating AI as the harbinger of a new technological religion. He joyously preaches about the fusion of AI technology with the human body to give certain elitist groups the power of “gods.” His notions of the supposedly infinite abilities of algorithms to influence culture and politics are so overblown they enter into the realm of children’s fantasy.

    I mention Harari often in my work because I believe he is a kind of litmus test for the true intentions of globalists. He’s a lot like Henry Kissinger in his New World Order zealotry – He has a hard time keeping his mouth shut about the greater agenda and this works to our advantage. If you really want to know what the elites plans are, look up past discussions by true believers like Harari. When they start preaching their dark gospel they can barely control themselves.

    Everything was riding on medical tyranny: They thought they were going to get vaccine passports which would have given them total economic control of the populace. They thought they were going to introduce CBDCs (digital currencies) and create a cashless society. They thought they were going to leverage the covid lockdowns into perpetual “climate lockdowns.” They got nothing and their agenda was fully exposed. The patriot movement in the US has exploded in popularity in response and now they have millions more rebels to contend with in the future.

    In response to their failure, many of the prominent names during the lockdowns have faded into the background. Klaus Schwab from the WEF was EVERYWHERE during covid; now he is gone. Anthony Fauci has slipped into obscurity. Authoritarian leaders like New Zealand’s Jacinda Ardern have stepped out of the political limelight. Where did they go?

    I think they know what’s coming. I think they fear a populist backlash, a rising of torches and pitchforks, and they are going into hiding. This is where we must address the issue of Donald Trump and how he is viewed by the globalists…

    In an interview earlier this year, Harari suggested that the return of Donald Trump would mean the “death of the global order.” He then gaslights, claiming that there is no fight between nationalism and globalism and that the idea of a “globalist conspiracy” is entirely a fabrication of populist movements. These people truly expect us to forget the censorship and oppression they attempted during covid.

    What I find most interesting is Harari’s take on the next few years, in which he offers what I would interpret as a thinly veiled threat. He argues that war is coming on an expansive scale unless nationalists (defenders of sovereignty) end their rebellion and return to “order” (the centralized control of the globalists). He ties this threat directly to Donald Trump.

    The thing is, Trump is just a reflection of a larger movement against the globalist regime. Getting rid of Trump would change nothing. In fact, getting rid of Trump might make the populace commit to full bore revolution even faster. And, if it ultimately turns out that Trump doesn’t benefit the cause of freedom from the elites, that same revolution will eventually happen without him.

    But is the “death of the global order” really a bad thing? I would say that it is only a negative if the globalists are left alive to continue to manipulate the chaos that follows. The real culprits behind war and economic collapse should be punished. They should be removed from power, imprisoned or done away with forever. Bottom line? The globalists need to go if real peace and order is ever to be established.

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/07/brandon-smith/globalist-guru-claims-trumps-re-election-will-mean-the-death-of-global-order/

    https://www.lewrockwell.com/2024/07/brandon-smith/globalist-guru-claims-trumps-re-election-will-mean-the-death-of-global-order/

  41. Why Do So Many People Take This Massive Risk? (Toronto Real Estate Market Update)

    Team Sessa Real Estate

    38 minutes ago

    In this episode we take a look at the current Toronto Real Estate Market specifically the detached home prices and market trends for week ending July 24, 2024. We also discuss how some people are still making the massive mistake of buying when needing to sell and getting themselves in trouble.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dHV5guiOEZc

    12:46.

  42. Will the next recession, when and if it ever happens, be the most over predicted one in history?

    1. The Bond Market Is Sounding an Alarm That May Signal a Stock Market Crash — but It Comes With a Silver Lining for Investors
      By Trevor Jennewine – Jul 30, 2024 at 4:45AM
      KEY POINTS

      – The 10-year and three-month Treasury yields have inverted before every recession since 1969, and that portion of the yield curve is inverted today.

      – The S&P 500 has declined by a median 35% during recessions since 1969, meaning investors tend to suffer big losses during economic downturns.

      – However, the next stock market crash could be a tremendous buying opportunity for investors, especially where artificial intelligence stocks are concerned.

      The Treasury yield curve has inverted before every recession since 1969, and the current inversion is the longest on record.

      Experts have waffled on whether the U.S. economy is headed for trouble. In October 2022, economists put the probability of a recession within 12 months at 63%, according to The Wall Street Journal. Inflation exceeded 8% at the time, and the Federal Reserve was raising interest rates at the fastest pace in decades. But the situation has changed dramatically since then.

      Inflation has cooled to the point where policymakers are expected to cut rates in September, and the economy has continued to expand. U.S. gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annualized 2.8% in the second quarter, while experts forecast just 2% growth. Economists now put the probability of a recession within 12 months at 28%. But investors are not out of the woods.

      Bloomberg recently published an opinion piece by Bill Dudley, the former president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. The headline speaks for itself: “I Changed My Mind. The Fed Needs to Cut Rates Now.” Dudley believes the economy is already slipping toward a recession, and that delaying rate cuts until September unnecessarily increases the risk.

      A bond market forecasting tool supports that conclusion. The Treasury yield curve has predicted every recession since 1969, and it has been sounding an alarm for 21 months, the longest on record. Should that warning prove accurate, a recession would almost certainly lead to a stock market crash.
      …
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/07/30/bond-market-alarm-stock-market-crash-silver-lining/

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