I Just Bought Myself A Nightmare
A report from News Channel 5 in Tennessee. “With higher interest rates these past couple years those looking to buy or sell a home have seen them stay on the market longer. The Greater Nashville Association of Realtors says in an increasing number of cases that’s led to price drops as sellers are looking to find a buyer. ‘Buyers can potentially sleep on the decision and not have to make a quick decision because of multiple offers and things like that,’ says Collyn Wainright.”
The Daily Mail on Colorado. “The housing market in Denver has cooled rapidly with prospective buyers shunning larger properties despite an increase in inventory, according to a report. Compared to July of last year, buyers now have 68 percent more listings available to them, but sales are still down. Due to the market cooling, there is now a reported seven-month supply of single-family homes priced above $2 million. While there is now enough condos and townhouses priced above $2 million to meet 16 months worth of sales. While Colleen Covell, a member of the associations committee, added: ‘This deacceleration in activity resulted in a tremendous increase in available inventory. Sellers with homes priced $1.5 million and above are experiencing the toughest buyer’s market in years.'”
“Denver is not the only city cooling down after a pandemic boom, with other major metropolitan areas around the country being affected. Among the ten housing markets experiencing the quickest cooldown, six are located in Florida, with an additional two in Texas. In western Florida, housing markets are experiencing the most extreme drop.”
Florida Politics. “The ‘Elliman Report,’ which provides assessments of the housing market on a monthly basis, showed July was yet another sluggish month for home sales in South Florida. July saw sales stumble in Palm Beach and Broward counties, while Miami-Dade saw a slight increase in home sales. As single-family home sales remain sluggish in South Florida, the number of properties listed on the market is causing a glut. All three South Florida counties saw substantial year-to-year increases in the number of homes listed for sale.”
WFLA in Florida. “It was an absolutely devastating scene in Sarasota Tuesday, as people are being taken back to their homes by boat to see just how bad the damage is. Matt Jonas walked through his home with floodwaters to his knees. He said after living in this house for the last four years through Hurricane Ian and other catastrophic storms, he never expected a tropical storm to leave this much damage. ‘We don’t have flood insurance,’ he said. ‘We weren’t required to have flood insurance. So this is families out of their house,’ he said. ‘Gone, everything is gone.’ It’s a devastating story that’s become a reality for so many families, as people like Joe Scotti accessed their home by boat only to find out almost everything they own is ruined. ‘I lost everything, and I’m homeless,’ Scotti said. ‘Now, I’m in big trouble. I don’t have any vehicles to work,’ he said. ‘I got no place to stay.'”
Consumer Affairs on California. “As Hurricane Debby left Florida sopping wet and headed north, homeowners’ minds turned to their insurance coverage. The inevitable result is skyrocketing premiums and outright cancellations for homeowners like Marisa, a thirtyish screenwriter and actor. Her three-level townhouse in the Studio City section of Los Angeles is roomy enough for a small studio in the basement. But the dam burst in 2023. Two water leaks caused by faulty plumbing caused more than $70,000 in damage. Next a huge storm swept through in the spring of 2024, once again flooding the property, thanks to an aging roof. The condo association is slowly repairing the damage while imposing an $8,000 special assessment on homeowners to replenish its contingency fund. All of this followed a $10,000 special assessment imposed by the condominium association to fund a foundation retrofit to make the aging building more resilient to earthquakes.”
“Time to sell? Maybe, but it’s pretty hard to sell a $1 million property that can’t be insured, since lenders aren’t in the business of writing mortgages for uninsurable homes. In fact, Marisa’s mortgage provides she must maintain a homeowners policy or be subject to foreclosure. A call to the mortgage company allayed that fear, at least temporarily. ‘Don’t quote me but we’re not foreclosing on people like you,’ a company rep told her. ‘We can’t get insurance either and we can’t sell a house nobody can insure. So just sit tight and maybe the state will do something eventually.'”
Palo Alto Online in California. “The 32,000-square-foot Palo Alto Hills home that made headlines in 2018 with its record-breaking price tag of nearly $100 million, has finally sold — at a $65 million discount. The home, which had been on and off the market for more than five years, sold for $35 million on July 18 after most recently being re-listed for $53.9 million in July 2023, according to data from Zillow.”
My Northwest in Washington. “As one of downtown’s busiest Starbucks temporarily closed its doors over safety concerns, prominent members of the Seattle business community are speaking out forcefully and publicly about the continuing crime and homelessness crises. ‘Why do we continue to tolerate these open-air drug markets downtown at Third & Pike/Pine and Third and James/Yesler?’ Patrick Foley, co-founder and managing partner at Lake Union Partners, wrote to King County Executive Dow Constantine. ‘This man has purposely kept the downtown jail staffing at COVID levels (roughly 50% capacity) not out of necessity, but because he believes people dealing and consuming fentanyl out in the open, passed out on our sidewalks, smashing windows, starting fires, using the streets as a bathroom, and stealing from stores like Target and Nordstrom don’t belong in jail or some form of forced treatment.'”
“‘Walking downtown is embarrassing. The drug addiction and mental health crises are glaringly apparent,’ Investment Manager Jeffery Judson-Baker, the wrote in an open letter. ‘Stepping off the light rail near my home in Pioneer Square or in Westlake Center, I see drug addicts folded in half and manic episodes untreated. Commuters step over needles, trash, and human waste. Many favorite restaurants and shops remain boarded up. Once vibrant, downtown Seattle now can feel at times like a wasteland.’ Meanwhile, downtown Seattle home prices have taken a nosedive, now cheaper than the citywide average for the first time in nearly a decade.”
Bisnow Washington DC. “In the early years of the pandemic, multifamily construction was booming. Money was cheap and plentiful, and developers were gobbling it up, building apartments and condos at record speed, leaning into an asset class that — especially compared to office — looked like a golden goose. But the developers of those new buildings are now feeling the effects of a quick and dramatic reversal. ‘Most of the new projects are in hot water right now,’ Virginia Investment Properties CEO Srinivas Chavali said. ‘They’re in big trouble.’ Chavali makes a business out of buying distressed loans and properties in the D.C. metro, and he’s seen a dramatic shift in the amount of new multifamily distress.”
“The financial troubles are coming despite the underlying multifamily market remaining relatively stable: Class-A rents across the D.C. Metro area increased by 3.5% over the past year, according to Transwestern’s second-quarter report. ‘While the asset isn’t distressed, the capital stack is,’ Greysteel Senior Director TC Cosby said. ‘In D.C., rents are fine, things are going well, it’s not really that the asset isn’t a clean and good asset. It’s more a function of the capital stack needs to be reimagined, maybe reset at a lower basis. That’s the dynamic going on in D.C., but also across the country.'”
“The Lanes is one of several new multifamily buildings that have gone into foreclosure over the last few months. But those are just the tip of the iceberg, experts say. The distress is manifesting itself in a number of ways, from banks selling off loans they don’t want to carry on their books, to forced sales, to owners searching out rescue capital to fill the gaps. ‘There is a very hidden, significantly growing challenge,’ Acumen Cos. Investment Committee Chair AZ Abiud said. ‘It’s very hidden, you’re not seeing it. Lenders want to control it, want to control a narrative, so it doesn’t create panic. We are chasing every pre-foreclosure that’s coming out,’ Abiud said, ‘We have a list of them, hundreds of them, on a regular basis.'”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Toronto home sales fell in July despite a second recent interest rate cut, as inventory piled up and sapped the motivation of buyers to make purchases. Instead, homeowners have been putting their homes up for sale, especially those who own condos. Active listings, or the amount of inventory up for sale, are at the highest level since the 2008-09 financial crisis. Because home prices have been steady and because there is a high volume of homes for sale, buyers believe they have more time to shop for a property. ‘It’s not putting pressure on buyers to get in now,’ said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. ‘Buyers will jump in when they see prices start to rise,’ she said.”
“Prospective buyers are even less motivated to purchase a condo given the amount of supply on the market. Last month, there were nearly 9,000 active condo listings, which is a record high. Owners are trying to sell their condos as a slew of new units are also being completed this year.”
Blog TO in Canada. “Thanks to the well-supplied market, many properties — including this Brampton home — sold well below the original selling prices. The detached home first sold in February 2022 for $1.73 million, at a time when cheaper borrowing rates contributed to skyrocketing prices and heightened demand throughout the GTA’s real estate market. Two years later, the home was listed for just under $1.5 million, marking the first attempt to resell the home. In April 2024, the home was put back on the market for just under $1.4 million, and again in June for $1.388 million. Finally, the home was sold in July 2024 for $1.3 million — representing a loss of $430,000 when compared to its price just two and a half years earlier.”
Radio New Zealand. “The lease of Ngāti Whātua Ōrākei’s downtown Auckland land at the former Railway Lands, Te Tōangaroa, comes up for review in August next year. The leasehold terms included a ground-rent free period until 2011, and then reviews at seven-year intervals. It is the site of many apartment buildings, including the Scene buildings. Scott Dunn, of City Sales, said his firm had listed 11 or 12 properties on the leasehold land in recent weeks. Dunn said there could be a situation where ground rent had increased ahead of incomes, or the rent that tenants were paying investors who owned apartments on the land. ‘In seven years the ground rent could double, which has decimated some people,’ he said.”
“He said many of the apartments had been working well as investment properties but that could change. ‘I believe the next one will be the most interesting yet, my feeling is that a lot of these, this will be the time that the ground rent gets so high that income – rent from tenants – won’t cover it for a lot of properties. They worked very well for a while. The last rent review a lot of them went close to double and that shocked a lot of people but there are still people I’m talking to now who went through the last review but are saying ‘oh well I’m getting good rent’. I’m like ‘you know what happened last time’ but some people might still have their heads in the sand a little bit.'”
ABC News in Australia. “For Martin and Joanne Rodden, signing up to build a new home in December 2020 was meant to be the start of a bright future. Aided by $45,000 from state and federal building stimulus grants, the married couple were going to build the perfect home to retire in, with a bedroom on the ground floor that would make life easier after Mr Rodden’s double knee replacement. Instead, three-and-a-half years later, they have watched their incomplete house become damaged by the weather, have still been working and have no idea when, or even if, the house would be finished. ‘The mental and financial burden on us victims of this particular builder is pathetic,’ Mr Rodden said. ‘It’s a torment. My wife suffers with anxiety, and this has put her over the top.'”
“Fellow Inspired Homes client Andrew Scott said he regretted his decision to build as a result of the stimulus grants. He signed a contract with Inspired Homes in December 2020 and was paying both a mortgage and rent on a flat in Perth for a few years. When his rent increased from $310 to $450 a week, beyond what he could cover, he moved to Queensland to live with his parents. ‘[The grants] were $55,000 in total, including a stamp duty discount,’ Mr Scott said. ‘That was great at the time, it looked really good, there was no indication from Inspired that it would take them three-and-a-half years to build a house under those conditions. Whatever benefit I would have received from that $55,000 is long gone, I just bought myself a nightmare with that money. But the builders have profited from it and there’s a lot of people suffering as a result.’ Like the Roddens, his house is still far from finished and there is no sign of work being done.”
From Bloomberg. “Banks are expected to take more enforcement actions on distressed buildings amid Hong Kong’s property market downturn, according to PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP. That’s based on the estimate of the firm’s partner Christopher So, whose team oversees a portfolio of real estate under receivership valued at more than HK$10 billion ($1.28 billion). ‘Lenders tend to give borrowers some breathing space at the beginning. But if it’s clear that the negotiation is not going anywhere, banks may consider taking enforcement actions,’ said So, who leads PwC’s restructuring and insolvency practice. ‘Many banks have put collateral under receivership in the past six to 12 months.'”
“A slew of luxury residential units are hitting the market as rich local families have been caught up by a debt crunch. High interest rates and low rental yield are also deterring investors. The city’s office vacancy rate hit a historic high of 16.9% in the first half of the year, while rental prices are expected to fall as much as 10% in 2024, according to CBRE Group Inc. ‘The distress in Hong Kong’s property market is taking a toll on everyone,’ said Raymond Kwong, an associate director at PwC Hong Kong’s restructuring and insolvency practice. ‘We are certainly going through a challenging time.'”
This Post Has 103 Comments
Comments are closed.
‘Marisa’s mortgage provides she must maintain a homeowners policy or be subject to foreclosure. A call to the mortgage company allayed that fear, at least temporarily. ‘Don’t quote me but we’re not foreclosing on people like you,’ a company rep told her. ‘We can’t get insurance either and we can’t sell a house nobody can insure. So just sit tight and maybe the state will do something eventually’
You guys are really fooked if you think ‘the state’ is going to do anything right. They’ll make it worser.
And it’s likely that Marissa’s screenwriting and acting gigs have dried up.
Hollywood’s “woke” propaganda packaged as “entertainment” have been stinkers at the box office. Yet they keep giving us more of the same. Globalists gonna globe.
From what I have read, the streaming services have cut back quite a bit on original programming, as suddenly turning a profit has become very important. It’s much cheaper to “raid the vault” and show old stuff.
Disney’s MO. I think both of us are old enough to remember when Disney would recycle their movies in the theatres every seven years or so.
Parents were practically forced to take their kids to the movies, because it was the only chance to see it. I remember being dragged to Fantasia when I was a kid.
Of course VHS destroyed that little cash cow, but it was somewhat revived with Disney+. My guess would be that most parents bought Disney+ to keep their kids quiet with 50-year-old Winnie The Pooh.
Hollywood Is Abandoning “The Message” | August 5, 2024
The Critical Drinker
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WxFlOd2zOR8
To the best of my knowledge, the California FAIR Plan is the only insurance currently available in the state.
“Don’t quote me but we’re not foreclosing on people like you”
Translation: they’re foreclosing next week.
Banks are playing extend & pretend. Starting the foreclosure process means paper losses turn to real losses. Mark-to-market accounting will be the death knell for the ‘Murican financial system.
‘While the asset isn’t distressed, the capital stack is,’ Greysteel Senior Director TC Cosby said. ‘In D.C., rents are fine, things are going well, it’s not really that the asset isn’t a clean and good asset. It’s more a function of the capital stack needs to be reimagined, maybe reset at a lower basis. That’s the dynamic going on in D.C., but also across the country’
They paid too much for the land TC.
“…The condo association is slowly repairing the damage while imposing an $8,000 special assessment on homeowners to replenish its contingency fund. All of this followed a $10,000 special assessment imposed by the condominium association to fund a foundation retrofit to make the aging building more resilient to earthquakes…”
Another Wednesday, another out-of-control holding costs story.
‘We don’t have flood insurance,’ he said. ‘We weren’t required to have flood insurance. So this is families out of their house,’ he said. ‘Gone, everything is gone.’
No one could’ve foreseen tropical storms hitting Florida.
“…We weren’t required to have flood insurance….”
1] Boy Scout Analog: “We weren’t required to look both ways before crossing against a red light, but he still got run over anyway”
2] On the bright side, the Florida REIConplex is now including a brand new canoe with every home purchase.
‘Most of the new projects are in hot water right now,’ Virginia Investment Properties CEO Srinivas Chavali said. ‘They’re in big trouble.’
Die, speculator scum.
“Meanwhile, downtown Seattle home prices have taken a nosedive, now cheaper than the citywide average for the first time in nearly a decade.”
There’s always a silver lining.
‘It’s not putting pressure on buyers to get in now,’ said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. ‘Buyers will jump in when they see prices start to rise,’ she said.”
Three things:
1. Karen is a realtor
2. Realtors are liars
3. The Fed’s currency debasement means prices might rise in debauched fiat currency “value,” but the concurrent “cost of living crisis” coupled with #Bidenomics means a dramatically shrinking pool of qualified, willing buyers. So in real terms, deflation – the worst nightmare for FBs – is coming.
4. Karen is a Karen
(I used to date one!)
No discussion of comparative shack prices is complete without factoring in the effect of the Fed’s fiat currency fraud on the dollar’s purchasing power. If, for example, a given shack reverts to its 2011 sale price, this is not an apples-to-apples comparison, since the 2011 dollar had more purchasing power than its 2024 equivalent. So in real terms, the loss of Yellen Bux “value” is going to be even more pronounced than the data would indicate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK_rYS8L3kI
The distress in Hong Kong’s property market is taking a toll on everyone,’ said Raymond Kwong, an associate director at PwC Hong Kong’s restructuring and insolvency practice.
It’s not taking a toll on young people who don’t have a hope in hell of ever owning their own skyboxes unless prices plummet.
Denver7 — City of Aurora plans to quickly close apartment complex, citing ‘substantial’ code violations (8/6/2024):
“The City of Aurora plans to close an apartment complex with a long list of code violations that have plagued residents for years, leaving many to scramble to find new housing as they’ll be forced to vacate in a matter of days.
CBZ officials admitted its property management team has not been on site and claimed a notorious Venezuelan gang known as Tren de Aragua is the reason. A public relations firm the company hired sent Denver7 a statement it said was from a property investor who wanted to remain anonymous for safety reasons.
“Because we care for the safety of our tenants, and other members of the community, what we will say is, that the issue of Tren de Aragua taking over properties and communities in Aurora means that we are not able to be present on this property, or any of our other properties in similar situations, also being impacted by gang presence,” the investor said. “We would like to be able to resume normal operations at our buildings, but we cannot do so under the threat of present and immediate danger against residents, staff, and management. This is an issue our city needs to face head-on with law enforcement and the further support of our state and country’s leaders to protect affected tenants, the surrounding communities, and Americans across the nation.”
https://www.denver7.com/news/front-range/aurora/city-of-aurora-plans-to-quickly-close-apartment-complex-citing-substantial-code-violations
“They’re not sending their best”
More shenanigans. See chart.
https://nitter.poast.org/profplum99/status/1820846820320251999#m:
The good thing is that we now know the GDP number for Q3 2024 is likely to be positive and “above potential”.
The bad news is that we know this because the accuracy of GDPNow in predicting GDP is impossibly high, suggesting the BEA is effectively using GDPNow-type models post pandemic rather than prior methodology.
Is now when the rate daters are vindicated for their financial savvy?
Weekly mortgage refinance demand soars 16% as rates sink to lowest level in over a year
Published Wed, Aug 7 2024 7:00 AM EDT
Updated 3 Hours Ago
Diana Olick
Key Points
– The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($766,550 or less) decreased to 6.55% from 6.82%
– Applications to refinance a home loan, which are most sensitive to weekly rate changes, jumped 16% for the week and were 59% higher than the same week one year ago.
– Applications for a mortgage to purchase a home increased just 1% for the week but were still 11% lower than the same week one year ago.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/08/07/weekly-mortgage-refinance-demand-soars-16percent-as-rates-sink-to-lowest-level-in-over-a-year.html
Not nearly enough of a drop in rates to make the rate daters happy. Once you factor in 4k to 10k in closing costs you need at least a 1.5 drop in rate to be worth it. I used to run this math all the time for folks when I was in the biz.
I used to run this math all the time for folks when I was in the biz.
Our company had a spreadsheet that clients could use to determine their payback period based on loan size and Closing cost assumptions. It ain’t cheap refinancing.
Is it safe to come up from the basement, now that the market storm has passed?
Financial Times
Yen
Unwinding of yen ‘carry trade’ still threatens markets, say analysts
Resurgent Japanese currency forces speculators to shut down years’ worth of bets that could run into trillions of dollars
Pedestrians walking in front of the The Bank of Japan headquarters in Tokyo, Japan
The Bank of Japan’s surprise interest rate increase has forced investors to rapidly unwind their carry trades
Yuichi Yamazaki/AFP via Getty Images
Leo Lewis and David Keohane in Tokyo
3 hours ago
The global unwinding of the world’s biggest “carry trade” has the potential to destabilise markets further, analysts have said, as the resurgent Japanese currency forces speculators to shut down bets that could run into hundreds of billions of dollars.
Over the past three years, the yen version of the carry trade — borrowing in a low-interest-rate country to fund investment in assets elsewhere that offer higher returns — has exploded because of Japan’s ultra-low rates.
A stronger yen, buoyed by last week’s Bank of Japan interest rate rise, has forced hedge funds and other investors to rapidly unwind their carry trades. This has contributed to turbulence in global markets, including a dramatic sell-off on Monday, as investors rushed to dump assets they had purchased by borrowing in yen.
“You can’t unwind the biggest carry trade the world has ever seen without breaking a few heads,” said Kit Juckes, a currency strategist at Société Générale, referring to the now global hunt to identify the next casualties in bond, equity and alternative asset markets around the world.
By some estimates, the yen carry trade has grown to become one of the biggest ever iterations of the bet, with the cheap fundraising in yen pouring into everything from emerging market currencies such as the Mexican Peso to Taiwanese equities, real estate and US tech stocks.
…
Editors’ Pick
Is The AI Bubble About To Burst?
Bernard Marr
Contributor
Aug 7, 2024,01:46am EDT
Updated Aug 7, 2024, 11:30am EDT
Following a turbulent few weeks in the stock market, there’s a lot of speculation that the AI “bubble” may be about to burst.
Many companies that are involved in AI have seen the value of their stock rocket dramatically over the past year or so. The most celebrated example is Nvidia, whose stock price has more than tripled since last summer. Others heavily invested in AI, such as Google and Microsoft, have also seen large increases.
Big leaps in stock price—particularly when they seem difficult to link to the generation of real value—are sometimes seen by analysts as an indicator that prices are due for a correction.
It’s hard to shake the feeling that we’ve seen all of this before. The hype and excitement around the newly emerged internet, which peaked in early 2000, was swiftly followed by the bursting of the “dot-com bubble.” Many companies went out of business, the economy experienced a significant downturn, and many jobs were lost.
So, is this a bubble? While it is said that AI could add around $15 trillion to the value of the global economy, recent earnings reports from the likes of Google and Tesla have been less than stellar, leading to the recent dips in share prices. At the same time, there are reports that the general public is becoming more distrustful of AI and that businesses are finding it difficult to make money from it.
Does this mean that the AI revolution—touted as holding the solution to problems as diverse as curing cancer and saving the environment—is about to come crashing down around our ears?
Personally, I don’t think so.
…
https://www.forbes.com/sites/bernardmarr/2024/08/07/is-the-ai-bubble-about-to-burst/
Considering the worst is over, it seems like lots of stocks are CR8Ring today.
Will the Fed Let the Markets Drop by 80%?
12h43 ▪ 9 min read ▪ by Satosh
Getting informed
Investissement
The markets have historically plummeted in recent days. Could we be heading towards a new descent into hell, or will the Fed lower rates and trigger a new stock market boom?
…
https://www.cointribune.com/en/will-the-fed-let-the-markets-drop-by-80/
A popular trading strategy just blew up in investors’ faces
Analysis by Allison Morrow, CNN
Updated 11:09 AM EDT, Wed August 7, 2024
01:02 – Source: CNN
What to do when the market tanks? Expert says ‘just go read a book’
New York CNN —
Sometimes, markets tumble because of a big, unambiguous event, like a pandemic or a war or an economic slowdown. Sometimes, they fall because of less visible forces, like high-level financial shenanigans designed to generate profits out of thin air.
This week, markets have been grappling with both.
The selloff on Wall Street began last week with some fundamental concerns: Tech earnings were disappointing, and there were red flags in the US labor market that could indicate a serious slowdown in the world’s biggest economy.
But the financial shift that poured gasoline on the fire is more obscure, and so technical that even some longtime investors struggle to explain it succinctly.
When you hear commentators talking this week about the “yen carry trade” or the “great unwind,” they’re referring to a popular trading strategy that is, suddenly, blowing up in investors’ faces.
The carry trade, explained
Put simply: A carry trade is when you borrow money in a place where interest rates are low and use it to invest elsewhere in assets that generate some kind of return.
For years, the place to get money on the cheap has been Japan, where interest rates have held steadily at or near zero.
An investor could borrow Japanese yen (for a small fee) and use that yen to buy, say, US tech stocks or government bonds or the Mexican peso — all of which have offered solid returns in recent years. In theory, as long as the yen remains low against the dollar, you can pay back what you borrowed and still walk away with a tidy profit.
“For the century so far, you would have made more money in the yen-peso carry trade than you would have done in the S&P 500,” Bloomberg columnist John Authers said on the Big Take Daily podcast. “That is bonkers.”
…
https://cnn.com/cnn/2024/08/07/business/yen-carry-trade-stocks-nightcap
Stock market likely to retest lows in 4-step recovery process, history suggests
‘Markets could feel the effects of Monday’s shock for several weeks,’ NDR analysts say
By William Watts
Published: Aug. 7, 2024 at 4:16 p.m. ET
It could be a bumpy ride.
Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto
A turnaround Tuesday followed by a wobbly Wednesday on Wall Street leaves stock-market investors wondering how to proceed after the S&P 500 suffered its largest one-day drop in nearly two years to kick off the week.
The bad news is that history suggests a retest of those Monday lows is likely in order; the good news is that the market is likely to regain its mojo in the coming weeks, as long as a recession remains at bay and the latest episode proves to be nothing more than a growth scare, argued Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist, and Thanh Nguyen, senior quantitative analyst, at Ned Davis Research in a Wednesday note.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-market-likely-to-retest-lows-in-4-step-recovery-process-history-suggests-149c74b2
“…as long as a recession remains at bay…”
This brings to mind a passage from the Scottish play:
“I pull in resolution and begin
To doubt the equivocation of the fiend
That lies like truth, ‘Fear not till Birnam wood
Do come to Dunsinane’, and now a wood
Comes toward Dunsinane. – Arm, arm, and out!”
Opinion
The Guardian view on a tech bubble going pop: AI pays the price for inflated expectations
Editorial
Investors may have got too excited about something they don’t fully understand – and are now paying the price
Wed 7 Aug 2024 14.06 EDT
Has the artificial intelligence bubble burst? The question has been on the lips of many this week as they have watched the stock market slide, with billions wiped off the value of technology companies that had boomed since the arrival of large language models. It was the economist Hyman Minsky who thought Wall Street encouraged too much risk and gulled investors into parting with cash for all the wrong reasons. The result was ruinous boom-and-bust cycles. His model began with “displacement”, which is when investors get excited about something they don’t fully understand – something like AI.
Last year, OpenAI’s ChatGPT chatbot got to 100 million users in two months. What follows displacement, according to Minsky, is boom, euphoria, profit-taking and panic. There’s been a boom. It is reported that more than 200 AI startups globally are unicorns – meaning they’re valued at $1bn or more.
There’s been plenty of euphoria too. Earlier this year, a report by the Wall Street Journal claimed that the CEO of OpenAI, Sam Altman, was in talks with investors to raise between $5tn and 7tn to reshape the global chip industry and thereby ensure the supply of the necessary computing power. The assumption here is that all that is needed to approach lifelike sentience is to increase computing power and make available the data to crunch. There are surely too many expectations for that bet to be a sure thing.
We could very well be in the stage of profit-taking. This is when there is a Wile E Coyote moment for stocks. When the cartoon character has run off a cliff, he looks down and realises that he’s standing on thin air – and plunges. With markets, investors suddenly clock that prices can’t just keep rising – and need to pull out their cash, causing share prices to crash.
That’s been happening to semiconductor stocks, particularly Nvidia, which is the only company currently capable of producing the graphics processing unit chips that power AI.
…
https://theguardian.com/commentisfree/article/2024/aug/07/the-guardian-view-on-a-tech-bubble-going-pop-ai-pays-the-price-for-inflated-expectations
The Economist
Finance & economics | Fit to drop
The stockmarket rout may not be over
As investors pause for breath, we assess what could turn a correction into a crash
Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange in New York on August 5th 2024
Photograph: Getty Images
Aug 6th 2024
For a while on August 5th things were looking awful. During the Asian trading session Japan’s benchmark Topix share index had fallen by 12%, marking its worst day since 1987. Stock prices in South Korea and Taiwan had tanked by 9% and 8% respectively, and European markets were falling. Before trading began in America, the VIX index, which measures how wildly traders expect share prices to swing, was at a level it had only reached early in the covid-19 pandemic and after Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Ominously, though gold is usually a hedge against chaos, its price was falling—suggesting that investors might be selling assets they would rather hold on to in order to stay afloat. The previous week’s rout in global markets seemed to be spiralling into a full-blown crisis.
Mercifully, the panic started to ebb once Wall Street opened for business. The VIX fell back to only its highest during the crash of 2022; by the end of the day the S&P 500 index of large American firms was down by a painful, but not catastrophic, 3%. On August 6th European markets were fairly flat and Asian ones staged a blistering recovery, especially in Japan, where the Topix rose by 9%. Half an hour after the opening bell had rung in New York, the S&P 500 was up by 1%. Traders may be able to pause for breath and a few hours’ sleep. Even as they do so, however, one question looms large. Did markets simply succumb to a brief bout of summer madness, or is the worst still to come?
…
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/08/06/the-stockmarket-rout-may-not-be-over
** “Mr Rodden said. ‘It’s a torment. My wife suffers with anxiety, and this has put her over the top.”
oh NO! not ANXIETY !?? “over the TOP”, you say . . . !??!
yer not starving.
yer not dying from exposure.
not in a bad living area.
drought?
heat?
cold !??
NO, it’s just “a aaa aa anxious”!
who the hell ISN’T “Anxious”?
being worried is just part of life. get over it.
how the HELL did humans become such P***ys ?!
how did we ever manage to fight a world war !?
land on the moon !?
what has happened to us ?!
why do we whimper & act like perpetual victims !?
Far too many people have never had to solve real problems or face adversity. Many eschew jobs where they have to get things done, and done correctly, on a deadline.
Hard times make strong men
Strong men make good times
Good times make weak men
Weak men make hard times
The four turnings.
Radical-left Squad members don’t react well to getting bilged by AIPAC.
https://x.com/catturd2/status/1821198149081559306
Started to watch the video and the only I picked up was her ranting “Let’s be Clear, Let’s be clear.” I couldn’t finish the rest.
Sick burn on Crooked Hillary. Regardless of who wins the election, I look forward to the next 3 months of memes flaming the libs.
https://x.com/saras76/status/1821191539265303043
Not available.
Oh dear…speculator dreams of “guests” paying off the mortgages on their “investment” properties are dying in the arse.
https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/airbnb-earnings-stock-price-2d358678?mod=mw_latestnews
The internet never forgets, Tim Walz. During the scamdemic you used your office of governor to push a Stasi-like scheme to encourage Branch COVIDians to inform on their neighbors who failed to comply with your dictatorial “mandates” and lockdowns. Never forgive, never forget, what these Bolshevik control freaks & globalist stooges did during the scamdemic, and will do again if they get the opportunity.
https://x.com/redsteeze/status/1820969431985467520
+1
F* this guy, and all of the voters of his blue sh*thole state that voted for him.
Right now, all I see on X are well-written conservative posts — which independents will never see — and nya-nya-nya responses from the Kamabla camp which are likely paid bots.
It’s no use at this point. There is not a single undecided mind left in this country. It’s all about GTOV and ballot harvesting now.
California got hit by a 5.2 magnitude earthquake.
https://www.abc15.com/weather/dozens-of-aftershocks-felt-after-magnitude-5-2-quake-shakes-california
Florida’s largest insurer has requested a 13.5 percent rate hike but says it needs a nearly 93 percent increase to match the competitive market.
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-biggest-insurer-increase-rates-1935388
NP. Florida wage-earners are averaging 13.5% boosts in their take-home pay.
Oh, wait….
NP. Florida ‘owners’ can always self-insure.
Oh, wait…
“…We don’t have flood insurance,’ he said. ‘We weren’t required to have flood insurance…” “…‘Gone, everything is gone.’ …”
And they can always sell – UHS.
“There’s never been a better time to buy in Florida.” — Florida NAR
It’s almost literally true, so long as you are willing to reduce your price to what the current market will bear.
Most homeowners are not willing.
Pretty much everyone hates the idea of having to bring a check to closing.
Be afraid, AirBnB speculator scum. Be very afraid.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/ABNB/
A reader sent these in:
Bank of Japan
1. Prints insane amounts of money.
2. Becomes largest holder of ETFs in the Nikkei, incentivizing investors to purchase Japanese ETFs borrowing in yen.
3. Yen falls to 40-year lows
4. BOJ blames “speculators”. A classic.
5. BOJ spends billions stabilizing the yen
6. Yen rises, market declines, margin calls jump, Nikkei plummets. Black Monday.
You think this is “free market”.
https://x.com/dlacalle_IA/status/1820725053438210378
How can you not think it’s all RIGGED after today?
They turned off all the trading platforms this morning when we started seeing some real selling.
Now the NIKKEI is up 12% after being down 12% yesterday.
What a clown show 🤡
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1820657987981103442
Unlikely we see a sudden labor market recovery post-cuts given the direction of (quicker) weakening.
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1820878757965738054
Who eats cereal anymore? It’s about $10
https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1820845047916679546
Kellogg’s announced to its employees Tuesday morning that it will be closing its Omaha plant after more than 60 years.”
Probably 30-35 million in taxable income. Will destroy schools, police and fire departments.
https://x.com/logantradesx/status/1820846734656053575
you’re forgetting how many people took out really horrible loans to buy more than one property. The “investors” are the ones that can cause the housing problem. And it’s already happening. + this time massive increases in home insurance are playing a factor in housing as well.
https://x.com/DizzleTheRizzle/status/1820842132103684580
TIAA, one of the nation’s largest financial firms, informed its employees Tuesday morning that it is closing its Denver operations center and eliminating about 1,000 jobs.
https://x.com/MacroEdgeRes/status/1820895466361655510
They turned off all the trading platforms this morning when we started seeing some real selling.
As stawks were plunging on Monday, major trading platforms like Schwab, E*Trade, etc. experienced “glitches” that prevented baggies from executing trades. Welcome to the Hotel California….
Who eats cereal anymore? It’s about $10
$10? Where? Prices have gone up, but you can get it for a lot less at warehouse clubs. Heck, it’s not even close to that expensive at King Soopers.
I just checked. A 55 oz (3.4 lbs) box of Frosted Flakes is $7.88 at the local Sams Club.
is closing its Denver operations center and eliminating about 1,000 jobs
That’ll leave a mark.
I know someone who has worked at and out of that Denver office for almost two decades, and he is NOT taking a relocation offer to move to Texas.
more than 60 years.”
60 years ago was 1964. In 1964, the US population was ~175 million, or half of what it is today. Surely the demand for Corn Flakes is not less than it was in 1960, so wouldn’t they still need most of this plant even with a drop in sales?
I have to wonder if this was an older less efficient plant anyway, and a small drop in sales allows them to close this plant and transfer the demand to other newer plants.
I have to wonder if this was an older less efficient plant anyway, and a small drop in sales allows them to close this plant and transfer the demand to other newer plants.
That would be my guess as well.
Toronto police say an internal investigation is underway after a video circulating on social media appeared to show an officer giving a citizen the middle finger over an argument about alleged illegal parking last week.
In the video two Toronto police officers are seen ordering Starbucks in the area of Front and Berkeley streets near the city’s Distillery District on Friday afternoon.
As they order, their vehicle appears to be parked in a no-parking zone on Berkeley Street.
When the officers return to their vehicle with drinks in hand, the citizen, who filmed the encounter, asks the officers if they are legally allowed to park in the area.
While one officer says he “doesn’t know,” the other appears to concede that they were parked in a no-parking zone.
“I get where you’re coming from, but at the end of the day, like, we have to work 11 hours, we need caffeine,” she said.
The exchange continues for several minutes and the officers eventually get back in their cruiser. The video then shows one of them giving the citizen the middle finger from the passenger seat of the cruiser.
The individual who took the video later told CP24 that he doesn’t believe the officer knew they were being filmed as by that point he had put away the body camera he was using previously. The footage, he said, came from a pair of glasses with a built-in camera.
In an email to CP24, Toronto police confirmed that its Professional Standards Unit is investigating the incident.
“While we can’t speak to the specifics of the incident captured in the video, we acknowledge the officer’s response was not appropriate,” they said.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/toronto-police-investigating-after-video-appears-to-show-officer-giving-citizen-the-middle-finger-1.6990523
With all the hubris of a startup founder, Alberto Carvalho, superintendent of Los Angeles Unified School District, took to the stage in March to launch Ed the chatbot. He told parents and students it had “the potential to personalize the educational journey at a level never before seen in this district, across the country, or around the world.”
“No other technology can deliver real time on this promise,” he said. “We know it will succeed.”
In June, after only three months and nearly $3 million, the district shelved Ed following layoffs of more than half of the staff at AllHere, the startup that made the conversational AI assistant. District spokesperson Britt Vaughan refused to answer questions about the bot’s performance or say how many students and parents used it before the shutdown.
Also in June, an AI controversy unfolded in San Diego, where school board members reportedly weren’t aware that the district last summer bought a tool that automatically suggests grades for writing assignments. The dustup began after Point Loma High School teacher Jen Roberts told CalMatters that using the tool saved her time and reduced burnout but also gave students the wrong grade sometimes. A week later, Voice of San Diego quoted two members of the school board saying they were unaware the district had signed a contract involving AI. In fact, no one on the board seemed to know about the tool, the news outlet said, since it was included as part of a broader contract with Houghton Mifflin that was approved unanimously with no discussion alongside more than 70 other items. (None of the board members responded to CalMatters’ requests for comment. San Diego Unified School District spokesperson Michael Murad said that since AI is a quickly evolving technology, “we will make an increased effort to inform board members of additional relevant details related to contracts presented to them in the future.”)
Mistakes in Los Angeles and San Diego may trace back to growing pressure on educators to adopt AI and underline the need for decision-makers to ask more and tougher questions about such products before buying them, said people who work at the intersection of education and technology. Outside experts can help education leaders better vet AI solutions, these people said, but even just asking basic questions, and demanding answers in plain English, can go a long way toward avoiding buyer’s remorse.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/california-s-two-biggest-school-districts-botched-ai-deals-here-are-lessons-from-their-mistakes/ar-AA1olzMK
Airbnb (ABNB) forecast third-quarter revenue below estimates on Tuesday and warned of shorter booking windows, suggesting travelers were waiting until the last minute to book due to economic uncertainty, sending its shares down 15% before the bell on Wednesday.
“The slowdown guided for the third-quarter echoes what others have noted in the travel industry,” said Dan Wasiolek, Morningstar equity analyst. “Airbnb is not immune to a travel demand slowdown, but it remains a well-positioned brand for the long term.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/airbnb-forecasts-dour-third-quarter-201152052.html
“Airbnb is not immune to a travel demand slowdown, but it remains a well-positioned brand for the long term.”
Dan doesn’t want to understand how shlonged AirBnB “investors” are because his paycheck depends on his not understanding it. We are headed into a full-blown depression, and STRs will be an early casualty when people start tightening their belts.
“sending its shares down 15%”
15% is that a lot?
Floodwaters in some of the hardest hit communities in Sarasota have yet to recede following Hurricane Debby.
Several residents hoping to get into their homes and start salvaging their belongings and valuables were not able to do so Tuesday.
Along Alta Vista Street, some homes remain several feet underwater. It’s the same story for many residents living close to the Phillippi Creek.
The Schrock family got their first look inside their home Tuesday. They own two properties on one of the hardest hit streets. In addition to damage to their homes, the family lost all three of their vehicles to the floodwaters.
“I’m just trying to salvage what I can,” Norman Schrock said. “We’ve got a few things that were hung up high that I could salvage, otherwise everything is wet and I can’t really do anything with it.”
Norman Schrock said both homes sustained between four and five feet of flood damage and there’s still about a foot of water inside.
Neighbor John Grove kayaked throughout the neighborhood on Tuesday.
“With a lot of the houses, you are going to have to gut everything,” Grove said. “You can smell the gasoline or kerosene in the water and then the sewage was coming up, there is trash. It is terrible.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/it-is-terrible-sarasota-families-impacted-by-hurricane-debby-wait-for-flooding-to-recede/ar-AA1olWGB
From the outside and inside of Loranna Hochstetler’s home, a water line remains.
“The doors, all my interior doors look like this,” she said.
The line remains an unwanted reminder of what Debby left behind.
Water remains in her dryer, freezer and pots and pans.
“This is devastating. It’s like my brain can’t wrap its mind around what all this means,” she said.
“There are quite a few people that we have evacuated and their houses are underwater and destroyed,” said Officer Gray Davis.
John Wagner is one of them.
“More and more water that kept coming and it just ruined everything, everything is gone,” said Wagner.
With only a duffle bag and a bike, Wagner peddled out from the neighborhood he once called home.
“I have to start from zero. I have no home now. I have no possessions, I have no tools. Just the shirt and pants I have on. That’s all I have,” he said.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sarasota-residents-cleaning-up-following-historic-flood-from-debby-i-have-to-start-at-zero/ar-AA1olPyW
It’s been more than two years since the former head of the Anaheim Chamber of Commerce pleaded guilty to federal charges for his role in the corruption scandal that erupted in Anaheim two years ago.
Todd Ament, who in 2022 admitted to wire fraud, lying to a mortgage lender, lying on his tax returns and other crimes, faces a possible sentence of 30 years or more in prison, according to the US Department of Justice. But, for now, he remains free on bail.
In a federal complaint filed in 2022, prosecutors identified Ament as one of the ringleaders of a “cabal” of elected officials, political consultants and business leaders who worked behind the scenes to influence Anaheim politics. Prosecutors from the U.S. Attorney’s Office said Ament laundered money meant for the Chamber of Commerce to his coffers. Prosecutors said he would use that money later to defraud a mortgage lender to buy a home in Big Bear.
He is also accused of orchestrating meetings between power brokers to discuss public matters in private.
Former Anaheim mayor Harry Sidhu also pleaded guilty to charges stemming from the corruption scandal, specifically related to the $320 million sale of Angels stadium. Like Ament, he has yet to be sentenced.
Some politicians and residents are wondering the reasons for the delay.
Former federal prosecutors, who are not tied to Ament’s case, told LAist there are likely several reasons for the delay: The investigation is still ongoing and prosecutors are hoping to leverage Ament to charge other possible defendants.
Experts said sentencing can be delayed if Ament is cooperating with prosecutors.
Larry Rosenthal, former federal prosecutor and professor of law at Chapman University, said Ament’s plea agreement has a cooperation provision built in. That means if he cooperates with prosecutors, answering questions, providing documents and even wearing a wire if they require it, he could have his sentence reduced.
“My practice when I was a prosecutor is that I wanted individuals who I expected to testify in future cases not to be sentenced, so that the sentencing would remain hanging over them,” Rosenthal said.
Laurie Levenson, a law professor at Loyola Law School and a former federal prosecutor, said it’s not surprising that Ament’s sentencing is taking long. If he is cooperating with prosecutors, the authorities will use him “to look at other possible defendants, and they want to make sure they get the full extent of his information before he’s sentenced.”
She said sentencing could take “months and even years” because prosecutors will go back and forth to confirm information with Ament, and “if the cooperation involves him testifying against others, then you have to build in the time for those charges as well as trials.”
Because multiple parties including Ament and former Mayor Harry Sidhu are involved, Levenson said, prosecutors will leverage them to further the investigation.
“He’s (Ament) probably the tip of the iceberg,” she said. “It involved people who are of high political power, and for that reason, not only do they (prosecutors) have to be careful how they do the investigation, but they must make sure that they get to the heart of it, who is really benefiting from it, and who’s calling the shots.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/anaheim-chambers-ceo-pleaded-guilty-to-federal-charges-2-years-ago-why-hasnt-he-been-sentenced/ar-AA1ok6EL
As a leader of a criminal syndicate, Boliang Liu became rich enough to buy luxury items and keep $913,000 cash in his house.
Liu may have thought he could avoid detection from police, but he could not escape being “lectured” by his father.
Fulai Liu did not think it was wise his son — who declared no taxable income for the year — had traded in an SUV and forked out a further $107,000 to purchase a Porsche 911 Carrera.
“Is that low profile?” Fulai asked in a message on September 7, 2021.
“I deserve a little reward, don’t I?” Liu replied.
“Otherwise what’s it for, day in and day out here?”
Their cover was blown a month later when Liu and two co-accused, Tao Zhou and Wei Wang, were arrested in a major sting coordinated by Victoria Police, the Australian Crime Intelligence Commission and AUSTRAC.
The group were charged over their involvement in a syndicate that laundered tens of millions of dollars using cryptocurrency, foreign bank accounts and ATMs across Melbourne’s east.
When investigators raided the Burwood home where Liu lived, they seized shopping bags filled with money, cash counting machines and numerous credit cards in other people’s names.
Officers also seized luxury watches, a Gucci bag, three framed pictures of boxer Mike Tyson, the Porsche, and two four-wheel drives.
Liu and Zhou initially denied any involvement in criminal activity, telling police they were high-stakes poker players.
On Tuesday, Liu and Zhou were sentenced in the County Court of Victoria after pleading guilty to dealing with proceeds of crime.
Judge Michael Cahill jailed Liu, 37, for five-and-a-half years, while Zhou, 41, was sentenced to three-and-a-half years.
According to court documents, a combined $63 million was laundered by Liu and Zhou in 2020 and 2021.
“The sums you both dealt with are eye-watering,” Judge Cahill said.
“Neither of you kept business records of transactions, and the volume of cash you dealt — worth millions of dollars — was grossly disproportionate to your legitimate income.”
Prosecutors said Liu, Zhou and Wang took commissions from “customers” by taking their money and transferring it into other bank and cryptocurrency accounts controlled by the syndicate.
The syndicate disguised their customers’ involvement by holding the money in dormant bank accounts, which were purchased from people who no longer lived in Australia.
Judge Cahill said the men did not know the source of the money, but appeared “indifferent” to whether they were helping criminals.
Police recorded Liu telling his father, “We don’t worry where the shit is coming from. I never asked … I don’t think it’s important”.
The judge said the group was able to avoid detection from the banks because individual transactions never exceeded $10,000.
The group was discovered by police when Liu spoke with an undercover officer and boasted that he could convert $1 million cash into Bitcoin.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-08-07/men-jailed-over-eye-watering-money-laundering-scheme/104195074
Love him or hate him, Trump calls out the Democrats on their coup against Biden.
https://x.com/saras76/status/1820918463336001748
Dems and undecided voters do not give a whit about their stolen primary vote and palace coup stuff. All they care about is
1. Thank god we got rid of the old guy
2. JD Vance is a weirdo who humped a couch
3. I’m be so proud to vote for the first black woman President.
T will do better to play up the bad-a@@ery with the young men. Save the policy for the attack ads.
#2: WTF?!?!
#3: She ain’t black.
Let the epic Trump-Vance trolling of the epically incompetent Kamala Harris & Tampon Timmy begin!
https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1821256002831863826
This kind of stuff is guaranteed to rattle her. And didja notice that those poor reporters assigned to Harris shouted a couple questions at Vance, and Vance turned back to answer. Donny made a good choice.
[side question — how was Vance allowed to get so close to Air Force Two? I guess he has Senate privilege?]
A couple people are saying that Kamala was actually on the plane, but I don’t know for sure. If she was there, then she would definitely be rattled.
I bet she won’t pull that “Say it to my face” line again.
At the risk of sounding like a fangirl: Not only was Kamala (possibly) watching this, but so is the foreign press. Vance is T’s chosen successor to the Presidency, and the high-testosterone stunts like this are sure to be a hit with world leaders.
Vance mentions a basement campaign. IMO worked for Biden because were in the deep throes of the pandemic, and also because by then, Biden had been in Washington for a very long time and everyone knew him already. There is no excuse now.
Plus the times were good and naive voters didn’t believe that the Dems could scuttle the economy so quickly.
naive voters didn’t believe that the Dems could scuttle the economy so quickly.
Well, I still see and hear from some educated naive voters, some of whom, thought Kamala was the dumbest person ever, but will still be voting for her. I am not so sure this hide tactic won’t win again.
The fools who rushed in to BTFD in cryptos are getting their heads handed to them.
https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
It’s not just real estate and spending – another pillar of China’s economy looks like it is heading for trouble, too.
China’s July exports grew 7%, slower than expected, while import growth outperformed expectations.
China is facing other economic woes, including weaker consumer spending and a real-estate slump.
Businesses eyeing a Trump presidency could explain a surge in US imports, wrote Goldman analysts.
In addition to battling a slowing economy, China is now feeling the sting of slowing global demand for its goods.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/ar-AA1onwyA
The country’s July exports grew 7% from the same period last year, falling short of an expected 9.7% increase and its slowest expansion pace in three months, Reuters reported. The figures for July also fell below China’s explosive 8.6% export growth in June, which was the fastest in 15 months.
Meanwhile, China’s imports in July surged 7.2% year-over-year, significantly higher than the expected 3.2%. Imports from the US increased 24% from last year, CNBC reported.
The slowdown in China’s exports comes amid sluggish domestic demand and slower-than-expected economic growth, despite consumers’ higher disposable incomes.
In the first quarter of 2024, China’s economy showed signs of slowing when it grew by 4.7% year-over-year, falling short of the 5.1% expected. The slowdown was driven by weaker consumer demand and declining retail sales from a more frugal spending attitude, BI reported in July.
China’s growth numbers were also dragged down by its real-estate crisis, which saw home sale prices fall by 31% across cities in March.
While China’s net exports reached a record $99 billion in June, Nomura economists forecast that “China’s economy will be unable to sustain a strong recovery through depending only on exports,” they wrote in a note.
The decline in export numbers from June to July might signal slowing external demand for Chinese goods, Xing Zhaopeng, senior China strategist at Australia & New Zealand Banking Group, told Bloomberg. This exacerbates China’s growing list of economic concerns, such as geopolitical headwinds and a declining birth rate.
The surges in June’s exports and July’s US imports could also be attributed to “possible rush shipments ahead of potential tariff increases if former US President Trump were to be re-elected,” Goldman Sachs wrote in a Tuesday note.
The spike in July’s import numbers is a bright spot for China, as it could suggest signs of revival for China’s faltering domestic demand.
[A snip from todays thread …]
“‘Walking downtown is embarrassing. The drug addiction and mental health crises are glaringly apparent,’ Investment Manager Jeffery Judson-Baker, the wrote in an open letter. ‘Stepping off the light rail near my home in Pioneer Square or in Westlake Center, I see drug addicts folded in half and manic episodes untreated. Commuters step over needles, trash, and human waste. Many favorite restaurants and shops remain boarded up. Once vibrant, downtown Seattle now can feel at times like a wasteland.’”
[An article from September 30, 2016]
Seattle Welcomes Drug Users!
https://www.clearbrookinc.com/news/seattle-welcomes-drug-users/
In a place where drugs like marijuana are becoming legalized for recreational use, other drugs are becoming somewhat accepted as well. A clinic in Seattle, Washington is attempting to open a safe-use location, welcoming heroin and cocaine users alike. This clinic is the first of its kind in our country in an attempt to combat overdosing.
Each site will have staff on-hand to monitor drug users as well as have the ability to intervene if problems occur including overdosing, seizure, withdrawals, or other medical problems. Users will be able to bring in drugs from off the street and begin using under supervision.
A local group in Seattle hopes that small safe-sites will help reduce the amount of litter from needles and caps used for drugs such as heroin. They are also attempting to reduce the amount of HIV and other diseases that are spread from intravenous drug use. Most importantly these sites are to help prevent overdose death rates by monitoring the drug users dosages.
Drugs like Naloxone, which cancels the effects of opioids and other drugs by filling the receptors before the endorphins can enter will be on-site. This medicine evacuates the opiate of choice from the drug user’s system, which could potentially save the lives of those overdosing.
While many are opposing the idea in fear that they are just allowing the users to continue their addiction, some are also in favor in hopes that it will lead to their recovery, ensuring they live to see the next day. More information could help persuade those against the site.
“I was a narcotics detective, so I’m still trying to wrap my head around this,” John Urquhart, Sheriff of Kings County had stated, finishing by saying, “But the more I hear, the more open I am to the possibility.” With studies being done and more information being gathered, organizers of the safe-site are hoping more supporters will open up to the idea.
Dan Satterberg, Prosecutor for King County, is also keeping an open mind to safe-sites after speaking with Vancouver police officers who credited Insite, a Canadian safe-site that has stopped overdoses from becoming fatal. He is however worried that these sites could create a concentration of drug dealers and drug users, which could easily and quickly become a significant problem.
Jesse Perrin, an officer on the Capitol Hill Community Council has said that they would be on board with welcoming a safe-site on Capitol Hill. Their plan is to involve every neighborhood council in Seattle to get a collective voice on the implementation of a safe-site. “We hear about used needles in parks, and in alleys, so this would increase the health and wellbeing of people using and not using.”
The idea arose when Liz Evans, founder of Insite, a 13-year-old safe injection site in Vancouver, B.C., visited and spoke to the Seattle City Council’s public-health committee. Insite has never had any overdose deaths on site, and have shown some results in caring for drug users.
Numerous peer-reviewers have looked into Insite and found that they are reducing the number of fatal overdoses, disease transmission, and also assisting some people into entering addiction treatments. “There have been overdoses, but nobody has died, and that’s a big deal,” Caleb Banta-Green, a researcher with UW’s Alcohol and Drug Abuse Institute claimed.
The People’s Harm Reduction Alliance(PHRA), which has been running a clean needle exchange for over two decades, is the major group foundering the safe-use sites. Their director, Shilo Murphy said the idea has been in talks for a long time. When asked about the sites, Murphy explained, “[We] need to move ahead as fast as we can because this is a crisis, people are dying.”
For over two years Murphy and his group had been planning a site, which was during Mayor Mike McGinn’s attempt to end the “war on drugs”. “This was the time to strike, and we went to work!” Murphy said, finishing with, “This isn’t a matter of if — this is a matter of when.”
Shiloh and his group helped raise nearly $20,000, which they are using to look for a vacancy for a starter site. A small storefront could allow room for between four to eight people to use safely, along with two volunteers and nurses. In 2014, over 150 deaths were from a heroin overdose in King County alone, which is up from 100 deaths in 2013, and only 49 deaths in 2009.
Officials in favor of the safe-sites agreed together that it would be best to have multiple small sites instead of a major safe-site. This would prevent concentrations of drug users and dealers from going to one area of the city. Supporters believe it may cause a bigger hole in the community’s pocket, but the safety aspect of this is priority.
Although we understand why lawmakers are considering these sites in Seattle, we wonder if it is just another desperate attempt to fight against addiction. As the drug epidemic continues to rise, politicians are scrambling to come up with a outcomes. Yes, these drug users are being monitored by medical staff with Narcan, but will that be enough to combat addiction? These safe-sites are giving the addict further permission to use. Instead of investing time and resources into facilities such as these, politicians need to turn their attention to better prevention and intervention methods, as well as make resources for treatment more readily available. Although safe-sites are preventing overdose, they are not addressing the disease of addiction. While these sites may be viewed as beneficial in the short-term, those who are opposed realize that these centers are just prolonging the outcome of addiction…Death.
Contact Clearbrook
If you or someone you love is struggling with chemical dependency or alcoholism, know that we are here to help. Here at Clearbrook Treatment Centers, we have found a better way of living. For over 40 years, we have offered effective treatment to those in need. Through a medical detox, customized treatment programs, and aftercare planning, we have had the privilege of watching addicts and alcoholics get their lives back. Let us show you. Contact us today and get on the road to recovery.
Muh “progressive” and “compassionate” drug laws.
The whole idea behind legalizing weed was that it would get rid of drug dealers. What happened instead is that the legal stuff sales are dropping off as the potheads are going back to dealers, who are cheaper because they don’t pay any taxes.
What happened instead is that the legal stuff sales are dropping off as the potheads are going back to dealers, who are cheaper because they don’t pay any taxes.
Lol do you know anyone who actually smokes pot?
A few people. Not close to them, but yeah, I do know some. It’s more common than you might think,
‘We don’t have flood insurance,’ he said. ‘We weren’t required to have flood insurance. So this is families out of their house,’ he said. ‘Gone, everything is gone.’ It’s a devastating story that’s become a reality for so many families, as people like Joe Scotti accessed their home by boat only to find out almost everything they own is ruined. ‘I lost everything, and I’m homeless,’ Scotti said. ‘Now, I’m in big trouble. I don’t have any vehicles to work,’ he said. ‘I got no place to stay’
Matt, Joe, it is still way cheaper than renting.
Actually I’m rather curious. What happens to these people? The news shows them saying “I don’t have anything and I have no place to go,” but the news story just stops there. Do they get taken in by family? Does some kind of social services put them in a shelter? Do they wander the streets homeless?
‘downtown Seattle home prices have taken a nosedive, now cheaper than the citywide average for the first time in nearly a decade’
How the mighty have fallen. This used to be a mania super story of new paradigm ultra lux urban living micro density utopia with glamorous coffee and dining that would make everybody rich who bought in. Remember the Seattle PI? They covered it well.
‘The distress is manifesting itself in a number of ways, from banks selling off loans they don’t want to carry on their books, to forced sales, to owners searching out rescue capital to fill the gaps. ‘There is a very hidden, significantly growing challenge,’ Acumen Cos. Investment Committee Chair AZ Abiud said. ‘It’s very hidden, you’re not seeing it. Lenders want to control it, want to control a narrative, so it doesn’t create panic. We are chasing every pre-foreclosure that’s coming out,’ Abiud said, ‘We have a list of them, hundreds of them, on a regular basis’
It’s a sh$tshow AZ. This is a really good Bisnow article BTW.
‘[The grants] were $55,000 in total, including a stamp duty discount,’ Mr Scott said. ‘That was great at the time, it looked really good, there was no indication from Inspired that it would take them three-and-a-half years to build a house under those conditions. Whatever benefit I would have received from that $55,000 is long gone, I just bought myself a nightmare with that money’
They hooked you with a guberment teaser con Andy, and you got schlonged. Get a good nights sleep tonight!
‘A slew of luxury residential units are hitting the market as rich local families have been caught up by a debt crunch…‘The distress in Hong Kong’s property market is taking a toll on everyone…We are certainly going through a challenging time’
They should have got out when the chicoms took over Ray. The writing was on the wall.
Your Unit Is Just Not That Special Anymore (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)
Team Sessa Real Estate
12 minutes ago TORONTO
In this episode we take a look at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, York Region & Peel Region for week ending July 31, 2024. We also discuss why buyer’s now are able to take a much more logical approach to purchasing condo’s. The increase in listings, meaning increase in choice means one particular unit is just not that special anymore.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3LIDV7mMuwk
13 minutes.
At 13 minutes, 1.5% of available condos sold downtown in a week.
Is now a good time to buy Treasurys?
The Treasury market scandal hiding in plain sight
Experts warn manipulation could risk Treasurys’ credibility as a benchmark asset
By Vivien Lou Chen
Aug. 6, 2024 9:26 am ET
There’s a scandal hiding in the open, one that threatens the integrity of global financial markets if left unchecked, experts say. Though it’s not capturing headlines, the manipulation of prices by traders in the $27 trillion U.S. Treasury market may be more pervasive than the U.K. Libor episode that rocked the banking world more than a decade ago.
U.S. regulators and financial institutions have tried to get their arms around the problem for years. Now, some experts are warning about a lack of meaningful progress in thwarting what’s described as widespread, commonplace misbehavior. The message comes at a pivotal moment. Technological advances over recent years have improved financial institutions’ ability to monitor manipulative activity, and also increased the pace of trading abuses.
Even as regulators place a higher priority on acting, they’re still trying to contain the problem. No fewer than five groups of regulators and one law-enforcement agency have attempted to crack down on activity that creates a false impression of supply and demand inside the world’s largest and most liquid government-securities market. Yet no one entity has oversight over the entire U.S. government-debt market — creating a fractured response, despite regulators taking enforcement actions and handing out millions of dollars in fines.
Most of the top 5 U.S. banks have been ensnared in at least one case involving Treasury debt market manipulation. What makes it so difficult to monitor these situations is that they tend to take place across multiple platforms and a large number of maturities — as well as in various forms such as cash, futures, options, and swaps. Any lack of integrity in the Treasury market has the potential to jeopardize the role of U.S. government debt as the benchmark upon which almost every other financial asset is priced, though the extent to which this might lead to market chaos is a matter of debate.
“Traders are still finding ways to manipulate prices and orders, while financial institutions have found themselves in a position where they are unable to detect this. There is an enormous hole around the surveillance capabilities of these institutions,” said Mike Coats, the London-based chief technology officer for TradingHub, which analyzes more than 135 million trades a day in over 45 different countries.
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-treasury-market-scandal-hiding-in-plain-sight-f0744f29
Does bear steepening of the Treasury yield curve fortell further market carnage?
Financial Times
4 hours ago
Jaren Kerr in New York
US Treasury yield curve close to exiting prolonged inversion
Moves in the Treasury market brought a closely watched recession indicator close to undoing itself as traders prepare for the Federal Reserve to loosen US monetary policy.
The 10-year Treasury note sold off, sending yields higher on Wednesday after an auction for the debt instrument indicated weak demand.
Bond prices fell across most maturities on the day, though the two-year note was an exception.
The so-called yield curve tracks the difference between two- and 10-year Treasury yields, and for the past two years has been in “inversion” territory, meaning short-term rates exceed longer-term ones.
Wednesday’s market moves the yield curve to less than 0.02 percentage points from exiting inversion territory.
…
I think there are many “future market carnage” indicators flashing.
The one I pay most attention to is the “Klog” market crash indicator.
Currently “Klog” indicator pointing down…..
I
I
\ /
\/
MoneyWatch
What the Federal Reserve is likely to do after stock selloff
moneywatch
By Aimee Picchi
Edited By Alain Sherter
Updated on: August 6, 2024 / 6:07 PM EDT / CBS News
Renewed concerns about the U.S. economy could have a major impact on Americans that go well beyond this week’s free fall in stocks.
Experts say the recent slide in financial markets, triggered by mounting evidence that the economy is bogging down, raises the odds that the Federal Reserve will aggressively ease monetary policy starting next month in a bid to avert a severe downturn. Wall Street analysts now forecast a series of interest rate cuts starting in September, and continuing into 2025.
Prior to the rout, economists polled by financial data firm FactSet had penciled in a rate cut at the Fed’s September 18 meeting, predicting the central bank would trim borrowing costs by just 0.25 percentage points. But that conviction has shifted, and economists overwhelmingly predict that the Fed will trim rates by double the prior forecast, or 0.5 percentage points, FactSet data shows.
…
https://www.cbsnews.com/amp/news/interest-rates-federal-reserve-september-meeting-stocks/