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We Lost The Market And Then We Were Chasing It Down

A report from the Coeur d’Alene Press. “Jennifer Smock, co-owner, managing broker with Windermere/Coeur d’Alene Real Estate, said the real estate climate currently is interesting. She said values are holding stable. On most days, they see an equal number of new listings entering the market as they do price reductions on homes already on the market. ‘This indicates a summer slowdown in preparation for the upcoming fall season,’ Smock wrote. In Shoshone County, the median single-family home price in July was $289,000, a 5.4% decrease. The number of homes sold was 89, down 1.1% from July 2023, while current active residential listings totaled 104 as of Aug. 5, a 34% increase from 78 listings a year ago. One recent study found that Idaho had the second-highest rate of population relocation of all U.S. states. Colorado ranked first with 5% of the population moving states in 2022.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “With a 68% increase in available inventory from July of last year, the close-price-to-list-price ratio is the lowest it’s been since July 2020. Sellers with properties listed for more than $2 million face intense competition, with 16.5 months of inventory for attached homes and 7 months for detached homes. The median number of days on the market jumped by 50% over June to 15 days. ‘For buyers, this is great news,’ said Colleen Covell, a market trends committee member and realtor at Mile Hi Modern.”

Mansion Global on Colorado. “A mansion in an affluent Denver suburb asking nearly $17 million found a buyer nearly as soon as it hit the market, bucking the general sluggishness of the metro area’s high-end housing market. Current and former residents of the neighborhood include professional athletes Nikola Jokić of the NBA’s Denver Nuggets, former NHL player and current executive Joe Sakic, and football greats John Elway, Peyton Manning, Mike Shanahan and Russell Wilson, whose $25 million closing price in April 2022 is still the most paid for a home in the Denver area, despite selling at a $3.5 million loss.”

NBC Miami in Florida. “A note taped to the bulletin board in the hallway of a Kendall condominium complex alerted residents that water will be shut off because payment has not been received. According to condo owner Hilda Conley, it wouldn’t be the first time. Conley and other owners pay their monthly dues to the association that is responsible for paying the water bill. According to a woman who identified herself over the phone as Yesenia Llombart, the CEO of YCL Property Management, the condo is at a point where it will need to have a special assessment to pay the bills. ‘They haven’t raised their dues in like 15 years, so now they’re behind everyone,’ Llombart said. ‘They make barely enough to pay their insurance on a monthly basis… They don’t have enough to pay [the water bill], and the water no longer wants to take installments.’ Conley said she feels ‘frustrated, disillusioned and generally just pissed off.’ She fears she could eventually lose her home.”

Fox 13 Tampa Bay in Florida. “It still took a boat for Pastor Andy Ard and his wife to reach their home in Sarasota County’s Laurel Meadows neighborhood. ‘This is economically devastating for us. We don’t have the money, or flood insurance. For me, I feel like that’s beyond our neighborhood responsibility. We are paying the price for whether it’s development or not enough drainage because of the development. I’m hoping and praying that they see this and they will investigate it and take responsibility for it,’ said Ard.”

Fox 4 Now in Florida. “When Cape Coral Community Correspondent Bella Line heard about one neighborhood that is still seeing flooding… days later… she went to go check out for herself. ‘This happens just about every time that we have a torrential downpour,’ said Pete Rosado, a resident on SW 12th Terrace. Homeowners say money is on their mind. ‘I have never had flood insurance. It’s never been required. Lucked out in that sense. It never goes up to the homes, but this is an anomaly here for it last this long,’ said Rosado. ‘My house is paid off, so I canceled my insurance because insurance is too high I can’t afford it. So I just kind of take my chances,’ said Hung Nguyen, a homeowner on SW 12th Terrace.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “It’s not like we needed more stress after Hurricane Beryl, but Houston is a screaming example of how bad things happen in threes. During the 2021 winter storm, my then-insurance company offered me $80 after a pipe burst through a kitchen ceiling. I contested, and it took three years to settle. My insurance company is also pulling out of Harris County this month. When I called to inquire about the reason, I was told by a customer service rep that there had been too many claims in the area. Lloyd Gite, owner of the Gite Gallery, switched insurance companies for his gallery three weeks before Hurricane Beryl struck. He filed for property damages and still has not heard from the company. The insurance policy for his home, which was insured by the same company that carries my home insurance, also was not renewed. ‘You pay your premiums for 10 years, never have a claim, and then they drop you,’ Gite said. ‘How can they do this? It’s stressful to find another company to insure you when you live in Houston. You can be fed up with this, but what can you do?'”

“‘Companies are reducing their risk along the coasts, and they have been doing this for decades,’ said Rich Johnson, a spokesperson with the Insurance Council of Texas. ‘We’re not California, where companies are leaving the state.'”

The San Francisco Chronicle in California. “In a February poll commissioned by the Chronicle, just 6% of voters said the quality of life in the city was ‘excellent,’ while 33% found it ‘just adequate’ and 27% said it was ‘poor.’ A poll conducted in late July and early August found that the percentage of respondents who said the quality of life in the city is excellent nearly doubled to 11%. While 11% may still be considered abysmal — not exactly a tale of doom loops to hula hoops — some voters interviewed after the poll was published Thursday said they had become somewhat more optimistic.”

“Lower Nob Hill resident Julia Mason also participated in the Chronicle poll. She’s lived in the city off and on since 1990 and said street conditions deteriorated early in the pandemic and have not improved. She called Breed’s recent ‘tough on crime’ rhetoric ‘too little, too late.’ ‘Last night, I had to go outside at 9 o’clock at night — my car was parked on my block — and there’s a guy right in front of my building with crap spread all over the place and a big dog off leash headed straight for me,’ she said. ‘Today, there was a crazy guy across the street flailing his arms and yelling and screaming.’ She said living in San Francisco the past few years has made her more politically conservative. ‘The city has gone so far left in my opinion. I’m middle of the road,’ Mason said. ‘The giving of the tents, the giving of the foil, the giving of the drug paraphernalia. The city is giving, giving, giving, and nothing is asked for in return.'”

“Parker Day, a technology consultant who lives in Lower Polk, participated in the poll. Day said he doesn’t support Mayor London Breed’s intensified homeless encampment sweeps, saying that ‘just throwing people’s stuff in dumpsters and telling them to leave isn’t a long-term solution.’ He worries about ‘conservative political rhetoric’ rising in San Francisco. The city, he said, is ‘obviously too expensive, has too many vacant storefronts and a humanitarian crisis on the streets.'”

From LAist in California. “A homeless services provider for Los Angeles’ Inside Safe motel shelter program is under investigation on fraud allegations, after officials determined that it failed to provide nutritious meals to residents despite being paid a $110 per person daily fee to provide those and other services. The City Controller’s Office said in a July 26 news release that the unnamed provider’s on-site ‘food inventory consisted almost entirely of instant ramen noodles.’ ‘The small remaining portion of other food inventory consisted only of instant oatmeal, canned soup, canned corn, and canned refried beans,’ said the release from the office of City Controller Kenneth Mejia. ‘Taxpayer money goes heavily into homeless services in our city,’ Mejia said in the release, citing a current homelessness budget of nearly $1 billion. ‘Angelenos should be able to reasonably expect their investment to return decent meals for our unhoused neighbors — not instant ramen for almost every meal.'”

From CalMatters. “California put hundreds of millions of homelessness dollars at risk because of its ‘disorganized’ and ‘chaotic’ anti-fraud policies, according to a critical federal audit. The audit analyzed California’s Department of Housing and Community Development, which oversees the state’s homelessness programs. With the arrival of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, the federal government poured $4 billion into its Emergency Solutions Grant program, which was intended to help people struggling with homelessness. California’s share of that pot was $319.5 million — a 2,505% increase from its typical annual allotment. With that huge influx of money also came an increased risk that bad actors would attempt to use those funds for nefarious purposes.”

“The newer federal audit seems to underscore a broader lack of accountability in the homelessness sector, said Sen. Dave Cortese, a Democrat from Santa Clara County. ‘The biggest reason of all that it’s frustrating is these are public sector dollars, they’re tax payer dollars,’” Cortese said. ‘It’s disrespectful to the taxpayers to say, ‘Gee, we don’t really know what happened here to your money.'”

The Mendocino County Observer. “We know that in just the past six years, state government has spent about $24 billion aimed at trying to get a handle on California’s worst-in-the-nation homeless crisis. Amazingly, local governments and private charities have spent additional countless billions more. Despite those immense expenditures, the number of un-housed Californians has continued to increase to more than 181,000 in the latest federal census. California accounts for 28% of all people experiencing homelessness in the country, and 49% of all unsheltered people in the U.S. Shockingly, the State Auditor’s Office released a report in April that found it’s impossible to figure out if California’s largest homeless programs are working because there’s almost no relevant data to be found. The same was the case with city and county.”

“Of course, most folks familiar with the failed system here in Mendocino County know that one of the major failures is that providers of homeless services are not held accountable by local government officials. Here’s what one homeless/mental health advocate, Mazie Malone, of Ukiah, had to say, ‘Hi Jim, in regard to the [Supreme Court] ban on sleeping outside … people sleep outside of our shelter and across the street from it all the time, since that ruling a few weeks ago. I have not seen any arrests for camping out on the streets. Maybe they all have moved beyond the city limits? Dropping the ball on purpose? Or default because no one really gives a s***? Unbelievable the lack of oversight and accountability.'”

“So right off the bat Maizie demonstrates she has keen and spot-on insights into this problematical monstrosity. The people responsible for tackling the homeless crisis have truly dropped the ball and obviously don’t give a s***. Why should they and who are they? They’ve come to be called the Homeless-Mental Health Industrial Complex, an ever-growing collection of so-called Private-Public Partnerships that specialize in administering homeless programs across the nation and right here in this county. These outfits all share one unique characteristic: They continue to reap massive taxpayer monies even though they are held to little, if any, performance standards. Thus explaining runaway homelessness, especially here in California where it is officially and certifiably the worst by prodigious margins.”

The New York Post. “City Comptroller Brad Lander’s damning audit of the Adams administration’s contracts with DocGo suggests the city should recover over $11 million of nearly $14 million paid last year to the controversial migrant-services provider — but why did Lander wait so long to blare the news? City Hall’s emergency no-bid $432 million DocGo contract wound up spending millions for ‘shelter’ and services that went unused, and with authorizations that went undocumented. The outrages include charging the city $569,500 to rent out the Crowne Plaza JFK Hotel in Queens for 10 nights, though not a single room was used over that period; in all, taxpayers paid $1.7 million for nearly 10,000 vacant room-nights, earning DocGo $408,680 in commissions in just this two-month period. And roughly $800,000 in seemingly unauthorized expenses.”

“The Adams team notes that this was a response to an overwhelming and unprecedented influx of ‘asylum-seekers’ waved in by the Biden-Harris administration — with the city under legal obligation to provide shelter no matter how many showed up on its doorstep. And it says it cleaned up its act months ago, when Lander’s team first flagged these issues. Yet it still hasn’t explained why it’s working with DocGo (formally Rapid Reliable Testing NY LLC, since it started off doing entirely different work during COVID) on this stuff in the first place, nor why it’s running the contracts through the Department of Housing Preservation and Development, rather than homeless agencies with long experience on these issues.”

“Above all, New York should step beyond politics to rethink the entire migrant-shelter concept: It’s not only burned billions, but created perverse incentives for even more people to illegally cross the border and come here. That’s a far larger scandal in its own right.”

Global News in Canada. “The leaders of Ontario’s largest cities are calling on the provincial government to appoint a cabinet minister to manage a provincewide response to a growing trend of homelessness and a number of encampments they say have reached crisis levels. Launching a new campaign at Queen’s Park on Thursday, Ontario’s Big City Mayors said local governments were at a breaking point trying to tackle homelessness, opioid addiction and a series of tent encampments that have appeared and stayed in the heart of the province’s towns and cities. ‘What is happening on our streets across this province is an unprecedented humanitarian crisis,’ said Marianne Meed Ward, Burlington mayor and chair of Ontario’s Big City Mayors. ‘There have been increases in funding — but it is not how we can solve this crisis — a little bit of money here and there and no municipality knows if they’re going to get it. More people will die on our streets, unnecessarily,’ she said. ‘People won’t feel safe going to our parks, they won’t feel safe going to our downtown business areas. Businesses will close.'”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “2522 Palmerston, West Vancouver, B.C. Asking price: $3,598,000 (September, 2023); $3,598,000, $3,198,000 (November, 2023); $3,450,000, $3,298,000, $3,150,000, $2,999,000 (May, 2024). Selling price: $2,675,000 (June 20). Days on the market: Nine months. The 2,734-square-foot house sits on a large lot nearly a quarter acre, with spectacular views of the ocean, on a hill in the popular Dundarave neighbourhood. The house, built in 1948, has dated renovations and needs work. Listing agent Michelle Vaughan says the market had changed ‘dramatically” soon after her clients listed their house in September. The property was also difficult to show because it was tenanted. They relisted several times, dropping the price according to comparables in the neighbourhood. Once re-listed at $2.999-million, they received a couple of offers and, after some deliberation, they finally accepted one of them. The deal completed July 8.”

“Ms. Vaughan said their timing was unfortunate, so her clients chose not to hold off any longer and sell for less than they’d hoped, but with a short closing period. ‘We lost the market and then we were chasing it down,’ Ms. Vaughan says. ‘It was one of those situations. When you see the market dropping, it’s scary. You had to get ahead of it, which is why they took this offer … they had other stuff they wanted to put money into. It worked for them.'”

From Z Network. “António Melo has lived all his seventy-one years in Lisbon’s Alfama neighborhood. But after the owner sold the building to a tourist accommodation company, they refused to renew his contract. His story has become common among the Portuguese capital’s 546,000 residents, who receive thirty to forty thousand tourists a day. Elderly residents have been forced out of neighborhoods they’ve spent their entire lives in. Compared to other major European cities, the rise in living costs has been relatively recent and rapid. Portuguese wages, however, are the lowest in Western Europe — and have lost all relation to these costs.”

“The predicament for homeseekers in Lisbon is nightmarish. But some residents are pushing back — and are mobilizing to force authorities into a referendum that could halt the displacement of housing by Airbnb and its ilk. City hall promoted Brand Lisbon until it topped several rankings — and became the European hotspot to visit if you were a right-thinking tourist, digital nomad, or start-upper. A boatload of celebrities also moved in. Local property owners and foreign investors took notice. ‘With the boom of Lisbon and the change in its self-perception,’ says Simone Tulumello of the University of Lisbon, ‘people clicked that: ‘Alright, now rent is about making lots of money.’”

“Maria — who has lived in the Chiado neighborhood for seventy-eight years — feels that her options using local businesses have dwindled. ‘I’m ashamed to go into those places because I don’t even know what to order,’ she says of the brunch cafés that have replaced old neighborhood shops. ‘Life is disappearing,’ Agustín Cocola-Gant, a geographer at the University of Lisbon, explains. ‘When I was interviewing short-term real estate investors, their message to locals was: ‘Move from the city center. This is a future opportunity for us, not a residential place anymore. Leave us alone and assume that you can’t live here.’”

From 9 News. “South Australian home builder Adelaide Designer Homes has entered liquidation, leaving 20 houses unfinished. The company’s collapse has left more than 80 creditors unsure if they will recoup their losses. ‘We wrote to homeowners yesterday and basically handed back the sites, telling them the company can’t continue,’ liquidator Anna Agostino told 9News. ‘With a name like Adelaide Designer Homes, you’d think that’s what you’re getting,’ an employee of Adelaide Designer Homes who wished to remain anonymous told 9News. The liquidator is now looking into whether it should have shut up shop sooner.”

“He says he’s one of those now left out of pocket. He claims the company had been under financial pressure for some time. ‘I should’ve jumped ship earlier,’ the employee said. ‘You kind of think maybe it will get better, or maybe we can work through this or maybe it’s a hiccup, but it’s not.'”

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This Post Has 79 Comments

  1. ‘Sellers with properties listed for more than $2 million face intense competition, with 16.5 months of inventory for attached homes and 7 months for detached homes. The median number of days on the market jumped by 50% over June to 15 days’

    Somebody is a lion.

  2. ‘He filed for property damages and still has not heard from the company. The insurance policy for his home, which was insured by the same company that carries my home insurance, also was not renewed. ‘You pay your premiums for 10 years, never have a claim, and then they drop you,’ Gite said. ‘How can they do this? It’s stressful to find another company to insure you when you live in Houston. You can be fed up with this, but what can you do?’

    I know yer fooked Lloyd, but don’t forget to keep sending in that check! That’s how insurance works.

  3. ‘They haven’t raised their dues in like 15 years, so now they’re behind everyone,’ Llombart said. ‘They make barely enough to pay their insurance on a monthly basis… They don’t have enough to pay [the water bill], and the water no longer wants to take installments.’ Conley said she feels ‘frustrated, disillusioned and generally just pissed off’

    It is still cheaper than renting Hilda.

  4. ‘a technology consultant who lives in Lower Polk, participated in the poll. Day said he doesn’t support Mayor London Breed’s intensified homeless encampment sweeps, saying that ‘just throwing people’s stuff in dumpsters and telling them to leave isn’t a long-term solution.’ He worries about ‘conservative political rhetoric’ rising in San Francisco’

    Orange man bad is coming to get ya Parker!

  5. ‘He says he’s one of those now left out of pocket. He claims the company had been under financial pressure for some time. ‘I should’ve jumped ship earlier,’ the employee said. ‘You kind of think maybe it will get better, or maybe we can work through this or maybe it’s a hiccup, but it’s not’

    One of the reasons for this employee is shack building is a crooked business all over the world. It doesn’t seem out of place that they can’t pay this or that because that’s the way it always is. One bad month away from bankruptcy at all times. And when it happens, drain the bank accounts, unplug the phones and go spend the filthy lucre on a beach somewhere.

  6. “Angelenos should be able to reasonably expect their investment to return decent meals for our unhoused neighbors — not instant ramen for almost every meal.’”

    Why should the homeless eat better than most of the “middle class” currently?

    1. “I shouldn’t say it, but it really sucks to work every day and not have a cent and have to wonder, ‘Can I afford groceries this week?’” said Stone, who purchased her condo in Ormond Beach, Florida, for $400,000 in 2021. “Every penny I make goes towards that concrete restoration.”

      She considered selling, but the assessment was driving down property values in the building. A unit similar to the one Stone paid $400,000 for in 2021 is currently listed for $335,000 after multiple price reductions.

      Her only option, she said, was to go back to work. She reapplied to the school in Las Vegas where she had been working before she retired and is now teaching 3- to 5-year-olds with autism, she said.

      “I am exhausted every single day,” Stone said. “I come home and promptly fall asleep and get up and do it the next day.”

      “When you put the maintenance on a second tier and you don’t do simple but very important things, such as painting the building, that has a very bad effect on the long-term longevity of a building,” said Batista. “But a lot of people, they’d rather put nice carpet in the lobby as opposed to taking care of real issues.”

      Among those suing is Cristian Murray, who bought his condo in 2016 and had recently retired after working as a health care administrator at the University of Miami for 20 years. Now, he’s planning to go back to work to pay off the $140,000 special assessment.

      To make the payment, he took out a 20-year loan on which he’s paying $1,000 a month on top of the $3,000 a month he owes toward his mortgage and other condo association fees.

      “Pardon my language, but we’re screwed,” Murray said. “These guys ruined my early retirement plan.”

      Stone would like to see the state Legislature give buildings and condo owners more time to comply with the regulations so they would be able to spread out the costs. While she thinks the requirements will be a good thing in the long run, she doesn’t foresee being able to recover the money she’s had to spend on her condo.

      “I’m going to be there until I die because I’m not going to recoup that money before I die,” she said. “If I could ever recoup my money, I would probably look at selling and getting a single-family home again. But I don’t see that happening, not in my lifetime.”

    1. ‘Laura Graves and her husband Samuel never thought they’d be raising their two children in an apartment, but they said the housing market has left them with little choice.

      Over the last three years, the couple, who are both 36 and based in a Portland suburb, has been looking for a home. They want to keep their monthly mortgage payment between $3,000 and $3,500 — or around 30% of their monthly take-home income of about $11,000. Laura is a financial analyst, and Samuel is an electrician: They each made six figures last year, totalling $250,000.

      However, rising home prices and mortgage rates in recent years have made this goal difficult to accomplish. Laura said most homes they’re interested in would require a monthly mortgage payment of at least $5,000, or about half of their monthly income. So rather than splurging on a home outside their budget, they’ve decided to wait, pay $2,700 a month for a two-bedroom apartment and storage unit, and cross their fingers that the market moves in their favor.

      “We refuse to become ‘house-poor’ and, like many others, are choosing to sit it out until the housing market is reasonable again,” Laura said. Someone is “house-poor” when they’re struggling financially because their homeownership costs are too high.’

      1. It gets interesting when affordable housing programs incentivize marginally qualified buyers to strap themselves with unsustainable debt burdens, while well-qualified buyers like this young couple make the rationale choice to keep on renting.

        1. It seems like a couple is very fixated on buying. Why not rent a nice 4br house while saving 20% towards retirement, instead of raising the kids in a dinky apartment while perpetually stressing out about buying a house?

  9. A LeFever Mattson Company Files for Bankruptcy

    August 8, 2024

    A LeFever Mattson company is officially filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy. LeFever filed for Chapter 11 in U.S. Bankruptcy Court on behalf of one of his company’s real estate portfolios, Windscape Apartments LLC., on Tuesday. Windscape is a diverse collection that includes small office parks and residential houses. With the split between business partners Tim LeFever and Ken Mattson, more bankruptcy cases could be coming between them and their more than 100 spinoff corporations.

    https://www.ksro.com/2024/08/08/a-lefever-mattson-company-files-for-bankruptcy/

    I would be following this more closely but the Press Democrat is the only paper that covers Sonoma, CA and they have a pay wall now.

    1. Ben-

      Copy paste the URL of any of the articles you want to read into Archive.is. Once the article is “archived”, you can read the whole thing for free.

      1. I had to go to the article to read that the $20T refers to the entire market cap of 21 million bitcoin, not $20T for each bitcoin.

        For reference, the total wealth of the US is $129T. At a limit of 21 million bitcoin, that works out to $6.14 million/BTC. So, his numbers are not far off. This calculation doesn’t include all the global dollars that were created to buy oil worldwide.

        However, this would ONLY happen IF (big IF) Congress chose to get rid of the dollar and fully adopt bitcoin. But again, the ONLY reason this bitcoin would reach that value is if the US Congress decided to totally replace the dollar with bitcoin. And that’s the US. And I think the general view of Congress is make Bitcoin an official asset, not a currency. Without the hope of being a replacement currency, bitcoin is practically useless.

        1. “However, this would ONLY happen IF (big IF) Congress chose to get rid of the dollar and fully adopt bitcoin.”

          Why even entertain outlandish fantasies?

  11. Fox Business
    Real Estate Published
    August 9, 2024 12:44pm EDT
    Looming US recession will give hope to first-time homebuyers, expert says
    ‘We have to bring home prices down,’ John Lonski stressed
    By Alicia Warren FOXBusiness

    – John Lonski: This economy is in need of a correction

    – Thru the Cycle President John Lonski discusses the global selloff and the current state of the housing industry.

    First-time homebuyers may eventually get their big break, but an economic expert says it will not take place until after a recession.

    During an appearance on “Varney & Co.” Tuesday, Thru the Cycle President and experienced economic forecaster John Lonski said that first-time buyers may be able to buy after the next recession, which “may not be that far away.”

    “You know, the recession could start as early as this October. But I would imagine that it’s going to pop up at some point within the next 12 months. That’s the first step to getting home prices lower,” Lonski suggested.
    …
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/media/looming-us-recession-give-hope-first-time-homebuyers-expert-says

        1. I find it amusing that an immigrant is complaining about how immigration is ruining Canada.
          i got a buddy in SC from Chicago who is always complaining that the Yankees are ruining SC. I just SMH and roll my eyes

          1. Technically, Chicagoans are midwesterners and not Yankees, but your point is well taken, as what he’s really saying is that outsiders are ruining South Carolina.

          6. To a native southerner, anyone from north of Mason-Dixon is “yankee”.

            And outside the US everyone in America is a Yankee (or a yanqui if you prefer), including Southerners. As in “Yankee go home”.

            I realize that the definition is fluid, but calling someone from say Montana a Yankee might come across as absurd in the Big Sky state.

          7. I realize that the definition is fluid, but calling someone from say Montana a Yankee might come across as absurd in the Big Sky state.

            I have lived in Florida all my life (79 years). I do not recall ever meeting anyone from Montana and I don’t remember ever seeing a Montana tag here.
            If one shows up, I will say “Howdy , partner”.

          8. I don’t remember ever seeing a Montana tag here.

            Even here in the Centennial State they are a rare sight. Not a lot of people there and it’s pretty far from the east coast.

            Montana is part of the “Rocky Mountain West”. I think a Montanan is more likely to be a lumberjack or a miner than a cowboy

      2. At 3 minutes: “Canada is turning into a sh$thole third world country.”

        The dude is threatening to grab his ball and leave, when the time is right. So what’s he waiting for? My guess is that it’s an empty threat as his only alternatives are even worse sh!tholes. He could try the illegal route into the US. He might even get refugee status and an EBT card with a generous monthly allowance.

  13. Do you worry that the soft landing scenario may prove to be an irrationally exuberant pipe dream?

    1. Yahoo
      Motley Fool
      The Long-Inverted Yield Curve Just “Uninverted,” but That’s Not Necessarily a Good Thing
      James Brumley, The Motley Fool
      Sun, Aug 11, 2024, 1:31 AM MDT
      6 min read

      After a little over two years, the yield curve is back to normal. That is to say, interest rates on longer-term bonds are once again higher than the interest rates of shorter-term bonds like two-year Treasuries.

      Rates on 10-year Treasury bonds first fell below two-year Treasury rates back in July 2022, when investors feared then-rampant inflation would lead to a recession. Part of this defensive preparation included buying long-term bonds — even at subpar interest rates — since other kinds of investments could soon be losing ground. As of this week, though, this dynamic is no longer in place.

      Except the uninversion of the long-inverted yield curve isn’t quite what it seems to be on the surface. The inversion has been undone mostly because the market’s now betting on more aggressive rate cuts than previously expected, suddenly dragging long-term interest rates much lower than shorter-term rates have fallen. And regardless of how it happens, the reversal of such an inversion doesn’t necessarily mean we’ve sidestepped trouble. The recessions often predicted by a yield curve’s inversion typically don’t start until after the inversion is unwound.

      In other words, now’s a good time to start thinking about playing a little defense.

      What is the yield curve anyway, and why should I care?
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/long-inverted-yield-curve-just-073100043.html

    2. Greatest Bubble’ Nearing Its Peak, Says Black Swan Manager
      Universa’s Mark Spitznagel, who has made billions from past crashes, sees last hurrah for stocks before severe reckoning
      By Spencer Jakab
      July 19, 2024 5:30 am ET
      Mark Spitznagel, founder and chief Investment officer of Universa Investments, in 2021.
      Photo: Brendan McDermid/Reuters

      Talk is cheap when it comes to where stocks are headed, but investors’ ears perk up when Mark Spitznagel speaks.

      One reason is that he has made some spectacular scores, including earning $1 billion in a single day, since setting up tail risk hedge fund Universa Investments in 2008. The other is that he steadfastly hasn’t relied on any sort of short-term view to do so.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/greatest-bubble-nearing-its-peak-says-black-swan-manager-6f531740

    3. Finance
      Economy
      World Economy
      ‘Largest drop in history’: Global markets in chaos as recession fears explode

      The last 10 days have seen global markets experience the most jarring rollercoaster ride since the pandemic. Here’s what’s really going on.
      Tarric Brooker
      4 min read
      August 10, 2024 – 3:59PM
      Geopolitics Expert Roger Gewolb discusses what led to more than $100 billion worth of stock being wiped off the ASX in the space of just a few days. The crashing of stock markets and asset values around the world has placed Australia on the brink of a recession. “There was a giant sell-off and Japan suffered the worst fall in 37 years,” Mr Gewolb told Sky News host Gabriella Power. “That reverberated around the world because these assets are all over the world.”

      The past 10 days have seen global markets experience the most jarring rollercoaster ride since the pandemic.

      In a single day, the main Japanese stock exchange, the Nikkei, saw the largest drop in its history, falling by almost 4500 points. In percentage terms, the 12.4 per cent fall was the largest drop since the famous October 1987 stock market crash.

      Meanwhile, interest rate futures markets in the US began pricing in an emergency rate cut that would take place between the scheduled meetings of the US Federal Reserve as panic began to set in.

      The volatility index or VIX of the main US stock index, the S & P 500, rocketed to a level seen only twice in its more than 30-year history, during the height of the Global Financial Crisis and the pandemic.

      Amid this wild ride in global markets, it’s worth exploring what is driving this volatility and what may lay ahead as a result.

      Shifting sands in Japan

      For almost 30 years, the Bank Of Japan’s cash rate has been hovering at or around 0 per cent, with it dipping to a negative figure of 0.1 per cent for more than seven years between 2016 and 2024.

      This near unprecedented set of circumstances created a unique series of incentives for investors.

      An investor could borrow in Japanese Yen from a Japanese bank at extremely low rates, invest that money in stocks, bonds or even a simple high interest savings account, then pocket the difference.

      This is known in the world of investing as a carry trade.
      …
      https://www.news.com.au/finance/economy/world-economy/largest-drop-in-history-global-markets-in-chaos-as-recession-fears-explode/news-story/

      1. There was a giant sell-off and Japan suffered the worst fall in 37 years

        If you look at the past 10 years, the Japanese market is still clearly in a moon shot.

    4. Why U.S. stocks face a bumpy road to recovery with inflation and earnings updates on the horizon
      Wednesday’s inflation report is expected to be the main event for the stock market during a busy week that also includes earnings from big retailers and a retail sales report
      By Isabel Wang
      Last Updated: Aug. 11, 2024 at 9:24 p.m. ET
      First Published: Aug. 11, 2024 at 12:01 p.m. ET
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-u-s-stocks-face-a-bumpy-road-to-recovery-with-inflation-and-earnings-updates-on-the-horizon-454712b7

    5. Volatility is the stock market’s new normal
      No matter where the economy goes, Wall Street is entering a prolonged period of chaos.
      Photo illustration of a speedboat creating waves that look like a volatile stock market graph
      Getty Images
      Linette Lopez
      Aug 11, 2024, 3:47 AM MDT

      Global markets had an acute panic attack this week — a sudden bout of chaos in what has been otherwise a rather placid and predictable year.

      The dizziness started in Asia: Markets crashed in Japan early Monday, with the headline Nikkei index falling by as much as 12.4%. The trembling then spread across the globe as cryptocurrencies — supposedly an uncorrelated store of value — experienced a temporary loss of control, plummeting along with everything else. By the end of the day it was clear that US stock markets could not catch their breath. Fully untethered from reality, hearts palpitating wildly up and down Wall Street, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down more than 1,000 points, a 2.6% drop, while the tech stock-heavy Nasdaq tanked by 3.4% and the S&P 500 sank 3%. In the days that followed, the market jumped or fell with each new piece of information, leading to a distinct tightness in every investor’s chest.

      As with any panic attack, the reasons for its sudden onset are myriad — a compounding of long-known anxieties both in and out of our control. After the Bank of Japan hiked interest rates, the Japanese yen appreciated suddenly, scrambling the carry trade, a popular Wall Street strategy that had been paying off for years but requires placid markets to sustain itself. Added on top were concerns about Big Tech, the backbone of 2024’s roaring market. After wrapping up earnings season with little profit to show for investments in AI, worries that companies wasted $1 trillion on this nifty but unproven tech went from whispers to open debate.
      …
      https://www.businessinsider.com/recession-fears-fueling-stock-market-crash-wall-street-chaos-positive-2024-8

      1. “The trembling then spread across the globe as cryptocurrencies — supposedly an uncorrelated store of value — experienced a temporary loss of control, plummeting along with everything else.”

        It should be interesting to see whether the cryptobois’ bullshit machine can erase the memory of this little wrinkle in their narrative.

  14. SW 12th Terrace, Cape Coral

    That satellite pic of this area is wild! At least 1/4 of the homes are covered with blue tarps.

  15. Lawrence Summers Calls For SEC Investigation Into Unprecedented VIX Movement
    by Bibhu Pattnaik, Benzinga Staff Writer
    August 10, 2024 1:30 PM | 2 min read

    Zinger Key Points

    – Lawrence Summers calls on SEC to probe the abnormal spike in the VIX, signaling potential market manipulation.

    – The fear gauge’s leap to over 65 amidst stock selloff raises red flags over the influence of illiquid instruments.

    Former Treasury Secretary Lawrence Summers has urged the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to conduct an investigation into the historic surge in the Cboe Volatility Index (VIX) that occurred on Monday.

    What Happened: Summers speculated that the unusual VIX movement could be due to the influence of illiquid instruments used in its calculation.

    The VIX, often dubbed the “fear gauge,” is a barometer of anticipated stress in U.S. equities. Amidst a sharp selloff in stocks on Monday, the VIX saw an unparalleled surge, soaring over 65, a level that signals extreme investor panic.

    According to the report by Bloomberg, experts suggest several technical factors, such as a lack of liquidity, short covering in misfired volatility bets, or the way the gauge is calculated, could have played a role in this surge.

    “My understanding is that because there are some illiquid instruments that go into the calculation of the VIX, the VIX had a somewhat artificial move on Monday,” Summers said.
    …
    https://www.benzinga.com/news/24/08/40301145/lawrence-summers-calls-for-sec-investigation-into-unprecedented-vix-movement

  16. “She said living in San Francisco the past few years has made her more politically conservative. ”

    Wait till you get mugged, Julia. Then you’ll come back and tell everyone how your voting for Trump!

  17. ‘For buyers, this is great news’

    This is another UHS paid for article BTW. About one a week now.

  18. Not only this but I saw a video that showed this event was invitation only which seemed odd because there where Hamas protestors there. Of course it only seemed odd until the dude who was showing and analyzing the video showed Kamala looking down to read her response to the protestors six or seven times.

    The whole damn thing is a made for TV clown show,

    Kamala Harris Lies About Size of Arizona Rally Crowd; Massive Black Curtains Used to Hide Thousands of Empty Seats

    by Kristinn Taylor Aug. 10, 2024 4:00 pm

    Viral photo from the Harris-Walz rally at the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona shows empty sections of seating blocked by black curtains as well as empty club level sections, August 9, 2024.

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2024/08/kamala-harris-lies-about-size-arizona-rally-crowd/

    1. The whole damn thing is a made for TV clown show,

      Clown World is pervasive. UK doctors are now required to ask men if they are pregnant.

  19. ‘This is economically devastating for us. We don’t have the money, or flood insurance. For me, I feel like that’s beyond our neighborhood responsibility’

    Everything about this Florida ‘crisis’ was well known and talked about for years. What has emerged recently is: a lot of shack owners don’t have flood insurance, some saying they can’t afford it anyway. And most airbox owners can’t afford insurance going forward.

  20. LL wants to see us on Thursday. Even though we just had an inspection done by the PM, she says she wants to see the place for herself.

    She’s selling, no doubt, and wants to have repairs/renovations done before the end of our lease (December 31st) at our inconvenience.

    As discussed here, buying these days is a nightmare, but renting is no day at the beach either. Just perused Nextdoor and freaked out reading all the stories about people not being able to find a place, never mind affording it.

    1. Just perused Nextdoor and freaked out reading all the stories about people not being able to find a place, never mind affording it.

      Seeing that in my neck of the woods too.

      1. Well, it’s not our first time at the rodeo. I’ll be saying no to a lot of her requests. Realtors have no respect for tenants in these situations. Pets’ future looks dim.

  21. ‘A homeless services provider for Los Angeles’ Inside Safe motel shelter program is under investigation on fraud allegations, after officials determined that it failed to provide nutritious meals to residents despite being paid a $110 per person daily fee to provide those and other services. The City Controller’s Office said in a July 26 news release that the unnamed provider’s on-site ‘food inventory consisted almost entirely of instant ramen noodles.’ ‘The small remaining portion of other food inventory consisted only of instant oatmeal, canned soup, canned corn, and canned refried beans’

    It’s interesting that all at once, this new commie industry was created, and immediately the fraudsters poured in. Real estate, hotels, food service. The worst is ‘behavioral health’, what ever the fook that is.

    1. ‘behavioral health’, what ever the fook that is.

      Counseling, psychotherapy. The modern equivalent of blood leeches.

  22. ‘The newer federal audit seems to underscore a broader lack of accountability in the homelessness sector, said Sen. Dave Cortese, a Democrat from Santa Clara County. ‘The biggest reason of all that it’s frustrating is these are public sector dollars, they’re tax payer dollars,’” Cortese said. ‘It’s disrespectful to the taxpayers to say, ‘Gee, we don’t really know what happened here to your money’

    Those are Jerry bucks at this point Dave. I’m not paying it nor are you. Put us all together and it’s mathematically impossible.

    1. Put us all together and it’s mathematically impossible.

      Which is why I think sometimes that the inflation is intentional: they are monetizing the debt in order to kick the can a few more years.

  23. ‘We know that in just the past six years, state government has spent about $24 billion aimed at trying to get a handle on California’s worst-in-the-nation homeless crisis. Amazingly, local governments and private charities have spent additional countless billions more. Despite those immense expenditures, the number of un-housed Californians has continued to increase to more than 181,000 in the latest federal census. California accounts for 28% of all people experiencing homelessness in the country, and 49% of all unsheltered people in the U.S. Shockingly, the State Auditor’s Office released a report in April that found it’s impossible to figure out if California’s largest homeless programs are working because there’s almost no relevant data to be found. The same was the case with city and county’

    At least we cured cancer.

    1. At least we cured cancer.

      There are few “cures” for anything. What there is a lot of are never ending “treatments” which generate a lot of cash flows for vendors and providers.

      1. 👍 My last oncologist told me he was in a feud with another doctor in town. He wasn’t specific, but I searched it. Apparently, the other doctor told him, “Look, you get them for radiation, then I get them for chemo” (quote in the LV Review Journal.) My doctor did not want to recommend chemo for their mutual patient. He won a lawsuit against him (don’t remember on what basis), but my doctor went out of business.

  24. ‘says the market had changed ‘dramatically’ soon after her clients listed their house in September’

    You took their wishing price to get the listing Michelle.

    ‘The property was also difficult to show because it was tenanted. They relisted several times, dropping the price according to comparables in the neighbourhood. Once re-listed at $2.999-million, they received a couple of offers and, after some deliberation, they finally accepted one of them. The deal completed July 8’

    ‘Ms. Vaughan said their timing was unfortunate, so her clients chose not to hold off any longer and sell for less than they’d hoped, but with a short closing period. ‘We lost the market and then we were chasing it down,’ Ms. Vaughan says. ‘It was one of those situations. When you see the market dropping, it’s scary. You had to get ahead of it, which is why they took this offer’

    Yer right Michelle, it’s only going to get worser. And you got a check while they took an a$$ pounding.

  25. ‘When I was interviewing short-term real estate investors, their message to locals was: ‘Move from the city center. This is a future opportunity for us, not a residential place anymore. Leave us alone and assume that you can’t live here’

    We’ve read a few of these ‘resistance is useless’ quotes from STR gamblers lately.

  26. Trudeau Liberals 3rd place in Quebec as Conservatives lead every province

    The National Telegraph

    51 minutes ago

    Wyatt Claypool talks about the Liberal Party falling into 3rd place in Quebec and struggling in the LaSalle—Émard—Verdun federal byelection. Pierre Poilievre has his approval rise and the Conservatives lead in every province.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L6dNn1dp9ww

    16:41.

    1. The next Canadian nationwide election is October 2025.

      Say what you will about the left, they don’t give up, never. They will cheat if they must. I wouldn’t put it beyond them to fabricate an emergency and suspend the election, while they pinkie swear to have elections after the never ending emergency ends.

      I really do hope that Poilievre and his party win in a landslide. And I hope even more that if they win they actually turn out to be true conservatives and not cuckservatives like the Tories are in Britain.

        1. There was a time when expecting that from the “loyal opposition” was reasonable. Now it means you are an extreme right raycis.

          There is no loyal opposition anymore. Just tyrants who want to regulate every aspect of your life.

  28. Migrants Camp in City Streets as Biden’s Shelters Overflow and Gang Violence Grows

    Warner Todd Huston
    11 Aug 2024

    President Joe Biden’s flood of poor migrants is overflowing taxpayer-funded shelters and streaming into city streets and parks, causing alarm among voters, families, and city officials alike.

    As the number of migrants continues to grow in the Big Apple, authorities are beginning to become concerned over the number of border crossers who are choosing to live outside in tents instead of going into the city’s shelter system.

    One such camp has sprung up in Randall’s Island where literally hundreds of tents are routinely pitched by illegal aliens. Another outdoor camp has sprung up under a highway overpass in Brooklyn. But there are many more such encampments, the New York Times recently reported.

    With the city already struggling to house some 65,000 migrants, a major factor spurring migrants to camp outside in tents is that they feel unsafe in the massive shelters arranged by city officials. Many migrants in these open-air encampments told the paper that there is no order or safety inside the buildings the city has refashioned into shelters and gangs, drugs, unruly behavior, and human trafficking is rife inside the shelters the city runs. Ultimately, they told the Times they feel safer outside in tents.

    Actual citizens have complained about these conditions for months. And not just in New York, but in cities including Denver, Chicago and Boston, as well. Indeed, nearly everywhere there are migrant shelters, rising crime rates follow.

    According to the Center for Immigration Studies, the population of illegal immigrants in Massachusetts totals to an unsustainable 355,000 illegals.

    The people of Massachusetts have already spent $1 billion on the state’s shelter system, but that cost will soar to another $1.8 billion by 2026, according to the Center for Boston Herald.

    But the costs are actually far, far higher because this $1 billion is only the cost of the housing and does not include the costs of feeding, clothing, educating, and giving free medical and legal aid to those in the shelter system. Nor does it include other social services such as food stamps, Medicaid and the costs of other such programs.

    The costs piling up in other areas are rarely included in reviews of how much illegal aliens cost the state. For instance, the cost to the Bay State’s food stamp program alone could ring in at $4.6 million by 2026. Then there is the rarely noted costs of incarcerating illegals arrested for crimes which now tops $27 million a year.

    The situation is echoed all across the country in Illinois, California, Colorado, and every other city being swamped by Joe Biden and Kamala Harris’s wave after wave of illegal migrants.

    https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2024/08/11/migrants-camp-in-city-streets-as-bidens-shelters-overflow-and-gang-violence-grows/

    1. Market Updates
      Bitcoin Slips Below $59K as Crypto Market Faces $132M in Liquidations
      Bitcoin Slips Below $59K as Crypto Market Faces $132M in Liquidations
      By Jamie Redman
      Sun Aug 11 18:5:43 EST 2024

      On Sunday, bitcoin slipped below the $60,000 mark and dipped even further beneath the $59,000 range. The leading cryptocurrency touched an intraday low of $58,315, after previously hitting a high of $61,868 earlier in the day.

      Crypto Crash Course: Long Positions Take a Tumble in Sunday’s Wipeout

      Statistics show the broader crypto market saw a decline of 3.18% over the past 24 hours, bringing its total value down to $2.06 trillion. Bitcoin (BTC) itself dropped by 3.8% in the same period, reaching its low of $58,315 on the exchange Bitstamp at 5:13 p.m. EDT. Although global crypto trading volume increased by 7.53% compared to the previous day, it remained subdued compared to the previous week. This latest dip in value adds up to a 13.9% loss for BTC over the last two weeks against the U.S. dollar.
      …
      https://news.bitcoin.com/bitcoin-slips-below-59k-as-crypto-market-faces-132m-in-liquidations/

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