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Investors Have Largely Disappeared, And On Top Of That, We Have A Lot Of Investors Selling

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Realtor Carmen Crane from The Roxberg Group in Draper answers the most frequently asked real estate questions her firm has received. How much will be my down payment? Carmen says it really depends on a variety of factors. Typically it’s between 3%-20%. In some cases as first time buyers you may not need any money down. When is the market going to crash? Carmen says not any time soon because people have more equity in their home and their are many more guidelines when buying a home than prior to the 2008 market crash.”

“Baker resident Terri James, a realtor in Denver for the past twenty years, tells Westword that many of her clients are ‘house poor.’ They spend all their money on mortgages, she says, and can only afford to buy a new house with equity loans. Many of them return to renting because the interest rate for mortgages has climbed from 3 percent to 7 percent in the past few years, according to James, who says she’s felt the same pressure of rising costs to move out of Baker. ‘We have a huge problem,’ James told Mayor Mike Johnston at the meeting. ‘I don’t want to leave my neighborhood. I love my home, and I just don’t know where to even move.'”

“Buyer specialist Joel Picolo, best known for his role in the HGTV show Selling the Big Easy said a multi-million-dollar settlement is in the process of being implemented. A seller will now have to decide how much of the buyer agent’s commission they’re willing to pay, if at all. Picolo said many buyers only have enough savings for a downpayment and maybe closing costs. Now, those who are already on a tight budget have a greater chance having to be the ones to pay their agent. ‘Do you think a buyer is going to want to come out of pocket like that when we’re in a buyer’s market? No! We have seen the most inventory we’ve seen in years,’ Picolo said.”

“Builder confidence fell for the fourth month in a row in August. In August, 33% of builders cut prices, the NAHB said, up from 31% in July. That’s the highest share of builders slashing prices this year. The average price cut was 6%. Sixty-four percent of builders were using sales incentives other than price cuts to improve sales in August, up from 61% in July. These include offering mortgage-rate buydowns. The use of sales incentives was at the highest level since April 2019.”

“Home sales in the Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metropolitan statistical area continue another month of decline comnewpared to 2023, with total sales, new listings and pending sales down, while active listings and inventory increased. Median prices in Bastrop, Caldwell, Hays and Williamson counties all decreased compared to July 2023, falling below the MSA’s median price of $450,000. ‘With [mortgage] rates around 6.5%, only about half of homeowners in our market can afford a median priced home and only about a quarter of renters can afford a starter home,’ ABOR housing economist Clare Knapp said in the report. ‘Home prices across the market still need to decrease to meet market conditions and meet buyers where their purchasing power is currently.'”

“There are growing concerns and calls for a special legislative session in Tallahassee to battle a growing issue among condo owners. ‘What this has done is kind of created a rush to the exits as many of these building owners are finding out that they need millions of dollars for repairs,’ said Jeff Brandes, a former Republican state senator in Pinellas County.”

“Over 400 deals to buy a home in Miami-Dade died in June. Over 500 fell apart before reaching the closing table in both May and April. The contracts were canceled. There was no deal. Over 16% of pending home sales have gone bust before closing in Miami-Dade County this year according to Redfin. A record number of home buying contracts were canceled nationwide in June. ‘In the first place, buyers won’t even probably go into a contract if they’re very skittish about the condo market,’ said Miami Association of Realtors Chief Economist Gay Cororaton. The pace of condo sales has fallen in South Florida as the end of the year deadline approaches for the condo reforms. The number of condos for sale has ballooned more than 30% compared to a year ago.”

“Steve Sonza served 16 years in the California National Guard and recently retired. He said the decision was based on medical need — now 100% disabled due to post traumatic stress disorder and memory loss. So, when his family enlisted Anchored Tiny Homes to build a $330,000-plus accessory dwelling unit (ADU) in the backyard, it seemed smart to link the contractor directly to their bank account — to ensure no payments were forgotten. The family says they got a state grant for $40,000, plus a home equity loan for more than $50,000 to pay Anchored Tiny Homes for initial plans and permits. All the transactions took place on the same day. In total, more than $221,000 was transferred to Anchored Tiny Homes’ account. ‘They took the money from our retirement savings. All of it, essentially,’ Sonza said. They ‘drained it.’ The family has nothing new in the yard. He said they’re out $315,700. One Bay Area district attorney’s office says it’s looking into the situation.”

“As the Toronto condo market faces a major slowdown, John Pasalis, president and broker of Realosophy Realty, said there are two major trends occurring. One is that sales have fallen due partly to the fact that end users are facing challenges when buying units and ‘investors have largely disappeared.’ ‘And on top of that, we have a lot of investors selling. They’re exiting the market. The units don’t make sense from a cash flow perspective,’ he said. Pasalis also highlighted that demand has fallen for pre-construction condos. ‘That’s because prices have been flat, so they’re thinking, what’s the point of buying a project if I don’t know where prices are going to be four years from now,’ he said.”

“As buyers continued to benefit from increased choice in the GTA marketplace last month, many sellers were forced to knock thousands of dollars — or in some cases, hundreds of thousands of dollars — off their properties just to finalize a sale. One recent example involves a four-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse in Brampton, which originally sold for $1.25 million in March 2022, when cheaper borrowing rates contributed to heightened demand throughout the region. The home was re-listed in April 2024 for $1.1 million, but was put back on the market again as a power of sale in August. The home was sold for $875,000, representing a loss of $376,000 when compared to its price just two years earlier.”

“Hundreds of homes built for the Commonwealth Games in Birmingham are being sold off by the council at a projected loss of more than £300m, in a situation branded ‘nothing short of a scandal.’ The development was stalled because of the coronavirus pandemic, with the athletes housed in student accommodation instead. The 968 apartments have been sitting empty since they were eventually completed in 2023. The authority has spent £325m on the development, of which £292m was borrowed. The council report said the commissioners supported the decision to sell off the properties to an investor, but that lessons needed to be learned. ‘A rigorous analysis might well highlight areas of optimism bias and lack of awareness of risk which can guide a better understanding of both current and future proposals,’ the report said.”

“More than 400 houses in the huge Maritseng housing project in Matatiele in the Eastern Cape have been left half-built, with no roofs. The 1,500-house project, in several parts of Matatiele including Ramohlakoana, Jabavu, Maluti and Hardinburg, was launched in 2015. Resident Malebo Mofokeng said meanwhile people were living in mud houses. ‘The sad part is that our government doesn’t allow us to complete our RDP houses on our land,’ said Mofokeng. ‘Having a house that is incomplete in your yard is not a good thing. The incomplete house is a sign that our government failed to do financial management.'”

“Angry investors in China protested outside a shadow bank on Wednesday, after it missed payments on dozens of investment products. This rare show of public anger points to serious trouble amid debt and housing distress in the world’s second-largest economy. The protest took place outside the offices of Zhongrong International Trust in Beijing with about two dozen protesters demanding payment on their investment products. ‘The financial statements said there is a profit, and it has matured,’ a woman shouted angrily in the video, per an Insider translation. ‘So why aren’t you honoring your payments to us?’ In response, the company employee appeared to urge patience and calm, but the crowd continued to demand answers.”

“Jimmy Yang believed he was making a boring but safe investment when he bought convertible bonds of China Grand Automotive Services Group Co. in May. The country’s 801 billion yuan ($119 billion) convertible debt market was long an oasis of small but sound returns, providing shelter even during last year’s brutal market downturn. But by mid-July, the 38-year-old lost half of his 1 million yuan investment as tighter capital market rules led to panic selling in small-cap stocks and their related bonds, including Grand Auto’s. ‘I’d told myself it’s safe because it had an AA+ rating,’ said Yang, a finance director at a manufacturing company in the southern city of Guangzhou, adding that he’d been emboldened by past investment successes. He thinks authorities could have done a better job protecting investors like him, but unlike some others who’ve protested over their losses, he’s not optimistic about getting any money back. ‘I’ve lost hope,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 103 Comments

  1. ‘sold off by the council at a projected loss of more than £300m…The authority has spent £325m on the development, of which £292m was borrowed’

    That’s a heck of an a$$ pounding right there.

  2. “and their are many more guidelines when buying a home than prior to the 2008 market crash.”

    🤣🤣🤣

  3. “…enlisted Anchored Tiny Homes to build a $330,000-plus accessory dwelling unit (ADU) in the backyard…”

    $330K for an ADU in a backyard?

    Maybe 300 ft/sq?

    Sure would like to see a line item BOM to understand where all the money goes.

    Are ADU’s made of gold? Who is being paid off?

    Postscript:

    I built a large tree-house when I was a kid for essentially $0 [from salvage pallets] that probably was a lot more comfortable and certainly a lot more fun. I wired it with 110VAC and even ran a phone line. Didn’t have to pay off anyone, either.

    1. I know, this seems utterly insane. How can it possibly cost so much? Aren’t there prefabs one could just drop in, or do prefabs now cost $300K?

      1. $40K grant from CA
        $50K for “plans and permitting”

        In other words, permitting is practically free.

        There is an abundance of companies who make prefabs — essentially glorified mobile homes, for under $75K. Here’s an example:

        1 bedroom
        600 sq ft (“tiny” is now considered 500 sq ft or less)
        All appliances, including stackable hookup
        Full bath (none of that “composting toilet” nonsense)
        $69,000

        https://www.youtube.com/shorts/JGrxqLh9gOs

        So, I would say that even in Cali, you should be able to build a decent separate granny flat for $100K more or less, out the door.

        1. An unfinished Prefab would run $20K or less here, with windows and a door, delivered and spotted. You would need a concrete pad. If you can do your own interior work it would be more like $50K.

          2. Home Depot will deliver a two story tiny home for around 16k. Then you just need a couple mexicans to wire it and put up some sheet rock.

            There is a company here that will deliver plans, milled to spec lumber, and all parts for a 2BR home for around 13k, you just need to grade and assemble.

            The scam company in the article would still be making mad stacks even if they actually delivered their product. He probably gambled it or put it all up his nose.

          3. For $20K difference, I’ll get the professionals, thanks.

            Well sure. It’s more like $40K plus. Of course we are different people. Given the opportunity, I’d spend some months after work doing some carpentry, insulating, drywalling and painting. In fact, as you know I did. I am debt averse, you are not, and this kind of stuff comes easy to me. Just put the radio on Country Oldies.

            Disclaimer: My son ran all the wiring and plumbing. God bless him.

      2. This is exactly what i dont understand – for a tiny home, you can have a standard prefab, setup, hook up water/sewer and electricity, and install a few appliances.

  4. “He said they’re out $315,700”

    Never mind the permit costs, because Clownifornia, but why not build it yourself for half that cost?

    Southern Colorado in town there’s been a 400 square foot tiny listed for sale for $150K for a year now, nobody wants to buy it.

    2. My son and DOL followed your plan.

      And they didn’t have to face this decision or its consequences…

      “…it seemed smart to link the contractor directly to their bank account…”

    1. Like I’ve been saying, I work for a building department in a city out west and building permits have fallen off a cliff over the last several months. Now we’re seeing it in our inspections. We were doing close to 100 inspections a day at the beginning of the year. Now it’s like a 30 average.

      1. Trump hung a portrait of President Andrew Jackson in the Oval Office during his term. President Andrew Jackson reshaped the American economy to run without a central bank until the Federal Reserve was created in 1913.

  7. “…When is the market going to crash? Carmen says not any time soon because people have more equity in their home and their are many more guidelines when buying a home than prior to the 2008 market crash.”

    Another scripted response directly from the liars at the NAR.

    “Fish are friends, not food” – Bruce the shark

  8. “… it seemed smart to link the contractor directly to their bank account — to ensure no payments were forgotten.”

    “It seemed smart”. Okay, and then what happened?

    “All the transactions took place on the same day. In total, more than $221,000 was transferred to Anchored Tiny Homes’ account. ‘They took the money from our retirement savings. All of it, essentially,’ Sonza said. They ‘drained it.’”

    People are stupid.

  9. “One recent example involves a four-bedroom, three-bathroom townhouse in Brampton, which originally sold for $1.25 million in March 2022, when cheaper borrowing rates contributed to heightened demand throughout the region. The home was re-listed in April 2024 for $1.1 million, but was put back on the market again as a power of sale in August. The home was sold for $875,000, representing a loss of $376,000 when compared to its price just two years earlier.”

    It was still cheaper than renting!

  10. ‘He thinks authorities could have done a better job protecting investors like him, but unlike some others who’ve protested over their losses, he’s not optimistic about getting any money back. ‘I’ve lost hope,’ he said.”’

    I guess it’s human nature to expect laissez-faire rules when bubbles are inflating and government protection when they crash. It brings to mind America’s cryptobois.

  11. Is the crypto industry taking a page out of the bankers’ playbook, backing candidates on both sides of the aisle?

    1. 2024 Election
      Republicans claim betrayal as cryptocurrency PAC backs Democrats
      The large crypto PAC is supporting Democrats in Arizona and Michigan.
      Image: A banner with the logo of bitcoin is seen during the crypto-currency conference Bitcoin 2021 Convention at the Mana Convention Center in Miami,
      Attendees at the Bitcoin 2021 Convention in Miami on June 4, 2021.
      Marco Bello / AFP – Getty Images file
      Aug. 14, 2024, 3:15 PM MDT
      By Katherine Doyle

      JACKSON HOLE, Wyo. — A leading pro-cryptocurrency political group has dumped millions of dollars into high-profile Michigan and Arizona Senate races to back Democrats against Donald Trump-endorsed candidates, angering top Republicans who viewed the industry as an ally, not an opponent.

      Fairshake PAC and its affiliated super PACs are reserving millions in advertising spending to influence three U.S. Senate races this cycle, and have announced commitments of about $3 million each to Democrats Rep. Ruben Gallego, who is running in Arizona, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin, a candidate in Michigan, it said on Wednesday.
      …
      https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/republicans-claim-betrayal-cryptocurrency-pac-backs-democrats-rcna166470

      1. Before the Fed can roll out its CBDC slave tokens, they need to first bring the full power of FedGov to bear to eliminate rival counterfeiters in the scam digital currency space. Consider yourselves warned, crypto baggies.

        1. “Consider yourselves warned, crypto baggies.”

          Thanks. Again, Bitcoin is not “crypto”. It’s a protocol. Many people have a hard time understanding it. Please also warn BlackRock and Fidelity holding over $36 billion, growing daily, and many other ETFs, governments, sovereign nations and President Trump.

          Trump’s Full Speech at Bitcoin 2024 Conference
          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vPs7axMm1S8
          50m

      2. The same is happening with the Unions. The leaderships are endorsing Dems, hoping for kickbacks I guess. Meanwhile the workers themselves are quietly voting the other way.

        I think the Crypto Bros will do the same. The whole point behind Bitcoin is decentralization, and it’s plain as day which party is behind central planning.

        1. I think it won’t matter much what the cryptobois decide to do. They are greatly overestimating their importance to the election outcome.

    2. I guess it’s rationale to hedge against the election outcome rather than backing just one party and facing retaliation if the other wins.

  12. Are mortgage rates finally headed back down towards 2021 levels, proving the rate daters were right?

  16. Does it seem like a lot of people are falsely attributing the properties of precious metals to cryptocurrency? This mistake could prove costly in the next major risk asset unwind.

    1. The Motley Fool
      Free Article
      Billionaires Are Buying This Cryptocurrency That Could Soar 20,000%, According to MicroStrategy Executive Chairman Michael Saylor
      By Dominic Basulto – Aug 15, 2024 at 5:30AM

      Key Points

      – MicroStrategy Executive Chairman
      Michael Saylor recently suggested that Bitcoin could hit a price of $13 million by 2045.

      – In addition to offering the opportunity for long-term price appreciation, Bitcoin can also act as a potential hedge against political and economic risk.

      – Billionaire investors also view Bitcoin as a potential long-term store of value, similar to gold.
      …
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/08/15/billionaires-are-buying-this-cryptocurrency-that-c/

      1. “Bitcoin could hit a price of $13 million by 2045.”

        It seems more plausible that it could go to $0 by 2045, or even cease to exist, like other bubble assets that preceded it, such as South Sea stock shares.

        And meanwhile, the price of an ounce of gold will still buy you a good men’s suit, just like it does today. Gold is about as far away from crypto as you can get in terms of stable value.

        1. Serious question, has bitcoin actually achieved any of the lofty goals that proponents have been promising for ages now? Where can I spend it? No where around here.

          1. It’s too valuable to spend…and not actually a currency, outside of the minds of its deluded followers.

          2. not actually a currency

            We’ve been told it’s a “protocol”. I’ve met a few of those and even changed some. I never spent one or bought one.

        2. William Suberg
          Aug 12, 2024
          More ‘extreme fear’ than FTX crash — 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week
          Bitcoin market sentiment is as erratic as BTC price action itself as a week of macro volatility catalysts gets underway.
          Markets News

          Bitcoin continues a wild August with more volatility as the week opens with a dip below $60,000.

          After a spectacular reclaim of the ground lost after an equally spectacular collapse to six-month lows, Bitcoin price action is fighting to restore its bullish narrative.

          Who will take control in the coming days?

          The stage is already set for the ongoing battle between bulls and bears, but plenty of volatility catalysts are waiting to provide some surprises.

          Chief among them comes from outside the cryptosphere in the form of macroeconomic data from the United States.

          The July print of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) is top on analysts’ radar amid controversy over how the Federal Reserve is handling global market instability.

          Due on Aug. 14, CPI will come a day after the Producer Price Index (PPI), while jobless claims will round out the week.

          For traders, meanwhile, a double “death cross” on BTC/USD provides a grim reminder of how even bull markets can have their ugly moments.

          Bitcoin network fundamentals are also reacting to recent market turmoil, with mining difficulty set for its first drop in six weeks.

          With Bitcoin and altcoins in a state of flux, Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the key factors currently influencing the market.

          BTC price action “all over the place”

          After a flat weekend, Bitcoin upped the volatility into the weekly close, with last-minute downside attributed to manipulatory actions by large-volume traders.
          …
          https://cointelegraph.com/authors/william-suberg

          1. “More ‘extreme fear’ than FTX crash”

            You would never suspect this based on the outlandish claims made by the cryptobois that prices will go to infinity and beyond.

    2. There is no equivalency between God’s money – gold & silver – that’ve served as a store of wealth for 5,000 years, and scam digital gambling tokens “mined” from 1s and 0s with zero intrinsic value.

    3. Gold prices keep breaking records in 2024. Central banks are driving the rally.
      U.S. & Canada
      Commodities Corner
      U.S. gold futures celebrate 50 years of trading this year
      By Myra P. Saefong
      Published: Aug. 16, 2024 at 2:48 p.m. ET
      If both the West and East buy gold at the same time, that could “result in far higher gold prices than we are seeing today,” says Gold Newsletter’s Brien Lundin.
      Photo: MarketWatch photo illustration/

      It’s been almost 50 years since U.S. gold futures had their first day of trading, and the precious metal has found a great way to celebrate: 28 record-high settlements so far this year.

      And gold may still have room to run, thanks to strong buying by Western investors and global central banks.
      …
      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-prices-keep-breaking-records-in-2024-central-banks-are-driving-the-rally-a44f1430

    4. William Suberg
      6 hours ago
      Bitcoin price stumbles as gold price hits $2.5K for the first time ever

      Bitcoin could hardly look less like gold as sideways BTC price moves meet all-time highs.

      Bitcoin price stumbles as gold price hits $2.5K for the first time ever
      Market Update

      Bitcoin disappointed at the Aug. 16 Wall Street open as rangebound BTC price action contrasted with new record highs for gold.
      …
      https://cointelegraph.com/news/bitcoin-price-stumbles-gold-price-hits-2-5-k-first-time-ever

      1. “Bitcoin could hardly look less like gold as sideways BTC price moves meet all-time highs.”

        What I said…

    5. Is the explosion of cryptocurrency ETFs setting up the Rubes to become the next sorry generation of financial bag holders?

      1. Crypto ETFs:
        How Spot Bitcoin ETFs Work
        Choosing a Bitcoin ETF
        Spot-Ether ETFs
        Matt Levine: The Crypto Story
        Markets
        ETFs & Mutual Funds
        – Capula, Schonfeld, Point72 Among Hedge Funds Riding Bitcoin ETFs
        – Millennium trimmed stakes but remains among the top holders
        – 701 new funds reported positions in spot-Bitcoin ETFs
        By Isabelle Lee
        August 15, 2024 at 10:01 AM MDT

        Hedge funds, pensions and banks continued to lavish capital into exchange-traded funds that invest directly in Bitcoin, as more traditional investors embrace the asset class that US regulators begrudgingly helped push into the mainstream at the beginning of the year.

        Among the most well-known buyers that have emerged are hedge funds like Millennium Management, which held shares in at least five Bitcoin ETFs, according to a Bloomberg analysis of second-quarter filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission. The firm, which has $68 billion in assets under management, trimmed its stakes in the ETFs significantly from the prior quarter but remained as the top holder for most of the funds, including BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (ticker IBIT).

        Capula Investment Management, Schonfeld Strategic Advisors and Steven Cohen’s Point72 Asset Management also reported stakes in the ETFs. Other buyers ranged from the State of Wisconsin Investment Board to market makers among firms crossing geographies from Hong Kong to the Cayman Islands, Canada and Switzerland.

        There were 701 new funds reporting spot-Bitcoin ETF holdings following Wednesday’s deadline to file second-quarter 13F reports with the SEC, data compiled by Bloomberg show, bringing the total number of holders to almost 1,950. Millennium, Capula, Schonfeld, SWIB and Point72 declined to comment.

        The spot-Bitcoin ETFs that debuted in January have smashed expectations in terms of flows and assets. In all, the cohort, including newer entrants, has attracted a net inflow of $17 billion this year, with BlackRock’s IBIT swelling into a $20 billion behemoth. The existence of such ETFs has given everyday investors an easier way to trade in and out of Bitcoin.

        The increase in the number of holders is especially encouraging given the poor price performance — Bitcoin slid by nearly 13% in the quarter — and the fact that not many financial advisers are allowed to recommend the ETFs to their clients, according to Noelle Acheson, author of the Crypto Is Macro Now newsletter.
        …
        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-08-15/more-hedge-funds-buy-bitcoin-etfs-as-institutional-demand-grows

  17. Crash Landing: Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunged In July

    John Carney
    16 Aug 2024

    Homebuilders pulled back on building and plans to build homes in July, threatening to worsen home affordability in the U.S.

    The pace of breaking ground on new projects fell 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000, the Census Bureau said Friday. Economists had forecast a pace of 1.342 million.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/08/16/crash-landing-housing-starts-unexpectedly-plunged-in-july/

    1. “Unexpected” by who? REIC shills whose paychecks depend on Happy Talk to facilitate Always Be Closing?

  18. Crash Landing: Housing Starts Unexpectedly Plunged In July

    John Carney
    16 Aug 2024

    Homebuilders pulled back on building and plans to build homes in July, threatening to worsen home affordability in the U.S.

    The pace of breaking ground on new projects fell 6.8 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1,238,000, the Census Bureau said Friday. Economists had forecast a pace of 1.342 million.

    https://www.breitbart.com/economy/2024/08/16/crash-landing-housing-starts-unexpectedly-plunged-in-july/

  19. I’d told myself it’s safe because it had an AA+ rating,’ said Yang, a finance director at a manufacturing company in the southern city of Guangzhou, adding that he’d been emboldened by past investment successes.

    Such childlike innocence is refreshing in this jaded world of ours.

  20. I guess the attendees didn’t get paid enough to stay for the whole thing.

    Biden AND Harris Speech in School Gymnasium — Video

    Sean Miller | Infowars
    August 16th 2024, 10:19 am

    Both President Joe Biden and Vice President Kamala Harris held a rally together Thursday that could have been expected to garner a large and excited crowd, as few events include both the President and Vice President, as well as this being the first rally the duo has held together since Harris slotted into Biden’s 2024 candidacy unbeknownst to the 81-year-old Biden.

    Besides that, it is alleged that Joe Biden got more votes than any President in history ever. At least that is the claim made by liberal mainstream media outlets despite serious evidence of voter fraud and election theft together with voting machines that do not inspire confidence.

    Instead, the Democrat event, held at the Prince George’s County Community College in Maryland only filled a high-school-sized gymnasium with attendees that were described by at least one social media user as lacking engagement and interest.

    Crowd leaves joint Biden-Harris event early after VP hands off lectern to lame-duck prez

    New York Post
    19 hours ago

    https://youtu.be/UEEGCQHzlaI?si=e5nOyayfC_GW7BLP

  23. A reader sent these in:

    🏠 Tiny home company – Holy Ground Tiny Homes will convert from a Chapter 11 bankruptcy to a Chapter 7, liquidate its assets and split them among creditors

    https://x.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1823725830696002017

    “noting that 11% of the state’s private land is owned by just 37 billionaires, including Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison and Oprah Winfrey”

    https://x.com/MauiBoyMacro/status/1823774691062145475

    Absolutely wild numbers from Nissan

    https://x.com/GuyDealership/status/1823874397993623767

    The most absurd number in CPI?

    According to the US Government, the cost of health insurance has declined 30% over the last 2 years and 8% over the last 5 years…

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1823717199204507929

    Auto insurance rates in the US have increased by 50% over the past 3 years. That’s the biggest 3-year spike since 1975-78.

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1823714646874054797

    There are now 8.6 months of inventory in La Pine Oregon, 30 min south of Bend and inventory has increased by 60% in the last 90 days. Of equal significance is the price drop from last quarter to this one from $466-$448, a 4% decrease in the most recent quarter. That’s a declining market of 1.33% per month. La Pine was starting to get developed in the GFC as Bend got too expensive before it all crashed hard. No one lives there because they want to.

    https://x.com/jimmydean197/status/1822386351779762432

    $440k price reduction after a month on market on Kauai’s N Shore. Even the billionaire’s COVID island is seeing tides change, mauka too.

    https://x.com/jimmydean197/status/1822297425886724122

    This Bend, OR 1.6 acre 7800sf Awbrey Butte home is our “Winner of the Week” and had another price reduction after being on the market over 600 days. It listed at $4.5 million and is now $3.15, a mere $1.35 million drop.

    https://x.com/jimmydean197/status/1820901659112849530

    The Bend Oregon Median SP for July was $755k, $20k below June and $45k below July 2023. Short and Long term trends are now down as inventory is at a 10 year high as are price reductions. (Winner of the week is this fine 1 acre home just south of Bend on the Deschutes River. After today, it now has dropped $350k.)

    https://x.com/jimmydean197/status/1819529936493060140

    US Retail Sales increased 2.6% over the last year but after adjusting for higher prices they were down 0.4%.

    Both of these numbers are well below the historical averages of +4.6% nominal and +2.0% real.

    https://x.com/charliebilello/status/1824073788536848606

    Where in cycle?

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1824125335564100075

    Tech sector job cuts second highest month of the year

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1824124229023113548

    Trump has said: I am announcing that, under my leadership, the U.S. will commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half at least.

    Your energy bills will be down by 50%-70%.

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1824166731134406670

    Credit card balances rose 2.4% to a record-high $1.14 trillion in the second quarter of 2024 —a 48% increase since the first quarter of 2021, per the Fed.

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1824091676110999917

    Only 14% of adults have saved $100,000 or more for retirement, per GOBankingRates.

    78% of Americans have saved $50,000 or less

    https://x.com/unusual_whales/status/1824057702617846019

    Lumber prices have declined to their lowest level since the 2020 pandemic, down 80% in 2 years.

    Lumber is a leading indicator for the US housing market, global economic conditions, and inflation.

    The rapid drop in lumber prices suggests that the US residential construction and home-improvement markets are sharply slowing.

    This has been reflected in new home construction data which plummeted in June toward a 4 year low.

    Additionally, single-family housing starts declined for their 4th consecutive month in June to a 1 year low.

    The housing boom is slowing.

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1824089742494830899

    Strong Consumer?
    Prices of things we have to buy continue to surge, while prices of things we want are freefalling (weak demand).

    https://x.com/cvpayne/status/1823708312841674902

    Usually before a recession…

    -Labor force growth decelerates
    -Unemployed counts rise

    We’re seeing both right now

    https://x.com/NewsLambert/status/1823383185071210503

    Kamala Harris is proposing $25K in federal assistance for first time hedge fund managers – CNBC

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1824221047379595326

    They’re announcing stuff like this on a $3 trillion deficit

    When unemployment goes higher – one can only imagine the policy response & potential for inflation.

    https://x.com/DonMiami3/status/1824208192395677882

    If you study monetary history, this is exactly how it goes when you start getting into fiscal dominance. Politicians do this because it’s a winning strategy to get elected and that’s what they’re solving for. People feel the pain from inflation caused by excessive deficit spending, but don’t connect higher fiscal with increased pain and they gravitate to the easy solutions because the alternative is to take the pain now.

    https://x.com/EgweneAlVer/status/1824229066423038317

    Today a lovely Uber driver picked me up in a nice SUV

    We started chatting, and he mentioned
    he is a top 10% broker at one of the largest RE brokerages in the country

    What he said next shocked me.

    🚨He hasn’t sold a single home in the Dallas area since October of 2023🚨

    Not only that, but many of his listings have NO showings; low to no attendance at open houses

    He said 2024 is by far the worst year he’s had in 14 years in the profession

    And this is not unique to him, many of his peers are struggling as well

    🚩 I’ll say it again: The housing market in DFW is far worse than any headline or data point is capturing right now 🚩

    Very few homes got sold during peak season. Inventory is piling up because NOTHING IS SELLING

    Prices aren’t falling (yet) because there is no price discovery when NOTHING IS SELLING

    https://x.com/texasrunnerDFW/status/1824235406755344644

    Mortgage demand in the US has officially dropped again in August, near its lowest level since 1995, according to Reventure.

    Mortgage applications to buy a house in the US declined by 8% year-over-year in August.

    Furthermore, mortgage demand is current down ~50% from pre-pandemic levels.

    This is despite 30-year fixed mortgage rates recently falling nearly 100 basis points since May.

    Housing markets are entirely a supply narrative right now.

    https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1824181432018932124

    Vancouver Mortgage Delinquencies Return To Pre-Pandemic Levels

    https://x.com/BetterDwelling/status/1824286029928391161

    1. “noting that 11% of the state’s private land is owned by just 37 billionaires, including Mark Zuckerberg, Larry Ellison and Oprah Winfrey”

      Ellison alone owns 98% of Lanai, almost 140 square miles.

      1. Meanwhile, ethnic Hawaiians are only about 10% of the state’s population. They will soon be overtaken by Hispanics.

        This is what replacement looks like.

    2. Only 14% of adults have saved $100,000 or more for retirement, per GOBankingRates.

      A former colleague told me that she wasn’t saving for retirement. SHe also drove leased Eurotrash luxury cars.

      1. A former colleague told me that she wasn’t saving for retirement. SHe also drove leased Eurotrash luxury cars.

        I heard Kamala Harris today say that everyone who worked should be able to retire in dignity. I guess that means we should all share regardless of what decisions we made for the previous decades.

        1. It means those who saved over the decades should cover their own retirements plus help out those who didn’t save.

          1. It means

            You won’t be allowed to save. Your earnings will be skimmed off to pay the retirements of others. When you get old, it will be your turn.

            Kind of sounds like our Social Retirement System. Oops, SSI.

      2. “A former colleague told me that she wasn’t saving for retirement. SHe also drove leased Eurotrash luxury cars.”

        During the winter of 1978 we cut classes and were at the beach drinking beer, passing joints around and listening to Zeplin and the Stones. One of the overachievers from the back seat blurts out…..

        Damn, in the year 2000 we’ll be 40 years old.

        There was silence for a moment and then someone said…

        Hell, we’ll never live that long anyway.

        Laughter ensued and we went back to drinking beer, passing joints around and listening to Zeplin and the Stones.

        Like Mickey Mantle said…

        “If I knew I was going to live this long I would have taken better care of myself”

        Also, although nowhere near as bad as your former colleague, I still wish I had started saving sooner for retirement.

    3. “the U.S. will commit to the ambitious goal of slashing energy and electricity prices by half at least”

      Start building new nuclear power plants, now. And keep all the existing coal and gas plants online until nuclear is built out.

      Add to that, a ban on all speculative / non productive AI electricity usage, i.e. almost all of it. Nobody wants that woke garbage.

  24. Estimated insured losses from Hurricane Debby reached $113.8 million Wednesday, as claims continue to be filed after the storm, which made landfall Aug. 5 in Taylor County, according to data on the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation website.

    Insurers reported they had received 15,326 claims as of Wednesday, including 9,416 involving residential property.

    Other types of claims included damage to vehicles and commercial property.

    The data showed that 1,531 claims had been closed with payments made, while 1,558 had been closed without payments.

    https://www.wmnf.org/insured-losses-from-debby-reach-113-million-in-florida/

    1. https:// nitter.poast.org/ MacroOunce/ status/ 1824495070013427726#m:
      I live in a large US costal metro where the hurricane insurance situation has changed dramatically in the last year.

      whats happening is that banks will no longer lend for certain properties so only option is ALL CASH

      wanna know whats happening to prices? they are sitting steady

  25. The U.S. has been pushing for offshore wind power developments in the interest of transitioning from oil and gas but the recent failure of a massive, 13-megawatt GE Vernova Haliade wind turbine has equated the so-called “green” energy from wind turbines with an offshore oil spill.

    There are many aspects to the failure of the turbine: the event itself, and also how the companies (Vineyard Wind and GE Vernova) handled the pollution incident.

    There are many reports circulating now, including this examination by energy commentator Robert Bryce. He wrote a piece for his Substack account titled “Breaking Wind” and says this:

    “…the development of offshore wind energy on the Eastern Seaboard has been promoted by some of America’s biggest climate NGOs, including the Sierra Club, Natural Resources Defense Council, National Wildlife Federation, and Conservation Law Foundation, as well as numerous Democratic politicians at state and federal levels. But the disaster at Vineyard Wind — and it is a monumental disaster for the offshore wind industry — is spotlighting the environmental risks posed by installing dozens or even hundreds of massive wind turbines and offshore platforms in our oceans. This disaster happened in calm weather. It doesn’t take much effort to imagine what will happen when a hurricane hits the East Coast.

    “The NGOs have been shameless in their collusion with foreign corporations, including oil companies like Equinor and Total, that are eagerly queueing up to collect billions in federal tax credits. But the turbine blade failure at Vineyard Wind is only part of a broader crisis facing Big Wind, both onshore and offshore.”

    The failure of this turbine will have an effect on the business of developing offshore wind power Bryce says.

    “How bad is the problem? On June 28, Ohio-based American Electric Power sued GE Vernova in New York court, claiming widespread issues with the turbines it has deployed at three wind projects in Oklahoma. The complaint says:

    Within only two to three years of commercial operation, the GE wind turbine generators have exhibited numerous material defects on major components and experienced several complete failures, at least one turbine blade liberation event, and other deficiencies…[a]significant portion of the wind turbine generators have completely failed or have otherwise been rendered inoperable, requiring immediate repair

    “According to a July 2 article in Renews.Biz, AEP, a publicly traded utility with 5.6 million customers, says that it has already incurred:

    “ ‘millions of dollars in costs and damages in the future’ because it will “inevitably need to repair and/or replace” additional wind turbine generators in order to meet the energy production requirements of its customers. It went on to allege that GE Vernova has refused to acknowledge responsibility to repair and/or replace all defective wind turbine generators.AEP said that in addition to its claim for cash damages, it is seeking a declaratory judgment that GE Vernova is liable for expected future failures of its wind turbine generators.

    “Adding intrigue to the AEP lawsuit and the failure of the turbine blade at Vineyard Wind is that GE Vernova has not issued any press releases or filed any documents with the SEC to acknowledge its potential liabilities. … How much is at stake in the AEP vs. GE Vernova litigation? According to one report, the turbines in question have a capacity of 1.5 gigawatts and cost $6.4 billion. Thus, it’s easy to imagine that GE Vernova could be on the hook for hundreds of millions of dollars in losses. Furthermore, those losses may be only part of the company’s long-term liabilities.”

    Bryce wrote that two weeks ago. Since then, not much has changed except for more people looking at this for the disaster it is. Critical to the whole issue is the companies’ performance. The Town of Nantucket is so dismayed by the poor corporate communication and the sloppy pollution clean-up that the Town has said it will sue.

    What’s the relevance to Ontario?

    First, the wind turbine blades are not inert structures—if they shatter, the debris can scatter a significant distance, and contaminate farm fields. This has already been seen onshore in the U.S., where shreds of fibreglass made it impossible to harvest crops on nearby land after a wind turbine failure.

    Second, the relationship between the wind power developer and nearby municipalities is critical. We’ve already had an example in Ontario where a turbine near Kincardine caught fire but the operator did not inform the municipality immediately. Their interests are corporate, not humanitarian…or even environmental.

    Last, the shattered blade and widespread pollution has resulted in fissures in the wind industry’s public face. Is it really about the environment and climate…or is it really just all about money?

    https://www.windconcernsontario.ca/2024/08/15/one-turbine-one-blade-so-much-wreckage/

    1. “On June 28, Ohio-based American Electric Power sued GE Vernova in New York court, claiming widespread issues with the turbines it has deployed at three wind projects in Oklahoma.”

      What happens when a twister or a hurricane encounters one of those ginormous turbines? Seems like the movie Twisters explored the possibility.

  26. To say that life hasn’t been easy in Argentina since Javier Milei won the presidency would be to downplay the everyday reality of a nation undergoing the equivalent of economic surgery.

    In the eight months since he took office, prices have soared more than 100%, consumer spending tanked and unemployment climbed as Argentines have been submitted to the most brutal austerity shock in recent history.

    Yet something unexpected has happened on Milei’s watch: For all the ongoing misery, he remains just as popular as when he stormed to power pledging to take a chainsaw to the state. Even the hardest hit continue to swear by his bitter economic medicine.

    Among them is Monica Perez, a 57-year-old butcher shop owner whose smile belies the fact the world’s onetime red-meat capital has seen beef consumption sink to the lowest in more than a century. Where construction workers who make up the bulk of her customers once ordered beef cuts by the kilogram, now they tell her how much money they have to spend and buy whatever that yields.

    That’s indicative of a longer-term downward spiral as purchasing power plummeted under the previous left-wing government. It’s a trend that has accelerated under Milei. Perez, though, isn’t giving up on him yet.

    “Of course I have hope,” she says at her shop in the neighborhood of La Union, an hour south of the city of Buenos Aires. “Things have to change. Things will change, for the better.”

    Voters surveying the wreckage still accord the president a high degree of loyalty.

    Milei’s popularity stands at a healthy 52%, a 1 percentage point bump from February, according to polling firm Management & Fit. His immediate predecessor, Alberto Fernandez, racked up a disapproval rating of 79% by the end of his term, and is now fighting allegations of domestic abuse that risk compounding the now-opposition’s woes.

    Cooling inflation — Milei’s central rallying cry — is one leg propping up his support. Monthly price increases fell from a three-decade high of 25.5% in December to 4% in July.

    Residual anger at Peronism, the statist movement that’s governed Argentina for 16 of the last 20 years, most recently under Fernandez, helps explain the rest.

    Perez, whose butcher shop sits on the corner of an unpaved road which has no access to a public sewage system, laments the decades of state largess with little to show for it beyond a litany of dismal statistics. “The majority of us are exhausted,” she said.

    “That’s why we voted for him,” she added of Milei. “And why he won.”

    The president acknowledges the pain and maintains that the “massive effort” being made by Argentines will pay off.

    In any case, he’s not offering an alternative.

    “Everything that can be cut, we will cut,” he said in a July 19 radio interview. “The chainsaw never stops.”

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/chainsaw-never-stops-milei-support-090022728.html

  30. ‘How much will be my down payment? Carmen says it really depends on a variety of factors. Typically it’s between 3%-20%. In some cases as first time buyers you may not need any money down. When is the market going to crash? Carmen says not any time soon because people have more equity in their home’

    You walked right into that one Carmen.

  31. ‘a realtor in Denver for the past twenty years, tells Westword that many of her clients are ‘house poor.’ They spend all their money on mortgages, she says, and can only afford to buy a new house with equity loans’

    Let’s be clear here Terri, the lending is rock solid.

  32. CRE Doom Loop: Rate Cuts Can’t Fill Office Buildings

    by SchiffGold
    August 16th 2024, 1:33 pm

    With the expectation of an interest rate cut soon, commercial real estate stocks are up. But while lower interest rates might kick the can down the road, they can’t fill empty office buildings — so they won’t end the post-COVID CRE doom loop that could trigger a banking meltdown.

    All that has happened is that market manipulation expectations are driving real estate stock prices up, but without the underlying support — i.e., actual renters in commercial buildings, so that owners pay back their loans to overexposed banks. With empty buildings not collecting revenue, no hope of filling them, and trillions in loans due to mature soon, the CRE market is a ticking time bomb.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/cre-doom-loop-rate-cuts-cant-fill-office-buildings/

  33. Nolte: Trump Leads Kamala in Pennsylvania, 51 to 49 Percent

    John Nolte
    16 Aug 2024

    “A new … survey finds 49% of voters support former President Donald Trump, and 48% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in the Keystone state,” reports Emerson. “With undecided voters’ support allocated, Trump extends to a two-point lead, 51% to 49%.”

    In this poll of 1,000 likely voters taken August 13 and 14, independents support Trump by a margin of three points, 48 to 45 percent. Suburban voters choose Harris by the same margin, 50 to 47 percent.

    Voters under 40 go for Trump by a whopping 18-point margin, 58 to 40 percent. Roman Catholics prefer the former president by 21 points, 60 to 39 percent.

    Non-believers choose CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar 84 to 13 percent.

    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2024/08/16/nolte-trump-leads-kamala-pennsylvania-51-to-49-percent/

      1. I don’t believe polls. Between sampling and wording, pollsters can get whatever result is desired.

  34. ‘A seller will now have to decide how much of the buyer agent’s commission they’re willing to pay, if at all. Picolo said many buyers only have enough savings for a downpayment and maybe closing costs. Now, those who are already on a tight budget have a greater chance having to be the ones to pay their agent. ‘Do you think a buyer is going to want to come out of pocket like that when we’re in a buyer’s market? No! We have seen the most inventory we’ve seen in years’

    Sounds like a showdown Joel.

    1. And I’m here for it! Our current landlords are the two children of our original landlady. The daughter is in CT. The son visited the other day. He looks awful and appears to be in cognitive decline. Hubby wants us out of here before 2 years is up.

  35. ‘Home prices across the market still need to decrease to meet market conditions and meet buyers where their purchasing power is currently’

    That’s the spirit Clare!

  36. ‘What this has done is kind of created a rush to the exits as many of these building owners are finding out that they need millions of dollars for repairs…In the first place, buyers won’t even probably go into a contract if they’re very skittish about the condo market’

    It’s showdown Friday!

    1. I know I’ve heard that song before I don’t know how long it’s been.

      For some reason, it reminded me of seeing Earth Wind & Fire in Palm Beach in 2004, which as well as I can remember is the only concert by a major group I’ve ever seen in Florida.

  38. ‘They took the money from our retirement savings. All of it, essentially,’ Sonza said. They ‘drained it.’ The family has nothing new in the yard. He said they’re out $315,700′

    I think we can say with the recent spectacular fraudulent flame outs, the tiny shanty thing was another bubble phenomenon.

  39. ‘Pasalis also highlighted that demand has fallen for pre-construction condos. ‘That’s because prices have been flat, so they’re thinking, what’s the point of buying a project if I don’t know where prices are going to be four years from now’

    This is progress John, because two years ago everybody knew prices only go up.

  40. ‘said meanwhile people were living in mud houses. ‘The sad part is that our government doesn’t allow us to complete our RDP houses on our land,’ said Mofokeng. ‘Having a house that is incomplete in your yard is not a good thing. The incomplete house is a sign that our government failed to do financial management’

    There’s a photo of what Malebo probably owes money on, but I don’t see any mud shacks.

  41. ‘‘The financial statements said there is a profit, and it has matured,’ a woman shouted angrily in the video, per an Insider translation. ‘So why aren’t you honoring your payments to us?’ In response, the company employee appeared to urge patience and calm, but the crowd continued to demand answers’

    It’s like the end of Animal House!

  42. ‘believed he was making a boring but safe investment when he bought convertible bonds of China Grand Automotive Services Group Co. in May…But by mid-July, the 38-year-old lost half of his 1 million yuan investment…‘I’d told myself it’s safe because it had an AA+ rating…adding that he’d been emboldened by past investment successes. He thinks authorities could have done a better job protecting investors like him, but unlike some others who’ve protested over their losses, he’s not optimistic about getting any money back. ‘I’ve lost hope’

    It was only a few years ago Jimmy, that globalist scum media insisted that not even one Chinese remote coal company would ever fail cuz guberment! And then one did.

  43. Little b@stards wouldn’t try that sh#t down here because they know 15 of the 40 stand a good chance of being face down in a puddle of blood as soon as they attack.

    Kevin Dalton
    @TheKevinDalton

    Mob of 40 felonious teens on bikes beat, rob, and destroy the car of a man making the mistake of driving down a city street in Gavin Newsom’s lawless California.

    He was left with zero possessions and a broken leg.

    I hope you are sitting down. Despite clear video of everyone involved, no arrests have been made.

    11:33 AM · Aug 12, 2024

    https://x.com/TheKevinDalton/status/1823019994554491327

    1. California voted for this.

      Los Angeles voted for this.

      Denver also voted for this.

      Get out of cities soon, now…

  44. Don’t Even Bother, You’re Wasting Your Money (Peel Region Real Estate Market Update)

    Team Sessa Real Estate

    14 minutes ago MISSISSAUGA

    In this episode we take a look at the current Brampton, Mississauga, Ajax, Whitby, Pickering Real Estate home prices and market trends for week ending Aug 7, 2024. We also discuss why it becomes such a massive waste of money to spend large amounts of money on interior renovations when your house could be falling apart from the outside.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McvZ-kNgxBk

    12 minutes.

  45. What customers need to know about SunPower after company files for bankruptcy

    ABC15 Arizona

    1 day ago

    A once-mighty-recognized name in the solar business is going under. SunPower Corporation has filed for bankruptcy marking the end of the 39-year-old business. SunPower reported it’s trying to find buyers for its assets, pay back creditors, and quiet customers’ uncertainties. Nearly half a million customers have a lot of uncertainty about the future of their home solar systems.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fjeObNdgsgE

    3:11.

  46. I can add this to the list of reasons I would have turned down going to couple’s therapy if I was ever asked.

    Police: Woman Plowed Car into Boyfriend on Way to Couple’s Therapy

    Katherine Hamilton
    16 Aug 2024

    Veronica Roleen Gast, 30, was driving to a therapy session in Fergus Falls, Minnesota, on Saturday when she and her boyfriend began fighting, Fergus Now reported.

    ‘The couple already had been fighting all day when the boyfriend — who was not identified — suddenly dropped that he didn’t think their relationship was working anymore, cops said,” according to the New York Post.

    An angered Gast allegedly stopped the car in the middle of traffic and demanded that her boyfriend get out of the vehicle.

    Gast allegedly stared her boyfriend down and “floored” the car in an attempt to hit him while he walked in front of the car to get to the sidewalk, police said

    “The victim told cops he was thrown into the windshield and over the car’s hood — leaving him with an injured back and a cut on his right elbow,” according to the report.

    Gast later admitted to law enforcement that she hit her boyfriend with her car, but she said she did so by accident because she was emotional and not paying attention.

    She is facing charges of second-degree assault, gross negligence, domestic assault, and criminal vehicular operation, according to the report.

    https://www.breitbart.com/crime/2024/08/16/police-woman-plowed-car-into-boyfriend-on-way-to-couples-therapy/

    1. [Some people call this “female logic”.]

      “Gast later admitted to law enforcement that she hit her boyfriend with her car, but she said she did so by accident because she was emotional and not paying attention.”

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