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A Level Of Pause Has Taken Hold

A report from the SCTV News in California. “While still a sellers’ market, the inventory of homes and condos listed for sale in the Santa Clarita Valley increased for the third consecutive month, rising to its highest level since September 2014, the Southland Regional Association of Realtors reported. The MLS operated by the Association had 699 active home and condominium listings at the end of August, an increase of 31.1 percent over a year ago for the third consecutive double-digit monthly increase.”

“It’s been 47 months since the inventory was larger. ‘What’s clear now is that the market is morphing, changing, as more listings combined with affordability issues give buyers a few bargaining tools,’ said M. Dean Vincent, chairman of the Santa Clarita Valley Division of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors. ‘We’re a long way from a buyers’ market, but anything that eases pressure off prices is welcome news.'”

“‘A continued increase in active listings combined with slower sales and affordability limits make the market feel like it’s in transition,’ said Tim Johnson, the Association’s chief executive officer. ‘If those trends continue, buyers—even buyers with traditional financing and not all-cash offers—may have a fair shot at owning a home, while sellers may have to moderate their asking price.'”

From CBS Los Angeles in California. “With more and more home sellers dropping their prices, one homeowner in Costa Mesa went with a different tactic to entice interest in a Costa Mesa condo: throwing in a white Tesla Model 3.”

“The owner of a $1.4 million condo, located between Costa Mesa’s Fairview Park and Talbert Regional Park, is hoping the luxury electric car will sweeten the deal for anyone interested in his listing, according to the Orange County Register.”

“Real estate website Redfin found earlier this month that increasing number of home-sellers are dropping their prices, even in the hottest markets. As for the Costa Mesa condo, the Tesla it comes with was purchased in May, and has less than 5,000 miles on it.”

The Houston Chronicle in Texas. “Home foreclosures often conjure images of dilapidated tear-downs, or houses in severe need of repairs and renovation. However, the Bayou City is teeming with turn-key ready, luxury properties under foreclosure from the suburbs to River Oaks.”

“Some experts claim there’s a national increase in foreclosures again, the first time since 2015. That’s especially true in markets vulnerable to natural disasters, including Houston.”

“‘We all know how catastrophic Harvey was and how incredibly resilient our community has been, so HAR has taken great care to gauge Houston’s August housing market performance as accurately as possible given the data distortions caused by the disaster,’ said HAR Chair Kenya Burrell-VanWormer . ‘We will likely see similar distortions in the September numbers, as Harvey’s effects lingered, however current market conditions are healthy.'”

The Cape Gazette in Delaware. “The housing market has been anything but normal for the last eleven years. Two things have just occurred that are pointing to the fact that we may be returning to a more normal market.”

“1. Listing Supply is Increasing. Both existing and new construction inventory is on the rise. The latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors revealed that inventory has increased over the last two months after thirty-seven consecutive months of declining inventory. At the same time, building permits are also increasing which means more new construction is about to come to market.”

“2. Buyer Demand is Softening. Ivy Zelman, who is widely respected as an industry expert, reported in her latest ‘Z’ Report: ‘While we continue to expect a resumption of growth in resale transactions on the back of easing inventory in 2019 and 2020, our real-time view into the market through our Real Estate Broker Survey does suggest that buyers have grown more discerning of late and a level of ‘pause’ has taken hold in many large housing markets.'”

“‘Indicative of this, our broker contacts rated buyer demand at 69 on a 0- 100 scale, still above average but down from 74 last year and representing the largest year-over-year decline in the two-year history of our survey.'”

“Bottom Line: Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange.”

“That’s what is about to happen in real estate. The housing market is not falling apart.”

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This Post Has 26 Comments

  1. ‘the Bayou City is teeming with turn-key ready, luxury properties under foreclosure from the suburbs to River Oaks’

    Oh dear…

    ‘Some experts claim there’s a national increase in foreclosures again’

    And hardly anyone in the media is mentioning it.

  3. “‘A continued increase in active listings combined with slower sales and affordability limits make the market feel like it’s in transition,’ said Tim Johnson, the Association’s chief executive officer. ‘If those trends continue, buyers—even buyers with traditional financing and not all-cash offers—may have a fair shot at owning a home, while sellers may have to moderate their asking price.’”

    – Hey Timmy-boy, you must of forgot the memo… this is called a “Shift”. You mean buyers like me can buy at Housing Bubble 2.0 peak price! Damn what a great deal. Where do I sign?

    1. August 9, 2018

      “With inventory on the rise, now’s the time to buy, is the message from Santa Clarita Valley Realtors for August. The number of SCV homes available hit the highest total since September 2016 — but sales remain ‘lackluster’ and resale prices are rising, Realtors said. ‘Inventory in the Santa Clarita Valley has almost doubled from last year this time to this year,’ said Mike Bjorkman, a broker for HomeSmart NCG and California Leasing. ‘Interest rates are slowing people’s buying powers down. There are some indicators that our market is softening.’”

      “Some things Bjorkman noticed include: Price reductions are up more in the last 30 days than they have been in the last three months; open house signs are appearing more frequently; agents used to call and ask how many offers are on a house — now they tend to ask how much room there is to negotiate downward, he said.”

      “For those in the market, there’s opportunity to be had, based on the numbers, Bjorkman added. ‘You’d get a much better deal this month than you would have 60 days ago — more to choose from and more negotiable prices,’ he said. ‘We pray the economy stays strong so we have stabilization.’”

      http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10531

      1. “With inventory on the rise, now’s the time to buy, is the message from Santa Clarita Valley Realtors for August.”

        Um, yeah…now is always the right time to buy, 365 days a year of every year, according to the serial dissemblers of the NAR.

        I decline. I see the carnage that’s coming and prefer to stay clear until the dust has settled and true price discovery has laid waste to the speculators and FBs.

  4. ““The owner of a $1.4 million condo, located between Costa Mesa’s Fairview Park and Talbert Regional Park, is hoping the luxury electric car will sweeten the deal for anyone interested in his listing, according to the Orange County Register.”

    I used to work in Costa Mesa before moving to Silicon Valley early this year. Trust me no condo here is worth even $1 million dollars. While that area is a bit closer to Newport, it’s not close to the beach and ain’t no way worth 1.4 Millions. Maybe some stupid Chinese knife catchers will bid but I think we are running out of greater fools.

    1. https://www.zillow.com/homes/for_sale/Costa-Mesa-CA/246155336_zpid/38032_rid/33.651797,-117.942852,33.646948,-117.951993_rect/16_zm/

      2104 Two Harbors Cir
      Costa Mesa, CA 92627

      Notice the pic with the white Tesla model 3 in front of the place.

      The same house on

      2110 Two Harbors Cir
      Costa Mesa, CA 92627

      Sold for $1,175,000 on 2/21/18 based on records. That is already at peak bubble price and this idiot wants 1.4 millions? I wonder what it sold at 2016.

      Nearby comps
      SOLD: $767,000
      Sold on 12/18/15

      SOLD: $792,000
      Sold on 10/29/15

      This greadhead wants $600,000 profits. Hey buyers, you can overpay by more than $600K but you’ll get a used Tesla model 3 for free! Sign me up!!!!

    2. Checkout Zillow and found this place at

      2104 Two Harbors Cir
      Costa Mesa, CA 92627

      Notice the pic with the white Tesla model 3 in front of the place.

      The same house on

      2110 Two Harbors Cir
      Costa Mesa, CA 92627

      Sold for $1,175,000 on 2/21/18 based on records. That is already at peak bubble price and this idiot wants 1.4 millions? I wonder what it sold at 2016.

      Nearby comps
      SOLD: $767,000
      Sold on 12/18/15

      SOLD: $792,000
      Sold on 10/29/15

      This greadhead wants $600,000 profits. Hey buyers, you can overpay by more than $600K but you’ll get a used Tesla model 3 for free! Sign me up!!!!

  5. “Bottom Line: Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange.”

    “That’s what is about to happen in real estate. The housing market is not falling apart.”

    But but but if a bunch of speculators all slow down at the same time, and one panic and slams on the brake, I bet there will be a HUGE crash. As a REIC pimps, normal to them means that house prices will plateau at peak bubble prices forever. Maybe income will double or triple by next year to catch up? What a delusional thinking right? Trust me, like last time, someone will panic. They will panic and get out with a 10%-20% cut, while the rest of the greedy heads will die in the flames.

  7. Does it seem that the rate of unraveling is increasing? Maybe just increase in reporting, but does seem like numbers are adding up quick. Confidence is going to start swaying soon. I always have believed that if the scent from the last downturn comes back, then those who went through pain back then will react quickly. Beginning to happen? Stay tuned

    1. I believe that too…those burned last time will move fast and if the Fed succeeds in arresting the fall the buy-the-dippers will pile back in fast too. Faster and faster until it blows up.

    2. US home-building index falls 21pc since January; set for biggest fall in …
      The Australian Financial Review-1 hour ago
      New York | The housing market is stalling, and homebuilder stocks are feeling the ..

      New York City homeowners are cutting prices in a way not seen since …
      Markets Insider-Sep 21, 2018
      In one way, it’s 2009 all over again in New York City’s housing market. The number of home sellers who cut their asking prices reached its highest level since …

      1. ‘Price Cut for Berkeley Parcel with Approved Plans’

        ‘Two months ago, the parcel and plans hit the market listed for $6.7 million. And as of this afternoon, the official list price has been dropped to $5.2 million.’

    3. Two big differences this time. Everybody knows home prices can fall and we have basically live data available to reporters and the general public.

    4. It may be starting to feel like 2005, with more motivated sellers, but I have not seen the speculative sub-prime high risk buyers in this go around. I don’t see a crater like 2006.

      2. “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it.”
        Upton Sinclair, I, Candidate for Governor

    5. I am seeing way more articles from a variety of unrelated outlets speaking of housing market due for downturn and economy in general headed full speed towards a brick wall – lots of discussion of the credit bubble and the massive debt the developed world has taken on. I have convinced my Wife to stay put and keep renting our small unit until prices come down in Boise.

  8. ‘What’s clear now is that the market is morphing, changing, as more listings combined with affordability issues give buyers a few bargaining tools,’ said M. Dean Vincent, chairman of the Santa Clarita Valley Division of the Southland Regional Association of Realtors.

    No, Realtor Boy, what’s clear is that we’re in the initial phases of a bursting housing bubble, and only Greater Fools and Knife Catchers are springing for these insanely overpriced shacks.

  9. “Bottom Line: Returning to a normal market is a good thing. However, after the zaniness of the last eleven years, it might feel strange. If you are going 85 miles per hour on a road with a 60 MPH speed limit and you see a police car ahead, you’re going to slow down quickly. But, after going 85 MPH, 60 MPH will feel like you’re crawling. It is the normal speed limit, yet, it will feel strange.”

    What a stupid, disingenuous analogy. Since 2009 the Fed created $15 trillion out of thin air and lavished this free gambling money on its investment banker cronies, enabling a speculative mania that exceeded all other financial bubbles in human history. Now the bubble has peaked, and is about to implode like a super-nova. Your realtor bullshit cannot obfuscate that reality.

  13. “A report from the SCTV News in California”

    I still laugh at this – does anyone remember the TV show (from Canada). Sounds about right

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