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There Are Open-House Signs On Every Corner

A report from the Los Angeles Daily News in California. “The San Fernando Valley’s real estate market pendulum is swinging toward home buyers, leaving sellers on the other end cautious these days, according to experts. ‘Buyers now have way more negotiating power,’ said Amanda Etcheverry, the chair of the association’s Santa Clarita Valley division. ‘While still early in the process with the housing shortage still providing sellers an edge, the market is giving buyers some advantages, especially as houses sit longer on the market, inventory grows slightly and many active listings report price reductions.'”

“Tim Johnson, the association’s chief executive officer, said prices had jumped so fast that many future home buyers were left behind. But after a 2018 that saw record high resale prices of homes, the tide seems to be changing. ‘We’ve hit a point where there may be downward pressure on prices,’ he said, ‘as the market shifts to the middle in an effort to regain buyers who have been priced out.'”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “Las Vegas home prices rose at one of the fastest rates in the country in 2018 amid a growing population and an improved job market. But at the same time, home sales tumbled, and the valley’s low inventory of available listings started swelling. Janet Carpenter is this year’s president of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors.”

“How was the year for sellers? If they priced their house well and it was clean and well-kept, they’d get multiple offers after just a couple days on the market. It was phenomenal. But again, that all seemed to change around late September. Things were starting to linger on the market, and there were fewer multiple offers.”

“Why was there this shift? First of all, I don’t think the salary base in Las Vegas could have sustained much more rapid growth in prices.”

“Did you see any indication that it was starting to shift to a buyer’s market? Not right off the top. It was not until people were coming in and going, ‘Wow, my house was really priced well, and we only got one offer.’ And I’m like, oh, that’s different. Another big shift that’s happened lately is, when the market was really hot, houses were selling before agents even did an open house. Now if you drive around on a Saturday or Sunday, there are open-house signs on every corner. In February, March, April of last year, that was not happening.”

“What are your expectations for prices and sales volume this year? I don’t have a crystal ball — I know everybody says that — but I think it will still be a little bit of a seller’s market, because we have so much industry and jobs moving into Las Vegas. Again, it will be the price point that makes a difference whether houses sit or whether they’re sold. This year I’d like to see it leaning just a tad toward a seller’s market. What I don’t want to see is a total shift to a buyer’s market, and houses sitting for months on end and not selling.'”

From New Jersey Advance Media. “The former estate of Charles Edison, the 42nd governor of New Jersey and Thomas Edison’s son, has been on-and-off the market since 2015. In the latest move to try and sell the 10,593-square foot Essex County home, the current owner dropped the listing price by $600,000 Friday, according to its Zillow listing. It is now price at just under $3.4 million.”

“The home is about half a mile from the Edison National Historic site and only 14 miles from Manhattan. Including Edison, there have only been three owners of the home since it was built, according to its listing. It last sold for $3.7 million in August 2007. Before it went on the market in May 2018, the home was on the market for $5.9 million from December 2015 until February 2017.”

From Greenwich Time in Connecticut. “The price of Round Hill Manor, one of the town’s most-expensive single-family listings and former home of the late hotel magnate Leona Helmsley, has been cut by about $6.5 million.”

“The reduction represents the latest of several discounts on the 40-acre backcountry property, at 521 Round Hill Road, which is now listed at $22.5 million after originally going on the market for nearly $50 million.”

“‘The price reduction was done to reflect an awareness of the current market conditions,’ said Bill Andruss who is the home’s lead listing agent. ‘Taking into account recent data points and comparable sales, we believe this new price will generate substantial interest and increase the amount of traffic.'”

“Following the 2007 death of Helmsley, the estate was originally listed for $125 million. It was then purchased in 2010 for $35 million. After returning several years later to the market for $49.9 million, the price was reduced by $10 million, then by another $11 million, before its latest decrease.”

“A number of other Greenwich mansions have also struggled to find buyers. Last year’s top seller, a 16,900-square-foot midcountry home at 110 Clapboard Ridge Road sold for $17.5 million — 50 percent less than its original asking price.”

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This Post Has 81 Comments

  1. ‘If they priced their house well and it was clean and well-kept, they’d get multiple offers after just a couple days on the market. It was phenomenal. But again, that all seemed to change around late September’

    Again, “phenomenal” stopped by a sharp reversal. Spells bubble pop.

    ‘Why was there this shift? First of all, I don’t think the salary base in Las Vegas could have sustained much more rapid growth in prices’

    We see this every day now from the UHS. “Oh, prices just got too high, people can’t afford it anymore!” Notice there was no mention of this back during the multiple offers – you had to roll with it.

    ‘What I don’t want to see is a total shift to a buyer’s market, and houses sitting for months on end and not selling’

    Cuz then you’ll be sweeping the office yourself, right Janet?

    1. Oh look, here again!

      ‘Tim Johnson said prices had jumped so fast that many future home buyers were left behind. But after a 2018 that saw record high resale prices of homes, the tide seems to be changing. ‘We’ve hit a point where there may be downward pressure on prices,’ he said, ‘as the market shifts to the middle in an effort to regain buyers who have been priced out.’

      But, shortage? Priced out forever? Prices can never be too high, can they Tim?

    2. ‘What I don’t want to see is a total shift to a buyer’s market, and houses sitting for months on end and not selling’

      Janet no one gives an F what you want. Go stock up on ramen and prepare for tough times. Your attitude will be what forces you into the soup lines and freeway side camping

    3. A key component of what price you are willing to pay today is your expectation of the value of the asset tomorrow. When RE is going up 7% a year and interest rates are 4% basically you should buy the most expensive house you can. That situation cannot persist however and once the market realizes that RE isn’t going up 7% a year the price you are willing to pay drops dramatically. In fact if you expect RE to go down a few % a year there is almost no price you should pay, rent instead.

      A key component of todays price is future expectation, once the expectation of appreciation is broken the price should drop pretty dramatically.

    4. If houses were flying off the shelves in a seller’s market, why not the same in a buyer’s market? More so, in fact. There is not a single buyer that HAS to buy, whereas there are plenty of sellers who HAVE to sell.

    1. Encinita$$$$ … Carl$$$$bad … Rancho $$$$$anta Fe … Fallbrook$$$ … Vi$$$ta … San Marco$$$ … $hall eye continue$?

  3. On the Oakland airport rental car shuttle this week. Two strangers were complaining about how their horrible realtors couldn’t sell their houses. Thinking up creative ways to explain their predicament. I was tempted to explain that every home will sell tomorrow if the price is right.

    1. House Calls: No action on sale of brother’s house

      Dear Edith: My brother passed away suddenly in September, and I have been named executrix of his estate. His estate includes a two-bedroom, two-bathroom adobe-style home in Apache Junction, Ariz.

      I hired a real estate agent off the internet promptly because the home has a sizable mortgage and all his family is in New York state. The agent seemed excited about the property at that time and set the price at $399,000.

      The house has not sold yet. I have lowered the price by $50,000. There are a lot of views on the computer, but they are not translating to showings or offers. All I hear from the agent is about the property’s shortcomings. She has yet to show the house herself!

      She knew this was an estate listing being sold as is, and yet her suggestions involve staging, raising the commission, cosmetic improvements … all costs I do not have the money to pay for.

      Every month this house is costing my family $2,000 in mortgage and utilities, not to mention the worry and stress of an empty house many states away. Is there any advice you can offer? — K.C.

      Answer: You don’t say what has been done to prepare the house for the market. If nothing at all, you may want to contact a company out there that does staging. You don’t want the full service, just to see what it will cost to tidy and polish the place.

      Have you done your own research about the prices of comparable properties out there? After all, if you were to offer the place for $2, it’d sell immediately. Somewhere between $2 and $349,000 is an asking price that will move it promptly.

      That agent may have suggested an unreasonably high asking price just to get your business. If the listing is near expiration, change agents. If it has a while to run, you have the right to cancel. The agent might ask for money spent on the property — mostly advertising — though few ever do.

      If you have confidence in a local real estate agent, you can ask him or her to suggest a replacement broker out there. Or you can consult someone where you are who’s with a national firm. The local agent will end up with a referral fee, but it won’t cost anything extra, and you’ll have someone nearby to consult for advice. Or you can search online for an agent in Apache Junction who’s already offering property near your brother’s.

      https://www.greensboro.com/life/house-calls-no-action-on-sale-of-brother-s-house/article_29125fc8-d2a3-5c76-adf7-6525b17551ec.html

      1. She knew this was an estate listing being sold as is, and yet her suggestions involve staging, raising the commission, cosmetic improvements … all costs I do not have the money to pay for.

        Another “client” discovers her realtor has an endless list of “recommendations” calculated to line her pockets and those of her REIC partners in crime, while fleecing the marks who signed up for their “services.”

        1. “Another ‘client’ discovers her realtor has an endless list of ‘recommendations’ calculated to line her pockets and those of her REIC partners in crime, while fleecing the marks who signed up for their ‘services.'”

          Bahahahahaha … you use what works. In this case what was used were words. Words were used because words are cheap.

          In this case the words did not work. Oh, well, maybe the next time.

          Sorta like chumming for fish.

        2. This is a great point. If a RE agent finds a seller that they know is going to price unrealistically high, which means no commission, then why not make some money selling staging services, home upgrades, etc.

    2. Hard to bite your tongue when hearing people talk about something as a shock when we are fully aware. Get used to it, many more will be vocalizing there puzzled talks. Hard to believe that RE could actually go down or that the days of bidding and dream prices have come to an end

  4. I love to delve in how words, the use of words, describes reality for many people. For example …

    “While still early in the process with the housing shortage still providing sellers an edge, the market is giving buyers some advantages, especially as houses sit longer on the market, inventory grows slightly and many active listings report price reductions.”

    The use of the term “housing shortage” here implies that there is a physical shortage of houses. What is really meant is that there is a shortage of houses for sale.

    Note: One term, a “housing shortage”, describes a physical state while the other term, a “shortage of houses for sale”, describes a psychological state. The first state takes a long time go alter, not so for the second term.

    It benifits many people to use the first term for their own purposes because of its persuasive power hence this is the term that is used.

    Another term that amuses me is the term “homeowner”. A puke that borrows money from a lender in order to buy a home is not a “homeowner”, instead he is a “homebuyer”. The distinction between the two terms is important; Stop making payments to the lender and the homebuyer just may discover how important this distinction can become.

    But, nevertheless, homeowners are what most home buying pukes really believe themselves to be and thus they will work hard and they will spend lots of money in order to maintain a home that, inreality, belongs to somebody else.

    Most amusing.

    1. Furthur amusements …

      Let’s look up in the Net the term “home equity” …

      “Home equity is a homeowner’s interest in a home. It can increase over time if the property value increases or the mortgage loan balance is paid down. Put another way, home equity is the portion of your property that you truly “own.”

      “If the property value increases” really means “If people you do not know decide to pay high prices for houses that are comparable to yours that happen to be located in the same neighborhood”.

      If these people-you-do-not-know decide AND ARE ABLE to pay higher and higher prices then your home equity grows higher and higher. If these same people-you-do-not-know decide that they will OR ARE ONLY ABLE to pay lower prices then your home equity will decline.

      It really is that simple. Which brings up a favorite and memorable quote eliminated by a FB about ten years ago which goes like this:

      “It was my equity that I cashed out. I don’t see why I should have to give it back.”

      Dumb ’em down, and profit.

      😁

      1. “Home equity” is a fairytale. It’s a fictitious asset used by bankers to lend more money to ignorant pukes that allows them to buy junk like ATVs, RVs, jet skis, Escalades and vacations to Cabo. Enjoy your ball and chain you dumb pukes.

        1. “Home equity” is a fairytale. It’s a fictitious asset used by bankers to lend more money to ignorant pukes that allows them to buy junk like ATVs, RVs, jet skis, Escalades and vacations to Cabo.”

          Correct. And entire segments of our debt-fueled consumer-based economy depends on millions of totally dumbed-down ignorant pukes buying jnto this fairytale. Killing the fairytale and allowing ugly reality to set in will destroy this debt-fueled consumer-based economy.

          A nation of fools.

        2. Have we ever heard of someone cashing out their equity to pay off all their’s and the kids student loans? Or prepaying college?

      3. I was always amazed in the previous bubble when Bush was talking about how much “home ownership” had increased on his watch. What I saw instead was a reduction of “ownership” as every-freaking-body HELOCed the crap out of their house to but stuff. You could see charts clearly showing equity was decreasing while “ownership” loosely defined was increasing.

    2. Well said Mr Banker. The spin on the “housing shortage” / FOMO to get a home before being priced out forever is ridiculous. My neighbor whom is a realtor got mad at me during a conversation where she stated she was a home owner. When I asked if she owned it outright and she replied no, I said would that make The bank the true “owner”? Anyway that one didn’t end well along with her not agreeing that RE is declining (she says the RE here can’t fall because of proximity to sillycon valley). To each there own was my response. That conversation was months ago and havent talked to her since, I am sure she has too much pride to engage now knowing, or possibly not knowing, that we are in a bit of a RE downturn…

      1. I’ve used this tactic when talking to “owners” who feel free to say condescending things to me (a lowly renter) like “you are throwing your money away on rent”, “renting is just paying someone else’s mortgage”, “you’ll never build equity if you rent”, “how long are you going to stay in that apartment”. Yadda yadda yadda. I might venture to ask how much of their mortgage payment is going to the interest and how much to the principal and if they have a 30 year mortgage, how much does the home end up actually costing over that time frame if they factor in mortgage interest, etc?

        Well, none of this matters because they, being naturally superior beings, don’t “rent”, my goodness they “own” except until they actually own it outright they do technically “rent” from the bank or mortgage lender.

    3. “I love to delve in how words, the use of words, describes reality for many people. For example …”

      My favorite, “troubled.”

      Many banks are working with their commercial real estate borrowers to rehabilitate “troubled” loans by modifying the terms.

  6. This weekend I see multiple open houses on many streets here in Laguna Niguel. Not something I have seen before.

    1. Let’s check the $core = “True.Deciever$” 0 … Ben Jones HBB 1,404 +

      Po$$ible explanation$:

      Home $ales dive 14% in Lake Fore$t, Mi$$ion Viejo, Rancho $anta Margarita, $an Juan Capistrano
      August-to-November sales: 1,835 vs. 2,138 a year earlier, a decline of 14.2 percent.

      “Once primetime $elling $eason ended in Orange County this summer, hou$e hunter$ balked. That created the slowest-selling August-to-November period in $even year$. Culprit$ were high price$ and expen$ive mortgage$. Meanwhile, homeowner$ and builder$ boosted the $upply of re$idences for $ale.”

      Jonathan Lansner |Orange County Register
      PUBLISHED: January 26, 2019

      1. Nice Hwy! Jan 30 dec pending home sales report comes out. What$ yer prediction$ on that? Gov $hutdown a root cau$e of the plunging $ale$??

        1. “Gov $hutdown a root cau$e of the plunging $ale$?? ”

          Nix, nix, nix … Price$ to dam $ky.high & knot enough entry level job$ $tarting @ $97,486 U$ dollars!

          Oh wait, wage$ inflation$ might make the Elmer.Dudd$ @ thee.Fed.CentralCa$ting … to rai$e intere$t rate$ …I

          My $ubtle prediction$: Thee Powell’$ Put$ $tays until May …

  7. OT regarding the Fake News media: funny how the Covington Catholic scripted outrage has come full circle, from online death threats against teenz in MAGA hats to the big reveal that this narrative is total bullsh*t, and one week later, the announcement of mass layoffs at Buzzfeed News and the Huffington Post.

    “Real Journalists” (who in the past three days have been virtue signalling and begging for jobs on Twitter), meet Real Ramen, maybe go drive some Real Uber, or learn to code and get a Real Job, LOLZ.

  10. The local agent will end up with a referral fee, but it won’t cost anything extra, and you’ll have someone nearby to consult for advice.

    What a crock. Those fees will always be passed along to both the buyer and the seller. Realtors are out to get their cut coming and going. Consulting such sharks for “advice” is going to have a predictable outcome: whatever puts more money in the realtor’s pocket will always determine any “recommendations” they offer.

  11. I like the Warren plan to tax the wealthiest 75k people. I pay a boatload of prop taxes on my biggest asset (my home) they should too. Hoarders are not good for the economy and the nat debt is crushing us.

    1. “Hoarders are not good for the economy and the nat debt is crushing us.”

      “Hoarders”. Another name for “hoarder” is “saver”.

      Should the war on savers morph into a war on hoarders? Will a war on hoarders morph into a war on savers?

      1. At what point does wealth “owned” by a person actually become owned by a person?

        Does wealth ever become owned by a person? Is wealth really owned if a multitude of strangers are able to vote in such a way as to be able to just take it away?

        1. Utilizing wealth$ & rule.of.law.contract$ … are implement$ to overcoming having to “own” anything.

    2. Hoarders are not good for the economy

      Debt is an insidious and pervasive evil. It lusts to have what it cannot pay for. It is a very small step from this to taking from its neighbors what they have obtained honestly.

      1. $peaking of taking, in the same paragraph as: “in$idious and perva$ive evil.”

        U$ury is the practice of making unethical or immoral monetary loan$ that unfairly enrich the lender$. Originally, usury meant intere$t of any kind. A loan may be considered usuriou$ because of exce$$ive or abu$ive interest rate$ or other factor$. Hi$torically, in some Chri$tian $ocieties, and in many I$lamic societies$ even today, charging any interest at all would be considered usury. $omeone who practice$ usury can be called a usurer, but a more common term in contemporary English is loan $hark.

        1. In some medieval Christian societies, selling a commodity for more than one paid for it, was as immoral as usury. It was “unfair”.

      2. Now we are getting philosophical. Taxes are the price we pay to live in a civilized society. When you get creative tax dodgers you get “The Hidden Wealth of Nations.” When we get a certain tax non-compliance you start to get the break down of society.

        1. Taxes are the price we pay to live in a civilized society.

          That’s dismissive and evasive, since you are advocating taxing someone else, not yourself.

    3. A tax on wealthy at $1 or 2 MM was also discussed.

      If they tax wealth at 1-2 MM alot of wealth is going to disappear into the black market, different countries and worthless crap line beanie babies.

      Dumbest idea ever!!!

  12. Open house signs on every corner? check.

    I was posting here seeing exactly that over the holiday weekend, and it continues. I noticed yesterday, there were now multiple open house signs at the intersection by pioneer park (the only stop sign for a couple miles). Online, the total numbers of active listings in the city is down compared to last summer or fall, but the visible signs and adverts in the mail are way up.

    No surprise to anyone here that ‘suddenly’ it’s taking actual effort and time as the homes are no longer ‘just selling themselves’. Prices remain sticky, listings expected to linger.

    1. Same down here in the Bay Area but you witnessed that first hand during your visit. The greedheads in my local have been doing some screwy things with the listings such as lowering the price after there shack sits unsold then pulling it off the market then relisting after 30 days so it’s new again but then increasing the price…

      A good example is this one which was pulled off dec 2018 after sitting for almost a year. The price history does not show any thing pre dec 2018

      https://www.redfin.com/CA/Santa-Cruz/3280-Winkle-Ave-95065/home/148411165

      1. Yup. I didn’t get to see a lot when I was at GoogHQ, but I did see a couple signs. All the locals were very eager to bitch about the housing situation – took almost zero prodding.

        That listing is … interesting. New Construction, with an ADU that is built into the structure instead of detached, and 5 bedrooms in 2500 sq ft. Talk about “airbnb + paying roommate ready”. I’m guessing that’s all the hotness these days.

        While I was down there last month, I rang up an old roommate of mine from my single days in Texas who was back living in Mountain View after a stint up here working for Bezos. After divorcing, he and his ex (they have 1 kids) had gotten back together to buy and live in a house there in MV, and they are renting out all the extra rooms in order to make the purchase work.

        1. “had gotten back together to buy and live in a house there in MV, and they are renting out all the extra rooms in order to make the purchase work.”

          Sounds like they bought at the peak or near it and even if making a good income, still need that extra $ to cover the inflated price of the home. I personally would rather rent and pay the same or even more than buy with the looming fear that I need assistance to cover my mortgage. To each there own though!

          1. Yeah, they would have bought in the last 2.5 years, so top $ in silly valley.

            It’s just telling that they have turn around run it like a hotel to make the payments.

        2. “…gotten back together to buy and live in a house…”

          You never EVER go back to an ex, and then buy a house too?

          1. You never EVER go back to an ex, and then buy a house too?

            Yeah. Their breakup was… weird. And I don’t think there was a lot of hard feelings… unlike 97% of divorces where someone would rather amputate a limb than go back to an ex.

    1. Few things are more heartwarming to me than seeing Real Journalists at MSM outlets like Buzzfeed and HuffPo being cast into the outer darkness of our oligarch-looted economy as more and more “woke” readers refuse to pay for DNC talking points and globalist propaganda.

    1. Hmmmm … from the net…

      “pop·u·lism”
      noun
      “a political approach that strives to appeal to ordinary people who feel that their concerns are disregarded by established elite groups.”

      Also from the net …

      “e·lit·ism”
      noun
      “the advocacy or existence of an elite as a dominating element in a system or society.”

      Q. Of the two systems described above, populism or elitism, which one come closest to describing democracy?

      Hint: Here’s a description of democracy …

      “de·moc·ra·cy”
      noun
      “a system of government by the whole population or all the eligible members of a state, typically through elected representatives.”

  17. I stop by this site multiple times a week, I find the content helpful and interesting.

    I often find the comments just as helpful. I do however find the movoto spam links, the person who lost his s key, and the Realtors are liars guy to be greatly distracting from what otherwise would be useful conversation.

      1. Realtors are liars.

        This isn’t Reddit. I have met and bought a beer for this humble blog host, who bravely publishes content that challenges the prevailing real estate narrative.

        If you don’t like the truth about your now non-existent equity, the city-data forums and Reddit are back that way 🙁

    3. “I do however find the movoto spam links, the person who lost his s key, and the Realtors are liars guy to be greatly distracting from what otherwise would be useful conversation.”

      If you want to take your mind off of significant and minor distractions presented by this blog or presented anywhere else just drop by my bank and ask my minimum-wage-with-no-hope-of-benefits-whatsoever (or, better yet, ask any of my work-for-free interns) for …

      (ta da)

      … The Dotted Line Special!

      All minor and insignificant annoyances will – presto! – suddenly vanish from your consciousness.

      Guaranteed.

      😁

    4. the person who lost his s key

      We all find occasions to count our blessings, happening upon one more unfortunate than ourselves.

      1. I come here daily to enjoy the discourse.

        I come here daily and I enjoy and appreciate the Realtors are liars guy, the guy with the missing S key, and the guy with the clever quips that accompany his movoto spam links.

        Please don’t stop, ever….

  18. Sometimes I wish I lived in a medieval Christian society – no realtors. I think I’ll tell the next realtor that I’ll buy if he/she can recite the first 200 lines of Piers Plowman.

  20. Oasis — You Gotta Roll With It:

    Where’s the part of the song where Caitlyn/Caitlin in Portland, OR decides it’s not worth it anymore, but realizes that home ownership (loan ownership) in Portland, OR is no longer possible on a single income?

  23. inventory lowest ever here in 22151 s of soviet,powered by dod $ infusion
    par is 40 in my zip
    down to 24?

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