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Many Of These Listings Were Repriced And Relisted As Sellers Become Increasingly Motivated To Attract Buyers

A report from CNBC. “Just because the Federal Reserve is nearing its inflation goal doesn’t mean the problem is solved. Fed Chair Jerome Powell, in his annual policy speech at the Jackson Hole, Wyoming summit this August, joked about ‘the good ship Transitory’ and all the passengers it had in the early days of the inflation run-up. Obviously, inflation wasn’t transitory, and the all-items CPI reading is up 18.8% since then. Food inflation has surged 22%. Eggs are up 87%, auto insurance has soared almost 47% and gasoline, though on a downward trajectory these days, is still up 16% from then. And, of course, there’s housing: The median home price has jumped 16% since Q1 of 2021 and 30% from the beginning of the pandemic-fueled buying frenzy.”

The Times of San Diego in California. “A draft city report shows that the median value of a home in City Heights, Kensington-Talmadge, Normal Heights and Eastern Area was $723,000 in 2022, the most recent data cited. In 2000, it was nearly $150,000, making for a 384% increase over the two decades. Meanwhile, the area’s median income during that time grew from $32,000 to $77,000 — a 142% increase. The numbers tell a familiar story: It’s becoming more expensive to live in San Diego. For Mid-City, in particular, that’s especially true. Its home values have nearly quadrupled — yet the neighborhoods’ incomes remain lower than the citywide median.”

Fox Business. “Wildfires have burned more than one million acres in California so far this year. ‘Our premiums more than doubled, but our coverage was cut in half. So, this was the perfect storm of bad,’ said Steve Archer, president of the HOA for his community in La Cañada Flintridge, California. Farmers Insurance has covered the community for two decades. But in July, the company called it quits. That left the community scrambling for coverage. ‘We’ve seen some people’s insurance go from $2,000 to $6,000 a year for their homeowner’s policy, some to eight. And these aren’t big houses. These are kind of normal,’ said Rick Dinger, president of Crescenta Valley Insurance.”

Yahoo Finance.”New listings rose by 25% or more last month compared to a year earlier in the Seattle, Silicon Valley, Denver, and Washington, D.C., areas, according to Realtor.com. Troy Khuu, a San Jose-based agent, said the most desirable homes in his market — ones that are updated, located in strong school districts, and close to tech companies — are still selling above their asking price, sometimes in a matter of days. But buyers aren’t rushing to buy homes that don’t meet all of their specifications, he said. ‘It’s no longer the buying frenzy we saw a few years ago,’ Khuu said. ‘It depends on the listing. It depends on the price.'”

National Public Radio. “You might expect that mortgage rates would be falling right now after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-point last month. Instead, mortgage rates jumped higher. ‘I think the new normal is maybe 6% mortgage rate,’ says Lawrence Yun, the chief economist at the National Association of Realtors. ‘If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or if we are unlucky, maybe the mortgage rate trends back up towards 7%.’ But Yun is confident one of thing: The days of 3% and 4% mortgage rates are over — at least in his lifetime, he says. Meanwhile, the days a house stays on the market have been increasing — suggesting the market is getting a bit less competitive. ‘I think there is more opportunity for buyers to get in there,’ says Sara Briseño Gerrish, a real estate agent at RE/MAX Unlimited in San Antonio.”

Market Watch. “Dear Big Move, My husband lost his job and we can no longer make the mortgage. I have zero savings. We already missed our first payment. What happens now? What do we tell the lender? Will we lose our home? Stressed Out. Dear Stressed, You are going through a turbulent time. You are not out of options, but you need to take action now. There are hundreds of thousands of people in the same boat who are collecting unemployment benefits, meaning that they do not have a job. You’re not off the hook just because you’re not able to pay the bills: ‘A lot of times people think that they just get to skip payments, but it does not work that way and, ultimately, there is a bill to pay,’ Jennifer Beeston, a Coral Springs, Fla.-based senior vice president of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate.”

“So what can you do now? Call your mortgage servicer. They will be able to find forbearance options for you. Forbearance is a process where the lender can temporarily pause mortgage payments, or you can make smaller payments. It doesn’t erase or decrease the amount you owe, and you’ll have to repay missed or reduced payments. But it buys you time. Your loan servicer will also be able to advise you on whether you should do a loan modification. If you need more information about the foreclosure process, the Department of Housing and Urban Development has a timeline here, although the process varies by state.”

‘You miss your first payment, your lender contacts you. You miss your second payment, and you talk to your lender. You miss your third payment, and your loan is now delinquent. But you can still work out a plan with your lender at that point. When you miss your fourth payment, you should figure something out. If you have not paid the full amount or worked out an arrangement, your lender’s attorneys will get involved. That attorney will schedule a sale, which is the actual day of foreclosure. It’s not the move-out date, HUD says, ‘but the end is near’ at this point. Your last resort is selling the property and moving to a cheaper rental, or even with family temporarily. Selling the house allows you to pay off that mortgage in full, unless you owe more on your balance than before — meaning that the loan is underwater.”

Bisnow Washington DC. “The majority of the D.C. Council has thrown its support behind a bill introduced this week that would increase the city’s authority to seize vacant and blighted properties while incentivizing owners to reinvest in their properties or sell to someone who will. ‘I think it’s good to see that the council is recognizing that landlords in D.C. are struggling,’ Feldman Ruel Managing Principal Ian Ruel, who brokers investment sales in the District, told Bisnow. ‘A lot of them are struggling, and a lot of those landlords are not the big institutional owners — they’re mom and pops,’ he added. ‘So I think any relief right now is a positive, at least in the short term.'”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “Denver native Keith Oelschlager has been going to Larimer Square since he was a teenager in the 1980s. It was the place where people in the neighborhood would hang out and shop. For him, that isn’t the case anymore. ‘I think it’s missing anything that makes me want to spend any time there,’ Oelschlager said. ‘You have tourists walking down the street, and they’re taking pictures of the flags and lines and things that are kind of hanging up in the street, and then they just kind of leave. And most of the time, there’s just not that much going on.'”

“The historic shopping district, like many retail-heavy areas, was hit hard by the pandemic shutdown and subsequent spending malaise. Bringing workers back into downtown’s offices would also provide a boost to business. ‘Without people in offices, you don’t do any lunch business and you don’t do any happy hour business because there are no bodies to come in for lunch and happy hour,’ said John Imbergamo, who has been a Denver restaurant consultant for over 30 years. ‘That just, you know, tore a hole through the fabric of the economics of restaurants in downtown, and continues to do that, to some extent.'”

From Guelph Today. “Ontario home prices were stable in September by comparison with August, continuing a trend of broad stability set in February, figures released by the Canadian Real Estate Association show. On a year-over-year basis, the average single-family home in the province sold for $954,000 in September, down 4.5 per cent from the average of $999,500 they sold for in September of 2023. On a province-wide basis, prices for condos in a year-over-year comparison fell 7.8 per cent, and townhouses fell 5.7 per cent. ‘The beginning of September saw a burst of new supply for buyers to choose from before things generally quiet down for the winter,’ CREA chair James Mabey said.”

“Locally in the Guelph area in September, single-family house prices were down 7.4 per cent, condos were down 1.0 per cent, and townhouses were down 4.2 per cent compared to September of 2023, using seasonally adjusted numbers unadjusted for inflation. Use the interactive below to explore your region.”

The Stratford Beacon Herald in Canada. “A record number of homes came on the market in Chatham-Kent last month as residential sales ‘maintained (a) strong showing,’ the area realtors’ association says. September’s 275 new residential listings were a record for the month, jumping 37.5 per cent from September 2023, the association said. New listings were nearly 30 per cent above the five-year average and 44.4 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of September. ‘The other major story was with new listings, which set the highest level on record by far of any September in history and marking the first time new listings had surpassed 250 in this month,’ association president Carrie Patrick said. ‘However, with overall inventories rising but not reporting as impressive of a spike, it is likely that many of these listings were repriced and relisted as sellers become increasingly motivated to attract buyers.'”

Real Estate News Exchange in Canada. “In what has been described as an ‘innovative’ financial deal, two mortgage companies have partnered to buy a Kitchener, Ont. condo tower project out of receivership and restart the stalled building process. The Elevate project fell into financial difficulties about 18 months ago but was recently purchased by mortgage lender Dorr Capital, alternative investment firm Gentai Capital, and builder ELM Developments, which will facilitate the project’s resumption. The original project failed due to cost overruns combined with poor market conditions, Brian Dorr, president of Dorr Capital, told RENX. ‘I think our borrower didn’t have the fortune of good timing in terms of the way the market was going, as many projects in our market are experiencing, and I think he ran into some cost overrun issues and scope issues at the same moment that the market was contracting and lending became incredibly tight, and he didn’t have the ability to hold on.'”

The Northern Echo in the UK. “Residents on new-build estates in Stockton are being ‘left in limbo’ with essential infrastructure incomplete – despite coughing up fees for upkeep and council tax on top. It came after those living on several estates raised the alarm after paying council tax plus fees to private management companies for basic upkeep – despite them remaining unfinished. One resident of an anonymous Stockton estate told Stockton North MP Chris McDonald: ‘The roads haven’t been completed in four years; the developer has relinquished responsibility and accountability for the work. Residents feel they were mis-sold their contracts.'”

“New build estate management fees, also known as ‘fleecehold’, have crept in across the last two decades and is now an ‘industry norm,’ according to Paula Higgins, who is the founder of the HomeOwners Alliance. The fees usually cover the maintenance of any communal areas – from pavements and car parks to play areas – and are often charged when buying a new-build property. Residents also pay council tax on top of this.”

Radio New Zealand. “It could take at least five years for recent first-home buyers to regain the equity in their homes, if they had it wiped out by falling prices, CoreLogic says. House prices are still about 16 percent below their 2021 market peak. CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said there were about 3500 households that had bought at the peak and now had homes that were worth 20 percent or more less than they paid. In most cases, first-home buyers have about 20 percent deposit – or less – so that meant that thousands had their deposits wiped out. ‘Interestingly this would be relatively similar to the recovery from the GFC where I believe it took about seven years for the market to return back to the peak of 2007. With a larger fall this time around, particularly in places like Auckland and Wellington, it wouldn’t surprise me to take longer this time around.'”

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This Post Has 110 Comments

  1. ‘Use the interactive below to explore your region’

    A lot of papers out there use this graphic. Check out the a$$ pounding these igloo clusters have taken since minor respiratory illness.

  2. ‘We’ve seen some people’s insurance go from $2,000 to $6,000 a year for their homeowner’s policy, some to eight. And these aren’t big houses. These are kind of normal’

    They may not even have driveways Rick, so you have to park the El Camino in the front yard like they do in La Jolla.

    1. ** “They may not even have driveways Rick, so you have to park the El Camino in the front yard like they do in La Jolla.”

      El Camino’s are for the trailer trash set: Ranchero is the only way to drive over to the bowling alley to see Walter, Donnie & The Dude !

  4. ‘If we are lucky, maybe we get to 5.5% mortgage rate. Or if we are unlucky, maybe the mortgage rate trends back up towards 7%.’ But Yun is confident one of thing: The days of 3% and 4% mortgage rates are over — at least in his lifetime’

    That would fook the rate daters Larry.

    2. Ima float dis out to y’all. What’d happen if WE confiscated while in some way giving dem some sort of tax break, exemption or benefit in return, 300billion from all the billionaires collectively, in US (around 300mil) and gave everyones 1million each.

      What would happen?

        1. Ok sure but what is the number then? (and what would happen IF it was possible is what i want to know) 1million x 300 million = 300 billion, no?

  5. ‘A lot of times people think that they just get to skip payments, but it does not work that way and, ultimately, there is a bill to pay,’ Jennifer Beeston, a Coral Springs, Fla.-based senior vice president of mortgage lending at Guaranteed Rate.”

    The 2008 housing bubble bust showed that FBs could squat in place for months or years without paying their mortgages before being evicted. Mortgage lenders who drove up shack prices by financing shacks for the manifestly non-credit worthy deserve to get stiffed by FBs.

  7. ‘That just, you know, tore a hole through the fabric of the economics of restaurants in downtown, and continues to do that, to some extent.’”

    Denver’s libtard restaurant owners were zealous proponents of denying service to the unvaxxed and forcing employees to get the jab. Going out of business is exactly what they deserve.

        1. It’s a lean-to sleeping platform. Protected from rain and prevailing winds from the west, but intentionally open to prevent packrats from building nests.

          The (non-mobile) RV trailer I bought in June for a tool shed is already full of packrat sh*t. Bringing a gallon of Mighty Mint rodent repellent next weekend to spray it out, demo out all the cabinetry I don’t need and add them to the burn pile.

    2. I get cubicle dwellers drinking the kool aid, as many, if not most, are libtards. Most of my colleagues tripped over each other to get the jab and the boosters. One actually drove 2 hours to get it.

      But it surprises me that restauranteurs, who are small businessowners in a field that is tough and competitive even in good times and who should be very familiar with City Hall’s heavy hand that makes it hard to turn a profit, would be libtards; but there you have it.

      1. The tiny handful of restaurant owners in Denver who were shut down because of their defiance of arbitrary, capacious lockdown and vaxx mandates received zero support from their fellow Denver restaurant proprietors who were eager to be Big Brother’s Little Helpers. So if the latter are being driven out of business en masse due to the massive destruction that scamdemic-era government overreach inflicted on the local economy, that is poetic justice for their craven subservience to Democrat-Bolshevik control freak “mandates.”

  8. CoreLogic head of research Nick Goodall said there were about 3500 households that had bought at the peak and now had homes that were worth 20 percent or more less than they paid.

    But the REIC shills in the globalist scum media all assured me that buying a shack is the only way to build “generational wealth.”

  10. “Selling the house allows you to pay off that mortgage in full, unless you owe more on your balance than before — meaning that the loan is underwater.”

    Wait,…what? That never happens, right?

    1. How many FBs who have lost their jobs and are unable to cover the monthly mortgage payments have the financial wherewithal to bring enough money to the table to unload their underwater shacks? Note the “advice” from the benevolent lender never mentioned the possibility of a short sale.

      1. Having to bring a check to closing must be a real bummer.

        The only other option is to wait until you get kicked out.

        1. Most FBs couldn’t bring a check to closing even if they wanted to. I expect we’ll see FBs rejecting the “advice” of lenders and instead forming communities on line to figure out how to game the system while squatting in “their” shacks awaiting eviction. Who knew that creating moral hazard by rewarding deadbeat behavior through “student loan forgiveness” and other state-sponsored parasitism would end up biting lenders & the financial system.

  11. Establishment GOP corporate stooge in Nebraska is in danger of being unseated by a (notionally) independent challenger highlighting her toadying for corporate interests. Is the electorate finally realizing that “Republicans” who are craven toadies for the corrupt, crony capitalist status quo need to be booted from office?

    https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/a-tattooed-union-leader-is-threatening-to-topple-a-republican-senator-in-a-deep-red-state-229ed8b4

    1. “Dan Newhouse is an American politician and agricultural scientist serving as the U.S. Representative for Washington’s 4th congressional district since 2015. He is a member of the Republican Party.”

      There’s another RINO in my backyard.

  13. A reader sent these in:

    In September 43% of independent restaurants couldn’t pay rent, and 48% of small business renters overall were behind on payments, the highest rate in three years.

    Additionally, 43% of small businesses reported having one month or less of cash reserves on hand, a 14% increase from August.

    https://x.com/dedkatbouns/status/1847384165446291858

    ⛈️Amazon cloud boss says employees unhappy with 5-day office mandate can leave for another company

    https://x.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1847627945512145185

    Anyone with any sound analytical framework can easily infer what an absolutely abysmal r/r equities offer right now. The fact that the US got pillaged (federal deficit = private surplus) to juice those last % of nominal returns changes nothing to these facts.

    https://x.com/INArteCarloDoss/status/1847635130598240300

    Single-family permits and units under construction stabilized in September.

    Multi-family continues a harsh plunge.

    https://x.com/EPBResearch/status/1847258134265438604

    The United States does not have a tax problem. The United States has a spending problem.

    https://x.com/jameslavish/status/1847679085138370729

    LA TIMES EDITORIAL TELLING IT LIKE IT IS!

    As I said before: “We’re NOT in a recession. This is NOT COVID. This is a Budget Deficit that we made here in CITY HALL” 💰

    https://x.com/lacontroller/status/1847322480224174190

    My friend told me he and his wife live paycheck to paycheck.

    I don’t believe it because they both are high earners in tech, and he even works for Google. But after doing a little bit of math, I found out he didn’t lie.

    • Mortgage: $17,000/month for a $3M home
    • Property Tax: $3,000/month
    • Private School: $3,000/month for 1 kid
    • Travel: $2,000/month (assuming $20k/year)
    • Utilities: $1,000/month
    • Groceries: $2,000/month
    • Eating Out: $1,000/month
    • 2 cars: $1,000/month

    So in total $30k per month, not including other misc costs like house maintenance, paying for Netflix, etc.

    W-2 employees usually take home only 50% of their salary, so they have to make $60k per month pretax, which is $720k in annual TC.

    What’s the point of living a life like this?

    https://x.com/damengchen/status/1847497431380099385

    1) It’s the mortgage.
    2) It’s the property tax that comes with the mortgage.
    3) It’s paying for private school after you pay property taxes that pay for public school.

    All done.

    https://x.com/GayBearRes/status/1847653918265790923

    Ontario universities face $1 billion loss as federal cap on international students devastates enrollment and finances.

    https://x.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1847646285928575056

    73% of Amazon workers are considering quitting after a 5 day a week in-office mandate

    This is according to a survey of ~2,500 Amazon employees on anonymous job review site, Blind

    https://x.com/TripleNetInvest/status/1847631167413244321

    Ponzi schemes need a constant flow of NEW money to survive.

    Without first time buyers the whole thing collapses.

    https://x.com/igetredpilled/status/1847434414193594438

    Exactly 8 years ago:

    https://x.com/EndWokeness/status/1847305891017830647

    GTA condo sales at 30-yr low, inventory of new units continues to grow. YTD sales annualize to 4,500 units. With over 110,000 new units either 4sale (24k) or under construction (89k),
    it’s about 25 years of supply. And that’s before we count units for resale.

    https://x.com/hmacbe/status/1847678458752881038

    Toronto & Vancouver Are Now The Weakest Real Estate Markets In Canada

    https://x.com/BetterDwelling/status/1847361507702837470

    A $575 million loan backed by a 12-property, multifamily portfolio defaulted at its October 2024 maturity

    Property Type: Multifamily
    Portfolio Size: 3,030 units
    Number of Properties: 12
    Property States: GA, FL, MA, NC, SC, and TX

    Deal Type: Single Borrower/Large Loan
    Current Loan Balance: $575.0M ($189,769/unit)
    Payment Status: Performing Matured
    SS/WL: Watchlist

    Maturity Date: Oct 2024
    Extension Options: 3, one-year options

    DSCR: 0.91
    Occ: 93.8%
    UW Valuation (Aug 2021): $809.20M ($267,073/unit)

    https://x.com/cred_iq/status/1847691510050861372

    He wouldn’t stop saying, “Krugman is right about the economy and the people are wrong.”

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1847311509698805799

    “Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee flagged the potential for insufficient price growth in a Bloomberg interview last week: “if you look at [consumer] expectations, there are some signs that inflation might undershoot the 2% target, and we want to be mindful of that too.”

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1846640101629350183

    What’s the investment outlook if Lucifer Everylove wins?

    https://x.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1847365738270793998

    Final numbers for fiscal year 2024

    Total US govt revenue = $4.918 trillion
    Interest on natl debt = $1.133 trillion
    23% of all govt revenue went to interest on the debt.

    2025 fiscal year started Oct 1st, we are on pace for 30% of all govt revenue going to interest payments.

    https://x.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1847441528534303130

    1. “48% of small business renters overall were behind on payments, the highest rate in three years”

      Paul Krugman muh best economy ever.

    2. Additionally, 43% of small businesses reported having one month or less of cash reserves on hand, a 14% increase from August.

      This is catastrophic. The MSM grudgingly reports when corporate America has mass layoffs, but rarely covers the plight small businesses are in and ignores the fact that most people work at a small business.

    3. The United States does not have a tax problem. The United States has a spending problem.

      And spending money you don’t have is like an addiction, it’s hard as rocks to kick, especially since the economy is hopelessly dependent of deficit spending. It seems clear that the PTB have chosen inflation over austerity.

    4. Ontario universities face $1 billion loss as federal cap on international students devastates enrollment and finances.

      Gotta love how everything the Left touches becomes unsustainable.

    5. 73% of Amazon workers are considering quitting after a 5 day a week in-office mandate

      They should take a looksie at glassdoor, which is chockfull of tales of woe from techies who can’t find work.

      1. It used to be fun telling Real Journalists getting axed from failing globalist scum propaganda outlets to learn to code – same “advice” they gave to Appalachia coal miners losing their jobs due to Biden regime green energy policies. Now that Tech Bubble 2.0 is bursting, learning to code won’t help you earn a paycheck. Any suggestions, Paul Krugman?

      2. That’s what I was thinking. Where they gonna go? One of my workmate’s wife quit Adobe when they wouldn’t let her work remote any more. That was almost a year ago and she still hasn’t found work.

    6. there are some signs that inflation might undershoot the 2% target, and we want to be mindful of that too

      As if that has a snowball’s chance in hades of happening.

      1. Real Journalists who write such lies must feel like their counterparts in Soviet propaganda outlets like Pravda during the twilight days of the former Soviet Union, when the lies became so egregious that the State media pushing them lost all credibility. Now we have the internet and social media, which makes the MSM lies, omissions, and happy talk even more ludicrous.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Bloomberg
      Treasury Yields Climb as Strong Data Sow Doubt on Fed Rate Cuts
      Michael Mackenzie
      Thu, Oct 17, 2024, 2:00 PM PDT
      3 min read

      (Bloomberg) — US government bonds slumped after strong September retail-sales figures fanned doubts over how quickly the Federal Reserve will continue to lower interest rates.

      The selloff pushed Treasury yields higher by as much as seven to 10 basis points. Initially, short maturities led the move as traders trimmed bets that the US central bank will cut rates at its next several meetings, as most Wall Street banks have been predicting. Later, those yields retreated from session highs while 10- to 30-year rates continued to rise.

      “The market has been looking for continuing weaker economic data, and it has not been a consistent theme,” said Tom di Galoma, head of fixed income at Curvature Securities. While a November rate cut remains likelier than not in his assessment, “that view is waning with many market participants.”

      Swap contracts that aim to predict future Fed decisions priced in a total of about 41 basis points of easing over the November and December meetings, down from 45 basis points on Wednesday. The January contract has a cumulative 59 basis points of cuts priced in, showing some doubts about whether the Fed will lower rates at that meeting as well.

      On Thursday, a government report showed that September retail sales rose more than estimated and August levels were revised higher. Weekly initial jobless claims also unexpectedly declined, further eroding bond-market confidence that the economy is on the cusp of slowing.

      Long-maturity yields stabilized after a couple of large block trades in Treasury futures, involving the Ultra Bond contract, which tracks that segment of the market. The trades were done at prices suggesting they were initiated by buyers drawn to lower prices. Late in New York, a large block trade in December futures consistent with a sale, pushed the ultra-bond contract to fresh session lows and also steepened the curve to a session peak.

      The latest selloff in Treasuries leaves the market on course for its first monthly decline since April, as measured by a Bloomberg index.

      “Higher long-term growth absent a recession would portend higher long-term yields,” said George Catrambone, head of fixed income at DWS Americas. “There’s also been some election noise of betting odds favoring a Trump victory and term premium slowly working its way back into the market to further support bear steepening.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasury-yields-climb-strong-data-135832981.html

    2. Business
      Mortgage rates were supposed to come down. Instead, they’re rising. Here’s why
      October 18, 20246:00 AM ET
      Headshot of Laurel Wamsley
      Mortgage rates have ticked up recently despite the Federal Reserve’s recent rate cut.
      Brandon Bell/Getty Images

      You might expect that mortgage rates would be falling right now after the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a half-point last month.

      Instead, mortgage rates jumped higher. The latest data from Freddie Mac showed that the average 30-year mortgage rate had increased to 6.4%, more than a quarter-point higher than it was two weeks ago.

      The news is probably an unwelcome surprise to the folks who had been hoping for lower interest rates to finally come off the sidelines and start shopping for a home.

      Here’s what’s going on — and what it means for those trying to buy a home now.

      The Fed doesn’t set mortgage rates

      Here’s the thing: The Fed can influence mortgage rates but it doesn’t set them.

      Instead, mortgage rates mainly follow a different number: the yield on 10-year Treasury bonds. That yield has gone up recently for a number of reasons, including because investors are expecting the Fed to be a little more cautious in cutting rates after the jumbo-sized cut last month.

      But it’s not just the 10-year Treasury yield influencing mortgage rates.

      The mortgage lender needs to cover its costs and make a profit, so it adds its own percentage on top, for example. And the specific mortgage rate that you get will depend on your own factors, like your credit score and the size and type of loan you’re getting.

      That said, despite the recent uptick, mortgage rates are still more than a full point lower than they were this time last year, falling as investors anticipated the Fed’s rate cuts and factored those into the 10-year Treasury yield.

      The lower mortgage rates compared to a year ago have been good for some homeowners. Lots of people have taken advantage to refinance their mortgages if they bought their homes in the last couple of years, when rates were higher.

      The lower rates available now mean those homeowners can potentially save hundreds of dollars a month if they refinance.

      Where mortgage rates go from here

      So where are mortgage rates headed? That’s difficult to answer, since mortgage rates are affected by so many factors.

      But there’s one thing that experts generally agree on: They likely won’t go anywhere near the levels of a few years go.
      …
      https://www.npr.org/2024/10/18/g-s1-28576/mortgage-rates-housing-market-home-buying-selling

      1. “They likely won’t go anywhere near the levels of a few years go.”

        Take homes:

        – Higher-for-longer mortgage rates are here to stay.

        – The rate daters are SOL.

  15. American despair: In Arizona, high home prices and limited prospects shape voters’ presidential pick

    Plenty of Americans can look at their personal finances and see reasons for comfort, even if they mostly register despair when asked about the health of the country as a whole. Nearly 6 in 10 described their own economic situation as good, even as 7 in 10 said the nation was on the wrong track, according to a September poll by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs.

    When Republican John Giles was elected mayor of Mesa in 2014, his goal was to have a place where his children and grandchildren could live.

    It’s easy to overlook the city in the shadow of Phoenix, but Mesa’s population of 511,648 makes it larger than Atlanta, Miami or Minneapolis. The closing of Williams Air Force Base three decades ago led Mesa to recruit leading companies and Giles treats his state of the city addresses like a CEO at a tech rollout, recreating scenes from the time-travel movie “Back to the Future” and hanging out with shock rocker Alice Cooper.

    But Giles made headlines by endorsing Harris and speaking at the Democratic National Convention in August, saying that her policies would be more helpful for his city than would Trump’s. Giles sees the negativity swirling around the population as a byproduct of the politics in which ideologically driven media elevates conspiracy theories and consistently seeks to perpetuate division instead of rewarding problem-solving.

    “I always used to think the political spectrum was a pendulum,” he said. “There were these forces that would bring us back to seeing the flaws of extremism. But now there’s a lot of people making a lot of money promoting extreme political thought. To be successful at that, you have to fan people’s fears and tell them that they’re unhappy.”

    He looks at the economic data — 4.1% unemployment, new computer chips plants opening in Arizona, record levels of factory construction spending, a higher stock market and inflation easing — and confesses that he’s never been one who could overlook the facts and toe the Republican Party line.

    “President Biden should be hoisted on our shoulders and walked to the top of the mountain,” he said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/american-despair-in-arizona-high-home-prices-and-limited-prospects-shape-voters-presidential-pick/ar-AA1syyi5

  16. David Lawton, 42, a lifelong Democrat from Pontiac, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit, who is living with multiple sclerosis, said he’s hopeful Harris will improve conditions for disabled Americans by lowering the cost of healthcare like she promised, but he isn’t convinced.

    He voted for Biden and Harris four years ago and feels let down.

    “I feel like she’s going to drop the ball,” Lawton said. “I hope she don’t.”

    Lawton voted for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in 2016 and said he’s voting for Harris over Trump now without much enthusiasm.

    “It’s the better of two evils,” Lawton said. “Both of them got jacked up track records, but one is pushing more against working people than he is against rich people. Trump ain’t out to help us, he’s out to help the rich.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/the-quiet-part-out-loud-obama-brings-harris-issues-with-black-men-to-forefront/ar-AA1sxNEt

  17. Wall Street is “very convinced” that former President Donald Trump is going to win the 2024 presidential election, according to a billionaire investor who formerly managed money for George Soros.

    Stan Druckenmiller — who ditched his job making money for left-leaning tycoon Soros to start his own investment firm, Duquesne Capital — said the last two weeks have shown that the markets are pricing in a Trump victory.

    “You can see it in the bank stocks, you can see it in crypto,” Druckenmiller told Bloomberg News. “In the last 12 days, the market and the inside of the market is very convinced Trump is going to win.”

    https://nypost.com/2024/10/17/business/george-soros-ex-money-manager-says-wall-street-very-convinced-trump-will-win/

      1. Axios
        Sep 23, 2024 –
        Politics & Policy
        Harris embraces crypto, in overture to young men
        Mike Allen
        Illustration of a voting sticker on a Bitcoin.
        Illustration: Lindsey Bailey/Axios

        In an aggressive overture to business and young men, Vice President Harris used a packed fundraiser on Wall Street yesterday to declare her friendliness to cryptocurrency — and promise to work with major companies.

        Why it matters: Harris is trying to convince businesspeople she’d be better than former President Trump, despite his promised tax cuts — and would work with them more than President Biden, who rankled many CEOs.
        …
        https://www.axios.com/2024/09/23/harris-embraces-crypto-overture-young-men

      2. Trump touting digital tulip bulbs isn’t a good look for him. The Fed can’t roll out its own CBDC slave tokens until it first uses the power of FedGov to eliminate rival counterfeiters in the scam digital currency space. Consider yourselves warned, crypto baggies.

      3. Trump WLFI token a dud, Ripple unveils stablecoin, Bitcoin ETFs recover | Weekly Recap
        By Wahid Pessarlay
        October 20, 2024 at 1:37 pm
        Edited by Anthony Patrick
        Recap
        Trump WLFI token a dud, Ripple unveils stablecoin, Bitcoin ETFs recover | Weekly Recap

        In today’s edition of the weekly recap: Bitcoin ETFs enjoy a resurgence; Donald Trump’s World Liberty Financial undersells; and Ripple provides updates on a new stablecoin.
        …
        https://crypto.news/bitcoin-etfs-ripple-rlusd-trump-wlfi-dud-weekly-recap/

      4. I have some bad news for the cryptobois and their mindless following:

        – Like all financial manias, cryptomania will end in tears.

        – The complicity of the executive and legislative branches of FedGov plus many moguls on Wall Street will not be enough to sustain sham currencies.

        – The South Sea Bubble is a good historical reference to document how governmental complicity is ultimately insufficient to overcome a preponderance of unfavorable economic fundamentals.

        1. The South Sea Bubble
          The 18th century version of the Dot Com Boom – and Bust!
          Terry Stewart
          8 min read

          The South Sea Bubble has been called: the world’s first financial crash, the world’s first Ponzi scheme, speculation mania and a disastrous example of what can happen when people fall prey to ‘group think’. That it was a catastrophic financial crash is in no doubt and that some of the greatest thinkers at the time succumbed to it, including Isaac Newton himself, is also irrefutable. Estimates vary but Newton reportedly lost as much as £40 million of today’s money in the scheme. But what actually happened?

          It all began when a British joint stock company called ‘The South Sea Company’ was founded in 1711 by an Act of Parliament. It was a public and private partnership that was designed as a way of consolidating, controlling and reducing the national debt and to help Britain increase its trade and profits in the Americas. To enable it to do this, in 1713 it was granted a trading monopoly in the region. Part of this was the asiento, which allowed for the trading of African slaves to the Spanish and Portuguese Empires. The slave trade had proved immensely profitable in the previous two centuries and there was huge public confidence in the scheme, as many expected slave profits to increase dramatically, especially when the War of the Spanish Succession came to an end and trade could begin in earnest. It didn’t quite play out like that however…
          …
          https://www.historic-uk.com/HistoryUK/HistoryofEngland/South-Sea-Bubble/

          1. “The slave trade had proved immensely profitable in the previous two centuries and there was huge public confidence in the scheme, as many expected slave profits to increase dramatically, especially when the War of the Spanish Succession came to an end and trade could begin in earnest.”

            The story brings to mind today’s wage slaves converting their hard earned dollars into crypto, on the theory that crypto will rapidly appreciate relative to the dollar in perpetuity.

  18. Are Democrats losing Latinos, and the election, to Donald Trump?

    At a sidewalk stand staffed by Donald Trump’s allies, in a bustling Hispanic hub in the critical election state of Pennsylvania, a man seeking voter-registration papers describes the moment his political views shifted.

    “La pandemia,” says Jorge Lami, who plans to cast his first-ever ballot for Trump.

    The pandemic.

    It comes up frequently in discussions about why Democrats risk losing Latino voters for the third straight election, with potentially game-changing electoral consequences.

    Lami, a Dominican-born Uber driver, laments the economic pain of recent years, first with businesses shut down, then with inflation, which has just finally eased.

    He lives in the majority-Latino city of Allentown, Pa. Democrats typically dominate here, yet on this day, many cars honk their horns and pedestrians sporadically offer thumbs-up as they pass the Trump stand.

    In a nearby county, Karen Acuna Bertolo reached the same conclusion, albeit earlier than Lami: She became a Trump supporter in 2020.

    A mother and business owner, she says her turning point came amid prolonged school shutdowns and destructive anti-police protests — she blamed Democrats for both.

    “That’s when it changed for me. I became Republican,” said the Nicaraguan-born woman, who co-owns a refrigeration-products business with her husband near Philadelphia.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/are-democrats-losing-latinos-and-the-election-to-donald-trump/ar-AA1szZAP

    1. The Democrats own the inflationary consequences of the pandemic response. Especially Governor Newsom, who led the effort to put the economy into a medically induced coma.

      Which reminds me, whatever became of Governor Newsom’s presidential aspirations?

      1. I don’t know why anyone thought he would be president or even run. He looks like a used car salesman. In office he’s a bully, blames everybody but himself, people are leaving and the state is falling apart while drowning in debt. Nationally most people have never heard of him. A few months ago he was at a CA sales counter on video. The young woman cashier didn’t recognize him, even after he told her who he was.

        1. Kamala Harris dropped out of the Democrat primary because of her abysmal support and after Tulsi Gabbard destroyed her in the candidates’ debate. She’s experienced a 95% staff turnover because she’s so horrible to her underlings, to include blaming them for her own shortcomings. She has zero accountability or logic and tells the 79% of Americans who think the country is headed in the wrong direction that it’s all Trump’s fault and that she would change nothing about the Biden-Harris regime’s horrendous track record. Yet the globalists and DNC picked her in a palace coup to be their standard-bearer. Nothing makes sense in #ClownWorld.

        3. The Washington Post
          How California’s $100 billion surplus became a ‘budget emergency’

          Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom and lawmakers announced a budget deal whose cuts could put him at odds with staunch allies and temper ambitious policy goals.
          8 min
          1985
          California Gov. Gavin Newsom answers questions about his revised 2024-25 state budget proposal during a news conference in Sacramento on May 10. Newsom and lawmakers announced a budget deal Saturday.
          (Rich Pedroncelli/AP)
          By Reis Thebault
          June 23, 2024 at 4:34 p.m. EDT

          Two years ago, California was so flush that Gov. Gavin Newsom was moved to make a bold declaration about the state’s estimated $100 billion budget surplus.

          “Simply without precedent,” the Democratic leader said, announcing the good news in May 2022. “No other state in American history has ever experienced a surplus as large as this.”

          In those heady days, the state’s record-setting surfeit of cash seemed like a resounding endorsement of the California way, bolstering Newsom’s rising national profile and presidential bona fides.

          But fast-forward to 2024 and the situation has swung wildly in the opposite direction: The state — still the wealthiest and most populous in the nation — is facing a nearly $50 billion budget shortfall in the coming fiscal year, testing its commitment to an increasingly liberal agenda advanced in recent years.
          …
          https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2024/06/23/gavin-newsom-california-budget-deficit-deal/

          1. “Two years ago, California was so flush that Gov. Gavin Newsom was moved to make a bold declaration about the state’s estimated $100 billion budget surplus.”

            Is that when they decided reparations would “feel good?”

  19. Barack Obama cast his White House successor as an out-of-touch elitist who promotes the wrong kind of masculinity, during a Friday stop in battleground Arizona, as he appealed directly to the young men whom Kamala Harris needs to win over to become the first woman elected president next month.

    Obama is one of the most popular figures in the Democratic Party, but he never carried Arizona as a presidential candidate. Obama lost the 2008 presidential race here to home state Sen. John McCain by 8 percentage points and lost again to Republican Mitt Romney in 2012 by 9 percentage points.

    Obama differentiated Trump from Republicans like “my friend” John McCain, a beloved figure in Arizona.

    William Coleman, 29, attended the event with Large Alexander, 18, and Denise Williams, 19, who only recently became interested in politics and wanted to see Obama in person.

    Coleman wanted to see firsthand how many Harris supporters are in their community.

    “Social media, Twitter makes me nervous. Going on there right now, and it’s just so far-right. It’s kind of scary, (they will) put up polls on Twitter of Kamala versus Trump and (how) quickly Trump will go up (in the poll). So I’m like, is that really how people really feel?” Coleman said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/barack-obama-knocks-donald-trump-for-phony-masculinity-urges-men-to-back-kamala-harris/ar-AA1sykaA

    1. So Goldman Sachs errand boy Barack Obama, who enriched himself and (cough) Michelle to the tune of $70M via services rendered to Wall Street during his “public service,” now ventures forth from the lily-white Hamptons to lecture the Brothers on why they should vote for the corrupt, crony capitalist status quo that benefits only a corrupt and venal .1% in the financier oligarchy. Good luck keeping black males on the globalists’ incorporated neoliberal plantation, Barry.

  20. It’s official: Trump has jumped the last major legal hurdle between now and Election Day in his bid to return to the White House.

    Yesterday the judge overseeing the criminal case against Trump in Washington over his alleged effort to steal the 2020 election released four appendices of evidence compiled by special counsel JACK SMITH and his team of prosecutors at the Justice Department.

    Despite Trump’s vigorous objections to the release, there was not much to pore over — and pretty much nothing in the way of any new revelations: “Trump’s opponents were hoping for more bombshells in Jack Smith’s final document dump before the election,”writes Kyle Cheney. “On Friday, those hopes fizzled.”

    It’s a remarkable coup for Trump, who a year ago faced criminal legal threats on four fronts: a New York state trial over hush money payments, a Georgia state prosecution over his post-2020 election schemes and twin federal cases led by Smith into both that election subversion and his handling of classified documents.

    Only the New York case has resulted in any significant consequences, and Trump’s still locked in a neck-and-neck race with Harris. And now Trump should not have to worry about the Justice Department producing any particularly new or damaging revelations before votes are counted.

    But one big question has loomed behind the Justice Department’s recent filings: Why haven’t there been any particularly shocking or earth-shattering revelations?

    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/playbook/2024/10/19/how-scotus-saved-trump-from-an-october-surprise-00184481

  21. While California almost certainly will vote for Vice President Kamala Harris over Trump, once deep-red Inyo County — home to some 19,000 people between the Eastern Sierra and Nevada state line — is a tossup.

    And just about everybody blames the changes on newcomers — remote workers and “the invasion of L.A. Sprinter vans,” as one Democrat put it, who during the pandemic fled their expensive, locked-down cities for the Eastern Sierra, and never left.

    (The city folks left so much trash and feces in the forest that locals distributed stickers promoting proper camping etiquette, including one with a smiling piece of poop that reads: “Pack it out! We care where you go!”)

    The politics of Inyo County, a place roughly the size of Massachusetts, have long been tinted red by residents’ distrust and resentment of liberal big cities like Los Angeles, whose Department of Water and Power owns much of the county’s land.

    David Blacker, chairman of the Inyo County Republican Central Committee, said that, in 2020, local conservatives “got lulled into a false sense of security” and were surprised by the political flip.

    Blacker, who lives and works in Death Valley National Park, said the economy is voters’ top concern in Inyo County, which relies upon tourists’ financial ability to vacation in its public lands. Biden-era inflation, he said, has been brutal.

    “All the people I’m talking to now, they’re saying they’re they’d rather have mean tweets and a vibrant economy than continue the way we’re going,” Blacker said.

    Bishop Mayor Jose Garcia, a healthcare interpreter and former dentist from Mexico City who moved here in 1989, said that in Inyo County he has found kindness and grace that transcend partisan bickering.

    “We’re less than 4,000 people. Are we going to divide ourselves because of politics? No,” he said.

    Garcia, who was elected in 2020 and is running for reelection, last month he did a substantive interview on the podcast Butthurt Owens Valley, which is named after a red-leaning Facebook group where locals gossip and gripe.

    He read aloud a recent comment from the Facebook page: “Democrats stay off my property!!! and Mr. Garcia you’ll never have my vote!!!”

    It made him laugh.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/in-this-red-california-county-biden-beat-trump-by-just-14-votes-what-happens-next/ar-AA1sxZX9

  22. Two Texas cities represent the divide between those who vote and those who could, but often don’t

    Deep in the heart of Texas’ sprawl, the city of Lewisville embodies the Lone Star State.

    Bisected by Interstate 35 and ribboned with six- and eight-lane thoroughfares lined with chain stores, Mexican restaurants and pawn shops, Lewisville, 23 miles north of Dallas, is the prototypical slice of the nation’s second most populous state. Its typical resident is about 36 years old, the same as in Texas. Similar to statewide, 6 out of 10 residents are not white, and about two-thirds of its voters cast ballots in the 2020 presidential election.

    Next door is the city of Flower Mound, a swath of swanky subdivisions with names such as Teal Wood Oaks and Chaucer Estates. Flower Mound looks more like the electorate that has kept Texas dominated by Republicans for decades. It is wealthier than Lewisville, more than two-thirds of its residents are white, and 78% of them voted in 2020.

    Ivan Barrera, 32, works in Salguero’s shop and shares his boss’ concern about the former president’s rhetoric on immigration. Still, he is leaning toward Trump because Barrera normally votes Republican.

    “I don’t want nothing given to me,” Barrera said, “because I know nothing was given to my parents growing up.”

    Barrera’s trying to persuade his parents, Mexican immigrants who live outside Lewisville, to support Trump.

    There’s a catch. His parents have been citizens for decades, but they still are not registered to vote.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/two-texas-cities-represent-the-divide-between-those-who-vote-and-those-who-could-but-often-dont/ar-AA1sysba

  23. In the race for San Diego mayor, voters must decide whether the city is on the right track to solving its biggest challenges — and if not, whether a police officer who is a political newcomer can get it there.

    Incumbent Todd Gloria says he’s making major progress on homelessness, the housing crisis and repairing San Diego’s crumbling infrastructure. And he says those problems can be solved if voters give him four more years.

    Challenger Larry Turner, a city police officer and former U.S. Marine, says Gloria has been a failure on homelessness, quality of life and many other issues. And Turner says the mayor is more focused on his next job in politics than actually solving San Diego’s problems.

    “The city is, in all respects, worse than it was on the last day Kevin Faulconer was mayor,” said Turner, referring to Gloria’s predecessor. “We would have been better off with a houseplant as mayor for the last four years.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/gloria-says-he-s-laid-a-foundation-for-progress-turner-says-the-city-would-be-better-off-with-a-houseplant/ar-AA1syfuU

  24. Letters: Flag burning ignites contempt for Trudeau government

    Re: Trudeau fiddles as Canadian flags burn — Michael Higgins, Oct. 9; and First, they came for the Jews. Now, they’re coming for the Canadian flag — Avi Benlolo, Oct. 11

    Justin Trudeau and the Liberals are relentless in telling Canadians that diversity is one of Canada’s strengths. When protesters gather on the steps of the Vancouver Art Gallery and chant “Death to Canada,” it is pretty clear that “diversity is our strength” is a slogan at best and pure disinformation at worst.

    Trudeau should stop his silly sloganeering and take action to bring Canadians together in support of our country. Unfortunately, he and his government use race, gender, language, culture and geography to create division for crass political purposes while Canada, as a country, suffers as a result.

    Paul Clarry, Aurora, Ont.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/letters-flag-burning-ignites-contempt-for-trudeau-government/ar-AA1sAlIU

  25. With final results in B.C.’s provincial election still pending, John Rustad has vowed to make life “as difficult as possible” for the NDP should the party be re-elected to a minority government.

    The B.C. Conservative leader addressed supporters shortly after 11 p.m. Saturday, celebrating his party’s dramatic ascension to, at minimum, the province’s official Opposition.

    “No question, this has been a historic night. This has been a night where we have seen the political landscape in British Columbia change forever,” Rustad declared.

    Rustad credited his party’s supporters for pressuring his opponent, incumbent premier David Eby, into backtracking on a number of controversial policies, including the province’s drug decriminalization pilot, which was dialled back last year.

    Should the NDP win a minority, Rustad said, the Conservatives will do whatever they can to prevent the party from doing “any more destruction in the province.”

    Becoming the Opposition was a formidable feat for a party that garnered less than two per cent of the popular vote in 2020, and elected zero candidates.

    “We now have the strongest Conservative party that this province has seen in 100 years,” Rustad said Saturday. “This is what happens when you stand on values. This is what happens when you stand on principles.”

    Rustad was first elected as a B.C. Liberal in 2005 and served as a cabinet minister under former premier Christy Clark. He was ousted from the B.C. United caucus in 2022 for his denial of climate science and briefly sat as an Independent before joining the B.C. Conservatives and being acclaimed as party leader.

    https://bc.ctvnews.ca/we-have-not-given-up-b-c-conservative-leader-vows-to-keep-fighting-ndp-1.7080141

  26. The far-right economist and TV panelist Javier Milei came to power in Argentina declaring that “there’s no money.” Armed with a chainsaw — a campaign prop — he won the 2023 presidential elections promising to reduce the size of the state to the bare minimum, in order to rein in the national debt and get control of inflation. During his first 10 months in office, he fulfilled his promise of cuts: spending has been reduced by 30% year-over-year in real terms (adjusted for inflation), according to calculations by the Center for Argentine Political Economy (CEPA) and the Association for the Budget and Public Financial Management (ASAP).

    Milei has mercilessly used his chainsaw, always with the excuse that he’s waging a war against the political class, which he accuses of turning the prosperous and powerful Argentina of 100 years ago into a “factory of the poor.” His broad definition of the so-called “political caste” includes politicians, trade unionists, journalists, actors, intellectuals, big businesspeople and bankers. Milei refers to them, varyingly, as “miserable rats,” “dirty asses,” “degenerate prosecutors,” or “filthy leftists.”

    https://english.elpais.com/international/2024-10-20/milei-is-taking-a-chainsaw-to-the-argentine-state.html

    1. +1

      You could make 90% of Washington Dee Cee unemployed and the rest of the country would feel no negative consequences.

  27. How Georgian Partners, Canada’s venture capital leader, turned into an industry laggard

    WorkFusion Inc. was supposed to be a big winner for venture capital firm Georgian Partners Growth LP. The Toronto firm had been looking to back fast-growing startups that used artificial intelligence to transform the business world. WorkFusion was ideal: It had a “powerful vision” to improve productivity with robotic process automation (RPA) software it deployed to help financial giants automate and optimize business functions, Georgian head of firm Justin LaFayette said.

    That was in January, 2017, as Georgian led a US$35-million funding of the New York company. A year later, Georgian topped up as part of a US$50-million financing, then went all-in, buying US$200-million of WorkFusion equity in spring 2021, mostly through an “alignment” fund that backed its winners. It now owns 52 per cent of WorkFusion.

    It hasn’t worked out. WorkFusion’s revenue sank in three of the past four years, losses mounted and cash dwindled as the RPA business declined. WorkFusion hired Deutsche Bank to find a buyer, and in the second quarter of this year, Georgian cut the value of its combined holdings in the company across three of its funds to US$91.2-million, down from US$275.2-million invested. Sector feedback received by WorkFusion suggests it could fetch much less.

    WorkFusion isn’t Georgian’s only disappointment, nor its worst performer. During the first half of 2024, Georgian wrote down 28 investments in 21 companies – wiping out US$430-million in book value – across its five oldest active funds. Among those are four total writeoffs of companies that got US$190-million from Georgian.

    The information comes from quarterly reports sent confidentially to Georgian investors, or limited partners (LPs), and obtained by The Globe and Mail. The documents offer a rare look into a key Canadian private capital player, portraying a fund manager dealing with a serious hangover after investing heavily at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic tech bubble rather than selling when spendthrift funders were plentiful.

    Georgian promoted itself as an innovative financier that took a hands-on approach with portfolio companies, even building software for them. Its calling card was an early, lucrative bet on Shopify Inc.

    But Georgian’s results haven’t lived up to the hype. It has been bleak for VCs since the bubble burst in late 2021. Overvalued, free-spending startups slashed costs as investors lost their appetite for money-losing tech plays. Interest-rate spikes impaired software revenue growth as corporate spending tightened. Many VCs that invested at inflated prices subsequently slashed valuations of portfolio companies once destined for windfall exits; BDC alone devalued its VC holdings by $1-billion in the past two years.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-georgian-partners-venture-capital-performance/

  28. Four takeaways from Pony AI’s IPO filing

    Toyota-backed autonomous vehicle company Pony AI has joined the list of Chinese firms going public on the U.S. stock market after a multi-year ban from Beijing on offshore capital raising.

    Zeekr, a luxury Chinese electric vehicle startup, debuted on the New York Stock Exchange in May, and WeRide, another AV startup, also hopes to file an IPO in the U.S. this year at a $5 billion valuation, but its plans have been delayed as of August.

    Pony was valued at $8.5 billion when it raised capital in 2022. Toyota participated in that round as a follow-on investor after injecting the startup with $400 million in 2020, per PitchBook data. The Japanese automaker’s stake in Pony is at 13.4%. The Chinese AV startup has since secured $100 million from Saudi Arabia’s NEOM in 2023, and $27 million from Chinese VC GAC Capital in October.

    But the filing to go public reveals that Pony’s board of directors recently slashed the minimum valuation for its IPO down to $4 billion. Pony also dropped its minimum target for what it wants to raise in the transaction from $425 million to just $200 million.

    The company says it operates a fleet of 190 “robotrucks” in Beijing and Guangzhou, and over 250 robotaxis in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen, and Shanghai. It can charge for robotaxi fares in the first three cities, and is fully driverless in Guangzhou and Shenzhen.

    On the robotaxi side, Pony says it receives an average of 15 daily orders per robotaxi from the 220,000 registered users on the PonyPilot app. Overall it says it has accumulated more than 20 million “autonomous driving miles,” though just 2.4 million of those had no human driver behind the wheel.

    It’s no secret autonomous vehicles are a pricey business. And while Pony says it generated gross profits of $32 million and $17 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, the company lost more than $270 million over those years.

    A huge driver of those losses has been Pony’s R&D spend. Understandable, given that Pony is a company developing pioneer technology, involving an extremely sensor-heavy autonomous stack. But we wonder when Pony is going to really prioritize operations over R&D. As of June 30, the startup’s workforce of around 1,300 employees is 44% R&D, 16% technology deployment and production, and only 28.5% operations. It spent $73 million on R&D employee salaries alone in 2023 and finished the first half of this year with $335 million in cash.

    Every company needs to lay out the risks associated with the business when they go public. But damn it all if Pony wasn’t incredibly thorough with 60 pages worth of disclaimers.

    One of its main risks? It’s coming off a shortage of sufficiently skilled staff with knowledge of U.S. GAAP (Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) to ensure proper compliance with SEC requirements.

    While Pony says it has fixed this weakness as of the end of 2023, there is very recent evidence that shows how real a risk this can be to a young business in Fisker. That EV startup’s nosedive into bankruptcy was, in large part, triggered by it missing the deadline to file its third-quarter financial results last year.

    There’s also the old People’s Republic of China conundrum – something Zeekr is familiar with. We’ll let Pony say it: “The PRC regulatory authorities have significant oversight over our business and may influence our operations as they deem appropriate to further economic, regulatory, political and societal goals.”

    Moving on, Pony included a slight risk of not being able to continue its extremely limited robotaxi testing in the U.S. due to impending regulations against Chinese connected vehicles. The startup has a permit to test AVs with a driver behind the wheel in California, but it says its operations in the U.S. generated “less than 1% of our total revenues in 2023 and the six months ended June 30, 2024.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/other/four-takeaways-from-pony-ai-s-ipo-filing/ar-AA1syTil

  29. Absent vast electoral fraud, Comrade Kamala doesn’t stand a snowball’s chance of beating Trump following her train-wreck Fox News interview. One of the best things about a Kamala shellacking will be all the distraught special snowflakes taking to social media a la the 2016 “crying Hillary supporter” videos that provided such merriment for the sane portion of the population. We still have a couple weeks before videos of caterwauling Kamala supporters appear, but in the interim, here’s a warm-up featuring Chinese Gen-X “investors” who got their heads handed to them in the PRC’s rigged stock markets. Cry it out, special snowflakes!

    Chinese New Stock Traders All Trapped, Cries Everywhere! Gen Z Borrowed $10K, Lost It All Plus $7K!

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1DrbZ75_5-8

    1. Yahoo Finance
      Benzinga
      5.6 Million Vacant Homes In America: Are We Misunderstanding The Housing Crisis? Experts Weigh In
      AJ Fabino
      Wed, Oct 16, 2024, 4:30 AM PDT
      4 min read

      The narrative of America’s housing crisis has long centered on a severe shortage of available homes. While true, data issued by LendingTree found that there are 5.6 million vacant properties across the nation’s 50 largest metros.

      The figure represents an average 7.37% vacancy rate, prompting a closer look at the true nature of the housing crunch.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-6-million-vacant-homes-113019822.html

    2. Despite Housing Shortage, America Has 5.6 Million Vacant Homes—What Gives? By Julie Taylor
      Oct 9, 2024

      We’ve all heard that sky-high home prices in the U.S. are due in part to a major housing shortage.

      But a new study from LendingTree found there are actually millions of vacant properties out there—5.6 million, to be exact.

      LendingTree ranked the nation’s 50 largest metros by their share of unoccupied homes and revealed that, on average, 7.37% of homes in these metros are currently unoccupied.
      …
      https://www.realtor.com/news/trends/cities-with-most-vacant-homes-lendingtree-study/

    5. “5.6 Million Vacant Homes In America”

      If that’s considered to be a shortage, how many vacant houses does it take for there to be a surplus?

  31. ‘median value of a home in City Heights, Kensington-Talmadge, Normal Heights and Eastern Area was $723,000 in 2022, the most recent data cited. In 2000, it was nearly $150,000, making for a 384% increase over the two decades’

    And in the early 70’s it was probably 20 something thousands. I can say that because in the majority of the US shack prices were the same then.

  32. ‘Without people in offices, you don’t do any lunch business and you don’t do any happy hour business because there are no bodies to come in for lunch and happy hour,’ said John Imbergamo, who has been a Denver restaurant consultant for over 30 years. ‘That just, you know, tore a hole through the fabric of the economics of restaurants in downtown, and continues to do that, to some extent’

    There hasn’t been a real investigation of who the heck was deciding what when this suicidal lockdown crap happened. I’ve been in the storefront business. Everything has to work or you get killed.

    1. I no longer go into Downtown Denver by choice, there’s nothing I need or want there.

      Closest I usually get is QED (3rd and Santa Fe) or CED (6th and Federal) and I do NOT like generating sales tax revenue for the City of Denver.

      Stop going there. Stop giving them money. It’s not that hard.

  33. ‘A record number of homes came on the market in Chatham-Kent last month as residential sales ‘maintained (a) strong showing,’ the area realtors’ association says. September’s 275 new residential listings were a record for the month, jumping 37.5 per cent from September 2023, the association said. New listings were nearly 30 per cent above the five-year average and 44.4 per cent above the 10-year average for the month of September. ‘The other major story was with new listings, which set the highest level on record by far of any September in history and marking the first time new listings had surpassed 250 in this month…However, with overall inventories rising but not reporting as impressive of a spike, it is likely that many of these listings were repriced and relisted as sellers become increasingly motivated to attract buyers’

    You got 4 months of inventory Carrie, technically it’s a sellers market. The relisting might explain that.

  34. ‘The roads haven’t been completed in four years; the developer has relinquished responsibility and accountability for the work. Residents feel they were mis-sold their contracts’…New build estate management fees, also known as ‘fleecehold’, have crept in across the last two decades and is now an ‘industry norm,’ according to Paula Higgins, who is the founder of the HomeOwners Alliance. The fees usually cover the maintenance of any communal areas – from pavements and car parks to play areas – and are often charged when buying a new-build property. Residents also pay council tax on top of this’

    Thank you for yer contribution to today’s HBB Pitfalls of Commie Urban Living™ Paula!

  35. ‘Goodall said there were about 3500 households that had bought at the peak and now had homes that were worth 20 percent or more less than they paid. In most cases, first-home buyers have about 20 percent deposit – or less – so that meant that thousands had their deposits wiped out. ‘Interestingly this would be relatively similar to the recovery from the GFC where I believe it took about seven years for the market to return back to the peak of 2007. With a larger fall this time around, particularly in places like Auckland and Wellington, it wouldn’t surprise me to take longer this time around’

    So yer a lion about the 5 years thing Nick.

  36. $2,000,000 Insured Loans, Mortgage Cliff, Lazy Land, Gentle Supply???

    Jon Flynn Real Estate Stats

    1 hour ago

    The government are getting desperate in their latest attempts to keep this Canadian Real Estate Ponzi scheme going. New buzz words include gentle supply and lazy land in an attempt to get you to build homes in your back yards. Crystia Freeland and Justin Trudeau’s housing scheme won’t end well.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qsImMpGj07I

    16:13.

    1. Yahoo Finance
      5 Housing Markets That Will Plummet in Value Before the End of 2025
      Angela Mae
      Mon, Oct 14, 2024, 6:00 AM PDT
      5 min read
      Daniel X. O’Neil / Flickr.com

      The U.S. housing market is always changing, but property prices have largely gone up over the years.

      In certain markets, particularly in Texas, there’s actually been a more recent decline. Depending on buyer demand, supply, and other economic factors, some housing markets could plummet in value within the next 12 months or so.

      If you’re a buyer, lower housing prices is good news as it means you’re more likely to get a good deal — and maybe even have more negotiating power with sellers. If you’re a seller, you might want to put your home on the market before it loses value or wait until your local real estate market rights itself again.

      Whatever the case may be, here are six housing markets that experts believe will lose value before the end of 2025.
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/5-housing-markets-plummet-value-220101531.html

    1. I’m sorry to hear that Tarara.

      For many reasons, not the least of which being good people like you I wish this decades long housing/rent debacle would come to an end so people could afford a reasonable place to live at a reasonable percentage of their income.

      1. Thanks, Jeff. As much as a dump as it is, I’m not inclined to fight with her bc rentals are still scarce. It’s less than average rent, but it’s also a less than average place, like a time capsule. So far we’ve had fire, asbestos and past (bf we moved in) mold problems. A little bit of pestilence.

        About the mold, I had my suspicions bc when we were still looking to buy, I thought I remembered this place and mold. Asked the LL directly about the mold (been seeing her a lot lately) and she denied it. Later, one of her workers mentioned the mold, so I laughed and said A-HA! She looked annoyed; I don’t think she’s able to be embarrassed.

        Only flooding (unlikely) left to go!

      2. @rms
        No. But the sweet sounding “Mom and Pops” are generally crazy, so not a day at the beach. Only had one good one – an electrician, p/t RE agent. Got killed on his properties in ’08.

    4. My increase in 2023 was 1%, but that jumped to 3.5% in 2024 (just signed).

      I live in a corporate owned place, and it’s nice — the grounds are clean, no poors/section 8 nonsense, things are repaired immediately.

      Still, this eats into my pay raise at work so I’m unfortunately not going to get ahead as much this year. Maybe I’ll try working harder.

      My investment portfolio is going gangbusters though. So that’s fun.

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