Sellers In Some Towns Are About To Give Buyers A Windfall Chance At Low Prices

A report from KSBY. “On Friday, at the Central Coast Economic Forecast, Dr. Chris Thornberg, focused on the concept of ‘narrative versus reality’ and the California economy. The message from Dr. Thornberg to the hundreds of people in attendance — the California economy is perfectly fine. ‘Don’t blame the economy. It’s the narrative that’s broken,’ Thornberg said. He provided the audience with a new way to look at California’s economy. ‘If you want to know the way the economy is going, you have to look at both the narrative and the objective reality. Narratives drive choices, but it’s economic reality that determines the outcome of those particular choices,’ Thornberg said. Thornberg also spoke about the California housing market. ‘The real story of housing is not a lack of sales but a lack of supply,’ Thornberg said.”

Axios on California. “San Diego isn’t alone — housing policy is center stage in many of the country’s mayoral elections this year. More than half of San Diego voters cite housing costs as the city’s biggest problem, which is double the next answer: the interrelated homelessness crisis. Mayor Todd Gloria’s reelection campaign is touting his efforts to boost homebuilding, while his opponent, Larry Turner, argues increased development won’t effect affordability. ‘What really does cause the affordability problem in San Diego, it is not the number of housing (units),’ Turner said in the same debate. ‘We have a glut of housing… The problem is it’s not affordable. To just continue to build more in the hopes that it’s just gonna lower the prices, that’s not happening. The outside investors that come to San Diego are the ones raising prices and they donate money to our mayor and he allows them to then knock down homes in single family neighborhoods, and he allows them to build small apartment complexes there.'”

10 News in California. “With the election just around the corner, Kyle Whissel of Whissel Realty Group said whether red or blue, the housing market will be impacted. He said San Diego County has also experienced the slowest home sale rate this year since 2007. ‘If you’re thinking about buying, it makes way more sense to buy now when you have control, as opposed to Q1 or Q2 next year, when I think the sellers will have more control,’ said Whissel.”

The Bakersfield Californian. “Bakersfield wasn’t the issue when Angel Przybylski and her husband left town for South Carolina over the summer. She said it had more to do with California’s governor and the policies coming out of Sacramento. ‘We don’t have to fight as hard to keep our head above water financially here as we did in California,’ said Przybylski, a real estate agent who spent 20 years in Bakersfield after growing up in Southern California. The trend of people leaving Bakersfield is easy to overstate, in that larger cities in the state are experiencing a bigger exodus.”

“Bakersfield home appraiser Gary Crabtree, a longtime observer of the local home market, suggested rising costs are probably what’s pushing people to leave town. Entry-level homes have risen in price by almost a quarter in the last three years, he said by email, partly because material and labor expenses have climbed, and that crime and homelessness have in recent years ‘entered the motivation.'”

The Review Journal in Nevada. “Maria Isabel Macias has had the same dream since she moved to Las Vegas more than a decade ago. ‘I want to own a home,’ said the 58-year-old who was recently out election canvassing in North Las Vegas for the Culinary Union. ‘That is the dream, that is the American dream.’ But things haven’t gone according to plan, as Macias has had to move in with her sister, and the cook who works at Caesars Palace said every year her dream gets farther and farther away and her monthly expenses are not keeping up with her wages. She now feels like she might always be stuck renting and not building wealth through a mortgage payment. Macias said she’s voting for Democrat Kamala Harris and one of the main reasons is Harris’ plan to offer first-time homebuyers a $25,000 down payment support for 400,000 Americans so she can get into the housing market.”

“John Restrepo, a principal with Las Vegas-based RCG Economics, an economic consultancy company, said the housing data over the past decade in the valley tells a compelling story and is in line with Macias frustrations. ‘While Clark County was seen as having an affordable housing market in for many years, that is no longer the case,’ he said. ‘For example, in 2014, the median resale price was $172,800 and the average interest rate on a 30-year mortgage was 4.3 percent.'”

“Las Vegas resident Justin Trippiedi said he doesn’t know too much about Trump’s housing plans, but he knows rent ‘is outrageous.’ He likes Trump’s plans on doing away with taxes on tips. Mylissa Kurz, a Las Vegas resident dressed as Morticia Addams, said Trump is hoping to make housing cheaper, but she said there’s more pressing issues to deal with, like the border and ‘getting rid of the nasty Democrats.’ When told about Trump’s plan to help open up federal land for more housing development, Trippiedi said he believes that’s a good idea. ‘There’s way too much of it, to be honest,’ Trippiedi said. ‘There’s way too much of it, to be honest. There’s so much government land out there. If it’s absolutely necessary to the ecosystem, OK. But just to have miles and miles of land, what do we do with it?'”

KOMO in Washington. “As a fifth generation Seattlelite, Tanya Woo said giving people and businesses in marginalized communities a voice is a major part of her platform in the race to keep her city-wide council seat. ‘When we uplift our small businesses, our city does better and our neighborhoods do better,’ she explained. Voters are making the issues they care about known in this election cycle. ‘The people doing amphetamines and opiates on the streets,’ voter Cyrus Mehta stated.”

Boston.com in Massachusetts. “There have long been homeless people in Davis Square. But this summer, neighbors with and without homes agree, something was different. A rise in unsheltered homelessness here, mainly in two parks near the MBTA stop, was hard to ignore, as were reports of open drug use and drug dealing, discarded needles, and violence — notably, two back-to-back stabbings in September in which four people were injured. Some neighbors felt newly uneasy running errands after dark or about the growing crowd of people injecting drugs near two day cares. The issue has fueled a roiling debate among residents of this progressive city about how to address the sudden surge in the heart of a busy neighborhood without simply pushing a vulnerable population elsewhere.”

“‘It’s not the same vibe,’ said Gail, 73, who lives down the street from Statue Park and didn’t want her last name published because she worried what some neighbors might say about her comments. ‘It doesn’t feel right,’ she said, standing on the sidewalk. She said she has been confronted many times walking past the park by people asking for money or in a state of distress. ‘I don’t go near this area at all anymore,’ she said.”

“Her feelings were echoed Wednesday at a public meeting at a local Baptist church, where the city’s mayor and police addressed the sudden rise in homelessness to a packed crowd. ‘This is a family city,’ said one woman who like many others didn’t share her name. ‘How are we supposed to raise children in Davis Square?’ Another called for for a ‘zero tolerance’ policy for opioids.”

From Realtor.com. “Homebuyers in Phoenix and two other sunny locales are about to catch a much-needed break in their search for the perfect forever home. However, as Realtor.com® senior economist Ralph McLaughlin notes, ‘buyers looking for more favorable market conditions have to wait about a month longer than the nationwide average’ in places like Phoenix, Tampa, FL, and Raleigh, NC. With Phoenix’s median list price hovering just under $520,000 in October, Arizona real estate agents say buyers should make a move. Luckily for buyers, real estate agent Stacy Miller says she’s never seen a market that’s quite like this one. ‘Prices, as well as seller terms and concessions, seem to be more negotiable than ever,’ she says. ‘Some incredible homes in great school districts are sitting longer than I would expect.'”

“Next week, Tampa homebuyers will enjoy a potential savings as much as $21,000 below peak—perfect for a Riverwalk shopping spree. October median list price: $450,000. Discount next week vs. peak: -6.0%.”

Gulf Shore Business. “Realtors and analysts are monitoring recent residential real estate transactions in Southwest Florida to gauge whether prices will remain steady, decrease or increase in the aftermath of hurricanes Helene and Milton. Shelton Weeks, Lucas Professor of Real Estate at Florida Gulf Coast University, referred to Charlotte County as ‘an area double hit with flooding’ over the last month, noting that buyers have more of an awareness of flood risks. A new state law that went into effect Oct. 1 mandates sellers disclose whether their homes have been flooded, said Carla Nix, a residential Realtor in Punta Gorda. ‘We see people buying as is,’ she said.”

“The latest statistics from Realtors of Punta Gorda-Port Charlotte-North Port-DeSoto Inc. are from September’s transactions and show Charlotte County inventory for single-family homes was at 6.6 months while inventory for condos and townhomes stood at 9.4 months. The median price for single-family homes was $335,250, down from August’s $350,000. Also, there were fewer closed sales in September – 346 versus 486 in August. Weeks and her husband Danny Nix, who sells commercial real estate, agreed until inventory levels decrease, it will generally remain a buyer’s market.”

WPTV in Florida. “More than three weeks after the tornadoes from Hurricane Milton, storm victims are now finding out about the process of navigating homeowners insurance. Near Fort Pierce, Shane Ostrander — whose house was leveled by a tornado — is now dealing with Citizens Insurance. He and his wife survived by hiding in a bedroom closet. He told WPTV that Citizens Insurance is already moving towards a settlement, which he is still going through. ‘With the value we’re getting, we’re not able to buy a used or new home in our area,’ Ostrander said. ‘I’m hoping that we’ll be able to rebuild.’ For many people, it’s the first time they’re dealing with claims, and doing it under some of the worst circumstances. ‘It’s a roller coaster,’ Ostrander said. ‘Some days are very hopeful and feeling good and then the next day you wake up feeling sad, feeling sorry for yourself.'”

The Financial Post in Canada. “Buy low, sell high, they say. Well, it looks like condo sellers in some towns (looking at you, Toronto) are about to give buyers a windfall chance at low prices. The psychology in some of Canada’s biggest condo markets , particularly those with large immigrant populations, has been deteriorating for months, but the meltdown is worsening. It may not be a Chernobyl — because prices will someday recover — but it’s definitely feeling Three Mile Island-esque.”

“Metro Toronto is dealing with: A record number of condo listings (up 38 per cent year-over-year). ‘Two years of record condo completions ahead, through 2026,’ according to housing analyst Ben Rabidoux. Plummeting third-quarter condo sales (especially for new condos, which are at their lowest since 1995 according to Urbanation). A 46.6 per cent surge in condos listed for rent in Q3, according to the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). Unsold new condo inventory that’s 56 per cent above the latest 10-year average, per Urbanation. Surging days on market (up 43 per cent year-over-year). Diving rents as those who can’t sell try to generate cash flow. ‘Deeply cash flow negative’ rents for investors at 80 per cent loan-to-value — and that’s despite falling mortgage rates, says Rabidoux.”

“More aggressive price discounting from developers who held back units (‘Many were hoping they could sell them at inflated prices once the condo corporation was registered,’ says mortgage broker Ross Taylor of Concierge Mortgage Group.) Supply from the small percentage of panicked sellers who can no longer qualify for a mortgage on the condo they overpaid on a few years ago, often because it won’t appraise for the purchase price. You get the picture.”

“Pro tip: ‘RBC is often the lender of choice for new construction projects,’ Taylor says. ‘RBC locks in the value at the purchase price no matter what the eventual truth is. This is a big boon to buyers whose homes are now valued less than the purchase price.’ In the GTA, TRREB says third-quarter condo resales dropped 4.4 per cent while listings jumped 10.6 per cent. But that’s before the government’s bombshell announcement that it was slashing Canada’s population for the next two years. Talk about kicking the legs out from under a market. Condos in places like metro Toronto, Vancouver and Montreal are heavily tenanted by temporary residents and immigrants.”

“By the way, Canada’s annual population has never fallen in records going back to Confederation in 1867. Why the feds had to play economic Russian roulette and make population growth negative (-0.2 per cent a year for two years) is beyond logic. Rebalancing housing demand to supply is one thing; levelling an immigrant-dependent economy in the process is another. And God forbid that the Bank of Canada chooses not to drop rates the 100 basis points the bond market ’s projecting. If they don’t, the condo demand picture could get even uglier. Even if you have Warren Buffett’s credit score and can easily get financed, timing is everything. ‘I’d sit on the sideline and see what plays out for the next year,’ Rabidoux says about condo bottom picking.”