It Can Be Like Catching A Falling Knife

A report from KPNX in Arizona. “Halpern Residential Founder, Trevor Halpern, said in Phoenix, the local market is not experiencing the traditional presidential election real estate decline. Halpern said sellers need to price and prepare their homes correctly to attract buyers. And in the Phoenix market, there’s a little more supply than demand. ‘You as a buyer right now has some power now,’ Halpern said. ‘If we see mortgage interest rates continue to adjust downward, the rule of thumb is that for every 1% the mortgage rates come down, we see a million buyers across the country enter the marketplace. So you as a buyer right now has some really good negotiating power.'”

ABC Action News in Florida. “According to the rate hike request, Citizens is pushing for an average near-14% increase in 2025 for many of its 1.2 million policyholders. Margaret Bowles’s Dana Shores home flooded in Helene, and she has Citizens Property Insurance on a rental she owns in St. Pete. She’s hoping the state shows mercy after this hurricane season. For storm victims like Bowles, that’s the last thing they need. ‘Have some mercy, have some mercy on folks,’ she said. ‘Because even insurance doesn’t make you whole, we are finding that filing all these claims that it’s not going to make us whole either way. So we need a break.'”

The Real Deal on Illinois. “After more than two decades as a broker, Carrie McCormick, of @properties Christie’s International Real Estate, has developed the skill of the moment: pricing luxury downtown Chicago condos correctly even when that price is on a downward curve. If you’re a luxury condo owner trying to sell, the price might be lower than you expected. ‘I have to be honest with them and say, ‘Listen, this is where we’re at with the market. … If you, Mr. or Mrs. Seller, want to sell this home, this is what we need to do,’ she said. ‘When the market’s going up, everyone’s a winner. It’s easy to look good with your clients. They’re making money. Everyone’s happy,’ said Mike Golden, co-founder of @properties Christie’s International Real Estate. ‘But when the market is choppy … it can be like catching a falling knife.'”

The Real Deal on California. “Home buyers in San Francisco are sitting out the market this fall, waiting for lower interest rates, back-to-the office pressures and even election results to tell them when to move. But even with money to spend, buyers aren’t finding much out there, with sellers holding out for a market comeback or a bigger drop in interest rates that will let them move on without having to mourn the loss of their 3 percent rates or 2021 valuations. Compass agent Ruth Krishnan noted that in the market right now, buyers are stymied by the ‘paradox of choice’ that always comes around about this time: they may see something they like, but will always be wondering if something better is going to come along later. ‘I think that buyers’ agents have to get comfortable saying, ‘Hey, we’re going to attempt to negotiate this for you 100 percent of the time but in the event that we can’t, then you need to be ready to pay this,’ she said.”

The Providence Journal. “A Rhode Island mortgage broker has admitted to misappropriating $1.5 million in investors’ money in an elaborate Ponzi scheme and then spending the money for personal expenses and to pay other investors. Joseph Giuttari, owner of Hybrid Capital Group, THE FENS Co., and Realty Funding Advisors, among other entities, pleaded guilty Thursday to wire fraud and filing a false tax return for failing to report more than $500,000 in income, U.S. Attorney Zachary Cunha’s office announced. In addition, Giuttari, of Cranston, admitted to theft of government property for filing fraudulent applications for economic disaster loans during the COVID pandemic, netting him $160,000 that he spent for personal use and pay investors under the scheme.”

“He misappropriated funds from borrowers by inflating how much they owed to investors for loans and he used borrowers’ names without their knowledge or authorization to get money from investors. He also created fraudulent promissory notes and real estate security instruments using forged signatures of borrowers. Court documents show that the amount of loss between $3.5 million and $9.5 million. According to court records, he spent the money on personal expenses such as credit card payments, mortgage payments for his home, cash withdrawals, and payments for his own international investments. He admitted, too, to falsely stating in his 2019 income tax return that his income was $22,176 when it was actually at least $541,000.”

Bisnow on Texas. “Twelve multifamily properties backing loans of at least $10M are scheduled to appear at Tuesday’s Harris County foreclosure auction, up from just a handful last month, as the number of apartment complexes facing potential foreclosure steadily rises. Although less than half of the properties filed to appear will likely be auctioned on the day, the sheer number of filings is indicative of a wave of distress crashing over Houston’s multifamily market, said Terri Clifton, president of Better World Properties. While some lenders find it preferable to hand off a loan to another borrower behind the scenes, avoiding the costs associated with foreclosure, deferred maintenance and marketing the property for sale, that isn’t always feasible. ‘Sometimes that lender would love for one of these key players to take over and take the loan over,’ Clifton said. ‘But they’re doing their underwriting, and it’s not worth what they loaned them.'”

Wall Street Journal. “The biggest apartment construction boom in four decades flooded the market with new supply over the past two years. The vacancy rate, or the share of apartment units that are empty, stopped rising for the first time in three years last quarter, as demand for apartments rose to its highest levels since 2021, according to CoStar. Austin’s vacancy rate, if new buildings are included, is the highest in the country at over 15%, according to CoStar. Rent growth for new leases in the Texas capitol ranks last among major metros during the past year. Landlords of new luxury buildings are still offering big concessions, such as months of free rent, to fill up units. ‘Basically, the worst apartment market in the country right now is Austin,’ said Matt Rosenthal, managing partner of multifamily investor Eastham Capital.”

Mansion Global on Canada. “Eve Lewis has watched Toronto real estate explode over four decades from the front row. Today, Lewis herself is a builder. As CEO of Woodcliffe, Lewis specializes in residential high-rises that integrate heritage structures—local parlance for historically significant buildings. Lewis talked to Mansion Global about how heritage elements can affect condo prices, why Toronto’s ‘on-steroids’ condo market stalled, and why luxury is in the details. Eve Lewis: ‘It’s incredibly slow, but we’re coming off a 20-year high where almost every single year the market became more fueled with price and volume. It was so frothy―a market on steroids. There were as many as 30,000 new condo sales in a year. As of October, there were less than 4,000 sales. That’s a dramatic, drastic decrease.'”

“In some cities, agents say the luxury market is bulletproof because buyers are so well-resourced. Is that the case in Toronto? ‘The market for luxury homes is not bulletproof in Toronto. Certain neighborhoods are holding their own and selling well, like [east-side] Leslieville and Summerhill [just north of downtown]. If something’s priced right in good neighborhoods, it’s selling. But there are five or six houses on the market for more than C$20 million, and none of them are selling.'”

From Global News. “The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corp. (CMHC) said Monday that the mortgage delinquency rate — the proportion of Canadians who have missed payments on their mortgage for more than 90 days — continued to rise in the second quarter of 2024. Tania Bourassa-Ochoa, the Crown corp.’s deputy chief economist, says the CMHC expects the ‘sticky upwards trend’ in mortgage delinquencies will mean a return to those pre-pandemic levels by the end of this year or early 2025. ‘We have already been seeing this financial pressure mount up, generally speaking, amongst homeowners,’ she tells Global News. ‘Credit card and auto delinquencies can be leading indicators of mortgage delinquency rates, so these patterns suggest that mortgage delinquency will continue to increase into 2025,’ the report read.”

“Some 1.2 million Canadians have fixed-rate mortgages due for renewal in 2025, CMHC says. The vast majority of these households initiated or renewed their mortgages when the central bank policy rate was at or below one per cent, the report notes. Bourassa-Ochoa says the CMHC calculates the average homeowner renewing next year will see their monthly payments balloon by 30 per cent.”

Property Reporter. “Holiday home data shows a rise in holiday properties since before the pandemic and according to an expert holiday home insurer, some areas are turning into ghost towns, with homes left unoccupied and on the market for sale. With a downturn in bookings, council tax doubling in some areas, the furnished holiday lets tax relief being withdrawn and the expected rise in capital gains tax has led to a surge in holiday homes being put up for sale. The UK Government has unveiled increased taxes for second homes aimed at tackling the growing issue of the lack of affordable homes across the country. Places like Salcombe in Devon and Whitby in North Yorkshire are at risk of becoming ‘ghost towns’ outside of the tourist months.”

“Phil Schofield from Schofields Insurance commented: ‘The tax changes are already impacting the holiday property market, many towns and villages are slowly becoming ‘ghost towns’ as owners sell their holiday lets.’ He concluded: ‘The holiday letting industry should be supported to help ensure that tourist areas remain vibrant and thriving year-round. However, the recent tax changes, increased costs and a downturn in bookings have led to an oversupply of second homes being put up for sale in some areas.'”

Domain News in Australia. “Most Melbourne suburbs have recorded house price falls or only marginal increases over the past 12 months, amid high interest rates and a build-up of homes for sale. The biggest median house price fall was recorded in South Yarra, where prices fell 20.7 per cent over the year to September to a median of $1.8 million. It was followed by Riddells Creek, near Gisborne, down 17.3 per cent, and Armadale, down 15.8 per cent. Unit prices had the biggest falls in Chadstone (down 24.5 per cent to $540,000), Toorak (22.1 per cent to $915,000) and Sunshine (15.3 per cent to $470,000).”

“Recent home buyer and builder Dale Cheesman said the weak market had given his family of five a chance to upgrade to a larger home. He said moving from Carnegie into one of his goal suburbs of Malvern, Malvern East or Glen Iris was harder to justify when prices were more expensive. ‘I would have liked to have gotten more for the property I sold, but I had to realise that everyone needs to drop their expectations on what their property is worth, me especially,’ he said. ‘I felt like I got a pretty good deal with the purchase I made.'”

“Cheesman’s broker, Entourage director Damien Roylance, said an excess of listings had tipped the market in buyers’ favour, but only if they were willing to avoid the highly sought-after new and renovated homes. ‘People who are not scared of getting their hands dirty, they’re still getting good land size in a good part of town,’ Roylance said. ‘It’s definitely a buyers’ market at the moment and especially as we come into spring.'”

The New York Times. “Banks in China are foreclosing on a growing number of apartments after homeowners could not pay their mortgages, as the country’s housing crash threatens the financial system. The roster of homes seized and listed for auction leaped 43% last year, according to official data. Numerous Chinese banks have disclosed increases in mortgage defaults during the first half of this year. The downward spiral in apartment prices has since accelerated. The legal system is struggling to keep up with evictions. In some cities, like Qingdao, foreclosed apartments are being sold at auction before the occupants have moved out. The buyers must persuade them to leave, finance and foreclosure specialists said.”

“They face other losses related to the real estate meltdown, including on loans to local governments, property companies in default and buyers of unfinished apartments that developers never delivered. To make matters worse, corporate borrowers in China have long posted real estate holdings as collateral. Bank managers are finding that the collateral is worth much less than when the loans were extended. In a country with 90 million empty apartments after a decades-long construction boom, however, the evictions do not seem to be causing homelessness. Many foreclosures involve second homes, often occupied by friends and relatives of the owner, and seldom involve the primary residences of families.”

“Real estate prices have fallen almost 30% from their peak in 2021. One factor that might contain the foreclosure problem over the next several years is that many homeowners have prepaid part of their mortgages or made large down payments. Even after the big drop in apartment prices, many people still own apartments that are worth more than the remaining balances on their mortgages. One Qingdao homeowner, Lei Wang, said he regretted ever buying an apartment. Wang, a chemicals salesperson, said his apartment had lost a fifth of its value since he paid about $300,000 for it just four years ago.”

“‘I thought I bought the apartment at a reasonable price, but I didn’t expect the real estate market to decline so much,’ he said. ‘If I hadn’t bought an apartment and the housing prices were like this, I think it would have been better to rent.'”