They’re Sitting Around On The Market And Prices Are Dropping

A report from Curbed. “‘I think we will see some big numbers transact again starting around January,’ says Michael Rankin, the managing partner of Sotheby’s International Realty in Washington, D.C. Some of this enthusiasm is dampened by Trump’s threats to slash the federal workforce, shrinking the middle and upper-middle class that accounts for most deals. ‘My team has had a number of calls from people at agencies like the HSS and EPA, places that would likely see cuts first, saying, ‘We don’t know what’s going to go on, but we might need to sell,’ says Eva Davis, an executive vice-president at Compass. There is also concern about what will happen if Trump revokes the home rule — a 50-year-old law that allows D.C. to manage its own municipal affairs. ‘People are saying, ‘I don’t want to be here for that,’ or are worried about the effect such a move would have on home prices.'”

From Fox 13. “Florida’s housing market is experiencing a significant slowdown, with home sales falling statewide, including in the Tampa Bay area. The biggest factors driving this trend are rising insurance and HOA fees, along with the impact of the recent hurricane season. Many people are selling in flood zones, and likewise, people aren’t buying in the hardest hit areas. ‘We’re not going to move back into our house. It was very traumatic. We actually have a contract on a new house. We’re not going to come back here,’ said Jody Hameroff, a St. Petersburg resident in the flooded neighborhood of Shore Acres.”

House Beautiful. “Certain cities and towns in the U.S. have struggling seller’s markets right now. Of the cities on this list, the tourist destination Key West has the highest median number of days on the market at 105 days. Towns in Florida currently account for 36 percent of all locations that are struggling to sell properties. However, Key West is likely so high because they have a fairly high cost of living, which is reflected in the median home price of $1.27 million. In a town with a population of around 25,500, out of 1,346 home listings, only eight saw price increases while 224 experienced price reductions.”

Fox 23 in Oklahoma. “Broken cinder blocks, cut wires, and crushed cables are all that remain on the concrete slab where Monica Badzinski’s tiny home once sat. ‘I have always wanted a tiny home, to live sustainably and that is why I bought these ten acres,’ said Badzinski. She said in less than 15 minutes, her dream was no longer a reality. She had temporarily moved out of the home due to issues with the home’s builder and inspections. She said the inspection company told her they did not know if the tiny home was safe to live in. She said her tiny home was taken around midnight on November 12 off of South Pinehill Road in Sapulpa. Badzinski said she moved into her dream home in 2022 and only had the chance to live in it for about three months. ‘It is unbelievable. It is just unbelievable, especially since I have been fighting this battle with the tiny home people and then this happens,’ said Badzinski.”

The Idaho Statesman. “A battle broke out in October over changing plans for housing at the Idaho Central Credit Union towers under construction at 200 N. 4th St. in downtown Boise. Meridian’s Ahlquist Development, which is developing the two-tower building with offices in a 13-story tower and residential units in the 11-story one, is set to seek formal approval on new plans for the development Dec. 2. The request comes after a he-said-she-said quarrel between Ahlquist Development, the city of Boise and nearby neighbors when Ahlquist sought to shrink the project from over 100 rental apartments to 69 for-sale condominiums. Ahlquist spent months trying to figure out how to make the development pencil out after poor market conditions delayed the start of construction on it for over a year.”

“Dan Everhart, a nearby resident and member of Better Change for East Downtown, said that if approved, the changes to the agreement would set a precedent that could affect other neighborhoods too. ‘The way we see it, the only justification to reduce ICCU’s housing by a third is to assert that the city of Boise no longer believes itself to have a housing shortage,’ Everhart said. ‘If, on the other hand, we still need housing, then (the Planning and Zoning Commission) and the City Council should not allow 100 units of market-rate housing to be replaced with 64 units of million-dollar-plus condos.'”

Silicon Valley in California. “The loan for a property where a massive housing development in downtown San Jose was once proposed — but never built — has flopped into a mortgage delinquency that could trigger a foreclosure. Full Standard Properties, an affiliate that is controlled by China-based real estate firm Z&L Properties, is in default on a loan of $19.5 million that Shanghai Commercial Bank provided to the real estate firm in 2019 for the site at 70 South Almaden Ave., according to Santa Clara County public documents. This loan default represents the largest in a string of setbacks for Z&L Properties, which at one point was being hailed as a developer poised to bring a string of new towers and dramatic changes to the downtown San Jose skyline.”

“Instead of several highrises, Z&L Properties affiliates have managed to build one project, a double-tower, 600-unit residential complex at 188 West St. James St. near San Pedro Square. Each of the towers contains about 300 condominiums. ‘Z&L never had a feasible plan for how they were going to develop all of these projects in downtown San Jose,’ said Bob Staedler, principal executive with Silicon Valley Synergy, a land-use consultancy. ‘They never had the wherewithal to develop multiple projects.’ This news organization placed a phone call to the Z&L Properties Bay Area office in Foster City. The phone number was no longer in service as of Tuesday. The company’s phone number has been out of service for months.”

The Real Deal on California. “Harmit Mann has bought a 198,200-square-foot office complex in south Oakland for $13 million, nearly 70 percent less than it traded for five years ago. The seller was Los Angeles-based Ares Commercial Real Estate, which listed the property for sale last month after it seized the building through foreclosure in June when Walnut Creek-based Vertical Ventures defaulted on a $37.5 million mortgage loan. The deal works out to $65 per square foot, 67 percent less than its last traded price. The offices were 56 percent leased last month. The Landing lies in the Hegenberger corridor near Interstate 880, among the most crime-plagued areas of the city, causing numerous businesses to close or flee, according to the San Francisco Chronicle.”

“Other office buildings across Oakland have traded hands at discount prices. HP Investors sold a 31,500-square-foot office building at 1700 Broadway for 80 percent less than it paid in 2017, according to the newspaper. An Uptown office tower at 180 Grand sold for 82 percent less than what it was purchased for seven years ago, after Lakeside Group bought first the debt on the property, then acquired it through a deed in lieu of foreclosure. Price per square foot reached as low as $32 when Kaiser sold its office property at 1950 Franklin and as high as $350 for 1515 Webster, which was purchased by its occupant earlier this year, according to the Business Times.”

The Vancouver Sun in Canada. “In the House of Commons last year, Vancouver East NDP MP Jenny Kwan lambasted the powerful ‘profiteers’ that ‘financialize’ rental housing. The Liberals, and the Conservatives before them, have long encouraged the creation of real estate investment trusts, commonly known as REITs, through which corporations ‘make a killing,’ Kwan said. ‘Real estate investment trusts enjoy preferential tax treatment, and the seven largest REITs alone have saved a combined $1.5 billion through federal tax loopholes,’ Kwan said in a private member’s bill.”

“Such corporate ownership scenarios are increasingly the way forward, since the once-popular investment strategy known as pre-sales — in which individuals buy condo units before they’re built with the aim of eventually renting them out — has in the past couple of years lost its appeal. As realtor estate analysts Steve Saretsky and David Hutchinson say, putting a downpayment on a pre-sale condo only makes sense when you can assume its price will rise year after year. But those days are over. UBC business professor Thomas Davidoff tends to agree, in part because it has become increasingly unwise for individual investors to dive into what was the condo craze. ‘Unless one is extraordinarily wealthy, putting a large chunk of net worth into a single apartment in a single building in a single location, to be built by a single developer, puts a lot of eggs into one basket. It’s the opposite of financial diversification.'”

Bisnow London. “Real estate valuation indexes suggest that office values are down by 25% to 30% since the prepandemic peak. But the average figure spit out by an index hides a much bleaker reality for the kind of office that no longer makes a tenant’s heart sing. ‘Outside London now, with offices that aren’t absolute best in class, values are, on a good day, half what they were. On a bad day, a quarter. It’s staggering how much the value has collapsed,’ BNP Paribas Real Estate UK Head of National Capital Markets Hugh White told the audience. ‘If you look at the MSCI figures, they’re talking about being 20% off. It’s never that. The reality is far, far worse.'”

“White’s comments primarily referred to offices outside of London, in areas like the commuter belt of the south-east, where working from home meant there was little demand for out-of-town offices, or places where the rents that could be commanded by upgrading assets did not justify the cost of upgrading them. Yet London is facing the same issue. ‘There are piles of secondary offices out there, either in the wrong locations or which just are not fit for purpose,’ GPE Senior Investment Manager Alexa Baden-Powell said. ‘And if you run appraisals on them and you try to estimate the amount of capex you’ve got to invest to really turn them around, it just doesn’t stack, because the office rents are not going to be what they were on those offices.'”

From Domain News. “The number of Australian homes bought by foreigners fell last year, as high stamp duty costs deter potential buyers. The downturn reflects the government’s efforts to reduce foreign investment and cut migration, experts say. Plus Agency managing director Peter Li said the higher fees and taxes compounded the cost of holding property in Australia as a foreigner. ‘That’s pushing foreign buyers out of the market. Even if you could afford to buy it, you have to be able to afford to keep it, and that’s why people are selling,’ Li said. Li said they could once sell an entire development to foreign buyers before the introduction of the FIRB application fees and surcharges, but would now struggle to sell one in 10 to them.”

“OH Property Group’s Henny Stier noted fewer foreign buyers in Sydney’s north and north shore. ‘A lot of new builds and apartments in places like Epping have dropped … if they’re not buying, then local buyers are not buying them, so they’re sitting around on the market and prices are dropping,’ Stier said. It was more difficult to move cash from countries like China and Indonesia where there were strict limits on withdrawals, Stier said. Stier added the Australian government’s attempts to disincentivise foreign investment were working.”

“Ray White Balwyn director Helen Yan has noticed a downturn in Chinese buyers since the start of this year, when the federal government paused applications for the significant-investor visa which requires recipients to invest $5 million in Australia. ‘That’s why the high-end property [market] has slowed down a lot,’ Yan said.”