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The Market Doesn’t Have That Rocket-Propelling Fuel

A report from Bisnow on Washington. “Nationally, economists are almost unanimously expecting and preparing for the next recession. But here in Seattle, we may do a bit better than the rest of the world thanks to the focus on technology jobs, said Urban Renaissance Group CEO Pat Callahan. Seattlites, with their continued booming commercial real estate scene, could be out of touch with the feeling of fear in other parts of the country, he said. ‘We are in a bubble,’ Callahan said. ‘We are at highs in everything. But that’s not how it is everywhere.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Chinese purchases of U.S. real estate last year dwindled to their lowest level since 2012, as Beijing kept up the pressure on Chinese investors to bring cash home during a period of worsening economic growth. Insurers, conglomerates and other investors from mainland China were net sellers of $854 million of U.S. commercial real estate in the fourth quarter, according to Real Capital Analytics.”

“That marked the third-straight quarter Chinese investors sold more U.S. property than they bought, the first time ever these investors have been sellers for that long a stretch. The selling during most of 2018 marked a powerful reversal from the previous five years, when Chinese investors went on a massive buying spree, often handily outbidding other investors for U.S. trophy properties.”

“And while Chinese buyers never represented more than a fraction of the activity in any major U.S. city, the big checks they wrote helped push values higher in certain segments of the market. ‘Without that big push from Chinese investors, the market doesn’t have that rocket-propelling fuel to it,’ said Arthur Margon, a partner at real-estate consulting firm Rosen Consulting Group.”

From CNN. “The most expensive home in the country sold in New York for $238 million. Hedge fund billionaire Ken Griffin closed on the Manhattan property at 220 Central Park South his spokesperson said. This sale is the most anyone has paid for a home in the United States.”

“Miller Samuel CEO Jonathan Miller, cautions that tracking the most expensive homes sold in the country is not an exact science. ‘There aren’t as many as you think,’ Miller said. ‘The banner year was 2014. In 2013 and 2014 I started noticing every couple of weeks there was a story that said, ‘this was the highest asking price in the country,’ or ‘this was the highest in California.’ In 2015 I started looking back and realized that many of those hadn’t sold. It was the pocket listings, the ones that weren’t splashed everywhere, that were selling.'”

“Miller said when he first heard about the property at 220 Central Park South in 2014 it was listed for $250 million. ‘The sale for $238 million has nothing to do with the current market. It has everything to do with 2015, which was around peak luxury,’ he said. ‘In New York the top end is softening right now because of over-development.'”

From National Real Estate Investor. “Student housing properties are taking a little longer to pre-lease this year. ‘There certainly are several over-built student housing markets around the country,’ says Frederick Pierce, CEO of Pierce Education Properties, an investor in, developer and manager of student housing assets based in San Diego.”

“‘Oversaturation is more to blame than demand in most markets, and many will rebound as development activity moderates,’ says Taylor Gunn, director of student housing for Axiometrics, a RealPage company based in Richardson, Texas.”

“All the new student housing beds developers have planned are finally beginning to weigh on the student housing market. The percentage of student housing beds that had signed leases for the school year that began in the fall of 2018 was just 74.4 percent in May, according to Axiometrics. That’s nearly a percentage point below the pre-leasing rate at the same time the year before, when 75.1 percent of beds had pre-leased for the fall.”

The Denver Channel on Colorado. “After experiencing years of rapidly escalating rents, tenants in metro Denver are starting to catch a break. Teo Nicolais, president of Nicolais, LLC, a Denver real estate investment company, said rents are declining because more apartments are being built. Lots more.”

“‘When you have over 25,000 new apartment units added to the metro area, that creates a lot of supply that is hard to fill,’ Nicolais said. ‘That puts downward pressure on rents.'”

From CBS 4 in Colorado. “There is good news for those looking to rent in the Denver metro area: rent prices are down. And even better, some places are offering free amenities to lure renters. According to the report, a total of 50,793 new apartments have been built in the metro area over the past five years.”

“According to the report, a total of 50,793 new apartments have been built in the metro area over the past five years. With apartment complexes competing for renters, they are not only offering one month to six weeks of free rent, but the fight is on in the amenity battle.”

“‘We have a car wash, we have a pet wash, we have the steam room, the spa, the gym, the bar, the shuttle; a lot,’ said Hannah Lewellyn, Manager of Business Development for Country Club Towers. As great as the amenities are, Hannah knows they have to keep innovating to stay in the game, and that is good for renters. ‘It’s exciting where we are at, but I think the biggest goal and the biggest hope is that here in a few months, we have the newest, craziest thing.'”

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This Post Has 44 Comments

  1. ‘The percentage of student housing beds that had signed leases for the school year that began in the fall of 2018 was just 74.4 percent in May’

    That’s all you need to know about the student housing bubble.

      1. The news that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will become a senior adviser to Citadel, the Chicago-based hedge fund, has renewed attention on the tendency of former regulators and economic policy makers to move to financial institutions once leaving office.

        The story, first reported by the New York Times, included a brief interview with the former Fed chairman:

        Mr. Bernanke said he was sensitive to the public’s anxieties about the “revolving door” between Wall Street and Washington and chose to go to Citadel, in part, because it “is not regulated by the Federal Reserve and I won’t be doing lobbying of any sort.”

        It’s true that as a hedge fund, Citadel is not directly regulated by the central bank. But what about those public concerns? Here’s a quick tour of the news archives from recent years, about whether or not the Fed and Citadel ever have any interest in each others’ doings.

        https://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2015/04/16/how-citadel-and-the-fed-crossed-paths-before-the-hedge-fund-hired-ben-bernanke/

        1. “The news that former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke will become a senior adviser to Citadel…”

          “It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.” —George Carlin

  3. Redwood City, CA Housing Prices Crater 17% YOY As San Francisco Rental Rates Plummet

    /https://www.movoto.com/redwood-city-ca/market-trends

  4. “‘We have a car wash, we have a pet wash, we have the steam room, the spa, the gym, the bar, the shuttle; a lot,’ said Hannah Lewellyn, Manager of Business Development for Country Club Towers.

    lol just lower the rent morons!

    1. Srsly.

      But I think it’s a similar situation to the developers that keep adding extras instead of dropping the price — which angers those who have already bought and lowers the comps.

      These apartments want to keep the face value of the rent high, so that when you renew you are locked into that full face value. They know people HATE moving. That’s their game.

    2. “…the gym…”

      That news video clip of the gym was staged, complete with the hottie and hunk working-out. 🙂

    3. “lol just lower the rent morons!”

      No can do. If you lower the rent then the illusion of rents-that-make-sense-for-an-investor evaporates and thus the hefty value (aka hefty price) that is supported by this illusion also evaporates.

      And as the hefty price evaporates for the rentals the hefty equity value for all the comps get to take a hit. Not a good thing to occur in a seventy-percent consumer-based economy.

      Better to find better ways to keep the illusion of high rental rates intact.

      1. Which is why we’re going to start to see “Happy Endings” branded massage services before they cut rent.

  5. “Nationally, economists are almost unanimously expecting and preparing for the next recession.”

    Not to worry: A closely-watched pot never boils over.

    1. Why not just throw several trillion more dollars of QE onto the inferno to avoid a recession, and continue to expand the Fed’s balance sheet? It’s unlimited, right?

    1. Again, the sample size is too small. Using the same data, you could say prices increased ten percent in just one month! median listing price is only meaningful if your sample has the same distribution as the market as a whole. This is often not the case with even large numbers, but when you are talking only 15 homes (which on average are smaller), it means nothing.

      1. You will get everything but affordable housing until the bitter, bitter end. By the time affordable housing avails itself, you won’t have a job to even pay for it. Welcome to the United States of Oligarch’s Greed and Corruption.

        1. I’m retired from the Air Force, so they can’t fire me anymore, LOL. Hopefully Uncle Sam will keep printing enough money to pay my piddly pension.

          1. At least you’re actually deserving of a pension, unlike those fatties that did nothing but sit around and hassle taxpayers for 30 years at some desk job for the local county.

    1. “Princess Young, a Transportation Security Administration employee, visits a food pantry for furloughed government workers last week in Baltimore.”

      That sis’ta doesn’t look very hungry to me. 🙂

      1. Haven’t looked at the article or picture…don’t need to. But it does remind me of a recent study that I just heard about. It concluded that statistically, almost all the “racial preference” (discrimination) seen on dating sites could actually be explained by BMI. Not sure if they proved causation but the correlation was extremely strong.

        1. Why do grocery $tores require one to buy$ x6 2 liter$ of $oda in order to get the .99 cent$ price?

    2. “Functionally, one to two missed paychecks sent many federal workers—many of whom have solidly middle-class or upper-middle-class incomes—temporarily into the ranks of poverty.”

      A nation of dummies. Seriously.

      1. Average TSA worker gets $48k. They start at $29k. Did you want to pay them more, so they dont live paycheck to paycheck like 70% of America? I dont.

        2. live paycheck to paycheck

          The choice to save vs the choice to spend every last dime is not entirely a function of salary.

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