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Real Estate Websites Have Built Their Business Models At The Expense Of Homeowners By Showing Negative Insights On Their Listings

A report from Business Insider. “Nowadays, the Zestimate is arguably the most popular — and polarizing — number in real estate. Many industry insiders, however, regard the number as a starting point at best and dangerously misguided at worst. Real-estate agents recount arguments with sellers who reject their pricing advice, choosing instead to take the Zestimate as the word of God. One meme likens its disciples to adults who still believe in Santa. Zillow itself lost hundreds of millions of dollars during the pandemic when it relied on its algorithm to buy homes at what turned out to be inflated prices, part of an ill-fated attempt to flip homes at scale.”

“In Austin, for instance, a little more than 94% of on-market homes end up selling for within 10% of the last Zestimate before the deal goes through. But Zillow also keeps a second Zestimate humming in the background, one that never sees the light of day. This version doesn’t factor in the list price — it’s carrying on as if the house never went up for sale at all. Instead, it’s used to calculate the ‘off-market’ error rate. When the house sells, the difference between the final price and this shadow algorithm reveals an error rate that’s much less satisfactory: In Austin, only about 66% of these ‘off-market Zestimates’ come within 10% of the actual sale price. In Atlanta, it’s 65%; Chicago, 58%; Nashville, 63%; Seattle, 69%. At today’s median home price of $420,000, a 10% error would mean a difference of more than $40,000.”

The Washington Post. “When prospective home buyers come up empty-handed, seeing a ‘sold’ sign on an ideal home that never showed up during their search rubs salt into the wound. What’s frustrating to so many is these nonpublic sales, often known as off-market listings, shortcut the transparency that’s meant to inform the buying and selling process: Every home that’s listed by a real estate agent and marketed to the public is supposed to be visible through one of the hundreds of databases known as Multiple Listing Services (MLS). Now, an internal battle is heating up between real estate brokerages over off-market listings — just as the dust is starting to settle on commission rule changes triggered by lawsuits against brokerages and the National Association of Realtors (NAR).”

“At stake is an NAR rule enacted in 2019, known as the ‘Clear Cooperation Policy’ (CCP), that requires agents to list a property on their MLS within one business day after marketing it to the public. Under an off-market listing (also known more pejoratively as a pocket listing), an agent markets the property before putting it on the MLS — using back channels to expedite the deal between private parties. This tactic is allowed under the CCP as long as the homes are marketed privately among agents within a brokerage or individually to specific potential buyers.”

“Now, a brokerage giant, Compass, wants to repeal this rule altogether — in effect, opening a bigger window for off-market listings — because it allegedly forces the release of too much information that hurts sellers. ‘Using MLS data … real estate websites have built their business models at the expense of homeowners by showing negative insights on their listings, such as days on market, price drops and home value estimates,’ said Robert Reffkin, CEO of Compass. ‘The CCP removes a seller’s right to choose how to market their home to meet their individual needs.'”

From WUSF. “A deadline for Florida condominium inspections is quickly approaching. Tara Stone, CEO of Stone Building Solutions, a building engineering firm based in St. Petersburg, said what they’re seeing is years, and sometimes decades, of maintenance being neglected, leading to failed inspections and higher costs for condo owners. ‘That lack of maintenance isn’t because that people don’t necessarily want to do the repairs. It’s always that there’s not the money in the bank to do repairs.’ Stone said condo owner mentality has trended toward concerns about granite in the kitchen or how close they were to the pool, and not the reserves.”

“Republican Sen. Jennifer Bradley is from north central Florida and a leading lawmaker on condo reforms. Bradey said despite complaints from condo owners, the vast majority of increases over the last several years has been due to rising insurance premiums. ‘Insurance premiums for condo associations have doubled since 2022 and these systems exist together. If you are not able to keep your building in good physical health, you’re not going to be insurable. The private market saw Surfside collapse. They witnessed the horror with everyone else, insurance companies, and banks, and so if you don’t make sure your building is repaired and that you have money available to make those repairs, it will be exceedingly difficult, regardless of what the legislature does, to be insurable or to get loans to make those needed repairs in your building.'”

Capital & Main in California. “As Los Angeles prepares to host tens of thousands of visitors for the 2028 Summer Olympics, city officials are moving to stop property owners from illegally listing their homes as vacation rentals and devouring L.A.’s already strained housing supply. The L.A. Housing Department now estimates that 7,500, or about 60% of the city’s short-term rentals in multi-unit buildings, are illegal, according to a memo sent by the Housing Department’s interim general manager, Tricia Keane, to the City Council. Councilmember Nithya Raman, who chairs the council’s Housing and Homelessness Committee. She said very few violators were receiving citations and fines ‘because of how broken the process is.'”

“At a committee hearing in early December, the proposals faced opposition from several property owners, who urged the committee not to impose stricter rules. ‘I have become absolutely reliant on Airbnb to make ends meet,’ said Joni Day, a freelance TV producer.”

CBS Colorado. “Aurora police detained 14 suspects early Tuesday morning after officers responded to a report of a home invasion with weapons. This happened at The Edge at Lowry apartments, the same apartment complex where a viral video surfaced earlier this year showing suspects terrorizing residents with weapons. That video prompted President-elect Donald Trump to target the city in his deportation plan during a campaign stop earlier this fall. Just before 2:30 a.m., officers responded to a report of an armed home invasion involving a stabbing and kidnapping at an apartment in the 1200 block of Dallas Street.”

“‘The victims were held against their will, they were bound, both the male and the female, they were pistol-whipped, they were beaten, they were victimized, they were terrorized,’ said Aurora Police Chief Todd Chamberlain during a news conference on Tuesday morning. During the time they were held, Chamberlain said the suspects went to the victims’ apartment and ‘burglarized and took over that apartment… taking items of value that belonged to the victims.’ Police said the victims were held for several hours until they convinced the suspects to release them, promising to not call authorities. ‘We are not going to rest until we verify that every individual involved is in custody,’ said Chamberlain. ‘Based on the actions that I saw, based on how this event unfolded this is 100% gang activity.'”

New York Daily News. “Groups on the frontlines of New York City’s street homelessness crisis fear they’ll be forced to lay off dozens of staffers next month due to a $4 million funding cut included in this year’s city government budget, the Daily News has learned. ‘This isn’t a place where we’re requesting a cut, but where we’re working with [the mayor’s budget office] to address funding needs on a year-by-year basis,’ Wasow Park, who oversees the Department of Homeless Services, testified at the hearing after Manhattan Councilwoman Gale Brewer questioned why the funding is about to run out. ‘We need the $8 million back,’ Brewer told Wasow Park. ‘We do not need it cut. We are losing people who would be keeping those off the streets.'”

“Mayor Eric Adams has focused in particular on breaking up street encampments, an issue he touched on during a town hall event on the Upper West Side on Monday night. ‘We had encampments everywhere,’ he said at the event, referring to when he took office in January 2022. ‘We made an agreement that we were going to take all the encampments down and put people into care. We were beat up. We were beat up. People said, ‘No, people have a right to sleep on the street with no shoes at 13-degree weather and yell and scream and walk the street.’ I said, ‘Like hell they do.’ That’s what it took.'”

From Bisnow. “A New Jersey real estate investor was sentenced to five years in prison this week for his role in a mortgage fraud scheme involving Freddie Mac. Aron Puretz was sentenced to the maximum possible sentence and ordered to pay $22M in restitution after he pleaded guilty to a $55M fraud scheme that included forged financial statements and purchase contracts. While leading Apex Equity Group, Puretz and his co-conspirators misled lenders about at least three properties from 2016 to 2022.”

“Puretz pleaded guilty to presenting inflated purchase and sales documents to Freddie Mac to secure a mortgage that exceeded a property’s true purchase price in 2017. Two years later, Puretz purchased the Big Country Chateau apartments in Little Rock, Arkansas, but hid his role in the deal from Freddie Mac because the lender would not approve loans for his properties. By 2020 the fraud had gotten larger, with Puretz and his co-conspirators acquiring the Troy Technology Park outside Detroit for $43M before presenting lenders with fake documents putting the sale price at $70M. The Troy Technology Park case also led to the conviction of Puretz’s son and Boruch Drillman on one count of wire fraud each, according to The Real Deal, which first reported the sentencing. Drillman, an investor also facing scrutiny for a deal in Chicago, pleaded guilty last December.”

“The sentencing this week comes as the federally backed lenders Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are tightening standards and working to root out fraud from their books. Fannie Mae acknowledged for the first time in its third-quarter statements that it was investigating multiple lenders for potential mortgage fraud.”

The Wall Street Journal. “Globally, homes are now less affordable than they were in the run-up to the 2008 housing crisis, according to research published by the International Monetary Fund. Ireland, after years of anemic construction, now has the European Union’s most expensive housing, according to a broad measure of rent, maintenance costs and utilities by Eurostat, the European Union statistics agency. Average rent in Dublin doubled over the past decade, while the median home price rose 75%, government statistics show. Some of the sharpest rental increases have occurred in central and Eastern Europe. In Hungary and Lithuania, rent grew more than 60% from 2015 to 2023, according to Eurostat. And in each of those countries, home prices more than doubled over that period. The tiny Baltic nation of Estonia posted the sharpest increases in both rents and home prices of any European country over the 10 years through 2022, according to Eurostat.”

“In the 50 years through 2021, the countries with the sharpest rise in home prices around the world have been New Zealand, the U.K., Canada, Australia and Ireland, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. In Vancouver, British Columbia, the median home price of $1.1 million was 17 times the median household income as of this spring, up from 10 in the early 2000s. British Columbia’s population grew 19% over a 10-year period ending in 2023. In Sydney, Australia, where rising construction costs have prompted developers to put many projects on hold, home prices have climbed from nine times the average income in 2019 to 12 times in early 2024.”

Yahoo Finance on the UK. “From energy efficiency to wellness spaces, here’s what you need to have on your radar if you’re house-hunting over the next 12 months. The reason for the popularity of houses is two-fold. Firstly, much of the new building, especially in cities, is blocks of flats and apartments so there’s a glut of supply compared to houses. ‘The market is saturated with new apartment developments, which can make their resale value relatively weaker,’ says from Vincent Dennington at John D Wood.”

Euro Weekly. “Spain’s housing situation with squatters seems to be getting out of hand. A desperate homeowner in La Coruña has been plunged into financial turmoil after a squatter refused to leave her home unless she’s paid €10,000 – claiming she needs it for a deposit on her next flat. Pilar, a Spanish pensioner, has been fighting for five long years to reclaim her property from the Moroccan woman who stopped paying rent almost immediately after moving in. But just when you thought things couldn’t get worse – the squatter, or okupa as they’re known in Spain, slapped Pilar with the outrageous ultimatum: cough up ten grand, or forget about getting the keys back.”

“As if being locked out of her own home wasn’t bad enough, the 70-something has now had a chunk of her pension frozen over unpaid water bills racked up by the very person squatting in her house. ‘I’ve never been in debt in my life,’ Pilar said tearfully. ‘I always paid my way, but now they’re taking money from my pension over bills that aren’t even mine.'”

From Domain News. “Over the years, our hit TV shows have entertained and educated us, as well as audiences around the world, about the much-revered Australian lifestyle. But how realistic would some of the characters and their living arrangements be in today’s high-priced, high-interest-rate and housing crisis era? Drama teacher Mr Greg Gregson, aka Mr G, of Summer Heights High may have got experimental and crazy in the classroom but in reality, he would have never been able to hand in his letter of resignation and tell the school principal, Margaret, ‘there’s some flowers from my dead dog, why don’t you stick those up your fat arse.'”

“On the current average Sydney drama teacher salary of around $100,000 – $110,000, a unit today in Sydney’s inner west suburb of Summer Hill would cost him around $902,000. That’s a steep price to repay on a single wage. In reality, Mr G couldn’t afford to quit. When ditzy hairdresser Marilyn Chambers reappeared in Home and Away’s Summer Bay after a break of nine years, she must have won lotto in the interim. For on her salary – and the fact she seems to spend so little time actually at work – how else could she have afforded a place to live in a little bougie seaside suburb that so closely resembles Sydney’s Palm Beach?”

“After all, property there has a median price of $2.55 million, according to Domain research, while a hairdresser who worked full-time would earn $60,000 to $80,000, according to figures from seek.com.au; absolutely nothing like enough. ‘Watching the show, I don’t know how she has the money to pay for groceries, let alone buy a place there, or pay rent,’ says Australian TV and film pop culture specialist Andrew Mercado. Then there’s original Blue Heelers star senior constable Maggie Doyle who, on a humble police officer’s salary of $95,000 could still seem to afford a home in Melbourne’s south-west Williamstown, with a median price of $1,545,000. That does seem to cast a new light on her character.”

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  2. The victims and the perps in this article are all from Venezuela. If none of them were here, in our country illegally, none of this would have happened.

    “The crime happened at the Edge of Lowry apartments in Aurora just before 8:45 p.m. Monday. During a press conference Tuesday morning, Chief of Police Todd Chamberlain said two people – a man and a woman – were accosted by approximately 13 to 15 armed individuals before they were kidnapped and taken to a different unit within the same building.

    There, Chamberlain said, the victims were “actually bound. They were pistol-whipped. They were beat. They were victimized. They were terrorized.”

    The victims were not only kidnapped but their home was burglarized and taken over by some of the suspects in the group, Chamberlain added.

    At around 1:50 a.m. Tuesday, the victims were able to talk the group into letting them go, Chamberlain said, adding police were notified about 30 minutes later once the victims were safe at a friend’s home in another part of the city.

    Responding officers locked down the entire apartment complex and eventually found about 15 people who matched the description of the suspects after interviewing the victims. All 15 were subsequently detained for questioning.

    In an update Tuesday evening, Aurora PD said it learned of another apartment that was possibly associated with the crime. Officers detained five additional people around 5 p.m., bringing the total to 19.”

    https://www.denver7.com/news/crime/federal-authorities-investigating-home-invasion-kidnapping-suspects-at-edge-of-lowry-apartments-in-aurora

    “They’re not sending their best”

  3. Real Estate Platform To Show Neighborhoods’ Political Leanings To Prospective Homebuyers.

    https://www.ibtimes.com/real-estate-political-leanings-neighborhoods-3755837

    A new real estate platform will allow users to look at the political leanings of the different areas to which they might consider moving.

    The tool is being launched by tech startup Oyseey and will initially be available in South Florida and New York City, according to Axios.

    Users will be able to see consumer and political data for each block, drawn from election results, campaign contributions and licensable commercial data, the outlet explained.

    It will also show average housing trends.

    The launch comes weeks after a survey from Realtor.com showed that about a quarter of Americans are highly influenced by local and national politics in their decision to buy real estate.

    The survey showed that 38% of respondents believe their political views align with those of their neighbors and that 17% have considered moving over such differences.

    The figure rose to 28% for millennials, with one-third of members of the demographic saying their decisions of where to live are highly influenced by politics.

    Baby boomers were on the other side of the spectrum, with 16% of respondents giving that answer.

    “More millennials are likely to be in a phase of life where they are thinking about the type of community in which they want to buy a home and grow their roots” said Hannah Jones, a senior economic research analyst at Realtor.com.

    “It makes sense that millennials, more than any other age group, think it is very important to live in a place in which most people share their political views.”

    Liberals surveyed were more likely than conservatives to give importance to political views when making the decision. 30% of the former gave that answer, compared to 27% for the latter. The figure was only 18% of respondents who identified themselves as moderates.

    2. “It makes sense that millennials, more than any other age group, think it is very important to live in a place in which most people share their political views.”

      And if they are leftists these will be communities where they will be more likely to be burgled, robbed and be surrounded by homeless. But the walk scores should be great and there will be Ethiopian restaurants too!

    3. Knowing a little about your neighbor before you buy is extremely important. Who wants to live next door to some a**hole with barking dogs or a Harris-Walz sign in their front yard.

      1. Some solid advice I got from an old dude a few years ago was before you buy into a neighborhood, check out the liquor store and schools. Are the people losers?

  5. [From Down Under …]

    Anxious NOAA scientists feel Trump’s “target on their back”, drop climate change and call it “air-quality”.

    https://www.joannenova.com.au/

    By Jo Nova

    And so it begins, scientists start peeling off the climate change labels from the ideology
    The Trump clean-out has not even started and the bow wave is washing off some of the faded advertising.

    Just as ESG and DEI are quietly disappearing into the bushes, soon, “climate change” will vanish too.

    One day most scientists will say “we always knew it was overdone”. But right now, brave scientists are sticking to their beliefs … playing the victim card and adopting new advertising to keep their funding.

    Anxious scientists brace for Trump’s climate denialism: ‘We have a target on our backs’ – Oliver Milman, The Guardian.

    The prospect of an even more ideologically driven Trump administration slashing budgets and mass-firing federal staff has given America’s scientific community a sort of collective anxiety attack. “We all feel like we have a target on our backs,” said one National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration scientist, who added that agency staff are already seeking to “pivot” by replacing mentions of the climate crisis with more acceptable terms such as “air quality”.

    “My god, it’s so depressing,” said another federal scientist about the incoming administration. A doctoral candidate, when asked about entering the workforce under Trump, simply puffed her cheeks and groaned. “If someone offered me a departmental position now, I’d jump,” said one Nasa researcher.

    It’s not like modern science is a lap-dog serving whoever feeds them the biggest biscuits…

    Science is in such a crisis, even the Guardian staff realize something is wrong:
    But scientists in the US face a broader crisis beyond the next president, amid a swirl of misinformation and declining trust in the profession among the American public. Overall trust in scientists has fallen by 10% since the pandemic, Pew polling has shown,…

    And the AGU President, who helped turn science into a religion, accidentally explains some of it:

    “When we get that kind of polling data, it is concerning,” acknowledged Lisa Graumlich, a paleoclimatologist and the current AGU president.

    “The conspiracy theories are out there, the misinformation is there,” said Graumlich. “Social media engines and the algorithms can take a person that isn’t necessarily prone to a conspiracy mindset and have them end up in this rabbit hole of misinformation.”

    Where was Graumlich when NASA and NOAA were spreading misinformation that science is done by groupthink and consensus? Or when they pretended evidence came from computer simulations of Earth, and not the real thing?

    And yet, already, in The Guardian desert of journalism — one tiny sensible shoot appears:

    Some researchers think scientists should adapt to this hyper-partisan environment by sticking to unadorned facts, rather than anything that could be seen as campaigning. “We have been come to be seen as just another partisan lobbying group,” said Ken Caldeira, a climate scientist.

    That’s a good start.

    2. “Administration scientist, who added that agency staff are already seeking to “pivot” by replacing mentions of the climate crisis with more acceptable terms such as “air quality”.”

      Nothing says science like playing word games to make something sound more “acceptable”.

      1. Nothing says science like playing word games to make something sound more “acceptable”.
        And remember it went from Global warming to Climate change to make it more “acceptable.”
        FWIW the climate has been changing for 4+ Billion years and will continue to change no matter what humans do.

  7. Under an off-market listing (also known more pejoratively as a pocket listing), an agent markets the property before putting it on the MLS — using back channels to expedite the deal between private parties.

    The NAR is engaged in racketeering with impunity.

    1. alwayshasbeen.jpg

      I get why the realtor does it. (both sides, easy deal, no costs, no sharing, etc)

      i don’t get why the seller accepts it. No, i would like to see what the full market has to say, why exactly don’t you want me to see the results of the full market???

      1. I’m a believer in the old saying the first offer is the best offer. In that situation I would deal with whoever brought a buyer. But I’d want the entire market to see it.

    2. Where I live, a pocket listing is about the only way to buy a house. Anything that isn’t 100% junk tear-down is listed as contingent immediately.

      It definitely helps promote FOMO and ‘low inventory’ narratives here. Because, by definition, inventory is super low because nothing every comes to the open market.

    1. Francis likes to dismiss American Catholics as “backwards”, but guess who has historically contributed the most to “Peter’s Pence” in the past?

  16. “…real estate websites have built their business models at the expense of homeowners by showing negative insights on their listings, such as days on market, price drops and home value estimates,’ said Robert Reffkin, CEO of Compass….”

    In other words, Robert Reffkin wants to make true price discovery as difficult as possible.

    In Robert Reffkin’s convoluted world, everyday is a sunny day, and you [the buyer] is going to pay.

    Robert, good luck with that. Remember, the skies are orange, and water runs uphill.

    1. I recently found a house I may be interested in purchasing and the recent sales history showed a 2018 sale. No issue there, but my wife and I agree we won’t buy from speculator scum. Upon further search, I found another site that informed me the house was last purchased in October 2023.

      I’ll pass.

      No transparency means socialism. These real estate guys are scum.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Ireland now has some of the most expensive housing in the European Union. A street in Dublin.
      The Housing Affordability Crisis Is Going Global
      Home prices and rents are rising faster than incomes in big cities in Europe and beyond. ‘The price in Ireland is mental.’
      Ireland now has some of the most expensive housing in the European Union. A street in Dublin.
      By Josh Mitchell
      | Photographs by Ellius Grace for WSJ
      Dec. 16, 2024 9:00 pm ET

      DUBLIN—When Mikey Cullen’s parents were in their early 20s, they earned enough as public-sector workers to buy a house in the city. Today, Cullen is a 27-year-old high-school teacher who lives with his mother.

      Cullen had been sharing a house with nine roommates, but he moved back home when he realized he couldn’t afford his own place even in the cheaper parts of Dublin. Renting a one-bedroom apartment, he said, would consume most of his paycheck, and buying something was out of the question because the median home price is eight times his annual salary.
      …
      https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/housing-affordability-crisis-europe-global-3e0d969a

  18. On my way to shut down some more illegal ADU’s this morning…in nice neighborhoods. Friends and family members are living in anything they can get in the backyard. This doesn’t end well. Another day in paradise.

    2. And when the illegals, Opps, I should say the undocumented, but I won’t, are taking up housing, and driving up the rent because the greedy property owners want to maximize their investment from their lifelong savings, I will not judge the property owners harshly. The problems lie with the policymakers who turn a blind eye to the problems they create. Gather 300 or 400 of your friends and neighbors and arrange a published and televised meeting with your local city counsel person or whatever you refer to them as. No politician wants to be exposed to the public as a do nothing who ignored their constituents’ complaints. For the illegals who are here, just consider your stay in the United States as a vacation, whether it is two days or 92 years, it is now time for you to return home. If you have never submitted the paperwork requesting permission to stay, or taken advantage of the amnesty period offered, And it is going to be cheaper for us, the taxpayer to pay for the one-way ticket to your birth nation than allow you to stay and make a fool of our nation.

      1. 2025 should be a good year for charter airlines.

        Decades ago I flew from LA to Mexico City on the red eye, the “tecolote” (owl), because it was cheaper. There wasn’t an empty seat. Much to my surprise at the time about a third of the passengers were deportees, who looked very glum.

      2. No politician wants to be exposed to the public as a do nothing who ignored their constituents’ complaints.

        Lol the political class doesn’t care at all.

        And complaining about illegals publicly is a great way to get blacklisted, ruin your career, and maybe get your children harassed at school.

        1. get your children harassed at school

          That’s why you shouldn’t send them to the government indoctrination centers. Can’t afford private school? Then homeschool! I know to non Americans home schooling sounds like fiction. My European relatives can’t believe that Americans are allowed to homeschool their kids.

          1. We just started our family, so school will not begin for a few years, but we are seriously considering Catholic parochial schools.

            Frankly, I don’t need my child being told maybe they are in the ‘wrong’ body by some childless cat lady.

  19. From the steaming pile article:

    ‘In the world of AVMs, models that achieve success by fitting their results to list prices are deemed “springy” or “bouncy” — like a ball tethered to a string, they won’t stray too far. Several people I talked to for this story say they’ve seen this in action with Zillow’s model: A seller lists a home and asks for a number significantly different from the Zestimate, and then watches as the Zestimate moves within a respectable distance of that list price anyway’

    1. That always happens. It’s a joke. But folks love their zestimate. Even when you show them their recent comps you’ll still get the “But my Zestimate says….”

  20. SACRAMENTO, Calif. They are just some of the hundreds of new laws taking effect Jan. 1, 2025.

    (SB 764) Child Vloggers
    Parents or guardians who earn money by posting online videos that features their children must set aside a percentage of their earnings in a trust account that benefits the minor. Parents will have to keep detailed logs of how much money they earned from each post and how many minutes their children appeared in the video. Children can sue parents that fail to follow the law.

    (SB 1414) Sex Solicitation
    Makes it a felony to solicit a minor under the age of 16 for sex. If the minor is 16 or 17, the crime can be upgraded to a felony if the teen is a victim of trafficking. The law penalizes anyone paying for sex with a minor even if the sexual act never occurred.

    Several laws have established official state symbols, including the Dungeness crab as the official state crustacean (AB 1797), the banana slug as the official state slug (AB 1859) and the shell of the black abalone as the official state seashell (AB 2504).

    (SB 1174) Voter ID Requirements
    Prohibits local governments in California from requiring voters to present identification in order to vote. The law is in response to an ordinance passed in Huntington Beach that allowed the city to verify voter eligibility through IDs.

    https://abc30.com/post/new-2025-california-laws-artificial-intelligence-protection-octopuses-cannabis-cafes-more/15652909/

  21. London Breed isn’t sorry

    I didn’t know what would happen as a result of declaring a state of emergency (in 2020) when the city didn’t even have one case of anyone with Covid. But I did know what was happening in other places, I did have a number of experts and people that I counted on to provide me with information. It was important to make some really hard decisions.

    When you are a leader, you have to be decisive. You can’t wait around for what someone else tells you to do. You have to get the right information, and you have to make what you hope are the right decisions. More importantly, they may not be popular when you make them. So even when I did what I did, people were angry. The fact that I declared a state of emergency, and then it became a shelter-in-place. Who does that to a major city? (Laughs).

    https://www.politico.com/newsletters/california-playbook/2024/12/17/london-breed-isnt-sorry-00194654

  22. Pregnant Chinese women traveled to US to have babies in ‘birth tourism’ scheme, feds say

    Two California residents ran a “birth tourism” business that helped pregnant Chinese women travel to the U.S. to have babies — to secure American citizenship for their children, federal prosecutors said.

    Through their company, USA Happy Baby Inc., the man and woman typically charged their “affluent” Chinese clients $20,000 to $40,000 for their services, and up to $100,000 for those considered “VIP” customers, according to prosecutors.

    They coached the women on how to trick U.S. customs, including how to hide their pregnancy, and had them stay in what officials called a “maternity hotel” in Rancho Cucamonga, located in San Bernardino County, until they gave birth, prosecutors said. Rancho Cucamonga is about a 40-mile drive east from Los Angeles.

    The pair “had over 100 pregnant Chinese women as clients” from January 2012 to March 2015, prosecutors wrote in court documents.

    Within one or two months of having their babies, the women returned to China, prosecutors said.

    Now, the man involved in the scheme, a 59-year-old Rancho Cucamonga resident, was sentenced to three years and five months in prison, the U.S. Attorney’s Office for the Central District of California said in a Dec. 16 news release.

    “For tens of thousands of dollars each, (he) helped his numerous customers deceive U.S. authorities and buy U.S. citizenship for their children,” prosecutors wrote in a sentencing document.

    For when their clients arrived in the U.S., the man and woman told them to wear loose-fitting clothes and advised them on how to answer customs officials’ questions to deceive them about their pregnancies, according to prosecutors.

    After the women were allowed in the U.S., they lived in apartments that were rented by the man and the woman, prosecutors said.

    The pair helped their clients apply for U.S. legal documents for their children born in America, according to prosecutors.

    The man and woman “received money from overseas and used that money to promote their scheme,” prosecutors said.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/travel/travel-preparation/pregnant-chinese-women-traveled-to-us-to-have-babies-in-birth-tourism-scheme-feds-say/ar-AA1w2cbv

  23. After investigating Jan. 6, House GOP sides with Trump and goes after Liz Cheney

    Wrapping up their own investigation on the Jan. 6 2021 Capitol attack, House Republicans have concluded it’s former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney who should be prosecuted for probing what happened when then-President Donald Trump sent his mob of supporters as Congress was certifying the 2020 election.

    The findings issued Tuesday show the Republican Party working to reinforce Trump’s desire to punish his perceived enemies including Cheney and members of the Jan. 6 committee that the president-elect has said should be in jail.

    House Administration Committee Chairman Barry Loudermilk, R-Ga., wrote, “Until we hold accountable those responsible, and reform our institutions, we will not fully regain trust.”

    Among those Trump wants prosecuted are Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, Cheney and others members of the Jan. 6 committee, as well as Smith, the DOJ special counsel who indicted Trump.

    Trump in an interview earlier this month revived his campaign promises to go after those who blamed him for Jan. 6. “Honestly, they should go to jail,” referring to members of Congress who investigated the Capitol attack.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/world/after-investigating-jan-6-house-gop-sides-with-trump-and-goes-after-liz-cheney-1.7149442

  24. Ottawa’s plan to secure border includes more dogs, drones and action to combat fentanyl trade

    To inhibit the synthetic drug trade, Health Canada plans to accelerate the regulatory process for banning precursors so it takes six months rather than three years to outlaw their import to Canada and use here. Many precursor chemicals used to create drugs are imported legally from China.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-ottawas-plan-to-secure-border-includes-more-dogs-drones-and-action-to/

  25. Once a political star, Canada’s Justin Trudeau is fighting for his job amid Trump tariff threats

    When he came to power in 2015, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau was hailed as a progressive icon, a charismatic leftist with movie star good looks who promised to reform elections, tackle climate change and legalize marijuana. He quickly became one of the world’s best-known political figures, known for agenda-setting liberal policies — and for taking selfies with enraptured fans.

    Nine years later, Trudeau is deeply unpopular at home and fighting for his job amid growing calls that he step down.

    Voters blame Trudeau for Canada’s sluggish economy, housing crisis and near-record levels of immigration. For months now, polls have shown that it is highly unlikely that he could lead his Liberal Party to victory in the next election, which is due by Oct. 20 of next year.

    The election of Donald Trump last month has made things worse for Trudeau.

    Conservatives and even members of his own Liberal Party insist he isn’t doing enough to counter Trump, who has threatened to levy heavy tariffs on imports from Canada, and who has trolled Trudeau in recent weeks by repeatedly describing him as “governor” of a 51st American state.

    “He was seen as this Canadian rock star,” said Duane Bratt, a political scientist at Mount Royal University in Calgary. “Everything that seemed bright and refreshing about Trudeau in 2015 now looks old and tired.”

    Jonathan Malloy, a professor of political science at Carleton University, said it seems Trudeau’s days are numbered. “There’s a lot of pessimism and people are upset at government,” he said.

    And Trump calling Canada the 51st state isn’t helping.

    “It’s fair to say that Mr. Trump has a knack for finding people’s weak spots,” Malloy said. “And he struck directly at the main one in Canada, which is that the United States just views it as essentially the 51st state.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/once-a-political-star-canada-s-justin-trudeau-is-fighting-for-his-job-amid-trump-tariff-threats/ar-AA1w50CK
    Bratt said.

    1. Voters blame Trudeau for Canada’s sluggish economy

      Sluggish? I think “moribund” would be a better description. If it was merely sluggish Fidelito would have no worries, but it’s a catastrophe.

    2. “He was seen as this Canadian rock star,”

      Beware of anyone described as a “rock star”. Carly Fiorina was called a rock star CEO when she was hired at Hewlett Packard. It didn’t take her long to drive HP into the ditch.

      I also recall when ordinary job descriptions often included the words “rock star”. I think that fad passed on some time ago.

  26. Trudeau told Freeland that Carney would replace her as finance minister over Zoom

    Prime Minister Justin Trudeau told Chrystia Freeland in a Zoom call on Friday that she was going to be replaced as Finance Minister by former central banker Mark Carney, three Liberal sources say.

    Mr. Carney did not take up the offer. After Ms. Freeland resigned, the Prime Minister named Public Safety Minister Dominic LeBlanc, a close friend, as Finance Minister.

    On Tuesday, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet said Mr. Trudeau has no legitimacy left to govern and must call an election in January.

    The Bloc Leader said with Mr. Trump threatening tariffs that could harm the Canadian economy, the unstable situation faced by the governing Liberals cannot be allowed to stand.

    “If he wants to stay where he is now, he needs a mandate, and he does not have one as we speak,” Mr. Blanchet told reporters, speaking in English.

    Ms. Freeland’s departure reignited calls from the Liberal backbenches for Mr. Trudeau to step down as Leader, but Mr. Blanchet said that would not solve the problem – the result would be the same government negotiating with Mr. Trump.

    “That is not enough,” he said, in French.

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said what was on display in Ottawa Monday was a “clown show,” but added no one should be laughing because it has consequences.

    Mr. Trump is a deal-maker who will exploit any sign of weakness and that is what is on display, Mr. Poilievre told reporters in Mississauga.

    “Justin Trudeau’s weakness is harming the reputation of all Canadians,” he said. “It’s causing other world leaders to insult him, and indirectly, insult all Canadians.”

    In the House of Commons, NDP Leader Jagmeet Singhn once again called on Mr. Trudeau to resign.

    “People are right to be angry,” he said. “They have a Prime Minister who is more interested in protecting his own job than defending Canadians against Trump. He has to quit.”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-bloc-quebecois-dissolve-parliament-call/

  27. How Trump’s tariff threat pushed Canada’s Trudeau to brink of resignation

    For weeks, Justin Trudeau has tried to reassure Canadians that his government has everything under control.

    “Everything is spiralling out of control,” Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre told reporters on Monday in the Canadian capital, Ottawa.

    “We cannot accept this kind of chaos, division [and] weakness while we’re staring down the barrel of a 25-percent tariff by our biggest trading partner and closest ally,” said Poilievre, adding that Trump is “a man who can spot weakness from a mile away”.

    The Liberals also lost the backing of the left-leaning New Democratic Party (NDP) in September, when NDP leader Jagmeet Singh announced his party was withdrawing from a 2022 agreement to prop up Trudeau’s minority government.

    While the NDP has continued to vote alongside the Liberals so far, the government is more vulnerable if a no-confidence vote is triggered in the House of Commons. The result of that vote could force Trudeau to call an early election.

    “They’re fighting themselves instead of fighting for Canadians,” Singh said of the Liberals on Monday. “For that reason, today, I’m calling on Justin Trudeau to resign. He has to go.”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/how-trump-s-tariff-threat-pushed-canada-s-trudeau-to-brink-of-resignation/ar-AA1w1BnF

  28. Fall sitting bookended by Liberal byelection losses ends with Trudeau government in tumult

    The House of Commons adjourned on Tuesday, bringing an end to an unstable fall sitting that has been bookended by Liberal byelection losses. The conclusion of the fall sitting comes as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s minority government is in turmoil.

    From facing down a series of Conservative-led confidence votes and failing to pass nearly any legislation amid a persisting privilege debate filibuster, the Liberals were already heading into the holidays embattled.

    Compounding this uncertainty, Bloc Leader Yves-Francois Blanchet came out Tuesday calling on Trudeau to visit Rideau Hall and launch the country into a federal election campaign by the end of January.

    “I believe that if he wants to stay where he is now, he needs a mandate and he does not have one as we speak. The only way for him to get that, is to call for an election as soon as possible,” Blanchet said.

    “Because it would be absolutely irresponsible for him to maintain Canada in such an unstable situation for that many months still. If he wants to keep doing the job he does, he’s got to go into an election.”

    Singling out Jagmeet Singh, Poilievre said the NDP leader must “join with me in signaling non-confidence to bring down this government as soon as legally possible.”

    Poilievre also talked about Freeland’s resignation, calling Monday’s events a “circus.”

    “Yesterday, we were reminded that if you hire clowns, you get a circus, Poilievre said. “But no one should be laughing because there are real consequences for yesterday’s chaotic Liberal clown show.”

    On Monday, stopping short of committing to stop propping his government up the next time a confidence question arises – now not expected until the 2025 sitting – Singh called on Trudeau to go.

    “The prime minister is more focused on himself and on infighting. The prime minister cannot remain in that position. Will he resign?” Singh asked during a heated question period on Monday.

    Stopping briefly to speak to reporters outside of West Block on Tuesday, Singh doubled down.

    “I said what I said. Trudeau has to go,” he said, walking away before answering why he’s not pulled his support yet.

    New Brunswick MP Wayne Long says there are “certainly more MPs” who want to see a resignation compared to the previous caucus revolt in the fall, saying there are “40 to 50 right now.”

    “I would say one third of us want the prime minister to step down immediately. Another third are resided that it is what it is and we’ll just lose and not open our mouths or say anything. And there’s another third that are very supportive of the prime minister,” Long said.

    Long also called Freeland’s resignation as a “vote of non-confidence in the prime minister” and said it should lead to a different response from Trudeau.

    “The prime minister is living in a false reality. He’s delusional if he thinks we can continue like this,” Long said, who also believes a Liberal leadership race is possible before the next federal election. “It’s unfair to us as MPs. It’s unfair to the ministers, and most importantly it’s unfair to the country. We need to move on with a new direction.”

    Quebec MP Anthony Housefather, meanwhile, says he wants to see the party head in a new direction.

    “Canadians want a change. Just like governments across the world get stale after a certain period of time. Leaders have a specific shelf life in a social media age,” Housesafther said. “I personally would like to see a Liberal party with a more centrist vision offered by a different leader.”

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/politics/fall-sitting-bookended-by-liberal-byelection-losses-ends-with-trudeau-government-in-tumult-1.7148107

  29. Justin Trudeau is the political issue, despite all the others

    It seems like there is more of a feeling now among Liberals that Mr. Trudeau might actually leave, mostly because of the Prime Minister’s tone in private and silence in public. And once again, Mr. Trudeau is promising to reflect.

    Usually, those kind of things are Ottawa bubble chatter, but Mr. Trudeau has been the main issue in the country, too, and for a while.

    Look at Monday’s by-election in Cloverdale-Langley City, where the Liberal vote collapsed so hard that Conservative candidate Tamara Jansen was elected with 66 per cent of the vote.

    For all their gains, the Conservatives didn’t get to that score because of their policies or Pierre Poilievre’s word play, even if they are more popular than the Liberals. It wasn’t because of Ms. Jansen, the former MP who lost the riding in the 2021 election.

    The only explanation for that kind of margin is that a large proportion of the people motivated enough to go to the polls wanted to register a verdict on Mr. Trudeau.

    One by-election is not a bellwether, but there have been three this year where the Liberals collapsed, including two Grit bastions.

    There were lots of issues in all of those races: prices, housing, immigration and so on. The Liberals had hoped they could make Mr. Poilievre the issue, but they can’t distract people from an issue that feels bigger: Mr. Trudeau.

    Mr. Trudeau’s team had hoped that Mr. Trump’s election might somehow revive the Prime Minister’s political fortunes. After all, Mr. Trudeau led a Team Canada response that successfully wrestled down Mr. Trump’s demands for a renegotiation of the North American free-trade agreement to a new deal with relatively modest concessions. The chaos that comes with Mr. Trump’s re-election might just shake Canadian politics enough to be a game-changer.

    Now it has, but in a way has made Mr. Trudeau the issue again.

    Ms. Freeland’s resignation letter accused him of putting “costly political gimmicks” ahead of preparing for the danger of Trump 2.0. The Prime Minister’s first-term NAFTA quarterback was accusing him of failing to do the right thing for the country because he was too busy working to save his own job.

    That is a powerful blow to Mr. Trudeau’s last hopes for political revival. It is one thing when voters doubt a leader’s competence, but far more damaging when they doubt a leader’s motives. Ms. Freeland has invited Canadians – notably Liberals – to do both.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opinion/article-justin-trudeau-is-the-political-issue-despite-all-the-others/

    1. Singling out Jagmeet Singh, Poilievre said the NDP leader must “join with me in signaling non-confidence to bring down this government as soon as legally possible.”

      Will Trudeau still be the PM by Christmas? Will he resign and give another member of the Liberal Party a shot at the PM job until next October, or will he refuse to budge and be forced out, which means Poilievre would be the PM come February?

      It’s an interesting contrast to the US system, where FJB can’t be forced out before Jan 20 (other than Amendment 25 being invoked).

  30. What does Big Tech stand to gain from getting closer to Trump?

    In a string of visits, dinners, calls, monetary pledges and social media overtures, big tech chiefs – including Apple’s Tim Cook, OpenAI’s Sam Altman, Meta’s Mark Zuckerberg, SoftBank’s Masayoshi Son and Amazon’s Jeff Bezos – have joined a parade of business and world leaders in trying to improve their standing with President-elect Donald Trump before he takes office in January.

    “The first term, everybody was fighting me,” Trump said in remarks at Mar-a-Lago. “In this term, everybody wants to be my friend.”

    Tech companies and leaders have now poured millions into his inauguration fund, a sharp increase – in most cases – from past pledges to incoming presidents. But what does the tech industry expect to gain out of their renewed relationships with Trump?

    “We have two multi-billionaires, Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy, who are tasked with cutting what they’re saying will be multiple trillions of dollars from the federal budget, reducing the civil service, the work force,” said Rob Lalka, a business professor at Tulane University.

    Musk, he said, has a level of access to the White House that very few others have had – access that allows him to potentially influence multiple policy areas, including foreign policy, automotive and energy policy through EVs, and tech policy on artificial intelligence.

    “Elon Musk walked into Twitter’s headquarters with a sink and then posted, ‘let that sink in,‘” he said. “Elon Musk then posted a status update on X, a picture of himself with a sink in the Oval Office and said, ’Let that sink in.′”

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-what-does-big-tech-stand-to-gain-from-getting-closer-to-trump/

  31. [A comment from the article posted below …

    “HaHa!

    “The timing on this is comical.

    “Guess they don’t want to be bombed back to the stone age on January 21st.”]

    Extending Olive Branch? Houthis Reportedly Plan Security Maritime Seminar With Shipping Insiders.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/extending-olive-branch-houthis-reportedly-plan-security-maritime-seminar-shipping

    In a surprising move, Iran-backed Houthi rebels—responsible for dozens of attacks on Western-linked commercial vessels and warships in the critical maritime chokepoint of the Southern Red Sea—are reportedly planning to host a seminar and webinar on “security of navigation in the Red Sea.”

    The shipping news website gCaptain, citing a report from the maritime publication TradeWinds, indicated that the Houthis are extending an olive branch to industry insiders by seeking input on the agenda for an upcoming conference on security and shipping, aimed at providing insights to “enrich the discussion.”

    Here’s more from gCaptain:

    The email, sent to TradeWinds by an events manager for the Humanitarian Operations Coordination Center (HOCC), is raising eyebrows across the shipping community. HOCC is the same entity that has issued threats to shipping companies and shipowners, including warnings earlier this year that vessels failing to cooperate with Houthi authorities would be “banned” from crossing the Red Sea.

    Those warnings also included direct threats that ships calling at Israeli ports would be “directly targeted by the Yemeni Armed Forces” in locations “deemed appropriate.”

    In stark contrast, the latest email strikes a markedly softer tone. It invites industry participation to discuss the “current state of navigation security in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden” and Yemen’s role in ensuring safe passage.

    “Within the framework of enhancing cooperation and discussing issues of common interest,” the email reads, “your active participation will undoubtedly contribute to ensuring the success of this event and achieving the desired effect.”

    Experts warn that responding could inadvertently legitimize the group’s actions.

    The irony in all of this is that the Houthis have been responsible for disrupting global shipping in the Southern Red Sea and Gulf of Aden for over a year, targeting Western-linked container ships, tankers, and military vessels.

    Washington Institute’s Noam Raydan penned a note this week outlining, “Houthis effectively turned the Bab al-Mandab chokepoint into an anti-access/area-denial zone” this year, launching attacks on at least 100 commercial ships and warships.

    [A chart appears here …]

    Houthis are extending an olive branch to the shipping industry at a time when tanker flows through the critical maritime chokepoint are surging from the lows (according to Goldman analysts)…

    [Another chart appears here …]

    … and also come when the Trump administration is about a month away from entering the White House with expected hardline counter-Houthi policies.

  32. “Dunkelflaute” Roils The European Energy Market

    Fears over the reliability of the electricity supply in Europe were validated last week, with a second stretch of cool, overcast, and near-windless weather following a less severe episode in November. As potentially intermittent renewables close in on half of Europe’s total power generation, the weather was not welcome news.

    The German word for this is “dunkelflaute.” To be sure, the lights didn’t go out anywhere, but wholesale electricity prices in Germany spiked above €900 per megawatt hour on December 11, and a few heavy industrial consumers temporarily shut down operations that had become uneconomic at those price levels. Clean energy advocates pointed out that many consumers were insulated from the higher rates by long-term contracts. Yet, the episode is a chilling reminder for Germany of its dependence on imported electricity. After shutting down its entire fleet of nuclear power plants, and the unwillingness of Germany’s neighbors to see the resulting price volatility transmitted to their own consumers, this should have been a very foreseeable problem.

    Even with the natural gas plants as a dispatchable swing producer, the decline in coal and nuclear capacity has led to a situation where Germany lacks enough installed capacity to cover the occasional severe deficit in renewables, particularly wind. Gas plants now spend most of the time offline, so there is little incentive to invest in capacity, but even when all of the gas capacity is brought online, it cannot cover the sort of deficit seen last week, when German wind generation fell below three gigawatts, from a normal nineteen gigawatts at this time of year. The problem is not the availability or price volatility of natural gas, for which there is plenty in storage, but of adequate dispatchable gas-fired generating capacity.

    It is not clear that Germany’s neighbors are all going to continue to subject their own ratepayers to this situation. In Norway, which considers abundant and cheap hydropower to be a competitive advantage for their economy, Energy Minister Terje Aasland said last week that the rise in energy prices had created a “s*** situation.” There is an emerging left-right political consensus around cutting off Norway’s electric grid interconnection with Denmark when the current agreement expires in 2026 and renegotiating their power agreements with Britain and Germany. Electricity prices in southern Norway last week were the highest ever, exceeding even the records set in 2022 during the opening phase of the Ukraine War.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/dunkelflaute-roils-the-european-energy-market/ar-AA1w6L5b

  33. Looks like the rate daters took another pounding today. Looks like they won’t be getting out of Schlongville any time soon.

  34. I just learned that the UK has a “Minister for Homelessness and Democracy”. That doesn’t sound Orwellian, does it?

  35. Lowest loonie in years. Clown show in Ottawa.

    Pierre Poilievre

    5 hours ago

    Canada after 9 years of NDP-Liberals:

    Lowest loonie in years. Looming tariff war with the United States. $62 billion deficit. Clown show in Ottawa.

    Call a carbon tax election now, so common sense Conservatives can fix what Trudeau broke.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ1ZzvRb0A4

    1 minute.

  36. OK, I love this:

    President-elect Donald Trump abruptly rejected a bipartisan plan Wednesday to prevent a Christmastime government shutdown, instead telling House Speaker Mike Johnson and Republicans to essentially renegotiate — days before a deadline when federal funding runs out.

    He doesn’t even have his veto pen yet, and he’s calling the shots.

  37. ‘Zillow itself lost hundreds of millions of dollars during the pandemic when it relied on its algorithm to buy homes at what turned out to be inflated prices, part of an ill-fated attempt to flip homes at scale’

    Opendoor and others lost similar amounts. During the biggest 2-3 year skyrocket of shack prices in history.

      1. Believe that you may have swapped “GlassDoor” with “OpenDoor”. As a true Geezer, this happens to me frequently. Not implying that you are a geezer, from CO or anywhere else for that matter.
        Regards,
        –Geezer

  38. ‘That lack of maintenance isn’t because that people don’t necessarily want to do the repairs. It’s always that there’s not the money in the bank to do repairs’

    I think it’s been established that these loanowners are also broke a$$ losers Tara. They’ve probably been cash out refinancing all along the way as well.

    1. They’ve probably been cash out refinancing all along the way as well.

      Those luxury cars, bewb jobs and cruises don’t pay for themselves.

  39. Did you dump stonks on the news that the Fed prefers walking slowly through a dark room full of furniture?

    2. The Motley Fool
      Top 10 Stocks to Buy Now ›
      The Stock Market Is on Track to Do Something It Hasn’t Done Since the Dot-Com Bubble in 1998. Here’s What Might Happen Next.
      By Anthony Di Pizio – Dec 18, 2024 at 4:26AM

      Key Points

      – The S&P 500 is on track to deliver back-to-back annual gains of at least 25% for only the second time in its history, going back to 1957.

      – The other time was during the dot-com bubble, which created an irrationally exuberant stock market environment.

      – The S&P 500 is expensive right now relative to its history, but the index could still deliver further upside in 2025.
      …
      https://www.fool.com/investing/2024/12/18/stock-market-dotcom-tech-bubble-1998-happen-next/

    3. Yahoo Finance
      Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq clobbered as Fed, Powell signal fewer rate cuts in 2025
      Brett LoGiurato and Josh Schafer
      Updated Wed, December 18, 2024 at 2:40 PM PST 2 min read
      In This Article:
      ^DJI
      -2.58%
      ^GSPC
      -2.95%
      YM=F
      +0.28%

      Stocks were clobbered Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, despite slashing interest rates by 25 basis points, signaled it would cut fewer times next year than previously projected.

      All three major reversed gains following the decision to end with steep losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) was down about 2.6%, or over 1,000 points, clinching its 10th straight down session, the longest losing streak since 1974. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell roughly 3%, and tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slid more than 3.5%.

      Ten Fed officials estimated two interest rate cuts next year, fewer than four seen in September, as officials marked up their projections for core inflation and economic growth next year, while lowering their forecast for the unemployment rate in 2025.

      “The slower pace of cuts for next year really reflects both the higher inflation readings we had this year and the expectation inflation will be higher,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said. He added later that as long as the economy and labor market remain “solid,” “we can be cautious as we consider further cuts.”
      …
      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-clobbered-as-fed-powell-signal-fewer-rate-cuts-in-2025-210323475.html

      1. “Fed signals caution on future rate cuts”

        Translation: The Fed sees inflationary forces in the pipeline and is trying to get out ahead of them, rather than witness a 1970s redo without trying to prevent it.

      2. Bear Steepener Definition and Overview With Example
        By James Chen
        Updated April 26, 2022
        Reviewed by Cierra Murry
        Fact checked by Marcus Reeves

        What Is a Bear Steepener?

        A bear steepener is the widening of the yield curve caused by long-term interest rates increasing at a faster rate than short-term rates. A bear steepener is usually suggestive of rising inflationary expectations–or a widespread rise in prices throughout the economy. The rise in inflation can lead to the Federal Reserve increasing interest rates to slow prices from rising too rapidly. Investors, in turn, sell their existing fixed-rate long-term bonds since those yields will be less attractive in a rising-rate environment. The result is a bear steepener because investors sell long-term bonds in favor of shorter maturities as they wait for the rate hikes to finish before buying long-term bonds again.
        …
        https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bearsteepener.asp

    5. Does the Fed’s rate cut announcement at least offer hope to the rate daters that mortgage rates will soon return to 2021 levels?

      1. Markets
        Mortgage Rates Jump Abruptly Higher After The Fed’s Rate Cut
        By: Matthew Graham
        Wed, Dec 18 2024, 4:19 PM

        If anyone needed any further convincing that a Fed rate cut is no guarantee of lower mortgage rates, today is a great piece of evidence. Perhaps “great” is the wrong word. There was nothing great about the mortgage rate movement following today’s Fed rate cut.

        The average lender is at least 0.20% higher than earlier this morning. Lenders are still in the process of adjusting their rate sheets, so the total damage could vary slightly by the time we’re able to run the full numbers. Either way, the top tier conventional 30yr fixed rate will easily be back over 7% for the average lender.

        What gives?
        …
        https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-12182024

      1. CNBC
        US Markets
        Wharton’s Jeremy Siegel says stock sell-off is ‘healthy’ as cautious Fed gives investors a ‘reality check’
        Published Thu, Dec 19 2024 1:04 AM EST
        Updated 2 Hours Ago
        Anniek Bao

        KEY POINTS

        – Wharton business school professor Jeremy Siegel said the stock sell-off on Wall Street was “healthy,” as the Federal Reserve’s cautionary projection gives investors a “reality check.”

        – “The market was in almost a runaway situation… and this brought them to reality that we are just not going to get as low interest rates” as investors were betting on when the Fed started its easing cycle, Siegel said on CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.”
        …

        1. “The market was in almost a runaway situation…”

          It gets interesting once a bubble enters the runaway train stage.

    9. Federal Reserve cuts its key rate by a quarter-point but envisions fewer reductions next year

      The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by a quarter-point — its third cut this year — but also signaled that it expects to reduce rates more slowly next year than it previously envisioned, mostly because of still-elevated inflation
      By CHRISTOPHER RUGABER AP economics writer
      December 17, 2024, 8:32 PM
      …
      “It’s kind of common-sense thinking that when the path is uncertain, you go a little bit slower,” Powell said. “It’s not unlike driving on a foggy night or walking into a dark room with furniture. Just slow down.”
      …
      https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/federal-reserve-set-cut-key-rate-consumers-feel-116893489

  40. ‘Insurance premiums for condo associations have doubled since 2022 and these systems exist together. If you are not able to keep your building in good physical health, you’re not going to be insurable. The private market saw Surfside collapse. They witnessed the horror with everyone else, insurance companies, and banks, and so if you don’t make sure your building is repaired and that you have money available to make those repairs, it will be exceedingly difficult, regardless of what the legislature does, to be insurable or to get loans to make those needed repairs in your building’

    Let’s be clear here Jen. The lending is sound.

    1. it will be exceedingly difficult, regardless of what the legislature does, to be insurable

      Heck, if your dog bites someone you might not be able to renew your policy.

    2. “The private market saw Surfside collapse.”

      The only reason insurance companies shed any tears was because existing policies had been sold to Surfside.

  41. ‘We need the $8 million back,’ Brewer told Wasow Park. ‘We do not need it cut. We are losing people who would be keeping those off the streets’

    The number of bums is increasing Gale. Has been fer years.

    ‘Adams has focused in particular on breaking up street encampments, an issue he touched on during a town hall event on the Upper West Side on Monday night. ‘We had encampments everywhere,’ he said at the event, referring to when he took office in January 2022. ‘We made an agreement that we were going to take all the encampments down and put people into care. We were beat up. We were beat up. People said, ‘No, people have a right to sleep on the street with no shoes at 13-degree weather and yell and scream and walk the street.’ I said, ‘Like hell they do.’ That’s what it took’

    It wasn’t that long ago that Erik was complaining about the Texas guvnah bussing illegals to his sh$thole.

  42. ‘By 2020 the fraud had gotten larger, with Puretz and his co-conspirators acquiring the Troy Technology Park outside Detroit for $43M before presenting lenders with fake documents putting the sale price at $70M’

    Aron may have been running one of those underpants gnomes things cuz I still can’t see how he was going to make any money on these things.

  43. ‘In Vancouver, British Columbia, the median home price of $1.1 million was 17 times the median household income as of this spring, up from 10 in the early 2000s’

    That’s some sound lending right there.

  44. ‘As if being locked out of her own home wasn’t bad enough, the 70-something has now had a chunk of her pension frozen over unpaid water bills racked up by the very person squatting in her house. ‘I’ve never been in debt in my life,’ Pilar said tearfully. ‘I always paid my way, but now they’re taking money from my pension over bills that aren’t even mine’

    I know it can rough at times Pilar, and not tomorrow, or the next day but someday, you’ll see. You are the winnah!

  45. ‘he would have never been able to hand in his letter of resignation and tell the school principal, Margaret, ‘there’s some flowers from my dead dog, why don’t you stick those up your fat arse’

    https://www.quotes.net/show-quote/77800

    Mr G:
    I’m bloody resigning. I’m so sick of it. Shove it up your arse, Margaret! I’m resigning, everyone. I’m out of here. That’s it. I’m gone. There’s my letter of resignation. And there’s some flowers for my dead dog. Why don’t you stick those up your fat arse?! F*** off, everyone! I’m gone.

  46. Others Shouldn’t Be Paying For Your Problems (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)

    Team Sessa Real Estate

    1 hour ago TORONTO

    This episode looks at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, York Region & Peel Region for the week ending Dec 11, 2024. We also discuss how landlords will often make their financial problems, the problems of their tenant, not understanding their roles and responsibilities in their agreement.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=29jaY_udreg

    15 minutes.

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