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Plenty Of Sellers Competing With Each Other In California

A report from the Times of San Diego on California. “San Diego home prices fell in November for the fourth consecutive month, according to the authoritative Case-Shiller report. Other West Coast cities, including Los Angeles, Portland, San Francisco and Seattle, also experienced home price declines in November. ‘Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018,’ said David M. Blitzer, managing director.”

The Orange County Register. “Four Orange County homes sold for over $30 million a piece last year. Construction boomlets were going strong in some high-end spots, and speculative builders cashed in on luxury flips. But as interest rates inched up, supply swelled and political and global forces came into play, overall sales dropped.”

“‘The market is in transition,’ said Steve High, president of Villa Real Estate. The firm was involved in the two most expensive sales of the year. The longtime Orange County real estate executive and agent sees the new tax law beginning to have an impact on the luxury market. It’s also become harder for prospective Southern California buyers from China to get their money out of that country, he said. And he wonders if the whirl of building and remodeling could lead to a glut of luxury homes for sale in 2019.”

“More high-end sales closed in Orange County than ever in 2018 – 3,945, up from 3,897 in 2017, according to Steve Thomas’ Reports on Housing, a biweekly analysis of the local market. But sales slowed dramatically in the second half of the year, Thomas said, beginning in the spring. By mid-October, he said, supply peaked at 2,163 homes – 19 percent more than in 2017.”

“‘There simply were not enough buyers actively looking to buy,’ he said. ‘On the other hand, there were plenty of sellers competing with each other.'”

The Los Angeles Times. “Crystal Hefner’s hop into the real estate game seems to be going well. The former Playboy bunny and widow of Hugh Hefner has sold her modern home in Hollywood Hills West for $5 million, records show. West for $5 million, records show. The pair paid $4.995 million for the home in 2013 a few months after getting married.”

From 7 San Diego. “A survey of the Bay Area’s real estate shows San Francisco has fallen out of the top-three hottest markets. The Case-Shiller home price index shows San Francisco home prices fell for the second month in a row, which is only the second time that has happened in nearly a decade.”

“‘It’s telling us that things are beginning to slow down,’ said Gregg Lynn with Sotheby’s International Realty. Lynn deals in the highest end neighborhoods of San Francisco. The great majority of his clients do not need a mortgage to buy a multi-million dollar property. ‘I think it’s happening because of the trends that are happening in the United States,’ Lynn said.”

“The trends he is talking about are a volatile stock market, an economic upset and something you could call the Trump card. ‘I think people hold their breath during presidential cycles that are pretty stressful,’ Lynn said. ‘And I think you’d agree the past two elections we’ve had have been pretty stressful.'”

“Further down in the real estate market, Caleb Mitchell is representing a triplex in Bernal Heights that has been on the market since Thanksgiving with only one offer that fell through. Mitchell believes the slowdown could be blamed on a rise in interest rates last fall.”

“Lynn said sellers are having to soften their expectations. And they are, especially with condominiums, which fell 2.4 percent in November — the largest drop since 2011.”

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This Post Has 103 Comments

  1. ‘I think people hold their breath during presidential cycles that are pretty stressful,’ Lynn said. ‘And I think you’d agree the past two elections we’ve had have been pretty stressful.’

    So now the snowflakes are blaming the President for crashing shack markets…

    1. To be fair to the snowflakes, it was Trump (and Congress) that limited the MID, which has a significant effect in CA, especially cities like San Diego. Sure, the clients can buy cash and don’t need the MID. But if they have to sell to a buyer who gets a mortgage, I can see the MID making a difference.

      1. The loss of interest deductions mostly effects those “broke at a higher level”.

        When I first started paying taxes, all interest was deductible, not just mortgage interest. Paying interest was considered a disaster, and the debt donkey a poor, poor creature indeed.

  3. ‘It’s also become harder for prospective Southern California buyers from China to get their money out of that country, he said. And he wonders if the whirl of building and remodeling could lead to a glut of luxury homes for sale in 2019’

    There’s a list of some pricey shack sales at the end of this article, each with multi-millions slashed off the asking price. The luxury bubble pop was years ago.

  4. Pending home sales tumble to lowest in nearly five years in December
    Published: Jan 30, 2019 10:00 a.m. ET
    The Realtors are ‘confident that the housing market will see improvement in 2019’
    By Andrea Riquier
    A sale pending sign in front of a house.

    The numbers: Pending-home sales slid 2.2% in December to a reading of 99, and were 9.8% lower compared to a year ago, marking the 12th straight month of annual declines, the National Association of Realtors said Wednesday.

    That’s the lowest reading since April 2014.
    …

  5. ‘San Diego home prices fell in November for the fourth consecutive month…Other West Coast cities, including Los Angeles, Portland, San Francisco and Seattle, also experienced home price declines in November. ‘Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018’

    Has the media informed you the shack market peaked so long ago? Oh no, you gotta roll with it!

    2. ‘Sales peaked in November 2017 and drifted down through 2018’

      It just goes to show you, as the Fed leadership is fond of stating, that bubbles are only visible through the lens of the rear-view mirror.

  7. -50 degrees in the Midwest might not be the best thing for boosting home sales there. On the other hand, maybe some sellers will slash prices just to GTFO of there.

    2. Having spent the first third of my life in the cold on the great lakes, and the second third in the heat of Texas, and then moving to PNW, I came to the conclusion that there will be people moving here due to the climate/weather, and it’ll only get worse in the years/decades ahead.

      1. You underestimate the “dismal climate” of the PNW, in the words of many, many transplants. It’s not the temperature, it’s the low cloud cover and drizzle for 9 months of the year. This past fall/winter’s lack of rainfall isn’t normal.

        1. I should also add that you probably weren’t in the PNW several years back when there was no summer. It just never came. It was cold and wet the entire year through, with a few sunny days here and there.

          1. I’ve been in the PNW 11 years now, and I do remember that summer. We’ve had a couple lousy ones, and a couple great ones.

            But still, I would take it any day over some of the summers I had in 20+ years in Dallas/Ft. Worth, like the one were we topped 100 degrees 79 straight days.

            I also have plenty of memories of lake effect snow from Lake Michigan. No area on the continental US is as near consistent as say Hawaii.. but for me at least, I’ll take western WA state over north or central TX every time.

            The bad stretches of weather don’t get me that down, and the thing is that Texas and the rust belt have equally as bad or worse stretches of winter or summer, at least for me.

            Also, energy-wise, the PNW is much more tempered at the extremes, and my residential heating/cooling costs are significant better than the other 2 regions I’ve lived in.

            but other people will not necessarily see it, or endure it, the way I do.

        2. Chinbabwe….we live in So Oregon 5 years now, milder climate than up North, shorter Winter weather, drier. I lived in Portland 6 years, yes long months dark cloud cover, drizzly rains there. Lived in Cali for 20 years, majority people I meet from Cali etc., anyway.

  8. Here’s an interesting read …

    Rattlesnake acres: A tale of deceit, misrepresentation of millions of dollars
    https://www.krqe.com/news/investigations/larry-barker/rattlesnake-acres-a-tale-of-deceit-misrepresentation-in-the-new-mexico-desert/1306615981

    This article just goes to show everyone how difficult it is to pull a fast one on the highly educated, highly informed, economically astute members of the American population.

    Thank you No Child Left Behind.

    1. (snip)

      “If you lived in New Mexico during the 70’s you would have known the development potential of this land. However, Horizon marketed its holdings to out of state consumers living in places like New Jersey and Pennsylvania.

      “Consider a quarter acre parcel on a fictitious street Horizon called ‘Lepanto Court.’ If the out of state purchaser of that lot planned to move to Lepanto Court in Rio Del Oro to build their dream home they’d be out of luck. You see, that lot isn’t in paradise, it’s in an arroyo.

      “News 13 asked Valencia County Treasurer Deseri Sichler about the reality today of owning a lot in one of the Valencia County subdivisions Horizon peddled a half-century ago. ‘You own some sagebrush. Maybe a couple of rattlesnakes, cottontails, scorpions. There are (some) pretty good sized tarantulas out there,’ Sichler said.”

      1. One would think that new investors would learn from the rather nasty experiences of previous investors, but, no …

        “The lack of marketability hasn’t stopped some promoters from picking up where Horizon left off”

        😁

        “Consider Land Ho, a New Jersey-based wholesaler that acquired more than 3,000 Horizon parcels and now peddles them on weekly web auctions. Even though Land Ho’s Valencia County holdings are mostly stark desert land, you wouldn’t know it by looking at their ads.

        “For example, consider Land Ho’s Lot 4 in the Canyon Del Rio subdivision. If you look at the photograph used to depict Lot 4 you will see it isn’t in Valencia County. It’s not even New Mexico. Land Ho lifted a shot of the Colorado Rocky Mountains from the Internet and used it to show desolate Valencia County rangeland.”

        😁

        “Land Ho used an image of Shiprock to depict an undeveloped lot 185 miles away in Valencia County. And judging by an image of the Chama Valley in Northern New Mexico, you would think a pristine river runs through Land Ho’s Lot 18. In fact, Lot 18 is a parched quarter acre of scrub and sage.”

        😁

        “Land Ho describes it’s Lot 11 as ‘beautiful views right near Facebook.’ The photo, however, shows Taos Mountain 140 miles away.”

        😁

        “Land Ho uses a tranquil Colorado mountain scene to depict its desolate, weed-choked Lot 40. And the New Jersey land sales company describes Lot 33 as ‘an unbeatable location in Valencia, New Mexico’. The photo of that lot Land Ho is selling shows the Dragoon Mountains in Arizona.”

        😁

        “Land Ho peddles its Lot 42 east of Los Lunas with a photo of the Organ Mountains east of Las Cruces. In its ad copy, the land sales company claims ‘you can walk from Lot 42 to the Manzano Mountain State Park.’ Better get out your hiking boots. You see, the state park is on the other side of the mountain.”

        😁

        I was saving the best for last …

        “Judging by the photo Land Ho uses to promote the sale of Lot 5, the New Jersey firm would like you to believe you could sit on Lot 5 with a view of the Albuquerque Balloon Fiesta. Nice try Land Ho. The ballooning event in the photo isn’t in Albuquerque, it’s in Thailand.”

        Bahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha.

      2. Do you think peddlers of these desert land plots invoked romantic songs like this to sell New Mexico land?

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o-GxI72EJrA

        And I’m free, like the wind
        Like I’m gonna live forever
        It’s a feelin’ time can never take away!
        All I need’s a few more dollars
        And I’m outta here to stay
        Dreams comes true, yes they do
        In Santa Fe

  9. “Crystal Hefner’s hop into the real estate game seems to be going well. The former Playboy bunny and widow of Hugh Hefner has sold her modern home in Hollywood Hills West for $5 million, records show. West for $5 million, records show. The pair paid $4.995 million for the home in 2013 a few months after getting married.”

    Going “well” means breaking even after 6 years? I mean 6 years of bubble gains wiped out in a few months. Sure it may not have been her money but imagine you brought in 2014-2018….

    Well, it was still cheaper than renting

    1. No way they broke even, real-estate commission is going to be 5% (about 250k). It would have been cheaper to rent.

  10. “The trends he is talking about are a volatile stock market, an economic upset and something you could call the Trump card. ‘I think people hold their breath during presidential cycles that are pretty stressful,’ Lynn said. ‘And I think you’d agree the past two elections we’ve had have been pretty stressful.’”

    LOL Lynn back in Spring, it was to the Moon and beyond!!! I think Trump was still President back then … he was still crazy too :=0

    So what’s really change?

    1. Remember when Trump got elected and all the REIC monkeys were screaming that it was to the moon now that a RE guy got in the white house – he had to protect his investments!?!

      BTW, 2 spec homes on the hill above me just cut prices by 10%. Been for sale for probably 2 years. Hope the owners lose their azzes

      1. Author intru$ement: dtRump$, he had to protect his inve$tment$!?!

        “His: Ru$$kie in.fe$terment$”

  12. Other West Coast cities, including Los Angeles, Portland, San Francisco and Seattle, also experienced home price declines in November.

    Home price declines? B…b…but I thought the REIC shills were unanimous in telling us home price growth had slowed, but prices were still headed higher or plateauing.

    Oh dear. Maybe I was a bit hasty signing on Mr. Bankers dotted line. Must’ve been that sudden sense of urgency after my UHS told me three rate hikes were baked in the cake this year so I should buy now or be priced out forever.

    1. “Must’ve been that sudden sense of urgency after my UHS told me three rate hikes were baked in the cake this year so I should buy now or be priced out forever.”

      If you signed my Dotted Line because three rate hikes were baked in the cake then you deserve every bit of the everlasting and ever enduring non-stop suffering and agony that my carefully designed Dotted Line Special will bestow upon you, your children and, hopefully, your grandchildren.

      1. “‘The High Desert housing market has evened out over the last 4 to 6 months, with the area having a good inventory,’ Vaage said. ‘But interest rates are scheduled to go up three times this year so now is the time to buy.’”

        But…but…Amanda assured me that now was the time to buy! As a real estate professional, her research confirmed that this listing was special! I was but putty in her hands….

    2. “…three rate hikes were baked in the cake this year…”

      The Fed seems to have changed course on previously announced rate hikes. In so doing, they have inadvertently signalled that the economy is in much worse shape than expected.

      1. ” they have inadvertently $ignalled that the economy is in much wor$e $hape than expected.”

        oh, $ayeth you! … Boeing sing$: $101Billion$ of bottle$ of beer$ on the wall$! … $100 Billion$ of bottle$ of beer$ on the wall$ …

  14. What a wide net CA casts in the 9.55% bracket. Not a very liberal progressive bracket if a wage earner at 50K pays the same tax on the last dollar as a coastal million dollar a year CEO. No wonder so many bail when they can. yes its tax time again.

    California has 7 different brackets for personal income tax rates:

    1.25% on the first $7,168 of taxable income
    2.25% on taxable income between $7,169 and $16,994
    4.25% on taxable income between $16,995 and $26,821
    6.25% on taxable income between $26,822 and $37,233
    8.25% on taxable income between $37,234 and $47,055
    9.55% on taxable income between $47,056 and $1,000,000
    10.55% on taxable income $1,000,001 or more

    1. Problem is, the poor CA inlanders flee to Austin, Denver, Phoenix, Vegas and Boise… and bring their sprawl and traffic.

    2. Not to mention they will come after you for working just a couple days in the state even though you live and work in another state. Plenty of stories of shitty behavior by the Cali Franchise Tax board.

    3. That is crazy and eye-opening. I would like to see how much tax revenue comes from each of those brackets, and see further breakdown between 47k and 1m. It seems completely arbitrary to have so much granularity at the bottom and nothing at the top.

      This would be more reasonable (assuming 47k is the poverty level):

      0-47k: 0%
      47-100k: 5%
      100-150k: 8%
      150-250k: 10%
      250-400k: 15%
      400k+: 20%

      I would be VERY interested to know the comparative revenue from my scheme vs the current one. My scheme would be fantastic for the poor, would likely help the middle class (<200k) as well, and is consistent with the progressive nature of the state when it comes to the rich.

    4. Stop and think about this for a second. People are fleeing California when its tax and healthcare policies are not even as progressive as what is being proposed for the entire nation.

      1. The Coast of CA is very expensive, but the weather and geography is spectacular north of Ventura. Gotta pay to play. Mostly retirees are fleeing for cheaper places, all they need is a big TV and a Costco to be happy.

        1. Not sure about Progressive health care in CA, biz owners pay >$500 a mo for a Blue Cross policy and $1000 deductible per employee–nothing to brag about. Blue Cross is winning and drs have to hire a team of workers to deal with claims. We can do better, other countries do better for less $.

          1. My husband and I are self-employed. We pay $2,073/mo for health insurance that does not include vision or dental expect for our son.

          2. “We pay $2,073/mo for health insurance that does not include vision or dental…”

            Wow… is there nothing cheaper with a higher deductible?

          3. High deductibles only help when you don’t need to use your health insurance. Welcome to the Affordable Care Act!

        2. I know of which I speak. I’ve lived in Southern CA all but 7 years of my life. It’s not just retirees who are fleeing.

          1. The rich are fleeing the taxes and the poor are fleeing the high cost of living. And the “good” California weather is getting old, very old. Since when does good weather come with flash fires, mudslides, parching drought, and unpredictable earthquakes?

          2. “And the “good” California weather is getting old, very old.”

            Up in eastern Washington the winters are long with months of freezing level temperatures although nothing near as extreme as the Great Lakes region. “Cabin fever” is a real thing especially for this California transplant.

          4. ” I’ve lived in $outhern CA all but 7 years of my life. ”

            Curiou$, now, how old$ is you? … (-7)

          5. “I’ve lived in Southern CA all but 7 years of my life.”

            It’s not easy leaving family and friends for the unknown.

    5. “9.55% on taxable income between $47,056 and $1,000,000
      10.55% on taxable income $1,000,001 or more”

      That’s a big marginal tax bite out of middle-class and above income levels.

      1. I think this table is more accurate the first one I posted seems outrageous even for CA. 56K – 286K is the big middle for single filers.

        Schedule X — Single or married/RDP filing separately
        Taxable income over But not over Tax is
        $0 $8,544 $0.00 + 1.00% of amount over $0
        $8,544 $20,255 $85.44 + 2.00% of amount over $8,544
        $20,255 $31,969 $319.66 + 4.00% of amount over $20,255
        $31,969 $44,377 $788.22 + 6.00% of amount over $31,969
        $44,377 $56,085 $1,532.70 + 8.00% of amount over $44,377
        $56,085 $286,492 $2,469.34 + 9.30% of amount over $56,085
        $286,492 $343,788 $23,897.19 + 10.30% of amount over $286,492
        $343,788 $572,980 $29,798.68 + 11.30% of amount over $343,788
        $572,980 AND OVER $55,697.38 + 12.30% of amount over $572,980

        1. And married 112K – 572K is the big net . I think most of silly valley ~40 years old falls in here even with adjustments to wage like 401k , Medical, kids, etc. The big net was designed for this.

          Schedule Y — Married/RDP filing jointly, or qualifying widow(er) with dependent child
          Taxable income over But not over Tax is
          $0 $17,088 $0.00 + 1.00% of amount over $0
          $17,088 $40,510 $170.88 + 2.00% of amount over $17,088
          $40,510 $63,938 $639.32 + 4.00% of amount over $40,510
          $63,938 $88,754 $1,576.44 + 6.00% of amount over $63,938
          $88,754 $112,170 $3,065.40 + 8.00% of amount over $88,754
          $112,170 $572,984 $4,938.68 + 9.30% of amount over $112,170
          $572,984 $687,576 $47,794.38 + 10.30% of amount over $572,984
          $687,576 $1,145,960 $59,597.36 + 11.30% of amount over $687,576
          $1,145,960 AND OVER $111,394.75 + 12.30% of amount over $1,145,960

    1. Fed meeting statement summary: “Coo, coo…”

      Nobody is going to be able to blame falling U.S. housing prices on rising interest rates!

      fastFT
      Central banks
      Fed eyes slowing global growth in rate setting
      Central bank keeps rates unchanged but signals flexibility on running down balance sheet
      Sam Fleming in Washington 23 minutes ago

      The Federal Reserve ditched guidance to investors suggesting further gradual rises in interest rates lie ahead, vowing to be “patient” in determining future changes given muted inflation and slowing global growth.

      In a dovish statement following its latest meeting, the Fed reassured investors that it was ready it was ready to adjust its policy of winding down its crisis-era stimulus programme if the economy deteriorates. It said it wanted to stick with a large balance sheet as it maintains its current framework for setting interest rates.

      US stocks and Treasury bonds rallied on the statement, with the yield on the rate-sensitive two-year bond falling sharply.

      In a unanimous decision, the US central bank kept the target range for its key rate unchanged at 2.25-2.5 per cent.

      Its officials have been on a mission in recent weeks to assure investors that it is not bent on raising rates again soon, and that it is ready to tweak its policy of running down the size of its $4tn balance sheet if the economy and markets hit a major setback.

      Jay Powell, the Fed chairman, set off tremors in global markets late last year as he struck a bullish note about the US economy and appeared to flag up the possibility of a number of further rate rises. But in its new post-meeting statement, the Fed on Wednesday dropped prior wording saying it “judges that some further gradual increases” in rates were merited.

      Instead, the Fed’s new statement said: “In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes.”
      …

      1. “…given muted inflation and slowing global growth…”

        Anybody who eats food or lives under a roof knows this is absolute BS. Who are they kidding?

        1. FED … report$ = $BD

          This the fart equivalent of James Bond. It slips out unnoticed, never revealing its $ource, and can clear a room in seconds. And just like 007, the silent fart has a licen$e to kill, hence the name $ilent But Deadly ($BD).

          The silent but deadly is also the preferred type of fart to utilize when performing a crop dusting—a tactic in which one farts while walking through a crowd in order to disperse the stink and avoid detection.

          Its also worth mentioning that an SBD is typically accompanied by extreme heat. This heat results from the added width of the anus at the time of an SBD which is why they are silent in the first place

        1. Anyone but the most liquidity-drunk bulls should tread lightly here. The Treasury yield curve is now fully inverted from 1-year out to 5-years. I realize there are lots of folks who claim that yield curve inversions don’t matter. Just like there are lots of people who go about saying that, “real estate always goes up.”

          1. Nice introductory explanation of the Treasury yield curve here. However, it omits discussion of the effects of Quantitative Easing or Tightening on the right end of the curve.

            1/29/2019 10:57AM
            Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve
            Amid a shaky marketplace, investors are eyeing the yield curve for signs of economic stability. History shows that when the yield curve inverts, a recession may soon follow. Photo Composite: Stephanie Swart for The Wall Street Journal.
            …

          2. The predicted effect of Quantitative Tightening, or shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, is to raise the long end of the yield curve from where it would otherwise be in the absence of this policy. Exactly where it would otherwise be, nobody knows.

    3. “Fed stre$$es patience on rate$, may adju$t balance-$heet runoff$”
      …

      You thought otherwi$e professor?

    1. This is hilarious. The DOW is at 25,000, an absolutely eye-popping bubble level, and the Fed has now decided to not only quit raising rates – with low rates being the reason for these massive bubble distortions in the first place – but to halt their balance sheet reduction.

      Life as we knew it on planet earth is over, folks, these central planners have decided to go all-in on the very drug that is destroying us. Everybody but the top earners are feeling the financial pressure that the hyperinflated cost of living these reckless policies has caused, and they’ve decided to tighten the vise that your balls are in.

        1. “This hangover remedy is not recommended because a) it leads to a bad habit of drinking during the day … ”

          Um, 1 pm PST, … feeling like a 3rd day is a brewin’ Professor …

          2. Poor man’$ cure for food poisoning, which also gets the liver, sudden like & quite deadly!

        1. Don’t get too excited yet. They are going to anything and everything, and I mean everything, to try to jack up house prices.

          2. We are looking to sell in Spring 2020 and have noticed asking prices dropping in Dublin, CA. I’m hoping that what the Fed has done today will prop them up for one more year so we can get out with decent profits. Alas, I suspect that the SALT massacre this April will kill the coastal housing markets. This is perhaps the most ingenious move by Trump during his presidency. Sort of like a smart bomb that only kills a selected class of victims.

      2. YouTube/Vegas RE agent comments, featuring Realtor® think:
        {Commenter} 1 week ago
        Inventory is sky rocketing, home builder stocks are in a huge bear market, record personal, student, and corporate debt, raising interest rates,.. it’s not about “timing the market,” it’s just seeing the absurdity of how much housing has risen relative to wage growth. Imo, the whole economy is in an over inflated bubble, which already has pop. the average American are struggling living pay check to pay check, they cannot afford these massively inflated price.

        {LV realtor in video} 3 days ago
        Well, I don’t disagree on some of your points. But you can’t really argue the resale homes are overpriced when we haven’t even recovered from the median price from 13 years ago?????

        So there’s no bubble, since used house prices have only risen to a level slightly lower than the last bubble.

  20. If I was a middle-class retiree in CA, i think Id hit the road, go live in Belize or Croatia, see the world… Fleeing to snowlandia, PHX or vegas sounds like hell.

  21. Chinbabwe….we live in So Oregon 5 years now, milder climate than up North, shorter Winter weather, drier. I lived in Portland 6 years, yes long months dark cloud cover, drizzly rains there. Lived in Cali for 20 years, majority people I meet here from Cali etc., anyway.

  22. 2.25 to 2.5 percent… doesn’t really give the FED much ammo to deal with whatever happens in the future.

    1. Happy day$ are here again:

      So long sad times
      Go long bad times
      We are rid of you at last
      Howdy gay times
      Cloudy gray times
      You are now a thing of the past
      Happy days are here again
      The skies above are clear again
      So let’s sing a song of cheer again
      Happy days are here again
      Altogether shout it now
      There’s no one
      Who can doubt it now
      So let’s tell the world about it now
      Happy days are here again
      Your cares and troubles are gone

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