It Has Built Too Much, And Relied Too Much On Debt To Do That

A report from the Spokesman Review in Washington. “In 2024, there were 26 homes in Spokane County that sold for more than $1.5 million. Of those, only nine were above $2 million, and only two homes sold for more than $3 million. Many of these multimillion-dollar homes would have sold for much less a few years ago, Spokane Realtors President Karene Loman said. ‘A $2 million home is what would have been a $1 million home before the pandemic,’ she said. Tom Hormel, Realtor and designated broker at RE/MAX of Spokane, said the overall market has shifted from a strong seller’s market, where buyers often had to compete with multiple offers, to a very soft seller’s market where homeowners must consider upgrades, fresh paint and other perks to get homes to move. ‘It’s a little bit of a neutral market,’ he said. ‘We are still a little more toward the seller’s market with the low inventory, but we have a little bit of a lack of buyers in the market right now.'”

“Higher costs to borrow money have prompted several buyers to wait as they hoped for greener pastures, he said. ‘I still hear it from buyers: ‘I’m waiting for the market to crash,’ Hormel said. ‘That’s not going to happen. The only way that happens is if the U.S. economy crashes. And if that happens, nobody’s going to care’ about mortgage rates.”

CBS News on Florida. “Rising repair costs spurred by new Florida condominium laws are driving some South Florida homeowners to sell, including residents of Springbrook Gardens, a condo building on Fort Lauderdale Beach. The trend extends beyond Springbrook Gardens. ‘We didn’t have $4.5 million for shoring the building,’ said Warren Sackler, a Springbrook Gardens condo owner. ‘We get calls every day from people asking, ‘What should I do?’ said longtime realtor Jeffrey Chenore. ‘My question is, ‘Do you have reserves?’ If there are none, it means people can’t buy,’ Chenore added, noting that the lack of reserves has contributed to a glut in the condo market.”

“With too many units for sale, some prices have begun to decline, but for many homeowners, that offers little consolation. Sackler, who owns a double unit at Springbrook Gardens, has removed his appliances and fixtures in preparation for the building’s demolition. He remains unsure of where he’ll go next or if a comparable waterfront unit will be affordable. ‘Nobody is happy,’ Sackler said. ‘They want to stay, but the costs are too much.'”

From Reuters. “The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau sued a unit of Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway on Monday, accusing it of pushing borrowers into unaffordable loans to buy homes from Clayton Homes, Berkshire’s manufactured housing business. Vanderbilt Mortgage and Finance, a unit of Clayton, allegedly ignored ‘clear and obvious red flags’ that borrowers could not afford their loans, and unreasonably underestimated their ability to pay other debts and keep food on the table. In one instance, Vanderbilt allegedly approved a home loan for a couple with three children that left them with $57.78 a month for discretionary spending after paying expenses. The couple eventually defaulted, the CFPB said. ‘Vanderbilt knowingly traps people in risky loans in order to close the deal on selling a manufactured home,’ CFPB Director Rohit Chopra said in a statement.”

From Denver 7. “The owner of a home remodeling company and his father — both in the midst of more than a dozen lawsuits — have been arrested and are now facing criminal theft and organized crime charges after a grand jury indictment. According to arrest affidavits dated Dec. 13, Sean and Avi Schwalb face multiple counts of theft between $100,000 and $1 million, theft between $20,000 and $100,000 and theft between $5,000 and $20,000. They also face multiple charges related to the violation of the Colorado Organized Crime Control Act. In total Sean and Avi face 34 and 30 felonies, respectively.”

“Over the past year, Denver7 Investigates has spoken to multiple victims of Schwalb Builders, including Kevin and Noelle Collins. The couple paid Schwalb Builders more than $250,000 for a remodel, only to be left with an unfinished job. The City of Denver issued a ‘stop work’ order and an independent engineering report said the house was ‘unsafe to occupy’ and noted that Schwalb Builders did not pull permits and was not licensed. The Collins family has spent the past year renting a home while also paying their mortgage on a house where they can’t live. Meanwhile, they said they were outraged by Sean Schwalb’s Instagram page that showed him living a lavish lifestyle, photographed with expensive cars and watches.”

Silicon Valley in California. “A new housing tower in Oakland was purchased by a local buyer in a deal worth millions, but about half of its recently assessed value. The apartment tower at 447 17th St. in downtown Oakland was bought for $99 million by Three Steps Properties, an East Bay real estate firm that acted through an affiliate, according to documents filed on Dec. 20, 2024, with the Alameda County Recorder’s Office. As of January 2024, an estimate from the Alameda County Assessor’s Office placed an assessed value of $209.8 million on the apartment complex. This means that Three Steps Properties bought it for a price that was 53% below the latest assessed value for the parcel — fading property values can play a big factor in the assessment.”

“The Oakland and Emeryville apartment markets are showing some signs of struggling. In recent months, multiple apartment complexes have been seized by their lenders to satisfy delinquent or failing loans. Among the problem properties: — A 206-unit, 24-story housing tower at 1700 Webster St. in downtown Oakland was taken back on Aug. 28, 2024, by its lender due to a delinquent $90-million loan. — The Logan, a 204-unit apartment complex at Telegraph Avenue and 51st Street, was taken by a real estate firm that had bought the property’s loan and then foreclosed on the financing vehicle on Nov. 27, 2024. — In September 2024, Bayview, a 186-unit apartment complex in Emeryville, was seized by its lender CIM Group on Sept. 20 through a deed in lieu of foreclosure procedure.”

Bisnow on Georgia. “Even office buildings constructed in the 21st century aren’t safe from the wrecking ball. As owners of commercial properties in Atlanta’s suburbs grapple with anemic demand and values that have plummeted in recent years, many are coming to the realization that their buildings — even those that haven’t yet celebrated their 25th birthday — are worth no more than the land they’re built on. In recent months, more and more buildings are being sold to developers who plan on tearing them down. ‘I never thought I would see that, but that’s where we are in the cycle,’ said Brian Granath, a partner with OA Development in Atlanta who owns a portfolio of suburban office buildings in Metro Atlanta. ‘There’s too much suburban office product.'”

“Bridge Investment Group paid $41M in 2021 for the Brookside office park in Alpharetta that was developed in 2000. It said in a press release at the time that its investment would benefit from ‘burgeoning demand in suburban office markets as companies put greater emphasis on flexibility, value and closer proximity to the homes of employees.’ That expected demand resurgence never came. Less than four years later, Bridge struck a deal to sell the property to Portman Holdings, which plans on tearing down one of the five-story office buildings and replacing it and surface parking with 350 apartments, 90 townhomes and 60K SF of retail. ‘To me, it’s personal,’ said Gregg Metcalf, a 34-year CRE veteran who developed the Brookside office complex with The Alter Group. ‘I built that office building in 2000. It delivered in 2000. We’re tearing it down in 2024.'”

CBC News in Canada. “Edriam Salter covers her nose with her sweater as she takes tentative steps through the Ottawa house she and her sister used to call home. ‘I can’t believe this was the place I used to live, this was my family home. It just smells like a zoo, even a zoo smells better,’ Salter said. The 29-year-old takes in the damage she says was caused by her previous tenants. Salter says they only paid rent for three months of their 13-month tenancy, owing her more than $35,000. She invited CBC for a tour of the property just minutes after she got the keys back following a lengthy battle at Ontario’s Landlord and Tenant Board (LTB). ‘I did my traditional wedding right here in this living room, but now looking at it. It’s not the happy memories we once shared here,’ Salter said, fighting back tears.”

“Salter said the tenants, Megan and Justin, first moved into her home in August 2023 and were evicted this September. CBC is withholding the couple’s surnames to prevent the identification of their children, who have had to move from home to home with them. Salter said Megan and Justin are professional tenants and are intentionally not paying rent. ‘I’m not the only one she’s done it to. There’s another landlord, the landlord before me and the landlord before that and the landlord before that landlord,’ she said. Salter said the whole experience has left her emotionally and financially drained. ‘I don’t feel motivated mentally, I don’t feel motivated emotionally, like I’ve just lost faith in a lot of things, in people in general,’ she said.”

“CBC also spoke to three of Megan and Justin’s previous landlords, all of whom own properties in and near Orléans and had similar experiences with the couple. In total, the landlords say the couple has racked up nearly $100,000 in unpaid rent. That doesn’t include thousands more in other costs, they said. Misghina Kidane said he rented his home to Megan and Justin in July 2020. He had decided to rent out his place to make some extra money while he lived with a friend and awaited the arrival of his family from Sudan. It’s been four years, but Kidane remembers the tenants like it was yesterday. ‘Megan and Justin was living here for one year, one month and 15 days,’ he said. ‘She paid me first and last month’s [rent] and she added me $1,000 … and after that she’s done,’ he explained, adding Megan told him she had lost her job due to COVID-19.”

“That’s when Janie and Taylor Bastien entered the picture. They lived nearby and were renting out their family home in Orléans while working in Coquitlam, B.C. Janie Bastien said she trusted Megan despite being unable to reach the references she provided on the rental application. Now, she realizes her trust was misplaced. ‘It’s like a wave of betrayal. I trusted this woman to come into my home, I trusted her with some of the furniture I left…. We seemed to bond a bit even if she’s a total stranger,’ Bastien said. Taylor Bastien said by October, the couple was already two months behind with their rent payments. Around that time, he returned to Ottawa to deal with a plumbing issue at the home. Bastien gave the tenants the option of a clean slate if they packed up and left. ‘She smiled at me, this big Cheshire grin, and she said, ‘We’re not going anywhere,’ he recalled. ‘I’ll never forget it because clearly she was a professional and she was well-armed. She knew the system. She knew the name of every form, the number of every form.'”

From ABC News. “Most Australians have become all too aware of how tightly our economic fortunes have become entwined with China, but perhaps we’re still guilty of ignoring some key warning signs from our largest trading partner. Nowhere is this more apparent than in real estate. China’s gargantuan property bust has been in the headlines for several years, with some of the world’s biggest developers, notably Evergrande, collapsing under a mountain of debt and unsold and unfinished units. But, arguably, this property meltdown should have been receiving far more attention Down Under than it has.”

“To put a number on it, there could be as many as 80 million vacant units in China — that’s more than seven times the total number of homes currently standing in Australia. Harvard professor and former IMF chief economist Kenneth Rogoff and his co-author Yuanchen Yang of the IMF, argue that China has built more living space per person than many wealthier Western nations, even though much of it sits empty. Leading independent Australian economist Chris Richardson is scathing of China’s property excesses. ‘It has built too much, and relied too much on debt to do that. That’s why property markets began slowing in 2022, and there’s plenty of pain still to be felt,’ he tweeted.”

“‘The demographic swing has been remarkable — China is ageing fast. Its birthrate has collapsed, while the number of those aged 65+ will reach 300 million this year,’ he wrote on X. ‘Those low birthrates are self-inflicted. Who can afford to house a baby in a nation where ‘home-price-to-income ratios in Beijing, Shenzhen, and Shanghai had reached levels nearly double those of London and Singapore, and three times those of Tokyo and New York,’ he added, quoting figures from the recent report by Rogoff and Yang.”