There’s No One Here To Buy

1. Realtors are liars.

   1. Realtors are liars

2. ‘We’ve had a couple break-ins right here with my parents vehicles as well, just being vandalized’

   Check out the photos. It looks like downtown LA.

   1. If you pan the camera a few meters to the left, you’ll see another crime scene where a realtor lied to someone.

   2. Looks like the developer paid too much for the land, so there was no way they could turn a profit, or breakeven, when higher interest rates entered the picture. But there’s a significant investment in below ground infrastructure, streets, sidewalks, curbs, streetlights, etc. Maybe the developer can go bankrupt, reopen under a new name, buy the partial development at auction from the bank and finish the project?

      1. I’m gonna guess that Austin’s meteoric growth has ended and now there is a huge surplus of nearly new and new homes. The only real question is how long until the city has the unfinished homes bulldozed before they are set on fire by meth heads After that the empty lots could lay idle for years, if not decades. And since they are built on slabs there are no basements that need to be filled in.

         Of course, given how irresponsible many leftist muni govs are, they might just leave it all there until it burns down

   3. Those don’t look like luxury homes, even if they had been finished.

      1. nonagenarian

         Everything in housing is labeled luxury now (even when not even close to luxury), and prices say everything should be luxury.
         Thank you federal reserve and “investors” using low interest loans that will never be paid back when asset prices drop. America is no longer industrialized, it is financialized and every asset is on the gambling table.

         1. And right now thousands of those overpriced shacks, many uninsured, are burning to the ground.

3. Zimbabwe R Us. Heckova job, Biden. Heckova job, uniparty.

   https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/1877854719479079164

4. Realtors are liars.

5. ‘Paulicpulle, who represents dozens of clients with rental income properties in Toronto, says renters are telling landlords that they want to pay less than asking and are making requests for specific improvements when they do make offers’

   That’s the spirit!

6. “The scope of the project was $250,000, and that meant basically raiding retirement money,’

   You see, that’s the thing about homes or any structure. They can and will breakdown. They can and will cost you a lot of money to repair. They can and will cost you a ton of money to insure. And you can expect your local government to continue to schlong you on property taxes. So thinking homeownership is an instant way to wealth is delusional.

   1. Wut? Suzanne’s research tells me this listing is special. She has only her clients’ best interests at heart and would never push them into a financially ruinous purchase of an overpriced shack on the cusp of a bursting housing bubble. Her research confirms that signing on Mr. Banker’s line which is dotted is the best way to build effortless riches.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i3PNamYe0iQ

   2. “They can and will breakdown”

      The foundation of the 100+ year old house I bought is visibly bowed, sagging, you can see it from the street. It’s been shored at least once, but that didn’t save it.

      What did people build with in Southern Colorado 100+ years ago? Some weird stew of concrete containing river rocks the size of my fist. A few blasts with the hammer chisel and I can pull chunks out by hand with a sledge and pry bar.

      Related question since you’re an inspector (different jurisdiction, I know), can I demo this down to grade and leave it in the ground? Re-build on top of it with a smaller foundation footprint, or the whole thing needs to come out including the floor?

      1. Trying to understand. Are you talking about burying the existing foundation and then placing new foundation within the old footprint? Tricky. Normally you want to get down to native undisturbed soils to establish foundation. Once you start bringing in soils there is all sorts of compaction requirements that need to take place. For example, when we have folks that remove pools and then want to build on it there is usually a soils analysis that takes place by an engineer and then a prescribed fill/compaction process. I just had one like this where they needed a daily special inspection to test compaction and then we collect the report at the end of the process. Most of the time it’s cheaper just to tear everything out and begin from native undisturbed soils.

         1. And even undisturbed soils may require compaction.

         2. +1

            I’ll try to explain. At the front of the house, foundation extends about 4-5′ above grade, sloping up to about 18″ above grade at the back of the house. Floor of basement to top of foundation is about 7′ (people were smaller then).

            I plan to remove all of above grade myself, with the help of a neighbor who owns his own bobcat.

            Beyond that, I’m handing a Very Large Check to someone to bring it the bigger equipment to scoop out remaining foundation walls and floor, about an estimated 1,500 square feet of area.

7. Globalist oligarch Mark Zuckerberg belongs in prison for financing the 2020 election steal.

   https://x.com/MAGAVoice/status/1877817599876120704

   1. Plz drop Rep. Thomas Massie’s name if he’s in the video clip.

      His name is barely known, getting more known now.

      Let’s take the time to help him. Look at his voting record.

8. Hundreds of condo units are for sale in Sunrise, ‘but there’s no one here to buy.’”

   I’m no economics major like AOC, but doesn’t an overage of supply coupled with an absence of demand mean prices are gonna crater?

9. ‘Everyone keeps calling it a down market, but it’s very normal for property to be on the market six or nine months, even longer.’”

   Joan, as each new month’s data comes out, your failed attempts to put lipstick on a pig are going to look even more disingenuous.

   1. ” ‘Everyone keeps calling it a down market, but it’s very normal for property to be on the market six or nine months, even longer.’ ”
      

      – “Denial ain’t just a river in Egypt.” – Mark Twain

      – “In 1969, Elisabeth Kübler-Ross described five common stages of grief, popularly referred to as DABDA. They include:”

      1) Denial – You are here, Joan…
      2) Anger
      3) Bargaining
      4) Depression
      5) Acceptance

      – Oh, Canada!
      – I would say that for the U.S., and probably Canada as well, “normal” days on market (DOM) is around 30 days (max.). It takes nine months to make a baby, not sell a house. 🙃 I think that 6-9 months DOM is ridiculous and says the market is (way) overpriced and/or there’s a recession going on. Canada’s RRE market is way worse than the U.S., which is saying a lot, and is way beyond the dumpster fire stage; it’s at the slow-motion train wreck stage…

      – She may be confusing DOM with months of inventory. 🙃 Even so, 6-9 months of inventory is high and indicates a buyer’s market, in my view.

      1. For the second weekend in a row, a house near me is hosting an open house.

         The current owners bought in September 2024, painted, and relisted in October with a reasonable $125,000 increase.

         Maybe it will sell after a reasonable 9 months on the market.

10. At Big White, located outside Kelowna, single-family detached homes decreased nearly 14 per cent to $1.5 million, while the average condo price fell about 22 per cent to $413,000.

    Is that a lot?

11. Eleven of the 19 regions the site tracks recorded an average price drop year-on-year. The biggest were in Central Otago, down 17.3 percent to $1.325 million, the central North Island, down 11 percent to $708,350 and Bay of Plenty down 10.9 percent to $823,926.”

    BOHICA time, FBs.

12. “They Didn’t Even Bother To Verify”: Fortune Magazine Tricked Into Musk Hit Piece By Internet Rando.

    https://www.zerohedge.com/political/they-didnt-even-bother-verify-fortune-magazine-tricked-musk-hit-piece-internet-rando

    1. layers and layers of fact checkers and editors.

13. DHS head Mayorkas just extended the temporary visas for a bunch of Venezuelan criminaIs for an additional 18 months.

    https://x.com/WallStreetMav/status/1877836531613704424

    1. Visas can be revoked.

    2. DHS head Kristi Noem will reverse them as soon as she is sworn in.

14. ‘”Thank you, California insurance companies, for supporting residents who pay taxes and love California. And they wonder why people leave,’ she added, tongue in cheek.”

    I wonder why insurance companies leave.

    1. Salon
       Insurers began leaving California years before latest wildfire
       Natalie Chandler
       Thu, January 9, 2025 at 10:15 AM PST
       2 min read
       Chimneys of burnt down home Palisades California Los Angeles LA AGUSTIN PAULLIER/AFP via Getty Images

       As wildfires in California have worsened in recent years, some insurers have said they’re done covering the damage.

       State Farm and Allstate said in 2023 and 2022 they would stop writing new policies in California due to fears of massive losses from wildfires and other natural disasters, NBC Bay Area reported. The Hartford said last year it would stop selling new fire insurance policies. Liberty Mutual said it would stop offering condo and rental insurance in 2025 and would begin dropping coverage for existing clients in 2026.

       AccuWeather estimates $52 billion to $57 billion in preliminary damage and economic loss from the Los Angeles wildfires that began this week.
       …
       https://www.yahoo.com/news/insurers-began-leaving-california-years-181532418.html

    2. I have a feeling this stupid US government will pay for the rebuilds for people without insurance. I actually know one family personally that I believe lost his house PP….he doesn’t know yet… 3 million dollar home and his insurance was dropped 4 months ago. He owns a brush manufacturer in City of Industry and I broker/represent them here in the Carolina’s. Sad situation.

       1. I don’t see all the paperwork being approved and budgeted by Jan 20.

          1. Colorado….remember trump gave away trillions in covid money. He like to stimulate things.

             1. We’ll see what happens.

             2. remember trump gave away trillions in covid money.
                My concern too.
                but if he helps CA and says FU to NC, and surrounding states he could get a lot of backlash. I personally unaffected but I know people who got hit badly and people who drove a firetruck to assist, a certified electrician who had a Mom and brother without power for an extended period of time so he brought them generators, as well as donating to help the pets. The pets food was flown in by private plane.
                Very little help from what I have been told, but again, i was east of the carnage. It was personal to people in the area and it won’t take many flipped voters in NC and GA to turn them blue.

             3. Trump did not give away anything.
                Congress passed a bill with bilateral support during their perceived crisis and he was faced with the choice of sign or veto. His choice was – sign and be pilloried for spending money with abandon or veto and be pilloried by mainstream media as evil man killing people and allowing everything to collapse.
                As it turned out, the whole crisis was not caused by covid but the government’s to perceived threat.

             4. sign and be pilloried for spending money with abandon or veto and be pilloried by mainstream media as evil man killing people and allowing everything to collapse

                🛎🛎🛎🛎🛎

             5. Via Wikipedia, CARES Act Legislative History:
                Introduced in the House as H.R. 748 (Middle Class Health Benefits Tax Repeal Act of 2019) by Joe Courtney (D-CT) on January 24, 2019[a]
                Committee consideration by House Ways and Means
                Passed the House on July 17, 2019[a] (419–6)
                Passed the Senate as the Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act on March 25, 2020 (96–0) with amendment
                House agreed to Senate amendment on March 27, 2020 (voice vote)
                Signed into law by President Donald Trump on March 27, 2020

       2. Too much of California is overpriced. The feds should not “build a floor under houses priced at 10x income. To paraphrase Dubya, “How did we get here?”

          1. It raises a lot of serious questions. Why should newly homeless people be worth so much free money when the scores of previously homeless people have not been given free million dollar houses? Should people that got burned out of apartments not get a free house too? Also, why should people in Appalachia be expected to help pay for it? Apparently all liberals are equal, but some liberals are more equal than others. I’m sure it will all be fine. Think of the lesbians!

    3. “I wonder why insurance companies leave.”

       Perhaps it is because of decisions such as this:

       Gov. Newsom cut fire budget by $100M months before lethal California fires.

       https://www.yahoo.com/news/gov-newsom-cut-fire-budget-020119384.html

       A review of last year’s California state budget shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom cut funding for wildfire and forest resilience by more than $100 million.

       The budget, signed in June and covering the 2024-25 fiscal year, eliminated $101 million from seven “wildfire and forest resilience” programs, according to a report from Newsweek.

       The California fires, responsible for destroying more than 10,000 buildings in the Los Angeles area, are still not contained.

       Cal Fire had a $5 million reduction in spending on fuel reduction teams, including funds used to pay for vegetation management work by the California National Guard, the report noted.

       Other changes:

       $28 million cut from multiple state conservancies that expand wildfire resilience

       $12 million cut from a “home hardening” experiment that would protect homes from wildfires

       $8 million cut from monitoring and research spending, mostly dedicated to Cal Fire and state universities

       $4 million cut from the forest legacy program, which encourages landowners to manage their properties

       $3 million cut from funding for an inter-agency forest data hub

       Newsom’s director of communications, Izzy Gardon, called the budget cuts a “ridiculous lie,” in a statement to Fox News Digital Friday night.

       “The governor has doubled the size of our firefighting army, built the world’s largest aerial firefighting fleet and the state has increased the forest management ten-fold since he took office,” she wrote. “Facts matter.”

       His office attached statistics that refer to the overall increase in spending and personnel over a number of years since he took office in 2019, as opposed to commenting on the most recent cuts.

       Cal Fire did not immediately respond to a request for comment as of 8 p.m. Friday.

       1. A review of last year’s California state budget shows California Gov. Gavin Newsom cut funding for wildfire and forest resilience by more than $100 million.
          That makes sense, he needed the money for future Reparation payments

          1. he needed the money for

             Illegals and resisting Trump.

15. Heckova job, “Zimbabwe Ben” Bernanke, Yellen the Felon, & BlackRock Jay.

    https://x.com/bravosresearch/status/1877747237511713189

16. “‘They’ve lived in this house for 75 years, and they’ve had the same insurance, and these insurance people decided to cancel their fire [insurance],’ said Lynn Levin-Guzman, the couple’s daughter, donning an N95 face mask as smoke rises by her family home.”

    The insurance companies are in the business of assuming risks. It seems these insurance companies were able to see risks that you could (or would) not see.
    The insurance company you had for 75 years decided to cancel your fire insurance. You should be asking the question “Why did they do that? What risks did they see that I did not?”

    Cancelling insurance policies should act as a red flag for the insured because cancelling insurance policies signals that there has been a change regarding the risks. This should not be all that difficult to understand.

    1. The part I don’t understand is why there isn’t some price of insurance where it is worth it for the insurance company to assume the risk they are insuring. I suspect California state government meddling in insurance markets makes it impossible for private insurers to charge appropriately high premiums to cover the risks they are insuring, but I don’t know the details at this point.

       1. [From The New Yorker …]

          The Insurance Crisis That Will Follow the California Fires
          For years, experts have warned that homeowner insurance in the state could easily collapse.
          By Elizabeth Kolbert
          January 10, 2025

          https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/the-insurance-crisis-that-will-follow-the-california-fires#:~:text=In%202023%2C%20two%20giant%20insurers,%E2%80%9Crapidly%20growing%20catastrophe%20exposure.%E2%80%9D

          ast week, on the day before New Year’s Eve, California’s insurance commissioner, Ricardo Lara, announced what his office called “a landmark regulation” to improve access to coverage. The new rule, the commissioner declared, would address the problems that California homeowners were facing in the present and, at the same time, build “a resilient insurance market for the future.” Then the Palisades Fire ignited, soon to be followed by the Eaton Fire, the Hurst Fire, the Lidia Fire, and the Sunset Fire. With damages from these still mostly uncontrolled blazes now estimated at up to a hundred and fifty billion dollars, the future of California’s insurance market is looking a lot more rocky than resilient. As one L.A.-based insurance agent put it to the Wall Street Journal, “We are in uncharted territory.”

          What is often referred to as California’s “insurance crisis” has been years in the making. The devastating Camp Fire, near Chico in 2018, caused an estimated sixteen and a half billion dollars’ worth of damage and led to a net loss for companies that had written fire policies in the state that year. In 2019, the number of homeowners’ policies in California that were not renewed jumped by more than thirty per cent. In 2023, two giant insurers, State Farm and Allstate, announced that they would stop writing new policies for various forms of property insurance in California. State Farm said the move came in response to inflation and “rapidly growing catastrophe exposure.” Last summer, it cancelled coverage for more than fifteen hundred homes in Pacific Palisades, the wealthy enclave where the first of the L.A. blazes began.

          There are several reasons that “catastrophe exposure” in California has in recent years been growing. One is that more people are moving into wildfire-prone areas. Another is that fires are becoming more destructive, in large measure owing to climate change. A 2023 study concluded that the area consumed by summer wildfires in central and northern California has increased by five hundred per cent during the past several decades and that “nearly all of the observed increase” is due to warming. Another study, put out last year by the group Climate Central, found that rising temperatures had increased the number of “fire weather days”—windy, hot, and dry—throughout California. This was particularly the case in the desert basin east of L.A., which now has an average of sixty-one more such days per year than it did five decades ago. “As our climate warms, the chances of intense, fast-growing fires like the ones Californians are facing today will keep rising,” Kaitlyn Trudeau, a senior research associate at Climate Central, said on Wednesday.

          Making a bad situation worse, at least from the insurance companies’ perspective, California’s insurance department made it hard for them to recoup or even project the growing costs of weather-related disasters. Until department rules were revised last year, they prevented companies from using so-called catastrophe models to forecast losses from wildfires; insurers could only look backward, at historical losses. Also, until last month, they could not pass on the costs of reinsurance, which is basically insurance for insurers, and which has been rising steeply in price.

          In return for the changes to the rules, insurers are now required to write more policies for homeowners in wildfire-prone areas. Some consumer advocates condemned the deal as too favorable to the industry. Others hoped that it would, finally, improve access to coverage. “We were all thinking 2025 is going to be the year insurers regain their appetite for the market in California,” Amy Bach, the executive director of United Policyholders, a California-based nonprofit, told NBC News. “Having this catastrophe hit us right out of the gate is really unfortunate.”

          California is, of course, not the only state facing—or not facing up to—a climate-inflected insurance crisis. After a series of devastating hurricanes—Harvey in 2017, Ida in 2021, Helene and Milton in 2024—property owners in Florida, Louisiana, and Texas are also finding insurance increasingly hard to afford or even obtain. The situation is similar in Colorado, where, as in California, wildfire risks are climbing. “We’re a few bad decisions away from being where California is,” Carole Walker, the executive director of the Rocky Mountain Insurance Information Association, told CBS.

          For homeowners who can’t find fire insurance, California has an insurer of last resort, known as the Fair Access to Insurance Requirements, or FAIR, plan. The FAIR plan was established by the state, but it is operated by private companies, which pool the risks. Florida, Louisiana, and Texas have similar entities, and Colorado recently established one. As insurers have pulled out of California, the number of policies written by the state’s FAIR plan has risen steeply; just since late 2023, it has grown by more than forty per cent. Meanwhile, the value of the residential properties insured by FAIR has risen to more than four hundred and fifty billion dollars, triple what it was in 2020. This has led to worries that, with all the damage from the current fires, the plan will go broke.

          “I’m concerned that we’re one bad fire season away from complete insolvency,” Jim Wood, then a California assemblyman, said back in March. Were FAIR unable to meet its obligations, the state’s insurance companies would have to make up the difference. They, in turn, would pass on at least part of the cost of this assessment to consumers, further driving up prices.

          All of which raises the question of what role insurance can—and should—play in a warming world. As the dangers of climate change in California have increased, FAIR has absorbed much of the risk. This has been a boon to homeowners in the most fire-prone neighborhoods, but it could prove a burden to other state residents if they end up picking up the tab.

          “The bet on the FAIR Plan is the state’s decision to do whatever it takes to keep property markets working, even in risky areas, and to mute the price signal of riskiness,” Susan Crawford, a clinical professor emeritus at Harvard Law, wrote in a recent Substack post. “That bet may now be being called. No one knows what will happen next.” ♦

       2. Are you a winnah = California homeowner?

          1. UC Berkeley News home
             Researchers reveal a hidden factor in California’s insurance crisis: The ‘winner’s curse’
             As lawmakers scramble to reform homeowners’ insurance regulations, a new study examines how insurers are pricing wildfire risk — and how different strategies can significantly impact premiums.
             By Kara Manke
             A firefighter takes a hose to a burning property while battling the Fairview Fire on Monday, Sept. 5, 2022, near Hemet, Calif.
             Ethan Swope/AP

             July 18, 2024

             Homeowners across the country are scrambling to keep up with the rising price of property insurance — and for people living in disaster-prone areas, the options for insuring their property are dwindling. Many insurers are raising premiums significantly or leaving high-risk markets altogether.

             While climate change is a contributing factor, data suggest that higher rates are not always correlated with higher risks of climate-related disasters, like wildfires and hurricanes. In California, lawmakers are scrambling to reform regulations that were not designed with the pressures of climate change in mind.

             “All of a sudden, regulators are finding themselves on the front lines of climate change, and that creates real challenges in rethinking how we’re regulating these property insurance markets,” said Meredith Fowlie, a professor of agricultural and resource economics at UC Berkeley.

             Fowlie is co-author of a new study that takes a deep dive into the relationship between wildfire risk and insurance prices in California. Berkeley News spoke with Fowlie about the findings, which reveal how an economics phenomenon called the “winner’s curse” is an under-appreciated factor behind rising insurance premiums, and what this may mean for insurance regulators and consumers in the state.

             The study was published as a National Bureau of Economic Research working paper and is co-authored by Judson Boomhower of UC San Diego, Jacob Gellman of the University of Alaska Anchorage and Andrew J. Plantinga of UC Santa Barbara.
             …
             https://news.berkeley.edu/2024/07/18/researchers-reveal-a-hidden-factor-in-californias-insurance-crisis-the-winners-curse/

       3. Research Report
          California’s Homeowner Insurance Market Freefall: Regulatory Folly Run Amok
          Richard Maher,
          July 2, 2024
          Key Takeaways
          California’s homeowner insurance market is in the grips of an urgent crisis as major insurers cancel existing policies, refuse to write new policies, and, in some cases, abandon the state’s insurance market entirely.

          Insurers’ unsustainable losses are largely due to poor forest management, which has contributed to wildfires that are more severe and destructive than any recorded in California history.

          Insurers’ losses have grown exponentially to unsustainable levels. California’s leaders must focus on better forest management and free market solutions to bring insurers back into the state’s market and restore reasonable costs.

          Introduction
          Almost daily, news stories appear of yet another insurer refusing to write new California homeowner policies or canceling current ones. California’s leaders are now scrambling to find solutions. Unfortunately, most of their proposals merely repeat the same mistakes that precipitated the crisis—years of a misguided approach to environmentalism and market interventions in the form of price caps and over-regulation. Instead of making the situation worse, California must fix its regulatory approach and remove impediments to a well-functioning insurance market.

          Conditions in the state—specifically, the severe California wildfires over the last decade—have subjected providers to extreme losses. Now, California leaders find themselves trying to fix the very problems with state residents’ home insurance policies that they created. According to the 2021 California Property & Casualty Market Share Report, losses incurred by insurance companies more than tripled to over $15 billion in 2017 from slightly more than $4 billion in 2016 (California Department of Insurance, 2022). In 2018, losses remained high at $13 billion. Before 2017, California insurers never incurred losses greater than $5 billion (Howard, 2023).

          The factors that influence the financial viability of the companies involved in the homeowner insurance market are delicate—particularly those that drive premiums and influence profit margins. Premiums[1] are not arbitrary prices. In the absence of government manipulation, premiums are driven almost entirely by anticipated claim expenses faced by insurers, which depend on the frequency of claims, the severity of damage, and the cost of repairs.

          More frequent and destructive wildfires, coupled with inflation in construction and rebuilding costs, are the key culprits behind rising premiums. Imposing arbitrary government regulations, putting caps on insurance premium rate increases, or providing subsidies to ratepayers do nothing to address these underlying cost drivers. Subsidies and price controls do nothing to change the circumstances in which these catastrophic wildfires took place All these interventions can do is shift the cost from one set of beneficiaries to another or push insurers to either cancel certain types of plans or exit the market entirely.

          To both stem and solve the crisis, California must lift the caps on insurance premium rate increases that currently encourage people to live in high-risk areas and that allow the state to shift the cost of poor forest management onto policyholders instead of addressing the underlying risk of future catastrophic wildfires.

          Causes of the Market Crisis

          Why have insurer losses in the California homeowner insurance market been so large in recent years when wildfires have been commonplace in California since at least the Gold Rush? Over the last decade or so, the cost of paying policyholder damages has grown exponentially more expensive as wildfire disasters have grown more destructive and intense. Since 2017, 10 million forest acres and 39,000 homes have been reported destroyed in California due to wildfires (Howard, 2023). Indeed, eight of the 10 largest recorded wildfires in California have occurred since 2017, with four of the six largest having occurred in 2020 alone.
          …
          https://americafirstpolicy.com/issues/californias-homeowner-insurance-market-freefall-regulatory-folly-run-amok

    2. “Before the devastating Los Angeles fires this week, California already had a looming insurance crisis on its hands.”

       Somewhere embodied in this sentence is a message.

    3. The insurance company you had for 75 years

       That must be one really old homeowner.

17. Has owning a home in California turned into a game of Russian roulette with the risk a wildfire will burn down your uninsurable home?

    1. Why would you buy a home in California or Florida? It’s pure stupidity. If you have to live there renting makes so much more sense. If you need to invest in real estate, own a piece of land or home somewhere else while you rent in these places. Renting isn’t always throwing money away. Sometimes it’s a great way to keep money in your pocket.

       1. “If you have to live there renting makes so much more sense.”

          I can’t believe how high our rent is, but it still is way cheaper than buying a comparable place, especially if price appreciation slows from insanely high Pandemic Era rates of increase.

          Some stylized facts:

          – The rent Zestimate on the place where we live is $4.5K. (We negotiated a lower payment.)

          – The Zestimate itself is ~$1.33 million.

          – The 30-year mortgage rate is currently at 7.25%.

          Does anyone know what the monthly mortgage payment on a $1.33 million loan at 7.25% is?

          I’ll see if AI can help.

          1. ChatGPT
             Today

             Mortgage Payment Calculation

             You said:

             What is the monthly mortgage payment on a $1.33 million no-down payment loan at 7.25%?

             ChatGPT said:

             To calculate the monthly mortgage payment for a $1.33 million loan at an interest rate of 7.25%, we can use the standard mortgage formula:
             M=P×r(1+r)n(1+r)n−1
             M=P×(1+r)n−1r(1+r)n​

             Where:

             MM = Monthly payment
             PP = Loan amount ($1,330,000)
             rr = Monthly interest rate (annual rate divided by 12)
             nn = Total number of payments (loan term in years × 12)

             Calculation:

             Loan Amount (PP): $1,330,000
             Annual Interest Rate: 7.25% = 0.0725
             Monthly Interest Rate (rr): 0.0725 ÷ 12 = 0.00604
             Loan Term: Typically 30 years = 360 months

             Substituting these values into the formula:
             M=1,330,000×0.00604(1+0.00604)360(1+0.00604)360−1
             M=1,330,000×(1+0.00604)360−10.00604(1+0.00604)360​

             Let me calculate this.

             The monthly mortgage payment on a $1.33 million loan at 7.25% interest for 30 years would be approximately $9,072.94. ​

             ChatGPT can make mistakes. Check important info.

          2. The AI-based monthly mortgage payment calculation looks reasonable, and I am too lazy and indifferent to independently check it.

             In summary, at current mortgage interest rates, the monthly mortgage payment over 30 years required to purchase the place we rent is roughly twice as high as the market rent payment, according to Zillow. And we pay less than Zillow’s rent estimate.

             How can it possibly pencil out to buy a home in coastal California under current market conditions?

             1. How can it possibly pencil out to buy a home in coastal California under current market conditions?

                You’ll make it up in appreciation. In 30 years, you’ll own it and rent will be $30,000 per month!

          3. Markets
             Mortgage Rates Jump Sharply Higher After Jobs Report
             By: Matthew Graham
             Fri, Jan 10 2025, 3:57 PM

             Mortgage rates were already at 6 month highs earlier this week so it didn’t take much of a push to send them up to new 7 month highs today.

             The push in question came from today’s hotly-anticipated jobs report. No other economic report has as much consistent potential to cause volatility for interest rates. As such, when today’s job creation headline came in at much higher levels than expected, it was an easy decision for traders to push rates to higher levels.

             The average top tier 30yr fixed rate was closer to 7.125% yesterday. After today’s route, that rate is now almost perfectly centered on the 7.25% level (mortgage rates are typically offered in 0.125% increments).

             These are the highest levels since May 2024.
             …
             https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-01102025

          4. but it still is way cheaper than buying a comparable place
             I am currently in SE Asia and renting. To buy about the equal unit in the same building would cost me about 25% more based on online estimates provided. And that assumes a 4.4% interest rate, 10% down. Could the bubble be world wide?

             1. Yes.

18. The far left wanted to defund the police. They wanted invasion of the US Borders. They wanted diversity in hiring by unqualified people. They wanted minors brainwashed into transgender operations . They wanted mandated expiermental fake vaccines. They didn’t want to do fire prevention, or even have water for LA fire threat. They want global wars. They want gain of function creation of disease. They want high crime. Destruction of small business. They want to censor free speech. They want 15 minute cities, you will own nothing and eat bugs. They want to release toxic mosquitoes, block out sun, and suck up co2 carbons, and kill chickens and livestock . They won’t take a unsafe and not effective MRNA failed vaccine technology off market and they are putting this killer technology in more products. They want lockdowns and masks .They want Banks to control you consumption and Monopoly Corporations controlling consumption as
    they control all resources with a One World Order Global Government. They want to take all freedoms and Constitutional protections based on manufactured fake Global emergencies like Climate Change and Panademics. They want a World Dictorship that deprived the global populations of
    pursuit of happiness for equity by commie and fascist BS. They want to destroy 40 to 50 % of the jobs in the next 10 years by AI and Robot replacement.

    All of the above will be forced on World populations by THE POWERS THAT BE that are working in collusion with infiltrated World Governments.

    When they say you will own nothing, eat bugs and be happy , take them at their word, that’s their end game. Look at LA burning. And I forgot to mention the appalling state of affairs of Health Insurance Co denying coverage, causing widespread death and bankruptcy , as well as property insurance making ownership becoming impossible.

    It was all pre planned. Its all nuts and soon they will attempt a Panademic based on who knows which pathogen , using the bogus PCR test to declare whatever they want. Maybe World War 3 will be the next big destructive act. The rigged economic systems are on verge of collapse.

    We don’t know what the new Trump administration is going to be able to do.
    These Powers That Be are anarchist who want to tear down civilization and all prior systems , loot the resources of earth , and subject billions of people to their forced enslavement and genocide of humanity. All the evidence adds up to this power grab by fraudster psychopaths and Rich Elites like that devil Bill Gates, Soros, etc, and the WEF.

    We tried to get rid of Governor in a recall in Ca , and I have no doubt it was rigged to keep that puppet in .
    Unreal and unbelievable, but all happening.

    1. We tried to get rid of Governor in a recall in Ca , and I have no doubt it was rigged to keep that puppet in .

       My vote was never counted.

    2. We tried to get rid of Governor in a recall in Ca , and I have no doubt it was rigged to keep that puppet in .

       It didn’t help that Larry Elder ran on an explicitly anti-mask and other COVID messaging that was deeply unpopular in California. If you won’t represent people, you will lose.

19. Todays big announcement. zuck was on rogan. say he is eliminating “fact checkers”

    https://thepostmillennial.com/mark-zuckerberg-removes-tampons-from-mens-bathrooms-at-meta-offices

    1. Closing the barn door long after the cow got out.

       1. But he swore they weren’t censoring anyone! Why would he need to eliminate the censorship apparatus?

          I’m sure he’s telling the truth this time, right?

          1. Maybe Zuck made an early confession to DJT, and agreed to identify the election steal conspirators inside the beltway after the Coronation?

20. Massive line ups for gas in LA County.
    With all these people now homeless because of the fire, I’m wondering how that will affect the functioning of the area.

    1. I’m wondering how that will affect the functioning of the area.

       As I mentioned above, business is gangbusters this week in places like Disneyland, Legoland, SeaWorld, etc. I’ll bet other activities like museums or even the beach are unseasonably busy.

    2. I’m wondering how it all affects property tax revenue and sales tax revenue. Seems to me that is one of the largest revenue generating areas of the city. Meanwhile costs just exploded and they were already doing budget cuts. I’m sure it’s fine.

21. Healey says she ordered criminal background checks on all shelter residents last spring, but they didn’t happen

    Gov. Maura Healey said Friday the state will conduct full criminal background checks on all emergency shelter residents, explaining she requested more thorough vetting months ago but the checks never happened.

    Briefing reporters, Healey said she issued an order last spring for Massachusetts Criminal Offender Record Information checks, or CORI checks, on all residents of the state’s shelter system. However, she said her team recently informed her “that that did not happen at all sites, and that’s absolutely unacceptable.”

    Healey added: “We’re going to get to the bottom of why that wasn’t happening.”

    Her administration’s handling of the shelter system has been under scrutiny, particularly following two high-profile incidents in the last year. In March, a man was accused of raping a 15-year-old girl at an emergency shelter housing migrants in Rockland. And last month, an undocumented immigrant was allegedly found with an assault rifle and fentanyl at a shelter in Revere.

    “I also plan to work with the Legislature to take a look at any changes and to make changes to better ensure that the right-to-shelter law actually aligns with its original intent,” Healey said, referring to the law that requires the state to provide shelter to homeless families and pregnant women.

    The right-to-shelter law, she argued, wasn’t meant to cover the “waves and waves of people” who have arrived in Massachusetts in recent years.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/healey-says-she-ordered-criminal-background-checks-on-all-shelter-residents-last-spring-but-they-didn-t-happen/ar-BB1rfJ01

    1. The right-to-shelter law, she argued, wasn’t meant to cover the “waves and waves of people” who have arrived in Massachusetts in recent years.

       You & your party invited them in, Maura.

       1. You & your party invited them in, Maura.

          Where was she expecting all to go? North Dakota?

          1. Not in my backyard.

22. Gov. Kelly Ayotte promises not to let New Hampshire turn into Massachusetts

    New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte may have been speaking to a Granite State crowd when she delivered her inaugural address Thursday, but she clearly had Massachusetts on her mind.

    Never one to pass up the opportunity to bash the Bay State, the Republican former U.S. senator labeled Massachusetts a “cautionary tale” during her remarks.

    “Look at the out-of-control spending, tax hikes, illegal immigrant crisis, people and businesses leaving in droves — what is normal today in Massachusetts wasn’t always this way,” Ayotte said.

    Lambasting Massachusetts’s model of “higher taxes and more government,” she vowed to woo businesses to New Hampshire with the state’s “commitment to taxpayers.”

    She also called on New Hampshire lawmakers to ban communities from passing so-called “sanctuary” policies, which generally limit local cooperation with federal immigration authorities.

    “We’ve got the Massachusetts illegal immigrant crisis right down the road if you want to see what these dangerous policies do not just to communities, but to the state budget,” Ayotte said. “They’ve spent over a billion dollars housing migrants rather than investing in their law-abiding residents. We can’t allow that to happen here.”

    Ayotte won election to the corner office in November, running on a “Don’t Mass it up” slogan.

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/gov-kelly-ayotte-promises-not-to-let-new-hampshire-turn-into-massachusetts/ar-BB1rfiJL

    1. Never one to pass up the opportunity to bash the Bay State,
       I spend some time in NH with NH natives. They “politely” refer to people from Mass as Massholes. I got to the point where I do the same thing.

       1. “I spend some time in NH with NH natives.”

          “Live Free or Die”

23. TogetherSF groups, Neighbors for a Better SF merge after election losses

    The billionaire-backed group TogetherSF Action announced Friday that it would merge with the closely aligned Neighbors for a Better San Francisco, another organization funded by wealthy figures, following disastrous election results in which TogetherSF Action’s heavily funded ballot measure tanked and its preferred mayoral candidate was soundly defeated.

    TogetherSF Action and its nonpolitical affiliate, TogetherSF, were co-founded and are run by CEO Kanishka Cheng, a former City Hall staffer, with backing from billionaire tech venture capitalist and co-founder Michael Moritz, of Sequoia Capital fame.

    Cheng is married to Jay Cheng, the executive director of Neighbors for a Better San Francisco.

    Cheng, who previously was a staffer for former Supervisor Mark Farrell and in the mayor’s office, said the TogetherSF groups had built a large community, in part by hosting events, distributing more than 250,000 voter guides, and conducting political education and issue advocacy campaigns, notably the “That’s Fentalife!” campaign, which featured satirical media messages highlighting The City’s fentanyl crisis.

    https://www.sfexaminer.com/news/politics/togethersf-merging-with-neighbors-after-ballot-measure-loss/article_2453164a-cfa3-11ef-9691-ebeb6fb691b7.html

24. Overdose deaths in Ontario increasingly involve more than one drug, new report says

    An increasing number of overdose deaths in Ontario involves the use of more than one drug, with the combination of opioids and stimulants proving to be especially dangerous, a new report says.

    Since the COVID-19 pandemic, attributing deaths to two or more substances rather than just one drug has become more common, new research from the Ontario Drug Policy Research Network and Public Health Ontario shows.

    From 2018 to 2022, the monthly rate of overdose deaths involving one substance increased by 75 per cent, deaths involving two substances increased by 167 per cent, while the rate of deaths involving three or more substances increased by 186 per cent, the report released Thursday says.

    The researchers found that 12,115 accidental overdose deaths across the province were directly attributed to opioids, stimulants, alcohol and benzodiazepines during that time frame.

    “Now, the most common situation is that opioids and stimulants together are contributing to death,” said Tara Gomes, an epidemiologist with Unity Health and investigator with the Ontario Drug Policy Research Network, and one of the report’s authors.

    “But we’ve also seen this increase in deaths where there are three or more substances involved – an opioid, a stimulant and a benzodiazepine or alcohol – and that has really complicated a number of things, including the fact that when people are overdosing from multiple substances it can be very hard to know how best to support them.”

    As fentanyl became more prominent it found its way into other drugs, tainting much of the drug supply – which also contributed to the stark rise in deaths, Gomes said.

    Benzodiazepines, which are depressants, also infiltrated the fentanyl supply in recent years and the two drugs act together to suppress breathing, which can easily lead to death.

    “We now have a situation where upwards of half of the opioid-related deaths that we see have some kind of benzodiazepine detected in them,” Gomes said.

    More than 2,600 Ontarians died from opioids in 2023, the latest annual data available from Ontario’s Office of the Chief Coroner.

    Ontario will soon undergo a fundamental shift in its approach to the ongoing opioid crisis. The province will close 10 supervised consumption sites by the end of March because they are too close to schools and daycares.

    It will move to an abstinence-based treatment model with plans to launch new “homelessness and addiction recovery treatment hubs” by April 1, plus create 375 highly supportive housing units at a cost of $378 million.

    https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/canada/overdose-deaths-in-ontario-increasingly-involve-more-than-one-drug-new-report-says/ar-BB1r93Ax

25. “The Sun Sentinel in Florida. “Christine Cordoso, a resident of the Sunrise Lakes Condominium, says her monthly maintenance fee is set to rise to $1,600 a month thanks to a new state law that requires full funding of reserves for repairs.”

    I wonder when the first condo whose owners have paid exorbitant sums of $ to have repairs done will collapse?

26. Trudeau stepping down comes at ‘really difficult time for Canada’, says Angus

    At a time when Canada needs a strong voice, Liberal infighting forced the prime minister to resign, says Timmins-James Bay MP Charlie Angus.

    “The decision actually comes at a really difficult time for Canada,” Angus told TimminsToday. “We’re facing an unprecedented level of menace from Washington, and this is a moment when we really need a strong voice and a strong position coming from Ottawa. But instead, we’ve been hit by this Liberal infighting, forcing the Prime Minister to resign.”

    “It’s going to be interesting to see what happens with the Liberals. Who’s going to step up? That’s their monkey and their circus to figure out for Canadians,” he said.

    https://www.sudbury.com/around-the-north/trudeau-stepping-down-comes-at-really-difficult-time-for-canada-says-angus-10040200

    From the comments:

    Trump is negotiating and gaslighting, cut with the panic, DT will negotiate with a strong Canadian leader, not with the cabal of misfits he has been presented with. He cares about his neighbor to the north and he is giving Canada a little tough love. Our economy is in shambles after this NDP/Liberal train wreck. JT’s pathetic resignation is beyond belief and serves only his needs. He realizes this is the best job he has ever or will ever have and it comes at Canadians expense.

    Monkeys and circuses.
    Ah, yes.
    A comparison that really strikes pride into the hearts of Canadians.

    He only left when it was convenient, he did zero for our country as a whole and left in shambles, thanks for letting down Canada for so many years.

    No amount of change will help the Liberals. Unfortunately, they have always been a party that does what they do best – spend spend and more spend. Sad thing is this leader was like a kid in a candy store. Canada is 61.9 billion in debt and I think this number might be underated with the way JT spent money. So the only thing Canadians can do is elect a party that will have no choice but to cut, cut and more cuts to try to salvage something. This always happens following the Liberal reign, but this time it is ridiculous. So get ready Canada we will have to do what we will have to do and tighten the belt so our great, great, great grandchildren will be able to breath. Shame on this party and the NDP for letting this get so messed up.

    Angus you and your party are just as much to blame for the state of our country. Stop talking. Every time you’re on TV we change the channel. You are not fooling anyone.

    I don’t believe Trudeau is a forceful negotiator, he’s a lightweight. Trump doesn’t attack Canada, and the media needs to stop saying his jokes are for real, and stop speculating as to what he means. And quite frankly, I have no problem with the idea of amalgamating with the United States.

27. Justin Trudeau leaves office under the darkest of clouds: epically bad approval ratings, a government that appears in civil war and an economy that is, in per capita terms, collapsing, beset as it is by a housing crisis, diminishing productivity growth and falling real incomes.

    Arguably, his biggest economic failures were the housing and immigration crises. The first was a sin of omission rather than commission – his government didn’t cause it, but it did little, if anything, to prevent it. There is plenty of blame to apportion when it comes to this generational failure: the Bank of Canada’s casual disregard for the effects of its loose monetary policy on asset prices, the entrenched power of NIMBYism in the country’s municipal politics, the strength of real estate lobbies in some provincial governments. On its own, the federal government couldn’t have solved all this. But it could have done much more than it did, including borrowing in the cheap-money days to boost the country’s housing stock. By the time the government finally got serious, it was far too late.

    As for the government’s misguided immigration policy, which overlapped with the housing crisis, this is arguably a case of the road to hell being paved with good intentions. The basic principle of providing a fast-track to permanent residency for foreigners pursuing tertiary studies in Canada is a good one – it’s a cheap way to keep Canada at the cutting edge of innovation. Unfortunately, its design flaws left it open to abuse, while the tactic of using it to supply cheap labour to the economy had little to commend it.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-was-it-really-the-economy-stupid-trudeaus-record-no-worse-than-other/

28. The Liberal caucus steps into a Trudeau-shaped hole in the universe

    There is a thing that happens if you’ve ever had someone in your close circle face a terminal illness. For months, then weeks and then the final days, every thought and question is about that person. Then one day, the end comes. And suddenly that person goes from being the subject of every sentence to the object. This is a bit like what just went on in Ottawa.

    Before you retch, it’s nothing as maudlin as Justin Trudeau being the dearly (or reviled) departed, or his resignation announcement on Monday marking the brave end of a long illness. (And if it was, he and his close cabal would surely deserve plenty of blame for contracting the political infection that brought him down.)

    What happened in Ottawa this week is that, with astonishing speed and completeness, everything stopped being about Mr. Trudeau – Why doesn’t he go? What will change his mind? What is he hearing from people? – and shifted in an instant to being all about filling the gap where Mr. Trudeau used to be.

    One day, you’re all anyone can talk about because whatever happens next is up to you. Then, you peel yourself off the page like a paper doll and walk away, and suddenly the whole political universe fits inside the empty outline where you used to be.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/opinion/article-the-liberal-caucus-steps-into-a-trudeau-shaped-hole-in-the-universe/

    1. with astonishing speed and completeness, everything stopped being about Mr. Trudeau

       This is going to happen for 47. Legacy media is going to be bereft.

29. Why right-wing influencers are blaming the California wildfires on diversity efforts

    Within a day of wildfires igniting in Los Angeles, right-wing media and influencers began blaming the scale of the destruction on efforts to reduce systemic social inequality, notably diversity, equity and inclusion policies.

    Billionaire Elon Musk helped circulate screenshots of the Los Angeles Fire Department’s four-year-old ‘racial equity action plan,’ writing “They prioritized DEI over saving lives and homes.”

    The city’s fire chief, a 22-year veteran firefighter, happens to be the first woman and openly gay person in that role. The chief, her fire department and the city government quickly became targets in right-wing media.

    The day-to-day work of helping make workplaces less discriminatory is incredibly mundane, according to Lily Zheng, who’s been a DEI consultant for about 10 years.

    “Something that’s often lost in these conversations is that DEI practitioners themselves have actually been critiquing DEI from within for decades,” said Zheng. “We’ve called attention to the 30 minute lunch-and-learns that aren’t going to solve racism overnight.”

    DEI efforts, Zheng says, are attempts to push the status quo towards meritocracy. But popular distortions about it, as well as Critical Race Theory, have been fueled by right-wing think tanks and influencers like Christopher Rufo, a senior fellow at the conservative Manhattan Institute.

    On his YouTube channel last year, Rufo laid out his strategy for how to attack university DEI programs.

    “What happens is that the left will say, ‘Well you’re opposing DEI, you don’t like diversity, you don’t like equity, you don’t like inclusion,'” Rufo said. “And you can say no, those are false words, those are Orwellian terms, what I really don’t like is using taxpayer money to fund left-wing racialist ideology that seeks to divide students into oppressor and oppressed and create separate standards of judgment based on where their ancestors came from.”

    https://www.boisestatepublicradio.org/2025-01-10/why-right-wing-influencers-are-blaming-the-california-wildfires-on-diversity-efforts

    1. those are Orwellian terms

       This! Time one billion.

       1. Boise, ID has become rainbow schitt hole.

30. Meta ends its DEI programs as Zuckerberg blasts Biden on Joe Rogan

    Meta is ending its diversity, equity and inclusion programs, known as DEI, the company said Friday, becoming the latest company to pull back from such practices in the wake of pressure from conservative critics and customers.

    Meta is eliminating the company’s DEI team, ending “equity and inclusion programs and changing hiring and supplier diversity practices,” according to a company memo obtained by CNN and sent to all global employees by Meta’s vice president of human resources, Janelle Gale.

    Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg appeared on the Joe Rogan podcast Friday and said he’d been working on the changes announced this week “for a long time.”

    “The whole point of social media is giving people the ability to share what they want. It goes back to, our original mission is just give people the power to share and make the world more open and connected,” Zuckerberg said.

    Zuckerberg said he’s been on a “journey” over the past decade, starting out “very pro-free speech, free expression,” but the 2016 victory of President Donald Trump and then pressure from the Biden administration to moderate COVID-19 misinformation on social media changed his view.

    “I kind of think in 2016 and the aftermath I gave too much deference to a lot of folks in the media who were basically saying ‘Okay, there was no way (Trump) could’ve gotten elected except for misinformation. People can’t actually believe this stuff,’” Zuckerberg said.

    Zuckerberg said fact checking and content moderation got to the point that it “destroyed trust” in the platform.

    At the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic, Zuckerberg said Meta was heavily pressured by the Biden administration to remove content the administration saw as misinformation on the platform.

    “Basically these people from the Biden administration would call up our team and like scream at them and curse, and it’s like, these are documented, it’s all kind of out there,” Zuckerberg said, adding that the administration tried to get Meta to remove a meme that suggested people who get the Covid-19 vaccine would end up being part of class action lawsuits.

    https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/meta-ends-its-dei-programs-as-zuckerberg-blasts-biden-on-joe-rogan-1.7171812

    1. “Meta is ending its diversity, equity and inclusion programs, known as DEI, the company said Friday, becoming the latest company to pull back from such practices in the wake of pressure from conservative critics and customers.”

       A great irony is that carrying out these programs, which were putatively implemented to end discrimination, could not be done without institutionalized discrimination.

    2. “Basically these people from the Biden administration would call up our team and like scream at them and curse, and it’s like, these are documented, it’s all kind of out there,” Zuckerberg said…

       Difficult to believe a multi-billionaire speaks this way.

       1. He’s a front.

          1. Many believe he is a “made man”

             1. DARPA rebranded LifeLog as Facebook.

31. One state handles it one way…

    L.A. Wildfires: National Guard Deployed To Stop Looting, Fight Blaze
    Dominic Patten

    Fri, January 10, 2025 at 2:59 AM EST

    Since starting on Tuesday, the Eaton Fire has charred almost 14,000 acres with 0% containment as of tonight. With the region now under a 6 p.m.-6 a.m. curfew for areas under mandatory evacuation orders, the 400 troops deployed will make a dedicated effort to clamp down on empty homes and businesses being robbed.

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/l-wildfires-national-guard-deployed-075925951.html

    One state handles it another way…

    Hurricane Andrew – A message reads “Looters will be shot on sight” on a wall

    Dade County, Fla., August 24, 1992 — Many houses, businesses and personal effects suffered extensive damage from one of the most destructive hurricanes ever recorded in America. One million people were evacuated and 54 died in this hurricane. FEMA News Photo (FEMA Photo by Bob Epstein/Released)

    https://www.dhs.gov/medialibrary/assets/images/32815

    DeSantis Puts Looters On Notice After Hurricane Ian

    2 years ago

    https://youtu.be/aFyXjge_gJs?si=QaXtVjmVH41VMxDA&t=23

32. Do you fear that recent massively overvalued stocks may portend a decade of negative returns ahead?

    1. US Markets Loading…
       Home
       Markets
       A notorious market bear who called the 2000 and 2008 crashes warns we’re in the ‘third great speculative bubble’ in the last 100 years — setting up the market for a decade of negative returns
       William Edwards
       Jan 11, 2025, 2:00 AM PST
       Wall Street trader September 2008
       REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

       – John Hussman warns of negative S&P 500 returns over the next decade.

       – Hussman’s analysis shows the market capitalization of nonfinancial stocks at all-time highs.

       – Hussman’s called the 2000 and 2008 bubbles, but his fund’s performance has been poor.

       John Hussman probably isn’t someone you want to take investment strategy advice from.

       The president of the Hussman Investment Trust is seemingly always bearish, even in enduring market rallies, and his Hussman Strategic Market Cycle Fund (HSGFX) is down 55% since December 2010.

       But Hussman does produce some interesting valuation analysis that’s frequently cited by investing legend and GMO cofounder Jeremy Grantham, and now may be a good time to take stock of where the market sits historically, and what that could mean for future returns.

       After all, the S&P 500 is coming off back-to-back years of at least 23% gains. Valuations have now climbed back to their 2021 peak levels. Inflation concerns are also rising as the economy remains strong, pushing up 10-year Treasury yields, which eventually tend to weigh on expensive equity markets.

       Earlier this week, Hussman published his latest monthly report and pointed out that his ratio of market capitalization of nonfinancial stocks to total gross value-added has hit all-time highs.

       Hussman deems the measure the most reliable for predicting 10-year subsequent returns. Like the Shiller CAPE ratio, it does provide a forecast of future returns.

       Here’s a chart from Hussman’s December note showing that relationship. Current levels put forecast annualized returns over the next decade at around -6%.

       “Our most reliable gauges of market valuation continue to trace out what I view as the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history — implying the most negative prospects for expected S&P 500 total returns on record,” Hussman wrote in the January 7 note — the 1929 and 2000 peaks being the other two speculative episodes.

       Hussman is not alone is his downbeat long-term outlook, though his forecasts are more dire than most. Goldman Sachs’ Chief US Equity Strategist David Kostin said last year that the S&P 500 would likely produce just 3% annualized returns over the next 10 years. Morgan Stanley CIO Mike Wilson said returns would be “flat-ish” over that time.

       Another way of looking at how extreme valuations are is considering them in context with 10-year Treasury yields. Investors can generate risk-free annualized returns of 4.76% right now. Meanwhile, as shown above, long-term return prospects are meager. By Hussman’s calculations, stocks will underperform 10-year Treasurys by 11% per year over the next decade. The last two instances where return prospects were this poor were in 1929 and 2000.

       “As always, you’ll see ‘errors’ in this chart, in this case reflecting valuation extremes at the endpoint of certain 12-year horizons. If we assume and rely on market valuations remaining at record extremes 12 years from today, we can also assume that actual equity returns in the coming 12 years, relative to bonds, may be better than our estimate below,” Hussman wrote, the emphasis his. “Still, even the largest ‘error’ in history would not push the resulting 12-year risk-premium above zero.”

       One thing to note regarding Hussman’s arguments is that they rely heavily on what has happened in the past, while this market cycle has proved that is not always a foolproof approach. For example, perfect recession indicators like The Conference Board’s Leading Economic Index, the inversion of the Treasury yield curve, and the Sahm Rule all seem to have been wrong this time around. Conditions change, and investor excitement around where artificial intelligence will take the market in the future may be right on track. Or, of course, we could get a repeat of something like the dot-com bubble.

       “The only way to get here, at the outer reaches of history, was to advance, undaunted, through every lesser extreme,” Hussman wrote. “My impression is that it will end badly, not just because current valuations assume favorable developments, but because they require outcomes that are at odds with history, economics, and financial arithmetic,” he added, the emphasis again his.
       …
       https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-bubble-sp500-long-term-outlook-valuations-hussman-2025-1

    2. Billionaire investor says Americans face ‘rude awakening’ if they follow Warren Buffett’s advice
       By ALICE WRIGHT FOR DAILYMAIL.COM
       12:38 11 Jan 2025, updated 12:50 11 Jan 2025

       A billionaire investor has claimed Americans are in for a ‘rude awakening’ if they follow one of Warren Buffett’s most popular pieces of advice.

       Buffett, one of the world’s most successful and well-respected investors, has long recommended that retail investors buy a low-fee S&P 500 tracker fund.

       This is an investment fund that tracks the performance of the S&P 500, delivering investors its exact gains or losses.

       The index has a storied history of gains, and rose over 20 percent in 2024, after gaining 24 percent in 2023.

       The back-to-back rallies gave the benchmark its best performance since the dot-com bubble in 1997 and 1998, according to data from FactSet.

       However, celebrity investor Chamath Palihapitiya has cautioned against Buffett’s advice, claiming that the main US market is now dominated by a handful of tech companies such as Amazon, Nvidia and Microsoft.

       The venture capitalist warned investors that when they buy the S&P 500 they are now essentially taking a bet on those risky tech businesses continuing to succeed.

       ‘This needs to be fixed or it will end in disaster,’ Palihapitiya wrote in an X post last week.
       …
       https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/billionaire-investor-says-americans-face-rude-awakening-if-they-follow-warren-buffett-s-advice/ar-BB1rhfyB

33. Incredible timelapse shows how quickly Palisades wildfires spread across Los Angeles

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/incredible-timelapse-shows-quickly-palisades-132001969.html

    1. What occurred to me while watching that time lapse is that spreading of a wildfire depends on the availability of fuel in the downwind path.

       And the readily available fuel downwind of the Palisades fire was all the structures between where the fire originated and where it met the sea. Many of those structures that provided fuel to the growing fire are now charred ruins.

34. [A long rant …]

    Richmond and Los Angeles Have Been Mugged By Reality.

    https://realclearwire.com/articles/2025/01/10/richmond_and_los_angeles_have_been_mugged_by_reality_1083652.html

    Windsor Farms is a beautiful residential neighborhood in Richmond. My great uncle developed it 100 years ago. The streets are laid out in the style of an English village and there are many stately Georgian homes with beautiful gardens.

    During the George Floyd “Summer of Love” antifa and Black Lives Matter marched through Windsor Farms, no doubt to protest against “nice stuff,” preferring everyone to live in graffiti ridden squalor as a measurement of social justice fairness. I wrote at the time that if any of these Georgian mansions were given to any of these neo-Marxist protestors, within 6 months all the windows in the house would be busted out, there would be broken glass and 3-foot-high grass in the front yard, and the mechanical systems would all be trashed. The same is true with a city. Give these types of people the keys to any city and in short order, the city, just like the free house, will be destroyed. They are incapable of taking care of anything.

    Here in Richmond, we just went through nearly 3 days with no municipal water. Now, we have to go through 2-3 days of not being allowed to drink the water coming from our taps. Several hundred thousand people in a major metropolitan area with hospitals, manufacturing plants, universities, nursing homes, and millions of square feet of office space had no water. It’s third world. Our race hustling, low IQ Marxist mayor hired a DEI candidate to run the Department of Utilities, the first time ever a non-engineer held that post. Her major initiative was hiring other DEI candidates to work for Public Utilities. Incompetent boobs, hire other incompetent boobs and before you know it, there are more boobs than the runway at the Bada-Bing.

    Los Angeles is burning down. The government incompetence there is extraordinary. LA has its own DEI problems. Its fire chief was hired because she is an outspoken lesbian. Her initiative has been to hire more women and LGBTQ firefighters. Yep, I want a 99 lb mentally ill woman who thinks she’s man pulling me out of a burning fire! Who wouldn’t?

    I’ve been known to be unabashedly blunt, but of course always right. DEI is the process of hiring simple minded knaves at the expense of competent and qualified artisans. Worse, it instills a sense of unearned entitlement in those who “Didn’t Earn It.” It is a cancer metastasizing through the ranks of work forces given grave responsibilities, and it spreads to the point where no one in an organization has the work ethic or skill to change a light bulb.

    As bad as DEI is, what’s worse is the political class that initiates DEI policies. There should never ever be any reason to vote anybody into office that has not had a career in real world practicalities. Community activists, academics, government apparatchiks, non-profit do-gooders, clinicians, blah, blah, they generally know nothing other than the au courant platitudes of the bougie Bolshevik chattering class. In Richmond, 8 of our 9 council members are women, and the one man is a soy boy. Have any of these folks ever crawled under a house to fix a leaky pipe, changed the oil in a car, operated earth moving equipment or walked a police officer’s beat at 2 am in the morning? Have any of them started a business from the ground up and hired and fired dozens of employees? No. Yesterday, I ran into my friend Frank. He runs a small independent HVAC company. Frank understands how things work. Cities need guys like Frank to run them as opposed to purple haired social justice Sallyboys.

    When I was fresh out of law school, my real estate mentor hired me to build a subdivision. I had to learn to read plans, to know how sanitary and storm sewer systems worked, where the run off went, how it was tested, where the water came from, fire hydrants, water pressure, gas pipe lines, underground power, soil compaction, emergency contingencies and a host of other real world matters that I likely never would have learned had I become a practicing lawyer or an academic. I’m not special, there are thousands of local people who know everything about these real-world issues. Yet, no one on our city council knows anything about such matters because they are political activists, academics or lifelong government hacks. They are talkers and not doers. Just about anybody I know who runs a business could have taken a tour of Richmond’s water treatment plant and immediately noticed the lack of emergency redundancies and the peril the city was in, but soft hands politicians can’t because they’ve never done anything in the practical world. There are no Franks.

    If It’s even possible to be more brain dead than the politicians running Richmond, the prize goes to California. Every advanced civilization from the ancient Minoans ( 2,000 BC) to modern times knows that to have an adequate water supply, communities need to impound water. I learned how to do this developing real estate. Every civil engineer and earth moving operator recognizes that to have a plentiful water supply, water must be captured and held in storage. But the political leadership in California doesn’t have a clue. California has plentiful and abundant water resources, but what does it do? It lets its water run off into the Pacific Ocean instead of impounding it. Now Los Angeles is burning to the ground. Fire hydrants have no water. There are more than enough resources to make millions of acres of barren land fertile and to give communities all the water they need to fight forest fires and keep land from drying out. But the deranged, brainwashed, wacko politicians refuse. It’s better to have half of LA destroyed than to “harm the environment” by using California’s natural resources to make its environment better. No Frank would ever think like this in a million years.

    If politicians were more like Frank they might know something about forestry. My family owned timberland as did many others I knew growing up. California owns a million acres of forest land, and they do the exact opposite of what all private owners do to be protect the value of their land. Any tobacco spitting, shotgun toting good ole boy knows what these government flunkies don’t. One has to cut fire roads through timberland. Good stewardship requires “thinning” of underbrush. Brush needs to be cleared under electrical lines and limbs need to be cut back from power lines. If not, you get forest fires.

    How in the world does the City of Richmond not know that crucial infrastructure needs a budgeted sinking fund for maintenance and that a water treatment plant needs multiple redundancies that need efficacy checks on a weekly basis? How is it that California does not know that it needs to impound water and manage its forest land? The astounding incompetence is mind blowing. Isn’t it high time to judge woke politicians not by their words, but by what they do? As Forrest Gump famously said, stupid is as stupid does.

    Frank doesn’t have a PHD in Gender Studies. He’s never participated in a pro-Palestinian rally. He doesn’t even drive an EV, but he’s a hell of a lot more capable of running a city than the flunkies running Richmond and California.

    1. ‘One has to cut fire roads through timberland. Good stewardship requires “thinning” of underbrush. Brush needs to be cleared under electrical lines and limbs need to be cut back from power lines’

       In the Ponderosa forest around Flagstaff AZ the forest service (or whoever is in charge) does a good job of this. They have fire roads and fire superhighways. The latter can be a football field across and run from horizon to horizon. That’s where they run the power-lines. And nothing but a little grass is allowed to live under those.

       Texas only has 3 natural lakes and they are tiny. There are probably thousands of reservoirs and millions of stock tanks. This is old technology. And Texas doesn’t get a lot of rain.

35. [Biden’s lips are moving hence he is lying. An article …]

    Biden says intentional power outages to prevent more fires led to California water shortages.

    President Biden on Thursday said intentional power outages administered in the Los Angeles area to prevent more fires from starting were partially to blame for water shortages as officials battle historic wildfires near the city’s limits.

    In a briefing with administration officials from the White House, Biden said generators were on the way and that he talked to California Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) about the water shortages. He explained that utilities were shut off out of concern about sparking more fires that are devastating neighborhoods in and around Southern California.

    “What I know from talking to the governor, there are concerns out there that there’s also been a water shortage. The fact is the utilities, understandably, shut off power because they are worried the lines that carried energy were going to be blown down and spark additional fires,” he said. “When it did that, it cut off the ability to generate pumping the water, that’s what caused the lack of water in these hydrants.”

    He added that Cal Fire, the California Department of Forestry and Fire Protection, is bringing in generators to help with the shortage of water coming out of the hydrants.

    President-elect Trump has criticized the water shortage in statements on Truth Social, saying earlier Thursday that Newsom “should immediately go to Northern California and open up the water main, and let the water flow into his dry, starving, burning State, instead of having it go out into the Pacific Ocean.”

    Trump has also blamed Newsom for the fires, calling for him to resign late Wednesday. Newsom hit back, saying he was doing everything he could to protect people and make sure firefighters have what they need and that Trump wants to “politicize” the fires.

    Trump also said the California governor should have signed a declaration to pump additional water through the Golden State to avert a situation like this week’s. But it’s unclear just what declaration Trump was referring to.

    The quantity of water available to be pumped from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta faces restrictions due to federal and state regulations to protect a fish called the smelt, in spite of Trump’s first administration stating in 2019 that pumping more water to supply farms won’t endanger the fish, according to reporting from Cal Matters at the time.

    [Here are some of the comments (so far there are over 3,100 of them) …]

    At my water district, every pump station has a backup generator. That is standard operating procedure for water, districts, especially in California.

    I work in this field of water, sewer and pumps. Biden is full of it.

    Why weren’t there generators there before? It seems like this should be planned out way better, poor leadership and poor planning. Running out of water pressure during an emergency that needs water is inexcusable. Data centers have backup power, why not a critical utility?

    I work for county government in Los Angeles County, recently our chief executive stated, “we should be proud, we have the most diverse executive cabinet we’ve ever had.” Nothing wrong with diversity, but I would’ve preferred my chief executive officer to say, “we should be proud, we have the most highly qualified executive cabinet we’ve ever had.” Welcome to Los Angeles…it’s all about looks and appearances rather than one’s qualifications.

    Newsom, help me understand the logic. Last year, we had record rainfall in California. How much of the rain runoff did we capture in the new reservoirs that we built. That’s right, none, because new reservoirs weren’t built. However, we spent countless billions on a bullet train from Bakersfield to Sacramento? Oh, I forgot, that train still hasn’t been built; only a small piece has and that’s in the central valley, in the middle of nowhere. Where are your priorities? We cry about droughts and water shortages. When we’re blessed with record rains, we let it runoff back into the ocean. We pumped billions into a ghost of a bullet train and you’re still wanting to pump more? Countless millions of tax payer dollars on homelessness, but no results and the money can’t be tracked or isn’t accounted for? Only your cronies’ “non-profit” companies are making money. How about taking care of your priorities, like the taxpaying people of this great State? How about prioritizing safety over some unnecessary bullet train? Wake up people, we are electing uselessness and it’s ruining our State.

    That does not sound believable at all. How often have you lost power in your area? How many times did these power outages coincide with nothing coming out of your water faucets? The answer would be never unless you are on a private well system. Water municipalities have back up generators so things like that don’t happen, at least in first world countries.

    How on earth can anyone justify not having emergency backup generators for water supply systems? This level of negligence is criminal. What excuse can Newsom, or for that matter, any elected official with even the most minimal authority over public safety, have for not ensuring water systems can operate in emergencies? I certainly hope the reason isn’t that emergency generators burn diesel.

    There must be criminal prosecutions that come out of this. At last count, seven are confirmed dead and thousands of structures are burned to the ground.

    1. Link …

       https://www.yahoo.com/news/biden-says-intentional-power-outages-223155066.html

36. [This is a long post. I suggest accessing the link because there are a lot of pictures and other things you will miss out on otherwise.]

    Has Karen Bass become LA’s most hated woman? Tears turn to anger as mayor is blasted by her own fire chief for $17m funding cut – while Khloe Kardashian begins war of words and Spencer Pratt says he’ll SUE.

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14273495/la-fires-mayor-failed-fire-chief-blasts-karren-bass-funding-cut.html

    A Los Angeles fire chief has blasted the city’s mayor Karen Bass for ‘failing’ fire crews and communities devastated by the ongoing wildfires.

    Fire Chief Kirstin Crowley took aim at the city’s leadership during an interview with KTTV on Friday, admitting it had failed those affected by the fires and prevented the LA Fire Department from effectively doing its job.

    ‘We are screaming to be properly funded to make sure that our firefighters can do their jobs so that we can serve the community,’ Crowley said, adding that there were ‘huge gaps’ in firefighters’ ability to tackle the blazes on the ground.

    She joins a chorus of high profile celebrities who have hit out at the city’s handling of the ongoing wildfires, which have so far killed 11 people, ravaged communities, and sent thousands of people frantically fleeing their properties.

    This includes reality star Khloe Kardashian, who rallied around Crowley to share her furious response at the mayor’s decision to cut around $17.5 million from the fire department budget for this fiscal year.

    During an interview with Gigi Graciette, Crowley stated that the mayor’s budget cuts for the LAFD affected the fire fight throughout Southern California, adding that the department was ‘not properly funded’.

    Reacting to her statement on Instagram, Khloe said she ‘stood behind’ the fire chief before dubbing Mayor Bass a ‘joke’.

    Mayor Bass has also been cricitised for flying out to attend a presidential inauguration in Ghana even though meteorologists had warned a ‘recipe for fire’ was on track to strike LA.

    Meanwhile, on Friday former reality star Spencer Pratt announced that he intends to file a lawsuit against California for its alleged negligence after his home was tragically burnt down in the Pacific Palisades fire.

    While speaking to blogger, Perez Hilton, the father-of-two recalled desperately trying to get help from Los Angeles Fire Department as he watched his property go up in flames.

    ‘They never came. The gate was still locked,’ he claimed. ‘They never came. I watched from my security cameras until our house burned down. There were no fire trucks.’

    As his home burned down, Pratt insisted that he called 911 and informed them that if they sent ‘one fire truck’ to his street that they ‘could stop [the fire from] coming down the whole freaking area.’

    In response to his suggestion to bring in a truck, he said he was told that the fire department didn’t ‘have the assets.’

    The couple’s home, reportedly worth $3 million, was flattened to the ground, and photos obtained by DailyMail.com on Wednesday showed the severity of the devastation.

    Elsewhere, Khloe and her family have all evacuated their Hidden Hills and Calabasas mansions where the Kenneth Fire is continuing to rage on.

    The fast-moving inferno threatened to rip through the desirable neighborhoods – with the famous family all living just six miles from one another.

    Shortly after the news of her evacuation was revealed, the 40-year-old posted a furious response to the Mayor’s handling of the crisis.

    In a caption added over a recording of an interview of Chief Crowley – in which she said the mayor’s budget cuts affected the LAFD’s firefighting ability – Khloe wrote: ‘I stand with YOU Chief Crowley!!!!’

    ‘You spoke the truth and you had tears in your eyes because I can tell you didn’t want to say that but it was THE TRUTH!!!!’

    Khloe also typed, ‘Thank you for being honest @losangelesfiredepartment Chief Crowley. Mayor Bass you are a joke!!!!’

    On Friday, Khloe also shared a lengthy message to the first responders, fire fighters as well as the Chief of the Fire Department.

    She expressed her ‘deepest gratitude and admiration for all of you who have been working tirelessly over the past few days to combat the fires in California.’

    ‘Your courage, dedication and selflessness in the face of such immense danger are truly inspiring. The work you do is nothing short of heroic….’

    Other celebrities have also joined the reality star in criticizing the L.A. mayor over the mismanagement of the deadly blazes – which include the Palisades Fire and Eaton Fire.

    Actress Sarah Michelle Gellar wrote on Instagram: ‘City of LA you want everyone to evacuate yet you have complete gridlock and not one traffic cop on the roads helping.’

    Sara Foster also shared: ‘We pay the highest taxes in California. Our fire hydrants were empty.’

    ‘Our vegetation was overgrown, brush not cleared. Our reservoirs were emptied by our governor because tribal leaders wanted to save fish.’

    She then called for Bass to resign by adding, ‘Our fire department budget was cut by our mayor. But thank god drug addicts are getting their drug kits. RESIGN. Your far left policies have ruined our state. And also our party.’

    James Woods – whose home was spared in the Palisades fire – also slammed Bass on social media.

    Actor Dennis Quaid also spoke about the mishandling of the LA fires as he shared that he had returned to his home after having had to evacuate.

    Speaking to Fox News in an interview today, he said: ‘It’s an inherent problem in California.’

    ‘[There is] no water in the Palisades… the infrastructure has been a big problem around here – and where we should spend the money… I do have a difference with that.

    ‘The mayor coming back, I’m sure she got on the first plane coming back but having nothing to say once she got here…you got to hit the ground running around here.’

    Across the pond, Pope Francis has been praying for victims and rescuers trying to control the wildfires, the Vatican said on Saturday.

    ‘His Holiness Pope Francis assures you and the community affected by this tragedy of his spiritual closeness,’ said a statement sent on the pope’s behalf to the Archbishop of Los Angeles, Jose H. Gomez.

    Expressing ‘heartfelt condolences for those who mourn their loss,’ Francis also offered prayers ‘for the relief efforts of emergency services personnel’ and imparted ‘his blessing to all as a pledge of consolation and strength in the Lord.’

    Since the fire broke out in Pacific Palisades, new fires have started further east in Altadena, which forced major evacuations in nearby Pasadena on Tuesday night.

    More fires broke out in the Hollywood hills on Wednesday, threatening heavily populated parts of Hollywood.

    Stars including Adam Brody and Leighton Meester whose home was destroyed, along with Anna Faris’ mansion.

    John Goodman and Anthony Hopkins were left with nothing but rubble after their homes burned, and Billy Crystal and Eugene Levy also lost their houses.

37. Chinese property market shows no sign of bottoming out.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-10/chinese-developers-begin-new-year-with-deepening-debt-woes

38. Wow so close to a major catastrophe

    E-Bike Explosion on Toronto Subway: Interview with Deputy Chief Larry Cocco.
    E-bike batteries are substantial. They can’t be treated like mobile phone or laptop batteries. That train car was filled with deadly gasses in an instant.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JcUO-5gg4OU

    1. Stored electrical energy is dangerous.

       1. Exothermic chemical potential…enjoy!

39. Do not panic. Do not adjust your television set. Fartcoin tested a key support level at $0.7187 today. Tested.

    It is now safely trading back at $0.8325. You missed the boat not buying this dip. We tried to warn you…

    1. And in case you forgot, it NEVER stops trading. 24/7/365. On with the show, indeed. If you look at CNBC on a browser not a phone, you can see DOGE listed in 4th place from the “top” ranking.

       This is the “financial press” the Real Journalists in the 2025

       https://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/fartcoin/

40. Are home prices plunging in your area?

    1. Home prices are falling fast in these 10 expensive and popular cities
       By Snejana Farberov
       Published Jan. 10, 2025, 6:44 p.m. ET

       The residential real estate market is slowly shaking off the cobwebs of a sluggish year of buying and selling, and quick-thinking homebuyers stand a good chance of snapping up a property at a lower price than in 2024—if they know where to look.

       In more than half of the 50 largest U.S. metros, median list prices have plunged year over year—with San Francisco leading the way with a 10.87% decrease, according to the Realtor.com® December Housing Market Report.
       …
       https://nypost.com/2025/01/10/real-estate/home-prices-are-falling-fast-in-these-10-expensive-and-popular-cities/

       1. “In more than half of the 50 largest U.S. metros, median list prices have plunged year over year”

          I must not have been paying close attention recently. Did you folks already know that median list prices are CR8Ring in over 25 of the largest U.S. metros?

          CR8R

41. ‘The scope of the project was $250,000, and that meant basically raiding retirement money’…‘You are chained to a worthless home’

    Yer definitely fooked fer sure Jeff, but it was still way cheaper than renting.

42. ‘her monthly maintenance fee is set to rise to $1,600 a month thanks to a new state law that requires full funding of reserves for repairs. That’s in addition to her bill for taxes and insurance for her Phase IV condo unit, she said. ‘We take very good care of our building. We’re on fixed incomes’

    We’re all on fixed incomes in one way or another Chris. Yer point is?

43. ‘This is a normalized market,’ Wolf told Western Investor. ‘Everyone keeps calling it a down market, but it’s very normal for property to be on the market six or nine months, even longer’

    Yer right Joan, they are getting spooked. Calm em down, don’t give it away!

44. ‘has entered administration with all members of staff losing their jobs. Connect Modular Ltd, which is part of the Wee House Group, based in Cumnock has collapsed with a total of 48 members of staff made redundant across the company…the firms had made losses on a number of historic contracts and the business faced ‘unsustainable pressure’…‘Unfortunately, following losses made on a number of historic contracts and rising operational costs, the businesses were facing significant cash flow pressure. Despite the best efforts of the director in exploring alternatives in recent weeks, the cash position deteriorated significantly placing unsustainable pressure on the business’

    That may be Michelle, but East Ayrshire is still a red hotcakes sellers market.

45. Is Uncle Warren Wall Street’s insurer of last resort?

    1. Yahoo Finance
       Motley Fool
       Is Warren Buffett Preparing to Save Wall Street From Itself? History Shows What the Billionaire Legend Could Be Doing With His Record $325 Billion in Cash.
       Johnny Rice, The Motley Fool
       Sat, January 11, 2025 at 8:23 AM PST 5 min read

       Theories abound as to why Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway is currently sitting on the largest pile of cash in its long and storied history. Over the past year, the “Oracle of Omaha” has overseen his company’s large-scale reduction of several key positions including those in Bank of America and Apple.

       The company’s sales of equities through the first nine months of 2024 total $133 billion. Buffett and his team have amassed a cash reserve of $325 billion. That is a lot of money to have on the sidelines — more than Berkshire has ever had — and comes at a time when markets are hitting historic highs. What is Buffett planning to do with all this cash?

       Buffett’s past actions may hold the answer.

       Buffett has a history of saving the day

       In the aftermath of the Great Recession, Buffett was instrumental in keeping several major companies afloat. To be sure, this wasn’t simply out of the goodness of his heart; he made strategic investments that enriched Berkshire’s shareholders. Nonetheless, they were critical to each company’s recovery. The investments included:

       – Goldman Sachs: The investment bank that played a key role in the lead-up to 2008 received $5 billion from Berkshire in September of that year. This provided Berkshire with preferred shares that carried a 10% yield and warrants to purchase stock at $115 a share. Berkshire ended up netting roughly $3.7 billion in about two years.

       – Bank of America: Although Buffett sold out of much of his position this year, Bank of America has remained one of Berkshire’s top positions since it invested $5 billion in the bank in 2011. Bank of America was still struggling in the wake of the Great Recession. Like the Goldman deal, the preferred stock paid a hefty yield and came with warrants to buy the stock at what would be bargain-bin prices. When Buffett exercised the warrants in 2017, he netted his company an on-paper profit of $12 billion.

       – General Electric: GE no longer exists as a single conglomerate, having spun off into three separate companies last year, but the industrial giant had become heavily involved in financial services in the years before the crash. As it rebuilt in the aftermath, Buffett stepped in with a $3 billion cash infusion. Again Berkshire was rewarded with interest-bearing preferred stock and warrants to buy more. All told, the investment brought in $1.5 billion in profit in nine years.

       Buffett had a lot to say in his last letter

       Buffett’s actions during the last “financial conflagration” — his term for major economic turmoil — clearly show he isn’t afraid to step in when times are tough to provide firm-saving investments, so long as it makes sense for Berkshire as well.

       It’s not just his actions, however. In his 2023 letter to shareholders, Buffett makes it clear that he sees Berkshire as a sort of insurer for America’s economy, ready to step in when it’s needed.
       …
       https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffett-preparing-save-wall-162300746.html

       1. “financial conflagration”

          Red flag warning!

          1. Investing
             As Bond Yields Surge Higher, Could the Stock Market Crash? What to Do Right Now
             Market Crash
             Canva | golubovy from Getty Images and IncrediVFX from Getty Images
             Lee Jackson
             Published: January 10, 2025 1:14 pm
             Last Updated: January 10, 2025 1:56 pm

             The “buy the dip” financial news teleprompter readers and the 30-year-old portfolio managers who have never seen a market crash are pounding the table that stocks are going to the moon. Market veterans and “Hey Boomer” professionals have seen this show before. In 1987, the Dow Jones industrial average plunged a stunning 22% in one day. Today, an equivalent drop in the venerable index would be almost 9,380 points.
             …
             https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/01/10/as-bond-yields-surge-higher-could-the-stock-market-crash-what-to-do-right-now/

             1. ‘“Hey Boomer” professionals…’

                That’s me. I started working full-time in financial services in March 1987, and the following October I had a front row seat to the Black Monday crash.

                That was also when I first became aware of the Fed’s bailout procedures, known back then as the “Greenspan put.” Those who didn’t dump shares after the crash came out just fine.

46. Is it really a case of “5,870 or fight” for the S&P 500?

    These supposed resistance levels the bulls believe in make no sense to me whatever. Your prices are overvalued, and soon heading for the CR8R. It really is that simple.

    1. MarketWatch
       Options
       Lawrence G. McMillan
       Opinion: The stock market has one more chance to fight off the bears
       Last Updated: Jan. 11, 2025 at 5:33 a.m. ET
       First Published: Jan. 10, 2025 at 5:13 p.m. ET
       By Lawrence G. McMillan
       Another S&P 500 close below 5,870 would signal more downside for the index. Plus, Amazon looks weak.

       The S&P 500 index SPX had been locked into a trading range between 5,870 and 6,100. A close below 5,870 over two consecutive trading days would usher in a period of bearishness. That leaves one trading day for the S&P 500 to keep the bears in hibernation, after closing at 5,827 on Jan. 10.

       There is support below 5,870 — at 5,670 and 5,780 — but the chart would no longer be bullish if the index fell that far.

       Equity-only put-call ratios continue to rise, with the weighted advancing more swiftly than the standard. As long as these ratios are rising, it is bearish for stocks. The weighted ratio is now above all of the “clutter” that occurred in a generally sideways movement last October and November. The standard ratio has not risen far enough yet to clear the similar hurdle on its chart.

       Market breadth has generally been poor since early November. It made an attempt to improve about a week ago, and in fact, the breadth oscillators rolled over to buy signals. But this is our shortest-term indicator and thus the most subject to whipsaws. In the last two days breadth has been poor again, and those new buy signals are in jeopardy. On a more positive note, when SPX had a strong up day on Jan. 6, cumulative volume breadth (CVB) set an all-time high. That is normally a sign that SPX will follow along and do the same in a fairly short time.

       New lows on the NYSE have continue to outnumber new highs, except for one day. So this indicator is in bearish territory and on a sell signal. That sell signal would be stopped out if new highs were to outnumber new lows for two consecutive days on the NYSE.

       The realized volatility sell signal is still in place as well. That is, the 20-day historical volatility of SPX (HV20) remains elevated at 16%, and that is bearish for stocks as long as it continues to rise.

       There was a recent attempt to generate a trend of VIX VIX buy signal. That occurred when VIX fell back below its 200-day moving average (MA). However, it was stopped out as VIX rose back up again. This is shown in the box on the lower right of the VIX chart. Now the 20-day MA of VIX is back above the 200-day, so technically this is a trend of VIX sell signal. That is, when both VIX and its 20-day moving average are above the 200-day moving average of VIX, then VIX is trending higher, and that is negative for stocks.

       The construct of volatility derivatives has remained bullish throughout, as the term structures of VIX futures have continued to slope upwards. The first sign of concern would be if the front-month January VIX futures began to trade at a higher price than the February VIX futures contract.

       We had been maintaining a core bullish (out-of-the-money) position as long as SPX closed above 5,870. We will trade other confirmed signals around that, and we urge the taking of partial profits by rolling deeply in-the-money options.
       …
       https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-stock-market-has-one-more-chance-to-fight-off-the-bears-9fe71f8e

47. MarketWatch
    Dow sees worst start to a year since 2016 as Fed rate-cut hopes fade for 2025
    Last Updated: Jan. 11, 2025 at 5:09 a.m. ET
    First Published: Jan. 10, 2025 at 7:31 p.m. ET
    By Christine Idzelis
    U.S. stocks sold off sharply Friday

    U.S. stocks are struggling in 2025, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average off to its worst start to a year since 2016, as markets on Friday reflected a greater chance of the Federal Reserve pausing interest-rate cuts at least until May.

    The Dow DJIA dropped almost 700 points Friday, booking a back-to-back weekly decline that left it down 1.4% so far in January. That marked the index’s worst performance over the first six trading days of a year since 2016, when it slumped 5.9%, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    Equities broadly fell under pressure Friday after a hotter-than-forecast jobs report sparked a jump in Treasury yields. The report — which showed the U.S. economy added more jobs in December than Wall Street expected and a decline in the unemployment rate — spurred traders in the federal-funds futures market to price in a greater probability that the Fed will maintain its benchmark rate at the current level at its next two policy meetings in January and March.

    “The fact that employment is going so strong despite rates where they are will continue to fuel talk of higher neutral rates,” said Neil Dutta, head of economic research at Renaissance Macro Research, in a note Friday. “Markets are responding in kind with a broad tightening of financial-market conditions — rates up, dollar up, stocks down — and now seeing just one rate cut in 2025.”

    All three major U.S. stock indexes closed sharply lower Friday, with the Dow and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite COMP each dropping 1.6% and the S&P 500 SPX slumping 1.5%.

    The S&P 500 saw nearly all its sectors end in the red on Friday, with the index’s year-to-date loss of 0.9% marking its worst performance over the first six trading days of a year since 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The selloff has hammered the S&P 500’s rate-sensitive real-estate sector XX:SP500.60, which saw a 2.5% drop Friday that deepened its loss so far this year to 3.8%.

    Rates in the bond market climbed Friday, with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note BX:TMUBMUSD10Y
    jumping to 4.772%, its highest level since Nov. 1, 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data.

    While the U.S. jobs report released on Friday is positive from an economic standpoint, the employment data “solidified” the notion that, at least in near term, the Fed won’t be cutting rates, said Kevin Gordon, senior investment strategist at Charles Schwab, in a phone interview.

    Traders in the fed-funds futures market on Friday priced in a near-certain probability that the Fed will decide at its policy meeting in late January to keep its benchmark rate at the current target range of 4.25% to 4.5%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Fed-funds futures reflected a roughly 75% chance that the Fed will remain on pause in March, up from a 59% probability priced Friday morning before the U.S. jobs report was released.

    After the stock market’s close on Friday, the CME data indicated fed-funds-futures traders saw a 55.6% chance that the Fed could cut its policy rate by a quarter of a percentage point in May.

    Despite Friday’s stock-market slump, “as long as the Fed is on hold because the economy stays together and the labor market is resilient, I think that’s a good thing for risk assets,” said Gordon.

    Friday’s employment report showed the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs in December, while the unemployment rate fell slightly to 4.1%.

    Negative market reaction driven by inflation concerns may have been “a little bit overdone” on Friday, as the employment report showed wage growth slowed slightly in December, according to Gordon.

    But he cautioned that if inflation readings next week turn out to be hotter than expected, there’s more risk of a “protracted drawdown” in the U.S. stock market.
    …
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/dow-sees-worst-start-to-a-year-since-2016-as-fed-rate-cut-hopes-fade-for-2025-e18be245

48. Money
    Mortgage Predictions for January 2025: Is the Worst Yet to Come?
    Trump’s inauguration, a Fed meeting and economic uncertainty have the potential to rattle the housing market.
    Headshot of Katherine Watt
    Katherine Watt
    Jan. 12, 2025 3:00 a.m. PT
    …
    https://www.cnet.com/personal-finance/mortgage-predictions-for-january-2025-is-the-worst-yet-to-come/

49. Trump is partying like a rock star.

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