The Ones Who Have To Sell Are At The Mercy Of The Marketplace
A report from Fortune. “Sales of existing homes last year hit the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Yep, the annual pace of U.S. existing home sales hasn’t been this soft since Microsoft launched Windows 95. Would you want to swap a sub-5% mortgage for a rate closer to 7%? That’s where the average 30-year mortgage rate has been stuck for months. ‘We’re in that trap ourselves,’ says California-based real estate agent Victor Currie. ‘Our mortgage is under 2%, and it’s hard to justify giving that up until we decide to downsize or leave California and use the built-up equity to buy the next property in cash.'”
Market Watch. “The number of newly built homes for sale on the market is at the highest level since 2009. Home builders are having a hard time finding buyers, and they’re upping discounts and perks in an attempt to sell more. Even with unusually high inventory levels of newly-built homes, a boon to the residential real-estate market as resale homes are in short supply, few are buying. Builders acknowledge that high home prices are a pain point for buyers. Lennar, one of the biggest builders, recently said it would look to lower prices — a strategy that is anathema to the industry — to move inventory. About 30% of builders cut home prices in January, the National Association of Home Builders reported based on a survey. The average price reduction was 5%. But with swollen inventory levels and the resale market seeing listings rise, sales incentives may not be enough this year. Inventory of resale homes was up 16.2% from a year ago, offering buyers more options.”
The Columbus Dispatch in Ohio. “Julie Wolfe and her wife, Katie, found another way to avoid a 7% rate when they were looking for an upgrade from their 1,800-square-foot Dublin home. The couple didn’t find quite what they wanted and were leaning toward building a home when they discovered that Pulte Homes was ready to sell its model in a Powell community for $840,000. ‘Nothing compared to this house. All we had to do was wait a few months for Pulte to move,’ Julie said. As an added bonus, Pulte, like many homebuilders, offers discounted mortgage rates, allowing the couple to lock in at 5.5%. ‘We hadn’t had a mortgage in several years,’ Julie said. ‘We thought, ‘We don’t want to pay 7 or 8%.'”
The Assembly. “Hospitality is more than a job for Lindsay Levine: It’s a vocation. The Woodfin resident has spent two decades in the industry, now as a server at the upscale Edison sports bar in Asheville’s Omni Grove Park Inn. When she and her husband, Jay Levine, himself a 30-year industry veteran, decided to move to Western North Carolina in 2017. The two built a new house with a walkout basement unit that they operated as a short-term rental through Airbnb. Hurricane Helene’s arrival in late September threw that future into doubt. Several thousand dollars in fall bookings canceled within days of the storm. At the same time, the Grove Park Inn and many other hospitality businesses closed their doors for weeks. ‘We got a double whammy with the loss of income,’ Lindsay Levine said.”
“Stories like the Levines’ have been playing out for short-term rental operators across Western North Carolina. AirDNA, a rental industry data firm, estimates that 85,000 short-term rental room nights in Asheville were canceled in the first three weeks of October alone, up sevenfold from the area’s usual cancellation rate. Those projections line up with the experiences of Chip Craig. The owner of Greybeard Realty, the region’s largest manager of short-term rentals, he oversees roughly 240 properties across Western North Carolina. His company’s October bookings were down 84 percent compared with 2023; January remained 40 percent below last year’s benchmark. ‘It’s going to be a long haul,’ he said.”
“Many Greybeard clients, said Craig, plan on retiring to their vacation homes and rely on the rental income for now to pay off their mortgages. Others, like West Asheville resident Brooke Hendrickson, count on their rentals to make ends meet while living in one of North Carolina’s most expensive cities. ‘You have to cobble a lot of things together to make it work here, and when one of those things gets knocked out of the equation, it just puts so much more pressure on those other income sources,’ said Hendrickson, who also has gigs as a health insurance agent and writer. She estimated that a third of her household’s income normally comes from the short-term rental; in the months since the storm, that revenue has decreased by at least half.”
From WEAR News. “Florida realtors are sounding the alarm on a growing issue: condo sales. A new report from the Florida Realtors Association finds condo sales in the state had their worst decline in 15 years. A realtor tells WEAR News it’s the high prices that are steering buyers in another direction. Joshua Scott, known around the coast as the ‘crazy suit realtor’, said ‘I’ve seen a special assessment range from $1,000 to $150,000 for owners of the complex. When you run into that, you have more people who need to sell their units because they don’t have $150,000 in their savings account.’ In December, a WEAR News sister station in West Palm Beach reported some condo owners were subjected to a $3,000 monthly rate hike after an inspection found the property was in need of repairs.”
Bradenton Herald in Florida. “It was cheaper to buy a house in Manatee County in 2024 compared to 2023, a report said. Sarasota County single-family median sale prices fell $10,000 to $505,000 in 2024. The monthly supply of inventory increased 25% year-over-year to 5.5 months. Sarasota County townhome and condo closed sales fell 19.5% in December year-over-year. The median sale price dropped 18.1% to $384,250. The monthly supply increased from 5.2 months to 6.9 months.”
The Los Angeles Times. “Shovel in hand, Hendrena Martin dug through the ruins of the home her father had built more than 60 years ago, searching for any surviving link to the past. But how, she wondered, could she afford to rebuild? ‘How can a whole city just go up in flames in one night, and you lose everything that you struggled to hold on to?’ said Martin, 64. Martin’s annual insurance premium under the California FAIR Plan more than doubled last year to nearly $1,700. But even with that payment, she learned after the fire that her property was underinsured: what she qualifies for as reimbursement is far less than what it will take to rebuild.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Some Toronto-area condo sellers are starting the year at a brisk pace as they weigh the benefit of hammering out a deal now against the prospect of a spring rebound that is far from guaranteed. Christopher Bibby, broker with Re/Max Hallmark Bibby Group Realty, sold a handful of condo units in the first three weeks of January. But looking farther into the spring, Mr. Bibby cautions that one question is looming: ‘My concern is, how much supply is coming?'”
“Mr. Bibby has noticed a change in mood from potential sellers who have called him in 2025: most have come to terms with the shift to a more balanced market from the strong seller’s market that prevailed for many years. ‘There seems to be an appetite to get the deal done,’ he said. In December, Mr. Bibby notes, many sellers in the condo segment cancelled their listings after failing to find a buyer, yet data show inventory was still 33 per cent higher than in December, 2023. This dynamic concerns him, because the recent spurt of buying could be swamped by new supply in the coming weeks. ‘We’ve had all these units come off and we’re still up 33 per cent. Where did these units disappear to and when do they come back on?'”
“Many sellers are feeling the same unease, he senses, but they are reacting by tying up a sale more quickly.
Sellers are being a lot more reasonable so far this year, he says. Some are agreeing to offers 1 or 2 per cent below what they were hoping for. They are weighing the risks of waiting for a stronger price versus accepting the one on the table. ‘No sellers think the market’s going to be up significantly in the next few months because of all the uncertainty.’ Another group feels pressure to sell for financial reasons. Those who purchased during the market mania of 2021 and 2022 will likely only break even or sell at a loss, he says. ‘The ones who have to sell are at the mercy of the marketplace.'”
From Econostrum. “The Australian housing market is showing signs of a significant shift, with home values slipping in key cities and buyers regaining leverage. Sydney, Melbourne, and now Brisbane are seeing declines in property prices, as rising stock levels and weakening demand tip the balance in favor of buyers. While seasonal trends usually dictate a slow start to the year, CoreLogic’s Eliza Owen warns that this downturn runs deeper. ‘There’s less appetite from buyers, but more sellers are coming into the market, which could indicate rising mortgage stress,’ Owen said. With interest rates remaining high and signs of a loosening labor market, more sellers may be forced to drop asking prices to secure deals.”
“Buyer’s agent Zoran Solano sees the shift as a win for buyers, noting that many sellers are struggling to meet price expectations. ‘For me as a buyer’s agent, it’s a positive sign that the power has shifted back a little bit towards buyers.’ AMP chief economist Shane Oliver predicts that Brisbane could be next in line for price declines, following Sydney and Melbourne’s trajectory. ‘Brisbane looks to me like a really soggy market, and I wouldn’t be surprised if house prices go negative in the next couple of months.'”
This Post Has 109 Comments
Realtors are liars.
‘We’re in that trap ourselves,’ says California-based real estate agent Victor Currie. ‘Our mortgage is under 2%, and it’s hard to justify giving that up until we decide to downsize or leave California and use the built-up equity to buy the next property in cash’
Again, loanowners are broke a$$ losers. They don’t work to make money for a shack. It has to go to the moon Alice! or else they are fooked.
‘Many Greybeard clients, said Craig, plan on retiring to their vacation homes and rely on the rental income for now to pay off their mortgages’
That’s some sound lending right there.
Economy.
Trump administration offering buyouts to nearly all federal workers (1/28/2025):
“The Trump administration is offering millions of federal workers the option to accept buyouts through a government-wide “deferred resignation” program, if they quit by Feb. 6.
Those who accept the offer will receive pay and benefits through Sept. 30, according to emails sent out across the federal government Tuesday evening by the U.S. Office of Personnel Management.
Those employees will not be expected to work after taking the offer, OPM specified. To accept the buyout, federal employees simply have to reply to the email with the word “Resign,” the emails instruct.
The White House expects up to 10% of federal employees to take the buyout”
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/01/28/trump-buyouts-federal-workers.html
If 50% resigned, would anybody even notice?
would anybody even notice?
Showing up in person is only for “essential” workers.
Is there a plan to reduce the number of contract workers?
oh yes — our Veterans will definitely notice
Much wailing and gnashing of teeth this morning here at fed.gov.
However, everyone is pretty much in agreement that:
1. Last night’s letter was written directly DOGE, possibly by Elon himself.
2. The letter was a scare tactic to rush Fedgov staff into resigning before weighing options.
3. The letter carries very little legal weight. We are still under collective bargaining agreements.
From what I’ve been hearing, I don’t know whether my co-workers are more nervous about losing their jobs, or losing their telework “flexibility.” For some, they appear to be one and the same. 😒
I don’t think Elon is going to get the 5-10% quits that he wants. However, I predict that he *will* get 10% retirements by the end of the year.
We haven’t heard anything on cutting contracting dollars.
Remember Reagan vs Air Traffic Controllers.
This ^^^^^^^^^^
Many here were either not born yet or were still in Elementary School.
Florida is finished
We’ve been finished before…yet here we are again.
‘Martin’s annual insurance premium under the California FAIR Plan more than doubled last year to nearly $1,700. But even with that payment, she learned after the fire that her property was underinsured’
So you were paying 850 pesos a year and you expected it to pay out in the million$ Hendrena? Jeebus insurance is way higher in most of the country.
Exactly. That was a choice.
I pay more than that to insure my two trucks, and that’s just liability.
“…trucks —snipped— liability…”
Price accessed on Gross Vehicle Weight, GVW.
These are FAIR plan rates too, the highest rates in the market. California has been refusing to face facts for a decade now. Good luck.
California has been refusing to face facts for a decade now. Good luck.
Wondering what will happen to the rates of companies that don’t leave/go BK.
Like Ben said, my car ins. is about what her million dollar + house insurance was and I have $1000 deductible and rates here are lower than average, I think.
Federal income taxes.
Trump order aims to end gender-affirming care for minors (1/28/2025):
“President Donald Trump on Tuesday ordered the federal government to stop paying for gender-affirming care for people under 19.
The executive order instructs agencies to ensure hospitals and other institutions receiving federal money stop offering gender-affirming care for minors.
The U.S. government “will not fund, sponsor, promote, assist, or support” minors’ transitions, including puberty blockers, hormone therapy or surgery, according to the order.
Gender-affirming care for minors and doctors’ ability to provide it has been widely accepted by major medical institutions, including the American Academy of Pediatrics, through independent reviews.”
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/28/trump-gender-affirming-care-minors-00201092
Widely accepted?
If you spoke out publicly against this during the last four years of the illegitimate, unelected administration, you would be canceled, de-banked, and physical assaulted by Antifa collecting Soros paychecks.
We’re taking our country back. We’re taking our civilization back.
And there is nothing you can do about it.
A friend knows someone who works at a hospital where these horrific surgeries were performed, even though state law forbid them. I am told that parents who had their kids mutilated are now begging the hospital staff to not report them to CPS.
I wonder how future historians are going to look upon this dark age of ours. Will we be universally condemned and scorned, like the decadent Romans with their vomitoriums were?
“Gender-affirming care for minors and doctors’ ability to provide it has been widely accepted by major medical institutions”
Sounds like the usual editorializing from the mainstream media. They gotta get those “now debunked” and “discredited theory that” “big like propagated by the president that” phrases into every article, to please their dwindling viewers.
And I’m surprised that the parents are begging the hospitals to stay quiet. I would think the hospitals would be begging parents not to snitch them to the fedgov and get their funding cut.
. I would think the hospitals would be begging parents not to snitch them to the fedgov and get their funding cut.
And not start a class action lawsuit.
“how future historians are going to look upon this dark age”
Which historians?
USSR under Stalin believed that they could re-write history as needed. That didn’t work out so well…
I posted this late yesterday or early this morning.
What strange statements from people who fled their country to escape violence and persecution.
“One man said he was happy to be back in Colombia.”
“We really miss being here and the truth is that some of us regret having left.”
Collin Rugg
@CollinRugg
NEW: Illegal immigrant tells other migrants not to go to the United States, says it’s not worth it after they were deported back to Colombia.
“Don’t go. Don’t go because they are deporting all of you… They have already sent soldiers to the border.”
Video:
@RichiMalagonS
0:03 / 2:12
5:18 PM · Jan 28, 2025
https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1884365505714348272
“people who fled their country to escape violence and persecution”
The reason they came here is to get welfare and free housing, for life, paid for by the U.S. taxpayer.
When they learned:
– That the streets are not paved with gold
– That the smiling NGO workers back home who told them they would never have to work were lying
– That it’s hard as rocks to earn a living wage in the US if you are unskilled.
– That winters can be brutal
Was when they decided that being sent home wasn’t all that bad
The NGOs were being truthful, right up until November 5th.
‘Sarasota County townhome and condo closed sales fell 19.5% in December year-over-year. The median sale price dropped 18.1% to $384,250’
There’s more categories of crater in this article, but this was the biggest. I have to read a lot to find these things. Puddle watchers won’t do the work. But they’ll tell us puddle watching IS the media! Sure.
Thank you brutha! You’ve been sifting through the nonsense to find us these nuggets of truth for 20 years now and we’re grateful.
Imagine paying that kind of money and being beholden to associations and huge assessments. It’s got a long way to go.
“…being beholden to associations and huge assessments.”
I’ve noticed that the nicer neighborhoods in the deep south are usually gated communities because there are so many thieves roaming the streets, like coyotes, looking for something to steal. And their young Section 8 girlfriends are always pregnant.
Another easy to jump to generalization without actual basis.
Just “I’ve noticed..”
[The main take-away of this article is this:
“The bigger question about the region’s fire corridors, said Mr. Rohde, the former battalion chief, is whether it makes sense to rebuild there at all.
“We know that the fire is going to re-burn in these locations, and we know it’s going to do it every so many years,” Mr. Rohde said. “We can’t continue to put people in harm’s way.”]
[From the N.Y. Times …]
These Are the Winds That Turn Wildfires Deadly in L.A.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/01/29/climate/santa-ana-winds-fire-risk.html
Fierce desert winds turned this month’s wildfires around Los Angeles into raging cauldrons of devastation. They also made the blazes fit a pattern.
Fires driven by Santa Ana winds, the infamous gusts that howl in over the mountains to the city’s north, account for about 90 percent of the area burned by fall and winter wildfires in Southern California since 1950, scientists estimated in a recent study.
High winds, another study found, are the most important factor for explaining whether large fires destroy homes and other structures there — not dry weather, not dense vegetation and not the fire’s proximity to areas where human settlements and wild spaces commingle, which is the critical factor in the San Francisco Bay Area and the foothills of the northern Sierra Nevada.
Such findings raise a big question for Los Angeles as it rebuilds: How can the area better gird itself against a threat as consistent, and consistently menacing, as severe wind?
Wind — fickle, invisible, shape-shifting wind — might not seem like the easiest force of nature to try to anticipate. And indeed, much about the winds that walloped Los Angeles early this month, including their ferocity, their positioning and the long spell of drought that preceded them, was out of the ordinary, even for Southern California.
“This was a very unique confluence of circumstances that just does not come together much at all,” said Ariel Cohen, the meteorologist in charge at the National Weather Service’s Los Angeles office.
Still, scientists say we know enough about Santa Anas to prepare better in several ways. We know they blow through every year, mostly in the cooler months. We know they tend to travel along certain corridors, through canyons and along hillsides where the rugged terrain steers and squeezes the desert air in its headlong rush toward the sea.
Wind-whipped wildfires are a “tractable problem,” said Jon Keeley, a fire ecologist at the United States Geological Survey. To him, the key is for electricity companies to figure out more precisely where and when to shut off power. This could stop many blazes from starting in the first place, although, as Dr. Keeley acknowledged, “that’s easier said than done.” (The authorities say they’re still investigating what ignited this month’s largest fires.)
Development in Santa Ana-prone areas could also be better regulated, said Max Moritz, a wildfire specialist at the University of California, Santa Barbara. California requires individual buildings in vulnerable places to meet fire-resistance standards. But there are no such standards for how communities should be designed to keep crowded neighborhoods away from flammable brush or how they should be laid out to help residents evacuate safely. “That’s the next frontier,” Dr. Moritz said.
To understand how Santa Anas can be consistent yet unpredictable, familiar yet capable of surprise, Dr. Cohen, the meteorologist, said it helps to think of pancake batter.
The winds begin with cool, dense air that builds up above Nevada and Utah, in the arid region known as the Great Basin. The atmosphere tries to right itself by drawing this air toward the coast. And so, like a mass of gooey batter spilling out of a bowl, the air starts spreading over the surrounding mountains. It gets funneled through narrow passes and canyons. It tumbles down slopes. It gets reshaped around obstacles, and spins out eddies and whirls.
Weather forecasters can narrow down the possibilities for where all this air ends up around Los Angeles and San Diego, and how quickly it’s moving when it gets there, Dr. Cohen said. But they can’t predict with certainty where the winds will be strongest. Nor, of course, where power lines or arsonists might start fires.
“All it takes is a slight reorientation” in the air, “and you go from relatively calm to a disaster scene,” Dr. Cohen said. Small shifts of this kind were what brought catastrophe this month to places, including Altadena, Burbank and Glendale, that don’t normally get hit by wind-stoked fires, Dr. Cohen said.
Still, firefighters in Southern California know very well which places channel the winds most often, said Mike Rohde, a former battalion chief with the Orange County Fire Authority. They even know which areas typically see wildfire earlier or later in the season, depending on how the canyons are oriented. “Like water,” the winds tend “to run down the same path the same way,” Mr. Rohde said.
California building codes aren’t blind to this fact. The state wildfire agency, Cal Fire, designates “fire hazard severity zones” based on burn history, vegetation, terrain and climate, including wind patterns. Homes in these zones have to be built to higher standards. They have to maintain buffers against their surroundings, both to keep flames from spreading and to help firefighters work safely.
But Cal Fire uses the same criteria statewide for determining hazard zones. That could be causing it to overlook certain regional differences, like how many destructive fires in Southern California are driven by wind rather than dry vegetation, said Alexandra Syphard, a research ecologist at the Conservation Biology Institute, a nonprofit science organization.
When the Santa Anas are at full blast, hurling embers thousands of feet and setting the landscape ablaze all around, how bad a fire gets isn’t primarily a question of how thick the shrubs on the ground are, Dr. Syphard’s research suggests. “The fires are spreading through the air and not the vegetation,” she said.
In an emailed statement, Cal Fire said it used localized data to estimate fire behavior at a fine scale, thereby accounting for regional differences when setting hazard zones. Experts say managing the vegetation in Southern California remains an important strategy for reducing wildfire risks in the summer.
The bigger question about the region’s fire corridors, said Mr. Rohde, the former battalion chief, is whether it makes sense to rebuild there at all.
“We know that the fire is going to re-burn in these locations, and we know it’s going to do it every so many years,” Mr. Rohde said. “We can’t continue to put people in harm’s way.”
Winds that are so predictable and have been around so long that they have a name: Santa Anas
They have nothing to do with “climate change”
It goes back further than the 50s. Someone on the blog referenced a book a few days ago, “The Ecology of Fear “ I read enough online to order the book. Chapter 3, The case for letting Malibu burn, is available to read free on longreads dot com. No one should be allowed to rebuild, it’s just going to burn again.
The Case for Letting Malibu Burn
by Longreads December 4, 2018
https://longreads.com/2018/12/04/the-case-for-letting-malibu-burn/
” hurling embers thousands of feet and setting the landscape ablaze all around”
Are they saying that clearing brush doesn’t really help, since embers will just leapfrog anyway? What if the dry brush is cleared? Would these flying embers start a new fire on the cleared land, or just fizzle out?
It’s the air!
Excellent, then we’re not accountable.
Houses in SoCal should have Xeriscaping with any foliage located at least 3-ft from the house’s siding and no taller than 5-ft. In addition, these houses should have sealed eves, fire resistant shingles and siding, alloy framed windows, etc. Unfortunately, many residents, especially older folks, tend to have a love affair with excess foliage and shade trees.
If they want excess foliage and shade trees, then they’re living in the wrong state. You can’t have 300 days of sunshine/year, and then expect enough rain to sustain that amount of foliage.
Look at all the greenery around Scottsdale, AZ on Google Maps. Water isn’t cheap there. They had over 100 days of 100-degrees temps last summer!
Look at all the greenery around Scottsdale, AZ
Scottsdale is greener than my town and I live in the foothills of Appalachia.
“Lennar, one of the biggest builders, recently said it would look to lower prices — a strategy that is anathema to the industry — to move inventory.”
They are leading the way in my neck of the woods slashing and crashing. Recent close on one of their units was 501K when the exact same model was right at 600K last summer. And I’m starting to hear the ticked off revolutionary rumblings of owners who bought at the high.
What’s In Store For Housing In 2025? Walker & Dunlop EVP Ivy Zelman On Tech Initiatives, Risks, Inventory
She is also monitoring the growing discrepancy between publicly owned and independent homebuilders. Today, public builders construct more than 50% of the new homes on the market — a number that is expected to keep growing. Twenty years ago, it was a very different story.
“Just to give you perspective, when I started covering the industry 30 years ago, that number was in the high single digits,” she said. “[Public builders] have dramatically consolidated the industry, and there’s more to come.”
One of the advantages of public builders is their networks of “great trade partners” that are typically large. As a result, their risk is perceived to be smaller than it is for private builders that depend more on smaller, independent trade partners, Zelman said.
Today’s housing market is increasingly about economies of scale and efficiency, allowing public builders to gain more market share. Zelman said the cost of capital for public builders is between 500 and 1,000 basis points lower than private companies.
“I think that they’re both growing organically and through acquisition to obtain the market share growth that they’ve had, so they’re doing it in both fashions,” she said. “I would say that they also have, because of a lower cost of capital, the ability to pay more for land, and by paying more for land, they can bring more communities to market.”
Single-family home inventory, on the other hand, was up 15% to 20% last year, which is very low relative to any historic period, Zelman said. This can partially be attributed to the “lock-in effect,” where about 75% of homeowners are locked in at mortgage rates of 5% or less.
“What starts to happen is some people will keep the home, move, but rent it out,” she said. “They don’t want to lose the asset because it’s a cheap cost of capital, and that might be an opportunity for them to retain the asset and get home appreciation longer-term.”
Alternatively, if people are moving to a more affordable market, such as from the Midwest to the Southwest, a lot of that arbitrage may allow them to overcome the lock-in effect, Zelman said.
In Florida, for example, inventories have risen by as much as 70% in some areas, but a lot of people are now saying that they may not need a home in these areas anymore due to elevated cost of living, she said. The cost of capital is now much higher, home insurance has skyrocketed, and these homes are now more costly to maintain.
“Realtors like to joke that in a recession, there will always be the three D’s to create transactions: death, divorce and default,” she said. “And even in an economy where we don’t have risk of default, you have discretionary buyers and sellers that start to get really tired of waiting.”
https://www.bisnow.com/national/news/commercial-real-estate/ivy-zelman-housing-walker-dunlop-studiob-127680
They use the lower cost of capital to undercut the existing shack would be movers. That’s how they hand out 30 years mortgages at 5%.
Exactly
“What starts to happen is some people will keep the home, move, but rent it out,” she said. “They don’t want to lose the asset because it’s a cheap cost of capital, and that might be an opportunity for them to retain the asset and get home appreciation longer-term.”
That works if the promise of an appreciating asset seems real and rents remain high. But prices are dropping and so are rents….if you can rent it. Got a lot of rental inventory stacking up. And the smart ones are finally starting to use a pencil and realize that their capital is better off sitting in a low risk savings vehicle at 4.5% to 5%.
“That works if the promise of an appreciating asset seems real and rents remain high.”
Works great if asset inflation doesn’t exceed wage growth, but that isn’t the case. And now the fed has a massive retired cohort to juggle.
At least it was cheaper than renting.
New York Times — Powerless, Democrats Debate Just How Deep in the Wilderness They Are (1/29/2025):
“Democratic lawmakers, activists and strategists across the ideological spectrum are engaged in a fierce debate over how badly damaged the 2024 election left the party’s brand, a consequential internal argument that is already shaping early efforts to rebuild.
While there is none of the denialism that gripped Republicans after President Trump lost in 2020, Democratic leaders are in sharp disagreement over how to interpret losses that not only returned Mr. Trump to power but also put Republicans in total control of the federal government.”
Denialism? The 2020 election was stolen.
“Many loud voices in the party are demanding a reckoning, and a reinvention. But others envision less an overhaul than a wait-and-see approach, hoping to harness what they expect will be a backlash of public opinion against Mr. Trump’s ambitious White House agenda to capture the House of Representatives in 2026.
“We need deep changes and hard conversations, not nibbling around the margins,” said Representative Pat Ryan, a Democrat who represents a swing district north of New York City and who outperformed the top of the ticket by one of the wider margins in the nation. “At the core, the brand is weakened to the point that, without members running against it in tough districts, we can’t get to a majority, which is structurally untenable.”
Democrats who share this bleaker outlook see statistical signs of the party’s decline everywhere: Blue states are ceding population to red states. Voter registration figures are mostly headed in the wrong direction. More Americans are identifying with the G.O.P. than with Democrats. And Democrats lost ground last year among core constituencies including lower-income, Latino and younger voters as Mr. Trump swept every battleground state.”
https://archive.ph/VlZRZ
“we can’t get to a majority, which is structurally untenable”
And you never will. The border is closed, forever, and 20+ million criminal invaders you were counting on to vote Democrat Party for life are getting deported. Stolen elections have consequences, @ssholes. Seethe harder.
Denialism? The 2020 election was stolen.
And they tried to drag Cameltoe across the finish line, but this time they couldn’t
What to Know About Trump’s Plan to Slash the Federal Work Force.
The Office of Personnel Management sought to entice civilian federal employees to resign, as President Trump seeks to reshape the U.S. government. Here are details of the plan.
https://archive.ph/96PWx#selection-901.0-905.176
The Trump administration has offered roughly two million government employees the option to resign and continue being paid for several months, a move that could significantly reduce the size of the federal work force.
The plan immediately drew criticism from Democrats and unions representing federal workers, who said such a vast reduction would create chaos for Americans who rely on government services.
Here is a look at the plan and its possible implications:
What is the plan?
An email sent to employees on Tuesday by the Office of Personnel Management, which oversees the federal civilian work force, was titled “Fork in the Road.” It laid out a program for deferred resignations, under which employees of federal agencies are given the option to resign and continue being paid until Sept. 30.
Anyone who accepts the offer will not be expected to continue working, except in rare cases, and would be paid until the end of September, it said. The last date to accept the offer is Feb. 6.
To do so, employees could simply send an email from their government account with the word “resign.”
The O.P.M. published a question-and-answer page about the plan on its website.
Why is the Trump administration doing this?
Slashing the size of the federal government is a priority for Mr. Trump, as it has been for many Republican presidents. After winning the November election, he said that a smaller and more efficient government, with less bureaucracy, would be a “perfect gift to America” for the 250th anniversary of the Declaration of Independence in 2026.
Elon Musk, the tech billionaire Mr. Trump tapped to lead what he called the Department of Government Efficiency, on Tuesday shared a post on X, the social media platform he owns, claiming that 5 to 10 percent of the federal work force was expected to quit, saving the government $100 billion.
Mr. Trump has also described the federal work force as part of a “deep state” that attempted to thwart his priorities during his first term in office. Dramatic action is necessary to combat this group’s power, according to Mr. Trump.
Critics say Mr. Trump’s efforts risk gutting federal agencies whose nonpartisan work offers far-reaching legal, economic and social benefits for Americans.
The payout plan is part of a raft of changes that Mr. Trump envisions for the federal civil service, some of which were detailed in the email sent by the O.P.M. They include ending remote work, changes to performance standards to ensure that all employees are “reliable, loyal, trustworthy,” and the reclassification of some workers to what is known as “at-will status,” in effect making them easier to fire.
Who is eligible?
The O.P.M. said that all federal workers were eligible, with the exception of military personnel, postal workers and employees involved with immigration enforcement or national security. Individual agencies could also exclude specific staff members or positions from the offer, it said.
What happens to those who don’t take the offer?
The letter says that the deferred resignation offer is “completely voluntary,” and that employees who don’t respond to the email will retain their jobs.
But it warns those who choose to remain in their positions that retaining their jobs is not guaranteed.
“At this time, we cannot give you full assurance regarding the certainty of your position or agency but should your position be eliminated you will be treated with dignity and will be afforded the protections in place for such positions,” the letter said.
Is the offer legal?
Much about the plan remained unclear, including whether the administration can legally offer such a sweeping buyout package without budget authorization from Congress. On the Senate floor Tuesday night, Senator Tim Kaine, Democrat of Virginia, urged federal workers not to resign, and warned that the administration was not legally bound to pay them after they stopped working.
“The president has no authority to make that offer. There’s no budget line item to pay people who are not showing up for work,” Mr. Kaine said. “If you accept that offer and resign, he’ll stiff you.”
The American Federation of Government Employees, which represents 800,000 federal workers and is the largest union of federal employees, condemned the offer, which its president said would “cause chaos for the Americans who depend on a functioning federal government.”
The White House is already facing mounting legal challenges to the flood of executive orders Mr. Trump has issued in the nine days since he was inaugurated. This week, a federal judge halted a Trump administration order to pause billions of dollars in federal grant and loan programs. Another temporarily blocked Mr. Trump’s order ending birthright citizenship.
The plan immediately drew criticism from Democrats and unions representing federal workers, who said such a vast reduction would create chaos for Americans who rely on government services.
Half of them could quit and few would notice.
“The Trump administration has offered roughly two million government employees the option to resign and continue being paid for several months, a move that could significantly reduce the size of the federal work force.”
There used to be a program called, VERA, i.e., voluntary early retirement authorization. These were usually reserved for the higher level employees when the government was closing down an office.
Amid the Chaos, Trump Has a Simple Message: He’s in Charge
The new president has moved with lightning speed to purge officials he deems disloyal and rid agencies of policies he considers liberal.
https://archive.ph/AX80H#selection-4757.0-4761.136
N.Y. Times – When he took office last week, President Trump said he would measure his success in part by “the wars we never get into.” But he has eagerly waged a full-fledged assault on his own government.
In his first eight days in office, Mr. Trump mounted a lightning blitz against the federal government that has the nation’s capital in an uproar. He has moved quickly and aggressively to eliminate pockets of resistance in what he calls “the deep state” and put his own stamp on far-flung corners of the bureaucracy.
It has been a campaign of breathtaking scope and relentless velocity, one unlike any new president has tried in modern times. It has been a blend of personal and political as he seeks revenge against those who investigated him or his allies, while simultaneously demolishing the foundations of the modern liberal state and asserting more control than he or any of his predecessors had in the past.
Mr. Trump has purged perceived enemies from a range of agencies; begun to rid the government of diversity, environmental, gender and other “woke” policies that he objects to; sought to punish those who acted against his interests in the past; and fired independent inspectors general charged with guarding against potential corruption and abuse by his administration. His directive to temporarily freeze trillions of dollars of federal spending touched off a firestorm and prompted a judge to block him, for now.
Mr. Trump presents this effort as a fundamental reorientation of government and politics, in effect reversing generations of change to return to a different bygone era. “We’re forging a new political majority that’s shattering and replacing Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition, which dominated American politics for over 100 years,” he told House Republicans at their retreat this week.
Never mind his faulty math — Roosevelt was first elected 92 years ago — Mr. Trump has approached his mission more systematically and methodically than he ever did in his chaotic first term, when he became the first U.S. president who had never served in public office or the military.
Instead of fumbling around to figure out how to even draft an executive order — his travel ban on select Muslim-majority countries eight years ago had changes scribbled on it by hand just minutes before he signed it — this time he and his team came in ready to quickly move forward on myriad fronts.
This was an odd benefit of losing his bid for re-election in 2020. As the first president since Grover Cleveland to come back to office after being defeated, Mr. Trump had the advantage of both four years of experience in the White House and four years in hiatus to map out plans for his return. Aided by a cadre of like-minded ideological advisers, he crafted a sweeping set of plans to quickly seize the reins of government.
The shock-and-awe onslaught has not just changed the government’s approach to major policies, as happens anytime a president of one party takes over from that of another. Mr. Trump is intent on “deconstruction of the administrative state,” as his onetime chief strategist Stephen K. Bannon put it during his first term, a goal predicated on the assumption that the bureaucracy is inherently biased against conservatives and their priorities.
“Trump is on a wrecking cruise to de-professionalize the civil service and threaten basic services to Americans,” said Representative Gerald E. Connolly, Democrat of Virginia, whose district includes many federal workers. “It’s unlawful firings and impoundments that threaten to unravel 142 years” of tradition of a “civil service immune from partisan politics.”
At the president’s order, the career prosecutors who worked for the special counsel Jack Smith on investigations into Mr. Trump have been fired. And after the president granted clemency to those who ransacked the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, an investigation was opened into the actions of career prosecutors who charged those Trump supporters.
Dozens of career officials at the National Security Council were sent home while their loyalty is being reviewed. Dozens of other career officials, at the U.S. Agency for International Development, were put on leave for suspicion of resisting an order by Mr. Trump. The Justice Department ordered a temporary halt to all civil rights enforcement.
Mr. Trump has also rescinded certain additional protections for senior civil servants enacted by former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., and this week he ordered a review of people in policy-making positions to ensure that they follow his administration’s priorities or face dismissal. The administration also offered an incentive to federal workers to resign as of Sept. 30 in hopes of encouraging a broad exodus so that slots can be filled with loyalists.
But the most explosive move so far was Mr. Trump’s order on Monday night temporarily freezing up to $3 trillion federal grants and loans to determine whether they meet his priorities, even though they had been passed by Congress. More than any other move, this order generated widespread Democratic protests and could have affected everyday Americans, including Mr. Trump’s own voters.
A federal judge in Washington on Tuesday stepped in to temporarily prevent it from taking effect, pending further review of its legality, capping a day of confusion. For all its efficiency so far, the Trump team stumbled over enactment of this order, unable to promptly answer basic questions about who it would affect and for how long.
At her debut briefing on Tuesday, Karoline Leavitt, the White House press secretary, assured Americans that it would not affect Social Security, Medicare, welfare or food stamps, but did not know whether it would affect Medicaid, which covers health care for 72 million Americans, most of whom are lower-income.
“The American people gave President Trump an overwhelming mandate on Nov. 5,” Ms. Leavitt said, referring to Mr. Trump’s 1.5-percentage-point popular vote victory, one of the smallest since the 19th century. “And he’s trying to ensure that the tax money going out the door in this very bankrupt city actually aligns with the will and priorities of the American people.”
A memo sent to Congress by the Office of Management and Budget on Tuesday insisted that Medicaid would not be affected by the order. But later in the day, the White House acknowledged that the online Medicaid portal was down even as it insisted that payments were still being processed and sent.
For all their loud criticism, congressional Democrats have limited ability to do much other than complain since they control neither house of Congress. Instead, Mr. Trump’s opponents are left to turn to the courts to try to stop him, as they did with the temporary spending freeze. Mr. Trump’s order on civil servants has already generated a legal challenge, and there could be more over his decisions to eliminate diversity programs and fire inspectors general.
Mr. Trump and his team anticipated pushback and expected to have to fight all the way to the Supreme Court to make some of these changes, hopeful that they will be ratified by the six-to-three conservative majority among the justices.
At one point while running for president again, Mr. Trump said he hoped to trigger a legal fight to overturn the Impoundment Control Act of 1974, which was passed after President Richard M. Nixon refused to spend billions of dollars appropriated by Congress.
The act enshrined into law a previous understanding that a president cannot unilaterally decide not to spend money that Congress had approved. The law laid out a process allowing spending items to be temporarily suspended during a fast-track request to lawmakers to rescind them.
“When I return to the White House, I will do everything I can to challenge the Impoundment Control Act in court, and if necessary, get Congress to overturn it,” Mr. Trump said in 2023. “We will overturn it.”
Whether he will succeed in overturning it or not, it may take a while to find out. But part of the point is to have the fight, win or lose. Even if he gets resistance on one front or another, Mr. Trump is sending a signal to the federal government: He plans to reshape it in his image and anyone who disagrees should get out of the way or he will try to run them over.
“the first president since Grover Cleveland to come back to office after being defeated”
The 2020 election was stolen.
The New York Times is the enemy of the American people.
Washington Post — RFK Jr., Trump and the triumph of coronavirus surreality (1/29/2025):
“An entire alternate reality about the pandemic emerged, a narrative that — like the election-fraud and Capitol riot rhetoric that followed — fit together disconnected incidents and allegations to suggest (in more extreme iterations) that the entire pandemic was contrived and dishonest. There was the reality and then there was the surreality: a theory that a devious, sinister plot had been hatched by anti-American criminals who wanted to … make people wear masks for some reason. It wasn’t an attempt to keep people from dying; it was an attempt to censor conservatives/inject microchips/ensure obedience from the masses.”
^ Everything in this paragraph is true. The Washington Post is the enemy of the American people.
“Robert F. Kennedy Jr. was well-positioned for that moment. He had spent years amplifying false and debunked claims about vaccinations, building an organization and clout around the idea that experts were misleading the public. Prior to the pandemic, he didn’t get much traction. After all, there was enormous real-world evidence that vaccines worked very well at stamping out dangerous diseases. But then, many on the right turned against coronavirus vaccines and — thanks in part to the effectiveness of standard inoculation programs — also began to question whether any vaccines were effective.
More than 1 million Americans died during the pandemic that began on Trump’s watch — and in the next presidential election Trump returned to office. He won in part by embracing the surreal narrative about the pandemic and, upon winning, tapped Kennedy to run the agencies that ensure vaccine availability and respond to future pandemics.”
https://archive.ph/Fq8P9
Anthony Fauci, Pfizer, Moderna, are directly responsible for the death and maiming of tens of millions of people. The unelected administration in the White House the last four years are unanimously guilty of medical genocide.
Neglect, abandonment claims filed against embattled addiction treatment empire
She was flown here from Illinois. He was flown here from Texas. They were strung out, seeking help, and fell into a confounding dystopia.
Two former clients have filed new complaints against Nathan Young and his embattled network of addiction treatment and sober living facilities, describing nightmarish scenarios where house managers sold marijuana, illicit drug use was rampant, hungry clients were told to get food stamps and expensive treatment was billed to insurers but not actually provided to patients.
None of Young’s facilities was drug-free or safe, the claims assert, charging Young and associates with negligence, neglect and abandonment of those they were supposed to shepherd toward sobriety.
The suits target Young, also known as Pablo Lopez; David Young, also known as Sancho Lopez; Apex Recovery, Commonwealth Rehab, Beach Street Rehab, Healing Path Recovery, 55 Silver, Auburn Rehab, Antioch Rehab, Elmo Detox and Cameron Park Rehab.
Neither Young nor his attorneys responded to requests for comment, which come in the wake of a string of headaches for Young and his many companies.
The state has revoked licenses for three Young-related facilities, saying they posed a threat to clients’ health and safety “due to significant non-compliance with regulatory standards, including failures to fulfill obligations, ensure client well-being and adhere to essential procedures.”
Young’s network arranged for health insurance for out-of-state clients, often through Blue Cross Blue Shield of Oklahoma, clients said. The insurer stopped paying claims in California late last year, resulting in a sudden, chaotic exodus from Young-related operations.
Young weaponizes addiction for profit, insurance giant Aetna has charged in a $40 million federal lawsuit, asserting that his businesses cycle patients from one entity to another and encourage relapse so billing cycles can start anew.
In turn, Young countersued Aetna, asserting that it greedily endangers addicts’ lives by cutting treatment short and indefinitely delaying payments. “Aetna’s practices likely contribute to increased and prolonged suffering, and even death, of enrollees suffering from addiction,” Young’s countersuit said.
Young has defended his operations, saying that they’re willing to treat homeless people, those with behavior issues, prior convictions or other law enforcement history that “fancier” providers might snub.
The vast network enrolled hundreds of clients and depended on the rental market to find places to put them. That has left a trail of lawsuits where landlords said tenants used illegal drugs and overdosed at the properties; yelled, screamed, fought and raced cars around neighborhoods; and some landlords suffered large losses via property damage and unpaid rent.
Marijuana was in plentiful supply at the facilities, Kyle Witt’s suit said. Supervision and structured programming, however, were not.
“Drug and alcohol consumption was a daily occurrence at each of its facilities,” the suit said. “During what defendants referred to as ‘stabilization,’ (Witt) and other residents were not provided any medically assisted detox or monitoring whatsoever.”
In May, Witt got so stoned at one of the facilities — without any intervention from staffers — that he dove headfirst into the in-ground swimming pool and fractured his neck in three places, the suit said.
He was taken to USC Medical Center but received no follow-up care. He was never re-assessed or moved to a higher level of care, and staffers didn’t notify the state regulator of a relapse involving serious injury, which is required by law, it said.
Witt, from Texas, said he wore a C-brace for months. Addiction treatment consisted of logging onto Zoom sessions from 8:30 a.m. to 3 p.m. each day, where he was required to make a comment (“I pet my dog to help deal with anger”), but didn’t get the tools he sought, he said. Insurers were billed thousands of dollars for these sessions, even when Witt logged on from unlicensed “sober homes,” where treatment is not supposed to be provided, his attorney said.
In late September, Witt was “abruptly terminated” from the program and tossed out onto Skid Row, “a dangerous homeless encampment in downtown Los Angeles,” with his dog, the suit said. There, he relapsed again.
“As a result of defendants’ collective negligence, he has suffered and will continue to suffer emotional, mental, psychiatric, physical injuries and damages,” the suit said.
Witt is now back in Texas, trying to pull things together. He had never been to rehab, or to California, before.
“I put all my faith in these people,” he said. “It’s depressing. I don’t know how else to put it. People should know: Don’t go there. Just don’t.”
Some events took place at homes that are unlicensed and unregulated (sober homes are, by definition, simple collections of like-minded people rather than actual treatment programs), but attorney Karen Gold argues that, here, they are essentially one and the same.
Young’s companies provided licensable treatment services at unlicensed homes, and billed insurers for them, she said.
“You sit them in front of a screen and say, ‘Here is your program’ — you’re running unlicensed programs and guaranteeing failure,” said Gold, who has been handling rehab-related cases for many years.
“You’re taking these people, giving them hope, promising things you cannot deliver,” Gold said. “That’s the infuriating part to me.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/neglect-abandonment-claims-filed-against-embattled-addiction-treatment-empire/ar-AA1xWytL
“Two former clients have filed new complaints against Nathan Young and his embattled network of addiction treatment and sober living facilities, describing nightmarish scenarios where house managers sold marijuana, illicit drug use was rampant, hungry clients were told to get food stamps and expensive treatment was billed to insurers but not actually provided to patients.”
The corruption is palpable!
Renton police, families slam King Co. judge for release of 2 violent suspects
RENTON, Wash. – A grieving mother and sister are demanding answers after the suspect charged with killing their loved one in a hit-and-run was released on low bail only to vanish. It’s one of several recent decisions by King County Superior Court Judge Johanna Bender facing criticism.
On September 7, 2024, dashcam footage captured the tragic moments leading up to the fatal hit-and-run that killed 60-year-old Tim Gerchmez. The video shows 19-year-old Urias Morales Perez, who was returning home from a birthday party, striking Gerchmez at the intersection of Airport Way and Rainier Avenue South. Gerchmez was walking in a crosswalk when he was struck, throwing him up on the windshield and shattering it.
“He didn’t even tap on the brakes after hitting my son. He kept going and went home,” said Phillis Gerchmez, Tim’s mother.
Shortly after the incident, Renton police located Morales Perez. Police say he was heavily intoxicated. Despite the severity of the charges—vehicular homicide and hit-and-run, and with a previous hit-and-run on his record—Judge Bender drastically reduced his bail from $100,000 to $10,000, allowing him to post just a $1,000 bond in cash. This decision was made in a court session where Tim’s sister, Beth McIntyre, had joined via Zoom to express her concerns.
“I feel and I think my family feels that he remains a danger to the community and should stay in jail so he doesn’t kill anyone else until his sentencing,” McIntyre stated. “I didn’t even want him to have an ankle monitor. He killed somebody and should have been in jail until his sentencing.”
Despite the family’s pleas, Judge Bender stood by her decision.
“This is craziness. Why would you let a young 19-year-old go that killed a 60-year-old man and then not expect him to do it again?” added McIntyre.
The next month, Morales Perez was back in court where prosecutors asked that he be remanded to jail because the county had a backlog on setting up his electronic alcohol monitoring system.
Judge Bender ruled it wasn’t his fault and denied the request, letting him go home with no monitor.
“So, I’m going to allow your client to remain in the community and a significant exercise of trust on my part. I’m going to believe that he is going to continue engaging in the good law-abiding behavior that he has been engaging in,” she told his attorney in court.
With concerns for community safety, Renton Police Chief Jon Schuldt reached out to Judge Bender, challenging her earlier comments about Morales Perez’s “good law-abiding behavior.” In his letter, he wrote, “Good law-abiding behavior? Let’s not forget he killed a member of our community while operating a motor vehicle impaired. So, I can explain it to my community, can you please help me understand the logic of allowing Mr. Perez to be free pending trial. I feel as though his behavior has been minimized at the expense of public safety.”
Chief Schuldt expressed his frustration during an interview at his office.
“I think it really thwarts the trust in the criminal justice system when our community sees it’s almost like a revolving door. We’re arresting these violent criminals and then allowing them back out on the street,” he said.
On Nov. 8, Morales Perez failed to appear in court for a plea hearing. Judge Bender then signed a $200,000 bench warrant for his arrest.
He wasn’t the first violent suspect arrested by Renton police and set free by Judge Bender.
Detectives arrested Jose Lopez for second-degree rape. Judge Bender ordered him released on electronic home monitoring. He cut off his GPS tracker and hasn’t been seen since.
Another suspect, Joumari Wilson, cut off his GPS tracker after being released by Bender and was on the run for over a year until he was recently arrested by the Renton PD Violent Crime Unit. Now, he’s being held on $350,000 bail charged with new gun crimes prosecutors say he committed while free.
“I think she should be removed from the bench. I think she’s done way more harm than good,” said Phillis.
That’s a challenge in Washington state. Judge Bender was appointed by Governor Jay Inslee in 2015 and later elected to the bench. Superior court judges are not subject to voter recall like other elected officials. Families of victims can file a complaint with the Judicial Conduct Commission. They can recommend that a judge be suspended but the state Supreme Court makes the final ruling.
The Gerchmez family doubts they will ever get justice for Tim’s death because Renton PD believes he has already fled to Mexico.
https://www.fox13seattle.com/news/families-slam-king-co-judge
This is what “vote blue no matter who” gets you.
“Detectives arrested Jose Lopez for second-degree rape. Judge Bender ordered him released on electronic home monitoring. He cut off his GPS tracker and hasn’t been seen since.”
Likely back in Mexico. Hopefully he’ll get street justice when he encounters someone tougher during his next crime.
Angry Tesla owners threaten to take action against Elon Musk
Loyal Tesla owners who have purchased Musk’s expensive EVs are not happy about a recent event that casts him in a negative light. And they are sounding off, making it extremely clear that they aren’t going to stand by him, even if doing so may be financially inconvenient for them.
Following the inauguration, one Reddit (RDDT) user asked Tesla owners on the r/AskReddit how they felt about Musk and negative comments quickly rolled in. Many Tesla owners expressed regret, stating that they wouldn’t be buying another vehicle from the company.
“I’m stuck with my car for now but I won’t be buying another Tesla” stated one comment while another added “I bought mine before Musk went totally off the rails, and I regret the purchase.”
Another user drew multiple parallels between Musk and Ford founder Henry Ford, stating “Elon went from the Henry Ford of our generation to the Henry Ford of our generation.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/angry-tesla-owners-threaten-to-take-action-against-elon-musk/ar-AA1y09ed
Who cares?
If you can afford a Tesla, you are not a poor person, so quit your whining.
Also, if you can afford a Tesla, you probably live in a house with a garage or at least a driveway where you can charge your EV overnight. That also means you’re not poor.
German economy in crisis: What can the next government do?
Lower energy costs, lower taxes, more financial incentives for investment, more flexible labor laws, an end to social security payments and above all, less bureaucracy — that is what German businesses are demanding from the country’s next government.
“The economy is shrinking. Unemployment is growing. Germany has become unattractive for investors,” that is how Rainer Dulger, president of the Confederation of German Employers’ Associations (BDA), summed up the situation at the last employers’ conference in late October 2024.
Well-trained and specialized employees have become rare. Regulations and bureaucracy, said Dulger, have grown at a rate proportional to the growth of other burdens heaped on companies — such as rising employment and production costs. Germany, he said, is no longer competitive globally.
Germany’s economic strength depends heavily on industry, which is responsible for roughly a quarter of GDP. After two years of recession, the Federation of German Industry (BDI) calculated that production output is now far lower than it was five years ago. The result: Less is produced and built in Germany, and less is bought and consumed.
In their latest annual advisory report to the German federal government’s Council of Experts, economists documented a continuing downturn across all sectors of the economy. Especially disconcerting are indications that fewer German products now find their way abroad.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the energy crisis, inflation, and the forced transition to a climate-neutral economy sent energy prices rising, which hit energy intensive companies hardest.
“Important economic sectors such as manufacturing or electro-technologies were especially hard hit, whereas the chemical industry stabilized at a low level after the setbacks it suffered in 2023,” wrote the Council of Experts.
Businesses are demanding a significant reduction in energy prices to make Germany competitive again. But at the top of the corporate wish list is an even greater reduction in the price of bureaucracy. According to the Ifo Institute, a Munich-based economic research outfit, German businesses spend €65 billion ($68 billion) annually on compulsory documentation and reports related to planning and certification processes.
The mood in Germany’s businesses is grim, and uncertainty about economic development is growing. Rather than investing at home, many companies are now looking for more attractive production bases abroad. In response to a recent BDI survey, roughly one-third of businesses said they had already offshored research and development operations. This caused BDI president Peter Leibinger to warn that Germany’s very “foundation” as a place to base businesses was under threat.
An alliance of some 100 economic and lobbying associations is calling for nothing less than a complete economic policy turnaround from Germany’s next government. The group is calling for a day of nationwide action on January 29. On that day, businesses across the country will draw attention to their problems and demands, with a major demonstration to be staged at Berlin’s famous Brandenburg Gate.
Organizers say businesses will use the demonstration to send an “SOS” to politicians.
“The situation is serious. We are at an economic tipping point and are massively hemorrhaging economic substance like never before,” reads a “wake-up call for politics” on a special dedicated website
. The page, set up by organizers, also claims that Germany’s upcoming February 23 vote will be one that determines the country’s “destiny.”
https://www.dw.com/en/germany-economic-crisis-business-response-2025/a-71437667
Colombian customs official pleads guilty in money laundering case tied to DEA misconduct
TAMPA, Florida (AP) — A Colombian customs worker admitted his role Tuesday in taking bribes and funneling more than $1 million in drug proceeds in a case that threatened to expose dirty dealings between U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration agents and their informants.
Omar Ambuila’s surprise guilty plea to a single count of conspiring to commit money laundering came on the second day of his trial in federal court in Tampa, Florida.
Ambuila, 63, was extradited to the U.S. from Colombia in 2023. He faces up to 20 years in prison at an April sentencing.
The proceedings had been expected to shed new light on a scandal that resulted in more than a dozen federal agents being disciplined or ousted from their jobs for a range of misconduct during DEA money laundering investigations around the world.
Among the witnesses called to testify by the government was Jose Irizarry, a notoriously corrupt DEA agent serving a lengthy federal prison term for his role in a closely related money laundering conspiracy.
The Internal Revenue Service and U.S. Department of Homeland Security first came to suspect Ambuila after his daughter posted photos of herself carrying designer handbags, taking luxury vacations to Paris and driving a $330,000 red Lamborghini.
“People assume that because they can’t make it you can’t make it either,” Jenny Ambuila wrote in a May 2017 Facebook post where she shows a photo of the Lamborghini. “Prove them wrong.”
The lavish, fairy tale lifestyle of the 20-something University of Miami graduate didn’t match her modest income as a social media influencer or that of her father, who was earning about $2,000 a month as a mid-level supervisor in Colombia’s main port of Buenaventura, a major transit point for U.S.-bound cocaine.
A chunk of the funds used in 2016 to pay for the Lamborghini Huracan Spyder originated in an account controlled by Jhon Marin, whom an IRS criminal investigator described at trial as the Florida-based nephew of a “known contraband smuggler in Colombia.”
An Associated Press investigation previously identified the smuggler as Diego Marin, a longtime DEA informant known to investigators as Colombia’s “Contraband King” for allegedly laundering money through imported appliances and other goods. A trove of government records obtained by AP describe Marin as a one-time U.S. law enforcement source who eventually was deactivated and then operated by federal agents “off the books.”
For years, DEA agents partied with Marin around the world after purportedly targeting him, the records show, with Marin frequently picking up the bill for dinners and prostitutes.
Irizarry, who is serving a 12-year sentence for his crimes, described to the AP how Marin for years bribed officials in Colombia and gifted prostitutes, expensive meals and tickets to U.S. anti-narcotics agents in a bid to avoid arrest. He gave a similar account to federal investigators, saying DEA agents falsified government records about Marin to justify profligate international travel.
Irizarry’s case highlighted the DEA’s continued use of so-called Attorney General Exempted Operations to launder tens of millions of dollars a year on behalf of the world’s most violent drug cartels through shell companies. Agents describe the AGEOs as a robust tool that has resulted in scores of high-level arrests and cocaine seizures.
But the DEA also has faced criticism for allowing huge amounts of money in the operations to go unseized, enabling cartels to continue plying their trade, and for failing to tightly monitor and track the stings, making it difficult to evaluate their results.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/crime/colombian-customs-official-pleads-guilty-in-money-laundering-case-tied-to-dea-misconduct/ar-AA1y1qko
‘In unsettling territory’: Local leaders grappling with first anti-immigrant policy blitz by Trump
The city won’t abandon its commitment to give sanctuary to immigrants and is working hard to protect itself and immigrants who live here from the Trump administration, city councillors were told Monday. The assurances came amid intensified broadsides from the White House aimed at deporting millions of migrants and punishing communities that help them.
From trainings intended to educate migrants and others about their rights, to a meeting scheduled this week to plan how to respond to possible raids by federal immigration agents, Cambridge needs to “push back” against the new administration’s actions, vice mayor Marc McGovern said.
At the Jan. 27 council meeting, several officials said the city withstood attacks during Trump’s first term, but this is different.
“This administration is going to think of very devious ways in which to get back at immigrants,” McGovern said.
For example, he said, the U.S.Department of Justice has promised to cut federal funds that support legal help to immigrants. “We may have to think about if that’s happening to some of the legal services that we rely on here In Cambridge,” McGovern said. “How do we maybe help fill that gap financially to make sure that attorneys are not getting laid off and can meet the demand. So there’s going to be a lot of different ways we’re going to have to push back.”
https://www.cambridgeday.com/2025/01/28/in-unsettling-territory-local-leaders-grappling-with-first-anti-immigrant-policy-blitz-by-trump/
For example, he said, the U.S.Department of Justice has promised to cut federal funds that support legal help to immigrants.
It’s easy to be a sanctuary city when the Feds pay for everything. When you have to pay for it, then it’s a whole new ball of wax.
When you have to pay for it, then it’s a whole new ball of wax.
Chicago has a $1B deficit. Good luck with raising taxes with the message:” Do it for the immigrants.”
a meeting scheduled this week to plan how to respond to possible raids by federal immigration agents
If you interfere, you will be arrested. There have been many public warnings regarding this. I’m gonna guess the commie city halls think Homan is bluffing. FAFO
Chicago Resident Rips Officials Criticizing Deportations Of Illegal Immigrants
Chicago resident Vashon Tuncle appeared on Fox News Monday to call out state and local officials for their pushback on the deportation of illegal migrants.
Following his inauguration last week, President Donald Trump fulfilled his campaign promise to shut down the U.S. southern border and carry out mass deportations as encounters at the border reached record highs under the Biden-Harris administration.
On “The Ingraham Angle,” host Laura Ingraham asked Tuncle for his thoughts on Democratic Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker and Democratic Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson over their opposition to the Trump administration’s push to deport illegal immigrants.
“How do you guys sleep at night knowing that there are rapists out here that committed these heinous crimes against the children and the women?” Tuncle asked, referring to Johnson and Pritzker. “How do you guys sleep at night knowing that we’re half a billion dollars in debt when it comes to these illegals? How do these men sleep at night knowing that you’re putting illegal immigrants that are committing crimes over the American citizens? I just can’t believe that they’re doing this.”
Following Trump and Homan’s crackdown on illegal migrants, Johnson announced Friday that he would team up with the Chicago Transit Authority (CTA) to launch a “Know Your Rights” ad campaign. The ads will be displayed on more than 400 video screens across CTA stops to guide commuters on their rights if they are visited “by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement.” On Sunday, Pritzker also criticized the Trump administration, saying he would “stand in the way” of federal efforts if the feds were to break state laws.
“I just want to say this to all the criers out there who are crying over the undocumented immigrants who’ve been here for years and whatever, like Selena Gomez. Tom Homan has already made this clear. If you are here illegally, you’re not off the table. You are committing a crime within itself if you’re here illegally in America.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/chicago-resident-rips-officials-criticizing-deportations-of-illegal-immigrants/ar-AA1y08vS
I just can’t believe that they’re doing this.”
This is what happens when you elect commies to run city hall. They don’t care about you, they just want to tax you.
If you are here illegally, you’re not off the table. You are committing a crime within itself if you’re here illegally in America.”
I am overseas and I know several people in this country whose work visas have expired. They worry everyday they will get busted, sent to jail and then get sent home. In fact, I recently saw a CCTV video of 2 women being arrested at work by authorities for visa “problems.”
Amid new admin rule drama, Walters seeks proof of parents’ citizenship
Following public outrage over his proposed administrative rule requiring public schools to report the number of enrolled undocumented students, State Superintendent of Public Instruction Ryan Walters specified the agency will be seeking documentation proving both students’ citizenship and their parents’ citizenship after Tuesday’s State Board of Education meeting.
“We are asking for documentation on both, yes, the child and the parent,” Walters said to reporters after the meeting. “We want information on who is in the country illegally or not. So that includes the family that’s supplying enrollment.”
With the board meeting scheduled to begin at 9:30 a.m., protesters toting signs and draped in Mexican flags and traditional clothing began filling the front entrance and grass lawn outside the Oklahoma State Department of Education building.
OSDE announced the 2025 proposed administrative rule changes Dec. 16, sparking both outrage and support, along with what Walters referred to as “gaslighting” and “lies” by the media.
“I wanted to start off by being crystal clear: Our rule around illegal immigration accounting is simply that. It is to account for how many students of illegal immigrants are in our schools,” Walters said during the meeting. “We want to make sure that all that information is gathered so that we can make decisions on where resources go, where personnel goes, and we can continue to make sure that Oklahoma is leading the country in education.”
The language Walters used in his statement suggests the state agency is looking into the citizenship status of not only the child seeking enrollment, but the child’s parents’ citizenship status as well, differing from the proposed rules published to the department’s website.
Walters also highlighted a rule requiring schools to report any donations exceeding $18,000.
“If you all remember, about a year or so ago, we found out that a school had entered into an agreement with an organization that was attached to the CCP, and we didn’t want Communist China getting into our schools and beginning influencing the information that our kids were getting,” Walters said. “We think is very important for Oklahomans to know when schools get these donations, where the donations come from. Are there strings attached to those donations? It also helps us when we’re making decisions around resources.”
Walters also pushed new policies promoting patriotism, following an incident at Edmond North High School where a school district forced a student to remove an American flag from the student’s truck.
“We absolutely want our kids to be proud to be an American,” Walters said. “We’re now requiring districts to protect those rights. And so I think it’s of the utmost importance we continue to emphasize exceptionalism (and) American patriotism of our schools. I believe that that’s absolutely necessary after seeing some rogue districts take those positions.”
Toward the end of the meeting, board members entered into executive session to discuss and take action on over a dozen teacher certifications. Board members suspended the teacher certificates and sent applications to revoke the certificates of 11 teachers:
John King, a Sperry Public Schools teacher and coach;
Robert Park, a Sperry Public Schools teacher and coach who has been accused — along with another unnamed Sperry coach, according to Tulsa’s 2 News — of covering up a sexual assault incident between students in a locker room in October;
Richard Akin, the former principal of Sperry High School;
Michael Briglin, a former Putnam City Public Schools teacher who was arrested for alleged domestic abuse in 2023. Although a criminal probable cause affidavit was filed in Oklahoma County District Court, no charges appear to have been brought against him;
Gerald Pruitt, a former Altus Public Schools teacher who is facing a felony child abuse charge after he allegedly slapped and threw to the ground a 5-year-old;
Billy Schuster, a former Norman Public Schools teacher who was arrested by Edmond police in August and charged with numerous counts of distributing child pornography;
Rocky Flint, a former Flower Mound teacher who is being charged with assault and battery on a student;
Susan Hartman, an Ardmore Public Schools teacher charged with child abuse after allegedly abusing a developmentally disabled 7-year-old at the elementary school where she taught;
Candace Western, a Moore Public Schools teacher who resigned after allegedly bringing a registered sex offender to the elementary school where she worked.
https://nondoc.com/2025/01/28/amid-new-admin-rule-drama-walters-seeks-proof-of-parents-citizenship/
“protesters toting signs and draped in Mexican flags and traditional clothing began filling the front entrance”
You can leave now.
This isn’t your country.
With the board meeting scheduled to begin at 9:30 a.m., protesters toting signs and draped in Mexican flags and traditional clothing began filling the front entrance and grass lawn outside the Oklahoma State Department of Education building.
The more they do this, the bigger the case becomes to send them all home .
NBC — ICE to conduct major immigration operations in three cities per week (1/28/2025):
“Federal enforcement agencies are targeting three U.S. cities per week for large-scale immigration arrests, with Aurora, Colorado, to come next, three sources familiar with the planning told NBC News.
So far this week, Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents, along with other federal law enforcement agencies, have focused arrests in Chicago, in an operation that began Sunday, and New York City, where arrests began Tuesday. Those efforts will next shift to Aurora for an operation beginning Thursday morning, the sources said.
Aurora, about 40 minutes outside Denver, was a focus for Donald Trump during his presidential campaign as he said the city had been “infected by Venezuela,” referring to reports of criminal activity by a Venezuelan gang.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/ice-conduct-major-immigration-operations-three-cities-week-rcna189608
I live in Arapahoe County and I welcome this.
BTW, the globalist scum media can’t seem to figure out where Aurora is or how to describe it. “40 minutes outside of Denver” it’s directly east of, adjacent to Denver. Real Journalists also call it a “suburb” it’s a city of 400,000 population.
“40 minutes outside of Denver”
I noticed that too.
Aurora is definitely a suburb of Denver. Just like Lakewood but with more gangs. (also lakewood has close to the same population). No one thinks of Aurora as a “big city”. (even though it is in a way)
also aurora was gangland in the 80’s it’s gangland now. Same as Thorton
Why Canada’s old playbook for Trump 1.0 won’t save us this time
It’s natural – yet alone prudent – to go with what worked in the past when encountering similar circumstances in the present. This experience-informed “if/then” approach prevails throughout the biological world and even advises the algorithms of artificial intelligence. But success is contingent on correctly identifying how present circumstances map to those of the past – and Trump 2.0 has some important differences from Trump 1.0.
While there remain lessons to be learned from this experience, differences abound between the situations then and now. Mr. Trump is no longer a political neophyte constrained by the traditional political-economy of federal-state relations and the Republican Party establishment. The Trumpian political movement has established new parameters – and Canada must understand this new mathematics to calculate an effective response.
Start with federal-state relations. There are more than 30 U.S. states where Canada is the main export destination. Canada buys more American exports than what the U.S. exports to Denmark, France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the U.K. combined. Given these facts, most governors understand the importance of Canada. However, with Mr. Trump’s complete takeover of the Republican Party, there is also no red state governor who is going to risk the wrath of the emperor by standing up to him on an issue on which his position is clear.
The polarization of the American polity combined with the mandate Mr. Trump believes he has means he won’t give two-hoots about the cries coming from blue states. Indeed, he may even see economic harm as beneficial, particularly if it hurts the popularity of Democratic governors.
The result is that power has decisively shifted to the national level. Had this been the case during the last go around, Team Canada would’ve been able to orient its strategy around deep long-standing connections with Republican stalwarts. But the Grand Ol’ Party just isn’t what it used it be. Mr. Trump mounted a complete takeover and is firmly in control of the policy reins.
This time around, Canadian leaders have also been quick to publicly throw Mexico under the bus. This plays into Mr. Trump’s favour and weakens Canada’s hand. While our respective trade relations with the U.S. have important differences, both Canada and Mexico are staring down a neighbourhood bully and there is strength in numbers.
Our leaders have mistakenly demonstrated to Mexico that we’re not a reliable partner. The damage is done, and we must operate under the assumption that, unlike last time, Mexico will not be around to back us up again.
While it may feel satisfying to rattle the sabre by threatening tariffs, Canada is not going to win a trade war with the U.S. There is a fundamental mismatch on economic reliance that gets lost when all the statistics are thrown around by politicians. Ontario Premier Doug Ford’s call to respond with dollar-for-dollar tariffs misses the fact that Canada would need to introduce across-the-board tariffs that are much higher than 25-per-cent to make that happen. Given that Canada’s economy is more tied to trade, the double whammy of lost exports and higher import costs would ultimately hurt Canada more than the U.S.
Mr. Trump is transactional and he has laid down the terms of the negotiation: stop illegal migration and curtail Canada’s role in illicit fentanyl supply chains. It’s understandable that his approach has invoked confusion. Mr. Trump sees tariffs as a public policy Swiss Army knife: a multi-purpose tool that works not only for dealing with trade disputes but also revenue generation, public-health crises, combatting drugs, ending wars and overall international relations. It uses the threat of tariffs to not only correct real or perceived trade imbalances but – maybe even more – to obtain alignment from a “vassal state.”
Canada needs to meet Mr. Trump on his terms. He’s made clear that Canada’s border plan is insufficient. Similar to the aluminum and steel tariffs of his last mandate, Mr. Trump sees Canada as a weak link or back door being used by others. Our leaders and officials need to piece together the puzzle and determine where Mr. Trump’s desire for policy alignment serves our overall interests. His recent designation of cartels as terrorist organizations may offer some clues for dealing with fentanyl.
The U.S. has long-standing bipartisan concerns over what it sees as lax anti-money-laundering rules here. A Trump-team policy thinker, David Asher (who has been credited with drafting the plan to use market access threats to deal with fentanyl), has called Canada out on how illicit financial networks in this country feed into the fentanyl crisis. Dealing with this is in Canada’s interest, and not just as a means to avoid tariffs.
Our country is being roiled by a crisis, catalyzed by forces emanating from the U.S., but made worse by our inability to find composure and think strategically. We need to narrow our focus for this particular predicament and target the issue at hand. There will undoubtedly be more crises over the next four years, especially since Mr. Trump looks to overturn the global trade system. Therefore, we need to keep our powder dry and use the right tools at the right moment. Unlike last time, retaliatory tariffs are not the right tools for this moment in history.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-why-canadas-old-playbook-for-trump-10-wont-save-us-this-time/
We had our first bust in my little burg:
https://www.reporterherald.com/2025/01/28/loveland-man-detained-by-ice-federal-agents-tuesday-morning__trashed/
“The Colorado Rapid Response Network — a statewide group committed to “responding to raids, deportation and any … (ICE) activity happening across the state in our communities, according to its website”
Where does their funding come from?
Does it seem like Mr Market is on a sla ride to the bottom of the CR8R?
Slow ride
Things are getting a little rocky as the yield on the 10yr Treasury is increasing.
NVDA is sliding, apparently because DJT wants to limit its sales of chips used for AI to China.
Not a great day / week so far for speculators whose only mantra was “To the moon Alice!”
Remember when the NASDAQ crashed by 80% twenty years ago? I do.
Trump says he’ll use Guantanamo Bay to detain illegal immigrants
President Donald Trump announced plans to sign an executive order instructing the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to begin preparing a 30,000-bed immigrant detention facility at Guantanamo Bay.
Trump made the surprise declaration during the signing of the Laken Riley Act at the White House Wednesday afternoon to prepare a migrant facility at the Guantanamo Bay detention camp, which was used to detain suspected terrorists during the George W. Bush administration.
“Today, I’m also signing an executive order to instruct the Departments of Defense and Homeland Security to begin preparing the 30,000-person migrant facility at Guantanamo Bay. Most people don’t even know about it,” Trump said.
“We have 30,000 beds in Guantanamo to detain the worst criminal illegal aliens threatening the American people,” Trump said. “Some of them are so bad, we don’t even trust [their home] countries to hold them because we don’t want them coming back. So we’re going to send them out to Guantanamo.”
The executive action, Trump said, would bring the United States “one step closer to eradicating the scourge of migrant crime in our communities, once and for all.”
The move is expected to be met with pushback from immigrant rights groups and Democratic lawmakers.
Several details of Trump’s plan remain unknown, such as the criteria for selecting detainees, how long they will be held, and under what conditions. Nonetheless, Trump says using Guantanamo is necessary as he cracks down on illegal immigration.
“Today’s signings bring us one step closer to eradicating the scourge of migrant crime in our communities once and for all,” Trump said. “It’s just an unforced error that we even have to be doing this.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/politics/government/trump-says-he-ll-use-guantanamo-bay-to-detain-illegal-immigrants/ar-AA1y56Eo
“Some of them are so bad, we don’t even trust [their home] countries to hold them because we don’t want them coming back. So we’re going to send them out to Guantanamo.”
If this is the case, we need to resurrect Augusto Pinochet airlines featuring C-130s. Time to, “chum the waters!”
[An opinion from the WSJ …]
Foreign Lessons in the Perils of DEI and Affirmative Action.
The Trump administration saves the U.S. from going the way of India, South Africa and Malaysia.
https://archive.ph/BM3yi#selection-5741.0-5745.95
Amid a vigorous start to a second term, the Trump administration’s assault on affirmative action and the diversity, equity and inclusion industry stands out.
In a series of executive orders, President Trump reversed dozens of Biden decrees, including one “advancing racial equity” that Mr. Biden signed on his first day as president. Mr. Trump banned DEI programs and ended the nearly 60-year-old practice of enforcing affirmative action for federal contractors. The administration has also suggested that it will launch “civil compliance investigations” of corporations, foundations and universities, as part of its effort to restore “merit-based opportunity” to America.
The writer Christopher Caldwell calls the Trump administration’s assault on affirmative action “the most significant policy change of this century.” There are many reasons to hope that it succeeds. Group-based quotas, whether explicit or de facto, tend to breed resentment in those who feel unfairly excluded and self-doubt among beneficiaries, who wonder if their success is unearned. Amid intense technological competition with China, the U.S. must ensure that its universities and research labs can recruit the most talented people based on competence alone.
Mr. Trump deserves credit for helping America dodge a bullet. As Thomas Sowell pointed out in his 2004 book, “Affirmative Action Around the World,” most countries first roll out preferences and quotas as a temporary expedient, but over time they “turn out not only to persist but to grow.” At some point, they become virtually impossible to extirpate.
Take India, which in 1950 pioneered caste-based quotas in government and higher education to help historically downtrodden groups. Initially, these quotas were limited to 17.5% of available positions. Over the decades, Indian politicians expanded the program. Today, only 4 in 10 federal government jobs and seats in federally funded universities are decided by open competition. The rest are filled using quotas. Both the main opposition Congress Party and several state governments want to expand quotas. No politician dares oppose this publicly.
Instead of embracing the principle of colorblindness after the end of Apartheid in 1994, South Africa erected an elaborate system of laws and regulations to benefit the black majority at the expense of the white minority. These include mandatory affirmative-action programs meant to compensate for past discrimination and a law that requires businesses to comply with a score card that rates their compliance with various “empowerment criteria.” The country even has special “equality courts.” Last week, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa signed a bill that will allow the government to seize land without compensation. The likely target: white farmers.
Since 1971, following riots between ethnic Chinese and Malays, Malaysia has followed a “New Economic Policy” designed to lift up the bumiputera, or indigenous Malay Muslim, people. It systematically privileges the country’s dominant ethnoreligious group in everything from education and government jobs to business contracts and housing.
The details of affirmative-action policies in India, South Africa and Malaysia vary, but all have led to similar outcomes. Each of these countries faces a brain drain as some of its most talented and driven people head for the exits. A large chunk of Malaysia’s well-educated ethnic Chinese have settled in Singapore, Australia, the U.K. and North America. The ethnic Chinese proportion of Malaysia’s population has fallen from 38% in 1957 to 20% today. In the U.S., Silicon Valley is filled with Indian and South African engineers and tech entrepreneurs who see America—not the countries of their birth—as the promised land.
In South Africa, infrastructure is crumbling and the unemployment rate for blacks was nearly 40% last year. Malaysia, despite its natural resources, trails neighboring (and brutally meritocratic) Singapore in per capita income. In a 2021 essay, University of Tasmania Professor James Chin wrote that Malaysia’s New Economic Policy has “poisoned ethnic and personal relations in a way that now defines the country’s polity and economy.”
Mr. Trump may help the U.S. avoid a similar fate, and his actions are in keeping with the American spirit. In a phone interview, Richard Hanania, author of “The Origins of Woke: Civil Rights Law, Corporate America, and the Triumph of Identity Politics,” points out that affirmative action was always unpopular in the U.S. “I think there’s something about American exceptionalism here,” he says. “The arc of American law and American history goes against race-based governance.”
[Another opinion from the WSJ …]
Polls: Americans Like Swamp-Draining.
… and Americans seem to be getting more optimistic about the direction of the country.
https://archive.ph/rI6tp
There’s much media reportage on the perils of paring the Washington bureaucracy, but Americans like the idea. There are also early signs that the dawn of the second Trump administration just might be making Americans more optimistic about the country’s future.
This week the Reuters/Ipsos poll finds that a full 61% of U.S. adults support “downsizing the federal government,” while just 35% are opposed to the idea.
Not all of Mr. Trump’s specific ideas for restraining Washington are as popular, and of course it can get tricky when considering budgetary diets for specific programs. But given the outraged reaction in media circles to his early executive orders, some readers may be surprised to learn, for example, that a plurality of Americans favor “imposing a hiring freeze on all federal agencies,” according to Reuters/Ipsos.
Pretty soon we could be talking about real money in taxpayer savings. The Journal’s Kimberley Strassel notes that “the federal government hires a stunning 200,000 to 300,000 people each year.”
And there seems to be little doubt about whether such savings are preferable to demanding more contributions from American taxpayers. The latest Atlas Intel poll finds a 53% majority agreeing with the statement that “It’s better for the government to cut spending than increase taxes,” while just 33% are opposed. The poll also finds that by 44% to 42%, Americans say “the state should respect a spending ceiling in order to avoid increasing national debt, even if that means less social assistance.”
Meanwhile in the latest Economist/YouGov poll, respondents who favor “requiring all federal workers to work in person rather than remotely” outnumber those who oppose the idea by 11 percentage points—48% to 37%. Could anyone guess this result by reading random dispatches on the subject in the establishment press?
Obviously it’s not just media folk who are having trouble containing their grief over the possibility that there might be fewer positions in the federal bureaucracy. Even a generous buyout offer for federal workers—if they agree to resign now, they’ll get paid through September—seems to be sending one of the Tims who recently ran for vice president into hysterics.
Natalie Andrews and Meridith McGraw report for the Journal on the buyout offer to federal workers:
The Office of Personnel Management posted the email with a headline “Fork in the Road.” The subject was the same one used by Elon Musk in November 2022 when he purchased Twitter, now called X. Musk told employees to commit to long hours at high intensity or leave the company. He is working with Trump on streamlining the federal government through what is called the Department of Government Efficiency, or DOGE.
White House officials estimated that the in-office requirement will prompt 5%-10% of federal employees to quit, and they said it could lead to $100 billion in savings annually. They provided no information about how they reached that estimate.
Sen. Tim Kaine, a Virginia Democrat who represents tens of thousands of federal workers, cautioned against taking the offer, saying that Trump could renege on the plan.
“If you accept that offer and resign, he’ll stiff you just like he stiffed the contractors,” he said on the Senate floor, referencing people who have accused the Trump Organization of hiring them and not paying. “He doesn’t have any authority to do this. Do not be fooled by this guy.”
No authority? There could hardly be a sturdier Beltway precedent than the practice of presidents allowing federal workers to get paid while performing no measurable work.
The savings could be significant if numerous government employees decide to join the real economy. The Journal reporters note:
A Pew Research survey in November 2024 found the federal government employed just over 2.4 million people, when the military and Postal Service are excluded.
Mr. Kaine and his fellow Democrats may be afraid of what would happen to their agenda if it’s proven that America doesn’t need 2.4 million civilian federal employees. What if Mr. Trump has decided to see just how efficient Washington can be? A true test carries risks for both sides. Republicans will be held accountable by voters if popular services are not provided and Democrats will be held accountable if it’s clear they have been overcharging taxpayers for all the government we’ve been getting.
Hanging over this Washington debate is the fact that Trump adviser Elon Musk cut 80% of Twitter’s staff and the service now known as X not only continued to function, but now provides the added consumer benefit of more open dialogue. How many federal agencies operate more efficiently than pre-Musk Twitter?
Nearly half a million civilian federal employees still sounds like a fairly large bureaucracy. Maybe it would even serve our citizens better.
Scary as all of this may be to Mr. Trump’s adversaries in politics and the press, Americans appear to be starting to enjoy a very different set of feelings. It’s too early to call it a trend but the most recent polls from both the Economist/YouGov and Rasmussen Reports show a sudden bump in the percentage of Americans saying the country is on the right track. Overall sentiment is still very negative—as it’s been for years—but results have brightened a little lately. Stay tuned.
Noem freezes grants to NGO groups: ‘Won’t spend another dime’ to help ‘destruction’
Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem announced Wednesday the department has stopped all grant funding to nonprofits that operate outside of government control, saying they have been “perverted into a shadow government” that feeds illegal immigration.
Noem said some non-governmental organizations (NGOs), which receive millions in federal grants, have been facilitating illegal immigration by helping aliens cross the U.S. border.
“Many of these NGOs actually have infrastructure and operations set up in Mexico, on that side of the border, and are telling those illegal immigrants to come to them, and they will get them across the border,” Noem said on Fox News Channel’s Will Cain Show. “So they’re not just operating in the United States, they’re operating outside the United States to help make it easier for those who want to break our laws.”
The first step to curbing the issue is to freeze the funds, reevaluate them, and make sure taxpayer dollars are going toward safe causes, she said.
“I think people are curious [to see how] grants that are given out by federal agencies [are] utilized,” Noem said.
Until an evaluation is completed, Noem said the department is “not spending another dime to help the destruction of this country.”
She added not all NGOs are what they appear to be, and some could be a risk to national security.
“When somebody said NGO to me, I thought that [was] a nonprofit telling somebody about Jesus or spreading faith and salvation…,” Noem said. “Then I realized over the years, it’s been perverted into this shadow government.”
Noem explained that NGOs create an entity to use taxpayer dollars, funding an operation the federal government cannot legally implement itself.
Recently, she said they have been used to undermine the country’s national security.
Approximately 1.5 million NGOs operate in the U.S., according to the U.S. Department of State.
In 2024, the U.S. spent more than $380 million on sheltering and service programs for illegal immigrants.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/sec-noem-says-homeland-security-will-freeze-grants-to-non-governmental-organizations/ar-AA1y5AJj
The 5 minute video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GhnWXrs1M1I
Follow the money. And name the names. Keep #Noticing
Immigrants Completely Abandon Job Sites As Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Begins
The Jimmy Dore Show
4 hours ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ShBZxGrvVJs
14 minutes.
“They’re afraid of American workers getting power” 10 minutes into the video. Sounds about right…
‘Our mortgage is under 2%, and it’s hard to justify giving that up until we decide to downsize or leave California and use the built-up equity to buy the next property in cash.’
Welcome to the Hotel California.
‘Sales of existing homes last year hit the lowest level since 1995, according to the National Association of REALTORS. Yep, the annual pace of U.S. existing home sales hasn’t been this soft since Microsoft launched Windows 95…Home builders are having a hard time finding buyers, and they’re upping discounts and perks in an attempt to sell more. Even with unusually high inventory levels of newly-built homes, a boon to the residential real-estate market as resale homes are in short supply’
One of these things is not like the other.
Democrats’ brutal poll problem.
Two recent polls show the party is more unpopular than it’s been in nearly two decades.
https://archive.is/XS00k#selection-533.0-537.87
The Washington Post – It’s been evident for some time that the Democratic Party isn’t in a great place. It’s somewhat normal for that to be the case after a disappointing election.
But the scale of Democrats’ current problems is beginning to come into focus. And it’s both stark and sobering for the blue team.
A new Quinnipiac University poll released Wednesday had this stunning finding: While Americans were about evenly split in their views of the Republican Party (43 percent favorable to 45 percent unfavorable), negative views of the Democratic Party outpaced positive ones by 26 points — 31 percent favorable to 57 percent unfavorable.
That’s not only a huge imbalance, it’s also an unprecedented one.
In fact, Democrats’ 57 percent unfavorable rating is their highest ever in Quinnipiac’s polling, dating back to 2008, while the GOP’s 43 percent favorable rating is its highest ever.
And while this is just one poll, it builds on evidence from other polls.
Tracking polling from YouGov, for instance, also shows the Democratic Party more unpopular than at any point since January 2017.
Similarly, a CNN poll last week showed a record-low 33 percent of Americans had a favorable view of the party.
That’s four points lower than in any CNN poll since 2006. And if you expand the data set to earlier CNN, USA Today and Gallup polls, it’s the party’s worst since at least 1992.
The CNN poll also featured some more detailed questions that point to Democrats’ problems rallying the troops:
Fully 32 percent of Democratic-leaning voters say that the last few years in politics have made them feel “less like a part of the Democratic Party.”
Nearly 6 in 10 Democratic-leaning voters say the party needs either “major changes” or “to be completely reformed.”
Just 49 percent of Democratic-leaning voters say they expect the party to be at least “somewhat effective” in limiting GOP policies that they oppose. Only 7 percent expect it to be “very effective.”
This doesn’t necessarily mean, of course, that Democrats will be in the wilderness for years to come.
For instance, they saw a similar — if less pronounced — dip after another disappointing presidential election in 2016. They wound up having a series of good elections over the next six years. Republicans also won big in the 2010 midterms despite starting the election cycle much more unpopular as a party.
Democrats also didn’t lose by that much in 2024, despite both them and President Donald Trump acting like they did. Trump’s popular vote win ranks on the smaller side historically, and Democrats gained a seat in the House and won most swing-state Senate races.
Republicans have been worse off than Democrats currently are. Both the Quinnipiac poll and the CNN poll showed the GOP was more unpopular in the first year of Trump’s first term than Democrats are today. Back then, the GOP’s unfavorable rating crested in the 60s, and its favorable rating sometimes dropped into the 20s.
Two things are compounding problems for Democrats. One is that they seem to have considerably less fight in them or leadership than they did after the 2016 election. The second is that the Republican Party is suddenly looking like a more viable option for voters, having made significant gains with groups like Hispanic voters in 2024.
That doesn’t mean it will always be thus. But it does suggest Democrats have their work cut out for them.
‘The couple didn’t find quite what they wanted and were leaning toward building a home when they discovered that Pulte Homes was ready to sell its model in a Powell community for $840,000. ‘Nothing compared to this house. All we had to do was wait a few months for Pulte to move’
840k in Ohio Julie? You got schlonged.
‘Scott, known around the coast as the ‘crazy suit realtor’, said ‘I’ve seen a special assessment range from $1,000 to $150,000 for owners of the complex. When you run into that, you have more people who need to sell their units because they don’t have $150,000 in their savings account’
That’s why it’s a good thing Joshua, that they can always sell. Which as a UHS you already knew.
‘There seems to be an appetite to get the deal done,’ he said. In December, Mr. Bibby notes, many sellers in the condo segment cancelled their listings after failing to find a buyer, yet data show inventory was still 33 per cent higher than in December, 2023. This dynamic concerns him, because the recent spurt of buying could be swamped by new supply in the coming weeks. ‘We’ve had all these units come off and we’re still up 33 per cent. Where did these units disappear to and when do they come back on?’
I’d be worried too Chris, except I believe Tiff when he said the lending was sound. At the time he was saying that.
‘For me as a buyer’s agent, it’s a positive sign that the power has shifted back a little bit towards buyers’
That’s the spirit Zoran, there is a silver lining to every a$$ pounding!
The Desperate Phone Calls Are Picking Up (GTA Condo Real Estate Market Update)
Team Sessa Real Estate
47 minutes ago TORONTO
This episode looks at the current GTA Condo Markets – Toronto, York Region & Peel Region for the week ending Jan 22, 2025. We also discuss how agents create a sense of desperation for their clients that’s not always reflected in their prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBybZy6HWi0
12 minutes.
USDA inspector general forced from office after rejecting firing by Trump administration
The inspector general of the U.S. Department of Agriculture, Phyllis Fong, was escorted out of her office Monday after refusing to comply with her firing by the Trump administration, according to Reuters.
Sources told the outlet that Fong intended to stay after the White House terminated her, stating she believed the administration did not follow proper protocols.
Reuters also reviewed an email Fong sent to her colleagues saying the independent Council of the Inspectors General on Integrity and Efficiency “has taken the position that these terminations notices do not comply with the requirements set out in law and therefore are not effective at this time.”
Some members of Congress have suggested that firing 17 independent inspectors general violated federal oversight laws.
The Washington Post, which first reported the firings, said that many were appointees from Trump’s first term.
Democratic Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts called Trump’s actions “a purge of independent watchdogs in the middle of the night.”
“Inspectors general are charged with rooting out government waste, fraud, abuse, and preventing misconduct,” Warren posted on X. “President Trump is dismantling checks on his power and paving the way for widespread corruption.”
President Donald Trump spoke to reporters aboard Air Force One after the firings were reported and defended the move saying, “it’s a very common thing to do.”
https://local12.com/news/nation-world/usda-department-of-agriculture-inspector-general-phyllis-fong-forced-from-office-after-rejecting-firing-by-president-donald-trump-administration-white-house-council-of-the-inspectors-general-on-integrity-and-efficiency-federal-oversight-laws
Wasn’t the Fed supposed to cut rates today?
https://www.cnn.com/2025/01/29/economy/fed-rate-decision-january/index.html
Business / Economy
Key takeaways from the Fed’s decision to pause interest rate cuts
By Bryan Mena, CNN
5 minute read
Updated 4:56 PM EST, Wed January 29, 2025
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell speaks during a news conference on January 29 in Washington, DC.
Jacquelyn Martin/AP
Washington CNN —
The Federal Reserve on Wednesday hit pause on interest rate cuts in its first key decision of President Donald Trump’s second term.
It’s a move that’s likely to stoke tensions between the central bank and the new president, who has argued that he should have some say in Fed policy.
Central bank officials opted to keep borrowing costs at a range of between 4.25% and 4.5% as they await further progress on inflation, which showed signs of stalling out late last year. Fed officials reached that conclusion in their latest policy statement, omitting a phrase included in the previous statement that said inflation has “made progress.”
Officials have said recently that they’re still confident inflation will eventually reach their 2% target, but the central bank won’t be able to declare victory anytime soon. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said in his post-meeting news conference that an unexpectedly weakening labor market or inflation slowing “more quickly than anticipated” would put rate cuts back on the table.
“We feel like we don’t need to be in a hurry to make any adjustments,” Powell said.
…
Stock Market Today: Dow falls nearly 140 points, S&P 500 and Nasdaq end lower, bond yields rise as Fed pauses rate cuts, signals no hurry to resume
Investors react to the Federal Reserve’s policy decision and Chairman Jerome Powell’s press conference, as well as results from Meta, Microsoft and Tesla.
Last Updated:
Jan. 29, 2025 at 5:53 PM EST
…
https://www.marketwatch.com/livecoverage/stock-market-today-nasdaq-higher-s-p-and-dow-steady-ahead-of-fed-microsoft-meta-tesla-earnings
Economy
Trump: Fed failed to beat inflation, ‘I will do it’
The president’s post suggests that he intends to continue his criticism of Fed Chair Jerome Powell on social media, which became a regular feature during his first term.
US Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell gestures as he speaks at a press conference after the Monetary Policy Committee meeting in Washington, on December 18, 2024. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/Getty Images
By Victoria Guida
01/29/2025 05:37 PM EST
President Donald Trump on Wednesday slammed Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell for failing to beat inflation, arguing that he would succeed where the central bank chief had not.
Trump posted on Truth Social roughly two hours after the Fed announced it would hold interest rates steady to ensure that inflation returns all the way to 2 percent, but his comments didn’t seem to directly criticize that move. That was noteworthy because Trump has often called for lower interest rates to boost the economy, including during his first term as president.
…
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/29/trump-fed-failed-inflation-00201382
Eagles – After the thrill is gone 1975
https://youtu.be/pPzlaLrVSco?si=iotMJXcMxw4Ss2eP