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There’s Abundance Of Supply That Has Hit The Market

A report from the Post and Courier on South Carolina. “Home sales plunged across the Charleston region in December. Residential transactions plummeted 17 percent last month with 1,287 homes changing hands. ‘It wasn’t a bad year, considering 2017 was a record,’ said Wil Riley, CEO of Charleston Trident Association of Realtors.”

“The group said in its monthly report that ‘evidence is mounting that inventory will finally improve in 2019. This may apply some downward pressure on prices for beleaguered home buyers.'”

From The Real Deal on New York. “A new report from Douglas Elliman found that annual sales of condos and co-ops saw the largest year over year decline since the financial crisis. It was the fourth sales decline in five years.”

“The report also paints a picture of a market slowdown across the board in Manhattan in 2018. Elliman’s new report found that price trend indicators all declined year-over-year in 2018, as the legacy contracts inked when the market was booming finally closed.”

“For co-ops and condos, these metrics were all down in 2018 over the prior year: average sale price ($1.97M; -3.6%), average price per square foot ($1,658; -6.6%), and number of sales (10,229; -14.2%), while inventory was up 11.8 percent from the same time last year.”

From KFOR on Oklahoma. “It’s a new year, and it looks like its a great time for Oklahoma home buyers. At this point, luxury homes are going for a bargain because there are simply too many on the market.”

From Clark County Today. “Despite a recent downturn in the housing market overall, Clark County appears poised for continued growth according to MetroStudy of Seattle. Nationwide, and even in many places in the Portland Metro area, new home sales have been trending lower, year-over-year.”

“‘Quarter-over-quarter sales have continued to decline anywhere from four to 18 percent,’ says Todd Britsch, regional director . ‘That started back in, say the second quarter of ’16.'”

“‘There’s a certain number of buyers that continue to come into the marketplace, and Portland now is on a steady flow,’ he says. ‘Now, we are starting to see job reduction within Portland metro. Clark County seems to be adding jobs while Multnomah and Clackamas (counties) are losing jobs, year over year, and they’re also losing some labor force.'”

“Britsch says Clark County currently has 3,800 new construction single-family lots in the pipeline, representing a two-year supply at the current pace of building. ‘Ridgefield probably has the most right now of future and recorded lots. They’ve brought a tremendous amount of lots on in the last year,’ says Britsch. ‘Based on Ridgefield’s current absorption rate, there’s enough lots there to last until 2023.'”

“While Washington County has seen an influx of new developable lots, the median price for new construction there rose briefly to $600,000 last year before a slight correction. That may correct further as some of those homes begin to be built.”

“‘There’s abundance of supply that has hit the market within the last 6-7 months in regards to lot supply,’ says Britsch. ‘Consequently, what that’s going to end up doing, is there’s going to be downward pressure on lots, as far as pricing goes, which will keep homes in that affordable range.'”

From Roseville Today in California. “Real estate indicators are starting to shift in favor of home buyers as the housing market sets its sights on spring. Housing inventories are growing which gives buyers more choices. Increasing inventory is putting some pressure on home price growth as sellers now have more competition.”

“For home sellers, lower prices may not sound ideal. But with interest rates down and slowing price, more prospective buyers should be encouraged to get off the sidelines, shop and make offers.”

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This Post Has 28 Comments

  1. ‘Residential transactions plummeted 17 percent last month…‘It wasn’t a bad year, considering 2017 was a record’

    Again, record blow-out peaks followed by crater looks more like a bubble pop than correction.

  2. ‘Housing inventories are growing which gives buyers more choices’

    June 29, 2018

    “In West Roseville, many new homes are going up and new neighbors are moving in. Realtor Jose Chavez said new housing developments are popular for homebuyers, but recently they’ve been all too inviting for the those who are not welcome. ‘Since May we’ve had 13 construction site thefts. Twelve have been in the west side of town where all the homes are being built,’ said Rob Baquera with Roseville PD. Baquera made the connection between new homes and thefts. ‘This is a trend we see more and more just based on the fact there are a lot of homes on the market,’ Baquera said.”

    “Police said vacant homes are attractive to criminals. ‘Criminals are seizing the opportunity of not many neighbors being around. They are going into the houses in the middle of the night and pulling out appliances and selling them,’ Baquera said. But Chavez said there are ways to try to prevent this crime from happening. ‘Stage the home. Make it look like someone is living there,’ Chavez suggested.”

    http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10477

    1. “They are going into the houses in the middle of the night and pulling out appliances and selling them,’ Baquera said. But Chavez said there are ways to try to prevent this crime from happening.”

      Mr. Banker has an idea: Do what this guy did …

      Deputies Find Live Alligator Guarding 34 Pounds Of Pot In Castro Valley Home – CBS San Francisco
      https://sanfrancisco.cbslocal.com/2013/01/09/live-alligator-guarding-34-pounds-of-pot-in-castro-valley-home/

      Mr. Teeth. Lol. I would like to get one of these and use him as a loan collector.

      Mr. Banker and Mr. Teeth. Has a nice ring to it, no?

      1. Furthur research into the matter revealed this …

        8 unusual guard animals | MNN – Mother Nature Network
        https://www.mnn.com/earth-matters/animals/stories/unusual-guard-animals

        (snip)

        “Snakes are scary to most people, especially the infamously deadly cobra. So it is no wonder that releasing a cobra to guard something valuable has been a strategy on more than one occasion.

        “In 1978, the Skansen Zoo in Stockholm decided to release a cobra to protect the zoo from an epidemic of animal thefts. Or at least, that’s what the zoo told the press.

        “‘We let the cobra loose among the cages, glass cases and fish tanks when we close at night. First thing in the morning, I put it back in its case… The king cobra measures more than 14 feet. If you get a bite in a sensitive place, like in a vein, you’re dead within 15 minutes.’

        “Needless to say, after this press release the thefts stopped.

        “Meanwhile, a cobra was also used to protect a 393 carat sapphire. In 1991, the New York Times reported:

        “A poisonous cobra is guarding the world’s largest sapphire at an international gem exhibition in the Sri Lankan capital, Colombo. ‘We thought this would be a better security system than anything else,’ a spokesman for the Sri Lanka Gem Corp. said. The snake, in a glass cage, is protecting two gems worth 45 million rupees ($1.1 million). The stones, which belong to the corporation and are not for sale, are a 393-carat star sapphire – the world’s largest – and a 103-carat star sapphire, the spokesman said.”

        Needless to say (but I will say it anyway), I like it.

        😁

      2. Speaking of Mr. Teeth.

        A guy walks into a Bar with an alligator on a leash and asks the Bartender…

        Do you serve Realtors here?

        The Bartender responds…

        Of course we serve Realtors here.

        The man says good, I’ll have a beer and give me a Realtor for my alligator.

        PS

        Feel free to exchange the Realtor for a Lawyer.

  4. https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-new-home-sales-show-substantial-rebound-in-november-20190131-00874

    ‘In its first report since the end of the government shutdown, the Commerce Department showed new home sales in the U.S. rebounded sharply in the month of November. The report released Thursday showed new home sales soared by 16.9 percent to an annual rate of 657,000 in November’

    ‘Despite the substantial monthly increase, the Commerce Department noted new home sales in November were still down by 7.7 percent compared to the same month a year ago.’

    ‘The report also said the median sales price of new houses sold in November was $302,400, down 7 percent from $325,100 in October and down 11.9 percent from $343.400 in November of 2017.’

    Another report said this price was a two year low. So if you bought a new shack since, you are fooked.

    1. ‘The report also said the median sales price of new houses sold in November was $302,400, down 7 percent from $325,100 in October and down 11.9 percent from $343.400 in November of 2017.’

      Sounds like the bubble popped at some point in 2018. An 11.9 percent price decline seems pretty steep, and this is before the new tax law took effect.

    2. Google “new home sales” and all you get is “Sales soar 17%!” headlines. Nothing about a 12% annual price decline.

      If the stock market goes down 12% then the sky is falling. But the vast majority of Americans are way more invested, with high leverage, in their homes.

      REIC is working double time on this one!

    3. 1) Not sure if gov’t. ever reported Dec. ’18 NHS or not (?), but don’t really need ’em (hint: most gov’t. = non-essential gov’t.). Here’s a link to Redfin data.
      https://www.redfin.com/blog/2019/01/nov-dec-new-home-sales.html
      Real Estate News & Analysis
      New-Home Sales Saw Double-Digit Drops to Close Out 2018
      Written by Dana Olsen on January 22, 2019
      Here’s a look at the annual drop in single-family new-home sales (seasonally adjusted) across the country in the final two months of last year:
      Region Nov. 2018 Dec. 2018
      Midwest -2% -13.4%
      Northeast -12.3% -16.1%
      South -2.9% -10.3%
      West -8.6% -13.4%
      National -4.6% -11.6%

      2) Charts link
      https://tinyurl.com/y9s29ktw
      – New Home Sales Median Price Year over Year (%)
      – New Home Sales down 7.7% year over year and long-term trend continues to point lower.
      – New Home Sales down 8% from peak
      – New home sales median price fell 12% year over year
      – New Home Sales median price is off 12% from the peak in November 2017

      Scooby says “ruh roh!” Shaggy says “zoinks!” Velma says “jinkies!” And Daphne says “jeepers!” But what does [the Fed] say?

      “”The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost.” – Ben Bernanke, 11/21/2002

      “At this juncture, the impact on the broader economy and financial markets of the problems in the subprime market seems likely to be contained.” – Fed chairman, Ben Bernanke, Congressional testimony, March, 2007

      “I Don’t See a Financial Crisis Occurring ‘In Our Lifetimes” – Janet Yellen, 06/27/2017

      Keep calm and party on.

  5. Cracks in zero down…

    “Starting tomorrow Ginnie Mae has restricted loanDepot’s ability to securitize VA mortgages because of apparent churning of recent originations. loanDepot cannot include any VA loans in Ginnie Mae I or Ginnie Mae II multi-issuer securities. loanDepot reportedly will still be an approved Ginnie Mae issuer and can still put VA loans in Ginnie Mae II custom pools and Federal Housing Administration and U.S. Department of Agriculture Rural Housing Service Loans in all eligible Ginnie Mae pool types.”

        1. That’s the thing – you find out the Dallas pension fund is riding on real estate bubbles and shoddy lending.

  7. “U.S. banks working to guard seniors from rising financial abuse”

    In other news, foxes volunteer to help guard hen houses.

    Wolves aid sheepherders in tending sheep.

    😁

    https://www.upi.com/Top_News/US/2019/01/31/US-banks-working-to-guard-seniors-from-rising-financial-abuse/1071548817454/

    (snip)

    “There are also a number of ‘professional’ scams, which seek to coerce elderly Americans into making fraudulent or unwise investments.”

    I like to think of these as my “Sharing The Wealth” programs.

    “These include pyramid schemes and pressuring seniors into taking out inappropriate ‘reverse mortgages’ or other loans and using equity that won’t mature until the victim is 90 or 100 years old.”

    Some of my all time favorites.

  8. Bloomberg: “The Treasury Department has increased its long-term debt issuance at quarterly refunding auctions to $84 billion, leading analysts to project new debt issuance will exceed $1 trillion for the second year in a row. Meanwhile, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note dropped to around 2.658%, and the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond fell to 3.017%.”

    Looks like more of the “same old, same old.”

    1. Winklevoss: If you can’t see bitcoin at $320,000, you just lack imagination
      Published: Feb 8, 2018 3:09 a.m. ET
      ‘We believe bitcoin disrupts gold’
      Getty Images
      Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss are still fired up about bitcoin.
      By Shawn Langlois
      Social-media editor

      ‘You know the criticisms are just a failure of the imagination.’

      That’s what Tyler, one of the Winklevoss twins, had to say to the skeptics — and there are many — who fail to see the massive potential for bitcoin (BTCUSD, -0.67%) and the rest of the crypto space.

      “Cryptocurrencies aren’t really important for human-to-human transactions… but when machines-to-machines trade economic value, they are going to plug into protocols like bitcoin and ethereum,” he explained to CNBC. “They are not going to open bank accounts at J.P. Morgan… those were invented by bankers before the internet existed. Trying to use them as payments or money on the internet is a square peg in a round hole at best.”

      https://www.marketwatch.com/story/winklevoss-if-you-cant-see-bitcoin-at-320000-you-just-lack-imagination-2018-02-07

      1. “…they are going to plug into protocols like bitcoin and ethereum…”

        That statement may actually hold some truth.

        But, what Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss just haven’t got a grip on [yet] is that the underlying blockchain technology is public domain open source and not “owned” by Bitcoin or anybody else.

        Yes, some protocol (maybe not even based on secure blockchain) will help reduce cost and speed up computer to computer transactions above and beyond what is commonly used now. (ie. Paypal).

        Further, *even if Bitcoin* turns out to be the electronic exchange medium of the future, it has nothing to do with crazed speculation to push up/down prices.

        Tyler Winklevoss and Cameron Winklevoss are getting their brand of “imagination” and common sense mixed up.

      2. When you consider one Sh!tcoin is “worth” 2.6 ounces of gold, you realize just how massive the Sh!tcoin bubble still is.

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