Real Estate Has Been In A Bubble For Some Time Now, But No Realtor Will Tell You That

A report from Florida Politics. “There were 168,717 single-family homes for sale in Florida last month, the Realtor.com report said. It’s the most homes for sale recorded in the Sunshine State in a single month. The last time any month came close to that was in July 2016. February’s home inventory in Florida is also a 40% jump from a year ago. Two markets on Florida’s Gulf Coast are gaining momentum for buyers, as prices are starting to head downward in Bradenton and Sarasota. The typical home for sale in Bradenton cost about $432,000 in January, a dip of about $100,000 from the previous year. Sarasota saw a similar decline in home prices settling in at about $575,000 for the average house in January. That’s a $150,000 decline from a year ago.”

From WTOP News. “Concerns about federal job cuts leading to a jump in homeowners deciding they need to sell are valid. During the week ending Feb. 22, the number of new listings to hit the market in the D.C. area jumped 20% from the previous week. There was another yellow flag worth keeping an eye on in the most recent weekly report from Bright MLS. Among active listings (homes already on the market last week) 7.5% had a price drop. ‘And that could be a sign that some sellers are feeling uncertain about where the market might be heading and they are eager to sell their home now before they have to make further price adjustments,’ said Lisa Sturtevant, chief economist at Bright MLS.”

The Washingtonian. “Roughly two decades ago, New Jersey Democratic Senator Andy Kim, walked into the building for the first time as a USAID intern—opening the doors to a career in public service that has seen him work at three federal agencies and in Congress. Kim is speaking out against the administration’s ongoing purge and on behalf of the government workforce. ‘I spent this weekend with a number of federal employees, because our kids are friends with each other. The parents are talking to me and just holding back tears, because they’ve got little kids. Elementary school kids. What are they going to do if they both lose their jobs? Some of them were couples that both are federal government employees, what are they going to do? They have a mortgage, it’s the middle of the school year, and it’s not like there’s a plethora of other jobs out there when so many people are losing their jobs simultaneously.'”

From NPR. “Jeannie Klein-Gordon’s path to landing a job as a plant researcher with the U.S. Department of Agriculture took her from coast to coast and more than a decade. She applied to a position as a research plant pathologist at the National Center for Agricultural Utilization Research in Peoria, Illinois — commonly called the Ag Lab. ‘I spent 11 and a half years getting to this position, and I got the position of my dreams,’ said Klein-Gordon. ‘This is my dream job.’ That ended Thursday, Feb. 13. Klein-Gordon’s employment was terminated by email at 10:05 p.m. She was 15 months into a standard three-year probationary period for government scientists. ‘We built a house here,’ Klein-Gordon said. ‘We now have to think about, what do we want to do? Do we want to stay here?'”

From Fortune. “The share of homes with price cuts was higher than in any February since 2016, reaching nearly 17%, according to Realtor.com. More sellers are also took their homes off the market, with home delistings in December spiking 64% from a year ago to 73,000, according to CoreLogic. Brett Johnson, a real estate investor and agent in Colorado, told Fortune he’s seen price reductions in the range of 3% to 5%, particularly in Denver and Boulder. Sellers who priced too high at the end of last year are ‘waking up to reality’ and dropping prices to stay competitive, he said. ‘Well-priced homes in desirable areas still move quickly, but anything sitting for too long gets discounted fast,’ said Johnson.”

“Evan Luchaco, a senior home loan specialist for Churchill Mortgage in Portland, Ore., said he’s seen home prices reduced by $5,000 to $10,000, but some homes that have been on the market for more than six months have dropped by as much as $150,000. But he anticipates a ‘more active’ homebuying season, so price cuts may become less common if mortgage rates drop further.”

WFMY TV in North Carolina. “Nearly four years ago, Dennis Puckett moved into a newly built home in the Huffman Point community, expecting a well-finished neighborhood. But for Puckett and other homeowners, the roads remain in disrepair, and the developer has failed to fulfill their obligations. Six years after the project started, the roads remain incomplete, with large potholes, cracks, and exposed manhole covers causing frustration for residents. ‘It’s like you have to dodge things in the morning when you leave so you don’t run over (potholes),’ Puckett said, referring to the unsafe road conditions.”

“The developer, Diamondback Investment Group, has not finished the crucial final layer of asphalt, leaving the streets a mess. Chunks of asphalt are missing, water drains lack proper caps, and some manholes protrude up to three inches above the road surface. ‘The roads are ugly, and like I said, it could be dangerous,’ Rebecca DeSalvo said. Despite multiple attempts by homeowners to contact Diamondback, including outreach through the homeowners’ association management company, Slatter Management, the company has not responded. In fact, Slatter Management reported that 98% of their emails to the developer went unanswered. The City of Burlington has also been trying to work with the developer to resolve the situation. However, despite their efforts, the city’s attempts to push Diamondback to complete the project have been unsuccessful.”

WHDH in Massachusetts. “The excitement of moving back home was quickly replaced by shock for Meghan McIntyre. ‘It’s like a never-ending nightmare,’ McIntyre said. The nightmare started last fall when McIntyre and her boyfriend decided to move back to Plymouth and purchase their own home. Months later, instead of moving into the house they bought, they are forced to rent an apartment while also paying the mortgage on a home they aren’t allowed to live in. Instead, someone else is living in the house. She believed the foreclosed property they purchased was vacant and abandoned. However, after she got the keys, the surprises started. Court records show the woman who was fighting to stay in the house was the daughter of the previous owner. She had lived in the house and cared for her mother until she died without a will. The woman told the court she never abandoned the house and was in the hospital when it was sold. The judge ruled she can stay in the house.”

“McIntyre learned all of this the hard way. Before she could even pursue an eviction, a judge ordered her to pay for a whole list of expenses. McIntyre said they had to pay to restore the floors after they ripped up the carpet to replace them. McIntyre is paying the utility bills and even had to put the woman up in a hotel and pay for her meals when the heat stopped working in the home. McIntyre said this is on top of her paying for the mortgage, HOA fees and rent. She estimated they are paying around $10,000 a month just in housing. McIntyre did file an eviction case. To avoid going to trial and dragging the wait out more, they reached an agreement. Under the deal, the woman gets to stay until the end of March and McIntyre has to pay her $7,500 to put towards a new apartment.”

KTNV on Arizona. “A couple in Phoenix is accused of breaking into a temporarily vacant home and stealing the identity of the homeowners to sell the home. D’Andrea Turner lived in the home for years with her now ex-husband, Keith. She told the Scripps News Group they raised their children in the home. She has since moved out, and Keith is a long-haul trucker — which left the home vacant for a period of time. In January, they learned their home had been sold with the title documents published on the Maricopa County Recorder’s Office website. The pair then ‘assumed the identity’ of the Turners after gaining access to documents inside the home and forging other documents, impersonating the Turners. ‘Squatters stole my house,’ D’Andrea said. ‘They actually moved in, posed as me, and sold my house. It feels so surreal. I feel like I’m in the Twilight Zone. Really, I didn’t even think something like this could happen.'”

NBC News on California. “The smell in Marcie Habell’s Altadena home nauseates her. A remediation company recommended taking it down to the studs to fully restore it. ‘I can be in my house for less than five minutes,’ said Habell, whose home is one of just two standing on her block. ‘It’s insane that it happened, and then on top of it, the way that insurance is behaving just compounds the tragedy.’ She has been quoted upward of $22,000 just for toxicity testing, and she expects rent could run $4,000 to $4,500 a month. That’s on top of paying her mortgage if her insurance company does not agree to cover the full cost, she said. ‘We are getting zero guidance from anyone for those of us who happen to have a standing home and are surrounded by the apocalypse,’ she said.”

“Michael Sollner, California’s deputy insurance commissioner, said in a statement that ‘smoke damage is real and insurance companies must investigate claims properly, not deny them outright or pressure homeowners into accepting less than they are owed.’ Rob Rhatt, an insurance analyst for Lending Tree, said it is ‘frustrating and not surprising’ that insurance companies are slow to handle smoke damage claims. ‘These catastrophic losses have really cut into their profitability,’ Rhatt said of insurance companies. ‘It’s not just cutting into their profitability where they’re making less money, but it’s actually threatening their solvency to the point where they’re losing money insuring homes in California.'”

KFMB in California. “On Tuesday, the San Diego City Council will discuss rolling back its ADU program, which allows property owners to build apartments in their backyards. Residents such as Encanto resident, Janets Klauber, shares with CBS 8 that the program is doing more harm than good. Klauber’s family has lived in Encanto for decades. She says ADUs are negatively transforming this neighborhood that she loves so much. ‘This neighborhood always gets shafted and the lack of equity is really, really discouraging,’ she said. ‘It’s grand theft in a horrific way,’ Encanto resident Lisa Becerra said. Becerra has watched ADUs pop up near her home. In 2023, ADUs made up roughly 20% of approved home construction in San Diego. ‘We have one that’s two houses down from us and it’s for 43 units. They’re going to do 22 ADU duplexes on one lot,’ she said. The City allows an unlimited number of ADUs to be built within one mile of major public transit stops.”

The Ottawa Citizen in Canada. “Court documents show the decline and fall of the Ashcroft Homes Group was hastened by an April 2018 fire at its large student residence then under construction in Little Italy. The fire would lead to years of acrimony and conflict between Ashcroft and its insurance company, Northbridge General Insurance, about how to settle the damage claim. The unresolved claim — the two sides were more than $21 million apart in their appraisals of the damage — ratcheted up the financial pressure on Ashcroft, which bore the cost of reconstruction on the 353-unit building known as Envie II. The company also suffered lost revenue due to the residence’s delayed opening. The dispute led to two lawsuits, worth a total of $60 million, that were still not settled when Ashcroft was forced into receivership by its major lenders in January 2025.”

“An interim receiver, KSV Restructuring Inc., now controls Ashcroft’s extensive real-estate portfolio, including the Envie I and Envie II student residences. Ashcroft badly needed money from the still-unsettled insurance claim. In an affidavit, filed as part of Ashcroft’s application for creditor protection, company founder David Choo said the firm developed ‘liquidity issues’ in recent years due to rising interest rates and a decline in occupancy rates. A majority of Ashcroft’s lenders subsequently told court they had lost faith in the company’s management and wanted it sent into receivership. ‘(Ashcroft) have become hopelessly overextended and are now caught in a market downturn that is not expected to be short-lived,’ Robert Gartner, a senior account manager with EQ Bank, the senior mortgage holder for the Envie II development, said in his affidavit.”

From ABC News. “Inspired Homes customers whose houses are still unfinished years past their contracted dates are calling on the Western Australian government to step in. About 70 of the Perth builder’s customers who signed contracts in 2020 have no idea when – or if – their houses will be complete. David Daff signed a contract with the company in September 2020. The house is far from liveable and Mr Daff says he rarely sees workers on site. ‘At this stage when I contact Inspired Homes, I’m effectively provided with no information,’ he said. Mr Daff said the impact of the delays had been devastating. ‘It’s very hard to put to words, you know, the situation that a lot of these customers are experiencing, nearing bankruptcy, having to pay for not only the home that they’re building, which they’re hoping to be their dream home, but temporary accommodation.'”

The Chosun Ilbo. “A wave of bankruptcies among small and mid-sized construction companies in South Korea has heightened fears of a crisis in the construction industry. As the cleanup of troubled real estate project financing (PF) loans accelerates, many builders are struggling to cope with rising construction costs and a surge in unsold inventory. Even major construction firms are selling assets to secure liquidity, fueling concerns that the construction sector may soon face a full-blown crisis. As of September last year, PF-related contingent liabilities in the industry reached 32.5 trillion won ($22.2 billion), posing a significant risk to financial stability. This burden is expected to increase further as financial authorities intensify efforts to resolve PF-related risks.”

“A financial industry source said, ‘Authorities have instructed that struggling real estate PF projects be sent to foreclosure or auction instead of extending loans, increasing the burden on construction firms that have provided guarantees.'”

The Print. “Indian real estate — barring luxury projects that cater to the non-price-conscious super-rich — has been in a bubble for some time now. But no realtor will tell you that. Still, both anecdotal evidence and hard data point in that direction. As of December 2024, India’s top eight cities have more than one million unsold real estate units. Clearly, people are not buying at unaffordable prices, especially when income growth remains uncertain. Rental yields, which measure rental income as a percentage of property value, are well below 4-5 percent in most cities, except for a few micro-markets. In fact, your money would earn better returns in a bank fixed deposit.”

“The scenario in the commercial real estate sector is even grimmer. Reliance Retail shut down 80 stores last year, just two years after opening them. Zara closed its high-rental store in South Mumbai because the business was not covering the costs. Commercial real estate is a truer bellwether of the property market, for, unlike ordinary home-hunting middle class individuals, it is business returns that drive prices, not sentimentality.”

“Here’s the clincher: if you truly believe the story about the continuing boom in property prices, the real estate index should reflect it, right? This is what I found. The S&P BSE Realty Index is 17.5 percent lower, yes lower, today than it was in July 2007. (You can see this in a Money Control chart when expanded to cover 2007-08). Sure, stocks too boomed and went bust during that period, but look where the stock indices are today with respect to 2007-08.”

“First, housing is not an investment for the middle class. You should buy only if you really plan to live in it and can afford the price. It is about the use value of the property, not its potential income value. Second, the property market in India is rigged, and this rigging happens largely in the land market, where politicians, bureaucrats, and builders work in league to prevent new supplies from entering the market before existing supplies are disposed of. Zonal and land-use restrictions give enormous discretionary power to those deciding building permissions. This means fresh land gets released only when previous supplies are used up. In short, the land supply squeeze is the only thing maintaining high prices despite an inventory pile-up. Unless you are a sharp-nosed land speculator, the assumption that you cannot lose in real estate over the long term is doubtful.”