The Third Guy Will Make Money, There Has To Be Bloodshed

A report from Fox 5 Washington DC. “Are D.C. home prices dropping? Some data indicates home prices have declined nearly 11 percent in the last 12 months. Parcl Labs, a real-time housing analytics group says the D.C. city housing market has declined nearly 11 percent year-to-date. That means the price per square foot is reportedly pushed to values not seen since five years ago, before the pandemic. Parcl Labs reports the data indicates D.C.’s downturn ‘started well before any recent federal workforce reductions.’ The group says the primary driver is D.C.’s high exposure to condos, which represent half of the total housing inventory.”

WCBD in South Carolina. “Nearly two weeks after a mandatory evacuation, Dockside Condominiums residents have yet to return to their homes. Harry Traulsen Jr. and his neighbors received a mandatory vacate notice on Feb. 27 to evacuate their homes within 48 hours. It came from the Dockside Association and the City of Charleston, noting the safety concerns surrounding the tower’s structural integrity. ‘A lot of people are totally stressed with this, some of them I’ve talked to they’re just besides themselves,’ Traulsen said. ‘The other side to that coin from a monetary aspect, you know if you have a big investment in the building – what is going to happen with that.'”

From WFLA. “‘We’re watching from the doorbell camera, and we see the water start coming up in the road in the driveway on the porch. We saw fish swimming around on our porch,’ said Byron Simpson, a South Tampa homeowner. When Simpson returned to his Westshore home following Hurricane Helene, a foot of water had flooded his home. Simpson quickly contacted his insurer and filed a claim. Then, the waiting game began. ‘I got an initial small payment,’ he said. ‘But that was only enough to get the drywall started and the door repair started.’ Simpson said he was forced to take out a line of credit from his retirement fund to continue the repairs. ‘I’m still fighting with the insurance company,’ Simpson said. For homeowners like Byron Simpson, who paid premiums year after year only to feel abandoned by their insurance company when they needed them most, it’s just not enough. ‘I think there’s a lot to be done investigating what’s happening with insurance company because we need to maintain a level of insurance in Florida and have them held responsible for the money is that they’re given to be honest brokers with that, and when the need arises to pay those monies back out,’ said Simpson.”

From Global News. “For Mary Ann and Mike Jeffries, Florida has been their warm-weather sanctuary for the past 15 years, a place where they could escape harsh Canadian winters. The couple, who live in Moncton, N.B., has decided to permanently leave their home away from home in Florida—a decision they never thought they’d make. A new policy from the U.S government will require foreign nationals visiting for more than 30 days to register with the government, as part of a broader crackdown on illegal immigrants. This includes Canadians who enter the U.S. by land. The new policy has made the couple feel like unwanted guests in the country they’ve called a second home for so long and already made the decision to sell their Florida home last year. Mike said he even witnessed someone yelling ‘Go home, Canadian!’ to a friend of theirs that was attending a group function.”

Curbed New York. “Tamara Peterson and her Pomeranian, Levi, are currently the sole occupants of the 58th floor of Brooklyn Tower. Peterson, an executive assistant for someone she describes as an ‘ultra-high-net-worth individual,’ moved into her one-bedroom, one-and-a-half-bath more than a year ago but still hasn’t taken a dip in the pool that wraps around the Guastavino dome or let Levi loose on the ‘world’s highest dog run’ on the 66th floor — neither has opened. Sure, there are delays, Peterson says, but Silverstein Capital Partners — which took over the building from JDS Development last summer in a $672 million foreclosure settlement — has been reasonable about the whole thing. ‘They know they’re not finished,’ she says.”

“Which is perhaps an understatement: It has been a rocky two years at Brooklyn’s first supertall with just 19 of the 143 condos selling in the 93-story neo-Gothic skyscraper, meaning near-empty elevator rides and an indefinite delay for residents eyeing a condo-board seat. As sales are set to relaunch in the spring under Silverstein’s watch, with Corcoran Sunshine taking over the project from Douglas Elliman Development Marketing, the question remains: Will anyone buy? ‘It always leaves a stench,’ Compass broker Maggie Marshall says of the early sales slump, which she, like nearly every other broker I spoke to, blames in large part on pricing. ‘If you look at the Brooklyn real-estate market as a whole, downtown Brooklyn is always kind of a fallback to other neighborhoods,’ says Brown Harris Stevens broker Ari Harkov. ‘It’s hard to take what is a fallback neighborhood and achieve a top-tier price.'”

Review Journal in Nevada. “The Las Vegas Valley has one of the highest rates of pending real estate deals falling through. Approximately 17.9 percent of all pending home sales in the valley in January fell through, which is the third highest rate in the country behind Atlanta (19.8 percent) and Orlando (18.2 percent), according to Redfin. Mike Roland, a Realtor in Henderson, said they are definitely feeling this on the ground right now. ‘It doesn’t take much to blow up a deal these days,’ he said. ‘Even the smallest issue can lead to a cancellation, especially with the lingering uncertainty surrounding the economy. On top of that, with inventory increasing, buyers have more choices and are becoming more selective. If there’s a rough inspection or appraisal issue, buyers aren’t sticking around like they would a couple years ago.'”

The LAist in California. “There’s not much left of 17126 Avenida de la Herradura in the Pacific Palisades’ Highlands neighborhood. ‘This is the first publicly listed and closed property in the Palisades,’ said Richard Schulman, standing outside what used to be a 2,500 square foot ranch house. ‘This closed for $1.2 million.’ Before the fires, Schulman estimates the property could have sold for upwards of $2.5 million. That $999,000 listing price meant Terri Bromberg, the seller, would likely be selling the home for less than the $1.5 million Bromberg and her late husband paid for it 20 years ago. Even with insurance, Bromberg would be taking a financial hit. But she had made her mind up that she was going to relocate. Selling the Palisades property for whatever it was worth would hopefully help restore some of the savings she had to deplete for the new house.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “The first vacant lot in Altadena went up for sale in late January. The listing promised ‘great opportunity to build’ after the Eaton fire destroyed the home previously on the site. A few weeks later came half a dozen more listings. Now the floodgates appear open. ‘There is so many to choose from,’ said Jeremy Hardy, a real estate agent with Craig Estates & Fine Properties. Lisa Haussler, a real estate agent with Coldwell Banker who lost her Altadena home in the fire, estimates those lots are selling for around two-thirds of what the land would have fetched before the fire. Berkshire Hathaway agent Kurt Frejlach said he had about four offers — all from developers — on a nearly 9,000-square-foot lot that he listed for $625,000. He said his client’s mom had moved out of the property before the fires into an assisted living facility and the family decided to sell after the house burned and ‘before the market is inundated with lots.'”

Willamette Week in Oregon. “Developer Walt Bowen had hot dice going for him when he swept away a square block of popular food carts on Southwest Alder Street and broke ground on his 35-floor tower. It was July 2019. Tech companies were flocking to Portland from inflated, overcrowded San Francisco. Bowen cashed in on the boom. After two huge wins, he was ready to gamble again. A new project, called Block 216, would be his most ambitious ever. It would have five floors of prime office space, a Ritz-Carlton hotel, and 132 Ritz-Carlton condominiums. A year later, the world locked down because of COVID-19. Hotels emptied. People fled urban condos for ranch houses in the suburbs. The sales haven’t been enough. It appears Bowen’s dream tower will instead be a 460-foot tombstone for his career (there’s a metal plaque with his picture on it already). ‘He sold almost everything and put it all on red,’ says one local financier who declined to be named.”

“‘It would have been tough in a good market, but then COVID hit,’ said Jim Mark, chief executive of real estate firm Melvin Mark. As many as 120 of the tower’s condos are currently sitting empty. If Ready Capital forecloses but can’t sell the building, it could end up empty, like so many other downtown buildings. But it’s likely that someone else will roll the dice if the price is right, says a hospitality expert who declined to be named. That person may get blown out, too. ‘The third guy will make money,’ the expert says. ‘Unfortunately, there has to be bloodshed.'”

Bisnow on Massachusetts. “Across Greater Boston, development sites that were planned for more than 10M SF of lab construction sit inactive. As life sciences vacancy continues to reach new highs, developers that had initially planned to build speculative lab projects now face a market that won’t support it — and dozens of projects have stalled. Some developers have sold these sites for substantial losses, while others have pivoted to build multifamily or office. And if the market doesn’t improve soon, experts foresee some owners of unbuilt sites falling into financial distress. ‘A lot of those projects did move forward and either completed or will be completed soon, but millions and millions and millions of square feet of that didn’t really materialize,’ Colliers Research Director Jeff Myers said.”

“‘It’s going to be very challenging for many people that paid a premium for a development site to be able to do much else with it,’ said Cushman & Wakefield Vice Chair Connor Barnes. ‘We’re still a little early in seeing what is going to happen with some of these sites that were sold for a premium because of the life science market.’ In February 2024, Alexandria Real Estate Equities sold a three-story office building in Andover for $3.9M, well below the $14.3M it paid for the property two years prior. ‘I would say the most distressed asset class, if everybody is being honest, is land, right?’ Newmark Capital Markets co-Head Robert Griffin Jr. said at a Bisnow event in January. ‘As we all are aware, the life science boom has become a bust at this point,’ Watertown City Council President Mark Sideris said during a city council meeting in February.”

CBC News in Canada. “For Valon Mcinnis, the idea of buying a home was always an exciting one. But this time around — with the uncertain see-sawing of Donald Trump’s tariff policy — her experience has been the opposite. ‘I thought it was going to be a lot more fun, but it’s more stressful than anything,’ she said at an open house in Ottawa on Sunday. Amidst all the unpredictability, Mcinnis — who recently sold her house — says buying a new one has her worried about inflated costs that could go along with it. Meanwhile, Besime Amjadi is struggling to sell her home and blames the fear that Trump’s threats have generated. ‘I feel like [the real estate market] is questionable right now because people are afraid,’ said Amjadi, who’s been trying to sell for a month. Amjadi thinks people expect the cost of homes to go down, and that has her worried about how much interest her listing will get.”

The Financial Post. “Canada’s most expensive housing markets took a beating when interest rates soared, and now they face a new challenge. United States President Donald Trump ‘s tariffs threaten to unleash more turbulence for real estate, but according to a new report by TD Economics, Vancouver is on firmer ground than Toronto to weather the blows. While average and benchmark Vancouver prices are down 6 per cent and 4 per cent, respectively, from pandemic peaks; in Toronto they have fallen 15 per cent. Condos are Toronto’s weak spot . The supply glut and weak demand that have put pressure on sales and prices have been exacerbated by declining population growth and the brewing tariff war, said Rishi Sondhi, an economist for Toronto Dominion Bank. ‘Although both markets could struggle this year, starting points matter in housing, and the GVA is on firmer footer than the GTA in terms of sales levels and price trends,’ said Sondhi.”

Business Today in India. “Bangalore’s real estate prices have surged dramatically in recent years. However, concerns are mounting that this rapid appreciation might not be sustainable. The Reddit user pointed out that post-COVID inventory shortages had driven prices up, but with construction now back in full swing, supply has surged — especially in outskirts like Sarjapur, Hoskote, Devanahalli, and Nelamangala. Unlike Mumbai, which is geographically constrained, Bangalore has room to expand in all directions, potentially leading to an oversupply. Investor-driven demand is also showing signs of weakening. Many recent buyers were NRIs and high-net-worth individuals purchasing homes as investments rather than primary residences. Now, with economic uncertainties and slowing job markets, some are looking to exit, flooding the market with resale properties.”

“Another expressed skepticism: ‘I’ve lived in Bangalore for 20 years and have never seen real estate prices go down. A correction sounds logical, but will it really happen?’ However, some believe a crash is inevitable. ‘Prices are overinflated. NRIs who paid in cash are slowing down, and Indian IT employees with massive home loans are in a risky position, especially in this AI-driven job market. At some point, sellers will outnumber buyers, and prices will fall,’ another user speculated.”

The Vietnam Express. “My parents sold their rural land for VND4.5 billion (US$176,300) and gave us money to move to the city, while the buyer now awaits a miracle to break even. I still remember the day the man arrived from HCMC, driving to our countryside home with a bag full of cash, eager to persuade my parents to sell. When he bought the land in 2022, he was certain prices would double or even triple. Stories like this were common during the land fever a few years ago. From 2019 to mid-2022, rural land prices skyrocketed. Plots that were once ignored, filled with rocks and overgrown weeds, suddenly became worth hundreds of millions or even billions of dong.”

“Investors rushed in, buying up large plots to subdivide and sell. Many local villagers became billionaires overnight by selling land they had once used to grow cassava and sweet potatoes. But the boom did not last. When the market cooled, only city and suburban properties retained value or appreciated, while rural land prices plunged by as much as 50%, with few buyers in sight. Those who bought at the peak can now do nothing but wait for prices to rebound, for another boom, or for a miracle. The man who purchased our land does not bother to visit anymore, instead asking my parents to keep an eye on it. Ambition in investment is fine, but chasing dreams of easy profits without a clear-headed strategy is a risky bet.”