Everything We’re Looking At Is $100,000 Less Than It Was Last Year
A report from CBC News. “Just before retiring in 2013, Brian Jamieson, who now lives in Brandon, Man., bought a home in Florida. But he says the sense of safety he and his wife once felt living in the U.S. crumbled after Trump’s election last year. The couple decided to put their park-model home up for sale in November, shortly after the results of the U.S. election. The couple closed the deal with a buyer this year, with the new owner taking possession about a week ago. ‘We took on a loss on the sale, and it was worth it just to leave,’ Jamieson said. ‘We didn’t know … how the political situation was going to flesh out.'”
“Betti and Ross Reinhardt dreamed of having a home in the United States where they could spend winters, but nine years after achieving that goal, the snowbirds are putting their Arizona property on the market, saying they feel pushed out by an unstable political climate — and they aren’t the only ones. The Manitoba couple bought a property in Mesa, Ariz., and remodelled it to make it their dream home. Tariffs, counter-tariffs and threats of annexation have brought a shift in hospitality for snowbirds like them, easily singled out on the streets by their Canadian licence plates, the couple said. ‘It’s nothing physical … but usually sharp comments, [like] ‘it’s time for you to leave’ or ‘you can go anytime you want,’ ‘north is your way home,’ Ross said. Among their friends, the Reinhardts aren’t the only Canadians listing a winter home, with others talking about selling too.”
The Miami Herald. “A secretive quasi-governmental condo blacklist is growing exponentially, making it difficult for owners in scores of troubled buildings in Miami and South Florida to sell or get loans for repairs even as their associations face a fiscal and time crunch to meet stringent new state safety regulations. Owners in those buildings, which typically end up on the list because of financial, insurance or critical maintenance issues, will find it nearly impossible to sell to buyers seeking conventional mortgage financing. ‘I think it’s the perfect financial storm for condominiums in Florida,’ said Jake Marcus, a Miami attorney for Allcock Marcus . ‘There is just a lot happening in Florida with all the new requirements.'”
“Non-conforming mortgages that don’t need Fannie or Freddie backing are available, but can be significantly more expensive and harder to qualify for. His firm has been able to obtain the Fannie Mae list thanks to a source, but doesn’t have access to Freddie Mac information, he said. Typical reasons why the corporations won’t back mortgages at a condo include inadequate reserves or insurance, structural or construction issues, too many delinquencies, and too high a percentage of rentals. Another common factor is being set up as a condo-hotel, because that can raise questions about financial stability or commercial uses that make a building ineligible for Fannie Mae-backed financing.”
“Another repercussion, he and other condo experts say, is that the financial pressure on condo associations to sell in bulk to developers will probably increase. Though some prominent sales have happened in Miami and South Florida, the floodgates haven’t opened yet because bulks purchases remain a hard deal to pull off, Marcus said. That’s in part because a small percentage of owners can effectively veto a sale under Florida condo laws.”
From WAVY. “Pending home sales are down in the Virginia Beach metro area, according to new data released by Realtor.com. Experts believe part of the reason for the drop in pending home sales in the Hampton Roads area is because of federal workforce layoffs. The Hampton Roads region has seen the second-biggest decline in pending home sales in the country behind only Jacksonville, Florida. Since Hampton Roads is home to a large presence of federal workers, experts believe it’s one of the reasons the region saw a decrease in pending home sales. Jeremy Caleb Johnson, an associate broker with Long and Foster Real Estate, explained some of the impact he has seen firsthand. ‘I’ve had a number of clients just within the last month or two who have pulled back on their plans to purchase or they have reduced their budget,’ Johnson said, ‘and some have even canceled their plans to relocate because of the return to office orders for federal workers, as well as their uncertainty of if they’ll have a job.'”
From NPR. “Tens of thousands of veterans were left facing foreclosure after the VA abruptly cancelled a key part of a pandemic-era mortgage relief program that allowed vets to skip mortgage payments if they had trouble paying. When NPR first uncovered the VA’s move in late 2023, there were about 40,000 vets in danger of losing their homes. The VA responded by halting foreclosures for a full year while it rolled out a rescue plan. That rescue plan, called VASP, has now put 17,109 veterans and their families into new, low-interest-rate, affordable mortgages, according to the VA. In a statement to NPR Thursday, the VA said it was ending the VASP program. ‘Beginning May 1, 2025, VA’s Veterans Affairs Servicing Purchase Program [VASP]… will stop accepting new enrollees,’ it said. ‘This change is necessary because VA is not set up or intended to be a mortgage loan restructuring service.'”
“At a recent hearing before the House Committee on Veterans Affairs, a representative of a trade group that works to advance the interests of real estate lenders said that would be a disaster. ‘Without VASP, VA would have foreclosed on tens of thousands of borrowers,’ said Elizabeth Balce, representing the Mortgage Bankers Association. Balce said scuttling the VASP program, especially before VA stands up an alternative, would have one clear result. ‘Foreclosure. Period,’ she said, ‘That’s really where it’s gonna come to. The short answer is foreclosure.'”
KESQ in California. “Canadian snowbirds have long been a cornerstone of Palm Springs economy, bringing seasonal buzz to local businesses and boosting tourism during the desert’s peak months. But in the wake of escalating political tensions and heated rhetoric out of Washington, that dependable migration has begun to slow — leaving city leaders and business owners concerned about what the future holds. ‘We are hearing from some business owners… that have house vacation rentals here in Palm Springs… they are noticing some drop off from that,’ said Joy Meridith Brown, owner of Crystal Fantasy in downtown Palm Springs. ‘And I think that that was our first real alert.'”
From CBS News. “As more people in California lose private insurance, the state’s FAIR plan is filling up with homes in places the industry itself has classified as low-risk for wildfire. For Ken Cavalli and Lisa Fine-Cavalli, their new home in West Roseville is their dream home. It’s about halfway between Sacramento and the Sierra Nevada foothills. Down their street, flat open fields are filling in with new housing developments without a tree in sight. When the Cavallis applied for a new policy with their same insurer, they were denied. ‘I thought, ‘Are you kidding me?’ Lisa said. ‘Ken’s been on their insurance for 30 years, and we’ve never had any problems. We never had any claims.'”
“The problem is doubled for the Cavallis because it means not only are they without good options for their home, but the buyers of their old home won’t be able to find a plan either. According to wildfire reporting mandated by the state regulator, the industry gave Ken and Lisa’s ZIP code an average risk class of ‘negligible.’ Yet, like nearly half a million other Californians, the Cavallis have found themselves facing a choice between a risky, unregulated out-of-state insurer or the California FAIR Plan, the low-coverage insurer of last resort.”
“Rex Frazier, president of an insurance advocacy organization, calls the FAIR plan’s size ‘a canary in the coal mine,’ indicative of larger problems in the market. ‘Insurers are not renewing policies,’ Frazier said. ‘Because we have a system that has not allowed companies to earn enough money to do business everywhere.’ Frazier said that home insurance rates are objectively underpriced in California, a point of view that’s become increasingly mainstream even if leaders are loath to say it out loud. In national comparisons, Florida and New York have the highest premiums, while California ranks much further down at 20th place below Kansas and Wyoming.”
The Epoch Times. “A Michigan couple who were arrested last month in Cancun, Mexico, following a dispute over a payment with a resort company have been released and are returning to the United States, U.S. special envoy Adam Boehler confirmed on April 3. Paul Akeo and his wife, Christy, had been held in a Mexican prison since their March 4 arrest following the disagreement with Palace Resorts, a Florida-based company that owns multiple luxury hotels, resorts, and vacation clubs worldwide. The couple was accompanied on the flight by Rep. Tom Barrett (R-Mich.). In an April 2 post on the social media platform X, Barrett said the two were being held in ‘horrific conditions’ that included ‘rubbled walls, overcrowded cells, toilets that don’t flush, and disgusting food. This has left them scared, frustrated, and struggling to find hope,’ Barrett wrote.”
“According to a criminal complaint filed by Palace Resorts with Mexican authorities in 2022, the Akeos canceled 13 credit card payments to the hotel chain, totaling more than $116,500. The payments were canceled after the couple made use of various benefits they were entitled to as part of their membership with the resort, the complaint states. The couple were ‘not only publicly sharing the benefits granted through the Affiliation Program on social networks but were also illegally selling those membership benefits to third parties,’ the complaint states. Palace Resorts alleged the couple’s actions constituted fraud. The couple was released after The Palace Company and the Akeos came to an agreement whereby the amount contested and ultimately refunded to the Akeos by American Express would be donated to a nonprofit in Mexico benefiting orphan children.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “90 Trinity St., No. 401, Toronto. Asking price: $679,900 (September, 2024). Previous asking prices: $699,900 (June, 2024); $719,900 (April, 2024); $769,900 (February, 2024); $599,900 (October, 2023); $784,900 (September, 2023); $799,900 (Late July, 2023); $819,900 (Mid July, 2023). Selling price: $655,000 (February, 2025). Previous selling prices: $725,000 (June, 2019); $475,000 (November, 2016). Property days on market: 434. This one-bedroom suite with a den had an offer days after it came to market in the summer of 2023 priced at $819,900, but when the seller signed back the offer with a minor price change, the erstwhile buyer balked. ‘One week we’d get five showings, then weeks would go by with nothing,’ said agent Jenelle Cameron. ‘That’s been happening with all condos I’ve been trying to sell.'”
“Last fall, the seller removed dated wallpaper, lighting, and a kitchen island crowding the entertaining area, and reset the price at $679,900. This year, the seller agreed to a sale at $655,000, determined to redirect their energies to their next move. ‘It was the only offer we’d seen since the first offer, which was substantially higher,’ Ms. Cameron said. ‘But the seller will buy something and get a good deal on the other end. Everything we’re looking at for her is $100,000 less than it was last year.'”
ABC News in Australia. “When rain first started gushing through Annouchka de Jong Heybroek’s faulty balcony door, she expected the issue would be quickly resolved. Instead, she’s been immersed in an ugly four-year dispute with her neighbours, strata manager and the apartment block’s developer over who is responsible for the common area defect. In 2021, Ms de Jong Heybroek sank her retirement savings into the purchase of three units in the complex. NSW Building Commission inspectors last year found 44 serious defects in the complex, including on Ms de Jong Heybroek’s balcony. In 2024 she tried to sell one unit, listing it for almost $200,000 less than her original purchase price. It didn’t sell.”
“Development company Mittagong Central Developments has been ordered to fix the issues identified by the building commission but is disputing the work rectification order in the Land and Environment Court. Meanwhile, those with damaged apartments are watching their issues grow worse. Recently, Ms de Jong Heybroek’s bathroom fan fell out of the ceiling. Mittagong Central Developments owner Jeff Knox lives on the ground floor with his wife. The pair own two apartments in the building. When Ms de Jong Heybroek tried to sell one of her units, Mr Knox contacted her real estate agent unhappy he had described the apartment as being sold ‘warts and all’ in the property listing.”
“In texts to the agent, sighted by the ABC, he claimed Ms de Jong Heybroek’s water ingress was due to ’50 dead pigeons’ and their eggs blocking drainpipes, which was not his responsibility. As the fight to have the defects rectified gets bogged down in legal action, apartment owners’ strata fees have risen, in part due to increasing insurance premiums. The building’s insurance broker has struggled to find a strata underwriter willing to take on the risk due to the defects, work rectification order and NCAT proceedings. ‘My fees used to be $800 a quarter and are now $4,600 a quarter per unit,’ Ms de Jong Heybroek said. She has been issued a notice of recovery action after falling behind on her levies, which is the first step in potential bankruptcy proceedings. The notice was issued by her compulsory strata manager Jeff Facer, who was appointed by the tribunal to manage the dysfunctional strata scheme.”
“Grandmother Judith McGhee recently joined Ms de Jong Heybroek’s legal battle against the owners corporation at NCAT. The 77-year-old had also been issued a notice of recovery action and has taken out a reverse mortgage to cover the debt. Ms McGhee told the tribunal she had ‘become a psychological and financial prisoner’ in her own home. She described the experience as ‘devastating’ and said she’d been left with ‘a unit that I cannot rent, sell, nor live in safely.'”
‘Without VASP, VA would have foreclosed on tens of thousands of borrowers,’ said Elizabeth Balce, representing the Mortgage Bankers Association. Balce said scuttling the VASP program, especially before VA stands up an alternative, would have one clear result. ‘Foreclosure. Period,’ she said, ‘That’s really where it’s gonna come to. The short answer is foreclosure’
That’s some sound lending right there Beth.
And a lot of VA and FHA is just plain fraud. They act as if all of these deals are throwing people out of their homes. Do a little digging media and find out how many of these loans are actually owner occupied. No one is talking about the fraud and how the taxpayer is funding investor delinquencies. Enough of this cry-me-a-river cr#p!
It’s all subprime and VA is often zero down. A UHS told me once, ‘we love VA loans because they can’t be rejected.’ Unless they don’t hit the appraisal, which they always do.
A statistic I like to bring up now and again: In the 2000’s, the market share for VA loans was 2%. Now it’s closer to 12% of shack purchases and obammie/mel watt took the cap off entirely. So a coast guard guy can buy a million $ shanty in San Diego, zero down.
And coast guard guy calls it his primary residence to qualify and take advantage of minimal down and low interest rates with no intention of ever living there and turns it into vacation rental. And the thing about this fraud is no one tries to hide it, and loan officers and realtors promote it. FHA and VA needs to be shut down.
“From NPR. “Tens of thousands of veterans were left facing foreclosure after the VA abruptly cancelled a key part of a pandemic-era mortgage relief program that allowed vets to skip mortgage payments if they had trouble paying.”
https://www.npr.org/2024/06/07/nx-s1-4995011/va-veterans-banks-homes-mortgage-foreclosure
National
The VA tells banks not to foreclose on veterans’ homes this year
June 7, 2024 9:00 AM ET
By Chris Arnold, Quil Lawrence
“The Department of Veterans Affairs has extended a moratorium on foreclosures for vets with GI Bill home loans.”
“The VA initially asked mortgage companies last year to halt all foreclosures after an NPR investigation revealed that the VA had abruptly ended a key part of a pandemic mortgage relief program,…”
https://www.npr.org/2025/04/03/nx-s1-5351768/trumps-va-is-ending-a-rescue-program-thats-saved-17-000-military-veterans-homes
Investigations
Trump’s VA is ending a rescue program that’s saved 17,000 military veterans’ homes
April 3, 2025 11:08 PM ET
By Chris Arnold, Quil Lawrence
“The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs said Thursday that it will end a mortgage-rescue program designed to help veterans who have fallen behind on their mortgages keep their homes.”
http://housingbubble.blog/?p=9087
The Housing Bubble Blog
This Isn’t A Safety Net — It’s A Moral Hazard Factory
March 30, 2025
Ben Jones
Related comments:
http://housingbubble.blog/?p=9087#comment-313339
http://housingbubble.blog/?p=9087#comment-313381
https://thehill.com/opinion/white-house/5220187-veterans-va-loan-program/
Opinion>White House
The views expressed by contributors are their own and not the view of The Hill
Congress must stop Biden’s VA mortgage bailout — before it’s too late
by Tobias Peter, opinion contributor – 03/29/25 11:00 AM ET
“No one wants to see the nation’s heroes lose their homes. But a housing finance system that eliminates the possibility of foreclosure is inherently unsustainable, and that is exactly what the [VASP] program does. Launched under the Biden administration, the program upends the traditional balance by having the VA buy troubled loans, hold them on its books, and absorb all future losses while servicers walk away whole.”
“Even more troubling, the program’s overly generous terms invite strategic default. Veterans with 6 percent or 7 percent mortgages have a strong incentive to stop paying, just to qualify for a government refinance at 2.5 percent. Naturally, servicers love this. Under the traditional VA program, they shared up to 25 percent of losses; now the [VASP] program makes them whole, giving them every reason to push borrowers into the program. It privatizes gains and socializes losses.”
“This isn’t a safety net — it’s a moral hazard factory that risks destabilizing the VA loan program and exposing taxpayers to massive losses.”
The problem isn’t just VA loans; the entire .gov housing complex has a huge subprime problem, and since taxpayers are ultimately responsible (i.e. other people’s money), the taxpayer has a huge subprime problem (again). Recall that 2008 Housing Bubble 1.0 didn’t work out so well for taxpayers, but they “foamed the runway” for the banks, while millions of homeowners were foreclosed on. Fool me once…
Shut down HUD and all subordinate housing agencies. No business making subprime loans with taxpayer backstop. Get .gov completely out of the U.S. housing market.
Stop funding PBS and NPR. Totally biased D propaganda outlets.
The entire system is corrupt, and apparently until DOGE, there was no oversight? Congress, are you listening?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=67TgX9UbDDI
Entire Generations Priced Out of Homes as Govt Blocks Foreclosures
Nobody Special Finance
61K subscribers
31,909 views Mar 16, 2025
“Millenials and Gen Z are being denied the dream of home ownership due to widespread fraud and abuse of Covid-Era programs meant to prevent people from losing their homes. Melody Wright and John Comiskey join me to talk about how the government is preventing foreclosure on hundreds of thousands of homeowners and investors who haven’t made a payment in years, keeping home prices inflated and beyond the reach of younger generations.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O-t7xCebARc
Government Hiding Foreclosures. The Subprime Housing Market Crash
MHFIN
202K subscribers
63,847 views Mar 12, 2025
“The U.S. government is quietly covering mortgage payments for hundreds of thousands of delinquent borrowers, preventing foreclosures and propping up the housing market with taxpayer money. With FHA defaults surpassing 2008 subprime crisis levels, could this hidden bailout lead to another housing crash? Watch now to see the shocking evidence.”
https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1900231516812431573
Darth Powell
@VladTheInflator
HOLY F*CK, 60% of builder’s loans are VA FHA
Image
1:04 PM · Mar 13, 2025 · 2,360 Views
https://x.com/VladTheInflator/status/1900241517622767659
Darth Powell @VladTheInflator
Scott, when does the taxpayer stop covering mortgage payments?
0:00 / 3:29
From
Darth Powell
Quote
Scott Turner
@SecretaryTurner
·Mar 12
Let’s set the record straight.
1:44 PM · Mar 13, 2025 · 103.7K Views
“Entire Generations Priced Out of Homes as Govt Blocks Foreclosures”
“…the government is preventing foreclosure on hundreds of thousands of homeowners and investors who haven’t made a payment in years, keeping home prices inflated and beyond the reach of younger generations.”
They’ve been doing this since 2008, at least. As someone pointed out here a while back, every time they keep some deadbeat in “their” home, some honest/prudent would-be homebuyer is getting screwed.
Thank you for posting this and the links. More need to be made aware…..and get pi$$ed off!
“the entire .gov housing complex has a huge subprime problem, and since taxpayers are ultimately responsible (i.e. other people’s money), the taxpayer has a huge subprime problem”
Melody is a great source for tracking this. And the vid referenced is a good one. They’ve done a couple together laying it out well.
This is the link I was thinking of
https://youtu.be/67TgX9UbDDI?si=buhha1R2jMR2xGXJ
There’s also a more recent one with the two of them.
‘join me to talk about how the government is preventing foreclosure on hundreds of thousands of homeowners and investors who haven’t made a payment in years’
Melody is tracking this? In 2009 I started an online petition asking congress to put a stop to banks hoarding foreclosures. It didn’t go anywhere. But I’ve covered every aspect of this whole debacle. Even down to going to foreclosure auctions (hundreds over the years.) The first ones were in 2007, Flagstaff Arizona. I would came back and immediately posted on this blog: ‘They aren’t selling the foreclosures, they are recycling them through endless cancellations.’
They still are today. Just went to an auction last week, same deal, 18 years after I posted about it here. But yeah, Melody is tracking it, she has a sail phone!
Pshaw, Ben Jones, you unvaxxed Kremlin cats-paw and doom-monger out to undermine trust & confidence in our Strongest Economy Ever. Surely Fauxahontus, self-proclaimed champion of the middle class and ever-vigilant guardian of the soundness of our financial system, would act decisively against systemic fraud and malfeasance of the sort you describe for your merry band of miscreants on the seditious HBB. Your social credit score is being reviewed for a downgrade.
Melody is a great source for tracking this.
I was lambasted for posting a video with Melody. People couldn’t bother to listen past the excerpted opening clip.
I was mocking peoples historical ignorance and click-baiting. These people don’t know anything about how the ‘shadow inventory’ came to be, what it turned into, how the guberment in collusion with lenders did this intentionally and still do. I personally tried to draw attention to this disgraceful situation for many years. When I did the petition, to promote it I went to New Mexico, Texas, Florida,Virginia and Washington DC. I took hundreds of photos of abandoned houses everywhere, marked as foreclosure by the paperwork usually found attached to windows or doors. I’d post them online within an hour. Not for sale, just sitting and rotting. Thousands of people followed that and I had some reporters call. But nothing changed.
I still go to auctions. I drive past a foreclosure every time I get groceries. Sitting there for 3 years now. No action, not for sale, great neighborhood. I made videos too, Las Vegas, all over Phoenix, specifically on foreclosures that were hiding in plain site, not for sale and had obviously sat there for years. Some had trees growing between the door and screen door.
So if I did all that and I saw anything change, given I’m on this blog every day, don’t you think I’d mention it? If anyone wants to know how this works, who is behind it, I’ve got 18 years of subject matter to look at. Other than that, nothing has changed. But that isn’t click bait is it? Pretending you discovered it is.
Melody covers more than just foreclosures.
My house had sat like that for 6 years, and it had a tree growing up through the porch roof.
I made a cash offer to the bank. No idea why they decided to sell after all that time.
What will the stock market do on Monday? Serious question.
“What will the stock market do on Monday?”
I don’t think anyone really knows.
The better question to me is what are the projected 10-12 year, full cycle returns from here? This is independent of the recent tariff tantrum. History says at these (still) nosebleed valuations, that full cycle returns will be negative.
https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc250223/
The Government Deficits Land in the Deepest Pockets
John P. Hussman, Ph.D.
President, Hussman Investment Trust
February 23, 2025
“It’s helpful to keep in mind that anytime you change part of your investment position, there will be regret. If you sell part of your holdings, and the market continues to advance, you’ll regret having sold anything. If you sell part of your holdings and the market declines, you’ll regret not having sold more. The same is true for purchases.”
“There will always be regret. The key is to realize this up front, and choose an acceptable level of regret. You do that by examining your exposure to risk, considering both potential returns and potential losses.”
“With our most reliable valuation measures more extreme than both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks, we continue to believe that the stock market is tracing out the extended peak of the third great speculative bubble in U.S. history.”
“MarketCap/GVA measures the market cap of U.S. nonfinancial corporations as a ratio to their gross-value added – corporate revenues generated incrementally at each stage of production, including our estimate of foreign revenues for these companies. The recent extreme of 3.6 is the highest level in history, exceeding both the 1929 and 2000 market peaks.”
I was dismayed to learn recently that both Hussman and Noland are huge libtards. I generally respect their work but damn is it hard to take people seriously after they tip their libtard hand.
IIRC Hussman was also a huge Vax proponent.
A hint …
https://finviz.com/futures_charts.ashx?t=INDICES&p=d
‘Insurers are not renewing policies,’ Frazier said. ‘Because we have a system that has not allowed companies to earn enough money to do business everywhere.’ Frazier said that home insurance rates are objectively underpriced in California, a point of view that’s become increasingly mainstream even if leaders are loath to say it out loud. In national comparisons, Florida and New York have the highest premiums, while California ranks much further down at 20th place below Kansas and Wyoming’
Even though California shanty’s cost twice as much or more. Central planning!
If CA insurance premiums weren’t artificially suppressed, property values would drop.
If unsound mortgage underwriting wasn’t involuntarily backstopped by taxpayers for millions of FBs, foreclosure rates would skyrocket and shack valuations would plummet.
Agreed.
We may soon have a chance to see the end to renters being coerced into backstopping wealthy homeowners’ mortgages.
Another way to say it is artificially low insurance rates pushed prices up.
property values would drop
The reason “leaders are loath to say it out loud.”
‘According to a criminal complaint filed by Palace Resorts with Mexican authorities in 2022, the Akeos canceled 13 credit card payments to the hotel chain, totaling more than $116,500. The payments were canceled after the couple made use of various benefits they were entitled to as part of their membership with the resort, the complaint states. The couple were ‘not only publicly sharing the benefits granted through the Affiliation Program on social networks but were also illegally selling those membership benefits to third parties,’ the complaint states. Palace Resorts alleged the couple’s actions constituted fraud. The couple was released after The Palace Company and the Akeos came to an agreement whereby the amount contested and ultimately refunded to the Akeos by American Express would be donated to a nonprofit in Mexico benefiting orphan children’
It’s complicated but it sounds like this couple were doing some deals and got caught. From what I see they are still out the 100 grand and they’ve been made an example for others. As someone mentioned before, they got on a plane back to Mexico after the SHTF.
And Mexico is where all the Canadian snowbirds claim they want to go to, after they get their sorry axxs out of MAGA country, good riddance ,,,
Canada was recently forced to reimpose visa restrictions on Mexicans, after being flooded with asylum seekers & criminals after Fidelito’s globalist quisling regime ditched its visa requirement in 2017 to encourage and enable the Great Replacement mass migration so beloved of globalists & their minions. Of course the “New Canadians” have brought their 3rd World ways with them, contributing to Lil’ Fidel’s unpopularity among Heritage Canadians.
https://apnews.com/article/canada-mexico-visa-requirement-59cf64c5d74271cb2e3f40970ffb4786
Canada needs to expel about a third of its population
Since we’re discussing Canada, I’m just curious what people think of the seller noted in Ben’s links who bought the trough in 2013 and is telling a sad tale about how he ‘took a loss’. Clearly he is full of sh!t. 🙂
‘Another repercussion, he and other condo experts say, is that the financial pressure on condo associations to sell in bulk to developers will probably increase. Though some prominent sales have happened in Miami and South Florida, the floodgates haven’t opened yet because bulks purchases remain a hard deal to pull off, Marcus said. That’s in part because a small percentage of owners can effectively veto a sale under Florida condo laws’
I saw this movie in the 2000’s. What happens is a few holdouts can block a bulk sale while other FB’s are sinking like a turd in a well. Expect some heated HOA meeting and icy stares at the pool. When the developers start to accumulate units from the FB’s, they load the condo associations board and make life miserable for the holdouts. Stop cleaning the pools, etc.
Downtown San Francisco’s ghostly and ‘depressing’ mall clears out, shoppers find deals
ABC7 News Bay Area
1 day ago
While walking through the San Francisco Centre might feel like a complete ghost town, Bloomingdale’s was bustling with shoppers looking for deals as the store offers 70% off before shuttering for good.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcVygK4C0UQ
2:21.
Here’s the print version:
https://abc7news.com/post/bloomingdales-sf-location-now-offering-70-discounts-nears-closure-san-francisco-centre/16121757/
Doom Loop gonna doom.
San Francisco Mayor Daniel Lurie is just another liberal cuck.
Ghost Town – The Specials
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RZ2oXzrnti4
Now that risk assets and bond yields have CR8Red, is your risk appetite up or down?
Trusted
US Treasury Yields Fall Below 4%, Sparking Interest in Bitcoin and Risk Assets
3 mins
By Lockridge Okoth
4 April 2025, 14:21 GMT+0000
Updated by
Ann Maria Shibu
4 April 2025, 14:22 GMT+0000
In Brief
– US 10-year Treasury yield drops below 4%, signaling potential Fed rate cuts and increasing Bitcoin’s appeal as a risk asset.
– Falling Treasury yields historically benefit Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in riskier assets like BTC and altcoins.
– Analysts link the yield drop to economic uncertainty from tariffs and recession fears, while Bitcoin may see significant gains if liquidity increases.
The US 10-year Treasury yield has fallen below 4% for the first time since October.
This signals a potential shift in Federal Reserve (Fed) policy, sparking renewed interest in Bitcoin (BTC) and other risk assets.
Treasury Yields and Bitcoin: A Risk-On Rotation?
As highlighted by financial markets aggregator Barchart, this decline reflects growing economic uncertainty. Specifically, it suggests rising recession fears and increasing speculation that the Fed may pivot to rate cuts sooner than expected.
A drop in Treasury yields reduces the attractiveness of traditional safe-haven assets like bonds, often encouraging investors to seek higher returns elsewhere.
Historically, Bitcoin and altcoins have benefitted from such shifts, as declining real yields increase liquidity and risk appetite. Crypto analyst Dan Gambardello emphasized this connection. He noted that lower yields are bullish for Bitcoin, aligning with expectations that a dovish Fed will drive liquidity into riskier assets.
“The irony is that when yields fall, there’s less reason to sit in “safe” bonds— And ultimately more reason to chase returns in risk assets like BTC and alts. This is why you see risk-on bulls get excited when 10-year yields begin falling,” he stated.
…
https://beincrypto.com/us-10-year-treasury-yield-bitcoin-appeal/
“He noted that lower yields are bullish for Bitcoin, aligning with expectations that a dovish Fed will drive liquidity into riskier assets.”
Have you noticed the signs of a dovish Fed eager to get blamed for the next wave of inflation?
Neither have I.
Does the market need Powell to say something dovish today?
Five cuts priced in over the next 12 months
Adam Button
04/04/2025 | 07:15 GMT-7
Yesterday I wrote that the speech from Powell scheduled for today was an even-bigger event than non-farm payrolls and that’s even more true now. Fed pricing has continued to take a dovish shift and the market is now pricing in 125 basis points in rate cuts in the coming 12 months.
The runs counter to recent Fed commentary that suggests that they don’t want to cut rates until they have a clearer view to low rates and that they’re not confident that tariffs will be a one-off, short-lived boost to prices.
Now the market still believes in the Fed put and that’s very well-founded given the long-term Fed backing of risk assets.
My guess is that Powell will repeat that the Fed doesn’t need to be in a ‘hurry’ to make any move. It’s what Jefferson said yesterday and that might not be enough but that’s been the Fed line since the latest FOMC and given all the turmoil at the moment, it’s the safest course of action.
The problem I have right now is that the market sees a 40% chance of a cut at the May 7 meeting and is pricing in 35 bps in cuts for the June meeting. If Powell doesn’t acknowledge that, then he might sound hawkish and we could get some more kicking and screaming in markets.
For him though, it’s a tough spot, particularly in light of today’s non-farm payrolls. He has characterized the Fed stance as modestly restrictive and do they want to be dovish at a time when tariffs could push PCE inflation to 5%.
…
https://www.forexlive.com/centralbank/does-the-market-need-powell-to-say-something-dovish-today-20250404/
With employment still running strong and the costs of imports impacted by new tariffs, the Fed’s risk skew towards inflation over unemployment.
This works in favor of higher interest rates ahead to contain new inflationary pressure.
Trump says ‘perfect time’ for Fed to cut interest rates
By Reuters
April 4, 20258:18 AM PDTUpdated a day ago
The Federal Reserve building is seen in Washington, U.S., January 26, 2022. REUTERS/Joshua Roberts/File Photo
WASHINGTON, April 4 (Reuters) – U.S. President Donald Trump on Friday called on Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell to cut interest rates, saying it was the “perfect time” to do so.
“CUT INTEREST RATES, JEROME, AND STOP PLAYING POLITICS!,” Trump said on Truth Social.
…
https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-says-perfect-time-fed-cut-interest-rates-2025-04-04/
The Fed should be raising rates to discourage ‘Murican debt donkeys from binging on more easy money.
“Trump says ‘perfect time’ for Fed to cut interest rates”
The president should be honest and just say, “It’s a great time to phuc savers!”
Federal Reserve
Powell sees tariffs raising inflation and says Fed will wait before further rate moves
Published Fri, Apr 4 2025 11:25 AM EDT
Updated Fri, Apr 4 2025 1:39 PM EDT
Jeff Cox
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/powell-sees-tariffs-raising-inflation-and-says-fed-will-wait-before-further-rate-moves.html
Stocks Erase 12 Months of Gains in Brutal Tariff Selloff
Investors rush to bonds and raise odds of Fed interest rate cuts as stocks head toward bear market territory.
Sarah Hansen and Lukas Strobl
Apr 4, 2025
Stocks plunged in the United States and around the globe Friday after China imposed 34% tariffs on all US goods in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s tariffs on the country. Government bond yields fell sharply as investors sought safe-haven assets for a second day amid the spiraling trade war.
The Morningstar US Market Index closed down 5.91% on Friday afternoon, after dropping more than 5% on Thursday. By this measure, stocks have fallen by more than 10% since Thursday’s open and more than 17% since their February peak. Losses of 20% or more would constitute a bear market. After Friday’s close, stocks had wiped out all their gains from the past twelve months.
The S&P 500 benchmark was 6% lower on Friday, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq dropped 5.8%, hitting bear-market territory for that index.
With tariffs expected to damage economic growth traders have ratcheted up their bets that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates at its May meeting to support the economy. They now see a roughly 30% chance of a cut next month, up from 22% on Thursday, according to the CME FedWatch tool.
In an appearance on Friday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled that the Fed is watching risks to inflation and the economy but played down any urgency around interest rate cuts. “It feels like we don’t need to be in a hurry,” he says. “We’re going to have to wait and see how this plays out before we start to make adjustments.”
Solid March employment data released Friday morning did little to reassure markets.
…
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/global-stocks-plunge-second-day-china-strikes-back
I’m no cryptoboi, but I’m having a hard time envisioning the risk-on appetite returning by Monday.
Lots of margin calls going out this weekend. The lemmings that levered up on debt to speculate in Wall Street’s rigged casino are going to be liquidating everything they can sell to cover their wrong-way bets.
Hedge funds, ETFs dump over $40 billion in stocks after Trump tariff shock
By Carolina Mandl and Saqib Iqbal Ahmed
April 4, 2025 1:24 PM PDT
Updated 8 hours ago
The Goldman Sachs company logo is on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., July 13, 2021. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo Purchase
NEW YORK, April 4 (Reuters) – Global hedge funds and levered exchange-traded funds (ETFs) dumped more than $40 billion of stocks at a breakneck pace, growing increasingly bearish after President Donald Trump’s shock announcement of harsher-than-expected global tariffs, according to bank notes to clients on Friday.
…
https://www.reuters.com/markets/wealth/hedge-funds-sell-largest-amount-stocks-since-2010-goldman-sachs-says-2025-04-04/
Financial Times
Equities
Hedge funds hit with steepest margin calls since 2020 Covid crisis
Banks ask clients to stump up additional money as global market sell-off knocks value of holdings
A pedestrian walks past a Wall Street sign near the New York Stock Exchange in New York
The margin calls underscore the intense turbulence in global markets as Donald Trump’s tariffs announcement was followed by retaliatory duties by China
© Justin Lane/EPA-EFE/Shutterstock
Costas Mourselas and Harriet Agnew in London and Joshua Franklin in New York
Published yesterday
Hedge funds have been hit with the biggest margin calls since Covid shut down huge parts of the global economy in 2020, after Donald Trump’s tariffs triggered a rout in global financial markets.
Wall Street banks have asked their hedge fund clients to stump up more money as security for their loans because the value of their holdings had tumbled, according to three people familiar with the matter. Several big banks have issued the largest margin calls to their clients since the beginning of the pandemic in early 2020.
The margin calls underscore the intense turbulence in global markets on Thursday and Friday as Trump’s tariffs announcement was followed by retaliatory duties by China, and other countries readied their own responses. Wall Street’s S&P 500 share index was set to post its worst week since 2020, while oil and riskier corporate bonds have sold off heavily.
“Rates, equities and oil were down significantly . . . it was the breadth of moves across the board [which caused the scale of the margin calls],” said one prime brokerage executive, adding that it was reminiscent of the sharp and broad market moves in the early months of the Covid pandemic.
“We are proactively reaching out for clients to understand [risk] across their overall books,” said a prime brokerage executive at a second large US bank.
According to two people familiar with the matter, Wall Street prime brokerage teams — which lend money to hedge funds — came into the office early on Friday and held all hands on deck meetings to prepare for the large amount of margin calls to clients.
…
Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Margin Calls Trigger Liquidation, Is $3000 the Next Target?
By: James Hyerczyk
Published: Apr 04, 2025, 12:33 GMT+00:00
Key Points:
– Gold slips from record highs as margin call-driven liquidation weighs on bullish momentum in the short term.
– Technical reversal at $3083.65 could lead to a correction toward $3000 or deeper if support fails to hold.
– Recession risks rise to 50%, says El-Erian, warning of inflation and slower U.S. growth hitting gold sentiment.
…
https://www.fxempire.com/forecasts/article/gold-xauusd-price-forecast-margin-calls-trigger-liquidation-is-3000-the-next-target-1509453
Gold & silver are highly liquid assets. When the margin calls start going out, the babies are going to be thrown out with the bathwater. I will happily exchange my Yellen Bux for discount precious metals.
“I will happily exchange my Yellen Bux for discount precious metals.”
Keep us posted on when you think the fire sale has started. It doesn’t seem like we are there yet.
If I bought SQQQ end of day Wednesday and sold end of day Friday I’d be up 30% in two days.
Comments on /r/wallstreetbets that missed gains can feel more painful than actual losses.
I guess the left’s new motto is “I STAND WITH WALL STREET.” MSNBC should be sure to get a pic of all the BLM and Antifa day traders standing around anxiously checking their bleeding multi-million-dollar portfolios every five minutes like it’s 2001 again.
Dave Portnoy goes on rampage after Trump’s sweeping tariffs cost him $7M in stock losses: ‘Everything’s in the sh–ter’
By Katherine Donlevy
Published April 5, 2025, 11:34 a.m. ET
Barstool founder Dave Portnoy’s once-staunch support of President Trump suffered a gut punch this week after the president’s tariff implementation plunged Portnoy’s stock portfolio “in the sh–ter.”
Portnoy revealed Thursday he lost $7 million in stock and cryptocurrency value in the wake of Trump’s imposition of a 10% baseline tariff on imported goods and harsher “reciprocal” levies on dozens of countries.
“I’m down 7 million bucks in stocks and crypto,” Portney said in the clip widely circulated on social media.
…
https://nypost.com/2025/04/05/us-news/dave-portnoy-critical-of-trumps-tariffs-after-it-cost-him-7m-stock-plunge/
“I’m down 7 million bucks in stocks and crypto,” Portney said in the clip widely circulated on social media.
You should have taken the cue from grampa Buffett.
Chief Strategist Who Foresaw Tariff Shock Says Worst Yet to Come
Market is Giving ‘Big Thumbs Down’ To Trump’s Tariff Policy, Says Yardeni
By Vildana Hajric
April 4, 2025 at 4:00 AM PDT
Takeaways NEW
Just after the US election, when Wall Street was all-in on the prospects of a business-friendly President Donald Trump, Peter Berezin was sounding the alarm.
Berezin and his team at the research shop BCA predicted that broad-based unilateral tariffs were coming — and that the new administration’s proposals would go well beyond what had been implemented in Trump’s first term. After this week’s tariff drama, Berezin’s December call has proved prescient. And if he’s also right about what’s next, then US stocks are nowhere near a bottom.
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-04-04/trump-tariffs-bca-strategist-who-foresaw-trade-shock-sees-more-stock-losses
prospects of a business-friendly President Donald
Pro US business.
I suspect that the stock market was being juiced with money skimmed from federal spending.
Is 2,200 points down on the Dow in one day alot?
MoneyWatch
Stock market rout deepens as Dow plunges more than 2,200 points and Nasdaq enters bear market
moneywatch
Updated on: April 5, 2025 / 10:31 AM EDT / CBS News
Financial markets landed with a thud Friday, ending a tumultuous week with stocks tumbling for a second straight day on concerns about the economic fallout from new U.S. tariffs and the prospects of a global trade war.
President Trump’s announcement of steep tariffs on Wednesday shocked investors and sent economists scurrying to revise downward their forecasts for U.S. economic growth. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell also warned that the levies — which include a 10% universal duty on all U.S. imports and “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly 90 countries — are likely to dent the economy.
“While uncertainty remains elevated, it is now becoming clear that the tariff increases will be significantly larger than expected,” Powell said in a speech Friday in Arlington, Virginia. “The same is likely to be true of the economic effects, which will include higher inflation and slower growth.”
The S&P 500 fell 322 points, or nearly 6%, to close at 5,074 — the largest one-day slump in the broad-based index since March 16, 2020, when it lost 12%. Today’s plunge erased $2.7 trillion in market value from the index. The decline wipes out more than a year of stock market gains, taking the S&P 500 back to its levels in February 2024.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 2,231 points, or 5.5%, and is down 14% since peaking in February. The Nasdaq Composite slid 963 points, or 5.8%. That means the the tech-heavy index is now in a bear market, or when stocks drop at least 20% from their most recent high.
Tech stocks have flailed this week because of concerns that American tariffs on China — along with countermeasures from Beijing — will hurt the high-tech sector, which has been key to driving corporate profits.
“The economic pain that will be brought by these tariffs [is] hard to describe and can essentially take the U.S. tech industry back a decade in the process while China steamrolls ahead,” Dan Ives of Wedbush Securities said in a report.
Solita Marcelli, chief investment officer Americas at UBS Global Wealth Management, told clients that the U.S. could tip into a recession later this year unless the U.S. moves to ease tariffs.
“In the near term, we believe the effective tariff rates could be higher still, and without President Trump taking active steps to reduce tariffs over the next three to six months, we are likely to enter a downside scenario, including a meaningful U.S. recession and lower equity markets,” he said in a research note.
The free-fall amounts to the biggest two-day drop for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq since March 2020, when the pandemic began, and has wiped out trillions of dollars in investor wealth.
Drops of this magnitude aren’t unheard of on Wall Street, but they’re rare. Over the last 25 years, the S&P 500 has fallen 4% in a single day 38 times, according to Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist for brokerage firm LPL Financial.
Overseas markets also slid Friday. In overnight trading in Asia, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 dropped 2.8%, while South Korea’s Kospi sank 0.9%. In European trading, Germany’s DAX lost 2%, France’s CAC 40 in Paris dipped 1.6% and Britain’s FTSE 100 shed 1.7%.
U.S. growth downgraded
Economists have downgraded their outlook for U.S. economic growth this year as Mr. Trump piles tariffs on a growing list of countries, warning that the levies are likely to boost inflation. That could reduce consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the nation’s economic activity, as well as crimp business investment.
Import taxes are largely borne by businesses, which typically pass on part or much of those added costs to consumers. As a result, Americans could face higher prices for electronics, household appliances, cars, clothing, furniture, and food such as coffee and chocolate, according to economists.
“Looking ahead, higher tariffs will be working their way through our economy and are likely to raise inflation in coming quarters,” Powell said Friday.
…
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/dow-jones-stocks-today-djia-trump-tariffs/
MYahoo Finance
Reuters
Treasury’s Bessent: Market drop a ‘Mag 7’ problem, not a MAGA one, he says in Tucker Carlson interview
U.S. Secretary of the Treasury Scott Bessent speaks to reporters outside the White House in Washington · Reuters
Costas Pitas, Brendan O’Brien
Fri, April 4, 2025 at 11:51 AM PDT 3 min read
By Costas Pitas, Brendan O’Brien
(Reuters) -The stock market plunge has more to do with the emergence this year of China’s DeepSeek artificial intelligence tool than with President Donald Trump’s policies, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in an interview released on Friday that signaled little concern about the ongoing nosedive.
“For everyone who thinks these market declines are all based on the President’s economic policies, I can tell you that this market decline started with the Chinese AI announcement of DeepSeek,” Bessent told conservative commentator Tucker Carlson.
“If I were to analyze in my old hat, and this is the only time I’m going to talk about it … what’s happening with the market I’d say it’s more a Mag 7 problem, not a MAGA problem,” Bessent, who ran a hedge fund until being tapped as Treasury secretary by Trump, said. “Mag 7” refers to the shares of the so-called Magnificent 7 – a group of seven high-performing tech stocks that had helped drive the market higher before its recent selloff. MAGA refers to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” political slogan.
U.S. stocks have tumbled by around 10% in the two days since Trump announced a new global tariff regime that was more aggressive than analysts and investors had been anticipating. It is a drop that market analysts and large investors themselves have laid at the feet of Trump’s aggressive push on tariffs, which most economists and the head of the Federal Reserve believe risk stoking inflation and damaging economic growth.
Stocks did take a hit in late January when Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant that it says uses less data at a fraction of the cost of incumbent services. It resulted in a record one-day loss of nearly $600 billion in value from the shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia, one of the Magnificent 7.
But the market soon found its footing again and by mid-February, the benchmark S&P 500 Index had regained a record-high level. Then stocks turned south again starting in late February after a widely followed survey of consumers showed households growing broadly pessimistic about the economy’s prospects and fearful that Trump’s push for tariffs would drive up inflation. A raft of other surveys of businesses and consumers since then have flagged similar concerns, and other data has shown the pace of activity has slowed over the course of the first quarter of 2025.
The S&P has lost nearly 14% since February 19, and nearly $10 trillion of U.S. stock market value has been erased.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/treasurys-bessent-market-drop-mag-185141328.html
“Stocks did take a hit in late January when Chinese startup DeepSeek launched a free AI assistant that it says uses less data at a fraction of the cost of incumbent services. It resulted in a record one-day loss of nearly $600 billion in value from the shares of AI chipmaker Nvidia, one of the Magnificent 7.
But the market soon found its footing again and by mid-February, the benchmark S&P 500 Index had regained a record-high level. ”
Dip buyers should take heart: Mr Market always finds his way back from the bottom of the CR8R.
not really, no when the DOW is over 40,000
FFS it’s still up like 50% since 2020.
Barron’s
Markets
The Back Story
A Lesson From the Biggest Stock Market Crash in History: Things Can Get Much Worse
By Kenneth G. Pringle
April 04, 2025, 4:03 pm EDT
The selloff that followed President Donald Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariff announcement was large by any measure, a Black Thursday and a Black Friday. If they are followed by a Black Monday and Tuesday, then everyone is in trouble.
…
https://www.barrons.com/articles/black-thursday-stocks-crash-tariffs-627ef375
Markets
Buffett denies social media rumors after Trump shares wild claim that investor backs president crashing market
Published Fri, Apr 4 2025 1:32 PM EDT
Yun Li
@YunLi626
Kevin Breuninger
@KevinWilliamB
WATCH LIVE
In this article
BRK.B
Warren Buffett went on the record Friday to deny social media posts after President Donald Trump shared on Truth Social a fan video that claimed the president is tanking the stock market on purpose with the endorsement of the legendary investor.
Trump on Friday shared an outlandish social media video that defends his recent policy decisions by arguing he is deliberately taking down the market as a strategic play to force lower interest and mortgage rates.
“Trump is crashing the stock market by 20% this month, but he’s doing it on purpose,” alleged the video, which Trump posted on his Truth Social account.
The video’s narrator then falsely states, “And this is why Warren Buffett just said, ‘Trump is making the best economic moves he’s seen in over 50 years.'”
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/04/buffett-denies-social-media-rumors-after-trump-shares-wild-claim-that-investor-backs-president-crashing-market.html
Yahoo Finance
Reuters
One of the Fed’s top recession alarms sends 2008-style signal
FILE PHOTO: Federal Reserve Board Building in Washington · Reuters
Amanda Cooper
Fri, April 4, 2025 at 4:08 AM PDT
3 min read
By Amanda Cooper
LONDON (Reuters) – One of the Federal Reserve’s preferred recession indicators has this week deteriorated as fast as it did in 2008, the latest sign that bond investors are bracing for a sharp economic slowdown as a result of U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
There are many metrics economists and investors use to try to predict a downturn. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields for instance, is a bond market favourite.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell is said to favour the difference between the yield on three-month Treasury bills and their expected yield in 18 months.
The rationale is that this spread best reflects very near-term rate expectations in a way the gap between two-year and 10-year Treasuries does not.
When recession is looming, the spread narrows and turns negative. However, the Fed’s rate-hiking cycle that started in March 2022 flipped this spread into negative territory and kept it there as yields on T-bills were still high.
On Friday, this spread was at minus 113 basis points, its most negative since last October, but crucially, set for its biggest one-day increase since late 2008, when the global financial crisis roiled markets.
“It’s usually 3-18 months after the last Fed hike until the start of the recession … we are at 21 months and counting so far – no more soft landing folks?” Jordan Rochester head of fixed income, currencies and commodities strategy for EMEA at Mizuho, said in a note on Friday.
Investment bank JPMorgan on Friday said the risk of a U.S. and global recession this year has risen to 60% from 40% based on Trump’s reciprocal tariffs.
Just last week, U.S. rate futures suggested traders were assuming the Fed would cut rates by another 65 basis points this year and then hit the pause button.
They now price in 100 bps of cuts by December, and another 25 bps over the first quarter of 2026, which, if it materialised, would bring U.S. rates to a range of 2.75-3.35%, roughly where they were 2-1/2 years ago.
Banking stocks, which tend to perform well when interest rates are rising, fell sharply around the world on Friday, as recession fears and expectations for deeper rate cuts took hold.
Derivative markets for other central banks painted a similar picture, with the European Central Bank and the Bank of England expected to chop rates three more times this year, from around twice previously.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/one-feds-top-recession-alarms-110848995.html
“They now price in 100 bps of cuts by December, and another 25 bps over the first quarter of 2026, which, if it materialised, would bring U.S. rates to a range of 2.75-3.35%, roughly where they were 2-1/2 years ago.”
That would certainly reduce US interest payments on our national debt by a huge amount.
“Experience The Historic Florida Hotel”. Just a little price capitulation on this one – 6500 sq/ft house for sale in Pensacola, FL for 200K. Previously listed for 750K in 2023. Ignore what the realtor said. The best description would be: “a perfect location to open another flop house where you could easily rent rooms by the half hour”.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/211-W-Cervantes-St-Pensacola-FL-32501/2083153084_zpid/
Almost seems like a deal until you notice it is just blocks from MLK Blvd. It is nice of cities across the US to have provided such an easy warning system. Pass!
Methinks the lemmings who rushed into the illusory “safe haven” of scam digital gambling tokens are going to get their heads handed to them next week.
https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
“A secretive quasi-governmental condo blacklist is growing exponentially, making it difficult for owners in scores of troubled buildings in Miami and South Florida to sell or get loans for repairs even as their associations face a fiscal and time crunch to meet stringent new state safety regulations.
Gosh, I fear that the prospect your condo is or will be on said blacklist will be a serious impediment to Always Be Closing. Suzanne’s research never addressed this scenario.
A secretive quasi-governmental condo blacklist is growing
No one should be a Condo in FL for at least an other year, maybe 2.
This list may save a few people’s financial life.
The list might save more than a few people’s literal lives, given the structural flaws in so many of those shoddily-constructed condo buildings.
‘I think it’s the perfect financial storm for condominiums in Florida,’ said Jake Marcus, a Miami attorney for Allcock Marcus.
The wipeout of Yellen Bux “value” is going to be epic. Got popcorn?
“Tens of thousands of veterans were left facing foreclosure after the VA abruptly cancelled a key part of a pandemic-era mortgage relief program that allowed vets to skip mortgage payments if they had trouble paying.
Okay, so I know every servicemember & veteran is a hero and all, but enlisted military members and their spouses (especially the latter) are not known for their wise use of credit or financial savvy.
‘This change is necessary because VA is not set up or intended to be a mortgage loan restructuring service.’”
I do not want my tax dollars being used to forestall the financial reckoning day for FBs who were manifestly non-creditworthy to ever be given shack loans.
In an April 2 post on the social media platform X, Barrett said the two were being held in ‘horrific conditions’ that included ‘rubbled walls, overcrowded cells, toilets that don’t flush, and disgusting food. This has left them scared, frustrated, and struggling to find hope,’ Barrett wrote.”
Looks like the scammer couple picked the wrong country to pull off their swindles and get “likes” on social media.
To the “medical professionals” who were complicit in coercively forcing the clot shot on patients: justice is coming, and claiming you were “fooled” won’t allow you to escape accountability, and consequences.
https://x.com/liz_churchill10/status/1908273431759491432
100% safe and effective.
Every day when I can still convert my soon-to-be worthless Yellen Bux into God’s money is a good day.
https://www.axios.com/2025/04/03/trump-tariffs-dollar
Globalist Puppetmaster Klaus Schwab Steps Down as World Economic Forum’s Chair: Is the Great Reset Crumbling?
https://archive.ph/55lzJ#selection-635.0-635.109
The architect of the globalist nightmare known as the “Great Reset” is finally stepping back — and not a moment too soon.
Klaus Schwab, the unelected mastermind behind the World Economic Forum (WEF) and its dystopian dreams of centralized control, is preparing to step down as chair of the board of trustees, according to the Financial Times.
This announcement comes after Klaus Schwab announced his resignation as executive chairman of the WEF last year.
In an email to WEF staff members, Schwab announced he would be officially stepping down as executive chairman and transitioning to non-executive chairman.
After five decades of steering the WEF into a playground for elites, Schwab’s exit signals what could be the long-overdue unraveling of a technocratic agenda that aimed to dictate how the rest of us live, eat, travel, and think.
Schwab’s announcement follows months of internal chaos, scandal, and growing global backlash against his Orwellian vision.
The WEF — best known for its annual Davos conference where billionaires, bureaucrats, and corporate overlords lecture working-class citizens on cutting back their lifestyles “for the planet” — is reeling from allegations of discrimination, harassment, and a total loss of credibility.
While Schwab insists in his internal letter that the forum is still “more important and relevant than ever,” the writing is on the wall.
The same man who once gleefully proclaimed that by 2030 “you’ll own nothing and be happy” is now preparing to quietly slip into the shadows.
“I am deeply convinced that in today’s special context the forum is more important and relevant than ever before,” Schwab said in an internal email obtained by FT.
“It is also financially very well equipped thanks to successful financial management since its beginning. What is essential now after the turmoil of the last months, is to recover our sense of mission,” he added.
More from FT:
Schwab did not give a timeline for his departure from the organisation, of which he was executive chair for more than half a century. But the WEF said in a statement to the Financial Times that the process should be completed by January 2027•
Schwab’s signal to the board of trustees that he would resign as non-executive chair of the board of trustees “came as a surprise” given he only transitioned into the job in the past few months, said one of the people with knowledge of the matter.
[…]
Shortly after Schwab’s resignation last May the Wall Street Journal published accusations of discrimination and harassment made by several Black and female employees against Schwab and other managers.
The organisation denied all of the claims. Last month the WEF said external lawyers hired to perform an investigation into the claims did not find it had committed any legal violations and did not substantiate allegations of misconduct against Schwab.
The founder, who will now focus on writing his memoirs, said making the announcement on April 1 had special significance given that he had started to develop the concept of a “global village” on this exact date 55 years ago.
The timing couldn’t be more telling. Just one day before Schwab’s announcement, President Trump dropped a tariff bombshell on the global economy, slapping hefty levies on imports and vowing “reciprocal tariffs” to level the playing field for American workers.
The question is no longer if the Great Reset will collapse—but how fast.
The 1:49 X video is well worth a look.
Biden Handed Out CDLs Like Candy… Now US Highways Are a Public Safety and National Security Nightmare
by Gord Magill | American Truckers United
April 5th, 2025 9:33 AM
Several major highway collisions across the U.S. have raised serious red flags about public safety and national security threats.
American motorists remain entirely unaware that tens of thousands—if not hundreds of thousands of migrant truck drivers, some of whom cannot read English- are operating fully loaded 80,000-pound big rigs on the nation’s highways.
The latest big rig crash occurred just weeks ago in Austin, Texas, involving a migrant driver who spoke little English but held a non-domicile commercial driver’s license (CDL). The horrific crash left five people dead and 11 injured.
Post
American Truckers
@atutruckers
ATU has confirmed: the driver behind today’s horrific Austin, TX crash—killing 5 and injuring 11—barely spoke English. Experts say he was almost certainly on a Non-Domicile CDL. Special interest groups have flooded our roads with unvetted, unqualified, untrained drivers, endangering us all!
9:43 PM · Mar 14, 2025
https://x.com/atutruckers/status/1900724530395459785
For the globalists & their Democrat-Bolshevik minions, carnage on the roadways is an acceptable price to pay for accelerating the Great Replacement.
WSJ Opinion – Notable & Quotable: Thomas Sowell on Tariffs
‘People hang on to their money until they figure out what you’re going to do. And when a lot of people hang on to their money, you can get results such as you got during the Great Depression.’
https://archive.ph/C4Mwu#selection-2519.0-2523.192
From an episode of “Uncommon Knowledge with Peter Robinson,” recorded April 1:
Mr. Robinson: What do you make of the present president of the United States and his tariffs?
Thomas Sowell: It’s painful to see a ruinous decision from back in the 1920s being repeated.
Now, insofar as he’s using these tariffs to get very strategic things settled, he is satisfied with that. But if you set off a worldwide trade war, that has a devastating history.
Everybody loses because everybody follows suit. And all that happens is that you get a great reduction in international trade.
It’s disturbing in another sense. Franklin D. Roosevelt, when he was president in the 1930s, said that you have to try things. And if they don’t work, then you admit it, you abandon that, you go on to something else and you try that until you come across something that does work.
That’s not a bad approach if you are operating within a known system of rules. But if you are the one who’s making the rules, then all the other people have no idea what you’re going to do next. And that is a formula for having people hang on to their money until they figure out what you’re going to do.
And when a lot of people hang on to their money, you can get results such as you got during the Great Depression of the 1930s. So if this is just a set of short-run ploys for various objectives limited in time, fine, maybe.
But if this is going to be the policy for four long years, that you’re going to try this, you’re going to try that, you’re going to try something else, a lot of people are going to wait.
I think [about] what happened in the stock market recently, when things came down substantially for quite a while. I note that various people are holding on to their money before they do anything, because they don’t know where this is going to lead.
Austin Public Health loses $15 million to federal grant cuts
Austin Public Health is losing millions in funding and 27 full-time employees due to cuts at the federal level, the agency’s director said.
Five of Austin Public Health’s grants have been eliminated so far, resulting in the loss of an estimated $15 million over time. That money paid for APH’s Refugee Services Clinic, COVID vaccination program and diabetes care program, among other services.
At an Austin City Council public health committee meeting Wednesday, APH Director Adrienne Sturrup described learning about the cancellation of funds that filter through the Texas Department of State Health Services, one grant at a time, across recent weeks.
“I’ve called it death by a thousand cuts,” she said.
Sturrup expressed concern about more cuts that could be coming.
“There is no federal windfall that’s going to come through to support our efforts,” she said. “It will really be, unfortunately, us taking a hard look at what are the things that we just can’t support, and where we’re going to have to turn to the community for help.”
Sturrup said APH is working with City Council to extend certain affected programs with local funding — but some may shut down entirely. One program in limbo is a clinic that provides vaccinations and medical support to refugees and asylum seekers.
“We will be able to float that program for a little bit longer,” Sturrup said.
But there are no guarantees about the program’s future. Sturrup said similar programs from agencies in other jurisdictions have had to shut down.
“They can’t afford to take the risk to continue to provide services with the uncertainty of reimbursement,” she said.
https://www.kut.org/health/2025-04-04/austin-public-health-aph-tx-federal-grants-funding-cuts-layoffs
That money paid for APH’s Refugee Services Clinic, COVID vaccination program
Funny how it tales Federal $$ to fund superfluous programs,
How the CDC’s widespread layoffs cut lifesaving health programs
Drowning prevention. Hotlines to report school shootings. Contraceptive guidelines. Tips from former smokers on how to quit.
Hundreds of employees who worked in these programs at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention were laid off Tuesday, part of widespread job cuts across the Department of Health and Human Services designed to streamline the federal bureaucracy.
Some of the biggest job losses took place in the CDC center that tries to prevent injury and violence, by providing advice on appropriate use of car and booster seats to guidance on fall prevention for older adults. The injury prevention division lost all but 12 of its 130-member staff.
Some reproductive health staffers had more than 20 or 30 years of experience. They chose not to retire when the government offered buyouts in late January, one employee of that division said. “They were playing Russian roulette, hoping they would get to stay and hopefully save the program.”
In many communities, primary care providers “aren’t aware of how much prevention can be done for Alzheimer’s disease,” the employee said. An estimated 45 percent of cases of Alzheimer’s can be prevented or delayed by properly managing risk factors, including high cholesterol, high blood pressure and hearing loss, the employee said. The funds for this year have already been sent to communities.
But when it’s time to reapply, the CDC would need new staff to process the paperwork.
“The entire branch no longer exists,” the staffer said. “Not one employee was kept.”
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/other/how-the-cdc-s-widespread-layoffs-cut-lifesaving-health-programs/ar-AA1ClhWA
The waste was phenomenal
The waste, grift and fraud is LIGHTYEARS beyond what even cynical guys like me even thought was possible. It wasn’t 5% or 10%, it’s way more than half.
LIGHTYEARS beyond what even cynical guys like me even thought was possible.
Right there with you. It is unf’in believable.
‘Foreclosure. Period,’ she said, ‘That’s really where it’s gonna come to. The short answer is foreclosure.’”
Good. Eff the lenders who are counting on taxpayers to backstop their non-performing loans to a cohort with a demonstrated history of financial mismanagement.
‘Your RIF notice is not cancelled.’ Inside a chaotic week of massive layoffs at HHS
Chaos and confusion dominated the restructuring affecting thousands of workers at the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services this week.
An HHS worker at a regional office believed that she had avoided the layoffs and was able to use her badge and begin work in the office as normal on Tuesday.
After a few hours, she received an email, shared with NPR, saying that even though she hadn’t received a RIF email yet, “it is our understanding […] that you may be among the impacted employees.” She was told to take her laptop and personal items and “exit the building as soon as possible.”
Days later, her work email access stopped working, but she still hadn’t received any official notice that she was being fired.
Vanessa Michener, a health communication specialist at the CDC who worked on HIV outreach, was notified that her position was among those being cut on Tuesday. She said she’s stunned by the chaotic way the layoffs have unfolded.
“Haphazardly doesn’t even begin to describe it,” she said. “Instead of letting people be involved in the decision making, they just randomly wiped out entire programs.”
Press officers at FDA worked on designated subject matters, like food safety, vaccines, and oncology drugs, setting up interviews with reporters and subject matter experts, and updating the public on their topics.
“None of that is going to exist now,” she said, adding she didn’t know what that would mean for the future. “It’s a bad day for journalists that relied on us. It’s a bad day for the public that relies on the news stories that you all are putting out based on the information you would get from us.”
At NIH where about 1,300 employees were laid off, there’s widespread anger and despair. Most of those cut appear to have been involved in support jobs, communications, IT, human resources, those who order supplies and specialists who handle contracts and grants
https://www.wusf.org/2025-04-05/your-rif-notice-is-not-cancelled-inside-a-chaotic-week-of-massive-layoffs-at-hhs
I just paid my taxes, the lion’s share of which will go to state-sponsored parasitism. The disbanding of the FedGov bureaucracies that coercively confiscate the fruits of my labor yet are actively hostile to me and everything I hold dear can’t come soon enough.
“Haphazardly doesn’t even begin to describe it,” she said. “Instead of letting people be involved in the decision making, they just randomly wiped out entire programs.”
That’s because manager would insist that everyone was indispensable and should not be riffed. This happens all the time in the private sector when there is a mass layoff, managers simply told who is being let go, and often had the thankless task of letting individuals know they were being let go.
One time when I was dejobbed in a mass layoff the director made the rounds, carrying a briefcase with him. He would stop in front of your office and ask you come with him to a conference room. There he listlessly read from a script to me that my position had been eliminated, then handed me a packet. He then left to find the next victim.
Hoosier federal workers on edge over job cuts
Some people working in the Bloomington Social Security office, like claims representative Kate Dougherty, describe the situation as “terrifying.”
“It’s gotten to the point where I don’t even want to open my emails, you know, because I just don’t know what’s going to be in there,” she said.
Dougherty, a single mom, took her job as a claims representative 15 years ago.
“I needed something stable and good paying, and so I had done kind of social work stuff before, and this kind of fit the bill in terms of doing that,” she recalled.
And while it’s never been an easy job, she and her colleagues have been able to live good lives.
“All of us who work there are just regular middle-class people,” she said. “None of us are getting rich off of it. I’m able to, as a single parent, raise a child on this without having to get help.”
Now, with the threat of cuts, the job could be getting more difficult.
Dougherty said that in the Bloomington office, 12 Social Security workers serve 70,000 people.
“To think that that number would be reduced is just, I mean, it’s unconscionable,” she said. “People in this area deserve better, and we as employees deserve better.”
Bill Price, another claims specialist at the Bloomington office, argues that even if the cuts to federal jobs stopped tomorrow, the ability to attract workers has been forever harmed.
“Jobs were stable, you didn’t have to be affected by the ups and downs of the market,” he said. “So it wasn’t going to pay as much as a private sector job, but you didn’t have to look for a new job every five to six years, and that’s now gone.”
https://indianapublicmedia.org/news/hoosier-federal-workers-on-edge-over-job-cuts.php
describe the situation as “terrifying.”
Terrifying? Seriously? I mean, I know it has to suck but terrifying? You must have lived a very sheltered life.
Getting jettisoned from a FedGov job where it’s virtually impossible to get fired no matter how unproductive you are would indeed be terrifying for those who can’t compete in today’s job market.
So it wasn’t going to pay as much as a private sector job
The closest private sector gig I can think of is a customer service rep. And I’ll bet she was paid lot more.
Also, worth noting, that it’s far easier to get a private sector job. When I was laid off I of course applied for jobs. I found the federal application process to have so many hoops to jump through that I got nowhere fast. Plus there is the reverse discrimination to deal with when applying for fedgov jobs. I also found that the fedgov hired contractors to do the kind of work I do, and learned that the managers had never done any technical work. They were all women and minorities, of course.
FedGov has been at the forefront of the globalist-directed effort to economically disenfranchise white males and make it practically impossible for them to form or support families and households. Hence my indifference to the DOGE firings.
Fired federal workers struggling to land new jobs in tightening white-collar sector
Paul Solman: In fact, according to job placement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, the federal government cut 216,000 jobs in March. Today’s report listed only 4,000.
Gregory Daco: A large part of that is essentially reflective of the fact that, despite the very large job cut announcements, many people did not necessarily fully lose their job. If you have the types of job cuts that were announced figure directly into the jobs report, then essentially you would be very close to zero print in terms of job growth in the month of March.
And that is really the key fear with these DOGE cuts, is that you see significant cuts at the federal government level that feed into cuts for contractors, and that in turn feed into broader cuts for private sector activities, as well as potential state and local government cutbacks.
Allison Shrivastava, Indeed: Those with agencies under DOGE review saw a 50 percent increase in applications in just a single month. So, it’s pretty remarkable. It’s not something we have seen before. Very highly educated work force, primarily in white-collar work, knowledge work, entering labor market when those jobs are pretty scarce to begin with. And so reabsorbing them into that economy is going to be pretty difficult.
Paul Solman: Georgia museum curator Dana Foster was recently called back to her job, but assumes she will soon be let go again, and the first time was bad enough.
Dana Foster: I didn’t even say goodbye to my co-workers. I just kind of like left the middle of the night kind of thing. So I want to be able to go back and finish up some things and at least leave some notes for them, so that they know where I left off and where to pick up things when we’re fired again.
Paul Solman: Federal jobs, long known for stability, now perhaps the most unreliable jobs of all.
https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/fired-federal-workers-struggling-to-land-new-jobs-in-tightening-white-collar-sector
Very highly educated work force, primarily in white-collar work, knowledge work,
Most of which have totally worthless degrees!
I am afraid they are gonna struggle in the private world until they can develop a needed skill.
the world needs more ditch diggers.
Paul Krugman muh best economy ever.
Krugman retired & stopped his shameless shilling for the Biden regime just before Trump was sworn in. He’s been oddly quiet ever since, after being the garbage legacy media’s go-to propaganda mouthpiece on all things economic.
. ‘One week we’d get five showings, then weeks would go by with nothing,’ said agent Jenelle Cameron. ‘That’s been happening with all condos I’ve been trying to sell.’”
Another “Oh dear” moment in time. I fear the destruction of retail investor muppets’ 401(K) Yellen Bux “wealth” will only add to realtors’ difficulties when it comes to Always Be Closing on overpriced shacks & condos.
I fear the destruction of retail investor muppets’ 401(K) Yellen Bux “wealth”
Didn’t think about that. The reverse wealth effect.
Property days on market: 434. This one-bedroom suite with a den had an offer days after it came to market in the summer of 2023 priced at $819,900, but when the seller signed back the offer with a minor price change, the erstwhile buyer balked.
I loves me a good “entitled greedhead coulda/shoulda unloaded their alligator after getting a good offer but now they get to chase the market down.”
The commies in the Denver Statehouse just passed a law that would allow courts to order children removed from homes where the parents refuse to recognize their child’s “gender identity.” Unity with such unhinged Pol Pot wanna-bes is out of the question.
https://www.dailywire.com/news/radical-transgender-bill-in-colorado-its-coercive-control-to-not-affirm-childs-gender-identity
There is already an exodus out of government schools in the centennial state. Two elementary schools have already closed in my little burg and more will follow. A lot of families locally are switching to home schooling to escape increasingly hostile government schools, whose student bodies are becoming Hispanic.
A lot of families locally are switching to home schooling to escape increasingly hostile government schools, whose student bodies are becoming Hispanic.
The problem is when a large portion of the student body becomes English as a second language learners. That holds back the other students.
Marxists gonna Marx.
https://nitter.poast.org/ZR1Trader/status/1908546341229211704#m:
The same people who wanted the world shutdown for 2 years with mandated vax passes to go anywhere or eat at McDonalds…. are now mad about tariffs.
Masktards and vaxxtards seethe harder.
So you are trying to smear tariff critics by association with vax and lockdown pushers. One issue has nothing to do with the other.
nothing to do with the other
Of course it does. “The same people”! Marxist agenda and all.
It’s mind boggling that anyone could support endless $2T deficits. There is only one way that can end if we continue down this path, and history has ample examples.
And just like how they scared a majority into rolling up their sleeves for an untested and experimental “vaccine”, they are now trying to scare us into believing the putting the country first by eliminating budget deficits, closing the border and deporting millions of invaders, and nurturing American industry will be the end of the world.
Actually I was wrong, the issues are related.
Mask/vax mandates, lockdowns and tariffs are all punitive restrictions on the freedom of Americans to manage their own assets, interact with others and engage in productive economic activity.
France’s cognac makers, buffeted by trade wars, reel from Trump’s tariffs
COGNAC, France – Christophe Fillioux’s family estate in the cognac region of southwest France has survived for five generations, through wars and financial crises. Now, though, he has started to tear up some of his vineyards by the roots.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision this week to slap 20% tariffs on all European goods is deepening the pain for France’s nearly $3 billion cognac industry, which was already being buffeted by global trade tensions.
In October, the region’s 4,000 growers were targeted by Beijing with tariffs following the European Union’s levies on Chinese-made electric vehicles. Since then, cognac sales to China, its second-largest market by volume, have plunged by more than half.
With the U.S. – the world’s top cognac consumer – accounting for one out of every two bottles sold, Trump’s tariffs have left many growers apprehensive.
Fillioux, the 45-year-old owner and master blender of the Jean Fillioux cognac house, founded in 1894 by his great-great-great grandfather, had already torn out half a hectare of old vineyards. He plans to uproot another hectare-and-a-half next year as part of an industry-wide plan to help growers through the crisis.
“The situation is very hard to navigate. We’ve got a huge visibility problem,” Fillioux said, standing in a vineyard planted by his father in 1980 – the year he was born.
Worse may be to come. Trump has threatened 200% tariffs on European wine and spirits if Europe hits US bourbon with additional duties.
Now many of the region’s more than 4,000 growers find themselves indebted as their incomes deteriorate.
“We’re going to manage these situations as best we can with the banks,” said Florent Morillon, president of the Bureau National Interprofessionnel du Cognac (BNIC), an industry body representing growers and cognac houses including Hennessy, Remy Cointreau’s Remy Martin, Pernod Ricard’s Martell and Campari’s Courvoisier.
“All the investments made by the cognac houses, vintners, and distillers were based on business decisions. And then, external factors arrived,” Morillon added.
“We’re only at the beginning of the crisis,” said Jerome Sourriseau, a local politician and president of the group of municipalities formed by the villages around Cognac.
Unemployment is on the rise since cognac houses and suppliers stopped hiring short-term workers, while some started laying off staff, he said.
Cognac producers and suppliers, including bottling facilities, packaging firms, and makers of barrels, cork and containers, employ roughly 70,000 people in the region.
Some, like Tonnellerie Vicard, a century-old oak barrel maker, face an extra hit, as they export their goods to U.S. winemakers too.
“We’ve already had customers tell us the same night that they need to review the orders they’ve already placed, reducing volumes by the amount of tariffs they will likely have to pay”, said general manager Jerome Schmitt.
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/money/other/france-s-cognac-makers-buffeted-by-trade-wars-reel-from-trump-s-tariffs/ar-AA1CkK3S
The tariffs have nothing to do with the gluts. That’s why he’s uprooting some vines, probably his worst ones. Too many people around the globe have planted vineyards. Plus there is ever increasing competition for distilled spirits,
Trump Says ‘Every Country’ Has Called Him Since Tariff Announcement, UK PM ‘Very Happy’ With Being on Minimum Rate
Oliver JJ Lane
5 Apr 2025
President Donald Trump had “a very good dialogue” with Britain’s Prime Minister, who was “very happy” that his country wasn’t on the U.S. list of punishment tariffs.
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2025/04/05/trump-says-uk-pm-very-happy-with-britain-being-on-minimum-rate/
Canadian softwood lumber producers face paying soaring duty rates imposed by U.S.
The U.S. Department of Commerce is proposing to more than double the duty rates charged against most Canadian producers of softwood lumber.
The department said in a decision announced on Friday after an administrative review that it plans to raise duties against most Canadian lumber producers to 34.45 per cent, compared with the current 14.4 per cent.
The latest preliminary determination reflects increases to countervailing duties, after a decision last month to raise anti-dumping duties. The result is a combined hike of nearly 140 per cent being contemplated. The Commerce Department’s preliminary decisions on combined rates will be subject to further revisions before final levies are determined, with an effective date in late summer or early fall.
Under the proposed new schedule for duty rates, Vancouver-based Canfor Corp. will see its total levies soar to 46.48 per cent, up from the current 16.58 per cent. Canfor’s higher combined levy consists of 11.87 per cent for countervailing and 34.61 per cent for anti-dumping.
Canadian forests are mostly on public land, where buyers pay “stumpage fees” to provincial governments for the right to log. The U.S. argues those fees can give companies in Canada an unfair competitive advantage over their American counterparts, which harvest timber largely from private lands and bid against each other for the privilege.
But the Canadian government counters that revisions to the stumpage system over the years were designed to follow the free market, emphasizing that international panels have consistently ruled in favour of Canada as a fair trading partner.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/article-canadian-softwood-lumber-producers-face-paying-soaring-duty-rates/
This is what I’ve been saying. They didn’t pay for these forests. They don’t pay taxes on the land like we do. They don’t do any maintenance. Why would they, the forests go on like the ocean. We have plenty of trees in the US.
Ms McGhee told the tribunal she had ‘become a psychological and financial prisoner’ in her own home. She described the experience as ‘devastating’ and said she’d been left with ‘a unit that I cannot rent, sell, nor live in safely.’”
Chorus: “But at least you weren’t throwing away money on rent.”
At a national crossroad
This was a country born from the British Empire, fashioned by the English and the French, and then, in the postwar period, nurtured into modernity by a privileged place in the American sphere of influence.
Now, with each seismograph stroke of Donald Trump’s permanent marker, those old comforts are falling away. Continental free trade is fraying, and with it the fabric of the national economy. The certainty of security upheld by a benign democratic superpower has been shaken. The very sovereign persistence of a country nearing 160 years of history has been called into question.
“We’re suddenly finding ourselves on our own. This is a shock,” said Margaret MacMillan, the notable Canadian historian. “We’re facing something that we haven’t faced before, in a way – that we’re going to have to make up our own minds.”
Last year, the U.S. bought 77 per cent of the goods Canada sold abroad and provided nearly half of Canadian imports. No other trading partner comes close. But proximity and free trade have made Canada an economic adjunct to a superpower, vulnerable to the whims of its leadership – a President determined to amass for his country alone the spoils of technological progress and global trade.
“We must now think about how we ensure that the country survives in a way that we haven’t had to think about before,” said Ms. MacMillan, who is an emeritus professor at the University of Toronto and Oxford University.
History shows that mere existence is not destiny. Empires crumble. Countries crack apart. Canada’s own self-mythology, the notion of sleeping next to an elephant, suggests the very real possibility of being crushed.
“It may well be that years from now, the next generation is going to look back at Jan. 20, 2025, and see this as the day of Canadian independence, when for the first time in our history Canadians genuinely took responsibility for their own future into their own hands – and where we became truly sovereign,” said Perrin Beatty, who was a federal cabinet minister under prime ministers Joe Clark and Brian Mulroney before going on to lead Canadian Manufacturers & Exporters and the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
Or as Mr. Trump himself put it in a social-media post Friday afternoon: “ONLY THE WEAK WILL FAIL!”
It was 32 years ago that the leaders of Canada, Mexico and the United States prepared to ratify the North American free-trade agreement in a moment of triumph against opponents, whose shouts continued to ring out in Parliament as prime minister Brian Mulroney signed the deal.
Mr. Mulroney dismissed his critics as “little protesters” intent on living in a ”fortress Canada.” In Washington, meanwhile, president George H.W. Bush described NAFTA as the advent of a new day for the hemisphere.
“We have committed ourselves to a better future for our children and for generations yet unborn,” he said. The time would soon come, he said, “when trade is free from Alaska to Argentina.”
Less than three decades later, Mr. Trump was in the White House, and calling NAFTA “perhaps the worst trade deal ever made.”
In some ways, it is Mr. Trump’s views that are better aligned with the sweep of U.S. history. In 1789, George Washington signed into law the first major bill passed by the new U.S. Congress, a bill imposing new tariffs on foreign goods. Another tariff act came in 1828, followed by the 1866 abrogation of a Canadian-American Reciprocity Treaty and then, in the wake of the First World War, the Emergency Tariff of 1921 – and, less than a decade later, the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.
“Tariffs have been the rule, not the exception. We have been through at least three periods of high U.S. tariffs, each lasting from 30 to 50 years,” said Chris Alexander, a former Canadian diplomat who was minister of citizenship and immigration under Stephen Harper and now works as corporate director and adviser.
Canada, he said, has arrived at an intensely tenuous moment, the kind that can “make or break countries, alliances and economies,” Mr. Alexander said. “They have also been precursors to war – or more enduring periods of peace. We can’t afford to be simple-minded about any of this. The stakes are too high.”
“If we are going to be seeing tariffs anywhere close to the things that are being talked about – even the tariffs in place now, on steel, aluminum and autos – that’s going to leave us poorer as a country,” said Todd Hirsch, a Calgary-based economist and public speaker. “Our economy will shrink. And we will feel it, too. Unemployment will rise. People will lose their jobs. I don’t think there’s any way we can really sugarcoat this.”
In part, he said, what Mr. Trump has forced is a reckoning with the ill effects of free trade, which has “made us a little bit soft and flabby when it comes to global competitiveness. We’ve never really had to work all that hard to sell to the Americans.”
He recalled early in his career working as a research assistant at the Canada West Foundation when it helped to organize a conference toward an agreement on internal trade.
“They all announced, ‘we’re eliminating barriers to trade’ – and there were handshakes and lots of photos,” Mr. Hirsch recalled. “And then all the premiers went back to their respective capitals and nothing happened.”
That agreement is nearly as old as NAFTA itself. But its promise of breaking down the regulatory obstacles to trade between provinces has never been fully met.
“We have to try as hard as we can to fix the situation with the U.S. And I think it’s salvageable,” said Erin O’Toole, the former Conservative leader who is now with Groupe ADIT, a Paris-headquartered strategic intelligence company. He has advocated an energy pact in which Canada would assure the U.S. supplies of crude oil, critical minerals and electricity. “We could even offer to build the Keystone XL pipeline ourselves,” Mr. O’Toole said.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/world/article-canada-stands-at-a-national-crossroads-as-trump-enacts-shattering/
‘We could even offer to build the Keystone XL pipeline ourselves’
I said something along these lines recently. They have yuuge natural gas fields up there. Let’s make deal.
“We’re suddenly finding ourselves on our own. This is a shock,” said Margaret MacMillan, the notable Canadian historian.
Isn’t Canaduh a sovereign nation? Why does everyone expect us to buy their stuff and pay their bills?
DACA recipient and father of 3 deported to Mexico despite valid documentation
A 39-year-old DACA recipient and married father of three from Kansas City, Kansas, was deported last month after he left the U.S. and traveled to Mexico to visit his grandfather’s grave, according to a federal lawsuit filed Wednesday.
Evenezer Cortez-Martinez was detained March 23 at the Dallas Fort Worth International Airport as he was making his way back into the U.S., the lawsuit states.
Martinez traveled to Mexico on March 20. Upon his return he arrived at DFW, where U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents stopped him from boarding his connecting flight home to Kansas City, claiming he had a removal order filed in June 2024, the lawsuit says.
Cortez-Martinez was deported immediately to Mexico City.
According to Cortez-Martinez’s lawyer, Rekha Sharma-Crawford, her client was unaware of a removal order filed in 2024 given he has been a DACA recipient since 2014 and had successfully renewed his permit every two years. Cortez-Martinez was brought to the U.S. as a 4-year-old child.
Sharma-Crawford told CBS News in a statement Friday that his removal was “extremely out of the norm.”
“Regulations don’t permit for someone who is on Advance Parole to be subjected to expedited processing, but in terms of how advance parole works, even if someone has a removal order, that doesn’t prevent them from traveling out of the country and returning,” Sharma-Crawford said. “That’s the piece that is so jarring.”
Sharma-Crawford is urging other dreamers not to travel outside of the U.S. under the Trump administration. “If you don’t have to travel right now, you should probably not travel. It’s just too uncertain, it’s just too unknown.”
Cortez-Martinez is currently staying with an uncle in Mexico City while his wife and three children remain in Kansas City.
The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals immigration policy was established in 2012 under the Obama administration to protect unauthorized immigrants brought into the U.S. as children. As of September 2024, there were about 538,000 immigrants, known as dreamers, enrolled in DACA.
In January, a federal appeals court declared DACA unlawful, but kept the policy in place.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/daca-recipient-and-father-of-3-deported-to-mexico-despite-valid-documentation/ar-AA1CkiLZ
he had a removal order filed in June 2024
Looks like the “Deferred” part of DACA ran out on him, and during the FJB regime too.
Technically, DACA recipients are not legal residents, their deportations are simply “deferred”.
In January, a federal appeals court declared DACA unlawful, but kept the policy in place.
I love how these contradictions are simply accepted as legal rulings.
Na na na na
Na na na na
Hey hey-ey
Goodbye!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=osfydIKQMHs
Costa Rica looks to El Salvador’s gang crackdown for path to stopping violence
TECOLUCA, El Salvador (AP) — Costa Rica’s security minister toured El Salvador’s maximum-security gang prison on Friday as part of his review of the measures that El Salvador has taken to reduce violence caused by powerful street gangs during a now three-year offensive under a state of emergency.
Costa Rica Justice and Peace Minister Gerald Campos Valverde said he was visiting on orders of President Rodrigo Chaves to “see the good practices of the Salvadoran people with the goal of combating crime and to returning rights to all citizens.”
In November, Costa Rica bestowed its highest diplomatic honor on El Salvador President Nayib Bukele for his success in lowering levels of violence during his three-year campaign against powerful street gangs.
El Salvador has lived under a state of emergency that suspends fundamental rights like access to a lawyer. Some 84,000 people have been arrested, accused of gang ties.
Homicides have plummeted in El Salvador and the improved security has fueled Bukele’s popularity.
“El Salvador’s rescue from those nefarious claws is also helping the peace in our region,” Chaves said when he presented Bukele with the recognition last year. “The fight against organized crime in any part of Central America is welcome. The reach and influence and bad example of the gangs must be reduced.”
After his tour, Campos said that Costa Rica would not continue allowing criminals to be arrest by police only to see them quickly freed by the judicial system.
“We are going to take all of the good practices” back to Costa Rica “to give Costa Ricans a place of peace and tranquility,” he said.
El Salvador Security Minister Gustavo Villatoro said earlier Friday that El Salvador was pleased to share its experience with Costa Rica, a country that until recently had been a reference for peace, but now struggles with bloodshed like El Salvador once had.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/costa-rica-looks-to-el-salvadors-gang-crackdown-for-path-to-stopping-violence/ar-AA1CkOi7
‘now struggles with bloodshed like El Salvador once had’
The first time I went to Costa Rica I was in the fourth grade. It was as peaceful a place as one could imagine. The police didn’t even carry guns.
A lot of people think Costa Rica is some sort of LatAm paradise, when it’s really just another lawless sh!thole.
The is a youtube travel blogger, Gabriel Travels, or something like that, who was in San Jose, Costa Rica. As he was walking around down town he was suddenly being followed by three men. He fortunately saw some cops and headed towards them and his stalkers disappeared. IIRC, the cops told him to not stand out so much. He appeared visibly rattled.
“Costa Rica’s security minister toured El Salvador’s maximum-security gang prison…”
A Lockheed C-130 with supplemental oxygen for the crew would be more effective and result in a permanent solution.
Pete Hegseth could cut the military by 90,000 simply by raising, then enforcing, standards after the Biden, Obama, and Clinton administrations imposed DEI “leadership” and made “inclusivity” the top priority for recruitment & advancement.
https://www.military.com/daily-news/2025/04/03/army-mulling-dramatic-reduction-of-tens-of-thousands-of-troops.html
You will own nothing.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/entire-generation-robbed-of-promise-afforded-to-their-parents-and-grandparents/news-story/2e53dbd17a5cbefad4f6f4854fd4294a
The middle class around the globe just doesn’t want to believe that the globalists want them gone. Boxcars are problematic so just make it onerous to have a family. Yeah, the replacement will take time, but the cabal’s master is very patient.
The Cabal’s master dwells in the infernal regions, and it’s always gratifying when he’s joined by those like Diane Feinstein & John McCain who served him so ably in this life.
Boxcars are problematic so just make it onerous to have a family.
Ouch.
“The time it now takes for young people to save a deposit means they’re not moving into their own homes and making big decisions like starting a family until far later in life,” Ms Harrison said.
An entire generation of Aussies will end up in Kleenex tissues! 🙂
$1.8 million for a three-bedroom home
https://www.mercurynews.com/2025/04/04/sale-closed-in-fremont-1-8-million-for-a-three-bedroom-home-2-2/
* a 1,400-sqft spec ranch 🙂
Who will buy all those shanties at that price when a tidal waver of owners retire and decide to move to a low/no tax state?
“Who will buy all those shanties at that price when a tidal waver of owners retire and decide to move to a low/no tax state?”
I don’t know who will buy them now but quite a few of the people who already sold those 3/2 track shacks for those astronomical $ listed already moved to Jupiter Fl. in the last few years and pushed the housing prices through the roof here, albeit not quite as bad as there.
How does the Energy Department justify its existence?
https://x.com/dailyjobcuts/status/1908329887342920160
Wasn’t that bald headed, lipstick wearing, drag queen and suitcase thief holding down the fort at the Dept of Energy?
IIRC, it was in charge of nuclear waste disposal, until it was busted stealing people’s luggage at the airport. Not sure what its qualifications were for the job, other than being deranged. When it became a liability for FJB it was disappeared.
The private equity locusts are coming after Section 8 housing.
https://x.com/JohnWake/status/1908241257878733053
5,914 homes in Memphis?
Dey be owning tha whole hood!
And just like that, the Soros Scum reappear on city streets.
https://x.com/LauraLoomer/status/1908584809590645206
Commie urban sh!tholes are going to be lit this year!
Elon Musk On Tariffs, Trump
Farzad
8 hours ago
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vFLorn6MQgQ
8 minutes.
I have a friend I consult with every few months. You could say he’s my Professor Bull counterpart and not be far off the mark. He wouldn’t hesitate to be 100% in equities if stocks seemed poised for a rebound.
Given that he’s currently assuming the crash position, I’m in no hurry to buy the dip for now.
Wait for the sucker rally.
Jim Jordan Questions Ex-FBI Agent About Bombshell Hunter Biden Report
Forbes Breaking News
8 hours ago
At Tuesday’s House Judiciary Committee hearing, Rep. Jim Jordan (R-OH) questioned Stewart Whitson, Senior Director of Federal Affairs at the Foundation for Government Accountability and a former FBI Supervisory Special Agent, about a report pertaining to the FBI’s handling of the Hunter Biden laptop.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zDgOBiquBmA
3 minutes.
‘The couple decided to put their park-model home up for sale in November, shortly after the results of the U.S. election. The couple closed the deal with a buyer this year, with the new owner taking possession about a week ago. ‘We took on a loss on the sale, and it was worth it just to leave’
It was cheaper than renting Bryan. These are those awful single wide park things, I’m sure that played no part in the a$$ pounding.
‘It’s nothing physical … but usually sharp comments, [like] ‘it’s time for you to leave’ or ‘you can go anytime you want,’ ‘north is your way home’
Sounds like I’m not the only one sick of yer sh$t Ross.
‘Non-conforming mortgages that don’t need Fannie or Freddie backing are available, but can be significantly more expensive and harder to qualify for. His firm has been able to obtain the Fannie Mae list thanks to a source, but doesn’t have access to Freddie Mac information’
And of course Jake’s firm will advise you on this inside information if you are a fooked condo, for a fee. This is sound lending. Fannie and freddie are throwing a tire tool at sellers ankles.
‘Are you kidding me?’ Lisa said. ‘Ken’s been on their insurance for 30 years, and we’ve never had any problems. We never had any claims’
Lisa you and Ken are the model insurance customers. Congrats!
‘We are hearing from some business owners… that have house vacation rentals here in Palm Springs… they are noticing some drop off from that,’ said Joy Meridith Brown, owner of Crystal Fantasy in downtown Palm Springs. ‘And I think that that was our first real alert’
Not quite true Joy, there was that WSJ article about all the short term rental foreclosures a few months ago.
‘Selling price: $655,000 (February, 2025). Previous selling prices: $725,000 (June, 2019); $475,000 (November, 2016)…This one-bedroom suite with a den had an offer days after it came to market in the summer of 2023 priced at $819,900, but when the seller signed back the offer with a minor price change, the erstwhile buyer balked. ‘One week we’d get five showings, then weeks would go by with nothing,’ said agent Jenelle Cameron. ‘That’s been happening with all condos I’ve been trying to sell’
This is interesting. It’s a straight 70k a$$ pounding for the loanowner, but he gave the previous seller a 250k windfall. And turned down a higher offer previously. It’s like a Greek tragedy.
‘she expected the issue would be quickly resolved. Instead, she’s been immersed in an ugly four-year dispute with her neighbours, strata manager and the apartment block’s developer over who is responsible for the common area defect. In 2021, Ms de Jong Heybroek sank her retirement savings into the purchase of three units in the complex…In 2024 she tried to sell one unit, listing it for almost $200,000 less than her original purchase price. It didn’t sell’
‘Recently, Ms de Jong Heybroek’s bathroom fan fell out of the ceiling. Mittagong Central Developments owner Jeff Knox lives on the ground floor with his wife. The pair own two apartments in the building. When Ms de Jong Heybroek tried to sell one of her units, Mr Knox contacted her real estate agent unhappy he had described the apartment as being sold ‘warts and all’ in the property listing’
‘In texts to the agent, sighted by the ABC, he claimed Ms de Jong Heybroek’s water ingress was due to ’50 dead pigeons’ and their eggs blocking drainpipes, which was not his responsibility. As the fight to have the defects rectified gets bogged down in legal action, apartment owners’ strata fees have risen, in part due to increasing insurance premiums. The building’s insurance broker has struggled to find a strata underwriter willing to take on the risk due to the defects, work rectification order and NCAT proceedings. ‘My fees used to be $800 a quarter and are now $4,600 a quarter per unit,’ Ms de Jong Heybroek said. She has been issued a notice of recovery action after falling behind on her levies, which is the first step in potential bankruptcy proceedings’
That’s a lot to deal with Annouchka. So my counsel is not today, or maybe even this week, but some day you’ll see, you are the winnah!
What’s With Carney & Europe?
Angry Mortgage Podcast
13 hours ago
Sure Carney knows people there, up to a couple years ago he called himself a European. But Europe is NOT ever going to be a huge Canadian Trading partner so is it just a show? Just politics? Just another photo op?
Ron explains
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cRPl3XsWWMc
7:30. He he…
But Europe is NOT ever going to be a huge Canadian Trading partner
What will make that tricky is that both will want to have a trade surplus with each other.
Do you lose sleep when uber-bulls like Kramer issue dire crash warnings?
If so, perhaps you should consider derisking your asset HODLings.
Bitcoin.com News
Mad Money’s Jim Cramer Warns of 1987-Style Market Crash Amid Tariff-Driven Volatility
By Jamie Redman
Sat Apr 5 17:30:12 EST 2025
Jim Cramer, CNBC’s “Mad Money” host, has warned investors of a potential stock market crash mirroring 1987’s Black Monday, citing escalating Trump tariffs and recent market turbulence as catalysts for renewed economic uncertainty.
Jim Cramer, the volatile host of CNBC’s “Mad Money,” has sparked alarm with his prediction of a market crash reminiscent of 1987’s Black Monday, when the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) plummeted 22% in a single day. His warnings follow a brutal two-day sell-off on April 3–4, 2025, which saw the Dow plunge 2,231 points amid fears that Trump’s tariffs on imports could exacerbate inflation and stall economic growth.
Cramer, a former hedge fund manager turned media personality, attributed the recent downturn to President Trump’s refusal to scale back tariffs targeting foreign goods, particularly Mexican beer and auto parts. He singled out companies like Constellation Brands—the distributor of Grupo Modelo’s Corona beer—as vulnerable to tariff-driven cost spikes, noting, “The last thing it needs is tariffs. This dog played my child trust until we finally jettisoned it at a big loss.” Cramer also criticized Trump’s inaction, arguing that without intervention, markets could face a “man-made obliteration” akin to Black Monday.
…
https://news.bitcoin.com/mad-moneys-jim-cramer-warns-of-1987-style-market-crash-amid-tariff-driven-volatility/
‘Cramer also criticized Trump’s inaction, arguing that without intervention, markets could face a “man-made obliteration” akin to Black Monday.’
Seems like Jimbo is looking for a bailout in the wrong president.
Warren Buffett’s been waiting years for a crash like this — but he might not be buying just yet
Story by Theron Mohamed • 1d
…
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/warren-buffett-s-been-waiting-years-for-a-crash-like-this-but-he-might-not-be-buying-just-yet/ar-AA1CiS3f
Does Rich Dad somehow make money when panicked investors convert their hard earned cash into digital tulips?
Bitcoin.com News
Economics
Robert Kiyosaki Says Crash Has Landed—Recession Here, Depression Next, Buy Bitcoin
By Kevin Helms
Sat Apr 5 20:30:43 EST 2025
Robert Kiyosaki declares the recession official and a depression imminent, urging urgent escape from collapsing paper assets into gold, silver, and bitcoin before it’s too late.
Robert Kiyosaki, author of the best-selling book Rich Dad Poor Dad, has once again sounded the alarm on the global economy—this time declaring that the financial collapse he has long warned about is no longer a future threat but a present reality. His book has been a global best-seller for over two decades and translated into more than 50 languages worldwide.
Kiyosaki shared on social media platform X on April 4: “I warned the biggest stock market crash in history was going to wipe out the financial security of millions of investors… especially my generation… the baby boomers.” The famous author continued:
That stock market crash arrived today. We are definitely in a recession and more than likely… a depression.
The acclaimed author explained why he’s been urgently cautioning baby boomers in particular, writing: “Why was I warning boomers? Because boomers are out of time… or as pilots say: ‘They are running out of runway.’ They do not have time to ‘Invest for the long term in stocks, bonds, mutual funds, or ETFs.’”
Turning to solutions, Kiyosaki offered his long-standing advice: “What can a person do? As I have been suggesting for years, I suggest looking at non-Wall Street assets.” He stressed: “For many years I have suggested saving real gold, real silver, and today bitcoin.”
Backing his recommendation, the renowned financial educator wrote: “Why: Because after this paper market crash wipes out millions of fake paper assets… odds are the Fed and Treasury will turn the printing presses on full speed… printing trillions in fake money which becomes even more fake… And real money… gold, silver, and bitcoin go up in value.”
He concluded:
If you still have ‘some runway left,’ you may want to save real money which are gold, silver, and bitcoin.
Kiyosaki has consistently warned about the collapse of fiat currencies, the decline of the U.S. dollar, and the failure of traditional financial systems. He views gold, silver, and bitcoin as “real money” and essential lifeboats in what he believes is a rapidly sinking economic ship. In December last year, Kiyosaki predicted a historic crash, advising boomers to sell homes, stocks, and bonds before it’s too late.
…
https://news.bitcoin.com/robert-kiyosaki-says-crash-has-landed-recession-here-depression-next-buy-bitcoin/
Legendary fund manager sends blunt 9-word message on stock market tumble
Here’s what could happen to stocks next.
Todd Campbell
Apr 5, 2025 12:17 PM EDT
The stock market fell significantly after President Trump announced widespread tariffs on April 2. The so-called “Liberation Day” announcement included tariff rates higher than hoped, forcing investors to reset expectations for the U.S. economy and corporate earnings.
Given recent data, a potential slowdown in the U.S. economy may already be underway, and the risk that tariffs could push us into an outright recession casts a long shadow over stocks, given that stock prices’ valuation is largely determined by future expectations for revenue and profit growth.
Historically, steep sell-offs like we’re witnessing in the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which were down 17% and 22% early on April 4, respectively, from their January highs, create opportunities for risk-tolerant investors to ‘buy the dip.’
The potential that investors go bargain hunting has caught the attention of veteran Wall Street bond manager Bill Gross. Gross has been navigating markets since 1971, and he co-founded Pacific Investment Management Co, or PIMCO, a massive firm with $2 trillion under management. He formerly managed over $270 billion via PIMCO’s Total Return Fund, earning him the “Bond King” nickname before moving to Janus Henderson Investors from 2014 to 2019.
Gross has seen a lot over his 50-year career, and he offered a blunt message about the stock market this week.
What happens next to the economy is uncertain, but increasing unemployment and rekindled inflation isn’t a great recipe. Moreover, President Trump’s tariff tussle risks fueling inflation’s fire, and given consumers are already cash-strapped, it may take a big toll on corporate profit and earnings growth.
Bill Gross throws cold water on ‘buy the dip’ mantra
Bill Gross’s long-time Wall Street experience means that he’s seen many market pops and drops, including the Nifty 50, skyrocketing inflation in the 1970s, the S&L crisis in the late 80s and early 90s, the Internet boom and bust, the Great Recession, Covid, and the 2002 bear market.
In short, Gross has been around the block, making his take on markets this week particularly worrisome.
“Investors should not try to ‘catch a falling knife,” wrote Gross bluntly in an email to Bloomberg.
Buying the dip in the S&P 500 has been a winning strategy historically, but the pain endured while stocks find their bottom can be hard to withstand. And it can take years to recover losses. The situation is worse for individual stocks, which may never get back to their previous highs (case in point: Cisco Systems (CSCO) still trades below its 1999 peak).
“This is an epic economic and market event similar to 1971 and the end of the gold standard except with immediate negative consequences,” said Gross.
In the early 70s, a collection of 50 leading stocks became regarded as “one decision” stocks – buy only. Money was concentrated within them, setting up a significant market drop when they peaked in 1972. Sound familiar?
It’s a bit unclear what will happen next. Fed Chair Powell admitted that he thinks the tariff impact will be worse than previously forecast, perhaps setting up rate cuts again. Meanwhile, President Trump is on the airwaves pressing for Powell to cut rates—a strategy that hasn’t worked in the past.
Perhaps the recent market drop will encourage negotiations that lower tariffs, easing their impact. But that remains to be seen, and Gross isn’t convinced.
“Trump can’t back down anytime soon,” said Gross. “He’s too macho for that.”
…
https://www.thestreet.com/investing/stocks/legendary-fund-manager-sends-blunt-9-word-message-on-stock-market-tumble
Financial Times
Trump tariffs
Tariffs spark US junk bond sell-off as recession risk mounts
Corporate credit is ‘the canary in the coal mine’ for a faltering economy, analysts warn
The tariffs announced by Donald Trump this week are set to pile economic pressure on consumers
© Getty Images
Harriet Clarfelt and Will Schmitt in New York
Published 2 hours ago
Donald Trump’s “liberation day” tariff blitz has sparked the biggest sell-off in the US junk bond market since 2020, signalling growing angst among investors that an economic slowdown will hit corporate America.
The premium investors demand to hold speculative-rated corporate debt compared to that offered by US government bonds — a proxy for default risk — has shot up by 1 percentage point to 4.45 percentage points since Wednesday, ICE BofA data shows. That is the biggest rise since coronavirus triggered widespread lockdowns in 2020.
The sell-off in corporate bonds since Wednesday, when Trump took US tariffs to their highest level in over a century, highlights investors’ worries that the move will hit economic output and raise unemployment, leaving weaker companies struggling to repay their debts, analysts said.
“Credit is obviously a canary in the coal mine,” said Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco. “Credit tends to go first . . . if the economy’s going to roll over, the odds of a recession pick up and then you’re going to see spreads blow out.”
On Friday, JPMorgan slashed its US economic forecasts, predicting a contraction of 0.3 per cent in 2025 — down from an earlier growth estimate of 1.3 per cent. It also said the jobless rate would rise to 5.3 per cent, from 4.2 per cent in March.
Companies in the household goods, retail and automobile parts sectors are among those hardest hit by the rout in lower-rated debt.
Column chart of Two-day spread moves (percentage points) showing Junk bond spreads jump by most since March 2020
The pain was most acute in the weakest pockets of the high-yield market; the average spread on debt rated triple-C and below topped 10 percentage points for the first time in roughly eight months.
“The junkiest of the junk stuff [is] underperforming,” said Eric Winograd, chief economist at AllianceBernstein.
…
“It also said the jobless rate would rise to 5.3 per cent, from 4.2 per cent in March.”
Has there ever been an increase in the unemployment rate off a low base that plateaued at 5.3 percent and thenceforth stopped rising?
I didn’t think so.
Markets
Jeremy Grantham’s right-hand man says the S&P 500 is still 30-40% overvalued — and tariffs just sank its best bull case
By William Edwards
trader upset angry
Reuters / Andrew Burton
Apr 5, 2025, 2:00 AM PT
– Trump’s tariffs threaten the US stock market’s appeal, says Ben Inker of GMO.
– Tariffs could hurt large-cap growth firms’ profit margins, impacting market performance.
– Inker advises investing in non-US stocks due to valuation discounts and economic risks in the US.
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-sp500-overvalued-tariffs-trade-war-inker-gmo-2025-4
“But he says the sense of safety he and his wife once felt living in the U.S. crumbled after Trump’s election last year.“
I love it when these snowflakes leave, like Rosie, I bet the door hit her big caboose on the way out.
There was a Trump protest in our little (very pro Trump) town today. There was this rather large Rosie O’Donnell type holding up a sign that said “make America a democracy again”
I told her that America has been, and is a representative republic, and that her sign might as well say “I am an idiot”
She yelled something vulgar to me. It made my day:)