We Haven’t Had A Bubble Like This Since The Bubble Prior To The 2008-2009 Market Collapse

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “On March 1, New York real-estate agent Peter Ocean thought he had reason to celebrate: His clients accepted an offer of $10.25 million for their four-bedroom co-op in Lenox Hill, which had been on and off the market for more than a year, last asking $10.5 million. Then came President Trump’s trade war. Ocean was riding the subway to his office on March 13 when the couple’s agent called to say her client’s stocks were down 25% and the deal was off. ‘The first words out of his mouth were, ‘Trump f-ked us,’ Ocean said. ‘We’ve been on a wild ride the last two weeks. Buyers are nervous about everything,’ said real-estate agent Aaron Kirman of Christie’s International Real Estate Southern California, who had a roughly $65 million deal fall through in Bel-Air.”

“In Texas, Alan Golightly, and his wife, Angela Wise, had a buyer back out of a deal to purchase their roughly 4,000-square-foot home just outside of Houston. They listed the house for $1.2 million on April 3 and held their first open house on April 5. They had a verbal offer for $1.3 million that night, Alan said. They accepted it on April 6 and were expecting a contract from the buyer’s agent that evening. They never received a contract. On the morning of April 7, the buyer’s agent said her clients had pulled their offer. ‘She said they were just not sure about the market and how everything was shaking out,’ said Alan. ‘It was a little disappointing, but I don’t think we were counting our chickens before they hatched, so to speak.'”

Business Insider. “When Katherine Ann Reniers bought a house in Rockville, Maryland, two years ago, she thought her financial future was mapped out. Reniers, 53, was on track to have served two decades in the federal government in November 2025. At that point, she’d be eligible for a pension that paid out nearly $6,000 a month and covered health insurance, according to documents reviewed by Business Insider. Reniers’ plans abruptly changed in March, when she received emails notifying her that her position at the US Agency for International Development would be abolished on July 1 — five months short of Reniers’ 20-year anniversary. The gap means Reniers won’t be able to receive her full federal pension until she’s 62, and based on federal rules for foreign service retirement, her monthly payments will be an estimated $3,000 less than she planned. ‘I’ve been panicking,’ Reniers, a single mom of two children, told BI. ‘I realized it wasn’t enough to cover my monthly mortgage and medical bills. So I did not take the Fork, and now I’m shooting myself in the foot.'”

“Further, while she could have retired at any time after her 20th anniversary and received that full pension, she won’t be eligible for the smaller pension until she turns 62. Reniers will receive a severance package worth one year’s annual salary and is also planning to sell an apartment she owns in Belgium to help establish a financial safety net for monthly expenses. ‘I’m lucky I have that, so I can make sure to keep my home in Maryland,’ she said. ‘How do I find a job with a similar salary when I’m 53 with a disability?’ ‘I’m so angry right now,’ Reniers said, adding that participating in protests and talking to lawmakers on Capitol Hill is helping ease some of the anxiety. ‘That’s what I want to spend my time on.'”

The Washington Post. “For potential buyers, especially in markets with low inventory, there’s uncertainty as they consider what, for most, is the biggest financial decision of their lives. Are those listing prices strategically low to attract buyers or high to hope for a high-flying bid? ‘Those two approaches and everything else except for one are false flags,’ said Gary Ditto, of the Ditto Group in Bethesda, Maryland. ‘They’re fundamentally flawed.’ Whether markets heat up or cool down, determining ‘fair market value’ is vital. Pricing a property too high, meanwhile, is an iffy gamble as well. ‘As they say in the military: ‘Hope is not a strategy,’ Ditto said.”

“When a job offer meant a move from Alexandria, Virginia, to the Richmond area, Elaine and Lee Bobo initially rented a home. When their landlords sought to return to the home, the Bobos entered the market in 2020. Bobo found an agent who was the sister of a college friend and a lifelong Richmond resident. The market was moving fast. Bobo noticed a listing on a Thursday afternoon. They viewed the property the next morning at 10 and put in an offer. Offers were to be reviewed Sunday, but then came the curveball: a competing offer that was good only through Friday evening. But it took more than timing. They offered a fast closing and other conditions, most importantly an escalation clause. It boosted the price $50,000 above the listing but secured the deal. Ultimately, the purchase decision comes down not to the listing price, but what the eventual buyer is comfortable paying. ‘As long as you feel comfortable with the price where you’re not getting bilked or anything like that,’ Bobo said, ‘all you’re doing is you’re adding value.'”

The Suncoast Spotlight in Florida. “Angie Ramos is concerned. The Sarasota-based Coldwell Banker Realtor has five listings that have sat for months. Buyer interest is at a minimum. And the stock market has been turbulent. ‘We are just flooded with inventory,’ Ramos said. What she’s experiencing isn’t uncommon along the Suncoast. Home values in the region are falling faster than almost anywhere else in the country. Charlotte County recorded the steepest drop of any large county in the nation — those with 50,000 or more inhabitants — with home values falling by 8% over the last year, according to Zillow. Following close behind were Sarasota County, with a 7% decline, Manatee County at 5%, Pinellas County at 4% and Pasco at 3%. Home values in Hillsborough and Polk each dropped by 1.8%. DeSoto County values dropped by 1%.”

“Chris Jones, an economist at the University of South Florida and founder of Florida Economic Advisors, has been warning about unsustainable price growth since 2022, when home values in the region rose by more than 30% in a single year. ‘We’ve just seen prices basically get out of control over the course of the last seven to eight years,’ Jones said. “And you know, we haven’t had a bubble like this since the bubble prior to the 2008-2009 market collapse.'”

“Despite the gloomy data, some in the industry believe a floor is in sight. ‘You can always tell the bottom is coming because you start to see obscene deals go through — deals that probably shouldn’t go through start to happen,’ said Alex Krumm, a past president of Realtors Association of Sarasota and Manatee. ‘You can also tell the top the same way. And we’re seeing those deals right now in real estate.’ Ramos, who became a Realtor about six years ago, said this is the first time she’s experienced a jolt in the market. She’s redoubled her marketing efforts because of the stagnant buyer pool. ‘It’s been tough. There’s no crystal ball,’ she said. ‘People are afraid right now.’ Despite her worries and the challenging market conditions, she’s also banking on the long-term trends. ‘What goes down must go back up,’ she said. ‘It always does.'”

Multifamily Dive on California. “After maturing in December, the loan backing Parkmerced, a 3 million-square-foot, 3,221-unit complex in San Francisco, went into receivership in March, according to a Morningstar Credit report. San Diego-based real estate services provider Douglas Wilson Cos. has been appointed receiver and will take control of property management and operations. Funds were provided to handle operational expenses. Future lender actions may include a foreclosure or an action against the guarantor, according to Morningstar. Last year, property owner Robert Rosania, the founder of San Francisco-based apartment investor Maximus, requested the loan go into servicing, citing low occupancy and a December maturity. The borrower failed to close on a loan modification that had been negotiated, according to Morningstar.”

“In a separate report, data firm Trepp noted the $980 million portion of the $1.5 billion senior loan backing the Parkmerced property in San Francisco went delinquent in March, along with the property’s $275 million mezzanine loan. Parkmerced was built in 1944 and renovated in 2009. The property was appraised at $2.11 billion at securitization in 2019 but fell to $1.39 billion in July 2024. Trepp said Parkmerced had multifamily’s biggest delinquent loan in March. In March 2024, occupancy was reported at 81% at the property, and the debt service coverage ratio was well below breakeven, according to Morningstar Credit. Parkmerced isn’t the only troubled property in Rosania’s portfolio. He is also listed as the owner of The Cove at Tiburon, a 33-building, 283-unit property in Tiburon, California. In January 2025, The Cove at Tiburon’s loan originally went on the watch list due to its pending maturity. The servicer reached out to the borrower multiple times to get an update on its plans once the loan matured, according to Morningstar Credit. However, the borrower has not yet indicated its plans at maturity.”

The Globe and Mail in Canada. “33 Mill St., No. 2604, Toronto. Asking price: $2,425,000 (February, 2025). Selling price: $2,350,000 (March, 2025). Previous selling price: $2,250,000 (June, 2023). The Pure Spirit building in the historic Distillery District has nearly 400 suites, but only small number of them can offer more than 2,000 square feet of living space, such as this two-bedroom unit. Ten potential buyers toured the space and one returned with an offer, though it was $75,000 below the asking price. ‘The larger condos that make sense for a specific buyer type are selling well,’ said agent Alex Obradovich. ‘But the dime-a-dozen, first-time buyer condos are sitting. There are over 2,600 condos for sale downtown right now and the vast majority of them are either studios, one-bedroom or one-bedroom plus dens under 800 square feet.'”

Manchester Evening News in the UK. “The housing estate was built 15 years ago, but one patch of grass with a lonely-looking playground is still costing residents. When the new-build estate off Newbold Hall Drive in Rochdale was completed in 2010, Halima Ali was excited to get a glimpse of her new home. With visions of her fresh property on the doorstep of a park, she was overjoyed to be moving in. But the reality was a stark contrast to what she had imagined. The so-called park turned out to be just a patch of grassland with one slide and a small carousel. In the years since it was created, the area has been left unloved and strewn with litter.”

“Halima said: ‘If you look around at this place would you say it’s well maintained? It looks awful. It’s shocking they can treat their customers this way. Even being in a position to buy a home back then was an amazing feeling, but to be left with all this I would now say avoid buying new-build homes. Buying a new build home was the biggest mistake of my life. It has taken its toll on me and my mental health. Your home is supposed to be your house and your security so what they’re doing is dastardly. It’s a freehold property but we have to pay like a leasehold one. As a freeholder, you don’t want to be in our situation.’ She admits it wasn’t always this way, but feels abandoned by housebuilder Persimmons who handed the control of the site over to a management company once they completed the build. This is what Halima described as ‘the carcass of fleecehold’ – something, she says, is happening up and down the country.”