Are You Going To Pay It Or Not?

A report from the Wall Street Journal. “They came in droves via Zoom. Thousands found an inexpensive slice of paradise in Cape Coral. Househunters were so taken with this boating community on Florida’s west coast that many purchased homes sight unseen during the early years of the pandemic. The median home price soared nearly 75% to $419,000 in three years. Now, three years later, ‘For Sale’ signs line every other block. Open houses are deserted for hours. Foreclosures are ticking up. Home builders are listing half-built shells at discounts as they abandon projects to cut losses. Home prices for Cape Coral-Fort Myers have tumbled 11% in the two years through May, the most of any major metro area, according to an analysis for The Wall Street Journal. The area’s home prices have declined for 12 out of the past 13 months, and 52% of the homes have experienced price cuts, according to Parcl Labs. While that is more than nearly anywhere else in the U.S., neighboring communities such as Sarasota and Tampa are in a similar bind. ‘Cape Coral is the worst housing market in America right now,’ said José Echevarria, a Realtor. ‘I don’t think we’re at the bottom yet.'”

“Cape Coral also has the most homeowners underwater in the country, with nearly 8% owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth. Echevarria recently hosted an open house in Cape Coral. The home, bought three years ago by an investor looking to rent it on Airbnb, is fully furnished and has a pool. The asking price started at $675,000, but the seller has cut it to less than $500,000, about $100,000 below the purchase price. It has been on and off the market for a year and has received zero offers. ‘We’re cutting the price further tomorrow,’ Echevarria said last week.”

“At the height of the recent Florida migration frenzy, Lee County, where Cape Coral is located, had 3,500 homes available for sale. Now there are 12,000 listed. Julie and Tim Gaines live in one of the most sought-after neighborhoods in the city, in a house with all hardwood cabinets, high ceilings and a pool. They didn’t think they would have to wait too long to sell it. Fifteen price cuts and two years later, they still haven’t had a suitable offer. ‘I just hope that if we end up selling it’s not so far down below our asking price that it puts us in debt,’ Julie Gaines said. Investors are also running for the exits. Some rented out their homes but are now competing with cheaper multifamily developments. The city’s Airbnb rentals drew less interest as soon as Americans began traveling abroad again. These buyers ‘have stopped investing in Cape Coral,’ said Echevarria. His aunt is one of them. She recently sold a rental home at a $200,000 loss when the fundamentals stopped adding up. ‘It was either keep losing $49,000 a year or just off it and get the tax break on the loss,’ he said.”

The Herald Tribune in Florida. “A dip in median sale prices and slower activity continued in the Sarasota-Bradenton real estate market in May, according to the latest industry report. The Realtor Association of Sarasota and Manatee’s May findings showed a persistent decline in the median sale price after data included some of the steepest drops in years. The median sale price on single-family homes dropped 7.3% in Sarasota County — from $530,000 to $465,000 — and 8.9% in Manatee County — $525,000 to $478,195 — compared with May 2024. Both counties also saw dips in the median sale price for townhomes and condos, with a 12.8% decline from $368,000 to $321,020 in Sarasota and a 13.4% decline from $361,495 to $313,000 in Manatee.”

“The downward trending market in Sarasota-Manatee is accompanied by still-high inventory, though the pace of inventory growth has lessened. Sarasota County reported a 6.6-month supply of single-family homes, a 32% year-over-year increase, and a 9.2-month supply of condos and townhomes, a 46% spike from last year. Manatee County saw similar trends, with a 26.8% year-over-year increase yielding a 5.2-month supply of single-family homes and townhome and condo supply growing 25.4% to 7.9 months.”

From WPLN. “There are a lot of homes on the market around Nashville — but fewer people buying them. That’s according to a new report from Middle Tennessee State University. In Nashville, the housing inventory has exploded — it’s 37% higher than last year. Memphis and Knoxville, too, show an increase in listings. Closings just can’t keep up. Memphis has seen a decrease in closings from last year. Nashville and Knoxville have seen increases in the number of closings, but they don’t begin to close the gap of what’s on the market: in Nashville, there are nearly 13,000 homes on the market, but fewer than 3,000 have been sold this year. Looking ahead to future construction, the report shows single family homes are trending downward. Permits for single-family house have fallen in Tennessee and nationwide. However, permits for multifamily homes have snowballed by 62%, compared to last year.”

The San Antonio Current in Texas. “A home recently listed for sale has the unique distinction of being one of the few brick dwellings constructed in the King William Historic District, and it’s located mere steps from the River Walk. Further sweetening the pot, the property has been the subject of a series of steep price cuts. Despite the numerous improvements, the four-bedroom, two-and-a-half-bath house is now listed for $699,000, almost $200,000 less than its price point before the renovations. Its highest asking price, $975,000, was posted in 2023 immediately following some of the upgrades. That means a buyer now could pick up the historic home for nearly $300,000 less than its steepest price tag.”

From CNN. “Members of Generation Z, the cohort between the ages of 13 and 28, came of age during the economic upheaval of the Covid-19 pandemic. Still, many in Gen Z are forging ahead with homeownership. The generation now accounts for one in four loans issued to first-time home buyers, according to data from Intercontinental Exchange. Dominic Azpeitia, 26, was willing to move away from home to achieve homeownership. Although he hopes to return to Southern California one day to be near his family, he moved to Phoenix for its more affordable cost of living. Azpeitia said he and his wife had been casually looking for the past few years and began to notice the rapid rise in home prices. ‘I just decided last year, there is no point in waiting anymore,’ Azpeitia said. ‘In my opinion, housing prices aren’t going to go down.'”

“Azpeitia said that while he had saved the money for a down payment, he worked out a deal with his lender and the home seller that meant he didn’t have to pay any money towards the down payment or closing costs. He said he sees his Phoenix home, which was purchased for $520,000, as a long-term investment and that he hopes to rent it out to tenants in a few years. Rylee Arnold, 28, recently purchased a home in Salt Lake City and was pleasantly surprised when her seller offered to cover many of the closing costs. ‘I probably wouldn’t have been able to purchase the house if the seller hadn’t given me so many credits toward the house,’ Arnold said. ‘They kept fixing things for me too. Everything I asked for, they granted, so that was really nice.'”

From LAist in California. “After January’s fires destroyed 16,000 structures in Los Angeles County, hundreds of banks signed up for a state-run program designed to help homeowners who lost everything. Mortgage companies agreed to let borrowers delay their monthly payments for 90 days — without demands for full repayment at the end of the forbearance period. But some homeowners are now telling LAist their banks are not following the state’s rules. Some borrowers have seen their credit scores plummet. Mortgage companies have even told borrowers if they don’t catch up quickly, they could lose their homes. ‘We are seeing reports from homeowners from Altadena, from the Palisades, who are telling us, I asked them about that, and they said, ‘We don’t care about the disaster relief. Pay up,’ Aimee Williams, a housing rights attorney for the legal aid nonprofit Bet Tzedek told LAist.”

“Looking over the patch of dirt where her family’s home of 21 years once stood, Lisa Mason is still stunned by how odd the scene looks. Mason said her family is determined to rebuild, but her mortgage company is not making it easy. When she first heard about the 90-day forbearance program, she didn’t trust it. But her payments were delayed after all. In the chaos of getting back on her feet, Mason didn’t realize she had missed three months on her mortgage — until SPS told her to pay it all back by May 27. ‘They sent me a letter… saying, basically, if you don’t take action, it’s very possible you’re going to lose your home,’ Mason said. The letter she received said if she blew the May 27 deadline, ‘SPS may initiate foreclosure’ and ‘you may lose your home.’ ‘I said, ‘But do you realize this is against the moratorium? That we’ve just had a disaster?’ she recalled telling an SPS representative over the phone. ‘We can’t speak to that. Are you going to pay it or not?’ That was their response.’ ‘It’s just dumbfounding,’ she said. ‘How can you do this to people during a tragic time like this?'”

“Amanda Huezo, another Altadena homeowner whose property was damaged in the Eaton Fire, said Select Portfolio Servicing also demanded a balloon payment from her at the end of the 90-day forbearance period. ‘They made me feel hopeless,’ Huezo said. She said she thought the company would give her some time to slowly get caught up. ‘But it wasn’t that way,’ Huezo said. ‘They put pressure on me that I need to pay right away.'”

From Multifamily Dive. “Apartment sales volume fell 18% year over year to $8.2 billion in May, according to a report that data firm MSCI Real Assets shared with Multifamily Dive. Doug Root, co-founder and managing partner of Arlington, Virginia-based Blackfin Real Estate Investors, which recently bought the Sage Creek Apartments in Augusta, Georgia, for $17.3 million, is hopeful that sellers will be more motivated to bring properties to market this year. ‘It’s certainly not gangbusters, but there is more out there on the market,’ Root said. ‘I wouldn’t say it’s all actionable. I think there’s a lot of price discovery going on.’ In addition, some owners that may be struggling could be forced to make a move. ‘There is debt that’s maturing, and the longer the hold periods go, the more people’s hands are going to get forced,’ Root said. ‘There’s a little more of an expectation that this is how the market is now.'”

“Others are seeing similar trends. Douglas Wilson, CEO of San Diego-based Douglas Wilson Co., which provides business, workout and real estate services, said more lenders are seeking solutions for their problem properties. ‘In the last six to nine months, we’re seeing people move forward more and say, ‘Hey, we’ve got to get our hands on this problem,’ Wilson told Multifamily Dive. ‘We’ve got to get a resolution.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Economists choose their words judiciously. That is why National Bank of Canada’s June Economic Monitor report is notable. The authors say Canada’s largest real estate market, Ontario, is in ‘disarray.’ In British Columbia, the market is ‘struggling.’ Nationally, it ‘continues to slow.’ Canada’s housing problems are worsening. Federal Housing Minister Gregor Robertson, when asked by a reporter in May if home prices should drop, was clear: ‘No, I think we need to deliver more supply, make sure the market is stable. It’s a huge part of our economy.'”

“His words left many scratching their heads, including Mike Moffatt, an economist and the founding director of the Missing Middle Initiative, a project based at the University of Ottawa’s Institute of the Environment. ‘It’s simply not possible to restore broad-based affordability to the middle class without prices going down,’ he told The Canadian Press. So why the Housing Minister’s emphasis on price stability? Ottawa does not want to trade one crisis, housing affordability, for another, a middle-class retirement disaster. Over the last 20 years, home prices to income ratios have risen over 70 per cent. Two decades ago, a young middle-class family in B.C. or Ontario typically spent 40 to 45 per cent of disposable income on such homes. Today, the number is roughly 60 per cent, according to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation.”

“For young and older homeowners, equity from the future sale of their houses is the critical piece solving their retirement puzzle. Only 38 per cent of the current workforce has the benefit of an employer-registered pension plan, with most being dependent on their own resources. Yet, less than 40 per cent of Canadian tax filers contribute to a registered retirement savings plan or tax-free savings account. In B.C., where the average house price is about $1-million, and Ontario, where it is roughly $860,000, a dramatic decrease in prices of 40 to 50 per cent is needed to restore affordability, given the median after-tax household income in Canada is $70,500. But this would cut retirement income by thousands annually for homeowners depending on their home equity to finance their later years. Mr. Robertson’s emphasis on market stability suggests he has chosen to save many existing homeowners from a future in which retirement marks a quick descent into poverty.”

From The i Paper. “With mortgage rates still high and many would-be buyers struggling to get on the ladder, several major UK housebuilders are offering a range of perks to help shift new-build homes. Developers including Hopkins Homes, Taylor Wimpey, and Tilia Homes are currently marketing properties with incentives that range from cash gifts and paid legal fees to access to cheaper mortgage rates. Some suggest that the generosity of the freebies is linked to a recent collapse in sale numbers. According to Savills, between 2013 and 2015, 20,000 new homes changed hands each year in London – in a market where interest rates were really low, buy to let was a highly profitable endeavour, and international buyers were keen to invest. Last year, sale numbers plunged to only 7,500 – an 11 per cent decline compared with 2023 from 8,300.”

“Developers are often reluctant to drop headline prices on their homes, as this can affect the valuation of the wider development. Instead, they opt for incentives that add value without visibly lowering the price. Emma Fildes, property finder at Brick Weaver said: ‘Generally developers prefer to offer incentives via stamp duty, mortgage paid for six plus months, conveyancing fees or furniture packs so it doesn’t visibly dent their headline price as much. They will always have some give to give – how much depends on other interest and how hard you negotiate.’ Justin Moy, managing director at EHF Mortgages, agreed: ‘For anyone buying new build, drive a hard bargain and be prepared to walk away if the price isn’t right. With the way the property world is at the moment it is a buyers’ market.'”