skip to Main Content
thehousingbubble@gmail.com

The Absorption Rate Is Going Down, Down, Down

A report from Fox 35 Orlando. “Buyers say they were promised their dream homes. But after three years of delays, silence from the builder, and mounting frustration, they’re still waiting — and now the City of Palm Bay is preparing to demolish the unfinished project. Two investors reached out to FOX 35’s Esther Bower after seeing the initial reports and investigations on D32 properties in Palm Bay and Central Florida. Now, investors who paid for down payments on the properties are demanding answers and refunds since the construction has stalled for so long. Investors say their calls and emails go unanswered, and they fear their money is gone. ‘I officially requested a refund, and I just kept getting that email, talk to the builder and they will contact you. Up until this point, the builder has not contacted me at all,’ said Ian Ferguson, from Michigan, who paid a $58,000 deposit for one townhome. ‘I have email addresses of people, and no one responds. I’ve tried to call, and there’s no answer,’ said Emily Hall, from Utah, who paid a $116,000 deposit for two townhomes.”

From Mansion Global. “The uber-affluent enclave of Palm Beach is the only South Florida housing market where both prices and sales rose in the second quarter, while the luxury segment performed better than the broader market in most cities, according to data from Douglas Elliman. Results were mixed in the rest of the market in West Palm Beach, with prices up 4.1% for single-family homes and down 12.7% for condos, with sales falling across the board. In Miami Beach, where there’s more of a mix of both luxury and ultra-luxury homes, prices were up across both segments by 14.6%, but sales were down by 25%. While condos saw better sales as prices sagged by 25% compared to 2024, single-family homes saw fewer sales but prices fell by a lesser 15%.”

From My San Antonio. “Five years after a COVID-19 pandemic-era boom propelled Austin into the spotlight as a remote work destination and a coveted real estate market, a new report from Parcl Labs projects a continual decline in housing prices in the Texas capital, leading other real estate markets nationally. Its research mirrored that of Realtor.com’s breakdown of the Austin area, with a late June report noting Texas’ capital city set the record for the largest new listings count growth between May 2024 and May 2025. Alongside that, Austin’s median home prices dropped more than 6% in the same timespan, regarded as the largest annual price drop in the nation. On the sellers’ front, Parcl Labs evaluated how motivated Austin-area sellers were to slash home prices or hold firm and extend their time on the market. While Austin’s ranking still remains ‘stubborn,’ the report’s analysis found almost 45% of metro listings featured price cuts.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “Although new listings dropped in June, active listings statewide increased 23% over a year ago, pushing available homes to a 4.7 months’ supply, the highest level since 2013. But so far, that’s not leading to a true buyers’ market. Cooper Thayer, a broker associate with the Thayer Group in Castle Rock, said homes staying on the market longer are causing a ‘pile-up’ effect. ‘Even as negotiating leverage continues to lean in the favor of homebuyers, many sellers have yet to adjust their strategy to current market conditions,’ he said. ‘New listings, however, haven’t been the primary driver behind the spike in inventory. Rather, it’s the slower pace of those listings finding buyers that has caused the ‘pile-up’ effect in the market.'”

“That’s leading to conflict between sellers who are unwilling to lower prices and demanding buyers. ‘Many current sellers are homeowners who may want to move but don’t necessarily need to. With substantial equity, low interest rates locked in, and little financial pressure, these sellers are holding onto price expectations that may be unrealistic,’ said Kelly Moye of Compass. ‘Buyers, on the other hand, are seeing more inventory than they’ve had in over a decade—and they’re being ultra picky. With hopes for lower interest rates and new, more appealing listings popping up each day, many are choosing to wait, creating a slow, cautious environment on both sides of the transaction.’ The Routt County real estate market has shifted, but ideal properties still sell quickly. ‘If buying or selling a home makes sense for you personally in 2025, there are still absolutely plentiful opportunities available,’ said Marci Valicenti with The Group.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “As more and more Altadena residents choose to sell their fire-ravaged properties instead of rebuilding, owners are encountering a softening real estate market in which prices and the rate of sales are declining, according to data and interviews. Teresa Fuller, an agent in Altadena, described the post-fire timeline for sellers this way: ‘January, devastation. February, trickle. March, a few dozen went on market, and most if not all sold.’ But now, with a greater number of lots on the market and relatively few closing sales, the ‘absorption rate is going down, down, down,’ she said. In the first week of July, 29 new lots went on the market in Altadena, she said, and only four sold. Fuller said a couple came to her in March with a lot she estimated would get $905,000. Now they’re ready to list, but with a far lower estimate: $730,000. The homeowner cried when she heard the figure, saying, ‘This is all we have to move on,’ according to Fuller. Another lot she represents dropped from $1.295 million to $795,000.”

“Art Davis didn’t think he’d end up as a seller. The 82-year-old wanted to rebuild. At dinners with neighbors, they rallied around the idea of resurrecting their community. But hurdles began cropping up immediately. Just finding a rental for Davis and wife Mary was ‘insane,’ said Davis’ daughter Gina Gurewitz. The most optimistic timeline for rebuilding was two years. Then they got the news that their landlord would need the rental back at the end of the year. Davis told his daughter that he didn’t think he could handle another move before the ultimate move back to Altadena, his home of 15 years. ‘I saw it dawning on him, this dream of being back in this place fading away,’ Gurewitz said. The only option was to sell. As they enter a brutally competitive buyer’s market for lots, her parents will also be contending with an expensive market for housing elsewhere. ‘To have this happen at this stage in their lives,’ she said, ‘is just so disruptive that the goal now is to get them into a place where they can just be and feel safe.'”

The Windsor Star in Canada. “The price of the average single-family home in the Windsor area dipped by 4.9 per cent year over year, the third largest decline nationally, according to the Royal LePage. The average single-family dwelling sold for $524,700 in the second quarter of 2025 compared to $552,000 12 months earlier. The largest percentage declines were in West Vancouver (7.8) and Brampton (5.2). ‘We’re fighting uncertainty in the market with tariffs,’ said Royal LePage Windsor owner Frank Binder. ‘We’re feeling it more than elsewhere because we’re an auto town. Tariffs are the driving force in our community. The tool and die guys are working on projects a year or two ahead and those projects just aren’t being released by the automakers.'”

CTV News in Canada. “Kittens were still roaming the rental home when landlord Thamara DeVries repossessed it. She says they were part of a litter bred for profit in the bathroom. What started as a standard lease to three university students and their mother, turned into a months-long ordeal involving 12 tenants, nearly 14 animals and tens of thousands of dollars in damage. DeVries says the process of removing them was delayed at nearly every turn. Now, she is calling for urgent reform to Prince Edward Island’s rental tribunal. ‘I’m in shock. I’m devastated,’ DeVries said. ‘Seeing it being destroyed, not being able to do anything about it, it’s very gutting.’ She estimates $80,000 in damages. Outside, DeVries says the tenants dumped truckloads of horse manure across the lawn, including directly on top of the property’s well, its main water source. She says she’s unsure whether her insurance will cover the losses. But for her, the damage is done.”

From Central America. “Talk of real estate in El Salvador, especially in San Salvador and the coast, tends to go one of two ways: either it’s booming with no end in sight, or it’s heading straight for a correction. Rising prices, new high-rise developments, returning Salvadorans, and an influx of foreign investment have all pushed the market to historic highs. But with affordability slipping out of reach for locals and more properties sitting empty, some are starting to ask whether growth can really continue at this pace. San Salvador has seen some of the fastest real estate growth in the country, with mid-range homes in popular neighborhoods now regularly selling for over $200,000. New apartment towers continue to rise, many of them marketed off-plan and snapped up by Salvadorans living in the States. Some of these buildings, however, remain largely unoccupied, raising questions about long-term demand.”

“Wages haven’t kept up with prices, and most locals are priced out of new developments. There’s also speculation about saturation. With more units coming online and a rise in properties aimed at short-term rentals, some worry demand could flatten. On the coast, the real estate story is a little different. Areas like El Zonte and El Tunco have seen property values skyrocket, driven in part by the Bitcoin Law which attracted plenty of foreign investor interest, and a steady stream of digital nomads and surfers. In some cases, prices have increased by several hundred percent since 2021, turning once-sleepy beach communities into investment hotspots. Much of this growth has been speculative. Short-term rentals remain profitable in top locations, though there are signs of saturation in certain areas. Several buyers entered the market planning to list on Airbnb, but now find themselves competing with dozens of similar listings. There’s also the risk of oversupply in certain segments, especially high-rise apartments in San Salvador and Airbnb-focused beach properties. Some developments are already showing signs of low occupancy.”

This Post Has 72 Comments
    1. Spotted in Denver yesterday on 225, with Chihuahua plates on the trailer. Looks like they’re taking everything they own back to Mexico:

      https://ibb.co/HpfV1xg0

      This is the easy way. This is how you can exit the country without arrest or incarceration. Do you really want to leave the hard way? Because you’ll be leaving, regardless.

      1. Looks like they’re taking everything they own back to Mexico:
        Looks like a nice truck. Wonder if it’s paid for or if the lender will eat the loss because I don’t see the lender going to Mexico to repossess the truck.

  1. ‘I officially requested a refund, and I just kept getting that email, talk to the builder and they will contact you. Up until this point, the builder has not contacted me at all,’ said Ian Ferguson, from Michigan, who paid a $58,000 deposit for one townhome. ‘I have email addresses of people, and no one responds. I’ve tried to call, and there’s no answer,’ said Emily Hall, from Utah, who paid a $116,000 deposit for two townhomes’

    I included the video because it shows a better picture than the article. This looks like a clusterfook.

  2. ‘We’re fighting uncertainty in the market with tariffs,’ said Royal LePage Windsor owner Frank Binder. ‘We’re feeling it more than elsewhere because we’re an auto town. Tariffs are the driving force in our community. The tool and die guys are working on projects a year or two ahead and those projects just aren’t being released by the automakers’

    There is never a good time for a trade war Frank, elbows up!

  3. ‘Areas like El Zonte and El Tunco have seen property values skyrocket, driven in part by the Bitcoin Law which attracted plenty of foreign investor interest, and a steady stream of digital nomads and surfers. In some cases, prices have increased by several hundred percent since 2021’

    Interesting, that’s right after central banks flooded the globe with Jerry bucks.

  4. Watched an old Judge Judy re-run yesterday afternoon. One woman was suing another for $500 for the return of a deposit on a puppy she wanted to give her daughter for Christmas the coming year. She gave her the deposit in early spring but the pregnancy didn’t take, realizing there wouldn’t be enough time before Christmas the woman asked for her deposit back too witch the breeder agreed. But week after week running into months there was excuse after excuse why she couldn’t return the deposit, my bank screwed up, I lost my debit card etc.

    The woman easily won her case against the breeder but the breeder had had filed a countersuit on the breeders other job and website, She was a realtor. No sh#t she was a Realtor. Judge Judy read the post and said this is not defamation she told the truth, She doesn’t mention tour Realtor business she merely says you were unscrupulous and took money that you promised to return and wouldn’t on your breeding business.

    That was one pissed off lying Realtor by the end of the show.

    1. “witch” was one of many typos, sort of.

      The daughter got her puppy for Christmas and the woman got her $500 back, or the judgment for it anyway.

  5. “The uber-affluent enclave of Palm Beach is the only South Florida housing market where both prices and sales rose in the second quarter,
    If Zohran Mamdani actually becomes the Mayor of NY I would expect the price of Homes in Palm Beach to increase as well as the number of homes sold. People with money will be wanting to get out of NYC

  6. Washington Post — State Dept. layoffs led by team of outsiders willing to ‘break stuff’ (7/19/2025):

    “The Trump administration’s dramatic reorganization of the State Department, including this month’s firing of more than 1,300 workers, was engineered primarily by a handful of political appointees lacking extensive diplomatic experience and chosen for their “fidelity” to the president and willingness to “break stuff” on his behalf, according to people with knowledge of the process.
    Proponents of the initiative have declared its execution a historic success, overcoming years of resistance from a career workforce averse to major change. Critics say it was done arbitrarily, in furtherance of Trump’s polarizing brand of conservatism and will damage the United States’ standing in the world by shedding invaluable expertise across the department.”

    Invaluable expertise? What a joke.

    “In a statement, Rep. Gregory W. Meeks (New York), the House Foreign Affairs Committee’s top Democrat, accused the Trump administration of acting outside the law and called the plan’s architects “a small cabal of unqualified MAGA extremists.”

    “This wasn’t a serious review of national security needs,” Meeks said, “it was a political stunt. … The result? The most damaging brain drain in the State Department’s modern history.”

    https://archive.md/kzfdy

    Eight years of King Obama, and four years of Unelected Occupant, what exactly does the State Department do?

    Corruption, money laundering, arms trafficking, human trafficking, promote White genocide, and state enforced sexual perversion targeting children.

    1. Brain drain!
      Brain drain is when a majority of highly talented/ skilled/ knowledge workers with exceptional high potential leave (on their own) for greener pastures.
      If there was average or below average skill/ knowledge then nothing was lost. Just average bodies doing inessential work.
      I see a lot of these dead weight peeps in large publicly traded companies. Govt. cheese has permeated all strata in society. When there is lots of money floating around it is easy to hide these dead weights. Covid 19, was an excuse to increase the prices of everything including industrial sales.

  7. Related article.

    Washington Post — Children’s National Hospital to end gender-transition care (7/18/2025):

    “Children’s National Hospital announced Friday that because of “escalating legal and regulatory risks,” the D.C.-based medical system will no longer provide gender-transition care for patients, leaving families reeling.

    “We recognize the impact this has had on you and your family, and we are here to support you. Our care teams are available to assist you as you move forward,” reads a message the hospital sent to families that was obtained by The Washington Post.

    The move comes after the Justice Department on July 9 said it had subpoenaed nearly 20 doctors and clinics that provide gender-transition care.”

    https://archive.md/esIm7

    “Care”

    Real Journalists can only use this word, because Trust TheScience™. Democrat Party is party of child mutilation and r@pe, it’s their party platform, because globalists gonna globe.

      1. two math scholars are going further and asking: what if we made math gay?
        I would say I don’t believe they spent $1.75MM on this study but…… Obviously I would be wrong.

      2. Elsewhere they write: “Though often presumed to be domestic, women’s work, craft (e.g., knitting, crocheting, weaving) and the production of artifacts have shown to be inherently mathematical (e.g., Peppler et al., 2022; Thompson, 2020).”

        And here I thought that mathematics was about proofs and solving problems.

  8. State Dept laid off passport planning staff, after telling them they were exempt

    The State Department eliminated an office that oversaw key components of its passport operations, as part of widespread layoffs that occurred July 11.

    The Office of Planning and Program Support (PPS) — part of the Office of the Deputy Assistant Secretary for Passport Services within the Bureau of Consular Affairs — was “abolished,” according to a recently laid-off employee and the union that represents them. Nearly 25 employees working there received reduction-in-force notices last Friday.

    A passport center director, in an email shared with Federal News Network, told staff last week that the elimination of PPS “impacted not just positions, but valued colleagues and friends who have contributed greatly to our mission.”

    “Today was a sad, and in many ways, shocking day,” the passport center director wrote last Friday. “We did not expect this.”

    The National Federation of Federal Employees Local 1998, which represents Passport Services employees, said the State Department “repudiated its collective bargaining agreement” with the union by laying off its bargaining unit employees.

    “They’re a big deal, and now they’re gone,” NFFE Local 1998 President Boyd Hinton said in an interview. “What they were doing was important to keep the engine oiled. And now there’s nobody there to keep watching the engine.”

    Hinton said the State Department didn’t consult with NFFE 1998 in carrying out the RIFs. Two of the department’s other unions, the American Foreign Service Association and the American Federation of Government Employees Local 1534, raised similar concerns.

    “We’re all reps in exile, because the department doesn’t recognize us to do representational functions,” Hinton said.

    A PPS employee said staff “heard nothing” further about their positions at risk of being eliminated.

    “In fact, office managers and leaders constantly reassured us by noting the hiring exemption and that leaders know how important our office is,” the employee said.

    Last Friday morning, before RIF notices went out, PPS staff were once again told in a virtual meeting that they would be safe from layoffs coming later that day.

    Shortly after 11a a.m., however, they all received RIF notices. Employees were given until 4 p.m. to offboard from their roles, and had network access cut off by 5 p.m.

    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/workforce/2025/07/we-did-not-expect-this-state-dept-laid-off-passport-planning-staff-after-telling-them-they-were-exempt/

  9. KQED Layoffs Underscore Peril of Federal Defunding

    On the heels of major layoffs at KQED, Congress moved to claw back over a billion dollars in federal funding for public media, heightening financial uncertainty for some 1,500 radio and television stations across the country, including one of the system’s biggest.

    While the dominant narrative around the Corporation for Public Broadcasting cuts has centered on the existential danger for small, rural stations, KQED’s precarious situation suggests the consequences could ripple far wider.

    “This [layoffs] announcement makes it clear that no one in public media is safe,” said Rodney Benson, a media professor at New York University. “The threat to public media funding affects even the largest and strongest outlets.”

    KQED posted record-high radio ratings last month and has grown its digital and podcast audiences, but that hasn’t translated to financial stability. Earlier this week, the organization announced it would slash 15% of its staff, citing lower-than-expected revenue growth and economic volatility. The loss of federal dollars will only deepen those challenges.

    “This is the most difficult, distressing moment in the nearly 60-year history of public broadcasting, in the 71-year history of KQED,” the organization’s President and CEO, Michael Isip, said Friday morning on the program Forum.

    The rescissions package that the House sent to President Donald Trump’s desk late Thursday guts $1.1 billion in federal funding for public media that Congress previously approved, zeroing out that money for the next two years. CPB distributes the federal money to NPR, PBS and its member stations, which were expecting their next payments in the fall. Those will no longer come.

    “The immediate response to this particular round of cuts will be that we are likely to see many stations … go dark,” NPR CEO Katherine Maher said Friday on Morning Edition. “These are stations that serve rural communities. They are stations that receive, in the case of Alaska, up to 70% of their budget in federal funds. And we’re talking small budgets. We’re talking $500,000, $600,000.”

    Still, station leaders have not ruled out the possibility of further cuts in a future without federal funding.

    While conservative legislators have targeted public media funding for decades, the scale of the current campaign is unprecedented, said Mike Janssen, an editor at the industry publication Current. “The number of attacks and the different directions they’re coming from all at once is what’s different,” he said.

    “It’s a perfect storm,” said Janssen, who’s covered public media for more than two decades. “Traditional funding models are kind of falling apart, and there’s this big need to expand on digital platforms for new audiences, and those two things just aren’t a good combination.”

    Nik Usher, associate professor of communication studies at the University of San Diego, said medium-sized outlets like KQED are in a particularly difficult situation. They’re too small to compete with major national outlets, but big enough to pour resources into making their own programs, rather than relying primarily on content made by NPR or other national producers.

    This “Goldilocks problem,” Usher said, means they’re “not too big and not too small. Just the right size to be screwed by the way that the attention economy works right now.”

    “Cuts make it harder to do good work, and then that good work is less compelling and fewer people want to purchase it to rebroadcast,” Usher said. “It’s kind of got a potential to spiral.”

    While Benson cautioned that public media shouldn’t abandon hope for federal funding, for now, he said the path forward is paved with private dollars.

    “The future is public media that is more fully in the nonprofit model,” he said in an email. “If anyone can make it work, stations like KQED can, but I would imagine that at least in the near term, budgets will be tight and these will not be the last layoffs.”

    https://www.kqed.org/news/12048660/no-one-in-public-media-is-safe-kqed-layoffs-underscore-peril-of-federal-defunding

    1. what people dont understand. is NPR. hogged up all the high powered FM radio frequencies decades ago, so due to the FCC channels spacing and overlap coverage it prevented hundreds of colleges community groups to use the public airwaves for non commercial use. Even the famous CT school of broadcasting could not get a FM frequency in Bridgeport CT

      1. Yep, and the only good stuff on NPR is the college radio type music programs late at night. Everything else is mindless propaganda. Good riddance to such a scummy organization. Hopefully this will result in an explosion of music getting more attention. Need to break the stranglehold of clear channel and Salem too.

      2. I have the TuneIn Pro app on my phone, and I can stream digital broadcasts, podcasts, sports, etc., from around the U.S. and world. FM radio had it’s heyday, but it’s over.

  10. Tariffs are likely here to stay. What now, for Canada?

    When Donald Trump took office earlier this year, trading partners were unsure how serious he was about pursuing the tariffs he campaigned on, and many wondered whether the levies would be primarily used as a negotiation tactic.

    But six months later, it’s increasingly clear that the U.S. President is committed to his protectionist trade policies, even if the tariff rates and targets constantly change.

    After promising to fight U.S. tariffs until they’re lifted, Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged to reporters this week that there’s little evidence a trade deal without tariffs is possible.

    The prospect of a prolonged trade war is particularly devastating for businesses in the aluminum, steel and automotive sectors, which have been targeted by steep tariffs under national security grounds and have limited options to diversify away from the U.S., leaving their fate largely at the mercy of Mr. Trump.

    “I think it’s been very clear that Trump is a tariff man,” said Wolfgang Alschner, the Hyman Soloway chair in business and trade law at the University of Ottawa. “So, it would have been an unrealistic proposition that Canada can achieve a feat that no other country has thus far achieved, and that would be to convince the U.S. of not imposing any tariffs.”

    Mr. Trump has also shown no appetite for re-establishing free trade with any trading partners, striking only a few deals so far with countries such as Britain and Vietnam that still include sizable and broad-based U.S. tariffs.

    “He truly loves tariffs for a wide variety of reasons, but maybe the revenues above all else,” said Bank of Montreal chief economist Douglas Porter.

    Prof. Alschner said it’s unlikely Canada will be able to convince the U.S. to abandon sectoral tariffs completely, given they reflect the White House’s desire to build up the country’s domestic manufacturing capacity.

    “The real impetus there is it’s not that Canadian steel, Canadian lumber, Canadian copper, is creating a national security concern. It is that the United States wants to have the industrial capabilities to meet its own potential defence needs, if the need arises,” he said.

    The Canadian Steel Producers Association warned this week that 50-per-cent tariffs have effectively shut it out of the U.S. market. Federal and provincial leaders have emphasized the need to diversify trade away from the United States. But for the sectors hardest hit in Canada right now, diversifying is challenging.

    Brian Kingston, the CEO of the Canadian Vehicle Manufacturers’ Association, said it’s is not an option for the automotive sector because of how highly integrated it is within North America.

    But he acknowledged that the industry has little control over its fate, and that Mr. Trump ultimately is the one who decides what tariffs to impose.

    To support the industry during this difficult time, Mr. Kingston is calling on the federal government to repeal the EV mandate that requires all new cars sold in 2035 to be zero-emission vehicles, with an interim target of 20 per cent by next year.

    “Let’s control the things that we have direct influence over and make Canada more competitive for automotive manufacturing,” he said.

    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-tariffs-are-likely-here-to-stay-what-now-for-canada/

  11. ‘Elbows up’ isn’t the right approach to Trump, says Saskatchewan premier

    As opposition parties argue Prime Minister Mark Carney is failing to live up to his pledge to be “elbows up” against Donald Trump, Saskatchewan Premier Scott Moe says he never thought that mentality was the right approach to dealing with the U.S. president’s tariffs.

    “They’re still going to be our largest trading partner and probably still going to be our largest ally as we increase our military investment to keep our continent safe alongside the U.S.,” Moe said in an interview with CBC’s The House that aired Saturday morning.

    “I’ve never thought ‘elbows up’ was the proper approach with respect to negotiating.”

    Carney’s opponents have attacked him over the last few days after the prime minister said on Tuesday there’s “not a lot of evidence right now” the U.S. is willing to cut a trade deal without some tariffs included.

    Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre said in a social media post on Tuesday that Carney’s remarks are “another unilateral concession from a man who said he would never back down to the U.S. president.”

    On Wednesday, Bloc Québécois Leader Yves-François Blanchet accused Carney of backpedalling. He told reporters on Parliament Hill the prime minister has “made compromises on so many things so far without achieving anything.”

    Carney has resisted placing additional counter tariffs on the U.S. after Trump raised steel and aluminum tariffs to 50 per cent. The prime minister also scrapped Canada’s digital services tax to bring Trump back to the negotiating table in late June.

    It’s not clear whether those moves have helped Canada’s negotiations, since talks are private. However, even after those decisions, Trump is still threatening 35 per cent tariffs on Canadian goods across the board.

    https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/saskatchewan-premier-elbows-up-1.7588879

  12. Do you fear the stock market’s crazy run of irrationally exuberant overvaluation may soon run off a cliff?

    1. Stocks just hit a ‘line of death’ last reached at the peak of the dot-com bubble, veteran investor Bill Smead warns

      By William Edwards
      Jul 19, 2025, 2:30 AM PT

      – Bill Smead warns the stock-market rally is vulnerable to a reversal.

      – Smead shared a chart showing the S&P 500 hitting a resistance trend line.

      – Smead also cites Warren Buffett’s cautious cash position as a sign of potential market trouble.

      Bill Smead doesn’t know how long the current stock-market rally can continue, but the veteran investor does think it’s in a particularly vulnerable spot.

      In his Q2 letter to investors on July 15, Smead — whose Smead Value Fund (SMVLX) has beaten 96% of peers over the last 15 years, Morningstar data shows — shared a chart displaying inflation-adjusted S&P 500 returns since the 1960s.

      An upward trend line shows resistance at two major market peaks, in 1966 and in 2000, is also shown. In both of those instances when S&P 500 inflation-adjusted returns hit the trend line, a significant correction followed.

      In recent weeks, the market has touched the line for the third time since 1960 as the S&P 500 has surged to all-time highs around 6,300.

      There’s no rule that says the market’s rally can’t break higher, especially if economic fundamentals, like inflation, consumer spending, and the unemployment rate, remain solid. But to be sure, it’s a foreboding reminder about how frothy the current environment is, and Smead thinks the market is set up for disaster where the S&P 500 delivers exceptionally poor returns over the decade ahead.

      “That doesn’t tell you when, but it does tell you a lot about the magnitude and the duration of what’s going to happen,” Smead told Business Insider.

      “You can’t hold your breath until it breaks,” he continued. “It’s not a question of whether, it’s a question of when.”

      The market’s impressive returns recently have been driven by growth stocks, particularly the Magnificent Seven mega-cap tech companies. So it’s not necessarily surprising that Smead, a value investor, is bearish on growth stocks’ prospects.

      A shift toward value outperformance would benefit Smead’s fund, which is down 10.6% over the last 12 months. The Smead Value Fund’s holdings are most heavily concentrated in the energy, consumer cyclical, and financials sectors.

      Still, Smead’s impressive long-term track record shows he could be onto something. Other popular measures of investor euphoria also show the market is at historically rich levels. For example, the Shiller cyclically-adjusted price-to-earnings ratio is near all-time highs.

      Smead also cited Warren Buffett’s seemingly cautious approach in recent years, holding a record cash position, as a warning sign that things could go awry in the market. Buffett warned of froth in the market leading up to the dot-com bubble, leading him to take a more conservative stance in his portfolio. As a result, his performance suffered in the year leading up to the bubble’s peak, but Buffett later smashed the S&P 500’s returns when the market crashed over the course of a few years.

      “Everybody wants to know why Warren Buffett holds so much cash,” Smead said. “It’s because he knows that at some point here this thing is going to get slaughtered.”

      https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-sp500-outlook-dot-com-bubble-smead-2025-7

    2. Moneywise
      Warren Buffett’s company is sitting on $347 billion in cash — how to follow his lead as an everyday investor
      Moneywise
      July 1, 2025 6 min read
      Warren Buffett speaks onstage during Fortune’s Most Powerful Women Summit in Washington, D.C., Oct. 13, 2015.
      Paul Morigi / Getty Images for Fortune / Time Inc.

      Moneywise and Yahoo Finance LLC may earn commission or revenue through links in the content below.

      Warren Buffett is well known for his investing talent. Aside from his nose for reliable companies, the now-billionaire got rich partly by buying undervalued stocks and holding them for the long term.

      It may come as a surprise then to learn that Berkshire Hathaway — the multinational conglomerate Buffett runs — held a record $334 billion in cash at the end of 2024 after selling $134 billion in stocks that year. As of March 31, that cash in hand had climbed to $347 billion.

      https://finance.yahoo.com/news/warren-buffetts-company-sitting-347-152100346.html

  13. Alabama farmers reap benefits from Trump policy, tariffs on Mexican tomatoes

    Some Alabama farmers are celebrating President Donald Trump’s decision to end the U.S.-Mexico Tomato Suspension Agreement and slap a 17% tariff on most fresh Mexican tomatoes.

    “The termination of this deal is long overdue and gives our family farms a real chance to thrive again,” said Alabama Fruit & Vegetable Growers Association (AFVGA) executive director Blake Thaxton. “Our growers are committed to producing Sweet Grown Alabama tomatoes for our communities — and now they can do so on an even playing field.”

    Famed tomato-growing farm on Chandler Mountain in St. Clair County, Smith Tomato, has already seen the benefits of the changes.

    Many buyers have already contacted us and other nearby farms for interest in future business,” said Chad Smith, farm owner and AFVGA board member. “This tariff is a lifesaver to many farmers who have much higher costs and restrictions than our neighboring countries. We all have implemented the best agricultural practices and safest methods of growing tomatoes and have invested to only be undercut and pushed out of business by foreign tomatoes.”

    Smith said he hopes the changes will also inspire young people to start their own farms, allowing the Unites States to continue producing and sustaining its own food.

    “We have been losing way too many American farms, while foreign produce is being poured in,” he said. “Many believe this will raise prices on the consumer, but that’s not the case. Alabama farmers generally receive less than 30% of the retail cost per pound on tomatoes. This simply means produce companies and distributors will choose local tomatoes instead of tomatoes from thousands of miles away. That saves on transportation. This also ensures our family can produce healthy, delicious tomatoes for our future generations and yours.”

    Young farmer Destiny Allman Gladden said she hopes the Trump administration’s decisions will mean she can continue the family business in Blount County.

    “Allman Farms & Orchards is owned by my dad, Daniel,” Gladden said. “It’s my hope that my brother, Chance, and I will get to continue it for years to come. Ending the Tomato Suspension Agreement feels like the first win we’ve had in years that might actually benefit us.”

    https://1819news.com/news/item/alabama-farmers-reap-benefits-from-trump-policy-tariff-on-mexican-tomatoes

  14. Hill Mom Shackled, Deported To Mexico

    Nancy Martinez boarded an airplane with dozens of other migrants Thursday morning. She was allegedly shackled by her hands, feet, and waist, and flown down to Brownsville, Texas.

    A month after masked ICE agents seized her in front of her home in the Hill — spiriting her away to detention facilities in Rhode Island, Maine, and New Hampshire — she thought she was finally about to get her chance to appear before a judge in immigration court.

    Instead, soon after landing, she and roughly 40 others were put on a bus, driven to the border, and taken to the port of entry by the northern Mexican city of Matamoros.

    “When I got to the border, they said I could go now and now I was free,” Martinez recalled federal immigration agents telling her.

    But her husband, her 13-year-old daughter, and her 8‑year-old son remained 2,000 miles away in New Haven.

    “To be with my children,” she said on Friday. ​“That’s my greatest desire.”

    Martinez, 37, described the emotional, disorienting, and at-times harrowing experience of her deportation during a phone interview with the Independent Friday evening.

    Speaking in Spanish, as interpreted by New Haven legal aid lawyer Ben Haldeman, Martinez was on a bus to Monterrey, preparing for a flight to Mexico City.

    Martinez’s removal from the United States to Mexico on Thursday took place a little more than a month after masked Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents arrested her in front of her home on Frank Street on June 9.

    A factory worker and Mexican immigrant who had been in the United States for 15 years, Martinez was getting ready to take her 13-year-old daughter and 8‑year-old son to school that day when she was boxed in and taken away by the ICE agents. That same morning, she also had a scheduled court hearing for an ongoing criminal case for two misdemeanor charges stemming from a babysitting-related fight she allegedly got into with her sister-in-law. Martinez has not yet entered pleas to those two charges; her next state court date is scheduled for September.

    The next few weeks saw Haldeman and Martinez try and try to figure out why Martinez had been detained. The federal government contended that she had an order of removal dating back to when she first crossed the border from her home country of Mexico to the United States in 2010. Haldeman and Martinez pushed to figure out if that order was valid.

    Haldeman wound up filing a habeas petition in Rhode Island, ​“essentially saying you can’t hold her without telling us the basis on which you’re holding her.”

    The government ultimately produced ​“something that looks like an older removal order,” and then provided documentation stating that that removal order had been reinstated as of the day of her detention on June 9.

    ICE could have put her in ​“regular removal proceedings” to let her fight her case, Haldeman argued, even after they reinstated the removal order from 2010. They could have given her a chance to make an argument in immigration court as to why she should be allowed to stay.

    “Here is a woman with real equities” — including two kids, one of whom has special needs, Haldeman said. She’s married, works, has virtually no criminal history, beyond the March arrest, on misdemeanor charges she had not pleaded guilty to or been convicted of. She had letters upon letters upon letters of support from friends and family speaking up on her behalf.

    “This is someone who really is not a problem,” Haldeman said. ​“She is a blessing to her community.”

    He believes she would have had a good case for ​“cancellation of removal” — if only ICE had let her go to court. ​“Just put her in regular proceedings. Let her fight her case,” he recalled pleading with the federal government. ​“They didn’t respond to that request.”

    And Martinez never got to appear before an immigration court judge.

    Haldeman said that Martinez’s chances at staying in the U.S. became all the stronger when he found out that her husband was potentially eligible for a U visa, which is reserved for victims of certain crimes. A U visa could have extended protections for Martinez that would have allowed her to stay with her family. ​“It does overcome a prior removal order,” Haldeman said. ​“If you get a U visa granted, your order is automatically rescinded.”

    But after Haldeman and Martinez withdrew their habeas petition, ICE moved Martinez from Wyatt up to Maine. She spent four or five days there, he said. Then, on Wednesday, ​“I had a missed call from Maine in the morning.” Martinez’s deportation had begun.

    Haldeman and Martinez said she was transferred to the Strafford detention facility in New Hampshire on Wednesday. There, he said, she was put in a room that was ​“freezing cold.”

    “It was really cold in part because it was all concrete,” Martinez said. ​“They gave me a torn blanket, and so I asked for another one. They refused, until a person came on much later” and helped. ​“They told me I didn’t have a right to make any phone calls,” she said.

    She spent the night in that cell in New Hampshire, Haldeman said. Then, on Thursday morning, ICE boarded her on to a plane bound for Texas. (Haldeman said he wasn’t sure if the flight left from Dover or Boston, but the last facility Martinez was held in was Strafford in New Hampshire.)

    “I was shackled the whole time,” Martinez said about the flight. ​“My feet. My hands. My waist.”

    She said she tried to remain calm. She took comfort in thinking that they were bringing her to a detention center in Texas. She said she was told that, in Texas, she’d see a judge and be able to continue the process of fighting her removal order.

    When they landed in Texas, Martinez said, she and roughly 40 others were promptly put on a bus and driven to the border near Matamoros. All they left her with was her clothes and ​“part of the money she had in her commissary,” Haldeman said.

    She is now en route to the southern part of Mexico, the area where her parents live.

    “There’s a lot of things that you don’t see on the television. Everyone there is suffering in their own way,” Martinez said when asked to reflect on her past month of immigration detention and, now, removal. ​“They humiliate us. They treat us like animals. They give you things with gloves like you have some sort of sickness.”

    Haldeman concluded that ICE had ​“plenty of opportunities to do the right thing. They could have let her fight her case in regular immigration court proceedings. They could have granted her request for a stay.”

    But they didn’t. Instead, they removed her to Mexico. ​“That’s a complete failure of compassion for someone who has real long-standing important ties to this country.”

    https://www.newhavenindependent.org/article/nancy_martinez

    1. ICE could have put her in ​“regular removal proceedings” to let her fight her case,

      Fight her case? She’s here illegally. What is there to fight?

    2. But her husband, her 13-year-old daughter, and her 8‑year-old son remained 2,000 miles away in New Haven.

      “To be with my children,” she said on Friday. ​“That’s my greatest desire.”

      well guess what? They can go too. You can all be “reunited” in Mexico. Won’t that be great for everyone.

    3. “two kids, one of whom has special needs”

      Paid for by U.S. taxpayers. It never ends with these sob stories.

    4. Speaking in Spanish, as interpreted by New Haven legal aid lawyer Ben Haldeman, Martinez was on a bus to Monterrey, preparing for a flight to Mexico City.”

      After 15 years living in the US, she was really making an effort to integrate, wasn’t she.

      1. I noticed that too. What value she must have added to her local community. and pumping out a “special needs” kid. Massive government funds drain.

  15. Immigration agents arrest man after hearing at Washington County Circuit Court

    Federal immigration agents this month detained a migrant leaving Washington County Circuit Court, marking the first confirmed arrest near a local Oregon courthouse by the Trump administration.

    Samantha Ratcliffe, chief immigration attorney at the Metropolitan Public Defender, confirmed the July 7 immigration arrest but declined to provide the name of the individual or additional details.

    The newsroom was able to identify him as a 44-year-old man from Portland. It’s unclear why immigration officials arrested him, but the man’s partner told The Oregonian/OregonLive that she believes he was ordered deported from the United States in 2011. He’s originally from Honduras.

    The arrest is just the latest in Oregon under a Trump administration that has upended the status quo through aggressive immigration-enforcement tactics. Courthouse arrests had generally been off-limits under previous presidents but, as was the case during Trump’s first administration, are again becoming a norm.

    Already at least a half dozen asylum seekers have been detained at or near federal immigration court in downtown Portland since early June. The Washington County incident marks the first confirmed arrest near a local courthouse in Oregon, although no state agency is tracking them and at least one arrest outside the same courthouse had been suspected, but not verified, in late January.

    The man arrested in Washington County last week appeared before Judge Ricardo Menchaca for a felony case accusing him of driving under the influence of intoxicants, criminal driving while having a suspended or revoked license, and a misdemeanor for failure to perform duties of a driver tied to property damage, according to court records. He has prior DUII convictions.

    On the day of his immigration arrest, the man’s girlfriend said they spotted a man wearing green outside the courtroom who was watching them. The couple decided to take the stairs in a “completely different” direction, she said.

    As soon as the couple got in her car outside the building, she said, ICE agents boxed them in with four SUVs. One ICE agent tried to get her car keys out of the ignition by reaching through her car window, she said. Another ICE agent opened the passenger door and pulled her partner out, she said.

    The woman said her partner was doing the right thing by showing up to court as required. “I don’t understand how they can just do that,” she said. “It’s wrong”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/immigration-agents-arrest-man-after-hearing-at-washington-county-circuit-court/ar-AA1IS40U

    1. The woman said her partner was doing the right thing by showing up to court as required. “I don’t understand how they can just do that,” she said. “It’s wrong”

      These illegals sure are entitled and take their defacto amnesty for granted.. I suppose no one has told them “no” in decades and they got used to it. Get used to hearing “no” a lot now.

    2. he man arrested in Washington County last week appeared before Judge Ricardo Menchaca for a felony case accusing him of driving under the influence of intoxicants, criminal driving while having a suspended or revoked license, and a misdemeanor for failure to perform duties of a driver tied to property damage, according to court records. He has prior DUII convictions.

      Oh he’s a real winner. Plus an illegal. notice this article doesn’t even say he pays taxes and goes to work, so they aren’t even pretending anymore.
      Should have taken his girlfriend/wife too

  16. Raided Alabama BBQ restaurant linked to vast scheme to smuggle undocumented workers called ‘Pedro’s people,’ feds allege

    A day after multiple federal and local agencies raided restaurants across Alabama, a newly unsealed federal indictment linked one of the target venues to an alleged scheme to hire, transport and house undocumented immigrant workers in another state.

    Tuesday’s actions took place at 14 locations in six Alabama counties and involved federal search warrants related to drug trafficking, human smuggling, document fraud and financial crimes.

    Cesar Campos-Reyes, a 52-year-old Lee County resident described as the owner of five restaurants, surrendered late Tuesday on charges of bank fraud, wire fraud and money laundering. He pleaded not guilty on Friday.

    Authorities said more than 40 people believed to be undocumented workers were taken into custody.

    In an email to supporters on Tuesday, the non-profit Hispanic and Immigrant Center of Alabama (HICA) did not mention the operations directly but did address the recent immigrant crackdown by the Trump Administration.

    CEO Carlos E. Alemán wrote, “Right now, everything feels at risk.”

    A Tuesday raid on Colt Grill BBQ & Spirits in Foley had some elements that made it stand out from the day’s other actions.

    For one thing, Colt is a barbecue chain, not a Mexican restaurant.

    For another, its four sister restaurants in Arizona also were raided, in a case that officials described as “a complex criminal investigation involving alleged criminal activity including money laundering and labor exploitation.”

    A statement from Homeland Security Investigations said that investigation had been under way for three years.

    Colt Grill was founded in Arizona by Brenda Marie Clouston and her husband, Robert Clouston. An indictment unsealed Tuesday in the United States District Court for the District of Arizona does not address the money laundering allegations.

    But it alleges that the Cloustons and two employees – Luis Pedro Rogel-Jaimes and Iris Romero-Molina – conspired to staff their Arizona restaurants with undocumented immigrant workers.

    The indictment produced by a grand jury was filed under seal in late May.

    The Cloustons and their fellow defendants are charged with a pattern and practice of knowingly employing unauthorized aliens; conspiracy to bring illegal aliens into the United States unlawfully; conspiracy to transport illegal aliens; conspiracy to harbor illegal aliens; and conspiracy to encourage and induce an alien to unlawfully enter the United States.

    Prosecutors allege that Robert Clouston, Rogel-Jaimes and Romero-Molina agreed on a scheme to bring in undocumented workers via a shell company so that Colt Grill could dodge requirements to verify that they were able to work legally.

    The indictment says Robert Clouston leased several residences to house those workers and acquired vehicles to transport them to work.

    The Cloustons allegedly paid their two partners and/or their shell company, with a portion of that money going to the employees.

    The indictment makes several specific allegations that depict Robert Clouston as being actively and deeply involved in the illegal activity:

    He allegedly told a Colt Grill manager not to worry about calculating pay, taxes and worker’s compensation for some new hires because they were “Pedro’s people,” an apparent reference to Rogel-Jaimes.

    He allegedly was seen handing cash to Rogel-Jaimes “while shaking hands and discussing bringing more Mexican national workers up from Mexico.”

    He allegedly “instructed two managers with the Sedona location to fire United States citizen employees in the Sedona Colt Grill to create employment openings for undocumented Mexican nationals for the purpose of having less expensive labor costs.”

    In addition to the felony charges, the grand jury indictment also indicates that authorities plan to pursue forfeiture of assets upon conviction.

    In Tuesday’s raids across Alabama, federal authorities said not all of the 14 locations raided were restaurants. Eight were, with others being residences or properties affiliated with the case.

    Campos-Reyes is due in court, possibly on Thursday.

    HICA CEO Alemán’s remarks issued Tuesday did not address specifics of Tuesday’s raids but raised concerns about such activities in general.

    “Just in the past few weeks, community members have been detained during scheduled ICE check-ins — people who have followed every legal instruction, only to be unexpectedly taken into custody,” he said.

    “Most recently, in Gulf Shores, more than 30 individuals were detained during a raid at a high school construction site. These events are not isolated. They reflect a growing pattern of intimidation and enforcement that makes it harder for families to feel safe, even when they are doing everything right. Due process is being quietly dismantled.”

    Alemán urged supporters to “speak out.”

    “We won’t ignore that both political parties have failed to address the broken immigration system. We won’t pretend this is just about the border. This is about our neighbors, co-workers, and children,” he wrote.

    https://www.al.com/news/2025/07/raided-alabama-bbq-restaurant-linked-to-vast-scheme-to-smuggle-undocumented-workers-called-pedros-people-feds-allege.html

    1. We won’t ignore that both political parties have failed to address the broken immigration system.

      Well, we know what this means: they want open borders and amnesty.

      Not going to happen.

    2. On a news bit from one of the raided locations in AZ they found a former white American who used to work there a few years ago to interview. He reported that it was a great place to work and he never noticed anything that seemed off. Apparently he didn’t get the memo that he was replaced by illegal invaders. He looked like a libtard.

  17. Trump’s immigration crackdown causing labor shortages to California’s construction industry

    Los Angeles — One construction site in Los Angeles has just about everything needed to build a traditional family home. Everything, that is, except enough workers.

    “We have probably three people on site, four people on site, and normally, we’d have about double, about eight to 10 people,” general contractor Jason Pietruszka told CBS News. “They’re hiding. People aren’t will to coming to work.”

    Pietruszka said he only hires builders here in the country legally, but that he also relies on companies that employ highly skilled, undocumented labor. Many of those workers are now no-shows because they are fearful of the ramped-up Immigration and Customs Enforcement raids.

    “If a company has five trucks going out and doing work every single day, and there’s two guys per truck, and half their crew doesn’t want to come, that’s literally three jobs, or two jobs, that can’t be performed,” Pietruszka explained.

    About 41% of construction workers in California are foreign-born, according to a 2023 analysis from the National Association of Home Builders, a trade group for the housing construction industry.

    “When you find the people who are willing to do the job, they want probably double the hourly rate,” Pietruszka said. “…That means the consumer is paying more.”

    https://www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-immigration-crackdown-labor-shortages-california-construction-industry-builder-says/

    You belong in jail Jason.

    1. Pietruszka said he only hires builders here in the country legally, but that he also relies on companies that employ highly skilled, undocumented labor.

      So in other words, he hires illegals via proxies.

      1. “highly skilled”

        Stapling Romex to studs. My first foreman when I entered the trade called that “kindergarten sh*t.”

    2. When you find the people who are willing to do the job, they want probably double the hourly rate

      Illegals, who are subsidized by taxpayers, sure do help fatten builder’s bottom lines, don’t they? Those $100K+ F-350’s the bosses drive around in don’t pay for themselves.

      1. That’s right Jason, doesn’t have to pay health care, taxpayers do it for them and their children. He does have a point: without illegals, shanties in California might be expensive!

        Still, I have to wonder how we built millions of shanties for hundreds of years without illegals? And if he hires only legals, he knows exactly how much they charge. I’d bet the pay is not that much different. When I would work at a brewery in Sedona canning or bottling, the boss told me they tried to hire illegals once and they all wanted $15/hour. We were making $8/hour cash at the end of the day. It was spotty, hard work so they had trouble finding people, but they always found enough.

    3. Well this guy just admitted to a felony on record. Go get him ICE

      also weird how legals willing to do the job want double the money. Huh, how odd.

  18. ICE Removes Injured Woman From Hospital

    A 36-year-old woman who has been hospitalized since being injured during an immigration detention action in Sherman Oaks is believed to have been taken out of the medical center Friday by agents who had been stationed at the facility since she was admitted, and friends said they do not know where she was taken.

    The continued presence of Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents in green fatigues and masks at Dignity Health Glendale Memorial Hospital had drawn outrage from community activists, some elected officials and representatives of nursing organizations who said Milagro Solis Portillo deserved “to heal in safety and dignity, free from intimidation and fear.”

    In a Friday morning email, family contact Maggie Sisco said Portillo was removed between 5:45 and 6:30 a.m. “despite the treating physician and medical team telling them she is not medically stable and ready for discharge. They refused to say where they were taking her.”

    Portillo had been hospitalized since being injured July 3 during an immigration enforcement operation outside a Sherman Oaks apartment complex.

    Activists had said the presence of ICE agents was “creating a hostile and frightening environment for her, other patients, and hospital staff. Their presence is invasive and inappropriate in a medical setting.”

    A statement issued on Portillo’s behalf by the Immigrant Defenders Law Center said she was arrested at her home by two officers who refused to identify themselves or produce a signed judicial warrant for her arrest.

    Center officials claimed the officers twisted her arms and threw her to the ground, leading to injuries so severe she began vomiting and choking in the car while she was handcuffed and was left in her own vomit for about eight hours between the of her initial detention and when she was admitted to the hospital.

    In a statement to the Los Angeles Times, U.S. Department of Homeland Security officials said Portillo “is an illegal alien from El Salvador who has been removed from the United States twice and has been arrested for crimes of false identification, theft, and burglary.”

    But Portillo, in her statement through the law center, said she has “never had a single criminal conviction.”

    https://mynewsla.com/crime/2025/07/18/activists-ice-agents-remove-woman-from-hospital-2/

    You’ll get used to the outhouse and dirt floors Milagro.

    1. My Spidey sense is tingling. I suspect that some important details were left out: what kinds of injuries did she incur that required hospitalization? And why two weeks in the hospital? Was the hospital being used as a sanctuary to protect her from deportation and there is nothing wrong with her? Was there an insider tip that her hospitalization was fake?

      Nothing surprises me anymore.

    2. I totally agree, she shouldn’t have been taken to the hospital at all. I’m sure these detention centers can have a little nursing station or something. Probably cost a lot less than a hospital, and certainly no need for the agent to stand there for days on end. Jails have this kind of thing I’m sure they can be easily added to the detention centers.

      I tried to tell you, deportation IS the moderate choice. It only gets worse from here.

  19. Immigrants avoiding Hispanic businesses in Orlando as ICE searches restaurants, advocates say

    ORLANDO, Fla. – The Mexican consulate and a former Orlando area politician on Friday accused Immigration and Customs Enforcement agents of targeting Hispanic restaurants for people to detain, frightening immigrants, and hurting area businesses.

    Consul Juan Sabines and former State Sen. Linda Stewart, D-Orlando, held a news conference at the consulate office, urging immigrants to come to the consulate to get help with getting papers and getting their status up to date, even if they aren’t Mexican.

    One of the restaurants Stewart visited is Tortilleria El Progreso Mexican Restaurant, where business has floundered.

    “It’s really empty,” Aleshae Dublan said in an interview with News 6 Friday, as she looked around at the vacant tables throughout the restaurant.

    Dublan’s uncle owns the business, which includes a restaurant and market.

    She estimated that revenues are down about 40%, a trend she attributes to fear of federal immigration raids to combat illegal immigration.

    “(Employees) get scared and they live in fear that people might come here,” Dublan claimed.

    She said that some employees have quit, fearing that walking into work could make them vulnerable.

    “A lot of our employees are in the process of getting documentation and everything,” she said. “They’re scared of coming to work.”

    Dublan said that there have been no ICE raids at Tortilleria, but she believes the fear of an operation happening has kept customers away —even her parents.

    “It does scare me because my parents are illegal, as well,” Dublan said. “My family came to this country to give us something better, and for them to even be scared to step foot in here is sad.”

    Stewart said she visited dozens of Hispanic restaurants in Orange County in the last month, and they are telling her that business has dropped off between 30% and 65%.

    “They come in and take the cooks away from the restaurant,” Stewart said. “They come in plain clothes and walk around and listen for the Spanish language. And then they question them, they don’t know what nationality. They’re just looking at the color of their skin and their language.”

    Stewart said ICE agents have been known to “park themselves” in areas where Hispanic people typically live. In Orange County, Stewart says they’ve been noticed on the east side in the Chickasaw, Goldenrod and Semoran areas. She does not know if this is also the case on the west side of the county.

    Reporter Stephanie Rodriguez also reported about a Kissimmee resident who had an ID and a work permit and was in the process of getting a green card when he was detained by ICE while at the Grand Canyon.

    And reporter Troy Campbell reported on a Venezuelan man in Orange County who was detained last month while at a hearing. He had lost his temporary protected status under a policy change by the Trump administration.

    Florida has the largest number of residents living under temporary protected status, with 357,895 people, according to a 2024 congressional report. Nearly 60% of those are Venezuelan.

    “If you’re unsure about your status, say you’ve even made an appointment to go renew your status,” Stewart said. “They’re afraid to go there because they’re afraid if they go to renew their status, they’ll be arrested. And it’s been hard. It’s been hard on the people wanting to work, but it’s been really hard on the businesses because they’re losing so much business. They say I don’t know how much longer I can stay in business like this.”

    It’s not just employees. Stewart says the restaurants are also empty, as customers opt for delivery or pick up to avoid being in a place where ICE might be.

    Sabines says it is happening to businesses in other areas of the state as well. His consulate works with 48 counties in Florida.

    “Many of them are closing because they don’t have any more customers. And they pay taxes. They create employees. This is terrible,” Sabines said.

    https://www.clickorlando.com/news/florida/2025/07/18/ice-targeting-hispanic-restaurants-in-orlando-frightening-immigrants-advocates-say/

    1. The Mexican consulate

      Anyone remember when a “Matricula Consular” ID card was treated as a defacto Green Card? It just goes to show how far back this nonsense has been going on.

    2. “Many of them are closing because they don’t have any more customers. And they pay taxes. They create employees. This is terrible,” Sabines said.

      Hey, Mr. Consul, here’s an idea: why don’t you repatriate all of these people back home and have them be entrepreneurial there? Sure, it would strike a blow to the remittances racket you guys depend on so much, but you can overcome that with hard work. Just don’t forget to pay the cartels their protection money.

    3. It’s not just employees. Stewart says the restaurants are also empty, as customers opt for delivery or pick up to avoid being in a place where ICE might be.

      seems to me ICE might want to start signing up to do some doordashing. Let them open the door for you? “Hi, i’m here with your doordash order are you “Mary Jones”? Yes? Well, here’s your order, now place your hands behind your back.

  20. In SC ,the way most cops, both state patrol and especially local, most often handle a traffic stop of an alien without a license or Insurances, is to issue an immediate $200. “Fine” ,on the spot ,and has to be cash , and they’re on the way . I don’t think any of that so called “Fines”, money ever sees the light of day, it augments their pay, and yeah , it happens ,so they carry that cash with them for that exspress purpose……

    1. How did you acquire the knowledge that:
      “….most cops, both state patrol and especially local, most often handle a traffic stop of an alien without a license or Insurances, is to….”

    2. I call BS on “most cops”. There are corrupt cops no doubt. But if “most” cops take bribes, it would be on tik-tok, utube etc. painting a picture and broad brushing all cops as corrupt.

  21. ‘In Miami Beach, where there’s more of a mix of both luxury and ultra-luxury homes, prices were up across both segments by 14.6%, but sales were down by 25%. While condos saw better sales as prices sagged by 25% compared to 2024, single-family homes saw fewer sales but prices fell by a lesser 15%’

    Miami Beach joins the 20% or more club.

  22. ‘‘Even as negotiating leverage continues to lean in the favor of homebuyers, many sellers have yet to adjust their strategy to current market conditions…That’s leading to conflict between sellers who are unwilling to lower prices and demanding buyers. ‘Many current sellers are homeowners who may want to move but don’t necessarily need to. With substantial equity, low interest rates locked in, and little financial pressure, these sellers are holding onto price expectations that may be unrealistic’

    This is yet another UHS sponsored post lambasting greedy sellers.

  23. ‘February, trickle. March, a few dozen went on market, and most if not all sold.’ But now, with a greater number of lots on the market and relatively few closing sales, the ‘absorption rate is going down, down, down,’ she said. In the first week of July, 29 new lots went on the market in Altadena, she said, and only four sold. Fuller said a couple came to her in March with a lot she estimated would get $905,000. Now they’re ready to list, but with a far lower estimate: $730,000. The homeowner cried when she heard the figure, saying, ‘This is all we have to move on,’ according to Fuller. Another lot she represents dropped from $1.295 million to $795,000’

    Californians = broke a$$ losers.

  24. ‘Art Davis didn’t think he’d end up as a seller. The 82-year-old wanted to rebuild. At dinners with neighbors, they rallied around the idea of resurrecting their community. But hurdles began cropping up immediately”

    From the article:

    ‘As her family confronts the decision to sell, Gurewitz has noticed a change in social pressures around the market for lots. If neighbors mentioned selling several months ago, she said, they received intense negative feedback…’In public, they would be like, yes, we’re going to rebuild,’ she said. In private, they would confide that they were unsure…Nobody wanted to admit that because it was considered to be letting down your neighbors’…Even her friends who were most committed to the cause of rebuilding are now reconsidering. Now people are being more supportive of the idea of selling’

    These idiots virtue signal on everything.

  25. ‘DeVries repossessed it. She says they were part of a litter bred for profit in the bathroom. What started as a standard lease to three university students and their mother, turned into a months-long ordeal involving 12 tenants, nearly 14 animals and tens of thousands of dollars in damage. DeVries says the process of removing them was delayed at nearly every turn. Now, she is calling for urgent reform to Prince Edward Island’s rental tribunal. ‘I’m in shock. I’m devastated,’ DeVries said. ‘Seeing it being destroyed, not being able to do anything about it, it’s very gutting.’ She estimates $80,000 in damages. Outside, DeVries says the tenants dumped truckloads of horse manure’

    How do you like those 5% cap rates now Thamara?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *