It’s Tempting To Shoot High, But That Often Backfires
It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “As tourism slumps in Las Vegas, the residential and commercial real estate markets are showing similarly worrisome signs, according to analysts and stakeholders. Las Vegas homebuilders are selling fewer houses to would-be buyers. Through the first half of this year, builders sales were down 24 percent from the same stretch last year, according to Home Builders Research data. Construction of commercial real estate as well as projects in the pipeline are slowing in the Las Vegas Valley, data shows. Robert Little, a real estate agent with Re/Max, said he remains ‘bullish’ on the valley’s residential real estate market and doesn’t believe the underlying statistics point to a larger problem down the road for Las Vegas’ overall economy. Little said the biggest issue for the housing market is elevated mortgage rates. ‘Yes, rates are high, and there is a lot of people who don’t want to sell because they are locked into a low rate or they are coming from other markets like California,’ he said. ‘And they can’t sell their house which is why inventory is a little bit higher than it has been before.'”
“The valley has been consistently leading the country in the increase of homes on the market for sale over the past few months. In July alone, single-family home listings were up 54.2 percent from a year while condo and townhome listings were up 77 percent.”
“Flagler County’s unemployment rate in July rose to 5 percent, from 4.8 percent the previous month, the highest jobless rate since July 2021, when it was still trending down from the Covid pandemic slowdown. Palm Coast’s unemployment rate of 4.9 percent also matches a four-year high. The housing inventory in the county–the number of houses available for sale–hit a 15-year high, according to the latest available figures. Other signs suggest a slowdown in Flagler County’s economy, which is heavily driven by housing. The number of active listings for houses was 1,444 in April, up 34 percent from a year earlier, according to the Flagler County Association of Realtors. It is the highest inventory since February 2011, when the county was recovering from the housing bust. It was taking 43 percent more time for a house on sale to get to a contract, compared to a year ago, and the supply of housing had risen to six months. The figures strongly suggest that a housing glut may be building in the county, as construction continues apace. Meanwhile, employment in the construction sector dipped by 1,000 jobs, after declining by 1,600 positions in June, according to the report.”
“The Katy–Fulshear housing market saw inventory climb to record high levels in July, while home sales slowed for the second month in a row. At the same time, the number of homes sold slipped from June, showing signs that demand is easing as the summer season winds down. With more homes to choose from and sales moving at a slower pace, buyers are in a stronger position to negotiate. For sellers, record-high inventory means standing out is more important than ever. Homes that show well and are priced competitively can still sell quickly, but those that overshoot the market risk sitting on the market. Zip‑code snapshots: 77493, Prices: median $328,065 ‑12.5% YoY. What this means: New‑construction‑heavy areas continue to carry large inventories and lower price points; volume held up, but year‑over‑year pricing is softer.”
“Recent data from the Colorado Association of Realtors indicates that while housing inventory has increased statewide, homebuyers remain cautious due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty. Longtime local realtor Julie Kersting with 8z Real Estate emphasized that working with a knowledgeable local agent can help sellers navigate the subtleties of the Chaffee County market. She warned against the common pitfall of overpricing. ‘It’s tempting to shoot high, especially in a tight market. But that often backfires,’ Kersting said. ‘Homes that sit for too long lose momentum and negotiating power.’ Instead, she suggested listing at or slightly below market value to attract more interest from the outset. Strategic underpricing, in the right conditions, can even lead to competitive offers.”
“Roughly 1.39 million residential properties, equal to 1.3% of the nation’s housing stock, sat vacant as of September 2025, ATTOM said in its quarterly Vacant Property and Zombie Foreclosure Report. Zombie activity was most concentrated in a handful of neighborhoods. Los Angeles’ 91001 zip code led the nation with more than 80% of its foreclosure pipeline abandoned. Peoria, Indianapolis, Tampa and Cleveland also ranked among the highest-risk pockets.”
“Early last year, vandals breached fencing, climbed dozens of flights of stairs and painted bold, colorful graffiti on the exterior of three unfinished high-rises that make up the abandoned Oceanwide Plaza development. The so-called Graffiti Towers — visible from great distances on the 110 Freeway and looming over thousands of visitors attending events across the street at Crypto.com Arena — were expected to be sold in a bankruptcy auction a year ago. But the long-running bankruptcy sale of downtown Los Angeles’ most spectacular eyesore drags on with no clear end in sight. Construction on what would have been one of the city’s most notable landmarks, with high-rise housing, a hotel and a shopping center, halted in 2019 when Beijing-based conglomerate Oceanwide Holdings ran out of money to pay contractors after spending $1.2 billion on the complex that fills a large city block on Figueroa Street.”
“Resolution of the Oceanwide Plaza saga also can’t come soon enough for many downtown stakeholders who see the graffitied towers — rising as high as 49 stories — as a dark presence besmirching the city and sending a negative message about the neighborhood. ‘The Graffiti Towers have worldwide infamy at this point,’ said Cassy Horton, co-founder of the DTLA Residents Assn. ‘It’s like this beacon that shines and says, ‘Come create mischief down here and you won’t get in trouble. This is the spot to do it.’ Los Angeles architect Douglas Hanson, who designed the 35-story Circa apartment complex next to Oceanwide Plaza, has an idea to shield people’s gaze from the graffitied towers and bring in some money. He suggests rolling down vinyl advertising signs that could be seen on the from the freeway on the west side of the complex and lowering other vinyl coverings on the east side that would display a beach scene or some other art.”
“Residents in the small northern Ontario township of Fauquier-Strickland are facing a possible 80 per cent property tax increase this year as the community works to dig itself out of a financial deficit. In early July, Fauquier-Strickland Mayor Madeleine Tremblay said the municipality would need to shut off services like garbage collection by Aug. 1 if the province didn’t intervene with financial support. At that time, council also proposed a tax increase of up to 200 per cent to pay off the municipality’s deficit and cover basic services. But Davidson’s proposal for an 80 per cent increase instead wasn’t well received by residents. ‘They’re trying to put a budget through that nobody can afford,’ said Donald Armstrong, who attended the council meeting. He said he’s been trying to sell his home, but that fell through when news about Fauquier-Strickland’s financial troubles broke. ‘So now me and my wife are stuck here because we can’t sell the house,’ Armstrong said. ‘Nobody wants to move into a municipality that’s literally on the verge of bankruptcy.'”
“The lighthouse-inspired Chesil Cliff House, which featured on what was dubbed the ‘saddest ever’ episode of Grand Designs, has finally sold after 12 years of renovations. The property’s construction left its owner, Edward Short, 57, in a staggering £7m debt. The building process took over a decade and went several million pounds over budget, impacted by the recession and ultimately leading to the end of Edward’s marriage to his wife Hazel. The house was showcased on Channel 4’s Grand Designs, with many viewers describing it as the ‘saddest episode ever’ following its airing in October 2019. The programme followed Edward and his family as they faced numerous setbacks, leaving the house in Croyde, Devon, unfinished and the family burdened with millions of pounds worth of debt. The five-bedroom home was put back on the market in January 2024 for £5.25m and was eventually sold in October 2024. ‘I am relieved it is sold; it gives me closure. I put everything I could as a person to make it work, but it didn’t. It is not the end of the world, but it was a financial failure.'”
“On an empty plot in Gurgaon’s Sector 91 surrounded by 15 imposing high-rises — some completed, others still under construction — a group of people gathered around a flagpole. With solemnity, they hoisted the Tricolour to mark Independence Day. These individuals are among nearly 600 families who booked flats in the Fernhill Group Housing Project in Sector 91 (near Manesar) back in 2011. Fifteen years later, they are still waiting for their homes. Over the years the venture became mired in allegations of fraud and financial mismanagement, leaving buyers stranded without homes or refunds, claimed members of the Flat Buyers’ Welfare Association. Retired Air Vice Marshal SS Chauhan, who attended the event, said he wanted to move here after his previous home in Sushant Lok 1 became surrounded by four-storey buildings in 2017, blocking air and sunlight. ‘Even till 2021, it (Fernhill flat) was still not ready… it has been a long and painful struggle,’ he said.”
“China Evergrande – the poster child of China’s ludicrous real estate frenzy – is set to crash and burn. But the tangled wreckage of its $300-billion collapse could take a decade to extinguish. Evergrande Group faces delisting from the Hong Kong Stock Exchange on Monday, an outcome the Communist Party leaders are likely happy to see, given the dark shadow it has cast on their closed and woefully unbalanced system. The developer started with a strong public market debut and a stock value of $9 billion in late 2009 that grew more than five-fold to $51 billion eight years later, only to plummet to earth in recent years. It is now worth a meagre $282 million. The company’s journey from stock exchange darling to a pariah in the financial markets is a cautionary tale of unbridled debt-fuelled expansion.”
“Hopes for some homebuyers and investors who put their money in Evergrande’s wealth management products are also diminishing. ‘After a lot of property viewings, I chose Evergrande because I thought such a big developer would not collapse. I was wrong,’ Douyin user 8AD2D1D4, who was waiting to receive his home purchase, wrote in the social media post. And he is likely one of many thousands.”
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“In July alone, single-family home listings were up 54.2 percent from a year while condo and townhome listings were up 77 percent.”
Yeah….no problem here.🙄
Is that a lot?
The Katy–Fulshear housing market saw inventory climb to record high levels in July…Prices: median $328,065 ‑12.5% YoY. What this means: New‑construction‑heavy areas continue to carry large inventories and lower price points’
These two sh$tholes are near Houston Texas. I’ve never been there but I don’t have to cuz I know exactly what it looks like. Mile after mile of subdivisions with cutesy names that look exactly the same. And they hyphenate the names because you’d never know you were in a different town if they didn’t have signs. When you leave one place there are miles of others on flat swampland. The humidity down there is almost as bad as Belize.
When you leave one place there are miles of others on flat swampland
A friend lives in one of those suburban Houston neighborhoods. The last time a hurricane hit the area his street flooded and the water was approaching his front porch. He sent me a picture of someone sailing down his street in an airboat.
During Hurricane Harvey (IIRC) former boss of mine that lives in Katy sent his wife and mother-in-law out and stayed behind when the reservoirs overflowed. He moved everything in the house up to the second floor and eventually got picked up by a boat. Sounds delightful!
‘The housing inventory in the county–the number of houses available for sale–hit a 15-year high, according to the latest available figures…It is the highest inventory since February 2011, when the county was recovering from the housing bust’
Is that a lot?
‘It was taking 43 percent more time for a house on sale to get to a contract, compared to a year ago, and the supply of housing had risen to six months. The figures strongly suggest that a housing glut may be building in the county, as construction continues apace. Meanwhile, employment in the construction sector dipped by 1,000 jobs, after declining by 1,600 positions in June’
A bunch of Guatemalans getting fired down there. Lot’s of unemployment stats at the link. The Villages is the highest in Florida at 7%.
‘Zombie activity was most concentrated in a handful of neighborhoods. Los Angeles’ 91001 zip code led the nation with more than 80% of its foreclosure pipeline abandoned’
One would think in a wonderland where gold nuggets lie under every El Camino in the front yard, lenders would be interested in getting their money back! Puddle watchers think they discovered shadow inventory 6 months ago, but I posted plenty about it when their mommies were putting sammies in their Fanboy & Chum Chum lunch boxes.
“Potential for renovation to a cute airbnb with that Pensacola old home charm.” Cathi, nobody wants to stay in an airbnb close to the jail, homeless encampment, mental institution, and substance abuse facility. Eat yer own dog food and purchase this “investment” yourself. Its an 87 year old tear down and the lot might be worth 6K, but I wouldn’t even offer that.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1720-W-Avery-St-Pensacola-FL-32501/44669490_zpid/
‘the long-running bankruptcy sale of downtown Los Angeles’ most spectacular eyesore drags on with no clear end in sight. Construction on what would have been one of the city’s most notable landmarks, with high-rise housing, a hotel and a shopping center, halted in 2019 when Beijing-based conglomerate Oceanwide Holdings ran out of money to pay contractors after spending $1.2 billion on the complex’
That’s not the whole story as I blogged this entire sorry debacle. It was an EB-5 visa scam, which was used for laundering money out of China and other sh$tholes:
November 13, 2014
The LA Downtown News. ”Last December, Beijing-based Oceanwide Real Estate Group bought the 4.6-acre site of the Fig Central mega-project. The company is looking to build three towers, one with 49 stories and two others with 40 stories, with condominiums, hotel rooms and nearly 167,000 square feet of retail space. The following month, Shanghai-based Greenland Real Estate Group purchased the 6.33-acre Metropolis site, which had been stagnant for nearly three decades. Already the company is in the midst of construction on a $1 billion, multi-phase project that will create three condominium towers and a 19-story hotel.”
“Then in August, real estate investment firm Shenzhen Hazens snapped up the Luxe City Center hotel, also across from L.A. Live, and two adjoining lots for $105 million. The company is looking at a $250 million reworking of the site, according to the Wall Street Journal. That’s three huge Chinese investments in less than a year in Downtown Los Angeles. According to real estate and global market watchers, it may also just be the start of a flood of cash from China into the community.”
“The sheer mass of capital that institutional Chinese firms hold makes it difficult for some local players to compete, said Hamid Behdad, president of the Central City Development Group. As occurred during the Japanese boom, Chinese investors are able to pay more than market value if they treasure a particular asset. ‘How can local developers compete with the money and speed of investment of Chinese firms?’ he said. ‘I don’t know whether it’s good or bad, but it’s reality. They’re overpaying by a certain percentage, but for the developer it’s safer than just leaving the money in Chinese assets.’”
“That isn’t to say that there is no ceiling to what Chinese buyers will pay. Jones Lang LaSalle Vice President Rob McRitchie has closely watched the situation, and thinks there may be a pullback from Chinese investors. ‘Prices this summer, both for ground-up developments or acquisitions, got to the point where it didn’t make economic sense. I’m hearing prices of $200 a foot in the Historic Core and that’s just not sustainable,’ he said.”
http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=8698
‘The programme followed Edward and his family as they faced numerous setbacks, leaving the house in Croyde, Devon, unfinished and the family burdened with millions of pounds worth of debt. The five-bedroom home was put back on the market in January 2024 for £5.25m and was eventually sold in October 2024. ‘I am relieved it is sold; it gives me closure. I put everything I could as a person to make it work, but it didn’t. It is not the end of the world, but it was a financial failure’
Check out the photos of Ed’s masterpiece. Here’s another article on it:
Grand disasters — the Channel 4 homes that ruined marriages and plunged couples into debt
Since the show first aired back in 1999, viewers have avidly watched hundreds of couples create a place that most of us can only imagine ever living in.
But for some, what started as a dream project has turned into a nightmare storm of debt, divorce and unfinished houses – and all broadcast on national television.
Some have even been forced to complete the project and put it up for sale immediately, desperately trying to make a profit and unable to enjoy the fruits of their labour.
A prime example of this was the infamous Chesil Cliff House in Devon which appeared on Grand Designs for the first time in 2019 – one of the most popular episodes ever.
However, its popularity was due to the disasters that Edward and Hazel Short faced when what was meant to be an 18-month project turned into a decade long ordeal. It was even dubbed the ‘saddest’ Grand Designs property story.
Sadly, the strain of the build put huge pressure on Edward and his wife and seven years into their project, they split up in 2018. Edward admitted in an interview that his ‘ambition and vanity [had] probably collapsed the marriage’.
Unhappy neighbours had savagely compared the house to a ‘north Korean missile bunker’ but after many years of labour Edward, a father-of-two, finished the home.
Edward told Devon Live: ‘I have got used to being a millionaire in debt. I’ve been doing this build for more than 10 years – so have gone past headaches now and built a lot of resilience.’
‘I can not make any plans of what I do next until it is sold – but I would be very surprised if they involved any more big build projects. I think I need a psychiatrist and help with PTSD.’
https://metro.co.uk/2025/08/20/grand-disasters-channel-4-homes-ruined-marriages-plunged-couples-debt-23959080/
More photos at this link.
The raw 2×4 railing looks pretty classy.
** ” Retired Air Vice Marshal SS Chauhan, who attended the event, said he wanted to move here after his previous home in Sushant Lok 1 became surrounded by four-storey buildings in 2017, blocking air and sunlight. ‘Even till 2021, it (Fernhill flat) was still not ready… it has been a long and painful struggle,’ he said.” **
from frying pan to fire.
tut tut, ‘ol chap. stiff upper lip . . and all that stuff & bother.
Be Brit-ish.
Bri-ish
‘The developer started with a strong public market debut and a stock value of $9 billion in late 2009 that grew more than five-fold to $51 billion eight years later, only to plummet to earth in recent years. It is now worth a meagre $282 million. The company’s journey from stock exchange darling to a pariah in the financial markets is a cautionary tale of unbridled debt-fuelled expansion’
Again, not the whole story. Every time the Chi-coms ran out of money they came up with a new debt based ‘financial vehicle.’ It was wall street that facilitated this and the globalist scum media cheerleaders hailed each one as yet another example of how the Chinese were destined to rule the world and our children would learn Mandarin to understand their masters orders. I know it sounds incredible today, but that’s what really happened.
‘Hopes for some homebuyers and investors who put their money in Evergrande’s wealth management products are also diminishing. ‘After a lot of property viewings, I chose Evergrande because I thought such a big developer would not collapse. I was wrong,’ Douyin user 8AD2D1D4, who was waiting to receive his home purchase, wrote in the social media post. And he is likely one of many thousands’
Well it was still way cheaper than renting Douyin user 8AD2D1D4.
A 30+ year old fixer-upper mobile home on 1 acre. Additional acreage available for 50K per acre. What the heck! Its an old mobile home in the middle of nowhere. Those woods are full of bears and gators.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/11200-N-Lakeview-Dr-Milton-FL-32583/47896962_zpid/
Is that filthy toilet seat extension designed so that patient doesn’t have trouble getting upright again? LOL
There is no such thing as a “fixer-upper mobile home.”
C’mon, isn’t that tarp on top an upgrade?
** “I was wrong,’ Douyin user 8AD2D1D4 . . . ” **
” Whats WRONG, user 8ADTHX1138 !?
” I need something stronger.”
“Take four red capsules. In 10 minutes, take two more. Help is on the way.”
“I need something stronger.”
THX1138 needs more of LUH3417’s vertical smile.
Realtors are liars.
Check out Univision’s immigration webpage:
https://www.univision.com/noticias/inmigracion
I tried reading the Univision article but was overwhelmed by pop-ups asking me if I wanted “Girls?” “Taxi?!” “Strawberries??” “Papusas ?”
I do have my pop up blocker turned on
Ben loses money with those settings.
Anyway, the page is full of advice articles: what to do if you are pulled over? etc.
Another article mentions that day laborers are afraid of looking for gigs in California Home Depot parking lots.
The Who (covering the Beach Boys) — Barbara Ann:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8tJ3yAKDAIw&list=RD8tJ3yAKDAIw&index=1
Cream — Badge:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4hjVjYfLMjI&list=RD4hjVjYfLMjI&start_radio=1
How about a Fanny rare live version:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cUWKEGrqrG4
Very cool!
It’s a new moon a few hours ago, so it’s dark this morning. Another few days of 100-degrees plus ahead, so Ruby and I have been hiking early and observing sunrise from the scrub.
Realtors are liars
https://i.ibb.co/FvpR0xS/desert-sunrise-0823.jpg
A very desolate scene.
It might be our driest summer since we’ve been here. Funny thing, we haven’t had any flies this summer either. We usually go through about a dozen of these disposable traps that you fill with water and hang from the eaves near the doors. I still have the first two I bought last Spring.
Curiously we had a wetter than usual summer and almost no flies as well. Mosquitoes seem to be far fewer as well.
Are you hopeful that falling home prices will lead to lower inflation in the US?
Real Estate
The US housing market’s historic slump could send inflation plummeting in the coming year
By Jennifer Sor
FILE PHOTO: Homes are seen for sale in the northwest area of Portland, Oregon, in this file photo taken March 20, 2014. REUTERS/Steve Dipaola/Files
Thomson Reuters
Aug 20, 2025, 9:02 AM PT
– A deep downturn in the US housing market could cause inflation to fall close to 1%.
– Rosenberg Research said it believes the housing market is in its worst slump since 2009.
– That could fuel a drop in home prices, which could hit drive headline inflation figures lower.
Inflation could be about to see a big drop, even with tariffs still looming over the economy.
The US housing market will be a big driver of headline disinflation, according to Rosenberg Research, which foresees a major drop in home prices that could drag the pace of inflation close to 1% — well below the Fed’s 2% price growth target.
The firm, led by top economist David Rosenberg in 2020, said it saw evidence of a “big downturn” in the housing sector. In a note to clients this week, the firm pointed to its proprietary Housing Market Activity index, a gauge of how busy housing is based on eleven indicators of activity.
The index is now showing that housing is mired in its worst downturn since 2009, around the time the subprime mortgage crisis plunged the economy into a recession, Robert Embree, a senior economist at the firm, said.
Ten of the 11 indicators that feed into the index are posting significant declines over the last six-month period, Embree added. Here are the five showing some of the largest drops in activity:
– Housing starts: down 23.9%
– New single-family homes sold: down 23.7%
– Existing homes sold: down 16.1%
– Quarterly New Tenant Rent Index: down 14.2% over the last two quarters
– Potential buyer traffic: down 7 points. This is the most important data point feeding into the index, Embree said.
The only indicator that hasn’t contracted over the last six months is home prices. The Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index, which tracks house prices in 20 major metropolitan areas, is up 0.8% over the last half-year.
But reduced activity will likely weigh on prices, as sellers will need to lower prices in order to entice buyers back to the market. On a six-month basis, the Case-Shiller Composite will likely enter negative territory “very soon,” Embree said.
That could lead to a big drop in inflation down the line — even as some economists worry that tariffs could stoke higher prices for consumers. Shelter prices make up around a third of the consumer price index.
“This housing downturn will have persistent disinflationary consequences into 2026 as today’s low rents compress the shelter component of CPI with a predictable twelve-month lag,” Embree wrote. “The massive drop in new rents implies a headline CPI reading of +1.2% to +1.8% YoY in 2026Q2, depending on the size of the tariff shock.”
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/housing-market-recession-inflation-outlook-us-economy-home-prices-rent-2025-8
“The US housing market’s historic slump could send inflation plummeting in the coming year”
Powell can’t afford asset prices falling much further.
What I find hard to understand is why, despite the Fed’s best efforts to ensure that asset prices always go up, some times they undergo major reversals.
“You can fool some of the people all of the time, and all of the people some of the time, but you cannot fool all of the people all of the time.” —Honest Abe
‘On a six-month basis, the Case-Shiller Composite will likely enter negative territory “very soon,” Embree said.’
For those holding out hope for our federal government’s myriad affordable housing programs to succeed, this is definitely a development to eagerly anticipate.
Do you live in the half of the US where home values are falling?
Axios
Aug 21, 2025 –
Economy
Home prices falling in half of U.S., new real estate data shows
Nathan Bomey
– Single-story white house with a tiled roof, palm tree, green lawn, and a “For Sale” sign listing Joaquin Gonzalez with a phone number under a clear blue sky.
– A home for sale in the Miami Shores neighborhood of Miami on Wednesday.
Photo: Zak Bennett/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Home prices are now falling in about half the country, according to new data from the National Association of Realtors.
Why it matters: The housing market has been a significant driver in wealth creation for Americans in recent years.
Real estate prices are all about “location, location, location,” and right now that’s particularly true — in half the country home prices are still going up, and in the other half they’re falling.
Why it matters: The price data shows that the housing story is more complicated than affordability and still-high mortgage rates, which have cratered demand nationwide. Zoning laws, climate risks and economic vibes also play a big role.
Real estate prices are all about “location, location, location,” and right now that’s particularly true — in half the country home prices are falling, including in Miami.
In the other half, they’re still going up.
Why it matters: The price data shows that the housing story is more complicated than affordability and still-high mortgage rates, which have cratered demand nationwide.
…
Home prices fall in Florida, rise in Midwest and Northeast
A map of the U.S. showing the change in typical home values between June 2024 and June 2024. Home values rose in the Midwest and Northeast and declined in the South and West. The Austin metro area had the largest decline, -5.8%, and the Cleveland metro area had the largest increase, 4.3%. Overall, home values in the U.S. rose 0.2%.
Data: Zillow; Note: Typical home value refers to the average of the middle third of Zillow home value estimates for every home in a given region; Map: Erin Davis/Axios Visuals
…
https://www.axios.com/2025/08/21/home-prices-home-sales
The fever gripping the housing market seems to be breaking. Here’s why
By Samantha Delouya, CNN
Updated 8:34 AM EDT, Tue August 19, 2025
Eric Thayer/Bloomberg/Getty Images
There are some signs that the lack of enthusiasm from house hunters across the country is translating into softening sales prices.
CNN —
For the past few years, Brock and Lori Harris, a husband-and-wife real estate agent team in Los Angeles, have navigated a red-hot housing market. Lately, they say that’s begun to change.
Homes that would have once been flooded with buyer interest are languishing on the market, Lori Harris said.
“In years past, we would have packed open houses and then get 15 offers. Now, we sometimes still have packed opens but only get one offer,” she added.
LA isn’t the only city where the housing market is losing steam. In the years following the pandemic, a fever gripped the housing market: Sellers juggled multiple offers and scarce listings were often bid far above asking.
Now, that fever looks to be breaking.
More homes have come on the market this year, but buyers aren’t biting the way they used to. Tired of high mortgage rates, surging insurance costs and stubbornly expensive listings, many are sitting on the sidelines. The ones who are interested are taking their time and searching for a good deal, real estate agents told CNN. That shift has weakened sellers’ grip on the housing market and given buyers new leverage.
“It feels like buyers are the most cautious they’ve been since the beginning of Covid,” said Brock Harris.
Signs of a slowdown
There are some signs that the lack of enthusiasm from buyers across the country is translating into softening sales prices.
More than one in four home sellers on Zillow cut their asking price in June, according to the real estate search engine. That’s the highest share on record for June since at least 2018, Zillow said.
The pullback in demand is hitting newly constructed homes, as well. A Monday report from the National Association of Home Builders said that 66% of housing construction firms employed sales incentives to attract buyers, the highest percentage in the post-Covid period.
As is always the case with real estate, location matters. More than 30% of the nation’s largest markets have seen prices dip by at least 1% from recent highs, according to an August report by Intercontinental Exchange (ICE).
Few places illustrate the housing market’s reversal as starkly as Florida.
South Florida’s housing market took off after the pandemic, fueled by remote workers drawn to sunshine and relaxed Covid restrictions. But over the past two years, the state’s housing market has significantly stalled – a harbinger of what is now happening in other areas of the country.
“Overall, I would call this a buyer’s market,” Sharon Ross, a real estate agent based in Delray Beach, Florida, said of her area. “We’ve got heavy inventory.”
Price declines in Florida continue to lead all states, ICE found, with 85% of counties in the state showing annual price declines.
Along with Florida, Texas has also seen steep price cuts this year, the report found. Parts of California, Arizona, Colorado and Idaho have seen home prices decline by more than 3% from recent highs, according to the report.
…
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/19/economy/homebuyers-upper-hand-housing-market
Do you feel sorry for all of the overleveraged real estate investors who are losing buckets of money as home price appreciation goes into reverse?
I most certainly don’t!
Oh dear….
https://thehill.com/business/5466569-home-purchases-cancellations-redfin/
Even the ultra-wealthy – the sole beneficiaries of the Fed’s “No Billionaire Left Behind” monetary policies – are being forced to slash their greedhead asking prices.
https://nypost.com/2025/08/22/real-estate/roy-lichtensteins-hamptons-home-now-asks-17-95m-for-sale/
Is there an HBB strike? So quiet here.
K12 schools start soon, so this is it for boating, camping, etc.
Working long hours. For profit, private sector.
For some, it’s funeral season.
No surprise that Canada’s globalist quisling government refused to cooperate with DEA investigation into fentanyl superlabs being set up in Canada to supply the U.S. market across our open northern border. I have no doubt that the CCP works as closely with their ideological junior partners in Canada’s treasonous Liberal Party as they do with our own Democrat-Bolsheviks.
https://www.thebureau.news/p/inside-the-falkland-superlab-how
More bad news for Dumver:
From 9News:
Beverage giant halts $500 million Denver plant project
Coca-Cola canceled plans for a new $500 million bottling facility near Denver Airport, seeking out other sites in the state.
Originally unveiled last summer, the proposed plant carried a $500 million price tag and was projected to bring 200 jobs to the area.
The Dumver Post had some more info:
Xcel delays, missed deadlines doomed proposed Coca-Cola bottling plant near DIA
Setback adds to mounting frustrations from developers about Xcel’s ability to deliver power to proposed metro area projects.
So the heavily regulated Xcel power utility, which is being forced to close coal fired plants. is unable to deliver the power the bottler would need. That and some leftist red tape killed the deal and 200 good paying jobs and a nice tax generating employer just went poof. I wouldn’t be surprised if the plant is built instead in Cheyenne.
Links below.
https://www.9news.com/article/money/business/coco-cola-bottling-facility-dia/73-67632bda-1226-4081-b510-67d0d52b3fb5
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/08/23/swire-xcel-energy-delays/
I’m expecting the Governor and the Mayor to burst into expletive laden diatribes about corporate greed.
Maybe they should look into a fusion (not fission) plant like the one being built in Malaga, WA?
Here’s hoping this works and isn’t a boondoggle. More “power” to them.
200 good paying jobs
When 200 people working at city hall get dejobbed, it’s a tragedy. When 200 private sector jobs are lost, hardly a peep in the media.
I would argue to the contrary:
– 20% reduction in private sector employment = depression
– 20% reduction in fedgov employment = nobody notices until there’s a flood
Xcel can’t provide the power, but what about the water? Colorado is running out of water.
Chinese bridge collapse kills at least 12 construction workers
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/23/china/chinese-bridge-collapse-qinghai-intl?Date=20250823&Profile=CNN
Do you look forward to saying “I told you so” when the Everything Bubble collapses into a pile of financial wreckage?
Markets
‘How big could this bubble get?’: Why a famed strategist says the government bond market could spoil a fragile bull rally
By William Edwards
FILE – In this Jan. 2, 2020, file photo traders monitor stock prices at the New York Stock Exchange. The U.S. stock market opens at 9:30 a.m. EST on Thursday, Jan. 9.
(AP Photo/Mark Lennihan, File)
Associated Press
Aug 23, 2025, 2:30 AM PT
Like the high market valuation levels he warns about, Société Générale strategist Albert Edwards’ bearish missives don’t tend to serve well as near-term market timing tools.
He acknowledges as much.
“An equity investor who heeded my words of caution on the US Tech ‘bubble’ will by now have taken to sticking pins in plasticine models of me,” Edwards wrote in an August 21 note to clients. “Indeed, my ankle has been hurting for over six months and although the physio says it is tendonitis, I strongly suspect otherwise.”
But there’s no denying that Edwards, a stark contrarian amid the pervasively bullish attitude on Wall Street these days, has some concerning observations about where the market sits — particularly with respect to tech stocks, and in the context of government bond yields.
Building on his argument that the market is in a bubble, he highlighted in his latest note that the tech sector now makes up 37% of the total US market, which is higher than at the peak of the dot-com bubble in 2000. Over the last few years, investors have piled into tech amid the frenzied excitement about AI.
Another metric showing that the tech sector has historically high valuations is a falling free cash flow yield. This means that current market prices are high relative to cash flow after expenses as tech firms dump money into AI development. The sector has a free cash flow yield of around two. This is also reflected in the S&P 500’s low dividend yield of 1.2%.
Meanwhile, long-term government bond yields have surged at the same time as the tech rally, and offer virtually risk-free yields of over 4%.
The ratio of 10-year Treasury yields to the market’s dividend yield has climbed to dot-com era levels.
Historically, rising bond yields have weighed on stock valuations, but that hasn’t seemed to be the case so far in this market. Edwards says it’s only a matter of time until that changes.
“Only the other day, interest rates were rock bottom and equity bulls were telling us that sky high equity valuations were justified by TINA — There Is No Alternative,” he wrote. “But that TINA magic no longer works, now that interest rates are so much higher. So, how come the equity market is able to shrug off the relentless rise in long bond yields by feeding off news of strong profits from a handful of mega-cap tech stocks and the promise of more to come?”
“Surely we can all agree that rising bond yields will break the equity market at some point? But when?” he continued, adding: “Goodbye to the post-GFC TINA world when equities yielded almost as much as bonds and hello to an ever more stretched elastic band which will surely eventually snap.”
Bond yields could be on the way down after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took on a dovish tone in his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday. Lower rates are typically bullish for stocks, and the S&P 500 rallied around 1.5% on Friday after Powell’s remarks.
However, it remains unclear how much the central bank will slash rates in the year ahead and how the labor market, consumer spending, and inflation will fare as the economy digests higher tariff rates.
So for now, as he wrote on Thursday, Edwards will keep wondering: “How big could this bubble get?”
…
https://www.businessinsider.com/stock-market-crash-why-government-bond-market-pop-bubble-socgen-2025-8
“Bond yields could be on the way down after Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell took on a dovish tone in his speech in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on Friday.”
tl;dr Bend over, savers!
Twitter
Investing / opinion
Desmond Lachman warns that valuations in the US are increasingly at odds with escalating geopolitical and economic risks
23rd Aug 25, 9:27am by Desmond Lachman
Worried trader
Wall Street traders have been known to joke that the longest river in the emerging-market economies is “de-nial.” But given the irrational exuberance gripping the US stock market – which is trading at historically high valuations, despite escalating geopolitical risks … – one might think they are running cruises on it.
Geopolitical stability appears to be in short supply nowadays. Europe is grappling with its largest land war since World War II; violence and turmoil are again gripping the Middle East; and America’s relations with China are plumbing new lows, with potential consequences for the smooth supply of Taiwanese semiconductors to the United States.
…
https://www.interest.co.nz/investing/134859/desmond-lachman-warns-valuations-us-are-increasingly-odds-escalating-geopolitical
“…violence and turmoil are again gripping the Middle East…”
A constant much like 1-atm = 10-m deep.
It kinda goes back to biblical times and before…
Economy·Housing
The Fed is starting to worry about the housing market now
By Jason Ma
August 23, 2025 at 3:14 PM EDT
A single-family home for sale in Pasadena, California.
Mario Tama—Getty Images
While markets focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, minutes from the central bank’s last meeting revealed concern among some policymakers about the housing market, which has been raising alarms on Wall Street as a slowdown drags on. Fresh data also pointed to more worrying signs, especially in new homes.
Wall Street was laser-focused on the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy this past week, but minutes from the central bank’s last meeting revealed concern among some policymakers about the housing market.
As the sector’s slump drags on, it has triggered more alarm bells because activity in housing, such as residential investment and construction, has often served as a leading indicator on the overall economy.
Minutes from the Fed’s earlier meetings didn’t include such concerns. But that changed during the July 29-30 gathering.
“Participants observed that growth of economic activity slowed in the first half of the year, driven in large part by slower consumption growth and a decline in residential investment,” the minutes, which were released on Wednesday, said.
To be sure, housing was just one of several concerns that policymakers raised. Others included the labor market, the effect of tariffs on inflation, real income growth, elevated asset valuations, and low crop prices.
But Fed officials were also specific about their housing market worries, suggesting they were starting to pay more attention to the data.
“A few participants noted a weakening in housing demand, with increased availability of homes for sale and falling house prices,” the minutes said.
And not only did housing show up on the Fed’s radar, policymakers flagged it as a potential risk to jobs, along with artificial intelligence technology.
“In addition to tariff-induced risks, potential downside risks to employment mentioned by participants included a possible tightening of financial conditions due to a rise in risk premiums, a more substantial deterioration in the housing market, and the risk that the increased use of AI in the workplace may lower employment,” the minutes added.
Housing market data
The fact that the housing market is emerging as a worry at the Fed means that it could also weigh more on rate decisions, which influence mortgage rates.
In his Jackson Hole speech on Friday, Chairman Jerome Powell opened the door to a rate cut at the central bank’s meeting in September after months of maintaining a more hawkish stance, stoking a furious rally on Wall Street and sending the 10-year Treasury yield down sharply.
But in the meantime, fresh data show that the housing market remains stuck as elevated borrowing costs have kept would-be buyers on the sidelines.
Sales of existing homes rose in July but have largely been flat for most of the year, even as the number of listings has climbed, suggesting demand is weak. That’s suppressed home prices, with a gauge of median prices falling in all but one month this year.
“Weekly data suggests home prices may remain subdued in coming months, close to flat on the year or rising only very modestly,” analysts at Citi Research wrote on Thursday. “Home price declines are rare outside of hiking cycles or recessions.”
…
https://fortune.com/2025/08/23/housing-market-fed-warning-home-prices-homebuilding-jobs-powell/
“But in the meantime, fresh data show that the housing market remains stuck as elevated borrowing costs have kept would-be buyers on the sidelines.”
Why doesn’t the fed wait for falling housing prices to align with their recently elevated borrowing costs?
AI·Markets
‘It’s almost tragic’: Bubble or not, the AI backlash is validating what one researcher and critic has been saying for years
By Nick Lichtenberg
August 24, 2025 at 4:02 AM EDT
Gary Marcus
Ramsey Cardy/Web Summit via Sportsfile via Getty Images
First it was the release of GPT-5 that OpenAI “totally screwed up,” according to Sam Altman. Then Altman followed that up by saying the B-word at a dinner with reporters. “When bubbles happen, smart people get overexcited about a kernel of truth,” The Verge reported on comments by the OpenAI CEO. Then it was the sweeping MIT survey that put a number on what so many people seem to be feeling: a whopping 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing.
…
https://fortune.com/2025/08/24/is-ai-a-bubble-market-crash-gary-marcus-openai-gpt5/
a whopping 95% of generative AI pilots at companies are failing
I recall reading that McDonalds had an experimental program where AIs took drive thru orders, and it failed.
So AI is too stoopid to compete with McDonalds workers, then?
How stoopid does that make the greater fools pouring buckets of money into AI investments?
The Guardian
The Nvidia logo on a phone. Behind it is a screen of stock market numbers
Artificial intelligence (AI)
Is the AI bubble about to burst – and send the stock market into freefall?
Phillip Inman
Shares in US tech stocks are falling but it would probably be unwise for fund managers to pull out
Sat 23 Aug 2025 11.00 EDT
There are growing fears of an imminent stock market crash – one that will transform from a dip to a dive when euphoric headlines about the wonders of artificial intelligence begin to wane.
Shares in US tech stocks have fallen in recent weeks and the prospect is that a flood of negative numbers will become the norm before the month is out.
It could be 2000 all over again, and just like the bursting of the dotcom bubble it may be ugly, with investors junking businesses that once looked good on paper but now resemble a huge liability.
Jerome Powell, the Federal Reserve chair, is one of the policymakers tasked with keeping the wolf from the door. Speaking on Friday at the annual Jackson Hole gathering of central bank governors in Wyoming, he tried to calm nerves.
He said the Fed was concerned about rising inflation, while at the same time willing to help an economy dogged by uncertainty induced by Donald Trump and a global economic slowdown.
With stagflation a genuine prospect – as the US economy slows and inflation remains high – Powell gave stock markets a sign that interest rates will fall, easing the pressure on indebted companies.
Stock markets are on Powell’s radar even more than usual now that so many personal pensions in the US are directly invested in listed companies. And, more particularly, tech stocks making huge AI investments that have yet to make a dollar of profit.
A recent Massachusetts Institute of Technology report revealed that 95% of companies investing in generative AI have yet to see any financial returns.
This revelation came after Sam Altman, the boss of the ChatGPT owner OpenAI, warned that some company valuations were “insane”.
Ipek Ozkardeskaya, a senior analyst at the currency trading firm Swissquote, said: “The [Altman] comments may have been a wake-up call for investors, sparking a sharp pullback in high-flying names.”
At the beginning of the week, the share price of the data mining and spyware firm Palantir, which has billions of dollars worth of US government contracts, plunged almost 10%. The AI chip maker Nvidia fell more than 3%, while other AI-linked stocks such as Arm, Oracle and AMD also lost ground.
Most pension funds will be invested in these tech companies, alongside more longstanding names such as Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet (Google) and Meta (Facebook).
Should fund managers pull out? That would probably be unwise.
The scale of investment in AI by the likes of Google and Meta is vast and while the technology’s potential is the subject of much speculation, white-collar workers are becoming more familiar with the supposed benefits with every passing day.
Corporate messages asking them to use AI for presentations, report writing and research are a daily occurrence (accompanied, of course, with hollow assurances that job cuts are not being considered).
…
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2025/aug/23/is-the-ai-bubble-about-to-burst-and-send-the-stock-market-into-freefall
“Corporate messages asking them to use AI for presentations, report writing and research are a daily occurrence (accompanied, of course, with hollow assurances that job cuts are not being considered).”
Why bother forcing employees to make up fake data to prove the importance of AI, when simply lying about its importance would be sufficient and more efficient?
“Is the AI bubble about to burst – and send the stock market into freefall?”
This is not something that stock market investors need to worry about. If a stock goes down in value, you can always wait until the market rebounds and sell for a higher price later, right!?
Fox Business
Opinion
Published August 21, 2025 7:00am EDT
It’s a buyer’s market and nobody is buying: Where Is Jerome Powell?
Existing home sales drop to 3.93M in June while mortgage rates hover near 6.6%
By Ted Jenkin FOXBusiness
If you’ve flipped through the real-estate pages lately – or just tried to pull up Redfin or Zillow – something’s glaringly obvious. Nobody’s moving and nobody’s buying homes right now.
Recently, I took a glance on Zillow at one of the hottest markets in Florida, which is Route 30A in the panhandle. Where it was once almost impossible to see a red dot of something for sale, it now looks like a heat map that a B-52 Stealth bomber just lit up with red dots of bunker busters.
You’ve got homes sitting on the market for weeks – or months – with major price reductions while would-be buyers stare at high mortgage rates, stagnant sales and some places they bought thinking that work-from-home office rules would last forever.
Unless the Fed and Jerome Powell get their act together, our real estate ecosystem will become one large stagnation.
Why It Feels Like Everyone’s Frozen
You’d think summer would spring things to life – but over the summer of 2025? Crickets. June’s existing-home sales clocked in at just 3.93 million – a 2.7% drop from May and treading water year-over-year. That’s the slowest pace since last September. Meanwhile, new-home sales barely budged at 627,000 annualized, still 6.6% below June 2024. It’s like everyone hit the pause button after watching the latest “Million Dollar Listing” show on Bravo.
Golden Handcuffs, Frozen Dreams and Soaring Inventory
We’re seeing a phenomenon called “golden handcuffs.” People aren’t moving – not because they love their homes, but because they can’t afford to leave. Jobs are cooling, relocation perks are rare, and many hold equity in homes they bought years ago at COVID low interest rates and they simply can’t pivot without sacrificing financial stability.
It’s a market held hostage by its own past and unemployment rates hovering near 4.3% aren’t helping the problem. And, to boot, there were so many people who dreamed of never returning to the day-to-day office grind with their mountain or beach getaway, and now the boss has recalled everyone back in the office for the old 9 to 5.
Buyers win big as US housing prices start to drop
Sure, inventory is technically up – active listings rose 24.8% year-over-year in July, hitting post-pandemic highs. But higher inventory hasn’t helped much. That’s because affordability, not availability, remains the choke point.
Meanwhile, in Sun Belt markets like Austin or Miami, price collapses are already underway – nearly 15–19% drops since 2022. Yet that doesn’t mean buyers are flooding in. Not when paying tens of thousands more a year in insurance and property costs has become the new normal.
In fact, rising homeowners’ insurance premiums are up from an average of $2,656 in 2021 to more than $3,303 in 2024 and in some parts of the country you can’t even buy insurance on your home without it be an astronomical cost.
…
https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/its-a-buyers-market-and-nobody-is-buying-where-is-jerome-powell
“Buyers win big as US housing prices start to drop
Sure, inventory is technically up – active listings rose 24.8% year-over-year in July, hitting post-pandemic highs. But higher inventory hasn’t helped much. That’s because affordability, not availability, remains the choke point.
Meanwhile, in Sun Belt markets like Austin or Miami, price collapses are already underway – nearly 15–19% drops since 2022. Yet that doesn’t mean buyers are flooding in.”
There’s never been a better opportunity to catch yourself a falling knife.
“It’s a buyer’s market and nobody is buying: Where Is Jerome Powell?”
Clearly the writer who penned this screed believes that the Fed’s mandate includes ensuring that no real estate investor is left behind.
Financial Times
Opinion The Long View
Tech stocks are sending a warning
Sell-off provides a reminder of the risks of the sector’s dominance in public and private markets
Katie Martin
A trader monitors multiple screens displaying stock charts and data on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
Big tech has done all the heavy lifting for investors in the US this year
© John Angelillo/UPI/Shutterstock
Katie Martin
Published Aug 22 2025
The first inklings of a cooling of the love affair between investors and big tech may be starting to emerge with a sell off in sector stocks this week. Given how tech occupies a special place in the markets ecosystem, it is a warning that should be taken seriously, not just for bracingly upbeat stock valuations but also the darker corners of the financial system too.
Big tech has assumed a dominant position in global public markets because of a winner-takes-all dynamic that has created a handful of almost unfathomably enormous and successful listed corporate giants, particularly in the US. The frenzy around artificial intelligence over the past couple of years has added lashings of fuel to the fire.
Biggest of the bunch, chips behemoth Nvidia, is now worth $4.3tn, or one-and-a-half times the UK’s entire FTSE 100 index, give or take. This has built a very top-heavy structure in US stock markets, which in turn have swelled to occupy an unusually large chunk of global equities.
The 10 biggest companies in the US, which are mostly tech-flavoured, with some finance bolted on at the bottom, now account for some 40 per cent of the S&P 500 and for a third of the revenue growth across the index over the past year. Big tech has done all the heavy lifting for investors in the US this year, hence why the S&P 500 is up 9.5 per cent so far in 2025 while the Russell 2000 index, which tracks smaller stocks, is up a more modest 4.2 per cent.
Up to now, what has been good for tech in general and for AI in particular, has been good for global stocks. If, however, something meaningful were to go wrong with tech in general and with AI in particular then, well, it does not take a genius to figure out where I’m going with this.
And guess what? Doubts are starting to creep in.
…
AI APOCALYPSE is coming: The bubble of overvalued stocks, underperforming apps will burst soon, but who will survive?
Vinod Janardhanan
Authored By Vinod Janardhanan
Published: Aug 22, 2025, 11:52 IST | Updated: Aug 22, 2025, 11:52 IST
AI APOCALYPSE is coming: The bubble of overvalued stocks, underperforming apps will burst soon, but who will survive?
Image strictly for representative purposes only Photograph: (Others)
Story highlights
What we’re covering here: The Artificial Intelligence or AI industry is seeing a looming bust, similar to the dot-com crash. A recent study found that 95 per cent of generative AI pilots failed to deliver return on investment. Who will survive the crash?
The artificial intelligence boom, fuelled by the overvaluation of AI stocks and heavy promotion by experts, industry insiders, and investors like Bill Gates, is beginning to crack. Soaring computing costs are not matching returns on investment (ROI). Experts now warn that we are living in an era much like the dot-com bubble of the late 1990s, which burst at the start of this millennium. Will the AI crash hit in 2026? Who will survive it? Here’s what you should know.
AI boom is starting to crack – AI stocks are already falling
Between 2020 and 2025, the AI sector attracted enormous media attention and capital. The frenzy drew comparisons to the dot-com boom. But recent developments suggest that this period of irrational exuberance may soon face a sharp reality check.
The stock of AI chip giant Nvidia — the poster child of the AI hardware boom — dropped by nearly 7.4 per cent over two consecutive days. This same stock had surged over 3,000 per cent in recent years. The fall reflects a wave of investor scepticism. CoreWeave, one of Nvidia’s cloud computing partners, lost 33 per cent of its value in just two days, wiping out $24 billion in market capitalisation.
What triggered fears of an AI industry collapse?
…
https://www.wionews.com/trending/ai-apocalypse-is-coming-the-bubble-of-overvalued-stocks-underperforming-apps-will-burst-soon-but-who-will-survive-1755840456121/amp
Markets
The Motley Fool-Logo
The Nasdaq Just Reached a Terrifying Valuation Level, and History Is Very Clear About What Happens Next
August 24, 2025 — 06:30 pm EDT
Written by Billy Duberstein for The Motley Fool->
Key Points
– Several market indicators mirror that of the dot-com bubble of late 1999.
– When that tech bubble popped, the Nasdaq plunged 78% over three years.
– Here’s what’s similar about today’s AI-crazed market, what may be different, and what investors should do now.
Investors have ridden an incredible recovery from the April 2 “Liberation Day” tariff surprises. Since the April 8 low, the Nasdaq Composite has appreciated an incredible 40%. And of course, that recovery has taken place amid a decade-long bull market in technology growth stocks.
It’s easy to understand why. Society is becoming more digital and automated. The last 10 years have seen the emergence of cloud computing, streaming video, digital advertising, the pandemic-era boom in electronic devices and work-from-home, all topped off by the introduction of generative artificial intelligence (AI) marked by the unveiling of ChatGPT in late 2022.
However, after a long tech bull market, technology growth stocks have reached a worrying valuation level relative to other stocks, and today’s relative overvaluation mirrors an infamous period in stock market history.
Echoes of the dot-com era?
In several ways, technology stock performance and valuations are currently mirroring the extremes of the dot-com boom of the late 1990s. Unfortunately, we all know how that period ended, with a terrible “bust” that sent the Nasdaq tumbling three years in a row, eventually culminating in a 78% drawdown from the March 10, 2000, peak.
…
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/nasdaq-just-reached-terrifying-valuation-level-and-history-very-clear-about-what-happens
“When that tech bubble popped, the Nasdaq plunged 78% over three years.”
Can you think of a better way to get to lower mortgage rates?
I certainly can’t!
Fed: the Economy Is Even Worse Than We Realized
https://newrepublic.com/post/199467/federal-reserve-jerome-powell-economy-worse
“The combination of tariff-driven inflation and a downturn in hiring has posed a “challenging situation” for the U.S. economy, according to Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.”
My wife drove through Seattle last week using the express lane, and the bill arrived today, which I paid by scanning their QR code:
Payment amount: $6.90
Processing Fee: $3.99 <— really?
Total: $10.89
Time for a hike with Ruby. Ciao!
Fresh pollen is abundant,,, Fall is near.
I do not see anything in the desolate scene above that could produce any pollen.
Our hike passes over an aquifer, and it’s thriving with plants, rabbits, coyote, the occasional owl, etc., and the air temperature even drops there. You can feel the gradient, suddenly, like walking into cooled building.
That sounds cool!
If it feels like a scripted #Narrative, it’s a scripted #Narrative.
Washington Post — England’s flag is swept up in an anti-immigration wave energized by Trump (8/22/2025):
“at heated far-right and anti-immigration protests across Britain this month, some campaigners are flying the same red-and-white flag for another purpose: to call for Britain’s borders to be shut, protest the government’s use of hotels to temporarily accommodate asylum seekers, and call for deportations.
Over the past four weekends, he said, there have been at least 100 anti-migrant protests across the country — in towns from Wakefield in the north to Bournemouth on the southern coast — where many people used the flag as a barbed symbol of nationalism.
Photographs from the protests show the flag appearing alongside anti-migrant slogans such as “Illegals up, safety down” and “Protect our women and children,” a reference to a xenophobic stereotype that seeks to associate migrants with sexual crimes.”
^ Rotherham
https://archive.md/z0jPp
And globalist scum media The Guardian piles on.
Flags as symbols of prejudice, not pride – and a distinct air of menace. Welcome to England 2025 (8/24/2025):
“Despite claims that it is all about patriotism rather than prejudice, what has materialised up and down the country feels like an unauthorised version of what the Home Office used to call the hostile environment, as if football hooligans have taken control of road markings and street furniture. And the relevant mood music is not exactly subtle. On the campaign’s Facebook page, there are enthusiastic looks ahead to September’s “free speech” rally fronted by the far-right figurehead Tommy Robinson, notices about looming protests outside hotels used to house asylum seekers and terse allusions to the usual conspiracy theories (“our masters have sold us to Islam … the replacement has begun”).
‘A dangerous moment’: the emboldening of Britain’s far right (8/24/2025):
“There has not been widespread rioting of the kind that occurred last summer, sparked by the murder of three girls at a dance class in Southport and false rumours that the perpetrator was a Muslim asylum seeker. But as communities braced for further widespread protests this weekend, a campaign to raise the flags of St George and the union jack across the country gathered pace, declaring as patriotism what many others have experienced in their villages or streets as clear intimidation. According to the anti-extremist groups Hope Not Hate and Stand Up to Racism, the apparently spontaneous campaign has in fact been organised by well-known far-right figures.
“We are in a dangerous moment,” says Lewis Nielsen, an anti-fascist officer at Stand Up to Racism. In the context of increased far-right protests and encouraging political rhetoric, he says, “the ‘Operation Raise the Colours’ was never about flags, it’s about giving confidence to racists and fascists to target refugees and migrants”.
No links provided for the Guardian articles.
Things are getting heated in Britain and England in particular.
General elections are four years away, unless Starmer dissolves the government, but since it isn’t a coalition government he has no need to do so and Labour will continue full speed on its mission to destroy the UK.
Leftists complain about the US Electoral College as being undemocratic. But Labour took complete control of the British government with just 33% of the vote. The rest was split by the Conservatives and Nigel Farage’s new Reform party. Labour won almost two thirds of the seats in Parliament. Two thirds,
Short of an nationwide uprising that topples the government, Britain is stuck with Labour for four more years. The only thing I am uncertain of is if Starmer will order British troops to open fire on the mostly disarmed citizenry should they get too rowdy trying to take back its birthright.
Pitchfork and torches time.
I saw a very apt comment about Englishmen flying their flag. Not the Union Jack, but the English flag, which is white with a red cross.
Anyway, the comment was that if your government bans you from waving your flag, then you are living under a foreign occupation. And globalists are foreign occupiers.
Kracker barrrelll nu ad…
https://www.facebook.com/reel/695120280209499
FWIW, there are too many chain restaurants. FJB’s inflation has decimated too many people’s “fun” money, as they struggle to make monthly payments on housing, vehicles and other necessities.
Going out for a breakfast for two can easily exceed $50. Anyone remember when a Denney’s Grand Slam was just a few dollars?
Wokeness has only cost them $100M thus far.
Perhaps the actual goal is to destroy Cracker Barrel?
It can be tricky to differentiate malice from incompetence.
UK Subs — I Live In A Car:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FxwEORDeng&list=RD7FxwEORDeng&start_radio=1
Dumb question of the day:
How can private insurance companies afford to offer homeowners insurance in California, given the entire state’s propensity to go up in flames?
https://youtu.be/AmivcsXRw78?si=24gw8GtD9TVVSc2X
Given decades of Fed-induced irrational exuberance in California housing prices, there is little reason to expect fundamentals to apply.
Nonetheless, fundamentals suggest that higher insurance premiums should reduce the market value of California housing to owners, whose costs include homeowners insurance.
“…homeowners insurance in California…”
The state’s progressives are determined to limit the premiums, so the homeowner’s coverage is inadequate.
I know a really radical idea….
you could build a much smaller house that would be fully insured.
US investors needn’t concern themselves with the article I’m about to post: It’s different here in ‘merica.
What happens in China stays in China…like COVID did.
Financial Times
China Evergrande Group
Evergrande delisting marks end of era for China’s property sector
Real estate developer ejected from Hong Kong stock exchange after spectacular rise and fall
Apartment buildings belonging to China Evergrande Group in Nanjing, with clustered towers and surrounding greenery
Evergrande’s default in 2021 alerted the world to a cash crunch in China’s property sector
© AFP via Getty Images
Thomas Hale in Shanghai and William Sandlund in Hong Kong
Published an hour ago
Evergrande, the world’s most indebted property developer, has been officially ejected from Hong Kong’s stock exchange, bringing down the curtain on the public status of a company that embodied the rise and fall of China’s real estate sector.
The developer, which specialised in residential apartments, shook global markets after a 2021 default on offshore bonds alerted the world to a cash crunch in China’s property sector.
Evergrande’s shares had been suspended since January last year, when a Hong Kong court put the listed entity into liquidation after years of restructuring talks fell through. The stock exchange said last week it would cancel its listing on Monday, after it failed to meet the bourse’s resumption guidance of having to recommence trading of its shares within 18 months.
Evergrande’s rise made its founder Hui Ka Yan one of the richest men in Asia, and its ongoing unwinding is being closely watched by observers of China’s vast property sector, which remains under pressure.
A disclosure from liquidators Alvarez & Marsal this month showed that just $255mn of assets, including a painting by Claude Monet, had been recovered in the past 18 months.
Evergrande had total assets of Rmb1.8tn ($250bn) in 2022, with the vast majority within mainland China’s distinct legal regime, posing a challenge to recovery.
Its vast total liabilities of more than $300bn — also mostly within the mainland — encapsulated the debt-driven nature of China’s property sector after economic reforms in the 1990s and a historic wave of urbanisation.
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Education
Realtor’s raw, emotional take on why nobody can afford a house is beautifully devastating
“Corporations should not be allowed to buy single family dwellings.”
Heather Wake
08.20.25
Realtor Zachary Loft discusses why it’s impossible for young people to afford a home right now.
We’ve heard plenty of people lament the fading American Dream of being able to buy a home. But hearing that lamentation from the very people who sell that dream…it hits a bit different.
Delaware-based realtor and realty coach Zachary Loft (@zacharyloft) has had a very successful, very profitable career. In a recent TikTok video, he shared that he’s been able to make upwards of $400,000 in one year, essentially erasing any worries about money.
But over the past six or so years, Loft said that, along with his success, he had a “VIP front row seat to watching the American Dream get sifted away from the working class,” causing him to become disillusioned and fill with despair.
…
https://www.upworthy.com/realtor-explains-housing-crisis
Covid was the only plague in history that increased land/house prices.
I just checked the Telemundo website and it’s all Kilmar, Kilmar, Kilmar. He is the hill they are going to die on.
There is also an article complaining about ICE agents being in the vicinity of elementary schools in Clownifornia, and that people are not sending their kids to school out of fear.
The immigration section of website is pretty big, but consists mostly of video clips, mainly about poor Kilmar Abrego today, who in one clip tells illegals to “fight for freedom”.
https://www.denverpost.com/2025/08/24/what-to-know-four-ways-ice-is-training-new-agents-and-scaling-up/
ICE currently has about 6,500 deportation officers, and it is aggressively looking to beef up those numbers. Acting Director Todd Lyons says he wants to hire an additional 10,000 by year’s end.
The agency has launched a new recruiting website, offered hiring bonuses as high as $50,000, and is advertising at career expos. Lyons said the agency has already received 121,000 applications — many from former officers.
Another day, another housing CR8R data point…
Reuters
New US home sales fall as high borrowing costs stifle housing demand
By Lucia Mutikani
August 25, 20259:23 AM PDTUpdated 13 hours ago
A drone view shows new single family home construction in San Diego, California, U.S., March 25, 2025. REUTERS/Mike Blake/File Photo
Summary
– New home sales fall 0.6% in July; June sales upgraded
– New housing inventory falls to a still-high 499,000 units
– Median new house prices drops 5.9% to $403,800 from year ago
WASHINGTON, Aug 25 (Reuters) – Sales of new U.S. single-family homes fell in July following a sharp upward revision to the prior month’s sales pace, and the overall trend remained consistent with a housing market struggling in an environment of high mortgage rates.
The report from the Commerce Department on Monday bolstered economists’ expectations that the housing market slump could persist through the end of the year. Though mortgage rates have eased on expectations that the Federal Reserve would resume cutting interest rates in September, they continue to outpace wage growth, pushing home ownership beyond the reach of many.
“Affordability challenges and slower job growth in most industries serve as headwinds to the housing market,” said Daniel Vielhaber, an economist at Nationwide. “There is little reason to expect a pick-up in sales through the end of the year due to the combination of still-high mortgage rates and a weakening labor market.”
New home sales dropped 0.6% to a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 652,000 units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. The sales pace for June was upgraded to a rate of 656,000 units from the previously reported pace of 627,000 units.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast new home sales, which make up about 14% of U.S. home sales, would rise to a rate of 630,000 units. Sales declined 6.6% in the Midwest and dropped 3.5% in the densely populated South. They were unchanged in the Northeast and increased 11.7% in the West.
New home sales, which are counted at the signing of a contract, are volatile on a month-to-month basis and subject to big revisions. They dropped 8.2% on a year-over-year basis in July. Government data last week showed single-family homebuilding rebounded in July though permits for future construction rose marginally.
Economists expect that residential investment, which includes homebuilding and home sales through broker commissions, to contract for a third straight quarter in the third quarter.
SEPTEMBER RATE CUT EYED
The housing market has been hardest hit by the U.S. central bank’s tight monetary policy stance. Fed Chair Jerome Powell last week signaled a possible rate cut at the central bank’s September 16-17 policy meeting, in a nod to rising labor market risks, but also noted inflation remained a threat.
August employment and inflation reports due to be published next month will greatly influence the rate decision. The Fed has kept its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range since December.
The average rate on the popular 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has dropped to around 6.58% from 7.04% in mid-January, data from mortgage finance agency Freddie Mac showed. Mortgage rates track the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield. Annual wage growth has slowed to 3.9% from 4.3% in January 2024 in tandem with easing labor market conditions.
The inventory of unsold homes on the market dropped to a still-high 499,000 units last month from 502,000 in June. New housing supply is near levels last seen in October 2007, weighing on house prices. The median new house price dropped 5.9% to $403,800 in July from a year earlier. That was the lowest house price level in eight months.
The bulk of the homes sold last month were priced under $499,000. A National Association of Home Builders survey last week showed the share of builders cutting prices to attract buyers jumped in August to the highest level since 2022.
At July’s sales pace, it would take 9.2 months to clear the supply of new houses on the market, unchanged from June. The inventory of completed new homes for sale was the highest in 16 years.
“The buildup of completed new-home inventory will limit the upside for single-family housing starts in the near-term,” said Nancy Vanden Houten, lead U.S. economist at Oxford Economics. “Given excess inventory, it’s unlikely new home prices will increase on a sustained basis in the near term.”
…
“There is little reason to expect a pick-up in sales through the end of the year due to the combination of still-high mortgage rates and a weakening labor market.”
Sounds like a great time for would-be buyers to stand by and stand back.
“The inventory of completed new homes for sale was the highest in 16 years.”
2025 – 16 = 2009.
To my recollection, both housing and stocks were in a tailspin in 2009, and housing continued to CR8R until the Fed started Quantitative Easing focused on buying down mortgage rates, circa 2012.
R u using dumb borrowed money to gamble on stocks?
Mitrade
Insights
News
Cryptocurrencies
U.S. margin debt hits new all-time high $1.02 trillion as leverage fuels rally
Source Cryptopolitan
Aug 25, 2025 16:52
Margin debt across the U.S. has now hit a record $1.02 trillion in July, after rising by $14.6 billion in just one month, according to data from July released by FINRA.
That jump followed June’s $87 billion explosion, the biggest monthly increase in margin debt ever recorded. In the last two years, borrowing has increased by $400 billion, a 67% gain that’s moving faster than the equity markets themselves.
Adjusted for inflation, margin debt is still slightly below the October 2021 peak, but as a share of GDP, it’s now higher than every other peak in recent history, including the 2000’s Dot-Com era, except for that same 2021 high. The rally that’s been powering stocks is floating on borrowed money.
…
https://www.mitrade.com/insights/news/live-news/article-3-1068048-20250826
U.S. margin debt hits new all-time high $1.02 trillion as leverage fuels rally
Seeing this note makes me think of March 2001 when, at the time, margin debt hit an all-time high. Wonder if the same thing will happen.
All “borrowed” money is dumb because it is on the right side of the balance sheet. Even money isn’t really money, but debt is anti money.
Does the housing panic gripping half of US cities make you want to dump all of your real estate investment hodlings?
Housing panic grips half of US cities as record price cuts send home values tumbling
By TILLY ARMSTRONG, US DEPUTY CONSUMER EDITOR
21:40 25 Aug 2025, updated 02:19 26 Aug 2025
Home prices are falling in half of the nation’s largest markets, a new report reveals —sparking fears that a housing crash is looming.
Sellers are slashing prices at record rates to to lure hesitant buyers put off by soaring mortgage rates and economic uncertainty.
In July alone, 27.4 percent of listings had a price cut — the highest rate ever recorded in Zillow’s monthly data going back to 2018.
It helped push prices down year-over-year in 25 of the 50 largest US cities. Most were in the South and West.
Florida and Texas, in particular, are home to former boomtowns where prices have fallen at the quickest rate over the past year.
Tampa prices are down 6.2 percent, Austin 6 percent, Miami 4.6 percent, Orlando 4.3 percent and Dallas 3.9 percent, according to Zillow.
‘Metros where price corrections are steepest are among those with the largest increase in inventory compared to before the pandemic,’ said Kara Ng, senior economist at Zillow.
In the South in particular, the pandemic housing boom is now flipping into a bust as a result of too many homes being built, leading to supply outweighing demand.
All of the top five metros for price drops over the last year — except Miami — are among the top places for home building permits between 2020 and 2024.
When demand for homes surged during the pandemic, builders were able to respond fastest in these areas because there were fewer land-use restrictions.
But these areas are now seeing a glut of inventory, as homes flood the market but buyers are not biting.
In Florida, in particular, homeowners are struggling to sell amid a growing condo crisis and soaring insurance rates due to the threat of natural disasters.
Price cuts are more common in the South and the Mountain region, according to Zillow, as homeowners desperately try to offload properties.
In some areas where home prices are falling, this is restoring a tiny chunk of affordability which was lost in the early pandemic run-up in prices.
But buyers are likely still running into affordability walls in expensive western coastal metros like San Francisco and San Diego.
More wealthy home shoppers, however, are able to gain leverage in negotiations as high costs and economic uncertainty have pushed their competition to the sidelines.
…
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15032297/home-prices-falling-half-US-cities-crash-fears-sellers-slash-prices.html
Hoping everything is okay with Ben and he is just busy with his business.
Sold for $17,500 in 2016. Considering the age, condition, and location, the value hasn’t increased despite the seller’s wishes.
https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/407-Chaseville-St-Perdido-Key-FL-32507/44675020_zpid/
Someone call Belize for a welfare check, this is getting serious!
“…and he is just busy with his business.”
Way back when I was in business I didn’t need Alan “Magoo” Greenspan to tell me a recession looming. I knew because my clients took forever to submit payment (if at all) for work already completed. I wasn’t “rolling in it” either, so I had trouble paying my obligations too. Glad I didn’t have kids back then when my “main squeeze” departed for greener pastures. Learned many lessons you don’t get with a college degree.
Wow! Includes copper wiring. Who’d have thunk?!
Restore the Republic – End the Fed.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-15033783/Trump-fires-Federal-Reserve-governor.html
I couldn’t imagine sleeping in the same room as Lisa.
God is not mocked.
https://www.themirror.com/entertainment/burning-man-orgy-dome-1352378?
The same thought crossed my mind.
Oh dear….
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15032297/home-prices-falling-half-US-cities-crash-fears-sellers-slash-prices.html
Gosh, I fear that student loan deadbeats won’t have the credit scores needed to get mortgages on overpriced shacks.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/13/older-student-loan-delinquencies-under-trump.html
Once upon a time a working class breadwinner could afford decent housing.
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real-estate/the-australian-dream-in-1975-goes-viral-over-the-cost-of-housing/video/4ba22adea5236babf0fc5e96fa49a337#video
My dream is the North and Northeast, Texas and Florida markets crash hard, maybe that will slow these turds down and stop flooding the Carolina’s. Crash baby crash!
It could have the opposite effect, it could create “refugees”.
I expect people will bail out of NYC if Mamdanibecomes mayor
Actually real estate prices are starting to increase in New York. Which is strange but I read that it might be a lot to do with report back to work Instead of work from home.
Is Ben on another bender? Not judging, just asking.
Even he needs a vacation
Massive dust storm hits Phoenix.
https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/phoenix-arizona-haboob/1809188
Yeah, that’s a haboob!
What happens to RE values if the whole drought-stricken Southwest turns into a dust bowl?
Every time a Real Journalist for a globalist scum media outlet gets culturally enriched by Youth for Kamala, an angel gets its wings.
https://x.com/CitizenFreePres/status/1960419017640042561
I think they’re going to lower interest rates.
Agreed. The debt donkeys are braying, and sales of the big ticket items have stalled. Plus, culling at the fed has begun.
BREAKING – DC Metro Police refused to respond to hundreds of calls about “youths” riding motor vehicles through the streets of Washington, DC last night, defying direct orders from the White House to crack down on such lawlessness.
https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1959702473469198524
Soaring inventory means greedheads better start sawin’ and slashin’ like they mean it if they want to unload their shacks.
https://rubino.substack.com/p/exploding-inventory-is-finally-cutting
The Great Replacement has corporate sponsorship.
BREAKING – A Walmart executive has been fired after taking $30K+ daily in kickbacks from Indian staffing agencies, funneling jobs to Indian nationals while shutting out American workers and abruptly locking out 1,200 contractors.
https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1960070874738172118
Sounds very Indian to me. I mean, I know first hand, corruption, bribery, extorsion is their main law and ethics.
Somebody call the DNC & let them know their voter rolls are off by one.
https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1958899308637409747
Mexico is a narco-state.
https://x.com/WallStreetApes/status/1959834728259088867
Cornershop — Staging The Plaguing Of The Raised Platform:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16vZ_mWdizw&list=RD16vZ_mWdizw&start_radio=1
Prospective buyers are asking to spend the night at shacks they’re interested in. Makes sense, especially if there are AirBnB party houses in the neighborhood, or nuisance barking from neighborhood dogs.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/real-estate/article-15036093/home-buyers-unusual-new-check-buy-properties.html
The DNC must mobilize the Democratic Party’s full resources to halt the deportation of this fine upstanding gentleman.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15035541/Illegal-migrant-sobs-hes-arrested-ICE-Russian-roulette-torture-woman-Venezuela-Texas.html
Mexican drug cartels are exporting their violence to “Ecuador and beyond.” Will “beyond” include Democrat-Bolshevik malgoverned states where the political “leadership” and DEI law enforcement will be amenable to cartel “silver or lead” inducements?
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/mexican-drug-cartels-ecuador-violence-29153688
The Soros Scum are becoming more militant, probably emboldened by the failure of Bondi and Kash to go after the brains & funding sources of radical-left subversion and terrorism.
https://nypost.com/2025/08/27/us-news/worse-than-antifa-inside-the-new-breed-of-extreme-activists/
“Members of the Zizians, a transgender extreme veganism cult, are accused of going on a multi-state killing spree, claiming six lives.”
Are their parents proud of their contribution to society?
Do you realize that US housing prices are taking a deep dive into the CR8R, that has already been ongoing for months on end?
How are highly leveraged real estate investors coping with the prospect of massive losses? Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index: Home Prices Fall for Fourth Straight Month
by Jennifer Nash, 8/26/25
Home prices declined in June as the benchmark national index fell for a fourth straight month. The seasonally adjusted home prices for the national index saw a 0.3% decrease month-over-month and a 1.9% increase year-over-year. This marks the fifth straight month annual gains have slowed and is the smallest annual increase since July 2023. After adjusting for inflation, the monthly change fell to -0.6% and annual change fell to -2.2%.
…
https://www.advisorperspectives.com/dshort/updates/2025/08/26/s-p-cotality-case-shiller-index-home-prices-fall-for-fourth-straight-month
In spite of the projection that AI and Robots are going to replace 50 % of human jobs in the next 5 to 7 years, no regulation, taxes or preparing for this game changing replacement of human jobs by our elected Politicians.
Its evident that Industry just wants to force this AI/Robot replacement and never mind the welfare disaster along with not enough taxes to fund the Governments with previous taxpayer workers being eliminated.
So, in theory this replacement would bankrupt the current workers to be eliminated , as well as tax revenue to fund the Government.
No meaningful discussion by Governments or regulations on this global game changing replacement by AI and Robots.
An episode of Gilligan’s Island makes more sense than the left’s policies.
Methinks the NAR has leveraged its Deep State assets to have Ben abducted & taken to a CIA black site.
Ben’s absence is starting to get worrisome… anyone able to contact him outside of online?
Are you bummed out to see San Diego home prices in decline?
What is this going to do to the poor overleveraged buyers who got in at the top if the market?
Times of San Diego
San Diego home market in ‘remarkable transformation’ as prices fall again
Avatar photo by Chris Jennewein • Times of San Diego Aug. 27, 2025, 3:44 p.m.
An open house sign by Coldwell Banker.
Photo by Alexander Nguyen
San Diego home prices fell again in June and turned negative for the last 12 months in what the authoritative Case-Shiller index termed “a remarkable transformation” from the boom years.
Prices for single-family homes fell 0.31% in June following a 0.08% decline in May, and are down 0.61% for the past 12 months.
While Tampa was the worst major market, “several Western markets including San Diego and San Francisco have joined the negative column — a remarkable transformation from their earlier boom years,” said Nicholas Godec of S&P Dow Jones Indices.
…
https://timesofsandiego.com/business/2025/08/27/san-diego-home-market-in-remarkable-transformation-as-prices-fall-again/
Ben, are you OK?
Have been reading/posting on this blog for maybe 20 years and this is his longest absence.
He’s been approving posts. Probably just busy.
That’s good to hear, Bear. Even if he doesn’t have time to post a blog entry, I hope he’ll have time to at least put in a comment at some point.
He’s still spiking some posts. Ask me how I know this. Probably preoccupied with more pressing matters, and will re-emerge in his own good time.
How do you know this?
Lemme guess — you posted a couple of test comments full of red flags and profanity just to see if it made it out of moderation?
Thank you for doing this.
Lemme guess — you posted a couple of test comments full of red flags and profanity just to see if it made it out of moderation?
I generally avoid using profanity in my posts or IRL. Some of my more political posts or comments could be regarded as OT – not by me, of course – and therefore don’t make it out of moderation.
But how do you know that the posts were spiked/deleted? Or are they still in moderation, which means that Ben hasn’t done anything? We’re Jonesing for activity of any kind.
One comment has remained in moderation for many days according to the JT Extension.
Best wishes Ben, whatever is going on.
But how do you know that the posts were spiked/deleted?
I’ve had posts sit in moderation for hours, but eventually be either posted, or spiked. If spiked, they simply disappear, which in the case of my posts, are a great loss for all humanity. So Ben is still doing his mod duties, but is too busy/preoccupied to post new content. Which supports my “whirlwind romance” hypothesis.
Which supports my “whirlwind romance” hypothesis.
Works for me.
In the past, Ben typically gives a heads up if he plans on being out for a few days. I didn’t recall seeing him mention that in the past few posts. Did anyone else catch if he did?
Def getting concerned and hope he’s OK.
I’ll take “whirlwind romance” for $400, Alex.
Is New York commercial RE red hot cakes, as some recent sources claim?
Funny how the article about to post only mentions CR8R…
U.S. Commercial Real Estate Crisis Deepens as Office Vacancy Rates Hit Record Highs
Soaring vacancy rates signal mounting pressure on landlords and lenders, reshaping the future of U.S. commercial real estate
August 25, 2025 1:23 PM PDT
Updated August 25, 2025
Image generated by Gemini / Source: Worldwide Steel Buildings
(EZ Newswire)
NEW YORK, NY, August 25, 2025 (EZ Newswire) — The United States office market has reached a grim milestone, with vacancy rates climbing to a new historic high and compounding a deepening crisis for property owners and the lenders who finance them. Persistently high levels of remote work and cautious return-to-office strategies are the primary drivers behind this seismic shift, which is sending severe economic shockwaves through major metropolitan areas. According to recent data from Moody’s Analytics, the national office vacancy rate surged to an unprecedented 20.7% in the second quarter, signaling a structural disruption rather than a temporary downturn for the multi-trillion-dollar
sector. This glut of empty space is forcing a painful reckoning across the industry, threatening property valuations and straining the balance sheets of regional banks heavily exposed to commercial loans.
A Market Awash in Empty Space
The scale of the vacancy problem is vast, touching nearly every major city and suburban market across the country. While the national average paints a stark picture, a closer look at tech-centric hubs reveals an even more severe situation. In San Francisco, a city once defined by its booming tech-fueled real estate market, the office vacancy rate has soared to a staggering 27.7%,
a dramatic increase from its pre-pandemic level of just 8.6% in 2019. Other major business districts are also grappling with an exodus of tenants, with Downtown New York’s vacancy rate nearing 23%, and Charlotte’s reaching 23%, well above the national figure. Even suburban office parks, once seen as a potential beneficiary of decentralization, have seen vacancies climb to record levels. In this challenging environment, a distinct flight to quality has emerged, with a significant share of leasing activity concentrated in premier, modern Class A buildings, as companies prioritize high-quality amenities and prime locations to entice employees back to the office.
…
https://www.reuters.com/press-releases/us-commercial-real-estate-crisis-office-vacancy-record-highs-2025-08-25/
“The United States office market has reached a grim milestone, with vacancy rates climbing to a new historic high and compounding a deepening crisis for property owners and the lenders who finance them.”
Try not to catch yourself a falling knife in the CRE sector while property owners and the lenders who finance them have their asses handed to them.
I hope Charlotte gets Slaughtered!!!! I was born and raised there….now just a city over grown, entitled pricks! I want it to get hit hard…it’s been growing at over 150 people per day for years….Crash and burn!
I just saw this headline:
5,000+ projects cancelled? WTF? What all were we funding?
I’d bet 95+% were a total waste of money, at best!
USAID is holding a fire sale to get rid of all the equipment it planned to use on the 5,000-plus projects Trump canceled
Trumps decisions on usaid really made me a trump fan….and I’m normally not a fan of any politician.
I was naive on usaid….I thought it was running off donations….had no idea I was paying for poor hungry people to have more Fing kids, and they can’t feed the ones they already have. It’s been going on for over 50 years. Give them birth control…..God people are stupid!!!
USAID was using taxpayer dollars to fund globalist agendas and the NGOs pushing them. That was this evil agency’s sole reason for being.
The Yield Curve is inverted from 1 month out to the 10 year. Back when we had free, unrigged markets without constant Fed intervention, this would’ve been a huge red flag.
https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value_month=202508
If drug kingpin Mayo Zambada starts naming names as part of a plea deal, that’ll probably include a who’s who of Mexico’s power elites.
https://www.borderlandbeat.com/2025/08/el-mayo-pleads-guilty-admits-to-bribing.html
Even if he names Claudia and her cronies, they’ll circle the wagons and claim he’s lying.
Let’s see if he names the U.S. banks that laundered his drug money, although I seriously doubt that any DEA agents or prosecutors who value their livelihoods will ever bring up that line of questioning.
BREAKING – A massive fist fight has erupted on the Mexican Senate floor as senators clash over whether the United States should intervene to help combat Mexican cartels. I’m guessing the bad hombres in the $2K sharkskin suits have cartel sponsorship.
https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1961136863009222677
Are home prices finally dropping in your region?
Marketplace
Aug 26, 2025
Some home prices are finally dropping, but it varies heavily by region
Prices are actually falling in some former hotspots in the Sun Belt, while they’re rising in parts of the Rust Belt.
Housing by Nova Safo
“Certain markets that really were favored during the pandemic years, markets like Tampa and Phoenix, are starting to really pull back,” said Nick Godec with S&P Dow Jones Indices.
Joe Raedle/Getty Images
Home prices across the country rose by 1.9% over the year leading up to June, according to the latest reading of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. That is less than the rate of inflation over the same period.
Which means, home prices — while still rising — are not rising as fast as inflation. Which is new.
On the demand side of the housing price equation, the geography is shifting.
“Certain markets that really were favored during the pandemic years, markets like Tampa and Phoenix, are starting to really pull back,” said Nick Godec with S&P Dow Jones Indices, which puts out the Case-Shiller report.
Home prices in Tampa have seen the biggest drop, falling by nearly 2.5% year over year. Meanwhile, prices rose the most in New York City, where they’re up 7%, followed by Chicago at 6%.
“Return-to-office mandates, that could be partly what’s at play with increased interest in more traditional industrial centers,” said Godec.
On the supply side, 66% of homebuilders are discounting to move inventory, according to their national trade association.
“You look at the places where there have been a lot of building, Florida, Texas, the Carolinas, other parts in the south, you know, they’ve done a massive amount of growth in terms of new housing, apartments, a variety of different things, and demand is cooling there,” said Stephen Kates at Bankrate.
Meanwhile homeowners who were waiting for mortgage rates to come down before putting their homes up for sale are starting to accept reality.
Inventory — new homes and existing homes on the market — is up by one third year-to-date, according to Realtor.com.
All of this adds up to some amount of opportunity for buyers, said Nancy Vanden Houten at Oxford Economics.
“There’s a little bit more room for home prices to weaken further,” she said. “Buyers have, you know, a bit more leverage than they’ve had in some time.”
But that’s if you can afford to buy at all. Because home prices are still up by about 30% compared to five years ago.
…
https://www.marketplace.org/story/2025/08/26/home-price-inflation-slows-but-it-depends-on-where-in-the-country-the-home-is
“Home prices across the country rose by 1.9% over the year leading up to June, according to the latest reading of the S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Index. That is less than the rate of inflation over the same period.”
Isn’t the one-year change an irrelevant statistic when prices have been falling month after month for many months running?
More meaningful statistics for an ongoing CR8Ring event, such as the one currently playing out, would be (1) in what month did the market peak and (2) how far have prices already fallen fron the peak?
Why would the WEF team up with International Communist Organizations and the United Nation and WHO in collusion to create what they now call “Global Governance”, that they previously called ” One World Order” . Its also called 2030 UN Sustainable Earth Agenda, 4th Industrial Revolution, “The Great Reset”, etc.
Basically its a power grab using various means to put control of resources and humans in the hands of private party stakeholders and a global Goverance that eliminates all competition to the Stakeholder Capitalists ruling the world.
Governments should partner with the Private Party Globalist Monopolies and Money Changers to implement total control over humans and resources.
UN 2030 Sustainable Earth Agenda, and World Health Organization medical tyranny are false constructs of global emergencies like Climate Change and Panademics , to subject humans to giving up rights based on the pretense of Global Emergencies.
The basic scheme is for these POWERS THAT BE to subject humans to slavery , you will own nothing and eat bugs, taking mandated vaccines. And you will be limited in the resources you can consume. Industry is going to replace you with AI and Robots , and whoever owns this technology will control the World.
Your a carbon emitter and user so you are not entitled to any rights or pursuit of happiness.
In that AI and Robots require more energy and water than humans , it apparent that the zero policy carbons to save the earth was a false narrative .
All it is are a bunch of Powers colluding to eliminate human populations as competition for resources of earth , so the Powers that Be can subject humans to deprived slavery type existences. Some people would say its also a massive depopulation agenda by these Entities.
If you actually implemented their Agendas it would cause massive destruction or deprivation to the inhabitants of earth.
Its already a clown world of fake news and destruction of previous systems for this New World Order by anti human psychopaths.
Humans either cave to the Agendas of the Powers that Be, or NOT.
We are the last bastion against this. If we fall, then it’s over, and there will be nowhere to run.
We have a reprieve during 47. And as we have seen the Dems are still pushing back, especially using the judiciary. We have only just begun to fight.
2028 will be a very important year. If the Dems can seize power again, they will do what they can to make sure that is the last election ever held, to “save democracy”.
Berkshire Hathaway’s Long-Term View: Baby Boomers and Home Price Collapse
Berkshire Hathaway says that home prices will collapse in 10 years due to a massive cell off from the baby boomers. Both Zillow and redfin are also predicting that we are going to end 2025 with Home prices going negative year over a year which is a major departure from their previously bullish predictions on the US housing market claiming that prices would continue to go up no matter what.
…
https://youtu.be/UXpRif6gTbo?si=4CalOdqMgku2wiH8
Boomers are dying off at a rate of 7-8,000 per day, with the numbers rising as the cohort ages out. That’s a lot of shacks that will be hitting the market.
The experts will claim that said shacks will be passed down to the deceaseds’ heirs.
But an empty shack is fundamentally less valuable than an owner-occupied shack that is properly maintained. A flood of former Boomer owned-and-occupied shacks added to vacant housing inventory could exert a lot of downward pressure on prices, whether owned by heirs or Warren Buffett.
“…massive cell off…”
Gotta switch back to caffeinated, PB!
I should have added (sic). If you check the linked source, you’ll see I just copied and pasted the mispelling.
Misspelling (yegads!)
I think I’ve dated her before.
“There’s never been a better time to buy in Las Vegas.” — Every LV UHS.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15043357/dying-las-vegas-tourism-industry-airport-data.html
If you own a dog in the UK and it attacks someone, you will be held liable and can be criminally charged as well as sued. However, the UK’s globalist quisling government can flood the former “green and pleasant isle” with millions of unassimilable “refugees” and “asylum seekers,” and washes its hands of the countless rapes, murders, and robberies they’ve committed.
https://x.com/TheRabbitHole84/status/1961110501179756926/photo/1
🚨 Toronto’s new home market has officially flatlined.
READ CLEARLY WHAT THIS SAYS BELOW 👇🏼
In 1990, there were 4,434 sales from Jan–July.
In 2025? Just 3,007 sales.
This is the worst July on record, even darker than the 1990s crash.
Sales down 82% below the 10-year average.
Industry says the sector is “flashing every possible warning light.”
This isn’t a slowdown. It’s a structural collapse and government lifelines won’t stop the bleeding.
https://x.com/ShaziGoalie/status/1960689680007004390
Does it seem odd that housing market experts keep urging greater fools to buy a house today, even though prices are falling and inventory is rising in many parts of the US? So long as peices are falling, doesn’t it make sense to wait until they bottom out?
I know a number of folks who could have bought in the 2007-2009 period, but instead watched and waited for fire sale prices that were available in the 2010-2012 period. So long as prices are falling, why not exercise patience?
Opinion
Conor Sen, Columnist
Not Even Buffett’s Confidence Buy Can Spur a Housing Recovery
Poor affordability and rising inventory levels still weigh on the industry, despite the Oracle of Omaha’s recent buys.
August 28, 2025 at 2:30 AM PDT
By Conor Sen
Conor Sen is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He is founder of Peachtree Creek Investments.
Work in progress.
Photographer: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images
There’s been renewed optimism about housing in the stock market recently. Mortgage rates have fallen and home improvement giants Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos Inc. reported an uptick in activity in July. More significantly, Warren Buffett gave his blessing to the industry with Berkshire Hathaway Inc. revealing its holdings in homebuilders Lennar Corp. and DR Horton Inc.
Yet the market rally is premature. The two dynamics that have contributed to housing’s slump — poor affordability and rising levels of inventory — haven’t changed in a meaningful way. A more material improvement in the outlook for housing would require a much bigger move in mortgage rates or a slide in prices that’s unlikely to happen any time soon.
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-28/buffett-and-berkshire-hathaway-buys-won-t-spur-housing-recovery
Can the bulls really bullshit their way to a housing market recovery, or will the effort to convince greater fools that a housing market recovery is at hand merely amount to a bag holder identification program before the market’s next leg down?
Real Estate·Housing
New home inventory is at its highest level since just before the housing market collapse that led to the Great Recession, but that doesn’t mean it’s the same market
By Nick Lichtenberg
August 28, 2025 at 5:42 PM EDT
The housing market inventory situation is shifting.
BofA Research
The U.S. housing market’s inventory is growing, putting pressure on prices and slowing new construction, according to fresh research from the Bank of America Institute. As of June, existing-home supply reached 4.7 months, the highest level since July 2016. New-home supply surged even further to 9.8 months—its highest point since 2022—highlighting how quickly inventory is building across the housing market.
…
https://fortune.com/2025/08/28/existing-home-supply-inventory-highest-since-2016-real-estate-housing/
“…that led to the Great Recession, but that doesn’t mean it’s the same market…”
Don’t worry…it’s different this time!
“This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush
“…and home improvement giants Home Depot Inc. and Lowe’s Cos Inc. reported an uptick in activity in July.”
With rising property insurance policies for homeowners, landlords and tenants, rising utility costs, increased mortgage interest costs (despite the recent slight drop), I’m guessing the home improvement stores are experiencing an uptick due to squeezed borrowers getting their albatross cleaned up for the MLS.
With the way things are going… Gotta get your cash into a hard asset to be safe.
Canada’s globalist quisling government & the BoC are presiding over an epic housing bubble bust of their own making. Got popcorn?
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/real-estate/toronto/article-toronto-condo-market-prices-down-buyers-economy-rates/
Zombie foreclosures are a thing now.
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/where-zombie-foreclosures-rising-most-213400021.html
Just read that Colorado plugged its deficit by:
The legislative actions — the last of which Polis signed into law Thursday — fell in line with the plan outlined by state leaders earlier this month: About a third of the $783 million deficit would be addressed with new revenue, another third by midyear spending cuts put in place by Polis and the final third by dipping into the state’s rainy-day fund.
I think they are being optimistic about “new revenue”. They can’t unilaterally raise taxes without voter approval.
I must say that I was surprised there is a rainy day fund. I looked it up and it has $2.3 billion stashed away.
Denver is a failed city, and Colorado is soon to follow as a failed state. Doom Loop gonna doom.
In Southern Colorado now, when can we become part of Texas again?
you have to leave Colorado Springs and Pueblo out of it.
and Colorado is soon to follow as a failed state.
I expect that rainy day fund will soon be depleted now that the state no longer is getting swamp bucks. Gotta take care of those illegals.
Are the housing bulls in a state of denial about the slow motion crash that has begun playing out in the US?
At what point will denial give way to fear and panic? I remember it took a couple of years for the wheels to fall off the burning bus in the 2007-2012 housing market meltdown.
Housing Wealth in America is Slipping. It’s Part of a Larger Trend
By Terry Lane
Published August 28, 2025
12:03 PM EDT
Home prices rose less than inflation in July, with some areas reporting falling prices. © Big Stock Photo
Key Takeaways
– A nationwide index of housing prices showed that home values grew at a rate slower than inflation in June, which might indicate a cooling market.
– Housing prices are diverging by location, with prices in the Northeast and Midwest climbing, while prices in the South and West fell.
– Housing inventory levels are up, which is keeping prices down in some locations.
Fresh data about U.S. home values is the latest sign that the market is dimming for sellers.
The problem: The growth rate of home prices isn’t keeping up with inflation, which might indicate a cooling market. In some areas prices are actually falling. At the same time, housing inventory is climbing, giving buyers more options to choose from than they’ve had in a while.
Nationwide home prices in June were up 1.9% year over year, according to the most recent S&P Cotality Case-Shiller home price index. That’s the slowest growth rate since the summer of 2023.1 Prices grew much more slowly than the 2.7% rate of inflation recorded in that same period, effectively putting the brakes on the pandemic-era housing boom.
“For the first time in years, home prices are failing to keep pace with broader inflation,” said Nicholas Godec, head of fixed-income tradables and commodities at S&P Dow Jones Indices. “American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”
…
https://www.investopedia.com/american-housing-wealth-is-slipping-11798849
“American housing wealth has actually declined in inflation-adjusted terms over the past year—a notable erosion that reflects the market’s new equilibrium.”
Just wait until nominal prices are dropping, which is already happening month-on-month in many US markets. That’s the when we might expect the SHTF moment to happen.
Massive Property Tax Fraud Exposed – $5.1 Trillion Bond Scam Will Crash System
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TdYHbhT6524&t=1698s
Woman loses home to AI scammer using likeness of daytime soap star. We can’t rule out the possibility that Ben has fallen hard for an AI “girl” who reached out to him and is too infatuated to post new content.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-15044637/california-woman-loses-home-ai-scam-general-hospital-steve-burton.html
Another garbage legacy newspaper goes belly up.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/yourmoney/article-15044503/end-era-print-atlanta-journal-constitution.html
Just the dead tree version. Still, it’s a start.
#Nuremberg 2.0 can’t come soon enough. The feckless military brass who inflicted the clot shots on 2.1 million military personnel need to be first in the dock.
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/08/clock-ticks-down-army-black-hawk-pilots-two/
100% safe and effective.
Remember when 30% of polled Democrats supported taking people’s kids away for not getting injected with their death shot?
Remember? You’ve just been reminded. Nearly one third of Democrat Party supported that.
Democrat Party.
The Useless Eaters who can no longer generate wealth for the oligarchy will need to have their medical care rationed so they won’t be too much of a drain on the system.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/28/health/medicare-prior-approval-health-care.html?unlocked_article_code=1.hk8.L_ZA.095JZYck6sPh&smid=url-share
Another plausible explanation emerges for Ben’s extended absence.
https://nypost.com/2025/08/28/us-news/bryant-park-yogis-shake-off-bad-juju-from-mercury-retrograde/
Gateway Pundit:
“The shooter was later identified as 23-year-old transgender Robert “Robin” Westman. Westman is deceased.
According to court documents obtained by Fox News, Mary Grace Westman ‘transitioned’ her son and changed his name from Robert to Robin when he was 17.
Via Fox News: According to court docs, at 17-years-old Robert Westman formally had his legal name changed to Robin because docs state the “minor child identifies as female and wants her name to reflect the identification.” The application for a name change of a minor was filed by the mother and a court granted the request in 2020.”
Surprise, surprise, it’s the mother who did this.
I bet she got a lot of “likes” on social media. Maybe even achieved “influencer” status.
You live in a dying civilization.
Real Journalists:
“In one of the most disgraceful displays of fake news you’ll ever see, the New York Times did literal backflips to shield a violent, mentally unstable man, who’s been parading around as a “woman,” from any real accountability.
Robert Westman scrawled “Kill Trump” and “Where is your God now?” on his gun, left behind a disturbing manifesto dripping with hatred for Christians and traditional values, and murdered two young children in cold blood… but somehow, even after all that, the Times claims his motive is a “mystery.”
https://revolver.news/2025/08/new-york-times-hard-to-fathom-why-mn-trans-shooter-murdered-christian-kids/
scrawled “Kill Trump”
I was told that CNN said merely “He wrote Trump on the gun.”
They were no doubt trying to construct a narrative that the right was responsible for this. Then the true identity came out and the narrative collapsed.
As soon as I heard that the gunman fired upon a church full of children, I knew it was a mentally ill leftist, especially since it was in Minneapolis,
The story has already been sent to the memory hole.
Had the shooter been somehow vaguely linked to the right, it would be nonstop front page news.
No matter how much you think you hate the globalist scum media, it isn’t nearly enough.
https://nypost.com/2025/08/29/media/npr-host-issues-clarification-after-senator-refers-to-minnesota-transgender-shooter-as-he/
+1
Hey Luigi, now do the New York Times.
“It’s a dry heat, Robert.” — Senator Dianne Feinstein
Soaring gold prices are a vote of No Confidence in the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed & their debasement of the currency.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1961436144643514374
Cryptos a sea of red – LMAO!
https://www.cnbc.com/cryptocurrency/
in Colorado
The Gazette also claimed that the influx of illegals has cost the taxpayers of the city of Denver at least $100 million.
:https://www.breitbart.com/immigration/2025/08/27/unsustainable-colorado-gained-43000-illegal-aliens-in-just-2-years/
The Gazette is garbage legacy media. That means the actual social and financial costs of absorbing all those Democrat-on-Arrival illegals are orders of magnitude greater than what the globalist scum media will ever acknowledge.
Illegals over citizens is one of the hills the city of Denver is choosing to die on. And they will get away with it as Denver is one of the bluest cities you will find anywhere,
It isn’t just Denver. All globalist quisling parties in all the so-called “Western Democracies” are prioritizing 3rd World “refugees” and migrants over the native, Heritage population, whose demographic replacement they are working tirelessly to bring about.
https://x.com/Basil_TGMD/status/1961425406218719715
It’s definitely worse in Europe. There is a story in the news about a Scottish teen girl who defended her sister from a vibrant who was accosting her. She brandished a knife and a hatchet, and did not strike at the vibrant, but scared him off.
Guess who got arrested?
79% in 2024, and those were actual votes, not pre-printed ballots trucked in the middle of the night.
#FAIL
Globalists gonna globe.
New Zealand Considers Relaxing Home-Buying Ban for Rich Foreigners
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-29/new-zealand-weighs-relaxing-home-buying-ban-for-rich-foreigners
My first thought was why would you want to buy a house in a dystopia like kiwiland? But many of these would be wealthy foreign buyers are from places that are even worse.
Legacy of the Joe Biden economy.
New York Times — Waiting for Mortgage Rates to Fall Before You Buy? Don’t Bother (8/28/2025):
“According to a recent Zillow analysis, a median-income family would either need home values to fall by a whopping 18 percent (from about $369,000 to $304,000), or mortgage rates to fall from June’s rate of 6.74 percent to 4.43 percent in order to afford a typical U.S. home. (The analysis assumes a 20 percent down payment on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, and defines an “affordable” purchase as requiring no more than 30 percent of household income.)
“There’s no realistic path for that to happen,” said Kara Ng, a senior economist at Zillow, without a serious disruption to the economy, like a slowdown in economic and income growth, or a rise in unemployment.
According to Ms. Ng, the typical mortgage payment in the U.S. is nearly $1,000 more per month than it was before the pandemic. “Are you getting paid $1,000 more?” she asked. “If not, that means it’s getting more unaffordable for you to buy a home.”
https://archive.ph/VtIrg
The “pandemic” did you say?
The one that, for the young and healthy, has an infection fatality rate of zero? The one that the vaccines killed more people than the alleged virus did? That one?
Big Government money printing has consequences.
Big Government money printing has consequences.
It does, and those who at the time were pointing out what would happen later were shouted down. People loved their stimmy checks and expanded unemployment bennies which sometimes exceeded their old paychecks. And they went out and bought cars they couldn’t afford because they thought the for all practical purposes UBI would continue indefinitely. Then it ended and the repos began. Then came the monster inflation, and here we are now.
Did Ben decide to allow a glut of August 22 posts to rival the ever-rising flood of houses in the market?
This thread may be a week old, but Realtors are still liars.
There is an open house in my ‘hood today. If I didn’t have other plans, I would feel morally obligated to warn any and all prospective marks that realtors are liars.
Some things never change.
Do you find it upsetting that current California home buying is well below 2008 crash levels?
California homebuying drops 7% below 2008 crash levels
Jonathan Lansner
UPDATED:
August 27, 2025 at 3:52 PM PDT
…
https://www.ocregister.com/2025/08/27/california-homebuying-runs-7-below-2008-crash-levels/amp/
The median sales price of new houses sold in July was $403,800, a decrease of $3,400 from June. A year earlier, the median sales price was $429,000 https://bit.ly/4fYNblk
https://x.com/stlouisfed/status/1961836392616448315
Meanwhile, the $USD has shed 10.8% of its value in just the first six months of 2025, meaning the real loss of value is even greater. So much for building muh generational wealth.
Clutch those pearls harder, vaxxtards.
Updated COVID vaccines unavailable in parts of US as CDC delays approval (8/30/2025):
“The CDC’s Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices has not yet met this year to consider reapproving distribution of updated COVID-19 vaccines ahead of the anticipated winter season. Some states do not allow pharmacists to administer the vaccine without the panel’s approval, which is expected in the next couple of months.
Federal health officials have issued mixed signals about the future of the vaccine. Some appointees under Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. argue it is unnecessary for most people because of widespread immunity, while also questioning its safety and effectiveness.
Most medical experts say the vaccine is both safe and highly effective at preventing severe illness.”
https://www.denver7.com/health/updated-covid-vaccines-unavailable-in-parts-of-us-as-cdc-delays-approval
“Medical experts” = whores for Big Pharma, you maimed and murdered millions and got paid for it ☠️
the vaccine is both safe and highly effective at preventing severe illness
Not a Vaccine. Not safe. Not effective. High lie density.
How many days have to pass before Ben’s picture can appear on milk cartons?
US homes are shrinking:
The average size of a new home has dropped to 2,404 square feet, the lowest in 20 years.
Over the last decade, the size of new homes has declined ~320 square feet, or 12%.
Over the same period, the median new home price has risen ~$111,800, or 38%, to $403,800.
This means the median price per square foot has jumped by $61, or 57%, to near a record $168.
High inflation and soaring costs mean buyers can no longer afford larger homes.
The US housing affordability crisis is worsening.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1961836059861430413
US cost of living is getting worse:
7-year car loans made up 21.6% of all new-vehicle financing in Q2 2025, an all-time high.
This share has DOUBLED over the last 8 years.
Over the same period, the share of 5-year loans has declined ~3.5 percentage points, to 18.5%.
6-year car loans have remained steady at ~36.0%.
7-year loans are often the only way buyers can afford to purchase a vehicle as average sale prices have surged +28% over the last 5 years to ~$50,000.
Longer loans slow down ownership, meaning when borrowers finally trade in, many end up owing more than their car is worth.
Consumers are taking on increasingly risky debt.
https://x.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1961820456983703993
If U.S. debt donkeys have to take out 7-year loans to buy cars, how will they be able to afford ridiculously overpriced shacks?
“7-year loans are often the only way buyers can afford to purchase a vehicle as average sale prices have surged +28% over the last 5 years to ~$50,000.”
Sounds like debtbeats have the upper hand in the vehicle purchase market for now.
“Longer loans slow down ownership, meaning when borrowers finally trade in, many end up owing more than their car is worth.”
It would suck to trade in a car with an underwater loan.
Remember when capital flight only happened to 3rd World countries that were circling the drain?
Canada’s Capital Flight Crisis: Record Exit By Foreign & Domestic Investors
https://betterdwelling.com/canadas-capital-flight-crisis-record-exit-by-foreign-domestic-investors/
Canada is bleeding capital at the fastest rate since the Financial Crisis. Statistics Canada’s (Stat Can) latest data shows foreign investors pulled billions from the country in Q2, with domestic investors joining the exodus. This goes beyond tariffs—the sheer scale and pace of outflows point to deeper structural cracks and fading confidence in the country’s future.
Heckova job, Liberal Party! “Fading confidence in the country’s future” is an understatement when your country goes from 1st World to 3rd World in less than a generation thanks to open borders.
Did you marry a house and date the rate, only to find yourself yearning for a divorce?
Realtor.com
The ‘Marry the House, Date the Rate’ Strategy Is Backfiring on 2025 Homebuyers
Yaёl Bizouati-Kennedy
Thu, August 28, 2025 at 11:26 AM PDT
6 min read
The “marry the house, date the rate” approach gained momentum in recent years, as homebuyers hoped landing a house they loved, while worrying about securing a lower mortgage rate later via refinancing, would pan out.
But the days of the 3% 30-year average mortgage rate are long gone. As of Aug. 21, the average 30-year mortgage rate stands at 6.58%, according to Freddie Mac. While this represents a slight decrease and “its lowest level since October 2024,” according to Realtor.com® Senior Economist Jake Krimmel, the figure is more than double what it was on Aug. 26, 2021: 2.87%.
As such, a new Neighbors Bank analysis finds that refinancing won’t pay off for most unless mortgage rates drop by at least 0.75 percentage points. And depending on which state you live in, the savings can widely vary.
The report, “If Mortgage Rates Fall Tomorrow, Who Wins?” shows more minor drops of 0.25% to 0.5% “often fail to deliver short-term savings, with the typical borrower still underwater on closing costs after three years.”
These new findings go against the belief that any decrease in rate, no matter how small, translates into a good time to refinance. With the anticipated fall rate cut from the Federal Reserve, owners looking to “break up” with their rate should carefully weigh their options before jumping ship.
“How we frame it for clients: Marry the life you want and date the math. If the home advances your life goals, make the numbers work today and treat any future refi as upside,” advises Tami Pardee, founder and CEO of Pardee Properties, a California-based real estate brokerage.
Different mortgages mean different savings
The good news is the report found that every state eventually breaks even within five years. However, the amount of savings varies significantly among states.
“For example, New Hampshire borrowers, who have an average borrowing amount of $430,247, see nearly $3,000 more in five-year savings after refinancing at a 0.5-point rate drop than homeowners in Louisiana, who have an average loan amount of $252,075,” according to the report.
Bobbi Rebell, CFP, personal finance expert at CardRates.com, says that many real estate agents love to tell prospective buyers that they should “marry the house and date the rate” to land the sale, but that homeowners need to understand the risk they’re taking.
“The math on that doesn’t always work because rates don’t always move as much as needed in a meaningful timeline,” she says, adding that, in general, most homeowners will only benefit from a rate drop of close to a full percent when the costs of refinancing are factored.
She adds, however, that doesn’t mean homeowners should stay on the sidelines—they just should not put together a budget on the assumption that rates will definitely drop.
“In other words, if rates are too high for what you can afford right now, consider adjusting your search criteria rather than waiting for something that may or may not happen,” she says.
…
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/articles/marry-house-date-rate-strategy-182639830.html
Bobbi Rebell, CFP, personal finance expert at CardRates.com, says that many real estate agents love to tell prospective buyers that they should “marry the house and date the rate” to land the sale, but that homeowners need to understand the risk they’re taking.
Three things:
1. Realtors are liars
2. Realtors are liars
3. In the current inflationary environment, rates are almost certainly going to trend up, in addition to property taxes and insurance costs. Meaning shack prices will have to crash hard given the added costs & risks.
‘With the anticipated fall rate cut from the Federal Reserve, owners looking to “break up” with their rate should carefully weigh their options before jumping ship.’
Are rate daters aware that a Fed rate cut this fall could lead to higher mortgage rates? Check out exhibit A: A steepening Treasury yield curve.
US yield curve steepening puts Dollar on shaky ground
The Bear steepener, the Dollar, and the Fed’s path. Eurozone fractures. Yield differential helps the Loonie. BoE pivot risks GBP reversal.
August 28, 2025
Kevin Ford, FX and Macro Strategist, Antonio Ruggiero, Senior FX Strategist
Written by the Market Insights Team
The bear steepener, the Dollar, and the Fed’s path
Kevin Ford
Considering its year-over-year (YoY) performance, the U.S. Treasury yield curve has been in a bear steepener, a market phase where both short- and long-term interest rates are rising, but long-term yields are increasing at a faster rate. This has caused the 30-year minus 2-year spread to widen to +122 basis points, a level not seen in roughly three years. This marks a sharp reversal from the deep inversion that characterized the market in 2022 and 2023, signaling a fundamental shift in market sentiment from recessionary fears to expectations of economic growth and persistent inflation.
The “bear” aspect signifies a negative development for bond prices, as investors demand a higher “term premium” to hold long-duration assets. Recently, this has been driven by expectations of sticky inflation, expectations of nominal growth fueled by public spending, higher term premium, the “AI Boom,” and a significant increase in Treasury supply. The current market signals align with historical parallels, such as in 1994–95 or 2021, when long-duration bonds underperformed while cyclical sectors like financials and value stocks thrived.
The movement of the yield curve is particularly critical given the U.S. dollar’s recent performance, which has already lost 9% of its value year-to-date. The ongoing bear steepener, which points to expectations of robust long-term growth and inflation, can be seen as a continuation of this trend. When the economy is perceived as strong, investors often move away from safe-haven assets like the dollar and into riskier, higher-yielding assets abroad. The bear steepener, with its higher long-term yields, also makes long-duration U.S. assets less appealing, which can further fuel a bearish sentiment toward the USD.
…
https://convera.com/blog/currency-news/us-yield-curve-steepening-puts-dollar-on-shaky-ground/
Fed cuts rates on the short end, inflation worsens, 30 year yield rises.
Thats what bond market is telling you.
https://x.com/StealthQE4/status/1961888254438908384
To all HBB Labor Day travelers: as you transit the airports, please scrutinize any Hare Krishnas or Moonies you may encounter to see if Ben has joined their ranks.
What is Dr. Copper trying to tell us?
Yahoo Finance
Benzinga
This Classic Economic Gauge Just Flashed A Crisis-Stage Signal
Piero Cingari
Fri, August 29, 2025 at 7:31 PM PDT 5 min read to
A classic economic indicator just nosedived to levels not seen since the depths of the 2020 pandemic, flashing bright-red signals about global growth fears.
The copper-to-gold ratio — a widely watched gauge of global economic sentiment — has plunged to 0.0015, its lowest reading since March 2020. This sharp decline suggests investors are losing confidence in the strength of the economic recovery.
Invest in Gold
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/classic-economic-gauge-just-flashed-023112566.html
How’s that “elbows up!” working out for ya, K-dans?
https://financialpost.com/news/economy/canada-economy-shrinks-exports-us-plummet
BREAKING – Democrats are beginning to experience some major FAFO for making posts celebrating President Trump’s death, with one already fired from their job.
Not only is Trump alive, but now you have no job.
https://x.com/Rightanglenews/status/1961949745712140339
Farmers who binged on credit to buy up overpriced farmland are going to be hating life.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/ar-AA1LyMuc
Are you feeling squeezed? Join the rest of America’s middle class!
The Wall Street Journal
The Middle-Class Vibe Has Shifted From Secure to Squeezed
After months of tracking high-income earners’ positive economic outlook, America’s middle-income households appear to be losing confidence
Daisy Korpics/WSJ, Pixelsquid (2), iStock
By Katherine Hamilton
and Alison Sider
Aug. 31, 2025 5:30 am ET
For the American middle class, it has been a summer of cooling confidence.
Consumer sentiment dropped nearly 6% in August, after trending up in June and July, according to a closely watched index from the University of Michigan. Pessimism about the job market increased, with more people surveyed saying they expect their income to decline, according to polling done by think tank the Conference Board.
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Sorry to leave you all with such a cluttered post…but the main point is there: America’s Middle Class is squeezed by debt and inflation.
I hope Ben is alright, and I am grateful for his steadfast efforts to keep this blog running since 2004.
For the rest of you, I’ve enjoyed engaging in this fractured and sometimes fraught conversation. I wish you all the best in the ongoing challenges of maintaining personal equilibrium in a troubled world.
I hope Ben is alright
I can understand that he might be really busy with the part of his life that pays the bills, but am a little surprised he hasn’t dropped in and left a note saying he’s OK and will be back soon.
I wish you all the best in the ongoing challenges of maintaining personal equilibrium in a troubled world.
In the unlikely case that this board goes dark and never returns, I share similar sentiments.
my edumaketed guess he in the hospital and can only approve or spike the comments. you are very very missed.
+1
Comments are closed on all previous posts.
Are Chinese young people with no future under the corrupt, tyrannical CCP regime starting to push back?
Massive Projection at Chongqing University Urges CCP Overthrow, ‘Xi Jinping Resign’ in Zhongnanhai
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CwPS80w8Rvo&t=65s
Hopefully those students aren’t setting themselves up for a repeat of the Tiananmen Square incident.
https://www.britannica.com/event/Tiananmen-Square-incident
“Safe and effective.”
https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/08/first-population-wide-peer-reviewed-study-finds-covid/
Just because today is a holiday doesn’t mean that Realtors have stopped lying.
Realtors are liars.