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Sitting Unsold For Longer

A report from the Seattle Times in Washington. “A month after the Seattle area was dethroned as the hottest housing market in the country, the local housing market is cooling again — but the outer reaches of the metro area remain competitive. Single-family home prices across the region that includes King, Snohomish and Pierce counties were unchanged in July from a month prior, according to the Case-Shiller home price index. It’s the first time prices didn’t grow in the month of July since 2009, when the housing bust was in full swing.”

“Home sales are dropping faster in Seattle than anywhere else in the country, according to Redfin. The brokerage also said Seattle had the nation’s second-biggest increase in the number of homes for sale — not because new houses are coming onto the market, but because they are sitting unsold for longer.”

“The most recent data shows the number of homes on the market is up 66 percent in the last year in King County, 27 percent in Snohomish County, and 7 percent in Pierce County. The median house costs $669,000 in King County, $492,000 in Snohomish County and $352,000 in Pierce County. All are down from the record highs set in the spring.”

From KJZZ in Arizona. “In Phoenix, home prices are leveling out, and that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Year over year, Phoenix home prices are still rising. But month over month, prices showed very little change from July to August.”

“‘You know it’s been an inventory shortage over the last year and nationally that has been the case as well, but again, it is not alarming … It’s a pretty balanced market. It’s still leaning a little bit more towards a seller’s market than a complete buyer’s market,’ said Nate Martinez, a real estate agent with REMAX in Phoenix. ‘Back 13 years ago, we [saw] a lot of investors buying homes with really little money down, buying on speculation. And that’s not happening today.'”

“Martinez said the Valley has seen these signs in the real estate market before pre-housing crash, and the difference is that in 2005, California investors pulled money out of homes there to purchase homes in Arizona. He is not seeing that kind of activity today. While there’s a lot of conversation about whether the real estate market is poised to crash again, the essential triggers are just not there.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Dallas home value gains were the smallest in almost six years in the latest nationwide price comparison. Dallas-area home prices growth has been declining in the Case-Shiller index for more than a year. Nationwide home price increases are also cooling.”

“‘The slowing is widespread: 15 of 20 cities saw smaller monthly increases in July 2018 than in July 2017,’ S&P’s David Blitzer said in the report. ‘Sales of existing single family homes have dropped each month for the last six months and are now at the level of July 2016.'”

“‘A slight autumn chill has fallen over the housing market, and after an incredibly hot past few years, it’s probably fair to say the cool down is a welcome development for many would-be home buyers,’ Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said. ‘Winter in the housing market is certainly not here yet, but it’s increasingly clear that the end of the hot season is rapidly approaching.'”

From Chicago Agent Magazine in Illinois. “The metropolitan Chicago housing market is split into two different types of markets during the month of August, according to RE/MAX Northern Illinois Region. ‘Demand for entry-level and moderately priced homes is strong and sales being inhibited primarily by a lack of inventory,’ said Jeff LaGrange, vice president of the RE/MAX Northern Illinois Region.”

“On the other hand, LaGrange said for more expensive housing, there is enough inventory that many homes are being overlooked. ‘In the upper brackets, there is ample inventory and many homes struggle to find buyers,’ he said.”

This Post Has 19 Comments
  1. ‘The median house costs $669,000 in King County, $492,000 in Snohomish County and $352,000 in Pierce County. All are down from the record highs set in the spring’

    Eeee-bola to the new counties!

    BTW I check the newspapers out in these parts and they are might quiet.

  2. ‘Martinez said the Valley has seen these signs in the real estate market before pre-housing crash, and the difference is that in 2005, California investors pulled money out of homes there to purchase homes in Arizona. He is not seeing that kind of activity today’

    You know Nate I was at those auctions in Phoenix back in 2010 and later. These weren’t locals buying. Many were – Gasp – Canadians pulling money out of their shacks!

    1. Martinez is ignoring the principle of Grow or Die. If it isn’t growing it will go into reverse.

      Now my name and email are not being remembered, and the “Remember me” checkbox isn’t showing.

        1. No. Google Chrome on my laptop, same as before. My first comment this morning it worked and on the second comment it didn’t. I still don’t see the Remember Me box.

  3. “‘A slight autumn chill has fallen over the housing market, and after an incredibly hot past few years, it’s probably fair to say the cool down is a welcome development for many would-be home buyers,’ Zillow senior economist Aaron Terrazas said”

    A welcome development for buyers will be
    1. Housing bubble 2.0 crash
    2. Housing prices will be afforable based on income, not interest rate or trillions in printed money

    1. Seriously. Lower home prices are GOOD for the consumer/families. By paying less for a house I can invest more, save for kids college, etc.

  4. Problem with Case Shiller and other similar types is that it is a”rear view mirror” look. Closed sales are representative of contract agreement that can be 2 to 3 months old. Also since monthly data may be viewed after the months is completed, you can throw an additional possible month of delay. Pending sales data would be much better. This also explains the disconnect seen between reduced permits but increased housing starts. Permit data is current or fowarding looking and starts may indicate contracts that were signed a month or two previous. The starts vs permits data is quite ominous and may explain the recent drops in home builder stock prices. Smart money is talking. Things appear to be changing quickly.

  5. Silly Seattle. Here in Portland I’ve been monitoring the 750K-1M range. Some houses are still selling but only in primo locations and in primo shape.

    Outside of that the drops are already at 20+%. I’m calling the top for that market range in Portland to be April-May of this year.

    1. It’ll only take 3 to 5 years to get to the bottom. I’m moving into federal money market funds, which now pay over 2% with no risk.

  6. “While there’s a lot of conversation about whether the real estate market is poised to crash again, the essential triggers are just not there.”

    Stop lying, realtor scum. The biggest trigger of all is that millions of FBs bought homes they couldn’t afford in the belief that housing would keep going up. Now that the bubble has not only peaked, but is bursting, underwater FBs are starting to panic and head for the exits. That’s all the trigger that’s needed: greed and FOMO turns to fear, uncertainty, and doubt (FUD). And that’s happening in spades despite the realtor happy talk.

  7. Gilbert AZ holding at 9.6% inventory increase in the last 10 days. 8 new listings today replaced 8 removed/sold in the last 3 days.

  8. Great observation about reductions vs price range. Right on target in my woods as well. Here, there is no single market but many with Gulf of Mexico properties at the top and then stratifies lower from there all the way to low end. Each has different dynamic and activity.

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