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Those Pesky Emotions Like Denial The Market Has Peaked Or Plain Old Greed

A report from the Denver Post in Colorado. “For at least five years, until last summer, home sellers had a firm upper hand in metro Denver, but the power dynamic is shifting. One sign of that — more sellers are having to accept offers below their original price. ‘If you aren’t getting offers in the first two weeks, time to make a price adjustment,’ said Jill Schafer, chairwoman of the market trends committee at the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.”

“The seller advantage has deteriorated rapidly. Zillow reports that only 23 percent of homes sold in metro Denver in November went for above the list price and by December, only 20 percent did so. That’s happening nationally as well, but not to the degree seen in once-hot markets like Denver.”

“List prices are usually based on the prior six months of sales or comparables. When the market is softening, sellers can find themselves with outdated information. And there are those pesky emotions: like the denial that the market has peaked, or the pride of wanting to make more than the neighbor who sold last spring, or plain old greed.”

“‘What a seller wants is the highest dollar at the end of the day. If you went in there with a realistic idea of where that property will trade, you might lose a listing,’ said Jason Shepherd, a managing broker with Atlas Real Estate Group in Denver.”

“Whether from online valuation services or sycophantic agents, sellers want information that confirms the bias they already have toward going with a higher price. ‘Be aware that there are people who will promise you the world,’ Shepherd said. ‘We try to be very cognizant of not overpromising and underdelivering.'”

The Walton Sun in Florida. “Florida’s housing market reported higher median prices and increased inventory (active listings) in December compared to a year ago, according to Florida Realtors. Sales of single-family homes statewide totaled 20,633 last month, down 9.9 percent compared to December 2017.”

“‘Statewide, active listings of existing single-family homes have been on the rise since July, which has helped contribute to the softening of price growth, and they continued to climb in December,’ said Florida Realtors Chief Economist Dr. Brad O’Connor. ‘At year’s end, inventory was up over 13 percent compared to the end of 2017. Importantly, inventory levels are now rising across most of the pricing spectrum, including in some of the more affordable ranges.'”

The Record Courier on Ohio. “‘The market always has highs and lows; it’s always a roller coaster ride,’ said Cindy Le-Mon, a RE/MAX agent active in and around Portage County. ‘I kind of felt like we would have made an adjustment before now. I’m really surprised by the long run we’ve had with a really good market.'”

“Cindy Mustafa, who leads the Mustafa team with Keller Willams Chervenic Realty, said the overall market felt like it hit a high-water mark both locally and nationally in 2018. ‘2018 was a peak year,’ she said. ‘Everyone is looking at a softening of the market.'”

“Mustafa said some of the houses she sold spent virtually no time on the market. Things seem to be changing now, though. ‘Now, starting in November and December, I’ve noticed there are price drops; there are more open houses,’ she said, meaning more houses are staying on the market a bit longer.”

From Seattle PI in Washington. “Seattle condo sellers and buyers started off 2019 with gusto as sales activity outpaced January 2018 levels. The one blip, unless you’re a buyer, was the dip in the Seattle citywide condo median sales price to $470,000, reflecting a 1.16% year-over-year and 6.0% one-month decrease, respectively.”

“Anecdotally, one trend was the movement of condos that had been sitting on the market well over 100 days (nearly half of the pendings) finally found new owners, at lower prices. That’s good, since new Seattle condo listings increased 221.6% over last January to 431 units.”

From Fox Business. “Rising home prices in California are weakening housing demand in the state, recent data shows, which could spell more trouble for residents already in the midst of an affordability crisis. While demand for home mortgage applications in California grew during the early months of 2018, beginning in May there was a pullback through the end of the year – with the sharpest declines occurring during the final two months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.”

“Applications for home purchase loans fell nearly 20 percent in November and December. According to a recent poll conducted by Quinnipiac University, 43 percent of residents said they can’t afford to live in California – a trend that was even more pronounced among younger inhabitants (61 percent).”

“The problem is specifically prominent in some regions – like the Bay Area – where it would take a family earning median income 22 years to save up for a 20 percent down payment (the median home price in Silicon Valley is $1.2 million).”

“California wasn’t the only large state that saw a precipitous drop in home purchase applications – Florida and Texas also experienced similar – though less pronounced – trends. However, the news isn’t all bad for California homebuyers. Home prices appear to be moderating in the state – a sign inventory could be increasing.”

From Crain’s Chicago Business in Illinois. “The two-flat in Park Manor where Al Capone, his wife, his mother and his sister lived in the 1920s, which the most recent owner lost in foreclosure in 2018, is coming on the market Feb. 9. The asking price is $109,900, said Ryan Smith, the agent representing the two-flat, which stands on the equivalent of 2.8 standard Chicago 25-by-125-foot lots in a neighborhood of mostly bungalows and two-flats.”

“Smith declined to identify the seller, but Cook County property records show that MTGLQ Investors, a distressed-property subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, received the title to the property in a court-ordered sale in November. The homeowner who lost the property in that judicial sale, the end result of a foreclosure action that a lender began in 2013, had the property on the market at various times between 2009 and 2016. Her price started at $450,000 and dropped to $179,900.”

Related Posts

Realtors, Stay In Your Lane

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pFmEheQYRnU https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7p-r0TUVR9s https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUzFSSBIYsM https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X_NqbGSQwH8

This Post Has 132 Comments

  1. ‘If you aren’t getting offers in the first two weeks, time to make a price adjustment’

    But Jill, that leaves 5 months and 3 weeks of a sellers market? Are you saying that 6 month thing you throw out year after year is meaningless?

    Sacre bleu!

  2. ‘The homeowner who lost the property in that judicial sale, the end result of a foreclosure action that a lender began in 2013, had the property on the market at various times between 2009 and 2016. Her price started at $450,000 and dropped to $179,900’

    Six years to foreclose. And the FB was still listing it in 2016.

    1. I always get a laugh at these “Where Al Capone lived” places. Apparently the guy had hundreds of these hideaway flats, plus places in Wisconsin, Indiana and Florida, plus warehouses, retail stores and hotels. My guess is some FB wanted to turn it into a fun story that comes with the flat but failed to realize a crime overlord like Capone basically owned half the city.

      1. “I always get a laugh at these ‘Where Al Capone lived’ places. Apparently the guy had hundreds of these hideaway flats, plus places in Wisconsin, Indiana and Florida, plus warehouses, retail stores and hotels.”

        Don’t leave out his vault …

        The Mystery of Al Capone’s Vaults – Wikipedia
        https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Mystery_of_Al_Capone's_Vaults

        This fiasco turned out to be a two hour joke. Lots of viewers but no vault.

        (Psssst … if you really want to learn where Al Capone’s vault is located I have in my possession a map with an “X” that marks the spot. Contact me at the bank and perhaps we can work out a deal. Be sure to bring lots, and I mean LOTS of cash, and don’t worry about bringing too much cash because you are guaranteed – GUARANTEED – to get it all back, plus lots more, once the vault is opened.)

        Oh, and don’t tell Giraldo.

      1. Ten bucks says she was one of those “I’m not going to give it away!” greedheads with a galactic sense of entitlement and devoid of reason or logic who ended up chasing the market down.

  3. ‘I kind of felt like we would have made an adjustment before now. I’m really surprised by the long run we’ve had with a really good market.’”

    Cindy would probably blink like a toad in a hailstorm if informed that the sole reason for the aforementioned “long run we’ve had” is the trillions of FedBux lavished on speculators since 2009.

  4. “Smith declined to identify the seller, but Cook County property records show that MTGLQ Investors, a distressed-property subsidiary of Goldman Sachs, received the title to the property in a court-ordered sale in November. “

    The irony is priceless: Al Capone’s childhood home being bought up at distress sale pricing by racketeers flush with Yellen Bux who make the mafia look like pikers.

  6. “Israel fights boycott movement as pro-Palestinian campaign gains global support. The campaign is also reverberating in the U.S., where the Senate passed a bill Tuesday that would allow states to punish businesses that take part in Israel boycotts.”

    Our coin-operated Senators know who butters their bread.

    1. These AIPAC stooges and neocon puppets of Israel’s Likud Party should be required, at a minimum, to register as agents of a foreign power.

    1. Have their been any such stories? Near as I can tell, the six-figs aren’t the ones showing up at food banks. It’s the $50K contractors who won’t get the back pay.

      1. stories

        NPR was loading them up. If it was contractors they had on the tear jerkers they conveniently omitted the fact.

        “Ohhhhh the pain. I can’t even get my son a birthday present!” said the prison guard IIRC.

        1. I thought the stories were more about folks who live paycheck to paycheck? There appear to be many six figure earners who adopt that lifestyle.

          1. It’s not that hard. If you live in an area where there are six figure jobs, all the rents and mortgages are there to take it all. All other costs are inflated due to the real estate costs. Taxes are high as well.

            I think I do pretty good but get crushed by taxes. Make more money than I ever thought I would but it goes easy. If I had a pre-bubble mortgage it would be easy street.

          1. Shutdown costs taxpayers

            So we were told by the voices of authority. Odd that there was no explanation of how this works.

      2. If you earn $50K a year and don’t have enough saved up to tide you over for a rainy day, you’re guilty of poor planning and serious financial mismanagement. I bet if you look on these crybabies’ FB or Instagram pages you’ll see that they’re driving $40K SUVs or pickups and bragging about the expensive vacations they take each year.

        2. $50k – depends on where you live and if you have health issues or take care of parents or….. lots of unknowns…

        3. To be fair the people that buy the vehicles are the one driving the economy. I drove my last vehicle 16 or 17 years, that kind of activity doesn’t drive the economy so much.

          If you’re making $50K in DC Beltway area you better be frugal. Single person is probably renting a room or has a room mate, and rent/utils is probably $1300+ a month. Maybe they take the metro and don’t have a car, that’s what $6 a trip now? $10-$12 a day if you don’t buy in bulk.

          If you’re making $50K in flyover land or dual income household it should be easier, but isn’t always cakewalk. There are a lot of hands trying to get into your wallet all the time.

    2. San Diego 92101 (downtown condos)

      May 2017 = 224 listings
      Feb 2019 = 326 listings

      Up 45% …..life could get interesting for sellers of high rise condos in SD.

      1. Have you noticed all the dark windows in those downtown high rise condos in the early evening hours, when most inhabited dwellings have on the lights?

        1. Yes. Absentee owners. This is what makes inventory levels so “elastic”. It is much worse in China…it’s like we have more empty dwelling units than ever before…..but so many homeless too!

          1. I saw my first LA style tent on the street on the east side of Las Vegas yesterday. There are areas where the homeless congregate, such as the tunnels under the Strip and the northern central part of the city but I’d never seen anyone just camp out on the sidewalk before (Tropicana and Pecos for those familiar).

  11. Agree that once you get above about $400k it’s a totally different ballgame. Also suspect that is the market most of us here care about.

  12. Buried under the snow here in the Seattle area, but this morning I’ve got a doozy of a story to share. It’ll probably really piss off the red-pill leaning posters here.

    Last night, I had a long call from my younger brother who lives in the Atlanta suburbs. I’m pretty sure he’s -finally- heading for a divorce after putting up with a very bad and sometimes abusive marital situation for ~10 years because of/for his son.

    When he met his now wife, he was on the rebound from his first marriage, wherein his ex had a multi-year affair and he had one kid there as well. Courts are like you would imagine and his ex gets full custody with him paying support and starting over. He has a job that’s more like a govt job – steady, but doesn’t have the volatility or big rewards like tech, so his budget stays pretty fixed.

    He meets a very pretty younger lady (preacher’s daughter) back in ~’06-07 who just happens to be a ‘Realtor(tm)’ She pushes for the ring, and for them to buy a big, new construction (~350k) house in the ATL suburbs that’s at the limit what they can afford. They buy it and the following events happen in quick succession: 1) She get pregnant, 2) the ’08 housing crash, 3) She decided to full-time mom as the RE business dries up, 4) She decides one is enough and zeros out future sex and 5) they get sued for back taxes. Seems that before getting married, she never bothered to file a return, or pay estimated taxes for the 3-4 years she was a Realtorwhore ™, and now the feds and state came calling with penalties and interest. He lives on the frugal edge for years, stressed out and paying off the debts caused by her deception.

    There’s a lot more to the story including more stupidity on my brother’s part, and his BK in an effort to save the house, but the current tl;dr is that he’s finally standing up after being beaten down (many times, literally) for years and facing a bad sense of feminine entitlement. She is attached to having the house (for show? status?) and convinced she’ll keep it while he pays for it. She has been working, making nearly as much but couldn’t afford it on her own (as well as being one of those ‘my money is my money, your money is our money’ types)

    Due to the market boom, which we know is collapsing as we watch, the house was only recently out from being underwater. Given how things are likely to be dragged out given his STBX, that house won’t go up on the market until later this year, and likely be underwater at that point, in a much worse market.

    My bigger concerns for the moment for him are his physical safety and avoiding dirty tactics such as false DV charges. Right after that is advising him on how to get out from under that house situation as fast as possible.

    There’s a lot that’s gone wrong there, but the house sub-plot makes for a hell of a cautionary tale on it’s own. Pressured into buying at the limits right before a crash. Holding on at all cost when they should have walked away, then having to dispose of it during a second crash.

    I’m trying to help what I can, but it’s hard to get through the Stockholm Syndrome.

    1. Ad old adage: The game men play is money; The game women play is men.

      Your brother needs to learn this, to understand this, to “totally feel” this. Once this happens your brother will be “free” in the true sense of the word.

      IMHO. FWIW.

    2. “Buried under the snow here in the Seattle area, but this morning I’ve got a doozy of a story to share. It’ll probably really piss off the red-pill leaning posters here.”

      I think a lot of people tend to confuse “red pill” with GOP somehow. Hey, just ’cause it’s red doesn’t mean it’s Republican. I’m a non-partisan voter. The phrase “red pill” is synonymous with “truth” and nothing more. See “The Matrix” and you’ll understand..

      Sorry for your brother’s trouble. Even though this is Seattle, I’ll refrain from any references to Jeff Bezos…

      https://www.urbandictionary.com/define.php?term=red%20pill
      Urban Dictionary: “red pill”.

      “This is your last chance. After this there is no turning back. You take the blue pill: the story ends, you wake up in your bed and believe whatever you want to believe. You take the red pill: you stay in Wonderland and I show you how deep the rabbit hole goes.” – Morpheus, The Matrix

      ‘Red pill’ has become a popular phrase among cyberculture and signifies a free-thinking attitude, and a waking up from a “normal” life of sloth and ignorance. Red pills prefer the truth, no matter how gritty and painful it may be.

      “I took the red pill”

      1. “For in much wisdom is much grief: and he that increaseth knowledge increaseth sorrow.” – Ecclesiastes 1:18.

        1. Yes, but on the plus side, “knowing more vs. owing more!” The great wisdom of Solomon vs. the great idiocy of the Fed. 🙂

          “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” – L. Frank Baum, The Wonderful Wizard of Oz

        2. “And it came to pass in those days, that there went out a decree from Caesar Augustus that all the world should be taxed.” Luke 2:1

      2. I have nothing really to add here other than my consolation to your brother. A listening ear is helpful to someone who is grieving and saying sorry. I am sorry for his plight and I hope he finds peace and that any innocent children in the middle can be spared some of the nastiness that comes with spiteful divorces.

      3. I’m a non-partisan voter. The phrase “red pill” is synonymous with “truth” and nothing more.

        Red pills prefer the truth, no matter how gritty and painful it may be.

        Your brother has some pretty bad taste in women. He needs a lawyer ASAP if false DV charges are a concern.

      4. I will agree the term ‘Red Pill’ has expanded to cover areas and generally mean being exposed to ‘the truth’ about something when the majority has not been.

        In the root post I was referring to the ‘red pill’ as it is applied in the context of intersexual relations. (Think Leykis/Rational Male/Dalrock/Blackdragon/etc )

        When I got divorced about 10 years ago, I was on my way to having my eyes opened with ‘the truth’ about men and women being different, down to their internal chemistry and core motivations and programming. I know from previous comments that others here are familiar with that and various aspects of the ‘manosphere’. I don’t talk that much about it, as it is a topic that bring out fierce attack from various sectors of people that feel threatened by it (feminists, stupid liberal youth, etc).

        My brother got divorce a couple years before I did, and has firmly stayed in ‘blue pill’ camp, sadly.

    3. “I’m trying to help what I can, but it’s hard to get through the Stockholm Syndrome.”

      It’s really difficult to get through to a blue-pill cuck despite their inherited debt, humiliation, dead bedroom, etc., and when they finally crack it’s often with disastrous consequences. Proceed slowly.

      1. Agreed.

        One small point though – I think there’s a tendency to throw around the work ‘cuck’ too much these days, and it comes off as very derogatory about the person applied to in ways undeserved. I caught myself doing that before and decided to stop. I prefer to keep its usage to the original (guy with cheating spouse)

    4. Meanwhile, 40-year old ladies who are not beautiful but not ugly are languishing by the millions, wondering where they went wrong. They are above average intelligent, responsible, and can support themselves (and a cat, for those in the mood to mock). Why aren’t men like your brother seeking such women out?

      Oh right, they want the hot pretty young thigh gap.

        1. “Men are mostly fools.”

          This is due to the way we are constructed.

          “The problem is, God gave man a brain and a penis and only enough blood to run one at a time.” – Robin Williams

      2. Some odd facts of nature:

        – Tall men tend to find shorter women more attractive, while short women tend to find taller men more attractive. (Tough luck for short man and tall women!)

        – Older men tend to find younger women more attractive, while younger women tend to readily tolerate older men with bank. (Tough luck for older women and young men without any money.)

      4. “Meanwhile, 40-year old ladies who are not beautiful but not ugly are languishing by the millions, wondering where they went wrong.”

        They are aiming too high. They think they “deserve a guy who checks off all of the boxes.” Good luck with that.

        1. PS – I don’t know about a lot of these beta type males who seem to accept mediocrity in relationships, but a lot of guys have expectations and won’t stand for BS like an entitled woman who thinks she doesn’t have to do any house work, doesn’t cook, doesn’t put out, etc. It’s cats and boxed wine for a lot of those types.

        2. They are aiming too high.

          As an older gentleman who has met plenty of single women “over 40” I think that most of them are not aiming high. Mostly they need an antidote for loneliness. Mostly they have to try avoid dishonest grifters, cheaters, addicts, disgusting perverts, players and even rapists. Mostly this is very difficult given the general amoral fabric of the American man of today.

          1. Mostly they need an antidote for loneliness. That’s what dogs & cats are for. It took me a lifetime to figure out the meaning of the following quote I found the other day on the internet:

            Love and Self-interest

            If one loves someone because it gives pleasure, one should not be regarded as loving that person at all. The love is, in reality, though this is not perceived, directed towards the pleasure.

            The source of the pleasure is the secondary object of attention, and it is perceived only because the perception of the pleasure is not well enough developed for the real feeling to be identified and described.

          3. Mostly they have to try avoid dishonest grifters, cheaters, addicts, disgusting perverts, players and even rapists. Mostly this is very difficult given the general amoral fabric of the American man of today.

            I think you are generally right. I have a lady friend, whom I went to grade and high school with, and even took to homecoming, that I reconnected with a few years ago. She’s been single nearly 20 years now, and has gone through more than her share of men like you describe.

            I’ve come to chalk it up to older demographics being skewed – the good men at that pair off and get taken out of circulation, while the bad ones get back into circulation as their partners leave. I will note that general trend works for both genders – the traditionally ‘good’ women are more likely to be out of circulation as well.

        3. “Mostly they have to try avoid dishonest grifters, cheaters, addicts, disgusting perverts, players and even rapists. Mostly this is very difficult given the general amoral fabric of the American man of today.”

          Pffft. You must be hanging around some real sleazeballs. You need to get out more.

          “Many of us have been led to believe “we can have it all.” Frankly, it’s a crock of $hit.”

          Exactly. A woman who gets it. It’s called “unreasonable expectations” and it has doomed millions of women, AND men.

          1. I am very thankful that my wife works and contributes to our savings. It is not easy for us to both work full-time because we have a toddler. Right now we are fortunate enough to split the cost of a part-time nanny with another working mom. This girl who is a young university student drops our boys off at pre-school and it works. It’s just one of those crazy contortions we go through to have a dual-income.

            I appreciated this article that appeared several years ago about the myth of “Leaning In” and why it is insanely difficult for women to have a career and raise a family:

            https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2012/07/why-women-still-cant-have-it-all/309020/

          2. Many of us have been led to believe “we can have it all.” Frankly, it’s a crock of $hit.

            A lie that profits those who peddle it?

            There isn’t enough time in life to have it all. We all have to pick and choose, and it usually goes best when we play to our individual strength and don’t ignore biology.

          3. Feminism is identity politics at its finest. Gloria Steinem, arguably the front woman for the feminist movement, was a CIA agent. Coincidence? Social engineering?

          4. “It’s just one of those crazy contortions we go through to have a dual-income.”

            When the kids are in grade school they’ll frequently be sick catching every cold bug, so mom will be using-up her sick days. We moved away from California specifically so my wife could raise our children; her decision, and I supported it. Today I am fully funding two in college.

        4. When I was single post-divorce in my early 40s, I checked a lot of those boxes, and the reaction by the ladies around my age that I dated was interesting – the majority moved quickly to lock me down, which every time led me to move on. No way was I ready for that.

          I met the future Mrs when she had gone back to grad school, and she was willing to take it as slow as I wanted – it took 5 years of dating before marriage was even on the table.

          1. “…the majority moved quickly to lock me down…”

            After the military I worked primarily blue-collar jobs, which were honorable work, but lacking in benefits such as career path, health insurance, paid holidays, etc., no surprise. After I secured my civil engineering ticket the opportunities and benefits multiplied. I remember being at a friend’s wedding, and a young lady there asked what I did for work. When I replied, civil engineer, I could “see” her briefly chew on a query, and then a warm smile acknowledged her approval… I was qualified!

        1. Toxoplasma gondii is found throughout the world and infects a large number of mammals, including humans. However, the protozoan can only reproduce within the bodies of cats, and in mice, the mind-controlling parasite has evidently evolved to make mice unafraid of felines and even, according to some research, sexually attracted to the odor of cat urine; this makes it more likely infected mice will be eaten, and the parasite will make it back into a cat to spawn.

          The parasite is found in as many as one-third to one-half of humans, and its presence in the brain has been linked with suicide attempts. It may affect other areas of mental health: One study suggested that people with the parasite scored higher on tests of neuroticism, an emotional or mental trait characterized by high levels of anxiety or insecurity.

      6. My brother ran into the classic bait-and-switch situation that he was not prepared for or experienced with. He thought he was doing well, until it was too late and had already signed on the dotted line – exactly what she wanted.

        As it is, we all try to get the best partner we can, and the things each sex wants in a mate (on average) tend to produce the age gaps we’ve always seen.

        As for the 40-year old average ladies, after I got divorced, I got out there and sampled a number of them. I could go on at length, but the tl;dr was that some were bad, many were ok/fine, and a few exceptional. However I then met the future Mrs. Spiffy who was literally a clone of the ‘one that got away’ at 18 and shaped a lot of my preferences.. except 15 years younger, and without the pesky religious issues. She hates the girls that have thigh gaps though 🙂

      7. Why aren’t men like your brother seeking such women out?

        Rhetorical question I’m sure. But we all (men AND women) have issues from the way we grew up and all our romantic experiences so far. We tend to seek out the dysfunction that we’re used to and everything else seems strange or boring to us. And that’s the charitable explanation :-).

      1. I’m going to have to approach the topic carefully. We never were that close growing up, and he’s deeply invested in his current blue pill frame of reference.

          1. WestWorld5 is projecting. He and I had a heated exchange earlier this month. I thought he was a naive millennial buying into socialism. I believe it was BlueSkye who asked if I knew I was being trolled. WestWorld5 started to troll Professor Bear and I called him out.

          7. Bad links. Not used to citing blog comments. Pertinent threads are:
            We Are Seeing Some Wealth Destruction
            The Inventory Glut Is A Sort Of Reset To The Market
            There Is Just Crickets, There Is No Activity

          8. It is simple to stop a troll’s insults from registering and getting their desired result, you being upset. It’s simply abusive manipulation. If you are using the amazing Joshua Tree Extension to view Ben’s blog, there are blue ribbons surrounding each commenter’s name. Right click there, click on Add and enjoy.

            You won’t miss anything useful.

          9. HBB posters can be a fractious, opinionated bunch, but for the most part we do a decent job of treating all but the most blatant and obnoxious trolls with a modicum of respect and courtesy, despite not always seeing eye to eye. Ben usually boots the trolls who become a nuisance. But in general it’s bad form to insult, hector, or berate other posters, just like you wouldn’t want to needlessly stir up sh*t in your neighborhood bar unless you need a good ass-kicking.

          10. “WestWorld5 started to troll Professor Bear and I called him out.”

            That’s sweet, but frankly I don’t give a damn about whatever WestWorld5 may have said to troll me. Nobody currently posting approaches the level of personal attacks that were hurled at me from earlier generations of posters who eventually disappeared ceased and desisted.

          11. Professor,
            I’ve valued your insights since 2005.

            BlueSkye,
            I did just that after you confirmed my suspicions. I’m willing to engage in meaningful, substantive discussions to hone my argument and to understand another person’s point of view. I disengaged when it devolved into insults and ad hominem attacks.

      1. If false DV charges are a real concern, a good attorney can advise him on what precautions to take and what to start documenting. Phrases like “I have some serious concerns about” “I’m only seeking advice at this stage” “what are my options” should help limit the scope of representation. I would not expect such advice to be free, although it may be. Again, if false DV charges are a real concern, a few hundred dollars now could save a few thousand dollars later. As with many things in life, it’s about expectations and clear communication of those expectations.

        1. How a lawyer saved my life…

          When it came time to sit down with a lawyer to navigate divorce I was fortunate to have one who understood a lot about life and bipolar mania. He said “You’re most vulnerable when you are asleep.”

        2. Late comment, but yes.

          Let me add some detail: She has a temper, and has assaulted him multiple times. He just takes it without hitting back – imagine 6’2″ man on the floor getting kick black and blue by a 5’6′ woman – because he’s aware what would happen. She has screamed at him that if he raises a pinky to her, she’ll call 911 and he’s put in jail. Given the Deluth model that most police use, he’s screwed. I’m trying to find good cameras that he could hide in plain sight.

          1. I’m trying to find good cameras

            I hate to play Captain Obvious MG, but he needs a separate roof like yesterday. Otherwise you are just supporting the drama.

          3. I caught the abuse in your original comment. I was going to follow up with you in another thread, if needed, to make sure you got the link to help find an attorney.

            When seeking representation, your brother should convey the following pertinent facts: there is a child in the house; there is history of DV; and, threats of false charges. He should ask each attorney if he/she has experience with these types of cases and, if not, if he/she can refer him to someone that does. It could be a daisy chain of phone calls until he finds the right attorney.

            Finding a temporary living arrangement to get himself out of the house ASAP should also be high on his priority list. She could argue that if he really feared her he would have left.

            This is going to be one ugly divorce! Hope this helps.

          4. Your brother staying under the same roof seriously undermines his argument that her threats were/are credible.

  14. “‘Be aware that there are people who will promise you the world,’ Shepherd said. ‘We try to be very cognizant of not overpromising and underdelivering.'”

    The most dangerous individual in the profession: An honest used home seller!

  15. Just a follow up to one of Scott’s previous posts. I checked recent sales in south Reno for houses on larger lots, country style as you mentioned. >80% of the houses sold for less than asking and I only found two that fetched asking price. Also I didn’t find any that went contingent within 72 hours of being listed. The market there does look to favor sellers at the moment, but does appear to be the hot bed of activity you describe. Please post the data, if you believe my analysis is wrong. It would be interesting if Reno is bucking the trend that seems to be slowing down real estate on a global level.

      1. From the data on the Reno market:

        Units sold -21.9% YOY
        Inventory +54.6% YOY – (WHOA!!!)
        Price +.6% YOY – Yes, that’s six tenths of one percent, so essentially flat.

        Not quite the hotbed of activity or healthy market that Scott was pimping.

        1. Thanks for the data Chinbabwe. I was surprised by his post that there isn’t even a hint of a slowdown where he was looking. So I had to check myself to see if the anomaly existed. Houses are moving on the market out there, days on market is still on the low side. But, based on the data, I don’t see Reno as statistically deviating from the trend of slowing sales and accumulating inventory and an inevitable year over year decline in prices materializing sometime in 2019, save for an epic reversal in Fed interest rate or balance sheet policy.

    3. I did the same after reading his post but didn’t feel like I wanted to rain on his parade, but now that you have…. yes most of the properties shown as sold, went under asking and average 94 DOM. I was out there two weeks ago during a trip to north Lake Tahoe and the amount of “home for sale” signs made the Bay Area look low in comparison. I spoke to a card dealer and asked if they had any insight in Reno real estate and she said they have been building building building. My guess is they aren’t any less prone to the current bubble than the rest of the world

      1. In any case, Scott, I am glad you posted because it gave me an opportunity to do a bit of research about an area I normally don’t follow. Good luck in your new location. In any kind of market, there are bargains for the savvy, scrupulous, and discerning buyer. Some times just call for more due diligence.

    1. The Financial Times
      Brexit
      US companies warn investors of mounting Brexit risks
      Threat of disorderly exit from EU prompts growing alarm in American boardrooms
      Alistair Gray and James Fontanella-Khan in New York 12 hours ago

      Corporate America is sounding an alarm over mounting Brexit risks, beefing up warnings to investors as boardrooms worry that a disorderly departure threatens international business.

      With less than seven weeks to go before the UK is due to leave the EU, several S&P 500 groups have for the first time put Wall Street on formal notice of the risks should London and Brussels fail to reach a divorce deal.

      In its “risk factors” published on Friday, defence contractor Lockheed Martin said a persistently depressed sterling after Brexit could “negatively impact the ability of the UK government to afford our products”.
      …

    2. The Financial Times
      Japanese economy
      Japan Inc hit by China slowdown and trade disputes
      Third-quarter profits fall at sharpest rate since 2011 earthquake and tsunami
      Kana Inagaki and Leo Lewis in Tokyo 4 hours ago

      Japan Inc’s third-quarter profits fell at the sharpest rate since the 2011 Fukushima earthquake and tsunami as companies faced an abrupt slowdown in China’s economy owing to the US trade dispute.

      Following years of robust growth under Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s pro-business economic policies, Japanese companies were also hit by global growth fears that have also affected technology giants such as Apple and Intel. A series of downgrades in annual profit forecasts by Nidec, Panasonic, Fanuc and other manufacturers were accompanied by warnings about the lack of clarity about when a recovery would happen.

      “We think we hit a bottom during the October to December quarter. But the biggest problem is that we just cannot foresee the timing of a recovery,” said Yoshiharu Inaba, chief executive of industrial robot maker Fanuc, which lowered its guidance following a 42 per cent fall in quarterly operating profit.
      …

    4. The Financial Times
      Global Economy
      RBA cuts Australia GDP forecast as China slowdown worsens
      Central bank says outlook for global economy ‘has become more uncertain’
      Philip Lowe, the Reserve Bank of Australia governor, held out the prospect that the next interest rate move could be downward
      Edward White in Taipei and Jamie Smyth in Sydney February 7, 2019

      The Reserve Bank of Australia has slashed its forecast for the country’s growth amid weak consumption, global trade tension and a worsening outlook for the Chinese economy.

      The central bank said in its monetary policy statement on Friday that it had lowered its forecast for gross domestic product growth for the year to the end of June from 3.25 per cent to 2.5 per cent.

      The RBA warned that a correction in the property market, which has seen national house prices fall 8 per cent from their 2017 peak, is “a significant area of uncertainty”.
      …

    6. There’s a whole lot of stimulus going on to make sure the “everything is awesome” economy never ends.

      1. The Financial Times
        Global Economy
        IMF backs Fed rate pause citing rising global risks
        New chief economist Gita Gopinath warns of darkening economic outlook
        James Politi and Sam Fleming in Washington yesterday

        The International Monetary Fund’s new chief economist has backed the Federal Reserve’s decision to shelve interest rate increases, citing “weakening momentum” and “considerable and rising” risks to the global outlook.

        Gita Gopinath, who took over as the IMF’s top economist at the beginning of the year, flagged up a darkening picture in the euro area and China, as she warned there may have been a contraction in world trade in December.

        But Ms Gopinath said the Fed’s “pivot” towards putting “tightening on hold” would have a positive impact on the US, the world’s largest economy, which is already being helped by the remaining influence of a fiscal stimulus package.
        …

  18. OK geniuses! What is the safest way to get 4% or more return on your cash? We renters need a good place to park our savings.

    1. I snagged a 4% CD at a Connexus credit union over Christmas. It didn’t last long because it was oversubscribed, but I feel lucky I nabbed it.

          1. Ken Tumin over at depositaccounts.com runs a great blog following all of the best CDs for credit unions and banks all over the country. The savers who post on the forum always help users looking to do risk-free CD ladders which is what I do with a portion of my savings.

      1. Is the gamble institutional risk and/or risk that interest rates may go above 4% in less than five years? Connexus’ promotions for credit card debt payoff solutions, auto refinance and recreational loans makes me think its institutional risk.

      2. Cash back on credit cards is not taxed, you can get up to 4% back on certain things if your balance is high and this balance can be in a CD. Cash back plus CD you may get 4% IDK I haven’t done the math yet. Merrill Edge.

  20. LOL any interpretation of “the red pill” doesn’t change the fact that 50% of marriages end in divorce and that 70% of divorces are initiated by women.

    1. Women initiate the divorce because men are more likely to throw themselves into work to avoid home life. I saw that a lot as a practicing attorney. Some wives tolerate it, happy to have the extra money, while other wives walk away.

      1. …doesn’t change the fact that 50% of marriages end in divorce and that 70% of divorces are initiated by women.

        2. I was never in a rush to get married. I was raised to be self-sufficient by a hard-working single mom, who tried and failed to “have it all.”

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