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When Buyers Perceive The Market To Have Peaked, They Are Less Likely To Continue On With A Sale Even After Its Contracted

A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The North Texas housing market started 2019 in the dumps. Home sales were down 10 percent from January 2018, and sales prices fell in almost a dozen Dallas-area residential districts. The nosedive in the area’s home market comes after several years of booming sales and record price increases.”

“Prices declined sharply in some neighborhoods, including a 21 percent year-over-year slump in Hurst and a 14 percent drop in Keller. Prices were down 12 percent from January 2018 levels in East Dallas, Far North Dallas and Irving.”

“Agent Marty Marks of Virginia Cook Realtors said she has yet to see a jump in buyer traffic because of the lower interest rates. But more sellers are getting their properties ready to list for sale. ‘Where I see more activity is getting properties on the market in the spring,’ Marks said. ‘I have several properties in the process of staging, and more properties coming on the market.'”

“The number of single-family homes listed for sale with real estate agents was up 28 percent in January from a year earlier in the more than two dozen counties included in the North Texas market survey. That’s the equivalent of a four-month supply of homes on the market.”

“In the final months of 2018, the number of houses in the multiple listing service with price reductions rose significantly. ‘We will know in the coming months if buyers are a little less flaky than they were the second half of 2018,’ said Scott Schueler with Keller Williams. ‘When buyers perceive the market to have peaked, they are much pickier and they are less likely to continue on with a sale even after its contracted.'”

The Issaquah Reporter in Washington. “Though the Fed is in a wait-and-see mood, Karen Lindsay, branch manager of John L. Scott’s Bellevue-Issaquah office, said there are benefits to buying now versus waiting, including potentially locking in a rate of 4.5 percent on their mortgage. Besides interest rate incentives, Lindsay noted buying now can make the overall process a less stressful experience, with greater home selection.”

“‘Sellers – especially those who have been through the holidays on the market and haven’t yet sold – can be willing to negotiate a bit and it can be possible to buy a home with protective clauses in your contracts such as inspection, financing and title review,’ Lindsay said. ‘If you’re a move-up buyer, you can find the home you want to move to before selling your current home. Some sellers are willing to accept a sale contingent on the sale of another property – so if your home doesn’t sell, you won’t be obligated to buy the new home, and you’ll receive a refund of your earnest money deposit.'”

From Patch California. “This Watsonville estate is back on the market. Built in 2004, the spacious home offer plenty of amenities, including a gourmet kitchen, wine storage and an indoor spa. The home sites on 67 acres and includes a barn.”

“Price: $5,950,000. Features: Huge Price Reduction of $800,000!”

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  1. ‘Prices declined sharply in some neighborhoods, including a 21 percent year-over-year slump in Hurst and a 14 percent drop in Keller. Prices were down 12 percent from January 2018 levels in East Dallas, Far North Dallas and Irving’

    Good thing everyone is putting 20% down…

    ‘When buyers perceive the market to have peaked, they are much pickier and they are less likely to continue on with a sale even after its contracted’

    Scott is saying buyers are walking away from deposits rather than close.

  2. ‘Sellers – especially those who have been through the holidays on the market and haven’t yet sold – can be willing to negotiate a bit’

    Eeee-bola Issaquah!

  3. ‘Price: $5,950,000. Features: Huge Price Reduction of $800,000!’

    When I saved this link it had 8 shacks with huge price cuts. Oh well:

    Eeee-bola Watsonville!

      1. However the price is contradicting Ben’s thesis in that it is going to increase by 5% in the coming year according to realtor.com, who are the experts after all.

    2. The high end out here is crater central. Nothing is selling in the 2m+ range and especially in the pesticide ridden town of Watsonville. Wake up to the fresh smell of your morning coffee sprinkled with the flavorful aroma of pesticides. No thanks. Ebola indeed! Have a looksee up north of Watsonville in the bum ridden town of Santa Cruz. Fresh plate of crater tots for ya.

      https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/477-Sims-Rd-Santa-Cruz-CA-95060/2087985568_zpid/

      2/12/2019 Listed for sale $1,859,000
      1/10/2019 Listing removed $2,159,000
      11/13/2018 Price change $2,159,000
      9/10/2018 Price change $2,599,000
      8/30/2018 Listed for sale $2,897,000.

  4. “The first 10 days of January were pretty slow but then activity began to pick up,” Lindsay said. “The open houses mid-month had lots of traffic. We’ve had buyers making offers on homes and getting them accepted. Additionally, a couple of sellers’ agents reported multiple offers on several new listings within days of going on the market. All of these factors lay the framework for a strong spring market.”

    LOL. Hurry up buyers!!!!!!!! Time is running out! Buy now or be priced out forever!!!!

    1. $ultan I$$a had a “fly.$olo” $trategy to purcha$ing thing$:

      “During the decade span, the feds allege, I$$a used the money to buy 25 home$ from Montana to Mexico, including three apartments in Chicago’$ Trump Tower, two private plane$, four motor yacht$, 60 gun$, jewelry and other luxurie$. I$$a has been charged by federal prosecutors with criminal fraud.”

      Twelve years ago, Chicago banking tycoon Roger Weston sold his family bank and retired, at age 64, with a fortune of more than $200 million. He placed it in trust and moved to Naples, Fla.

      He probably had no idea what was going to happen next.

      According to federal charges filed this month by the U.S. attorney’s office in the Northern District of Illinois, Weston’s financial manager and long-standing accountant, Sultan Issa, used the money to go on an extraordinary 10-year crime spree, allegedly forging documents and stealing money. He may have plundered over $100 million from investors, contends a civil suit.

      Chicago financial adviser stole ‘at least $65 million’ in 10-year crime spree, feds allege
      By Brett Arends |MarketWatch |Published: Feb 12, 2019

      Accountant and adviser Sultan Issa is accused of using longtime client’s money to buy firearms, yachts and apartments in Trump Tower

      1. Hey Hwy,
        Please use S or s instead of $. Easier to read. Right now I mostly skip over your posts.
        Thanks!

        1. It’$ all about the monie$, and nothing multiplie$ “ea$y monie$”, like million$ & million$ of real estate $helter.$hacks!

          ($tay.focu$ed, … $omething wicked this way come$!)

          1. I am laughing as I type thi$, but no really, I mean this. It makes you tend to $kip the post no matter how good it i$ 😀

            It’$ got to be a pain in the a$$ to go up to the almost top line of the keyboard, finding it, shifting and all that. Isn’t there enough stress in life?

            Christ, don’t even get me started on coupons.

    2. HGTV = “My wife is a “photographer’s assistant” and I am a frisbee repairman, with 6 roommates, our all in budget is $800k”

  6. vix 15
    I perceived a peak and sold some sht today
    the fact that inventory is up about 25% or more in most big cities just doesn’t matter
    “it just doesn’t matter”

  7. ” …comes after $everal year$ of booming $ales and record price increase$.”

    Appears e$crows & $ales is a gettin’ a $kosh $ticky …

    “Your commi$$ion is gonna bee ba$ed on the vi$co$ity of yer clo$ed $helter.$hack $ales!”

  8. “More than 26 million people shared their DNA with ancestry firms, allowing researchers to trace relationships between virtually all Americans: MIT”

    Jessica Bursztynsky | CNBC
    Published 4 Hours Ago

    What are the odd$ that everyone on the HBB is “related” to a UH$ real e$tate sale$person?

    (run Hwy, … run!)

    1. Appropriate time for this tidbit:
      Anne Wojcicki is the co-founder and CEO of 23andMe. She was formerly married to Sergey Brin, co-founder of Google and President of Alphabet Inc. Her sister, Susan Wojcicki, is CEO of YouTube, a subsidiary of Google owned by Alphabet Inc.

      1. I’m sure that your genetic privacy is of utmost importance to these Cos. /sarc Accident waiting to happen. Be careful sharing your DNA out there! /double sarc

        If the business model involves skimming/borrowing/stealing your data (genetic or otherwise), then there’s a good chance, based on existing abuse, that it’s out there in cyberspace, being sold to the highest bidder. Like it or not. Make ’em pay for it, or shut ’em down!

          2. “19 years ago …”

            Takes time & technologie$, but some visionarie$ visions actually manife$t themselves!

        2. Might bee “In$urance Companie$” find a financial way to utilize such informational data ba$es … to.bol$ter.their.indemnitie$?

          2. It’s surreal that DNA kit companies directly market to people who pay to evaluate their health risks. Back then, I don’t think we contemplated that people would do this so blindly and willingly. Back then, pre-existing conditions weren’t covered by health insurance plans.

    2. I recall hearing there’s upward$ of 2m realturd$ in the US alone. Luckily no realtors in my direct family but yes I know many…

  10. I’d like to be in the room when a husband and wife are arguing about walking on the deposit for that sweet new condo.

      2. I showed this to my wife and she said the woman was rude to have the realtor woman on the phone but the rest seemed normal…

  12. “A report from the Dallas Morning News in Texas. “The North Texas housing market started 2019 in the dumps. Home sales were down 10 percent from January 2018, and sales prices fell in almost a dozen Dallas-area residential districts. The nosedive in the area’s home market comes after several years of booming sales and record price increases.” ”

    – “It’s déjà vu all over again.” – Yogi Berra
    – “The game isn’t over until it’s over.” – Yogi Berra

    “Agent Marty Marks of Virginia Cook Realtors said she has yet to see a jump in buyer traffic because of the lower interest rates. But more sellers are getting their properties ready to list for sale. ‘Where I see more activity is getting properties on the market in the spring,’ Marks said. ‘I have several properties in the process of staging, and more properties coming on the market.’”

    – Lower rates aren’t likely to help now. Too late in the credit cycle and psychology has turned (negative). Potential shelter-buyers using mortgage loans are (again) up to their eyeballs in debt. “No more for me, thanks! I’m full!” The unconventional/speculator buyers are – just like last time – heading for the exits. That leaves shelter-buyers. With the Fed-induced speculation removed, the market will revert to historical trend (read much lower prices).

    This guy is on top of the DFW market:
    https://aaronlayman.com/2019/02/denton-county-home-sales-fall-out-of-the-gate-in-2019/

    https://www.dentonrc.com/news/nearly-half-of-denton-households-are-struggling-to-make-ends/article_69d08b6a-272d-5a0d-a2f7-83a9f5b52885.html
    Nearly half of Denton households are struggling to make ends meet, United Way says
    By Sarah Sarder The Dallas Morning News Feb 8, 2019

    “More than 40 percent of Texas families — and nearly half of Denton’s households — are unable to afford basic needs, the United Way of Texas reported this week.”

    “That means many more people are barely scraping by than might be assumed based on the poverty rates, which are 14 percent for the state and 19 percent for the city.”

    – Go ask ALICE (Read the article for details).
    – “You can’t get blood from a stone.” – idiom
    – Heck of a job there Fed! The “wealth effect” only made income inequality worse. Great for Wall St., terrible for Main St. And they wonder why populism is “popular”…

    1. With the Fed-induced speculation removed, the market will revert to historical trend

      That might be overly optimistic. The spectacular crash and collapse of the biggest credit expansion and housing bubble in history might look somewhat worse than anything we would consider normal.

        1. Not only that, but most of what’s happened in the last 35 years shouldn’t be included in any statistic about what’s Normal.

  13. What did that guy in the article say? He hopes that buyers are not as”flaky” in 2019 as in second have of 2018. God knows it is a character flaw if you don’t offer full price on the first place you are shown. Can’t let that happen!

    That Reaktor is in for a frustrating few years coming up. What a jerk.

    1. “Since the housing market is one of the major areas where Americans store wealth and since it is an industry that buys products and labor from a multitude of other industries, a decline in housing impacts the economy more than any other industry.”

      “… where Americans store wealth …”

      How about where Americans CREATE wealth? Create wealth by pushing up the prices of houses using money that they do not have.

      Huge sectors of our stupid consumer-based economy depends on this “wealth creation”.

      A nation of dummies.

      1. store wealth …

        Housing is a conduit, through which most people pour the majority of their earnings away never to be seen again.

  16. Buffett according to a new CNBC article:


    Don’t trust forecasts or projections, especially from someone who has a financial interest in making those projections.

    Whether you’re buying a stock or a house or a business, the chairman and CEO of Berkshire Hathaway advises to do your own research. Don’t trust the “experts.”

    “Don’t ask the barber whether you need a haircut,”

    1. Well, eye$ need$ to have little tru$t in $omeone … reckon eye’ll just plod along$ with these fella$ …

      Vanguard dramatically cuts its expected rate of return for the $tock market over the next decade

      The stock market won’t keep returning the kinds of yearly gain$ investor$ have gotten used to, according to Vanguard’$ Greg Davis.

      “Our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median, annualized return,” says the fund group’s CIO.
      Matthew J. Belvedere | @Matt_Belvedere
      Published 1:15 PM ET Mon, 11 Feb 2019

      The stock market won’t keep returning the kinds of yearly gains investors have gotten used to since the financial crisis bottom in 2009, Vanguard’s chief investment officer, Greg Davis, said.

      “If we look forward for the next 10 years, our expectations around U.S. equity markets is for about a 5 percent median annualized return,” he told CNBC on Monday. “Five years ago, we’d have been somewhere in around 8 percent.”

      “Our expectations have clearly come down,” Davis added. The historical average annualized return for the stock market, accounting for inflation, is about 7 percent.

      The S&P 500 — which has soared about 15 percent since its Christmas Eve closing low, after three months of turmoil — is at the “high end of fair value,” Davis said on “Squawk Box” from the Inside ETFs Conference in Hollywood, Florida.

      Davis sees earnings growth slowing to somewhere in the single digits this year, after last year’s much stronger rate. As for the economy, which is coming off what’s expected to be about a 3 percent growth rate for 2018, Davis sees U.S. gross domestic product rising around 2 percent this year.

      With stock market returns slowing as earnings and economic growth cool off, Davis said Americans are going to need to save more and save for longer.

      Vanguard, the mutual fund giant founded in Valley Forge, Pennsylvania, in 1975, has about $5.3 trillion$ in global a$$ets under management, as of Sept. 30, 2018

      1. Was this prediction formed before or after the Powell Put started sending stocks towards the moon, around December 22, 2018?

  18. USA TODAY: National debt tops $22 trillion for the first time as experts warn of ripple effects. How can intere$t rate$ ever get back to normal?

      1. “unwilling to work” 🙂

        That quickly became a bridge too far.

        and then there’s Climate Change

        “The frontline communities that are already facing the ravages of climate change and pollution and working-class communities reliant on fossil fuel industries must be prioritized in any transformation of our society to a renewable energy economy.”

        Of course my checks continue to show that Long Island Sound and the Atlantic Ocean in SE Region IV continue remain where they have been for my entire life (born 1959).

        And the frontline communities I grew up in and around that are already facing the ravages of climate change have this to report.

        By Justin Papp Updated 1:09 pm EDT, Tuesday, September 4, 2018
        Because of poor water quality, Humpbacks had totally disappeared from the Sound for many decades, until 2015, when three different whales were seen at multiple locations on the coast.

        “Water quality in the Long Island Sound has changed in the last 30 years. Obviously, if people want to go out there and swim, animals are going to want to swim in the water, too,” Hudson said. “When we think about the improved health of the ecosystem itself, that’s when we see the large animals come back.”

        https://www.thehour.com/news/article/No-confirmed-summer-whale-sightings-in-the-Sound-13198930.php

    2. At 3.9% unemp and 100 mos of job growth. Everyone who can or wants to work is working. Medicare for all At $300 each per mo, could work. Better then poor folk and illegals getting reamed in the ER at full price and taxpayers paying for it. we can do better.

      1. Everyone who can or wants to work is working.

        Yes of course. We studies the trend of dwindling good paying jobs and the increase in gig and low paying service jobs before you found this place.

        we can do better

        That’s a pretty catchy slogan. The slogans that don’t actually say anything are the absolute best. Of course you can do better, until you run out of other people’s money.

        1. The gov is not here to get you a better job.
          I am still waiting for the GOP congress (8 of 10 yrs) to give me less gov and less spending. In good times, the debt should be paid down–no?

          1. get you a better job

            I don’t need a better job.

            I look around and see that many others need a better job.

            give me less gov and less spending

            So you’re a Socialist who just wants power rather than to help out anybody exactly and whatever you say is just to strike an emotional chord, even saying contradictory things. I got a pretty good feeling you won’t be in the club when it comes to power.

  20. So buyers are “flaky” if they decline to cash out greedy overmargined “homeowners” at ludicrous prices so that Sally Hookerontheside Realtor can afford her latest Botox treatment and Dow Corning refills?

    I could not hate this market more.

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