What is your mid-year housing bubble prediction? From six months ago: "I was sitting here contemplating what this new year is going to bring, and the biggest question that I have is where in the heck a frugal, cautious person like myself could ever get a return on cash. Treasuries look absolutely pitiful. I mean, what’s the point? Precious metals, so far as I can tell, aren’t really an 'investment,' they’re just an inflation guard. CDs at .5% APY? I was wondering where somebody would plot us in relation to the past, to guess what sort of inflation we have coming in the next couple years."

A reply: "I wonder what kind of inflation cascading defaults might bring. You say yourself that there’s no good place to invest money, yet do you think there are any good places to lend money? We’ve had an historic credit expansion and the price of things doubled while we made too much of everything. What would we build next to double the amount of debt and crap to bring on a big inflation?"

Another said: "I’ll just make two vague predictions: 1. Pandemic will be totally over by the start of school in the fall. 2. The US might have a drawn-out Depression, but I believe the plan for globalists to take over the US — as in, you-will-own-nothing-and-be-happy, will ultimately fail. As the saying goes, a herd goes insane all at once but they come to their senses one by one. I think this is what we will see, even if it happens over a couple of years."

From one year ago: "Real Journalists of the New York Times term the rejection of their #Narrative as a 'a dark and divisive speech,' from South Dakota last night: 'Our nation is witnessing a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values and indoctrinate our children … Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities.'"

"I predict that the municipal tax coffers of cities unable and unwilling to maintain law and order will continue to evaporate."

From Bisnow. "New York City slashed property values this year, drastically reducing tax obligations for many commercial landlords across the city. But even with assessments down by more than 20% in some cases, some owners say the reductions are not nearly enough relief, given the circumstances, and are squaring up to fight the city with greater force than ever before. 'What most people feel is that, although there were decreases in the valuations, they really were not significant enough compared to the effect of Covid,' said Robert Gilman, the co-leader of the real estate group at accounting firm Anchin Block & Anchin. Based on building sale prices decreasing alone, he is advocating for the valuation of buildings to fall closer to 30%."

"'The city hasn't seen a year-over-year decline in property tax revenue since, I think, 1998. There is all of this smoothing and stability that's built into the system [that] keeps the property tax steady, even during recessions,' said Citizens Budget Commission Director of City Studies Ana Champeny. 'So this is sort of an unprecedented situation here, where the finance estimates for market value showed such a dramatic decrease that we're seeing both a year-over-year decrease in market and in tax revenue.'"

"Manhattan’s office availability rate was at 18.4% in the second quarter, according to Savills, a leap from 11.8% over the prior year. Few office workers have returned to their desks, and many companies are looking at hybrid models that could move them to reduce space. Direct ground-floor availabilities in retail spaces have hit new highs, and many of those with tenants in place may be waiting until the eviction moratorium is lifted to throw them out."

"'We’re saying, 'You’re assuming you're going to snap your fingers and it's going to get back to the way it used to be,' said Joel Marcus, an attorney at Marcus & Pollack specializing in tax certiorari. 'But we don't believe so. And our clients don't believe so. Because why would they sign a lease with a new retail tenant for less than half the rent of the old tenant if they thought it was going to snap back? [Landlords] are not waiting because they don't think it's going to get better.'"

From WTOP. "The end of Virginia’s state of emergency could mean dire times for those who have been struggling to pay the bills. According to Laura Dobbs, a housing attorney, data from a Census Bureau survey showed that roughly 36% of Virginians feel they are at risk of foreclosure or eviction within the next two months. 'Unless we get this rental assistance out there as quickly as possible, we’re going to have a massive number of evictions as well as foreclosures for those owners who have been unable to keep up with mortgage payments,' she said."

From KPIX 5 in California. "As the City of San Jose mulls over its plan to remove hundreds of people from a homeless encampment adjacent to Mineta San Jose International Airport, neighboring business owners and workers expressed their frustrations. 'I am fed up. I am beyond fed up. I’m frustrated of being here and dealing with these issues on a daily basis,' said Simon Aslanpour, owner of Blooming Bouquet."

"Aslanpour, who has owned the business on Coleman Avenue for the past ten years, says 2020 was the worst he has seen. Federal health guidelines meant sweeps of homeless encampments were paused for much of pandemic. The encampment, encompassing 40 acres, grew to more than 200 people. Unofficial estimates peg the count closer to 400 to 500 people."

"As a result, Aslanpour continuously clears out piles of trash dumped on his property, and dumpsters filled with hazardous materials has resulted in increased disposal fees. Employee vehicles are routinely burglarized. A wrought iron fence is repeatedly broken as trespassers enter the grounds to fill water tanks and charge cell phones, Aslanpour told KPIX 5. A security camera was destroyed in the latest incident. And the catalytic converters were stolen on both Aslanpour’s delivery truck, and the subsequent replacement rental truck."

"At Club Rio, employee Peggie Gallardo recounted one break-in where the thieves ignored expensive audio equipment, but stole food and water, and then defecated in the kitchen and bathroom, and smeared feces on the walls and mirrors. Recently, an inhabitant from the encampment used a machete to chop landscaping and dig holes around the business. 'This is ridiculous. This is just utterly ridiculous for somebody to do this and not understand how much it affects people’s lives,' said Gallardo."

The Denver Channel. "Two Arizona-based real estate companies are targeting Colorado to invest in build-to-rent home neighborhoods. Tony Hernandez, a MSU Denver professor and expert in housing, said it’s a great property investment for real estate investors, but there is more to consider as the renter. He said while some companies only offer permanent rentals, others may offer rent-to-own homes. He added that it’s always best to be cautious, read the fine print, weigh your options and talk with a housing nonprofit. He added that there are pros and cons to the build-to-rent movement."

"'For the next generation, that means I cannot buy a house and use the equity to send my kids to school,' Hernandez said."

The Globe and Mail in Canada. "Wisdom has it you should pay off your mortgage before you retire from work, and for most people that’s the prudent thing to do. Tom and Marie want to 'spend' their house instead. 'We want to allow ourselves to splurge for the first 10 years while good health allows it, then slow down a little for the following years,' Tom writes in an e-mail."

"'Common wisdom suggests it is not a good idea to use debt to finance retirement expenses,' Tom writes, 'but I am not sure I get the problem!' Just retired, Marie and Tom, both age 60, have defined benefit pensions, investment assets of $1.4-million and a mortgage-free home in Quebec valued at $1.8-million. They want to travel extensively for the next 10 years or more but they don’t particularly want to sell their house. Their retirement spending goal is $200,000 a year for the first few years, falling to $150,000 thereafter."

"Warren MacKenzie, head of financial planning at Optimize Wealth Management in Toronto,  says. 'They’d have their house for another decade and any capital appreciation they might enjoy will be tax-free.' If the house appreciates at the rate they hope it will, Tom and Marie would have had to make nearly 10 per cent in a private debt instrument to produce the same after-tax return, the planner says."

"Marie and Tom’s basic plan 'is to spend as if their wealth was in the bank when in fact it’s tied up in the equity of their home,' the planner says. When they exhaust their cash and liquid investments, they will borrow on their line of credit secured by the house. If interest rates rise or house prices languish, they’ll switch gears and sell the property."