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Mid-Year Housing Bubble Predictions

What’s your housing bubble prediction? From six months ago. “The end of the year is going to be very different from the beginning of the year. The year will start off well, and those in defensive positions (cash, The Precious) will take a hit. Then the shenanigans — low interest rates, repo market, globalist manipulations, Brexit, overdue commercial/multi RE loans, inverted yield curve, etc. — will finally catch up with the economy. I expect a recession/crash between Memorial Day and Election Day. It won’t be as serious as 2008, maybe along the lines of 2001.”

A reply. “I respectfully disagree. The next crash is going to exceed the Great Depression in terms of economic devastation to the real economy as well as the rigged Wall Street speculative casino.”

From one year ago. “Lots of peak bubble talk last few days. Over heard two co -worker Engineers today talking about the second homes they are trying to buy for investments. Also my plumber was telling me to never sell my house. All this money has to go away to money heaven soon it always does. Prediction by the end of 2020 a recession.”

One said. “The other factor is homebuilding is half of what it was before the last collapse. Consequently home building is less than half the share of the economy as then. This means it is unlikely to trigger the same magnitude of a recession as last time.”

A reply. “The supply side is only half the story. The current market has record investor penetration, and that share of demand seems certain to evaporate in the face of cratering prices. As investors reposition themselves from the demand side to the supply side of the market, downward pressure on prices will sizably increase. Once flipper demand is gone, fundamental demand will take over, but given crushing consumer debt loads, this will prove a paltry substitute. And if the widely anticipated recession comes to pass, you can stick a fork in US housing demand.”

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    1. ‘Significant Price Reduction! Please call for Appointment to View
      3528 Blue Mountain Drive, Fairfield’

      ‘Views. Located on top of the world in the gated community of Blue Ridge Oaks. Three acres of privacy, peacefulness and nature. Two story open design home. Two bedrooms and full bath downstairs. Three car attached garage. The property also includes a two story, 1,800 sq ft, accessory building that has an additional attached one car garage and a basement maybe for a potential wine cellar. In addition to the community owned 2,200 acres of back country for the enjoyment, roaming and exploration of the home owners, there is a common area with a park, a sheltered picnic and and a horse arena.’


      1. More pix at zillow:,-CA,-94534_rb/15700313_zpid/?

        F-u-u-u-u-gly, outside and in. And I mean ug-g-g-g- lee. Floor plan – huh? Hot tub stuck out against a wall where the trash cans would probably go. Dead(?) tree out front. 3000+ sq ft and only two full baths — not even a guest powder. The “potential maybe” wine cellar is a masonry block storm cellar in a weird building 250 away from the main house (imagine hauling bottles of wine that far) . Crap value for “entertaining.” No back yard to speak of. $250/mo HOA. Decor — just … yikes. No wonder it’s $200K off. My guess is they’re trying to capitalize on the rich folk fleeing San Francisco.

    2. It’s clear that COVID-19 is not the bubonic plague, which apparently was very contagious with a much higher death rate than COVID-19.

      It’s the range of symptoms from none to lethal coupled with its highly contagious nature that makes COVID-19 a challenge to contain. Everyone can easily agree to do everything possible to shut down a disease that will kill anyone who gets it. The social resolve is weaker in the case of COVID roulette.

      1. Worrisome mutation: “At least four lab experiments suggest that the mutation makes the virus more infectious. Another study from Los Alamos National Lab finds that patients with the G variant actually have more virus in their bodies, i.e. more likely to spread it to others.

      2. As one might easily predict, the governments efforts to protect us from the virus are becoming more hazardous than the virus itself. I am expecting IQs to drop 5-10 points in a few years in children who were forced to wear masks for prolonged periods resulting in hypoxia and irreversible brain damage. An entire generation of brain damaged children whose risk of serious illness from CV approaches zero.

        I do seem to be observing the market Improving in rural areas within some proximity to the city. East county San Diego, houses on a few acres with a well are selling quickly.

        1. An entire generation of brain damaged children whose risk of serious illness from CV approaches zero. Let’s not forget the mental health and developmental damage done by the CV response. I’ve personally watched thousands of dollars in behavioral and speech therapies go to waste in the last 3.5 months.

        2. East County San Diego is where my son and his fiancee are building a starter home. I’m proud of him for figuring out a way to avoid paying mania prices.

        3. An entire generation of brain damaged children whose risk of serious illness from CV approaches zero.

          The perfect Democrat dependency voters, in other words. Hey cretin – pull down that statue!

  1. ‘As individuals watched their money evaporate, some market professionals thrived. They understood not just commodities but also the vulnerabilities in the products amateurs were trading.’

    ‘Cho Byung-jae got burned in this new trading world. A 22-year-old South Korean living in a city south of Seoul, he bought crude futures at 30 cents a barrel back in April. He then watched in horror as prices kept falling. Just after 3 a.m. local time, oil fell below $0 for the first time ever—meaning he would have to pay to get rid of his holdings.’

    ‘All the while, Mr. Cho’s trading platform still showed positive prices. As he tried to sell, the platform froze. When the dust cleared, he faced losses up to $56,000.’

    “The prices…were going haywire,” Mr. Cho said. “There was something very wrong.”

    “I never thought oil prices could turn negative,” said Zhang Ye, a mechanical engineer who was informed the following morning in local time that he had lost his roughly $28,150 investment through the product and owed the bank another $44,925.’

    ‘Several days after the April 20 crash, a representative of Mr. Cho’s brokerage, Kiwoom Securities Co., said he could settle his positions to pay just over $7,000, down from the maximum possible loss of $56,000.’

    ‘Instead, he made a sign reading “Every day is hell for the victims! Compensate immediately!” and protested at Kiwoom’s Seoul headquarters. That got him a meeting with the firm’s chief executive. Mr. Cho eventually accepted the offer to pay more than $7,000.’

    ‘Kiwoom has nearly finished providing compensation for about 50 similar cases and expects its losses to total over 1 billion won ($818,000), a spokesman said. “It was all really absurd,” Mr. Cho said. “I felt that they were the ones who messed up, but I had to pay the price.”

    1. “It was all really absurd,” Mr. Cho said. “I felt that they were the ones who messed up, but I had to pay the price.”

      The common thread in all of these “retail trader gets wiped out” stories is the complete absence of regulators who would prevent trading firms from marketing such risky trading vehicles to rubes. ROK regulators are as evidently as captured and worthless as ours.

  2. Westport, CT Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Fairfield County Housing Market Crumbles

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As a distinguished economist noted, “If you have to borrow for 15 or 30 years, you can’t afford it nor is it affordable.”

  3. Can the federal government continue to redistribute income upward by inflating asset prices, then borrow money to hand out to the serfs to keep consumer spending from collapse? That is the question.

    The stock market is soaring. Businesses are cutting wages and salaries. But they are also consolidating, with more and more sales going to fewer and fewer firms, which can then raise prices. No wonder the stock market is soaring — lower wages, higher sales, the government making up the difference, printing money and basically handing it to the richest.

    How long can this keep on? What are the social consequences? How long can Generation Greed keep control, and limit all the sacrifices to those coming after?

    1. If you’re going to continue engaging in class warfare, then you are part of the problem and not part of the solution.

      1. If you’re going to lean on the aww shucks we can’t do anything about it routine, you are the problem.

      2. And the funny thing is that if you do not engage in class warfare, you’re still part of the problem; you’re just doing it subconsciously.

      3. If you’re going to continue engaging in class warfare, then you are part of the problem and not part of the solution.

        Odd, I read Larry’s post twice, and saw no indication he was engaging in class warfare. Looked to me like he was stating the facts.

      4. That’s not class warfare lol. He is simply rewording the fact that there is a paradox between Wall Street and employment. Something has to give soon. My bet is on equities giving in first.

    2. It seems like the Fed and other top U.S. financial authorities are doing their best to help maintain the money flows through the economy that enable businesses to remain open and households to pay for their essential needs.

      But the policy amounts to putting a bandaid on a gunshot wound, and the patient is at risk of bleeding to death. Wouldn’t it make more sense to focus resources on staunching the blood loss?

  4. Real Journalists of the New York Times term the rejection of their #Narrative as a “a dark and divisive speech,” from South Dakota last night:

    “Our nation is witnessing a merciless campaign to wipe out our history, defame our heroes, erase our values and indoctrinate our children … Angry mobs are trying to tear down statues of our founders, deface our most sacred memorials and unleash a wave of violent crime in our cities.”

    I predict that the municipal tax coffers of cities unable and unwilling to maintain law and order will continue to evaporate.

    Let them all burn, they’ve proved themselves incapable of self-governance.


    “This is certainly a tragic situation when you have an innocent child who gets caught in the middle of an altercation between others,” Derzis said.

    Yeah, good thing it wasn’t a white police offer that pulled the trigger this time. That would have been an outrage:

    The mall in suburban Birmingham was the site of a 2018 police shooting where an officer fatally shot a Black man with a gun after mistaking him for the gunman in an earlier shooting at the mall.

    The shooting of 21-year-old Emantic “EJ” Bradford Jr. prompted a series of protests at the mall.

  6. Silver Spring, MD Housing Prices Crater 11% YOY As Northern Virginia/Washington DC Rental Rates Tank On Surging Mortgage Defaults

    As one Washington DC broker conceded, “If you’re a buyer, the broker is lying to you. I know a liar when I hear one. I’ve been lying my entire life.”

  7. Staying on topic, I think (conservatively) in this area we are long overdue for a 15% – 25% price correction overall, just based on inability of household incomes to keep up with housing price inflation. Sellers who do manage to make it to closing now are for the most part taking significant beatings at the table, especially for properties about $300K – $350K.

    What will be interesting to see will be whether or not there will be structural change in location desirability from the pandemic. Will higher density urban living still be preferable to suburban / rural and continue to drive higher prices in trendy “downtown” areas?

    1. I honestly have no good answer to whether there is enough w@h to make a dent in the housing market.

    2. Maybe this time is different, but the last two times that a recession significantly dented U.S. housing demand, it took about five or so years for the housing market to bottom out (roughly 1991-1996 and 2007-2012). The latter episode could have taken considerably longer to find a bottom, had the Fed not biggly primed the real estate investing pump with QE3.

      I have no idea how things will play out this time, given that the Fed came in strong and early with Unlimited QE, which seems to differ from the approach taken the last two times fundamental demand for housing collapsed due to the onset of a recession. Maybe the Fed will build on its precedent of supporting housing demand, and if so, maybe it will work as planned…who knows?

  8. Helena, MT Housing Prices Crater 16% YOY As Retirement/Vacancy Property Market Takes A Severe Beating

    *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

    As one noted economist stated, “I can ask $50k for my run down Chevy pickup but where is the buyer at that price? So it is will all depreciating assets like houses and cars.”

  9. I think the main point that I keep harping on is that we have to become a productive Nation again.

    The USA needs to do its own manufacturing and enough of this outsourcing of jobs that only benefits the Globalist.

    The working class is just struggling and it’s only going to get worse. When people cry “Protectism” when it comes to protecting Citizens jobs ,than the issue is really protecting Globalist profits by allowing them to gain by a world wide pay scale.
    When the Globalist suffer no penalty for taking a job from America, as well as the tax revenue from that job, than they are looting and guting America..

    This Country was not conceived as a One World Economic order. Trade between Countries yes.

    As a direct result of the policies of the last 25 years , that was a betrayal by the Politicians, a house of cards was built.
    So, the net result of the betrayal from the Political class of the Majority working class in the USA is class warfare that’s wrongfully labeled racism.

    The USA is now just a outpost for the Fat Cat Globalists. When you have Political party saying the most important issues are open borders, racism, shoring up the price fixing Obamacare, and taking away Citizens guns, and expanding welfare, you know we are doomed.
    And the government shores up the overpriced industries like higher education, Health Care, and real estate speculation, and debt.
    All the conditions currently make the USA ripe for Commie takeover.
    There is no other choice but a total overhaul of the current situation and go back to a productive Nation again. Good paying jobs and a crack down on price fixing monopolies. Smaller Government in which tax payer funds aren’t used to prop up rigged industries.
    And most likely a withdraw from foreign war entanglements.
    It’s obvious that the Globalist Looters are using these false narratives and fake everything to take the heat off themselves.

    All these brainwashed hell children Protestors no doubt want Communism as the answer to the current Oligarchy. A return to the intent of the Framers of the USA Constitution is the real answer. Strange but any talk along these lines is spun as Naziism. You can only demean America ,as well as the White race.

    So, I predict that this coming election needs to be one that is a disenpowerment of the current powers, so a meaningful correction of what went awry in the USA can take place.

    I don’t know if the Republicans can step up to the plate or not, but at least it buys time until even a new party is formed, that will restore America.

    So, a long rant ,but no option but a total overhaul of what the USA became because of the betrayal of the Politicians.

    1. Unfortunately, a total collapse is probably inevitable at this point. Hopefully it will be followed by a reckoning for all those who contributed to destroying what had once been the greatest country in the world.

    2. Whatever overhaul is going to happen, it won’t be this election. We’re not even positioned for change. The country is just so low on general energy. We’re in for bad times that will last at least until 2024. (It will take that long just to get everyone vaccinated, or a virus so mutated that we don’t care anymore.)

    3. You mean the voters who voted for the politicians right? Those same voters who avidly shop at Walmart then complain there are no good jobs.

    4. “And most likely a withdraw from foreign war entanglements.”

      Not if you’re waiting on Jesus to return to the Mount of Olives. They’ll spend everything they can until you’re standing in line for free potatoes with a 5-gal bucket.

      1. Not if you’re waiting on Jesus to return to the Mount of Olives.

        There are many who are waiting for that, but who also understand that there is nothing they can do to hasten that event.

    5. “Stepping up to the plate”. Bwahahahaha good luck with that. The faster you believe that politicians work against you, the happier you’ll be.

  10. Here is something to chew about regarding Japan’s covid-19 cases and deaths.

    At the height of the outbreak in Wuhan in February, when the city’s hospitals were overwhelmed and the world put up walls to Chinese travellers,Japan kept borders open.

    As the virus spread, it quickly became clear that Covid is a disease that primarily kills the elderly and is massively amplified by crowds or prolonged close contact. Per capita, Japan has more elderly than any other country. Japan’s population is also densely packed into huge cities.

    Then there is Japan’s refusal to heed the advice of the World Health Organization (WHO) to “test, test, test”. Even now, total PCR tests stand at just 348,000, or 0.27% of Japan’s population.

    Nor has Japan had a lockdown on the scale or severity of Europe. In early April, the government ordered a state of emergency. But the stay-at-home request was voluntary. Non-essential businesses were asked to close, but there was no legal penalty for refusing.

    Many paragons of Covid strategy, such as New Zealand and Vietnam, used tough measures including closing borders, tight lockdowns, large-scale testing and strict quarantines – but Japan did none of that.

    Yet, five months after the first Covid case was reported here, Japan has fewer than 20,000 confirmed cases and fewer than 1,000 deaths. The state of emergency has been lifted, and life is rapidly returning to normal.

    This is how he explains it: When a virus enters the human body, the immune system produces antibodies that attack the invading pathogen.

    “When we looked at the tests we were astonished… in all patients the IGG response came quickly, and the IGM response was later and weak. It looked like they had been previously exposed to a very similar virus.”

  11. ‘So why is the press still obsessively talking about “cases” as if there were a linear correlation between them and threat to the health of the vast majority of people?’

    ‘I see only two possible explanations. The first is herd stupidity, that is, the deeply ingrained tendency of everyone with a keyboard and a twitter feed to—for all their often histrionic attempts to portray themselves as “fiercely independent”—studiously ape the central presumptions of the corporate media’s view of reality and confine their institutional critiques to the very peripheral realms of nuance and style.’

    ‘The second possibility is flat-out institutional corruption, that is, that people in very high places have told their servants in the media to keep the panic, and the enhanced control of the population it enables, going as long as possible.’

    ‘This disconnect between the obsessive tracking of “cases” and the assessment of real-life dangers to the population often verges on the comical.’

    ‘Given what we now know, it is out and out journalistic malpractice to continue to harp on the growth of “cases” as the prime indicator of the dangers we face from the epidemic. The only statistics that can give us any concrete sense of what we actually face in this realm are rates of ICU admissions and deaths. The rest is fear porn, pure and simple.’

    1. One can only assume that there is something to be gained politically by the games being played.

      Whatever the motives are for these people to misrepresent a virus, it’s evil, whatever the motive is.

    2. It seems like the falling death rates can be at least partially explained by elderly people avoiding COVID-19 exposure and the need for younger folks to get on with life and work for a living in places with exposure to the risk. If the distribution of cases shifts to the younger age range, the death rate will naturally decrease.

      On a personal note, a young adult daughter of a family we know moved home back in March, only to recently return to the distant city where she is trying to launch her adult life. Within two weeks of moving away from home, she has come down with COVID-19. And being young and generally healthy, I expect she will survive.

      1. I think some Countries ,like Japan, have lower C19 deaths because the population is healthy. Maybe they consume a lot of fish and .mushrooms so they have high vitiamin D levels.

        1. Shellfish are high in zinc. Seaweed is high in iodine. They don’t seem to have any of the co-morbidities — for example they aren’t 42% obese. That alone will bring down the death rate.

      2. On a personal note, a young adult daughter of a family we know moved home back in March, only to recently return to the distant city where she is trying to launch her adult life. Within two weeks of moving away from home, she has come down with COVID-19. And being young and generally healthy, I expect she will survive.

        Yes. The question is…can she ever go “home” again? If so, when? Right now my son is with my parents (they live close to his college) while he waits for his dorm to re-open in the fall. If they don’t he has to decide where to live next. But it’s an important decision because once he lives somewhere else it may not be an option to stay with my parents again.

        1. I have a son who was in the same situation through last fall, living with grandparents while attending college out of state. Now he’s back home preparing for an LDS church mission to one of the COVID-19 hotspots. So I strongly empathize with our friends’ daughter’s plight, as we face a similar risk with sending our son away to his destiny.

          1. Congrats on your son being willing and able to do that. I elected not to and my son also has chosen not to, but I have a lot of respect for the people who do and I would have preferred my son had chosen differently than I did. I am trying to help a young guy in Malaysia that I met while at church there that is scheduled to go to France later this year on a mission.

    3. ‘The second possibility is flat-out institutional corruption, that is, that people in very high places have told their servants in the media to keep the panic, and the enhanced control of the population it enables, going as long as possible.’

      This choice does line up nicely with the MSM taking a coronavirus public brow beating several week hiatus to cheer on the Peaceful Protesters who burned, looted and vandalized cities across the country before redoubling their “how dare you not wear a mask you’re endangering us all get off the beach and back into Walmart or you’ll be arrested” daily talking points.

  12. The great U.S. political divide between left and right threatens to prolong and worsen the COVID-19 situation in the U.S. compared to a cooperative approach where society reopens subject to agreed upon rules for limiting the spread of COVID-19. It doesn’t help matters for liberal Democrats in government and academia to
    support a double standard,
    taking a hard line against COVID-19 in the case of business closures but then giving a pass to BLM protesters and spewing junk science research to push the opinion that mass protests don’t increase the spread of COVID-19. The virus doesn’t care why people congregate in mass gatherings at close proximity.

    The failure to collectively get our act together this summer may set the stage for a very difficult cold and flu season starting this fall in areas with high case rates, as seasonal flu cases requiring hospitalizations are added to an already heavy COVID-19 caseload.

    And the economic cost of the renewed closures needed to reduce the strain on medical resources will obviously be high, and might even threaten to derail the booming stock market once again.

    1. MSM journalists seem to believe that protesting in the name of BLM confers COVID-19 immunity.

      The hypocrisy and stupidity…it burns.

      ‘We refuse to celebrate’: July 4th protesters say not all Americans are free
      Grace Hauck | USA TODAY

      CHICAGO — Not all Americans are kicking back to watch fireworks to celebrate independence this holiday weekend.

      Amid thousands of protests against police brutality and a pandemic that has disproportionately ravaged communities of color, many people planned to spend Fourth of July drawing attention to what they say is a hypocritical celebration of freedom.

      Rallies, marches and sit-ins were planned Saturday in Chicago, Washington, D.C., Los Angeles and more than a dozen other U.S. cities.

      On Friday, protesters blocked a highway leading up to Mount Rushmore, where President Donald Trump was scheduled to speak. Police used pepper spray and arrested the protesters, who argue the land in which the monument lies on – Black Hills – was seized from the Lakota Sioux by the U.S. government in the 1800s, and that the Trump administration opposes the interests of Native Americans and other minority groups.

      On Saturday in the nation’s capital, where Trump planned to host hundreds of people at the White House for music and fireworks, organizers led several demonstrations across the city. Thousands of people expressed interest in a Facebook event for a “George Floyd Memorial March on Washington,” which began Saturday morning.

      The Independence Day holiday “doesn’t really mean anything when Black people weren’t free on July 4th and those same liberties weren’t afforded to us,” said Kerrigan Williams, co-founder of Freedom Fighters D.C., who has been co-organizing marches in the city for at least three weeks.

      “We’re still marching for the same things.”

      1. “…a pandemic that has disproportionately ravaged communities of color,…”

        Will a bunch of people of color getting together in mass public gatherings and collectively stamping their feet help reduce the number of COVID-19 cases among people of color?

        I have my personal doubts. Maybe some really smart people published an academic study to prove this is the case?

      2. ‘We refuse to celebrate’: July 4th protesters say not all Americans are free

        Last time I checked, exit visas were not required to leave the country.

        1. These people that claim they aren’t free are excersing the right to protest . Try going to other Countries and see what they do to you.
          And give me a break that all Countries history didn’t include bloodshed, conquering and slavery.

          These people have all the Rights. A bunch of brainwashed brats that only ask what their Country can do for them. Look at immigrants that weren’t given welfare and had to work their ass off just so their offspring could have a better life. How about the Irish who came here to escape starvation , they had to start from scratch.

          The Commie playbook is to tear down America and demoralize it and demonize it so they can take over.

          1. The Commie playbook is to tear down America and demoralize it and demonize it so they can take over.

            The worst part is they wouldn’t know what to do with it even if you handed it to them other than try to force the productive people to keep working at gunpoint if necessary. Which is also of course straight out of the commie playbook.

          2. force the productive people to keep working at gunpoint if necessary. Which is also of course straight out of the commie playbook

            Reminds me of some book I read about some dude shrugging…

      3. Just FYI, the Fourth of July didn’t grant me the right to vote either. That didn’t come ~140 years later. I’m not asking to suppress the male vote for 140 years to break even.

        1. I suspect clever ladies of yore had their means of influencing the vote, despite their lack of an explicit roght.

    2. We’re down to 254 deaths in the US today. This does not jive with the media fearmongering.

  13. I expect out-of-state owners of beachfront rental property in Hawaii to continue to regret their investment decision.

    1. Vacation rental owners claim discrimination, threaten lawsuit
      A group of vacation rental owners and property managers threatens a $1 billion lawsuit, if they are not allowed to re-open.
      Thursday, June 11th 2020, 11:23 AM HST by Paul Drewes

      Owners of legal vacation rentals could level a $1 billion lawsuit against state and county governments, which have shut them out of the accommodation industry during the shutdown.
      Jackie Quinlan’s one bedroom condo at the Waikiki Banyan has a great view of the ocean, a full kitchen along with new furniture and fixtures, it even has a nonconforming-use certificate, which makes it a legal vacation rental. What it doesn’t have is guests, because it is not allowed to be open for business.

      “This is my livelihood. I haven’t made any money since mid-March. Yet the hotels are able to make money. I don’t understand why they can operate, but we cannot,” stated Quinlan.

      Her frustration has been growing because there appears to be no end in sight for the restrictions on many legal vacation rentals.

      “Financially I am living off of my savings, it is very stressful,” added Quinlan.

      That frustration is being echoed by other legal vacation rental owners as well as property managers hurt by the targeted shutdown of their businesses.

      “I think it is frustration and desperation, like everyone else who has lost their job. The bills don’t stop coming, mortgages still have to be paid, or rent is still due,” said Honolulu attorney Gregory Kugle. He represents a number of owners who feel they are being discriminated against during this pandemic, because other accommodations like hotels and motels have been allowed to stay in business.

      “We don’t think it is fair or legal for the government to pick favorites and determine which sectors survive and which don’t,” added Kugle.

      1. “We don’t think it is fair or legal for the government to pick favorites and determine which sectors survive and which don’t,” added Kugle.

        Ron Paul said the same thing in 2008. I’m guessing that none of the current AirBNB whiners voted for him. It’s hard for me to feel any sympathy at all for anyone who voted for the Republicrat duopoly and its corporatist statist policies.

    2. Hawaii
      Judge Denies Request To Lift Hawaii’s Travel Quarantine
      Plaintiffs seeking to immediately allow unrestricted travel to the islands said the COVID-19 virus didn’t create an emergency.
      By Stewart Yerton
      July 3, 2020
      Reading time: 4 minutes.

      A federal judge on Friday let stand Gov. David Ige’s authority to impose a 14-day quarantine on passengers arriving in Hawaii in a move that protects his plan to reopen the state’s tourism industry with a number of safeguards designed to protect residents and travelers.

      Ruling in the state’s favor, U.S. District Judge Jill Otake said the U.S. Constitution allows Ige to take extraordinary steps to protect public health and safety, even if the actions implicate certain fundamental rights.

      A U.S. district court judge ruled in the state’s favor Friday in a case involving the mandatory quarantine order.

      “In these unprecedented times, it is not the Court’s role to second-guess the decisions of state officials who have the expertise to assess the COVID-19 pandemic and institute appropriate measures to minimize its impact to this community,” she wrote in her 35-page opinion issued on Friday.

      “Until Defendant implements the components of Hawaii’s risk mitigation strategy, a sudden, wholesale lifting of all restrictions in the Emergency Proclamations would be highly detrimental and disruptive,” Otake wrote. “Defendant is confronting a dynamic situation fraught with uncertainty.”

      The action, which sought a temporary order blocking Hawaii’s quarantine, was brought by four people with connections to the state who said Ige’s orders infringed their fundamental rights.

      Holly and Timothy Carmichael are residents of California and trustees of a trust that owns a condo on Maui. Brooke McGowan is an Oahu resident with family on the mainland. Russell Hirsh lives in Nevada and owns a house in Kailua and a farm in Hilo.

      The plaintiffs challenged the law under several principles of the U.S. Constitution, chiefly the Fifth Amendment’s due process clause, the Fourteenth Amendment’s equal protection clause and the right to travel, which isn’t explicitly spelled out in the Constitution, but established as a fundamental right in various U.S. Supreme Court cases.

      Central to the case was the question of whether the COVID-19 pandemic posed such a threat to public health and safety that Ige could exercise emergency powers recognized by the U.S. Supreme Court. The Supreme Court, Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals and other courts have all applied this standard to uphold the actions of state and local governments during the current crisis.

      1. Judges are all corrupt in this state. Remember the one throwing out Trumps border shutdown? They do whatever their money masters tell them. Hawaiis shutdown has been used to kill off the STR economy as well as all the businesses that had sprung up on the past few years. As far as I know STRs are allowed to operate on the outer islands now, so why is Oahu still keeping STRs from opening? Probably because most of the tourism is confined to that island and this is payback to the hotel unions. My RE prediction given how many properties have come to market on Maui is that island is toast. Its not clear what will happen to the other islands.

        Also, I have booked flights to the mainland 6 times now since March – 5 have been canceled. Airlines are advertising flights but the reality is that only Alaska appears to be flying between here and the mainland – couple sets of friends just flew back after months of trying (although not particularly hard ;)).

        Last point – surfed with a buddy yesterday who said his friend who works out of Lousiana in shipping got the covids along with 5 or 6 others on the same ship. Said the fever hit him pretty hard but the doctor just has him taking tylenol, thats it. Company has him quarantined in a hotel and he aint losing any weight with the food in Louisiana, lol.

  14. Airlines will continue to struggle with a collapse in demand, due to (1) unemployed workers unable to afford air travel, (2) the cessation of in person business conferences eliminating business travel demand, (3) the ongoing restriction or closure of tourist destinations to outside visitors, (4) traveler fears of catching COVID-19 due to breathing shared air on the plane.

    All told, it seems like the airline industry faces a lot of headwinds until COVID-19 is over.

    1. It’s going to face headwinds far longer than that. It wouldn’t surprise me if airlines shrunk by a quarter to a third.

      1. Any sector that is heavily dependent on vacation travel seems fundamentally doomed for the remainder of COVID-19, and possibly on a permanent basis, unless innovation saves the day. This includes not only air travel, but hospitality, restaurants, cab and ridesharing service, rental cars, vacation home sales, cruise lines, tourism-dependent entertainment industry businesses, and any other businesses significantly dependent on supplying these industries (e.g. hotel construction). Innovation in the form of a COVID-19 vaccine or safety protocols that limit infection risk could be a gamechanger to the upside, but I see scant evidence that this is on the nearterm horizon.

  15. CAUTION: Not housing related …

    Tesla No Longer Even A Growth Company; Going Bankrupt: Shortseller

    (snip snip snip)

    Stanphyl Capital letter to investors for the month ended June 30, 2020, discussing their short thesis for Tesla Inc (NASDAQ:TSLA) and other positions in several small-cap stocks.

    We remain short Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which I still consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market. The core points of our Tesla short thesis are:

    Tesla has no “moat” of any kind; i.e., nothing meaningfully proprietary in terms of electric car technology, while existing automakers—unlike Tesla­—have a decades-long “experience moat” of knowing how to mass-produce, distribute and service high-quality cars consistently and profitably, as well as the ability to subsidize losses on electric cars with profits from their conventional cars.
    In 2020 Tesla will again lose money, as it has every year in its 17-year existence.
    Tesla is now a “busted growth story”; revenue growth is flatlining while unit demand for its cars is only being maintained via price cutting.
    Elon Musk is a securities fraud-committing pathological liar.
    In June, courtesy of Business Insider, we once again learned how much of a sociopath Elon Musk is:

    Then, courtesy of J.D. Power, we again learned about the atrocious quality of Tesla’s cars; it ranked dead last of 31 brands surveyed:

    1. I have a simple investment strategy for you to consider:

      Stop worrying so much, buy a boatload of Tesla stock, and make yourself fabulously wealthy!

      1. Tesla stock topped $1,200. Here’s how it could hit $2,000
        By Paul R. La Monica, CNN Business
        Updated 3:08 PM ET, Fri July 3, 2020
        Elon Musk unveils the tunnel he says will solve LA traffic
        Elon Musk steps down as Tesla chairman
        See Tesla’s new Model Y
        Musk opens up about Tesla’s near ‘death’
        See Elon Musk’s tunnel under Los Angeles
        Elon Musk sued over ‘pedo’ tweet
        Elon Musk smokes weed during interview
        How Tesla made electric cars sexy
        Tesla co-founder and CEO Elon Musk introduces the newly unveiled all-electric battery-powered Tesla Cybertruck at Tesla Design Center in Hawthorne, California on November 21, 2019. (Photo by Frederic J. BROWN / AFP) (Photo by FREDERIC J. BROWN/AFP via Getty Images)
        Elon Musk has a lot to say about Covid-19. Some of it isn’t true
        Listen to Elon Musk’s early predictions about space travel
        Elon Musk busts a move in Shanghai
        Elon Musk: Starship could take people to orbit within a year
        Hear some of Elon Musk’s most ambitious predictions
        Investor: Have to take ‘good and bad’ with Elon Musk

        New York (CNN Business)
        Tesla’s stock soared 26% during the holiday-shortened week, topping $1,000, $1,100 and $1,200 in the process. Tesla is now worth more than most blue chip firms in the S&P 500.

        But one Wall Street analyst is making the case that the stock still could surge another 66% over the next 12 months to hit $2,000. So far Tesla (TSLA) shares have risen an electrifying 189% this year, driven partly by a broader increase in the tech sector.

        Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report earlier this week that solid demand for Tesla’s Model 3 from Chinese consumers could help boost the stock. He dubbed the strength in China a “ray of shining light for Tesla in a dark global macro” environment.
        Ives noted that demand for Tesla’s newer Model Y SUV is starting to ramp up in China, too. For these reasons, he thinks that China’s growth could add between $300 and $400 to its stock price.

        1. Wedbush analyst Dan Ives said in a report earlier this week that solid demand for Tesla’s Model 3 from Chinese consumers could help boost the stock.

          What impact will future Martian sales have?

          1. Do you mean after Elon establishes and personally populates his Martian colony?

    2. We remain short Tesla Inc. (TSLA), which I still consider to be the biggest single stock bubble in this whole bubble market.

      In my opinion, Tesla is the biggest bubble stock in history. It’s a joke at this point, like crypto.

    1. If the police aren’t actively blocking off the freeway to “close” it, how is one supposed to avoid something like this?

      I see Darwin hasn’t been furloughed yet, though!

      1. My bad, read another article that was more clear — the highway was blocked off by police, and this car went around them

    2. If they die, will the cause of death be listed accurately as Trump Derangement Syndrome, or Advanced Liberal Derangement? Nah, probably someone will mark it down as the covids.

      You have to be clinically insane to play on a freeway at night.

  16. If you want to see where the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed are taking us, watch Lebanon. Hyperinflation is now ravaging the country as the currency collapses under the weight of the accumulated fraud and pillaging carried out by the corrupt elites in collusion with the central bank. Now the financial reckoning day can no longer be deferred.

    Watch and learn, HBBers. Watch and learn.

    1. Bewildered and scared, Ife, an Ethiopian domestic worker, explains how a few hours ago she thought she was on her way to Beirut airport. “So you can fly home,” her cash-strapped employer had said while pushing her out of the car in front of the Ethiopian embassy.

      Looks like Lebanon has been feasting at the cheap labor trough as well. It’s time to start executing globalists.

  17. It’s hard to believe, but once upon a time there were real journalists (as opposed to the globalist lapdog Real Journalists) who at great personal risk pursued the truth and real stories wherever they led. While the New York Times and its ilk were gushing over how wonderful Stalin’s Soviet Union was, a least one investigative reporter uncovered the horror of collectivist tyranny and presented it to an indifferent world. Of course, you won’t read about any of this in the MSM.

  18. Dumb prediction of the day: Spike in U.S. COVID-19 cases will continue to threaten the nascent economic recovery.

    1. There is no “nascent recovery.” There is only the Fed pumping trillions of funny money into the financial system in a doomed attempt to defer the inevitable financial reckoning day.

      1. When you pump more than $3 TRILLION over the course of several weeks, it has a major effect on asset prices.

        1. Right.

          Which gets back to some questions I keep pondering:

          1) Can they keep pumping liquidity at that pace?

          2) If not, what will happen to asset prices when they slow down?

      1. I hope they are right, because I am greatly missing so many activities that enriched my pre-COVID-19 Stay-at-Home order existence.

        I had a telephone call visit with my doctor last week, who claimed that a negative antibody test such as I had is not conclusive evidence of not having had the disease.

        1. This issue is that there are several components to the immune system, all of which fight COVID. Those who were asymptomatic seem to use the T-cell immunity (usually younger people), which is effective on the virus but 1) it takes 3 weeks of spread and 2) doesn’t confer any antibody immunity. For all we know, these (younger) people are being reinfected constantly but they just keep spreading it and fighting it off with no symptoms. I guess that could go on for years.

          Those (older) folks who have symptoms are more likely to fight the disease with antibodies, and retain some immunity for several months. And for the unfortunate people who go to ICU, T-cells and antibodies failed and they are resorting to cytokine storm, which is bad. Problem is, we don’t know who is going to use which type of immunity. Probably something to do with the co-morbidities and vitamin deficiencies.

          I’ve seen very little research on the immunity end of this, but I hope the smart people in the white coats are working on it.

    1. Love that song, one of my favorite for the 4th, especially when I lived in Socal and every celebration was filled with third worlders that left their trash everywhere.

  19. I have to wonder how well California housing will hold up over the next several years against the backdrop of a ‘Nike swoosh’ recovery that is already facing an early interruption due to the recent spike in California COVID-19 cases.

    1. Business
      California’s economic recovery will be like a slow ‘Nike swoosh’
      People at the Universal CityWalk
      Economists predict a slow economic recovery at tourist venues like Universal CityWalk, where signs this month cautioned visitors to distance themselves from one another.
      (Mark J. Terrill / Associated Press)
      By Margot Roosevelt
      Staff Writer
      June 24, 2020
      1 AM

      California is unlikely to recover its pre-coronavirus prosperity over the next three years, economists say, even as the state slowly rebuilds from a catastrophic economic lockdown.

      The Golden State’s gradual recovery will probably mirror the nation’s trajectory, according to a new UCLA forecast.

      “The public health crisis of the pandemic morphed into a depression-like crisis in the [U.S.] economy,” wrote David Shulman, a senior economist at UCLA Anderson Forecast.

      The trajectory of the nation’s economy will be like a “Nike swoosh,” Shulman wrote: Real gross domestic product will plunge this quarter — at a 42% annual rate — and then gradually rise, not returning to its late-2019 peak until early 2023.

    2. Rioting and looting in public for the BLM cause is OK, but singing in church is not.

      Health & Medicine
      Houses of worship told to ‘discontinue singing’ under order from Newsom as pandemic worsens
      By Dale Kasler
      July 02, 2020 04:26 PM , Updated 1 hour 13 minutes ago
      California Governor Gavin Newsom outlined coronavirus guidelines for Fourth of July weekend at a press conference on July 1, 2020. The state will close state beach parking facilities in Southern California and the Bay Area.

      Californians are still free to attend their house of worship. But they’re not supposed to sing or chant.

      Citing the risk of spreading the coronavirus, updated COVID-19 guidelines issued Wednesday by the state Department of Public Health say “places of worship must therefore discontinue singing and chanting activities.”

      In previously allowing religious organizations to reopen in late May, the state merely said these institutions should “strongly consider discontinuing singing, group recitation, and other practices and performances.”

      Health agencies such as the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention say shouting or singing can spread the coronavirus just as easily as coughing or sneezing.

      California’s health department agrees, and as Gov. Gavin Newsom begins tightening protocols during a resurgence of the pandemic, it now says singing and chanting are outright banned.

      “Activities such as singing and chanting negate the risk reduction achieved through six feet of physical distancing,” the state said in its new guidelines.

    3. California Coronavirus Update: Governor Gavin Newsom Reveals Recent 56 Percent Increase In Hospitalizations, Says State Will “Lean In” On Enforcement If Businesses Don’t Comply
      By Tom Tapp
      July 2, 2020 12:55pm

      On Thursday at the top of his coronavirus press conference California Governor Gavin Newsom said “masks keep people healthy.” He then went on to detail the announcements, PSAs and other campaigns the state has undertaken to try and get residents to wear their masks.

      The governor revealed on Thursday that the state had seen 4,056 new positive cases in the past 24 hours. Test positivity rate in California has risen to 6.3 percent over the past two weeks, he said. Over the last seven days that number has jumped to 6.9 percent. “This is why we have the mask mandate,” Newsom said.

      “We’re going to see hospitalizations begin to spike as a lagging indicator,” he then warned.

      Indeed they have. The governor reported a 56 percent increase over a two week period. Also concerning: ICU bed occupation is up 43 percent over the same term.

    4. How is California’s dependence on itinerant farm workers holding up to the pandemic?

      1. Farmworker housing outbreak: 188 test positive for COVID-19
        ERIN RODE
        Ventura County Star
        18 hours ago

        One day last week, dozens of farmworkers on H-2A visas staying at Villa Las Brisas were packing their things to leave the country the following day.

        Instead, county health workers arrived and tested all 216 people staying at the farmworker housing facility after two people there tested positive for the coronavirus. By Tuesday, 176 workers had tested positive in one of the largest coronavirus outbreaks among farmworkers in the state. As of Friday, 188 workers were positive for the virus, according to Ventura County Public Health Director Rigoberto Vargas.

    5. So long as July 4th gatherings are held in the name of the BLM movement, participants will be granted temporary immunity to COVID-19.

      L.A. Protests Draw Thousands Hours after Gov. Newsom Prohibited Fourth of July Gatherings
      By Zachary Evans
      July 2, 2020 1:22 PM
      (Screenshot via Twitter)

      A protest in Los Angeles on July 1 drew thousands of people hours after California governor Gavin Newsom discouraged residents from holding Independence Day gatherings with anyone outside an immediate household.

      A photo published by the LAPD showed protesters standing shoulder to shoulder, with many wearing masks. Los Angeles has seen a resurgence of coronavirus cases over the past week, leading some businesses to reduce or shut operations.

      1. On second thought, perhaps attending BLM protests doesn’t actually confer COVID-19 immunity.

        Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti now admits protests in the city DID lead to a spike in coronavirus cases after he previously insisted there was no link
        By Karen Ruiz For 00:28 EDT 03 Jul 2020 , updated 18:49 EDT 03 Jul 2020
        – Mayor Eric Garcetti said some people have not been protesting safely
        – He confirmed LA County health officials believe recent demonstrations have contributed to a spike in COVID-19 cases in the city
        – Garcetti noted that some protesters have not been wearing masks or keeping a safe distance from others when gathering in mass
        – The mayor previously said there was no evidence showing a link between protests and new cases

        Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti has admitted recent protests and mass demonstrations have led to a spike in coronavirus cases in the city.

        Garcetti revealed during a press conference on Wednesday that LA County health officials believe some of the new COVID-19 cases may have come from large groups of people gathering at rallies.

        1. California
          First LAPD officer dies of COVID-19
          LAPD headquarters in downtown Los Angeles.
          (Al Seib / Los Angeles Times)
          By Jack Dolan Staff Writer
          July 4, 2020
          4:01 PM

          The Los Angeles Police Department lost its first employee to COVID-19, department officials announced on Saturday.

          Senior Detention Officer Erica McAdoo died from complications of the disease on Friday night, according to a tweet from the department’s official account. Another 287 LAPD employees are currently quarantined at home after having been exposed to the novel coronavirus, according to the tweet.

          A department spokesman declined to say how old McAdoo was or whether she had any of the underlying health conditions that are usually present in cases that turn fatal.

          COVID-19 cases among department employees spiked dramatically in late June, leading Chief Michel Moore to attribute at least some of the increase at the time to the “challenging conditions” officers faced during protests sparked by the death of George Floyd.

      2. Portlandia tore down the statue of an elk and destroyed it this week. Yes, a statue of an animal.

        George Floyd would be so proud of all of you.

          1. Aren’t they all?

            Elk are the reason I knew more than most of my fellow soldiers about what it’s really like to kill big mammals at a distance. How you can screw up and miss in the heat of the moment even if you are good with a gun. How they vibrate like a drum when you hit them, allowing you to hear a hit if you know what to listen for (and your ears are still working a second or two after firing). How some collapse on the spot and some get back up like nothing happened and then go down seconds or minutes later. How they can still attack you when you get close even though you were sure they were dead. Luckily for me I never needed any of that during my time in the army. But I still like the way my mom cooks elk as long as they weren’t very old. Burning an elk statue is one of the stupidest things I’ve ever seen. All it tells me is that there’s no point in reasoning with the people who would do it. And it’s critical to never be at their mercy.

          2. I have a friend who is a vet. He swears by elk hunting as one of his peak experiences.

          3. Well, the BPOE were until 1973. I expect that there are still some hard feelings about that on both sides.

          4. All it tells me is that there’s no point in reasoning with the people who would do it. And it’s critical to never be at their mercy.

            Crazy people are dangerous.

        1. From what I read, the statue was removed to protect it, as its base was damaged by a fire.

          I’ve also read that some of the old California missions have removed and stored statues that were formerly displayed outdoors.

          1. Oh yeah, right. Because it seems that Pasre Junípero Serra somehow made it onto the BLM hate list.

            These people are Idiots with a capital I.

          2. I expect that any Saint’s statue is considered fair game by BLM. Stained glass windows too. I wonder if BLM will try to desecrate interiors, or steal and destroy consecrated hosts.

          3. I wonder if police will try to protect property against destruction by BLM forces, only to face trial by the MSM for racist policing?

        2. The same ilk who spray painted Red Rocks, causing permanent damage. I guess they didn’t like the name? The rocks themselves have been around longer than the Rockies.

          1. No white man’s statue is sacred or safe from the BLM marauders.

            Or anybody else’s statue either, as far as I can tell. Apparently the organization responsible (I don’t think it’s actually BLM) could also be called All Statues Suck (A.S.S.).

      3. An experience from a century ago offers a cautionary tale for those who believe mass BLM demonstrations are a COVID-19 safe experience.

        Philadelphia Threw a WWI Parade That Gave Thousands of Onlookers the Flu
        The city sought to sell bonds to pay for the war effort, while bringing its citizens together during the infamous pandemic
        By Kenneth C. Davis
        September 21, 2018

        It was a parade like none Philadelphia had ever seen.

        In the summer of 1918, as the Great War raged and American doughboys fell on Europe’s killing fields, the City of Brotherly Love organized a grand spectacle. To bolster morale and support the war effort, a procession for the ages brought together marching bands, Boy Scouts, women’s auxiliaries, and uniformed troops to promote Liberty Loans –government bonds issued to pay for the war. The day would be capped off with a concert led by the “March King” himself –John Philip Sousa.

        When the Fourth Liberty Loan Drive parade stepped off on September 28, some 200,000 people jammed Broad Street, cheering wildly as the line of marchers stretched for two miles. Floats showcased the latest addition to America’s arsenal – floating biplanes built in Philadelphia’s Navy Yard. Brassy tunes filled the air along a route where spectators were crushed together like sardines in a can. Each time the music stopped, bond salesmen singled out war widows in the crowd, a move designed to evoke sympathy and ensure that Philadelphia met its Liberty Loan quota.

        But aggressive Liberty Loan hawkers were far from the greatest threat that day. Lurking among the multitudes was an invisible peril known as influenza—and it loves crowds. Philadelphians were exposed en masse to a lethal contagion widely called “Spanish Flu,” a misnomer created earlier in 1918 when the first published reports of a mysterious epidemic emerged from a wire service in Madrid.

      4. California
        L.A. County sees ‘alarming’ rise in coronavirus hospitalizations, infection rates
        Spectators watch the OneHB Parade, a modified parade in Huntington Beach that let many residents watch the procession from their neighborhoods, a change from the usual Fourth of July Parade on the city’s Main Street.
        (Gary Coronado / Los Angeles Times)
        By Rong-Gong Lin II Staff Writer
        July 4, 2020
        8:51 PM

        In what officials Saturday described as an “alarming” increase, hospitalizations of patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in Los Angeles County have jumped 41% in the last three weeks.

        On Friday, there were 1,947 patients in L.A. County hospitals with confirmed coronavirus infections; seven days earlier, there were 1,717; the week before that, there were 1,426; and the week prior to that, there were 1,383.

        The number of patients with confirmed coronavirus infections in the intensive care unit are up 35% in the last two weeks; on Saturday, 549 people were in the ICU; last Saturday there were 446, and the week before that there were 408.

        On Monday, L.A. County officials warned about “alarming increases in cases, positivity rates and hospitalization” and projected the possibility of running out of hospital beds in two to three weeks; the number of ICU beds could be exhausted sometime in July.

        The county warned healthcare providers that officials are “concerned that acute care hospitals will need to begin implementing decompression plans and prepare for another wave of cases.”

        The spike in coronavirus cases around the state has sparked alarm.

    1. Unless people wise up and rise up in large numbers against the FED and politicians, this is our future.

  20. I live in the Sacramento, California area and the real estate market has been insane lately even with layoffs and COVID-19! Homes go pending quickly with multiple offers over asking price for homes under $1 million due to low inventory and low interest rates. Places like Folsom, Fair Oaks and Carmichael further away from downtown Sacramento have same issue because of wealthy people who work at INTEL and SUTTER and make 200k a year. Plus viewing homes is a nightmare with no more open houses and having to wear hazmat gear and private appointments. Will this madness ever end?

    1. Will this madness ever end?

      It’ll end if/when the homes that nobody is making payments on hit the market. There are a lot of forces that will try to prevent this from happening for as long as possible. But yes, this area is slower than most because there are still a lot of people employed here who are actually doing better financially than they were before covid. And not many houses being put up for sale as long as they can be lived in for free. As a result the builders don’t seem to be cutting any special deals either.

      1. It’ll end if/when the homes that nobody is making payments on hit the market. There are a lot of forces that will try to prevent this from happening for as long as possible.

        These forces – these people – need to be destroyed.

  21. My prediction is that any prediction I could make is probably wrong. The unexpected happens. Who could have predicted in January what has happened over the last 6 months?

    1. I already knew back in October when I dumped most of the stock from my portfolio. As of the first week of April I am 100% out of stocks. You can keep your sucker rally, and I’ll stay rich, thank you.

      1. I went very lean on stocks late last year and remain so. I doubt the sustainability of a rally based on a historically unprecedented level of monetary intervention.

    2. Oxide and I were onto something by the end of January. And AlbuquerqueDan blew a gasket over the discussion that sprang up.

      1. Professor Bear
        January 31, 2020 at 1:01 pm

        This is why the current coronavirus outbreak may prove much more problematic and economically disruptive than SARS was to contain.

        ‘There’s no doubt’: Top US infectious disease doctor says Wuhan coronavirus can spread even when people have no symptoms
        By Elizabeth Cohen and John Bonifield, CNN
        Updated 12:40 PM ET, Fri January 31, 2020

        (CNN) The nation’s top infectious disease doctor says a new study published Thursday night shows people can spread the Wuhan coronavirus before symptoms set in.

        German researchers found that the virus was transmitted by people without symptoms in five instances in one cluster of people: from a parent to a daughter; from that daughter to two colleagues; and from one of those colleagues to two other coworkers.

        “There’s no doubt after reading this paper that asymptomatic transmission is occurring,” said Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases. “This study lays the question to rest.”

        January 31, 2020 at 1:39 pm

        OK, *now* it’s time to lower the Defcon.

      2. Oxide and I were onto something by the end of January.

        My cases of MREs arrived about a week before the end of January just in case. I’m happy to have not needed them so far.

      3. Yup. I remember right around New Year’s day, one of the people at my church (a nurse) said “There’s a new virus in China,” which would prick up the ears of even a casual prepper. So I went back to the prepper youtube videos from years ago on how to prep for a pandemic. Answer: N-95 masks, food, and supplies for a long-term bug-in. I have no shortage of food or TP, but I’ve been rationing the masks because I don’t have that many.

        Pro-tip: bake the masks in the oven at 200 F for 30 minutes, which will disinfect them without harming the filtration. They are good for up to 20 bake cycles.

  22. Big cities with lots of rioting will see prices fall. Small cities with little rioting will see prices increase.

  23. Yakima county in central Washington has more Wuhan Flu cases than all of Oregon even though the population is a mere 240k. Yakima is also over 50% Hispanic.

    Make of that statistic what you will. I know the MSM in Seattle certainly would never dare mention it.

    1. Same goes for Hispanic areas of San Diego. Case rates are up to ten times as high as predominately white areas.

        News Briefs July 3, 2020
        July 3, 2020

        New SANDAG report finds Black and Hispanic communities hardest hit by COVID-19

        As the San Diego region’s labor market continues to experience a historic decline, Black and Hispanic communities are most impacted, according to a new SANDAG Data Science and Analytics report, “COVID-19 Impact on the San Diego Regional Economy: Black and Hispanic Communities Hardest Hit.”

  24. I predict that crazy people will continue to exercise their non-white-male privilege to destroy what others hold sacred, and the liberal biased MSM will tacitly voice their approval by failing to support the rule of law which deems acts of property destruction illegal.

    1. Huckabee: “Crazy people” who want to remove statues of “white” Jesus are “trying to erase history”
      Huckabee tells Fox that the “real challenge” facing the world is “a culture that doesn’t understand its history”
      David Edwards
      June 23, 2020 4:00PM (UTC)
      This article originally appeared on Raw Story

      Ordained minister and former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee (R) complained on Tuesday that Black Lives Matter activists are trying to erase “history” by calling for the removal of statues depicting a “white” Jesus Christ.

      During a discussion on Fox Business, host Stuart Varney was taken aback by a tweet from activist Shaun King, who argued: “The statues of the white European they claim is Jesus should also come down.”

    1. Fourth of July: Why this Independence Day will be unlike any other
      2 July 2020
      Scenes like this are unlikely as the US faces a spike in coronavirus cases

      For millions of Americans, celebrating 4 July comes with certain rituals and traditions.

      Parades, public fireworks displays and large family reunions are some of the most popular ways Americans mark the nation’s independence from Britain in 1776.

      But this year is set to look a little different. Here’s why.

      1) Cancelled parades

      Sadly, it looks like the floats will have to stay in the garage this year.

      Cities around the US have cancelled their annual parades as cases of coronavirus continue to rise. The National Independence Day Parade in Washington DC is the highest-profile casualty.

      5) Protests and politics

      Beyond the pandemic, the US has also been rocked by another major news event this year.

      The death of African American George Floyd in police custody in May triggered nationwide protests and led to renewed demands for an end to institutional racism. Many of these protests targeted statues of controversial historical figures.

      Now, some officials are concerned that Independence Day could see further clashes at monuments and sites.

      1. A thought occurred to me that when your a immigrant ,if you refuse to learn the language or assimilate into the majority culture, aren’t you creating your own prejudice because you are prejudice against the culture and traditions you moved to?
        All the immigrants that came to Ellis Island wanted to become American.

        Being white, if I went to Africa and I expected the Africans Majority to give up their culture for me because I was a minority, they would laugh at the absurdly of the notion. And than as a minority white I demanded they tear down their black statues and heros they would throw me in jail or deem me insane.

        Now, if the black community is saying they don’t like white culture or values, than do your own thing. But, the complaint is that the Majority culture has to give up what they are so blacks can be whatever they are.

        If a person wasn’t born with a silver spoon in their mouth, it’s likely they will have to work hard to get ahead, or develope a skill, regardless of race.

        What’s going on right now is class warfare, not racism. Look at all the USA white jobs that were outsourced to India, the Chinese, Mexicans and other races other than White Americans.
        Look at how many qualified whites we’re denied jobs because of affirmative action. Look at the trillons handed out in welfare for the last 50 years to minorities.
        It’s all BS.

        1. “Look at the trillons handed out in welfare for the last 50 years to minorities.
          It’s all BS.”

          Will the cumulative value of welfare payments to African Americans over the past half century be subtracted from the demanded reparations?

        2. “Look at the trillons handed out in welfare for the last 50 years to minorities.”

          The Economist cited a study years ago that compared the costs of social welfare payments vs money spent for security, e.g., bars on windows, high walls topped with barbed wire, armed guards, etc., and the study concluded that the social welfare payments cost society much less.

  25. “And if the widely anticipated recession comes to pass, you can stick a fork in US housing demand.”

    Could the Fed save the market from a collapse in fundamental demand?

    I guess time will tell…

  26. Prediction: The virus outbreak will become much more widespread before it goes away.

    1. Health and Science
      World Health Organization reports new coronavirus cases reach all-time high
      Published Sat, Jul 4 2020 4:30 PM EDT
      Megan Graham
      – The number of new Covid-19 cases has reached a new high at 212,326 cases in 24 hours.
      – The report says there have been more than 10.9 million cases total.
      – The biggest increase reported Saturday occurred in North and South America, which saw 129,772 new cases in the last 24 hours, bringing the total in the region to nearly 5.58 million.

  27. MLB
    Published July 04, 2020
    Last Update 11 hrs ago
    31 MLB players, 7 staff test positive for COVID-19, or 1.2%
    By Associated Press

    Thirty-one Major League Baseball players and seven staff members tested positive for COVID-19 during intake for the resumption of training, a rate of 1.2%.

    MLB and the players’ association announced the results Friday as teams resumed workouts for the first time since the coronavirus interrupted spring training on March 12, two weeks before the season was to start. Opening day has been reset for July 23, the latest in baseball history, and the regular season has been reduced to 60 games in the shortest schedule since 1878.

    The positive tests occurred among 19 of the 30 teams, according to results of the samples sent to the Sports Medicine Research and Testing Laboratory in South Jordan, Utah. There were 3,185 samples collected and tested through the first week of intake testing.

    Individual players who test positive are not identified by MLB or the union. Cleveland outfielder Delino DeShields Jr. gave the Indians permission to say he tested positive.

  28. If U.S. birth rates seemed historically low in recent years, just wait…you ain’t seen nothing yet.

    And if not obvious, birth rates are a leading indicator of future housing demand.

    1. Note the data on which the article I am posting below is based precedes the effects of COVID-19 on marriage and birth rates.

      Perhaps an economic recovery policy of pricing the next generation of young households out of the market for starter homes wasn’t such a great idea?

      U.S. Birthrates Fall to Record Low
      Last year’s data are another sign of how American childbearing, which began declining during the 2007-09 recession, never fully rebounded
      By Janet Adamy
      May 20, 2020 12:01 am ET

      American women had babies at record-low rates last year and pushed U.S. births down to their smallest total in 35 years, according to federal figures released Wednesday.

      About 3.75 million babies were born in the U.S. in 2019, down 1% from the prior year, provisional figures from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s National Center for Health Statistics showed. The general fertility rate fell 2% to 58.2 births per 1,000 women aged 15 to 44, its lowest level since the government began tracking the figure in 1909.

    2. Report
      Half a million fewer children? The coming COVID baby bust
      Melissa S. Kearney and Phillip Levine Monday, June 15, 2020

      The COVID-19 episode will likely lead to a large, lasting baby bust. The pandemic has thrust the country into an economic recession. Economic reasoning and past evidence suggest that this will lead people to have fewer children. The decline in births could be on the order of 300,000 to 500,000 fewer births next year. We base this expectation on lessons drawn from economic studies of fertility behavior, along with data presented here from the Great Recession of 2007-2009 and the 1918 Spanish Flu.

    3. Marriages are another leading indicator of future birth rates, and COVID-19 could have a further chilling effect on the rate at which young people in the U.S. get married. For starters, it’s hard for college kids to get to know potential future life partners while social distancing and completing online coursework.

      1. U.S. Marriage Rate Hits Historic Low
        It’s too early to know the impact the coronavirus pandemic will have, but data shows significant shifts in the country’s marriage rate have occurred around major historical events.
        By Gaby Galvin, Staff Writer 
        April 29, 2020
        U.S. News & World Report
        ARLINGTON, VIRGINIA – APRIL 18: Newly married Tyler and Caryn Suiters embrace following their marriage ceremony performed by Rev. Andrew Merrow in an otherwise empty St. Mary’s Episcopal Church April 18, 2020 in Arlington, Virginia. Rev. Merrow and his wife Cameron Merrow were the only other attendees at the ceremony due to social distancing guidelines implemented in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic. (Photo by Win McNamee/Getty Images)
        The U.S. marriage rate fell to the lowest level on record in 2018. (Win McNamee/Getty Images)

        The U.S. marriage rate reached a historic low in 2018, according to federal data spanning more than a century.

        Social and economic shifts in the U.S. are visible through the lens of the country’s marriage rate, measured as the number of marriages per 1,000 people. That rate has fluctuated since the early 1900s, most notably around times of great historical significance, according to the report from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

        1. U.S.
          U.S. Marriage Rate Plunges to Lowest Level on Record
          Strained finances have Americans forming households without tying the knot
          By Janet Adamy
          April 29, 2020 12:01 am ET

          WASHINGTON—The share of Americans getting married has fallen to its lowest level on record, according to government figures released Wednesday that reflect how economic insecurity and changing norms are eroding the institution.

          The U.S. marriage rate fell 6% in 2018, with 6.5 new unions formed for every 1,000 people, according to a report by the National Center for Health Statistics. That was the lowest rate since the federal government began keeping records in 1867, said Sally Curtin, a statistician at the Center and lead author.

      2. “Marriages are another leading indicator of future birth rates, and COVID-19 could have a further chilling effect on the rate at which young people in the U.S. get married.”

        I drove through several Jupiter Fl. neighborhoods yesteryear inhabited by well predominantly undocumented immigrants while I was looking for an affordable (doesn’t exist anywhere in Jupiter FL.) rental for someone.

        The current and future birth rates in these neighborhoods alone is enough to keep the population in this area growing for far more than the foreseeable future.

        1. Low native U.S. birth rates do open up the door to immigrants, undocumented or otherwise, to fill the demographic void.

          1. Low native U.S. birth rates do open up the door to immigrants, undocumented or otherwise, to fill the demographic void.

            Because the 1% WILL get their cheap labor even if the natives strike.

        2. predominantly undocumented immigrants

          These immigrants are quite rich compared to the typical American Debt Donkey and can better afford to raise children.

          1. That’s certainly true in our slice of the country. The top academic achievers in our kids’ high school were the children of Asian immigrants, primarily Indian and Chinese.

          2. can better afford to raise children

            Many have become quite adept at milking the system: work under the table, pay no taxes, get guberment bennies (section 8, SNAP. Mediacaid), etc.

  29. I predict a massive wealth redistribution ahead from U.S. households who stood clear of the unprecedented low interest borrowing binge since the post-2007-through-2009 recession to those who participated in the binge as borrowers and lenders. The redistribution will be executed without fanfare through stealth measures, such as the Fed purchasing securitized debt and burying it forever on its endlessly expanding balance sheet.

    1. The redistribution will be executed without fanfare through stealth measures, such as the Fed purchasing securitized debt and burying it forever on its endlessly expanding balance sheet.

      This makes me see red. It’s criminal.

  30. Health and Science
    Official U.S. coronavirus death toll is ‘a substantial undercount’ of actual tally, Yale study finds
    Published Wed, Jul 1 2020 11:41 AM EDT
    Updated Thu, Jul 2 2020 9:11 AM EDT
    Berkeley Lovelace Jr.
    Key Points
    – The 781,000 total deaths in the U.S. in the three months through May 30 were nearly 19% higher than what would normally be expected, the study said.
    – The number of excess deaths from any causes were 28% higher than the official tally of U.S. Covid-19 deaths during those months.

    A man who died from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is wrapped in a body bag at the United Memorial Medical Center’s coronavirus disease (COVID-19) intensive care unit in Houston, Texas, U.S., June 29, 2020.
    Callaghan O’Hare | Reuters

    The number of confirmed U.S. deaths due to the coronavirus is substantially lower than the true tally, according to a study published Wednesday in JAMA Internal Medicine.

    Using National Center for Health Statistics data, researchers at Yale University compared the number of excess U.S. deaths from any causes with the reported number of weekly U.S. Covid-19 deaths from March 1 through May 30. The numbers were then compared with deaths from the same period in previous years.

    1. The Sunday Morning Network Propaganda shows are with you Professor.

      They are Full blast big guns All Corna All the Time this morning as they try to push the nation (especially Red States) back behind closed doors.

      Funny thing, ABC Good Morning America started their 7 am show condemning the Trump 4th of July speech and the “mostly maskless crowd”…

      “We are now in the process of defeating the radical left, the Marxists, the anarchists, the agitators, the looters, and people who in many instances have absolutely no clue what they are doing,”

      while cutting away in the middle of the segment and cheering (change in voice and attitude) a large crowd of “Protesters” in Baltimore pulling down a Christopher Columbus statue and dumping it in the Bay.

      1. I’m not a movement, and I generally disdain politics. If you are saying they want to reopen the country in a way that doesn’t result in over a million new COVID-19 deaths and more economic shutdowns ahead, then that’s great.

        1. over a million new COVID-19 deaths

          I don’t see how that is remotely possible with this bug. It didn’t happen in April and there hasn’t been any uptick here in front running NY as a result of re-opening. It’s been six weeks I think, which is many multiple incubation periods for a virus.

          1. 125,000 deaths in 4 months

            125,000 × 8 = 1,000,000

            8 × 4 = 32 months = 2 years 8 months at an average rate equal to the first four months would do it.

            And there is no law of nature that says the death rate cannot increase from what it was in the first four months of the outbreak. Remember back in January when AlbuquerqueDan insisted that Americans were not going to die of COVID-19?

          2. 32 months

            The epidemic died out in NY after a little over 2 months. It is insignificant now. No reason to believe there will be April-May death rates for the next two years.

          3. It’s important to recognize that what happened over the past few months was under rather extreme quarantine measures in most parts of the U.S. Places that are reopening are already seeing a big surge in COVID-19 cases, and beginning to reverse course almost as soon as the reopenings were announced.

            Hopefully we’ll soon figure out how to get the economy going again without overwhelming the medical system with new ICU admissions, but we’re not there yet.

          4. Another inconvenient fact is that while the New York outbreak has died down for now, other parts of the U.S. are currently experiencing a big spike in new cases. On balance, we’ve experienced the fastest increase in new cases over thecourse of the outbreak within the past few days.

            I don’t claim to know what the eventual effect on deaths will be, as this seems unpredictable.

          5. One thing was different in NY in April. People were being tested on admission to the hospital and it took a week to get the test results back. Positive tests, admissions and deaths all peaked in the same week, the first week of April.

            I know a healthy young man who got tested last week and he had his results the next day.

            For these late to the game places, how long after an explosion of positive tests should one be vigilant while deaths do not inch up perceptibly?

    2. How can anyone trust stats from Gov. agencies anymore?

      I feel like powerful forces are trying to con me constantly. You look at the way news is reported and how the same facts are reported on so differently and it’s just a joke.

      But, you would think people would be turned off at watching how oppressive Big Government is. The hell children who think Communism would be so great have no idea how oppressive it would be..

    3. the number of excess U.S. deaths

      Typical deaths in the US run around 2.8 million a year +/- 1%. That’s a variability of about 30,000 per year. The CDC has reported excess deaths YTD of around 60,000. So the statistically significant extra number we’ve lost was 30,000, out of 325,000,000.

      The good news is that we are now below the “excess” line. All of that “1 more person dying out of 10,000” is behind us for now. Whew!

      Sadly, estimates are that 55,000 of those who died with Covid were the ones we shut up in nursing homes. Without them, there weren’t any excess deaths. Ironically, our reaction is to keep healthy people from working and playing. Is there any talk of changing anything about nursing homes?

      1. One challenge: You need young healthy people to run nursing homes and retirement care communities. If the COVID-19 rate is high enough among the young, COVID-19 can find its way in. It already has happened in the care community where my parents live, not to mention the one a short walk from where we live.

  31. We celebrated a family birthday last night by dining out. The floor was never more than 10 percent occupied the entire time of our visit. The staff may even have outnumbered the customers. And I didn’t see a lot of carryout activity, either. Their situation seems unsustainable.

    1. Went to Smashburger for an early dinner. Was alone eating on the outdoor patio. Saw some takeout activity, but it wasn’t busy at all (the mom n pop Mexican place I like is far busier). After that was a stop at Daz Bog (Starbucks clone). Also a ghost town, though it was closing time.

      It does feel unsustainable.

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