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Housing Bubble Predictions For 2021

What are your housing bubble predictions for the new year? Six moths ago: “I think (conservatively) in this area we are long overdue for a 15% – 25% price correction overall, just based on inability of household incomes to keep up with housing price inflation. Sellers who do manage to make it to closing now are for the most part taking significant beatings at the table, especially for properties above $300K – $350K.”

“What will be interesting to see will be whether or not there will be structural change in location desirability from the pandemic. Will higher density urban living still be preferable to suburban / rural and continue to drive higher prices in trendy ‘downtown’ areas?”

One said, “”I expect out-of-state owners of beachfront rental property in Hawaii to continue to regret their investment decision.”

Another, “My prediction is that any prediction I could make is probably wrong. The unexpected happens. Who could have predicted in January what has happened over the last 6 months?”

From one year ago: My husband insists we buy in overpriced Ann Arbor this year, so I predict intense strife in my life. I wanted to buy in 2013 but he was a little unsure about his work. Just after that things started getting overpriced again and we’re old and I don’t want to blow the money we’ve saved by renting cheaply on an overpriced PoS shack but we have to leave our current good deal rental. It’s still cheaper to rent than buy even as high as rents are here, and there is so so much new housing coming in that despite apparent area job growth I can’t believe it is sustainable. Nothing I say works. Should I just divorce and thusly force a change of his plans lol?!”

Another said: “Albuquerquedan: I see a high tech stock correction particularly companies who chronically lose money or just barely breakeven with accounting tricks.”

The Globe and Mail. “Frothy equity markets have spurred a rush of initial public offerings, and the frenzy is helping investors gloss over one crucial piece of information: Many of the newly traded Canadian companies lose money. Sometimes, in fact, lots of it. With North American equity markets trading around record highs and interest rates next to zero, it is understandable that investors are hungry to own stocks. Yet this fervour for IPOs raises questions as to whether investors even care about profits anymore.”

“Even some stars of the 2019 IPO class have made their names without ever focusing on profit. The investor craze partly stems from a venture-capital mentality that has bled into public markets. Another culprit: ‘There’s so much money in the system,’ said John O’Connell, chief executive officer of money manager Davis Rea. There is cash everywhere these days, and money managers often want to park it in a new home.”

“For the new class of IPOs, it is too soon to know which will thrive and which will fail. With the cost of debt so affordable, companies can easily borrow money to fund new deals that give them longer lifelines – even if no profits materialize in the near-term. ‘Some will survive,’ said Bruce Murray, CEO of the Murray Wealth Group, ‘and, probably, most will lose.'”

“But convincing investors of that can feel impossible. The reason why, Mr. Murray said, is that ‘losers are quickly forgotten.’ ‘I don’t know when it ends,’ said Mr. O’Connell of Davis Rea. ‘We are in the teeth of a frenzy.'”

From Forbes. “We have all heard the phrase ‘history repeats itself!’ Yet, very few people seriously apply long-term history to manage their investments. There is no better example of this than how the majority of modern day investors, the most knowledgeable and technologically advanced in history, mishandled jaw dropping 40% stock market drops in the ‘Panics’ of 1987 & 2020, or the 50% ‘Bear Markets’ during the 1999 ‘Dot.com’ bubble and the Great Recession of 2008.”

“Regardless of the century – the story is the same. Throughout the preceding bull markets, the phrase ‘It’s different this time!’ was used repeatedly by Wall Street’s top pros and investors keep buying without ever realizing that their odds of continued success would be considered long in Las Vegas.”

“Does this sound familiar? ‘The Federal Reserve is much blamed because it made money easy’ and ‘The real fault is that too many investors are eager to grab something for nothing’ No, it wasn’t written in 1999 about tech stocks or 2007 about real estate securities. It came out of a business publication in January 1929!”

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    1. The Mechanics Behind the Electronic Vote Steal Operation

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/OJrljwQFcIvc/

      https://twitter.com/tom2badcat/status/1325126091460268032

      https://archive.vn/KPwUa

      https://everylegalvote.com/country

      https://hereistheevidence.com/

      “Dominion-izing the Vote”

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/qlEUbPLvW98w/

      Eric Coomer Explains How To Alter Votes In The Dominion Voting System

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UtB3tLaXLJE

      Eric Coomer, Dominion’s head of product and strategy, has disappeared.

      ‘Representatives from Dominion also did not attend a court hearing in Pennsylvania on November 19. Its US headquarters in Denver was also suddenly closed and moved away. Their employees deleted their names from LinkedIn.’

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0oYQeeNCzZM

      https://www.theepochtimes.com/poll-watcher-describes-pennsylvania-election-irregularities-including-47-missing-usb-cards_3594549.html

      Here’s the testimony on video:

      “Baggies of USBs” – PA Witness Gives Explosive Testimony

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/AdaglXlcuqYt/

      Dem Ballot Inspector Says She Was Threatened with Violence for Speaking Up About Suspicious Activity

      “The majority inspector threatened to slap me in the face,” said Olivia Jane Winters, a registered Democrat and minority ballot inspector in Pennsylvania, testifying to Pennsylvania State Republicans Wednesday that she had been threatened and harassed by other election officials after she asked about suspicious activities during the 2020 election.’

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/_KrpyDlHTe8/

      Crowd Gasps after Finding out about Absurd Spike of Votes in Favor of Biden

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/jmNUAx8wQYdO/

      Sen. Doug Mastriano closing remarks PA state legislature meeting.

      https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PIqujobvDFI

      https://censoredbyjack.com/channel/evidence-of-widespread-election-fraud

      https://www.deepcapture.com/2020/11/election-2020-was-rigged-the-evidence/

      ”We began to look and realized how easy it is to change votes.”

      ‘Election security expert @RussRamsland
      has performed many investigations on US election machines.’

      ‘The most *shocking* thing about this interview is it took place just days BEFORE the election. Watch’

      https://twitter.com/kylenabecker/status/1327511568993701888

      Col Phil Waldron Confirms Experts Witnessed Dominion Communicating with Frankfurt on Election Day

      https://www.bitchute.com/video/n7j5lg9fYyzz/

      Dominion forensic report from Michigan (PDF):

      https://www.depernolaw.com/uploads/2/7/0/2/27029178/antrim_michigan_forensics_report_%5B121320%5D_v2_%5Bredacted%5D.pdf

      1. ‘KRAKEN is DOD cyber warfare program.’

        ‘They cheated & got caught!’

        Sidney Powell
        🇺🇸
        ‘Who knew?’

        https://twitter.com/SidneyPowell1/status/1331435411286192128?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1331435411286192128%7Ctwgr%5E%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fheadlines360.news%2F2020%2F11%2F24%2Fsidney-powells-kraken-is-department-of-defense-cyber-warfare-program%2F

        I did some digging around and found this (WARNING) PDF:

        https://www.dacis.com/budget/budget_pdf/FY20/RDTE/F/1203110F_294.pdf

        It’s dated Feb. 2019. If you word search Kraken (‘respond’ category), you’ll find it twice on page 4. This unit 305 person is in the affidavits in Powells lawsuit.

        WARNING PDF with filing:

        https://www.courtlistener.com/recap/gov.uscourts.mied.350905/gov.uscourts.mied.350905.1.15.pdf

        Zuckerberg on page 15. Obammie on page 8.

        ‘Response: Yes, our “White Hat” hackers – they have that traffic and the packets.”

        https://twitter.com/themodalice/status/1333505965857984512

        ‘Ruby Freeman Makes Video of herself Showing MOUNTAINS of GA ABSENTEE BALLOTS With NO RETURN ADDRESS’

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HFYaxvxdfXY&feature=youtu.be

        Example

        Note the vote spike at the Atlanta treason:

        https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/1334812236322381826/

        Corrupt Georgia Election Worker Seen Loading Same Ballots 3 Times into Machine

        Poll Worker Ruby Freeman Loads Up The Same Stack Of Ballots To Be Counted 3X

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RiREC3Zy20E

        Ruby Freeman – “I need an attorney”

        “This is bigger than me. I need an attorney.” at 4:55.

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xsU-CXcJ4Lg

        Some videos worth watching:

        https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1341948764068704256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

        Rudy Giuliani Shuts Down Every Single Democrat And Troll In 6 Minutes

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UUQqLNmap9c

        Sidney Powell On Her “Elevator Pitch” To The Supreme Court

        https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qJg_E_u-2hM

        Election Fraud – Fulton County, Georgia at State Farm Arena on November 3rd, 2020

        https://www.bitchute.com/video/HrPHkNaYH7As/

        1. I replaced the last video with a bitchute link cuz the traitors at utub might take it down. Who could have predicted we’d live in a soviet style media environment 6 months or a year ago?

          Anyway, the video is worth watching.

          2. This is a bedwetting article, posted under the election fraud sub-thread for relevance.

            Washington Post — D.C. is becoming a protest battleground. In a polarized nation, experts say that’s unlikely to change (1/1/21):

            “Extremism experts who study the far-right warn that D.C. is on a path to become the next battleground in increasingly violent confrontations with left-leaning counter demonstrators.

            In the weeks since the 2020 presidential election, a coalition of loyalists of President Trump, conspiracy theory adherents, white nationalists, self-proclaimed militia members and other fringe figures have flocked to the nation’s capital to support the president’s baseless claims of election fraud. As Trump’s hopes of reversing the election results have faltered, those who falsely believe the election was stolen or fraudulent have grown increasingly angry and desperate.

            Extremist groups intent on sowing chaos and division have capitalized on these feelings to recruit members and spread disinformation, experts say. In online chat groups and forums, political rage and disbelief metastasizes into calls for violence.

            “They feel Trump won the election and that the country is being stolen from them, so this is their last chance to save America,” said Heidi Beirich, co-founder of the Global Project Against Hate and Extremism and the former director of intelligence at the Southern Poverty Law Center. “They’re a lot angrier now, and that worries me. It worries me that now they’re deciding if they’re going to bring guns to the street fight.”

            https://archive.is/YFWb1

            Note that the Southern Poverty Law Center is a domestic terrorist criminal cartel masquerading as a civil rights organization.

            The Southern Poverty Law Center is what Huey Long warned us about when he said that “when fascism comes to power in America it will call itself anti-fascism.”

          4. Extremism experts who study the far-right

            That’s a thing? What educational backgrounds do these “experts” have? PhDs in name-calling? It’s really sad that people believe this drivel.

          5. “when fascism comes to power in America it will call itself anti-fascism.” Antifa is his prophecy come true, letter for letter.

      1. At first I thought that 8.5 acres could command some money, even 50 miles from Nashville. But not according the price history:

        10/7/2020 Listed for sale $450,000
        6/1/2016 Sold $37,000
        3/7/2016 Sold $2,500
        1/5/2010 Listed for sale $239,900
        7/18/2008 Sold $235,000
        3/2/2008 Listed for sale $349,900

        My guess is this was a Grandma-finally-died house which changed hands a few times until it was finally flipped to a realtor, who did some paint and hardscape and is now trying to flip it to some equity locust from the Northeast looking for a “homestead.” Heh, the Northeasterners aren’t fooled. 87 days on Zillow.

        1. 87 days, historically, is not a long time to sell a house. But the bubbles have distorted peoples’ perception on how quickly a house should sell.

  3. 77% of Republicans and 30% of Democrats believe the 2020 election outcome was skewed by large-scale election fraud. While the globalists and their Democrat Quislings might be able to steal an election, Biden and Harris are never going to be accepted as legitimate leaders by tens of millions of the heritage Americans so despised by our globalist overlords.

    MAGA fans clash with cops in protests across the country as Trump claims the Georgia runoffs are ‘illegal and invalid’ because of the ‘unconstitutional’ voting process

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9105505/Trump-says-Georgia-Senate-runoff-races-ILLEGAL-invalid.html

    MAGA fans have taken to the streets in Oregon and California to show their support for President Trump and to protest lockdown orders put in place amid the COVID-19 pandemic.

    Hundreds of anti-lockdown protesters were seen in Salem, Oregon on Thursday afternoon, many of whom were waving Trump flags as they urged officials to reopen businesses.

    Police declared the event unlawful and dispersed protesters with impact munitions and flash bang grenades after the group refused to leave downtown.

    Several protesters became angered by that move and were pictured facing off with officer clad in riot gear.

    Others launched their own smoke grenades and ‘several people were arrested’, according to local police.

    1. “We’re not going to take this case, what do you want riots? And don’t give me the Bush vs Gore case because there weren’t any riots!”
      — Corrupt SCOTUS

      1. In the end they all hated him so much that they didn’t care what the old pieces of paper said. And Pilate washed his hands and let them have their way.

    2. Where did you get the figure of 30% Democrats believing there was fraud in the election? That would be huge.

  4. Predictions for the 2021 Northern Virginia Real Estate Market

    ‘The real estate market for detached homes has literally exploded all over the Northern Virginia…The same can’t be said about the condo market. The condo market is oversaturated with inventory, which is slowing sales and dropping prices. It’s a great time to buy a condo as an investor — except the rental market is also oversaturated and slow.’

    https://www.tysonsreporter.com/2020/12/14/laura-schwartz-predictions-for-the-2021-northern-virginia-real-estate-market/

    OK, so too many airboxes is slowing sales? UHS say too little inventory is slowing sales? How can we have too many of anything when we’re repeatedly told we haven’t kept up construction for at least 200 years!

    Yer fooked taxpayer. Don’t get dragged out onto yer 3rd floor patio and tarred and feathered on the 6th.

    1. Do these people even listen to themselves?

      “It’s a great time to buy a condo as an investor — except the rental market is also oversaturated and slow.”

    2. These contradictions are just an effect of the sudden disillusionment with airboxes. There’s a reason realtors use the word “home” instead of “house.” They want to conjure up images of elm trees and picket fences and light-bathed dining room tables with a turkey on a giant platter in the middle … before the buyer figures out he’s going to be locked into a dark 2 bedroom flat with furniture movers above him and bangers on both sides.

      What with shared sewer lines during a pandemic, w@h, Millenials having 1.4 kids and a dog, no more foreigners seeking single-transaction appreciation, the coming economic collapse, and the nightly parade of brick-tossers, nobody except a true city mouse wants an airbox anymore. If you split out the data between boxes and houses instead of trying to averages, what you get is a K-shaped recovery.

      1. There’s no “recovery” at all. It’s a bunch of fakery engineered by the FED and their money printing. The money has washed over every nook and cranny of the economy.

      2. We’ve got 8 aurboxes for sale in Missoula, each $300k, just sitting there. 5 are conversions in an old bldg with no parking.

        Then some new houses in the 400s.

        1. We just visited a friend at the Cambium Place buildings on Wyoming St a couple months ago in Missoula in the RV. It was weird how they looked just like the newer buildings in Boulder. My friend there who knows both places said it was the same designer for both. I’m curious if you’re talking about there, or something newer?

  5. ‘Many of the newly traded Canadian companies lose money. Sometimes, in fact, lots of it’

    Groundhog day. Recently reported Canadian pot growers real estate a$$-poundings galore. Like 90% and counting. Driven by stock prices of course. Seems making profits didn’t matter but snapping up RE to con stock suckers was the plan.

    1. I am starting a new IPO.

      It ties cryptocurrency, weed and fake meat plant food together.

      Stock market symbol is “DUDE”

      Doesn’t have a product or make any profit (yet) – expecting to raise $3 billion.

      1. cryptocurrency

        The bubble in this space is truly eye-popping. Lets’ see, I can either buy one Bitcoin or a brand new car. Gee, what a difficult choice…

  6. The left has politized and weaponized everything.

    There is nothing left in life, the government or the economy that does not bend under their wokeness.

    That being said.

    1. Stock markets go up under insane hard left marxist administrations. Just look at Venezuela or Zimbabwe. The only issue is that these market do not keep pace with the reality of currency destruction. You still lose – only at a slower pace.

    2. Biden gets seated despite more and more high level ORGANIZED evidence of fraud coming out. He sets to initiate marxism through executive order by passing the legislative process.

    3. Some states will finally have enough and will begin the process to secede.

    4. Biden threatens to call out the military. The military ignores him.

    5. The economy does not recover. Democrat marxist mayor and governors love their new dictatorial powers and will never give it up.

    6. The cheap and easy money continues to flow. Those closest to the spigot (corporations and Biden cronies) get uber wealthy. The rest of you get 25% credit card bills and $750,000 crack shacks. The national debt becomes unmanageable at negative interest rates.

    7. Real estate will boom in “safe” areas and get crushed in “not safe” areas.

    8. It all works until it doesn’t – when the power and food supply chains eventually fail. Which is coming.

    9. Patriots will attack internet and wireless infrastructure first – taking it down.

    10. In an effort to compromise – Trump agrees to a “do over” election where everyone must vote in person or documented absentee ballot, voter ID, dip finger in ink and paper ballots only which are observed 24/7 and audited. The left refuses and they know they will lose in a landslide.

    11. And yes – you know what comes next.

    1. You omitted a really important one: more censorship.

      Social media companies and Real Journalists have anointed themselves the Language Police, this isn’t going to change anytime soon.

      In response, we delete social media, and stop generating revenue, any revenue for them. Use the archive website to deny them clicks. Use adblock on PC and phone browsers. Do not use apps that harvest and sell your data.

      Stop giving them money, it’s not that hard. The best weapon against these globalists is the revenue denied to them through these simple efforts.

      1. You reminded me of my New Year’s purchase yesterday of a personal copy of Margaret Mitchell’s novel, “Gone with the Wind.” I’ve made a resolution to make time for reading great literature into my 2021 schedule, and this book is near the top of my list.

        Barnes and Noble sells it, in case you want to purchase a copy before the Democrat thought police burn the remaining ones in a Black Lives Matter book burning bonfire.

    2. 7. Real estate will boom in “safe” areas and get crushed in “not safe” areas.

      I am already seeing this locally, and compared to other big cities Dumver isn’t that bad, yet there is a slow exodus out of it. Not much has gone on sale in my nabe, and it has all sold promptly, mostly to people moving from Dumver. Of course, it’s a relative bargain here, as 700K gets you a golf course McMansion, while in Dumver it gets you a duplex in a vibrant neighborhood.

      1. 7. Real estate will boom in “safe” areas and get crushed in “not safe” areas.”

        I was reading City-Data lots of angst about Portland Oregon

  7. Predictions for South Denver:

    More scrapes of existing single family houses, some in this neighborhood are 100 years old, most were built post WWII. They are then replaced with duplexes, each with their own two car garage, that take up almost the entire lot. These are usually 3-4 bedrooms on each side of the duplex.

    Asking prices for these are in the $600-800K range. Note that the median household income for metro Denver is less than $65,000.

    On the commercial side, South Broadway has many shuttered retail storefronts. Metro Denver will be moving to “level orange” on Monday which allows restaurants to have indoor dining at 25% capacity. What happens after that remains to be seen…

      1. Moral of the story: don’t move to a resort town. It will be full of stoners and deadbeats who want your money. And stay far away from any small town that has a college.

        I wouldn’t be surprised if squatters occupied those vacation homes had the owners vacated per the orders.

  8. A press release:

    ‘So if you are curious as ‘How do I short sell my house in Orange County ‘, you have come to the right place. A large portion of the real estate purchases in Orange County in the past years were done with little to zero down payment, and these homes became ‘underwater’, the sellers owe more money than the property is worth, needing some forgiveness from the lender at the moment of selling. Banks are now pre-approving Orange County short sale transactions. Yes it is possible! You will actually get your Price approved before your home gets listed. Then all you need to do is get the home under contract and close escrow quickly. Banks are paying some distressed sellers to sell their home as SHORT SALES rather than Foreclose. Some banks will even compensate sellers financially to cooperate with short sales.’

    “From start to finish I felt comfortable with Hadi and his short sale team. They were knowledgeable, empathetic and willing to go to bat for my family during the short sale process. Their communication was efficient and they explained things to me if/when I needed it. I truly believe that we would not have made it thru the process without Hadi and the entire team!” said Anthony Rahmedi who had to sell his home due to unique financial crises in his family.’

    https://menafn.com/1101366842/TOP-ORANGE-COUNTY-SHORT-SALE-REAL-ESTATE-AGENT-SELLS-HOMES-FAST-TO-STOP-FORECLOSURE

    ‘A large portion of the real estate purchases in Orange County in the past years were done with little to zero down payment, and these homes became ‘underwater’, the sellers owe more money than the property is worth’

    Wa happened to my sound lending? RED-HOTCAKES I tells ya!

    1. All you need to do – Find that next greater fool!!!!

      “Then all you need to do is get the home under contract and close escrow quickly.”

    2. All you need to do is to find that next great fool!!!!

      “Then all you need to do is get the home under contract and close escrow quickly.”

    4. Pure comedy.

      “Then all you need to do is get the home under contract and close escrow quickly.”

          1. Is celibacy really involuntary if everything causing it is fixable and you choose not to fix it? At some point it’s just immaturity and maybe a bit of ignorance mixed with a healthy dose of anger. Makes great cannon fodder, though.

          2. Is celibacy really involuntary

            In a worst case scenario, I believe brothels are legal in some parts of Nevada.

      2. This happened to me in the spring. A medicare-eliglible woman in a motorized cart started crossing the street while traffic was attempting to take a protected left. My family and I waited for the signal to change to cross, and as we were walking by the woman yelled at us that we were dangerous, irresponsible people.

    2. “The owner and an employee of a Southern California bar and restaurant could each face a year behind bars following a dispute at the business in mid-December, according to a report.

      Authorities say the Costa Mesa bar’s manager, Luiza Mauro, is accused of physically trying to prevent a uniformed police officer from entering the Westend Bar on Dec. 12, FOX 11 of Los Angeles reported.

      Meanwhile, Mauro’s boss – bar owner Roland Barrera – is accused of repeatedly opening the business in violation of coronavirus-related restrictions and curfews, the report said.

      Elsewhere, however, some California bar and restaurant owners have claimed that doing the right thing may be putting them out of business.

      In December, the owner of a bar and restaurant in Los Angeles filed a lawsuit in federal court, claiming Gov. Gavin Newsom’s ban on outdoor dining has been overly broad and not based on scientific evidence.”

      https://www.foxnews.com/us/california-bar-owner-could-get-1-year-behind-bars-for-repeated-openings-during-pandemic-report

      1. Hopefully an all out war between statist police and commie leftists will result in total annihilation of both sides, leaving patriots that support the constitution to rebuild. Kind of like build back better, lol.

        1. all out war between statist police and commie leftists

          Why would they fight each other when they both have the same bosses? They may not like each other but they’ll just have to learn to get along if they want to eat.

    3. self-afflicted pre-existing conditions edition

      And when she keels over after a heart attack, her death certificate will say it was Covid that did her in.

      1. My little corner of flyover world has an incredible number of morbidly obese people riding these mobility scooters.

  11. ‘Georgia election data indicates 17,650 votes were switched from President Donald Trump to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, data scientists testified on Wednesday during a state Senate hearing.’

    ‘A team led by Lynda McLaughlin, along with data scientists Justin Mealey and Dave Lobue, presented the results before the Georgia Senate Judiciary Subcommittee on Elections.’

    ‘Mealey worked as an electronic warfare technician in the U.S. Navy for nine and a half years and was a former Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) contractor as a data analyst and programmer for the National Counterterrorism Center. He currently works for one of the “Big Four” accounting firms as a programmer. Lobue is a data scientist with over a decade of experience in a number of industries.’

    “What we have here is we actually have fraud that we can prove in this election, there was fraud in Georgia’s election, we can prove it with data,” Mealey said. “The voting will of the people of Georgia is not reflected in what was certified by the Secretary of State.”

    ‘According to their analysis on time series election data which was published online as early as Dec. 24, Trump’s votes were decrementing in various counties instead of increasing as they do normally. 17,650 votes were allegedly switched from Trump to Biden as result.’

    ‘A “clear example of vote switching” happened in DeKalb county, they said. At 9:11 p.m. local time, Trump received 29,391 votes as Biden simultaneously received 17,218. However, in the next reported time update, Trump’s votes became 17,218 while Biden’s changed to 29,391.’

    ‘In this single event, 12,173 votes were switched, the data scientists believe. State-certified election results show Trump lost Georgia by 12,670 votes. The Trump campaign is still challenging the results in various courts.’

    “I want to make that very, very clear that at no point in an incremental process, should you decrement it,” Lobue said.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/georgia-election-data-shows-17650-votes-switched-from-trump-to-biden-data-scientists_3640670.html

    Georgia, yer gonna need more rope.

    1. ‘Georgia election data indicates 17,650 votes were switched from President Donald Trump to Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, data scientists testified on Wednesday during a state Senate hearing.’

      There is no evidence, however damning, that the treasonous, lying lamestream media would ever acknowledge. Period. They are engaging in a hostile coup.

    3. GOP senators, led by Cruz, to object to Electoral College certification, demand emergency audit

      Published 1 hour ago2020
      Election
      FOX News

      A coalition of GOP senators and senators-elect, led by Sen. Ted Cruz, will object to the Jan. 6 certification of the presidential election results when a joint session of Congress meets next week unless there is an emergency 10-day audit of the results by an electoral commission.

      Cruz — along with Sens. Ron Johnson, R-Wis.; James Lankford, R-Okla.; Steve Daines, R-Mont.; John Kennedy, R-La.; Marsha Blackburn, R-Tenn., and Mike Braun, R-Ind.; as well as Sens.-elect Cynthia Lummis, R-Wyo.; Roger Marshall, R-Kansas; Bill Hagerty, R-Tenn., and Tommy Tuberville, R-Ala. — say that the election “featured unprecedented allegations of voter fraud and illegal conduct.”

      https://www.fox5dc.com/news/gop-senators-led-by-cruz-to-object-to-electoral-college-certification-demand-emergency-audit

  12. My prediction is the same as always. The Fed will continue to do anything in their power to prevent price discovery.

    1. Housing prices are cratering irrespective of the fed.

      God Bless President Donald J. Trump and God Bless America!

    2. I predict mortgage interest rates will continue to drop, with 15 year loans falling below 1%, maybe even reaching zero.

      1. ‘I predict mortgage interest rates will continue to drop, with 15 year loans falling below 1%, maybe even reaching zero.’

        If home prices had P/E ratios, at that point it would be fair to say they were in bubble territory. Can only imagine what prices people would bid shacks up to simply because the belief that most of their mortgage payment was going into equity value.

          2. If they have the power to do it, it will happen before this is over.

            And then what? Why not just avoid the silly games and skip that zero percent step and go to the next step? This stuff is ridiculous. Like somebody recently said, I forget where, “they need to adopt a long term approach in the short term.”

        2. imagine what prices people would bid shacks up to simply because the belief that most of their mortgage payment was going into equity

          Cheap and easy credit ruins many foolish people. It leads them to pay countless multiples of the actual cost of a house. The longer interest rates are suppressed and the lower the rates, the more people who’s lives have been ruined by unbearable levels of debt.

    3. The FED has fueled a crypto bubble – what will prove to be one of the largest, most destructive Ponzis in history. There are now over 100 million Bitcoin “wallets” out there. It’s like a global electric tulip bubble.

      In my opinion, the people who believe in this garbage are flat-earthers and such, the same types who join the Heaven’s Gate cult, or who run to buy a Lotto ticket once the “jackpot” reaches some level of hysteria.

      The fact that you can create an infinite number of Bitcoin clones tells you all you need to know. There’s nothing unique about Bitcoin, it’s only that it has attracted the attention of the largest number of true-believers. Hop on to the Hale-Bopp express!

      1. Bitcoin mining is mostly happening in China (65% vs US 7%) based mostly on cheap electricity.

        “China is the undisputed world leader in Bitcoin mining.

        Chinese mining pools control more than 60% of the Bitcoin network’s collective hashrate.

        Not only does China manufacture most of the world’s mining equipment, but massive mining farms are located there to take advantage of extremely cheap electricity prices”

        https://www.buybitcoinworldwide.com/mining/china/

        1. Coal is 75% of China’s cheap electricity .

          My prediction clean expensive energy in America managed by idiot politicians will throw America into a massive depression by 2022. And do nothing to reduce global CO2

          All the Brand new solar panels at Moorpark Junior College face east, not South but east.

  13. Well, how do you like big treasonous bought off Government now, that rigged the elections with their cohorts.

    So, I predict that it’s hard to predict what these Traitors are going to do that aren’t in the best interest of the US if that Puppet Biden gets in.
    I predict that whatever they do it won’t be logical and it will weaken and loot the USA more. Just more false narratives and suppression of facts and real news.
    Can you believe that CNN said something like Americans should be more like China.
    Don’t be surprised if Biden pushes the talking points of the Great Reset Davos masterminds. It’s nothing but insanity with Fat Cats wanting to rule the World with top down control. Soros wants open borders with his ridicules “Open Society” concept that’s basically a One World Order concept . Totally deranged and no different than invasion of US and a dismantling of the US by enemies of the US.
    So, I do predict massive unemployment and crash of real estate prices.

  14. Renters vs Owners. I dont have an analytical prediction – but i think that 2021 will start a (5?) year shift in ratios until the housing market makes more sense for more working class folks. I knew that something was happening in greater Seattle – but could not encapsulate it until this article came out — and it cant be blamed on AirBNB or factors like that.

    From the Seattle times
    The last time there were more renters than homeowners in Seattle, Pike Place Market (est. 1907) was a new thing.

    Census data shows that in 1910, there were about 15,000 more Seattle residents living in a rental than in an owned home. But by 1920, owners had moved into the majority, and it remained that way for a century.

    Until now, that is. In 2019, the estimated renter population in Seattle was roughly 366,000, according to census data — just slightly larger than the estimated homeowner population, which was about 362,000.

    … but in the last decade, they’ve soared out of reach even for many who have good incomes. The typical Seattle home had a value of $804,500 in November, according to real estate data firm Zillow.

    And that surely has a lot to do with why, since 2010, Seattle’s renter population has grown at twice the rate as the owner population — a 34% vs. 17% rate of increase.

    https://www.seattletimes.com/seattle-news/data/for-the-first-time-in-100-years-seattle-renters-outnumber-homeowners/?utm_source=marketingcloud&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=TSA_010221170645+Seattle+renters+outnumber+homeowners+for+first+time+since+1910_1_2_2021&utm_term=Active%20subscriber

    1. The typical Seattle home had a value of $804,500 in November, according to real estate data firm Zillow.

      Yet Jerome Powell just said this:

      “I would say from a financial stability standpoint, housing prices are not of a level of concern right now. That’s just reflective of a lot of demand. And builders are going to bring forth supply…. Housing prices themselves are not a financial stability concern at the moment. We will watch that carefully. But in the near term, I wouldn’t think that that’s an issue that we’d be concerned about.”

      1. It seems like the Fed is currently propping up risk asset prices, including stocks, housing, and Bitcoin, by the largest amount and over the longest period of extraordinary intervention in history.

        The questions on my mind are whether they can they continue this indefinitely, and if not, how will it end? Seems like a protracted financial crisis lies in store, whether or not the Fed voluntarily removes the punchbowl.

        1. The questions on my mind are whether they can they continue this indefinitely, and if not, how will it end?

          1. No, that which can’t go on forever won’t.
          2. Nobody knows, but it should follow the gradually then all at once model.

  16. Inflation vs deflation. With the central bank pumping (oops … buying financial assets 🙂 ), i expected some increasing levels of inflation. But so many are predicting less than 2% inflation for a long time.

    Now we are see an early glimmers of deflation in Japan etc.

    What do others predict

    From: Reuters
    The weak data will keep the Bank of Japan, which is meeting for a two-day rate review ending on Friday, under pressure to maintain its massive stimulus programme.

    Core consumer prices, which exclude volatile fresh food costs, fell 0.9% in November from a year earlier, government data showed on Friday, matching a median market forecast.

    It was the fourth straight month of falls and the fastest pace of year-on-year decline since September 2010.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-japan-economy-inflation/japans-consumer-prices-fall-at-fastest-pace-in-decade-stoke-deflation-fears-idUSKBN28S05V?fbclid=IwAR2I4DYPWaGa3dW8guvCBLjuHQ3MUhfRNz9_UR0mU_fEGk6mXkL9PjsXdgQ

    1. My prediction is neither any significant inflation or deflation according to official measures. Rather a continued move towards a command price controlled economy. The government will play a greater role in controlling the prices of all commercial goods and services and financial assets. Market based principles have been suspended indefinitely by central planners never to be seen again until they return with a hellish vengeance.

    1. violent disease carriers: release
      law abiding disease carriers: incarcerate

      New Yawk is the poster child for anarcho-tyranny

  18. My prediction for 2021 is 30 year mortgage rates under 2.0%, more moratoriums on evictions and foreclosures, more extensions of rent and mortgage payment suspensions, at least two bank bail out bills that dwarf all preceding such bail outs, a 10% increase in stock market indices based entirely on FANG stocks and a handful of others, more mask mandates and lockdowns, a 5% increase in the median US home price,…and, in the event of a Biden presidency, massive pension fund bail outs, massive bail outs of bankrupt states, passage of slavery reparations bill, onerous carbon taxes, and “temporary” universal basic income during pandemic. Wish I could be more optimistic. Eventually, all the schemes will fail but it might be a while.

  19. ClownWorld Chronicles, There Are Only Two Genders edition:

    “House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Massachusetts Rep. James McGovern announced proposed changes to the House rules on Friday that removes gendered language.

    According to a statement about the Rules Package for the 117th Congress, “pronouns and familial relationships” will become gender neutral.

    The resolution replaces fathers, mothers, sons, daughters, brothers, sisters, husbands, wives, and in-laws with “parent, child, sibling, spouse, or parent-in-law.”

    https://townhall.com/tipsheet/leahbarkoukis/2021/01/01/gendered-terms-changed-in-house-rules-n2582434

    This is what happens when civilizations collapse.

    1. You are the gender your chromosomes say. Only in rare instances such as hermaphroditism and deformation should doctors ever be involved with surgeries to alter genitalia. The world is becoming a very, very sick place.

      1. Powerful people seek to sicken and thus weaken us step by step. The best defense is Faith in a higher power and traditional wisdom.

  21. You can’t stop what’s coming.

    O Canada: Police Raid House “Gestapo-Style” After COVID Snitch Reports Over 5 People In Home

    by Jamie White
    January 2nd 2021, 11:50 am

    Disturbing video out of Canada shows police violently raiding a family’s home for supposedly violating local COVID capacity rules.

    The now-viral footage from Gatineau, Quebec on New Year’s Eve shows several masked police forcibly removing a man from the home after a COVID snitch reported the gathering of six people.

    The police are then seen subduing the man outside, pinning his face against the asphalt and snow.

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/o-canada-police-raid-house-gestapo-style-after-covid-snitch-reports-over-5-people-in-home/

    1. I see a growth industry: Forced-entry-proof houses with bars on all windows. Keep the jackbooted thugs out.

    2. The police are then seen subduing the man outside, pinning his face against the asphalt and snow.

      If you obey the diktats of the rulers, you have nothing to fear, right? I wonder how the Canadian jack booted thugs decided which one of the six present deserved to be manhandled.

      My hat goes off to every Sheriff who promised to not enforce such laws.

    3. Those cops are lucky theyre in French cuckistan. If that was in my neck of the woods they’d need a new police force and the guy that draws corpse outlines would run out of chalk.

      1. run out of chalk

        Not many of us have much experience taking out an entire police force single handed.

        We’re in a time where careful discernment is called for. This incendiary video actually doesn’t support the headline. There is no indication (in the video) of why the guy was being arrested. That lady yelling, was she speaking French or Italian?

  22. Teachers Union Leader Battles to Keep Schools Closed — While on Vacation in the Caribbean

    by RT
    January 2nd 2021, 9:44 am

    A Chicago Teachers Union leader has landed herself in a storm of controversy by vociferously campaigning to keep schools closed due to the Covid-19 pandemic while she soaks up the sun on holiday in the Caribbean.

    Union area vice president Sarah Chambers has been claiming that re-opening Chicago’s public schools next Monday would put students, teachers and the wider public at risk due to widespread Covid-19 infections.

    But these apparent concerns for public health didn’t stop her jetting off to Puerto Rico, despite the small Caribbean island racking up over 110,000 cases of the coronavirus disease.

    The union activist shared photos on her Instagram page showing her lounging by the pool as palm trees picturesquely sway in the breeze. Chambers subsequently took her Instagram account offline but not before her snaps drew the attention of local news sites including WGN-TV.

    @sarah4justice/ Instagram
    “We have the whole pool to ourselves. Then, we are going to old San Juan to get some yummy seafood mofongo,” Chambers reportedly said in the caption of one of the images.

    “Sarah Chambers went on vacation to Puerto Rico while saying schools aren’t safe and advocating for remote learning. Hypocrisy at its finest! I hope her district sees this and fires her,” one irate commenter wrote. Another added: “Sarah Chambers should be forced to resign or be fired. She celebrates our children’s suffering.”

    But the educator isn’t taking it lying down. She defended her actions on Twitter, writing: “I got 4 covid tests (2 rapid, 2 PCR) b4 coming here & wore 2 masks (N95). Scientists said airplanes are safer than grocery stores bc airplanes have ICU level filtration & everyone wears masks.”

    https://www.infowars.com/posts/teachers-union-leader-battles-to-keep-schools-closed-while-on-vacation-in-the-caribbean

    1. I hope her district sees this and fires her

      I don’t think the School District can fire the Teacher’s Union Boss.

    1. I’m going to be honest. I NEVER thought it would even approach where it is right now. If anybody ever wants to make a boatload of cash, just do the opposite of what I think is the right move.

      1. I think the way to make money on it is to be one of the people selling it right now. And I don’t have any to sell.

    1. The entire Epoch Times video is worthwhile, and the guest, Soledad Ursua, really knows her way around the Homeless issue.

  27. I was sitting here contemplating what this new year is going to bring, and the biggest question that I have is where in the heck a frugal, cautious person like myself could ever get a return on cash. Treasuries look absolutely pitiful. I mean, what’s the point? Precious metals, so far as I can tell, aren’t really an “investment,” they’re just an inflation guard. CDs at .5% APY? Hah! Fawk you, Powell. I guess I’ll just get reamed by inflation. Just thinking out loud here.

    1. Fidelity has two relatively new zero fee index funds I’m thinking of dripping some money into.

      FZROX
      FZIPX

      The S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 but without any fees. A very slow drip, drip, drip, and if and when there’s a 20% correction maybe start buying more. I agree that this is all very frustrating, I was getting 5.25% APY on a savings account at AmTrust Bank in 2008.

    2. My position is that I have enough, if I don’t lose it in an “investment”.

      I’m not young enough to have any desire to ride out any kind of index, especially buying at ridiculous heights.

      I invested freely in my children. Have a home that is more than satisfactory permanently, near “Main Street” and local farms both. I have a woodworking studio and enough materials to stay out of trouble for decades. Also the cabin cruiser for as long as I’m able to use it, and the Redhead is willing to go along.

      Remember, if you’re in a fund, you don’t have the money, they do.

    3. NEM a gold miner pays a dividend but I have no idea if its going to go up or down ? I own a little of it

    1. That was worded so poorly that I’m surprised somebody didn’t say, “I’d put us at January, 2021.” I guess I was wondering where somebody would plot us in relation to the past, to guess what sort of inflation we have coming in the next couple years.

      1. what sort of inflation we have coming

        I wonder what kind of inflation cascading defaults might bring. You say yourself that there’s no good place to invest money, yet do you think there are any good places to lend money? We’ve had an historic credit expansion and the price of things doubled while we made too much of everything. What would we build next to double the amount of debt and crap to bring on a big inflation?

        1. But whose defaults are cascading? Local restaurants, or a little ski resort? Those don’t show up in the DOW or the S&P. And I doubt the media will report on it. As long as Wal-mart and Amazon are doing well, I guess that’s all that counts to them. If anything, small business BK will slow inflation, since Washington won’t need to print more PPP money.

  29. I’m trying to make 2021 predictions but it’s not easy. Too much of 2021 will be dictated by what happens in the next two weeks, especially as regards the Senate. So I’ll just make two vague predictions:

    1. Pandemic will be totally over by the start of school in the fall.
    2. The US might have a drawn-out Depression, but I believe the plan for globalists to take over the US — as in, you-will-own-nothing-and-be-happy, will ultimately fail. As the saying goes, a herd goes insane all at once but they come to their senses one by one. I think this is what we will see, even if it happens over a couple of years.

    1. Hello, Realtor.

      Did you know that it’s possible to be a renter and an owner at the same time? Owning land in a rural county and renting for less than 1/4 the cost of owning in the city is how rich renters get rich and stay rich.

      There’s no incentive to contribute to their system anymore. I’ll make money in Denver, but I won’t spend it there.

      Take the money back to Arapahoe County and not spend it. Take from Denver, do not give to Denver. Do not pass GO! and do not collect $200.

        1. For giggles, I zillowed Farista and Walsenburg, CO. They’re practically giving land away $500-$1000/acre, raw. Land with trees on it seems to sell in the higher end of the range, maybe because there’s more water there. Even then, some of the plots have been on the market for over a year.

          I’ve been watching the precious metal yootoobs, and many of them are literally heading for the hills. They’re all very doom and gloom about the dollar collapsing and Klaus taking over. Their answer is to be “resilient,” by which they mean starting a homestead with cows and chickens and acquiring skills to be bartered. These are educated economists with money to spare, and their answer is to run away to Little House on the Prairie.

          I’m looking for ways to prepare for the crisis without resorting to anything so drastic.

          1. I’ll only buy land if it’s within half an hour of shopping and services, and I’m not talking a quickie mart. I’d want a nice, large grocery store, a hardware store, a fuel station, healthcare and other necessities. Any further out and it’s too remote to be viable, IMO.

          2. “I’ll only buy land if…”

            To have real long term growth you need the essentials of modern society, e.g., k12 through universities, hospitals and related healthcare, airport and freeways, productive employment, etc., or the area is basically a dead end, a retirement zone and welfare enclave. I know, I’m living in the latter right now.

          3. I wouldn’t really care about long term growth so much as just a sustainable existence, which needs goods and services. Too far out and the fuel and energy required is too much.

          4. The fly-over areas will get you the first three layers of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. The next two layers require a modern metro needed to stimulate and thrive.

          5. The fly-over areas will get you the first three layers of Maslow’s hierarchy of needs. The next two layers require a modern metro needed to stimulate and thrive.

            Interesting theory…but nobody got those needs met before modern metros existed? I think it’s mostly in people’s heads and can be met anywhere with enough people to have a monkeysphere that respects you and enjoys your company (obviously you have some responsibility in that too).

          6. Of course, I’m painting with a wide brush. Nearly all of the brightest young adults we’ve watched grow-up move away, but some of them return when the wife becomes a mother. We’re raising a daughter and son, so I speak with a hint of authority on the subject.

          7. Maslow’s hierarchy of needs

            I think I can get by with the first two layers. After all, that’s all I get on lockdown anyway.

          9. “I think I can get by with the first two layers.”

            This reminds me of the retirement fallacy where you sit in the sand, vegging out, sucking pineapple drinks; after three days that’s hell on earth for me. I need things to do, hobbies, outdoor sports, etc., something for stimulation.

          10. I need things to do, hobbies, outdoor sports, etc., something for stimulation.

            Me too. But I don’t mind being the guy with the guitar playing for the people drinking. That’s one of my hobbies. Of course there are always locals who do it too, but in my travels around the world I’ve found that with the exception of the Philippines, on the beaches and in the bars Americans do western music better. Filipinos are amazing. There’s a reason the guy singing for Journey now is from there.

  31. predictions are fun! i predict i will be wrong with my logical thinking of the future of this world and the RE market. I do really think CRE is going down the drain. I dont want to make any other predictions as we live in an upside down, manipulated, lied to, censored, funny money is the new money world. for fun i went back to last years predictions: http://housingbubble.blog/?p=2774

    happy fear year all!

    1. Thanks for the flashback!

      My two predictions from last years post:

      “If I had one prediction, it would be that those of us who have been saving and looking for value for our dollars will not find it in 2020.”

      Aside from those looking for 80 million dollar estates in Malibu this was pretty accurate.

      “Sorry to say, what I see, but do not support or advocate, is fighting in the streets.”

      Hey that was before the George Floyd riots. Not a bad prediction.

  32. My husband insists we buy in overpriced Ann Arbor this year, so I predict intense strife in my life.

    I wonder how CrazyHouse is doing. Hopefully, COVID put a pause on her husband’s insistence and/or she took Econ_teacher’s advice.

  33. I predict I buy a yard and pool, pickle my liver with wine and gin, or both depending on the length of school closures. 🤪

  34. Super rich are hedging their citizenship

    UK-based passport broker Henley & Partners saw a 42% increase in overall citizenship applications this year. “’Investment migration’ has shifted from being about living the life you want in terms of holidays and business travel to a more holistic vision that includes healthcare and safety,” the company said.

    The most popular “pandemic passports” or permanent residency programs are those of Australia, Antigua, St Kitts and Nevis, Tuvalu, Vanuatu, Austria, Switzerland, Portugal, Cyprus, Malta and Montenegro.

    Buying second citizenships or residencies isn’t a new thing, but it’s increasingly being used to avoid criminal or civil proceedings or evade taxes and bust sanctions, in addition to the more legitimate reasons listed above.

    1. “’Investment migration’ has shifted from being about living the life you want in terms of holidays and business travel to a more holistic vision that includes healthcare and safety,” the company said.

      This stuff makes me laugh. Do these rich fawks really think they’re going to be safe buying some massive compound in a foreign land if the sh!t really hits the fan? They stick out like a sore thumb.

      You know how you “stay safe?” You blend in. You sell the monstrous eyesore and buy a nondescript 4 bedroom rancher under an LLC on the city limits that nobody would ever pay mind to. And then you wear your Walmart clothing and drive a Camry. But no, these aszholes could never be bothered with that. So, if there’s ever some head-choppin’ to happen, they’ll make good and sure that you have no problem at all locating them.

      1. So, if there’s ever some head-choppin’ to happen, they’ll make good and sure that you have no problem at all locating them.

        By that time we may be nuking them from orbit. It’s the only way to be sure.

        1. These guys are stupid thinking they’re just going to fly off to their multimillion dollar compound and live some sheltered existence. The world is the smallest it’s ever been due to technology. When people come for their pound of flesh, no rent-a-cop protected estate in a banana republic or some snowflake country is going to shelter them. Some mercenaries will lay waste to the entire thing.

          Just look at where Saddam Hussein ended up. They drug him out of an underground hole. When people go looking for you, the last place you want to be is some high profile estate. The truth is, you can’t hide, but you can make it more difficult to be found.

          1. The truth is, you can’t hide, but you can make it more difficult to be found.

            Some of the bug out bunkers are remote and hidden (as in underground). Harder to find, but not unfindable.

            Maybe the plan is for most of us to drop dead from an “unforeseen” problem with the vaccines.

          2. When the time comes, would those rent-a-cops even protect the estate? More likely they’d climb the wall and join the pitchforks.

          3. would those rent-a-cops even protect the estate? From what I’ve learned from history, they would be like Caesar’s Praetorian Guard, turning on him “unexpectedly” and killing him outright, turning over the property to the highest bidder or the one they prefer.

          4. When the time comes, would those rent-a-cops even protect the estate? More likely they’d climb the wall and join the pitchforks.

            Exactly. They’re there for the paycheck. The moment things turn ugly, they know that paycheck is gone anyway so they’re looking to save their own hide. Mr. Gazillionaire is then on his own. Sucks to be him.

          5. FWIW, the rent a cops need a place to live and eat too. Should the angry mobs overrun the bunker, they also lose. Of course, they could turn on the master and the keep the whole place for themselves.

      2. 1000x thumbs-up on this. Building a spooker and rehearsing the legend that you’d live under is a discipline, not something you buy COTS. It takes time and practice and I see the Chinese doing it a lot in SoCal over the past 15+ years now.

  35. I’m a longtime lurker, first time commenter. BTW I’ve learned a lot from and thoroughly enjoyed reading the HBB.
    I grew up on a farm north of Des Moines, IA, lived in Minneapolis for 14 years (renter until 2011, then homeowner), then St Louis, MO (owner) during the Ferguson riots, Columbus, OH (renter) for two years, and now currently moving to near Lexington, KY, where I plan on being a renter for the next couple years.
    I’m an icu nurse and have little former economic training, but normally “use my gut” for financial decisions. My MBA husband thinks I actually have better financial acumen than him. I guess growing up during the farm crisis left a big imprint on me in regards to value and taking on debt.
    Anyways, my predictions for next year: the cities are ffed. I work in Minneapolis, and every time I go back, I feel more and more unsafe and there is an overall sense of depression. For instance, my boss actually gave us pepper spray as a Christmas gift this year because of the number of nurses getting mugged/assaulted and car jacked on their way to work. When even my die-hard hippy Minneapolis public schools teacher friend is actively looking for ex-burb property in outstate MN and WS, I know the property mkt in MSP is going to crash first, most likely this spring. Initially, suburban markets will remain propped up, but they will also have a 10-20% correction when all the economic after-effects of covid lockdowns and mortgage forbearance and eviction moratorium come to fruition. I foresee the government continuing the forbearance and eviction moratorium until Fall 2021, but this will, of course, have to end at some point.
    The consequent lack of money in the mortgage industry coffers due to unpaid mortgages on homes and rental property during the forbearance and eviction moratorium period will cause a cash crunch for the mortgage industry… At this point, I am stumped. Will the government, yet again, bail out the mortgage industry and banking- or- will interest rates go up to encourage investors?
    Either way, I foresee a major housing correction when the forbearance and eviction moratoriums end. There is no way the loss of so many small businesses and the associated jobs cannot affect the ability to people to pay for already overpriced homes. Moreover, the people I see buying homes now, god bless them, are dumb millennials and other fools. Same type of people who encouraged me to buy in 2006. It’s like that story about Joeseph Kennedy- when his shoeshine man was jumping into the stock market and talking about his appreciation, Joe Kennedy knew now was the time to sell because a crash was inevitable.

    1. When even my die-hard hippy Minneapolis public schools teacher friend is actively looking for ex-burb property in outstate MN and WS, I know the property mkt in MSP is going to crash first, most likely this spring.

      And yet I’ll bet this genius is still going to vote blue. You can’t fix stupid.

      1. And yet I’ll bet this genius is still going to vote blue.

        It’s not fair to hold early stage leftism responsible for late stage leftism. That’s not real leftism.

      2. When she complains about stuff and sounds like a total conservative, I say to her, “You know it’s okay to vote Republican, or at least Libertarian, right?”. For some insane reason, she thinks voting blue is the only viable option. It’s like she started to take the red pill but just can’t deal with it. Or her identity is so tied into being a liberal. It’s illogical. But I did adamantly tell her that if she was moving to “red” territory, she should seriously think about WHY she is moving there and not vote for the same bullshit she is leaving behind.

    1. I predict that President Trump will prevail and they have a new election in 6 swing States and Trump wins. Than Trump spends 4 years cleaning up the Swamp.

      I can dream you know.

      1. 2021 will be so bad, we will miss 2020.
        Don’t worry, my digital calendar says today is 13/3/2020

  38. Having lived through, and observed in real time, the major U.S. stock market crashes of 1987, 2000, and 2008, I can say that the level of euphoria today feels very similar, if not even more extreme, than it did before the onset of those other major meltdowns over the time since I first became aware of the stock market’s predictably strange and unpredictable price behavior. I cannot recall another time when the bears were so completely confounded by a tsunami tide of money into stocks against the backdrop of economic collapse that they collectively went into hibernation.

    What is similar about this episode to the previous ones is that the bulls seem cock sure the Fed has their backs. What seems different is a widespread perception that the Fed is going to offer its unlimited support — whatever it takes! — to fulfill incoming Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’$ prediction that there would “Not (be) Another Financial Crisis in Our Lifetimes.”

    When everyone is 100% certain that asset prices can only go up, with no risk whatever of losing money, what results is a decoupling of prices from fundamental economic reality…what is commonly known as an asset price bubble. When the current one will pop is anyone’s guess. Just remember, “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

    1. “the market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.”

      Anyone care to wager on that?

  40. I predict that more people and families fed up with California’s Democrats, taxes, droughts, fires, pandemic measures, and riots will continue leaving the state for greener pastures than the number who move into the state.

    1. Almost forgot to mention the insane housing price bubble in California!

      The Wall Street Journal
      Opinion Review & Outlook
      States of Growth and Decline
      The latest Census population statistics show a shift from blue to red.
      A truck passes a welcome sign along I-10 Sunday, March 29, 2020, in Orange, Texas.
      Photo: David J. Phillip/Associated Press
      By the Editorial Board
      Dec. 31, 2020 7:17 pm ET

      President Trump is soon expected to submit to Congress state population counts from this year’s Census for reapportionment. Last week the Census Bureau gave a preview of what to expect, and blue-state Democrats might want to prepare their smelling salts in advance.

      Sixteen mostly coastal and Rust Belt states lost population from July 2019 to July 2020, according to the Census Bureau’s annual population survey, and Illinois, West Virginia, New York, Connecticut, Mississippi and Vermont have shrunk since 2010. At the same time, many low-tax Sun Belt states have continued to attract newcomers.

      The pandemic may have contributed to population losses in some states as city dwellers with means escaped to rental and vacation homes. Foreign immigration also fell after President Trump suspended new green cards in April. Some states, especially in the Northeast, experienced thousands of more deaths than usual due to Covid.

      But the bureau’s annual population estimate captures only the first few months of the pandemic when migration generally declined as most people hunkered down. Geographic mobility increased over the summer and fall, and the pandemic seems to have accelerated migration flows that have been occurring for years. States such as New Jersey, Michigan, Pennsylvania and California have counted on foreign immigration offsetting net out-migration. That didn’t happen this year, so many states lost population for the first time in decades.

      California’s population shrank for the first time as far back as records go (-69,532). According to a separate state government survey, a net 261,000 residents moved to other states during the period, the most in nearly 25 years. High housing costs have been driving out the middle class for years.
      …

  41. Buying stocks with margin debt is the financial equivalent of playing with fire. In the Great Crash of 1929, society discovered that playing with fire sometimes leads to uncontrollable conflagrations that scorch everything, including innocent victims who chose financial prudence over reckless gambling behavior.

    Apparently the lessons of the 1930s have been forgotten and will soon have to be relearned.

    1. Margin Debt Reaches New High
      Investors borrowed a record $722.1 billion against their investment portfolios
      By Elana Dure
      Updated Dec 28, 2020

      Margin balances have reached a new record high as a widening class of affluent Americans borrowed against their portfolio investments to buy more stock.

      Margin debt has reached the highest point in two years as investors borrowed a record $722.1 billion against their investment portfolios through November, topping the previous high of $668.9 billion from May 2018, according to the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority (FINRA). This amount is a 28% increase since the same time last year and is up nearly 10% from $659.3 billion in Oct. 2020. The surge in risk-taking indicates that investors were euphoric as COVID-19 vaccines neared.

      These investors are chasing bigger gains and exposing themselves to potentially devastating losses through riskier plays, including concentrated positions, trading options, and leveraged exchange-traded funds (ETFs). The milestone is not a good sign for the stock market since margin debt records often precede market volatility, as seen in 2000 and 2008.

      The S&P 500 has jumped nearly 67% since its lowest point on March 23 and dozens of stocks have rocketed even higher. Tesla is up 685% year-to-date after joining the S&P 500, while Zoom Video Communications has gained 429% so far this year as remote work became the norm due to the coronavirus pandemic. Meanwhile, COVID-19 vaccine maker Moderna is up 516% for the year.

      Investors who use margin debt pledge their securities in exchange for loans from brokers to buy more securities or sell short a stock. Regulation T says investors can only take on margin debt of 50% of their account balance, though the typical margin requirement is 25%.
      …

      1. I read somewhere the other day, I think in a comments section, where somebody was talking about people trading Bitcoin and other crypto on margin. She’s gonna blow!

  42. anyone remember the Millennial tv show?

    Created by Chris Carter (The X-Files), this sci-fi drama series follows Frank Black (Lance Henriksen), an ex-FBI profiler who has the skill of knowing how serial killers and murderers view the world around them.

    Moving from Washington, D.C. to Seattle with wife Catherine (Megan Gallager) and daughter Jordan (Brittany Tiplady), Frank enlists with the Millennium Group, which is comprised of former law enforcement officers who battle crimes together as the new millennium approaches. He helps old friend Lieutenant Bob Bletcher (Bill Smitrovich), a Seattle homicide detective, and later, Millennium Group agent Peter Watts (Terry O’Quinn). When Frank’s work interferes too much with his family life, he and Catherine separate.

    The longer that Frank stays with the Millenium Group, the more he realizes they may be using his gift for their own gain. Working with Lara Means (Kristen Cloke), he learns that they may be trying to take over the world. A deadly virus threatens the population of the planet and in its wake, takes Frank’s wife Catherine.

    Frank and daughter Jordan survive and the incident drives Frank back to the FBI in Washington, D.C. to work with new agents Andy MacLaren (Stephen E. Miller), Emma Hollis (Klea Scott), and Barry Baldwin (Peter Outerbridge). The real case Frank wants to solve is that of the mysterious Millennium Group.

  43. How can a person of reason take a new vaccine when Doctors and Scientists that oppose the vaccine are being censored ?
    It’s a new technology that’s different than prior vaccines. It reminds me a little of the GMO technology they have been using on crops.
    The point is that they don’t know the long term affects .
    Maybe if you had a virus that would threaten death of 75 % of the population it would justify such a experiment , but a 99.5% or more survival rate with Covid-19 isn’t justified given the risk factors with these Vaccines.
    They are doing everything they can to force compliance by the populations, with fear mongering and fake news.
    Why people have any trust what so ever for Entities that would employ these methods to get compliance is unbelievable.
    But, I predict that they will move toward mandatory compliance on the vaccine while they continue to suppress any negative news or facts about the rushed vaccines. What Bill Gates thinks is a acceptable side effect risk is just not relevant to your right to protect yourself.
    So, in everyway Monopolies and Globalist and Commies want to dictate your life.
    I could of predicted that Obama care was the first big intrusion in people having choice.
    Locking down people until they cry mercy isn’t my idea of a Authority that is trustworthy with good intentions.
    If they have to rig elections, than they could care less what the people want, and it’s just a takeover to force their insane agendas.
    I predict that extreme blowback to their agendas will take place in 2021.

    1. Excuse me while I put on my tinfoil hat …

      Imagine if there is a known (to them), long term negative effect that will dramatically shorten lifespans. It would be a great way to steadily reduce the world’s population. Or maybe not so slow and steady. Imagine if suddenly almost everyone gets cancer after a few years. Wouldn’t it be wild if over two thirds of the houses on your street were vacant? I suppose that TPTB could use that as a reason to repopulate your city with new, imported people.

      1. I can’t go there. It’s too diabolical. There would have to be too many psychopaths working together to achieve that, with no discord or whistleblowers at all.

        2. Rip,
          I think one of the hardest thinks to believe is that people would do evil things to their fellow humans
          People project their good will on people that don’t have good will.
          Cults start rationizing what they do to their perceived enemies.
          People keep their mouths shut if they think their job is at stake.
          Look at how they are treating the wisleblowers on the election fraud.
          Once evil hits a critical mass it than becomes acceptable or ignored. The brainwashing of people creates peaceful protestors looting and lighting fires and attack on Innocent people.
          Washington DC has become so corrupted that they live in another World. Fake News thinks it can overcome any counter data to their fake narratives. So, anything is possible will big powerful Monopolies.

    2. But, I predict that they will move toward mandatory compliance on the vaccine while they continue to suppress any negative news or facts about the rushed vaccines. What Bill Gates thinks is a acceptable side effect risk is just not relevant to your right to protect yourself.

      I’ll bet that he’ll never be vaccinated. Sure, people like him will do photo ops while they are injected with saline solution.

      1. In Colorado,
        I don’t believe any of those vaccine taking shoots. As if ” Monkey see, Monkey do” is going to convince me anyway.
        These are people that are giving you stats based on tests for Covid-19 that aren’t accurate. These are people who aren’t following the so called Science.
        They keep wearing people
        down until they cry UNCLE.
        They have shown their true colors in every way, so they aren’t going to touch me with a needle.
        That worm Bill Gates has always talked about population control , so I wouldn’t put it pass him to be involved with forced vaccines.

  44. Case Shiller’s National Index is up 8 percent YOY: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA (212 to 229)

    What caused this?
    * Low and declining interest rates
    * Low inventory
    * People at home all day looking for pandemic projects (shopping)

    But what about all the vast unemployment claims? That created a natural experiment to show who’s driving the housing market.

    Prediction:
    * By fall, most people should be vaccinated. Covid deaths, weekly and monthly, should be near zero.
    * The economy will be surging, bringing vast numbers of people back into employment.
    * Inventory will go up.
    * Mortgage interest rates may creep back up. Interest rates on cash may creep back up.
    -> About this: Government wants to borrow at low interest rates. The fed was able to nearly double its balance sheet in 2 months: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/bst_recenttrends.htm
    -> The Fed exists to lend to the government and backstop Wall Street (google “cleaners vs leaners”).
    -> The conventional wisdom is mortgage rates depend on the 10 year Treasury.
    -> The Fed is pumping vast amounts into both the government and Wall Street in order to maintain that balance sheet size. I cannot imagine it ever appreciably reducing the balance sheet size. It’s tried twice, both times resulting in problems: 1) the taper tantrum, 2) the repo market earthquake.

    Anyway – the increase in inventory, the possible creep-up of interest rates, and people being gainfully employed (with less time to think about shopping) should I think limit house price increases. Instead of the gallop skyward, there might actually be more inventory, but at similar prices as today. So price stability versus continuing the gallop higher.

    What about people’s house shopping behavior? The higher parts of the income ladder, those with stable jobs and finances even in a pandemic shutdown, have shot their wad. There absolutely is FOMO – buy now or be priced out indefinitely. Once the pandemic-sensitive jobs come back, more inventory but stable prices and slightly higher interest rates will create more activity in the lower ends of the market with less in the higher ends.

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