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It’s A Buyers’ Market; They Set The Price

It’s Friday desk clearing time for this blogger. “Luxury homes for sale and hundreds of them. All in the great Naples area, available today. Lori Fowler, a realtor at Coldwell Banker Global Luxury, said people had learned their lesson. Buyers are not overpaying for homes and they are taking out massive loans to secure a residence in a high-end neighborhood. Fowler said despite the recent downturn in sales, there is no reason to fret about the increasing number of for sale signs. It is not 2008 all over again.”

“‘We are definitely having a lot of buyers here in the market that are definitely swooping up all of the luxury inventory,’ Fowler said.”

“Large, high-end homes across the Sunbelt are sitting on the market, enduring deep price cuts to sell. The area around Scottsdale, Ariz. had 349 homes on the market at or above $3 million as of February 1—an all-time high. Homes built before 2012 are selling at steep discounts—sometimes almost 50%, and many owners end up selling for less than they paid to build their homes, said Walt Danley’s Dub Dellis.”

“‘You had this wave of homes built that now just don’t make sense for a lot of the people who bought them,’ said Rick Palacios, Jr. of John Burns Real Estate Consulting.”

“Anyone in the Valley waiting for the housing market to tilt toward buyers may be waiting a while. Experts say the Phoenix market remains a sellers’ market and they see no end in sight. ‘Anyone who is expecting prices to fall is likely to be very disappointed by the current state of affairs,’ said the Cromford Report, noting: ‘Asking prices are being cut at quite a high rate, but asking prices are often overly optimistic anyway, especially for homes that have just been listed.'”

“Michael Schneck, the managing member of a Livingston, New Jersey-based firm, has been fielding calls from homeowners who want to appeal their property taxes. Some of them may even have a case. That may be because savvy shoppers are factoring in the new limit on the SALT deduction, or simply that the market for luxury homes is cooling after a period of rapid appreciation.”

“‘Homes over $3 million are seeing a significant slowing of sales and reduction of offering prices,’ Schneck said.”

“‘Buyers have more properties to choose from, and there is less competition as some buyers were pushed out of the market by rising prices,’ said Amanda Etchevery, chair of the Santa Clarita Valley Division of Realtors. ‘The question is, will people who want and need a home understand that all those factors lead to one conclusion—owners may be willing to make concessions if they want to sell quickly.’ And that, she said, may lead to price reductions.”

“The latest North Texas housing market numbers are not very encouraging, to say the least. Home sales were down in many Dallas-Fort Worth neighborhoods in February, and median home sales prices dropped for the first time since the Great Recession in both Dallas and Rockwall counties.”

“Almost 17 percent of houses currently listed for sale in the area have already had a price cut, according to Zillow. I still don’t think a big value correction is likely. But don’t be surprised if some months we see year-over-year price declines.”

“Luxury home sales fell in the two formerly hot housing markets of Vancouver and Toronto, as well as Calgary, in the first couple months of the new year. ‘It is a considerable amount of taxation on real estate all designed to try and affect a soft landing,’ said Sotheby’s International Realty Canada CEO Brad Henderson. ‘Well, I don’t think it was completely a soft landing, but it was certainly not a catastrophic landing.'”

“‘The market for housing in Herzliya Pituah is dead,’ says real estate appraiser Israel Yaakov. ‘Activity here came to a standstill in 2017 after Kahlon raised the purchase tax and the Prohibition on Money Laundering Law went into effect. Money laundering was involved in quite a few of the houses sold over the years.'”

“A developer bought a 600-square meter lot on Hanuriot Street for NIS 6 million, renovated it for NIS 6 million, and sold it for NIS 12 million. ‘He planned to sell the house for NIS 18 million, but couldn’t pull it off,’ says Yaakov. ‘It’s a buyers’ market; they set the price.'”

“Sydney’s prestige home owners are feeling the ripple effect of the housing downturn with longer sales campaigns and more discounting before they score a sold sticker. ‘These figures would suggest that the prestige market is not as resilient as was previously thought,’ said AMP Capital chief economist Shane Oliver.”

“A man in southeastern China is fuming after discovering that a sink in his new ‘luxury apartment’ is actually smaller than his hand. Last month, flats in the neighborhood reportedly sold for an average of 34,980 yuan ($5,210) per square meter, while three-bedroom units cost three million yuan ($446,960).”

“At such prices, the new homeowner was shocked to find the practically unusable sink, which is located on the balcony. ‘I’ve never seen a sink this strange,’ he told Guangdong Radio and Television Station. ‘It’s different from the sink I saw in the showroom. That one was normal. How can you call it a hand-washing area if you can’t even fit your hand into it?'”

“Lawrence Yun, chief economist at the National Association of REALTORS®, says that data shows improving conditions heading into the spring selling and buying season based on multiple sources. ‘The slump is over in the housing market,’ Yun said. ‘Better times are ahead for home buyers.'”

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This Post Has 81 Comments

      1. Yes there are.

        Which reminds me: How many investors’s portfolios could withstand a 40% drop in the S&P 500?

        2. S&P 500 could fall 40% as yield curve inverts, says analyst of one of 2018’s best hedge-fund returns
          By Sunny Oh
          Published: Mar 22, 2019 3:17 p.m. ET
          Crescat’s Costa says number of inverted yield spreads in the Treasury market spells trouble for stocks
          Getty Images

          Stock investors should heed the warning emanating from the bond market, says at least one hedge-fund manager, as the yield curve staged a stunning inversion Friday.

          “I think people are going to be surprised where the S&P 500 is trading at the end of the year. We’re going at least for a 40% decline from the S&P’s top,” Otavio Costa, a macro analyst at Crescat Capital, a hedge fund that oversees $52 million, told MarketWatch in an interview.

          The analyst of the investment firm, says the inversion of the yield curve, where short-dated yields rise above their longer-dated peers, signals an ignominious end to a 10-year bull run for the S&P 500 index, which bottomed in March of 2009 but has mounted a record-long rally, by some measures, since that point.

          In particular, Costa said the growing number of inversions in yield spreads across Treasury maturities suggested a bear-market for equities was at hand, in the face of a darkening global growth picture.

          Costa’s comments come as the 10-year Treasury note yield tumbled 10 basis points to 2.439%, while the 3-month T-bill was down a single basis point to 2.462%, leaving the spread between the two maturities at around negative 3 basis points.

          An inversion of this spread — the most closely watched by economists — has preceded every recession since 1960, though the timing between the two events can vary, according to the New York Fed. Bond prices move inversely to yields.

          The inversion is the first such since 2007, just before the financial crisis that unfolded, reaching a crescendo in the fall of 2008. Yield curves invert because investors worry about future economic growth, which can stoke demand for safe, long-term Treasurys, while pushing down long-term rates. Up until January, the Federal Reserve had been lifting interest rates, nine times since December of 2015, which can have the effect of pushing down shorter-term rates, which are the most sensitive to central-bank rate increases, higher.

          The T-bill and 10-year’s inversion has rippled through equity markets, with the S&P 500 (SPX, -1.90%) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA, -1.77%) on track to finish lower by more than 1% on Friday. Both equity benchmarks were down more than 2% from their recent peak on Thursday, FactSet data show.

          Costa, a 29-year -old Brazilian native, who has been featured on Bloomberg News, says he is bearish on U.S. stocks and bullish on gold, or what he dubbed the “macro trade of the century,” with the expectation that investors would rush into havens as panic sets in and investors discard assets perceived as risky, like stocks, in favor of those viewed as havens, like gold.
          …

          2. Would the Plunge Protection Team (leadership at the Fed, Treasury, etc.) let it correct by 70% before reinstating massive Quantitative Easing? Or do you assume that at some point, QE will prove to have lost its heft?

  2. ‘reportedly sold for an average of 34,980 yuan ($5,210) per square meter, while three-bedroom units cost three million yuan ($446,960) ‘It’s different from the sink I saw in the showroom. That one was normal. How can you call it a hand-washing area if you can’t even fit your hand into it?’

    Stamp those little feet!

    1. that is awesome!

      I admire the pure greed that builders have. I dont have the imagination to be this evil.

      If the home buyer is this blatant about a sink – imagine what is happening on non-visible components.

      1. The picture does show a pretty tiny sink. You can’t wash a coffee cup in it. What I don’t understand is *why* this sink is so small. The faucet is the same, the drain is the same, there’s enough counterspace for a sink. So I don’t see why there isn’t a regular sink. It’s not going to cost much.

        1. I read a story somewhere recently where an engineer for one of the big automakers was responding to a complaint about an ugly vehicle grille. The engineer responded something like “see if you can do better at a cost of $.79 CENTS. It’s called GREED.

  3. ‘Experts say the Phoenix market remains a sellers’ market and they see no end in sight. ‘Anyone who is expecting prices to fall is likely to be very disappointed by the current state of affairs,’ said the Cromford Report, noting: ‘Asking prices are being cut at quite a high rate, but asking prices are often overly optimistic anyway, especially for homes that have just been listed’

    People actually pay for this “report”.

    1. “People actually pay for this ‘report’.”

      A list of people stupid enough to willingly pay for this report can become a lender’s road to riches if the proper money mining techniques are utilized.

    2. Well I do agree with this part, because no matter what market I look at, the mls is just littered with overpriced properties. I have not seen a single listing that is even remotely affordable or a “good deal” insofar as the buyer is concerned:

      ‘Asking prices are being cut at quite a high rate, but asking prices are often overly optimistic anyway, especially for homes that have just been listed’

      1. “but asking prices are often overly optimistic anyway”

        This has been a realtor friend’s war cry the past few years when I confront her with price reductions I’d find. “Oh, that one was overpriced but the overall market won’t have a downturn.” This past year’s been really fun as she can no longer deny what’s happening.

    3. In the minds of many RE professionals, It appears there is still optimism and confidence in continued price increases in home prices. Even after twelve straight months of y-o-y increases in inventory San Diego county, I see houses coming on the market listed significantly above the 2018 peak. A 700/sq ft. The high last year was ~550-600$/sq ft. Everything in the “normal” range of expensive sold in the last spring bump in sales activity and everything left is well beyond the reach of any middle class person who hasn’t inherited a large down payment. I expect the sales numbers to return to the previous diminishing trend. There is just nothing affordable on the market and the last herd of greater fools was just stampeded into the asset bubble abattoir by the lure of lower interest rates and easy debt financing.

  4. RE: Feb., ’19 EHS: Huge bounce in the Existing House Sales data.
    My comments:
    1) EHS data are not a leading indicator like NHS, PHS, but bounce expected for temporary reasons.
    2) The Fed caved both 1/4/19 and 2/21/19. Rate hikes are done and balance sheet will remain north of $3.5T. Stick a fork in it. So much for “normalization”. BTW, that $3.5T is effectively debt monetization, which is the historical end-game strategy for banana republics. So the economy is so “strong” that it couldn’t even handle a 2.5% Fed Funds Rate? 3m/10Y yield curve inverting… The Fed is a day late and a few $T short.
    3) Fed cave boosted stock market and “wealth effect” temporarily, but “consumers” (I never liked that term) are tapped out on credit. Debt saturation.
    4) Lower mortgage rates boosted house sales temporarily.
    5) EHS still down YoY for past 12 mo.
    6) We’re heading into recession. The Fed knows it and can’t stop it. It’s harder to buy a house when you lose your job or credit tightens more because banks don’t want to lend then. It’s just coincidence, of course, that stock market crashes and severe recessions only happen on the GOP watch..
    7) Buyer’s/Seller’s market just says that housing is cyclical. That’s all. Housing bubble 2.0 has already popped (est. mid-2018) and there’s no “putting the toothpaste back in the tube.” Short-term, non-leading data doesn’t change the macro view.
    8) Economic recession is proportional in magnitude to the debt increase during the previous economic expansion.
    9) More better buyer;s market coming for all bubble asset classes.
    10) Sit tight. Watch the show via Ben’s HBB blog as the process unfolds again (like in housing bubble 1.0). Grab a craft beer, some popcorn and find a comfortable chair. One can only hope that tar and feathers (at a minimum) await the global central banks. I think the French did it best…

    3. “….(like in housing bubble 1.0)…”

      If you listen to the REIC, the Chinese will bail USA out by buying R/E and UST. What’s there not to like? <:((

    4. Went shopping for a new Ford pickup. Ford is so confident in the economy and “consumer” that they wanted 15-25% down so I’d be in a good equity position.

      What, your assest prices looking shaky and don’t want calls asking where to leave Ford Motor Credit’s truck with the keys in it?!

      Hahahaha

    5. I recommend a book entitled “A Short History of Financial Euphoria” by Galbraith. Even though he was a socialist, this book has some great insights and edifying history lessons. Unfortunately, the architects of bubbles seldom are held accountable. The history of bubbles is long and depressingly repetitive in its outcomes. This bubble will most likely end in the same way as previous bubbles. Don’t bet money on the culprits having to experience the consequences of their own behavior. That job falls to those on lower rungs of the ladder,

    1. Interesting data points:

      Inventory +178% y/y

      Median $ -25% y/y

      All this against a backdrop (as told by the REIC) that all the “hot” money from China is headed towards Irvine.

      As a 40+ year resident of Irvine, all I can see are more listings and more price reductions. Is “cold” the new “hot”?

  7. ‘Luxury home sales fell in the two formerly hot housing markets of Vancouver and Toronto, as well as Calgary, in the first couple months of the new year…’Well, I don’t think it was completely a soft landing, but it was certainly not a catastrophic landing’

    We are coming up on three years since the Vancouver blow-out peak. The REIC up there has been saying prices were going up ever since. The lies never stop and you can’t understand what’s really happening unless that is taken into account. And these are statistics, which means they are purposefully making stuff up.

    ‘The slump is over in the housing market…Better times are ahead for home buyers.’

    Good morning Larry.

    1. The ‘entire’ (meaning folks that have lived there more that 20 years) in good Vancover neighbourhoods need this to not crash. They are counting on ‘extracting’ equity to live their lives for the next 20 years.

      They will be getting desperate by next winter

    2. “…Yun said. ‘Better times are ahead for home buyers.’ ”

      For once, he’s right! 🙂 As a potential buyer I look forward to better times and more affordable homes.

  8. Not sure if In Colorado(?) is still around but one of my old buddies from the STK->SUN->Oracle days just got blown out after 21 years in Broomfield, CO. And he was one of the gurus…the kind that is normally always safe. Something’s not right.

    1. You’re right. And so it begins…
      https://northmantrader.com/2018/11/13/its-coming/
      It’s Coming
      By Sven Henrich on November 13, 2018

      “But then something happens at the end of each cycle. Corporations have a harder and harder time keeping pace with the high expectations. It’s called peak profit growth. One can squeeze only so much profit growth out of each cycle. And now, in this cycle, the artificially induced profit growth results in 2018 are not sustainable into 2019.

      So what, you might ask, will companies do to maximize their profit growth in a challenging comparison environment, an environment where they are facing higher costs and margin pressures due to a myriad of reasons? Think rising rates, trade wars, difficulty to find new talent, etc.

      You already know the answer: It’s called rightsizing, operational efficiency and a number of other clever guises designed to avoid the term layoffs. And no it doesn’t suddenly happen in size. It starts small, but it begins nevertheless. You just have to look for the signs.”

      1. The good news is that the US demographics are such that there will be an almost endless need for caregivers in hospitals, nursing facilities, and rehab centers for anyone who gets laid off. The bad news is that these CNA aide jobs pay about $25k-$30k a year.

  9. ‘The area around Scottsdale, Ariz. had 349 homes on the market at or above $3 million as of February 1—an all-time high. Homes built before 2012 are selling at steep discounts—sometimes almost 50%, and many owners end up selling for less than they paid to build their homes’

    50%. Still no bubble Wall Street Journal?

    ‘You had this wave of homes built that now just don’t make sense for a lot of the people who bought them’

    Well, it was cheaper than renting.

    1. There’s no way a home built before 2012 is now selling at 50% off what someone bought it for 7+ years ago.

      50% off asking price? That’s also absurd.

      And I like how it says “almost 50”. So 49? 39? 42.5? Any number under 50 could be “almost 50”. How many sold at that discount? Was it 1, was it 100? 1000?

      As usual the MSM throws out numbers with zero context around them.

      1. A 50% price decline is absurd?

        Not considering run down 20year old houses are priced 400% higher than construction cost ($50/sq ft for lot, labor, materials and profit).

  10. Buyers always set the price, but sometimes they go a bit crazy. Buyers reverting to making rational decisions is also known as the end of a cycle.

    This tax law change is going to just murder homes over the conforming loan limit +10% down in many places. First time home buyers aren’t going to have 20% down generally so that’s a good chunk of CA. Also, these 10% down Jumbo loans are going to become scarce once prices start falling because lenders are pretty much guaranteed to have uninsured loans with the borrower underwater a year after moving in. Or PMI will just become outrageous. Divorce? Job loss? Short-sales are going to make a comeback soon.

  11. “…Lori Fowler, a realtor at Coldwell Banker Global Luxury…”

    “…‘We are definitely having a lot of buyers here in the market that are definitely swooping up all of the luxury inventory,’ Fowler said….”

    Riddle me this Lori Fowler, does “swooping up” mean that buyers fall out of the sky Batman style with large bags of $100 bills to “swoop up” a property?

    Please say its true, as your assurance would explain this video:

    Human Meteor Skydives Through Skyscrapers

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIB_smaDhx4

  12. Your property taxes are way too high and you can’t afford them and you are not minting any more sweet equity is NOT a reason…

    ****

    “has been fielding calls from homeowners who want to appeal their property taxes. Some of them may even have a case.”

  13. “Fowler said despite the recent downturn in sales, there is no reason to fret about the increasing number of for sale signs. It is not 2008 all over again.”

    “‘We are definitely having a lot of buyers here in the market that are definitely swooping up all of the luxury inventory,’ Fowler said.”

    Sure Fowler! LOL. Blowing more hot air from your A$$ than your mouth! AOC, terminate this douche as he is contributing to Global WARMING

  14. Here in midwest Oz, Ann Arbor MI, I see that there are now 150 more homes for sale on the MLS (not including some of the sprawl within the overrated school district but with different mailing addresses) than there were a couple of weeks ago, up to almost 700 listings now, and fantasy prices are still in effect, but they seem to have not gone up too much from the fantasy prices of last spring, at least in the low-end.

    This is with the locals ACTIVELY now contemplating getting themselves declared an EPA SuperFund to try and clean up at least the one drinking-water toxin of 1,4-dioxane. They also have levels way over the proposed new state limit on PFAS chemicals that are the hot new water quality issue in MI and elsewhere.
    I cannot imagine being a realtor in this town lately. They’ve always been major liars of course, but now they are selling overpriced homes to people from out of town without warning them that the DRINKING water has toxins that most other places deem completely unacceptable. Amazing.
    I look at the prices and when something comes up that seems reasonable-ish, I still balk because why?! Why commit to anything right now in a toxic town that is looking at a possible new Superfund designation and a .5 *billion* dollar bill if they decide to hook up to a different municipal water system?!
    It’s feeling like some dumping is happening in investor properties, but I cannot tell for sure because I’ve only been watching for a little while. Overloaded on new student apartment towers and new downtown luxury condos (pretty much all rental is student oriented anywhere near downtown), and lots of little infill condo projects, so I think people must be hoping to unload their gross unkempt student house shacks to folks hoping to build new little retirement shacks for UM alum who want to walk to the “Big House”. It’s getting increasingly gross and weird here, but then the b-school is named after Stephen Ross, lol, so….
    And the fake liberals in government here keep pretending they want to create affordable housing so the servants and school teachers can afford to not commute for hours each day, but despite their education they cannot seem to figure it out!

    1. lol, cancel that about asking prices being not much increased! I guess I’ve just stopped even considering that someone could think they’d get that price, but hey interest rates are headed down again, so monthly payments will be the same and isn’t that how you should purchase *anything*, just by monthly payment considerations?!

  15. There’s a Friday afternoon swoon in the markets. Just a blip, or could this be the start of something big?

    1. Perhaps the effects of the Fed’s most recent “fix” (ie, not raising rates for the foreseeable future; halting balance sheet reduction) are already wearing off, after like what – 3 months?

      I’m just floored as to how PMs are not skyrocketing. I’m heavily invested there and have been shafted for the last 10 or so years. I so badly want to prove that I can stay solvent for longer than the market can stay irrational. Gold was once $1800. Even $1500 would do it for me. But every time it appears to soar it gets smacked back down within a day or two. So frustrating.

      2. “I’m just floored as to how PMs are not skyrocketing.”

        This is closely related to the inverted yield curve. Mr Market is trying to price in a recession to Treasury yields, which isn’t exactly a bullish signal for assets that serve as inflation hedges, such as stocks, housing, or gold.

    1. Can’t stop it once it starts; just like 2000-2, 2008-9. Stock buybacks included; should be illegal (again). Humpty Dumpty.

      https://www.hussmanfunds.com/comment/mc190303/
      Ground Rules of Existence
      John P. Hussman, Ph.D. | March 2019

      “December’s steep selloff was a rather small reminder that when doubt emerges, it emerges quickly. One has to remember that the current market capitalization of U.S. corporate equities now stands at $40 trillion, twice the level of U.S. Gross Domestic Product – the highest multiple in history (the multiple peaked at 1.9 in 2000). Investors are vastly overestimating the effectiveness of monetary policy if they believe that the Federal Reserve buying a few trillion in Treasury bonds can reliably stop “sudden efforts at escape” among investors holding $40 trillion in securities that the Fed cannot buy, and that even the U.S. government could not buy without a vote by Congress to effectively nationalize U.S. corporations.”

      1. “Investors are vastly overestimating the effectiveness of monetary policy if they believe that the Federal Reserve buying a few trillion in Treasury bonds can reliably stop “sudden efforts at escape” among investors holding $40 trillion in securities that the Fed cannot buy, and that even the U.S. government could not buy without a vote by Congress to effectively nationalize U.S. corporations.”

        Uhh, excuse me:

        “Former Federal Reserve Board member Robert Heller, in the Wall Street Journal, opined that “Instead of flooding the entire economy with liquidity, and thereby increasing the danger of inflation, the Fed could support the stock market directly by buying market averages in the futures market, thereby stabilizing the market as a whole.”

        https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Working_Group_on_Financial_Markets

        1. Also, while the Fed is restricted from directly purchasing stocks to support the market, other central banks that cooperate with the Fed are not. There aren’t any laws the banks can’t circumvent with relative impunity. Look no further than the number of times they’ve been caught laundering heaps of drug money for the cartels.

  19. At least falling mortgage rates will give a few more knifecatchers the opportunity to buy in the red-hot spring sales season!

    Yield curve recession indicator flashes red as 10-year yield falls below 3-month yield
    Published: Mar 22, 2019 11:56 a.m. ET
    By Sunny Oh

    The yield curve as measured by the spread between the 3-month Treasury bill (TMUBMUSD03M, -0.64%) and the 10-year note (TMUBMUSD10Y, -2.75%) inverted for the first time since 2007, following a sharp rally in longer-dated notes.
    …

  21. ““A man in southeastern China is fuming after discovering that a sink in his new ‘luxury apartment’ is actually smaller than his hand. Last month, flats in the neighborhood reportedly sold for an average of 34,980 yuan ($5,210) per square meter, while three-bedroom units cost three million yuan ($446,960).””

    Amazing!

    This apartment is in Guangzhou, one of China’s wealthiest cities and well situated near Shenzhen/Hong Kong. The average monthly salary in Guangzhou in 2017 was around 7,200 RMB a month ($1,068). Annual salary of 86,000 RMB ($12,816). Keep in mind these are averages in a country with very high income inequality. Median measurements would be more useful, but for some reason no one in China publishes that number…

    But OK, that 86,000 RMB a year is pre-tax income, but let’s pretend taxes are 0% in China. That means 3 bedroom tiny 85m^2 apartment is a whopping 34 times income. And that is a really small apartment in Guangzhou. Most 3 bedrooms I’ve been inside are 120m^2 at least. An 85m^2 is normal for a two bedroom or a luxury one bedroom.

    But hey, prices will keep going up forever and this guy can sell the apartment to someone in 20 years at 74 times income. Then that person can sell it in another 20 years at 100 times income, then…

    1. That’s called its called the “Greater Fool Theory”….problem is eventually you run out of greater fools…

      1. There is a sucker born every minute though. Oh wait, I guess the supply of suckers is drying up in the US as the birthrate is at a historical all-time low.

          1. Yes, and Guatemalan migrants will definitely support these bubble housing prices. 4 families to a house!

    1. “The Investigative Unit surveyed a 20-mile stretch of downtown San Francisco and exposed a dangerous mix of trash, needles, and feces along the city’s streets and sidewalks.”

      Green New Deal ?

  27. This 19-year-old is paying her way through college by naming over 677,000 Chinese babies

    Karen Gilchrist
    CNBC21 March 2019

    Jessup was inspired to start the business in 2015, when she was just 15. Six months later, she had made more than $60,000 naming 200,000 babies. Since then, she has named a total of 677,900 (and counting) and racked up estimated revenues of over $400,000.

    At the time, Jessup was traveling with her father in China, when one of his business associates, a Mrs. Wang, asked for help in naming her three-year-old daughter.

    “I was honored and surprised,” said Jessup. “It seemed like a really important thing to do.”

    Wanting to choose an “appropriate” name, Jessup asked Wang to share a little more about her hopes for her daughter. Most of all, said Wang, she wanted people to be surprised by the things her daughter could achieve. So, after careful thought, Jessup suggested “Eliza,” inspired by the fictionalized heroine from “My Fair Lady,” Eliza Doolittle.

    https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/19-old-paying-her-way-101419030.html

    I will be modeling my Chinese baby name business after Bluto.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RCfUDQ8twvI

  28. Given the inverted yield curve, does it seem rather silly to worry about 6% mortgage rates anytime soon?

      2. And thank you for the video link. I remember the song from my childhood, but don’t think I really was old enough to understand it back when it was popular.

  29. Can someone please explain why anyone would lend out money at negative yields? Wouldn’t it make more sense to just stuff the money under a mattress?

    1. Wsj.com
      Markets
      Twin Troubles Strike the Bond Market
      Negative yields on German bunds and an unusual dynamic in the Treasury market are adding to investor nervousness
      Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve
      Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve
      Amid a shaky marketplace, investors are eyeing the yield curve for signs of economic stability. History shows that when the yield curve inverts, a recession may soon follow. Photo Composite: Stephanie Swart for The Wall Street Journal.
      By Paul J. Davies and
      Avantika Chilkoti
      Updated March 22, 2019 2:31 p.m. ET

      The global bond market flashed two prominent warning signals on the economy Friday, spooking investors and feeding a selloff in stocks—particularly bank stocks.

      The yield on 10-year German government bonds, the European benchmark, turned negative for the first time since 2016. Across the Atlantic, the 10-year Treasury yield fell below that of three-month Treasury bills. This “inversion,” which was last seen in August 2007, is considered to be a reliable predictor of recessions in the U.S.
      …
      To Read the Full Story
      Subscribe

    2. I believe many large investment funds are limited to a certain percentage of cash they can hold. They have to put the money somewhere so, if they are antipicipating a broad based asset price deflation, they put what otherwise would be cash reserves where it will lose the least, high rated negative yield bonds. Someone please correct me here if I am wrong.

      1. That sounds right. It makes little sense for individual investors to invest at negative yields, but large financial firms face financial operating constraints which don’t limit households.

        Another consideration is anticipated inflation or deflation. For example, if dollars were expected to experience inflation and the Euro was expected to experience deflation, it could be more beneficial to buy German bonds at negative yields and enjoy the relative increase in currency against the dollar, than to invest in Treasurys at positive yields.

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