thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

We Hear The Words But No Longer Hear The Music

A report from KXTV in California. “‘These homes we’re in now… when they went up originally in 2018 just before the pandemic, they were running anywhere from high $300,000 to low $400,000,’ realtor Dana Harward explained as she drove around a popular suburban neighborhood in Natomas. Those same homes are selling for double. ‘This one sold for $745,000,’ Harward said, pointing to a home. ‘It felt like a piranha feeding frenzy.'”

“Today, rates sit around 6%, which means interest rates are still double from where they stood during the pandemic. ‘It’s completely changed the market,’ said appraiser and housing analyst Ryan Lundquist. ‘Earlier in the year we were reporting really aggressive housing stats, massive demand and then mortgage rates said, ‘Hold my beer.’ And we’re in this market where the honeymoon is over. It’s like they’re targeting housing as the sacrificial lamb on the altar.'”

The Real Deal on California. “Coretrust Capital Partners lost control of its prized 48-story Downtown Los Angeles office tower in foreclosure to Oaktree, according to a source familiar with the matter. The foreclosure is among the growing signs of distress facing the Downtown Los Angeles office market, which has struggled since the onset of the pandemic. About 210,000 square feet, or 23 percent, of 444 South Flower is currently vacant, according to a LoopNet listing. Oaktree, led by Howard Marks, is known for buying the debt of troubled companies. Marks told the Financial Times this summer that he is ‘starting to behave aggressively’ because loan prices have fallen.”

The Tampa Bay Times. “This time last year, it seemed like the entire Tampa Bay area was caught up in a home buying frenzy. But as we enter 2023, the tide has changed considerably. If you’ve had no luck finding a home in your budget on the resale market, consider broadening your search to include spec homes. ‘Builders are desperate right now to sell because they don’t want to lose money on the construction they’ve already started,’ said Lei Wedge, a professor of finance at the University of South Florida Muma College of Business. This means many builders are dropping their sales prices. Wedge said some builders are even offering to subsidize mortgage rates for a certain number of months in order to seal the deal.”

The Review Journal. “Las Vegas homebuilders ended 2022 with sharp drops in sales and construction plans from year-earlier levels, capping a dramatic change for the once-heated market. In Southern Nevada, sales totals dropped hard in 2022. Sellers increasingly slashed their prices and available inventory soared. Amid the slowdown, builders offered more incentives to buyers and higher commissions to agents who brought them in, real estate sources said. ‘We are all aware of the general state of the housing market these days, and that 2022 showed a steady decline in activity on basically all fronts,’ the firm’s president, Andrew Smith, said in the report.”

From Contractor Mag. “Multifamily starts are predicted to fall in 2023, following an unsustainable high level of production last year, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB). There are currently 943,000 apartments under construction, up 24.9% compared to a year ago (755,000). This is the highest count of apartments under construction since 1974.”

The San Antonio Report in Texas. “Apartment renters soon could see relief after more than a year of extreme growth in rent costs in San Antonio and across the country. The average apartment rent in San Antonio during 2022 rose to $1,200 as the cost of rent grew by 15.5% in 2021 and at the start of 2022. That’s an ‘unheard of’ amount for the area, said Cindi Reed, director of sales at Apartmentdata.com. ‘Everything was extreme — we were just riding this wave in 2021,’ Reed said. ‘Prices kept going up. Renters were just paying whatever was asked.'”

“During the last half of 2022, however, rent prices began to level off. Interest rates started to climb. Occupancy levels, which also rose in 2021, fell 2.7% by December of last year. ‘Everything’s just kind of stopped,’ she said. In San Antonio, the 2021 absorption rate nearly doubled as demand for apartment housing outstripped supply. Then, last year, the absorption rate dropped into negative territory, indicating declining demand as almost 6,000 new units were built. ‘We all are watching absorption because if we’re overbuilding, that’s a problem,’ Reed said.”

The Detroit Free Press. “Flagstar Bank’s new owner confirmed Tuesday that it did a significant number of employee layoffs late last week when it restructured its mortgage division to adjust to the nationwide downturn in the mortgage business since 2021. Flagstar’s mortgage division is now under 800 employees, down from a high of 2,100 in 2021, back when mortgage rates were at historic lows and the business was booming. ‘We are in one of the toughest mortgage markets of the last 25 years,’ said Lee Smith, a longtime Flagstar executive and now president of the combined bank’s mortgage division.”

The New York Post. “Real-estate brokers are heading for the door in droves as the nation’s housing market cools — even in the usually scorching market of Miami. The number of ‘active’ agents in the Florida city plunged by 36% in the fourth quarter of last year compared to the same span in 2021, according to a new study. Only 20% of all 22,286 Miami brokers were active in the fourth quarter of 2022, the study found. Agent Story found that the number of active agents has cratered in other major markets as well, including in Los Angeles. The firm found that there were 27% percent fewer active brokers in the California city in the fourth quarter of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021.”

Beat of Hawaii. “This week, Hawaii’s largest, fast-growing, and now controversial vacation rental management company, Vacasa, laid off 17% of its 7,600 U.S. employees in, among other things, a sign of weakness for the Hawaii vacation rental sector. It isn’t clear whether that will be enough to fix the company’s profound problems. Not only that, but the industry has been struck with waning demand and downward price pressure after rates rose too high, too fast. Vacasa was not long ago the darling of the vacation rental sector. It seemed that nothing could stop them until very recently. Sales growth as recently at the end of 2021 was a staggering 81% year over year.”

“Last fall, they started layoffs and warned of weakening sales and unexpectedly high costs. The CEO, Rob Greyber, also warned that many other problems would take time to get in check. As a result of this and vacation industry-wide pressure, among other things, Vacasa’s stock had taken a beating, down 82% compared to when it went public. The company has also lost most of its value, from $4B to $760M. Greyber said ‘I am optimistic about Vacasa’s potential.’ BOH: We hear the words but no longer hear the music.”

“When we last wrote about Vacasa, some of the comments included: ‘We rented a Vacasa property… and it was in bad condition when we arrived. We didn’t stay in the house, and they have not returned us a reasonable refund. Not sure we will ever use them again.’ ‘Not surprising that Vacasa stock plummeted. I have used them 2x’s. Needless to say, I was very disappointed when they changed weekly rentals to daily rental rates that were almost twice the amount than before. So I basically paid the same amount for 4 days that I used to pay for 7. Especially since I found numerous cleaning flaws. Kitchen stove vent/fan caked with bugs/grease that could fall into your pot while cooking. Just 1 example. I clean for a living, so am very detail oriented on specific things that really matter. I actually got a cleaning refund a year ago because of ‘terrible cleaning’ by their team.'”

“It’s worth noting that there is a Vacasa Fraud victims page on Facebook for those interested. The most recent comment on that page from two days ago reads, ‘Vacasa is looking to sell and was already rejected by at least one company, an international vacation rental company.'”

The Toronto Star. “Areas in the GTA suburbs that saw skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic are now facing a real estate crash with Scugog leading the pack at a whopping 44 per cent plummet in average sales price from the February 2022 peak to December 2022. According to data from the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board, all home prices across the GTA have plunged an average of 21 per cent to $1.05 million in December from the sales price peak last February of $1.33 million as the Bank of Canada rapidly hiked interest rates to fight inflation.”

“During the pandemic, with more people working remotely, there was a flight from urban centres and a subsequent spike in suburban house prices as homeowners pursued a bigger bang for their buck, experts say. That run-up, until February 2022, saw prices skyrocket in Durham, Peel, and York. The bubble burst when the economy reopened and interest rates began to climb.”

“‘There was a sizable shift in the pandemic for homebuyer demand. Typically, the higher the rise in prices the larger the fall,’ said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer of Royal LePage. ‘With that level of price increase during the pandemic, the decreases look outsized compared to the city where there wasn’t quite the same pressure on demand.'”

The Sydney Morning Herald in Australia. “A higher-than-expected inflation report has really set the cat among the financial market pigeons as 2023 kicks off, with markets now pricing another three interest rate hikes this year. To which I say: steady on, fellas. It’s a long story, but in late 2019, our prudential regulator relaxed the ‘serviceability test’ lenders must apply to new home loans. This enabled borrowers to load up with even more debt than before. Previously, lenders had to test your cash flow (income minus expenses) to make sure you could still keep up with your minimum mortgage repayments if interest rates surged to 7.25 per cent.”

“That ‘buffer,’ however, was relaxed to just 2.5 percentage points above the prevailing interest rate. As interest rates plunged during COVID, particularly on fixed rate loans, the hurdle for new borrowers to service a loan amount fell dramatically.These borrowers are already getting caught out – big time – as rates rise. Our official cash rate is already a full 3 percentage points above its all-time lows. Get it? Anyone who borrowed at the very bottom of the rates cycle and was stress-tested under the old 2.5 percentage point rule is already underwater.”

“Many of these borrowers must already be living in mortgage hell – a situation where they do not have enough income left, after expenses, to pay the mortgage. Many will find other ways to cope, such as increasing their income by taking on side hustles, second jobs, or switching to more highly paid jobs in a red-hot jobs market. Spending can also be cut. Although, it must be said, the assumptions lenders are required to make about borrower spending in the loan application process already assume a fairly humble lifestyle.'”

“For borrowers with no backup options, hardship arrangements can be entered into with lenders. Loans can be made ‘interest-only’ for a time. As any banker will tell you, it’s a fairly protracted process to ‘ actually repossess a home in Australia. And it may be in the interest of banks to help keep borrowers afloat, given that – particularly on recent purchases – money recovered through sales may not even cover the debt.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 152 Comments

  1. ‘they were running anywhere from high $300,000 to low $400,000,’ realtor Dana Harward explained as she drove around a popular suburban neighborhood in Natomas. Those same homes are selling for double. ‘This one sold for $745,000’

    That’s some sound lending right there. The only way prices could go up so much in a short time is massive appraisal fraud.

    1. “The only way prices could go up so much in a short time is massive appraisal fraud.”

      The best part about that reality is everyone lining up here and everywhere else declaring, “I don’t know how that works.”🤣🤣🤣

      Mount Kisco, NY Housing Prices Crater 27% YOY As NYC Suburbs Experience Collapsing Demand

      https://www.movoto.com/mount-kisco-ny/market-trends/

    2. California reminds me of a news clip of a train in Iraq during the Gulf war, blindly heading for a bridge over a river, but the bridge had been recently destroyed by a JDAM.

    1. You will eat no eggs.

      Remember the year 2019 when we had a mostly functioning economy?

      “This sucker could go down” — George W. Bush

        1. Speaking of eggs, does anyone have anecdotes about how hens fed with feed from corporate suppliers like Purina don’t lay eggs, but they resume laying after switching to a locally sourced feed? I know of a few people who have experienced this.

          2. Pfizer can fix those hens

            There is speculation that corporate feed has ovulation preventing hormones in it, though some say that poor nutritional quality might explain the lack of eggs.

            Also from what I read, commercial farms do not use corporate feed, that they buy the ingredients and make their own.

          3. I posted an article about this before seeing your comment. Hubby’s buddy is having the same problem. Hubby volunteered me to make homemade chicken feed in exchange for eggs. I did some research. Free-ranging helps.

          4. Zero eggs. Not just fewer. Nationwide.

            IDK about fires. The farm chickens around here are laying. I do know the farmers trick them in winter with lights in the hen house. That’s all.

            You can be sure they are not buying BigAg formulations. The local mill mixes to order without any secret sauce. Menonites.

          5. The vast majority of us don’t have Menonites from whom to buy our eggs, but the last 3 years have made it abundantly clear to resource as much as possible locally.

          6. You can be sure they are not buying BigAg formulations.

            I have read that commercial egg farms make their own feed, because it’s cheaper than buying from big ag.

            The notion that big ag chicken feed would be tainted so as to stifle egg laying would be absurd under normal circumstance . But we are not under normal circumstances. I’m hearing locally of a lot of people thinking about building chicken coops in their backyards.

          9. You can be sure they are not buying BigAg formulations. The local mill mixes to order without any secret sauce.

            Already looking into it.

  3. ‘This enabled borrowers to load up with even more debt than before. Previously, lenders had to test your cash flow (income minus expenses) to make sure you could still keep up with your minimum mortgage repayments if interest rates surged to 7.25 per cent’

    ‘That ‘buffer,’ however, was relaxed to just 2.5 percentage points above the prevailing interest rate. As interest rates plunged during COVID, particularly on fixed rate loans, the hurdle for new borrowers to service a loan amount fell dramatically’

    It wasn’t just the interest rates. New Zealand, K-da, most every country put the pedal to the metal. It’ll probably be fine.

      2. And borrowers took the bait!

        They always will. That’s why there are supposed to be lending standards – because these mouthbreathers will hang themselves any chance they get. The standards are not necessarily to prevent these people from destroying themselves, but to prevent them from setting the prices for the rest of us who don’t commit financial suicide.

  4. ‘Areas in the GTA suburbs that saw skyrocketing home prices during the pandemic are now facing a real estate crash with Scugog leading the pack at a whopping 44 per cent plummet in average sales price from the February 2022 peak to December 2022’

    The YOY a$$ poundings for these igloo clusters is coming into view.

  5. ‘Vacasa’s stock had taken a beating, down 82% compared to when it went public. The company has also lost most of its value, from $4B to $760M’

    It’s time shares Rob. You don’t even have a self driving flying taxi to fall back on.

    1. A couple of weeks ago i browsed the terms of a contract for a vacasa rental in northern wi and it was crazy. No smoking -anywhere-on the property, arbitration clauses, they could charge your credit card at will seemingly if they were dissatisfied, cameras everywhere ….

  6. 𝗦𝗽𝗼𝗸𝗮𝗻𝗲, 𝗪𝗔 𝗛𝗼𝘂𝘀𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗣𝗿𝗶𝗰𝗲𝘀 𝗖𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝟮𝟴% 𝗬𝗢𝗬 𝗔𝘀 𝗔𝗽𝗽𝗿𝗮𝗶𝘀𝗮𝗹 𝗙𝗿𝗮𝘂𝗱 𝗕𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀 𝗪𝗮𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗼𝗻, 𝗢𝗿𝗲𝗴𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗜𝗱𝗮𝗵𝗼

    https://www.movoto.com/spokane-wa/market-trends/

    𝘈𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘚𝘱𝘰𝘬𝘢𝘯𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘢 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦𝘳 𝘴𝘢𝘪𝘥, “𝘚𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘴𝘰 𝘣𝘳𝘰𝘬𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘯’𝘵 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘵𝘸𝘰 𝘥𝘪𝘮𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘳𝘶𝘣 𝘵𝘰𝘨𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳. 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘫𝘶𝘴𝘵 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘰𝘶𝘵 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘴𝘦 𝘢𝘵 𝘢𝘯𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘴𝘵.”

  7. “Only 20% of all 22,286 Miami brokers were active in the fourth quarter of 2022”

    This same article calls the Miami market “usually scorching” like that is some kind of semi-permanent condition. Who writes these article? LOLZ

  8. ‘And it may be in the interest of banks to help keep borrowers afloat, given that – particularly on recent purchases – money recovered through sales may not even cover the debt’

    Morer sound lending!

    ‘and then mortgage rates said, ‘Hold my beer.’ And we’re in this market where the honeymoon is over. It’s like they’re targeting housing as the sacrificial lamb on the altar’

    But central banks won’t let shack prices fall?

  9. “On January 25, at the age of 6, Anastasia Weaver passed away unexpectedly in the Emergency Room of Akron Children’s Hospital in Boardman, Ohio, surrounded by her family.

    Anastasia’s mother, Jessica Day-Weaver, said that her husband, Andrew Weaver, found Anastasia unresponsive around 6 a.m. on Wednesday when he got home.

    Anastasia was born on November 11, 2016, in Boardman, Ohio, according to an online obituary. She had an identical twin sister, Caitlin.

    Her mother, is a nurse at Akron Children’s Hospital, in Boardman, according to COVID Blog.

    In a now-private Facebook post, Weaver revealed that she and her twin had received the COVID vaccine.

    On June 29, 2022, Anastasia had a seizure.

    On July 15, 2022, Mrs. Day-Weaver reported that despite being on medicine to prevent seizures, Anastasia was still having constant “tiny seizures.”

    On September 17th, 2022, Mrs. Day-Weaver reported that the entire vaccinated family had contracted COVID-19 which lasted for three weeks.

    On January 2, 2023, Anastasia was in the hospital for five days, according to Mrs. Day-Weaver.

    On January 25, she died unexpectedly.”

    https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2023/01/tragic-fully-vaccinated-boosted-6-year-old-child-dies-suddenly/

    What is his NAME? His NAME is Albert Bourla, which sounds vaguely French / Western European.

    Too many cohencidences happening here to ignore, the #Noticing will continue…

    1. The vaccines were outdated as early as Jan of 2021, according to Dr Peter McCollugh.
      So not only were the shots dangerous, they mandated people to take a expired vaccine.
      Also interesting that the tape that exposes that Pflizer is involved with a form of gain of function has gone viral in China, yet its been censored in US. . Apparently China and India rejected the Pflizer clot shot.
      So, its not surprising that totally useless and expired vaccines were pushed on the public and the vaccinated got Covid .
      Than they came up with the lie that the fake vaccines reduced symptoms and kept you from dying in spite of you getting Covid..
      And so many whistle blowers in medical system have testified that it was the vaccinated that that ended up being hospitalized r for Covid .
      So, big Pharmacy is a criminal enterprise in cahoots with government to cram dangerous snake oil vaccines down as many arms as possible as the biggest cash cow fraud in history as well as genocidal crimes against humanity….

      And the pre -planned global panademic ,that was a bio-weapon , either faked or real, , is part of One World Order medical t tyranny fraud and climate change fraud as a weapon of mass destruction to enslave as well as murder . They arent going to take the fake vaccines off the market because they want to put it into everything.
      They aren’t going to take fake vaccine technology off market because they are planning more panademics to take over world.
      No matter how much data that proves the vaccines are toxic failures , they will ignore or censor the data and proceed with their plans.
      And just because Joe Biden has declared he is going to stop the emergency declaration on Covid on May 11th 2023 , doesn’t mean that a new panademic isn’t in the works.
      So, because governments and the United Nations WHO are corrupted by Private Parties to defraud the world by fraudulent narratives , you have to protect yourself from this invasion by these fraudsters.
      This is not Science, this is war against the targeted humanity by this terrorist cult trying to bring on a One World Order dictorship .

    2. Albert Bourla was in the public streets attending WEF at Davos without a security detail.

      Some info for Mr. Weaver.

  10. ‘We are in one of the toughest mortgage markets of the last 25 years,’

    Hey all you loan officers! How do those $1500 car payments look now? And I was in the biz 25 years ago. If this is worse than 2007 – 2010…..you’re done.

  11. What Goes Up Also Comes Down: The Heavy Hand of Bubble Symmetry

    Charles Hugh Smith – Of Two Minds Blog

    January 31, 2023

    Should bubble symmetry play out in the S&P 500, we can anticipate a steep 45% drop to pre-bubble levels, followed by another leg down as the speculative frenzy is slowly extinguished.

    Bubble symmetry is, well, interesting. The dot-com stock market bubble circa 1995-2003 offers a classic example of bubble symmetry, though there are many others as well. The key feature of bubble symmetry is the entire bubble retraces in roughly the same time frame as it took to soar to absurd heights.

    Nobody could see bubble symmetry coming, of course. At the peak and for some time after, bubbles are viewed as the natural order of markets and so they should continue expanding forever.

    Alas, the natural order of markets is mean reversion and the collapse of whatever is unsustainable. This includes speculative manias, credit bubbles, asset bubbles and projections of endless expansion of margins, profits, sales, consumption, tax revenues and everything else under the sun.

    There’s a well-worn psychological path in the collapse of bubbles. This path more or less tracks the Kubler-Ross phases of denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance, though the momentum of speculative frenzy demands extended displays of hubris and over-confidence, i.e. the first wobble “must be the bottom.”

    There’s also repeated spikes of false hope that “the bottom is in” and the bubble is starting to reflate.
    This pattern repeats until the speculative fever finally breaks and all those betting on a resumption of the bubble mania finally give up.

    This process often takes about the same length of time that it took for the bubble mania to become ubiquitous. If it took about 2.5 years for the bubble to expand, it takes about 2.5 years for the bubble to pop and the market to return to its pre-bubble level.

    Once again we hear reasonable-sounding claims being used to support predictions of a never-ending rise in stock valuations.
    What hasn’t changed is humans are still running Wetware 1.0 which has default settings for extremes of emotion, particularly manic euphoria, running with the herd (a.k.a. FOMO, fear of missing out) and panic / fear.

    Despite all the assurances to the contrary, all bubbles pop because they are based in human emotions. We attempt to rationalize them by invoking the real world, but the reality is speculative manias are manifestations of human emotions and the feedback of running in a herd of social animals.

    With all this in mind, let’s consider the current bubbles in stocks and housing. Should bubble symmetry play out in the S&P 500, we can anticipate a steep 45% drop to pre-bubble levels, followed by another leg down as the speculative frenzy is slowly extinguished.

    Housing is notoriously “sticky” when it comes to price declines, as sellers show remarkable tenacity in the denial phase. The last few greater fools buying on the first modest decline spur the hopes of sellers that the flood of mania-driven buyers is about to resume, but manias don’t last nor do they resume.

    If bubble symmetry plays out, we can anticipate a relatively steep drop of about 30% to pre-mania levels, followed by a longer decline to pre-Bubble #1 and Bubble #2 levels, a roughly 60% drop from bubble heights.

    Such declines are of course “impossible.” There are always endless reasons why bubbles can’t possibly pop and why 60% declines are impossible, even as history tells us that 60% declines are inevitable, and in the bigger picture, rather modest. It’s the 90% declines that really hurt.

    – Of course no one knows exactly how The Everything Bubble is going to deflate over exactly what timeframe, but asset bubbles always burst and history is a guide.
    – The odds of a “soft landing” are slim in my view, but hope and FOMO spring eternal.

  12. A reader sent these in:

    “Accepting the absurdity of everything around us is one step, a necessary experience: it should not become a dead end. It arouses a revolt that can become fruitful.” – Albert Camus

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1618838674430648320

    Fed reporters prepare for tomorrow press conference…

    https://twitter.com/RudyHavenstein/status/1620496434700365824

    the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed

    https://twitter.com/HoosierTrader/status/1620227353254436866

    1. If I were to bet on what his typical day is, it is something like sitting in the corner rocking chair mumbling and drooling. I think it’s rare that a rock legend of his caliber is still living at 73. Had fentanyl been around back in the 80’s, he’d have been gone back then.

  14. “the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed”

    I think we’ve found a new name for this blog!

    Welcome back Reader!!

  15. “‘Earlier in the year we were reporting really aggressive housing stats, massive demand and then mortgage rates said, ‘Hold my beer.’ And we’re in this market where the honeymoon is over. It’s like they’re targeting housing as the sacrificial lamb on the altar.’”

    It may seem that way to those who had become accustomed to the Bacardi 151 Rum the Fed was pouring into the punchbowl.

    The Fed took away its rum. Time to sober up, bois.

    1. It’s like they’re targeting

      IIRC, Powell has been pretty explicit about a housing reset.

  16. Some commentstors are worried that the stock market may drop if the Fed decides to “go big” on rate hikes.

    Where were they when a decade of Quantitative Easing capped off by a Biblical deluge of pandemic stimulus drove risk asset prices to unsustainable heights?

      1. Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel warns the Dow could drop 1,000 points ‘immediately’ if the Fed goes too big with its next rate hike
        Will Daniel
        Tue, January 31, 2023 at 1:43 PM PST·3 min read
        Spencer Platt—Getty Images

        After a brutal year in 2022, the S&P 500 rose over 6% in January—to the surprise of many Wall Street analysts. But Wharton professor Jeremy Siegel warned on Monday that the good times may not last.

        After the Federal Reserve raised interest rates seven times to fight the rise of inflation last year, Siegel said that investors are betting its tactics have worked. But Siegel warns the Dow could drop 1,000 points “immediately” if the Fed goes too big with its next rate hike.

        Economists and investors are optimistic, and expect the Fed to raise rates by just 25 basis points (bps) on Wednesday in the wake of the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting, where officials convene eight times a year to decide interest rate policy. But Siegel warned that if chairman Jerome Powell chooses to raise interest rates by 50 basis points instead, as he did in December, it could be a disaster for investors.
        …
        https://money.yahoo.com/wharton-professor-jeremy-siegel-warns-214321599.html

        1. If he’s correct, and the market is on a hair trigger for a massive selloff if the Fed raises rates a tiny bit more than widely anticipated, then maybe, just maybe, share prices are still at bubbly valuation levels

          1. The Financial Times
            Opinion Markets Insight
            End the Fed ‘put’
            With the entire credibility of central banking on the line, the focus needs to be on fighting inflation
            Richard Bernstein
            Inflation is back and there is now plenty for Fed chair Jay Powell to do
            Richard Bernstein yesterday
            The writer is chief executive and chief investment officer of Richard Bernstein Advisors

            The Maytag Repairman was a fictional washing machine mechanic who was lonely because no one ever needed to repair a reliable Maytag appliance. Instead of tools, he carried a book of crossword puzzles and cards to play solitaire to combat his boredom.

            For many years, the US Federal Reserve played the role of the Maytag Repairman with respect to inflation. With the expansion of globalisation and the resulting secular disinflation, there wasn’t much for it to do to fight inflation. Rather, it could generously ease monetary policy during periods of financial market volatility without much concern that its efforts to save investors might spur inflation.

            The repeated efforts to curtail financial market volatility led to the term the Fed “put”. Investors viewed the Fed’s behaviour as though the central bank were consistently writing a protective put option to limit investors’ downside risk.

            With perceived guaranteed downside protection, investors rationally took excessive risks because the Fed repeatedly quelled financial market volatility with significantly lower interest rates. Risk-taking often got extreme. There were three significant financial bubbles in the past 25 years — the dotcom boom, the housing market, and the surge in tech companies/growth stocks/cryptocurrencies before recent sharp corrections.
            …
            Investors have been acting as though the central bank is ready, willing and able to supply the easy money protection of the Fed put. The growing notion that inflation has peaked and the central bank will soon “pivot” to lower interest rates has fuelled a rally so far during 2023 in the riskiest, most speculative assets. Meme stocks are up more than 25 per cent, bitcoin is up more than 40 per cent and the Ark Innovation Fund that invests in speculative tech prospects is up more than 30 per cent. The best-performing US sectors year-to-date are communications, consumer discretionary and technology.

            If the Fed put is a thing of the past, history suggests traditional defensive sectors tend to outperform when there is a combination similar to today’s tighter monetary policy and decelerating corporate profits. Needs outweigh desires and sectors such as consumer staples, healthcare and utilities typically lead.

            Longer term investors should ignore themes that we have derisively called “cute wiener dogs in the metaverse” to focus on the woeful US underinvestment in real productive assets. Potential returns seem attractive from longer term opportunities in public and private sector infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. Few investors seem aware that analysts’ bottom-up forecasts show the energy sector could grow earnings more than twice as fast as the technology sector over the next five years.

            It is certainly understandable that financial market observers want the Fed to reverse course and write another put option. Much of the financial sector’s business has been built on generous and cheap money.

            However, the entire credibility of central banking is on the line and the Fed put should end. No one wants a recession, but allowing inflation to reignite could damage the US economy for a decade or more and, in the current volatile political environment, could even destabilise the governments of the US and other nations.

    2. Markets
      Published January 30, 2023 4:21pm EST
      Don’t buy the stock market rally, Morgan Stanley warns: ‘Another bear-market trap’
      Morgan Stanley reminds investors of key rule: ‘Don’t fight the Fed’
      By Megan Henney FOXBusiness
      Opimas, LLC founder and CEO Octavio Marenzi reacts to the Biden administration downplaying the risk of a U.S. recession on ‘Varney & Co.’
      Markets could plunge another 10-15% in 2023: Octavio Marenzi

      The surprising rally in the U.S. stock market at the start of 2023 is likely to fizzle as the Federal Reserve prepares to defy investor hopes and lift interest rates for the eighth consecutive time, according to Morgan Stanley.
      …
      https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/dont-buy-stock-market-rally-morgan-stanley-warns-bear-market-trap

    3. ‘You’re just a hamster spinning on a wheel’: Restaurant owner struggles to stay open02:39

      Live Updates
      Stocks sink ahead of expected Fed rate hike
      By Paul R. La Monica, CNN
      Updated 11:09 a.m. ET, February 1, 2023
      What we’re covering here
      – The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise rates by a quarter percentage point at the conclusion of its two-day Open Markets Committee meeting at 2 pm ET. That would mark the smallest rate hike since March 2022. Since then, the Fed has raised by a half-point twice and a historically high three-quarters of a point four times to combat inflation.
      – Fed Chair Jerome Powell is set to speak at 2:30 pm ET at a press conference. Although the Fed is expected to slow its pace of rate hikes, Powell has repeatedly said the central bank won’t consider rate cuts until the committee is “confident” that inflation is moving towards its 2% target.
      – Stocks fell slightly. Markets tend to move dramatically as Powell speaks, with investors cleaving to every word for hints about the health of the US economy and future of rates. Rate hikes can eat into corporate profits, making stock prices less valuable.

      12 min ago
      Michael Burry of “The Big Short” issues one-word cryptic tweet
      From CNN’s Paul R. La Monica

      Michael Burry seen in November 2015 at “The Big Short” screening at the Ziegfeld Theater in New York City.
      Michael Burry seen in November 2015 at “The Big Short” screening at the Ziegfeld Theater in New York City. (Astrid Stawiarz/Getty Images)

      Remember Michael Burry, the extremely bearish investing guru/hedge fund manager played by Christian Bale in “The Big Short” movie?

      Burry, who has an on-again-off-again presence on Twitter, once again seems to be nervous about the market. …We think.

      Burry tweeted one word late Tuesday: “Sell.” There was no further explanation. Sell what? Stocks? Bonds? Crypto? Your soul? Everything? And is Burry’s warning one of the reasons the stock market was lower Wednesday? Who knows.

      The tweet was deleted shortly after it popped up. Burry has a habit of writing tweets and then removing them. He’s even deleted his account in the past, only to restore it later. Thankfully, there is another Twitter account with the handle @BurryArchive that screen grabs Burry’s tweets.

      For what it’s worth, the actual Burry tweeted again on Wednesday morning. But there was no market advice in it. He simply posted a video of a Jimi Hendrix performance on YouTube.

      This only has 37 million views in two years, so… https://t.co/QMU2X26lEX
      — Cassandra B.C. (@michaeljburry) February 1, 2023

      Although when you click the link in Twitter, the video is not available. (It does seem to work on YouTube itself.) So maybe investors should “sell” Google/YouTube owner Alphabet?

      27 min ago
      Sam Bankman-Fried’s bail is tightened over ‘threat’ of witness tampering
      From CNN’s Kara Scannell

      Sam Bankman-Fried is in trouble, once again, for talking too much.

      A federal judge on Wednesday temporarily tightened the FTX founder’s bail conditions after learning that Bankman-Fried sent a text message to a former top executive of the crypto trading platform. The judge said that appeared to be a “material threat of inappropriate contact with prospective witnesses.”

      Judge Lewis Kaplan said Bankman-Fried is not allowed to contact current or former employees of FTX without attorneys present, nor to communicate over encrypted messaging apps until Kaplan hears arguments from both sides at a hearing next week.

      The restriction comes after federal prosecutors raised the prospect of witness tampering when it discovered that Bankman-Fried had recently contacted the former general counsel of FTX, identified at “Witness-1” in court filings.
      …
      https://www.cnn.com/business/live-news/stock-market-news-today-fed-2123/index.html

    1. The Financial Times
      Eurozone inflation
      Eurozone inflation slows to 8.5% on back of lower energy costs
      Consumer prices fall to lowest level since May as ECB prepares to impose another interest rate rise
      A shopper carrying a grocery basket
      Food inflation accelerated to 14% in January, up from 13.8% in the previous month
      Valentina Romei in London 5 hours ago

      Eurozone inflation slowed to its lowest level since May in the year to January, as central bank policymakers prepare to impose another sharp rise in borrowing costs on the region’s businesses, households and governments.

      Eurostat’s flash index on Wednesday showed consumer prices rose at an annual rate of 8.5 per cent in January, decelerating from 9.2 per cent in December. However, core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices and is considered a better measure of underlying inflation, remained unchanged at an all-time high of 5.2 per cent.

      The headline figure was lower than the 9 per cent forecast by economists polled by Reuters, and well below the record high of 10.6 per cent hit in the year to October.
      …

      1. “Food inflation accelerated to 14% in January, up from 13.8% in the previous month”

        Food prices woud nearly double in five years at a 14% inflation rate:

        1.14^5-1 = 92.5% increase (100% to double).

        1. Meanwhile, countries like the Netherlands are reducing food production by up to 30%

          All is going forward as planned.

      2. Just read that Britain is having nationwide strikes today over pay that isn’t keeping up with inflation.

        2. Klaus Schwab isn’t missing any meals. And Zelensky won’t be running out of cocaine anytime soon…

        3. Was just on eBay looking at shoes, and it’s amazing how many used shoes there are, not returned because didn’t fit right, but used as in nearly worn out. LOL

      3. “However, core inflation, which excludes changes in food and energy prices and is considered a better measure of underlying inflation, remained unchanged at an all-time high of 5.2 per cent.”

        According to Powell, the most accurate measure of inflation is the “VCR and Beanie Babies” measure of inflation, which is down 20%.

  18. “Many of these borrowers must already be living in mortgage hell – a situation where they do not have enough income left, after expenses, to pay the mortgage.”

    Not to mention how much money they are losing on declining market values. Prices in my nabe were recently reported dropping to the tune of $20,000 a month. At least the owners don’t have to worry about paying rent.

    1. Forbes
      Money
      Investing
      Cathie Wood’s Top 5 Stocks See Abysmal Year In 2022
      GuruFocus
      Contributor
      Jan 13, 2023,04:00pm EST

      Summary

      Tesla, Zoom, Roku, UiPath and Exact Sciences were impacted by inflation, interest rates and other factors.

      As we head into a new year, investors are taking a look at their portfolios to determine which stocks were winners and losers in 2022.

      With a long list of concerns creating volatility in the market, including geopolitical conflicts, inflation and rising interest rates, it is unsurprising that many gurus saw their top stocks underperform the benchmark indexes last year. ARK Investment’s Catherine Wood (Trades, Portfolio) is no exception. While her portfolio of exchange-traded funds has managed to find success in the past among companies with “disruptive innovation,” its largest holdings underperformed the S&P 500 Index’s return of -19.44% last year as growth stocks took a dive.
      …
      https://www.forbes.com/sites/gurufocus/2023/01/13/cathie-woods-top-5-stocks-see-abysmal-year-in-2022/?sh=904c65eaa3d5

    2. Next Gen Investing
      Bitcoin lost over 60% of its value in 2022—here’s how much 6 other popular cryptocurrencies lost
      Published Fri, Dec 23 2022 9:30 AM EST
      Cheyenne DeVon
      Cemile Bingol | Digitalvision Vectors | Getty Images

      It’s been a brutal year for the cryptocurrency market.

      In the latest blow to the crypto space, Core Scientific, one of the largest publicly traded crypto mining companies in the U.S, which primarily mints bitcoin, filed for bankruptcy on Dec. 21, citing falling crypto prices and rising energy costs.

      And the implosion of FTX, a now-bankrupt crypto trading platform that was once valued at $32 billion, has shattered investors’ confidence as the ripple effects of the company’s collapse continue to spread throughout the crypto industry.

      “Many Americans are coming to realize that cryptocurrency is just a speculative mania and the industry is rife with crooks,” James Royal, principal reporter at Bankrate, tells CNBC Make It.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2022/12/23/bitcoin-lost-over-60-percent-of-its-value-in-2022.html

      1. “Bitcoin lost over 60% of its value in 2022”

        And yet it is still outperforming every other major asset class, according to Cathie Wood’s unbiased assessment!? I must be some kind of investing wizard then, because my personal HODLings didn’t lose 60% last year.

        1. 1-23000/68789.63 = 66.6% off peak, even after January’s massive rally. There’s a lot of ground to cover in imaginary currency space to get from $23,000 to $1,000,000 in eight years.

          1. (1000000/23000)^(1/8)-1 = 60.2% annual returns needed ov eight years for Cathie Wood’s prediction to pencil out. Nothing comparable happened since the days of the Weimar Republic, but who knows?

  20. As any banker will tell you, it’s a fairly protracted process to ‘ actually repossess a home in Australia. And it may be in the interest of banks to help keep borrowers afloat, given that – particularly on recent purchases – money recovered through sales may not even cover the debt.

    So it’s not just us.

    1. “A growing number of Americans believe that the US is sending too much aid to Ukraine, with more than a quarter now saying that the administration of President Joe Biden is being too generous, according to a new Pew Research poll. The percentage of those who believe that Washington should increase its military and economic aid has halved over the last year.

      The findings show a dramatic change since March of last year, when 42% told Pew that they felt the US wasn’t doing enough for Ukraine.”

      https://www.rt.com/news/570780-ukraine-us-aid-poll/

      Russia is winning.

    2. Well we knew this was inevitable…war in Ukraine may require NATO ground troops.

      https://twitter.com/tokogriff_s/status/1620825389412270082?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1620825389412270082%7Ctwgr%5E31559e86289880e5e87893529833a03e7664619a%7Ctwcon%5Es1_&ref_url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.godlikeproductions.com%2Fforum1%2Fmessage5349365%2Fpg1

      We’ve gone from this war is a disaster for Russia and a humiliation for Putin to oh f*&k we need a plan B. I don’t know how this going to work because the west has no place to launch air strikes from. Eastern Ukraine is too far from any NATO airbases for air combat missions and they can’t put a carrier in the black sea. We’ve really stepped in it this time.

      1. war in Ukraine may require NATO ground troops

        I was telling someone I have a hunch that 2023 is the year when all hell breaks loose, and not just the war.

      2. “I don’t know how this going to work”

        Covid was just the warmup act.

        Get ready for starving and suffering at a level you never imagined possible. Western Europe is the preview.

        $7 a dozen eggs, your betters telling you that natural gas stoves cause asthma and cancer, expect more of the same, and worse.

        Globalists gonna globe.

        3. The Minnesota House of Representatives passed a landmark bill Thursday night requiring the state’s electric utilities to get all of their electricity from carbon-free sources by 2040.”

          Does Minnesota get cold in the Winter ?

          1. requiring the state’s electric utilities to get all of their electricity from carbon-free sources by 2040

            Granted, that’s 17 years from now. If naysayers like Vox Day are right the US will have collapsed by then.

          2. After 17 years of global warning climate change, no! 😉

            I’ve been watching a lot of gardening YT videos the last 9 months. It’s astounding how many people have bought into this “climate change” crap. Sphagnum peat moss bad, coconut coir good. Oops, coconut coir not so good, so sphagnum peat moss not so bad. IDGAF! What best retains the moisture my plants need to grow in my environment.

          6. Here in Zone 9b/10a: 3 parts compost; 3 parts sphagnum peat moss; 2 parts vermiculite; and, 1 part perlite. Fungus gnats are a bit of a problem with our recent rains but cinnamon powder, hydrogen peroxide and neem oil should take care of those although neem oil is a no-no to some people.

  24. This is a Mass Formation Psychosis article, and remember, there will be no “pandemic amnesty.”

    Salon — What the end of COVID health emergencies means for anti-vaxxers: meltdown (2/1/2023):

    “an opinion column I wrote in August 2021 headlined, “It’s OK to blame the unvaccinated — they are robbing the rest of us of our freedoms.” None of my hecklers could explain why, exactly, I should feel bad about this.

    Led by Trump’s glib dismissals of the virus’ dangers as a “hoax,” conservatives erected an entire mythology about how they were underdog heroes for resisting public health measures. They threw tantrums over the lockdowns. They had fits over masks. They refused to get vaccinated. Resisting COVID-19 precautions became, for many of them, central to who they are. And once something becomes central to your identity, it is hard to let go.”

    https://www.salon.com/2023/02/01/what-the-end-of-health-means-for-anti-vaxxers-meltdown/

    Amanda Marcotte you are complicit in and guilty of medical genocide.

    The Day Of The Rope is coming…

    1. The only “meltdowns” I recall was vaxxers shrieking that we were killing grandma, that there was no room at the hospital, and that I had to roll up my sleeve or lose my job.

    2. Nah. Don’t think the chickenhawks in DC have the courage to foist another losing hot war in this country. They would rather continue the cold war and rake in the loot.

      1. Between restrictive immigration, abysmal U.S. birth rates, massive student loan and consumer debt, and young people living with mom and dad because they can’t afford to buy an overpriced house, they aren’t making any more buyers.

        2. I’ve heard about this wealth transfer for years now but this chart is the first thing I’ve seen that precisely and concisely illustrates it.

        2. Where I live , CA, they just walk away if they over pay. I bought my house in 2012 from young buyers who just walked away, short sale. I bet they bought a house twice the size a few years later. This also happened in the early 1990’s and I will bet its going to happen in 2023-2025.

    1. The Financial Times
      FT Alphaville Investments
      This is a really trashy rally
      The flight to shite
      Today’s market leaders
      Robin Wigglesworth 12 hours ago

      Markets have started the year where they ended 2021, rallying on hopes that inflation has peaked, central banks are about to pivot and the global economy is doing a lot better than feared.

      This has lifted most boats, both in equities and fixed income. The MSCI All-Country World Index climbed 7 per cent in January, while the Bloomberg Global Aggregate bond index is up 3.3 per cent. In terms of breadth, this is the best start to a year since 2019, according to Deutsche Bank.

      And this is a proper risk-on rally. Consumer discretionary is the best performing sector, which is . . . counter-intuitive in a cost of living crisis that many people think will morph into a recession. Meanwhile, utilities, staples and healthcare are all down.

      In fact, on closer inspection it’s pretty remarkable/hilarious/unnerving (delete according to personal bias) how much the January rally has been powered by, well, absolute trash. Here are some of FT Alphaville’s favourite speculative dumpster fires and how they’ve done so far this year:

      Crypto:

      Bitcoin: +38.1 per cent

      GBTC bitcoin trust: +46.6 per cent.

      Dogecoin: +32 per cent

      Meme stonks:

      AMC: +31.5 per cent.

      GME: +18.5 per cent

      Goldman Sachs High Retail Sentiment Basket: +29.3 per cent

      Spec tech:

      ARKK: +27.2 per cent

      Tesla: +40 per cent

      Goldman Sachs Non-Profitable Tech Basket: +22 per cent

      Private markets

      VanEck’s BDC ETF: +8.3 per cent

      Invesco’s private equity ETF: +13.3 per cent

      Blackrock’s REIT ETF: +10.7 per cent.

      Misc trash

      Carvana: +114.6 per cent

      SPAC index: +20.1 per cent

      Stockholm’s OMX: +7.8 per cent (ed note; the author is Norwegian)

      Deutsche Bank: +15.5 per cent (ed note: ok fair enough)

      Here, in chart form from Credit Suisse, is what that looks like in terms of factors. Anything volatile, and/or that was beaten up hard in 2022, and/or is crypto-adjacent, and/or is unusually linked to economic growth, has had a fab start to 2023.

      The question is whether this is a post-growth scare rally — a milder echo of we usually see after bad recessions end and markets begin bouncing again — or the return of BTFD that will end badly.
      …

  28. Via ZH (no link): Massive Peer-Reviewed Mask Study Shows ‘Little To No Difference’ In Preventing COVID, Flu Infection

    A massive international research collaboration that analyzed several dozen rigorous studies focusing on “physical interventions” against COVID-19 and influenza found that they provide little to no protection against infection or illness rates.

    The study, published in the peer-reviewed Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, is the strongest science to date refuting the basis for mask mandates worldwide.

    According to the Cochrane study, which included the work of researchers at institutions in the U.K., Canada, Australia, Italy and Saudi Arabia, a total of 78 studies were analyzed. Most recent additions to the meta-analysis were 11 new randomized controlled trials.

          1. So basically that Stone Canyon listing is a wishin’ and a hopin’ even before interest rate increases take a huge bite.

    2. $763 price/sqft I lived in Poway for a year but in a small crappy rental off community road. My favorite PCB manufacturer is right up the road by Costco. Big drone manufacturer up there too.

  30. NetApp just announced they are laying off 8%, 12,000. NetApp makes enterprise storage hardware. They don’t rent desks or deliver fast food.

    2. Marvell got rid of me a couple weeks ago did me a favor I hated that shitty company. Zoom call. I was OK can I leave as now ? Yes and you don’t have to finish up any of your projects and a here is a sweet severance, at least for a lowly staff engineer. Plus I got to leave a complicated design in FAB for the most clueless principal engineer ever to finish 🤣. Now I’m left wondering why I’m still in California…

      1. “Now I’m left wondering why I’m still in California…”

        A thought every sensible person is having.

      2. I hated that shitty company

        I have heard bad things about Marvell. Reminds me of Avago, which was spun off from HP/Agilent Everyone I knew who worked there said it was horrible. It’s now called Broadcom.

  31. daaaaayum….. It doesn’t take much effort to challenge the self proclaimed housing experts BS on twitter to only watch them shit all over themselves while furiously backpedalling. It’s truly awesome.

  32. Real Estate
    Published February 1, 2023 1:19pm EST
    US housing market seeing ‘meaningful’ damage that’s ‘not normal,’ CEO of investment firm warns
    Big builders need to ‘step up their game,’ Bill Pulte says
    By Kayla Bailey FOXBusiness
    Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte discusses the housing and construction market as the U.S. 30-year fixed mortgage rate falls for the fourth week in a row at 6.1% on ‘Mornings with Maria.’
    Big builders need to ‘step-up their game’: Bill Pulte

    The U.S. housing market is in for a rough year, according to the CEO of one private equity investment firm.

    GOLDMAN SACHS SAYS 4 US CITIES WILL SUFFER A 2008 CRASH IN HOME VALUES

    “In 23′ it’s going to be slow. I think we’re going to have a tough row to hoe. I think that coming in the next year, you’re really going to see the damage that’s going on,” Pulte Capital CEO Bill Pulte explained on “Mornings with Maria.”

    “We need to make sure that these management teams are completely focused on executing right now because, Maria, you get 40% reduction in orders. And the big builders, they need to step up their game right now,” he continued.
    for sale sign in front of building

    The 30-year fixed mortgage rate dipped for the fourth week in a row to 6.19% this week from 6.23% last week. A year ago, the average rate was nearly half, at 3.54%.

    Host Maria Bartiromo pointed out that the home-buying mortgage application rate is down 10%, and asked whether Pulte believes that the U.S. housing market is currently suffering from a recession.

    “It’s going to be a tough row to sow the rest of the year. And I think you heard that on the earnings call. I think you’re going to see that coming into – even next year, frankly – Because, Maria, these orders are down,” he stressed. “Pulte Group’s orders, for example, are down 40% year-over-year. I mean, that’s meaningful, Maria. So, you can call it a recession. You can call what you want, but 40% orders being down, that’s not normal.”
    …
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/real-estate/us-housing-market-meaningful-damage-normal-ceo-investment-firm-warns

    1. Not mentioned in the article, unless I missed it:

      How big are the investing losses they are sitting on due to purchasing investment properties right before a crash? “It’s always a good time to buy!”

  33. I had to look up the term “mezzanine loan”. Seems that the term “vigorish” might be more applicable.

  34. Giving 6 gallon a mile tankd to Ukraine and now this.

    How Dare You!!!

    Yes, and how many whales must die on the beach
    Before Wind Farms are forever banned?
    … The answer, my friend, is blowin’ in the wind
    The answer is layin’ on the sand

    12 Jersey Shore mayors call for moratorium on offshore wind following whale deaths

    Amanda Oglesby
    Dan Radel
    Asbury Park Press
    Jan 30 2023

    A group of Jersey Shore mayors are calling for an “immediate moratorium” on offshore wind energy development until federal and state scientists can assure the public that ocean noise related to underwater seabed mapping, soil borings and other turbine construction activities poses no threat to whales.

    The announcement followed news that another humpback whale had died off of the coasts of New Jersey and New York and washed ashore in Lido Beach, Nassau County, New York, according to numerous reports.

    “While we are not opposed to clean energy, we are concerned about the impacts these (offshore wind) projects may already be having on our environment,” the 12 New Jersey mayors wrote in a joint letter to Washington officials.

    The mayors include six from Ocean and Monmouth counties: Joseph Mancini of Long Beach Township, Samuel Cohen of Deal, Paul M. Kanitra of Point Pleasant Beach, William W. Curtis of Bay Head, Lance White of Mantoloking, and Jennifer Naughton of Spring Lake.

    The Lido Beach whale marks the eighth whale to wash ashore on the beaches of New York and New Jersey in the past two months, the mayors said.

    On Saturday, a dead humpback was seen floating about 12 miles off Long Beach Island, said Andrea Gomez, a spokeswoman for the Greater Atlantic Regional Fisheries Office at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, or NOAA.

    It was not clear Monday if the Lido Beach whale could be the same one spotted off Long Beach Island.

    “This is the sixth stranded humpback whale reported in New Jersey, and the 18th large whale stranding along the East Coast, since December 1,” Gomez said in an email to an the Asbury Park Press reporter.

    https://www.app.com/story/news/local/land-environment/2023/01/30/whale-deaths-ny-nj-offshore-wind-moratorium-renewable-energy/69855167007/

    1. “Acoustic trauma, which could result from close exposure to loud human-produced sounds, is very challenging to assess in stranded whales, particularly with any amount of decomposition,” said Gomez of NOAA. “Scientists look for bruising or trauma to the ear and other organs, but linking it to a particular sound source is difficult.”

      Undersea depth charges create an acoustic wave, and its reflection is analyzed to determine soil density and stability among other data.

      1. “I wouldn’t want to walk up to that newborn.”

        That tight formation looks like a hyena stomping party!

      1. Elephants have the longest pregnancy of any living mammal: an average of 22 months for African elephants and 18-22 months for Asian elephants.

          1. Love them both but hippos are particularly nasty. Been face to rhino lip in a keeper’s truck at San Diego Zoo Safari Park.

    1. The Financial Times
      Adani Group
      Gautam Adani defends ‘robust’ business as stock losses reach $100bn
      Indian conglomerate says proceeding with cancelled $2.4bn share sale would ‘not be morally correct’
      Gautam Adani
      All 10 stocks controlled by Gautam Adani’s group fell in early trading in India on Thursday
      Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong and John Reed in New Delhi
      40 minutes ago

      Indian billionaire Gautam Adani broke his silence and defended his industrial empire despite a cancelled $2.4bn share sale in the wake of a short-seller attack.

      Losses for Adani Group stocks escalated to $100bn on Thursday after the conglomerate’s flagship company called off the equity issue, saying it would be “not be morally correct” to proceed given the stock wipeout.

      In a video address released shortly before markets opened, founder Adani dismissed concerns about the group’s finances and said the decision not to go ahead with the fundraising for Adani Enterprises would “not have any impact on our existing operations and future plans”.
      …

Comments are closed.