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It’s A Whole New Paradigm

A report from the Daily Telegraph in Australia. “It’s 2014 all over again — just without the ice bucket challenge. House hunters in multiple areas across Sydney have been purchasing homes at or close to prices last recorded five years ago as sellers continue to slash their asking prices to counter the current market slump. Many of these areas had been in high demand when the market was booming but rampant housing construction has given buyers more choice, forcing sellers to adjust their prices.”

“Among the notable price falls were in North Ryde and nearby suburb Meadowbank, where heavy apartment construction helped pull down median unit prices from over $720,000 two years ago to about the $650,000-$670,000 mark. It’s meant current apartment buyers are paying the same prices they were five years ago.”

“A similar trend was recorded in Penrith suburb Mulgoa, where the median price of a house was $1.39 million in 2017, but has since dropped to $829,000 — marginally below the level it was in 2014.”

“‘There’s a chance to get a better deal,’ said Realestate.com.au chief economist Nerida Conisbee. ‘Not only are prices down, but buyers have more time to think about their purchases. They can negotiate more and there is no rush to buy, which was something buyers struggled with during the boom.'”

The Australian Financial Review. “Sydney homeowners are increasingly pulling their homes from auction before the big day while some Melbourne properties are now selling for less than their council valuations. Sydney auctioneer Damien Cooley said there was ‘no question’ prices were still down.”

“‘The good quality properties are still selling well but not for the prices they would have if it was in the middle of the boom,’ Mr Cooley said. Properties with just one or two things wrong with them weren’t attracting interest at all, he added. Property prices in Ryde have experienced some of the biggest drops across the country, with values falling 14.7 per cent in the last 12 months alone.”

“In Melbourne, some houses are now selling for less than their council valuations, including two multimillion-dollar properties that went to auction over the weekend. ‘It’s a whole new paradigm. A lot of buyers would use the council valuation as a measuring stick for how much a property was worth but that’s now been broken,’ Melbourne buyer’s agent Emma Bloom.”

“The valuations, which are marked on each contract and are indicative of land value plus improvements, had previously been the starting point for bidding, Ms Bloom said. One such example was a property that went to auction on the weekend, a 1920s five-bedroom residence at 56 Clarence Street in Malvern East, which passed in after a vendor bid but sold soon after for $2.76 million, despite a much higher valuation of $3.2 million.”

From Domain News. “The ruler of Dubai has been caught up in Sydney’s cooling property market, losing more than half a million dollars on a Mosman house that went to auction on Saturday. The property was bought for $5 million in late 2016. When the 446-square-metre property on Orlando Avenue went under the hammer on Saturday the bidding started at $4 million, despite the property being renovated since it last traded.”

Bob Guth of BradfieldCleary had four parties throw their hat in the ring before the home with a swimming pool sold for $4.45 million. He declined to give the reserve but said the home was called on the market at $4.35 million.”

The West Australian. “Perth house prices have plunged to 2006 levels, with new data showing few signs of improvement. A joint study by CoreLogic and Aussie Home Loans found Perth’s housing market had been in ‘an entrenched downturn’ since mid-2014 and had already slipped lower this year.”

From News.com.au. “Sydney tenants have been pocketing hundreds of dollars a week in savings as mounting housing supply forces landlords to discount their rents by nearly 25 per cent in some city pockets. The savings showed renters have become the surprise winners from rampant investor buying during the property price boom from 2014-2017, which has flooded the market with rental properties.”

“Manly Vale had the biggest rental drops, with the typical advertised rent for houses dropping from $1200 per week to $913, or 24 per cent, over the past year, according to an analysis of CoreLogic figures. Average asking rents also dropped by more than $130 per week in nearby northern beaches enclaves Warriewood, Killarney Heights and Narrabeen.”

“CoreLogic analyst Cameron Kusher said Sydney was experiencing ‘a hangover’ from the real estate investment boom, making it a great time to be a tenant. He suggested tenants review their rents and try renegotiate with their landlords.”

“Amanda Jong and Jye McMurray moved into a new home north of Manly this weekend and noted local landlords were desperate to fill their properties. Their rental application was accepted straight away, Ms Jong said, adding that she was able to renegotiate the rent on her last home after realising a neighbouring property had been vacant for eight weeks.”

“‘We got a much better deal,’ she said. ‘They were happy to give us a lower price because they would struggle to find another tenant.'”

This Post Has 26 Comments
  1. ‘A similar trend was recorded in Penrith suburb Mulgoa, where the median price of a house was $1.39 million in 2017, but has since dropped to $829,000 — marginally below the level it was in 2014’

    Worser and worser. The 17% drop is for the expensive shacks. Like we’ve seen all over the world and more indicative of a bubble pop. Coming to you California, Seattle, Denver and Dallas.

    1. Don’t forget Boston, where the houses are literally shacks built in the late 1800s, held up by lead paint, and sold by people who bought them 30 years ago who now want 10x what they paid.

      Eeeeee-bola Boston.

    2. Meanwhile here in San Diego, the first thing I heard when I turned on the radio in my truck yesterday was an ad for a free Information packet on how to flip houses…”if you are making less than 5-10k per month you should be flipping houses!”….and of course you can do this with other people’s money. Then today the first radio ad that came on was for a mortgage company refinancing home loans that extract equity so you can pay off credit card debt. The wonders of the asset inflation economy are limitless.

        1. “Of course, there are other alternatives available to the Fed: It could try negative interest rates – though they haven’t done much to stoke inflation and growth in Europe. But one thing is for sure: During the coming downturn, the central bank is going to need to get a lot more ‘creative’.“

          +1,000,000,000,000!!!

          Pay ME to borrow money, this is how I can continue our economical pursuit to the moon!

          1. Oh the Horror. I even advocate the FED buys stocks and housing directly! This will create the GREATEST ECONOMY EVER and Prosperity for ALL scheme.

          2. I even advocate the FED buys stocks and housing directly!

            It’s either that or let overextended major political donors go broke.

    3. “1.39 million in 2017, but has since dropped to $829,000”

      That’s -40% in 2 years. I wonder how many people in 2017 thought this was un-possible.

      1. getting a little sick of this “Debby downer” attitude towards RE. Listen, it only goes one direction and thats up! that 40% decline your referring to was due to an anomaly of factors:

        1) extended vacation that all buyers simultaneously went on

        2) seasonal weather irregularities (no such thing as global warming, DJT told me and he knows his stuff)

        3) lazy gov employees decided they wanted to take off some time (gov shutdown)

        4) preparation of Superbowl sunday and the hangovers and aftermath that proceeded

        5)interest rates went up but then back down again (this confuses buyers which puts things on hold, trust me!)

        6) stawk market went up then down then up again (also confuses buyers)

        Im in the process of getting my new career in real estate lined up and people like you really hurt my feelings saying all this “fact based” information. just roll with it, its different this time, last time wasnt real, fake news, free money! Thinking of getting a mercedes to floss while driving to and from my marks shacks. seems like the really successful realtors drive those, mabye ill put one of those wings on it to make it faster too!

  2. ‘under the hammer on Saturday the bidding started at $4 million, despite the property being renovated since it last traded’

    So he lost more than half a million.

  3. ‘Not only are prices down, but buyers have more time to think about their purchases. They can negotiate more and there is no rush to buy, which was something buyers struggled with during the boom.’

    Sounds like if you are patient and wait a couple of years, you might have a large selection to choose from at a 30 percent or more discount to the current market price.

  4. ‘Amanda Jong and Jye McMurray moved into a new home north of Manly this weekend and noted local landlords were desperate to fill their properties. Their rental application was accepted straight away, Ms Jong said, adding that she was able to renegotiate the rent on her last home after realising a neighbouring property had been vacant for eight weeks’

    So Amanda gave her prior landlord a schlonging and move on and did it again!

    ‘We got a much better deal,’ she said. ‘They were happy to give us a lower price because they would struggle to find another tenant’

    And the landlord was happy!

  5. It’s meant current apartment buyers are paying the same prices they were five years ago.

    Wait…I thought we were priced out forever?

  6. This interview with David Rosenberg is enlightening. Starts at 17 minutes and ends at 47:00. Stated the “shadow” Fed funds was -5% when QE is factored in (“a synthetically negative interest rate”). Both the interviewer and Rosenberg agreed that monetization will happen “in the next couple of years”

  7. The most interesting segment was his take on BBB corp credit. He thinks that BBB rated companies are shifting from share buybacks to reducing investment and hiring, so they can make coupon payments and afford to roll over debt. This cost costing will allow them to make payments on their bonds but on a macro level, cause an economic slowdown.
    In terms of housing, the popping bubble will accelerate its descent, followed by the Fed slashing rates rates to 0% and printing more money (perhaps helicopter money)

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