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Lenders Are Simply Left Holding The Bag

A report from the Pioneer Press in Minnesota. “Taylor Swartwood bought a small apartment building off Rice Street a few years ago for $157,000. He’ll pay $4,500 in total property taxes (city, county, school district and special taxing districts) and special assessments in 2020, up from about $3,000 when he purchased the property in mid-2017. And next year could be worse. ‘It only breaks even right now, so I don’t even have a maintenance budget,’ said Swartwood, who owns eight properties throughout St. Paul. ‘I’m going to have to harm friends to feed the city come 2021.'”

“In late March, Gov. Tim Walz declared a temporary moratorium banning evictions for non-payment of rent during the pandemic. If that keeps up, Swartwood foresees landlords ultimately losing their properties. ‘If you have mortgage payments, and nobody’s paying you, it’s sort of like being told to turn lead into gold,’ Swartwood said. ‘They’re going to cause a lot of foreclosures.'”

The Associated Press. “Landlord advocacy groups filed a special action with the Arizona State Supreme Court on Aug. 12 seeking to invalidate as unconstitutional Gov. Doug Ducey’s moratorium on evictions of people who have missed rent payments. Five months after the moratorium was first imposed ‘we are at a breaking point,’ Arizona Multihousing Association’s CEO Courtney Gilstrap LeVinus said, noting that property owners also have mortgages, taxes and other bills to pay.”

From USA Today. “Hailey Bermel, 23, and her two roommates weren’t ready to give up their four-bedroom apartment outside Boston when the lease was up in June. They saw prices drop on comparable units in the area, took a list of discounted places to their landlord who agreed to knock $800 per month off their rent for the year ahead. ‘It felt amazing when she said ‘yes.’ I took a victory walk around our street,’ Bermel says.”

From Bisnow. “New York apartments cost far less to rent than they did this time last year. Manhattan’s median net effective rent, which takes into account incentives and concessions, hit $3,167 in July, according to Douglas Elliman and Miller Samuel Real Estate’s monthly report. That figure represents a more than 10% drop from July 2019. Face rents, which is what the apartment is advertised for and doesn’t include landlord-provided freebies, dropped too: The median price went down by 6% from July last year to hit $3,320.”

“Nearly 47% of new leases signed in Manhattan included some form of concession in July, per the report, which is the highest percentage in more than two years. The number of new leases fell 23% from the year before. Meanwhile, listing inventory soared by 121%. The vacancy rate crept up from last month to reach over 4%, the highest level recorded in Miller Samuel’s 14 years of compiling rental reports.”

The New York Daily News. “Peter Ward, one of New York City’s most powerful union leaders, is stepping down as president of the Hotel Trades Council. Over-development of hotels during the past decade has left the industry in an even more weakened position to weather the COVID-induced financial crisis, which Ward believes will lead to bankruptcies, foreclosures and court battles. ‘The industry has so badly overbuilt itself that they’ve destroyed the goose that laid the golden egg,’ he said. ‘They’ve created a situation now where many of them will not survive this crisis because they are just simply overbuilt.'”

The Wall Street Journal. “Commercial real estate has understandably not been policy makers’ main priority since the pandemic began to tear into economies. But it requires attention now. Commercial real-estate loans make up around 22% of U.S. banks’ total loans. Letting large landlords shoulder the burden alone cannot be the answer, however tempting the prospect might seem to some. Financial stability is at risk if lenders are simply left holding the bag when developers and owners default.”

From Senior Housing News. “Colony Capital has transferred ownership of 36 senior housing properties to a lender, as a step toward resolving a default. Los Angeles-based Colony is a global digital infrastructure, real estate and investment management firm with $46 billion in assets under management. Of Colony’s total health care-related debt as of June 30, $203 million was in default. The majority of Colony’s defaulted health care debt was already in default prior to Covid-19.”

The Real Deal on Florida. “Three Hundred Collins in Miami Beach’s South-of-Fifth neighborhood is besieged with poor quality interiors, debts to contractors and an unresponsive developer, among other problems, according to a recently filed lawsuit. The 300 Collins Condominium Association is suing JHPSB Collins Development, marking the latest salvo from buyers who allege they were duped into purchasing units in a condominium that is not as luxurious as advertised in marketing materials. The building at 300 Collins Avenue has 19 units that ranged in price from $1.7 million to $9 million.”

The complaint was filed in Miami-Dade Circuit Court, three days after Miami-Dade Judge William Thomas granted summary judgment in favor of JHPSB in a separate lawsuit that made similar allegations, filed by individual unit owners as the plaintiffs. Unit owners found that many of the most basic elements — such as electric garage doors, the pool deck and an ornamental fountain — ‘were installed cheaply or improperly, have been prone to malfunction or were never completed at all,’ the condo association claims.”

From Pacific San Diego in California. “Rent in San Diego County is down for the first time since the Great Recession. It is notable because rent hasn’t dropped in the county since the third quarter of 2010 and any talk of a reduction at the start of the year was unthinkable. Experts say the once-unstoppable rise in rents in San Diego County has been halted by large job losses, or income reductions, related to COVID-19 and a lack of people signing new leases in the region’s most-recently opened luxury buildings.”

“Alan Nevin, real estate analyst at Xpera Group, said the actual rent price with special offers — sometimes called the ‘effective rent’ — is probably a better way to look at what is happening. He said many of the luxury buildings are offering one to two months of free rent. That way they don’t have to lower rents and then be prevented from raising them substantially later under statewide rent control passed in 2019. CoStar said the effective rent was closer to $1,830 a month in the second quarter.”

“‘What they would rather do is have it free upfront so they can maintain their pro forma rents until things get better,’ Nevin said.”

“Joshua Ohl, CoStar managing analyst, said some of the newest apartments are marketed with high rents because of gyms, pools and other features that had to be closed to prevent spreading the virus. ‘If all those things are closed, what are you paying for?’ Ohl said.”

The SFist in California. “Nowadays, it’s somewhat common to spot sub-$1K Craigslist ads for single-room rentals in areas like the Lower Haight, Inner Sunset, and The Castro — all neighborhoods where you would be hard-pressed to find anything remotely close to that price before, pre-pandemic. For the first time in over a decade: San Francisco’s now home to both a renter’s and buyer’s market, with home prices steadily on the decline as the Bay Area’s real estate market continues reeling from lackluster business.”

“The recent (and widely publicized) exodus event in San Francisco was highlighted by Zillow, showing that their real estate inventory for the city had a 96 percent year-over-year spike as unoccupied SF homes went on to the market in huge numbers, unlike any other metropolitan area mentioned in the study.”

The Daily Mail on California. “Today, Los Angeles is a city on the brink. ‘For Sale’ signs are seemingly dotted on every suburban street as the middle classes, particularly those with families, flee for the safer suburbs, with many choosing to leave LA altogether. Danny O’Brien runs Watford Moving & Storage. ‘There is a mass exodus from Hollywood,’ he says. ‘And a lot of it is to do with politics.’ His business is booming. ‘August has already set records and we are only halfway through the month,’ he tells me. ‘People are getting out in droves.'”

“Veteran publicist Ed Lozzi says: ‘People are taking losses on the sales of their homes to get out.'”

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This Post Has 230 Comments

  1. ‘$46 billion in assets under management. Of Colony’s total health care-related debt as of June 30, $203 million was in default. The majority of Colony’s defaulted health care debt was already in default prior to Covid-19’

    This is a strategic default.

    ‘‘People are taking losses on the sales of their homes to get out’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

  2. ‘What they would rather do is have it free upfront so they can maintain their pro forma rents until things get better’

    Openly discussing fraud – check!

    2. Isn’t this kind of what the car industry does? They give rebates while insisting that the price isn’t being discounted. And to add insult to injury, buyers have to pay sales tax on the rebates.

      1. Why pay new car prices for a used car when you can pay used car prices for a new one?

        As long as housing prices continue cratering, all is well.

        Falls Church, VA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Subprime Mortgage Defaults Skyrocket In Fairfax And Arlington County

        https://www.movoto.com/falls-church-va/market-trends/

        As a noted economist stated, “You’d have to have rocks in your head to buy a house in the last 15 years.”

  3. ‘Ward believes will lead to bankruptcies, foreclosures and court battles. ‘The industry has so badly overbuilt itself that they’ve destroyed the goose that laid the golden egg…They’ve created a situation now where many of them will not survive this crisis because they are just simply overbuilt’

    Over and over, why did they ignore fundamentals and overbuild? They were building a commodity, to be flipped to a greater fool.

    3 May 2017
    Which US hotel markets are on the bubble?
    As the hotel industry continues on the path toward a downturn, it’s time to begin looking at warning signs for which markets are poised to experience a large drop.

    By Jack B. Corgel, Managing Director, CBRE Hotels’ Americas Research

    ‘At a recent gathering, I was involved in a group conversation with hotel property investors who agreed that they have been “choking on the numbers” in certain U.S. hotel markets. Stated differently, their spreadsheet models explode once either acquisition prices or development costs are entered to evaluate hotel opportunities, especially in red-hot markets.’

    ‘They asked, “Should we pay such high prices now, given that the boom may turn into a bust?” As a college professor, I offered the standard response: “It depends, what do you think?” As a hotel market forecaster, I promised to think and write about hotel property market bubbles with regard to their questions, and likely those of others, about current pricing in local markets.’

    ‘Boom and bust experiences over the past few decades—with tech stock prices and housing prices, for example—have generated an avalanche of books and articles about short-term, extraordinary asset pricing volatility. A summary of these writings appears as follows.’

    https://www.hospitalitynet.org/opinion/4082501.html

    1. Over and over, why did they ignore fundamentals and overbuild?

      Probably because, like last time, they believe that fundamentals no longer apply, and that if they don’t get out there and build that they would be leaving money on the table, because someone else would build it and reap the rewards.

      1. Note that the media has completely avoided the WSJ article a week or so ago about vast fraud in the CMBS market. Much of that lending was non-recourse. Are we really surprised fraud/strategic default is everywhere when it’s a “heads I win tails you lose” set up?

        There’s also this:

        April 19, 2018

        “‘Palm Beach is completely on fire,’ said Todd Michael Glaser, a high-end homebuilder who made his name in Miami but has lately been concentrating on Palm Beach County. ‘I’ve never seen the amount of $8M to $70M homes as in the last three and a half, four months. It’s staggering.’ It’s not just single-family homes that are hot, but a new wave of high-end condos and mutifamily apartments, especially in downtown West Palm Beach.”

        “Kolter Urban President Bob Vail, who is developing the Alexander, said that there is something of an arms race for amenities in the new supply of high-end homes. ‘You see that across the U.S. There are [apartment] buildings in Atlanta, Denver and Dallas that are nicer and more fully amenitized than condominium units, because that’s what it’s going to take to get people to choose that building,’ Vail said. ‘It’s just sort of a differential advantage. It’s really become a race in those more in-demand markets.’”

        “Though the market is healthy now, the developers agreed a slowdown is possible as new supply takes time to be absorbed, construction costs rise and actionable sites get harder to find. Low salaries in Palm Beach County mean that not many workers can afford high rents. When an audience member asked whether they were concerned with an economic downturn, Vail responded half-jokingly, ‘Condo developers, we don’t forecast those kind of things, you know what I mean? We’re just go, go go,’ he said. ‘And the faster we go, the faster we get to the closing, and then, I’m not going to say we don’t care, but … ‘ The audience chuckled as he trailed off.”

        http://thehousingbubbleblog.com/?p=10407

  4. ‘Unit owners found that many of the most basic elements — such as electric garage doors, the pool deck and an ornamental fountain — ‘were installed cheaply or improperly, have been prone to malfunction or were never completed at all’

    Well it was cheaper than renting.

      1. You haven’t met some of the electrician apprentices that I have worked with, LOL.

        The industry standard for new construction in Denver is make it work until the day after the warranty expires. YOLO!!!

        1. If we think about all of the so called durable goods including home appliances, hand held power tools, most are designed to barely last till the warranty expires. The new MBA thinking is to make money selling new replacements because the original can’t be repaired or to sell pricy repairs.
          While cars have become better over time, certain parts do break down right after warranty.

          2. A lot of hand held power tools are built to last, like Milwaukee brand for instance. If they weren’t then the companies would go out of business, because tradesmen use them every day, and in a rough manor.

            But things like vacuums, kitchen appliances, etc. most definitely fit your description.

          3. While cars have become better over time, certain parts do break down right after warranty.

            The bean counters took over. It goes something like this:

            Company to engineer: “Design me this water pump.”
            Engineer: “Here it is.”
            Bean counter: “OK, great, but we need to make it with 30% less metal.”
            Engineer: “It will not be as robust or last as long.”
            Bean counter: “That’s ok.”

    2. ‘Unit owners found that many of the most basic elements — such as electric garage doors, the pool deck and an ornamental fountain — ‘were installed cheaply or improperly, have been prone to malfunction or were never completed at all’

      Who’d have thunk that cowboy subcontractors with illegal immigrant crews would perform shoddy work or lack attention to detail. But hey, more profit for the the builders.

  5. ‘They saw prices drop on comparable units in the area, took a list of discounted places to their landlord who agreed to knock $800 per month off their rent for the year ahead. ‘It felt amazing when she said ‘yes.’ I took a victory walk around our street’

    That’s the spirit!

    1. That’s right…. There’s nothing like falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels to get the economys blood flowing……. Nothing like it.

  7. ‘It only breaks even right now, so I don’t even have a maintenance budget…I’m going to have to harm friends to feed the city come 2021′

    Once again, it’s important to make a profit.

    ‘If you have mortgage payments, and nobody’s paying you, it’s sort of like being told to turn lead into gold…They’re going to cause a lot of foreclosures’

    The gumberment is going to wish they hadn’t embarked on this “everybody stop paying your bills – NOW” thing.

    1. I still find it rather curious (i.e. infuriating) that the gov handed out unemployment bonuses and a moratorium on rent at the same time. If people don’t need to pay their largest monthly bill, then why did they need an extra $2400/month?

      1. I am pleased that we are past mid month and there is still no stimulus bill. What is the status of the $400 a week EO? Is that being implemented?

        1. the $400 a week EO

          I read that it will be $300. The EO invited states to kick in the other $100 but broke states will not do that. So the benefit will only be for those already getting at least $100 from their state. The EO is funded for 5 weeks.

          1. It’s hard to ante up with the high rollers when they have a printing press and you don’t.

  8. ‘rent hasn’t dropped in the county since the third quarter of 2010’

    RIEC BS.

    ‘and any talk of a reduction at the start of the year was unthinkable…all neighborhoods where you would be hard-pressed to find anything remotely close to that price before’

    California media lives in a fantasy land.

  12. I just got this from Mr Pinto at AEI:

    ‘We now have conventional conforming refinance rate lock activity for Friday, August 14, two days after the GSE fee was announced. These data are from Optimal Blue, which accounts for about 1/3 of all loan activity. The market response looks to be achieving the GSE’s and FHFA’s goals.’

    ‘Friday’s median cash out rate was unchanged from Thursday and, as compared to Wednesday, August 12, was up 1/8%, to 3.125%. Friday’s median rate and term rate was unchanged from Thursday and, as compared to Wednesday, August 12, was up 1/8%, to 2.875%. Friday’s cash out volume was the lowest daily volume since the week of July 18-24.’

    ‘Friday’s rate and term volume was the lowest daily volume since the week of May 30- June 5. Friday’s GSE cash out share of all such refis was down 4 percentage points to 86%, the lowest share since May16- May 22. Friday’s GSE rate and term share of all such refis was down 5 percentage points to 75%, the lowest share since April 11- 17.’

    ‘Some have observed that cash outs make up only minuscule a portion of total GSE refi volume. Rather it comprises 28% of GSE refi volume.’

    So why would anyone have an interest in seriously understating the cash out volume? Why are we subsidizing cash outs at all?

  13. Silver is soaring this morning, while gold has retraced 50% of last week’s orchestrated smash-down by the Fed’s bullion bank accomplices. It is deeply satisfying to know that the market-rigging has blown up in the faces of the commercial speculators, who have huge paper short positions they will have to cover with physical metal.

    1. last week’s orchestrated smash-down by the Fed’s bullion bank accomplices

      I still don’t believe this. I believe the $100 correction was due to news of the Russian vaccine. The timing and length of the correction matched those of the vaccine. Once the vaccine was discredited, markets went back into crisis mode, which means more demand for crisis metals.

      2. I still don’t believe this. I believe the $100 correction was due to news of the Russian vaccine.

        The Russian vaccine was rushed into production without Phase III trials. Sure, the sheer giddiness of serving as a lab rat for some Russian toxic avenger vaccine was what caused the bullion banks to make a massive dump of paper gold and silver. It had nothing to do with their rising panic over their manipulation of the precious metals markets suddenly blowing up in their faces as retail investor demand for safe haven soared in spite of the “Everything is Awesome!” propagandizing from the financial media.

        1. FYI: as of 8/11/2020 – the latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report – the commercial speculators have a short position of 113, 318 contracts for 5,000 troy ounces of gold each, or a total of 566,590,000 oz of physical gold. It will be a neat trick for them to acquire that much physical gold when bullion dealers are showing inventories almost completely sold out and the available inventory is going for premiums much higher than the spot price indicates. In other words, the bullion banks who have been manipulating the price of gold for years through derivatives and naked shorting might have been caught on the wrong side of the trade as retail investor demand for gold (and loss of confidence in the dollar) has created a short squeeze. I would LOVE to see the Fed’s partners in manipulation get destroyed when they are unable to cover their shorts and the usual suppression tricks fail them. Tomorrow a new COT report should come out: it will be interesting to see if the commercial speculators have covered any of their open short contracts.

          https://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/deacmxsf.htm

    2. orchestrated smash-down

      If the market is actually a “concert”, then ups and downs are likely both orchestrated.

      1. Trading desks at the Fed’s primary dealer banks have been illegally manipulating the precious metals markets for years. Sometimes it becomes so brazen our worthless, captured regulators have to rouse themselves from their coma and pretend to conduct an investigation, followed by slap-on-the-wrist fines but never any criminal consequences for criminal conduct.

        https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-05/jpmorgan-s-role-in-metals-spoofing-is-under-u-s-criminal-probe?sref=5CqwjcI3

  14. ‘Five months after the moratorium was first imposed ‘we are at a breaking point’

    The various rent trackers still say Phoenix rents are to the moon Alice! Somebody is a lion.

  15. ‘There is a mass exodus from Hollywood…And a lot of it is to do with politics.’ His business is booming. ‘August has already set records and we are only halfway through the month,’ he tells me. ‘People are getting out in droves’

    I guess we can add LA to the SF, Seattle and NYC exodus. Read this article and you’ll know why.

    1. And the best part of the article?

      People are taking losses on the sales of their homes to get out.’”

      You’re gonna take a loss on a house getting out, even under the best of conditions.

    2. The video of that assault in Portland last night is chilling.

      How long does the media think they can not report these events?

      Who do they think they’re fooling?

        3. 2nd video down, this is the prelude to the assault on the drive. While they were calling him a nazi and white supremacist, he is far from that. He was assisting a trans person who the thugs were assaulting and robbing. Notice him at the end of the video in the blue t-shirt.

          https://districtherald.com/portland-rioters-attempt-to-murder-man-who-intervened-in-their-robbery-and-assault-of-a-white-trans-person/

          Portland is, indeed, a clown show. I cannot believe this is what the USA has become.

      2. Who do they think they’re fooling?

        A whole lot of people, apparently. People who are going to be very surprised when the race war comes looking for them in their gentrified, inner city neighborhoods.

        1. That guy who got suckerpunch head kicked last night in Portland died today.

          That’s what George Floyd would have wanted.

          2. his death are apparently false

            Ahem. Looks like different dates, different months, different time of day, different intersection and different people.

          3. Definitely one of the ugliest assaults of an already incapacitated victim ever caught on camera.

            But he’s a white guy, so I don’t guess BLM peops give a sh!t.

    3. ” add LA to the SF, Seattle and NYC exodu$. “.

      They’re all headin’ fer Phoenixville, AZ, on accounts the can live cheaper with a slight adju$tment to the weather.

  16. Could pretending that climate change is such a dire issue that we have to immediately ban the use of fossil fuels doom the already impaired U.S. economy to a downward spiral of permanent decline?

    1. Citizen! Your heresy has been duly noted. Pray to St. Greta for forgiveness while your social credit score is forwarded to Apple and Google for review and downgrade.

    2. The country is breaking at the seams, economically and culturally,
      and Doddering Joe is planning to throw away his shot on the alter of St Greta.

      I give him an F- for this idea.

      We’re also going to pay a high future political and economic price for the Bernanke-Yellel-Powell Fed’s magic trick of printing trillions and trillions of dollars out of thin air, since the political establishment interprets this to mean they can blow trillions of dollars on costly pet projects with no real effect.

      The Financial Times
      The Big Read
      Renewable energy
      Biden gambles on placing climate change at heart of US energy policy
      Republicans say the promise to invest $2tn in green energy threatens tens of thousands of jobs in oil and gas sector
      © FT montage
      Derek Brower, US energy editor yesterday

      He served in an Obama administration that oversaw a historic surge in American oil and gas production, as shale went mainstream. Tens of thousands of wells were drilled and energy-bearing rocks fractured from North Dakota to Texas. And the industry cheered when the government he was part of lifted a ban on crude exports in 2015.

      Yet, Joe Biden — armed with a commanding lead in the polls ahead of November’s US presidential election — now promises a root-and-branch overhaul of the American energy system that will put climate change at its heart and which one worried industry adviser describes as “a Tet offensive” on the fossil fuels industry.

      The plan, which will be aired again at the Democratic party convention this week, earmarks $2tn in spending over the next four years to use climate policy to drag the economy out of its pandemic-era recession. But Mr Biden’s plans for the energy sector would reach into everything from Middle East geopolitics to the global race with China over clean tech and is likely to prove unpopular among parts of the US electorate — dependent on oil and gas for jobs — in an election year.

      It stems from an urgency about climate change that has animated much of his party — especially the younger supporters he will need to mobilise. And is made possible by a coming together of factors: drastic falls in clean-energy costs, rapid technological progress, and the devastation of the pandemic, which makes even a $2tn plan seem politically viable.

      “Biden did gain key climate and clean energy provisions in the 2009 stimulus [during the financial crisis],” says Paul Bledsoe, a former Clinton White House climate adviser. “But he also recognises that climate has emerged over the past decade as a premier issue of global security and foreign policy, and is now suddenly a crucial element in America’s green recovery from the Covid crisis, as well.”
      …

      1. “…and the devastation of the pandemic, which makes even a $2tn plan seem politically viable.”

        Rule No. 1 for getting out of a hole:

        STOP DIGGING!

      2. “…now suddenly a crucial element in America’s green recovery from the Covid crisis, as well.”

        Catchy political slogans like Green New Deal will not help salvage the situation we face. But they will help fringe environmental groups raise money to deliver Democratic votes.

        1. ” … to deliver Democratic votes””

          “God mu$t like poor folk$, She made $o many.of.’em!” A. Lincoln 1861

    2. Opinion Commentary
      We’ll Protect America’s Suburbs
      We reject the ultraliberal view that the federal bureaucracy should dictate where and how people live.
      By Donald J. Trump and Ben Carson
      Aug. 16, 2020 4:02 pm ET
      A residential area in Anaheim, Calif.
      Photo: Getty Images/iStockphoto

      The crime and chaos in Democrat-run cities have gotten so bad that liberals are even getting out of Manhattan’s Upper West Side. Rather than rethink their destructive policies, the left wants to make sure there is no escape. The plan is to remake the suburbs in their image so they resemble the dysfunctional cities they now govern. As usual, anyone who dares tell the truth about what the left is doing is smeared as a racist.

      We won’t allow this to happen. That’s why we stopped the last administration’s radical social-engineering project that would have transformed the suburbs from the top down. We reversed an Obama-Biden regulation that would have empowered the Department of Housing and Urban Development to abolish single-family zoning, compel the construction of high-density “stack and pack” apartment buildings in residential neighborhoods, and forcibly transform neighborhoods across America so they look and feel the way far-left ideologues and technocratic bureaucrats think they should.

      We reject the ultraliberal view that the federal bureaucracy should dictate where and how people live. We believe the suburbs offer a wonderful life for Americans of all races and backgrounds when they are allowed to grow organically, from the bottom up. That’s how America’s suburbs are today—except those that have already been ruined by poor planning and policies.
      …

      1. I’m not counting on Donald Trump and Ben Carson to protect my neighborhood. Despite my recent unfortunate series of boating accidents, I’ve still the will and means to defend what’s mine.

        #BlackRiflesMatter

      2. The entire existence of the suburbs is a failure of planning on epic scale! They are mostly soulless and soul crushing at the same time. Anybody dumb enough to believe this is probably too dumb to understand Kunstler’s, “Geography of Nowhere.”

        3. My grandma lived in the inner city of St. Louis back in the early 1900s when it was a German American community, the same one to which some of George H. W. Bush’s ancestors belonged. It was wealthy, stable, and industrious, and they enjoyed some good beer.

          100 years later it was a burned out ghettoized shell of its former self, after all the white folks and anyone else with the means had vacated to the suburbs.

    3. We’re not trying to derail the subject of Ben’s blog, but as I posted the other day, crime is becoming the housing story of 2020.

      Consider the following demographics: renters with money who would someday like to buy (I have money, but am in no hurry to buy), and first time home owners (loan owners) living in urban neighborhoods with children age 5 or under not yet enrolled in school.

      Where will they buy, for their first time, or with their move-up purchase? People with money have options.

        1. No, but it looks fascinating.

          I manually enter the latitude and longitude of mountain summits into Google Maps on a cheap Samsung Android phone. I also use the “I parked here” button to save the location of either the trailhead, or the location of leaving trail to travel across non trail backcountry terrain.

          Even without bars or 4g reception, it works 100% of the time. And no I don’t and never will hike in slot canyons like the movie 127 hours.

          And I always carry paper maps, preferably the National Geographic Trails Illustrated topographic maps.

  18. How is the brilliant business plan to borrow boatloads of money and buy investment property in order to rent it out while waiting for its value to rise working out for Mom and Pop landlords?

    1. “Mizell had recently informed Washington that the defendant would not be involved in distributing the narcotics in Maryland, which precipitated the murder conspiracy.”

      There’s no quitting. Once you’re in, you’re in for life!

  23. As U.S. homebuilder confidence matches record high, mortgage delinquencies rise – Reuters
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-economy/as-u-s-homebuilder-confidence-matches-record-high-mortgage-delinquencies-rise-idUSKCN25D1SI

    (snip)

    U.S. home builder confidence rose for a third straight month in August to match its highest level ever as record-low interest rates spur a surge in buyer traffic, data released on Monday showed in the latest indication the housing market is standing out as a rare bright spot in the economic crisis triggered by the coronavirus pandemic.

    At the same time, however, a growing number of home owners are falling behind on their mortgages with tens of millions still out of work and growing signs that the labor market recovery is softening.

    The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index rose 6 points to 78, matching a series record set in 1998. The median expectation among 30 economists in a Reuters poll was for a rise to 73 from July’s reading of 72.

    NAHB’s measures of both current and future home sales improved.

    1. (more)

      “Housing has clearly been a bright spot during the pandemic and the sharp rebound in builder confidence over the summer has led NAHB to upgrade its forecast for single-family starts, which are now projected to show only a slight decline for 2020,” said NAHB Chief Economist Robert Dietz. “Single-family construction is benefiting from low interest rates and a noticeable suburban shift in housing demand to suburbs, exurbs and rural markets as renters and buyers seek out more affordable, lower density markets.”

      But even as home builder confidence surges, more homeowners affected by the crisis have stopped paying their mortgages, a separate report showed.

      The delinquency rate for residential mortgages rose to 8.2% in the second quarter, up nearly 4 percentage points from the first quarter and the largest quarterly increase on record, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

      Loans backed by the Federal Housing Administration, a program used by many first-time buyers and those with lower incomes, saw their delinquency rate jump to almost 16% – the highest since the survey began more than four decades ago.

      The figures reflect the struggles faced by millions of homeowners during the crisis, including many participating in a forbearance program that allows people facing financial struggles because of the pandemic to put off their mortgage payments for up to one year. An estimated 4.2 million homeowners had loans in forbearance as of the end of June, according to the MBA.

      That forbearance program, combined with rising home values and other loan modification options can offer relief to struggling homeowners, according to Marina Walsh, vice president of industry analysis for the MBA.

      The U.S. Census Bureau will report July’s housing starts data on Tuesday, and economists polled by Reuters are looking for an increase to 1.24 million units on an annualized basis from 1.186 million in June.

      Housing starts plunged this spring during widespread lockdown orders issued to try to contain the virus, but have rebounded sharply from a six-year low hit in April. The economy fell into recession in February as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic.

          1. Think rising homebuilder confidence + V-$haped recovery meme + future inflation expectations, and maybe it adds up?

        2. Seems odd considering we’re paying less for dimensional lumber now than we were a year ago.

          Perhaps sourcing a board at a time from HomeCheapo is part of the problem.

          3. Seems odd considering we’re paying less for dimensional lumber now than we were a year ago.

            Yeah, that’s very odd since it’s not the case out west. I’d like to see your price data.

          4. your price data

            It’s a 2×4 inventory squeeze. If you don’t have inventory, see you in September. The logs themselves are not higher priced.

            Very strange times. Shut down, start up, hurry hurry.

          6. Soaring lumber prices hammer new home construction

            “A combination of factors – led by reduced production and staffing at U.S. mills, the resurgence of Covid-19 in the Southeast and tariffs on Canadian lumber – has cut supplies so steeply that prices have spiked about 25% to 30% in the last couple of weeks. That is adding about $10,000 to the cost of every home Marrano is working on.”

        3. Robin.hood i$ free📈, doe$ any $tayin’.@home.👾.free trader$ have “free.time+⏳.free.monie$💵💰+free.$tock.trade$💻” to me$$ around in whil$t $taying.$heltered🏠🏢.fer.free?🎂🎉

          $eems quite plau$ible!

      1. (Meant in response to Mr Banker’s post on rising homebuilder confidence and delinquencies…)

    1. I.e. almost no Americans can afford even a modest retirement?

      My parents have been retired for over 25 years and got by comfortably on way less.

    2. Say the 8M is divided over 20 years. O% interest earned. That’s still $400K a year. Modest?

      1. Modest?

        That’s pretty funny. I have a “modest” retirement and am on the 20 year plan already. Modest includes ongoing operation of both a small yacht, an Airstream, a fishing boat, a big red pickup truck, steaks on the grill and top shelf whiskey, a girlfriend and a house (in NY no less).

        It’s not taking $400K/yr. It’s not taking $50K. Only in America could this be called “modest”.

        1. My folks are financially stable in the Midwest on $60k a year (about $1.5 million over 25 years). Whoever penned that article must envision massive inflation in the pipeline.

          1. 76?
            Well, no thoughts on that # blu.skie$ …

            Reckon you lost some bearings on my amish.taoist posts.

            Are you like dtRumpsis, just.pulling.#’s.out.of.yer.Ar$e? … Actually, eye had kind thoughts that ye was better than that.I

            Maybee.knot?v

          2. It’s a thought experiment. The author assumes that the retiree wants to live off the interest for life while never touching principle. But the 4% rule was formulated at a time when bond returns were around 5%. Now that yields are hovering near 0, the 4% rule is more like the 0.5% rule. Extrapolating out, if you wanted to live off the interest at 0.5% withdrawal rate, you would need an $8 million nest egg to generate the required returns.

            From a pure logic standpoint, the theory is internally consistent, IF the retiree doesn’t want to touch principle. But at the $8 million, it’s just easier to spend, say, $4 million and not bother with returns at all. Marketwatch twisted the thought experiment into a clickbait headline.

          3. The thought experiment leads to misleading conclusions that apply to almost nobody.

            Nice try…

          4. The flaw is in believing that the underlying assumption is applicable, not in the execution of the thought experiment based on the assumption. The conclusion is correct, given the underlying assumption. Marketwatch wrote a misleading headline based on a non-applicable and unrealistic assumption.

            Save your ire for the author of the article and the clickbait hounds at Marketwatch.

          5. 76?…Reckon you lost some bearings

            Hwy said “Eye’m on the x13 year plan now (age63)”.

            I only added 13 to 63. Perhaps I didn’t reckon where you’re going in 13 years.

        2. Mode$t.
          /ˈmädəst/ … adjective

          una$$uming or moderate in the e$timation of one’s abilitie$ or achievement$.

          Eye’m on the x13 year plan now (age63) … Top $elf.Whi$ky yes, but held mostly in re$erve for good time$ & good friends (Sometines, fer, Sad.Times.too!) … Redwine, like a.river.flows.through.it … Micro.beer, deci$ions, decision$ … (Coor’s with a Mexican break.slow, $imple), renting sail.boat$ in foreign I$lands & villa$ in rural territorie$ … awaiting to drive my Studebaker te$la pickup cyber.knot.a.truck, dang eye hope to live that long!

          3. Well, life’s a mystery, + eye try knot to dwell on all the homemade cast.iron Kansas biscuits & gravy eye’ve consumed as a youngin’!

            Nor running long.distance cross.country through the Santa.Fe.Springs oil fields when “leaded.gas” colored the L.A $miss in the early ’70’$!

            (actually, eye like cobb spinach salads, especially with Newman’s Creamy.Ceasar.Salad dressing!)

            Euwell Grapenuts? 🚫
            🍇…🍷 oh,oh

    3. Why screwed-over proles haven’t stormed the Fed with pitchforks and torches is beyond me.

      Most people don’t even know what the Federal Reserve is. If you asked them, they’d look at you slack-jawed. How can you expect somebody to storm an organization they don’t even know about?

      1. They’ve resigned themselves to living off social security and the luck of significant others and children. They don’t have pitchforks and torches but they do have battery powered wheelchairs and firearms. We’ll see how it goes when the social security is taken…

  26. Tesla stock stops $1800 after soaring 30% over the past four trading days. Meanwhile, food pantries are being crushed by soaring demand.

    One of these things is not like the other.

    1. Clearly there’s never been a better time to buy.

      Tesla’s stock split should be a game-over moment for Wall Street bears
      Matthew DeBord
      Aug 15, 2020, 4:17 AM
      Elon Musk is laughing all the way to the bank.
      Mike Blake/Reuters
      TSLA Tesla
      1833.64 185.64 (11.27 %)
      — Last week, Tesla announced a 5-for-1 stock split, setting off a 20% rally for shares that were already at vertigo-inducing levels.
      — For bulls, it was a buying opportunity.
      — For bears, it was more bad news.
      — And for anyone wondering why Tesla is worth more than GM, Ford, FCA, and the VW Group combined, it was an education in how a negative thesis about a company can steadily fall apart.
      …

    2. One of these things is not like the other.

      Clearly the working class is being written off. As to what its fate will be, we can speculate. Tent cities? COVID camps?

    3. Tesla stock stops $1800 after soaring 30% over the past four trading days. Meanwhile, food pantries are being crushed by soaring demand.

      I mean, this is comical at this point. Tesla LOST over 8% of the EV market share since last year, and the total market share of EVs in the auto market is less than 3%. In no world does this make sense. This is asinine.

        1. We’ll $ee who’$ naked, when the “deeth.👾” is finished munch, munch, munching on the Global.$upply.Chain.$hip, wallowing & a $ittin’.on.thee.$hallow.$ands of over.priced.$helter.$hack.ville$.

          “Alexa, how much i$ that non.pedigree mutt.dog in the window?”

    2. He just closed the Wisconsin airport rally with the Village People — YMCA followed by Elton John — Tiny Dancer. WTF timeline is this? Oh yeah, the one where he gets re-elected and the seethe continues another four years. LOLZ

        1. A few months ago I started a list of favorite songs as I heard them or found them traveling through a you tube rabbit hole.

          I’m up to 71

          Elton John – Tiny Dancer is one of them.

      3. and the seethe continues another four years

        This time they won’t limit themselves to shrieking at the sky. They have learned that they can get away with murder, at least in Democrat controlled cities. I expect coast to coast riots in those places this November. I will stock up on essentials before the big day.

        So what would happen if the Deep State attempts a coup? Would the military defend the nation and the constitution? Or will the citizenry have to do that?

        1. Would the military defend the nation and the constitution?

          A big chunk of the military is very aware that they raised their hand to “support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic”. But I don’t think most have much understanding of what the Constitution means. So mostly they will defend whatever their superiors tell them to defend and just assume it must be constitutional if they are being told to do it. Most veterans only figure it out years later that they had no clue what was really going on.

          1. “Most veterans only figure it out years later that they had no clue what was really going on.”

            Agreed, although I was acutely aware that we were unwelcome invaders. That repetitive message was made clear in all our training.

    1. FHA loans started blowing up last year. So much has happened this spring some here may even have forgot, but the bad loans are still there.

      1. thee.Deeth.👾 … munch, munch, munch … $till.$preading

        (Be$t $tock up on Children’s “it’s.just.a.cold” medicine!)

      2. If you want to be happy, focus your sights on the ever levitating stock market and ignore the depressing mortgage market news.

        1. ” …ignore the depre$$ing mortgage market new$”

          I$ ye trying to “mute” Mafia Block$ & her enthu$iasm for a final “dunmovin'” exit from her Motel.6 executive $uite?

  30. By SARA CLINE Associated Press/Report for America
    August 17, 2020, 5:35 PM

    PORTLAND, Ore. — Protesters punched and kicked a man to the ground in Portland, Oregon, after he crashed his truck onto the sidewalk on Sunday night near otherwise peaceful demonstrations.

    https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/crash-conflict-blocks-peaceful-portland-protest-72414949

    Portland protesters beat driver unconscious after crashing truck near Black Lives Matter rally

    420 views•Aug 17, 2020

    https://youtu.be/60cqUPxYThY

    2. “This is a half ton pickup.”

      With 700-plus-horsepower.

      Not that I can up with a good reason for a half ton pickup to have 700-plus-horsepower.

      1. Not that I can up with a good reason for a half ton pickup to have 700-plus-horsepower.

        I can :-). But yeah, buying these rare special edition vehicles is always way more expensive than buying a cheap one and putting the supercharger on yourself.

    2. After 9/11, people were forced back to their office jobs because internet speed was too slow for people to work from home

      I went remote & WfH before 9/11. The internet was adequate. Instead of Zoom we did conference calls.

    1. Check yer expiration date on yer “Delu$ional” pill$ . … Can you get @ least fresh air in that Motel6 “Executive.$uite”? … ($ad)?&

      RV summer vacation trend explode$ due to COVID-19 pandemic:

      Although RV’ing is nothing new, it has become the latest vacation trend, since it allows families to quarantine on the road and enjoy the outdoors. It can be a struggle to make summer vacation plans during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Sawyer family has traveled all over Texas, but this summer, they’ve taken their RV to Mohican State Park in Ohio, with some simple vacation goals: ‘Get away, get outdoors, get out of quarantine mode but still practice good social distancing,’ Audrey Sawyer, a mother and camping enthusiast said.

        1. You need $un$hine, vitamin D is free, iffin’ ya just.step.outside without yer hoodie.pajama’$. Free!

      2. same with boats. Headlines in local boating rags and even the NY Times “Dealers see unprecedented demand due to closures” Our marina has been open the whole time.

        2. Eye used to have a slip in Oceanside, was there last week, knot.x1.slip empty to be seen … What does that indicate?

    1. All of the YouTube channels covering the Democratic Convention have the comments disabled, but the “dislikes” are running 3 to 1 ahead of the “likes.” Maybe there’s hope for this country after all.

    2. Hi$ job history with thee.Don.thee.CON was … 10 days?, before being run over bye there 🍊.jesus bu$. ($ad)

      1. Uh, the guy ran his mouth in a completely unprofessional manner, dropping a bunch of F-bombs. and was promptly fired. Even he agreed he blew it.

          1. scaramouch noun
            scar·​a·​mouch | \ ˈsker-ə-ˌmüsh
            , ˈska-rə-, -ˌmüch, -ˌmau̇ch \
            variants: or scaramouche
            Definition of scaramouch

            1 capitalized : a stock character in the Italian commedia dell’arte that burlesques the Spanish don and is characterized by boastfulness and cowardliness
            2a : a cowardly buffoon
            b : rascal, scamp

  36. Sturgis 2020 | Antifa Arrives With SOUND | 80th Annual Motorcycle Rally

    3,410,017 views•Aug 15, 2020

    https://youtu.be/Mm0DX_-23aE

    1 day ago
    Antifa is lucky that Sturgis hasn’t defunded the police.

    hilliard girl
    23 hours ago
    they wouldn’t have walked out of there…

    K A
    22 hours ago
    Exactly!

    TJack Survival
    1 day ago
    Antifa at Sturgis…
    we’ll now that’s a whole new level of stupidity.

    1. We were on vacation near Sequoia NP last week when a rolling blackout shut off the power at our Airbnb AND the restaurant where we planned to dine.

      Fun times in the land of fruits, nuts, and clean, green energy!

      The Financial Times
      Coronavirus business update 30 days complimentary
      California
      Californians point fingers as millions face power outages
      Warning of rolling blackouts as heatwave overwhelms a grid transitioning to clean energy
      Residents of Los Angeles and other cities have been told to expect power outages for the first time since 2001
      © AFP via Getty Images
      Gregory Meyer in New York and Richard Waters in San Francisco 4 hours ago

      Millions of Californians have been warned their lights and air conditioning units could go out this week as the state plans rolling blackouts to deal with a record heatwave that has pushed the power grid to the limit.

      While the US’s most populous state avoided large-scale outages on Monday, the situation brought an admission from governor Gavin Newsom that poor planning had left California ill-prepared for extremes in demand during the switch to renewable energy.

      California has vastly expanded the capacity of solar power, and to a lesser extent wind power, in the past decade. The state also allowed a large nuclear power plant to shut down and has curtailed the growth of natural gas-fired generation.

      The drawbacks of solar power have been evident in the past week as temperatures soared daily above 100 degrees Fahrenheit and air-conditioner use lept in the late afternoon and early evening — just as the sun set. Neighbouring states, usually a reliable source of electricity imports, had little left to sell as they slogged through the same heatwave, said officials at the California Independent System Operator (ISO), which manages the state’s grid.

      “The load forecasts reflect the realities of climate change. It’s getting hotter,” Steve Berberich, California ISO’s chief executive, told its board at a meeting on Monday. “Unfortunately, it is near certain that we’ll be forced to ask the utilities to cut off power to millions today to balance supply and demand — today and tomorrow, and perhaps beyond.”

      Mr Berberich said his agency had warned the California Public Utility Commission for years of inadequate power during times of maximum demand. “The situation we are in could have been avoided,” he said.
      …

      1. “The load forecasts reflect the realities of climate change. It’s getting hotter,”

        bull$hit

        1. bull$hit

          + a million. This “climate change” scam is yet another reason why I’m pulling the lever for Trump. Fawk Demorats.

          1. “Climate change” is a convenient scapegoat for California’s failed green energy experiment. I wonder how many people will have to die during blackouts without electricity as a result.

      2. Most of California’s electrical energy is consumed moving water south gradually uphill from the San Joaquin Delta toward Bakersfield and then to Los Angeles, which includes an incredible lift over the Tehachapi Mountains at the grapevine.

        1. an incredible lift over

          The lift is balanced by the drop on the other side. Only the net change in elevation matters.

          1. That’s cool. Wish it worked like that for cars driving from Bakersfield to LA. In Switzerland they just build tunnels through the mountains to save drivers agonizing altitudinal volatility.

          2. “The lift is balanced by the drop on the other side.”

            Several pump lifts happen near the Grapevine with the final one being 2,200-ft at a rate of 4,500-cfs. You don’t get that from Al Gore’s solar panels or wind turbines.

            The drop on the other side is sacrificed for distance, e.g., getting the water where it is needed.

          3. The lift is balanced by the drop on the other side. Only the net change in elevation matters.

            Sort of. The pumps that push the water uphill do lose some power to internal friction in the pumps, so it’s not 100% recovered as the water rolls back downhill.

          4. The drop on the other side is sacrificed for distance

            Then is is only the distance and flow rate. The net change in head is all that matters, not the maximum “height” of the line. Any kid siphoning a pool with a hose has this figured out. Just sayin.

          7. “Any kid siphoning a pool with a hose has this figured out. Just sayin.”

            FWIW: You can’t use a siphon to lift water higher than 30 feet because above that height, an empty region will develop at the top of the pipe and stop the siphon process.

            The height limit of a siphon
            https://www.nature.com/articles/srep16790

          8. Water is amazing stuff, e.g., the triple point, but it has a low vapor pressure, which leads to cavitation that destroys pump impellers. Lastly, falling water is hard on infrastructure and easily scours soil. Hence, its descent is controlled.

          9. Water is easy. Try designing a pump and pipe arrangement where you have to move a liquid with a high density variability.

          11. cavitation that destroys pump impellers. Lastly, falling water is hard on infrastructure

            Cavitation not an issue, the pump is on the inlet end of things.

          15. the woodpeckers

            Well, you can’t pull a vacuum on the suction if it is at atmospheric pressure.

          16. Those damn woodpeckers visit only when the fluid boils at room temperature because you exceeded removal of 1 atmosphere with your pump in the the low pressure zone of the impeller (Or ham and egger fitters performed the suction pipe installation).

            Woodpeckers are carpenters in my world.

    2. Governor Nuisance should own this rather than blaming others for his failed energy policies.

      California Blackouts a Warning for States Ramping Up Green Power
      State has struggled to keep lights on during heat wave that has exposed its difficulties matching power demand with supply
      By Katherine Blunt
      Aug. 17, 2020 7:28 pm ET

      Millions of Californians could lose power in coming days, the state’s grid operator warned Monday, as it continues to struggle with inadequate electricity supplies as many people have been forced indoors to ride out a crippling heat wave during the coronavirus pandemic.

      The rolling blackouts across California serve as a cautionary tale as states across the country increase renewable energy and reduce their reliance on fossil fuels that can generate round-the-clock power but contribute to climate change.

      California, a pioneer in greening its power grid with large-scale solar and wind farms, is struggling to keep the lights on as millions of residents blast air-conditioning units and shelter indoors amid record temperatures.

      The state’s grid operator called twice for emergency outages over the weekend due to inadequate power supplies, in part because demand peaked as solar production began its evening decline. California has been relying far more heavily on natural-gas-fired power plants, which, unlike wind and solar farms, aren’t dependent on the weather to produce energy.
      …

      1. dependent on the weather to produce energy.

        Geeze, even the electrical system is living hand-to-mouth with no overnight savings account. Isn’t anyone working on the storage problem?

        1. ‘During the grid operator’s board meeting Monday, Berberich faulted the commission for failing to ensure adequate power capacity on hot summer evenings, when electricity from the state’s growing fleet of rooftop solar panels and sprawling solar farms rapidly drops to zero but demand for air conditioning remains high. It’s a challenge that will only intensify as California adds more solar panels and wind turbines to meet its targets of 60% renewable electricity by 2030 and 100% emissions-free power by 2045.’

          “For many years, we have pointed out to the [Public Utilities Commission] that there was inadequate power available during the net peak,” Berberich said, referring to the evening period when solar production dries up but cooling demand remains high. “The situation we are in could have been avoided.” He added, “It’s near certain that we will be forced to ask the utilities to cut off power to millions today to balance supply and demand — today, tomorrow and perhaps beyond.”

          ‘So much solar power is generated during the afternoon that California sometimes pays other states to take its excess supply. But there are fewer gas-fired power plants than in past years to pick up the slack each evening. And coal plants have been shutting down across the West because of competition from cheaper natural gas and renewables, meaning there may be less energy available for California to import in a pinch.’

          https://www.latimes.com/environment/story/2020-08-17/public-utilities-commission-to-blame-for-blackouts-caiso-says

          3. Sounds like he plans to remain in office through 2050. And repeat himself alot:

            “As president, Biden will lead the world to address the climate emergency and lead through the power of example, by ensuring the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and net-zero emissions no later than 2050.

            The Biden Plan will:

            – Ensure the U.S. achieves a 100% clean energy economy and reaches net-zero emissions no later than 2050.”

          4. ‘So much $olar power is generated during the afternoon that California sometimes pay$ other states to take its exce$$ $upply.

            You’re being myopic, electricity is “magically” traded across State line$, … Gue$$ y’all forgot that “benevolent” Tayho$$ energy $lut, Ro$$ Perot. ($ad)

          5. “no later than 2050”

            $o Chairman Xi might remind you that the journey of a thou$and mile$, begin$ with thee.1$t.$tep. (+ He Like’s thee.🍊Jesus’s chocolate cake too! Bonu$!)

        2. Need.more.oil.&coal, oil&coal! oil&coal! oil&coal! need.more!…dont’$top.,don’t.$top,don’t.$top, drill.baby.drill!

        3. “Isn’t anyone working on the storage problem?”

          Speaking of storage have you ever read anything about Hover Dam and Lake Mead’s falling reservoir levels? Low surface elevation means lower power output from their generators. Lots of good YouTube stuff out there.

          2. Correct. At some point it isn’t worth rotating the generation equipment. Also as the air temps rise the losses of transporting power on the grid increase too. That’s why you see these fugly power plants sprinkled everywhere in Phoenix rather than the outskirts.

            Reservoir releases from Lake Mead are focused on keeping the necessary surface elevation at Parker dam so that the Central AZ project can get their water out of the Colorado river.

    3. Weather
      130 Degrees: Death Valley Sees What Could Be Record Heat
      August 17, 2020 11:20 AM ET
      Bill Chappell
      Nathan Rott at NPR headquarters in Washington, D.C., September 27, 2018. (photo by Allison Shelley)

      A monitoring station at Death Valley National Park measured a temperature of 130 degrees Sunday — likely a record for August in the park, the National Weather Service says.
      Karla Ann Cote/NurPhoto via Getty Images

      The temperature at Death Valley National Park hit a scorching 130 degrees on Sunday, marking what could be the hottest temperature on Earth since at least 1913, the National Weather Service says. Any visitors to the park are getting blunt advice: “Travel prepared to survive.”

      The 130 degrees recorded at the Furnace Creek Visitor Center is the hottest August temperature ever recorded at the national park, which sits along California and Nevada’s border. Weather experts say it could also be the world’s modern-era high, because Death Valley’s 1913 record of 134 degrees has been disputed as unreliable.

      Yesterday’s incendiary temperature reading was not taken by a human (phew!), but by an automated observation system. The preliminary reading is now in the process of being officially verified.

      “As this is an extreme temperature event, the recorded temperature will need to undergo a formal review,” the National Weather Service office in Las Vegas says.
      …

      1. “The preliminary reading is now in the process of being officially verified.”

        NOAA? …p$haw, the 🍊.jesus has a fresh black sharpie:

        Death.Valley = 69°F, see, No Climate Warming! … (& only “I” can fix it!)

  38. Would you fly now?

    Several young adult family members recently flew. They most likely don’t have COVID-19.

    I myself am not sure if I am ready to fly, just yet. And I was a frequent flyer through March.

    1. Associated Press
      Airlines want people to believe that air travel is safe during the pandemic, but travelers are skeptical
      Published: Aug. 17, 2020 at 2:02 p.m. ET
      By Associated Press
      In a Consumer Reports survey, people said going to a hospital emergency room was safer
      A passenger wears personal protective equipment on a Delta Airlines flight.
      Associated Press
      Referenced Symbols
      LUV -3.12%
      DAL -3.21%
      JBL -3.04%
      AAL -5.32%

      In a bid to survive, airlines are desperately trying to convince a wary public that measures like mandatory face masks and hospital-grade air filters make sitting in a plane safer than many other indoor settings during the coronavirus pandemic.

      It isn’t working.

      Surveys indicate that instead of growing comfortable with air travel, more people are becoming skeptical about it. In the United States, airline bookings have stalled in the past month after slowly rising — a reaction to a new surge of reported virus infections.

      Globally, air travel is down more than 85% from a year ago, according to industry figures.

      The implications for the airline industry are grave. Several leading carriers already have filed for bankruptcy protection, and if the hoped-for recovery is delayed much longer, the list will grow.

      The four largest U.S. airlines lost a combined $10 billion from April through June. Their CEOs say they will survive, but they have lowered their expectations for a rebound.

      “We were all hoping that by the fall the virus might run its course,” said Southwest Airlines (LUV, -3.12%) CEO Gary Kelly. “Obviously, that has proven to be dead wrong.”
      …

      1. I know a guy who is a pilot with United. I haven’t spoken with him since the crash began. I have no idea if he will still have a pay check in the Fall. Fortunately, his wife works for the guberment. Unfortunately they have loaded up on debt.

        1. “Unfortunately they have loaded up on debt.”

          what’$ unfortunate about owning a $1,000,000.00+ @ 0.25% intere$t?

  39. “Is once-proud California basically a Third World country anymore?”

    We were on vacation near Sequoia NP last week when a rolling blackout shut off the power at our Airbnb AND the restaurant where we planned to dine.

    Fun times in the land of fruits, nuts, and clean, green energy!

    $ounds like you’ve become a weak.pink.$nowflake, renting in San.die.go.
    ($ad!!)

      1. “Is once-proud California basically a Third World country anymore?”

        That’$ knot.a.POV, that’$ a bia$ed $tatement, di$gui$ed as a que$tion.

        In math, that’s known as a “fal$e.proof” …

          1. eye’m personally unmoved bye thee ba$hing$, & eye knot.movin’.to.a.trailerville anywhere’$ S&E of thee Mississippi River.

            Search: “Dunmovin’, CA” … (rumor has it, there’s a CA Prop13 $ign buried in a time capsule in their abandoned cemetery)

        2. Just an observation based on the similarity of our rolling blackouts to my daughter’s description of her personal experience during a recent visit to Mexico. I know my data is limited, bad, biased, misleading, etc.

          1. Hone$ty! (that’$ better …)

            Eye, apologize for thee.name.calling.

            (Think the world of you & Mr. Ben’$ commentary’$! Mo$tly.)

          3. The blackouts were something that really annoyed me when I lived in Mexico City. They were especially common in the summer, during the monsoon season. It would start pouring mid afternoon and the lights would go out at the house. Usually power would be restored within 10-20 minutes, but sometimes it was gone for hours.

  41. Corporate debt issuance has hit an all-time high, as CEOs use borrowed money for stock buy-backs to artificially boost their share performance, and their own compensation. Meanwhile, the Keynesian fraudsters at the Fed are buying up corporate debt to help goose their Ponzi markets and asset bubbles. This is not going to end well.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-17/u-s-high-grade-bond-sales-topple-record-reach-1-342-trillion?sref=5CqwjcI3

    U.S. corporate investment-grade issuance reached a record $1.346 trillion Monday, surpassing 2017’s full-year total in less than eight months amid seemingly endless investor appetite following the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented steps to bolster liquidity.

    The Fed’s March pledge to use its near limitless balance sheet to buy corporate bonds has lifted nearly every corner of the market, allowing struggling cruise lines, plane makers and hotels to tap much needed financing while providing top-rated companies from Alphabet Inc. to Visa Inc. and Chevron Corp. access to some of the cheapest funding ever seen.

    1. U.S. corporate investment-grade issuance reached a record $1.346 trillion

      While that is a staggering amount, it is dwarfed by this year’s federal budget deficit.

      We are so boned.

    1. $ell $ell $ell!
      Buy buy buy!
      Churn and burn
      Until your monies are gone.

      Reminds me of something I once read in a “Murphy’s Law” Book: A financial advisor is someone who invests and reinvests all your money until it’s all gone.

      Or as Mr. Banker in the Southpark episode said: “Aaaand it’s gone!”

      1. ““Murphy’s Law” Book: A financial advisor is someone who invests and reinvests all your money until it’s all gone.”

        In U$ Federal.Re$erve “$peak” that’$ known a$: “Re.allowcation’$”

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