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There’s Too Much Inventory – Everyone Gets Lost In The Shuffle

A report from Palo Alto Weekly in California. “The Year of the Pig had a very slow start in our local real estate market. So far, we haven’t experienced anything remotely similar to the usual spring frenzy. Among the 148 new listings so far this year, especially at the very beginning of the year, many were actually ‘leftovers’ from last year, i.e. those houses that could not sell at the end of last year thus relisted this year.”

“Based on the Multiple Listing System, 59 homes exchanged hands in the first quarter, or about half the number from the same period last year. Total transaction volume dropped by almost 60% to $165 million, which translates to a lower median home price. The median home price of all sold homes in the first quarter was $2.68 million, 14% lower than the first quarter of last year, and a further drop from $2.79 million in the second half of last year.”

“The biggest variables that could affect our local property market down the road are those well-anticipated IPOs. Some of the potential sellers also have considered delaying the release their homes to their market until fall to capture the IPO wealth. However, stock performance is never one way. What if those IPOs don’t do well? It would then hurt sentiment and general confidence in the Silicon Valley economy. Housing prices may then start to dive into a real downturn.”

The Denver Post in Colorado. “The peak spring home-selling season is in full swing in metro Denver, but it is proving to be a much tamer affair this year than last. Sellers listed more homes in metro Denver and buyers purchased fewer of them last month compared to April 2018, according to a monthly update from the Denver Metro Association of Realtors.”

“The inventory of properties available for sale at the end of April was up to 7,012, nearly 36 percent higher than a year ago and 11.4 percent higher ahead of March.”

From WKRN in Tennessee. “If you are looking to buy a house, now just may be your time. The Nashville housing market is shifting, becoming more buyer friendly according to Zillow. ‘The word is out that it’s not as white hot as it used to be,’ Shane Tallant with Village Real Estate stated.”

“He attributes the recent shift in the market to supply and demand. ‘Buyers were coming to Nashville and there just wasn’t enough homes for them to buy and it became a sellers’ market because of that. Now basically people are still coming, as we know, to Nashville but there is inventory so it’s kind of slowed that rat race to get a home if you will,’ said Tallant.”

The New York Times. “Welcome to the new era of luxury real estate marketing. With the high-end housing market in and around New York tilting decidedly in buyers’ favor, real estate brokerages and developers are experimenting with all sorts of experiential events to draw attention to their listings.”

“‘We are in Manhattan’s most challenging market in the last decade,’ said Nikki Field, a senior global real estate adviser at Sotheby’s International who has worked on several co-branded events in a $58 million penthouse for sale at the top of 212 Fifth Avenue. ‘People are looking at everything and everywhere. They are no longer focused on certain neighborhoods — a complete pivot from the old Manhattan-centric buyer — because the city has grown in luxury options in all directions. They have a lot of choices.'”

“It’s not new for brokerages to host party-style events in their high-end listings, often as a cross promotion for a new jewelry line, art gallery or wellness guru. But with so many events now cluttering the market, some firms are getting more creative, offering more than a free glass of wine and proximity to celebrity.”

“‘There’s too much inventory — everyone gets lost in the shuffle,’ said Vickey Barron, an associate broker with Compass who last year brought in world-renowned ballroom dancers to wow a wealthy audience in the penthouse at 100 Barclay Street, in TriBeCa. ‘Everyone is fighting for that buyer.'”

This Post Has 41 Comments
  1. ‘Based on the Multiple Listing System, 59 homes exchanged hands in the first quarter, or about half the number from the same period last year. Total transaction volume dropped by almost 60% to $165 million, which translates to a lower median home price. The median home price of all sold homes in the first quarter was $2.68 million, 14% lower than the first quarter of last year, and a further drop from $2.79 million in the second half of last year’

    I spoke too soon, the Palo Alto UHS is back. It was tempting to use this as a headline:

    ‘The Year of the Pig had a very slow start in our local real estate market’

  2. ‘Among the 148 new listings so far this year, especially at the very beginning of the year, many were actually ‘leftovers’ from last year, i.e. those houses that could not sell at the end of last year thus relisted this year’

    Kinda makes that 17 days on market meaningless.

  3. ‘The inventory of properties available for sale at the end of April was up to 7,012, nearly 36 percent higher than a year ago and 11.4 percent higher ahead of March’

    The Post couldn’t bring themselves to mention the 62% increase in airboxes for sale…

    1. Denver = CRATER.

      When public camping is legalized on all city sidewalks and in all city parks, would you want to raise a family in a city covered in heroin needles and human feces? Buy a house here?

      1. Have the local cops been neutered like in Seattle? Because, when you watch “Seattle is Dying,” the cops are forced to stand around and observe tweakers on rampages, pleading with them to “please stop” and “don’t spit on me” rather than grabbing those dirtbags by the hair and body slamming them on the pavement in order to cuff ’em and stuff ’em, which is what should happen.

        1. grabbing those dirtbags by the hair and body slamming them on the pavement

          Somehow, I don’t think that is an harmonious solution to public camping.

      2. “When public camping is legalized…”

        Seems like Kampgrounds of America (KOA) would have an issue with this free schitt vagrancy being sanctioned.

  4. The median home price of all sold homes in the first quarter was $2.68 million, 14% lower than the first quarter of last year, and a further drop from $2.79 million in the second half of last year.”

    Gosh, that would’ve covered many moons of renting.

  5. “He attributes the recent shift in the market to supply and demand.

    I too could earn the big bucks as a real estate expert, if only I had Shane’s uncanny ability to grasp complex economic fundamentals and distill them down to their essence for us slack-jaws here on the HBB.

    1. Construction workers from Honduras and Mexico work on new houses in the Lower 9th Ward.

      More proof there was never a jobs march for people in the 9th ward…No jessie , No sharpton, no Waters none zip…. lots of ads in NYC free fema housing $12Hr+ must speak Spanish.

    2. “adhered to the highest standards of green building”

      LOL @ liberals. Maybe they should have adhered to proper building codes instead, which would probably have held up against the elements better than smug.

    3. An oil spill contractor who has worked all over the planet said that when you shake hands along the gulf coast you should count your fingers afterwards.

  6. Anyone else having Joshua Tree Extension challenges? (I’m seeing a message that it is “corrupt “…)

    1. You must be running Firefox. They sh!t the bed last night, and all the add-ons were disabled.

      1. What browser do you suggest in lieue of Firefox? I’ve been a loyal user, but if they are going to pull a Microsoft and disable functionality that used to work, perhaps it is time to move on.

        1. In their defense it was an accident and they are working on a fix as we speak. However, it was an egregious error that has negatively impacted every single user with add-ons who has been online anytime in the past 20 hours or so.

          I suppose if there’s anything positive to be gleaned from it, it’s the eye-opening reality of how atrocious surfing the net can be without ad blockers and how useful they really are. I don’t know how anybody could stand to go online without them.

          I’ve just been using Microsoft Edge until Firefox installs the fix, which should be today.

        2. “What browser do you suggest in lieue of Firefox?”

          I use Chrome for my banking, online shopping and other legitimate business. Otherwise for fun it’s Firefox with script blocking extensions and a vpn service.

      2. Your Firefox extensions are all disabled? That’s a bug!
        by Martin Brinkmann on May 04, 2019 in Firefox – Last Update: May 04, 2019 – 294 comments

        Some Firefox users started to notice that installed browser extensions were all disabled in the web browser suddenly. Extensions would display “could not be verified for use in Firefox and has been disabled” messages in the add-ons manager of the browser. Firefox would display “One or more installed add-ons cannot be verified and have been disabled” at the top as a notification next to that.

      3. There’s a fix out now, but you have to turn on Surveys in Options->Privacy (if you turned it off) and let it sit for a few minutes.

        Once your extensions come back on (they will automatically), you can turn Surveys back off.

        1. Worst Kentucky Derby ever. The wire to wire winner “Maximum Security” is disqualified for “impeding” a few other horses on the last turn when it was absolutely clear that he was the best horse and would have won the derby anyway. A complete sham. Even the runner up owner said “you hate to win it this way” and he felt bad.

          1. There’s always the Preakne$$ (without mud $lop) to prove be$t hor$e!
            (eye think the fastest mud running horse cro$$ed the finish line in 1$t place this.day, imhto)

  7. “brokerages to host party-style events“

    There was some NYC realtor reality show that was really fun to watch around 2008/9. Agents convinced sellers of luxury apartments to fund elaborate parties for buyers and other brokers. At the end of the episode it would say whether the listings sold after a few months, and most episodes ended without a single sale.

  8. https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-44636934

    “Jakarta, the fastest-sinking city in the world”

    None of this has deterred the property developers. More and more luxury apartments dot the North Jakarta skyline regardless of the risks. The head of the advisory council for Indonesia’s Association of Housing Development, Eddy Ganefo, says he has urged the government to halt further development here. But, he says, “so long as we can sell apartments, development will continue”.

    1. Brings to mind NOLA, and also the California Central Valley.

      Natural geologic processes don’t favor long-term sustainability of settlements in river deltas, and excessive groundwater pumping and sea level rise worsen the prospects.

    2. “Jakarta, the fastest-sinking city in the world”

      Is this man made global sinking?

    3. Though the article makes it clear the subsidence is due to excessive ground water extraction, I notice the BBC still managed to bring up the sea level rise bugaboo.

      1. Its all about manufacturing crisis and then selling people the solution to bring in that sweet sweet $ugar.

  9. “If you are looking to buy a house, now just may be your time. The Nashville housing market is shifting, becoming more buyer friendly according to Zillow. ‘The word is out that it’s not as white hot as it used to be,’ Shane Tallant with Village Real Estate stated.”

    They stole the exact wordings from the west coast in late summer lol. Now is the best time to buy.

    1. There’s this thing, it’s called “moving,” though it can be expensive and there are people who literally cannot afford to do it. This woman may qualify.

  10. Are you fed up with Fed-inflated housing prices and rents? How about considering pickup truck living?

    Pocket Worthy
    Living Full-Time in a Toyota Tacoma
    How our writer turned a midsize pickup into the ultimate adventure home.
    Outside
    by Andy Cochrane
    Photo by Andy Cochrane

    At the end of 2015, I found myself at an inflection point. The Bay Area housing market bounced back, and the owners of my rental decided to sell. I was 27 years old and working long hours at a startup, following a relatively traditional path. I moved all my possessions into a five-by-ten-foot storage unit and headed to Mount Hood in Oregon for a backcountry ski trip. On the drive back, I totaled my hatchback, sold it for cash, tucked my tail between my legs, and flew home to Minnesota. Like any good origin story, you gotta fall before you get back up.

    1. At the waning stages of a protracted mania, gainfully employable young people electing to live in a vehicle in order to avoid euphoric shelter prices seems completely reasonable.

      1. For rent: “Protracted $helter Mania di$count available!”

        eye’s like it Professor!

      2. I see this as eminently reasonable. I cannot fathom why people wouldn’t do this. The Federal Reserve always asks these questions about whether or someone could come up with $400 bucks or something and I think to myself, “Forgoing rent for just a couple of months and diverting it into forced savings seems like a pretty good savings jump start.”

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