What’s your mid-year housing bubble predictions? From six months ago: “In Q1, house prices start lapping the 2018 conventional loan limit increases. As a result, we will start seeing YOY price declines in larger markets. The increase in loan limits in 2019 will help some secondary cities continue to the bubble, since the median price isn’t as inflated as larger cities.
“The increase in loan limits in 2019 will help some secondary cities continue to the bubble, since the median price isn’t as inflated as larger cities. The massive amount of debt issued by the US government will keep pressure on the 10 year yield and therefore pressure on mortgages rates. If mortgages rates fall it will likely be due to a stock market sell off which would not be good for housing.”
“There will be no policy change to tighten lending standards in 2019. But also won’t be any major policy to loosen them either (about as loose as they can get). If they try to privatize Freddie and Fannie it will just cause mortgage rates to increase.”
Another said, “It seems likely that long-term Treasury yields will keep gradually declining for the near term.”
From one year ago, ” Here is my prediction. Both Trump’s so called trade war, and the Fed accelerating interest rate hikes at the same time is no coincidence. I believe Trump is trying to force the Feds hand at keeping interest rates lower, or even reversing direction, so US housing and stocks can continue on climbing higher. The fed will give in, stalling and even possibly making cuts to interest rates, including slowing or stopping the offloading of the Fed’s balance sheet, just like Trump wants.”
“The pressure will come from emerging markets crashing combined with trade war pains. Trump will also propose and pass a second tax break. All of this will keep the stock market and housing market inflated and growing into his re-election. Basically Trump wants the same easy money accommodations given to Oblamer by the fed during his term, and Trump is willing to play hard ball to get it. It was essentially a free ticket for Oblamer, so why wouldn’t Trump want the same thing.”