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More Sellers Lower Asking Prices To Entice Increasingly Finicky Buyers, It’s Part Of A National Trend

A press release from Redfin. “Eleven percent of offers nationwide faced a bidding war in July, down from more than 45 percent a year earlier, according to Redfin. The national bidding war rate hasn’t surpassed 15 percent since November 2018, after falling steadily from a peak of 59 percent in March 2018. ‘On a local level, it’s noteworthy that some of 2018’s fiercely competitive markets—San Jose, Seattle, Los Angeles—have seen their bidding war rates plummet the most year over year. Home prices in these expensive markets have also been falling annually,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.”

“The bidding war rate in San Jose was just 13.3 percent, and in Seattle, the rate was only 7.8 percent. Miami was the least competitive market in July, with just 1.3 percent of the offers submitted by Redfin agents facing competition. Miami was followed by Houston (4.8%), New York (6.3%), Dallas (6.6%) and Las Vegas (7.3%).”

From Vegas Inc in Nevada. “At the end of last month, the association reported that just over 7,800 houses in the Las Vegas Valley were on the market without an offer, a 63% increase from July 2018. For condos and townhouses, 1,864 units were for sale with no offers at the end of last month, up 112% from July 2018.”

“‘By having an increase of homes on the market, that just means there’s more inventory coming on than the people coming from out-of-town who are trying to buy everything up,’ said Tom Blanchard, who will serve as president of the GLVAR next year. ‘There’s more homes left over right now for those of us who live here and are trying to find a house.'”

From 9 News in Colorado. “Denver‘s current housing inventory has some homebuyers pushing sellers on price and inspection repairs. ‘Homebuyers are flexing some muscle in a way they haven’t been able to in recent years,’ said Lane Lyon, a licensed Realtor and managing broker at Coldwell Banker.”

“Increased housing inventory is the reason many buyers are being a bit more nit-picky when it comes to home purchases in the Denver area. Lyon said the number of available homes and condos is more than 20 percent higher compared to last year. Buyers are shopping around and taking longer to make a decision in many cases which is resulting in more days on market for sellers.”

From Seattle PI in Washington. “The Seattle citywide condominium median sales price fell 12.35% year-over-year and nearly 9% from the prior month to $450,500. The most significant declines were in the Capitol Hill and West Seattle areas, which saw double digit dips. In July 2018, only 1 of the 41 condo sales sold over $1,000,000 compared with 10 of 37 for July of this year.”

“The number of Seattle condo listings for sale remained on par with prior months at 700 units (MLS listed) for the month. The number of actual listings is a bit higher when contemplating pre-sales at new condo projects currently under construction.”

The Daily Bulletin on California. “CoreLogic’s HPI determines an area’s home values based on comparisons of single-family home prices to each home’s previous sale price. The index shows Southern California house prices increased year over year for 86 consecutive months. But gains are slowing as homes take longer to sell and more sellers lower asking prices to entice increasingly finicky buyers. It’s part of a national trend.”

The Bay Area Newsgroup in California. “The downtown San Jose sites where key residential towers have been proposed are headed for new owners and developers that would take over the projects from Z & L Properties. China-based Z & L Properties, whose Bay Area offices are in Foster City, is working with San Jose city officials to bring new developers on board to buy the project sites and then develop the towers, which together would produce 526 residential units, once they are complete.”

“That new company would take over the development effort and begin construction on the stalled project. Similarly, the Park View Towers project, slated to rise at 252 N. First St., a development that would incorporate a historic church, also has been hobbled.”

“The Park View Towers property has been burdened with at least two mechanic’s liens that have been lodged by contractors that claim Z & L Properties hasn’t paid them for work they did on that project. Z & L Properties took on in recent years a quartet of major projects to build residential towers in downtown San Jose. Only one of the four has begun construction: 188 West St. James, a 640-unit complex that once was known as Silvery Towers. Property experts believe 188 West St. James hasn’t proceeded as swiftly as one would expect. The project isn’t ready for tenants to move in yet.”

From CNN on New York. “It’s the summertime playground for some of New York’s most affluent residents. But the Hamptons real estate market seems to have lost some of its buzz. The downturn has translated into some pretty good deals for buyers, who snatched up an average discount of 10.4% off the original listing price during the second quarter, according to the Douglas Elliman report.”

“A five-bedroom Nantucket-style home sitting on four acres with a pool, tennis court and its own private beach on Sagg Pond, was originally listed at $37 million, in March 2018, according to the agent that sold it. Eleven months later, in February of 2019, it was reduced to $34 million. It sold in May for $26 million — 30% off the original listing price.”

“Deborah Srb, the agent with Sotheby’s that sold the property for $26 million, said the sale was a reflection of what is going on in the market. ‘It is definitely a buyer’s market and they have the upper hand,’ she says.”

“Even for homes that fall below the luxury threshold, buyers are bidding low. Peter Moore, an agent with Corcoran Group, plans to bring a buyer to an East Hampton property priced at $1.295 million this weekend. The buyer plans to bid $1.1 million. ‘And that’s a firm bid,’ says Moore. ‘If the seller doesn’t accept, my buyer already has their eyes on another home and will bid similarly there.'”

From Patch Massachusetts. “The home for sale that offers the most square footage in Massachusetts is also the priciest on the market, even after the asking price was cut by more than half. Reebok founder Paul Fireman’s eight-bedroom estate in Chestnut Hill boasts 26,623 square feet on realtor.com, the largest in the state. It’s also saddled with a $38 million price tag, which is also the largest in the state.”

“The home, which has been around for 20 years now, hit the market in 2016 with a $90 million asking price. That dropped to $69 million in 2018 and to its current price in February of this year.”

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This Post Has 102 Comments

  1. Man, that’s alot of sawin and a slashin’!

    ‘On a local level, it’s noteworthy that some of 2018’s fiercely competitive markets—San Jose, Seattle, Los Angeles—have seen their bidding war rates plummet the most year over year. Home prices in these expensive markets have also been falling annually,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather’

    But Daryl, you guys said it was to the moon Alice! Wa happened to your prediction?

    Eat yer crowz Daryl!

    2. Not slashing enough. It’s like the stock market. It goes down a little and everyone claim’s it’s a buyer’s opportunity, without considering how much it went up to start with.

      With regard to stocks, they were overpriced BEFORE Trump, and have become more so.

      The big issue for all assets is the early Baby Boomer/Silent Generation selloff. The richest generations in U.S. history are now 62-90. They will be net sellers of everything soon.

  2. ‘The Park View Towers property has been burdened with at least two mechanic’s liens that have been lodged by contractors that claim Z & L Properties hasn’t paid them for work they did on that project. Z & L Properties took on in recent years a quartet of major projects to build residential towers in downtown San Jose. Only one of the four has begun construction’

    But shortage? Bay aryans need airbboxes? All cash Chinese? No cash Chinese more like it.

  3. ‘At the end of last month, the association reported that just over 7,800 houses in the Las Vegas Valley were on the market without an offer, a 63% increase from July 2018. For condos and townhouses, 1,864 units were for sale with no offers at the end of last month, up 112% from July 2018’

    What’s more is the numbers from a year ago were way up. So this is compounding the crater.

  4. ‘In July 2018, only 1 of the 41 condo sales sold over $1,000,000’

    ‘The number of Seattle condo listings for sale remained on par with prior months at 700 units (MLS listed) for the month. The number of actual listings is a bit higher when contemplating pre-sales at new condo projects currently under construction’

    41 sold, over 700 to go! And the article mentions it’s headed into slowtime.

  6. Chinese are heading for the hills…Bay Area, Orange County, Seattle, etc…are all going down hard! Housing Bubble 2.0 is deflating big time and this time its in the big city markets….look out below, buy now and be forever in debt or bankrupt!

    1. ” …be forever in debt or bankrupt! ”

      Yer cheer might bee falling on debt.ear$ (Goin’ $outh … great movie!)

      More people are getting into debt and unable to repay their loan$

      MarketWatch | Andrew Keshner | 8/7/19

      The recent bankruptcy data shows many consumer and corporate filings last month were coming, from southern states. Alabama had the highest per capita rate, with 5.61 filings per 1,000 people, followed by Tennessee (5.39) and Georgia (4.31), Mississippi (4.25) and Nevada (3.79).

    2. Heading for the hills…. which hills? Other hotbeds of real estate like Lagos or Dubai? Bitcoin? Garlic?

      1. “Heading for the hills…. which hills? ” Please, pay attention, oxide. They are being, incrementally, step-by-step,”locked out” so to say. Worldwide. As we might be, too. Watch the video I posted below.

        Keywords: Controlled Demolition
        See also: Brandon Smith.

        You might also wanna watch, ‘The Godfather’ series on video & extrapolate from that. It’s very hard for the average Joe to do, or even the, ‘caught-up-to-speed’ internet dude & dudette.
        On the local level, certain familes run things & have a huge sway in the way things are done. It’s no different on the national scale. You’re absolutely blind, if you say otherwise.

        1. Dude, if you’re that paranoid, why are you even on the Internet at all? You should be in a bunker stocked full of Mountain House.

    3. That said, I am REALLY glad these Chinese are chasing yield and ROI. Instead of chasing actual land and water.

    4. It’s been spotty in the Bay Area. Oakland houses in prime areas are seeing outlandish bidding still. Sometimes 30-40% over asking. People must be highly leveraged. Spending 60% of their take home on mortgage.

  7. Does anyone know how the big real estate databases know when there are bidding wars? I have been an MLS subscriber for 20 years and to my knowledge there are no agent inputs of any kind for offer activity. On the various incarnations of our local system through they years there have been many refinements, but only list prices and selling prices are documented. Contract prices, number of offers, rejected offers etc are not published. My only guess is that if the sales price is higher than last list price would this give a clue but that is not necessarily conclusive for a bidding war. There other reasons this can occur.
    Look at all the builder/contractor defaults and other negative occurances. Definitely the kind of thing that goes on when the downfall starts.

      1. Does not appear that their figures have high precision then. There is just so much BS in the RE reporting. Once the downturn become solidified and undeniable then you MIGHT see real reporting. Still a lot of smoke until then.

    2. RE; “#LearnToCode”

      When you say that, if you know it or not, you’re acting on behalf of the empire. See also, ‘You Are Being Groomed” It’s a video, so you can understand.

      …Or, maybe you like the empire, I.D.K.

      1. Here’s the danged link to the video, produced by a very fine chick, if you’re interested in knowing how your a cheerleader for the empire when you say, “learn to code”: https://youtu.be/VbOv_ClA7j0

        I hope you realize the error of your ways.

        1. Are we allowed to say “Get an honest job”?

          It’s so hard to keep up with the speech police.

          1. Watch the video, BlueSkye. What I said is just about as far from being, “the speech police” as you can get. It’s more of a, ‘heads up’, if you can catch the drift. Anyway,…It appears that I’m wasting my time, here. Truth is perceived as a lie, facts are mistaken for opinion, & honest discourse is unwelcome in the age of empire where even the very meaning of the word, ’empire’ is unknown to those under its thumb. 1984, for real. Peace, love and happiness.

          2. Watch the video

            I watched it. Amazing Polly references the Ashlee Vance/Bloomberg series that someone posted last week, which I found fascinating and frightening. I agree that we are being groomed to accept a surveillance state. I’ve commented previously that we’re waiving our Fourth Amendment rights for the convenience of smartphones and in-home personal assistants. While I agree with some of Smith’s overall themes, I think it’s premature to conclude that Trump is a pied piper and/or globalist. As a nonpartisan voter, I was given two choices in the 2016 election. I voted based on my experience and perceptions of both candidates having lived in NYC when HRC carpetbagged the Senate seat then later living in a Trump building and walking daily the riverfront he built to get the building in which I lived approved.

            I really appreciate that Ben allows his blog to be a free speech forum!

          3. My presence at Ground Zero on 9-11 and having a friend who thankfully escaped his apartment just south of WTC1 and WTC2 and lived in my 700sf apartment for 3 months thereafter also inform my views. In hindsight, I see how the tragedy and trauma was used to convince the populace to accept the Patriot Act in the name of safety. It’s only in the last year that I’ve learned that WTC7 fell too.

          4. Watch the video, BlueSkye…I’m wasting my time, here

            I’m not really good at obeying instructions. You haven’t really said anything intelligible aside from telling us what to read and what to watch. And you dismiss us as idiots. You may be onto something that we’re all not aware of, but that is not apparent.

            The article was lame, I’m not watching your video.

      2. RE; “#LearnToCode”

        When you say that, if you know it or not, you’re acting on behalf of the empire.

        Kindly piss off.

      4. You’re just the life of the party I bet 😀

        A real genius on pretty much every topic, telling everyone what to read, watch, and how to think. The irony is rich with this one ladies and gentlemen

        1. He’s scared, and is doing what he can to help us understand what’s coming, as he understands it because he cares about this community. I doubt hes spamming tumblr with this stuff. Take it as good intentions and move on, even if his delivery is unpolished. Nothing is personal; everything reflects the mindset of the speaker. Sticks and stones, babe. Also, thank drumming for Joshua Tree. Btw, BlueSkye, you’re my internet mentor. Thanks for the clear thinking and concise explanations.

  11. “On a local level, it’s noteworthy that some of 2018’s fiercely competitive markets—San Jose, Seattle, Los Angeles—have seen their bidding war rates plummet the most year over year. Home prices in these expensive markets have also been falling annually,’ said Redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather.”

    Bidding wars are an artifact of the mania that are destined to eventually go away along with the Housing Bubble itself.

  13. Global macro trader who nailed the 2008 crisis says next 3 months mark ‘edge of the cliff’ for markets—and ‘we’re there right now’
    By Mark DeCambre
    Published: Aug 7, 2019
    4:49 p.m. ET
    Raoul Pal tells MarketWatch that we are at ‘most fragile point in global financial markets since the eurozone crisis in 2012’
    Are investors staring over the edge of the market cliff?

    Financial markets are at a crucial inflection point and Wall Street investors should look no further than the U.S. dollar for the clearest sign of the increasing stress on the system that could ignite a financial crisis a la 2008, says Raoul Pal.

    The former GLG global macro hedge-fund co-manager, who was among the few investors that predicted and profited amid the 2008-09 mortgage meltdown, told MarketWatch in a Wednesday interview that the current set up has led him to a grim forecast for the economy and markets.

    “The conclusion has to be that this is the most fragile point in global financial markets since the eurozone crisis in 2012, and potentially the start of the Great Recession in 2008,” he said.
    …

  14. 10-year yield drops under 1.6%, 30-year yield nears record low as collapse in rates accelerates
    Published Wed, Aug 7 2019 2:35 AM EDT
    Updated 4 hours ago
    Thomas Franck

    Investors again rushed for the safety of government bonds and dumped stocks on Wednesday, exacerbating the August exodus away from risk assets as traders around the world settled in for a U.S.-China trade war without an end in sight.

    The flight to safety sent the yield on the 10-year Treasury note — used as a benchmark for mortgage rates and auto loans — falling to a low of 1.595%, the lowest since autumn 2016. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond bottomed around 2.12%, near its all-time low reached in 2016. Yields pared some of their declines later in the session, but held steady near multiyear lows.

    The 10-year Treasury rate is about 40 basis points below its level one month ago, down more than 35 basis points in August alone and representing a sizable move for the relative stable U.S. bond market. The yield ended July above 2%.
    …

      1. Apparently flight-to-quality moves can become quite intense when central bankers are the first movers.

  15. “Eleven percent of offers nationwide faced a bidding war in July, down from more than 45 percent a year earlier, according to Redfin.

    You’d have to be a special kind of stupid to get into a bidding war when the data and headlines are screaming out that Housing Bubble 2.0 has already begun to burst.

  16. Buyers are shopping around and taking longer to make a decision in many cases which is resulting in more days on market for sellers.”

    Anyone who buys now is a complete and utter moron, when the writing is on the wall for what’s coming down the pike. Those who sit tight until the carnage has played itself out are going to be richly rewarded for their patience and prudence.

    1. What makes you think the Fed won’t once again swoop in to make greater fools look smart?

      Or have their recent interventions so FUBARred the global financial system that further, extremer interventions are not an option?

  17. For the benefit of HBB newbies, I’m going to explain the difference between CA housing guru Chris Thornberg’s “mix market,” and a tanking market.

    In a mix market, inventory builds up, while sales and prices plunge.

    In a tanking market, inventory builds up, while sales and prices plunge.

    Got it?

  18. Good news for gold investors:

    Gundlach: Gold should keep rising if negative-yielding debt keeps growing
    Julia La Roche
    Yahoo Finance
    August 7, 2019, 8:26 AM PDT

    Prominent bond investor Jeffrey Gundlach, the CEO of $140 billion DoubleLine Capital, nailed his bullish gold call from September 2018, and now he sees further upside for the yellow metal as the supply of negative-yielding bonds balloons.

    “At this point, I think the way to think about it is, as long as the volume of negative interest rate bonds outstanding increases, it’s quite likely that gold moves higher in a similar vein,” Gundlach told Yahoo Finance in an interview on Tuesday evening.
    …

    1. Behold the lowest government borrowing rates in the history of mankind.

      Global worries lead 30-year UK gilt yields to record low
      By David Milliken

      LONDON, Aug 7 (Reuters) – British 30-year government bonds led a slide in gilt yields to new record lows on Wednesday, joining a global rally in fixed income after weak German industrial data and the U.S.-China trade conflict boosted demand for safe haven assets.

      Thirty-year gilt yields broke past a previous low of 1.186% that had held since August 2016, when the Bank of England launched its last round of bond purchases, dropping as much as 11 basis points on the day to bottom out at 1.081%.

      “Looking forward, an increasing number of observers no longer expect the trade conflict to be resolved before the upcoming US elections in November 2020, and the risk of recession can only increase in such a situation,” Italy’sUniCredit wrote in a note to clients.

      At 1452 GMT, the 30-year gilt yield stood at 1.12%, still down 7 basis points on the day and on track for its biggest daily decline in more than a month.

      Ten-year gilt yields broke past a record low dating back to August 2016 on Monday, and hit a fresh record low of 0.432% on Wednesday, and were on track to close 5 basis points lower at 0.47%.

      Twenty-year gilt yields fell below 1% for the first time on record.

      For many British investors, even low-yielding government bonds are more attractive than sliding shares at a time when global risks as well as the chance of a disorderly Brexit on Oct. 31 shorten the odds of an economic downturn.
      …

      2. This economic downturn was predicted for Uk prior to the Brexit vote. However the UK had been doing better than the rest of the EU. Seems despite what the Globalists are saying the EU needs the UK more than it needs the EU

    2. Bless you, weak hands, for gifting me your beaten-down gold and silver mining shares over the past six months. You really are too kind.

    3. Markets
      Amount of global debt with negative yields balloons to $15 trillion
      Published Wed, Aug 7 2019 10:22 AM EDT
      Updated Wed, Aug 7 2019 10:54 AM EDT
      Maggie Fitzgerald
      Key Points
      – About $15 trillion of government bonds worldwide now trade at negative yields, according to Deutsche Bank.
      – Historically, people give the government their money, instead of spending it, with the promise of being payed back over time, with interest. Now, governments are essentially getting paid to borrow money, as people become increasingly desperate for a safe haven for their wealth.
      – Although the spread between U.S. bond yields and the rest of the world is wide, its possible the U.S. could get sucked into this global trend.
      …

    1. Who’s going to fill that space successfully if Saks can’t? Nike? Turn it into condos? Somebody just bought themselves a slashing from a falling knife.

    1. Business
      Commentary: Money-market funds won’t keep you safe from negative yields
      $100 bills
      Considering cash as a haven from the growing pile of low- or negative-yielding debt doesn’t pass muster, now that the Federal Reserve is no longer gradually raising interest rates.
      (Lauren Raab / Los Angeles Times)
      By Brian Chappatta
      Bloomberg
      Aug. 7, 2019 11:48 AM

      Cash is just a flash in the pan.

      The inherent appeal of U.S. money-market funds is undeniable. For one, they’re a stable alternative when the United States’ trade war with China is whipsawing equity markets. Plus, they still pay more than 2% interest in a world in which $14.5 trillion of debt yields less than zero, including 30-year German securities and even some junk-rated corporate bonds. Last week, Barron’s published an article titled “The Case for Going into Cash Now,” which made both of those points.

      The first one holds up. If an investor believes that the Trump administration’s trade disputes will continue to roil risk assets, then it makes perfect sense to park money in cash, collect a modest return and wait out the storm before returning to the market at a cheaper price. Granted, the Standard & Poor’s 500 index has looked as if it peaked before, only to reach new highs, so it’s anyone’s guess whether this latest escalation will be what topples the decade-long bull run in stocks.

      However, considering cash as a haven from the growing pile of low- or negative-yielding debt simply doesn’t pass muster. The difference between now and, say, a year ago is that the Federal Reserve is no longer gradually raising interest rates. Quite the contrary: Bond traders are now expecting the fed funds rate to fall almost 50 basis points by the end of October. They see the central bank’s lending benchmark tumbling to about 1% come early 2021.

      This rapid easing will take its toll on money-market funds — the yield advantage they enjoy now will evaporate quickly. As I wrote in June, cash investors were already coming to grips with the idea that the industry was at its peak. The Fed’s well-telegraphed interest-rate cut last week, its first in more than a decade, might have been the tipping point. Total net assets in money-market funds fell in the week that ended July 31, the first outflow since April, according to Investment Company Institute data. At about $3.3 trillion, the amount of cash in money markets is still near the highest since early 2010.

      It’s true that cash has far less duration risk than longer-term bonds, which could hand fixed-income investors steep losses if inflation or economic growth rebound suddenly. The Barron’s article notes that if the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond exchange-traded fund, known by its ticker TLT, simply reverted to where it was three months ago, it would mean a 7% loss for investors. The benchmark 10-year yield was around 2.5% then.

      I’ll never say never, but it’s hard to see a path back to those levels anytime in the near future. Rather than fret about a quick 75-basis-point climb in 10-year yields, the more pressing question for investors should be when (if ever) they expect to see interest rates this high again.

      In Europe, for instance, it seems investors have all but given up hope of a return to normalcy, which explains the incessant bid for ultra-long debt that still offers a positive rate of return. In effect, 30-year French bonds that yield 0.6% is a way of expressing that short-term rates in the region are unlikely to climb much above zero in the coming decades. And here’s a staggering data point from Bloomberg News’ Sebastian Boyd: The average yield on an investment-grade bond in euros is a measly 4 basis points, the lowest ever.
      …

      1. Negative rates are asinine. Some idiot CB’s brain fart. Their thinking is so one dimensional: CB: “Lower rates must be good, since they stimulate the borrowing and consumption. Therefore negative rates must be even better!” Never mind that no one has any business manipulating interest rates or the economy at large. Neg. (-) rates on bonds (IOU’s or debt) mean that the bondholder (lender) pays the bond issuer (borrower). This is completely a$$-backwards. Welcome to our bizzaro world of finance in the 21st century; this is NOT a normal economy. Savers, pensioners, pensions, insurance cos, even the entire global economy are being systematically destroyed by low/zero/negative rates. Price discovery goes out the window. There are currently $15T (and counting) of global bonds “paying” negative rates. What is the value of anything? It’s whatever the CB says it is. I propose that we’re approaching the terminal phase of Keynesian economics, with CB policies not unconventional, not unprecedented, but taken to the extreme outer limits of fiscal and monetary absurdity. Notice that gold price is sniffing out the insanity. Gold is the, well, “gold standard” and has been for over 5,000 years. My comment to the banking cartel: Want to charge me interest for holding my safe time deposits vs. paying me interest? Go ahead and try. Make my day. Keep pushing for your “war on cash”. Who needs cash (esp. essentially worthless fiat monopoly money Federal Reserve Notes). Gold is up over $1500/oz. today, not so much because of inflation (which is still a lot due to currency debasement via money printing), but more so due to the insanity of CB actions on interest rates. Can’t print gold (although I’m sure they’re trying). Got gold? CBs have painted themselves into a very small corner. They now have extremely limited options as the next financial crisis unfolds. The financial system is screwed. It’s only a matter not if, but when it collapses. Bankster attempts at bailouts at taxpayer expense will be met this time with taxpayers holding torches and pitchforks and exercising their second amendment rights. Tar and feathers are too good for them. Sound money. End the Fed.

        1. “Negative rates are asinine.”

          Common sense suggests there should never be a market for a debt instrument that yields less than zero percent but, nevertheless, there it is, which says a lot about what passes for common sense these days.

          Like it , love it, want more of it.

          1. Negative rates aren’t THAT crazy. Interest is kind of like speed: it’s relative (to inflation). The problem is that to make it really work the central banks will literally have to abolish paper money. That’s gonna weird people out big time.

        2. Got gold?

          Well sure. I put some away at $350. I guess it wouldn’t hurt to sell a few ounces to take a nice trip somewhere.

        3. Truth be told, I doubt central bankers anticipated that their protracted period of flooding the global financial system with electronic money would precipitate an era of negative yielding sovereign bonds. I rather suspect they are as surprised as the rest of us about the unprecedented outcome their policies precipitated.

        4. If you buy a thousand ounces of gold and pay someone 1% per year to hold it, you have been paying a negative rate for the last 5 years? That seems to be changing but gold holders have been paying a negative rate for holding fees and inflation for many years.

          1. When yields on loans to stable sovereign entities go negative, the intrinsic zero percent yield on The Precious starts to look pretty good by comparison.

          4. That’s quite the emergency survival stash!

            My thought was who would I trust so much that I’d be willing to pay them to hold it for me? I couldn’t think of anyone. So I guess I don’t see it as an emergency survival stash if somebody else is holding it.

          6. I’m having some web work done and it may be causing things to go wacky. I’m gonna suspend comments for awhile.

        5. “Bankster attempts at bailouts at taxpayer expense will be met this time with taxpayers holding torches and pitchforks and exercising their second amendment rights.”

          Good thing that the torch is cheap, readily available and uncontrollable.

    1. I’m certain the Plunge Protection Team played no role whatever in quelling the burgeoning global financial panic.

      Markets Briefing
      Sovereign bonds
      US stocks fight back amid mounting economic gloom
      Investor confidence steadies as government bond rally loses steam
      US government bonds are typically seen by investors as a haven in times of market stress
      © Reuters
      Peter Wells in New York, Philip Georgiadis and Adam Samson in London and Alice Woodhouse in Hong Kong
      9 hours ago

      US stocks closed in positive territory and a government bond rally lost steam on Wednesday as investors pushed back against deepening concerns over the global growth after a trio of central banks slashed interest rates and fresh warning signs emerged over the health of the German economy.

      The S&P 500 finished 0.1 per cent higher, fighting back from a decline of as much as 2 per cent soon after the opening bell. An afternoon rally for tech stocks also saw the Nasdaq Composite close 0.4 per cent higher, although the Dow Jones Industrial Average settled 0.1 per cent lower.

      A rally in Treasuries, which have benefited both from expectations of looser monetary policy and their “haven” appeal, cooled during the afternoon. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was down 2 basis points at 1.719 per cent, but had dropped as much as 11 basis points earlier today to 1.593 per cent, its lowest level since October 2016.
      …

      1. May be true, but if it is it shows unlike in 2008 they are still in control. It is when they try and fail that you really have to be out of stocks. You can beat a rigged game if you know how it is rigged. Not saying you should try but it can be done.

        1. You can beat a rigged game if you know how it is rigged.

          I’m sure that’s true. But it always feels like no matter how much I might study it, it will always be rigged in more ways than I can ever learn or even imagine.

    2. The Financial Times
      US interest rates
      Yield curve sends strongest recession warning since 2007
      Bond market indicator worsens as questions swirl about Federal Reserve’s next move
      James Bullard, St Louis Fed president, said it was unrealistic to expect the central bank to respond to trade war rhetoric
      Colby Smith in New York and Brendan Greeley in Washington 6 hours ago

      A widely watched bond market indicator sent its strongest recession warning in more than a decade on Wednesday, as the global growth outlook dimmed and questions swirled about the Federal Reserve’s commitment to cut interest rates in light of rising US-China trade tensions.

      The yield on three-month US Treasury traded as much as 41.23 basis points above that on the benchmark 10-year government bond — the widest gap since March 2007. Such an inversion of the yield curve — in which short-term yields are higher than longer-term ones — has preceded every recession of the last half century.

      The difference narrowed by about 10bp later in the day as US stock prices gained ground and a government bond market rally lost steam, but the persistence of the yield curve inversion underscored the anxieties in global financial markets.

      Analysts said fears about global growth were exacerbated by interest rate cuts by New Zealand, India and Thailand, a dismal industrial production report in Germany and the growing likelihood that the UK will leave the EU without a deal in October.

      “The next recession couldn’t have been better telegraphed,” said Mark Holman at TwentyFour Asset Management. “There is a trade war between the two global superpowers with both sides digging in their heels and the clock is ticking towards a hard Brexit, so it really does make sense to take risk off the table.”
      …

      1. If we are still in a trade war with China Hunter Biden’s ties to the Chinese government are going to be a bigger issue, looks like the Democrats are going to run the wrong candidate as of right now.

  27. Is it reasonable to guess that AlbuquerqueDan has gone away due to having his ass recently handed to him on his risk asset HODLings?

      1. fastFT Oil
        Crude prices sink to 7-month low as outlook for demand darkens
        Harry Dempsey in London yesterday

        Crude prices plummeted to fresh seven-month lows as the escalating trade war tensions between the US and China hit the outlook for oil demand while a surprise build up in US oil stockpile added to supply glut concerns.

        Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, tumbled as much as 5 per cent to $56 a barrel, the lowest level since January and down over 25 per cent from the highest peak of the year reached in April. Western Texas Intermediate, the US marker, dropped almost 6 per cent to $50.52 a barrel, a level last seen in mid-January.

        The drop in crude prices has taken down the stocks of oil companies with it, with the share price of ExxonMobil, BP and Royal Dutch Shell all declining by more than 7 per cent in the past week.
        …

    2. Wrong again Bear just very busy as I will be today. I have always said I have a lot of metal stocks to act as a hedge plus I write call options on my holdings. This is the perfect market for that strategy. Lots of ups and downs but pretty flat overall. Write the options during the manic periods and let time and corrections reduce the price of the call, and rewrite during a manic period. We have mixed data, today initial unemployment claims way down to amazing numbers. Recession does not look imminent. Only holding stocks going into major recessions must be avoided. These less that ten percent corrections you get your panties in a bunch over are too difficult to time to worry about and are healthy for the market.

  28. As much as I like the President, this negative rate nonsense means a soup kitchen near you, than again maybe not, Campbells is ready to fold, anybody ready for beans and stale cornbread?

    1. El Salvadoran poster boy for the sanctuary movement do-gooders turns out to be an alcoholic abuser with multiple arrests. This is my shocked face.

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