The Days Of Fast Offers And High Prices Are Now Largely Gone
A report from KSNV in Nevada. “Housing analysts are starting to see a foreclosure uptick once again, and unfortunately, Las Vegas is at the tip of that financial spear. Veteran real estate broker Kristen Riffle says she’s seeing it. ‘People aren’t making their mortgage payments due to numerous factors, the economy inflation all the things you can imagine,’ she says. So how bad could it get? Probably not too bad, because economists and real estate professionals saw it coming.”
The Baltimore Sun in Maryland. “A Baltimore Circuit Court judge approved the foreclosure sale of Kevin Spacey’s condo overlooking the Inner Harbor in August. The actor’s last $20,230 monthly mortgage payment was for June 2022, according to court records, and he owed $171,727 and counting in back payments in February on the unit in the Ritz-Carlton Residences, Inner Harbor Baltimore. The townhouse cost around $5.6 million, and according to court records, Spacey still owes the bank around $4 million. The Pier Homes at Harborview Council also is seeking money from Clear Toaster, claiming the LLC owes more than $43,000 for unpaid expenses.”
From The Street. “We are also finally starting to see major cracks developing in the housing market. Home prices have largely dodged the highest average mortgage rates since the turn of the century, but I don’t think that lasts much longer — and the next direction for average selling prices will be down. Thirty-two percent of homebuilders reported lowering prices compared to 25% in the prior month. In addition, 60,000 home orders were cancelled in August, or 15.7% of all orders. This is the highest level since October 2022 when mortgage rates similarity spiked. On Tuesday, housing starts were reported to have plunged 11.3% in August from July’s levels, badly missing expectations.”
“AirBnB is also facing increasing challenges. The company’s business is getting scapegoated by politicians and others for the huge hikes in home prices and rental costs over the past couple of years. I have noticed that here in South Florida about one in every 12 new listings seem to be around an abode that was previously used primarily as an AirBnB property. This tells me the business is not nearly as lucrative for hosts here as it has been.”
From Fortune. “As mortgage rates began to spike last year, homebuilders across much of the country began to reduce their profit margins—which had grown to record levels during the boom—to do things that would entice buyers back into the market.’ KB Home’s CEO Jeff Mezger says that Denver—where Lennar is offering its 4.25% mortgage rate buydown—is still their weakest housing market. ‘The [housing] market where the premium to resale got too far out there, and the market has been correcting, and it has been difficult for the industry, would be Denver. Where prices just moved very quickly, and moved away from affordability, and we’re continuing to adjust there and demand remains a little more sluggish than average,’ Mezger says.”
My San Antonio in Texas. “The San Antonio market has had its ups and downs over the last few months, but it appears to be slowing from a sellers market to a buyers market. The month of August saw a total of 3,168 listings sold — 175 more than July. However, there were 137 fewer home sales than August 2022. Of the homes sold, 2,160 were existing homes and 1,008 were new constructions, according to the San Antonio Board of Realtors market report. With new construction homes consisting of nearly a third of the properties bought in August, more buyers have been attracted to newly constructed homes than before. ‘Depending on the price point, the market has slowed way down,’ said Doug Curtis with The Curtis Team at Keller Williams Realty. ‘We’re in the middle of a transition from a seller’s market to a buyers market. We’ve been in the seller’s market since 2008, so it’s a long time coming for the shift to happen.'”
San Diego Metro. “As insurance executives might see it, the 21st century gold rush is outside of California. To others in the Golden State, it could appear they’re settling a score. San Diego County homeowners, plus many in California, are seeing as much as a 100% increase, sometimes more, in their annual property insurance costs. Homeowner’s insurance is so challenging the sale of a mansion for about $20 million in ritzy Rancho Santa Fe hasn’t closed yet because not a single carrier, so far, will write a policy to cover the home. ‘The availability of insurance is what’s affecting the closings in our state right now,’ said CAR President Jennifer Branchini. ‘The cost of insurance is affecting some of the closings because the borrower is maybe not able to qualify any longer because of what the insurance cost is. Let’s say if normally a policy was going to be $1,500 or $2,000 a year, maybe those quotes are coming in triple or more than that.'”
“San Diego mortgage broker David Stein says the increase in insurance premiums ‘doesn’t affect affordability because if you can’t afford a $50 increase a month, you shouldn’t be buying a home in California. You probably overextended yourself to the point where you’re in trouble,’ he added.”
The Real Deal. “Troubled loans tied to office buildings across the U.S. are on the rise, with commercial borrowers in Chicago, Denver, Philadelphia and San Francisco among the hardest hit. The rate of delinquent or specially serviced commercial mortgage-backed securities 2.0 loans rose to 6.8 percent in August, up from 4.5 percent in June last year, the Silicon Valley Business Journal reported, citing figures from Kroll Bond Rating Agency. More properties face foreclosure as landlords struggle to fill vacant offices, while refinancing office towers becomes a tougher challenge. Chicago tops the list for troubled loans at 22.7 percent, followed by Denver at 19.1 percent, Philadelphia at 14.2 percent and San Francisco, where a third of its offices are empty, at 13.9 percent. The rate of distressed commercial debt was nearly 14 percent in Houston, more than 7 percent in New York, and approaching 6 percent in Los Angeles and nearby Riverside, according to a KBRA chart.”
“A smaller number of loans backing large office properties has generally driven distress rates higher in major markets, Roy Chun, senior managing director and head of CMBS surveillance at KBRA, told the Business Journal. But he said some markets show an increase in distressed loans because of other properties. In Houston, for instance, the hotel delinquency rate hit 56.1 percent.”
The Globe and Mail in Canada. “Real estate deals are slower to come together in Ontario’s Prince Edward County these days as the rush to small-town and rural living that led to an influx of new residents at the start of the COVID-19 pandemic subsides. Sales have slowed considerably in Prince Edward County in 2023, says real estate agent Miranda Miller of Harvey Kalles Real Estate. This year’s spring surge that pushed up prices in Toronto and other cities did not materialize in Prince Edward County, she adds. New listings are increasing now that the fall market has begun, Ms. Miller says. But buyers who waited out the frenzied bidding contests of the past are careful not to overpay in today’s cooler environment, Ms. Miller says. ‘They say, ‘if this one doesn’t work out, there are 329 more we could look at.'”
“She is also seeing some sellers cut their asking prices as they adjust to a dip in sales. Homeowners still had high hopes heading into the spring, she says, but many have now seen several months of declining values. ‘People are just trying to meet the market where it is,’ she says. ‘They tried their summer price.’ The average number of days on the market is now approaching 50, she says, and the average price has dropped to about $790,000 from more than $1-million at the peak, she says. Houses in need of some refurbishment were changing hands at about $800,000 at the peak, she says. Now buyers can find a fixer-upper close to the $500,000 mark.”
“Some city dwellers have also realized they haven’t settled into a slower lifestyle as easily as they anticipated. Some aren’t prepared for the quieter winters, says Ms. Miller, when many activities shut down until maple syrup season revives the social scene in March. ‘We always like to have a great conversation,”’ Ms. Miller says of new potential buyers. ‘How much do you know? Is it the right fit for you?’ In many cases, investors were taking out a second or third mortgage on an existing property, she explains. Ms. Miller adds that some existing owners of short-term rentals have grown weary of the constant turnover. They are turning to the long-term rental market instead. Some sellers who have seen their property sit have also decided to offer the home for lease.”
The Irish Times. “The Government has ‘played the part of spectators’ as mortgage holders have been hit with rising interest rates, according to Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald, who said it is ‘farcical’ for Fine Gael to claim it supports home ownership. During Leaders’ Questions, the Dublin Central TD said she had spoken with a ‘stressed out’ father-of-two from Co Cork who said his mortgage repayments have increased from €800 to €1,200 per month. ‘I could feel the pressure in his voice when he told me that his family have now started to cut back on essentials to try and keep up with the massive hikes,’ she said.”
The Citizen in South Africa. “While buyers are able to find good deals in the market and secure a favourable rate on a mortgage loan, the challenge in the market for sellers right now is how to sell in a buyer’s market. One of the first things that happens in a buyer’s market is that there are fewer buyers around to compete for the greater number of properties on offer. This usually means offers are slower to come in, and when they do, buyers tend to offer lower prices. If you really need to sell, the first thing to consider is to avoid the temptation to overprice your property. According to Seeff’s agents, the days of fast offers and high prices are now largely gone. Instead, the market is now dictating prices. If you are selling right now, you may well be competing against 3-4 similar properties in your area or property category in the same price range. Thus, unless your property offers something more than those competing properties, your chances of success may depend on your price.”
Yahoo Finance. “More new homebuyers are selling off their property at a loss, as they try to avoid the pain of rising mortgage repayments. Looking at properties sold within just two years, CoreLogic found the portion of homes selling at a loss had increased to 9.7 per cent, up from just 2.7 per cent a year ago. The median amount lost was $30,000. However, the losses were even bigger in some Aussie suburbs. In Sydney’s Strathfield, for example, nearly a third of all sellers made a loss of $65,000, on average. Meanwhile, in the Melbourne CBD, two in five sellers failed to make a profit, losing $47,500, on average.”
“CoreLogic head of research Eliza Owen said the deep dive into short-term resales highlighted more pain for recent home buyers. ‘Two years is a significant time period because we are two years on from the height of pandemic-related lockdowns, low interest rates, and have just passed the peak of transitions from low fixed rates to high variable rates,’ Owen said. There’s also a higher portion of new homebuyers selling up, with the number of homes sold within two years of purchase increasing by 1 per cent to 8.5 per cent over the past year. ‘This suggests more sellers are willing to incur a loss at the moment, which could in part be the result of high interest rates,’ Owen said.”
From Barron‘s. “The forces that powered China’s growth over the past 20 years have stalled or shifted into reverse. There’s no doubt that China’s feeble recovery from a three-year period of strict Covid restrictions and crackdowns on property and the private sector has battered business and consumer confidence. Slower growth combined with Xi’s increased intervention in the economy and more aggressive stance globally—including military exercises over Taiwan and raids on foreign businesses—have shined a harsher light on problems that have long worried U.S. executives and investors. Foreign direct investment in China has dropped from $100 billion a quarter about five years ago to $5 billion as companies repatriate profits rather than reinvest, says Nicholas Lardy, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a China economy expert. ‘That’s a marked change from when companies used to think China was a great place to invest,’ he says.”
“The MSCI China has lost almost $2 trillion in value since its peak in February 2021, with the index down 54% since then. Since 2019, U.S. investment in Chinese private equity and venture capital has fallen by more than 50%.”
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‘if you can’t afford a $50 increase a month, you shouldn’t be buying a home in California. You probably overextended yourself to the point where you’re in trouble’
Wa happened to my sound lending Dave?
And I’m sure Dave wrote plenty of loans over the last three years with debt-to-income ratios well above 40%. And I doubt if he’s ever told anyone they really shouldn’t be buying a home.
‘Some city dwellers have also realized they haven’t settled into a slower lifestyle as easily as they anticipated. Some aren’t prepared for the quieter winters, says Ms. Miller, when many activities shut down until maple syrup season revives the social scene in March. ‘We always like to have a great conversation,”’ Ms. Miller says of new potential buyers. ‘How much do you know? Is it the right fit for you?’
You know, it gets really cold in these igloos licking yer frozen maple syrup. They call it wine country cuz that’s the only way to get through the winter!
It’s time to break the country apart like Yugoslavia.
Another Ukraine article incoming?
“Another Ukraine article incoming?”
(Presto!)
NATO Fractures: In U-Turn, Poland Announces It Will No Longer Arm Ukraine
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/nato-fractures-u-turn-poland-announces-will-no-longer-arm-ukraine
The dam is breaking on unified Western support for Ukraine, and the timing couldn’t be worse for Zelensky, given tomorrow he’s expected to meet with President Biden at the White House. On Wednesday evening there is monumental news out of Poland which could potentially change the entire course of the war.
“Poland will no longer arm Ukraine to focus on its own defense,” Polish prime minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced just hours after Warsaw summoned Ukraine’s ambassador related to a fresh war of words and spat over blocked grain, according to the AFP. Warsaw has throughout more than a year-and-a-half of the Ukraine-Russia war been Kiev’s staunchest and most outspoken supporter.
Will this massive and hugely significant about-face mark the beginning of the end? Are peace negotiations and ceding of territory in the Donbas inevitable at this point?
Within the last 48 hours relations between Poland and Ukraine quickly spiraled to their lowest point since the Russian invasion, and it is directly related to Warsaw leading a handful of EU countries to extend a grain export ban on Ukraine, amid continuing anger and outrage from Polish farmers who are suffering due to their country being flooded with cheap Ukrainian wheat.
Crucially, Poland will hold parliamentary elections on Oct.15. The prior atmosphere of enthusiastic pro-Kiev rhetoric has drastically changed, now with comparisons likening Ukraine to a “drowning man”. As The Associated Press explains:
Polish leaders have compared Ukraine to a drowning person hurting his helper and threatened to expand a ban on food products from the war-torn country. Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that EU allies that are prohibiting imports of his nation’s grain are helping Russia.
Now, Polish officials, who are trying to win parliamentary elections next month with help from farmers’ votes, are expressing dismay over some of Ukraine’s latest moves
(Go to the link for the rest of the article.)
Does that mean Poland is a Putin ally now?
So how bad could it get? Probably not too bad, because economists and real estate professionals saw it coming.”
Wut? Economists & REIC shills have been pushing the “Remain calm – All is well!” line this entire time. Can’t allow the truth to jeopardize Always Be Closing.
On Tuesday, housing starts were reported to have plunged 11.3% in August from July’s levels, badly missing expectations.”
Gosh, does this mean we should lower our expectations?
I have noticed that here in South Florida about one in every 12 new listings seem to be around an abode that was previously used primarily as an AirBnB property. This tells me the business is not nearly as lucrative for hosts here as it has been.”
Die, speculator scum.
** Veteran real estate broker Kristen Riffle says she’s seeing it. ‘People aren’t making their mortgage payments due to numerous factors, the economy inflation all the things you can imagine,’ she says. So how bad could it get? Probably not too bad, because economists and real estate professionals saw it coming.”
“saw it coming?” SAW IT COMING!?!?”
now THAT comment almost made me fall-outta-my-Barcalounger-in-hysterical-laughter!
EVERY OTHER REPLY from Real-tors during the last downturn was; “Who coulda knowd?” when asked about the dismal state of housing affairs, to justify their feigned ignorance.
but NOW we are to fully trust a profession that makes it’s living from highly lucrative sales commissions!??! HAHAHAHA. omg i can’t stop laughing. Myrtle, where’s my oxygen tank?
fool me once? shame on you.
fool me twice?
just use Old Yellers rifle, grandpa, & put me down ’cause I’m too schtupid for words.
Now that inflation is fully contained and the Fed has paused its rapid series of rate hikes, are Wall Street stock traders shedding tears of joy?
Financial Times
Markets Briefing Markets
Global stocks fall on fears of more US interest rate increases
Oil prices decline over concerns about growth in world’s largest economy
A montage of a globe and a chart
Global stocks fall on fears of more US interest rate increases
Daria Mosolova in London
58 minutes ago
European and Asian stocks fell while oil prices retreated on Thursday, as hawkish policy guidance from the Federal Reserve fuelled investors’ concerns over global economic growth.
Europe’s region-wide Stoxx 600 and Germany’s Dax both fell 1.2 per cent, led by declines for consumer cyclicals and energy stocks.
France’s Cac 40 gave up 1.5 per cent. Asian markets also fell, with China’s benchmark CSI 300 down 0.9 per cent and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng 1.3 per cent lower.
Futures contracts tracking Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 declined 0.6 per cent, while those tracking the tech-focused Nasdaq 100 fell 0.8 per cent ahead of the New York open. Both indices declined in the previous session.
…
It does indeed look like JP wants to break something.
“It does indeed look like JP wants to break something.”
– Happens every time. Housing is very rate sensitive, so that’s front and center. Also, bubbles aren’t sustainable and always burst. An inconvenient truth.
– Right now the Fed is fighting the “transitory” inflation that they caused. $5T in $ printing for fiscal + monetary stimulus will do that you know. The arsonists in charge of the fire brigade.
– Fighting the last war via interest rate hikes. This hits middle America directly. Fed balance sheet still north of $8T. Hardly budged. This supports asset prices and loose financial conditions, which supports the wealthy and not middle America.
– The Fed needs to at least reduce their balance sheet to pre-pandemic levels, but that would whack asset prices. BTW, any balance sheet >0 means they’re monetizing the debt. Banana Republic stuff.
– Nothing was learned from the 1970s, 1980s inflation, since inflation is just another tax on the middle class. Other people’s money. Other people’s problem. Wage price spiral all over again. Need a deep recession to kill it. Jay Powell is no Paul Volcker.
– The Fed isn’t your friend. They are the enemy. The Fed is part of the Federal Government. Draw your own conclusions…
– A soft landing is a pipe dream.
This is what a “soft landing” looks like…
https://youtu.be/j7AWa5hrOPk?si=LZYnfd1aHaDUwUYL
It’s all being done on purpose. They aren’t that stupid.
It does indeed look like JP wants to break something.
Sure, if you mean by stoking inflation. His mandate is stable prices, so naturally he’s doing the opposite.
JP already broke Silicon Valley break. The rise in interest rates directly caused the downfall. BFF Janet had to step in and save his butt, for now.
JP also wants to break his reputation as a wimp who caved and pivoted when the markets tried to crash in December of 2018.
It would be NICE if JP broke the banks by making them roll over their debt into those high interest rates that the rest of us have to pay. But, that’s the one thing he won’t break. I think he’ll just buy their debt instead. We will own nothing (especially housing) and be happy to rent.
Financial Times
Eurozone inflation
Bundesbank warns eurozone must avoid entrenched inflation ‘at all costs’
Joachim Nagel’s hawkish comments contrast with investor expectations of an end to rate rises
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said inflation in the eurozone is ‘only expected to fall gradually’
Martin Arnold in Frankfurt
22 minutes ago
The head of Germany’s central bank has warned that eurozone inflation is still falling too slowly, pushing back against investors’ hopes that the European Central Bank will stop raising interest rates.
Bundesbank president Joachim Nagel said policymakers must avoid a scenario where high prices become “entrenched” in the eurozone economy “at all costs”, adding that inflation is “only expected to fall gradually”.
Economists believe major central banks are getting closer to the end of their aggressive rate increases to combat inflation after the US Federal Reserve held its policy rate unchanged on Wednesday. The Bank of England also kept rates unchanged at 5.25 per cent on Thursday after UK inflation was much lower than expected in August.
…
Financial Times
Federal Reserve
Federal Reserve hardens commitment to ‘higher for longer’ interest rates
New projections and remarks from chair Jay Powell signal no near-term relief from elevated borrowing costs
Montage of Jay Powell and Federal Reserve logo
Jay Powell, chair of the Federal Reserve, hinted that a higher-for-longer approach was warranted because estimates of the so-called ‘neutral’ interest rate could be higher than thought
Colby Smith in Washington yesterday
For months, Jay Powell has tried to scotch hopes that the Federal Reserve will perform an abrupt about-face when it reaches the apex of its historic rate-rising campaign.
The US central bank chair on Wednesday hammered home the point in a press conference after the Fed decided to hold its benchmark rate steady at a 22-year high. His remarks, which were buttressed by a new set of economic projections, sent a clear message: any relief from high borrowing costs will be neither swift nor generous.
The projections, which also include a ‘dot plot’ of individual interest rate estimates, showed that after one more increase this year — lifting the federal funds rate to between 5.5 per cent and 5.75 per cent — most officials see a much slower path of rate cuts in 2024 and 2025. Despite the Fed keeping monetary policy tight, they predicted economic growth would remain relatively robust and the unemployment rate would not rise materially.
…
“…any relief from high borrowing costs will be neither swift nor generous.”
It’s SOL for the Group Thinkers who keep telling each other that rates are headed back down in 2024.
And for the “don’t worry about, we’ll refi you into a lower rate next year” crowd. No refi for you!!
so-called ‘neutral’ interest rate
Are we Goldilocks? Not too much, not too little? Don’t kill the Golden Goose? The Fed is a crime outfit and steals as much as they can get away with all the time. In my lifetime, it’s been a long game of suck and blow which always goes through a shake out phase they calculate will not completely kill off the prey. Went too far this time? We’ll see.
They shouldn’t use that word “neutral”.
Updated Thu, Sep 21 2023
9:00 AM EDT
Dow futures drop nearly 200 points as interest rates climb to multi-year highs: Live updates
Alex Harring
Pia Singh
Traders working at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE), on Sept. 20th, 2023.
Stock futures fell Thursday, deepening losses for the week, as Treasury yields climbed to multi-year highs investors amid the Federal Reserve’s plan to keep interest rates at higher levels for longer.
Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average were lower by 169 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures lost 0.8%, while Nasdaq 100 futures slid by 1.2%. All three major benchmarks headed for their third negative session in a row.
The 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.48%, its highest in more than 15 years, with the latest catalyst being weekly jobless claims data showing a still strong labor market that could encourage the Fed to stay in hiking mode. Weekly jobless claims decreased by 20,000 to 201,000 for the week ending Sept. 16, much lower than the 225,000 claims expected by economists polled by Dow Jones. It was the lowest volume of new unemployment claims since January.
The 2-year yield topped 5.19% after the jobs data Thursday, also the highest levels seen since 2007.
The three major averages closed at session lows Wednesday after the Federal Reserve said it would leave interest rates unchanged, but forecast another rate hike before the end of the year. The central bank also indicated fewer rate cuts next year, essentially saying it would need to keep rates higher for longer because stubborn inflation.
Fed Chair Jerome Powell commented after the decision that a soft landing for the economy was still possible, but not his baseline scenario.
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
30-Year Mortgage Rates Jump by Double Digits
Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – Sept. 18, 2023
By Sabrina Karl
Updated September 19, 2023
Rates on 30-year mortgages continue to yo-yo after spiking to a 22-year high earlier this month. Friday’s 30-year average jumped by 16 basis points, reversing much of the large decline it saw in previous days last week. As a result, the current average is higher week-over-week, though it still sits a bit below its historic peak.
…
Rates on 30-year new purchase mortgages jumped 16 basis points Friday, rising to an average of 7.76%. That follows a four-day decline of 17 basis points, essentially returning the average at the end of the week to the same place it started the week. The flagship average now sits just 8 basis points below Sept. 7’s historic reading of 7.84%—its highest mark since 2001.
…
https://www.investopedia.com/30-year-mortgage-rates-jump-by-double-digits-7970974
The 10yr yield is at almost 4.5 this morning. So I’m sure we’re about to crash through the 8% mortgage rate this morning.
Business
Stock market today: Stocks drop in an ugly day as allure grows to buy a Treasury bill and chill
The New York Stock Exchange on Wednesday, June 29, 2022 in New York. Stocks are off to a weak start on Friday, continuing a dismal streak that pushed Wall Street into a bear market last month as traders worry that inflation will be tough to beat and that a recession could be on the way as well. (AP Photo/Julia Nikhinson)
By STAN CHOE
Updated 1:41 PM PDT, September 21, 2023
NEW YORK (AP) — Wall Street fell sharply Thursday in an ugly day for stocks worldwide on expectations that U.S. interest rates will stay high well into next year.
The S&P 500 lost 1.6% for its worst day since March. That followed a drop of 0.9% from Wednesday after the Federal Reserve indicated it may cut interest rates next year by just half of what it had earlier predicted. The Fed has already hiked its main interest rate to levels unseen since 2001, which helps slow inflation but at the cost of hurting investment prices.
High-growth stocks are typically among the hardest hit by high rates, and Big Tech stocks took the brunt of the pain for a second straight day. The Nasdaq composite dropped 1.8% as Amazon fell 4.4%, Nvidia dropped 2.9% and Telsa lost 2.6%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 370 points, or 1.1%.
Stock prices tend to fall when rates rise because stocks are riskier investments. Why stomach the chance of their big swings when Treasurys are paying more in interest than before? And they’re paying much more.
A 10-year Treasury is offering a yield of 4.48%, up from 4.40% late Wednesday and from only 0.50% three years ago. It’s near its highest level since 2007.
The two-year Treasury yield, meanwhile, wavered following some mixed reports on the economy. It slipped to 5.14% from 5.17% late Wednesday after climbing earlier in the morning.
…
https://apnews.com/article/stock-market-rates-fed-inflation-bc93bb79ec805fd4adee0df0663a8cca
Financial Times
Oil
Hedge funds add fuel to oil price rally with bets on rise above $100
Speculators have increased their long positions as crude has climbed almost 30% since June
An oil refinery in California
Hedge funds’ oil bets are adding impetus to a rally in Brent crude, sparked by Russia and Saudi Arabia’s reduction in exports and production
George Steer and David Sheppard in London yesterday
Hedge funds are piling into the oil market betting that prices will soon pass $100 a barrel, adding impetus to a rally sparked by production and export cuts from Saudi Arabia and Russia.
Riyadh’s extension until December of a 1mn barrel a day oil cut, in addition to further cuts under its Opec+ target, has compounded Moscow’s move to limit exports and pushed prices for Brent crude, the international oil benchmark, to $95 a barrel this week, a fresh high for the year.
Exchange and regulatory data suggested hedge fund positioning had exacerbated the near 30 per cent move higher in prices since June, with a surge in buying accelerating in the past two weeks for both Brent and US crude futures.
The latest data showed that the combined fund net long position in Brent and West Texas Intermediate, the US benchmark, jumped by 137,000 contracts, or 35 per cent, to an 18-month high of 527,000 contracts in the two weeks to September 12.
The figures, equivalent to more than 500mn barrels or about five days worth of global demand, are a widely followed proxy for the activity of speculative players like hedge funds.
…
Yahoo
Yahoo Finance
Stock losses deepen as Wall Street braces for ‘higher for longer’ interest rates: Stock market news today
Karen Friar and Hamza Shaban
Thu, September 21, 2023 at 1:02 PM PDT·1 min read
In this article:
Tech stocks led a broad equity retreat Thursday, as Wall Street fretted about the hawkish message sent out by the Federal Reserve alongside its decision to hold interest rates steady.
The S&P 500 (^GSPC) sank 1.6%, after losing almost 1% on Wednesday, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) dropped 1%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) fell about 1.8% to continue to lead the declines.
After combing through the central bank’s forecast, investors believe its policymakers see interest rates staying “higher for longer.” The debate is over just how long that “longer” will be, given the central bank signaled another hike at one of its final two meetings this year. Goldman Sachs has pushed back its forecast for a Fed rate cut to the fourth quarter of 2024.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-losses-deepen-as-wall-street-braces-for-higher-for-longer-interest-rates-stock-market-news-today-200215923.html
KB Home’s CEO Jeff Mezger says that Denver—where Lennar is offering its 4.25% mortgage rate buydown—is still their weakest housing market.
BTO – You Ain’t Seen Nuthin’ Yet
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4cia_v4vxfE
Alameda’s losses on the fat-finger trade were staggering – on the order of tens of millions.
https://news.yahoo.com/finance/news/bitcoin-87-drop-2021-caused-073440072.html
LOL@ imagine if the federal government shut down on October 1st and never re-opened?
And nothing of value was lost.
I wonder if Canadians have any inkling of what’s coming their way.
https://twitter.com/FinanceLancelot/status/1704675378013278256
Every mortgage renewal will be an awakening. Those stretched out amortizations may mask the pain, but at renewal it’s back to 25 years. AFAIK.
“Foreign direct investment in China has dropped from $100 billion a quarter about five years ago to $5 billion as companies repatriate profits rather than reinvest, says Nicholas Lardy, a nonresident senior fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and a China economy expert. ‘That’s a marked change from when companies used to think China was a great place to invest,’ he says.”
Is a 95% decline over five years alot?
Is the Greenspan put history?
2 hours ago – Economy & Business
Stocks sell off after Powell crushes rate-cut hopes
Matt Phillips, author of Axios Markets
The Fed didn’t touch rates Wednesday. And stocks still didn’t like it.
…
https://www.axios.com/2023/09/21/fed-decision-stock-market-sell-off
Updated Thu, Sep 21 2023
9:33 AM EDT
Dow falls for a third day, loses 100 points as Treasury yields reach multiyear highs: Live updates
Alex Harring
Pia Singh
…
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/20/stock-market-today-live-updates.html
because economists and real estate professionals saw it coming.”
UHS people aren’t liars, they are comedians
Germany has ‘reached limit’ of its migrant intake, says president
https://www.msn.com/en-gb/news/world/germany-has-reached-limit-of-its-migrant-intake-says-president/ar-AA1h0hwX
You would think that an attorney general who has presided over the embarrassing debacle of the Hunter Biden investigation would express contrition, or maybe a little anger at the underlings who have shamed him, when he is hauled before a congressional committee to explain his failures.
But alas, Merrick Garland is just another Mr. Magoo. His department is ablaze but he knows nothing. The nation’s chief law enforcement officer has no special insight into the malfeasance unfolding under his nose.
He is just an oblivious bystander, unperturbed by the tyrannical turn the DOJ has taken under his leadership, persecuting his boss’s political enemies and coddling the crooked president’s crooked relatives.
Even though Garland used to be a judge, he makes no judgments at all. He professes to have no view about US Attorney David Weiss’ farcical five-year “investigation” of the president’s 53-year-old son Hunter.
https://nypost.com/2023/09/20/ignorant-pathetic-merrick-garland-wilts-on-the-hot-seat/
What shameless act or felonious activity was not evidenced on Hunter Biden’s laptop? Racist attitudes toward Asians? Soliciting prostitution? Felonious use of drugs? Photographed nudity and perverse sex? Admissions to illicit foreign shakedowns?
Hunter all but accused his own father, President Joe Biden, of also being on the foreign take: “I hope you all can do what I did and pay for everything for this entire family… Unlike Pop I won’t make you give me half your salary.”
Hunter’s alleged felonies range from bribery to tax evasion. That he has not yet been prosecuted for anything is scandalous. His exemption is attributable only to Attorney General Merrick Garland’s likely weaponized directives to federal prosecutors to downgrade or forget altogether felony charges against Hunter.
https://www.riograndesun.com/opinion/what-game-is-hunter-biden-playing/article_0ce4dd3e-57dd-11ee-a4f9-0fa7f826cd63.html
*Even though Garland used to be a judge, he makes no judgments at all. He professes to have no view about US Attorney David Weiss’ farcical five-year “investigation” of the president’s 53-year-old son Hunter.
“Justice delayed is justice denied.”
William E. Gladstone
“…The availability of insurance is what’s affecting the closings in our state right now,’ said CAR President Jennifer Branchini…”
So Jennifer, no one could of seen this coming?
Never mind that the HBB and its readers have been warning about this exact scenario [wildly increasing holding costs] for well over decade.
This is just the beginning [at least here in SoCal]. All holding costs, insurance, property taxes [mostly local], utilities, maintenance are on huge upswings with no end in sight.
I’ll be buying with CASH rather than a mortgage. What insurance will I need? Just replacement cost for the house?
You might be on to a trendline.
Self-insurance may be a reasonable/only alternative to outrageous homeowner, fire, liability premiums.
Or a combination of self-insurance and coverage at a *very* high limit.
I did this for my auto collision and saved a ton of money.
coverage at a *very* high limit
What do you mean?
I meant to say ‘very high deductible’
👍
Liability and contents?
Like our renters’ insurance?
Not sure you’d want separate policies, though it is possible. I did while it was under construction (renovation).
Dumver is also being swamped by “refugees”. Dumver are sent about a third of them to other cities.
https://coloradosun.com/2023/09/21/migrants-immigration-bus-tickets/
from the same Colorado Sun article that InCo published:
“In December, the mayors of Chicago and New York, both Democrats, criticized Colorado Gov. Jared Polis for sending buses of migrants to their cities.”
hot potato. hot potato. who’s got the hot potato?
a song comes mind. goes somethin’ like this;
You like potato and I like potahto
You like tomato and I like tomahto
Potato, potahto, Tomato, tomahto.
Let’s call the whole thing off
Ella Fitzgerald
(if only we could)
What if every city sent them to the DC area? Flood it with millions of illegals. Cut off the food. Illegals riot and wipe the area out.
I’m sure they would be loaded into departing buses upon arrival, as they were in Martha’s vineyard.
I wonder if the FedGov will setup up huge camps in remote flyover areas and ship them there. Three hots and a cot in a trailer.
DC has been flooded with illegals for a long time. Used to be Central Americans, but now we’re seeing more South America. The only silver lining is that American kids are probably learning Spanish. In 5-10 years, young people will all be bilingual.
Historically Hispanic immigrants’ children lose their Spanish. The speak really bad English instead of really bad Spanish. Rich suburban kids of all colors aren’t going to learn or speak Spanish.
In December, the mayors of Chicago and New York, both Democrats, criticized Colorado Gov. Jared Polis for sending buses of migrants to their cities
Good old Jared asked suburbs and exurbs to chip in and take some refugees into their towns. They replied with a resounding no, saying that they were all flat broke and couldn’t help. Next thing you know he and then Denver mayor Hancock (the dude who tweeted “don’t travel for the holidays” from the airport and got busted) started loading refugees into buses and sent them away.
And now the buses are arriving again from the border and Dumver is even broker than last year. Lots of hot potatoes. Perhaps new Mayor Johnston and Gov. Polis will just turn the refugees loose and tell them to fend for themselves, perhaps hoping that churches and charities will step into the void, but being that 3000-4000 are arriving every month, it looks like every church basement in Denver will soon be full and winter with sub freezing temperatures will soon be here. And this is on top of Dumver’s already huge homeless crisis.
The people in the picture I posted below are not Mexicans. They are from South America and Africa.
From what I have been hearing the Mexodus has slowed dramatically. The invaders in the caravans are not Mexicans. Have also read that the caravans are not welcome in Mexico as they are disruptive. That said, the Mexican government has been issuing transit visas to the invaders, with the understanding that their final destination is the USA. rather than seal their southern border.
That said, the Mexican government has been issuing transit visas to the invaders, with the understanding that their final destination is the USA. rather than seal their southern border.
There’s a lot of money to be made while they journey north.
I’m at the Home Depot on Santa Fe near Alameda right now and there are 40+ criminal invaders by the driveway entrance trying to steal jobs from Americans:
https://ibb.co/wyLCdwk
Almost all military age males. GTFO of my country, you don’t belong here.
I read an article about the freight train riders. The article claimed they are 30% women and children, but every picture and video I see of the train riders are 100% young men.
It does seem that the numbers are growing fast, I read that every train in Mexico has at least 1000 stow aways, which explains the increase in buses arriving in places like Dumver. Mexico has halted the trains, officially for safety reasons. In some videos you can see and hear the caravaners complain loudly, demanding that the trains start running again.
There are 40+ criminal invader illegals outside the Home Depot on Santa Fe near Alameda right now trying to steal jobs from Americans.
Sorry if double post phone is being weird.
Looks like a typical day in my barrio. The local Home Depot must have kicked them out of their parking lot, because now they stand at the bus stop/7-11 lot across the street.
10 years ago, Home Depots used to have sample of their sheds in the parking lots; they have since been removed. I can guess why.
Staten Island Protesters Arrested After Blocking Bus Carrying Illegal Immigrants
By Matthew Lysiak
9/20/2023
Police made 10 arrests after fed-up Staten Island residents took to the street Tuesday night and physically blocked the arrival of a bus carrying dozens of illegal immigrants to a residential school that had recently been converted into a shelter.
“The police are arresting law-abiding American citizens to protect law-breaking non-citizens,” Mark Fonte, a lawyer who has filed a lawsuit on behalf of residents of Staten Island trying to stop the city from relocating illegal immigrants to the borough, told The Epoch Times. “The mayor is using his emergency powers to place these unvetted immigrants in residential communities against the will of the people, and the people are angry.”
“The residents are trying to send a message to the migrants that they are not welcome here,” added Mr. Fonte.
“The police are arresting law-abiding American citizens to protect law-breaking non-citizens”
The Great Replacement brought to you by the Anti Defamation League and Southern Poverty Law Center.
Marxist globalists need the rope ☠️
Wagner Forces Capture Azawad Separatists In Mali
🇷🇺💀🇲🇱 “Our proud Tuareg does not surrender to the enemy”
https://www.bitchute.com/video/uNqq6VBCLYNn/
12 seconds.
As the Fed prints us down the road to Weimar Republic 2.0, will $10,000 bills be making a comeback?
https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/currencies/10000-dollar-bill-us-treasury-record-auction-1934-rare-currency-2023-9?
Christians, just say no to pulpit prostitutes from globalist-subverted “woke” denominations.
https://evangelicaldarkweb.org/2023/09/17/evangelical-free-church-of-america-seeks-to-defrock-pastor-for-defying-lockdowns/
Canadians are starting to rise up against state-sponsored grooming of their children.
https://twitter.com/DreaHumphrey/status/1704623568037073199
British Columbia? That’s coastal, wouldn’t take too much fuel to send those groomers on a one way helicopter ride to the Pacific Ocean (hat tip to Pinochet).
Putting them in the wood chipper would require too much clean up.
Putting them in the wood chipper would require too much clean up.
Not a problem. They would make great pig feed. Just make sure they’re nude before they go into the chipper. Wouldn’t want the pigs to get indigestion from the clothing.
Dangerous dudes!
“So how bad could it get? Probably not too bad, because economists and real estate professionals saw it coming.”
On my smarter days, I just skip the quotes in the blog post and go straight to the comments, because the former aren’t good for my mental health or blood pressure.
‘The [housing] market where the premium to resale got too far out there’
If you want a cynical REIC nugget, check out how Jeff and the boys play with this ‘premium to resale’ to jack up prices.
‘Depending on the price point, the market has slowed way down…We’re in the middle of a transition from a seller’s market to a buyers market. We’ve been in the seller’s market since 2008, so it’s a long time coming for the shift to happen’
Gosh Doug, I hope no one overpaid in such an environment.
Cry me a river for the big corporate landlords who got stucco.
America’s Biggest Landlords Can’t Find Houses to Buy Either
Higher rates and few properties for sale have slowed Wall Street’s home buying
Home-rental firm AMH says returns are higher on houses that it builds specifically to lease than those it can buy on the open market.
Dustin Chambers for
Wall Street Journal
By Ryan Dezember
Updated Sept. 20, 2023 12:05 am ET
It isn’t just regular Americans who are having trouble buying houses these days.
…
‘The cost of insurance is affecting some of the closings because the borrower is maybe not able to qualify any longer’
That sounds like an unqualified buyer Jen.
‘The rate of distressed commercial debt was nearly 14 percent in Houston, more than 7 percent in New York, and approaching 6 percent in Los Angeles and nearby Riverside’
I never see the words inland empire anymore. It was once the center of the universe we were told.
“never see the words inland empire anymore”
You drive through there to get from Los Angeles to Joshua Tree National Park, I did in February 2016.
‘buyers who waited out the frenzied bidding contests of the past are careful not to overpay in today’s cooler environment, Ms. Miller says. ‘They say, ‘if this one doesn’t work out, there are 329 more we could look at’
That’s the spirit buyers, great job!
‘Homeowners still had high hopes heading into the spring, she says, but many have now seen several months of declining values. ‘People are just trying to meet the market where it is,’ she says. ‘They tried their summer price.’ The average number of days on the market is now approaching 50, she says, and the average price has dropped to about $790,000 from more than $1-million at the peak, she says. Houses in need of some refurbishment were changing hands at about $800,000 at the peak, she says. Now buyers can find a fixer-upper close to the $500,000 mark’
Ennio Morricone – L’estasi dell’Oro (In Concerto – Venezia 10.11.07)
SelfDistribuzione
Dec 20, 2011
Song taken from “The Good, the Bad, the Ugly”, performed in the magical setting of San Marco’s square in Venice and directed by Ennio Morricone himself.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J3IlqY1CbI0
4 minutes.
Sellers Could Be In Big Trouble In Vaughan, Richmond Hill & Markham Real Estate – Sept 13
Team Sessa Real Estate
53 minutes ago
Vaughan Home Prices, Richmond Hill Home Prices & Markham Home Prices for the week of Sept 7 – Sept 13, 2023.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=22vrLhwUqWs
12:33.
‘In many cases, investors were taking out a second or third mortgage on an existing property, she explains. Ms. Miller adds that some existing owners of short-term rentals have grown weary of the constant turnover. They are turning to the long-term rental market instead. Some sellers who have seen their property sit have also decided to offer the home for lease’
So these toilet scrubbers were taking out second or third mortgages on an existing property Miranda? That’s not speculative is it?
‘During Leaders’ Questions, the Dublin Central TD said she had spoken with a ‘stressed out’ father-of-two from Co Cork who said his mortgage repayments have increased from €800 to €1,200 per month. ‘I could feel the pressure in his voice when he told me that his family have now started to cut back on essentials to try and keep up with the massive hikes’
First of all Mary Lou, winnahs! don’t eat, even the little ones. Second, the stressed out father-of-two from Co Cork wasn’t paying some other bashtards mortgage!
‘Two years is a significant time period because we are two years on from the height of pandemic-related lockdowns, low interest rates, and have just passed the peak of transitions from low fixed rates to high variable rates’…There’s also a higher portion of new homebuyers selling up, with the number of homes sold within two years of purchase increasing by 1 per cent to 8.5 per cent over the past year. ‘This suggests more sellers are willing to incur a loss at the moment, which could in part be the result of high interest rates’
‘There’s also a higher portion of new homebuyers selling up, with the number of homes sold within two years of purchase increasing by 1 per cent to 8.5 per cent over the past year. ‘This suggests more sellers are willing to incur a loss at the moment’
via GIPHY
Nine Inch Nails — Happiness In Slavery:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mQ2-SkLfldk
Ministry — So What:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=onll-sLZHFU
It looks like the UK band Pop Will Eat Itself has scrubbed some of their content from YouTube, songs not available.
Pop Will Eat Itself — Familus Horribilus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RjIBTrGT3WY
Jane’s Addiction — Been Caught Stealing:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NQodZqKnxrg
This song is dedicated to the State of California, where stealing $950 or less of goods is effectively legal now.
Tommy James & The Shondells — Do Something To Me:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=76WDCm4O0MQ
At least our globalist commies wear it on their sleeves. Last I knew,
Sean Hannity featured Karl Rove and his white board quite often.
https://twitter.com/TuckerCarlson/status/1704665052031172641:
Ep. 25 Liberals like Karl Rove just tried to annihilate Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton. It didn’t work. Paxton just joined us for his first interview since his acquittal.
Overkill (Acoustic Version)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M3C5AxR7DWg
Sergio Mendes & Brasil ’66 – Mas Que Nada (1966)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Zu0iDvCjgk
Does it seem like quicksand is sucking the stock market a bit deeper into the CR8R by the day?
Why is it that nobody questions the dumb bovine strategy of buying stocks on the assumption that the stock market always goes up, while smart ursines who figure out how to make bank when the market slides into the CR8R get condemnation and castigation?
Exclusive: China scrutinises quant strategies as market weakness stokes public anger, sources say
Reuters
September 21, 2023 12:21 PM PDT
Updated 9 hours ago
A man wearing a protective mask is seen inside the Shanghai Stock Exchange building, as the country is hit by a new coronavirus outbreak, at the Pudong financial district in Shanghai, China Acquire Licensing Rights
SHANGHAI, Sept 21 (Reuters) – As China’s stock market struggles to recover, regulators have started to probe some hedge funds and brokerages on quantitative trading strategies amid a growing outcry against a sector able to profit from share price falls and volatility, sources said.
The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has checked with several major brokers over the past weeks about short-selling activities and trading strategies of their quant clients – funds that trade rapidly using derivatives and data-driven computer models, two people with direct knowledge of the probe said.
…
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-scrutinizes-quant-strategies-market-weakness-stokes-public-anger-sources-2023-09-21/
Stock Market Shocked by Fed Doing What Everyone Expected
Contributor
Martin Tillier
Published
Sep 21, 2023 10:25AM EDT
Men looking at stock quotes at Nasdaq MarketSite
Credit: Reuters / Gary Hershorn – stock.adobe.com
Yesterday, the stock market was shocked, shocked I tell you, when the Fed did what they have been telling us for the last month they were going to do: nothing. They left the Fed Funds rate target unchanged, but made it clear by way of their language and the dot plot, the forecasts of individual FOMC members’ forecasts for rates in the future, that this is a pause, not necessarily an end to hikes and certainly not a sign of a policy reversal coming soon to a central bank near you.
Somehow, though, “no change” and “as expected” were seen in this instance as a big shock, and since the announcement yesterday, S&P 500 E-Mini futures (ES) did this:
ES minis chart
This seemingly curious reaction is actually perfectly understandable. As I said it would be on Monday, when I previewed the Fed meeting and decision, it is at least as much a product of the market’s positioning and psyche going into the event as it was about the actual result. Traders had convinced themselves that the pause that everyone was expecting would be more than that and had positioned themselves accordingly. Thus, the “expected” outcome of the meeting prompted selling in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” pattern.
What matters going forward is not that technical reaction to the Fed’s decision and commentary, but rather whether it changes the overall mood of the market for an extended period of time. The evidence this morning suggests it will.
For starters, there has been some follow through from that initial drop on the Fed’s news. All three major indices are indicating a lower opening in this morning’s premarket trading as I write this, amid a growing recognition that Jay Powell and his fellow committee members are determined to guide the economy to a landing, even if it isn’t particularly soft. The Nasdaq, comprised primarily of growth-oriented companies, is more sensitive to high interest rates than the Dow, is being hit the hardest of the three, a sign that the extended drop is indeed all about rates. There has been, however, another reaction to news that suggests a more fundamental mood change.
…
https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/stock-market-shocked-by-fed-doing-what-everyone-expected
Are we now in a wage-price spiral, akin to the 1970s experience?
Finance · Interest Rates
Fed has low odds of achieving a soft landing because the economy is still too strong to entirely cool inflation, former central bank officials say
BY Rich Miller and Bloomberg
September 21, 2023 at 4:36 PM PDT
Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve.
Sarah Silbiger/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Two former Federal Reserve policymakers agreed the US central bank is unlikely to achieve a soft landing of the economy while disagreeing over what it should do next.
Speaking to an American Enterprise Institute webinar Thursday, ex-Fed Vice Chair Donald Kohn said the central bank probably needs to raise interest rates a little more, while former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh cautioned against doing so and said rates have likely reached a peak.
…
https://fortune.com/2023/09/21/fed-soft-landing-odds/
Finance ·economy
Top analyst Ed Yardeni raises the odds of recession to 25% citing oil prices rising to $94 and a potential repeat of 1970s-style stagflation
BY Will Daniel
September 19, 2023 at 2:11 PM PDT
New York Stock Exchange on Sept. 5, 2023.
Spencer Platt/Getty Images
Despite his peers sounding the alarm about the potential for a U.S. recession for over two years now, Ed Yardeni, founder and chief investment strategist at Yardeni Research, has remained steadfastly bullish. The veteran market watcher, who spent decades in various prestigious Wall Street positions and previously served as a Federal Reserve Bank economist, has long argued that the odds of a “hard landing” for the U.S. economy are relatively low due to fading inflation and a strong labor market.
But on Monday, Yardeni revealed that the rapid rise in oil prices this summer has raised the prospect of a 1970s-style era of persistent inflation and a recession.
…
https://fortune.com/2023/09/19/top-analyst-ed-yardeni-raises-recession-odds-great-inflation-1970s/
Surveillance: Powell & Co. Risk Wage-Price Spiral as Labor Fumes
Oil’s rally and bitter union fights highlight a fresh set of worries for world’s central banks
A contract offer from Stellantis NV with a 21% pay hike failed to move the United Auto Workers union, whose leaders are demanding much more.
Photographer: Neeta Satam/Bloomberg
By Lisa Abramowicz
September 18, 2023 at 6:59 AM PDT
Betting on a tight labor market
Many Surveillance guests are starting to bring up the concept of wage-price spirals again, and this is bad news for the Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan and the rest of their global peers.
…
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/newsletters/2023-09-18/fed-central-banks-risk-wage-price-spiral-on-surging-oil-restive-unions
Yahoo
Reuters
Fed hawkishness prompts HSBC to raise 10-year Treasury yield target
David Randall
Thu, September 21, 2023 at 10:23 AM PDT·1 min read
In this article:
An HSBC bank is pictured in New York
By David Randall
NEW YORK (Reuters) – The Federal Reserve’s expectations that the U.S. economy will continue to expand and necessitate additional interest rate hikes to combat inflation prompted HSBC to raise its year-end forecast for 10-year U.S. Treasury yields to 3.5% from 3%, strategists at the bank wrote in a note on Thursday.
“At a time when the Fed remains hawkish with the support of recent GDP data, there is pressure for short-dated bond yields to remain elevated, and this affects the whole curve,” wrote the firm’s analysts, led by Steven Major, the global head of fixed income.
The firm expects 10-year Treasury yields to end 2024 at 3%.
Benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury yields hit a 16-year high of 4.49% on Thursday, while interest-rate sensitive 2-year yields hit a 17-year high of 5.2%. Bond yields move in the opposite direction of prices.
The U.S. central bank left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday as markets had expected. But policymakers bolstered their hawkish stance with a further rate increase projected by the end of the year and monetary policy forecasts kept significantly tighter through 2024 than markets had anticipated.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-hawkishness-prompts-hsbc-raise-172304356.html
Yahoo
Yahoo Finance
Mortgage rates top 7% for the sixth straight week — but could go higher
Rebecca Chen
Thu, September 21, 2023 at 9:05 AM PDT·3 min read
Mortgage rates increased this week, remaining over 7% for the sixth consecutive week.
The 30-year average mortgage rate rose to 7.19% this week from 7.18% the week before, according to Freddie Mac. The increase comes after the Federal Reserve on Wednesday signaled its benchmark interest rate will remain higher for the near future.
Mortgage rates have played a major role in today’s unusual housing market. Many buyers have retreated due to high borrowing costs, while many homeowners refuse to sell their homes because they currently have a much lower rate.
…
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage-rates-top-7-for-the-sixth-straight-week–but-could-go-higher-160532771.html
Regulation and compliance
Rate ‘lock-in’ effect is hurting housing and mortgage markets, Powell says
By Kyle Campbell September 20, 2023, 6:10 p.m. EDT 4 Min Read
Despites structural constraints in the housing market, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell says the central bank anticipates “measured housing services inflation” to decline in the months ahead.Bloomberg
WASHINGTON — Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell acknowledged that the so-called “lock-in” effect has contributed to stagnation in the mortgage lending market and the nation’s broader housing woes, but he said he doesn’t regret the central bank’s monetary policy moves that played a major role in the problem.
By some estimates, more than 90% of homeowners have locked in mortgage rates below 6%, with many paying less than 4% on loans made while the Fed held interest rates near zero. The disparity between those rates and current market rates, currently north of 7%, is discouraging some homeowners from selling their properties out of a fear of taking on a more expensive mortgage to purchase their next home.
…
https://www.americanbanker.com/news/rate-lock-in-effect-is-hurting-housing-and-mortgage-markets-powell-says
Oil prices rise as supply concerns outweigh demand fears
By Emily Chow
September 21, 2023 11:35 PM PDT Updated 2 hours ago
SINGAPORE, Sept 22 (Reuters) – Oil prices rose on Friday as concerns that a Russian ban on fuel exports could tighten global supply outweighed fears that further U.S. interest rate hikes could dent demand, but they were still headed for their first weekly loss in four weeks.
Brent futures climbed 46 cents, or 0.5%, to $93.76 a barrel by 0630 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude (WTI) futures gained 65 cents, or 0.7%, to $90.28 a barrel.
…
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/oil-prices-rise-supply-concerns-outweigh-demand-fears-2023-09-22/
RNC Research
@RNCResearch
Biden (heavily mumbling): “Mega Republicans in Congress and my predecessor spent four years gutting the immigration system under my predecessor and continue to undermine our border security today”
https://x.com/RNCResearch/status/1705018900771954805?s=20