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There Was Another Sign The Market Is Shifting: Seller Discounts

A report from the Real Deal. “Three years later, Tom Barrack has buyer’s remorse. As his firm, Colony Capital, embarks on a $325 million venture into digital infrastructure, it first needs to offload much of its real estate portfolio from its disastrous merger with NorthStar Realty Finance Corp. Share value of the Los Angeles-based Colony still hasn’t fully recovered from that 2016 deal. Barrack and other Colony execs have acknowledged they misstepped when they closed the $19.9 billion all-stock transaction for NorthStar, according to the Wall Street Journal.”

“‘It’s on me,’ said Barrack, the firm’s CEO, the Journal reported. He accepts responsibility for the merger, which he said was mispriced and ‘shouldn’t have happened.’ Colony officials said they want to sell as much as 90 percent of its $20 billion portfolio of traditional real estate assets — senior living facilities, hotels, warehouses, and others.”

From Real Estate Weekly. “The New York market started softening in 2016 so we are three years into the real estate market correction,’ said Michael J. Franco of Compass. Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats, added that even without a recession, the market has already been dealing with its own downturn.”

“‘It’s not like people are going to wake up all of a sudden,’ he said. ‘The sales market has felt a lot of this pain to begin with. Great homes still sell. Generic properties are having difficulty and the high-end places are seeing price reductions. I can tell you what I hear from the marketplace; it has been having its struggles.'”

The Star Tribune in Minnesota. “The housing market in the Twin Cities metro last month was a little less intense than the year before. Houses didn’t sell as quickly and sellers were more likely to offer a discount. ‘Most markets remain stable across the metro,’ said Linda Rogers, president-elect of Minneapolis Area Realtors (MAR). ‘While there is a good amount of local variation, we just don’t see that many signs for concern.'”

“The seasonal slowdown is a little more pronounced this year. On average, houses sold in 41 days, one day slower than last August. Though houses are selling faster, that was the fourth annual monthly increase so far this year. There was another sign the market is shifting: seller discounts. For seven of the past eight months seller discounts have been on the rise. Still, the median price of all sales during the month increased 7% to $286,800.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “In the local real estate market, there is some concern about oversupply in specific sectors. ‘There’s fear of potential oversupply if there is an economic downturn given the number of apartments under construction,’ said PwC’s Byron Carlock.”

“Carlock said he’s still optimistic about 2020’s prospects for the property sector. ‘I don’t think the next downturn will be real estate’s fault,’ he said. ‘The capital markets are still robust. There is still demand,’ Carlock said. ‘There are only pockets of oversupply.'”

The Salt Lake Tribune in Utah. ” Utah’s capital city had slightly more than 12,000 apartments in 2000, a number that grew to nearly 20,554 units by last year, according to research presented to the City Council. And builders have been on something of an apartment-construction tear since 2013, with 91% of the city’s total residential building permits issued for apartments between 2013 and 2017.”

“‘It’s been an absolute explosion,’ said DJ Benway, economist research analyst at Gardner Institute. ‘I don’t want to call it a boom, because that implies a bust.'”

“‘You’re not seeing any rents going down anywhere,’ said Dejan Eskic, senior research analyst at the Gardner Institute. ‘The market is severely overpriced, but it’s also severely undersupplied.'”

From Socket Site. “A block and a half from Dolores Park, the ‘one-of-a-kind home’ at 352 Cumberland Street, which totals around 2,800 square feet (including two vacant studio units which front the street), was purchased for $3.75 million in September of 2014. Withdrawn from the MLS in March without a reported sale, 352 Cumberland was just listed anew with an official ‘1’ day on the market and a further reduced list price of $2.995 million, a sale at which would now be considered to be ‘at asking,’ but would represent an actual 20.1 percent drop in value for the luxury home, according to all MLS-based stats.”

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This Post Has 171 Comments

  1. ‘Barrack and other Colony execs have acknowledged they misstepped when they closed the $19.9 billion all-stock transaction for NorthStar’

    I read the WSJ article the other day, but the RD title mentions getting rid of distressed properties. Pretty optimistic back in 2016.

  2. “‘You’re not seeing any rents going down anywhere,’ said Dejan Eskic, senior research analyst at the Gardner Institute. ‘The market is severely overpriced, but it’s also severely undersupplied.’”

    One of these things is not like the other.

    1. What’s wrong with a bank paying more for a short-term loan? Joe Sixpack does that at the “payday” loan outlets.

  6. I do not know you might get a US broker to tell a Chinese buyer rents and housing prices will drop in Hong Kong, might be a good sales pitch to sell a San Diego home. Seriously, I get your point it is interesting that the paper was willing to admit it, if HK goes down China will not be far behind. However, the US news is that initial jobless claims are down from even their previous week low levels. A recession prior to the election continues
    To get less likely. Probably why more liberals are upset that RBG did not retire from the Supreme Court under Obama. I found it interesting that Google had a story about that today. It shows what the MSM really thinks about Trump’s re-election chances.

    1. Sorry not down from last week’s levels but rose less than expected meaning the running four week average is down.

    1. How soon will the Fed be forced to announce QE4 to prop up its Ponzi markets and Wall Street’s insatiable demands for free gambling money?

      You expect them to announce it?

    1. From the article:

      “This week marked the first time the central bank has taken such steps since the global financial crisis 10 years ago.”

      Nothing to see here, folks. Buy more stawks. Buy more used houses.

      1. Well based on the stock market being less than one percent below it’s all time highs and existing home sales being at a 17 month high 401 that appears to be exactly what they are doing.

      2. I tried to find out the underlying reason but no financial source (WSJ, CNBC etc) would be specific.

        Why did banks need to cash in short term instruments? why did the rate hit 10% before the fed injected liquidity

        1. The bank’s collateral for short term loans is usually sovereign debt, i.e., treasuries. But previously purchased treasuries should increase in value as new issues have lower yields? Like UFOs, we’re told it’s complicated. Hence no specifics.

        1. “I tried to find out the underlying rea$on … ”

          As eye recall, in the Titanic … vs … Thee ice.cube … it was a glancing $crape $omewhere just below the waterline, in darkne$$.

          Un.$inkable!!! … fa$ter!, fa$ter!, fa$ter!

          TBT$ = To.Big.to.$ink!

          (Eye’ll bee @ Thee bar, the flyer says: free popcorn!)

        2. Isn’t it amazing how strong the temptation to buy stocks and houses becomes as a peak approaches? Interest rates are in the toilet, so obviously risk assets like stocks and houses are the only reasonable investment alternatives, even though the only way forward from here is obviously down.

      5. I got schooled by some San Diego amigos a couple of nights ago about what a fool I am for not owning a home or even considering a home purchase at this point in time. San Diego real estate always goes up, you know!

    1. Year around warm weather, generous social programs, and unaffordable housing prices combine to make the Golden State the ideal location for unsheltered living.

  11. Boots in Boise. Great walkable neighborhood near downtown, excellent schools. Listed as a 1600sqft 3/2, in reality is it a 2/2 with a finished basement that could be used as bedroom if needed. Built in 1940. Priced at $500k. Went on market Friday, had full cash offer after first showing on Saturday.

    Good times.

    1. Just wait until the 80 year old sewer lines back up and spill raw sewage into the finished basement. No bad days, as they say.

      1. I only see five Boise listings in that price range with 2-3 bedrooms that are more than 30 years old.None of them are pending and none was built in 1940. Link if you have it. Would be interesting for us to see what’s flying off the shelf in Boise.

          1. Boise and Meridian are at different price points (at least in the specific areas I am considering). Sales volume is down, prices are up. Certain neighborhoods are also more competitive than others, huge price differences.

          2. Sales volume down and prices (slightly) up has always been the harbinger of a market top. Keep pretending it’s not if that helps you sleep at night.

          1. Very suspect. An undisclosed sale in 2016, in the write up
            the speculator dumped $280k in it in “improvements”, back for sale in 2019 and now pulled off the market again.

            Sketchy and multiple defective appraisals for certain.

          2. That’s an interesting one. Sold 4 times in the last five years. Gone from 314k to 500k in five years. Thanks for the link.

    4. You’ve got to at least include an mls#. Further, Idaho does not disclose sales prices so there’s no way to no what the offer is and what the sold price will be. Lastly, can you imagine being the sucker buying a $500k house in Boise of all places? A fool and his (borrowed) money are soon parted.

      1. Well, lets just say I know the specifics of this sale. But yes, you are generally correct in that ID is a non-disclosure state. Lots of this money is not borrowed, it is cash coming in from CA, OR, and WA. I know first-hand, of many all cash sales in this market – it is nuts, but it is happening.

    5. That’s a cute house, but the 1600 sq ft must include the basement. The price is in the land, close to downtown. I admit it’s a tasteful reno. But I’ve noticed that these renos will put in granite countertops but NOT take out old wooden paneling or wallpaper. That’s very labor intensive. And what’s with the clear plastic chairs? It seems to be a staple of stagers.

    6. “Boots in Boise.”

      Boise has no real economy…just money in circulation. Farming is their productive output, but that is being squeezed-out by housing and coastal progressive transplants complaining about fertilizers and pesticides in the dust.

      1. Boise has no real economy…

        Micron is productive. But I can’t see how they’re big enough to support the whole city.

      2. In rough order, the Boise economy consists of: medical care, federal, state and local government, education and construction. High value added agriculture, mining, manufacturing and technology are relatively small. Micron is a shell of its former self in Boise and jobs there are gradually moving out of state or overseas. The bubble is based on funny money Yellen bucks.

        1. Seems like Boise is similar to St. George in the sense that it is where people relocate to once they’ve made their money. The local economy is strongly dependent on influx of money.

    1. They can say or lie as much as they want. I’m seeing more and more ads for open house and for sale on Facebook and every websites I visited. I’m even getting more spam emails from realtors I don’t even know… As the same time, these low interest are going up BUT they are creating a fourth boom in building. In my area of Milpitas, there are already so my constructions and a block from my place, they just starting to build more “luxury” buildings… I should just drive around the area and take videos

      2. As for all the building in your area, I agree. Is that framed up complex off of mission and 280/680 still halted with no cover from rain or the elements? Has to be really good leaving all that wood exposed for the last year if so!

        1. These “new” constructions wont last long. I give it a decade or so before they start to deteriorate and break down.

      2. “Dover is nowhere near Boise”

        It’s in the boondocks, at the northern tip if the panhandle. A remote town of 600 people.

      1. Go to the thread on Zerohedge and look for the poster named Your Good Friend. Look familiar? AKA Fat Bastard (something like that). Also spotted on Marketwatch.

        That said, I had to look up what a repo rate was. I honestly thought it was auto repossession.

  15. “The New York market started softening in 2016 so we are three years into the real estate market correction,’ said Michael J. Franco of Compass. Gary Malin, president of Citi Habitats, added that even without a recession, the market has already been dealing with its own downturn.”

    First honest reporting in the MSM for a while. There are too many news articles caught surprised by the housing bust in Manhattan. Some blame the tax reform of 2017, trade wars, Trump, and/or the recently new liberal rent control laws signed by Cuomo….

    Had they been reading HBB, they knew this happened starting as early as end of 2015 and was completed based on the stupid ideas of “safety deposit box in the sky”. This is when foreign speculators bid up housing prices to the moon and they build a zillions units for those purpose. Then the bubble burst and 3 years into it, it’s getting “worser”…

  16. From the Salt Lake Tribune article:

    “Vacancy rates, in fact, remain near all-time lows, within city limits and all across the Wasatch Front’s most populous counties.”

    “There are many factors driving the surge. Housing demand remains high, particularly around job centers and mass transit corridors, as in-migration and the state’s own birth rate keep Utah on pace to add as many as two million new residents by 2050.”

    For those that don’t know Utah’s economy, it is absolutely booming. Lots of tech companies relocating to “Silicon Slopes” and there are lots of organic new start-ups because of how many universities there are (U of U, BYU, Utah Valley U, Weber State, Utah State). The main counties of growth are Salt Lake County and Utah County. Down where I live the main counties of growth are Washington County (fastest growing county in the US) and Iron County.

    The offer on the apartment complex I manage and have ownership stake in is going back and forth. The Tribune article rightly pointed to the “opportunity zones” which explains why so much development money is coming in here. I will share details once the sale closes.

      1. Most of those start-ups have no actual sales revenue from real customers.

        I worked at a few of those in the earlier days in my career. Most of them fold when it becomes obvious to investors that the startup is going nowhere. Eventually you get tired of trying to guess when to jump ship before it goes under.

        But yeah, they are fun at the beginning. You get to write all new code (no grokking zillions of lines of poorly written and undocumented old code) and there are all the fun perks: beer busts, cookouts, offsite events, etc. But eventually having to change jobs every 12-24 months gets old.

        1. But eventually having to change jobs every 12-24 months gets old.

          My sister works at one of those that I think might not make it if we go into a recession. But I think there are many other solid companies like Qualtrics which just got purchased by SAP. Then there is Adobe with bought Omniture some time back. You Microsoft, Oracle, and lots of other big tech companies putting up offices in the area. You also have things like Workfront, BambooHR, Vivint, Podium, Weave, Entrata, etc. I think PluralSight and Ancestry are going to go public soon.

    1. “…Seems kind of like a big deal…”

      Actually, It *is* a very big deal.

      Of course, the MSM hasn’t mentioned it, to the best of my knowledge.

      Setting all the technology aside for a moment, from a financial point of view Daimler now has extra free cash to invest in electric R&D.

      It also means that competitors (ie. FORD, GM) are still budgeting R&D cash for what most certainly is an obsolete technology. (Sometimes the term “mature technology” is used in more polite circles)

      IMO, when just one other large automaker follows Daimler’s lead, its game over.

      Now when thousands of newly laid off IC engine builder workers recover from what has hit them, you can bet your bippy that the REIC will spin as “A once in a lifetime opportunity to purchase retiring worker homesteads”

      1. There are not enough raw materials available for large scale shift to EVs and any significant increase in demand will drive up prices on those raw materials to the point where manufacturing is even less economically viable than it is now. Without direct government subsidies and mandates, the EV industry would not exist.

        2. Without direct government subsidies and mandates

          Germany is set to roll those out in a big way. Kind of ironic after how expensive they’ve made their electricity through enormously wasteful “renewable” schemes.

          1. It will all be worth it when we achieve clean energy utopia. If a few people have to make the choice between food and heating their house along the way, it’s a small price to pay for what will surely be a much better world.

          2. Electric cars in Europe will initially be exempt from VAT (sales tax) which can be as high as 27%. They will get other incentives: free parking, use of carpool and bus lanes, etc.

            Of course as the adoption grows and ICE cars are phased out, those incentives will also be phased out. So at that point an “entry level” car will cost at least 40K Euros.

          3. The end result of course being that nobody goes anywhere with a private vehicle without having to connect to “the grid” every 24-48 hours. And if there is ever an outage or attack on the power grid guess what? You’re not going anywhere.

          4. And if there is ever an outage or attack on the power grid guess what? You’re not going anywhere.

            Iran attacked Saudia Arabia and oil spiked and gas will follow. Geopolitical risk is much higher with gas/oil than electricity prices which are far less volatile.

            My model 3 has 67% state of charge now. At about 30 miles per day, can drive for about 1 week without the need to plug in. Literally anywhere there is a plug I can refill. Or I could just install solar and a battery and go off the grid.

          5. can drive for about 1 week without the need to plug in

            Where would you go if the grid was down?

            I wouldn’t have to go anywhere much. BTW, if the grid is down you’re not getting gasoline either. I could live where I am permanently with the grid down, as long as I don’t get hit over the head.

        3. For the next stage of growth in EVs governments will have to start subsidizing the mining as well as the manufacture and sales of the vehicles. The numbers just don’t work.

          You better tell Daimler they made a big mistake!

          2. tell Daimler they made a big mistake!

            Daimler isn’t going to stop making excellent ICE vehicles, they’re just going for a subsidy grab and some great PC press. The era of government funding for illogical, uneconomical and inefficient sugar plums will taper off when/if the greatest expansion of credit in history goes south. Without cheap and easy credit, people will need to use less energy, not more and more.

          3. Daimler isn’t going to stop making excellent ICE vehicles,

            Not right away, but eventually they will when people stop buying them.

    2. They are basically saying that gas cars are done.

      I am so looking forward to standing around waiting 40+ minutes for a partial “rapid charge” that will only recharge the batteries 70-80%. That is going to make road trips so much fun.

      But yeah, electric cars (AKA coal powered cars) are going to be shoved down our throats.

      1. You must be talking about summer. Try a road trip in one of those things in the winter through the Rockies. Your 70% charge is going to turn into the equivalent of a 40-50% charge.

        1. Absolutely. The 300 mile range will drop to 150 miles at best. Drive 2 hours, then stop for 40+ minutes to recharge, and that’s assuming there isn’t a line at the recharge station.

      2. I am so looking forward to standing around waiting 40+ minutes for a partial “rapid charge” that will only recharge the batteries 70-80%.

        Tesla new chargers charge from 0% to 80% in 9 minutes. Besides, 90% of charging is done when you are asleep at your house.

        1. Besides, 90% of charging is done when you are asleep at your house.

          If you live in a house. Most Euros live in flats. They will have to take the car to a charging station.

          1. Well, we live in a 1st floor condo and we charge outside with an extension cord. Granted, our apartment is right in front of our charging station, but our neighbors’ parents came and visited from California last winter and they had a Hyundai plug-in hybrid. They did the same thing and just plugged in with an extension cord. This was before I purchased my Tesla. I asked this couple a lot about their plug-in hybrid and they said they use electric about 90% of the time. The only time they use gas is for road trips from CA to UT.

          1. They had a plug-in hybrid, which is a good use case for many people. 90% of time the car runs on electric since most daily mileage is < 50, but has a gas motor for long traveling.

            So you have to look at % of miles charged. That is why the Tesla Supercharging network is a huge competitive advantage right now because it is so easy and fast to refill. But other charging networks are coming too. It just so happens that Tesla owns about 80% of the EV market right now. I'm sure that will change with VW's initiatives.

      1. Diesel cars are still very popular in Europe. The new Diesel engines are very efficient. I believe they would continue to be very popular if the governments were not coercing people through financial penalties to switch to EVs.

        1. Many European metro areas have already banned diesel cars and SUV’s. The will soon ban all ICE engines in their cities.

          1. The will soon ban all ICE engines in their cities.

            If there is one thing that city people are really good at it’s using their voting power to force someone else to deal with the consequences of their problems.

          3. The craziness of it all….Tesla charging stations using diesel generators

            That is a other question no one seems to want to discuss: how will all this electricity be generated?

          4. They don’t want us to switch to EVs. They want to ban ICE cars altogether and force people into not having cars at all. Instead, we’ll all be taking self-driving cabs which just travel around all day picking people up. That might work in downtown areas, but good luck doing that in suburbs. Out in the country? Forget it. We’ll be going back to horses.

          5. They don’t want us to switch to EVs. They want to ban ICE cars altogether and force people into not having cars at all.

            The high cost of electric cars will make car ownership the sole province of the well to do. Given the limited lifespan of batteries and their high replacement cost means that there won’t be old, inexpensive beaters the lower classes can drive.

            The 20 year old Corolla or Civic that keeps on running will be a thing of the past. The $40K entry level car will be worthless around the 10 year point as it will need a new battery pack. There won’t be under $5K cars anymore.

          6. The high cost of electric cars will make car ownership the sole province of the well to do.

            There, fixed it for you.

            https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/average-new-car-prices-up-2-year-over-year-for-august-2019-according-to-kelley-blue-book-300911193.html

            “IRVINE, Calif., Sept. 4, 2019 /PRNewswire/ — The valuation analysts at Kelley Blue Book today reported the estimated average transaction price for a light vehicle in the United States was $37,401 in August 2019. New-vehicle prices increased $723 (up 2%) from August 2018, while decreasing $54 (down 0.1%) from last month.”

          7. That is a other question no one seems to want to discuss: how will all this electricity be generated?

            Probably not with coal. Commercial solar with batteries storage is my guess. 70% of new electricity coming online is from renewables, either wind or solar.

          8. There won’t be under $5K cars anymore.

            I’m skeptical of that. I can totally see there being beater electrics with worn out batteries that can still be used around town. And cheap sketchy replacement batteries that everybody knows aren’t as good as the original but are enough to get around town.

          9. cheap sketchy replacement batteries that everybody knows aren’t as good as the original but are enough to get around town.

            One of my coworkers turned an old beater into a short range EV with lead-acid batteries. It was enough to get him to work, and the company was PC enough to give him a free charging station.

        2. The new Diesel engines are very efficient. I believe they would continue to be very popular if the governments were not coercing people through financial penalties to switch to EVs.

          Yeah, what’s with all these people wanting clean air and everything, shesh!

          2. You obviously know zero about the new diesel emissions. You can breathe the tailpipe and not even smell it.

          3. Seriously they are extremely clean with low particulate output. Euro diesel is more refined than the us diesel as well.

        3. the company was PC enough to give him a free charging station.

          Hahah…hat tip for working the system like a boss.

  18. In a new interview, Jonathan and Drew Scott — co-hosts of the HGTV series “Property Brothers” — explain where buyers should invest in real estate, and why Las Vegas and Nashville are at the top of their list.

    according to inventory increase

    no tengo

  20. Amazon just announced it will order 100k electric delivery vans from Rivian. That is huge and will likely completely upend the fleet system nationwide. The deal is worth billions.

    The shift that GM is making to fully EV will not be good for auto workers, but will be good for consumers:

    The Shift to Electric Vehicles Propels a Strike Against GM

    “That change comes with a worrisome footnote for auto workers around the world. Last year, a study by Germany’s Fraunhofer Institute for Industrial Engineering IAO found that by 2030, a moderate shift to electric propulsion could leave 75,000 Germans out of work—even accounting for the creation of 25,000 new jobs. That’s because batteries and motors are far simpler machines than internal combustion engines, and require a few hundred parts instead of a few thousand. That’s the same reason maintenance costs for EVs are so low—a problem for dealerships that rely on servicing cars for profits. Fewer parts mean fewer people.”

    Andrew Yang is right when he talks about what automation and AI will do to retail jobs, call center jobs, fast food jobs, truck driving jobs, and so on. The US better get good at training solar installers and nurse aides/home health aides because those are the two fastest growing job categories. Unfortunately, they also pay very little.

    2. According to Mr. Yang we should embrace the race to the bottom of 3rd world status? Guess we should all develop a taste for insects and Beyond Meat.

        1. Most people don’t produce much going to work other than their own carbon footprint. They’d be better off staying at home. A few iterations, and it’s the matrix egg. 🙂

    3. That’s the same reason maintenance costs for EVs are so low

      Just wait until the electronics on those cars begin to mysteriously malfunction and replacing the computer modules (which will be costly) doesn’t solve the problems.

      1. The current list price of a Chevrolet Bolt EV HV battery pack is $15,734.29 and the part number is 24285978.

        2019 Ford Fiesta S Sedan | base Price: $15,135
        019 Mitsubishi Mirage ES | base Price: $14,690
        2019 Chevrolet Spark LS | base Price: $14,095
        2019 Chevrolet Spark LS | base Price: $14,095
        2019 Kia Rio base price $15, 744

        You can buy an entirely new vehicle for just the cost of the battery pack which you are putting into a used car. And that is a battery made largely from metals mined in places with the equivalent of slave labor with no environmental regulations. To make it even cheaper, they are moving rare earth mines into North Korea where they are operated by literal slave labor and political prisoners. Even under these circumstances an EV battery costs as much as an entire brand new conventional vehicle.

        1. Anyway this is the last time I’m going to get sidetracked into commenting on this topic. For those who like EVs enjoy your vehicles. I hope they serve you well and last for years and save you money Too bad they seem to come with a covenant that you can’t feel the same about the rest of us.

        2. My Tesla has an 8 year warranty on the battery. If something goes wrong before then, it gets replaced. It’s been 7 months so far and things are good. I’ll let you know in 8 more years.

          1. Your Tesla has significantly worse environmental impact than if you had just bought used conventional vehicle that needed a few repairs and kept it running. I hope you like your car and I hope it serves you well. But your environmental superciliousness is misguided and insufferable. Cheers.

          2. “It gets replaced”

            That battery isn’t free. You’re paying for it in the cost of your vehicle, and I’m probably paying for it with the tax credits.
            And those batteries are still mined by slave labor and political prisoners no matter who pays for it.

          4. I was just behind a Tesla today, and his license plate was, I kid you not, “ZRO CO2.” With such hubris on full display, I’m not surprised when young kids in diesel trucks smoke out people like that.

          5. That battery isn’t free. You’re paying for it in the cost of your vehicle, and I’m probably paying for it with the tax credits.

            Well, the last part is true, but the first part isn’t. Tesla is a debt scheme. They owe lenders $50K for every car they’ve ever built, can’t pay their loans off without borrowing the money, because they’re still racking up huge losses. Tick, tock. Good luck with warranties.

      3. He’ll be forgiven.

        Most of these people are British at heart still. The makeup thing isn’t a big deal. Their current thing is sensitivity to the “First Nations”.

        1. Most of these people are British at heart still.

          Our left seems to be getting more British all the time too. Once they reject the majority of the Constitution/Bill of Rights is the Declaration of Independence next?

    2. IIRC wasn’t he a drama teacher or an actor? Opera singers have been dressing up as Othello for .. well, centuries I guess. So what if Trudeau was just acting a role? Where does the acting stop and the racis begin? This is a sincere question; I really don’t know.

  25. Behold your future housing demand:

    Are childless millennials harming the US economy?
    By Brittany De Lea
    Published September 05, 2019
    Economic Indicators
    FOXBusiness

    Growing number of parents giving financial support to millennials plagued with debt

    Barron’s Senior Editor Jack Hough on parents giving financial support to their millennial children who are facing mounting college debt.

    Millennials appear to be either waiting to have children – when deciding whether to have them at all – which could end up having serious consequences on the U.S. economy.

    According to a recent Wall Street Journal/NBC News survey, slightly more than 20 percent of young Americans – between the ages of 18 and 38 – said having children was very important to them. That compares with nearly 45 percent of Generation X and more than 65 percent of Baby Boomers and individuals belonging to the Silent Generation.
    …

    1. The U.S. birth rate fell to its lowest level in more than three decades last year, according to data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention. Birth rates declined for nearly all women under the age of 35, but rose for women in their late 30s and early 40s – reflecting a decision among some to wait longer before having children. Americans are now having fewer children than required to replace the population.

      For a generation that has grown up in the shadow of the financial crisis, weighed down by student debt, costs can factor in. According to Fidelity Investments, it would cost a middle-income family about $233,610 to raise a baby born in 2015 from birth through the age of 17 – and about $372,210 for a family in the highest income bracket. Those figures obviously do not include the mounting costs of higher education.

      “Financial pressures,” are one factor driving trends in U.S. birth rates, Chelsea Follett, managing editor of HumanProgress.org at the Cato Institute, told FOX Business.

    2. The direction of causality is reversed. Childless millennials are the result of high house prices. Younger generations can’t afford to have kids because wages are paltry, housing costs are high, and student loan debt is crushing.

      1. “Childless millennials are the result of high house prices.”

        That plus low-wage jobs, unaffordable college tuition, and massive consumer and automotive loan balances.

        1. Exactly. But it’s probably avocado toast and Starbucks that did them in according to those sagacious boomers whose got wealthy from the housing bubble.

        2. I know several kids from poor countries who come here to study and it’s free (somebody pays for it but not the kid or their family). Actually they get paid some type of expense money, while getting their MBA. So, college is free and the money they get is used for housing and other expenses. They get something like $1200 per month.

          I have to be honest, I don’t know the details, how that works, all I know is that I met several of them.

          Only American kids have to pay, apparently. Are we subsidizing the rest of the world?

      2. “Childless millennials are the result of high house prices.”

        The young ladies will hook-up with an older gen-x or gen-y who is established. When that nesting urge kicks-in there is little in nature capable of stopping babies from happening.

      3. Yes. Housing costs are high making a one income household budget very tight.

        Why have kids if you can live very comfortably on two incomes?

    3. more than 65 percent of Baby Boomers

      I gotta tell you, having more children is totally not on my agenda. I’ve paid my debt to society.

  26. Speaking of seller discounts here in Laguna Niguel, Orange County California more than half current listings have some sought of price reduction according to realtor online site. In fact 5 of the 9 pages of homes for sale are all discounted listings. If borrowing rates go back over 4% look out below!

    1. They assume that the part of the oath to obey the commander in chief (and ignoring the ambiguity about “lawful orders”) will trump (heh heh) the part about supporting and defending the Constitution once they can get a CIC they like.

    1. Everyone wants to live in Encinitas.

      I remember when Encinitas and Leucadia were places where hippies and surfers lived.

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Global Insight
      Trump is serious about US divorce from China
      The rest of the world will be pressured to make a choice between Washington and Beijing
      Edward Luce
      Everybody loses if globalisation goes into reverse
      © EPA-EFE
      Edward Luce
      16 hours ago

      The phrase “new cold war” should never have been coined. Nothing in the original stand off between the Soviet Union and the US could prepare the global economy for what Donald Trump is demanding of America’s trading partners. Moscow and Washington existed in separate orbits. Now the rest of the world is being asked to make a choice between China and the US, two intimately entwined economies. Nor does the label “trade war” begin to capture the dimensions of what this implies.

      America’s partners are being pressured to eject Huawei, China’s leading telecoms equipment supplier, from their 5G networks. But Mr Trump’s all-or-nothing ultimatum is by no means confined to Huawei. Almost every Chinese product is now under suspicion of concealing the “Manchurian chip” — backdoor technology that can lie dormant until it is activated.

      Israel, for example, is being asked to dump a Chinese construction company that is deepening the port of Haifa. It is also under pressure to cut ties with another Chinese contractor that is building a metro in Tel Aviv.
      …

    1. Bond investor says negative yields are ‘most absurd thing central banks have done’
      By Sunny Oh
      Published: Sept 19, 2019 5:08 p.m. ET
      Bruce Richards, Marathon Asset Management chairman and chief executive.

      Marathon Asset Management CEO Bruce Richards said government bond yields trading at negative levels “is the most absurd thing central banks have done and it will blow up in their face,” at the CNBC Institutional Investor Delivering Alpha conference on Thursday.

      Ultra-loose monetary policy by major central banks including, the Bank of Japan and the European Central Bank, have contributed to the phenomenon of government bond rates falling below subzero levels.

      The 10-year German government bond (TMBMKDE-10Y, +0.69%) finished at negative-0.50% on Thursday.

      Richards said investors may be tempted to reap as much gains as they can from this year’s relentless rally in government bonds, but said it was a “fool’s game.”

      The 10-year Treasury note yield (TMUBMUSD10Y, -0.58%) is trading at 1.79%, more than 80 basis points lower than at the start of the year. Bond prices move in the opposite direction of yields.
      …

      1. bond yields trading at negative levels “is the most absurd thing central banks have done and it will blow up in their face

        That seems contradictory. Negative yields does not mean negative interest rate, if I get this correctly. It just means people are buying and selling bonds back and forth at a price higher than justified by the interest rate. Maybe they are compelled to hold bonds or maybe they expect deflation. How is that a “mistake” being made by the central bank?

  33. “How much energy should you use worrying about stuff you have no ability to change?” an economist for an institutional property investor said in the report.

    Lol!

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