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This Market Is A Bloodbath For Some

A report from CNBC on New York. “Prices for Manhattan real estate took their biggest plunge since the 2008 financial crisis, according to a new report. Brokers and real estate analysts say there is little sign of a bottom after nearly two years of declines. ‘There is a lot of uncertainty in the air,’ said Jonathan Miller, CEO of Miller Samuel. ‘It’s going to be a slow grind over the next year or two.'”

From Fox Business on New York. “More than 25 percent of new condos that have been built in New York City since 2013 remain unsold. In terms of units – of the 16,242 condos built since 2013, about 12,133 have sold. That means more than 4,100 have not. ‘The third quarter of 2019 was undoubtedly the most challenging quarter in recent memory, especially for condo sales,’ said Garrett Derderian, managing director of market analysis at CORE. ‘Market prices have gone from what was once described as the kindest, gentlest correction to a near free fall. The last time conditions were described in such a way was in the height of the recession.'”

The New York Times. “‘This market is a bloodbath for some,’ said Frances Katzen, an agent with Douglas Elliman, who said that buyers who bought at peak prices a few years ago are unwilling to lower their prices further, because they would lose money on the deal. But with a glut of new inventory clogging the market, she said more clients are coming around.”

“‘It’s a horrible market to be a seller,’ she said. ‘It’s absolutely fantastic to be a buyer.'”

The San Mateo Daily Journal in California. A San Mateo County Association of Realtors report showed the median sales price hitting $1.54 million. The local market’s annual peak was reached in May, when median home sales prices rose to $1.76 million — nearly equaling the $1.8 median sales prices struck in April 2018, which is the most expensive ever recorded in the county.”

The Epoch Times on California. “While there has been much talk among investors about the recent cooling trend—especially in high-end markets such as the San Francisco Bay Area—fears of a housing market collapse akin to a decade ago are unwarranted, said C.A.R. Senior Economist and Director of Research Oscar Wei.”

“The economy remains strong, with some softening in the housing market, but there is no reason for investors or home buyers to panic, he said. So, is the real estate boom really over? ‘I think from an investor’s perspective, it’s true,’ Wei said. ‘The housing market is not growing as fast as it has in the previous two years … It is a fallback in terms of price. It’s an adjustment. That is definitely happening.'”

“Meanwhile, Orange County and San Diego might see a softening in home prices, but not as much as the San Francisco Bay Area, Wei said. ‘In the first half of 2019, we continued to see some lackluster performance of the housing market, particularly sales demand,’ Wei said. ‘In every single month since the beginning of the year, we had seen a decline compared to the previous year.'”

From Chicago Now on Illinois. “A couple of weeks ago ATTOM Data Solutions updated their foreclosure data. Unfortunately, one really important metric has not seen an improvement since November of last year. That’s the total number of homes that are in some stage of foreclosure or shadow inventory. You would think that declining activity would also be reflected in a decline in that number and, for most of the time that I’ve been tracking this, that has been true. But since November there has actually been an increase in shadow inventory to the tune of 391 units. This appears to be the longest stretch without some material decline in inventory. Hell if I know why.”

The Tampa Bay Times in Florida. “Despite a new-home building boom, the percentage of homeowner-occupied dwellings in Pasco County is smaller now than it was 10 years ago. In 2008, nearly 54 percent of the county’s 246,000 residences were owner-occupied, according to the Pasco County Property Appraiser’s Office. Eleven years later, that percentage stands at less than 47 percent, even though the number of homes has grown by nearly 45,000 units.”

“The result — part of the lingering effects of the real estate crash and Great Recession of the past decade — is an influx of former homesteads turning into investor-owned rental homes or simply vacant properties that can attract illegal activity.”

“Now, to aid law- and code-enforcement officers, the county is poised to require those property owners to register their sites with the Pasco County Sheriff’s Office under a proposed ‘at-risk property registry’ ordinance. The targeted properties include: those in foreclosure or re-foreclosure; those that have absentee owners; undeveloped or unoccupied land; or hotels or rooming houses renting to people who have no other permanent residence.”

“Allen Crumbley of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices Florida Properties Group, endorsed the idea. ‘It has to be done,’ said Crumbley whose company manages 2,000 rental units in the Tampa Bay area, including 400 in Pasco County. ‘Most people are responsible, but it doesn’t take too many (irresponsible owners) in a clustered area to deteriorate a neighborhood.'”

The Press of Atlantic City in New Jersey. “Candidate for Atlantic County Executive Susan M. Korngut, a Northfield lawyer and Democrat council member, has proposed a foreclosure action plan to combat what she called the ongoing housing problem in Atlantic County. Korngut called for a county program to coordinate how foreclosed properties are maintained, counseling for homeowners, a committee to assess the housing situation quarterly, and actions to list foreclosed properties for sale more promptly.”

“‘The housing market in Atlantic County is on shaky ground as it has been for years,’ Korngut said. ‘Under the current administration, we have led the nation in foreclosures, and we continue to be among the leaders in the state.'”

“With 1 in 794 properties in some stage of foreclosure, Atlantic County is now sixth in the nation behind the New Jersey counties of Mercer (1 in 543) and Gloucester (1 in 654); Orange in New York (1 in 684); Clay in Florida (1 in 739); and Cuyahoga in Ohio (1 in 745), according to ATTOM.”

The Washington Post. “Years after it appeared authorities had shut down a notorious party house near Dupont Circle known for its loud concerts, D.C. police have again put the expansive carriage house with heated pool and indoor 25-foot waterfall in their sights. Now, authorities say, the 5,220-square-foot home has been transformed from a rap music venue into a marijuana pop-up.”

“The raid came four years after the last owner, Douglas Jefferies, 52, settled a lawsuit filed by D.C. Attorney General Karl A. Racine over the Airbnb-marketed ‘Celebrity House Hunter Mansion’ and agreed to stop all business activity. The house was listed on Airbnb even after the settlement with Racine, though with a warning it was ‘not for events.’ The price dropped from $1,200 to $900 a night. Property records show the home with five bedrooms and five bathrooms went into foreclosure in July 2019.”

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  1. ‘So, is the real estate boom really over? ‘I think from an investor’s perspective, it’s true,’ Wei said. ‘The housing market is not growing as fast as it has in the previous two years … It is a fallback in terms of price. It’s an adjustment. That is definitely happening’

    Eat yer crowz Thornberg.

    ‘In the first half of 2019, we continued to see some lackluster performance of the housing market, particularly sales demand,’ Wei said. ‘In every single month since the beginning of the year, we had seen a decline compared to the previous year’

    Worser and worser.

  2. ‘Market prices have gone from what was once described as the kindest, gentlest correction to a near free fall. The last time conditions were described in such a way was in the height of the recession’

    Yes, the MSM has woke! Jeebus you clowns, this has been going on for over 3 years now.

    1. To be fair, without REIC money the MSM would be in even more dire straits. They might say their survival depended on propagating lies, kinda like their 3 year impeachment crusade, another campaign based on fraud and deceit.

      The legal changes to short term rentals starting to bring the pain to greed heads. Heard on the radio people complaining to politicians about not being able to retire, taking care of sick family members, etc. Sooooo sad!
      https://www.staradvertiser.com/2019/10/02/hawaii-news/texas-buyer-sues-seller-of-illegal-vacation-rental

  3. ‘The housing market in Atlantic County is on shaky ground as it has been for years…Under the current administration, we have led the nation in foreclosures, and we continue to be among the leaders in the state’

    ‘With 1 in 794 properties in some stage of foreclosure, Atlantic County is now sixth in the nation behind the New Jersey counties of Mercer (1 in 543) and Gloucester (1 in 654); Orange in New York (1 in 684); Clay in Florida (1 in 739); and Cuyahoga in Ohio (1 in 745)’

    Wa? But red hot? Lending is tight? Shortage!!

  5. “‘It’s a horrible market to be a seller,’ she said. ‘It’s absolutely fantastic to be a buyer.’”

    Because everyone loves to catch themselves a falling knife!

    1. You’ve gotta love these people. It’s ALWAYS a good time to buy! Just once I’d love to see a Senior Expert and Analyst say “Eh, Wait 6 months”.

      1. It’s like asking a car salesman if it’s a good time to buy a car. Of course they’ll say yes. The answer shouldn’t be shocking. For somebody to expect something different would be shocking.

  6. The New York Times. “‘This market is a bloodbath for some,’

    – ‘Sounds kind of serious or something. And to think we’re just getting started as the Fed-induced “Everything Bubble” pops… There be (serious) consequences to manipulating the economy.

    1. In the spring of 2017, I documented two resales of recently completed condos. One was in Manhattan one was in Miami Beach. Both sold for almost half of what the original buyers paid. What the media is doing here is dishonest. The bloodbath has been ongoing for years. As it has in the luxury shack market all over the world.

  7. NYC, Bay Area, Orange County, S. Florida, etc….the laundering of money has just added to the pressure on these markets…50% downside from here

  8. Indian Banker Discloses How He Hid Bad Loans From Regulator

    ‘An Indian bank was able to dupe regulators about its growing exposure to a single property developer for at least a decade before the firm filed for insolvency, according to a letter written by the lender’s managing director, who has since been removed.’

    ‘Punjab & Maharashtra Co-operative Bank Ltd. used “dummy accounts” and other methods to hide its oversized loans to Housing Development & Infrastructure Ltd. from the Reserve Bank of India, Joy Thomas wrote in the letter, a copy of which was seen by Bloomberg News.’

    “Every year during the course of RBI inspection we undergo into a lot of stress due to concealment of information from RBI,” Thomas wrote in his letter dated Sept. 21 and addressed to a senior supervisory official at the central bank. He said he also hid the true exposure from the PMC board and the bank’s auditors.’

    “This event might create a chain reaction among other lenders and they might turn more circumspect in lending to the real estate sector,” said Karthik Srinivasan, head of financial sector ratings at ICRA Ltd., the local unit of Moody’s Investors Service. “That is likely to increase the liquidity crunch among real estate companies.”

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/indian-banker-discloses-hid-bad-082242255.html

  9. ‘Global credit rating agency Fitch Ratings on Tuesday downgraded WeWork’s credit rating by two notches to “CCC+”, putting the Softbank-backed office-sharing firm deep into junk territory a day after it abandoned an initial public offering.’

    ‘WeWork, whose parent We Company lost $1.9 billion in 2018, had hoped to raise at least $3 billion in the abandoned IPO and borrow a further $6 billion in a loan from banks that was contingent on the listing.’

    “In the absence of an IPO and associated senior secured debt raise, WeWork does not have sufficient funding to meet its growth plan,” Fitch wrote in a note.’

    ‘WeWork’s 7.875% junk bond was last trading at about 84 cents on the dollar, according to MarketAxess, a significant discount to face value, which indicated investor concerns about repayment or doubts about the company securing alternative financing.’

    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fitch-downgrades-wework-aborted-ipo-001002636.html

    1. February 22, 2019

      “Palm Beach County home sales plummeted in January to their lowest level since the Great Recession. ‘The spike in interest rates just cooled the number of buyers off,’ said Henry Kaplan, sales manager at Century 21 Tenace Realty in Boynton Beach. Now, Realtors say, buyers have more bargaining power — and sellers are being forced to cut prices.”

      “Terry Story, an agent in Boca Raton, said she recently persuaded a dozen of her clients to reduce their asking prices. ‘They were overpriced,’ Story said. ‘A lot of sellers base their prices on what their neighbors were asking.’ Story sees a bright side to softer sale prices. ‘Our prices have been unsustainable increases, and it needed to roll back a little bit,’ she said.”

      http://housingbubble.blog/?p=1076

  11. ‘A San Mateo County Association of Realtors report showed the median sales price hitting $1.54 million. The local market’s annual peak was reached in May, when median home sales prices rose to $1.76 million — nearly equaling the $1.8 median sales prices struck in April 2018’

    Good thing everybody is putting 20% down…

  12. ‘fears of a housing market collapse akin to a decade ago are unwarranted, said C.A.R. Senior Economist and Director of Research Oscar Wei…The economy remains strong, with some softening in the housing market, but there is no reason for investors or home buyers to panic’

    I’m fine Oscar, thanks for your concern.

      1. The MSM lied to me. They indicated the “everything is awesome” economy was here to stay!

        Economy
        September private payrolls report shows the pace of hiring is slowing
        Published 4 hours ago
        Updated 3 hours ago
        Jeff Cox

        Key Points
        – Private payrolls rose by 135,000 in September, ahead of Dow Jones estimates for 125,000, according to ADP and Moody’s Analytics.
        – That brought the monthly average for 2019 down to 145,000, compared with 214,000 a year earlier.
        – Education and health services saw the fastest growth with 42,000 positions. Trade, transportation and utilities was next with 28,000.
        …

    2. but there is no reason for investors or home buyers to panic’

      Anyone with half a brain, even if half of that isn’t working, has picked up on the tight correlation between between talking heads reassuring people there is no need to panic and the actual need to panic. They never harp on this mantra until the avalanche has started and you are in its direct path.

  13. Another day, another 500 points down on the Dow.

    Dow tumbles more than 500 points in midday trade, as stock-market skid gathers steam
    By Mark DeCambre
    Published: Oct 2, 2019 11:37 a.m. ET

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average late-morning Wednesday was on pace for the worst daily drop in about six weeks, with the broader market logging a fresh session low. The declines have accelerated since the the market’s open and now put the major averages on track for the worst session since Aug. 23 after a reading on private-sector employment came in weaker-than-expected. The Dow (DJIA, -1.83%) was most recently off 530 points, or 2%, at 26,040, the S&P 500 index (SPX, -1.70%) was down 1.9% at 2,884, while those for the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, -1.61%) was sinking 1.8% at 7,770.
    …

  14. Massive tank in the DOW today. I’m hoping that there is at least one more recovery in there that so I can get out (within the retirement funds). Luckily, I’m so diversified that there’s not a lot to get out of.

    But where to go? I poked around the bond funds and decided that they weren’t for me. After all I’ve heard about debt, I just don’t have it in me to buy someone’s debt. Cash?

    1. I keep looking for a where to?
      The s&p is paying way more than the 10yr so it’s easy to wait.

      anyone have a stock screener that filter union and pension bound companies?

      1. It seems like quantitative easing was the main driver of S&P 500 index gains since March 2009. Perhaps a near-term announcement that QE will soon resume could keep the party going?

        S&P 500 Shows Signs of a Business Cycle Ending, Says Portfolio Manager
        By Kiril Nikolaev
        October 2, 2019

        The S&P 500 (SPX) has been in a strong uptrend since March 2009.

        To date, the large-cap index has been in a bull market for 127 weeks According to CNN, the S&P 500 is in the midst of the longest bull run in history.

        Consequently, many market participants feel euphoric. They think that the party won’t end.
        …

        1. “According to CNN, the S&P 500 is in the midst of the longest bull run in history.”

          The longer the bull run the closer to the end it gets. The only way this cannot be true is if there is no end to the bull run.

          If you believe there is no end to this bull run then you are an idiot (this automatically qualifies you for a place line for my Dotted Line Special).

    2. buy someone’s debt ??

      Well, T-Bills are more than just “someone’s debt”…If the full faith and credit of the USA defaults, then there is no place to hide including cash…Just go short term…

      1. In CA you don’t pay tax on the dividends with treasuries.
        You can also buy a treasury money market fund.

        I’m below 50% stock as a percentage of total funds which is pretty conservative for me.

        1. Members of Congress are covered under the Federal Employees’ Retirement System (FERS), and the Thrift Savings Plan (TSP) has a unique Treasury Index Fund (G). It’ll be the last thing to fail on this green planet.

          2. She may have access to the same retirement programs, but it sounds like she may be overinvested in stocks, given recent developments on Wall Street.

    3. What’s your current age range? I’m planning to just sit tight for a while, maybe sell off some of the more high-PE items.

      1. Heh, I’m just south of 50. Not old enough to panic. But not young enough “time for things to recover,” as the financial press likes to say.

        1. I remember how shook up many folks were, circa March 2009, following a six month shellacking on Wall Street that led to a roughly 50 percent stock market decline. One of my colleagues, who didn’t get shook up, bought the 50 percent off stock sale and subsequently doubled his money in the ensuing recovery.

          Lesson learned: Selloff = opportunity, provided you weren’t initially overinvested in the asset class that cratered.

          1. Lesson learned: Selloff = opportunity

            Sure. But now that everybody has been trained to buy the dip in stocks and houses, what happens next? I think it only works right when it’s the opposite of what most people are thinking.

          2. Sell offs can also last for 25 years as in 1929 to 1954 to get back to even or in the case of Japan 30 years and still no where near even. Of course no one knows what will happen but calling a bottom and not catching a falling knife takes a lot of luck. Good luck.

          3. Yep, the Japanese Nikkei index is still well below it’s 1989 peak. And that’s without even allowing for inflation! (Of course, market indices are never adjusted for inflation.)

          2. Heh, people say that “by your age the good men are all taken,” and I retort that “by my age they’re freeing back up.”

          3. I honestly believe that potential partners of the opposite sex are available at all ages, but they become more thinly spread and difficult to find beyond the primary hookup years below age 30.

          4. I’m still dating my wife, but as B.B King would say, “The Thrill Is Gone.” On the other hand maybe it’s our children’s college bills taking their toll?

          5. We have the college tuition problem as well, but are trying to nonetheless continue to enjoy our marriage.

          9. “by my age they’re freeing back up.”

            And what people want in their 20s/30s is likely to be different in their 40s/50s. A friend of mine found a great guy the second time around. Both are divorced (he has 2 kids in their 20s), in established careers, and in no rush to remarry.

        1. Good luck Joe and Oxide. I figure I’ve got 20 years left to spend everything, so I’m mostly calculating what returns the most fun.

    4. Why not PMs? Eg, GLD, SLV, AGQ. Or miners? JNUG, GDX, GDXJ. They have been suppressed for years and are starting to rise (doesn’t mean they can’t be manipulated lower). Or try FAZ or SKF (anti-financials), currently close to an all-time low. Or SRS or DRV (anti-commercial RE), also close to all-time lows. 80-90% cash and 10-20% in a mix of these wouldn’t hurt if the markets crash.

      Disclaimer: I’m about 75% cash and the rest about evenly divided between JNUG, FAZ and my pet tech stock (TEAM).

    5. If only the MSM reported Treasurys in terms of price appreciation instead of yield declines, I’m sure many investors would grasp the historic opportunity they have missed pretty much since 1982, but especially today.

      PS Needless to add, the employment report dissapointed.

      The Wall Street Journal Treasurys
      Safety Seeking Investors Fuel Surge in U.S. Treasurys
      Traders brace for more demand if employment report disappoints
      By Matt Wirz
      Oct. 2, 2019 12:59 pm ET

      A sharp rally in U.S. government bonds entered its second day Wednesday, fueled by investors’ mounting concern about the strength of the global economy.

      The yield of the 10-year Treasury note, which tends to decline when investors are nervous about growth, fell to 1.591%, according according to Tradeweb, from 1.651% Tuesday. Yields decline when bond prices rise.
      …

    6. “I’m hoping that there is at least one more recovery in there that so I can get out (within the retirement funds).”

      500 points off all-time highs is nothing to fret about, my lady. Waiting to recoup that paltry amount – timing the peak as it were – is how people end up getting slaughtered.

    1. I’d like the names of any contractors who will build for $50.00 a square foot. You can’t buy a manufactured home for that.

      2. You can’t buy a manufactured home for that.

        You’re the one that thinks sleazy investors run amok are good for the economy. Now you’d like to build a modest house? I rather doubt it.

  16. Noticed this in my morning reading:

    https://jalopnik.com/the-collapse-might-finally-be-here-1838696472

    1st Gear: The ‘Oh Shit’ Moment Has Arrived

    For the past two years or so, we’ve seen a general flattening or outright decline in new car sales after nearly a decade of unfettered growth. Some segments and brands have fared better than others, of course. In general, this hasn’t been a stellar time to be selling sedans and small cars. But fears of a saturated new car market have always loomed large, compounded by concerns over a larger economic downturn lurking around the corner.

    …

    Results were disastrous for leading Asian automakers Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., which both suffered double-digit declines that were worse than analysts anticipated. While a fuller picture will emerge Wednesday when General Motors Co. and Ford Motor Co. are due to report, the poor performance suggests that overall deliveries of cars and light trucks could come in worse than the 12% drop anticipated by analysts, based on six estimates.

    …

    I won’t go into all the details here but there’s a ton more at Automotive News explaining how bad it was, brand by brand. Just read the headlines:

    SUBARU: Streak ends at 93 months

    TOYOTA-LEXUS: 17% drop as cars, trucks take hit

    NISSAN-INFINITI: Weak light trucks deliver a big slump

    HYUNDAI-KIA: Only Genesis posts gain

    1. I went to a Toyota lot a few weeks ago and I did not see a single other person there. I was way out in the back 40 checking out 4Runners when a salesperson showed up. They must have a drone flying around to find people like me, because I was out in a dirt overflow lot, completely hidden from the building. Their inventories were absolutely bursting.

      1. I had a dealer from whom I bought 7 years ago call me, pleading me to come in as they had “unbelievable deals”. I told them that the car we bought from them still purrs like a kitten, so we aren’t in the market, and probably won’t be for a very long time as the car only has 40K miles on it.

        It wasn’t was they were hoping to hear.

        1. I just opted to spend $1,400 to put in a new rack and pinion unit in my 220k mile 2006 Acura TSX. With my new job I don’t drive more than a few miles a day and it didn’t seem worth it to start the car payment cycle. Still runs great and looks decent for 13 years old plus I’ve done all the maintenance and know what has and hasn’t been replaced.

          Up until a couple years ago, my roommate was paying $900 a month in payments and insurance to lease a little Lexus hybrid. He gave it up totally at the end and has no need for a car since.

          Let’s see how good those deals REALLY get, and then MAYBE I’ll reconsider.

          1. Like you guys, our current cars are running strong. An ’06 BMW wagon (NA i6 , not the pesky turbo) and an ’08 Honda CRV – both with right about 100K miles. Can easily see 5-10 more years out of them, and zero reason to replace them.

            We get the flyers from the dealers in the mail often enough. I expect to see the attempts to entice only to increase.

          2. $900 a month in payments and insurance to lease a little Lexus hybrid

            Yeesh. That’s quite a raise after taxes to stop paying for that.

            Turns out Audi isn’t going to bring the RS Q3 to the USA so I’ll probably keep the 335xi on the road for at least a few more years. But I will be watching the Tesla Model Y. I like the idea of a 7 passenger Model 3 with all the options including track mode. Could be fun down at Sears Point and Laguna Seca. Odds are high that I’ll break the BMW if I take it there.

          3. 2001 MB E320 with 223,000 miles on it – so far it’s cost ~$1300 (new brakes, new battery, two $100 oil changes, and $120 for 2 used tires). Electrical system is flaky (e.g. power locks aren’t working), but engine is solid. Fill-ups are painful (21 gal of premium gas).

            Hopefully it will last another couple years, probably to be replaced by another practical, used car. If I wanted a fun car I’d go for the Miata (I still miss my 240SX convertible, which lasted 17 years)

  17. Twain was certainly prophetic to anticipate the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes.

    Mark Twain effect
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_Twain_effect

    In some stock markets, the Mark Twain effect is the phenomenon of stock returns in October being lower than in other months.[1] The name comes from a line in Mark Twain’s Pudd’nhead Wilson: “October. This is one of the peculiarly dangerous months to speculate in stocks. The others are July, January, September, April, November, May, March, June, December, August, and February.”[2]

    The quotation is a sarcastic assertion that speculation in stocks is always dangerous. The fact that Twain specifically picks out October initially is taken as a reference to an “October effect”, as exemplified by the 1929, 1987 and 2008 stock market crashes which roughly occurred in October.

    1. Dow down nearly 600 points as October stock-market skid gathers steam
      …
      By Mark DeCambre
      Published: Oct 2, 2019 11:37 a.m. ET

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average late-morning Wednesday was on pace for the worst daily drop in about six weeks, with the broader market logging a fresh session low. The declines have accelerated since the the market’s open and now put the major averages on track for the worst session since Aug. 23 after a reading on private-sector employment came in weaker-than-expected. The Dow (DJIA, -1.99%) was most recently off 530 points, or 2%, at 26,040, the S&P 500 index (SPX, -1.94%) was down 1.9% at 2,884, while those for the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, -1.74%) was sinking 1.8% at 7,770.
      …

  18. The ‘Oh Shit’ Moment Has Arrived ??

    Maybe we should be monitoring the sales trends of toilet paper… :>)

    1. Public service announcement: do NOT use Bim Bam Boo toilet paper, or any other toilet paper made out of bamboo. Bamboo is really strong and doesn’t break down, so it clogs up the main sewer pipe. I found this out the hard way. If you want to save trees, use bamboo paper towels.

  19. “This market is a bloodbath for some,’ said Frances Katzen, an agent with Douglas Elliman, who said that buyers who bought at peak prices a few years ago are unwilling to lower their prices further, because they would lose money on the deal.”

    Define bloodbath? In Brooklyn, a house identical to the one I live in sold for $300,000 in 1987, at the peak of that bi-coastal bubble. We paid $209,000. But factor in inflation and the real decline was 50 percent.

    At the time the whole Baby Boom was moving into the parenting phase, so those who bought condos and co-ops saw decreases far greater than that for rowhouses and suburban homes. You might remember all the bank examiners coming up from Texas to shut down half the banks in the Northeast at the time.

    “We’ll never see another bubble like that one after that lesson,” I thought at the time. Wrong. Bubble through 2000. Bubble through 2007. Another bubble.

    1. Same here. The used car market has been so bloated with inventory you can just take your time and make low ball offers until you get someone desperate to sell. If you are on a budget, you can easily find a car under 5k$ that will last you ten years.

    2. There’s simply too much money wrapped-up in automobile loans that have been securitized for the big boys to allow “market forces” to have their way. It’s going to bailed-out, again.

    3. “The combination of rock-bottom rates and yield-hungry investors helped bring the U.S. auto industry back to life. By 2015, auto sales had reached records.”

      Manna!

  24. But since November there has actually been an increase in shadow inventory to the tune of 391 units. This appears to be the longest stretch without some material decline in inventory. Hell if I know why.”

    Well let me enlighten you, REIC shill: It’s because FBS with no skin in the game are walking away in droves from their underwater shacks.

  25. The Financial Times
    Equities
    Global market rout hands FTSE 100 worst day since 2016
    Weak US jobs data adds to investor concerns over worldwide economic outlook
    Trader Tommy Kalikas, center, works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, Monday, Aug. 12, 2019. Stocks are edging lower in early trading on Wall Street amid investor concerns that the U.S.-China trade war may be worsening.
    (AP Photo/Richard Drew)
    © AP
    Richard Henderson, Colby Smith and Joe Rennison in New York 4 hours ago

    Global stocks fell heavily on Wednesday, with the UK market having its worst day in more than three years, after poor US jobs data compounded weak manufacturing reports and geopolitical fears — a pile-up of risks that sets the stage for a rocky fourth quarter.

    The UK’s benchmark FTSE 100 closed 3.2 per cent lower, the largest one day fall since January 2016 and exceeding the decline that followed the UK referendum in June 2016. The US S&P 500 fell 1.8 per cent, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed down 1.6 per cent.

    The sell-off suggests the growth concerns that have been pumping up bond markets this year are belatedly leaking into global stocks — a shift that many investors would view as an overdue correction.
    …

    1. Markets
      Stock Markets Have Long Tails and Tiny Brains
      Bonds bit this brontosaurus at its extremity months ago. The message has only just penetrated.
      By John Authers
      October 2, 2019, 11:01 PM CDT
      Feeling anything yet?
      Photographer: JULIO CESAR AGUILAR/AFP/Getty Images

      Jurassic Stock Markets

      This is a time when only a dinosaur analogy will do. Equity markets around the world are suddenly moving to price in the alarm about slowing global growth that has been evident in bond markets for many months. Why?
      …

  27. Are you wondering why there are no homes for sale to speak of in your area? Perhaps mortgage modifications are partly to blame.

    1. This has to have been one of the largest ad hoc wealth transfers in the history of the U.S., showering wealthy homeowners with bailouts while leaving
      relatively less well-off renters out in the cold.

      However, it’s good to know that affordability improvements may be on the way as a result.

      Opinion: This widening crack in the mortgage market could sink U.S. home prices
      By Keith Jurow
      Published: Oct 3, 2019 5:20 a.m. ET
      Re-defaults on already modified mortgages are a threat to homeowners
      AFP/Getty Images

      Wall Street and the news media have paid considerable attention to U.S. home mortgage modifications, but not much notice has been given to the growing problem of re-defaults on these modifications. Re-defaults are a massive problem — and endanger the U.S. mortgage and housing markets.

      What is a mortgage modification? In the midst of the housing collapse more than a decade ago, mortgage modifications were rolled out to enable millions of delinquent homeowners to avoid having their home foreclosed. In its latest report, the non-profit Hope Now consortium — the major source for modification data — estimated that 8.7 million permanent mortgage modifications have been implemented in the U.S. since the end of 2007.
      …

      1. That cover photo reminds me of the Montecito, CA landslide.

        These FBs were hanging by their fingernails just trying to service the mortgage’s interest. The eventual principal payments are what pushed ’em over the edge. And they’re talking about $400k mortgages during the Bubble #1 run-up. I assume these $950k mortgages for a California 3/2 rancher are destined to fail in due time. “I feel the earth move under my feet…” —Carole King

  28. The National Joke (aka San Francisco) moves into a yet deeper stage of ludricity …

    San Francisco removes boulders from sidewalks placed by residents to deter homeless | TheHill
    https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/464047-san-francisco-removes-boulders-from-sidewalks-placed-by-residents-to

    (snip)

    “Boulders placed on San Francisco’s sidewalks by residents to deter homeless people from camping out were removed by the city this week.

    “The Associated Press reports a group of neighbors who were fed up with the city’s homelessness and drug issues coordinated an effort to place boulders along the sidewalks.

    “The boulders were then pushed off the sidewalks and into the streets by homeless advocates, the AP reported. The city then put the rocks back on the sidewalk because of safety concerns, but then advocates again pushed them into the street, prompting the city to remove the boulders altogether.”

    Stay tuned.

    1. Stay tuned.

      Things like boulders are people’s attempts to hint politely. I expect politeness to decrease the more it is ignored.

  29. Oh the humanity!

    Dow sinks after ISM services report hits three-year low and adds to slowdown fears
    By Mark DeCambre
    Published: Oct 3, 2019 10:28 a.m. ET

    The Dow Jones Industrial Average pivoted firmly lower Thursday morning after a closely watched report on conditions in the services sector came in much weaker than economists had expected. The Institute for Supply Management’s non-service sector survey for September fell to 52.6 in from 56.4, marking the weakest reading in about three years. A reading of 50 indicates improving conditions but the report reflects a retrenchment of the economy, after a batch of other reports have come in softer in recent days. Those include ADP’s private-sector employment report on Wednesday and ISM’s manufacturing survey on Tuesday, which was the weakest since 2009. “That is 2.4 pts below the estimate of 55 and the lowest print since August 2016 when we saw the last manufacturing / services adjustment on the heels of the decline in oil prices,” wrote Peter Boockvar, chief investment officer of Bleakley Advisory Group, in a research note after the services data. The ISM services employment index, meanwhile, slipped to 50.4 from 53.1 for the month. The Dow (DJIA, -0.45%) was down 200 points, or 0.8%, at 25,877, the S&P 500 index (SPX, -0.27%) was down 0.6% at 2,871, while the Nasdaq Composite Index (COMP, -0.27%) declined 0.5% at 7,743.
    …

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