A report from the Wall Street Journal. “In 2019, about 19% of U.S. households with six-figure incomes rented their homes, up from about 12% in 2006, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data that adjusted the incomes for inflation. Jacob Neuberger, a 30-year-old who works in Denver for an investment firm, considered buying when he moved out of his one-bedroom downtown apartment. He and his girlfriend opted to rent a townhouse for $2,700 a month. The one next door sold for $550,000.”
“Mr. Neuberger estimated that his costs to own would be about 20% higher than renting and that he would need the townhouse to appreciate by about 10% to cover transaction costs if he needed to sell to buy a bigger home or if he had to move for work. ‘The price appreciation can’t go on forever,’ he said.”
From KTVB on Idaho. “Meridian has come in at No. 7 in a Wallethub listing of the fastest-growing cities in the U.S. When matched up against other mid-sized cities – those with a population between 100,000 and 300,000. One effect the growth has is on the housing market. Phil Mount, President of Boise Regional Realtors, said Meridian currently does not have a housing shortage but they are behind.”
“Currently, Meridian has 622 homes available and the majority of those, 409, are new homes. The average home price in Meridian for 2019 is $343,528.”
The Orlando Sentinel in Florida. “Although nationwide mortgage denials are at an all-time low since the housing crisis, homebuyers are most likely not to get loans in Miami, Orlando and other Florida cities, a new report found. The report by Lending Tree, an online lending marketplace, named Miami, Orlando, Tampa and Jacksonville as the top 4 cities with the highest denial rates. In Orlando, more than 1 in 10 people who applied for a loan were denied. Having bad credit and too much debt were the main reasons for denials.”
“Daniel Betancourt, an agent with ReMAX Town Centre in Orlando, said he hasn’t had any problems with clients getting approved, and pointed out that lending standards have actually loosened In the last few years.”
“Brad Siebert, branch manager for The Mortgage Firm in Maitland said he was ‘shocked’ by the report. ‘I will tell you that it’s been years since I submitted a loan that hasn’t gotten approved,’ he said. ‘I’ve had more loans approved every year going back since I can remember. I don’t answer the phone and say, ‘Oh boy, it’s a Florida loan.'”
From The Title Report. “During September, a mere 11 percent of offers written by Redfin agents faced a bidding war, according to a report. Redfin said the bidding war rate was down from 41 percent a year earlier. The most-competitive market in September was San Francisco, where 28 percent of offers faced a bidding war, down from 69 percent a year earlier.”
“In San Jose, Calif., 18 percent of offers faced competition in September, down from 83 percent a year earlier. ‘More sellers are pricing their homes a little below the price they expect to sell at, which is encouraging bidding wars to drive up price,’ Redfin San Jose agent Kimberly Douglas said. ‘In addition to teaser pricing like this, I’ve seen very aggressive price drops happening more often lately.'”
From PR Newswire. “Knock, on a mission to make trading-in a home as easy as trading-in a car, today released the results of the Q4 2019 Knock Deals Forecast, predicting which of 45 of the largest U.S. Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) will have the highest percentage of homes that sell at a discount to their original list prices, or at a ‘Deal,’ among current on-market listings.”
“‘Many cities in the West that saw increased competition during the recent housing market uptick are now experiencing some of the more significant slowdowns in sales activity,’ said Paul Habibi, Economic Advisor to Knock and Lecturer of Real Estate at UCLA Anderson School of Management. ‘This mild softening of the market seen in Knock’s Q4 Forecast is reflective of other recent studies, and the year-over-year increase in the rate of deals in markets like Los Angeles warrants continued observation.'”
“Homes that are priced over market value tend to sit on the market longer, which can result in them selling for less than if they had originally been priced to market. Nearly 20% of homes that sold in the West in Q3 2019 were on the market for at least 90 days, and sold at an average discount of 5.2%, compared to 1.9% for the overall region. In a market like Los Angeles, CA where homes are frequently priced $800,000 and above, that difference could have resulted in an additional discount of at least $26,400.”
“As markets continue to top the list on reports like the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller, which reflect data from two months prior to publication, sellers’ expectations of current market value are inflated, leading to price reductions and eventually more deals. Further evidence of this trend in the West is that the three markets that saw the highest increase in homes selling below original list prices in Q3 2019 compared to Q3 2018 were in the West: San Jose, CA (+22.4% YoY), Las Vegas, NV (+18.7% YoY), San Francisco (+13.9% YoY). Las Vegas in particular has been seeing rapid change and made both the top 10 markets for predicted deals in Q4 2019 and the top 10 markets in terms of Q3 2019 home sales.”
From Politico. “‘WeWork Planned a Residential Utopia. It Hasn’t Turned Out That Way,’ by The New York Times’ Matthew Haag, Rebecca Liebson and Andrea Salcedo: ‘After first pledging to upend the way people worked, WeWork vowed to change how they lived: WeLive, a sleek dormitory for working professionals with free beer, arcade games in the laundry room and catered Sunday dinners, would spread around the world. It has not quite turned out that way. WeLive has not expanded beyond its first two locations and efforts to open sites in India and Israel have collapsed.'”
“‘In addition to long-term rentals, WeLive offers rooms at its only locations, in New York City and Virginia, for nightly stays on hotel sites. In fact, New York City has investigated whether units legally meant to be long-term apartments were being advertised as hotel rooms in WeLive’s Lower Manhattan building once billed as a residential utopia with shared living space, communal meals and social gatherings.'”
The Seattle Times in Washington. “The fault lines in the crumbling real-estate empire of formerly high-flying coworking startup WeWork have reached Seattle. WeWork’s first local casualty: a mixed-use project in Belltown, due to be occupied by WeWork and its residential subsidiary, WeLive. Martin Selig Real Estate owns the 36-story project which had been slated to be the third WeLive location in the country.”
“On Friday, the deal was dissolved by mutual agreement between We Co., WeWork’s parent company, and Martin Selig Real Estate, the parties confirmed. Until this summer, WeWork seemingly could do no wrong. In January, the last time it raised funds, the startup was valued at $47 billion.”
“And as WeWork is rocked by turmoil, the company has put on the back burner any new leases, meaning hundreds of thousands of square feet it was considering in Seattle could be up for grabs. WeWork, already one of the Seattle area’s largest office landlords, previously planned to scale up further by subleasing from Amazon close to 400,000 square feet at the Rainier Square skyscraper now under construction. The slowdown throws that deal into question. So far, the company hasn’t inked a contract on the space.”
The Daily Astorian in Oregon. “Attempting to bring timber jobs back comes with risk. There’s greater competition from foreign markets, plus a strong dollar that makes Oregon timber harder to sell. An unstable housing market has sunk the price of lumber during the past year. On private lands, the amount of timber sold is a function of market forces.”
“‘When markets are good, we produce a lot of lumber; if the demand doesn’t catch up, we have too much,’ said Bruce Daucsavage, general manager of Prineville-based Ochoco Lumber.”
Comments are closed.
‘I will tell you that it’s been years since I submitted a loan that hasn’t gotten approved…I’ve had more loans approved every year going back since I can remember’
Ahem…
When it is not your money, the loan is backed by the taxpayers and you make your money off commissions…
What could be any other outcome?
‘Currently, Meridian has 622 homes available and the majority of those, 409, are new homes’
‘his costs to own would be about 20% higher than renting and that he would need the townhouse to appreciate by about 10% to cover transaction costs if he needed to sell to buy a bigger home or if he had to move for work’
When this happens, it’s over.
‘The price appreciation can’t go on forever’
This person has seen what central bankers can’t. When the only reason to buy is anticipated appreciation, it’s a purely speculative market that will eventually run out of greater fools.
This is exactly our situation. Those who could buy, but choose not to. I was on apartments.com yesterday and I couldn’t believe the flood of nice houses that were available to rent below $1500/month. When we first moved to this area, rental prices were just going up and up and up. Now the inventory flooding the market as new apartments come online and all of the sudden renters are starting to have their pick of nice places at a price that is lower than if they were to purchase. Feels like things are changing, despite the interest rate cuts.
I’m seeing the same in the Salt Lake Valley. Houses that used to rent for over $2,000 are now listed for $1,600. Houses that used to start at $400,000 are now in the middle 300s.
Since I don’t foresee 10% appreciation again any time soon I’m going to keep throwing away money on rent.
It’s awesome to hear that both rents and purchase prices are cratering in the SLC area. Perhaps there’s reason to hope for an eventual return to sanity in California along similar lines, especially given how long overpriced places are just sitting on the market, twisting in the wind.
I suppose I would be more elated had my inlaws not gotten caught selling a large home into the cratering Utah market this summer.
boots
In comparison, DC is pretty stable. The price drops which grab the headlines are high-end, new stuff, outer burbs, or heh NoVa. The older smaller inner suburbs ($350K level) are somewhat flat. If I see a price drop in this range, it’s usually a reno-flip that’s trying to make bank on their $60K reno.
No flood of rentals in my area. There are a few SFH rentals but the rates are comparable to or a little more than equivalent mortgage PITI. I guess this is a place where people live and work instead of speculate.
inner suburbs ($350K level)
What’s the household income in that place?
These specific neighborhoods, hard to say. But I’m guessing it’s around $100-130K. It can come from one educated career bureaucrat, or a young couple 3-5 years out of college with $60K jobs each. Or from a mishmash of 4-5 immigrant families making cash under the table. It’s not out of reach.
The flips around here are bought for $325K and try to sell for $430K+. Those are the ones that are sitting.
My assessment of the inner city DC market is that prices are flat from two years ago but inventory is surging at the moment. I have it up 45% since the spring.
I don’t really follow the burbs. But we know they got a shot in the arm from the Amazon HODLers.
BlueSkye — area median income is pretty darn high there… it’s $82,250 for the DC region and its higher in (most of) the close in suburbs.
7x median income for a used shack?
It’s no wonder DC housing prices and rental rates are plunging.
a shot in the arm
The DC market actually effects the Western NY market. When the boom is on DC speculators buy up SFHs here with their Home Equity. We’ll see how that plays out in reverse.
350,000 / 82,000 = 4.27
So, a little high.
Median sale price is roughly $550k. 550/82=6.7x
Either way, both are many multiples higher than the long term historic trend of 2x annual income.
Denver = CRATER.
This guy in the article is already planning on leaving, he knows this place is a joke.
‘The price appreciation can’t go on forever’
It sure seems like it can in the stock market.
Dow closes at 3-week high as investors cheer start to earnings season
By Chris Matthews and William Watts
Published: Oct 15, 2019 4:32 p.m. ET
UnitedHealth jumps 8% to lead Dow, S&P 500 gainers
Getty Images
JPMorgan Chase & Co. shares jumped after third-quarter results.
U.S. stocks finished at more-than-three-week highs Tuesday, as investors cheered a raft of largely upbeat corporate earnings reports, while considering the implications of a partial U.S.-China trade deal announced last Friday and the possibility of a breakthrough in Brexit negotiations.
…
‘The price appreciation$ can’t go on forever’
It sure seems like it can in the $tock market
Fa$ter!, fa$ter!, fa$ter!!!
Eye await, thee re$ult$!
Highway: $4.50 soybeans under Clinton great for farmers, $8.50 soybeans under Trump is the great depression:
https://www.macrotrends.net/2531/soybean-prices-historical-chart-data
Even adjusted for inflation there is no calamity and China is very quickly coming to its knees. If Trump was at all worried he would lower the tariffs for a big farm deal, he will get more for the farmers than they could even have imagined before this is over:
aqdan, another $wing, yet again, another mi$$ … $wissssssh, nothin’s but air!
https://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/farm-economy/farm-sector-income-finances/farm-sector-income-forecast/
Keep paying’ yer taxe$ aqdan, $onny Perdue will di$tribute ’em were they are most needed: Mega.Farm$
Does anyone have a good link to the cumulative amount of farm aide that has been given since the trade wars? I would be curious to know this number. I seem to recall that the last batch was $16 billion, but I was wondering what it is in the aggregate.
https://farm.ewg.org/progdetail.php?fips=00000&progcode=total&page=states
Highway, your post below shows the subsidies since 1995, like Trump is responsible for subsidies paid prior to his presidency. One thing is very clear the amount of money collected by the tariffs is at least twice and probably greater than 3 times the subsidies paid. Cheapest war we have ever fought.
Cheapest war
Speaking of abusive relationships, calling you looking out for your own well being a “war” is only logical to the abuser.
Thanks Hwy, $390 billion since 1995. That is a ton of tax payer money transferred to a handful of states.
Seattle, WA Housing Prices Crater 29% YOY As Seattle Ranks Last In Latest Quality Of Life Survey
https://www.zillow.com/seattle-wa-98102/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on first chart
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/15/lower-mortgage-rates-are-causing-an-epic-housing-shortage.html
SHORTAGE!!!!! BUY NOW OR FOREVER BE PRICED OUT!
“Now is the best time to buy!”
-Local Realtor
The only shortage is that of that UHS’s that list at market price. EPIC SHORTAGE BUY NOW!!! -D00MED the Realtor
If there is a hell, I will be seeing Mrs. Olick one of these days.
That Diana is a one-note drum.
“…WeWork Planned a Residential Utopia. It Hasn’t Turned Out That Way..”
I used to think that “Luxury Student Housing” was the biggest scam of the 21st century, but now WeWork / WeLive may take title to the biggest scam of them all. “Luxury Student Housing” is going to have to settle for #2.
“…a sleek dormitory for working professionals with free beer, arcade games in the laundry room and catered Sunday dinners, would spread around the world…”
What? No dog walk? No free Wifi? No concierge service? No in house dating service? No onsite free clinic?
Only difference? Student housing relies on borrowed student loans. Presumably the “WeWork / WeLive” crowd are pulling in actual paychecks.
“dormitory for working professionals”
Does it come with suicide nets?
He and his girlfriend opted to rent a townhouse for $2,700 a month. The one next door sold for $550,000.”
“Mr. Neuberger estimated that his costs to own would be about 20% higher than renting
Excuse me, but I think it would be quite a bit north of 20%, even without depreciation.
The importance of timing, hedge fund wiped out by betting on CRE downturn too early.
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/hedge-fund-which-bet-big-next-big-short-forced-liquidate-trade-fizzles
For those who are just casual observers, it is immaterial, but, if money is at stake, it behooves one to consider all the possible flaws in one’s hypothesis on the housing downturn no matter how unlikely they may appear because, though you may be right about the denouement, if you get the timing wrong, the financial repercussions may be dire.
I read about that this morning. They were gambling on mall derivatives.
That bear hedge fund underestimated the lengths the Fed and other central bankers will go to to keep their asset bubbles and Ponzi markets levitated. They will print and monetize debt until the whole house of cards collapses under the weight of its own debt and fictitious valuations.
“That bear hedge fund underestimated the lengths the Fed and other central bankers will go to to keep their asset bubbles and Ponzi markets levitated.”
+1 Get shorty!
The practice hardly went away when Enron went up in smoke.
Agree with John g
In bubble 1 a guy I Later worked with was an MSR Guy at Countrywide.
He said NONE of their Home pricing models had a national depreciation rate for homes. Every model had homes appreciating.
We know how that turned out.
IIRC back in the day the NY Times rent/buy calculator (or something like that?) couldn’t enter a negative number for appreciation.
$4/sqft per year every year is a painful hit. Ignored by DebtDonkeys at their own peril.
“Ignored by DebtDonkeys at their own peril.”
all DebtDonkey$ are Demo.cratic. Farmer$ who love dtRumpsis & his “trade.war$ ” are ea$y! (29 month$ later!)
Haaaaaaaaaaaaa, keep $ucking up yer favorite saliva mb!
all DebtDonkey$ are Demo.cratic
Far from the truth.
Zillow is predicting “slight” price declines in San Diego over the next little while. Don’t tell the adherents of the San Diego Church of Real Estate Price Appreciation.
Correction: They are predicting price declines in Rancho Bernardo, but slight appreciation for San Diego overall.
Which, by the way, is a crock of shiitake. They are predicting Poway will see price increases but neighboring Rancho Bernardo will see price declines. My money is on price craters in both locales over the next real estate bust, which looks set to play out over the next five or so years.
” …but $light appreciation for $an Diego overall. ”
Just how many used home$ that are 1600 sq’ exist in that local? $ingle or double Te$la wide detached garages?
Massive inventory jump in Gilbert AZ and other AZ cities.
Been watching craters in other states and was frustrated seeing
AZ inventory dwindling and prices to the moon. Now inventory has almost doubled in Gilbert AZ in the last 4 weeks. Maybe the
institutional holders are starting to unload?
https://www.ziprealty.com/for-sale-homes/Gilbert-AZ-3520c
“Ma$$ive inventory jump in Gilbert AZ and other AZ cities.”
Maybee, x2 demo.craptic 2020 $enators $et to exhume thee bad thumb of Coward $enator McCain!
I am bullish on increasing TDS in Highway as the election gets closer.
“Maybe the
institutional holders are starting to unload?”
I’m a hoping and a praying that these folks get scorched so badly in the next bust that they avoid residential real estate as an asset class going forward.
WeLive, a sleek dormitory for working professionals with free beer, arcade games in the laundry room and catered Sunday dinners, would spread around the world.
I marvel that anyone stupid enough to think the above was a viable investment model had enough capital to “invest” in this scam company.
2,000 WeWork employees – 13% of the workforce – are getting the ax. Gosh, I sure hope none of them levered up on debt to buy expensive houses and cars in anticipation of becoming IPO millionaires.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/15/wework-sack-staff-workers-adam-neumann
WeDon’tWork, WeStarve, WeHomeless.
+ WeTooLow
#WeAreSorry
https://youtu.be/15HTd4Um1m4
Axed WeWork employees can always apply for seasonal department store jobs in time for the Christmas “rush.” They might get into fistfights in the hiring line, since department stores won’t be needing nearly as much temporary help this holiday season. In our oligarch-looted economy, tapped-out debt donkeys won’t be able to afford very many purchases on their maxed-out credit cards as the retail apocalypse belies the Fed’s rosy economic assessments and the “Everything is Awesome!” cheerleading by Wall Street’s touts and shills in the financial media.
https://www.marketwatch.com/investing/stock/aeo?mod=mw_latestnews
What happens when ‘Muricans have to pay back the equity they borrowed from their shacks, when the letters’ valuations are cratering?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cash-out-refi-fever-which-places-america-are-taking-most-mortgage-debt
Yet no one will ever use the sweet equity to pay off their student loans or pre pay their kids tuition, then go into foreclosure
“…or pre pay their kids tuition…”
Like a 529 plan?
“In 2019, about 19% of U.S. households with six-figure incomes rented their homes, up from about 12% in 2006, according to a Wall Street Journal analysis of Census Bureau data that adjusted the incomes for inflation.”
Sounds like the smart money is increasingly leaning towards renting. And I’m pretty sure this six figure income renter subpopulation votes at higher rates than underwater homeowner households. Hopefully politicians will soon stop with the policies that dump helicopter drops of cash on homeowners while leaving renters out in the cold.
Hopefully politicians will soon stop with the policies that dump helicopter drops of cash on homeowners while leaving renters out in the cold.
Sadly I’ve not seen any politicians offering an alternative. Have you?
No. But despite my ursine constitution, I am surprisingly optimistic.
This statistic is, by definition, not inflation adjusted.
Sounds like the smart money is increasingly leaning towards renting.
The smart money bought after the 2008-2009 crash.
The smart money bought after the 2008-2009 crash.
Depends on your definition of smart. Those with inside Fed connections definitely did. Those with really high risk tolerance probably did. The smart money looking for less risk waited and missed out…again. You could argue that they weren’t really smart then, but I would argue steamroller tolerance isn’t smart either.
Yeah, it was probably better to say “the lucky money bought in 2008-2009”.
If President Goldman Sachs hadn’t been elected, housing prices might have taken a very different trajectory. In SV, housing prices never got back down to reasonable; I’ll just note that now I’m seeing lots of “Price Reduced” signs.
Yeah, it was probably better to say “the lucky money bought in 2008-2009”.
Fair point. Hindsight is 20/20 and all that. But in retrospect the purchasers after The Great Recession seem to have done very, very well.
But in retrospect the purchasers after The Great Recession seem to have done very, very well.
Correct. And the cautious did not. I suspect that’s not coincidence…I think it was used to teach the masses to never ever bet against the Fed no matter what their eyes tell them. Always buy the dip.
Carl. I don’t think it’s repeatable. At least for the SFBA, many of the conditions (huge influx of VC money, especially from SoftBank, plus huge influx of Chinese money, low rates & easy money from QE) aren’t likely to be repeated (QE maybe, the others no). And, the new SALT limitations won’t help RE prices, either.
About the only big hype now is “AI”/ML/Self-Driving cars, and even that’s starting to die down (especially self-driving cars).
I don’t think it’s repeatable.
I hope not. But I think they want everyone to think and assume that it is. Shearing is a lot easier when the sheep trust you to be gentle. Even if you plan to eat them eventually.
the 2008-2009 crash
As we learned here, that “crash” never was allowed to go anywhere near norms, much less below. If this next one gets out of control, those smart guys will look pretty busted.
Can the world find something an order of magnitude bigger than the China Debt Miracle to save the speculators this time?
“Cash Out” Refi Fever: Which Places In America Are Taking On The Most Mortgage Debt?
https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/cash-out-refi-fever-which-places-america-are-taking-most-mortgage-debt
It looks like more people are cashing out, but they are taking out less cash. They certainly aren’t cashing out equity like 2005… probably because there’s a lot less equity to cash out.
Actually oxide I think the amount of equity has hit an all time high.
‘The price appreciation can’t go on forever,’
You would be amazed by how many San Diegans would disagree with this guy. Everyone I talk with is 100% cock sure that there is never a bad time to buy a home in San Diego, since real estate always goes up here, as it always has and always will.
This is what my father believes, hence his new house in So. Cal. Granted, a 10-30% correction wouldn’t hurt him much. He just wanted a house on the beach, so that is what he got.
“He just wanted a house on the beach, so that is what he got.”
Impressive. Now if he is living with a hottie that can pack a mean blunt then I’ll be doubly impressed.
His current girlfriend is at least older than I am, but only by a year or so.
He’s living well.
Is it a safe bet that the stock market will only go up from here, given the booming economy with no clouds on the horizon whatever?
World Economy
IMF says trade war will cut global growth to lowest since financial crisis a decade ago
Published Tue, Oct 15 20199:07 AM EDT
Updated Tue, Oct 15 20199:21 AM EDT
Reuters
Key Points
– The U.S.-China trade war will cut 2019 global growth to its slowest pace since the 2008-2009 financial crisis, the International Monetary Fund warned.
– The organization added the outlook could darken considerably if trade tensions remain unresolved.
– The World Economic Outlook report spells out in sharp detail the economic difficulties caused by the U.S.-China tariffs, including direct costs, market turmoil, reduced investment and lower productivity due to supply chain disruptions.
…
Economics
The Recession Train Has Left the Station
A minor trade-war truce, if it even exists, won’t save the economy.
By Mark Gongloff
October 14, 2019, 1:28 PM PDT
…
Economy
China’s appetite for steel softens as trade war hits home
Domestic production hiked to prop up economy, risking global glut
AZUSA KAWAKAMI, Nikkei staff writer
October 16, 2019 11:52 JST
Energy
Oil falls 1.5% on China data, trade war jitters
Published Tue, Oct 15 20195:14 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Oct 15 2019 2:55 PM EDT
Whom fell 1$t? London or New York?
(How did the hundreds of Millions of Chinese noodle cookers make it out alive?)
The Wall Street Crash of 1929, also known as the Stock Market Crash of 1929 or the Great Crash, was a major stock market crash that occurred in late October 1929. It started on October 24 (“Black Thursday”) and continued until October 29, 1929 (“Black Tuesday”), when $hare price$ on the New York Stock Exchange collap$ed.
It was the most deva$tating $tock market cra$h in the hi$tory of the United $tates, when taking into consideration the full extent and duration of its after effect$. The crash, which followed the London Stock Exchange’s crash of $eptember, signaled the beginning of the 12-year Great Depre$$ion that affected all We$tern indu$trialized countrie$
foot note$:
China has been the world’s most populous nation for many centuries. When China took its first post-1949 census in 1953, the population stood at 583 million; by the fifth census in 2000, the population had more than doubled, reaching 1.2 billion.
Current Population: 1,403,500,365 (2016 data) (1$t)
” …given the booming economy with no cloud$ on the horizon whatever? ”
This too will pa$$!
https://www.allposters.com/-sp/It-s-true-Caesar-Rome-is-declining-but-I-expect-it-to-pick-up-in-the-n-New-Yorker-Cartoon-Posters_i9165648_.htm?UPI=PGQ00M0&PODConfigID=8419449&sOrigID=169339
Fed’s Bullard says ignoring the Treasury yield curve has burned him in the past
By Steve Goldstein
Published: Oct 15, 2019 8:35 a.m. ET
St. Louis Fed president makes case for more interest rate cuts
Reuters
St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard speaks at a public lecture in Singapore October 8, 2018.
There are a lot of valid reasons why the inversion of the U.S. Treasury yield curve — that is, the yield of short-term bonds being higher than that of longer-term securities — isn’t a sign of economic worries.
But count James Bullard, president of the St. Louis Federal Reserve, as not one to ignore the yield curve’s predictive powers.
Elga Bartsch, head of macro research at BlackRock, asked Bullard whether in an era of rapidly falling natural interest rate estimates and a global savings glut, the yield curve still carries the same significance.
Bullard, at a conference on monetary and financial policy in London, replied that he was burned twice as a Fed staffer in the 2000s on trying to dismiss the predictive powers of the yield curve. He recalled a speech in 2006 from then Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke who also minimized the curve’s predictive powers.
“The idea has always been to downplay this issue,” Bullard said. “If you want to ignore the signal, you should say, okay, but I’m ignoring it with open eyes.”
The yield on the 10-year (TMUBMUSD10Y, -1.92%) is currently a bit higher than the 2-year (TMUBMUSD02Y, -2.01%), at 1.73% versus 1.59%. Earlier in the year, the 2-year yield was higher than the 10-year.
Bullard, who wanted a half percentage point rate cut in September, continued to press the case for easier policy.
“Insurance rate cuts may help re-center inflation and inflation expectations at the 2% target sooner than otherwise,” he said.
…
In Fed we trust
U.S. stock market is overvalued, IMF says
By Greg Robb
Published: Oct 16, 2019 8:30 a.m. ET
Belief in Fed rescue is allowing investors to ignore tensions over international trade policy – International Monetary Fund
…
“And as WeWork is rocked by turmoil, the company has put on the back burner any new leases, meaning hundreds of thousands of square feet it was considering in Seattle could be up for grabs.”
Nothing like a tsunami tide of new supply to bring commercial rents back down to Earth!
“Homes that are priced over market value tend to sit on the market longer, which can result in them selling for less than if they had originally been priced to market. Nearly 20% of homes that sold in the West in Q3 2019 were on the market for at least 90 days, and sold at an average discount of 5.2%, compared to 1.9% for the overall region.”
It makes perfect sense that overpricing in a declining market will result in larger discounts, both because it is a longer way down from the wishing price to market value, and because market value has a longer time to fall due to the increased time an overpriced home will sit on the market.
Sell now, or get priced in forever.
“$adly I’ve not seen any politicians offering an alternative. Have you?”
Is the Home$tead Act still available?
No. The Home$tead Act was officially repealed by the 1976 Federal Land Policy and Management Act, though a ten-year extension allowed homesteading in Alaska until 1986. … In all, the {Evil Federal} government di$tributed over 270 million acres of land in 30 states under the Home$tead Act.
$ad.
‘A county spokeswoman emailed 7News that the condo president, “…told staff that this apartment was recently acquired through foreclosure and is being put up for sale, and that [he] would have it boarded up and cleaned by this week.”
https://wsvn.com/news/investigations/residents-say-sewage-trash-and-neglect-make-their-miami-dade-condo-complex-uninhabitable/
I would give this low income commune 6 months after a “renovation” to transform right back into its current state.
Kenya shopping malls post huge losses as rents fall, tenants quit
Shopping malls are posting huge losses as ongoing supply glut compels landlords to cut rents.
https://www.constructionkenya.com/7419/kenya-mall-business/
Arlington, VA Rental Rates Crater 12% YOY As Washington DC Housing Prices Tank
https://www.zillow.com/arlington-va-22209/home-values/
*Select price from dropdown menu on rental chart
So I think the way the Dems are going in the next debate Bernie is going to propose outlawing billionaires, Liz is going to forgive all debt with the government paying for it, Beto will ban and confiscate all sharp objects in homes, Yang will raise the GMi to $5000 a month and throw in a free sex bot and Biden will outlaw aging because it hurts people and has clearly taken a toll on him.
Sadly, you cannot legislate your way to liberty.
I thought the adoption of QE-lite was supposed to fix the repo market issues?
Funding market strains resurface as repo rates stay elevated
By Sunny Oh
Published: Oct 16, 2019 9:44 a.m. ET
Strains in short-term lending markets popped up again on Wednesday as the cost of borrowing funds overnight in return for high-quality collateral, or the repo rate, shot up on Wednesday. Hedge funds and banks use the repo market to finance their balance sheets and trading positions. The overnight repo rate spiked as high as 2.26%, according to one estimate. This compared with the effective fed funds rate, which stood at 1.90% on Oct. 15. The repo rate usually closely tracks the central bank’s benchmark interest rate as they both are considered sources of short-term borrowing.
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