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After A Period Of Buying, Buying, Buying, They’re All Looking For An Increase In Their Money And Not Getting It

A report from Bloomberg. “Owners of San Francisco’s office towers, shopping centers, hotels and homes are flooding the county with appeals to slash their property assessments — and tax payments — as real estate prices sink in the beleaguered city. A recognition by assessors that property values have plunged only adds fuel to a potential doom loop of disinvestment, where indebted owners walk away from buildings rather than pour money into assets that are worth less than they paid. The median San Francisco home price sank 16% in June from a year earlier, and residential sales volume dropped almost 17%, according to the California Association of Realtors. ‘San Francisco is clearly in the first inning’ of this price downturn, said Michael Covarrubias, chief executive officer of San Francisco-based developer TMG Partners.”

“San Francisco is far from alone as landlords across the country grapple with shifts in real estate demand and rising interest rates that have sent building prices tumbling. Assessment appeals have also risen in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. Offices in New York may lose an estimated 44% of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work, according to a joint study from researchers at New York University and Columbia University.”

The Dallas Morning News in Texas. “Lower construction costs and discounted prices have made newly built homes less expensive than existing ones, a historic anomaly. The median price of a new home in Dallas-Fort Worth has fallen 6% from about $423,000 in June 2022 to $398,000 in June 2023, according to Dallas housing consultant Residential Strategies. Existing home prices also briefly surpassed new home prices in June 2022, but before then, such an inversion had never been recorded. A year ago, new homes represented less than a third of all homes sold in the Dallas-Fort Worth area. As of June, they represented almost 38%, according to Residential Strategies. Builders may offer incentives such as discounts and buying down mortgage rates, which could lure buyers who otherwise would have purchased an existing home.”

CBS Minnesota. “Some local housing prices are trending lower. So is it time for buyers to get excited? Realtor Brian Parker says supply and demand is still an issue for buyers. What is happening is some buyers are seeing the prices of homes decrease. ‘New ones coming on the market and they’re pricing it too high to begin with. They’re assuming, ‘OK, everybody’s paying [$30,000, $40,000] over list price.’ Well, a list price nowadays is more like a reserve. That’s where we’re starting. And if you listen to your realtor and price it at the right number, you will get [a higher price],’ Parker said. ‘But if you start [with a higher price], people are thinking, ‘I’m not gonna go that high, that’s about the most I would do.’ So then it sits, and then they have to reduce.’ Some say this is a swing in the right direction, but many realtors are cautious. ‘So now the attitude on the other end is prices are dropping. No, they’re going to what they should have been in the first place,’ he said.”

The Real Deal. “In South Florida, developers are attempting more condo buyouts and terminations from Brickell and Miami Beach up to Fort Lauderdale and West Palm Beach. But lately deals have been falling apart, or delayed, due to a combination of factors including high interest rates and construction costs, difficulty securing enough support from owners and pullback from lenders and equity partners. ‘There’s no doubt that the real estate market, as red-hot as it is in South Florida, we’re not as red-hot as we were last February or March,’ attorney Jose Rodriguez, of Rennert Vogel Mandler & Rodriguez, said.”

From Better Dwelling. “Canada’s new housing minister has only been in office for a few days, and already stumbled. In a Bloomberg Interview, Minister Sean Fraser pledged to make housing more affordable without lowering prices. He reiterated the housing-is-an-investment mindset, before dropping suggestions that would reinforce higher prices. Great news for investors. Not fantastic if you pay taxes, or you need affordable housing. ‘Our goal is not to decrease the value of their home,’ MP Fraser told Bloomberg. ‘Our goal is to build more units that are at a price that other people, who don’t currently have their needs met, can afford.'”

“Details on how he would lower and not lower home prices at the same time were scarce. However, he did mention he would increase supply, incentives, and development speed. It’s a narrative repeated since 2015, and made Canada the affordable market it is today. Kidding! It’s nonsense, so let’s take a dive into how these strategies work.”

The Journal. “It may be hard to believe, but even with the average rent it charges steadily creeping towards €2,000, Ireland’s largest private landlord is struggling. Owning almost 4,000 homes, Ires Reit is one of the biggest players in Irish property. So why is Ires one of the worst-performing stocks in the Irish market, and in the grips of a corporate crisis? Formed in 2014 by Capreit (the Canadian Apartment Properties Real Estate Investment Trust), Ires seemingly perfectly timed its launch as one of the first real estate investment trusts in Ireland. The idea was for the company to be at the forefront of ‘professionalising’ the rental sector, which at the time was dominated by small landlords who owned just one or two homes.”

“It was also looking to take advantage of a recovering market, with prices still low following the financial crisis, but starting to rise again. Buying up land and apartment blocks relatively cheaply, many of which were from the State’s ‘bad bank’ Nama, Ires was well-placed to generate steady returns for backers. The vast majority of properties it owns are apartments in areas slightly outside the centre of Dublin which are popular with city commuters, such as Sandyford and Tallaght.”

“Around 2019 was Ires’s peak. The firm raised more than €134 million from backers in a move to buy up hundreds of apartments, as investors were keen to get into Irish property amid a backdrop of surging prices. The biggest worry about Ires is its exposure to interest rates, which hits it a few ways. First off, it raises the company’s borrowing costs. There was some criticism after the company only closed a deal on an important €275 million credit facility in December, locking in higher repayments than if it had acted sooner.”

“But more importantly, by limiting how much people can borrow, there is a knock-on impact on property. In previous years, the paper value of Ires’s properties consistently rose. Now it’s going the other way, with the firm writing down the value of its assets just a few months ago. Last week it reached a deal to sell almost 200 west Dublin apartments to the Tuath Housing Agency for €72 million and is looking at offloading further assets. Essentially, the argument is the company’s management acted too slowly and is now selling too cheaply because it has little choice.”

Stuff New Zealand. “Tasman recorded the largest drop in property prices in the country in July, new figures show. The latest property report from REINZ, released on Tuesday, showed prices in Tasman district dropped 11.3% in July 2023, compared to July 2022. That compares to a national average price drop of 4.2%, and a drop of 8.8% in Auckland. Nelson prices fell 7.6%. Meanwhile, houses in the top of the south are also taking longer to sell: up to 80 days for Tasman in July the longest for a July since 2001, and up from 52 a year ago. Nelson’s was at 60 days, compared to 56 in 2022.”

“REINZ chief executive Jen Baird said some vendors were dropping their prices while others ‘continued to hold out in the hopes of achieving their original sales price.’ RE/MAX Elite owner Kate Bradley said Tasman’s figures were driven by a glut of houses in areas like Berryfields in Richmond. After a period of people ‘racing into Berryfields and buying, buying, buying,’ they were now seeing people wanting to move on. They’re all looking for an increase in their money and not getting it.'”

“While not long ago you’d be looking at $1 million to buy in the popular subdivision now it was more like $850,000, she said. Higher interest rates and people not able to afford repayments would also have an impact on the market in coming months. ‘There’s going to be a bit of carnage in September, October. We haven’t seen the worst of that yet – we haven’t seen mortgagee sales, we haven’t seen desperation.'”

The Globe and Mail. “Next month, millions of new graduates are due to enter China’s toughest job market in decades, further driving up already record-high youth unemployment. Just how much won’t be known, however: officials say they will no longer publish jobless data for 16 to 24-year-olds, citing a ‘constantly developing and changing’ economy. The announcement was met with derision online and is bound to raise new questions about the reliability of Chinese government statistics as the world’s second largest economy struggles to recover from the COVID pandemic. ‘If you close your eyes then it doesn’t exist,’ read one widely-shared comment on Weibo, a Twitter-like service.”

“The government’s response has so far been limited, without the major stimulus measures that some have hoped to see. On Tuesday, China’s central bank cut rates in an attempt to encourage lending, but analysts at the the Japanese bank Nomura said this would be of ‘limited help.’ ‘The Chinese economy is faced with an imminent downward spiral with the worst yet to come,’ they warned.”

“Over the last four years, youth unemployment has more than doubled, a result of both COVID restrictions and crackdowns on the technology and education sectors, which employed large numbers of graduates. In June, joblessness among 16 to 24-year-olds hit a record 21.3 percent. But even that was likely an underestimation, as it only includes people actively seeking work and does not take into account young people in rural areas.”

“In an article for Chinese financial publication Caixin, that was later censored, Peking University economics professor Zhang Dandan said research she has done suggested the true unemployment rate could be closer to 50 percent in parts of the country. Many young people are pursuing advanced degrees to put off looking for work, while others are leaning on their parents for help, including being paid to be ‘full-time children.'”

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This Post Has 144 Comments

  1. ‘officials say they will no longer publish jobless data for 16 to 24-year-olds, citing a ‘constantly developing and changing’ economy. The announcement was met with derision online and is bound to raise new questions about the reliability of Chinese government statistics’

    It’s kinda funny to see the globalist scum media pounce on this as banana republic, when they’re been censoring left and right for years even on life and death issues.

    1. “research she has done suggested the true unemployment rate could be closer to 50 percent in parts of the country”

      What to do with all these useless young people? Here in USA the government wants to kill them all with fentanyl. In China they will send them to war.

      1. my 2 local grocery stores have at least 6 handicapped people bagging groceries and not a single high school kid.

        1. Probably because the high school kids have a huge absenteeism issue.

          A coworker who lives in Highlands Ranch ($300K household income) tells me that her only daughter, who is in high school, is a “monster” and she doesn’t know what to do with her. And they are an Asian family.

          1. I know someone from SE Asia who sent their child back there to live. He came back and turned out to be the most successful child. Seeing how the third world works tends to wake spoiled kids up.

        2. My son couldn’t get a summer job at the local supermarket here (FL), even though he has experience from when we lived in PA. They weren’t interested in training seasonal employees. Not sure how much training he would have needed to stock shelves, but ok. Point is, even if you do find a kid willing to work, sometimes they can’t get a job. Dumb. (He ended up getting a job as a barista at the Starbucks in Target with ZERO coffee making experience.)

          1. I have to say, I have not seen a teen working at the local King Soopers (Kroger) or Safeway in quite a long time.

    2. “including being paid to be ‘full-time children.’””

      What does this mean? I assume the kids are acting as caretakers/housekeepers to aging parents.

      2. ‘full-time children

        The opposite of Responsible Adult, as in being financially supported, housed and fed.

    1. “August cold front, 68 degrees here.”

      Here too.

      I think I will turn the thermostat up to 76 degrees for the day though.

    2. 68 degrees here

      The same here on Lake Ontario. Something big is changing at the end of the week here. 8 ft waves predicted for Friday. I’ll be heading inland before then.

    3. It was 76-degrees at 0500-hrs when I took Ruby for a walk. Here in the Columbia Basin today we have a forecast high of 103-degrees and a UV index of 8 or higher. It’s called, “Hot August Days!” And this is an El Niño year, so we should have a warm September too.

    4. We had a few nice cool days, mid 70’s or less. Unfortunately, it will be August again today.

    5. The sun didn’t come out here until July and this is the coolest August since we moved here in 2013. We have yet to hit triple digits.

  3. Not to distract from the topics at hand, but the 2020 election was stolen.

    81 million ballots, not 81 million votes.

  4. Its starting … But of course this gives the fed a huge excuse to change the 2% inflation target because higher interest rates for longer will hurt the banks/


    A Fitch Ratings analyst warned that the U.S. banking industry has inched closer to another source of turbulence — the risk of sweeping rating downgrades on dozens of U.S. banks that could even include the likes of JPMorgan Chase

    The ratings agency cut its assessment of the industry’s health in June, a move that analyst Chris Wolfe said went largely unnoticed because it didn’t trigger downgrades on banks.

    But another one-notch downgrade of the industry’s score, to A+ from AA-, would force Fitch to reevaluate ratings on each of the more than 70 U.S. banks it covers, Wolfe told CNBC in an exclusive interview at the firm’s New York headquarters.

    “If we were to move it to A+, then that would recalibrate all our financial measures and would probably translate into negative rating actions,” Wolfe said.

  9. ‘The Chinese economy is faced with an imminent downward spiral with the worst yet to come,’

    Where is AlbuquerqueDan when you need someone to put in an encouraging word about the Chinese economy?

    1. I always wondered why A-Dan turned into A China cheerleader so suddenly. I assumed he was either employed/paid by the Chinese company, or he found his own personal Bang Bang Fang Fang.

  10. “Our goal is not to decrease the value of their home,’ MP Fraser told Bloomberg. ‘Our goal is to build more units that are at a price that other people, who don’t currently have their needs met, can afford.’”

    What the…? I didn’t read the entire article, but how did this knucklehead become the minister of anything?

        1. That Pete’s gay doesn’t bother me. However, there are many other professional staffers with decades of practical experience who are overlooked.

          1. I despise Pete because he — or the Admin? –never appointed an Acting Secretary of Transportation* while Pete was out for months on chestfeeding leave. I’m sure it was deliberate. Meanwhile, container ships were languishing off the Port of Long Beach and druggies were hopping rail cars to loot Amazon boxes.

            —————-
            *That I know of — Wikipedia lists everyone who has served as DOT Secretary, even those who only acted for a few weeks. No actor since Feb 2, 2021 is listed.

          2. My point is he was given that job solely because he is gay. He has zero qualifications for the position

    2. I think the idea is to build a lot more affordable housing while leaving the price of current housing intact. The article goes on to talk about the price of concrete and illegal labor. I dunno, why can’t the gov build a ton of basic 1-2 bed apartments or 2-bed tiny townhomes? Those are pretty cheap to build. I’m also not against a rent subsidy if it comes with strings attached.

      2. Yes let’s bring back the Soviet style projects. Brutalist architecture is where it’s at!

  11. A reader sent these in:

    Powell watching Japan drop a 6% annualized GDP print (1.5% QoQ nominal) 10Y3M narrows to -124bps

    https://twitter.com/DonMiami3/status/1691254166063087616

    BREAKING: The United States has just sent another $200 million in aid to Ukraine. $200 million to Ukraine today and Maui doesn’t even get a comment. As American citizens in Lahaina, Maui suffer from the loss of life and property President Joe Biden has just sent $200M worth of artillery rounds, air defense munitions and other weapons to Ukraine. Nearly 100 people have been confirmed dead in the Maui fires, over 2000 structures have been destroyed and thousands have been displaced. I hope Biden had a great vacation.

    https://twitter.com/CollinRugg/status/1691122289000222720

    This has been happening for a long time in China. I took this pic on a drive outside of Kunming on my last trip to China in 2014 to visit Yunnan and Shangri-La. Tons of ghost cities even then.

    https://twitter.com/UrbanKaoboy/status/1690762932840484865

    This is why the resumption of student loan repayments could really crimp overall consumer spending. “When student loan payments resume, 56% of borrowers say they’ll have to choose between their debt and buying groceries”

    https://twitter.com/menlobear/status/1691279604210909184

    One major difference between this period of Quantitative Tightening (QT) and 2017-2019 QT: Last time around, commercial banks were adding to their mortgage-backed securities (MBS) portfolio as the Fed was reducing. Now, banks and Fed are both reducing at same time.

    https://twitter.com/JackFarley96/status/1691175395456921600

    CHINA NBS OFFICIAL FU: CHINA’S PROPERTY COMPANIES’ DIFFICULTIES ARE ONLY TEMPORARY.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1691276987883479042

    CHINA STATS BUREAU SPOKESMAN: THERE IS NO DEFLATION IN CHINA AND THAT THERE WILL BE NO DEFLATION IN THE FUTURE.

    https://twitter.com/financialjuice/status/1691277260395823104

    Great video walking thru the pricing and income. Explains why the last 4 years have been a huge change in the housing market.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1691280922358738944

    Biden in Hawaii right now:

    https://twitter.com/MemeChad101/status/1691244389148827648

    China’s second-largest developer Country Garden with annual revenues of more than $70 billion, is on the verge of collapse. The company’s 8% bonds due in 2024 are trading at a paltry 9 cents, signalling massive losses for the bondholders. The yield is skyrocketing, meaning nobody expects it to be paid. China’s property meltdown continues 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1691116823826030592

    30 year mortgage rates are inching above 8% in many states. Mortgage refi market is in a coma. Banks are laying off many of the people in their mortgage divisions. Housing market is freezing up. Everything is fine 🔥🔥🔥

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1691079618902515713

    “Half my paycheque goes to groceries alone” 🚨🚨🚨 Canadian housing and basic things like groceries are unaffordable.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1690937346533834752

    Cartoon from 2008 during the last bubble. Will history repeat?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1690857031844904960

    Attempting to feed a bear McDonalds Big Mac 😮 What is in there that animals refuse to eat?

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1690818617472933889

    In 1989 a Chicago police office salary could afford this 4 bedroom 5 bathroom house. Now worth close to $1 million with an estimated payment of $6700, the average police officer in this area now makes $65k per year 🚨🚨🚨

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1690581564697063424

    “Infinity mortgages” you mortgage balance goes up as interest rates increase. They are making people debt slaves forever. (details below and link)

    Quote:
    If rates go up, the monthly payments stay the same but the amortization period — the length of time it takes to pay off the entire mortgage — automatically rises.

    When the Bank of Canada started hiking rates in March 2022, it caught everyone off guard. Chalmers watched in horror as the rate on his mortgage quickly shot up close to 6.2 per cent. He hit his trigger rate — when only interest is paid on the mortgage — multiple times. So rather than shrinking each month as he makes his payment, his mortgage balance is growing, and so is the length of his mortgage.

    Chalmers’ dream home has turned into a nightmare, as it has for thousands of Canadian homeowners who were told that rates would remain stable, only to be hit by one of the most aggressive interest rate hike cycles in Canadian history.

    https://twitter.com/WallStreetSilv/status/1690443678085427200

    BREAKING: S&P recorded 64 corporate bankruptcy filings in July 2023. This is the largest monthly total since March and more filings than in any single month in 2021 or 2022. We have already seen more bankruptcies in the 7 months of 2023 than the entire 2022. Corporations are feeling the pain of higher rates.

    https://twitter.com/KobeissiLetter/status/1691257459002724353

    Tell me you’re ready for prison without telling me you’re ready for prison

    https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1691241755046555649

    NYC Landlord: “Apartment is move-in ready with deep clean and fresh coat of paint” The apartment:

    https://twitter.com/EnronChairman/status/1690762957486227457

    More woes out of #China, big risk off overnight. Homebuilders:
    Country Garden -16% after suspending a bond from trading
    China Jinmao Holdings -7% after reporting sharp drop in profit. Macro:
    July new bank loans tumbled 89% (!) mom – lowest level of loans since 2009

    https://twitter.com/CNBCJou/status/1690970905969639424

    New Vehicle availability by major brand 👇 If this continues, we’re all going to be rolling around in Chrysler Pacificas in no time.

    https://twitter.com/GuyDealership/status/1691133848124379146

    Where is the upside if a stock is already trading at 45 price to sales ratio? Asking for a friend. $NVDA

    https://twitter.com/MichaelAArouet/status/1689912279645421568

    1. “$200 million to Ukraine today and Maui doesn’t even get a comment”

      Must be one of those “not my concern” kind of things that Mike Pence was talking about.

      You’ll never be seen as anything more than cattle tax slaves to these globalists.

      1. “$200 million to Ukraine today and Maui doesn’t even get a comment”

        Biden Inc. doesn’t do business in Maui.

    3. “CHINA STATS BUREAU SPOKESMAN: THERE IS NO DEFLATION IN CHINA AND THAT THERE WILL BE NO DEFLATION IN THE FUTURE.”

      Will the grand pooh bear prohibit deflation reporting?

  12. Biden Set to Announce Climate Lockdowns, Rationing of Energy & Food

    by Ben Warren
    August 15th 2023, 8:28 am

    The Biden administration’s move to shut down the country is imminent according to insiders and experts who are all reporting a recent & uniform surge of climate alarmism from the mainstream media, top Democrats, the United Nations, and environmental groups.

    “The signs are there,” said the Heartland Institute, while citing the White House’s cooperation with the U.N. to create a “climate emergency” webpage.

    “The science is clear,” reads the new U.N. page. “The world is in a state of climate emergency, and we need to shift into emergency gear.“

    The page goes on to slam “humanity’s burning of fossil fuels” and even calls for “societal change.”

    Additionally, energy industry insiders have raised the alarm the White House will soon declare a “climate emergency” in order to implement gas rationing, electricity restrictions, limits on air travel, and other edicts seen during the Covid “pandemic.”

    “They’re leaning to that direction,” said U.S. Oil and Gas Association President Tim Stewart to Just the News last month. “If you grant the president’s emergency powers to declare a climate emergency, [it will be] just like Covid.”

    Stewart went on to say Biden’s emergency declaration would give the president “vast and unchecked authority to shut down everything from communications to infrastructure.”

    https://www.infowars.com/

    1. If the regime of the Unelected Occupant attempts this, that would be sufficient justification for civil war or revolution 🔥

    2. Ok, so Im seeing a number of articles talking about Biden set to declare a “Climate Emergency” next week with possible shutdowns and restrictions to follow.
      IMHO, I have never seen anything so ridiculous in my life.
      They are talking about heat waves and water shortages in England. Of course Maui fires is being blamed on Climate Change.
      Oh, we got to shut down fossil fuels immediately. Think about the timing of this so-called called emergency.
      Like Christine Anderson said in essence, do not comply with these narratives and even rebel.
      Its just gone beyond nuts in what they say are the solutions to the now highly disputed Climate Change, that they say is settled science.
      Unbelievable!

      2. Agree!

        Let’s hope DeSantis shifts away from his swampland aspirations to helping FL secede.

        My guess is the tribe owns him now so we should be seeing diminishing acts of patriotism from the man.

    3. I am curious about how rationing will be implemented. I seem to recall that it took months to get the first stimmie checks out the door and the IRS already had all the information they needed.. They are too incompetent to setup a systemwide rationing system.

      1. The DNC will be directing all resources to citizens of proven worth. By limiting YOUR use of them they can say they are rationing while actually using more for themselves. Don’t worry, no one will hear your complaints as the censorship apparatus is already in place. Embrace the coup.

      2. So what if mistakes end up destroying tens of millions of lives and killing a few million people? You have to break a few eggs to make an omelet.

      3. “how rationing will be implemented”

        Easy peasy — with programmable CBDCs. You load up your cart with food but your money account will only pay for what’s allowed.

        And I truly hope that Biden and the Democrats actually try to do this. See how far they make it down the road.

    4. The funny part is we are pumping a record amount of oil. It’s actually more than when trump was in office. We should pass 12.9 million barrels which will be a record….also more than any country in the planet.

  13. Any thoughts on why Uncle Warren is piling into housing at the onset of an epic housing bust? Perhaps he is anticipating future Fed bailouts to prop up prices, following Ben Bernanke’s precedent.

    1. Warren Buffett just made a big bet on the U.S. housing market
      Berkshire Hathaway disclosed its investments in three major U.S. homebuilders: D.R. Horton, Lennar, and NVR.
      BY LANCE LAMBERT
      August 15, 2023 12:00 AM EDT
      Berkshire Hathaway just loaded up on homebuilder stock. Getty Images

      On Monday, Berkshire Hathaway disclosed to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission that it had made investments in three major U.S. homebuilders: D.R. Horton (No. 120 on the Fortune 500) , Lennar (No. 119 on the Fortune 500), and NVR (No. 376 on the Fortune 500).

      In total, Berkshire Hathaway bought 5,969,714 shares of D.R. Horton, 152,572 shares of Lennar, and 11,112 shares of NVR. Those shares are worth over $800 million—with more than $700 million of it being in D.R. Horton.

      While Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett did not publicly state the motive behind this investment, these stock purchases do coincide with a remarkable surge in U.S. homebuilder stocks.

      This year has witnessed an impressive performance in the homebuilder sector, with D.R. Horton and Lennar up 38.0% and 36.2%, respectively, year-to-date. Not too far behind is NVR, which is up 33.5% this year. For comparison the S&P 500 Index is up 16.3% this year.

      The driving force behind this growth can be attributed to the fact that new home sales in 2023 have rebounded somewhat, following the sharp pullback that took place amidst last year’s mortgage rate shock-induced housing slump.

      This new construction improvement has translated into new home sales climbing 23.8% year-over-year in June 2023. That said, new home sales are still 32.2% below the cycle’s peak which occurred at the height of the pandemic housing frenzy in August 2020.
      …
      https://fortune.com/2023/08/15/housing-market-warren-buffett-loads-up-on-homebuilder-stocks-dr-horton-lennar-nvr/

      2. 1. Homebuilders are able to undercut the prices of sellers and still make a decent profit
        2. Most owners are trapped in their homes and can’t sell without bringing money to the table. The few sales will be forced by divorce, job loss, death, illness
        3. Open borders influx of tens of millions of migrants and the government will subsidize their homes
        4. Yes, inflation bomb incoming when the banking system implodes

        1. I can see #1. Savvy builders know how to play that game. There is a window at the beginning of a bust, before it goes mainstream, that builders can undercut the market and move product. They got to endure a lot of bitching and moaning from previous phases as they become public enemy number one, but it works. And man is it beautiful what it does for home values. Look out below. But I’d temporarily invest in a builder if I knew that was their plan.

        2. when the banking system implodes

          That would be because of debt defaults, which isn’t inflation at all.

          1. I think the idea was that Quantitative Easing would resume, leading to a restart of massive imflation.

          2. Reaction to debt defaults will make 2008 QE look like child’s play. The history of money has been to inflation until currency collapse. Remember what Helicopter Ben said.

        3. “…inflation bomb incoming…”

          I guess you aren’t convinced the Fed will succeed in regaining its 2% inflation target? Or that China’s deflation might prove contagious, like Covid did?

        4. Real Estate
          Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge over 7%
          Published Tue, Aug 15 2023 10:00 AM EDT
          Updated 5 Hours Ago
          Diana Olick

          KEY POINTS

          – Builder sentiment dropped 6 points to 50 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything over 50 is considered positive.

          – Mortgage rates are now holding solidly over 7%, hitting 7.24% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

          – The share of builders cutting prices rose to 25% in August from 22% in July.
          …
          https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2023/08/15/homebuilder-sentiment-drops-mortgage-rates-surge.html

        5. Does it seem like mortgage rates are racing towards 8%?

          With relitters and their minions lying and dessembling along the way?

          1. Personal Finance News
            Mortgage Rates
            Rates Jump for Every Mortgage Type
            Today’s Mortgage Rates & Trends – Aug. 14, 2023
            By Sabrina Karl
            Published August 14, 2023
            Mortgage Rates for Monday 08.14.23 on dark blue background with housing-related graphics
            Investopedia / Alice Morgan

            Rates across every mortgage type ended the week with a notable Friday climb. Not only that, but all but two of the increases were for double-digit basis points. The 30-year and 15-year averages each jumped about a quarter percentage point.

            The latest 30-year fixed-rate mortgage average is 7.57%. But rates vary widely across lenders, so it’s always wise to shop around for your best mortgage option and compare rates regularly, no matter what type of loan you’re in the market for.
            …
            https://www.investopedia.com/rates-jump-for-every-mortgage-type-7642970

          2. Surprise Surprise. More Long Term Highs
            By: Matthew Graham • Tue, Aug 15 2023, 3:37 PM

            Have you heard the one about higher mortgage rates? It’s not a joke, sadly. It’s just a thing that keeps happening. The week began with the average 30yr fixed rate inching into the highest territory since November 2022. There’s still some ground to cover before eclipsing those highs, but today’s rates moved another few inches in that direction.

            The average borrower may not notice much of a change considering our index is only higher by 0.02%. Not every lender changes their quoted terms in response to that level of movement, but the current state of rates has been a death by a thousand cuts.

            Today’s specific “cut” happened against an interesting backdrop. The bond market (which dictates day to day rate movement) was geared up to react to this morning’s Retail Sales data. In general, stronger data pushes rates higher and vice versa.

            Retail Sales crushed expectations, instantly forcing bonds to their worst levels since 2022. Less than 1 hour later, the market had more than recovered. This could be a sign that investors are increasingly starting to see value in the increasingly high yields in the bond market.
            …
            https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-08152023

    2. Easy: with the market in absolute lockdown, the only transactions will be for new homes. And with prices still very high compared to the cost, those guys make a killing right now. The longer the rates stay up, the more money they’ll make. It’s a perfect situation for builders. And they still make money even if they prices drop 30-40%. Warren knows it.

      1. That makes sense…so long as the economy doesn’t go into a recession, like it has pretty much every other time the yield curve inverted going back to WWII.

        In case of recession, look out below.

    1. At first I thought this was some kind of scam, but ALL of the real estate within a couple miles is $600K+ for anything with a yard. What is the justification for these prices? Rich retirees? Or just plain beach realty reality?

    1. The Nancy Pelosi Building. A fitting name.

      Mayor London Breed must be very pleased with herself.

    2. It is probably safe to assume that most government employees in SF are on drugs and have lots of cash so this isn’t very surprising. I imagine in a week or two we will see one of the first protests on WFH as they start experiencing withdrawal. They will spin it as a desire for communal work or some such.

      1. IIUC, you’re saying that the employees were topping up, so to speak, on the way in to the office building each morning? And that that’s why they will want to go back to the office? Interesting.

        And what’s going to happen now that Fentanyl and xylazine (zombie tranq) are now widespread in all the street drugs? Are SF employees going to have to narcan each other at their desks? As for xylazine, narcan doesn’t work on that at all.

        1. Have you seen the building in question? Here is a short video that is eye opening. Make sure to pause at around 1:38 and inspect the SF Federal Building. WTF is it?? It looks like it was made for dystopia. Looks like something you would find in N. Korea. More than a few employees in that building must be on something, right?

          https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9TnxrmgTBa0

          1. “It looks like it was made for dystopia.”

            The plaza around the building was fenced-off to keep the schitt out. But I agree regarding the building’s funky architecture; usually government buildings have symmetry, which connotes order.

  16. “Rationing”
    How do you like the Government now!
    These creeps, using fake bought off science , and manufactured attacks of bio-weapons have been infiltrating the systems for decades for this pre-planned attack to take over everything.
    They want control of the food supply and energy , being the best way to take control .I would not be surprised if rationing food would be bugs and fake food, and a bunch of stuff thats lacking in nutrition.
    And, if they lock down over Climate Change, they will no.doubt throw in some panademic attacks for good measure, if people comply.
    Information coming out that probably up to 30 million deaths from the jab and 2.5 billion injuries globally.
    They have been hyping up Climate Change recently in the fake Media, so I was expecting this.

    1. The wording on the listing is confusing. So, the $235K pays for two mobile homes and the half-acre lot? The lot is subdivided but all owned by the same family. According to the listing, “One unit is currently rented [on month-to-month no lease] and the other just became vacant.”

      Gossip time! 🤪 What a weird family situation. The only scenario I can think of is that a responsible family member owns the land and was loosely renting the two mobile homes to two moochy ne-er-do-well relatives. One renter left or died (the vacant unit) and the other is still there only on good graces. Responsible family member is fed up and wants to kick out the remaining renter, sell off the whole thing, and take the money and run. Cash-only as-is to avoid inspections and pesky questions. Also looking at the map, I’m surprised they’re on septic. The house behind it appears to be on public sewer.

      Meanwhile, the block is a mixture of old ranch-duplexes, a newish four-house rental community, a lot of dead cars, a run-down warehouse, more mini-trailer parks, and empty lots. This is a 30-minute walk to the Gulf beaches. Maybe that’s why the land is priced so high. They’re looking to gentrify the area?

      1. If they offered to GIVE that property to me along with a stack of cash to pay the property taxes and what not, I wouldn’t take the POS. Why would anyone choose to live there?

      2. Its more than a 30 minute walk to the beach, plus you would have to play frogger trying to get across all the traffic. 42 year old mobile homes are worth zero dollars, so its a vacant lot with two junk trailers to be removed. You can likely buy a waterfront lot on the bay for less than what they’re asking for that dirt.

    1. LIVE UPDATES
      Updated Tue, Aug 15 20232:56 PM EDT
      Dow falls nearly 300 points as banking sector concerns, weak China data overhang: Live updates
      Hakyung Kim
      Samantha Subin
      Traders work on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.
      NYSE

      Stocks fell Tuesday as concern over the state of the global economy — China in particular — and a decline in U.S. banks combined to pressure Wall Street.

      The Dow Jones Industrial Average
      slid 274 points, or 0.8%. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite pulled back by 0.8% and 0.7%, respectively.

      Financial stocks in the U.S. weakened Tuesday. Shares of JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Bank of America were lower by more than 2% after after Fitch warned it may have to downgrade credit rating dozens of banks, including JPMorgan Chase. Last week, Moody’s lowered its rating on 10 U.S. banks while putting other big institutions on a watchlist for potential downgrades.

      Regional banks also traded lower Tuesday, with the SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF trading down 3%. Shares fell after Minneapolis Federal Reserve President Neel Kashkari spoke in favor of “significantly further” capital regulation.

      “Right now it seems like things are quite stable,” Kashkari said in a Tuesday town hall meeting. “The risk is that if inflation is not completely under control, and that we have to raise rates further from here, to bring it down, that they might face more losses than they currently face today. And these pressures could flare up again in the future.”

      Investor sentiment also weakened globally after China reported disappointing economic data and its central bank made a surprise rate cut.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/14/stock-market-today-live-updates.html

      1. “…its central bank made a surprise rate cut.”

        Don’t stocks normally go up when cental banks cut interest rates?

        Exccept not in Japan, during its lost decade of deflation (1990-2000 and beyond).

        1. Authors in August: An American Ramble With Neil King Jr.
          13 mins ago
          The Motley Fool
          Dollar Finds Support on Higher Bond Yields and Weak Stocks
          Reasons to Still Believe In This New Bull Market
          Contributor
          Richard Saintvilus
          Published
          Aug 14, 2023 7:40AM EDT
          Wall Street Bull statue in Manhattan
          Credit: Carlo Allegri / Reuters –

          The bear market is over. That’s without question. But investors aren’t feeling all warm and fuzzy about the new bull market. The past several weeks might have produced record-breaking heat in terms of climate temperature, but stocks have cooled off quite a bit with both the S&P 500 index and the Nasdaq Composite suffering losses in two straight weeks.

          Market focus has centered on the economy’s trajectory and the Federal Reserve’s role in managing inflation to prevent a recession. The July Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in softer than anticipated, with a year-over-year increase of 3.2%, below the estimated 3.3%. However, the producer price index (PPI), which tracks wholesale prices for raw goods, exceeded expectations with a 0.3% month-over-month increase.
          …
          https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/reasons-to-still-believe-in-this-new-bull-market

        2. Yahoo Finance
          Stocks sink as China woes spark global sell-off: Stock market news today
          Brett LoGiurato and Alexandra Canal
          Tue, August 15, 2023 at 2:02 PM MDT·1 min read
          In this article:

          US stocks were part of a global sell-off Tuesday as a retail-heavy week began by showing continued consumer resilience in the US, but China painted a grim picture for the world’s second-largest economy.

          The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell 1% as bank shares tumbled amid the prospect of stricter oversight. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) fell about 1.2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) slipped 1.1%. The moves added pressure to a glum August for stocks after the indexes had a rebound day on Monday, with the Nasdaq rising over 1%.
          …
          https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stocks-sink-as-china-woes-spark-global-sell-off-stock-market-news-today-200121136.html

          1. “China painted a grim picture for the world’s second-largest economy.”

            Don’t you wish AlbuquerqueDan were around to offer his assurances that China’s next bull market is just around the corner?

    2. Stock market today: Asia shares decline as faltering Chinese economy sets off global slide
      By YURI KAGEYAMA
      Updated 8:21 PM PDT, August 15, 2023

      TOKYO (AP) — Asian shares declined Wednesday amid worries over discouraging data on China, as well as over the future of the U.S. economy.

      Japan’s benchmark Nikkei 225 dropped 1.1% in morning trading to 31,879.84. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 dove 1.4% to 7,204.00. South Korea’s Kospi dipped 1.2% to 2,539.48. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng slipped 1.2% to 18,364.11, and the Shanghai Composite lost 0.7% to 3,153.43.

      New Zealand’s central bank left its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 5.5% on Wednesday. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s monetary policy committee said the headline inflation rate had declined, but core inflation remained too high. The committee said it would take a prolonged period of subdued spending to reduce inflation pressure. The New Zealand dollar was little changed on the news, trading at around U.S. $0.6.
      …
      https://apnews.com/article/stock-markets-inflation-interest-rates-91d49aa8ec1549baa749e8fe541f3e6c

    3. FXStreet
      Luca Santos
      ACY Securities
      The Dollar’s still got the groove
      ANALYSIS | 08/16/2023 02:29:30 GMT

      The combination of US yields at their highs and some intense pressure on emerging market currencies are maintaining the US dollar’s status as a worthy safe haven. Today’s focus will be on whether the Chinese renminbi falls any further after the surprise rate cut yesterday. Expect the dollar to stay bid.

      Strong US retail sales should help

      The dollar pushed ahead around 0.7% yesterday as pressure on EM currencies around the world encouraged more dollar demand. Very much in focus remains China’s renminbi (CNY), which hit a new low overnight after the People’s Bank of China surprised with a 15bp rate cut in its Medium-Term Lending Facility. USD/CNH (the liquid offshore pair) has pushed up to a new high for the year above 7.30 and has its sights set on last October’s high at 7.3750. I mention the renminbi so much in this dollar section since weakness drags most of the Asian FX complex with it and provides a bullish undercurrent to the dollar across the board.

      Nonetheless, a rate cut from China is a stimulus and perhaps means that some of the commodity currencies do not have to fall as much. The rate cut also provides a tailwind to renminbi-funded carry trades. In terms of what comes next from China, we could possibly see a cut in the required reserve ratio (RRR) on FX deposits – this was cut to 6% from 8% last September to take some pressure off the renminbi.

      In quiet markets, the US dollar might also be getting some support from events in Argentina and the market is watching USD/RUB trade through 100.

      For the dollar itself, July US retail sales was stronger and kept US two-year yields near 5%. It seems the market is indeed settling into the view that the policy rate will be kept at these levels for an extended period – providing few reasons to sell the 5%+ yielding US dollar.
      …
      https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/the-dollars-still-got-the-groove-202308160229

    4. Don’t worry about the news out of China about falling home prices. This is ‘Merika, the land where real estate always goes up. It can’t happen here.

      1. Financial Times
        34 minutes ago
        Declines in Chinese new home prices accelerate in July
        William Langley in Hong Kong
        Evergrande Group’s City Plaza development in Beijing. Year on year, the weighted average new home price across 70 large and medium-sized cities was unchanged
        © Andrea Verdelli/Bloomberg

        The decline in new home prices in China accelerated in July, with smaller, lower-tier cities suffering the sharpest falls, according to Goldman Sachs calculations based on government data.

        New home prices declined 2.5 per cent month-on-month on a seasonally-adjusted annualised basis, a faster decline than June’s fall of 2.2 per cent.

        In first- and second-tier cities, prices fell 0.1 per cent and 0.5 per cent, respectively, while third- and fourth-tier cities registered drops of 3.9 per cent and 3.3 per cent.

        Year on year, the weighted average new home price across 70 large and medium-sized cities was unchanged.

        China’s property sector is battling with flagging demand and a renewed liquidity crisis.
        …

    5. China Economy
      JPMorgan hikes default forecast for emerging markets as Country Garden drives China contagion fears
      Published Tue, Aug 15 2023 10:29 PM EDT
      Updated 2 Hours Ago
      Clement Tan

      Key Points

      – JPMorgan raised its 2023 global emerging markets corporate high-yield default forecast to 9.7% from 6% in a note dated Aug. 15.

      – It also raised its Asia high yield default rate forecast to 10% from 4.1% — that figure drops to just 1%, if China property is excluded.

      – The bank expects China property to account for nearly 40% of all emerging market corporate high-yield default volumes in 2023.
      …
      https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/16/jpmorgan-hikes-em-default-forecast-as-country-garden-drives-china-contagion-fears-.html

    6. Markets
      China Asks Some Funds to Avoid Net Equity Sales as Markets Sink

      – Deepening slowdown, property sector crisis have been a drag

      – Previous similar guidance did little to shore up stock market

      By Bloomberg News
      August 16, 2023 at 12:40 AM PDT

      Chinese authorities asked some investment funds this week to avoid being net sellers of equities, as a rout in the nation’s financial markets deepened, people familiar with the matter said.

      Stock exchanges issued the so-called window guidance to several large mutual fund houses, telling them to refrain for a day from selling more onshore shares than they purchased, …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/china-asks-some-funds-to-avoid-net-equity-sales-as-markets-sink#xj4y7vzkg

  19. Commentary by Judge Glock
    There’s a Reason the Homeless Flock to San Francisco
    Public Safety, Cities California, Homelessness
    The Wall Street Journal
    August 13th, 2023

    A welcoming environment for camping and drugs attracts many from out of town and then keeps them on the streets.

    Many advocates claim that providing a welcoming environment for camping and drugs doesn’t attract the homeless, and that only more subsidized housing can solve homelessness. San Francisco shows the folly of those arguments (“Why San Francisco Is a Homeless Mecca,” Review & Outlook, Aug. 7). According to the city’s own statistics, almost 30% of the homeless moved there after they had already lost housing. Another 17% lived in the city for less than a year before becoming homeless. As Mayor London Breed admits, one reason people are coming is easy access to drugs.

    The claim that enough subsidized housing will solve the homelessness problem is belied by San Francisco’s efforts. In the past 15 years, the city has created more than 7,000 permanent housing units, enough to house every homeless person at the beginning of the period, but the problem has grown worse. That 11% of the homeless population was already living in subsidized or government housing before becoming homeless—again, most likely—shows that more housing is insufficient to stop the crisis.
    …
    https://manhattan.institute/article/theres-a-reason-the-homeless-flock-to-san-francisco

    1. “…the city has created more than 7,000 permanent housing units, enough to house every homeless person at the beginning of the period…”

      At what point will the fake shortage meme succumb to common recognition that prices went out of reach for a historically large share of the population?

  20. The grift is strong:

    BRECKENRIDGE — Starting this month if a homeowner wants to add a hot tub or fire pit to their home in this ski town it is going to cost them — in solar panels, heat pumps or extra cash.

    The town has joined a growing number of mountain communities and counties in adopting a “renewable energy mitigation plan” aimed at offsetting the sometimes considerable greenhouse gases outdoor amenities, including pools, driveway snow-melt systems and gas grills, can create.

    Summit County is about to follow suit aiming to adopt a similar plan, known as a REMP, in the fall.

    The plans calculate the carbon dioxide emitted from these outdoor features and then require an offset in solar panels added to the property — other energy saving devices may also count — otherwise a cash payment must be made to a fund used by the town for climate-related programs.

    Those new six figure climate regulation jobs aren’t going to fund themselves.

    The full article is in the Colorado Sun

    1. Those new six figure climate regulation jobs aren’t going to fund themselves.

      If you want to decrease the sales of something, tax it. I predict that the demand for hot tubs and fire pits is going to go significantly down. BTW, just how well do solar panels work in the winter when they are covered in snow or the sun isn’t shining? What about heat pumps when it is 15 degrees (F) outside?

  21. Image file of a bridge encampment in Denver near the electrical supply house:

    https://ibb.co/rwf4hvq

    The city cleared this area out a month ago, and more came in to replace them. I saw somebody sitting on the sidewalk a block from here cooking up a fix to inject, in broad daylight.

    Mayor Johnston owns this now. Nothing will ever change.

    2. You might want to look into the families of prominent WEF members. Many of them have Nahtzi ties.

    1. The Wall Street Journal
      Stock Market News, August 15, 2023: Indexes Finish Lower in Broad Retreat
      U.S. Treasury yields flirt with multiyear highs; Dow ends down more than 360 points
      Last Updated:
      Aug. 15, 2023 at 6:14 PM EDT
      14 hours ago
      Treasury Yields Test Multiyear Highs
      By Quentin Webb, Deputy Finance Editor for Europe

      U.S. Treasury yields are testing highs last seen in the 2000s, back before the global financial crisis ushered in the era of super-easy monetary policy that the Fed is now rapidly unwinding.

      If the 10-year yield ends the day above 4.231%, that will top the peak set last October, which was the highest since 2008.

      Two-year yields are also climbing, and are around 5%. On an end-of-day basis, the milestone to watch here is 5.064%. Reached in March, that was the highest since mid-2007.

      These yields, which move inversely to bond prices, are some of the most important rates in global finance.
      …

    2. Bear Steepening of the Yield Curve.

      In early August, market concern shifted to the sustainability of fiscal spending and increased Treasury issuance. The expected path of Fed Funds has remained largely stable since the July FOMC meeting, while term premium popped higher – signaling that investors are demanding more premium for taking on longer maturities. As a result, the long end of the US yield curve moved higher while the short end remained largely the same – a rare “bear steepening” of the yield curve.
      …
      https://etfdb.com/etf-strategist-channel/the-fed-is-probably-done-hiking-what-s-next/

    3. Markets
      US Treasury 10-Year at a ‘Good Entry Point,’ HSBC’s Major Says

      – Asset class is competitive with equities, credit, Major says

      – View on buying opportunity dovetails with JPM, Western Asset

      By Harry Suhartono
      August 15, 2023 at 9:22 PM PDT

      The yield on 10-year US Treasuries is at the top end of its range, providing a good entry point for investors, according to Steven Major, global head of fixed-income research at HSBC Plc.

      The US Treasury market selloff has been escalating, pushing the 10-year yield above 4.2% this week as investors pared expectations for Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts next year. That makes the asset class competitive relative to equities and credit, according to Major.
      …
      https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-16/us-treasury-10-year-at-a-good-entry-point-hsbc-s-major-says#xj4y7vzkg

  24. Financial Times
    Markets Briefing Markets
    US Treasury yields hit highest level this year after strong retail sales data
    Renminbi at 9-month low against the dollar after surprise lending rate cut
    A montage of a globe and a chart
    Bank shares fell, adding to the pressure on the broader US equities market
    Daria Mosolova in London and Silin Chen in New York an hour ago

    Wall Street stocks sank to a five-week low, and longer-term Treasury yields hit their highest level this year, as strong retail sales data stirred concerns that US interest rates could remain higher for longer.

    Wall Street’s benchmark S&P 500 closed down 1.2 per cent at its lowest level since mid-July. The technology-focused Nasdaq Composite dropped 1.1 per cent.

    The yield on the 10-year US Treasury, which is more sensitive to expectations for economic growth, rose 0.04 percentage points to 4.22 per cent, its highest level since November 2022. The yield on the two-year government note fell 0.02 percentage points to 4.95 per cent. Yields rise when prices fall.
    …

  26. Platinum bullion 1-oz coins are selling out fast on all the online bullion dealer sites. South Africa, the source of 73% of the global platinum supply, is circling the drain. Trading debauched Yellen bux for physical precious metals seems like a no-brainer to me.

  27. ‘Owners of San Francisco’s office towers, shopping centers, hotels and homes are flooding the county with appeals to slash their property assessments — and tax payments — as real estate prices sink in the beleaguered city. A recognition by assessors that property values have plunged only adds fuel to a potential doom loop of disinvestment, where indebted owners walk away from buildings rather than pour money into assets that are worth less than they paid. The median San Francisco home price sank 16% in June from a year earlier’

    Thornberg:

    via GIPHY

  28. ‘San Francisco is far from alone as landlords across the country grapple with shifts in real estate demand and rising interest rates that have sent building prices tumbling. Assessment appeals have also risen in Los Angeles, Chicago and New York. Offices in New York may lose an estimated 44% of their pre-pandemic value by 2029 because of the impact of remote work, according to a joint study from researchers at New York University and Columbia University’

    Well that’s convenient. No mention of mayors and guvnahs chopping businesses and citizens off at the knees due to minor respiratory illness?

  29. ‘So now the attitude on the other end is prices are dropping. No, they’re going to what they should have been in the first place’

    Good to know Brian. Let me know when they drop – a lot!

  30. ‘It may be hard to believe, but even with the average rent it charges steadily creeping towards €2,000, Ireland’s largest private landlord is struggling’

    But it was a 5% cap rate?

    1. ‘Ires seemingly perfectly timed its launch as one of the first real estate investment trusts in Ireland. The idea was for the company to be at the forefront of ‘professionalising’ the rental sector, which at the time was dominated by small landlords who owned just one or two homes’

      Another false narrative circles the bowl.

    2. It is if you buy risk free US Treasury Bills. And you don’t have to worry about CR8Ring real estate valuations.

  31. ‘some vendors were dropping their prices while others ‘continued to hold out in the hopes of achieving their original sales price’

    Vendors! Hold the line!

  32. ‘While not long ago you’d be looking at $1 million to buy in the popular subdivision now it was more like $850,000, she said’

    So just like that Kate. Yer giving it away.

    ‘Higher interest rates and people not able to afford repayments would also have an impact on the market in coming months. ‘There’s going to be a bit of carnage in September, October. We haven’t seen the worst of that yet – we haven’t seen mortgagee sales, we haven’t seen desperation’

    That’s the spirit Kate, keep up the good work!

  36. – Well, the price reductions are starting to get interesting. What with 30 yr. fixed rate mortgage rates now at 7.26% and all.

    – What happened to “marry the house, date the rate?”

    – Some have said that Colorado Springs, CO isn’t a “housing bubble” city.

    – Rising rates in a highly leveraged economy. Add to this a likely stock market crash and deep recession. Stock prices and unemployment are highly correlated with house prices. We all know mortgage rates are. The slow-motion train wreck of the deflating of The Everything Bubble, aka The Central Bank bubble continues…

    I’m sure it’s nothing. No RRE speculation to see here. Move along, move along.

    \\

    https://www.realtor.com/realestateandhomes-detail/2595-Brogans-Bluff-Dr_Colorado-Springs_CO_80919_M18227-21166?from=srp-list-card
    For Sale
    $1,000,000
    Reduced $200k
    Est. Price per square feet $217
    Est. $6162/mo.

    Property history
    Property price
    Date Event Price Price/Sq Ft Source
    08/01/2023 Price Changed $1,000,000 $217 PikesPeakMLS
    07/15/2023 Price Changed $1,200,000 $260 PikesPeakMLS
    07/10/2023 Listed $1,300,000 $282 PikesPeakMLS
    06/24/2014 Listing Removed $109,000 – PikesPeakMLS
    06/10/2014 Price Changed $109,000 – PikesPeakMLS
    03/28/2014 Listed $112,000 – PikesPeakMLS

    \\

    https://media.tenor.com/btt6YFIkfHMAAAAC/one-milliondollars-dr-evil.gif

  37. How many Californians can come up with a 20% downpayment on an $830,000 home ($160,600)?

    And by the way, mortgage rates are quite a bit north of 7%, and heading towards 8%. 6% mortgage rates are nowhere to be found.

    1. California
      Housing affordability in California drops to 16-year low
      by: Travis Schlepp
      Posted: Aug 15, 2023 / 01:18 PM PDT
      Updated: Aug 15, 2023 / 01:30 PM PDT

      Housing affordability in California hit a 16-year low in the second quarter of 2023, according to new figures released by the California Association of Realtors.

      The startling numbers come as interest rates continue to stagnate above 6% and home prices remain inflated due to a lack of inventory.

      The data show that fewer than one in five people, 16% to be exact, can afford to purchase a median-priced existing single-family home in the Golden State. Those second-quarter numbers are down from 19% in the first quarter of 2023.

      For comparison, in the first quarter of 2012, the percentage of home buyers who could purchase a median-priced single-family home in California was as high as 56%.

      Equally surprising, the CAR numbers indicated that a minimum income of $208,000 was needed to qualify to purchase a median-priced home, which costs around $830,000.

      And if you can qualify for the mortgage, you can expect monthly payments of around $5,200, assuming you put forth 20% for the standard down payment and qualified for an interest rate of around 6.6%.
      …
      https://ktla.com/news/california/housing-affordability-in-california-drops-to-16-year-low/

      1. Real Estate
        Homebuilder sentiment drops sharply, as mortgage rates surge over 7%
        Published Tue, Aug 15 2023 10:00 AM EDT
        Updated Tue, Aug 15 2023 12:33 PM EDT
        Diana Olick
        WATCH LIVE
        Key Points

        – Builder sentiment dropped 6 points to 50 in August, according to the National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index. Anything over 50 is considered positive.

        – Mortgage rates are now holding solidly over 7%, hitting 7.24% on Monday, according to Mortgage News Daily.

        – The share of builders cutting prices rose to 25% in August from 22% in July.
        …
        https://www.cnbc.com/2023/08/15/homebuilder-sentiment-drops-mortgage-rates-surge.html

      2. California
        Housing affordability in California drops to 16-year low

        So what does this mean? First, people who have the income and cash to afford to buy a home are not going to be buying one at this point in time. Why? Because they have to be above average intelligence and know that we’re in bubble territory–they aren’t buying at peak prices.

        Two. Nobody is going to be able to sell a home at these prices. There aren’t any buyers out there. And there are no “rich Chinese” to save the day and investors are the ones trying to sell! So, what’s going to happen over the next year or two or three? Is this price plateau permanent? Of course not. Have housing bubbles ever happened in the past? Of course.

        This is a none story as far as I’m concerned. Only an idiot would buy anything right now.

Comments are closed.