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Homes That Are Overpriced Sit On The Market For Quite Some Time Without Getting Any Offers

A report from the Miami Herald in Florida. “Multimillion-dollar home prices continue to make headlines. But in truth, Miami-Dade’s luxury home market is continuing to soften, said Ron Shuffield, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices EWM Realty. The problem: So many luxury homes on the market. The oversupply in the residential luxury market drove third-quarter sales prices down — to 81% of the listing price for condos and 84% of the listing price for single-family homes. That data comes from the local and regional Multiple Listing Service.”

“The luxury condo market fared worse than single-family homes because of over supply. The luxury condo market has 45.4 months of supply — up from 43.7 months of supply in the third quarter of 2018, said Shuffield. The luxury single-family home sector has 18.8 months of supply, down from 19.7 months in the third quarter of 2018. ‘Once you go over 18 months, the sales slow and inventory grows,’ he said.”

From 5280 in Colorado. “While Denver has not yet reached the status of a buyer’s market—except in the luxury condo segment—the city is seeing signs of slowdown. For one, the number of price reductions and the gap between list price and sold price has increased. For the first time in four years, the year-to-date close-price to list-price dipped below 100 percent to 99.31 percent in September.”

“Luxury market condos, priced between $750,000 and $999,999, and single family homes priced over $1 million, are seeing more of a shift to a buyer’s market, notes Jill Schafer, chair of the DMAR Market Trends Committee. ‘Buyers today really want new. We have an inventory of luxury homes that is now what buyers consider dated, and not moving quickly,’ Schafer says. ‘It’s sad to say that homes that are 10 to 15 years old appear dated to today’s buyer.'”

The Washington Blade in DC. “Any experienced agent will tell you that the market feels a little squishier than in previous years, even from earlier this year, so to sell at the best terms possible, it will take a little more thought and a lot more strategy than in recent times. In the short term, there is no denying that the market is not quite as ‘frothy’ as it has been in previous Octobers, which is normally a busy time of year as a key month of the fall market. But this October, with impeachment talk dominating the news cycles, and constant henny-penny economic predictions, has seen a little bit of a slowdown.”

The Bothell Reporter in Washington. “Mona Spencer, branch manager for John L. Scott’s Redmond office, said buyers and sellers should be cognizant of current market conditions for the best chance at success. She said brokers in her office are seeing homes with deferred maintenance that are also overpriced and un-staged sit on the market for quite some time without getting any offers. Making these mistakes when listing a home puts more negotiation power in buyers’ hands as the home sits on the market, she added.”

“‘Competition in our area has slowed down since the same time last year. Last year, most offers faced competition,’ said Spencer. ‘I am currently seeing less competition than last year but well-priced homes in great locations can still garner more than one offer. The winning offer is often still the one that is above the list price with waiver of contingencies.'”

From Newsday in New York. “Overall inventory across the Island, excluding the Hamptons and North Fork, was 14,051 in the second quarter of 2019, the latest available figure, up 21.7% from the same time period last year, says Jonathan Miller, chief executive officer of Manhattan-based Miller Samuel Inc., a real estate appraiser firm.”

“Amy Pfister, a Douglas Elliman Real Estate agent based out of Sayville, says she noticed an uptick in homes being listed between $250,000 and $350,000 toward the end of spring. Not only is there a higher quantity, she says, but some houses are in better shape and in neighborhoods with top-rated school districts, easy access to public transportation and closer proximity to dining and shopping.”

“‘In the last two years, anyone who was shopping under $300,000 wasn’t really able to get their hands on anything you could move into or in an area they might have desired,’ Pfister says. ‘Now you can get something decent, that is move-in ready. Maybe not up-to-date, but in a neighborhood you want to be in, and you can do your updates as you go.'”

The Sacramento Bee in California. “The price of a remarkable estate overlooking the roaring Bear River near Auburn has been reduced to $5.9 million, according to the official listing. The 10,000-square-foot home at 11391 Overhill Drive, off Highway 49 in Placer County, hit the market earlier this year at $7.9 million.”

“The property, which was featured in a Sacramento Bee article in August, is perched on 150 acres offering views of the river below from nearly every room. The property’s entire north boundary is the Bear River, said Bruce Renfrew of California Outdoor Properties, who is the co-listing agent.”

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  1. ‘The luxury condo market fared worse than single-family homes because of over supply. The luxury condo market has 45.4 months of supply — up from 43.7 months of supply in the third quarter of 2018, said Shuffield. The luxury single-family home sector has 18.8 months of supply, down from 19.7 months in the third quarter of 2018. ‘Once you go over 18 months, the sales slow and inventory grows’

    Yeah, well the $3 million and over market is more like 20 years Ron.

    1. ok – do people understand basic math? 43.7 months supply is less than 4 years – so everyone is ok?

      Or it is reaching 4 years – might be a big problem

      1. what happen to the 6 months of supply = balanced market crap?

        With today technology, why does it take 4 years to sell something? Maybe just cut the price?

        1. “…why does it take 4 years…”

          Can’t think of any consumer product with similar sell dynamics.

          2. I have recently noticed vehicles on dealer lots that, in some instances, have been sitting more than 12 months. I have no idea if this is always the case but found it to be quite shocking.

          3. One thing i noticed a few years ago is that a large used car dealer chain in San Diego stopped putting luxury cars at the front of the lot where it’s most visible to the street. They put economy cars there now.

      2. ok – do people understand basic math? 43.7 months supply is less than 4 years – so everyone is ok?

        That’s not even math, it’s arithmetic

  2. ‘Luxury market condos, priced between $750,000 and $999,999, and single family homes priced over $1 million, are seeing more of a shift to a buyer’s market…‘Buyers today really want new. We have an inventory of luxury homes that is now what buyers consider dated, and not moving quickly…It’s sad to say that homes that are 10 to 15 years old appear dated to today’s buyer’

    So you’re saying they are fooked Jill?

    1. oh the realtors are right and you are wrong 🙂

      They just need staging, new appliances, painting and landscaping. Badda Bing, Badda Boom – it sells

    3. The saga of the global housing “slow motion train wreck” continues. Documented for posterity by the most excellent efforts of Ben here at the HBB.

      ‘Buyers today really want new.’ – Based on quality issues, I’m not sure I’d “really want new”, if I were of a mindset to buy right now. Kind of like buying a Tesla. Lots of hype and looks shiny and cool on the outside, but crappy quality on the inside, from what I hear. Caveat emptor.

      – Takeaways:
      – Lux condos and apartments are way overbuilt. The actual market is much smaller than expectations. This due to business model based on false economic signals from our glorious centrally planned, command and control economy as run by the idiots at the Fed. Think former USSR: “You will build 1M tractors, comrade.” In spite of the fact that only 50K are needed. Housing and stocks are targeted favorite asset classes for appreciation as “the wealth effect”, a now discredited goal-seeking policy. There be (unintended) consequences.
      – Inventory is increasing, esp. at high-end, all segments (leading).
      – Price reductions are increasing, esp. at high-end, all segments (leading).
      – REIC in full-blown spin cycle and damage control (commissions proportional to price). Apparently there were no problems with high prices for them when the bubble was inflating.
      – Stocks also in a Fed-induced bubble.
      – This will end well. /sarc.

      The laws of economics still apply:
      “Trees don’t grow to the sky.” – German proverb
      “What goes up must come down.” – Isaac Newton (speaking of the law of physical gravity, but lost shirt in South Sea bubble, an example of economic gravity.)

      1. What goes up must come down.

        Typically, yes. Unless there is inflation, which seems to be what the central bankers have been trying to do since 2008. They want inflation to put a floor under these prices. Deflation is their worst case scenario and they will fight it tooth and nail.

        1. The central banks create overcapacity which results in lower prices for pretty much everything. I’ve had dozens of posts on this over the years. Ask a dairy farmer.

          The economic theory you are describing is over 60 years old and was made prior to globalism and open borders currency/yield chasing.

          1. I hope we do get the equivalent of $2/milk in housing at some point. Haven’t seen it yet except for in the high end luxury market, but am hoping it materializes.

          4. You mentioned cratering rental rates for single family houses yesterday. That is deflation in housing due to overcapacity. Newly built houses will also lead the market down as builders try to dump inventory.

          5. You mentioned cratering rental rates for single family houses yesterday.

            I see some softening that may indicate a slowdown. But I haven’t actually seen any widespread declines. You had sideways movement in rent from 2009-2010, and then continued increases. Nothing on the horizon nationally suggests we have yet started going down in rent:

            https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CUUR0000SEHA

            As for non-inflation in milk vs. housing, they are worlds apart. Milk is more like a commodity or a widget, and so there are more market forces that can adjust the price. Housing is like a cartel, and I consider it a positional good since while there is abundant land, the availability of land in areas where there are good jobs, shopping, and services is limited. Add to that the fact that the housing “have’s” work to keep their prices high by enforcing NIMBYism regulations that prevent more building of density in the name of historicity, the environment, preserving the character of the neighborhood, etc.

            I think Barry Ritholz said it perfectly last year:

            “The good news is that flat-panel televisions, tablets, tech gadgets, toys — many of the things we want and enjoy — have tumbled in price as a result of widespread adoption and economies of scale. The bad news is that costs for health care, housing and education have consistently been rising at rates much faster than the CPI.”

            “We have deflation in the things we want, but inflation in the things we need.”

            Source: Most of Us are Not Really Fabulously Rich

        2. They thought they could juice asset prices and then wages would catch up. That’s pure fantasy. It’s backwards. Only a complete idiot would believe such thing is possible.

          1. The DebtDonkeys and DegenerateGamblers can’t answer the question……

            “Do you really believe wages will triple or quadruple to meet grossly inflated prices?”

            The pain of falling prices to dramatically lower and more affordable levels meeting wages is just too great to admit.

          2. They thought they could juice asset prices and then

            Goosing up asset prices with a credit expansion is looting. I doubt they cared about wages. Pitchforks, they might care about. Not very many pitchforks around though.

    4. Like Ben said, when the new stuffs priced at or below the “old” stuffs…you’re fooked.

      BTW, in Silicon Valley, there are greedy morons trying to sell 50’s or 60’s built ranch house for $1.3 or $1.4 M last Spring. I saw same house listing for rent for $3.1K or $3.2K per month and I knew the bubble was bursting! There is no way a sane investor would buy! It was all CHinamon speculating!!! In some case, they brought the properties and leave it empty…to appreciate until it didn’t! Now, we have new luxury apartments up to high heaven and rents around my area are dropping too!

      3. huge amount of CA folks are moving to Denver — and influencing for the worst.

        My inlaws are realtors in Lowry (high end area built on the old airforce base). They are seeing lot of CA folks moving there (High-tech, bio/life sciences, legal) who dont even blink at $1.2 or $1.4.

        It has to stop, and decelerate at a certain point — but for now it is still going. The 3 person realtor team had 10 closings in Seattle. I cannot explain it –

        But they are treating this as the last days of the doc.com boom – and taking every sale.

        All the nice bars/restaurants in Lowry are jammed – i was just there 3 weeks ago. It is incomprehensible

        1. It’s centrally located and brand new at the same time, so you’re close to all the downtown workplaces but you get to live in a brand new burb and a new, modern house (with all those wonderful shades of gray in the decor.

          Still, paying 1 mill+ to live in the middle of Denver seems crazy, but if you sold the old shack in the bay area for that price I suppose it would seem reasonable, until the schlonging begins. Then all that “sweet equity” the brought from California goes up in smoke and the feet stamping begins.

          Are that many Californians still coming? I ask because all my Silly Valley colleagues ask me how do I endure the “brutal winters” out here. My observation over the years is that the bulk of new arrivals here are midwesterners. Don’t most Californians move to warm places like Arizona, Nevada, New Mexico and Texas?

    6. ‘It’s sad to say that homes that are 10 to 15 years old appear dated to today’s buyer.’

      Or maybe the problem is they are POS bubble junk?

      I’m weird but I like 90s houses so I don’t worry about “dated”. I do worry about junk though. Or perhaps they are surprised that people might want a discount for buying a worn house of dubious origin? It’s not like you can’t sell them at the right price.

      1. What is a “90s house?” Yes I know it was built in the 90s, but is there a defining style?

        We’ve had 1860s Victorian, 1880s Queen Anne (including stately city rowhomes), 1920s Craftsman, 1930’s jury-rig farmhouse, 1940s Cape, 1950s ranch, 1960s mid-century modern, 1970s weird windows/contempo, and 1980s Center Hall Colonial.

        But after that I can’t pin down a style. After 1990 they just took the old styles and inflated the sq ft.

        1. What is a “90s house?”

          I wasn’t in the market for a McMansion back then, but the construction was pre-bubble and I think you usually got what you paid for. The style was white-ish walls and wood tones and carpet/tile. Bullnose corners, lightly textures walls and ceilings, standard appliances. What I think of as a “normal” house. No grays, no pergraniteel. More about comfort and long life than style and quick resale value.

      2. I think it partly because the new generation for the most part does not have any training in maintaining a house. I bought new but now the house is ten years old, I have started to have to repair. I can do small things like fix toilets etc. but I will soon pay someone to change the water heater. I could probably watch a video and do it but since it involves NG and the possibility of serious damage if done wrong, my time is best spent elsewhere. Sweat equity was common when I was growing up, now we have more flippers because as a whole we are less “handy” now than we were before.

      3. Or perhaps they are surprised that people might want a discount for buying a worn house of dubious origin?

        AKA, the The Market for Lemons. When there is an asymmetry of information (you haven’t lived in the house, ergo you don’t know what might be wrong), therefore you have to assume the worst and discount appropriately. Especially on such a large priced item. That is at least how I think about things.

      4. I want a masonry house, not brick veneer, real brick walls, something that is basically indestructible. Are there any masons left in the U.S. that are capable of building one?

        1. Are you saying bricks can be used for something other than decoration on the outside of real 2×4 walls?

        2. Are there any masons left in the U.S. that are capable of building one?

          The father of a good family friend was a brick mason in southern Utah for the past 30 years. His business folded during The Great Recession. Wasn’t of retirement age so he went into doing something else, though I’m not sure what it is.

  3. ‘Overall inventory across the Island, excluding the Hamptons and North Fork, was 14,051 in the second quarter of 2019, the latest available figure, up 21.7% from the same time period last year’

    Year after year, the shacks keep piling up. Where are they coming from?

  5. “But this October, with impeachment talk dominating the news cycles, and constant henny-penny economic predictions, has seen a little bit of a slowdown.”

    Slowdown Faults
    – Weather
    – Summer Vacation
    – BREXIT
    – Trade Wars
    – Tariffs
    – Buyer’s fatigue
    – New tax reform
    – Interest rate too high
    – Interest rate too low
    – STORAGE!!!!
    – Currency strength
    – Current weakness
    – Election of Trump
    – Impeachment of Trump

    They never mentioned Bubble

  6. On a related note, this popped up this morning:

    Who is Buying Seattle? The Perils of the Luxury Real Estate Boom –
    https://inequality.org/great-divide/who-is-buying-seattle/

    The more expensive the unit, the more likely it is to be owned by a trust, trustee, LLC, or other corporate entity. We confirmed that 3 percent of the LLCs owning Seattle luxury properties have organized themselves in the state of Delaware, the premiere secrecy jurisdiction in the United States. In a great number more, we could not trace the registration to a level where we could exclude Delaware, making the 3 percent figure the “floor.”

    1. ‘the premiere secrecy jurisdiction in the United States’

      I read that article this morning. This secrecy thing is simplistic. After the Panama Papers came out it was revealed that Nevada and Wyoming LLCs are used to launder money just as much or more. If I had to set up a cross states lines LLC I would use Delaware – it’s a lot cheaper and easier.

      1. BTW I think the vast majority of C corps are domiciled in Delaware for the same reason, and there’s no secrecy with those. What should tip off regulators are layers of LLC’s, ending with an offshore shell owner. The Feds have ended the secrecy thing for real estate in most major US metros. That’s one reason there’s all these Miami condos sitting around.

        1. What should tip off regulators are layers of LLC’s, ending with an offshore shell owner.

          IMO, we ought to have a registrar of beneficial ownership. Even if not public, we ought to be able to tie ownership of US property to a person one way or another.

      2. I have been watching one of these LLC owned properties locally. There was an Asian fellow occupying it for a couple weeks before it went on the market and outside of that it has sat vacant for the last two years. The yard has gone to hell vs when it sold last. I have not this guy there since the house was listed.

        “Trustee wants SOLD!”

        https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/702-Park-Way-Santa-Cruz-CA-95065/16109857_zpid/

        The price has been dropping like a turd in a well (as you often put it). Today it dropped below this “trustee’s” purchase price of 910k back in nov 2017.

          3. I say that because the foreclosure price in Arizona would be what was owed on it, typically. Then they came out with a higher price, multiple cut to follow.

            The FB had chickens.

          7. Foreclosure Est: $1,355,663
            4 bd4 ba3,418 sqft
            50 Fanlight, Irvine, CA 92620
            Auction

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/50-Fanlight-Irvine-CA-92620/64804925_zpid/

            $498,9773 bd1.5 ba1,500 sqft
            4463 Larwin Ave, Cypress, CA 90630
            Pre-foreclosure / auction

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/4463-Larwin-Ave-Cypress-CA-90630/25325842_zpid/

            $977,3214 bd3 ba2,363 sqft
            19 Tiara, Irvine, CA 92614
            Pre-foreclosure

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/19-Tiara-Irvine-CA-92614/25482154_zpid/

            Foreclosure set for 11-13-19

            1851 Braemar Way
            Newport Beach, CA 92660
            4 beds 3.5 baths 3,721 sqft

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1851-Braemar-Way-Newport-Beach-CA-92660/25468993_zpid/

            $578,7893 bd2 ba1,145 sqft
            25241 Bentley, Laguna Hills, CA 92653
            Pre-foreclosure / auction

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/25241-Bentley-Laguna-Hills-CA-92653/25540825_zpid/

            Opening bid: $1,125,000.00

            2054 Via Teca
            San Clemente, CA 92673
            4 beds 3 baths 3,900 sqft

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2054-Via-Teca-San-Clemente-CA-92673/25588532_zpid/

            Auction set for 11-13-19

            32162 Calle Los Elegantes
            San Juan Capistrano, CA 92675
            5 beds 4.5 baths 4,480 sqft

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/32162-Calle-Los-Elegantes-San-Juan-Capistrano-CA-92675/25577243_zpid/

          8. $917,9734 bd2 ba1,941 sqft
            67 Mount Tallac Ct, San Rafael, CA 94903
            Pre-foreclosure / auction

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/67-Mount-Tallac-Ct-San-Rafael-CA-94903/19294947_zpid/

            10-31-19

            2534 Benedict Canyon Dr
            Beverly Hills, CA 90210
            4 beds 3 baths 3,100 sqft

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/2534-Benedict-Canyon-Dr-Beverly-Hills-CA-90210/2140022297_zpid/

            $2,136,3103 bd3 ba2,980 sqft
            13 Valdivia Ct, Burlingame, CA 94010
            Pre-foreclosure

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/13-Valdivia-Ct-Burlingame-CA-94010/15511631_zpid/

            $1,101,5124 bd2 ba1,389 sqft
            670 E Duane Ave, Sunnyvale, CA 94085
            Pre-foreclosure

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/670-E-Duane-Ave-Sunnyvale-CA-94085/19544810_zpid/

            $318,9533 bd1 ba1,404 sqft
            3816 Annadale Ln, Sacramento, CA 95821
            Pre-foreclosure

            https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/3816-Annadale-Ln-Sacramento-CA-95821/26063100_zpid/

          9. Ironically, there is a porta potty on the sidewalk and a dumpster delivery truck in front on the google street view.

          10. 12/30/2018 Price change $5,900,000(+99900%)
            12/29/2018 Listed for sale $5,900(-99.3%)

            That’s quite a typo…funny that it took a day to catch. I guess that’s what happens when you’re working over Christmas vacation.

          12. Thanks for all the foreclosure links ben! I suspect this is just the beginning of a flood foreclosures

    1. Good thing Facebook is hiring! Whew! Gotta get some of those social media stock grants and buy a shack with qualification assuming future awards!

  8. “She said brokers in her office are seeing homes with deferred maintenance that are also overpriced and un-staged sit on the market for quite some time without getting any offers. Making these mistakes when listing a home puts more negotiation power in buyers’ hands as the home sits on the market, she added.”

    Vultures are circling, and waiting for the opportunity to pick the bones of overpriced listings that won’t sell.

    We have a lot of overpriced listings sitting on the market unsold in North County San Diego.

    1. Vultures are circling, and waiting for the opportunity to pick the bones of overpriced listings that won’t sell.

      Sure, but with all those issues I’m going to need a BIG discount. Otherwise my wife would rather have something built new when those prices are more reasonable.

      1. Carl, did you feel the 4.5 mag earthquake on Monday? I assume you live near that area. It woke up my wife and we are in Milpitas.

        1. Carl, did you feel the 4.5 mag earthquake on Monday?

          No, I heard it mentioned in the Pleasanton/Dublin area, apparently people felt it fairly strongly there. But I did not notice it in Folsom.

        2. Felt it down in santa cruz, guessing your wife works nightshift? That or takes naps? Happened while i was at lunch 12ish?

  10. Not a housing issue but I think this is a smart blog so I will ask the question. It is a globalist issue and the world wide housing bubble would not exist without globalism.
    For people who want to keep US troops in Syria what is the eventual exit strategy? All the Kurds are landlocked whether they live in Iran, Iraq, Syria or Turkey. Thus, even to send aid to them you need to cross another countries boundaries and of course they live in all those sovereign lands which would have to give permission to cross those borders. The Syrian Kurds live in Syria thus if we want to protect them from Turkey we must get Syria’s help since obviously Turkey will not allow us to help them. Doesn’t that give Syria and Russia, Syria’s ally a way to pressure us. If we need to attack Syria they can retaliate against our troops. Do we really think that Syria will not some day want to reestablish its rule on all its territory including the Kurdish lands/ What right do we have to preclude Syria from asserting its sovereignty? Seems like our troops were trapped between two potential enemies of the Kurds who both have recognized rights to assert sovereignty. Turkey to root out terrorists who do operate out of Syria and Syria who has the right to protect its territory. It seems to me that the problem is the US government should not have destabilized Syria and Libya to begin with which occurred under the Obama administration. Hundreds of thousands have been killed and millions displaced due to that administration wanting to allow a NG pipeline from Qatar to be built in Syria to bring NG to Europe. I do not see how the US without a full blown war with Syria or Turkey or both could ever meet the desire for the Kurds to have a state. Thus, encouraging the Kurds to believe we would back their statehood goals would only set them up for war which would kill hundreds of thousands of Kurds. Pulling out after ISIS was no longer an imminent threat to them or the US seems sound to me. Syria has always opposed ISIS and will always since Syria is a Shiite sect country and ISIS is a Sunni organization. ISIS grew is Syria and then spilled back into Iraq with weapons the US supplied to Islamists rebels against Assad. No war against Assad then there would have been no ISIS and the killing of tens of thousands of Kurds.

    2. Bush and Obama are both war criminals and we don’t belong in that part of the world and never did. Our involvement in Syria was brought to you by John Kerry, Samantha Power and John McCain. The IYIs (intellectuals yet idiots) thought they knew better from their ivory towers and it blew up in their faces. Assad with help from Russia was a much more formidable foe. There was no possible way for the U.S. to win because we had no dog in the fight, so to speak. Had we continued it may have blown up into a world war.

        2. Yes, and it was granted on his first day in office. Paul Krugman has a nobel too, so what does that say about the value of that prize? Is it like the Special Olympics where it’s only done to give the mentally/physically challenged a way to feel good about themselves?

    3. Dan leave them alone……they love killing each other over a book …a book and their interpretation of it. That is not a good reason to put Americans in the line of fire. Let the locals deal with it. Its their religion.

  12. USA Today, the paper for people who can’t read without moving their lips, is shutting down its print addition. It seems that disseminating globalist propaganda and DNC talking points is not longer viable as a means of profitability.

    1. I think I saw that Autoweek, which has been around since the 1950s is also shutting down. Print media has been in decline for a while now, and very, very few are going to survive.

      One interesting thing I see no one ever mentioning about online newspapers — pages can be removed or altered without any record after the fact (and search engine copies wiped or revised) and history is re-written. Something you couldn’t practically do with printed copies already in the hands of readers.

      1. printed copies already in the hands of readers.

        Libraries used to keep extensive archives of printed newspapers.

      2. “Oceania is at war with Eurasia. They have always been at war with Eurasia.”

        Democracy cannot survive without an educated populace. I worry that the news media outlets replacing old-school newspapers will give rise to all sorts of conspiracy sites and propaganda outlets.

        I like the Onion cartoon I came across last year:

        “We Must Protect The Pure Aryan Bloodline,’ Says Child After 9 Minutes Of Unsupervised Facebook Access”

      3. I don’t know. In the era of the newspaper the U.S. had involved itself in one pointless foreign conflict after another, from the Spanish American war all the way to Iraq 2.0. Finally in 2016 after the internet was dominant and newspapers/MSM were fading away we elect a man who dares say that maybe such wars are ill advised and a waste of blood and treasure.

        1. I sincerely hope for the best, but with genocide being instigated on Facebook (e.g. Myanmar), I am not optimistic.

    1. Just $50 millions cut…Now we are talking. I just need another $50 millions cut and we can close as early as tomorrow :-0

  15. A nation of dummies …

    “Half of high-income millennials ages 30 to 34 fear they’ll have to work forever because they won’t be able to save enough to retire.

    “That’s one take-away from a recent study that focused on high-income millennials, those with a minimum annual income of $100,000 for single people or $150,000 for married or partnered millennials.

    “The survey was conducted by the Spectrem Group, a wealth advisory company, and offers insight for the demographic that came of age during America’s worst economic crisis since the Great Depression.

    “In particular, millennials that are now 30-34 years old — meaning that they likely graduated from college in the depths of the downturn, when hiring in many industries had dried up — are the most cognizant of or concerned about finances.

    “That ‘middle’ cohort, scarred by memories of a dismal employment market, are also far more willing to work at a job that they might not like than their younger or older peers.

    “High-income millennials under 29, who graduated from college when the U.S. economy had started to recover, are more optimistic, the survey found: they’re more willing to hold out for a job they enjoy, and less worried about having to work forever.”

    Even High-Income Millennials Fear They’ll Need to Work Forever – Bloomberg
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-05/even-high-income-millennials-fear-they-ll-need-to-work-forever

    1. OneAgainstMany assures us that “old school” media are the only trustworthy sources of information, rather than bloggers like Ben spreading their propaganda and conspiracy theories. I think I’ll scurry right on down to Mr. Banker’s office and sign on the dotted line for a shack, cuz I need to buy now or be priced out forever.

      1. “I think I’ll scurry right on down to Mr. Banker’s office and sign on the dotted line for a shack, cuz I need to buy now or be priced out forever.”

        Do this and receive a (as in one) cup of coffee. (Financial terms regarding refills are negotiable.)

      2. OneAgainstMany assures us that “old school” media are the only trustworthy sources of information, rather than bloggers like Ben spreading their propaganda and conspiracy theories.

        How does that quote go again? “A lie can go half way around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes” (misattributed to Mark Twain.

        Old school media isn’t infallible and certainly they have their biases. Bloggers have their place too, but they shouldn’t be mistaken for journalists. But most of those I went to school with and who entered journalism sincerely do try to approach a subject evenhandedly. I have no disdain for reporters and I do not think that “the press is the enemy of the people.”

        1. The press is the enemy of the people every time they misinform us, and every time they report rumors and accusations as fact, and every time they twist and filter a subject to a political end. Thus, the American mainstream press (in my personal observation) is quite often an enemy of the people.

          Bloggers are journalists if they record the truth.

          1. Thus, the American mainstream press (in my personal observation) is quite often an enemy of the people.

            Well in Mexico they are killed routinely, just like Khashoggi. But that begs the question, which rumors and accusations are being reported as facts?

    2. Wow, worst sales pitch ive ever heard… prices down, no more bidding wars, more inventory, anyone can get a loan (but its different than last time), and dont forget; only thing guaranteed in life is death, taxes, AND RENT ONLY GOES UP, BUY NOW!!!!

  18. Social Security announced the COLA for next year (my third year) at 1.6% based on their idea of CPI. Funny thing about CPI, it doesn’t include some of the most expensive things I buy. This year I replaced my vehicle and phone. Both are easily twice as expensive as the last time I replaced them, but neither is reflected in CPI. The reason is that they are not the same. Both are more complex and sophisticated. It’s not like I can simply choose to buy either in the form they were 10 years ago.

    It’s not like I didn’t understand this already, I’m just commenting that SS is a glide path to a lower standard of living. I’m very fortunate to have a lot of preps in place, worked around the housing bubble problem, savings as a cushion, no debt and modest needs.

    Just a reminder.

    1. Just as important Blue, is finding a partner with the same views on money. Ive been lucky too to find women who know luxury is not that important, and going into debt only in a dire emergency. It really eliminates a lot of arguments

    2. A) The Fed’s “wealth effect” specifically targets stocks and housing asset inflation. Reference: Ben Bernanke’s WaPo interview (2010, I think). However, mostly upper classes own stocks and housing. This is leading cause of growing wealth inequality.
      B) U.S. higher .edu is a cartel with controlled prices and administrative bloat (end game of any cartel bureaucracy). Tuition is proportional (equal) to Federal student loan limits.
      C) Healthcare is also a cartel. See (B), above.
      D) As Ben said (above), the Fed creates deflation via excess production capacity. Their “2% inflation” mantra is BS. There’s plenty of inflation in asset prices. Wages MUST be suppressed at all costs. This is due to globalism/globalists, which included the Fed. The Fed is pro-capital (business/corps./Wall St.) and anti-labor/wages/Main St. Just look at the largest wealth inequality since the 1920’s for validation of this.

      Nice charts here.
      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4111845-careful-wish-inflation-much-higher-advertised
      Be Careful What You Wish For: Inflation Is Much Higher Than Advertised
      Oct. 5, 2017 10:23 AM ET
      Charles Hugh Smith
      “1. Big-ticket expenses such as rent, healthcare, and higher education – expenses that run into the thousands or tens of thousands of dollars annually – are severely underweighted or mis-reported. While rents are soared, the CPI uses an arcane (and misleading) measure of housing costs: owners’ equivalent rent. Why not just measure actual rents paid and actual mortgages/property taxes/home insurance premiums paid?”

      – There’s so much disinformation, obfuscation, and outright lying about the economy and assoc. indicators, that it’s really hard to know the truth.
      CPI and COLA under-report inflation. IMHO, it’s all about money printing and the money supply, which as we look at FED POMO and “Not-QE”, is again growing by leaps and bounds. BTW, the Fed’s “Not-QE” is really debt monetization or DM. They’re not even trying to hide the fact now that they’re buying Federal debt (i.e. U.S. Treasuries). The recent repo operations are again oversubscribed; a symptom of too much Federal debt. Buy hey, stocks are up today, so “everything is awesome!”

      “A trillion here, a trillion there and pretty soon you’re talking about real money.” – Daniel Hannan (inflation adjusted quote).

  19. Corporations binged on cheap credit offered by the bankers who were the sole beneficiaries of the trillions of “stimulus” created out of thin air by central bankers to reinflate global asset bubbles and Ponzi markets; now the IMF warns that this $19 trillion corporate debt burden – which went mainly for stock buy-backs and speculative “investments” – is a time bomb. No kidding, IMF. Heckova job, Ben, Janet & Jerome.

    https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/oct/16/global-economy-faces-19tn-corporate-debt-timebomb-warns-imf

    1. The IMF is “the central banker’s bank” and so this alarm is a) way too late, and b) extremely disingenuous. Analogous to closing the barn door after the horse is already gone. The IMF knows everything the CBs know. Just trying to misdirect blame with this whole thing blows up in their/our faces. Elvis left the building a long time ago…

      1. Correction: BIS is “the central banker’s bank”. Pretty sure the IMF knew the score a long time ago as well.

    2. – Just saw this.

      https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/oops-imf-admits-policy-it-was-pushing-years-has-led-world-edge-disaster

      Oops: IMF Admits Policy It Was Pushing For Years Has Led World To Edge Of Disaster

      by Tyler Durden
      Thu, 10/17/2019 – 08:45
      Submitted by Michael Every of Rabobank

      Lower for loooonger

      “The institution known for being a staunch supporter of easy monetary policy has just realized that things are getting tricky.”

      “It’s a big club, and you ain’t in it.” – George Carlin

    1. “… £170m taken out of farmers’ pockets between November 2018 and August 2019.”

      Just who put that money in their pockets?

    2. When I was in the UK I went with the relatives a few times to Tesco. The prices I saw for beef were mind boggling, almost $30 USD for a pound of tenderloin. Their prices could stand to drop a bit.

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