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The Runaway Train Will Stop, Eventually — Abruptly

A report from the Wall Street Journal on Nashville Tennessee. “This city has been a poster child for economic development, the good and the bad. Tax breaks and cash incentives have flowed. Tourists, sports teams and conventioneers have come. Hotels and restaurants have bloomed. Home prices rose; public services sputtered; traffic clogged. ‘People say, ‘With all these cranes in the sky, how did we run out of money?’ Nashville Mayor John Cooper, a Democrat, told me.”

From Bisnow on New York. “A total of $22.4B worth of commercial properties sold in the first half of the year, per a Real Estate Board of New York analysis. Multifamily was particularly diminished — total dollar volume fell 37% between the first half of 2018 and 2019, and transactions dropped 31%. ‘I would like to represent to you that the decline in investment sales was an aberration and won’t be repeated. Our fear, though, is that it’s the start of a trend,’ said REBNY President Jim Whelan.”

“JLL Chairman of New York Investment Sales Bob Knakal said that his firm’s figures suggest this year on pace to see $18.7B worth of investment sales properties priced over $10M in Manhattan to sell by the end of 2019. That represents a 34% drop from 2018 and 67% down from the peak of 2015. ‘There are significant headwinds, from a policy perspective,’ Knakal told Bisnow. ‘Until prices become the new normal, then you get seller capitulation. [But] at the early stages, it’s difficult for sellers to accept the lower price today than they could’ve got yesterday.'”

From Senior Housing News. “Ventas’ senior housing portfolio performance has lagged throughout 2019. That performance took a turn for the worse in the third quarter of 2019. A combination of market dynamics, particularly on pricing, surprised Ventas’ operating partners in Q3. Those conditions worsened over the course of the quarter, with occupancy taking a ‘precipitous leg down’ at the end of September, Ventas CEO Debra Cafaro said Friday on an the earnings call for the Chicago-based real estate investment trust.”

Meanwhile, price competition with new supply drove wider re-leasing spreads year-over-year, Ventas CFO Bob Probst said during the earnings call. As for why pricing became more aggressive than anticipated, Ventas did not offer a definitive answer. Capital One analyst Daniel Bernstein suggested that senior housing communities that opened in the last three years might still be struggling to reach stabilization as they are hitting their covenants on construction loans, propelling them to offer deeper rent concessions.”

“An analyst’s note from Green Street Advisors noted that this is the 17th straight quarter of year-over-year occupancy declines. ‘Unfortunately, the supply/demand imbalance hits not only occupancy, but also rents, which continue to eke out only slightly positive gains year-over-year,’ the note read. The poor SHOP performance reminded Cafaro that, even at this stage in her career, she can be surprised. ‘It’s amazing to be at this stage and grade and still be learning good lessons,’ she said.”

The Lansing City Pulse in Michigan. “Everywhere you look near Michigan State University, developers seem to be doubling down on luxury housing geared toward college students. The question it all poses is, how long can this building boom last? And what’s to happen to other student housing complexes on the north edge of the city? Is East Lansing headed for a bust? Bob Trezise, CEO of the Lansing Economic Area Partnership says no. ‘There probably is a student housing bubble but I think it’s a much more nuanced issue than that.'”

From Greenville Online in North Carolina. “$1,200 a night. That was the cost of a two-bedroom rental condo during the Florida State University football game in Clemson. Twenty minutes south of Clemson in Townville, Mary Brock said she was booked up for Clemson’s homecoming months ago and that she rented her four-bedroom house on Lake Hartwell to a group of girl friends for $295 a night for the FSU game. While she declined to say how much income Airbnb brings in every year, Brock said renting eases the stress of a second mortgage. ‘I just see it as a way for the house to help pay for itself.'”

From City Lab on Mississippi. “Earlier this month, more than 59,000 college football fans descended on Mississippi State University’s campus in Starkville, Mississippi, to watch the Louisiana State Tigers take on the home team. In a city of just over 25,000 souls, hundreds of places to stay are available to book across Airbnb, VRBO, Homeaway, and other online booking platforms.”

“With the growing popularity of Airbnb, game-day housing is a big enough industry that some rental platforms are solely devoted to accommodating those travelers. It’s just one of many outgrowths from the massive money-making machine that is American college football. But as in many larger cities grappling with tourism spikes, some college communities are also dealing with the downsides of their seasonal magnetism. Disruptive noise, safety concerns, and scant parking are common refrains among locals besieged by weekend football crowds.”

“Describing a rented house next to hers that had a revolving door of fans last year, Starkville homeowner Julia Baca complained to her board of aldermen earlier this year. ‘No one would call that a neighbor,’ she said, according to a local newspaper. ‘One would call that a hotel.'”

From Vox on Washington DC. “Justin Pierce is a 43-year-old real estate investor who works in the DC region and occasionally writes about housing for the Washington Post. ‘I came up in the business thinking that the prices of the homes should be dictated by the income of the community,’ he said while sitting in the lobby of an apartment building his company built in Arlington, Virginia, where millennials lounge on sofas and a draft kombucha machine is on display. ‘I still like to keep that in mind,’ he said. ‘I keep that in my arithmetic. But the prices just aren’t justified by that math anymore, and it’s become really hard to calculate the value.'”

“Increasingly, Pierce struggles to make sense of his real estate projects in the metro area. The prices of unrenovated homes have climbed too high, the profit margins are too slim. Markets across the country are being ‘juiced’ by development dollars at a time in which, economically speaking, ‘maybe we should be going into our natural drawback cycle,’ he says.”

“Twenty years into this grand experiment, residents are bucking against what all this growth has wrought: high rents, displacement, and a gutting of the very character of their cities. In some US cities, the squeeze has begun to hit the very people who helped spur this urban development in the first place, the very people that city after city are working so hard to attract.”

“That unrelenting growth doesn’t affect only poor and middle-class urban residents. My wife and I recently spent the better part of year perusing the housing stock in Washington, our hometown. What we found was baffling. An otherwise decent-sized row house in the once impoverished neighborhood of Bloomingdale was awkwardly divided, each condominium going for $750,000. An exceedingly narrow, turret shaped townhouse on a beat-down street in Petworth, the second floor not quite level, a cool $690,000. A cute bungalow with a nice lawn in isolated Brookland — nothing to walk to, no shops or cafes — $625,000.”

“‘The previous owner paid something in the 300s just four years ago, can you believe it?’ our real estate agent said.”

“‘I think there is already evidence that it’s slowing,’ Pierce, the DC area developer, said. ‘You can already see that some of these houses have stagnated. They wanted $600,000 for them, but now they’re down to 540 because they’re trying to get the house sold. They’re not getting snatched up the way they were for a time.'”

“‘Prices will go down,’ said Aristotle Theresa, a civil rights attorney in Washington, DC, ‘particularly in black neighborhoods. We’ve already seen the slowdown in development in DC … and, you know, DC lost people last year.’ Pierce predicts a real estate downturn. ‘The runaway train will stop, eventually — abruptly,’ he said.”

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This Post Has 115 Comments

  1. ‘People say, ‘With all these cranes in the sky, how did we run out of money?’

    A real estate bubble makes you poor and then it pops.

  2. ‘I keep that in my arithmetic. But the prices just aren’t justified by that math anymore, and it’s become really hard to calculate the value’

    It’s interesting to observe people who aren’t really tuned into the mania as they slowly realize, “hey this is some fudged up sh!t going on here.”

    ‘Increasingly, Pierce struggles to make sense of his real estate projects in the metro area. The prices of unrenovated homes have climbed too high, the profit margins are too slim. Markets across the country are being ‘juiced’ by development dollars at a time in which, economically speaking, ‘maybe we should be going into our natural drawback cycle’

    The Vox article is interesting. Again they go back to this Richard Florida ass-hat and navel gazing about neo-liberal urban blah blah. It’s just a bubble Vox. There should never be a “runaway train” for shacks.

    1. “It’s interesting to observe people who aren’t really tuned into the mania as they slowly realize, ‘hey this is some fudged up sh!t going on here.’”

      These pukes are just following a script (written by others).

      An observation of Charles Mackay …

      Men, it has been well said, think in herds; it will be seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, and one by one.

    2. Watching minorities continue to fall for to the “conservatives are evil” claptrap from Democrats / liberals and keep on voting for them when they consistently get handed crap sandwiches like this in return is tragic and frustrating.

      1. That’s a good point. But it got me thinking that the republicans are kinda lucky that the dems happily work for the REIC so that they don’t have to. They surely would as well, if called upon.

        1. Agree — it probably doesn’t make any difference which party owns this one, only that it just happens that trendy urbanization and casting of aspersions at suburbia / exurbia has been driven more by folks on the left, judging by voting patterns.

  3. Multifamily was particularly diminished — total dollar volume fell 37% between the first half of 2018 and 2019, and transactions dropped 31%. ‘I would like to represent to you that the decline in investment sales was an aberration and won’t be repeated. Our fear, though, is that it’s the start of a trend,’ said REBNY President Jim Whelan.”

    It’s dead, Jim.

  4. ‘‘I would like to represent to you that the decline in investment sales was an aberration and won’t be repeated. Our fear, though, is that it’s the start of a trend…Until prices become the new normal, then you get seller capitulation. [But] at the early stages, it’s difficult for sellers to accept the lower price today than they could’ve got yesterday’

    Observe as NYC slowly realizes just how fooked they really are.

  5. ‘Those conditions worsened over the course of the quarter, with occupancy taking a ‘precipitous leg down’ at the end of September…senior housing communities that opened in the last three years might still be struggling to reach stabilization as they are hitting their covenants on construction loans, propelling them to offer deeper rent concessions’

    ‘this is the 17th straight quarter of year-over-year occupancy declines…even at this stage in her career, she can be surprised. ‘It’s amazing to be at this stage and grade and still be learning good lessons’

    The senior housing debacle has been baked in the cake for years now. A classic example of the “experts” being the last to know.

    1. “A classic example of the ‘experts’ being the last to know.”

      Or they are the first to know but are the last to tell you what they know. (Unless you are fortunate enough to be plugged into their private club.)

  6. “JLL Chairman of New York Investment Sales Bob Knakal said that his firm’s figures suggest this year on pace to see $18.7B worth of investment sales properties priced over $10M in Manhattan to sell by the end of 2019. That represents a 34% drop from 2018 and 67% down from the peak of 2015.

    Whoa whoa whoa, what is this?!! You mean to tell me that the Manhattan housing bubble peaked in 2015 and has been headed downhill ever since? B…b…but the REIC shills quoted incessantly in the financial media never said anything about 2015 being the high-water mark for the housing bubble.

    My childlike faith in our Real Journalists and the “experts” they cite has been irrevocably shattered. Maybe that conspiracy-mongering Mr. Ben Jones and his coterie of crackpots over at the HBB were right all along.

  7. ‘Until prices become the new normal, then you get seller capitulation. [But] at the early stages, it’s difficult for sellers to accept the lower price today than they could’ve got yesterday.’

    Sounds like deflation is in the pipeline. No wonder the Fed peops are panicking.

      2. My guess is the Fed is going to become the largest real estate owner in the country.

        It’s that or take our medicine. And we chose ANYTHING over taking our medicine starting in 2008-9. Otherwise People Who Matter will take a beating that might never end.

  8. Boots on the ground in DC, care to corroborate?

    FYI a drop from $600K to $540K is -10%.

    “‘I think there is already evidence that it’s slowing,’ Pierce, the DC area developer, said. ‘You can already see that some of these houses have stagnated. They wanted $600,000 for them, but now they’re down to 540 because they’re trying to get the house sold. They’re not getting snatched up the way they were for a time.’”

    1. Taxpayer has his head firmly planted up his…

      Every bubble area falls for this. It has an after the fact justification, I’ve mentioned this before. In north Texas in the 80s’s we were the coolest, best richest most kick ass place on the planet. DFW was the hottest RE market worldwide 5 years in a row. We had the hit TV show, America’s team. Sports illustrated said we had 8 out of 10 of the hottest college girls in the country. When it all blew up many of us wondered, how the heck did we think this sh!t hole was any thing but?

      Nashville is the “it” city”. They’ve got both kinds of music: country and western! But they’re broke.

      It’s the same with DC. Oh the gubernment! Now it’s sinking like a turd in well. They all do. Utah is a sh!t hole, I’ve been there. Most of California is a sh!t hole. I know they don’t like it when you point out how poor they are but facts are facts.

      1. It’s obvious, but worth restating, that one of the key artifacts of the Housing Bubble is the mismatch between a glut of luxury properties and a surfeit of impoverished households. Federally guaranteed subprime mortgages can only go so far to bridge the great divide between the supply and demand sides of the market before the bridge eventually collapses.

      2. Utah is a sh!t hole, I’ve been there.

        Thank you. Please do whatever you can to keep more people moving here.

        1. And why is that? Like Nashville is finding out, all this boom ain’t so great. You’ve had your boom, now enjoy the bust.

        2. My impression is that the high end of the Wasatch Front is toast. My belief is informed by personal experience, as my inlaws got maybe 35% less on the recent sale of their beautiful home high above the Great Salt Lake than it supposedly would have sold for at the pre-2008 peak.

          1. To know a crater is coming, you only need to see this:

            ‘An exceedingly narrow, turret shaped townhouse on a beat-down street in Petworth, the second floor not quite level, a cool $690,000. A cute bungalow with a nice lawn in isolated Brookland — nothing to walk to, no shops or cafes — $625,000’

            ‘The previous owner paid something in the 300s just four years ago, can you believe it?’

          3. Utah lead the country in mortgage fraud last decade, by a lot. I worked on a foreclosure of some Mormons in a manufactured shack near Prescott back then. They moved in, made one payment and flopped out with their kids for a few years. Neighbors didn’t like them. They left a huge mess.

          5. I sure hope you’re right. If we get rid of gas cars, the Wasatch Front will be beautiful again without the inversion. I love that area. It is absolutely gorgeous place. I hope there is a big crater, because I would be a buyer!

          6. If we get rid of gas cars, the Wasatch Front will be beautiful again without the inversion.

            Are fireplaces and charcoal grills and all 2 stroke engines illegal yet?

          7. Are fireplaces and charcoal grills and all 2 stroke engines illegal yet?

            Yes.

            “The Utah Department of Environmental Quality’s Division of Air Quality (DAQ) reminds residents that wood-burning restrictions go into effect November 1, 2018, and urges Utahns to use online and mobile tools to monitor daily PM2.5 levels. The fines for burning wood or other solid fuel devices on mandatory action days have increased to $150 for the first violation of the burning restrictions, and additional violations will be subject to increased penalties.”

            https://deq.utah.gov/communication/news/wood-burning-restrictions-november-1-2018

            Keep in mind though, vehicle emission are the largest source of pollution by far. Doesn’t mean we don’t need to address wood burning fireplaces (3000x more pollution than nat gas) or shift to electric lawn tools.

        3. “has keep more people FROM moving here” . The common British mistake is to omit the “from”. Us Americans are better than that.

      3. “Sports illustrated said we had 8 out of 10 of the hottest college girls in the country.”

        I believe that assertion. Is there something special in the Ogallala Aquifer’s waters?

  9. I don’t suppose there is a way to search old blog posts??

    I’d like to find the link to the images I posted of the 12-page flyer that Coldwell Banker sent me (and everyone else I presume) a few months. I threw it up on imgur without and account and didn’t bookmark it.

    The reason I’m curious – I got another one in the mail the other day, and noticed a couple things. The big one is that I remember calling out the page with 66 or so smiling faces – looked like a school class picture – as being a hell of “payroll” to support. The picture has re-arranged a bit in this one, and I’d say staff size is down 10%. A sure sign of a ‘booming market’ no?

    Also, it looks like over half the listings in their flyer have had their price cut already, in just the couple weeks since this was sent to the print shop. A quick review out to Zillow to look at the area was illuminating. tl;dr DOM is up all over, sellers of unsold inventory appear to be stubborn. over $2M is looking frosty. And I found a couple very curious rentals (Waterfront for barely more than the property taxes? curious). I don’t watch the market as closely or post here as much right now – my contracting gig has kept me rather busy.

  11. Does anyone know how to get the full price history off Zilldo? This home was reportedly built in 1996. For some odd reason, Zilldo only reports the downsloping side of the Housing Bubble price history.

    9046 La Jolla Shores Ln
    La Jolla, CA 92037
    5 beds 8 baths 9,083 sqft
    Off Market
    Zestimate®: $9,035,018
    Rent Zestimate®: $35,151 /mo
    Est. Refi Payment: $33,688/mo
    Note: This property is not currently for sale or for rent. The description below may be from a previous listing.
    Designed by noted architect, Ken Ronchetti, this amazing 9083 square foot, five bedroom home on a 2.4 acre site is perched on an ocean bluff just south of La Jolla Farms with a view of Black’s Beach and the North Shore white water coastline that is unequaled in La Jolla. View the canyon, coastline (much like an aerial view of Pebble Beach), La Jolla Cove and sunsets from this circular masterpiece with dramatic pool, spa and waterfalls. Quality abounds with luxurious materials and finishes, (see sup)

    Facts and Features
    Type: Single Family
    Year Built: 1996
    Parking: 7 spaces
    Lot: 2.41 acres
    Beds: 5
    Baths: 6 full, 2 half
    Heating: Forced air, Radiant
    Appliances included:
    Dishwasher, Freezer, Garbage disposal, Microwave, Range / Oven, Refrigerator, Washer
    Unit count: 1
    Structure type:
    Contemporary
    Single Family
    Roof type: Other
    Exterior material: Stucco
    Last remodel year: 1996
    Stories: 2
    View: Park, Water
    Parcel #: 3440301300
    Parking: Attached Garage, 7 spaces
    Last sold: Feb 2016 for $12,440,000
    Living room
    Activity On Zillow
    Views in the past 30 days:
    117
    3 shoppers saved this home
    9046 La Jolla Shores Ln
    La Jolla, CA 92037
    Off Market
    Zestimate®: $9,035,018
    Rent Zestimate®: $35,151 /mo
    Est. Refi Payment: $33,688/mo
    See current rates
    Note: This property is not currently for sale or for rent. The description below may be from a previous listing.
    Designed by noted architect, Ken Ronchetti, this amazing 9083 square foot, five bedroom home on a 2.4 acre site is perched on an ocean bluff just south of La Jolla Farms with a view of Black’s Beach and the North Shore white water coastline that is unequaled in La Jolla. View the canyon, coastline (much like an aerial view of Pebble Beach), La Jolla Cove and sunsets from this circular masterpiece with dramatic pool, spa and waterfalls. Quality abounds with luxurious materials and finishes, (see sup)
    Last remodel year:
    1996
    Activity On Zillow
    Views in the past 30 days:
    117
    3 shoppers saved this home
    Utilities
    Green Energy
    Great solar potential
    Sun Number™: 77.13

    Zestimate
    $9,035,018
    Zestimate Range
    $6.87M – $12.02M
    Last 30 Day Change
    -$345,847 (-3.7 %)
    One Year Forecast
    $9,035,922 (+0.0 %)
    Zestimate history & details
    Price / Tax History
    Date Event Price
    2/3/2016 Sold $12,440,000
    11/1/2015 Sold $12,000,000
    8/19/2015 Listed for sale $13,599,000
    2/27/2015 Listing removed $14,500,000
    6/5/2014 Price change $14,500,000
    9/23/2013 Listed for sale $15,500,000
    8/11/2013 Listing removed $17,000,000
    10/15/2012 Price change $17,000,000
    2/28/2012 Listed for sale $19,000,000
    Source: Agent
    $/sqft: $2,092

    See More Facts and Features
    Home Value
    Zestimate
    $9,035,018
    Zestimate Range
    $6.87M – $12.02M
    Last 30 Day Change
    -$345,847 (-3.7 %)
    One Year Forecast
    $9,035,922 (+0.0 %)
    Zestimate history & details
    Price / Tax History
    Price HistoryTax History
    Date Event Price
    2/3/2016 Sold $12,440,000
    11/1/2015 Sold $12,000,000
    8/19/2015 Listed for sale $13,599,000
    2/27/2015 Listing removed $14,500,000
    6/5/2014 Price change $14,500,000
    9/23/2013 Listed for sale $15,500,000
    8/11/2013 Listing removed $17,000,000
    10/15/2012 Price change $17,000,000
    2/28/2012 Listed for sale $19,000,000
    Source: Agent
    $/sqft: $2,092

    1. Apologies for the bad editing. For some reason, when I pasted it the info from the listing, lots of the information showed up multiple times.

      But the big news is the price history. $19 million down to $9 million over the span of seven years is quite a haircut, and suggests a massive stealth crash underway in the La Jolla market if this case is whatsoever representative.

      2. Check out this comp. If it’s currently worth $6.9 million, why won’t it sell for $5.7 million?

        Makes absolutely no sense.

        9431 La Jolla Farms Rd, La Jolla, CA 92037
        For Sale $5,725,000
        4 bd 4+ ba 7,286 sq ft
        9431 La Jolla Farms Rd, La Jolla, CA 92037
        Contact Agent
        43 Days On Market
        Property History
        This property was sold twice in the last 11 years.
        Today
        Estimated at $6,861,700
        Price History
        2009 Aug 19
        Sold for $6,550,000
        2009 Apr 23
        Listed for $8,900,000

      3. Thanks for sharing these. I really do like La Jolla as i have family that lives there. Not sure if redpilledredhead has interest in La Jolla but it may be an area to wait for if so. High end is in full CR8R mode as I see it

        1. Those places I posted are representative of the high end of La Jolla luxury. We are talking about cliff overlook homes within walking distance of the beach. When these are valued in the market at below 50% of their highest post-2009 collapse wishing prices, you can be certain that there is a lot of CR8R in the pipeline.

        2. Not sure if redpilledredhead has interest in La Jolla

          I looked at a handful of small rental homes in the Bird Rock area of La Jolla back in 2004 when I was a single professional with a Jack Russell terrier. Different time, different needs. Poway USD is the best school district for our son’s needs so that’s where we are and that’s where we’ll stay. As much as I wanted to keep and live in the Encinitas house, it doesn’t financially or practically make sense. Hwy helped me come to terms with that. All the better if people like the nasty anklebiter don’t realize the full spectrum of what’s available in Poway.

          1. We went to the Mt. Carmel High School Marching Band Tournament lsst night, where all five Poway Unified School District high school bands performed. It was so inspirational to see all of those talented kids out on the field representing their schools.

          2. It was so inspirational to see all of those talented kids out on the field representing their schools.

            When I was a student at Torrey Pines HS, the only two things that mattered were academics and sports. I’m thrilled that my son is learning to play the recorder in school this year.

          3. I get it. Just saying that patience may reward you with something that could have previously been out of your reach 😉

          4. Poway USD is the best school district for our son’s needs

            To illustrate (because it may help someone who reads but doesn’t comment):

            My son was first evaluated by the Del Mar Union School District. DMUSD had 2 ASD preschool classrooms where everything was sparkling new including the teachers. It also had some weird privacy rules; parents weren’t allowed in the classrooms and had to schedule observations.

            Poway USD had 15 ASD preschool classrooms. His preschool teacher and staff had decades of experience and had been working together as a team for 7-8 years. They welcomed parents into the classroom. It was easy to overlook that the school was in the least desirable part of town. He was there for 3 years and the experience could not have been better.

            I recently looked into the Encinitas USD. They don’t have any special day classes for ASD students at the elementary school level.

            Here’s how the high school district for areas including Del Mar, Solana Beach, Encinitas and Rancho Santa Fe treats their special needs students: San Dieguito school district parents seek special education changes

      1. They seem to have changed there “zildoEstimate” algorithm since they got involved in RE purchases…

    3. “Does anyone know how to get the full price history off Zilldo“

      Try using thewaybackmachine.com i made a comment below to another post of yours that eludes to why i think they started hiding deep price history.

      1. There’s obviously a mass conspiracy in the REIC to cover up the reality that we are coming to the end and final downslope of a historic mania. Hiding the much lower prices for which homes sold two decades ago helps deceive buyers into the false belief that today’s mania prices are normal.

  13. Just did an interesting search on Zilldo. I requested all San Diego County listings of homes for sale, and it comes back with 33,222, which IIRC is more homes than were in inventory at any point in the pre-2007 Phase 1 Housing Bubble collapse period. I sorted these by “Newest”, which revealed a stunning number, maybe in the hundreds, of new listings flooding into the market within the past few days, just ahead of the ice cold holiday sales season. If this search result is indicative of where the market is headed, then it seems a massive crater is taking shape in San Diego County home sales.

    Buyers are cautioned to exercise restraint, at the risk of otherwise catching themselves falling knives.

    Sellers are advised to list now and slash the price until a buyer is found, at risk of otherwise getting priced in forever.

    1. I just spent a few minutes making sure that I was interpreting my search results correctly. I counted over 500 homes either newly listed over the past 24 hours, or planned to be listed by November. If residential real estate were an ocean, this would be a tsunami. And the market is getting flooded at the worst possible time of year, just ahead of the holiday season, when buyers are generally enjoying the holidays, not looking for a shack to buy. Many of these homes will either sit on the market indefinitely or until the listing is withdrawn, or else will only sell at a steep doscount to their list prices.

      1. I counted over 500 homes either newly listed over the past 24 hours ?

        I am Seeing the same thing on the multi family side…In Small apartment buildings (4-20 units) the inventory is way, way up in San Diego…I am not talking just class C apartments…I am talking about the best of the best that San Diego has to offer including Coronado…

          2. There’s not enough money in the world to make me want to wake up next to that narcissistic horseface every morning.

          4. There’s not enough money in the world to make me want to wake up next to that narcissistic horseface every morning.

            For sure. Also not interested in his ex-wife.

      2. Full disclosure: It looks like I may have inadvertently chosen a wider search area than San Diego County when counting the number of new listings. However, my point about hundreds of new listings in SoCal coming on the market just ahead of the holiday season still stands. There are not going to be enough people in the market for many of these places to sell for their owner’s wishing price.

        1. If you sort the San Diego listings by price, 240+ homes show up with no price, and some combination of “foreclosure,” “pre-foreclosure,” or “auction” on the listing.

          Why bother listing places that are just going to be sold at auction? Is this to aggregate bidders?

      3. Same up here. Last tuesday i noticed 25 new listings for SFH just in my town. Thats a LOT more than “normal”

    2. Speaking of S.D., I just heard of an acquaintance who wants to refinance (just to get a lower rate I think, no cash out) a house there but needs to bring an additional 5% of the original purchase to the table in order to get it done. I doubt that’s an origination fee, sounds more like the lender saying “You don’t got 20% equity any more.” It’s basically a margin call. This is, undoubtedly, what the beginning of the end looks like. Price declines are starting to effect the economic lifeblood – borrowing! Just one anecdote, but it is a real life example of dominoes falling.

      2. “It’s basically a margin call.”

        I thought a margin call was a demand for full repayment of loans used to purchase assets when said asset prices are falling.

        This sounds more like an insurance policy against future price declines.

        1. A margin call is the broker’s demand that an investor deposit additional money or securities so that the account is brought up to the minimum value, known as the maintenance margin.

    1. Interesting that during the decline interest rates have dropped a point too. Can’t imagine the carnage if loans were 4.65 again.

        1. I guess you don’t have faith in the globalist central banking cartel’s efforts to keep rates below zero forever?

  21. After the Deep State media flagship, The Washington Post, sadly announced that “religious scholar” (and ISIS leader) Abu Umar al-Baghdadi had died (due to a US special forces raid ordered by Bad Orange Man), they’ve been getting blowtorched by non-Real Journalists.

    https://twitter.com/hashtag/WashPostOrbits?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%7Ctwcamp%5Etweetembed%7Ctwterm%5E1188480396595552259&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.zerohedge.com%2Fgeopolitical%2Fmsm-pans-al-baghdadi-takedown-praise-religious-scholar-promising-young-footballer

    1. Real Journalists.

      In case anyone forgot, the Washington Post is owned by Jeff Bezos, CEO of Amazon. When you shop at Amazon, you indirectly give money to Real Journalists. If you stop shopping there, you stop giving them money. It’s not that complicated…

        1. I confess that I have yet to cancel my Amazon Prime membership. I, however, do not and will not ever have a “smart speaker” in my home or enable the “personal assistant” on my cell phone. Besides the convenience of delivery, Amazon Music saves me from having to listen to vapid and shallow radio shows. Alternative suggestions are welcome.

          1. Amazon is what we have now, all the retail closing down leaves us with little choice. Im all for supporting local business and i do when it comes to food and hardware but now im hearing our local Ace Hardware is closing. Next will likely be the locally owned grocery stores and whole foods / amazon will be my only choice. Its sad but its what it is.

          2. I’ve never bought anything from amazon. I go to stores all the time and they are full of people. I don’t know where this idea comes from, it’s imaginary.

          3. I wholeheartedly agree with you ben. The local grocery stores are full of people and i am a believer in buying local first. The closures of toys r us, OSH, ace hardware leave me little options other than the chains or online for things i used to be able to get locally. My local area is conforming to powers out of my control and i have 2 options: buy from the gorillas or live without

          6. Sirius-XM

            Had it. Too pricey and didn’t like the stations. It made keeping my Amazon Prime membership more palatable.

    3. LMAO — these Twitter storms are hilarious sometimes.

      The one with AOC crying in front of the fence was a hoot as well.

    1. Good one.
      Did you see Katie Hopkins’ tweet(s)?
      Katie Hopkins Twitter
      When we were visiting relatives in Bradford, England (link is to documentary about incestuous marriages, tragic, probably mid or late 70’s and we asked them what’s with all the Pakistanis here? They said, “Oooh, they’re luuvly people.” At that time in NYC we were being driven out of the building I grew up in (no palace) by illegal aliens, so our response was “Oh, yeah? Just wait.”

  24. This week will be a bad week to be homeless in Denver. It will not get above freezing again here until Thursday.

    So you moved here with no job to smoke weed and panhandle on the 16th Street Mall? Maybe it’s time to move on. Free bus tickets to Los Angeles and San Francisco for everyone!

    1. “Good thing that everybody who bought there in the last five years put at least 20% down…”

      Good thing the Fed stands ready with fire hoses in hand to make underwater loanowners whole.

  27. ‘So what is driving the influx of apartments? Mostly millennials and Baby Boomers. “These developers are investing millions, hundreds of millions of dollars in these projects because they know there’s a market for them,” Tesoro said. “Young people today are more transient, they’re not really interested in buying a house.”

    ‘In addition, as Baby Boomers age and find themselves in a position of no longer needing or wanting a single family house on an acre of property, they too are attracted to luxury rentals, Tesoro said.’

    https://www.trumbulltimes.com/news/article/Apartments-have-become-major-campaign-issue-in-14566244.php

    The REIC has the new paradigm sketch down to a tee.

    1. Great hard-hitting analysis by our hard-hitting politicians. One could argue that EVERYTHING is being driven by Millenials and Baby Boomers. Because the hear the news tell it, Gen X doesn’t exist.

    2. “Young people today are more transient, they’re not really interested in buying a house.”

      ‘In addition, as Baby Boomers age and find themselves in a position of no longer needing or wanting a single family house on an acre of property, they too are attracted to luxury rentals, Tesoro said.’

      So…when are the prices going to fall on the boomer properties? If I was a boomer I’d be trying to sell as quickly as possible when I read stuff like that. Unless I think I can die there.

  28. Globalist propaganda outlet WaPo still getting blasted for its obit of “austere religious teacher” al-Baghdadi. The comments on Twitter and parody obits mocking them are priceless, and show the massive disconnect between the lying, mendacious elites and their carefully crafted Narrative, vs. what real Americans believe and think.

    https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2019/10/28/abu-bakr-al-baghdadi-washington-post-austere-headline/2483340001/

      1. After the grisly discovery of Dahmer’s handiwork and his arrest, his landlord had to rent out his apartment again. The ad said, “Apartment for rent. Roommates included. Some assembly required.”

        I slay me….

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