thehousingbubble@gmail.com
Blog

Advice For Other Sellers: Don’t Wait, If You’re Gonna Do It, Do It Now

A report from Marketplace. “‘Marketplace’ host Kai Ryssdal spoke with Vivian Gueler, chief financial officer of Pacific Trust Group in Los Angeles, about the mortgage brokerage industry and the housing market. Kai Ryssdal: Every single time we’ve gotten you on the phone, I’ve said, ‘How’s business?’ And you’ve said, ‘Oh my God, we’re unbelievably busy.’ But is that still the case? Vivian Gueler: Oh my God, no. It’s basically come to a screeching halt.”

From Forbes. “‘With home sales under pressure, the parabolic increase in house prices will soon peter out, and some price declines by mid-next year seem more than likely,’ says Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. ‘With rates now moving quickly higher and affordability and demand being hammered, prices will come under pressure.'”

From Money. “The housing market might be — finally — starting to cool off. In some cities, at least. Here are the top 10 cities where prices have fallen the most, along with the annual change in median listing price as of March: Toledo, Ohio: -18.7%. Rochester, New York: -17%. Detroit, Michigan: -15.4%. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: -13.7%. Springfield, Massachusetts: -5.8%. Tulsa, Oklahoma: -5.0%. Los Angeles, California: -5.0%. Memphis, Tennessee: -4.6%. Chicago, Illinois: -3.7%. Richmond, Virginia: -3.4%.”

From CBS Denver in Colorado. “After a year of record price hikes in real estate across the Denver metro area, sellers are feeling pressure to lower prices. But sellers looking to cash out on that appreciation are facing competition now, said Aurora Realtor Sunny Banka. ‘Things are starting to balance out just a little bit so you have to be a little more realistic.'”

“Banka advised sellers Dale and Loretta Lindsey to drop the asking price for their ranch-style home by $20,000 to $575,000 after just a couple of weeks on the market. Banka said, ‘We’re seeing a few price reductions in certain price ranges and certain areas and a lot of that is due to the increase in the interest rates – which is exactly what the intent of raising the interest rates was to do.  Was to help slow down the market.'”

“After 28 years in their home, rising prices played a role in the Lindseys’ decision to leave Colorado for retirement. Dale Lindsey said, ‘I wanted to go somewhere that was cheaper to live. So we started looking and we ended up here in Missouri.’ Now the Lindseys have advice for other sellers, Loretta said, ‘Don’t wait.  If you’re gonna do it, do it now.  We wondered if we would have been able to get it on the market two weeks even one week quicker than what we did, it would have been sold.'”

“As of April 26, there are 300 active listings in Aurora. Banka added, ‘So we still have an inventory shortage, we are just not seeing the inventory be absorbed as quickly as we were seeing a month or so ago. This is a good opportunity for buyers. They probably will not be in a bidding war.'”

The Bay Area Newsgroup. “‘A rise in interest rates definitely has an impact on buyer psychology,’ said Oscar Wei, economist for the California Association of Realtors. ‘It should have an impact on demand, sales, and, of course, price.'”

“Cupertino agent Ramesh Rao said Silicon Valley buyers have started to adjust their purchasing strategies in light of higher interest rates. More families are choosing to make larger down payments, and maintain a similar amount of monthly cash flow. On a $2 million mortgage, for example, a higher interest rate could cost an additional $1,000 a month. ‘At the end of the day,’ he said, ‘everybody has a limited amount of cash coming in on a monthly basis.'”

The Toronto Star in Canada. “Home prices tumble across the GTA since February peak, with suburban townhomes leading the pack.”

From Canadian Mortgage Trends. “‘Rising rates are a problem and will almost certainly weight significantly on [housing] demand through the remainder of the year unless things change quickly,’ wrote real estate analyst Ben Rabidoux. ‘Resale markets across the country are still exceptionally tight, but we are now seeing a significant inventory build the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2010.'”

From CTV News in Canada. “The scorching hot Ottawa real estate market is cooling due to increased interest rates, according to one veteran realtor. ‘We’re seeing sales are down across Ottawa 25 per cent,’ Marnie Bennett from Bennett Property Shop Realty told CTV News. ‘“Prices are not going to go down but they’re not going to escalate like we’ve been seeing in the past at 27 per cent. We’re likely going to go back to more normal times, maybe nine or ten per cent. …  It won’t be the crazy circus that we’ve had. This is not the U.S. There won’t be a crash. We have one of the best banking systems in the world.'”

“Bennett says the real estate market shifts and changes. ‘We are in a shift now. Listings are up 105% since last year. With each shift or cycle there are different challenges and myths.'”

From Stuff New Zealand. “New Zealand has a buyers’ market sooner than expected, with house sales volumes at the weakest they have been in a decade, CoreLogic says. CoreLogic chief property economist Kelvin Davidson said it would be necessary to go back about a decade to find softer sales results for any given January, February or March.”

“The key drivers for the sales slowdown were fundamental and longer-lasting, he said. ‘The big picture is we’ve probably shifted into a ‘buyer’s market’ already in many parts of the country, sooner than what might have been anticipated. With buyers now feeling they have the upper hand when it comes to offers, it’s no surprise to see that price pressures have faded away too. The momentum has certainly shifted, and some key areas saw values drop in March, including Hamilton, Wellington, Christchurch, and Dunedin,’ he said.”

Related Posts
This Post Has 78 Comments

    1. Turn down the thermostat.

      Eat the bugs and live in the pod, because Zelensky needs $7 billion a month.

  2. ‘We wondered if we would have been able to get it on the market two weeks even one week quicker than what we did, it would have been sold’

    Wa? Are you saying it hasn’t sold?

    Sacré bleu!

  3. Home prices tumble across the GTA since February peak, with suburban townhomes leading the pack

    22%.

  5. ‘the parabolic increase in house prices will soon peter out, and some price declines by mid-next year seem more than likely…prices will come under pressure’

    Rear view mirror Zandi:

    ‘Here are the top 10 cities where prices have fallen the most’

    1. I had to do a double-take to make sure I wasn’t seeing “price rate increase decline” or something like that, but there it was, and in mainstream media no less. Good way to start the day!

    2. The bottom is falling out faster than it did the last time rates hit 5%. Mortgage apps already down to same level.

      Not surprising considering how much prices have gone up since then.

      Are economists the dumbest people on earth? They are clinging to the “it can’t be a bubble because inventory is so low” mantra now. At the height of the tulip craze what kind of inventory do ya think your local florist had for tulip bulbs? Record low inventory is bubble indicator, not a counter indicator. How many cabbage patch dolls were on the shelf at your local toy store at the height of the cabbage patch doll craze?

  6. Orlando, FL Housing Prices Crater 18% YOY As The Toxic Rot Of Subprime Mortgage Defaults Looms Over Florida Housing Market

    https://www.movoto.com/fl/32827/market-trends/

    As one national broker conceded, “We’ve been scraping the bottom of the buyer barrel for 15 years or more. Why do you think mortgage defaults are 600% higher than long term trend?”

  7. ‘we are now seeing a significant inventory build the likes of which we haven’t seen since 2010’

    Harry Potter is spending a lot of time in K-da right now.

  8. ‘A rise in interest rates definitely has an impact on buyer psychology…It should have an impact on demand, sales, and, of course, price’

    I got a question Oscar. (Can I call you Dick Oscar?) Anyway Dick, wa happened to my red hotcakes and shortages?

  9. fed interest rate slowly working its way through the system. I wonder if the 5.37% rate includes the next expected fed rate increase of 50 bps.

    Oh … and ARM are starting to climb. Because what could go wrong with ARM mortgages when inventory is rising


    Total mortgage application volume fell 8.3% last week compared with the previous week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s seasonally adjusted index. Demand is now half of what it was a year ago.

    Rising rates are to blame. The average contract interest rate for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages with conforming loan balances ($647,200 or less) increased to 5.37% from 5.20%, with points rising to 0.67 from 0.66 (including the origination fee) for loans with a 20% down payment. That is the highest rate since 2009. The rate was 3.17% the same week one year ago.

    Higher rates are clearly hitting buyers, despite still strong demand for housing. Mortgage applications to purchase a home fell 8% for the week and were 17% lower than the same week one year ago. This in the heart of the spring housing season.

    “The recent decrease in purchase applications is an indication of potential weakness in home sales in the coming months,” said Joel Kan, an MBA economist.

    Buyers are, however, turning more now to adjustable-rate mortgages, which offer lower interest rates. The average rate on a 5-year ARM was 4.28% last week.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/27/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-doubles-as-interest-rates-hit-the-highest-since-2009.html

  10. The mortgage business has “come to a screeching halt”

    There’s always the casting couch Virginia.

      1. The obligatory moral superiority. It comes with every ridiculous, fascist position these days. Free speech is a right.

        1. The “progressive left” are totalitarian sh*tbag pearl clutchers who couldn’t physically fight their way out of a wet paper bag.

  13. Brainwashed mask wearer threatens Costco employees with pepper spray for not wearing mask!

    https://www.bitchute.com/video/eEdJ1UUaGtzU/

    1 minute.

    In what world does some old fart think he can walk around threatening people over a mouth hankey? This is an example of mass formation psychosis. Or maybe that’s an attempt to explain it. It’s been like a magic spell – black magic.

      1. I saw them in ancient times. They were great. Vaguest recollection of them being dropped by the headliner (don’t remember who it was) because they were getting a greater reception than them; I know they did at the show I saw.

      1. The crazy dude acts like he owns the store, and seems to not realize he is a guest on someone else’s property. Sad…

    2. Life at the SEC: Archegos Capital Management owner Bill Hwang and his former CFO, Patrick Halligan, were arrested at their homes and charged with racketeering conspiracy, securities fraud and wire fraud in connection with a scheme to manipulate the share prices of public companies in order to boost profits.

    3. The Financial Times
      Archegos Capital Management
      Archegos founder Bill Hwang arrested on US fraud charges
      Prosecutors have charged hedge fund manager and former lieutenant Patrick Halligan
      Bill Hwang’s Archegos imploded a year ago and created billions of dollars of losses for major investment banks
      © Emile Wamsteker/Bloomberg
      Eric Platt in New York and Oliver Ralph in London 13 minutes ago

      Bill Hwang, founder of collapsed family office Archegos Capital Management, has been arrested by US authorities, who charged the fund’s top executives with manipulating the prices of securities in their portfolios.

      The indictment, unsealed on Wednesday, accuses Huang and former chief financial officer Patrick Halligan of using Archegos as an “instrument of market manipulation and fraud”, which had “far-reaching consequences for other participants in the United States securities markets”.

      The case, brought by federal prosecutors in Manhattan, marks the first criminal charges against Hwang, one of the so-called Tiger Cub veterans of Julian Robertson’s Tiger Management fund whose little-known fund rattled some of Wall Street’s biggest financial institutions when it imploded a year ago.
      …

    1. The only reason these globalists re-opened the schools is so they can steal the children from their parents and pump them full of hormones.

      The Democrat Party platform for Election Year 2022 is: we’re gonna mutilate and rape your kids.

      “They’re not sending their best”

  17. Given that interest rates just recently bounced hard off a 500 year low, and many end users who might want to buy at bubble prices find themselves priced out at 5%+ mortgage rates, is this a historically horrible time to buy a house?

    1. Home prices surged nearly 20% in February from a year ago
      By Khristopher J. Brooks
      April 26, 2022 / 2:02 PM / MoneyWatch

      Home prices across the U.S. continue to soar this year. The average cost of a home shot up 19.8% between February 2021 and February 2022, according to the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index, a closely watched barometer of housing costs.

      The steep climb in residential real estate prices during the economic recovery that started in 2020 after the initial COVID-19 outbreak is pushing more middle-class Americans out of the housing market, economists warn.

      Prices are rising chiefly because surging demand for homes far outstrips supply, with housing inventories declining during the pandemic as builders pulled back on construction. Builders completed construction of 1.3 million homes in February, down nearly 3% from the year-ago period, according to federal housing data.

      https://www.cbsnews.com/news/home-prices-february-2022-up-20-percent/#app

    2. Redfin Reports Homebuyer Competition Drops for First Time in Six Months Amid Surge in Mortgage Rates, Home Prices
      65% of home offers faced competition in March, down from 67% in February
      April 25, 2022 11:49 AM Eastern Daylight Time

      SEATTLE–(BUSINESS WIRE)–(NASDAQ: RDFN) —Sixty-five percent of home offers written by Redfin agents faced competition on a seasonally adjusted basis in March, according to a new report from Redfin (redfin.com), the technology-powered real estate brokerage. That is down from a revised rate of 66.7% in February, marking the first month-over-month decline since September—a sign that demand is starting to cool as soaring mortgage rates and housing prices prompt some buyers to back out of the market.

      https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20220425005720/en/Redfin-Reports-Homebuyer-Competition-Drops-for-First-Time-in-Six-Months-Amid-Surge-in-Mortgage-Rates-Home-Prices

    3. Notice how all these real estate outfits pump out reports based on stale data to try to lure unsuspecting buyers who missed the news about April’s massive spike in mortgage rates?

      1. Read the handwriting on the wall:

        “Kai Ryssdal: Every single time we’ve gotten you on the phone, I’ve said, ‘How’s business?’ And you’ve said, ‘Oh my God, we’re unbelievably busy.’ But is that still the case? Vivian Gueler: Oh my God, no. It’s basically come to a screeching halt.”

      2. When Zandi switches camps from real estate cheerleader to pessimistic prognosticator, you can stick a fork in it:

        “‘With home sales under pressure, the parabolic increase in house prices will soon peter out, and some price declines by mid-next year seem more than likely,’ says Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi. ‘With rates now moving quickly higher and affordability and demand being hammered, prices will come under pressure.’”

    4. Holy Toledo! Maybe it’s time to relocate back East?

      “Here are the top 10 cities where prices have fallen the most, along with the annual change in median listing price as of March: Toledo, Ohio: -18.7%. Rochester, New York: -17%. Detroit, Michigan: -15.4%. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania: -13.7%. …”

  19. “Cupertino agent Ramesh Rao said Silicon Valley buyers have started to adjust their purchasing strategies in light of higher interest rates. More families are choosing to make larger down payments, and maintain a similar amount of monthly cash flow. On a $2 million mortgage, for example, a higher interest rate could cost an additional $1,000 a month. ‘At the end of the day,’ he said, ‘everybody has a limited amount of cash coming in on a monthly basis.’”

    Don’t forget the bloodbath in the Nasdaq LOL

  20. another sign o’ the times: Starbucks clerks actually greeted me and . . AND …. I kid you not, were pp p ppp pleasant when calling out my name, instead of the usual surly pissed-off attitude so common among the gender studies failed to get a cushy job mob. (and they actually DID call my name, and we joked around for a minute, instead of just slamming the drink on the counter in scowling silence, leaving me to wonder “err, is that my drink?! “)

    now granted, this was Sunday in Yuba City, CA. and the store was the most brightly lite I’ve ever seen inside. painted white which really picked up the suns rays.

    hmm, wait a minute, you mean there might be a correlation between natural sunlight & mood!?
    and the entire staff was smiling, cheerful, & pleasant!?!?!
    why, what kind of anti-woke sorcery is THIS, for St. Hilary’s sake?!

    1. Agreed, SBUX has always been dark. I guess they were going for that smoky-coffeehouse-poetry-slam vibe that was so popular in the woodsy grungy 1990s.

      1. Yuba City: “Home Of The Hookers”.
        err “Honkers”.

        gee officer, I don’t know HOW that got there on the stadium?

        that yearly prank took on a life of its own!

  21. ‘Fauci, who has been the federal government’s public face for its COVID-19 response and rules, told PBS Newshour Tuesday that “we are certainly right now in this country out of the pandemic phase,” according to a PBS transcript. When asked whether there will be an end to the pandemic, he responded that it’s an “unanswerable question.”

    ‘In recent days, the United States has seen a “low level” of COVID-19 cases, Fauci continued. “So, if you’re saying, are we out of the pandemic phase in this country? We are,” he said.’

    ‘After making that statement, Fauci then pushed for people to get COVID-19 vaccines and booster shots. COVID-19 shots “might be” an “every year” occurrence, he proclaimed, adding that it “might be longer, in order to keep that level low.”

    ‘Outside the United States, millions of Chinese people have been forced by the ruling Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to take mandatory COVID-19 tests in Beijing amid a severe, month-long lockdown in Shanghai that has triggered food shortages and human rights violations.’

    ‘A widely circulated video from Shanghai showed a foreigner trying to break through metal barriers onto a Shanghai street, before being pulled back and dragged to the ground by four people in protective hazmat suits.’

    “I want to die,” the man shouted repeatedly in Chinese and English. One of the unknown individuals holding him down responded that “you need to respect the laws and regulations here.”

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/fauci-us-is-right-now-out-of-covid-19-pandemic-phase_4430852.html

    Yer gonna hang little tony.

    1. The Day Of The Rope is coming.

      Globalists, those ropes are for you. There are 7+ billion of us who don’t get invited to Davos every year, we are p*zzed off, and we are going to hunt you down and kill you. The only good globalist is a dead globalist, and that is YOU.

      1. Jesus, this is getting ridic. The medieval serf cared not who was his lord because they were all the same. His feudal obligations came with the land he and his ancestors tilled and had nothing to do with some absentee landlord. The French figured out in 1789 that burning the feudal records of the ancien regime would free them from their burdens faster than changing lords. It’s the systems that are the source of our problem not the distant people who have little control over them. Tear down the systems.

  22. A shanty down the street was listed last week. It already has an offer. I figured with 5% loans that it was going to sit and eventually be sawed and slashed. That said, just one offer, which could evaporate. No bidding war.

  23. Triggered Over Being ‘Misgendered’ By Gynecologist
    Infowars.com

    April 27th 2022, 1:39 pm

    Popular Twitter account Libs of TikTok posted a new video Wednesday showing a transgender individual venting on camera about being “misgendered” by their gynecologist.

    The person, presumably a biological woman taking hormone medication to outwardly appear as a man, explained they had a gynecologist appointment in order to get a birth control device implanted into their arm.

    “My gynecologist is usually pretty… respectful, I’ve only had two appointments but she’s respected me as a trans person,” the individual said. “Well, today as I was checking out for my appointment, I was standing right there in front of her and she starts talking to the nurse that’s checking me out and she misgendered me right in front of me.”

    The person continued, “I didn’t say anything because it was 10 o’clock in the morning and that’s early for me, it just didn’t seem worth it. Maybe I’ll confront her at my next appointment in six months if I remember.”

    Libs of TikTok
    @libsoftiktok

    This “man” had a gynecologist appointment to get birth control. “He’s” mad because he was misgendered for a female.

    The party of science wants us to believe this is a male and disregard biology.

    https://twitter.com/libsoftiktok/status/1519341209298214912?s=20&t=J07ETF-9-21uR9gp2QU5aw

    2. The party of science wants us to believe this is a male and disregard biology.

      Imagine being an OB-GYN and having to deal with these mentally ill people. Or worse, having a bio-male who thinks he’s a woman show up for an appointment

    1. Electricity just flows out of the wall like water, silly peasant. Nobody has to like, put it there, and stuff.

  25. My lender told me they got an alert today that the RE market is officially crashing. She said the alert came from their data analysis provider that keeps them updated daily on what’s going on in the RE market. I was surprised she was so honest and forthcoming. She also said they have plenty of buyers but many don’t want to buy right now and they’re bowing out. I live in the Salt Lake City metro area in Utah. She said they’ve been watching the reports showing demand slowing down but the alert they received today said the market is crashing. She said ‘today’ as if their data provider hasn’t made it official until … today. She repeated it 3 times while I was talking to her on the phone. She didn’t provide any specifics and apologized because it’s a risky time to buy. She also said plan on rates going higher and anticipate 1% higher by July. She told me the rates available today are 5.5% to 5.75%.

    2. “She also said they have plenty of buyers but many don’t want to buy right now and they’re bowing out.”

      She has plenty of borrowers, not buyers. “She” is a lender. These are bottom of the barrel types no different than the rest of the bottom of the barrel borrowers over the last 15 years or so.

      Sacramento, CA Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Demand Slows To A Trickle And Inventory Skyrockets

      https://www.movoto.com/ca/95864/market-trends/

      As one Sacramento broker explained, “There is no shortage of houses. I personally know speculators holding as many as 5 empty houses. They’re panicking.”

    3. “She didn’t provide any specifics and apologized because it’s a risky time to buy.”

      I’ve seen a few totally worn-out, eyesore type “contractor specials” that have sat for years finally being sold. There are also a couple of new development neighborhoods under construction that have workers swarming over them like ants now that Spring has arrived, but I expect that will peter-out well before Fall if Powell’s rate hikes become reality. I’m in fly-over country; no economic barometer here.

      1. new development neighborhoods

        It’ll be interesting to see what happens with The Farm in Poway. The developer cleared the old golf course and is prepping the soil.

    1. The Financial Times
      Opinion Bitcoin
      Why I’m still not taking crypto seriously
      It may be the latest political and financial obsession, but cryptocurrencies remain something with no inherent value
      Jemima Kelly
      Ben Hickey illustration of a confused clown trying to juggle crypto coins
      © Ben Hickey
      Jemima Kelly yesterday

      I keep on being told that it’s time I took crypto seriously. Crypto, goes the refrain, has “gone mainstream” — from BlackRock to UBS, every major investor is at the very least “exploring” it these days, while the big firms have tens of millions of retail investors each.

      Governments are bullish, too: Britain is taking a “forward-looking approach” with the chancellor hoping to turn the country into a global crypto hub, putting the UK right up there with El Salvador, where bitcoin is now legal tender. I can joke, but if I haven’t bought into crypto, then the joke is actually on me, or so people keep saying.

      And yet, try as I might to take it seriously, I keep on coming up against new ways to find crypto absurd. This week the comedy came courtesy of the nominatively determined Sam Bankman-Fried, CEO and founder of crypto exchange FTX, a company recently valued at $32bn. On Monday, Bankman-Fried, himself recently valued at $24bn, appeared on Bloomberg’s Odd Lots podcast and was asked to explain how a newish crypto phenomenon called yield-farming works.
      …

      1. Is it time to acknowledge that cryptocurrency is valuable primarily because it is systematically risky and too-big-to-fail?

        Wouldn’t central banks have to offer bailouts if it went to zero?

Comments are closed.