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Why Are First-Time Home Buyers Struggling To Make Mortgage Payments?

A report from the Mortgage Reports. “A new study indicates that first-time home buyers are having more mortgage delinquency problems than they have since 2010. Black Knight’s most recent Mortgage Monitor report had some alarming findings: Nearly 1% of mortgage loan originations in the first quarter of 2019 were delinquent six months after origination. That’s a 60% increase over the past two years and the highest since 2010.”

“The rise in early-stage purchase loan delinquencies was higher for first-time buyer loans than repeat buyer loans. So why are first-time home buyers struggling to make mortgage payments? According to Black Knight, it’s largely because credit scores are down, homes are more expensive, and debt-to-income ratios are rising as a result. ‘Many first-time buyers feel pressure to compete and try and win an offer on a home. This can cause issues later when finally having to deal with new debt and repayment liability,’ notes Andy Harris, president of Vantage Mortgage Group.”

From Market Watch. “The Federal Reserve has dramatically picked up the pace of its mortgage bond purchases in recent months. Portfolio managers at bond giant Pacific Investment Management Company argued that the Fed might want to consider changing its policy and reinvesting more incoming cash into mortgage bonds.”

“They also underscored that while the Fed has helped tame the funding market for Treasury debt, that financing costs for government-backed bonds recently had shot up to nearly 60 basis points above one-month Libor, or rates only seen in ‘the financial crisis.'”

“‘If the Fed reinvested in the mortgage market, it would go a long way toward alleviating the stress in MBS markets, and reduce rates to homeowners and would-be homeowners alike,’ the Pimco team wrote, using the shorthand for mortgage-backed securities.”

From News Channel 5 in Tennessee. “Even in a city with a hot housing market, a new study found a growing number of millennials say they would rather rent forever than buy a home. Realtor Elyse Wiser at Scout Realty in Nashville said results of the Apartment List study weren’t surprising. However, Wiser said she advises people that buying a home is a smart long-term investment, and young homebuyers may have more financial flexibility than they think.”

“‘The common myth is you need 20 percent of the purchase price for a down payment,’ said Wiser. ‘You can put down as little as 3 percent. Some of my clients qualify for down payment assistance programs and they can put down even less.'”

From Canyon News. “There have been a lot of articles published regarding the US real estate market and that brings about the question, which bubble is going to burst next? Experts seem to think that it could be Miami. Housing prices have plateaued for quite some time and they have also dropped 20 percent in South Beach. Some reporters are saying that it could be as much as 35 percent, with even higher figures in the Brickell area. Another concern is non-traditional loans, which could certainly have a huge part to play.”

From Curbed New York. “In a surprise to no one, New York state remains the east coast’s crown jewel of real estate with 18 of the country’s most exclusive zip codes, according to PropertyShark. But this year marked the abrupt rise and fall of serially pricey neighborhoods. Covering parts of Greenwich Village, SoHo, and Nolita, 10012 saw its median sale price dive 31 percent year-over-year. With a $1.643 million median sales price, the zip code slipped from its spot as the country’s 26 most expensive to its current post as the 69th priciest.”

The Santa Fe New Mexican. “Santa Fe native Tom Ford has lowered the price of the 20,662-acre Cerro Pelon Ranch in Santa Fe County that he has had on the market since 2016 to $48 million. The ranch, just south of Galisteo and west of N.M. 41, was originally listed at $75 million. Kevin Bobolsky, the agent representing the property, ‘could not comment,’ he said.”

The Maui News in Hawaii. “After reaching a historic high of $825,250 in August, median prices for single-family homes in Maui County have cooled somewhat, dipping in September and October to prices lower than they were at the same time last year. The median price for a single-family home was $732,000 in October, a 5.5 percent decrease from October 2018, according to a Realtors Association of Maui report. Meanwhile, the median price in September was $719,718, a 4.6 percent decrease from September 2018.”

The Los Angeles Times in California. “The price keeps plummeting for David Madden’s Bel-Air abode. The former AMC exec, who stepped down as the network’s programming chief over the summer, has relisted his stylish contemporary home for $6.5 million. That’s the ninth price cut since the property hit the market two years ago for $9.95 million, according to the Multiple Listing Service.”

This Post Has 160 Comments
  1. ‘Nearly 1% of mortgage loan originations in the first quarter of 2019 were delinquent six months after origination. That’s a 60% increase over the past two years and the highest since 2010’

    This is consistent with what I’m seeing watching foreclosure filings here in Arizona. All of a sudden, it’s 2017 or 2018 loans. It makes sense too because the further out on the credit envelope you get, the riskier the buyer, more prone to flop right out of the gate. Happened in 2005 too.

    1. At least it was cheaper than renting 🙂

      That line never gets old, LOL. These first-time loanowners deserve to loose everything.

      1. These first-time loanowners deserve to loose everything.

        Doesn’t that imply they have something of value to lose to begin with?

  2. ‘So why are first-time home buyers struggling to make mortgage payments? According to Black Knight, it’s largely because credit scores are down, homes are more expensive, and debt-to-income ratios are rising as a result’

    These companies that “report” this stuff are REIC dogs, crooked as hell. Debt to income ratios were repeated worked higher as LTV, FICO scores, everything was done to goose the market.

    Haven’t we seen this movie? They run out of buyers, scratch the subprime barrel again and load up some more. It’s more evidence that the reason so many US markets rolled over at near the same time was they simply had exhausted the buyer pool.

    1. ” … was they simply had exhau$ted the buyer pool. ”

      Gue$$ some folk$ must bee me$$age blind:

      U$ hou$ing starts rebound; building permit$ at highe$t level in over 12 year$

      CNBC | Reuters | Nov 19th 2019

      The data pointed to $trength in the hou$ing market amid lower mortgage rate$.

      Housing starts increased 3.8% to 1.314 million units last month, with single-family construction rising for a fifth straight month and activity in the volatile multi-family sector rebounding solidly, the Commerce Department said.

      The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed an increa$e in home completion$ and the $tock of homes under construction, which could help to ease a $upply $queeze that has plagued the housing market.

      “This is an important report for future homebuyer$ since one of the largest deterrents to entering the market right now is the lack of robu$t hou$ing option$,” said Bill Banfield, executive vice president of Capital Markets at Quicken Loans in Detroit.

      Chris.Thorn.in.yer.$ide.berg just put up a billboard:

      “NO unemployment, No HB.B ll $helter.$hack collap$e!”

    2. “It’s more evidence that the reason so many US markets rolled over at near the same time was they simply had exhausted the buyer pool.”

      I would like the term “enslaving” to your term “exhausted”, as in “It’s more evidence that the reason so many US markets rolled over at near the same time was they simply had exhausted the buyer pool while ENSLAVING its members.”

      There. More better.

      1. More better yet: “… so many US markets rolled over at near the same time was they simply had exhausted the buyer pool AFTER ENSLAVING its members.”

        There. A final there.

    3. “Haven’t we seen this movie?“

      – Yes, but the sequel is always worse than the original! ;).

      Debt at all levels is higher now. More demand pulled forward to keep the game going, leaving even larger air pocket. Symptom of continuing failed monetary policies: Extraordinary, unconventional, emergency policies continue: “Not QE”=QE4. Fed “balance” sheet =debt monetization. I can only imagine worse outcomes than the GFC when the SHTF this time.

  3. Follow on MarketWatch article.

    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-home-mortgage-disaster-is-ready-to-punish-housing-markets-2019-11-19

    “…Why worry that a few million delinquent cash-out refi mortgages could smash housing markets around the U.S.? The big threat is not so much the number of outstanding cash-out refis as it is the total dollar amount — $3.1 trillion in cash-out refis that originated in 2005-07. As the number of delinquent cash-out refis grows, mortgage services will have to face this menace…”

    If you factor in typical household loans of all types (student, loan, credit cards) along with typical home holding costs (1st mortgage, property tax, insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, etc) at what point does paying down all this debt become mathematically impossible in the borrowers lifetime? Maybe these borrowers will all live to be 125 years old?

    1. “If you factor in typical household loans of all types (student, loan, credit cards) along with typical home holding costs (1st mortgage, property tax, insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, etc) …”

      And don’t forget car payments. The show & tell folks tend to have that carrying cost as well.

    2. “… at what point does paying down all this debt become mathematically impossible in the borrowers lifetime?”

      It’s all about keeping hope alive. If the hopeless borrower is offered hope, all mathematics aside, he will reach for it.

      The efficient parasite does not kill the host. The efficient lender does not remove all hope to the slaved borrower.

      Removing hope effectively kills the host’s dream of someday ending his miserable life of debt slavery.

      1. “…Removing hope effectively kills the host’s dream of someday ending his miserable life…”

        An effective explanation, Mr. Banker.

        And the REIC are masters of the craft.

    3. If you factor in typical household loans of all types (student, loan, credit cards) along with typical home holding costs (1st mortgage, property tax, insurance, maintenance, HOA fees, etc) at what point does paying down all this debt become mathematically impossible in the borrowers lifetime?

      Don’t forget to add on all those monthly subscription services:

      Booming subscription services are building revenue for companies but sapping customers’ wallets
      Nov 18, 2019
      Kate Rooney
      CNBC

      Key points:

      -Seemingly small monthly charges are adding up as people “subscribe” instead of owning an asset outright. Analysts and financial planners say the popular revenue model could result in more personal debt and weigh on people’s ability to save.

      -“What that leaves us with is a lot of income that is spoken for in a person’s paycheck,” says Plaid CEO Zach Perret. “The percentage of free cash flow, or unencumbered income, is a lot lower now than we might have seen in the past.”

      -A $4 or $8 subscription for streaming or makeup might not sound high — but it adds up and might result in “accumulating consumer debt,” according to one financial advisor.

    4. One persons debt is another persons income I know what the debtors will do when they can’t pay but what about the lost income for like pension funds? will they get bailed by the US treasuries.

    1. I remember a banner on an apartment complex that I saw in 2007. It said something along the lines of, “Rent your home, own your life.” Not a bad reminder that you don’t really own much until you get rid of your mortgage. Until then, the bank owns you.

      1. Reminds me of an ancient proverb: “All you really own is the minimum necessary to survive a shipwreck.”

    2. I heard an interview many years ago with one of these conspiracy type guys. I used to think these guys were crazy but then I realized most of world history is driven by conspiracies. Anyway, the guy was saying that part of the plan to foment class warfare and eventual socialist revolution in the U.S. was to drive up home prices to the point where the vast majority of working people would not be able to afford to buy one. That every mechanism possible would be utilized to make housing unaffordable until the landless renting serfs would revolt against the land owners. Sounded crazy then…now not so much.

        1. Getting in bed with the CCP while holding a security clearance as a federal contractor is another matter. As is, the defamation case regarding his self-proclaimed authority on pedophilia set for trial on December 3rd.

    1. Just Wow.

      This guy Neumann makes Bernie Madoff look like a street corner thug in some banana republic.

      What I find endlessly fascinating is how the smart guys at the top of these giant corporations get suckered by these hucksters.

      I think Dilbert was right. All you need to be an important corporate executive is to be tall and have a nice head of hair.

      1. From a great New Yorker story on Neumann and the “Emperor Has No Clothes” moment:

        “There was always this assumption that, behind Adam, there was someone intelligent—a group of people—who were watching and making the practical, financial decisions,” he said. “That someone was taking care of it.” …

        “For the WeWorkers I spoke with, the turning point was at the company’s Global Summit, which took place in the Los Angeles Convention Center and featured appearances by the figure skater Adam Rippon and the twenty-one-year-old actor Jaden Smith. During Neumann’s keynote speech, he brought up his plan to create a floating WeWork, called WeSail, and to launch a WeBank. The architectural designer told me, “That made me very, very nervous.” One event was an onstage interview, conducted by Rebekah Neumann, with the Red Hot Chili Peppers front man, Anthony Kiedis. The event was mandatory, and thousands of WeWork employees filled the Convention Center and listened to Kiedis discuss his lifelong battle with heroin and cocaine addictions. The interview started to go off the rails. “At some point, it becomes clear that Rebekah has decided that she’s going to turn it into a sort of Dr. Phil session,” the designer recalled. She began pressing Kiedis on his recovery process and urging a solution. “She was asking, ‘Have you found your soul mate yet? You’ll be happy when you find your soul mate.’ ” Kiedis didn’t seem very receptive to the idea. The audience squirmed. “That was when it hit me,” the development worker said. There was no secret team of shadow executives. “There wasn’t anyone else running the company. It was just Adam and his wife.””

  4. South China Morning Post
    Major Chinese electronics maker Tunghsu seeks
    government …
    Major Chinese electronics maker Tunghsu seeks government lifeline after shock bond default as slowing economy leaves private firms cash- …
    6 hours ago

  5. New Arizona Development Bans Residents From Bringing Cars
    Developers of Tempe rental community aim to draw younger people with pedestrian-friendly design
    In a new development in Tempe, residents will get around by scooter, light rail and ride-sharing instead of in their own cars.
    In a new development in Tempe, Ariz., shown here in a rendering, residents will get around by scooter, light rail and ride-sharing instead of in their own cars.Photo: Hugo Render/Opticos Design Inc.
    Laura Kusisto (WSJ)
    Updated Nov. 19, 2019 12:30 pm ET
    A $140 million Arizona development is banning residents from bringing their own cars in favor of scooters, bikes and ride-sharing, testing demand for a new type of walkable neighborhood.
    The 1,000-person rental community, which broke ground this month in Tempe, won’t allow residents to park cars on site or in the surrounding area as a term of their leases. The founders say it will be the first of its kind in the U.S.

    1. “Developers of Tempe rental community aim to draw younger people with pedestrian-friendly design”

      It’ll be alright until the government brings in the Section 8 folks.

    2. Sounds like a type of place I’d like to live in. Could send my son out to ride his bike without fear of some massive SUV running him over in McMansion-ville.

      1. It’ll be interesting to see how those forms of “mobility” work out when the temps get to 110 deg. F.

        1. In all honesty, this won’t work unless it is on a rail line. There is a complex just adjacent to the complex in our ownership unit. They convinced the city planners to dramatically have less parking because of “Trax” (eg light rail). But the reality is that now all the residents just are clogging up the side streets trying to find parking because you can’t take an entire city that was built around vehicles and reverse that in one fell swoop with a complex.

          I am all for car-less solutions, but it’s going to be a while. In my opinion the best form of transportation is walking first, and then an electric scooter (because it folds and is easy to store/carry, etc.).

      1. “Prison wardens don’t come cheap.”

        Judging by the article I read earlier, it was as simple as scheduling two slugs to work grave shift that night. The type who tend to sleep on duty, not do their checks, Etc.

        1. Early on there were reports that there was screaming coming from that cell for as much as a few hours. Those reports stopped. I think he may not only have been killed but forced to reveal where he hid the black mail evidence.

          1. Early on there were reports that there was screaming coming from that cell for as much as a few hours.

            Which is why I don’t think anybody is going to believe the simple incompetence/negligence narrative. The guards must know enough that they will need to disappear. They are already on “suicide watch” from what I’ve heard.

      2. “Prison wardens don’t come cheap.”

        Many of the bureaus within the Dept of the Interior are muddling along today on starvation budgets, slowly eating themselves. As their talent retires they are replaced in fewer numbers by unskilled and overworked employees, led by inept managers and controlled from far away by SES feminists who produce voluminous glowing reports that few read beyond the executive summary. Just like the EPA, these bureaus mean little to the deep-state and Wall street. The comedian was right…bless his soul.

  6. I recently subscribed to the e-version of this paper to support their journalism:

    Masked Intruders Set Fire to Hong Kong Epoch Times Printing Press
    By Eva Fu
    November 19, 2019

    ‘Four masked intruders dressed in black set fire to the printing press of the Hong Kong edition of The Epoch Times in the early hours of Nov. 19, marking the fourth attack on the facility since its opening more than a decade ago. The attack is believed to be the latest instance of efforts by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to silence The Epoch Times.’

    https://www.theepochtimes.com/masked-intruders-set-fire-to-hong-kong-epoch-times-printing-press_3150829.html

    1. “The attack is believed to be the latest effort by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) to silence The Epoch Times.”

      That is scary, almost as scary as my posting a comment below about a new Mustang EV looking more like a Prius than a Mustang and then having Prius sidebar advertisements show up on my search page 5 minutes later.

        1. The only thing scaring me is being forced to use Covered CA this year and it having financial information that I did not submit.

        2. I am sorry.

          Upon further review of my own GD brain I searched Prius to get a look and make sure it looked like the new Mustang EV before my post here.

          So that ad came from my own search.

          I apologize to Ben and this blog for saying it came from, here it did not.

  7. The “win the house” trope, yet again.

    In what universe is going several hundred thousand dollars in debt “winning” anything?

    Realtors need to be shoved into a wood chipper, feet first.

  8. “‘The common myth is you need 20 percent of the purchase price for a down payment,’ said Wiser. ‘You can put down as little as 3 percent. Some of my clients qualify for down payment assistance programs and they can put down even less.’”

    No, the common myth is that buying a shack is the best way to build wealth over time. So not so. Wiser’s “clients” are going to learn the hard way there’s nothing more expensive than regret when you sign on the dotted line for overpriced shacks you’ll never own.

  9. Home Depot cheapo with a well at 15410 Harrow Lane is back on the market for a third time. Realtor’s notes claim current homeowners put in approximately $95K in “upgrades” to the home, including the 14′ x 48′ painted wood-grain embossed aluminum patio cover with plastic caps, plus the $62K owned solar system since their $1.4M purchase in July 2016. Attempt to pass on those costs appears to be failing.

  10. “The rise in early-stage purchase loan delinquencies…”

    Is that like early-stage cancer?

  11. After reaching a historic high of $825,250 in August, median prices for single-family homes in Maui County have cooled somewhat, dipping in September and October to prices lower than they were at the same time last year

    I took a looksie at Maui County on wikipedia. Other than the .gov jobs, all the other employers were in the hospitality and retail sectors. Sure sounds like the ideal demographics for 800K shacks.

    1. It looks like they put a lot of effort into making this a real competitor:

      I was a Mustang guy before AWD changed my life in the 90s. On paper that looks like an OK competitor to the Model Y, especially with the $7500(?) discount. To a Mustang guy it looks like an abomination, though.

        1. Anachronistic, compensating Mustang guys are not who this vehicle was built for.

          So why not just make it look like something new and interesting. Why cover it in bogus Mustang styling cues? Seems to me that’s exactly who it was built for. Some clueless family guy who always wanted a Mustang and lately wanted a Tesla and thinks he can get both in one car. With styling like that there is a serious risk of it being the next Aztek and poor wannabe family guy will never live it down.

          1. So why not just make it look like something new and interesting.

            Because that was what everyone did before. You know, the ones no one bought.

            Car guys with their panties in a knot over this need to get over it. The industry as a whole is moving in this direction, and they’re the ones getting left behind. Go join the rest of them on Woodward Avenue every August, eating Viagra and clinging to a past that’s never coming back.

          2. clinging to a past that’s never coming back

            It’s not exactly clear here what you are so angry about this early in the day. What’s wrong with hoping for something new and interesting?

          3. Lol. However I think that electric cars have really only one clear advantage over ICE cars and that is acceleration . Thus it makes sense to have a vehicle for people who want speed. The green virtue signaling people do not care about that they are going 55 in the passing Lane on 75 mile an hour roads driving Prius vehicles.

          4. So why not just make it look like something new and interesting.

            Because that was what everyone did before. You know, the ones no one bought.

            Wrong. I was comparing to Tesla. At least they have an original look even if it’s ugly. They’re not trying to piggyback off of something they are not.

            Car guys with their panties in a knot over this need to get over it. The industry as a whole is moving in this direction, and they’re the ones getting left behind. Go join the rest of them on Woodward Avenue every August, eating Viagra and clinging to a past that’s never coming back.

            WTF are you talking about? Old school car guys just appreciate history and would prefer it not be wasted on some wannabe-Tesla that’s not as good as a Tesla. If you’re going to use the legacy make it better than a Tesla. And if you can’t make it better than a Tesla then do something else.

          1. “Then who?”

            Climate Change guys who don’t realize…

            More Electric Cars Mean More Coal And Natural Gas

            Jan 24, 2018,

            But there’s much more to the electric car story than what you might be hearing. The anti-fossil-fuel business tends to forget and/or ignore the fact that electric cars are, obviously, just that … powered by electricity, a secondary energy source that is mostly generated by the combustion of coal and natural gas both here in the U.S. and around the world.

            Electric cars often need an entire night to recharge at home, and they can “increase a house’s power consumption by 50% or more,” The New York Times reported in 2013. A fellow FORBES contributor notes, “Adding an electric car on the grid is equivalent in some cases to adding three houses.”

            https://www.forbes.com/sites/judeclemente/2018/01/24/more-electric-vehicles-mean-more-coal-and-natural-gas/

          2. No, consumers who are abandoning internal combustion engines. They’re over a century old now, and they’re obsolete.

          3. ‘They’re over a century old now, and they’re obsolete’

            This is some odd logic. How about ball-bearings? Or gears? This is how the weworks thing spread. “People shouldn’t be making their own grilled cheese sandwiches, there’s a truck for that!”

      1. Spec-wise it is far superior to the iPace or even the Audi eTron. I hope Ford does well with this because it looks like they are really producing a serious competitor. A lot of people won’t buy a Tesla EV, but if it were a Ford Mustang, then I think they might take a look.

        I would still take a Y over the Mustang for lots of reasons (autopilot, super charging network, landscape center screen, battery efficiency). But the $7500 that Ford will still have and which Tesla will lose here in a month is a big chunk of change. Especially when you stack on state incentives, like Colorado for $2500.

        1. And this is a good thing, because it gives manufacturers the opportunity to take those first steps into the market, to see what works and what doesn’t, what consumers like and don’t like. The the evolution of the technology continues onward from there.

          There’s room in this market for multiple players, and healthy competition among them is the best possible outcome.

          1. Agreed. The big players will enter into the market and it looks like Ford is poised to do well, same with VW. I think Toyota and BMW are in for rude awakenings and could lose massive market share as they are falling behind quickly despite being in the forefront of the transition (Toyota with Prius and BMW with i3).

        2. A lot of people won’t buy a Tesla EV, but if it were a Ford Mustang, then I think they might take a look.

          If it were a Mustang yeah. But don’t put the Mustang name on an compact SUV. Do something better.

          I would still take a Y over the Mustang for lots of reasons

          Me too. No matter what it’s called. I would just rather it was called something else OR was actually a Mustang with an electric drivetrain that outruns P100Ds.

        3. Neither the .50 caliber machine nor the ICE is obsolete. They both continue to get the job done. Now, some day electric vehicles maybe able to compete on price and ease of refueling but we are not there yet. Now, there are projects in the not to distant future it will occur but it has not happened. Most likely it will occur but then again it could be like the flying car.

          1. some day electric vehicles maybe able to compete on price and ease of refueling but we are not there yet

            That someday is approaching very fast. Most studies show price parity at 2025. But price parity is already here if you are a high-mileage driver (such as a police officer or a ride-share car) because the fuel cost savings are magnified by the higher-than-average miles driven per year.

            As for ease of refueling, it’s nice to be able to refuel at my apartment when I am asleep.

          2. price parity is already here if you are a high-mileage driver

            Sorry, price per mile isn’t a factor of time.

          3. Maybe not so fast:

            If it takes 10 years instead of 5 for price parity to be achieved, so be it. However, credible reports are out that Tesla is already below $100/kWh for their battery. Audi has contracts for $114/kWh, which is already way below the $175-$300/kWh given in this article. There are some vehicle manufacturers who are way ahead and those that have not prepared for the transition may get crushed. It’s a tricky dance because legacy automakers don’t want to move to quick because they risk cannibalizing their profits. Remember, it was Kodak that first introduced the digital camera, but they couldn’t shift away from their profitable business and by the time the started to do so they were already so far behind that they had already lost.

      2. To a Mustang guy

        As it does to a Firebird guy. Trying to follow the crazy may be suicidal for these guys. Maybe not.

    2. Tesla deserves credit for leading the way in bringing zero emission to this particular segment of the automotive market, where people want to buy them because they are innovative, exciting products.

      Everyone is going to win from the competition, going forward.

      1. in bringing zero emission

        I’m sorry, but this terminology is just BS. They are not “zero-emission”! You just moved the emissions to someone else’s back yard….

        …and then there’s all the mining for rare earth minerals and the ecological damage that causes…in someone _else’s_ back yard.

        1. They are not “zero-emission”!

          Tailpipe emissions. Close your garage and run a gas car and you’ll die. Not with an EV. Add tons of gas cars on 2-dimensional roads in a 3-dimensional housing world and you’re essentially doing the same thing, gassing yourself, as China, India, and some large urban areas have discovered.

          1. Exactly. The petrol isn’t getting dumped into the generators at the power plant, and all of that smog over L.A. isn’t coming from there.

            Fossil fuel dependency is not going to be an easy or fast problem to solve, but you have to start somewhere, and it might as well be with ground transportation, as I doubt we’re going to get electric passenger planes any time soon.

          2. Tailpipe emissions don’t really matter so much in rural areas, which is one reason why there is a disconnect and almost a politicized nature of EVs between red/blue areas. In sparsely populated areas the pollution from tailpipes (sulfur, carbon monoxide, NOx, PM 2.5, PM 10, CO2, hydrocarbons) are negligible.

            Meanwhile, my hometown area and another city to the north is the worst polluting per capita in the nation (and we’re surrounded by mountains):

            https://www.sltrib.com/news/2019/11/18/provo-is-average-nations/

          3. Your post is logically inconsistent. In the three dimensional world the coal fired plant is putting at least as much pollution into the air as the cars. In fact with the newest vehicles the coal plant puts out more than the vehicles due to the advanced pollution controls.

        2. In the three dimensional world the coal fired plant is putting at least as much pollution into the air as the cars.

          First of all, it’s not. We’ve been over this many, many times. But even if it were (again, it’s not even close), the pollution concentration is what we are talking about. Coal fired plants (which are closing, by the way) are not located right in dense urban areas. It’s the same reason why we have plumbing to move human waste elsewhere. It’s also the reason why we have trash collection. Even if there was no reduction in CO2 and other pollution (again, there is a massive reduction which you will never accept), it does matter where this pollution is generated. And it is much healthier to have this pollution generated at a remote power facility, just like it makes sense to move human trash to landfills.

          1. even if it were (again, it’s not even close)

            Same as before, the EV is less energy efficient, significantly. The other thing always ignored is that a 5,000 EV just to move one little human is absurdly wasteful, no matter how efficiently that energy is wasted.

            Conservation would be a good idea, not always looking for bigger, more expensive ways to waste energy.

          2. Same as before

            Sure. If I showed you the long math again you would go quiet for a while and then come back here with the same BS. I’m beginning to get it that having an argument with someone on the internet with an agenda is useless.

          3. The overall cost of a Tesla is 38% higher than that of an equivalent fossil fuel powered sedan. That’s the hard reality math.

            Now back to housing.

            Folly Beach, SC Housing Prices Crater 13% YOY As Charleston Housing Market Tanks

            https://www.zillow.com/folly-beach-sc-29439/home-values/

            *Select price from dropdown menu on first chart

            God Bless President Donald J. Trump And God Bless America!

        1. $143M profit last quarter even among massive capital investment. Doesn’t look like malinvestment to me. Goalposts keep getting moved.

          1. $143M profit last quarter

            Deception. Lost $700M in Q1 and $400M in Q2.

            Pretty darn close to a $1B loss so far this year alone.

            Debt increased by Billions.

          2. LOL, your math is a little bit like adding up all the debt that an MD incurred in medical school and looking at the 1st year of his salary revenue and saying, “Well, it looks like this doctor lost $50k for every patient I saw.”

            Capital investments and R&D take time to pay off, which they are now doing bigly.

          3. time to pay off

            My math? They lost a billion already this year and went billions deeper in debt. They are not paying down and they are not making a profit. Showing a small profit on Wednesday and a huge loss on Monday and Tuesday is not a success as you proclaim.

    3. Speaking of cars, I got an email titled:

      “Do you have equity in your car?”

      Inside the email:

      “having positive equity in your car can lead to better loan terms should you choose to refinance.”

      I have plenty of equity in my car, because I don’t have a loan on it and I intend to keep it that way.

  12. Thoughts on Netflix’s “World War II In Colour”? Binge-watched History Channel’s “Hunting Hitler” last Thanksgiving. Need something for this year.

    1. “Need something for this year.”

      Have you done HBO’s Chernobyl mini-series? It’s five episodes, I believe, and it’s a riveting story!

      1. Good I do not care if the world grows less than 3 percent if we can grow 2 percent without substantial immigration. That situation leads to a higher standard of living for average Americans. Exporting our jobs to keep the world going is not a policy I support.

        1. if we can grow 2 percent without substantial immigration.

          Only if inflation is less than 2% though, right?

          1. GDP figures adjust for inflation. Now if you include the deflator 2 percent growth with 2 percent inflation is 4 percent nominal growth. Hence the reason if you have 23 trillion dollars in national debt you can run a $920 billion dollar debt without making a nation’s debt to GDP ratio worse.

          2. GDP figures adjust for inflation.

            I figured you were referring to real GDP, not nominal GDP. Just checking!

            Also, this is why housing doesn’t have to go down to become more affordable. It can stagnate or go sideways if the Fed’s 2% inflation target is met.

    1. The Financial Times
      Global trade
      China’s trade dominance dealt a blow after US gains
      Shift has raised prospect that Beijing has reached the limits of its export domination
      Chinese shipping containers are stored beside a US flag after they were unloaded at the Port of Los Angeles in Long Beach, California on May 14, 2019. – Global markets remain on red alert over a trade war between the two superpowers China and the US, that most observers warn could shatter global economic growth, and hurt demand for commodities like oil. (Photo by Mark RALSTON / AFP)MARK RALSTON/AFP/Getty Images
      In the first half of 2018 China exported more than the US to 174 countries, while the US was the larger goods supplier to just 51, according to analysis of IMF data © AFP
      Steve Johnson yesterday

      Analysts are tentatively calling it “peak China”. The country’s position as the leading global exporter for the past two decades has been dealt a blow after it lost ground to the US in the first six months of this year.

      America became the bigger supplier out of the two superpowers to eight countries over the first half, including France, Austria, Zimbabwe and Lebanon. China added just three entries to the list of countries where its exports eclipse the US: Bhutan, Luxembourg and Venezuela.

      The shift has raised the prospect that China has reached the limits of its global trade domination, allowing others, including the US and India, to increase their shares.

      1. observers warn could shatter global economic growth

        A few years ago we were told that China growth was pretty much all of Global Growth, and it was based on a dangerously enormous pile of debt. I’m not convinced that it was a good thing overall, but I’m not a banker.

        1. Allowing the globalists to offshore our manufacturing base to China wasn’t such a hot idea, either. If relations between the U.S. and China turn hostile, the Chinese always have the option of expropriating all the U.S.-owned factors built there since the ’90s.

          1. As far as I know foreigners don’t generally “own” a factory in China. Rather, they must contract with local factory owners (Chinese).

            Take Apple. They own zero factories in China. Instead, they contract to Taiwanese/Chinese Foxconn.

            Ford? Their facilities are either fully or partially owned by Chang’an, a Chinese State Owned Enterprise.

            The People’s Republic of China is a Marxist-Leninist state, thus they use the administrative state to ensure means of production are owned domestically.

            The irony here is the majority of people holding the bag when these factories see declining orders will be Chinese people and Chinese State Owned Banks, not the evil American Imperialist Capitalist Dogs.

          2. As far as I know foreigners don’t generally “own” a factory in China.

            Tesla has the first fully-foreign owned car plant in China. I think they only allowed this because they want to speed the adoption away from gas cars to EVs because the pollution is a major risk to the stability of their communist system, it being one of the few things that risks inciting mass protests against the CCP.

            Nevertheless, I am sure China could nationalize the plant if they wanted to just like Venezuela, or like Argentina did with YPF, a Spanish-owned oil firm.

          3. fully-foreign owned car plant in China

            Built with a loan from……the Chinese!

            All your car plant belong to us.

  13. Go Bears! Hangry ursines must be Fed.

    The Financial Times
    US equities
    Short sellers get early holiday gift from US retail sell-off
    Speculators gained $507m in a single day after betting on weak shopping season
    A customer counts her money while waiting in line to check out at a Target store on the shopping day dubbed “Black Friday” in Torrington, Connecticut November 25, 2011. The U.S. holiday shopping season was in full-swing on Thursday, with retailers hoping consumers will spend big despite worries about the fragile economy and their own precarious finances.To narrow the gap in store hours with rivals, discounter Target Corp electronics chain Best Buy and department store chains Macy’s Inc and Kohl’s Corp will open at midnight, their earliest starts ever.
    REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi (UNITED STATES – Tags: BUSINESS)
    Short sellers now have $7.8bn of outstanding bets against retailers, up $121m this month in the lead-up to the release of third-quarter earnings reports © Reuters
    Jennifer Ablan and Alistair Gray in New York yesterday

    Short sellers increased their bets against some of the biggest names in US retail ahead of the holiday season — and their bearish bets already appeared to be paying off after some early earnings figures triggered a market sell-off.

    Short sellers, who profit when a stock drops in price, enjoyed a $507m paper profit on retail shares on Tuesday alone, according to S3, a financial analytics and technology firm. Sharp declines in the department store chains Macy’s and Kohl’s contributed significantly to the total.

    S3 said short sellers now have $7.8bn of outstanding bets against retailers, up $121m this month in the lead-up to the release of third-quarter earnings reports and the holiday shopping season that begins after Thanksgiving next week.

  14. No “pent-up demand” for $500,000 starter homes happening here:

    “In the Denver metro area, only 20 percent of millennial renters are on track to save enough money for a 10-percent down payment within the next five years, according to ApartmentList. Twelve percent of millennial renters in Denver expect they’ll continue renting for life.”

    https://www.thedenverchannel.com/news/local-news/80-of-millennial-renters-in-denver-not-on-track-to-buy-home

    1. “”When you’re spending your money on restaurants, and trips and experiences and things like that, it’s tough to have the money to put down on these sorts of assets,” he said.”

      Does this guy actually believe the issue with buying a $450,000 house is the fact the kids eat out sometimes?

      And is a house at such an inflated cost actually an “asset”?

      1. Many boomers ate Mac and cheese with hotdogs with jello for dessert to afford a house. It is not all the millennials fault but yes their spending habits do matter. I have seen so many articles by millennials attacking boomers for cheap coffee, Budweiser for beer and laughing at them for eating inexpensive processed food. Now I have never shared my generation’s willingness to willingness to eat things like frozen fish sticks over wild Alaskan salmon to own a 4000 sq. Ft home but millennials often act like five year olds in a toy store when asked to make a choice. No you cannot afford champagne on a beer budget and expensive housing does mean sacrifices.

        1. Boomers are broke for the very reason they couldn’t afford to pay a grossly inflated price for a rapidly depreciating asset. But they borrowed the money anyways.

          Oooph.

          Laguna Hills, CA Housing Prices Crater 15% YOY As Los Angeles Area Housing Market Tanks

          https://www.zillow.com/laguna-hills-ca/home-values/

          *Select sale price from dropdown menu on first chart

  15. I think this is a big story and we should watch it, but it’s still developing. That plot of cash-out refis as a percentage of all refis is criminally misleading for 2018. It uses the Q4 2018 data point for the entire year of 2018.

    Now if the donks kept that trend going into 2019, then I agree ish is gonna hit the fan. It’s November, how long we gotta wait to see that data? This is really interesting…

    1. And I’m not sure how including photos of Target and Panera Bread communicate the unique desirability of 48009.

      I suppose it’s like adding 8s to the number, but for millennials. Target and Panera pair excellent with millennial grey paint. Only need to add a Starbucks pic.

      1. The irony is that the only Panera in town pulled up stakes and left for Royal Oak this year. That Target is actually on Telegraph Road in Bloomfield Hills. At least they got the Y correct.

        Starbucks is right across the street from where they used to be.

    2. The subway tile with that countertop is comical. Otherwise, it’s a cute house with nice architectural details.

  16. Gold and silver are down, thanks to the concerted manipulation and naked short selling by the Fed’s bullion banker accomplices, but gold and silver mining stocks are up. Hmm…looks like more and more investors are seeing right through the manipulation and heading for safe haven ahead of the bust of the central bankers’ Everything Bubble .

  17. You cannot have true market capitalism when you have faulty lending in terms of debt and credit given.

    All this credit amounts to debt to support monopoly or speculation prices.

    Than you add to that the medical cartel price fixing monopoly that forces people
    to pay high prices, than most prices are fake . This isn’t free market capitalism. People should of rejected the rigged economy, but had no choice with Obama Care.

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